What about Hillary being on the ticket as Obama’s V-P?
March 12th, 2008
Is she worth backing at 5/1?
After the weekend suggestions from the Clinton Camp that the current delegate leader, Barack Obama, could join Hillary on the ticket as the V-P nominee there’s increasing discussion that she could accept it the other way round.
One of her most outspoken and influential backers, Governor Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania, says he would be happy to support an Obama-Hillary ticket even if it meant that his choice was in the number 2 slot.
Such a move could put her in a strong position in either 2012 or 2016 keeping her presidential dream alive. It could also maximise the vote for the ticket because they both bring very different constituencies of voters to the table.
A big question is whether, assuming he gets it it, Obama would be happy to go along given the bitter nature of the current battle? The answer, as is being discussed at the moment, is that he could come under huge pressure to agree to such a move if this, indeed, goes to the Denver convention and the decision is made by the super-delegates.
Several commentators, particularly ABC’s Chuck Todd, have been arguing that this might be the only way of settling the deadlock.
I’m persuaded by the argument and currently my bets are on Hillary for the presidential nomination at more than 3/1 as well as some money on Hillary as the V-P nominee at 6/1. My Obama position is covered by the 50/1 and 33/1 bets on him winning overall that I made in 2005 and 2006.
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What’s in it for Obama? Unless as you point out it’s the only way to secure the presidential nomination.
More to the point, what’s in it for the party, in particular Democratic candidates down the ballot from US Senator to dogcatcher? Unless its the only way to stop a war to the knife
Those “unlesses” are truly major factors in the calculation.
But you cannot ignore the huge fact, that Hillary would be a one-woman GOP turnout machine in EITHER position on the Democratic ticket.
Obama’s a professional politician - I’d have thought he’d go for it if he thought it would help him win the general election and he wasn’t too scared she’d poison his coffee. Even if he doesn’t, he might end up living with it either because of a deal with Hillary for her to end the race without trying to tear him down or because the superdelegates pushed him into it.
What’s less obvious whether the joint ticket would help him or not. That SUSA poll really made it seem like it would; Obama and Hillary did well in some totally different states. But that might just have reflected people’s preferences for the primary spilling over into what they said about the main race. And it’s harder to call how much she’d galvanize Republicans to turn out.
The only real problem with the joint ticket is having their campaign attack ads played back at them, but they can probably laugh that off…
From previous thred:
222 - I envy you & your dear lady’s recent excursion!
One thing about that Natchez Trace, after dark there is zero traffic and zero traffic enforecement (least that was the way it was years ago). So you can cruise along at say 60-65mph with your brights on with great visibility, esp. if theirs the moon is out.
But never tried that during deer season - and never would! And got a keep an eye out for the critters at all times.
Yes, did notice that Pearl River got better for Obama. Black precincts must have been slow coming in to the courthouse, likely in the more outlying parts; guessing these days most of the White Democratic vote is concentrated in Poplarville & Picyaune (and I am NOT making the last one up!)
And Obama ended up winning Hattiesburg, home of the University of Southern Mississippi. Plus he’s winning Oktibbeha County, where the county seat is Starkville (”Stahk-vull”) home of Mississippi State University.
Best news: Don’t think any part of the state was truly a “no-go” area for him.
Hey, Greenville’s not too far from “the Crossroads” isn’t it?
previous thred 224
Wyoming GOP event was actually county conventions (of previously elected precinct committee officers) NOT a true caucus. So turnout was small compared to WY Democratic caucuses.
2 - think the galvenisation would be extensive. Believe you me, there are PLENTY of voters who hate her guts in counties that she’s winning big tonight and in previous primaries.
They just aren’t voting in the Democratic primary. Of if they are, they’re following the Rush Limbaugh line. Though personally am skeptical how many rabid GOPers are actually doing that; think they’re likely cancelled out by Republicans voting for Obmama to kill off Hillary’s candidacy as quickly as possible.
For these, a case of country before party!
2. The number one rule of choosing a vice-president nominee is do no harm. Clinton clearly would harm the Obama ticket. Not only would she bring all the baggage she would if she were the nominee, but she’d also undermine his central proclaimed reason for running. The Republicans will highlight why he’s putting a polarising, dirt-slinging establishment figure if he’s trying to get past the “old politics”.
And superdelegates can hardly threaten it as the only way to back him. He’ll be going in to the convention winning the most delegates and the popular vote. Add in the fact that the superdelegates are making individual choices and are not a unified bloc, and there’s no “bargaining” to go on.
You also have to ask what she would bring to a ticket that he can’t get with someone with less baggage. There are strong women options, there are people who do better with Hispanics, and there are people with much, much more experience. Plus there are people who can appeal to Independents and people who represent swing states. Why would he choose Clinton?
Socrates@6: Couldn’t he answer the polarizing, dirt-slinging establishment thing with the “work with your enemies / uniter, not a divider / I’m looking forward to you advising me, Hillary” shtick?
But on the broader point, you and Sea Shanty Irish have convinced me. Not worth the risk for Obama, the superdelegates can’t force him to do it, and he has no need to accept a deal even if she offers him one.
for all you flaming ELVIS fans out there . . .
