The Keith Olbermann “special statement”
March 13th, 2008The above went out on MSNBC last night and might have an impact.
Democratic nomination betting is here.
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The above went out on MSNBC last night and might have an impact.
Democratic nomination betting is here.
Mike S. I’ve tried twice to post a coment and link to Clinton’s response to Ferrarogate, but I think its got spammed for some reason.
Mike,
How will this efect your betting position?
I’ll try another link to the Clinton response to Ferrarogate :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080312/clinton-s-apologies/
Can an American here give us Brits an idea of Olbermann’s status in America. Who would be a comparable British media figure and how much weight will his words have?
Bloody hell. Olbermann is *furious*.
I’ve never seen him so cross. Hillary has some serious questions to answer after this about her credibility and suitability even to carry on, let alone be POTUS.
Hillary’s got a big problem here: Olbermann is *listened to* by Democrat faithful. And he’s just punched a huge hole in her credibility beneath the waterline.
Maybe that quiet word Howard Dean’s been putting off having with Hillary needs to come soon.
From previous thread - the OB price is defying gravity again - from 1.32 - 1.37 in 24hrs after his Mississippi win.
re 2. I win whatever happens so I won’t be making any changes - unless the HRC price moves out even further
That just about sums up the difference between our political and broadcasting cultures, doesn’t it?
Mike’s criticism of the BBC - an organisation that employed me as a news reporter, producer and programme editor for more than 10 years - is justified, because of its pathetic dumbing down of political coverage. But we have a long road to travel before our political news would find space for the opinionated ‘anchors’ that are commonplace in the US. Personally, I’d rather we kept to our traditions of giving people news reporting and balanced analysis and trusting viewers to make their own judgements. [I’m not saying this is always achieved, but it is the British broadcasting tradition.]
The clip above is a tour de force, but it is comment, not reportage. If Mr Olbermann feels so strongly, he should put himself up for election somewhere, to put his own views to the test. Otherwise, he should move into newspapers, where comment is expected, has a long and well-understoon tradition and is balanced by many other voices.
Whether you agree with Mr Olbermann or not, a national broadcaster has given him - an unelected commentator - a platform to attack a candidate for POTUS in the most direct and personal terms. That is not democratic, and it is not good broadcasting.
Now thats a good betting position.
3 I seem to recall that Ferraro’s husband was in business with a very prominent member of the Gambino family in the Eighties. I’d have thought she’d wish to keep a low profile.
Two comments:
(1) I imagine this will have a differential impact in the two races that matter now. It shouldn’t damage Hillary that much in Pennsylvania or the remaining races, because - frankly - those who plan to vote for her will have already factored in the notion that the Clintons might be playing the race card. And, as I suggested yesterday, many will have fairly limited news exposure. On the other hand, this damages Clinton badly with Democratic leaders and superdelegates who must be worried about how dirty Clinton is willing to get.
(2) Obama should state that, because Hillary won’t disavow these comments and doesn’t believe that he’s got where he is on merit, he couldn’t serve with her on a presidential ticket. He couldn’t be paired with someone who’s insulted him so much. That would give him the moral high ground, and reduce the potential pressure from Democratic leaders for him to pick her as his running-mate.
How hard can it be? Anyone who votes for Clinton is a racist. Anyone who votes for Obama is a s*xist. Anyone who votes for McCain is both.
Only disabled black l*sbians should be allowed to stand for office - or run weblogs, come to that.
11: More to the point, it makes it even harder for the superdelegates to nominate Hillary after she’s lost the delegate race.
Ezra Klein puts the point very well here:
http://tinyurl.com/372n7d
A couple of other betting implications:
- Makes Hillary for the presidency even more unlikely; In the unlikely event that she wins the nomination through superdelegate shenanigans, half her party will be very peaved and she’ll have a hard time beating McCain.
- With the bros vs hoes fracture opening up, it becomes more likely that Obama will want to pick a women VP. See Mike’s discussion of Kathleen Sebelius here:
http://tinyurl.com/35fbvm
I’d love it if we had newsreaders or ‘polemicists’ like this in the UK. His diction is excellent and he clearly understands what he’s talking about.
Next time BBC News is on, just listen to Fiona Bruce or Robert Peston and see the difference…
14. Yes, Simon S, it’s a long time - decades, probably - since I’ve seen any British broadcasting as erudite, intelligent and well-spoken as that. But it ain’t journalism, it’s polemic.
“Voluntarily or inadvertently, you are still awash in this filth.”
That’s gotta hurt….
Once again, the video link doesn’t appear on the home page [I am using Safari under Mac OS X].
Correction to the above: I see it now.
As I said in a previous thread Ferraro does have a point.
Olbermann’s reaction is totally 0TT about Clinton but ignoring that I totally agree with 8 above….this attack/comment is out of order on a national broadcaster and I find him more offensive than anything else now in this matter and what MSNBC allowed quite unacceptable.
Hillary leads Obama in PA, according to my projections.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/13/clinton-leads-by-1796-in-pennslyvania/
20. You state that HC and OB’s odds of the nominations are “about even” ? - you’ve gotta be kidding right ?
20 - Er, just following your link Matthew, “Barack Obama seems to have tomorrow night’s contest sown up…” You are aware the Mississippi Primary has been and gone aren’t you?!?
