Is this public school Oxford man Brown’s successor?
March 9th, 2008
Has Gord anointed Balls as the next Labour leader?
After more than a decade of serving under the ex-public school boy and Oxford graduate, Tony Blair, it’s suggested this morning that Gord has decided that Labour’s next leader should be Ed Balls - who went to a £10,000 a year public school as a day pupil and then onto Oxford.
According to Iain Martin in the Sunday Telegraph Brown is planning to hand-over to his former top aide and now the Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families. This won’t happen immediately but the thinking is that the change-over should take place a couple of years after the next election which the Labour leadership is said to be now more confident of winning.
Martin notes: “….Be clear: Project Balls rolls on and gathers speed. In fact, the Schools Secretary’s ambition and the powerplays of his contemporaries in the Cabinet are the true subtext to Budget week…When the manoeuvring of Mr Balls is discussed in government circles, eyebrows are raised at his presumption that he will become PM, and discontent stirs. “Ed is massively ambitious, very talented and not a man prone to self-doubt,” says a friend…”
An intriguing element of Labour going for someone with a privileged educational background is is that this is that this is an area where it believes that David Cameron and the favourite to take the London Mayoralty, Boris Johnson, are vulnerable. All the talk at Labour’s spring conference last week was about the “Tory Toffs”.
There’s little doubt that Balls has benefited from Brown’s “assisted places scheme” since he became an MP less than three years ago. Gord was pushing Balls for a cabinet within a year of the last election although the ex-advisor had to wait until Brown got the top job before this came about.
If the leader is to be Balls then for all his educational background he badly need elocution lessons and advice on the way he presents himself. When it comes to speeches and interviews he is appalling and comes over very badly. This is on top of his arrogant and aggressive style which are not suited to television, the commons chamber or the conference hall. He might have been a great back-room boy but he has yet to master the art of compelling oral communication.
There have been betting markets on Labour’s next leader but I cannot see one at the moment.
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“OH GOD NO! ” - Labour supporters.
I bet
Would anyone want someone called Ed Balls to be our Prime Minister?
I’ve seen him on numerous TV appearances and in the Commons and I have to say he is certainly not leadership quality.
I suppose it’s now what you know, it’s who you know.
Wonderful - a thread I can truly enjoy! I don’t doubt for one second Brown would prefer to see Balls succeed him, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. I’ve been looking for a market this week (to no avail) to back Ed Miliband. I agree with much of the Telegraph piece and I don’t think David Miliband will stand.
There are too many people that dislike Balls to allow him to walk this. First of all he’s seen as pure poison by many Blairites for his role in the final years of Blair. Secondly he’s a poor communicator. And third is that he will face far stronger opposition than Brown received when running for leadership. Balls is fearful of Jon Cruddas who would take out a lot of potential union and leftish. John Denham who is a relaxed and amiable media performer who leaves Balls floundering when their communications skills are compared.
The fact is that Brown has a hell of a lot of work to do to win the next election. An overall majority is not looking likely. If Brown loses the next election then party members are hardly going to pay great attention to who he wants to succeed him - Cruddas in this context might be one to follow. Secondly, whenever there is a leadership contest members will be looking for a real choice and a debate. Most of us realise now that this coronation business was a disaster and Balls is by no means ever likely to build up the stature to drive away potential rivals.
I just can’t see Balls being the final choice. Ed Miliband is where my money would go with a saver on Cruddas.
3. Very interesting and I do agree. I can see Ed Miliband being a Prime Minister but I think we’ll have a few Tory governments before that happens.
Balls is definitely a poor communicator, I recall he wrote a speech for Gordon Brown once which was utter..balls.
As is alluded to in the post and comments you can’t tell who will be the next labour leader will be until you know what post they will be advetising for. 1. Leader of the opposition with rebuilding work to do 2. mid term prime minister who will be fighting for a fifth term ( lord help us)
If its option 1 then i would have though a fat pope will follow a thin pope. I’d put a tenner on Caroline Flint. safe seat, fiesty, USP of first woman leader for 20 years, looks old labour enough to appeal to core vote but would look the part in the south as well. I could see her up against a osh prime minister and it playing well.
If its option 2 then who in there right mind would want the job for a few years only to know there have ben no five term governments in democratic history in britain ? No bright spark will want to preside over defeat. I’d have thought a jack straw figure who knew it would be his last job mh do with dignity.
And i the incredible situation where the polls should labour on concourse to win a 5th term then why would brown quit? he’d only be or years in and isn’t that old? health would be the only reason i could see.
Interesting piece, Mike, but I have 2 problems with the suggestion:
a) Balls simply is not (and will not be) leadership material. Labour’s next leader is likely to come to the job as Leader of the Opposition (in my book), and the party will be looking for someone to restore their electoral fortunes. Balls is not that man.
b) If Labour do manage to win again next time, I just can’t see Brown wanting to handover 2 years after the next election. After a decade of brooding and plotting, he will cling on for as long as he can.
Also Mike’s main point about Ed Balls is interesting - I had no idea he went to a 10k a year private school! The Milibands were both comprehensive boys.
Private schooling ( or looking like a private school sterotype more accurately) is a problem for tories because it confirms prejudice. Its not a problem for labour people because its counter intuitive. Look what being ordinary did for John Major
Off the top of my head I would price up the following as next Labour leader (and no I’m not taking bets!)Goodness knows what the overround is.
David Miliband 3/1
Ed Miliband 9/2
Jack Straw 6/1
James Purnell 8/1
Jon Cruddas 10/1
Ed Balls 12/1
Alan Johnson 14/1
Yvette Cooper 14/1
Caroline Flint before her remarks on council housing tenants 16/1 - afterwards 33/1
8. I don’t think it’s a massive problem in for the public if Labour has a privately educated leader, but if your party’s line of attack against Cameron is that he’s part of a priviliged elite then that message would be better coming from someone other than Balls. Plus education is still a big issue for the Labour members that would vote in a contest and I could see it playing badly for him.