(and you know who you are)
LEE County (Tupelo) the largest population center in Appalachian/Northeastern Mississippi, voted 54% Clinton versus 44% Obama.
Which ain’t bad considering that in Tupelo the smart money says, don’t believe the hype . . . cause Elvis really did break his momma’s heart . . .
7 But stranger things have happened on the road to the White House.
Just ask (the spirit of) Eugene V. Debs!
7. The thing about Obama’s campaign is that it’s not supposed to be about him, it’s supposed to be about the movement. If he can’t even find one other person to share those ideals it doesn’t say much about the movement. And he’d be uniting with a proven divider to fight John McCain, historically seen as a uniter reaching across the isle. It would be a weak argument.
On the contest tonight, Obama is currently on a 22 point lead and climbing. This will be seen as a proper thumping. He also won the black vote with 91% to 8% - the biggest yet. The Clinton campaign successfully managed to alienate even more African American voters than previously - a heck of a task, but they did it!
No. Mike, have you been taking something you shouldn’t?
Your article gives it away, when you suggest that it would be a chance for her in 2012. Like, er, wait in the White House corridors, if not with knife in hand, then with the plan to stand against her own President for what would be his second term? Ahem.
Is or is not Hillary Clinton ruthless political ambition personified? As this article on timesonline has it, “The Clintons - a horror film that never ends.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article3510778.ece
No-one could describe me as anything remotely resembling a Republican, but if I were a US citizen with a valid voter registration, and it was McCain vs. Clinton, I’d be voting for McCain.
Obama campaign just released this brutally stinging memo:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/clintons_exaggerated_experienc.html
Looks like their best playing of the media yet. This will be poured over the next few weeks as the news channels will have no contests to talk about. MSNBC is also discussing tonight whether Clinton is deliberately trying to divide whites from blacks to win Pennsylvania.
7 That is a good point, that Obama could make argument that putting Hillary on the ticket was an act of unification & reconciliation. If anyone could pull it off, he’s the guy.
But why take the risk? Think that logic make little sense for many Clintonistas, including most of those who want her to keep on fighting.
After all, they would prefer her on the top of the ticket.
One big problem with the Clinton arguement that Obmama is unqualified to be President but a dandy choice for VP - besides it’s total illogicality - is that is comes across as very patronising to Obama.
Re: Geraldine Ferarro’s latest mis-speak, must say that we’ve had an amazing shower of incredible howlers from a wide range of candidate surrogates.
Makes “Rum, Romanism & Rellion” seem pretty tame stuff by comparison!
Though methinks the likes of James G. Blaine and Warren G. Harding would have found Elliot Spitzer on a spree a boon companion . . .
14 Forgot to note that the problem with Hillary appearing patronizing, is that it means she’s yielding the natural high ground for a woman candidate to Obama.
Indeed, one of her magic moments during her campaign for US Senator in New York, was during the debate with Rich Lazio (a boy sent out to do a man’s job) when he came across to many voters (espeicall women) as both patronizing and rude.
Women candidates labor under many disadvantages. One of their advantages is being able to accuse their male opponents of patronizing them.
Just don’t understand the Clintonista strategy on this one, not at all. Either desperate or dumb or perhaps both.
14 One big problem with the Clinton arguement that Obmama is unqualified to be President…
Is anyone. How do you judge? That statements comfortably eliminates anyone with fresh-thinking. Did it come from HRC HQ?
Enoch Powell said “Like the Roman, I see the Tiber foaming with much blood” (which he quoted from Virgil). The media said “Rivers of Blood”. But did the media quote from anywhere? Was “rivers of blood” a specific literary reference before Powell’s speech?
Comparing the Mississippi results with RodCrosby’s spreadsheet from a little over a month ago, I was quite disturbed to see that Obama’s result was only being reported as 60%, when the spreadsheet quite clearly stated that it would be 62%. I was just about to call up the Mississippi returning officer and tell them they should check behind the sofa for a couple of boxes they’d forgotten to count when I realized that RodCrosby’s numbers were excluding the other/spoilt ballots, and that combined with rounding error the state of Mississippi were reporting the correct result as per the spreadsheet, 62% to 38%.
All of which gave me an idea to deal with the Florida / Michigan issue: Couldn’t they just apportion the delegates according to RodCrosby’s spreadsheet? That would be fair and save everyone a whole lot of money running another actual election, since the outcome would be exactly the same.
Why would Hillary want to do it? The VP only has as much power as the President allows and Obama neither likes nor trusts Clinton so could she really expect a major role? In the Senate, she is a big figure and has a real chance of being majority leader in due course and has her seat as long as she likes. The move would also prevent her really from challenging Obama in 2012 if his Presidency goes poorly and whilst she will still be young enough to be credible (2016 is a long way away).
The only big advantage would be the opportunity to be President in the thankfully quite unlikely event of Obama’s death.
Amusing to read that Darling is bringing back the old Gladstone Budget box. Gordon’s trainees in 1997 obviously didn’t produce a durable product
Very sad goings on across the pond. Someone needs to get a grip on the situation. Obama reaction to Hillary, understandable though it was, has not exactly hepled the situation.
Seems odd to me to suggest that either HC or OB offering the other the VP slot would be enough to bring about a truce. I mean, how much of a consolation prize is it exactly?
