The Budget thread….
March 12th, 2008
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Can Darling pull something out of the hat?
After a decade of Gordon Brown budgets it’s going to be quite a change seeing Alistair Darling delivering his first budget with his predecessor at his side.
What has he got in store? Will he be able to wrong-foot Cameron who has to make a response immediately afterwards without having had any chance to read and assimilate the details?
Given that a general election might only be thirteen months away what’s announced today might play a major part in Labour’s recovery plan.
As we discussed yesterday the budget has become a major betting event. I’m on the number of times Darling uses the word “Prudent”.
The speech starts at 12.30 immediately after PMQs.
Mike Smithson
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As long as he drinks lots, *LOTS* of water and spurts out the word “Prudent” at least 20 times, I’ll be a happy man.
(Might make up for all the extra tax I’m going to have to pay on my petrol and booze.)
Personally I’m waiting for the Chancellor who is prepared to take on Gladstone’s budget record for length of speech. No sign that Darling will still be on his feet at 5:30 but it would be fun to watch a Chancellor boring on for hours on the intricacies of PAYE or some such!
Order Order spread looks like great value. You break even on a buy if the deputy speaker says this just once.
Difficult to not see it happening at least once given the number of hot issues likely to get the opposition benches making noise.
Darling’s trying to relax on PMQ’s
Why has Cameron started on Darfur? Gives a rare chance for Gordon to look “statesman-like”.
5. Perhaps he’s going to highlight Gordo’s failure to deliver the AU troops he promised ?
I hope this Darfur line is going somewhere.
What’s Cameron playing at?
darfur… yawn
re 3. Traditionally the speech is heard without interruption
Nick Clegg has small feet.
Let’s face it, nothing in PMQs will be reported today, so might as well get the dull and worthy stuff out of the way. Any new viewers of PMQs today because of Budget will see a statesmanlike DC if nothing else.
I expect he’ll have some fun though in the round 2 questions.
And we’ve got Cleggy to laugh at in a minute…
I just hope we don’t get the same kind of pathetic stunt as last years ‘2p off the basic rate’ which turned out to be 10p *on* the lowest rate for the lowest earners.
Clegg getting a hounding again.
His points are generally valid but he’s being turned in to the chambers whipping boy.
7 - This is always a rubbish PMQ’s as nothing in it will appear in the news. Cameron knows that so he can ask whatever he likes knowing that the soundbite clip will be from the budget response.
We’ll have to wait and see about cameron, however the budget overshadowing PMQ’s is probably accurate. is clegg being barracked again?
@10:
Small feet, little prick.
That’s Cleggy.
Perhaps Cameron is keeping his powder dry so he can unload (arf!) on to Browns Darling later.
ooooh…Cameron hitting Brown with the whipping accusation over the embryo bill.
Brown is stuttering and waffling his way through a non-answer.
Clegg reminds me of the not very bright members of the university debating society who used to think shouting loudly was a substitute for putting a good point across persuasively.
Brown clearly rattled by Cameron about the whipping of votes on what should be conscience matters - and again refused to answer.
18. Cameron getting in a bit of dog whistle for the religious while the rest of us aren’t listening…
@20:
If at first you don’t succeed, SHOUT SHOUT AGAIN. And then sulk, and storm out. Obviously.
19 - Well quite. He has hardly excelled himself has he, with his party walking out because the rules were not changed to suit them and acting all Kevin-like and crying ‘It’s not fair’.
Clegg needs to cut out the shrillness when he’s getting barracked.
He should just keep calmly repeating the line until the house quietens down which it would through boredom if nothing else.
He’s being made to look rattled every time he stands up and it’s detracting from what he’s trying to say.
21. and? if it rattles brown, then cameron has asked the right question. might unsettle darling as well.
Could someone please list out the latest prices from Sporting Index on the budget for me?
Can’t access the site at work..
I’d be incredibly (cyber)grateful!!
Darling looks absolutely petrified.
Regarding Republicans voting in the Democrat primary: New York Republicans are very different from Texan Republicans. I can’t imagine the sort of people who liked George Bush as governor would ever want to Obama, let alone Clinton. They were trying to mess up the Democrats.
24. Agreed.
I think Clegg’s real advantage over Huhne was that Lib Dem members saw him as a “nice man” - which is always an advantage for Lib Dem leaders. But Clegg has shown himself to be pretty irritable. He needs to do righteous anger (like Ming tried at last year’s Lib Dem conference… or think Howard Dean in his 2003 days), not crabby crossness.