Off the topic slightly, have there been any defections recently? I’ve not heard about any for ages.
OT (and predicted in the last thread):
Obama wins his proxy fight with McCain
http://tinyurl.com/qpwjp
…in Illinois’ phallic and hitherto Republican-leaning 14th District:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IL14_109.gif
Gets Obama a superdelegate, and demonstrates his coattail powers to the other undecideds.
Speculation about who the next Labour leader will be is about as useful as the speculation was about who would succeed Thatcher - during the 1980s very many names came and went as likely candidates - but until it gets to the crunch time it’s too difficult to say.
Enoch Powell was not, imho, merely articulating what a lot of people were thinking / concerned about; he was actively and actually changing what people thought and how they acted, and ratcheted up the level at which people overtly exploited and exacerbated social divisions.
In other words, he was a nasty racist who made things worse.
Perhaps he was far too clever for his own good.
Incidentally, I believe that the local newspapers investigated the claims in his speech at the time, and found that there was no street matching the description of the one he had mentioned. The little old lady may well have been apocryphal, and Powell may have been hoaxed with fake information.
9. its interstin that you mention his wife in the bettin. havin seen hem operate locally close up shes (a) brighter than him (b) a better constituiency MP. However she loks gaunt on TV ad has a shrill voice. With a make over she’d be interesting. I await to see ow she performs at the treasury and if the HIP fiasco was a one off.
Regarding Flint. the housing stuff will be forgotten. her best chance is after a crushing defeat. Don Valley would survive anthing but melt down and if the party felt the need to really roll the ice and hope for a 6.
I’d thought jackie smith at one poin bu the Home offic is such a black hole im not sure any one really survives it.
I keep thinking that there are parallels between Obama 2008 and Dukakis 1988. Dukakis was way ahead in the opinion polls for a substantial time in the summer and autumn, and it was only towards the end of the campaign that George Bush (snr) went ahead. Dukakis’s campaign was ultimately derailed by the perception that he was soft on crime.
I fear / believe / speculate that Obama’s campaign will be destroyed by accusations that he is left wing / inexperienced / unreliable / a windbag / devoid of policies / erratic / iritable / too black / too white / a coconut / not up to it.
Question: What sort of position was Dukakis in the opinion polls (Dukakis v. Bush) at this stage (Feb/March)? I reckon that Obama’s hypothetical lead against McCain is virtually meaningless at this stage.
Ed Balls!!!! Surely not!
Brown may be delusional if he thinks Balls would be a vote winner, but I would think most Labour Party members would realise what a bad choice he would be. He is just so bad on TV.
I personally find him a bit… creepy.
And anyway, I don’t think Labour will win the next election, so unless Brown steps down between now and May 2010 then Balls would have to wait a few more years until he could become PM.
Would he have the patience to spend 4 years as the Leader of the Opposition? Or does he belive he should go straight into the role of PM?
“a privileged educational background is is that this is that this is an area where it believes that David Cameron and the favourite to take the London Mayoralty, Boris Johnson, are vulnerable. All the talk at Labour’s spring conference last week was about the “Tory Toffs”.”
I’d thought that this class envy button was Labour’s equivalent of a ‘core vote’ strategy, and a mark of desperation. But you say they actually think it has legs? Barking.
Just cacthing up with the intriguing debate on Enoch last night
(FWIW I think he was a rather tragic figure: brilliant and brave, yet self-destructively ambitious; the rivers of blood speech was dangerous, unsavoury and irresponsible in the extreme; he must have known that, but thought the groundswell of support would make up for it. Heath was right to sack him..)
Anyway setting Enoch aside: will his prediction come true? Britain racked by ethnic strife?
BBC World is holding a series of debates at the moment: the Doha Debates, held in Qatar.
I watched the latest last night: it was centred on Muslim passivity in the face of Islamism. They had some very articulate Muslims from around the world talking about the problem - to a mainly Muslim and notably educated audience.
Why is this important? Because every speaker, from both sides, agreed that the UK was a special case, so much so it should be left out of the debate. The UK they thought, was special because this was one country where the extremists really had been allowed to poison a whole community, the UK was one place where Islamist violence was bound to get worse thereby.
The only other country excluded for being similarly unrepresentative was Saudi Arabia, with its Wahhabis.
The rest of the world, the debate concluded, had a chance of defeating Islamism. But the UK and Saudi? Nope.
This was quite disheartening, I can tell you, seeing as it came from a neutral yet well-informed Arab/Muslim debate held in the Middle East.
What the F has happened in Britain? One can only conclude that Britain’s peculiarly mindless form of lefty multiculturalism, combined with the national self-loathing we see in certain lefty circles (yes, Lib Dem traitors like Andrew Duff included, the man who wants to see the English defeated) - this marriage of unholies has created the perfect breeding ground for Islamist terror and radicalism.
Well done the British left. Perhaps you all liked Enoch secretly, and were just trying to fulfill his prophecies.
The name that’s being missed out who i think is the obvious choice is John Denham. Good at the despatch box, showed principles over Iraq, experienced but not associated with any major Balls ups.
Ed Balls? He would surely make Iain Duncan Smith look like Barack Obama!
Incidentally, regarding Illinois 14. It’s a big sign now the Democrats have won it, as the Democratic candidate Bill Foster had got caught on camera saying “There’s no situation you can’t improve by throwing money at it” - and the clip has been played round and round on local TV ads. To Chicago suburbanites whose main priorities have historically been tax cuts, tax cuts and tax cuts it’s amazing this didn’t kill his campaign. That he surmounted this, and the huge power of incumbency for the GOP, is a very big clue what could happen in November.