Adam Smith - it seems the moral is that if you stick on topic you don’t get noticed, but if you go completely off topic, you do!
In that vein and harking back to several in the last thread, Hamish McRae has a good piece in today’s Indy about how bizarre it is that Darling spent ages talking about footling changes like an extra £10 million for science teaching over 5 years (a few pence per pupil per year) and totally ignores mentioning anything about the £43billion unfunded black hole in his finances.
Matthew, the maths are utterly against her; the only reason for Clinton to stay in this race is “the Grassy Knoll Play” - her faith in the American people being so low that she thinks they will not allow a black guy to be candidate for President. That force of arms will intervene.
Well, if that is so, then America is not a place worth governing. And I’d like to hope that the odds on that happening aren’t evens.
23 - Yes and to put it in context to make up that 43bn he would need to up the basic rate of income tax by 13 pence in the pound!
23. that £10 million will have naff all impact on the problems with science in schools. too few teachers, poor equipment and a rubbish curriculum have crippled it for years.
24 - I don’t actually think that is Hillary’s theory. In fairness, if she has a good run in, solid wins in Pennsylvania and Florida re-run if it happens completing her sweep of the biggest states (although Texas is debatable) and builds up a consistent lead in national polls, then her bad run from Super Tuesday to the Texas/Ohio will be forgotten. She will then have a decent case to get the superdelegates to swing behind her, particularly if she promises to put Obama on the ticket.
Matthew is way off with his “about evens” point - 20/80 is right in my view - and I think she should now do the decent thing - but I think your argument that she is waiting for the assassin’s bullet is unfair nonsense.
25. Funnily enough, just a couple of year ago, Darling’s puppetmaster was confidently predicting that borrowing next year would be only £27bn, i.e. £16bn lower than yesterday’s forecast. Ever since then, the estimate has been ratcheted higher and higher…
28 - I wonder how many nurses we are borrowing? teachers? doctors? etc etc
There probably aren’t many of us, with this problem, but I actually can’t hear what’s said on the videos that you put up. I generally read this site in a library at the moment. Would it be possible to put a very short precis of what’s said? Just a sentence or two, so that those of us who can’t watch and listen can have some idea what’s going on?
Much appreciated.
24 MM. Clinton’s campaign is now in ‘Micawber Mode’ - hoping that something will turn up !!
Her number crunchers will have advised her that she cannot catch Obama’s popular vote, pledged delegate or state leads and her super delegate lead is eroding day by day. Accordingly she has to rely on the remaining unpledged super delegates to break for her in a vast ratio to become competitive. For that to happen the micawber mode will have to play out - an Obama personal scandal or a political gaffe of mega-ferrarogate propotions that fundamentally weakens and undermines his candidacy.
O/T
I just wanted to canvass opinion on this FSA edict on Northern Rock as i don’t think it is very professional:
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/registerNewsDetails.do?sid=1042
re 20 & 27. My rating is that HRC has about a 30% chance of getting it. The is less about the mathematics and more about my view that you should never underestimate Clintons. They desperately want to be back in the White House again.
28
£ 43 billion of unfunded public sector spending in 2009 at the same time that public sector spending is being cut and still the improvement in these services is marginal at best.
What a mess.
32. The point i am getting at is NR seem to being not only bailed out but being giving carte blanche authority - No questions asked.
Obviously it is an unusual situation having to nationalise a bank but…………………..
33 - They want it and are canny operators, Mike, but they all want it. McCain and Obama both have a more laid back style than old Hillary but I suspect they want it every bit as desperately and neither would be above pulling out some pretty low tricks to get it. I know Obama-fans would like to think he would, but if the shoe was on the other foot would their man really be writing his concession speech now?
34. Good isn’t it? After eleven years of dreaming, Britain wakes up to the fact that all Labour governments are basically the same. They put up taxes massively, generate colossal public sector waste, and end up running out of money. It will take many years to put this right.
From the last [but one] thread…[rowing back quickly]… I don’t actually BUY the Daily Mail, but I do have a look on the web when my patience will allow.
As for Brogan, I think Tory Homers go through to him specifically via their link [she says revealling more - now up to the thigh].
I understand the Daily Express has an increasing circulation whilst the Mail’s is declining!
As for ‘Ball Baiting’…Sean T’s prespective is something we can admire and enjoy, even if we don’t all share it.
Sean… he looks and sounds better from the other side of the world…after a drink [with less vat on it].
34. Bill’s already eyeing up the next group of interns….fat, ugly, dumb…..mmmmm…just like the last one…
As for Olbermann, pure class…..and we rave about John Humphries/Jeremy Paxman…don’t even compare them….
32, 35 I don’t think so, Martin. Usually I can be relied upon to be the FSA’s most bigoted critic, but in this instance all they are saying is that the two Head Honchos are recognised as being “fit and proper persons” (in FSA jargon) to do the job. Frankly, with Ron Sandler, they would have difficulty saying otherwise. Let’s wait and see what the FSA does about NR’s adverts, and its “treating customers fairly” methodology. Then let’s give them a kicking!
Re: previous thread.
Balls defence that he didn’t say “So what” is as pathetic as that of the character of “Tony” (Neil Morrisey) to “Deborah” (Leslie Ash) in the much-loved popular BBC sitcom during the 1990s.