I have no idea how the nomination will pan out - that’s what makes it so exciting. But with each passing day, a peace pact seems less and less likely.
What sad goings on? A couple of dementedly ambitious pols kicking shit of each other ain’t sad, unless you mean ’sad’ as in pathetic.
Sad - Pathetic? Yes
But also Sad - Sad. I may be in a minority, but I was looking forward to a Democrat in the White House. Not only now does it look less likely, I am actually beginning to warm to McCain myself. It’s truely amazing that a McCain led GOP could appear less divided than the democrats. Well done lads, you’ve screwed this up royally.
And the longer this goes on, the more McCain looks like the next President.
Would you want your life to be the only thing between Hilary and the Presidency?
I’m sure Obama’s heard of Vince Foster!
Hillary VP to Obama? Excellent idea. It would make Obama look ‘big’ and forgiving. A must for a successful president.
“You said what? But, hey, lets not brood on that—-lets move on.”
And why shouldn’t Hillary accept? Its the easiest way of making herself look both gracious and humble, thus solving her biggest negatives with one gesture.
Can I nominate Stephen Phelps [17] as the most insiteful post of the year so far.
I wish Sean would learn from Stephen’s pithy analysis of what is a complicated problem for us all.
I see the Mississippi with 99% of precincts in is now 61%-37% - a huge margin much bigger than the polls.
re 25. I don’t think you are in a minority Jonathan. I dread a McCain victory and think his talents are grossly over-rated. Many were on the wrong side of the Iraq decision in 2003 - yet he has continued to be an outspoken hawk. Just what the world does not need.
There is no doubt in my mind that the two of them running together would crush the Republicans because they would clean up the Democrat and independent voters without even breaking into a sweat.
Sadly, Hillary’s negative campaigning has made this almost impossible but I am curious to see what happens if Obama streaks into an uncatchable position.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
isn’t Obama already uncatchable in terms of delegates, baring some complete breakdown in his campaign.
Hillary as running-mate? Well, it would give her another incentive to see him lose. If she was offered it and accepted, she couldn’t realistically run again for the White House until 2016 if Obama wins this year; if he loses, she can have another punt in 2012.
I can see the sense from the point of view of the DNC - preventing another five months of arguing, negative campaigning and the frittering of tens of millions of dollars spent campaigning against themselves - but for the candidates? For Hillary, she’d become removed from real power (and would have that fact rubbed in it every time she had to chair the Senate); For Obama, would he really want a Clinton as VP? Why not just go the whole hog and pick Bill?
A joint ticket would make some sense to each candidate - providing they were on top - if it closed the race down, but isn’t that the point? While the race is still live, there’s no real incentive to accept second place on the ticket, and assuming Obama does eventually win, there’s then little reason for him to choose Hillary (though the ticket would work better for the Democrats the other way round in the unlikely event that Clinton comes through).
Does it really matter - I mean from a political point of view rather than a betting one. The American press and media, as right wing as ours and far more partisan, has spent months talking up Obama and as soon as he is selected will spend months talking him down again. They’ve got what they wanted; an inexperienced unknown to fight McCain instead of a serious contender in Hillary.
So McCain will go to the White House, for four years, but at some point we will all start to realise that America is now so endebted to Japan and China, that what he thinks is increasingly unimportant, and that real power in the world has moved elsewhere.
re 32. He almost certainly is uncatchable in terms of pledged delegates but the margin could be very small. Add onto that the uncertainty of Michigan and Florida and the sheer audacity of the Clintons and there is a possibility that he might not do it.
30. A huge margin, but based on an overwhelming black vote. I don’t think this will necessarily do Obama that much good, though it does depend on how it gets reported. If the story is ‘Obama landslide’, then he’s sitting pretty; if it’s about how he got the black voters and Hillary got the whites (and independents / Republicans?), it could be more damaging.
36- In any case it is really useful in terms of popular vote: he adds 100 000 votes to the existing gap.
36 A good point. But Dick Morris predicted that being seen to have massive black support would finish Obama off after South Carolina (iirc). It didn’t.
Racing OFF at Cheltenham today.
35,
True, never underestimate a Clinton. The convention is shaping up to be the biggest blood bath since Brutus did for Caesar outside the Forum.
38. I think Obama’s problem is on the other side. People know he’s black already, and picking up the African-American vote is therefore hardly a surprise in what is still a pretty poor part of the country (even if he’s not a Jackson-like ‘black’ candidate). It’s like if Romney had won the GOP nomination, there wouldn’t be a big surprise had he swept Utah.
The bigger difficulty for him is that he didn’t win the white vote - and indeed, lost it by quite some way from the figures quoted earlier in this or the other thread. Explaining that one away will be more difficult.
sorry to bring up the tories being nasty to the lib dems subject, however the lib dems have been even more loud in their criticism back. a week doesnt go by when clegg doesnt take a pot shot at PMQ’s, and he took a swipe at them in his conference speech at the weekend. in fact, they seem more interested in bashing the tories then bashing the government sometimes.
42. Indeed. Clegg seems happy to perpetuate the role of the Lib Dems as an anti-Tory Labour front organisation. Europe has a lot to do with this, of course….(dragged offstage)
39,
Thats bad.