I said after both Iowa and New Hampshire that I thought Obama would lead a Democratic realignment in the US over the next couple of years. I stand by that.
I saw enouch once at the Union at university. It remains the most amaing pice of ratory i have ever scne. mesmerising until 30 minutes later and the ramifications of what he said sunk in.
19. the only event you could cite in support of your arguement so far is 7/7 which compared to 3000 dead from the white cristain IRA isn’t much ?
Thats not to say there isn’t merit in our arguement.Their is a liberal racism abroad that implies that brown skinned people can’t really live like us so we have to tolerate sexism, corruption, homhobi 14th centuary beliefs out of respect for there culture.
Its bolocks and 90% of muslims I deal with a councillor agree. White guilt hands over ntire communities to a series of unelected patriachs, sorry, community leaders.
of course I’m at the botom of the food chan but i get i all the time over taxi licencing, planing takeaways, MO licencing. You can’t do this to us ( enforce the law) other wise you are a racist.
tell them to sod off and talk about rime, housin and education and 90% of muslims will back you particularly women.
Of course such an approach would put a section of the community relations industry out of business as well as some right wing polemicists.
I shall stop posting till I’m on a better keyboard!
22: I liked this comment on Matt Yglesias’s blog:
“Apparently sick of convincing superdelegates, Obama has hit upon the innovative strategy of inventing new superdelegates.”
I’m still trying to get my head around the fact that sensible people like Mike and Nick Palmer still seem to think Clinton has something like a 20%+ chance of winning the 65%+ of the remaining superdelegates, and trying to think up ways that might make sense.
Can anyone familiar with internal Democratic Party politics help me out here? One thought I had was that while Obama and Dean’s strategy of trying to expand the map makes sense if you’re only thinking about promoting a Democratic agenda, concentrating on a 51% strategy might make more sense if you’re a sitting representative of one of the consituencies in the 51%. Do the superdelegates overwhelmingly represent traditional Democratic areas, giving them an incentive to preserve the status quo?
I’m not sure on this one.
The same school - Nottingham High - doesn’t seem to have damaged Geoff Hoon (or Ed Davey or Ken Clarke for that matter). But then none of those (don’t know about Hoon) are engaged in bashing the ladder that helped them climb to the top.
I have a school photo from 1980 or so that presumably has him on it somewhere.
Is it £10k a year now? Ye Gods.
Ed Balls.
I’m reminded of the famous Spiro Agnew advert in the US, when his opponent ran an ad with just a picture of him. Then in the background someone starts to laugh. And another. Then some more. Finally, a giant chorus of laughter over this image.
Labour would be mad to pick him. Although, given what they did last summer… Whoever they pick next time will probably only have the job as Leader of the Opposition. So if Balls is really that ambitious, he might be well advised to sit it out a couple of elections.
27. But “Spiro Agnew” is an anagram of “Grow a penis”, so it’s logical that people would laugh at him. Luckily, Ed Balls doesn’t have that sort of problem.
28
Nixon when asked why he kept Spiro Agnew as VP said “who would assassinate me?”.
If one believed in conspiracy theories the disgrace of Agnew for bribes & tax evasion before Nixon was forced to resign on Watergate looks mighty convenient.
Please!… then again it remains more likley that Brown will lose the next election so it remains to be seen how much say he’ll have over his sucessor, but Labour would be blind to pick somone like Balls.
Having said that who else is there, Denham or Cooper are the only credible performers they would seem to have… maybe Straw (although he’s really too old now)… there is a real derth of talent on the Labour benches that has often gone uncommented upon.
22 - notice also that Foster was very keen to associate himself with Obama, running in a very Republican district it seems that Obama was very much an asset… it’s no surprise that Clinton was ignored by the Foster campaign.
Further evidence that Obama apeals to a far wider spectrum than Clinton and probably a anotehr good sign for him in the fall should he be the nominee… of course he still has work to do with theose blue collar, Reagan Democrats.
Gordon , Balls will work for the next two years with one thing in mind and that is re election . The new team around Gordon is now more competent and the Tories should not underestimate them
Unless Gordon has any more mishaps i think we will see labour creep back up in the polls
I Know Ed Balls and I can confirm
1) His private `performances’ are worse than his public appearances
2) He is exceptionally arrogant
3) Once GB is not there he will get a good kicking because nobody likes him
He asked for the education (and children!) portfolio to soften his image and he now looks like the school bully.
32. I wish it were so. But surely Cameron’s team will also be just as committed to deny Labour a 4th term? I don’t think that simply avoiding mishaps is a strategy for victory, but of course it is a requirement. The difficulty is that there is precious little room for big spending increases. The commitments we gave prior to the run-up of the non-election were considerable. We’re going to need some bold thinking and sound communication from across the Labour team that simply does not require the writing of new cheques. A windfall tax on gas companies would be something we would have instinctively considered in 1996. We must make the weather.
And of course it’s not all about Brown, crucial as he is. Plenty of Ministers need to prove they are as good as their own hype. We’ve got to give people a reason to positively vote for us, otherwise we’ll be killed by our supporters staying at home. The weakness of Clegg gives some comfort and a strengthening of the Labour’s stature among the centre-left could begin with Budget Day. But the political will has to be there. We will see.
18. the toff badge has no legs, so far its got nowhere despite numerous attempts to push it.
Ed Balls…as labour leader….my god the tories would be salivating. He has no communication skills, no charm, no charisma. Cameron would eat him alive every PMQ’s and everywhere else as well!
32. No more mishaps? your syaing that as if they have a choice! and the team around Cameron will be pushing just as hard for victory, that plus any team lacking in ed balls must be better than one with.