If anyone recalls the episode, Tony and Deborah are alone. Tony is lying on the sofa, gazing longingly with repressed lust into Deborahs eyes. Deborah: The girl he has fancied, and desperately wanted to get into her pants with for years, is right next to him. He is a very happy man.
She, noticing his transfixion, asks him what he’s thinking.
Tony says; “I was just wondering what colour your bush is?”
Deborah says; “WHAT?!!”
Tony (stuttering) unconvincingly says; “Err! I just said.. I was…..wondering… what *CAR RUBBISH* is…?!!”
Deborah says; “Eh? What on earth does that mean?!”
Tony says; “Nothing. It’s nonsense! Shall we go and get a drink?”
*Que audience laughter*
Anyone who seriously thinks Balls didn’t say “So what” is either an idiot, deaf or has a huge ability to self-delude themselves in the interests of party loyalty (i.e. Labour party members)
*QUE LAUGHTER FROM OTHER PB POSTERS*
31 OK, I was being a tad provacative with the “Grassy Knoll Play” (so sue me). But I don’t rate her chances any better than 25-1 at this point. If there is something nasty in Obama’s woodshed, then if the Republicans know about it, they will sit on it until after the Democratic Convention. If Hillary knew about it, it would have come out by now. If any third party knows about it, they would have sold the story to Hillary for a mountain of cash. And with all the trawling that would have been going on, I’m tempted to say if there is a scandal, we would know about it by now.
As for the mega-gaffe - well, he has been pretty sure-footed so far. There is nothing yet to suggest he will make one. Hillary’s camp, on the other hand….
So - to anybody expecting Hillary to be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the US in November 2008 - I think you are on for a medal at the World Straw-Clutching Championships….
38. In my little business we have 3 papers each day in reception. Times, Mail and Mirror - so not to disappoint any viewpoint.
But, I can’t stand the Mail, but it is popular…is there a better mix of three papers to have?
My favourite gymnastic-twisting of an explanation to escape a quote was when David Willetts MP (I think) reported to the Tory PM that the Chairman of a supposedy-independent commission “wants our advice”.
He tried to dress it up by claiming he meant “wants” as in “lacks” - ie “He wants for our advice”. Nonsense, of course, and no-one was taken in, but brownie points for effort all the same.
I see there are some Eastern European online blogs who are advising Europeans living in UK to get involved in UK politics by voting to defeat Eurosceptic parties. See http://easteurope.proboards86.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1193223281
39 “Bill’s already eyeing up the next group of interns….fat, ugly, dumb…..mmmmm…just like the last one…”
Having seen Monica L in the flesh (so to speak), I would say that was extremely unkind and ill-informed. She has the most astonishing raven blue-black hair I have ever seen. Quite captivating….
31/42 - I don’t think she needs anything massive to happen, just consistently good news for her (which plainly isn’t happening today) leading to solid wins in Pennsylvania and Florida (if re-run), decent results elsewhere and a solid national poll lead. That will not deliver her the normal delegates but provides a real case for superdelegates in the context of a “dream ticket”. Likely? No. Ludicrously unlikely? No. I say 20%, Mike puts it a bit higher.
43 Guardian, Sun, and Telegraph would be the best three paper combination I can imagine for base-covering…
40. Thank you for your comment.
Given the lack of strategic planning maybe one has to make allowances.
On a political side (No trolling today!) combined with the budget and other political infliences. Labour have some really difficult times coming as they have sown seeds of a really virulent nature that will choke the life out of them.
Was the budget really that bad? Directionless, no give aways and exposes the state of the public finances. yes i agree with all of that but.
1. Nothing chronically offensive.
2. we knew about the state of public finaces anyway
3. the child benefit and winter fuel allowances increases give a fig leaf to Labour Canvasers.
I think people are fairly cynical about budgets. This will have done Labour few favours but little harm either.
44 MM. I look upon the Obama refusniks somewhat akin to those who refused to believe that the ‘unsinkable’ Titanic would and indeed had sunk until a bloody great Obama iceberg holded the old girl and she slowly, inexorably slipped beneath the waves !!
It’s going to happen and the Clinton orchestra may try and play out some stirring tunes on deck, but in the end they’ll pack up their instruments and head for the lifeboats.
43, 48 Private Eye, Lib Dem News and the FT, anybody? “You shall know the truth, and the truth shall set you free!”
52 Augustus. Beano, Harpenden Bugle (Readers Wives) and the Jacobite Times.
“You shall know how ‘Desperate Dan’s wife’s boobs influenced the Stuart succession!”
52 You win!
50 - Yes, for all the bluster on yesterday’s thread, Darling turned it into a non-event precisely as he intended it to be.
The one issue is that he could have imposed severe pain now (e.g. withdrawing the 2p change) in the hope that he will have rabbits to pull out of the hat nearer to the election. He hasn’t and has instead gambled on his bullish forecasts which are undoubtedly at the top end of what others are saying. He could well be right - economic jitters at the moment may very well be exaggerated. But equally, he could be wrong and have to impose major pain at a less convenient time close to an election.
51 Indeed - although there are still those hereabouts who see the distress flares as exuberant fireworks!
51 PS Jack, do you remember the Titanic well?!?
Carlyle Group on verge of collapse:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7293663.stm
46: My father always claimed that Monica was a “nice girl” who had been very badly treated by Clinton and the press. In the last few months of his life the only thing that he showed any interest in was when Monica was doing a local book signing but my mother refused to wheel my father in his wheelchair to attend.