OT,
Anyone know any good places to stay at or near Ascot? The management is going to Royal Ascot and I need to sort out a hotel for her?
Ta
29. LOL!
42. I do that get the still impression that Clegg’s preferred scenario is of the Lib Dem’s forming a coalition with Brown and not Cameron. In that light he’d need to keep at least forty LD seats and hope the Conservatives are no more than about 10 seats ahead of Labour else his hand would be forced, Tories or nothing.
39 - Racing OFF at Cheltenham due to High Winds (BBC) - Presumably the spread firms have already all moved down the spread of ‘x number if pints of Guiness to be drunk’ etc. type bets
30. Mike. The man’s barking mad! It’s not just Iraq but also Iran which he wants to invade followed by removing the ‘baddies’ from Lebanon…..he is Dr Strangelove but because he’s quietly spoken it doesn’t seem to be recognized.
Mike,
If you think that she is value at 6/1, then surely she is value at 25/1! That was the post made on here on 17.02.08 (from my blog http://kickinbets.blogspot.com) .
http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html
The strange thing was (if I remember correctly) I had no replies to my comment (either positive or negative). I’m not sure whether this is because I am not a regular contributor (I’ve only posted a handful of times over the past few years) or some other reason…it is maybe a case of one post being missed amongst the arguments.
Keep up the good work! - if it wasn’t for this site, I doubt whether I would be on Obama at 16-1 and McCain at 20-1.
Apparently 60% of Obama supporters in MS would like it, and 40% of Clinton supporters would like the reverse:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/black-vote-helps-obama-claim-mississippi-794482.html
which is odd in view of the divisive exit poll stats which I quoted on the last thread. Presumably the voters are saying “I don’t like the other cnadidate but I want a united ticket since it’s been so close”, which sort of makes sense. The article is also interesting about the postal vote plan for FL and MI, the first I’ve heard of that.
Assuming Obama does win, as now does seem overwhelmingly likely, he’s going to need to do *something* to reach out to Clinton fans if he doesn’t want significant defections from the Democratic coalition, and I don’t mean a splodge of warm rhetoric. The sort of comments we’ve had from Stephen Phelps and Rod would make me consider supporting McCain if I were American, and there will be quite a few cheesed-off female and working-class voters who could easily sit on their hands if not persuaded. Leaving aside the specific case, if one wins a divisive contest by a narrow margin, it’s mad not to be conciliatory afterwards. Leader of the Senate seems the more attractive offer, if the current incumbent can be persuaded to join the Cabinet or be Ambassador to Moscow or something else in the party’s interest.
48
I would have thought the Americans have had enough of, ‘invading’ don’t think there’s much appetite for another conflict.
We shouldn’t forget how big Iran is, four times the size of Iraq, with a pop. of 66 million: a tough nut to crack!!
If McCain came up with a plan to, ‘Invade’ Iran, the Pentagon would go into meltdown, that Admiral would be joined by every senior officer on the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Contrary to popular opinion, senior military officers are very cautious about committing forces, they know all of the things that can go wrong, and normally do.
Labour (or the Tories for that matter) would no more go into coalition with Lib Dems at Westminster than they would with the BNP.
If there is a “hung” parliament then, whatever the arithmetic, there will be a behind the scenes deal between the two larger parties, and the Lib Dems will be, as far as possible, excluded from the business of Parliament.
8/1 Clinton to be Democratic VP nominee still available here.
Plenty of under-used telephonists standing by.
re 48. Roger - that must be the first time that we have been in agreement on anything which gets me seriously worried.
51 - “We shouldn’t forget how big Iran is, four times the size of Iraq, with a pop. of 66 million: a tough nut to crack!!”
No. Given the disparity in military technology, not too difficult to crack. A nightmare of Kafka-esque proportions to occupy, though.
@55:
Pah. We don’t need to do that! We just run in, bomb its infrastructure into the ground, kill a few million of ‘em, hang the Ayatollah and the President, et voila! A secular, vibrant liberal democracy will simply spring up in its place!
This fact is brought to you by the Bush and Blair partnership.
53. Lol - is Cheltenham bad news for Darling ? Nothing to distract the media from his tax hikes - sorry I meant green measures to save the planet..
Shadsy,
Your post reads “Hand your money over, your backing a loser!”
57. We’ve had to cut the price on “Plastic Bags” being the first of a list of phrases used to 14/1.
56 - quite.
China and Russia were remarkably quiescent over Iraq, I doubt they would be over Iran.
Jeff Randall on the Cheltenham/Darling connection.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/12/ccjeff112.xml
56
I love the smell of irony in the morning.
OB into 1.32 on betfair. HC available to lay at 4.5..
OB price still looking generous IMHO.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/americano/551761/how-much-nastier-can-this-get.thtml
Interesting piece in the Spectator.
VP this VP that who cares…
I betya 95% of the UK population don’t even know who the current VP is. It’s irrelevant on the ticket.
Who is going to be President is the important bit.
65. i doubt mccains going to bother hiring anyone or his campaign, just photocopy the stuff clinton and obama are sending out.
Exactly. The Democrats are going to snatch defeat from he jaws of victory. They will only have 2 people to blame.