35. When I think of Ed Balls I think of that blinking Minister from the Thick of It.
37. true. whenever he speaks he sounds like he has no confidence, he has a very soft, dull voice void of any personality. In the house of commons his speeches are always dreadful, stuttery and boring.
I also think it’s unfortunate that some of our lot have, let’s say, unhelpful or funny surnames. Miliband. Balls. Cruddas. Straw. Kinnock. Gifts to the tabloid headline writers. Can’t imagine people on my estate saying ‘I’m voting for Balls and nothing is going to stop me.’
Certainy not as straight forward as Major or Thatcher, or Wilson and Heath. By that logic we need a Cooper or Flint.
Was at the same college as Ed Balls… his views have certainly shall we say drifted over time much like the rest of the leadership. I remember him as arrogant and ambitious then too. I seem to recall him voting to have The Sun banned from the college though maybe I have misremembered… hope Murdoch is forgiving hahahah.
I wouldn’t write him off as a candidate who could say whatever was thought to be popular at the time while still retaining loyal Brownites.
38 - He’s the most over promoted and over rated member of the current cabinet… entirley his master’s creature which probably means that once Brown goes Balls will follow him out the door.
But as i say, it’s a reflection of the derth of talent in the current PLP… compared to the Conservatives and the LibDems it’s really striking how little quality has been allowed to emerge within the Labour Party in recent years.
I’ve never thought (or said) that it’s Cameron’s fault where he went to school - I shouldn’t think he had much say in the decision. The only way it’s vaguely relevant is that people who have a privileged background need to make a special effort to understand what it’s like to have a tough background. Becoming a Tory MP isn’t IMO a very good start.
25: Edmund, this gives a trot round the various possible US election strategies and outcomes, not all equally credible:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3511833.ece
Not sure it’s worth our arguing the toss about whether Clinton’s chances are 5, 10 or 25% - we all think it’s less likely than Obama, and we may not really know much more till after Pennsylvania next month.
39 - Cooper would be a very good shout… unfortunatley for her hubby would never let it happen as it honestly belives he could be PM.
I think we should remember the Godfather’s advice to Michael Corleone who is about to meet another boss. “When he talks of retiring he is thinking of living forever”.(or words to that effect)
42 - But Clinton will win PA and win it handily, i’m not sure the race there will make much difference to the nomination campaign as a whole - of course it’s possible that Clinton could build up a head of steam comming out of PA, but it’s probably unlikley… neither she nor Obama has managed to ride momentum in that way this cycle.
41. Yes but as Tony Benn used to say New Labour was always the smallest political party in the UK. All this A list stuff from the Tories is no worse than Labour has done. The links and background between this the elite Primrose Hill set doesn’t bode well for the future of all political parties. None of them seem to have done a day’s work in the real world.
The Sunday Times has an interview with Ken Livingstone today in which he says:
“We need to have a primary system in this country. The reason our politics is so boring is because we vet all our candidates. As a result, it’s becoming an all-graduate profession: even in this Labour government, there are only two definably working-class players: Hazel Blears and Alan Johnston. The working class can’t get past the vetting process.
“We need to break the grip of the party machine. The primary system allows people to bypass the party structures. We also need a directly elected prime minister who can bring anyone into his government, not just MPs – then you’d get a wider spread of people. Parliament should be smaller.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3510777.ece
Well, before you can assess the prospects for any candidate in Labour’s next leadership election, you need to paint the scenario or background against which it will occur.
I expect Labour to be reduced to something like their core fastnesses, 220-230 seats. It will be a Party in trauma, with its leading lights in denial. The Unions will have a big say in the timing of the contest, and I doubt they’ll want to rush things. The first straw in the wind will be the Shadow Cabinet election: I’d assume Cruddas will stand and how he does may be a good indicator: also worth watching for who the best-placed woman is - although not the least of Labour’s woes is that they don’t have a woman politician of the calibre of Barbara Castle or Shirley Williams in their prime. In fact, the Lib Dems have probably the best of the current crop of women MPs.
I would not assume that it will be a Balls-Miliband line-up: both will be seen as tainted goods, and may even prefer to keep their powder dry and re-invent themselves. After all, in 1970 we all thought Tony Benn was a tiresome technocrat.
Labour has got to the stage ministerially that the Tories reached by the late 80s when most of the ministers around the cabinet table were there because they were competent in junior briefs and deserved promotion. Fine in itself, but it has the major political drawback that there are few if any natural links beween those skills and the other necessary skills of senior politicians in communication. It also tends to a very ‘grey’ cabinet. Brown has made this tendency worse by including a large proportion of individuals (including Balls) who have been fast-tracked past the usual learning fields of MPs, straight into the cabinet.
So while in the 90s, the Tories got kicked about by people like Cook, Blair, Brown (to a lesser extent) and Prescott (useless minister but a fine public campaigner), it’s now difficult to remember many of the lesser stars in the cabinet who floundered against them. But even the Tories then had people like Clarke and Heseltine, but then they had both experienced opposition. Labour is in danger of a cabinet which has never developed the skills you acquire in opposition, which will not only serve them poorly in government - even with the government press office, you still have to make your own case - but even more badly whenever Labour loses power. It is no coincidence that the Conservatives were pretty useless in opposition from 1997 to 2003 - there was simply a lack of understanding of how to do it.
Matching minister against shadow cabinet member, the balance is overwhelmingly on the Tory side in terms of media effectiveness. I have no doubt that Labour has some very intellegent people on its front bench, but if they can’t get their message across, or if their opponents can make a better case, then they’re in trouble. Imagine a series of TV debates involving
Brown vs Cameron
David Miliband vs Hague
Darling vs Osborne
Jacqui Smith vs Davis
That looks to me like three big Tory wins to one much closer Labour one (and if Balls replaces Darling, I’d put that in the Tory column as well, though it would be dreadful TV).