@27:
As long as he knows how to love, I’ll know he’ll stay alive.
I loathe Brown but I have some sympathy for Darling; I find it hard to dislike him.
31. But worth the effort?
32. I’m having a good go
henley residents must be delighted by Boris’ tireless work on their behalf
30. Go on now, walk out the door. Just turn around now. Cause you’re not welcome anymore.
Is anyone watching this on BBC1? They showed a guy in the BBC Business Unit and as soon as he opened his mouth, Gordon Brown’s voice came out. Scary stuff
Dear God - Jade Goody saying what she wants from the Chancellor on BBC2 Budget programme!
Dumbed down Britain? Never….
Good lord, Jade Goody, Colin Jackson, Damian Lewis, Trisha Goddard, Theo Paphitis and Kate Mosse (not Moss) talking about the budget. Even scarier stuff
Was she asking for liposuction and a personality implant?
37 - What did she come up with, tax relief on peroxide and fake tan?
Well the BBC are showing how rubbish they are at covering anything political. We don’t want to know what celebs or ordinary people think. What the hell are they doing in Gateshead?
Rubbish BBC….Rubbish BBC….Rubbish BBC….Rubbish BBC….Rubbish BBC….Rubbish BBC….Rubbish BBC….
The BBC is a disgrace.
Am I the only person who hates Nick Robinson?
41. Maybe it’s all because you and I stopped working for them!
41. Mike, what do you make of the BBCs coverage?
40. No, the personality implant is for Gorgon.
Why can’t they outsource this to CNN, CBS, NBC or ABC news?
Turn over to Sky if you have an IQ over 50.
I wonder if unemployment benefit will be increased as Chancellor Darling may be having to lay off a number of bank employees soon?
41.Why on earth have not got Andrew Neil anchoring this coverage, I turned over at 11.30am and then turned straight over to sky!?!
I thought they might deliver some robust debate, obviously not.
3 ’stabilities in the first sentence! And another two!!
damn you all, I’m going to miss it and have to watch the wretched replay on bbc later!
@43:
I don’t hate Nick Robinson. He’s too bloody rubbish at his job to have any real anger for. More pity.
I like his specs. And I like the way he says “Look…”.
I don’t like the way he has missed every major political news story since he became Auntie’s political editor, and has to rely on Grandad Smithson and Guido Fawkes to do his job for him, unpaid.
43 - I liked him when he was a Tory, but not since he started fellating Gordon (metaphorically speaking!!) at every opportunity.
Already had “stability” 93 times….
no speaker - is that order, order bet looking a bit dodgy?
47 - Perhaps they should outsource it to the non-troll residents of PB.com. I think our analysis would be more informed than Jade Goody who probably can’t even pronounce macroeconomic let alone understand what it means!
51.Stability is the key word and theme, crisis what crisis.
[41] Jade Goody is a celeb?? I thought she was just a fishwife. The BBC coverage is practically beyond parody.
Next week are we going to have meditations on Easter by Janet Street Porter? Understanding the PSBR with Kerry Katona?
stability much?
56 - Speaker never there for financial statements.
59 - Goody was on This Week last week too. It’ll be Question Time next! (Pls tell me she hasn’t been on already…)
Please refer to her as “the self confessed racist Jade Goody”
“We have maintained confidence in the banking system”! LOL!
It’s like a Kremlin address this…
64 - How many tractors have we made?
How many times will the Photo Negative man mention 2% inflation and is there anyone left who believes him?
I’m continually amused that Alistair Darling wears much better suits than Gordon Brown.
On facebook (very student orientated social networking site to those over 65) there are some surprising results on the ‘who would you vote for:
Con: 33% Lab: 29% LD: 17%
I’d expect the ’student friendly’ LD’s to do better.
Anyone believe these figures. Talking about inflation now at 2%. Who has that rate?
Are any of the ‘celebs’ non doms by any chance?
Has Jade whined on about how difficult the tax form is? Is it cos I can’t write?
Next on BBC1, the Teletubbies and The Tweenies pontificate on the significance of the May Local Elections, and The Muppets will comment on Darling’s Northern Rock Rescue.
66 He just did; and no-one.
Amidst all the stability - have we had a prudence yet?
67. Brown’s worn the same suit for a decade hasn’t he?
Love the way the front-on camera angle makes it look like Darling is a ventriloquist’s dummy, with Brown’s right arm concealed from vision and him pursing his lips so no-one can see the words coming out.