@66:
Balls.
Cheney is one of the primary architects of the neoconservative program that Bush has followed. Calling him, or his office, an irrelevance is ludicrous.
Also, if the worst does happen to President Obama, that VP becomes acting president, so it’s ridiculous not to consider his or her potentially enormous influence on the POTUS.
49. Good work Chris. Will keep an eye on your blog.
Did Gordon lie as part of the non-election campaign, when he spoke of reducing troop numbers in Iraq?
“Last October the prime minister said the intention was to reduce the number of UK troops there to 2,500, starting in the spring, subject to military guidance.
But BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said he had been told it was “highly unlikely” the figure would drop to anything like that amount.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7291400.stm
I really haven’t a clue what we are still doing in Iraq (other than spending billions we could better employ in this country).
69. I knew I would get someones back up! What you say is partly true, but we had Prescott and Blair still got in!!
Nine Vice Presidents have succeeded to the Presidency.
However, who remembers Vice Presidents Charles Fairbanks, James S Sherman,Thomas Riley Marshall, Charles G Dawes, Charles Curtis, ALban Barkley, all of whom served in the 20th Century?
In most cases the defeated VP candidates are even more obscure, FDR was an exception.
In 1936 the Republicans considered nominating Sen Styles Bridges to run with Governor Alf Landon, this was in the days when songs and jingles were very important and someone dreaded “Landon Bridges falling down”. The nomination went to Cl Frank Knox, resulting in “On the rocks with Landon Knox”
Obviously those who succeeded to the presidency on the death became very important, TR, Truman and Johnson spring to mind, equally the horror that befell commentators when Chetser Alan Arthur stepped up is well recorded.
Gordon has been caught lying before. Just look at Boris Johnsons point of order at PMQs a few weeks ago.
71. could make PMQ’s prickly next time, cameron will want to use that on his lies and spin narrative.
@73:
Well, there is that. People who make powerful number twos often fail spectacularly when they get their hands on the top job.
I wish I could think of a recent British example to demonstrate…
71.That is Brown’s weakest point, his ability to be less than truthful when it suits. He has got a lot form for this, just remember the timing of the troop withdrawal figures announced on his visit to Iraq, some of his claims unravelled before he even arrived home.
And then there was that budget announcement last year…
Many of his speeches over the years don’t bear close scrutiny.
Is this the most mendacious government in history? Any possible alternatives (the reigns of Charles I and King John spring to mind as possibilities, though that isn’t exactly comparing like with like)?
73 ““On the rocks with Landon Knox”
Let’s hope no reviewers pick up on this for our own “Tom Knox”!
Reading that Spectator article, I think that the fears that this will destroy the Democrats’ chances are a bit overblown. By far the most likely scenario here is that Obama will have a clear lead in superdelegates, as well as everything else, by the time the voting has finished, if not sooner. At that point it will probably make sense for Hillary to suspend her campaign and officially throw her support behind him. After all, if her campaign has failed to do destroy Obama after all this time and there are only a couple of months until the convention, it would make far more sense for her to withdraw and give the Republicans a try. (On the off-chance that the Republicans do serious damage by the convention and Obama really does look like a loser, _then_ she can come back and have a proper battle, which she might actually stand a chance of winning.)
Assuming the Republicans fail kill off Obama, he’ll be spending all his time fighting McCain on Democratic turf, and fending off some really nasty attacks. That will improve his ratings with core Democrats, and most people will forget all about whole Hillary Clinton palava.
If the Republicans do find a line of attack the sticks and really make a big mess of Obama, there is the risk of a damaging split at the convention were Hillary to make her move with the superdelegates to get them to change their minds, ignore the delegate count and nominate her instead. But if Obama really is looking doomed at that point, people on both sides are likely to be a lot more sympathetic and feel less like they’ve been robbed (as they were going to lose anyway) and it will validate what she’s been saying all along.
I wouldn’t mind being on the rocks with Tom Knox. We could talk about Europe.
Good Morning Campers ….. mind you who’d want to camping in this weather !! ….. Peter the Punter empty the chemical toilet pleassssssse. Mutton Vindaloo doesn’t suit his fragile constitution !!
Some observations on Mississippi and wider.
The 62/38 split is at the larger end of expectations for most commentators. I thought upto 25 points :
1. We may have seen an aspect of the YELDARB in operation - Obama outscoring the polls by some distance when he’s the frontrunner.
2. Obama added almost 100k to his popular vote lead, now around 750k. See later.
3. It’s almost certain the delegate split will be 19/14. The good news for Hillary is that Obama just failed in numerous ways by tiny margins to make the split 22/11. Obama will however scoop the add-on delegate that Mississippi has.
………………………
Doing some calculations on the back of a ciger box and skewing the numbers in Hillary’s favour I can’t see Obama not having a 250K plus lead in the popular vote at ENDEX.
This allows for a 15 point Hillary win in Pennsylvania and decent wins in West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and a handsome re-run win in Florida. Against that Obama taking North Carolina, Montana, South Dakaota and Oregon by narrower margins than expected. Michigan a virtual tie. Add in Obama’s caucus wins currently not allocated in Texas, Maine, Washington and Nevada.