What worries me about the whole insidious affair is that what on earth will the Republicans do when Barack Obama gets the nomination - I can not see how Hilary Clinton can crawl back from the gutter to get on track again - I am sickened by the belief that I supported her campaign in the beginning - and these comments are disgusting and morally repugnant - even if they did not come out of her own mouth and by a surrogate they still tar her campaign and the above video shows how much damage she is doing not just to Barack but the chances of him winning the White House too - is this the real agenda - if I can’t be President you can’t either !!!!!!
30.
Transcript here http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23601041/
58,
If thats true, does any really believe we are not going to hit a recession.
50 I would think the doubling of the number of pooer people paying a maringal income tax rate of 70% was pretty awful - 1.8 million will now pay an enormous amount of income tax - any other ‘child poverty’ measures are a laughable waste of ink compared to this stark fact.
why Cammo won’t commit to restricting income tax to those earning more than about 10-12K a year I don’t know.
52. Agreed Augustus. I’d have thought The Tablet, the Morning Star and the Racing Post would be an ideal combination for Jack W.
57 MM. I was in the first flush of youth !!
……………
BTW …. a few days back I noted that some Dem bloggers were indicating that the California delegate count had moved to a net gain of eight toward Obama from the original estimate. Here’s the detail :
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/obamas-california-comeback-295/
What is Clinton playing at? A comment from the TAPPED archive - http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=03&year=2008&base_name=clinton_08jerry_brown_92#104991 - might be near to the truth:
58 - its not the Carlyle Group, it is the separate Carlyle Capital Corporation. Peston explains:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
Meanwhile, Gold has just crossed $1000/ounce, first time ever……
On the budget, ‘money for kids and old folks winter fuel, paid for by 4×4 drivers, boozers, smokers and non-doms’ is not that bad a ’story’. Brown was always accused of being over-optimistic on his forecasts - but was generally right…..
64 JP. That works too.
I have just sent this letter to Senator Clinton
Senator Clinton,
I was a former supporter of your campaign - even after the comments by your husband in South Carolina I though then his comments were misconstrued - how mistaken I was.
I am shocked by the comments of your surrogate Ferraro who is nothing but a racist in name and in action - I urge you to condemn without reservation these comments which have no place in a modern society.
Barack Obama did not get where he is due to his skin color nor did you get where you got due to your sex. This is a message from the heart the damage your campaign is doing to the Democratic party with this incessant infighting and racist comments is unacceptable.
Please realize that both you and Barack would make excellent Presidents - and this country needs a Democratic President - please step back from the crevice and denounce all those on your campaign who have used the tactics of racism to smear Barack Obama.
I was with you all the way until these latest comments but I can not in all my conscience as a gay man who faces discrimination daily support a candidate whose campaign is tarred with racist comments and refuses to distance themselves from them.
I can not be the only person turned off by these repugnant comments and are you really wanting to be supported by those who are not - who are willing to accept that racism has a place in modern society.
Please think hard about what you are doing both in a moral capacity and a personal capacity …
66 - IMHO the Clinton plan is scorched earth for now. Stop Obama winning, and hope she’ll pick it up in 4 years. Vile people.
67. What price did Brown sell all that gold $250 an once?
Another costly mistake.
Brown makes Frank Spencer look like a “comptent” individual.
I have some sympathy with Baskerville’s comment above re ‘opinionated anchors’. Perhaps there is room for both.
The greatest problem is surley insidious partiality masquerading as neutrality.
The political stance of our news outlets is often subtle.
Channel 4 news is excellent. It has a left liberal bias which is evident but, generally, not undermining. I say this as a right leaning bit of a ‘mixed bag’ [quite at the back!].
It comes from a point, not a party. They are sympathetic to an issue and will roll behind the stance, not a party [eg ID cards].
I can respect and appreciate it without feeling it is neglecting to give contrary views or is being lazy and patronising.
It gives the lie to those who say ‘Tories attack the BBC because it doesn’t support their line’. Neither does Channel 4 news but it comes with a clear perspective.
Contrast with the BBC, who simplify and summarise [ie edit out any contrary views and produce a oneliner that has come from the press release of a political party - usually Labour] and by impication as the national broadcaster, suggest they are the middle ground.
It often ignores even the most obvious quick rebuttals.
Laziness/bias - either way it is poor news coverage.
Neutrality is always going to be tough call but it was interesting that the Aucshwitz story, covered by guidelines - was actually better reported.
71. Frank Spencer for PM!
67,
Your (deliberately) ignoring the $21 billion that goes along with it. Brown forecasts are generally wrong, sold gold at the bottom of the market.
Unfunded spending is now £16 billion more than forecast.
63. People on low incomes pay very low levels of income tax. The problem of high marginal rates on extra earnings is the result of the interaction of the tax system with the benefit system.
You can’t really get round this unless you introduce a basic minimum income scheme for all inviduals and let them earn whatever they can on top of that. But that would be incredibly expensive, and the income tax rate to fund it would be pretty high.
69. Goodness how incredibly pious and self-important. Are you an American, by any chance?
Olbermann was still quite fair to Hillary.
‘It is all her advisers fault’.