Quite apt…
68. There’s a surprising amount of Tory students these days, especially here at York.
72. You can only say prudence if you’re Scottish
He must have bought stability on a spread somewhere. At this rate, he’ll have all the Northern Rock money back off Sporting Index.
Two important questions:
1) What is he drinking?
2) Did he use the new red box that GB had made in 1997, or the old one (picture on BBC website suggests the latter)
Oh lord - Gordon is doing the smirky pointy thing again….
75. It’s the student debts. Having to face up to the real world quicker.
Pfew - I’m glad inflation is so low !
79. oh he’s not, didnt someone train him out of it?
How long is this likely to go on for? I need to nip out for a sandwich and get back in time for Osborne, the real business of today.
How long have I got…?
“The economic cycle began in 1997.” How the hell does he work that one out?
80 - If true, perhaps it’s more to do with the fact that they were under ten during the last Tory Government so have no real conception of how awful it was.
84 - It was when they got elected!
84 - Clearly nothing existed before 1997…
85. And things are great now aren’t they
84 because its utter fantasy just like everything else in this speech.
[70] The Muppets of course were the ones that carried out the rescure of NR.
It was Sesame Street who covered it:
“This week, Sesame Street is brought to you by the letter B and the number 55 billion”
@86:
A rather unconventional definition of ‘economic cycle’ from a man with an unconventional taste in eyebrow contrast.
87. Except David Cameron’s alleged masterminding of Black Wednesday!
The world began in 1997. Thatcher’s government was economically incompetent and runs on banks are normal.
Labour’s history books are an endless source of fascination.
88 - No. That’s why some young people say they will support the Conservatives under the illusion that they would be better. I think you make my point for me.
83. it’ll be cameron doing the reply, and god knows with darling. it’ll feel like several hours but will probably be quite short so the tories dont have much time to work out replies.
Isn’t he a dull orator? I keep drifting off……..
Blinky Balls doing a fine impression of the Churchill nodding dog.
Nearest that bugger will ever get to being Churchillian….
97 - So is Dave Miliband.
Was there a spread market for the number of times he says “Mr Deputy Speaker”?
He is predicting a £12 billion surplus in 2012. This is complete and utter fantasy, delusion, is this an admission from Labour that they dont think they will win the election???
Has he actually said anything tangable or of interest yet. All we’ve had is a fairy story about the great state the inflation ravaged economy is in.
oops
£18 billion surplus in 2012.
Does he have a glass of water? Brown does but there doesn’t seem to be one
90. Commentary by Statler and Waldorf would be good.
Is 1997 the new year zero.
Freakonomics II, inflation is 2-2.25%, so does Darling not pay council tax, drive a car, pay a water bill, buy bread and butter, or heat a home.
18 billion surplus? where the hell is that going to come from! the economy is slowing down, the gap between the tax coming in and money going out is widening, but in 4 years we’ll have a surplus!
96. I don’t think I’ve been able to listen to any of it. Just been reading the summary on screen
On the Kremlin theme..
From April 2010, all long term recipients of incapacity benefit will attend work capacity programmes
What ?
102.Wow, desperate times call for desperate promises….
104 I thought that’s what we were getting here on PB!!
103. F**k.
I just hope he leans over and drinks Browns.
Looking at Labour’s front bench scares me.
111.You did not really think that you would make any money out of a Brown/Darling budget did you?
Gawd this is dull - all statements of intent and no meat !
111 - is that how he got the job in the first place…?
The tories should aim for that, try to show that this budget is all statements and no substance.
Might put this on my ipod to replace mogadon.
106. That “surplus” is on the “current budget” - excluding all capital expenditure. It’s a totally misleading figure.
He slipped in, in a very understated way that Government departments are to find year on year £30 billion reductions in spending.
I missed any more detail. It is very hard to take that kind of spend out of a service without having an impact….
Ed Balls inane grin is driving me nuts…
How the heck have they kept to the golden rule after the Northern Rock debacle.
It is just a pack of lies which the economic commentators are going to rip to shreds.
Savings gateway - lol - what happened to “stakeholder” products ?
119. Isn’t that a cut in public services or is it only Tories who do that??
108 - What don’t you understand about that Harry? It is just saying that long term recipients of incapacity benefit will be subject to further assessment of their ability to work. I think other parties have been banging on about it for a while.