I agree with those above who say Brown will only be removed from Downing Street by an election / parliamentary loss. Labour’s next leader will get the job in opposition. It will be a thankless task and quite possibly an impossible one. It will also not be Balls’.
42. It jolly well does make a difference as to whether Hillary’s chances are 5% or 25%. One is 3/1 and the other is 19/1. That massively affects what’s value, especially as there’s unlikely to be any opportunity to cash in the bet before the convention.
I don’t think the Tories has as many sound media performers as we had in opposition. I can’t stand looking at Michael Gove’s little beady eyes, even though he’s quite interesting on paper. I think David Davis is a very good communicator, so is Cameron. Hague is good in a weird way and Osbourne is getting better but still not there. I can’t think of any others - who do you rate David?
From the Lib Dems Cable and Huhne obviously, but I’ve also liked Phil Willis’ style. On Labour’s side we need more of John Denham on the TV. Any Questions is fine, but he needs to be allowed mass exposure more often. Trouble is Balls wouldn’t like that…
46.
I’d love to see a primary system emerge in the UK. The conservatives have dabbled with them a little, but to really have an effect I think they need to be more universal, by which I mean safe seats, and sitting MPs.
51. I think it certainly allows more radical and charismatic individuals to flourish. It’d be interesting to see how it would work on the left - it could mean that the trade union endorsement of a prospective candidate requires real mobilisation of members on the ground and politically justify and engaging with them. Instead sadly all too often it’s just some union officer signing a form without consulting more than 2 or 3 people.
47. I doubt very much whether Labour will go for a woman leader. The deputy leadership exists to allow balance to the leadership team which means now that more often than not it will be reserved for a woman. Unlike the Tories, who have demostrated real equal opportunities at the very highest level of the party, Labour’s next leader, going by past performance will be:
- Male (100% so far)
- White (100% so far)
- Between 40 and 55 (in opposition, only Foot breaks with this)
- From outside England, either in background or parliamentary seat (Brown is the sixth in a row)
- Middle-class and university educated (Callaghan and Kinnock weren’t but all the rest were)
Of these, the least likely to follow trend is the English criterion, partly because of the options available and partly because it really is about time that by far the largest component of the UK unambiguously produced a leader for Labour.
Alan Duncan is good, and they do have some youngsters that can perform well but need more exposure. The core section of Camerons shadow cabinet are far superior to their government counterparts, even ed balls opposite number (cant remember his name) who isnt a great performer, rips him to pieces every time they go up against each other.
[46][51] Primaries are a function of directly elected executive positions (Presidents, State Governors) which has then spilled over into legislative ones. However, the London Mayoralty would be an obvious place to trial it. I suppose it would have to be an “open” primary, i.e. you could vote on any list you liked, but only one.
Boris isn’t posh! Boris is descended from a slave!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/09/boris.localgovernment
All together now,’Tote dat barge, lift dat bale if you get a little drunk, then you land in jail’ pause ‘Oh ‘Ol man Ribber dat ‘Ol man Ribber’
That’ll give him some cred amongst the brothers.
I’ve just twigged who Balls reminds me of…
Piers Fletcher-Dervish
http://www.aidansemmens.co.uk/features/img/mt1.jpg
So at the next election the slogan will be vote Brown get Balls?
Ben @ 41 re Balls the most over-promoted? The Home Secretary might give you an argument about that.
Balls might be Brown’s Mandelson: the brilliant but too clever by half backroom boy who lacks the managerial or political sense to run a bath. Osborne may turn out the same way for Cameron, and Hague had Seb Coe. The LibDems’ equivalent is Clegg, which is a problem.
Balls is, though, playing an interesting game at whatever his department is called this week. Putting up the school leaving age may show a lack of care for his voters but will play well amongst the middle class elite which thinks it ought to be 21; he is continuing the Blairite city academy programme; and Lord Adonis remains in post.
If he is serious about becoming leader, Balls does need to address his communication problems. Thatcher did, Davis and Clinton did not.
50. I would agree that the Tory front bench of 2008 does not quite have the strength in depth of Labour 1995/6. However, that is more than made up for by the fact that the Tory front bench in 1995/6 was a good deal better than Labour 2008. On a minister vs shadow match-up, how many are in the Labour column?
52.
It’s not just the quality of the candidates such a system might produce. Its also that MPs would always have to keep a weather eye on their electorate. I can’t see a MP who might face a primary challenge peddling this disgraceful ‘the Lisbon treaty isn’t the same thing as the EU Constituion’ tripe.
There’s a Douglas Carswell interview on YouTube that always gets me misty eyed over the possibilities of increasing voter power, link below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SD3M5aMYzU
46-That is Livingstone trying to justify his style of governance at the GLA with all the non-elected cronys and officials.
53. Yes I agree it would be helpful for our next leader to be English. I read the other day that Harman is planning to extend the laws permitting all women shortlists in our selections to 2030. Then there’s all black shortlists on their way too. Dear God it gives diversity a rotten name.
Whenever I think of Ed Balls, I think of that Hezza speech where he went through some absurd and irrelevant build-up just so he could triumphantly get to the punchline, “But is wasn’t Brown’s. IT WAS BALLS!”
Balls hasn’t got it and won’t do it. He is much more of a backroom operative. The next Labour leadership contest will be interesting - I suspect David Milliband will get it but there are a few who may fancy it.
63. ‘there’ not ‘their’
65. ‘the’ not ‘there’!
You can tell it is a slow news day. This is just your average Sunday paper fluff. Nothing happens on Saturdays that is worth reporting other than the football, so the Sunday papers are always full of this bilge. Undoubtedly put out by some Cameroon spinner, with nothing else to spin. A non-story. Never going to happen. A dud.
14 I thought there was a programme a few months ago which identified the lady in question, and found that she had indeed suffered the abuse that Powell referred to.