Wasn’t the Iraq War all Rumsey’s fault?
The judgement of a Commander in Chef?
64 - It’s amazing if you read the religious blogs, the sheer unadulterated bile directed towards ‘Tablet-readers’. They are they ecclesiatical version of ‘Guardian-readers’, except that the hatred they inspire in conservatives is completely without compare!
73 Martin. Owwwwwwwwwwww Betty ….. the number ten cat’s just done a whopsy in the public finances !!!
78.
76 Sally. “… Commander in Chef?”
Jamie Oliver for President !!
63. But that was last years budget. this is Nulabor and they don’t care about the poor. the change creates more winners than loosers and they’ll be concentrated in seats they need to win.
63. One of the saddest consquences of Labour’s foolish benefit and tax measures will be to drive its own core supporters into the arms of the BNP.
Well worth checking out a summary of the last fortnight from a guy called Bill in Maine on http://www.dailykos.com - half-way down there is a brilliant advert for movie-making services too.
So much for only Fox is biased in the US. MSNBC obviously puts an Obama supporter as a lead anchor. Per se this is fine, so long as it’s made obvious this is his personal viewpoint (he did preface it this way, but how about on other matters?). Or does MSNBC pretend to be fair and balanced like Fox?
84 Peter2. Not so. In the past Olbermann has been strident in his defence of Hillary from GOP attack dogs, which is why this first ‘Special Comment’ against a Democrat carries more weight.
Has anyone commented on Nick Clegg’s comments on party funding yet?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/13/partyfunding.liberaldemocrats
63
The tax and benefits is system is complex and penalises the working opoor cos Governments dont’t spend the intellectual time to sort it out.
(After all, many of those affected will not vote).
As far as Cameron and the Budget is concerend , offer no hostages is the message.
Very sensible.
Anyone - but anyone - who believes the Budget will be met is deluded. The last Budget got the forecast for 2008 wrong: about 1% too high. Anyone who knows anything about forecasting knows that if you cnnaot forecast one year out, your credibility for future years is Zilch. Uncertainty increases as a function of time.
Newsnight Last night showed Conservative 1992 forecasts with reality and compared it to where we are today. The Conservatives were grossly optimistic then: the implications for Darling (and us) are ominous.
I expect some time in the next two years an emergency tax raising budger or an acceleration of yesterday’s future tax rises.
Anyone think retail sales are going to hold up with household budgets squeezed? If you do, then Darling will meet his targets. If not, VAT receipts will fall significantly.
As for his poverty actions, any good will be offset by increased unemployment and lower wage rises.
It’s all rather clear to anyone who looks at most economic statistics…
84 Interesting that Brits seem to think this OpEd from Olbermann is out of order. Do we have any reason, other than our own (UK)tradition, for believing that OpEds and opinion do belong in newspapers but not on TV? (see post 8 from Baskerville)
Edward Morrow (I like that Olbermann ends with ‘Good Night and Good Luck’) was a great broadcaster *because* by attaching his name to what he said, he was forced to stand by it, in the face of the McCarthyist witchhunt.
I think there is a greater danger in the false claims of (or failed attempts at) objectivity, than a Fourth Estate that is comfortable accepting that it is inevitably part of every story upon which it comments, and embracing that truth openly, and visibly.
I think that the way we condemned the BBC yesterday, when Americans are reading British newspapers online more than ever, implies that the notion of ‘objective’ journalism is falling away, and may even be an impediment to quality. The partisan nature of UK newspapers and US television seems to produce output of higher quality than British political TV coverage, or lightweight American newspapers. As long as the political position taken is openly admitted, I see no problem.
86. isnt that all exactly what cameron said? the only party blocking change is labour, who want the block union money but dont want anyone else to have anything similair.
Dow Jones is dropping quite a bit today, I notice. Thats despite the money the Fed poared into the markets on Tuesday.
90 - It hasn’t opened yet.
90,
It will the Carlyle Hedge fund that is going under along with the problems at Bear Sterns. Thats a lot more debt right offs to come.
Are you sure? On my screen its showing that its down 199.45?
91 - Yes it has - Daylight Savings came into effect in (most places in) the States last weekend - so the US markets are open 1.30pm to 8pm UK time.
everythings down by the looks of it.
Dow is is down 96 points.
Latest Rasmussen General Election tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 44%
McCain 44% .. Obama 43%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_2008_presidential_election
Are you all blind?!
The falling FTSE is a sign of our unparalleled economic strength!
Gold’s nice and high too. In fact, I read an article on the London Stock Exchange website (my life is one of thrills) which advised those with gold jewellery to get them re-evaluated and reinsured as the value of gold has risen so sharply recently.
Good job we didn’t sell tons of the stuff when the price was at rock bottom, eh?
Down 143 now. So more bad news coming. Gold going up (nice safe haven)
Crude price going up. Doomed, were all doomed.
This raises serious questions as to what happens to Obama unning up to the G.E. I can’t see race relations improving you know…..
re 48 the doctors’ mess here swears by the Sun for keeping them informed as to what the man-in-the-bed is thinking.
r e75 why not have negative income tax? If you earn less than the personal allowance you get 20% back for each pound under (and paid through PAYE), reintroduce child tax allowances as well and scrap all the child credit nonsense. All Brown has done is take money off the poorer families by scrapping the 10% rate, made them fill out 40 page forms to get it back, employed thousands of HMRC staff to do the calculations to pay it back to them, and then sacked all these HMRC staff to save a few quid with the result that the system is now impenetrably complex and close to collapse.