Does he really think that this flight of fantasy is going to wash?
He’s talked complete bollocks for the last 20 minutes.
camerons team will be chomping at the bit to have a go at this.
He’s succeeding brilliantly - he was brought in to be dull and he’s succeeding magnificently if somewhat stutteringly and nervously.
Is there a market on the first person on the front benches to yawn?
His budget is much better when muted
Great cut-away to Blinky Balls. Written all over his face was “That’s my job. I want that job….”
113. I should have known better.
If I ever meet Darling in the future, I shall grab him roughly by the lapels and demand of him; “How hard is it to take one or two sips of a f**king glass of water, you boring Scottish tit?!!!”
He can then bore me into not wanting to deck him.
Darling is drowning.
I’m sure Gordon will offer him a ring though, arf.
Why does Jack Straw keep doing that funny thing woth his mouth?
131 - that’s my first belly laugh of the afternoon!
Come on Darling, get on with it…
“There will be a capital fund of £12.5m to encourage more women entrepreneurs.” (from BBC website)
What??!
134. i was thinking that, its a nice idea, but shouldnt it be for all entrepreneurs? and where did the money come from?
134 - So they are going to buy a shop between them?
Big Brother is back. Road pricing means tracking cars, and speeding airport queues means taking fingerprints.
128. no it isnt, he is just presenting it in such a dull way. Did you miss the bit about 18 billion surplus in 2012? It’s fantasy, pure and simple, i find it hard to see how he can stand their and claim that.
I’m only half listening to this guff, but hasn’t half of this already been announced?
Has he said anything new or interesting yet?
edit: “hasn’t all of this…”
Fixed rate mortgages? Is this a step closer to euro entry?
” Road pricing ”
Missed that…. briefly, what did he say on that subject?
132 “Why does Jack Straw keep doing that funny thing with his mouth?”
He is trying to subtly eat his Werther’s Original without having to share them with the class….
135 - It’s sexism, pure and simple.
Didn’t Brown have an investigation into fixed rate mortgages 2 or 3 years ago?
Endless reports and investigations but nothing is ever actually done.
143. Either that or it’s a subtle attempt to suffocate himself. Understandable, under the circumstances.
142 — subsidising development of technology for road pricing.
112.Is this really ‘the cream of the crop’? Lord help us!
Anything that is apparantly going to cost us a packet so far? - or is it all smoke and mirrors?
Carrier bags!!
148 - on the bright side, just two years now (max) till this lot are swept out of office and into oblivion.
carrier bag tax!! what a plonker
The heckling is almost constant. If George Osborne fluffs his response to this trash he needs sacking. Unless Darling has a cut in income tax in the last paragraph to throw him again?
I think that Darling is delivering this quite well.
151. I hardly find ‘the other lot’ more confidence inspiring!
151 - and a plastic bag tax could be one of the final nails in their coffin. More nannyism based on a dubious premise. What a load of crap.
Doesn’t he know that when supermarkets banned bags in Ireland, sales of black bin liners went up 500%?!
re v153. It is Cameron who makes the response
The new homes target expires before the zero-carbon homes target takes effect.
153 - Given that Osborne’s response will consist of nodding in the right places when Cameron is talking, I doubt even he could fluff it too badly.
“Government review concludes that motorists could save money on fuel bills by buying smaller cars”
F**k me, who’d have thought it..?
152. Will been as as a puppet as Brown said that word for word.
Fags up: probably hits Labour supporters most.
134. Rather than a paltry £12.5m for women entrepreneurs, why not have a lottery that hands out £125,000 each to 100 randomly selected women?
What on earth is the point of a policy that will cost at least that much to administer…?
WomenBiz, a national agency.
Staff - £6m
Office and fixed costs - £3m
Advertising and website - £3m
Legal costs arising from Anti-Discrimination legislation - £0.5m
Handouts to qualifying women - £0
Presumably the new car tax bands will be buried in small print somewhere, sneaked out at some future busy news day?
55p on spirits. JESUS
154. Unless he has mentioned the word “prudent”, not well enough..
Carrier bags are great! They are stronger than paper bags! does he want us carrying around wooden boxes or straw baskets?
At least next time I’m down the pub I’ll be doing something for child poverty.
Who is the woman in blue being crushed in the bench behind Darling?
160 - They spent money on a government review for that!
Do over 80’s get colder than over 60’s?
Barely 50 minutes but it felt much much longer!