19 Powell’s language was needlessly lurid, but I think he has been proved more right than wrong over the past 40 years ( a good thing I’m not on the Candidates’ list).
63. Well that’s because all-women shortlists and all-black shortlists are not diverse, they are discriminatory.
68
The lady was identified, but there was still doubt about the abuse. Her non-white neighbours were rather bemused, as she was always very friendly to them.
Primaries, all-X short lists. All rendered irrelevant by STV.
67. yep, but it got published at least. that plus i think most labour supporters are terrified of balls becoming leader.
61. This is an interesting piece. I completely agree with Carswell’s point about the dangers of the party list system.
72. Which is exactly why it was spun in the first place
Of course, the plan has always been for Ed Balls to succeed Gordon Brown. By the next election Balls will be Chancellor and then beyond that Brown will make sure his Balls replaces him? Somehow, I suspect by then Labour will be in Opposition, though.
I doubt very much whether Balls will ever make it to PM, but Labour leader? Sure.
I watched Rivers of Blood, and was fascinated by it.
I think half of Powell’s speech was entirely correct, and the other half entirely wrong.
Massive immigration (amusing in a black way to hear how 50,000 a year was too many) means that integrating the immigrants can’t work effectively, a problem exacerbated by multiculturalism which fuels and accepts enclaves.
However, Powell was entirely wrong about blakc people from the Commonwealth being those unwilling or unable to integrate. What we’ve seen is that some Muslims simply reject British values, and are willing to kill innocents (including other Muslims) for their perverted take on religion.
If you have a country split apart by different cultures then fostering a shared identity and sense of patriotism becomes all but impossible. Of course, certain elements of the mainstream left (Hodge) seem to think disparaging British culture is perfectly acceptable.
Labour has weakened the sense of British identity through lopsided and ill-thought through devolution which electorally disenfranchises the English.
To go on-topic: Let’s say we get the Hung Parliament. Balls is not the man to revive a flagging Labour party. He is not the man to lead the country. And he is not the man to lead in opposition.
In short, Balls would be a disaster for Labour. So, as long as they don’t form the next government, I’m perfectly happy for him to take over at the helm, and run the good ship Labour onto the electoral rocks.
19 - I thoroughly agree with Sean’s second paragraph. The sad thing in a way is that I don’t even really belive Enoch Powell felt very strongly about immigration and race relations. He needed something to cast him in the role as a popular figurehead for the Tory right, and a stiring appeal for monetarism wasn’t likely to do it. But he misjudged it and felt unable to row back (a fatal character flaw in a politician).
Ultimately, the big winner was Thatcher - both Powell and Joseph were in some ways more substantial figures (certainly intellectually) but both blew it in similar ways (Rivers of Blood and Joseph’s Edgbaston Speech) and were ultimately too flawed to bring it back.
15 Jacqui Smith must hold Redditch first and her chances seem to get less with each day at the Home Office IMHO.
As for Balls well the Blairites stood still for Brown but they’re not fools and can see Balls’s public persona. The only scenario Brown could force him through would be to increase Labour’s majority at the next election. If you think that could happen then by all means back Balls but if not
59 - Fair point… then again, it’s easy to get confused when rating the current cabinet by the degree to which they’ve been over promoted
59 - Fair point… then again, it’s easy to get confused when rating the current cabinet by the degree to which they’ve been over promoted
77,59 — Sir Keith Joseph was another backroom boy who couldn’t act on the big stage.
What Gordon Brown needs is a Willie Whitelaw.
I agree with those who think Ed Milliband is Brown’s most likely successor.
69 One of the interesting things about anti-discrimination legislation is the way it has shifted from being about ending colour bars, in 1968, to trying to enforce equal outcomes between different social groups - which obviously can’t be done without unfairly discriminating against individuals.
79,80 — yes, Darling will be under examination this week, though not here as pb’s elite betting troops will be at Cheltenham (weather permitting).
New Rasmussen Primary Poll for North Carolina :
Obama 47% .. Clinton 40%.
83. It’s the politics of the Labour Left in the 80s. Harman becamse an MP in 1982 and she hasn’t moved on in 26 years. Quite depressing really. I’ve read it before that Obama and Clinton have not required ethnic and gender shortlists.
83, I agree entirely. Pathetically, cries for a ‘representative’ democracy is leading politicians to try and produce a Parliament based on demographics rather than merit. I was greatly disheartened to hear of Cameron’s 30% women Cabinet pledge, and outraged by the idiotic idea of all black shortlists.
87. In my experience if you ask people what you do you want most from their councillor or MP, they say understanding local issues and toyour be approachable. It’s not that often that they specify skin colour or genitals.
83 - absolutely. It may have been you that pointed out that two groups greatly underrepresented in Parliament are council house tenants and non-graduates.
So what next? Council house tenant only shortlists? Non-graduate only shortlists? Utterly utterly demented ideas - but coming soon?
South Lanarkshire Council has STILL not published the full result of Thursday’s Cambuslang East by election, which say a massive swing from Labour to the Scottish National Party (perhaps even a record-breaking swing TO an incumbent governing party?)
The conduct of this by election has been appalling. Neil Kinnock’s DRS are surely going to lord their lucrative Scottish vote counting contract now, or…
74. yup, but its still true. Balls would be a disaster for labour, in all seriousness. He’s unelectable as a leader and would lead them into the wildnerness.
After reading about the content of Clegg’s speech today I have to say he sounds even more whingy than usual. He’s also going to go on about Brown being gutless…….not a great idea to my mind.
Cameron’s 30% Cabinet quota is so bad it hurts. It’ll mean that newly elected female MPs will be fastracked into the most senior position of Government without even having served in a shadow role in opposition. And if he was going to have a quota, surely it should be 50%?!!!