So Obama will win the popular vote, the pledged delegates and the number of states and Hillary’s lead in the super delegates diminishes by the day.
78 — Conservatives denying plans to double VAT?
Will Darling do anything about income tax for the low-paid who will otherwise take a hit next month when the 10p band abolition kicks in?
And what was worse: the way Brown presented it or that none of the expensively educated MPs on either side realised what Brown meant by abolition?
84,
Brown, because he hurt most the ones a labour government is meant to protect.
76,
Recentley Steve Mclaren England football manager couldn`t even qualify for Europe.
However some conservatives might think that a success.
82 “Obama just failed in numerous ways by tiny margins to make the split 22/11.”
For which she can thank mischief-making Republicans! They split 75/25 in her favour and voted in large numbers yesterday. But if they will insist on having these “open” primaries….
84. it was noticed by the lib dems and tories, who did mention it at the time. however, it was so vague and hidden behind other announcements it was difficult to understand at the time.
test
With ref to HC as potential VP Dem candidate.
Mike - don’t take 5/1 with PP. Ladbrokes are 8/1 (I’ve had some 10s before they cut a few days ago). Alternatively W Hill is 20/1 HC to be VP.
[84] Tried to reply but must have used a naughty word… in a phrase: not this year. And when it does come it will probably be an extension of tax credits - yeugh!
73. I remember Dawes, if only for the fact that he wrote the song “It’s All in the Game”…
NEWS RELEASE (Strict Embargo until late this afternoon)
The betting world was rocked today when Peter the Punter, of this parish, had his best day ever at Cheltenham.
Said Peter, “Its a Triumph, I knew that if I stuck at it long enough I would come good.”
84.On top of increased food, energy and petrol bills over the last year, this group is really going to be hit hard. And then we have the increased mortgages and council tax bills in some areas. What is worse is the fact that Brown knew that the uptake in working tax credits will not match anywhere near the loss of the 10p band, thus saving him even more money from the hardest hit group. To expect people to rely on a badly implemented and incompetently run system like this is downright cynical.
56
Just let me know in advance of the bombing of Iran. I’ll buy oil futures big style. Anything less than $175 per barrel would be disappointing..
The high winds causing problems in Downing street, Turbulence hits Downing Street
One other snippet from last night that many PBers may have missed is that CNN have called the Texas Caucus for Obama.
Their analysis of the available returns gives a 56%/44% split and a delegate split of 38/29. Added to Hillary’s 65/61 primary win gives a figure of 99/94 in Obama’s favour.
Final returns from Texas are expected in the same time scale of Boris Johnson utilizing a comb !!
91. Darling needs a good budget to make sure he gets to deliver another one.
My gut instinct is that he’ll be cautious, but that he’ll also try to distance himself from Brown in some key ways. Remember that the Cabinet doesn’t see the Budget until just before it’s delivered (I think), and that Brown always kept the contents close to his chest.
Darling will also be well aware that his Comprehensive Spending Review announcements, with Gordon sitting next to him grinning at the Tories, made him look like Gordon’s puppet - which was disastrous for his political and financial reputation.
96 - Hmm, all good fun. Personally I think there will be less bad news in the speech than in the accompanying documentation as usual. The evil fags will get clobbered for the umpteenth year in a row, I reckon that other than that it will probably want to be a dull and forgettable budget.
98. that entire speech damaged him and brown very badly, and gave the tories a massive opportunity which they took with gusto. they wont make that mistake again, although i do see the tories making some headway this time as well.
82.
But, what about the Washington state democratic primary which followed the caucus? The caucus had all the pledged delegates. Do the irrelevant? primary votes get added on?
Also from the Texas Primary/caucus I believe Obama won the most pledged delegates and votes, so therefore according to Bill Clinton (Hillary had to win Texas and Ohio to continue) this show should now be over…
The press have not pushed this because they want the race to continue…
O/T Following discussion the other day of successors to Brown, Hills have put their market online again. They have Balls at 5/1 Ed Miliband 12/1, Straw and Denham 25/1. David Miliband is their 5/4 favourite. I’ve topped up on Ed Miliband and John Denham.
11,000 ID cards missing, hehehehe.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5h-trenvpkvpR_vnFZarh rSDi1sJg
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5h-trenvpkvpR_vnFZarhrSDi1sJg
hope this one works
93 - LOL
96. There’ll be plenty of wind in the chamber later on, as well.
98. This budget will be a total irrelevance, given the economic picture. The end of year spending review will be far more interesting - it may end up being a mini-budget of sorts.
Thoughful essay on Powell, by Roger Scruton
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1696507/posts
102. Balls at 5/1 must be one of the worst value bets in history.
102. Is that for Prime Minister only, or next Labour leader?
I think Straw and Denham look like good value, given the potential for political and economic turmoil ahead.
104 So a couple of regiments of the British Army could be comprised of Al Qaeda infiltrators? Comforting….
This Govt. is utterly wretched. It seems incapable of undertaking even the most basic of management functions.
It’s almost as thought fate doesnt want I.D cards, it keeps throwing up stories that scare more and more people off them.
Obama has won 17 contests with over 60% of the vote, Clinton just one and that was the “huge” state of Arkansas which her hubby has had well greased up for the last 30 years…
Do they have free bus passes in the US when you reach 60….