99. Bear Stearns down another 12% - http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABSC
97 - I got a fair bit of good-tempered stick from our incomparable friend Sea Shanty Irish, for implying that Pennsylvania was a swing state. He reckoned if the Dems couldn’t hold PA, they were cruising for a serious defeat - I’m now wondering how much it would cost to get the word ‘vindicated’ tattoo-ed on my forehead…
I would normally say this strengthened Ed Rendell’s chances of VP under Obama (which SSI thinks is ridiculous - he’s probably right) - it would re-unite the Obama and Clinton factions, and help in a big state (as well as the Exec experience claims), but given that Rendell said he thought PA was not likely to vote for an African American president (more honest than vituperative) I think he may not even be in with a shot.
Rendell has been a supporter of the Big 4 Strategy (find a Democrat who can win OH, PA, FL, MI) or what Daily Kos calls ‘Ignore-46-states strategy’. He is a pragmatist, and could be very useful to Obama - interesting to see how he responds to the Geraldine Ferraro story.
Thank goodness, Ferraro has quit, I was getting worried…
From ConHomes monthly questionaire about what Tories should do to try and stop their stagnation in the polls
“We need to draw up a list of seven or ten things that will change under a Conservative government and ensure that that list of pledges gets into the hands of every voter in the country.”
A pledge card that’s an original idea. And they wonder why they cant get over 40%!!!
106. they’ve regularly been over 40% in various polls, and thats a tory supporting website, not a tory run website.
106. A pledge card that’s an original idea.
At least no-one’s suggesting they do a shadow budget.
84. MSNBC has shows dedicated to opinionated anchors of all stripes. Carlson Tucker is a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, Olbermann the equivalent for the Democrats, and Lou Dobbs is a very bloody minded economic and social populist who detests both major parties. Fox News, by contrast, only has extremely conservative anchors.
But the main issue isn’t the opinion pieces. Fox reports news entirely selectively. They deliberately miscontrue actions to blame the Democrats, and even when the GOP has unarguably done something wrong they report the story “Liberal media’s hypocrisy” and try to bring up something from ten years ago where the Democrats did something akin to the same thing, even if the events were clearly different.
104. Considering how competitive Obama is making the South, I’m wondering whether he’ll choose a likeable white Southerner to really scare the GOP. They probably wouldn’t win many Southern states, but they would force McCain to have to defend himself there, where he’ll struggle to get out the evangelical vote. Southerners also tend to be liked out West, as long as they’re not too religious - and Western states could certainly turn blue this election.
At last the democrat internal conflict comes to a head.
“Awash with filth” says Hill’s ‘good friend’ Olberman
Learned at least something from hubby Bill then?
[58] - Is it just me, or do the last few paragraphs imply that the central Banks are effectively nationalising [some of] the losses that private Banks have made recently. Is that right?
Latest Rasmussen Primary Tracker for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 51% .. Obama 38%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary
110 - I agree entirely - Obama has the perfect opportunity to play well in the South, given that there could not be a weaker Republican than McCain for engaging with the social conservative base of the GOP.
If Obama could win Alabama, Georgia, S Carolina, Louisiana, and Mississippi through boosted black turnout and evangelical stay-at-home, he would be able to win 270 even without OH, PA, TX, FL, MI, WI, and MN. If Democrats get engaged in those places, he run up a cricket score (or US equivalent).
No Democrat has ever won the White House without winning at least some of the South. Before 1960 it was solid Democrat, Kennedy won most of it (NC, SC, GA AR, LA, TX) with Nixon failing to win any EC votes in AL or MS, Johnson kept some of it (TX, AR, OK, TN, NC, KY, FL), Ford won pretty much all of the South, and Clinton carried AR, LA and either GA or FL when elected.
The strategy of ‘Gore plus one’ or ‘Kerry plus one’ is not where Obama should be focussing.
Apparently McCain supports the presidents veto of a ban on waterboarding; should be a gift to the democrats based on his earlier harsh word towards Giuliani and Romney who supported it’s use and painting McCain as the successor to Bush.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/03/09/MNBHVGLVO.DTL
Keith Olbermann nails it again. The BBC would never have someone like him because they can’t afford be anti- or pro-government. Neither would most of the other broadcasters except perhaps Sky. But Murdoch is way too clever to put Sky too far out on a limb. He needs a friendly government as well. I think what Olbermann shows is the power of the networks and the First Amendment over the powerful national governmental and non-governmental institutions.
114. Yes, I think Obama has northern liberals in the bag, as well as the obvious black vote. He also does pretty well with rural, mildly religious midwesterners and westerners. The groups he needs to be looking at improving his standing with are Southern whites, urban industrial workers and Hispanics. I think he can win over Hispanics on his own, given how disgusted they are with the GOP, and how McCain won’t be able to be able to be immigrant positive in any way. So he needs a VP who can appeal to the first two groups.
What he needs is a more credible John Edwards.
The Democratic Governor of Kansas Kathleen Sebelius looks like a better and better choice for Obama’s VP.