89. I should like at this point to resurrect my policy for ‘electing’ at least a good proportion of the House of Lords - at least a third - by random selection, rather like jury service. That would produce in part a genuine representation while maintaining its differentness from the Commons.
Sean Fear I’ve not yet got your piece - it must have got lost somewhere. Can you email me?
91, Clegg making an error of judgement? Impossible!
93, interesting idea, but I rather suspect the powers that be might just fiddle it.
92 I think it is an ‘aspiration’ not a ‘pledge’ so no manifesto commitment or anything like that making it binding no matter what
Blinky as leader is a joke surely. He makes Kinnock look electable. I really can’t see Ed Milliband for the same reason. He looks dangerous. James Purnell would be my bet. Looks fairly reasonable although he needs to get rid of those sideburns.
One trouble is the public school, Oxbridge types are less likely to see what is happening on the ground. There is a line in Snowflake5’s blog: “The surprising thing for me was how many regions in the UK are below the EU average”.
http://snowflake5.blogspot.com/2008/03/richest-region-in-europe.html
(Remember when guessing snowflake5’s identity was as popular as outing Jack W?)
19. One of the most depressing pieces of info on this topic I have yet come across.
97. In recent years politicians from all sides have contaminated the word ‘aspiration’.
99. Interesting link since Snowflake’s entry includes reference to the fact that Frank Field has written a pamphlet promoting primaries!
94. Sorry. I thought you had it. I’ll have to resend it from the office tomorrow. I don’t know what the problem is.
67, Mr Troll, I’d of thought by now you would have twigged that dismissing a story as yet more ‘cameroon bilge’ doesn’t quite cut it here. If you have an alternative opinion as to Brown’s successor (and Balls name has been banded around for at least the past year) how about sharing actually your thoughts as to whom and why.
“One trouble is the public school, Oxbridge types” - such a phrase is not very helpful.
Most of those who go to public school do not go to Oxbridge. And of those who go to Oxbridge now, a majority went to state school.
Of those who went to Oxbridge in the past, many had been on assisted places at independent schools; others had parents who scrimped and saved for the fees to local independent schools. Surprisingly few came from lavishly rich backgrounds that some like to portray.
99- an interesting list. I am not surprised to see Kent and Essex doing very poorly compared to the rest of the South East.
86, You mention Harriet Harmon having been an MP since 1982, do you now see her as a potential party leader? I would have thought her unconventional ‘working class roots’ might be seen as a handicap personally.
SBS @ 104: point taken. How about public school, Oxbridge, parliament types?
95. the line on the news is ‘gutless, heartless and incompetant’ going too far in my opinion. the tory line is much more subtle ‘dithering and incompetance’ and has worked to an extent. the labour line against the tories of them being toffs has just sunk without trace.
106. No she won’t be leader. 50/1.
108, it should be remembered that everything that a politician says reflects as much as themselves as on their target. When Cameron and Osborne misread the mood and overegged the cake at nationalisation of Northern Rock they inadvertently made themselves look somewhat overexcited. A more sombre approach would’ve been far better.
Clegg, after a staged walkout, feigned indignation at not getting his own way with an in/out referendum, the woeful interview with Paxman and the impressively early split in his party, risks looking like a hysterical creature not suitable for political leadership in any way.
His vaunted communication skills are blatantly a myth, his clarity of policy is as clear as mud, his principles are a fiction and his leadership (managing to divide the most united party on Europe on an EU issue) is pathetic.
107 - well there are a few. But there are plenty of state school Oxbridge types - say Ed Davey, Julia Goldsworthy, the Millibands, Billy Hague, Chris Grayling… to name a few
Sorry but it doesn’t matter where you were educated. You have a better chance of getting selected or promoted if you are female or from an ethnic minority thanks to the anti-discrimination legislation which is in need of review. The left are totally to blame for the current mess. If you are an English heterosexual white male you need not apply.
111 I thought we agreed Ed Davey and Ed Balls went to the same, publis school. So, Davey’s not a “state school” Oxbridge type.
In fact, a bucnh of schools — Westminster, Manchester GS, Nottingham HS — are hugely over-represented in Parlaimanet.
113 Horrid thought — were Davey and Balls in the same form? They’re very close in age.
12.
“Illinois’ phallic and hitherto Republican-leaning 14th District:”
From the shape and geography of that district, it seems that gerrymandering left-overs must still be strong in that part of the world. Seems like we should send them the Electoral Commission. Indeed for the first time we might see some useful output from that body!
Neither Obama nor Clinton actually have leads against McCain (and Clinton actually does better). The polls that show Obama with 10+ point leads are flawed because they either measure only registered voters or, even worse, all adults.
New Mississippi projections. Obama still leads by over 16%.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/09/obama-leads-by-1606-in-mississippi/
Re. 8, indeed, it didn’t seem too much of a problem for Blair and Attlee.
Ed Balls as Labour leader? Well if we want to win even fewer seats than in 1931, he’s the man to pick! He can be fairly personable away from the TV cameras, but I would rather eat my own faeces than vote for him in a leadership election. He already looks out of his depth as Education Secretary, and Gove runs rings around him.
I agree entirely with those who say that Denham would be good leadership material. If Brown was less insecure, Denham might be in one of the top three posts by now.
104.
The output of these two Universities is not exactly that brilliant. They largely live on their laurels and attracting disproportionately able state school pupils to bale out their lazy approach.
“Surprisingly few came from lavishly rich backgrounds that some like to portray.”
Only the idiots who make it into Cameron’s ’shadow Cocabinet’?
Osborne was on the box this morning. Even the limp Andrew Marr managed to make him struggle with his sums which don’t add up. It was left to Kelvin Mckenzie to point out that the country’s economy is irrefutably going down the plughole because of ten years of Blair/Brown Toryism (Reaganism actually) and Osborne would be dishonest to pretend that he’s got any chance of recovering it. “A good election to lose”, another commentator said.