Assuming that Hill goes on fighting to the bloody, bitchy end of her manky stumps, when can we expect that Obama will have an absolute majority of the bound delegates?
Will hill are offerering 1/3 that Darling will mention Northern Rock by name in the budget. Seems like a licence to print money if you ask me.
111. It’s possible, just possible, that the recurrent departmental crises, mismanagement of agencies (CSA, HMRC etc) and losses of public data have something to do with the changes in public management introduced by both Conservative and Labour governments since the mid-1980s.
The prevailing values of public management have shifted from resilience, robustness and mutuality, to frugality and payment by results (see Christopher Hood 1991). The point is that the old civil service (which had its faults!) wouldn’t have messed up in the ways that govt. agencies have recently done.
The big news of this budget will be by how much growth forecast’s for this year and next are cut by, and how by how much borrowing is forecast to rise over the next couple of years. If the numbers on both counts are bad for 2009, then that will be the final nail in the coffin for a 2009 election.
What is odd about the American race is that the most vitriolic posts are about personalities not issues. Not just here but on the US blogs too.
116. But the numbers we will get today will not be realistic.
118. Yeah, but it’ll be an indication of where growth and borrowing are expected to go over the next year or two.
113 “when can we expect that Obama will have an absolute majority of the bound delegates?”
On 6th May - Indiana/North Carolina - is the best estimate.
117. But isn’t that practically always the case in US elections, especially to the presidency? Even in general elections, policy positions are taken as reflections on the candidate’s character: a candidate’s health care policy marks him out either as “socialist” or “in the pockets of the big drug companies”, whilst his foreign policy proposals make him “weak on Communism/terror” or a dangerous warmonger who can’t be trusted with the red button.
Actually, it reminds me of British politics of the 40s and 50s… “Some sort of Gestapo”… “Whose finger on the trigger?”
119. Probably not a very good one.
The real budget bad news will be in the small print as ever - usually takes until later in the evening to sniff out the real stinking bad news.
I’ve seen a few comment on here from the likes of Herdson and others about Obama’s poor showing among white voters in MS.
Aside from the issue that obviously in MS a lot of democrats in this southern state are still more comfortable voting for a female democrat than a black male democrat (don’t count on this trend outside of similar southern states). I haven’t seen much comment about the Republicans that voted in the democratic primary.
According to CNN’s exit poll, 13% of voters questioned admitted to being republicans and 78% of those voted for Hillary.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/11/exit-polls-clinton-draws-republican-support/
Good to see some common sense in the news for once.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wear/7291597.stm
120 - Which will be the cue for the Clinton campaign to suggest Super Delegates are not bound by either the popular vote (if she’s not won that) or the pledged delegate total… i just cant see what’s in dragging this on and on for Clinton, if they go to Denver and actually have to be beat on the first ballot (which they would be) then it’ll take till the end of the Summer for the Dems to even have a nominee, thats a heck of a lot of sunshine for McCain to make hay during.
Nancy Pelosi’s rejection of the idea of a Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket as impossible was very interesting… cant be long before folks like her become even more forceful, lots of Dems have a lot riding on the Party holding even expanding it’s margins in the Senate and House, not to mention Gubernatorial and State races and the one candidate who seems to play well on that level is Obama - In the main Democrat office holders are very nervy about the impact of Clinton on the ticket.
Add to that the fact that PA is about to get bombarded with Clinton’s “kitchen sink” stratergy and Obama’s response… all this in a key swing state?! - the Democrats are actually going to spend six weeks racking up each other’s negatives in a state like PA, it’s utter madness on their party IMHO.
123 - Don’t know. Often things just aren’t spotted by the opposition although it is of course a tough job to think on your feet. If I recall correctly from last year, Brown stated in terms that the basic rate tax cut was paid for by abolishing the 10 pence rate but Cameron/Osborne simply failed to spot it in response (although Campbell/Cable did so).
125 I suppose it shows that going to court is the biggest gamble of all.
124 - A key question is whether those were hard Republicans who wanted their man McCain to face Clinton (the Rush Limbaugh comment suggests at least some were) or whether they were soft Republicans who might be tempted to vote for her in November.
127. the lib dems had a bit longer to prepare a response, seeing as they had both the labour budget and tory reply to sit through, whereas the tories had to reply straight afterwards.
129. I think thats obvious - they want to drag the contest out and possibly get HC to get the nomination with a substandard mandate.
130. If you’d rather the Tories went third, I’m sure that could be arranged.
129. Well, you’d have to look at the demographics. It’s possible that some older women Republicans would like to see Hillary in the White House. She’s won some of these voters over in New York.
You never really get to hear the lib dem response, as the BBC always return to the studio after the tory response. Only get to hear a small snippett of it on the news afterwards. Also watch the commons chamber half empty by the time Vince Cable gets up to speech. The man may talk sense sometime - but no one gets to hear it.
124 - Worth remembering that MS (like OK, TX, AL, GA, SC, TN and AR) has far more registered Democrats than Republicans, the thing is they vote Republican at the national (and often the local) level, so called “yellow dogs”… IIRC Edwards did well amougst them in ‘04 but its not likley they’ll come out for any Democrat in November.