So the only interesting new announcement is an extra £50/£100 bribe to pensioners?
What a flop!
BBC not showing Cameron’s response then???
THE BBC IS ANGERING ME!!! I don’t want a summary, I want to see the tories rubbishing this pile of crap.
*ANGER*
172. So, a £50 sell bet on Sports Index could have netted £350!!
Oh well, I’ve only lost about £30.
171 - If you mean are their bodies less able to cope with low temperatures than somewhat younger people then yes.
165 - Is that 55p per litre? That’s a lot isn’t it?
Has he mentioned personal allowances? Stealth tax warning?
Cameron going on about the cost of living under Labour.
Presumably he’ll “cut prices at a stroke”.
Booze tax to increase 2% above inflation for the next FOUR years!…
What does that work out at exactly?
175. camerons reply will be on the news, and the panel will have most of it shown to them after a bit.
Oh here we go, I can calm down now
176. I made just over three quid when he mentioned ‘Northern Rock’. That’s a bottle of plonk sorted!!
Good attack start from Cameron. Pointing out that NR blasts the golden rule.
Good stab at Ed Balls.
Ed Balls
Awful, simply awful.
171, No, they die more frequently from being cold.
184. Just the once, eh?
Well done on the £3!
My first foray into Spreadbetting and I lose. Arrgghh!!
Not good for the nerves..
hehehe, any stab at ed balls is good
Nothing to remedy the hurt resulting from the abolition of the 10p band. I thought they might have done something on this. It is going to hurt Labour when the new pay-packets start reflecting this.
The tory team must have worked ultra quickly on this response, impressive in ferreting out the hidden figures.
“He didnt fix the roof when the sun was shining”
nice!!!
190. I don’t want to ‘appear’ cheap……..
This is good from Cameron. Keys into the national mood.
I would be grateful if someone could explain how borrowing of £43 billion in 2009 will transmogrify into a surplus of £18 billion by 2012.
no matter who’s running the country that just doesn’t seem credible.
the man behind cameron has his arm around the blue lady
Is the Labour front bench laughing at something we are not being shown?
178 - Large but I don’t think spirits have risen at all (even inflationary rises - remember unlike many taxes a freeze in booze/fag duties is a real cut) for a decade - I am not sure Brown ever touched the rate on spirits.
197,
All that tax were going to have too pay (plus the £18 billion is in fact B****cks.)
Does anyone have the exact time of the budget, I forgot to set the timer, though it seemed about 50 mins, anyone know the exact?
Cameron showing how to deliver a speech. Maybe Darling needs to take notes.
197 - It won’t it is a smoke and mirrors exercise.
192. Difficult to be sure until we see the personal allowances, but I don’t imagine he has much scope to increase them.
51 minutes
This is a much better budget response from Cameron than we have seen in recent years.
Dear god, we dont need Osbourne for Shadow Chancellor, can we just have Cameron do it??
This is his best briefed performance i have seen from him.
207. he has a lot more to work with this time, plus he has two targets, darling and brown.
I know i’m partisan, but this is an astonishing performance from Cameron.
207. He does look pretty commanding to me.
Whens the next poll out?…
200 - Yes, checked this now - 30p per litre would have been an increase in line with inflation on spirits so 55p is high but not vast (and nowhere near eliminates the ten year freeze). If you believe some people on this thread’s comments on inflation measures then it is a below inflation increase.
207 - he’s got a lot of material to use. Brown was a useless chancellor
what was Camerons kick in the Balls?
Has this budget finally turned Cameron into the next PM in waiting???
Lets see how the news headlines pick it up.
207 - but it’s still full of preprepared sound bites and doom and gloom messages.
He’d be better being more positive and cutting out the cheap debating society jibes.
Brown can’t bear to look.
GENIUS from Cameron against Ed Balls!
“I know he’s minister for children but he does not have to act like one” classic cameron
215. Ed Balls heckled. Cameron said something along the lines of “I know the Minister for Children etc. desperately wants to be Chancellor, another budget like this and he might get a chance”.
And as I speak another one! “I know he’s Minister for children, but he doesn’t have to act like one”
what joke did he make?
Kick in the balls part II ! Classic!
This is great. Having said that, it’s the easiest budget to attack in years.
both good, ed balls will go off and sulk now.
even clegg cracking the funnies “i didnt even see the prime ministers lips move”
Ta,
That it is a quality put down. Nothing Less than Balls deserves.