115. Expect a lot of this. There’s about half a dozen issues where McCain’s views are so out of touch with either the Republican base or Republican donors, that he’s going to have to constantly explain himself in contorted ways, lose his base, lose his money or get a reputation for flip-flopping and expediency. This is why I think McCain can not win this election.
[75,63] - That is, or was, a policy of the Green party, to replace most benefits with a “Citizen’s Income” paid out to everyone (so not involving a large form, or having to update your income details, etc) to be paid for by an increase in general taxation (so admittedly for some people it would be a bit of a faff to set it up with little/no net benefit to them).
However, the poor do not pay “very low income tax”, they pay 31%, when you include National Insurance, whereas the top rate is 41%, also including NI.
So we’re not that far from a flat tax already, though I’m sure that many proponents of a flat tax would like to conveniently ignore the NI aspect, thus introducing regressive direct taxation if they ever got the chance.
Obama isnt going to carry the South, if he’s the Dem nominee there will be big Black turnout but that wont be sufficient to put him any where near winning in places like LA, MS and AL… although both NC and GA are states that if he does well nationally a very high turnout amongst Blacks paired with a strong showing amongst liberal and moderate suburban whites (think places like Atlanta, Raleigh etc…) could become competitive - but the South as a whole? Not going to happen.
112. If you are wondering whether the taxpayer will eventually carry the can for the banking sector, the answer is almost certainly yes. That’s what nearly always happens in banking crises, I’m afraid…
117/118
For Hispanics and the CV - Richardson
For Women and urban-industry workers - Sibellius
For Southern, White men - Mark Warner (instead of Senate for VA)?
All very good VP candidates…
117 “I think he can win over Hispanics on his own, given how disgusted they are with the GOP.”
Why are they disgusted, Socrates? Was there some big issue or another that I have missed? Or is it the ilegal immigration debate?
121 - You’re right, Obama’s not going to carry the South, but I think he should put the effort in, and carry at least one or two states there.
Great for the party, his mandate, and history dictates he may need a couple of those states to win overall
Someone has just been arrested for running onto the runway at Heathrow, clutching a rucksack.
It was either a terrorist or one of the candidates for London Mayor protesting against the third runway. odds on which one?
121. I never said he would carry the South as a whole. But he could pick up one or two and threaten to carry a whole lot more, which would force McCain to defend territory he should be taking for granted.
Missouri, Virginia, both Carolinas and even Texas could be brought into play.
118. Sebelius does look like a very promising candidate. However, I think a white man would play better in the South than a white woman, due to concerns about Obama not being as “strong” as McCain. And for the reasons I listed above about potential flip-flops on domestic issues, McCain will try to make his campaign about foreign policy - a perceived weakness for Obama. Obama really needs this in a VP.
123. I would be shocked if its Richardson. I don’t think people who haven’t lived in the US can quite appreciate how different having one non-white on the ticket is to have an all non-white ticket. It would just be far too much of a risk to win over a group that should go Democrat anyway.
Mark Warner I think is an excellent candidate, but his good standing in Virginia really will make the difference on whether or not the Democrats get that seat. Getting close to that golden sixty senate seats will be a big aim of the Democrats this year, and they probably won’t want to lose that.
Anyone know the source for this or can verify its truth? It was in a comment on Guido, and if it is true it looks as if Labour are expecting losses in the London elections, perhaps.
“Ken Livingstone could be the biggest individual winner from the Budget. Members of the Greater London Authority and the Mayor of London are named in Treasury documents as beneficiaries of the extension of tax-free severance payments, available to MPs who fail to get re-elected. Sheena Hay, of accountants Grant Thornton, saw the clause in the Budget Notes which means if Mr Livingstone does not win the mayoral election on May 1, he can get up to £30,000 more taxpayers’ money tax-free.”
124. Yes, there was a very reasonable two-sided immigration bill sponsored by Ted Kennedy and John McCain, which secured the borders, set motions in place to deport illegal immigrants that had broken the law, and set a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the US (about 15 million). The President supported it, and it was a big part of Karl Rove’s plan for a permanent Republican majority to bring in the Hispanic vote, who are seen as natural Republicans - all about God, hard work, family and low taxes.
Unfortunately the GOP establishment failed to appreciate how much it had inflamed prejudice and tension in its base, as well as giving platforms to bile-filled pundits. This turned on them as the base and talk radio started going on about how we would be rewarding illegal immigrant criminals. This angers Mexican Americans, as the US has kept up the pretence of being against immigration legally while encouraging it to bring in cheap labour in actuality. The Republican base demands that all illegal immigrants be sent back home, and be forever banned from getting US citizenship. Republican congress members got worried and voted against the bill. And there was a lot of anti-Hispanic prejudice that went on to boot.
128 I’m sure that’ll cheer him up. Apart from that, Labour could only really expect to lose one seat on the London Assembly, Enfield/Haringey.
129 There’s no big demand among ethnic minorities in this country to enfranchise illegal immigrants. Is it different in the States?
129 Thanks, Socrates, very illuminating. But if McCain was one of the sponsors of the Bill, wouldn’t he be seen as one of the Good Guys, and thus over-ride any prejudice against his party?