The racial divide is a southern thing, a rural southern thing in particular, interesting to note that in LA and GA (which have significant urban centers) Obama did far better and the racial divide was less marked than in places like SC, AL and MS (which dont have the same scale of urban centers).
134 - I find you rarely even hear the Conservative response - at least throug TDP coverage.
New SUSA poll for North Carolina :
Obama 49% .. Clinton 41%.
http://www.surveyusa.com/
134.I don’t think you even get the Conservative response on some media outlets, they are usually desperate to get to their discussion panel.
136. Correct - last year they cut it. You have to head to Sky news.
Obviously I’d much rather pay my licence to cut to the studio to hear Evan Davis read the treasury press release than hear the opposition.
126 “It’s my turn, dammit!! Don’t you people see that?” Cleopatra Clinton, Queen of Denial…
She does seem determined to make her Party go all the way to delivering the final and public humiliation of a vote to defeat her at the Convention. But then she has lived with the “Invincible Clintons” tag for so long, perhaps she just cannot comprehend that failure is an option.
Personally I could stomach Hillary as VP, though I suspect Obama may fear assassination if she’s his number 2!
134 - It is party leaders rather than shadows for the Budget response (so Cameron/Clegg not Osborne/Cable) although the shadows obviously get a word in later.
140 - But all the way to Denver, that’s September! Even the Clinton have got to see that by the begining of June they will either be in a position where they can cobble together a questionable coaltion of her pledged delegates and a majoirity of the Supers to claim the nomination or not (and it seems unlikley)… the likes of Pelosi, Dean, Edwards and Gore have got to be able to affect some kind of conclusion by the begining of the summer, otherwise the Dems could be throwing away, not just the presidency, but wrecking their chances right down the ticket!
Camerons respone will be interesting, they’ll have people feverishly beavering away behind the scenes trying to decipher the speech as its being said.
134. He should join a serious party, then.
Re 142. Why is that? Surely the shadows presumably have more knowledge on the subject, especially if they need to think on their feet like last year with the income tax changes. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the shadows to deliver the response?
144. Will be interesting to see how Cameron and Clegg use PMQs to set themselves up for the budget.
NB timings : PMQs at 12 followed by the budget at 12.30.
143. No, it’s August 25-28.
147. i think cameron will concetrate on the military losing all those cards, and maybe ask a bit about the budget. clegg can ask what he likes, brown will either ignore or insult him.
143 Ben, I entirely agree with you - that is what they should do. But Hillary seems to be in a parallel universe, a fading presence unable to acknowledge the world has passed her by. A Norma Desmond figure if you will:
“You’re Hillary Clinton. You used to be in the White House. You used to be big.
Hillary: I am big. It’s the voters that got small.
150. Best to avoid financial topics I’d say - small chance of foot shooting if Darling has a rabbit in his hat.
152. good point, better to bring up ID cards then.
oh yes, and I think the top comment will be ‘this is the right thing to do’, darling used it a load during his NR speech.
151 - The sad fact for the Democrats is that she’s got the credibility to keep this thing running and running… slight o/t Romney campaign manager came up with a good quote the other day “For the Democrats to not nominate Obama, would be like killing Santa Claus in front of the Kids”
.
146.It would also make more sense to give the Shadow briefs a week n to read and decipher what has turned into an epic tomb of factory figures and sleight of hand.
140: There are good explanations for her staying in that don’t rely on character flaws, too…
If she intends to drop out anyway but wants to trade for something she wants, she needs to make it look like she’d blow everybody up or she’d have no leverage. (The “Crazy Fearsome Cripple Gambit” used so successfully for years by Kim Jong Il.)
If she’s raising more money than she’s spending, it makes sense to stay in for a while, especially if her campaign hasn’t yet paid off her debts to herself.
Finally, rumour has it that the consultants she’s working with are making out like bandits on commission, so they probably have very little incentive to tell her the game is up. In which case it’s just a matter of time until someone smuggles her a copy of RodCrosby’s spreadsheet.
The thing about all the above explanations is that once she decides the game is up, it could wind up very suddenly and very quickly. Most likely after Pennsylvania or the last primary, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see her pull out in a week or so, after a bunch of superdelegates commit to Obama.
153. ID cards, lies over troop numbers in Iraq, Defra F&M report, credit crunch - there is a rich seam.
Darling had better be a thirsty b*stard during his budget.
I need him to drinky-drinky for me to make some cashy-cashy!
(Oi, anyone reading this at Westminster? Please slip some salt in his coffee or sumthing..)
114. Yup. Would have thought there is a 90%+ chance he’ll mention Northern Rock *ONCE* but I doubt he’d dwell on it.
1/3 sounds very good.
The cynic in me, though, thinks hmm… somebody else *must* have a draft of his budget script, with all the words in it. It’s not exactly top-secret is it? Have the bookies got wind somehow?
One leak, a keen eye and some good mental arithmetic and they could make a mint.
157 - “Most likely after Pennsylvania or the last primary, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see her pull out in a week or so, after a bunch of superdelegates commit to Obama.”
I was thinking about that myself recently. You can get quite long odds on Obama winning Pennsylvannia - presumably such bets will be voided if she pulls out beforehand?