117. He should have made John Denham Home Secretary.
Summary of Clegg’s speech today:
“Labour ‘gutless’ and Tories ‘dishonest’”.
For heaven’s sake can’t the man do any more than state the obvious?
Sorry, got Davey wrong. But there are quite a lot of state school Oxbridge types. Damian Greene, Oliver Heald, Andrew Smith and Mark Field all went on from Reading Boys School to Oxbridge.
That must be the most from a single state school in Parliament.
120. cant he do any better than spout off platitudes about how great he is and the parties are nasty after a week where he’s been weak and pathetic over europe, then whinged at the press afterwards when they noticed.
I await Clegg’s pronouncements that:
“We are at our best when we are at our boldest.”
“We want to create a liberal society.”
“We are going to break the mould of two party politics.”
“The public are sick of Punch and Judy politics.”
CK was a master of these platitudes.
116: “Neither Obama nor Clinton actually have leads against McCain (and Clinton actually does better).”
Are you sure you’re not making stuff up just to make us click on the link to your blog? Or are you saying virtually all the polls to date are rubbish, but you have access to a really good one that isn’t up on Real Clear Politics yet?
McCain vs Obama
http://tinyurl.com/2yke8u
Clinton vs Obama
http://tinyurl.com/39guh8
OT if anyone is interested, Euro Elections Labour selection in North West. Labour elected 3 MEPs in 2004, one of them is retiring. The new top 3 will be:
1) Arlene McCarthy MEP
2) Brian Simpson MEP
3) Theresa Griffin
99
Lots of reasons to get rid of the absurd Barnett formula.
124 Matthew lives in Partridge-World — where Tony is still an adorable, floppy-haired 40 year old wonder politician, the Iraq War is ever popular with the happy citizenry and Hillary Clinton is the Next President of the United States.
A fine role awaits Matthew in the remake of “One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest”
SeanT will like this well argued article on the treaty vote last week. More quality writing from Matthew d’Ancona.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/03/09/do0901.xml
As I said in my previous post, when the polling is restricted to likely voters, McCain leads both Clinton and Obama (despite what RCP say the Washington Post poll covers all adults). Given the fact that non-registered and non-likely voters tend to disproportinately favour the Democrats, it makes sense to restrict people to likely voters.
BTW. I’m currently using http://www.pollster.com as my source for data.
127: Not trying to be rude to anyone, and I normally just skip past his stuff, but when you start hallucinating opinion polls it’s a sign that you need to take a break from the political betting sites a bit.
(Unless I’ve missed or misread something, in which case, apologies…)
Ed Ball = No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
David Milband = Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On topic: No effing way.
127.
FYI, I support John McCain - I just think that between Hillary Clinton and Obama, the Senator from New York is the lesser of two evils.
99. We are told Scotland is the second largest contributor to the UK economy after the south east, so why do they require a Barnett Formulae if this is a needs based formulae? Edinburgh and Glasgow do have a lot of finance houses between them so these must be the main wealth generating industries in Scotland as the mainly Scottish oil revenues (less than 1% of UK GDP) are drying up. The Royal Bank of Scotland is a very successful UK wide bank (and I have a business credit card with them!!). Scotland like England has a lot of small businesses which generate money for the country but they just aren’t taken seriously by this Marxist government and treated with contempt by the British (not English) Labour supporting media.
129: OK, I get it - I take back the snark at 130 about hallucinating polls.
So basically what you’re saying is that the only poll you trust is Ramussen.
127 Any news on May in your neck of the woods
116 - Which polls are you actually basing this on?… coz for most of the election cycles Obama has done considerably better than Clinton in matchups against McCain, and at the same time that performance has been broader in it’s scope (he might lose out compared to Clinton in Democrat areas but does better overall).
135.
There are actually a few other companies which have surveyed likely voters but Rasmussen is the most regular pollster. Another importan thing to remeber with Rasmussen (and Gallup) is that tracking polls have to be disaggregated into separate polls, so the next Rasmussen projection I (and Pollster.com) will incorperate is the poll published on Monday.
Ed Balls is my MP and I can tell you he has no personally at all. His personal skills on a one to one basis remind me of Dustin Hoffman in Rainman. Labour couldn’t choose a worse candidate.
It’s not just deprivation though is it (though Scotland has lots of that, and I’m not sure a mathematical average is the best way of working that out). It’s rurality too, it’s more expensive to provide services when people live fifty miles from the service centre than it is in a heavily populated area.
99 There are some curiosities in that table. The presence of a considerable number of millionaires in Inner London would distort the figure upwards (and possibly in other cities) but I’d still need some persuading that average incomes in Inner London are three times the level of average incomes in Outer London (which has its own fair share of millionaires).
Likewise, I find it hard to believe that Essex and East Anglia should have a standard of living only just above Northern Ireland.
I reckon one of the Millibands will get it.
Perhaps, David as party leader and Ed as shadow chancellor. I’d place them to the left of the current party leadership but not as far left as the membership, which seems to be what the membership want. Also they wouldn’t be terrible in leading the party in opposition or cause divisions to arise in the party.
141 Why not simply ‘post’ your article in this way
141 - I can’t really comment on Essex too much. But I don’t think it is that surprising that Kent comes out badly. There is a lot of deprivation particularly in East Kent and the Medway towns.
If you look at the international tables, you see Prague comes out at 160. Now I know there is money in Prague, but most people there have a standard of living lower than most people in the UK. So the table looks pretty rubbish to me.
I heard a rumour down the pub last night that a ‘major’ political party has a spring conference this weekend, err, somewhat sceptical myself as I’m sure if it was so, someone here would have mentioned it……anyone got any ideas?