131. No, but this country hasn’t tacitly accepted illegal immigrants for decades. Illegal immigrants have worked openly across the Sunbelt, particularly in the Southwest for this time. Big business, especially agribusiness, have encouraged lawmakers at the state level to accept them, to get cheap labour for businesses that wouldn’t otherwise be profitable paying workers the minimum wage or above. The States have liked it because it allows for economic growth without having to pay for entitlements. This dual standard is seen by most policy makers in both parties as something that needs to be addressed - to avoid having a shadow population living untracked in the country, while bringing in standards to prevent illegal immigration in future. Recent estimates have suggested the cost of tracking down and deporting the 15m illegal immigrants would involve quadrupling the budget of home security.
132. You would think, and it should be a mitigating factor to prevent huge turnouts from Hispanics. But he has now denounced the bill, said he “got the message” and wouldn’t sign his own bill if it ever landed on the President’s desk in the future. Hispanics feel they have been betrayed.
131. There’s also the fact that the vast bulk of immigrants, legal and illegal to the US are of one ethnic minority: Mexicans. Most legal and able-to-vote Mexican Americans have family and friends who are here illegally.
134 Yes, that would be a big difference. Ethnic minorities here come from all over the World, so while members of one group might be sympathetic to members of the same group who are here illegally, they wouldn’t be sympathetic to members of other groups who are here illegally.
119. Good article underlining your point:
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20080313_The_Elephant_in_the_Room__McCain_must_change_views_on_social_issues.html
133 Hell’s teeth! He sponsored the Bill, and now says he has seen the light and will vote against it? You’re right: the Hispanics must detest the guy.
I dislike the idea of state funding fo0r political party’s as Clegg is suggesting but if we must have it then lets go down the Power route as he is suggesting. At least the funding is linked to an individual act on behalf of each citizen rather than alife support welfare check for dead parties. many voters might actually use the £3 as a form of PR and split there vote and there money.
The other option would be to alloow gift aid on donations to political parties. Keeps a link with encouraging individuals to give.
The trackers look interesting. the virtual dead heat in the McCain/Democratic match ups will help Hillary as there is no sign there that he’d be much better than her. 13% lead for hillary in Penn is less than in most recent polls. Is he surging as usual?
138, state funding’s an awful idea. The taxpayer shouldn’t have to pay the bills because political parties are too incompetent or too corrupt to run their own finances.
139. With an opt in on the ballot paper, a taxpayer doesn’t have to pay the bill if they don’t want to.
Betfair in recent days
OB for Pres price falling , Dem nomination price rising.
HC for Pres price rising , Dem nomination price falling.
Weird ?
138 - No way you would split the vote and the money. Plus if you are looking at £3 donations via votes and considering what 25million + votes everyone donating and the taxpayer would be saddled with a £75million pound funding requirement.
138. Clegg sure knows how to pick topics that resonate with the public - abstaining in the commons, Europhilia and state funding for parties - give his advisors a raise !
140, that seems slightly odd to me. Surely people can join and donate to political parties without needing a little visual reminder when voting?
140 - No way that they would just take the money from those who ticked the box. If they did they would then have to know how individuals voted thus destroying the secret ballot.
140. So do those taxpayers pay extra taxes then? If not, then everyone is effectively paying for it, even if they don’t realise it. Imagine two taxpayers paying £100 each.
Taxpayer A doesn’t tick the box. His £100 goes into public services.
Taxpayer B ticks the box. £10 of his goes into funding parties, and £90 goes to the public services.
Thus taxpayer A is paying more for public services, to allow taxpayer B to fund political parties.
don’t know if Coldstone has already posted it but a rather good summary of the budget yesterday for those still interested
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/budget-live!-20080312789/
147. actually this is the link http://tinyurl.com/39hc86
146. No i think that it would work more like this. Imagine three taxpayers paying £100.
Taxpayer A ticks the box for party 1.
Taxpayer B ticks the box for party 2.
Taxpayer C doesn’t tick the box.
£93.33 goes to public services for each of them and £6.66 goes to funding political parties.Both parties receive £10. The money would be taken from all taxpayers equally, but how it is spent would be decided democratically.
125/127- I’d grant MO and VA as very much being swing states between Obama and McCain… Texas and the rest of the South is just too big of a leap IMO, these are places with very solid Republican bases of support even now (perhaps even more so should Obama be at the top of the ticket)… but perhaps if he really builds up a head of steam he could put places like GA and NC in play, but beyond that I dont know, but i agree that big black turnout will force the GOP to spend more in the south… most interestingly a big black turnout could really help the Dems in the MS and GA Senate races, both are long shots right now (although MS probably less than GA), but a big Black turnout could really scew the result.
145 - That isn’t the suggestion. By opting out, you would be asking for the money to go to general public spending instead. That of course isn’t the same as dipping into your own pocket.
On Morris Dancer’s point, a lot of party funding issues aren’t down to incompetence or corruption (although some are). Inevitably, a lot of people with the money to donate are closely connected with particular businesses. If decisions are then made which help those businesses - even if for totally legitimate reasons - there is always a suspicion of corruption. It simply goes with the territory and has happened and will happen regardless of who is in office as long as significant donations are permitted.
149. So taxpayer C has to pay to prop up parties he doesn’t agree with.
149
But then taxpayer C IS paying the bill… just a fractionally lower bill than if he had ticked the box. Unless I’m missing something?
138
I guess individuals that choose not to vote wouldn’t have to pay for this nonsense?
Political parties, at national level, are quite capable or living within the amounts of money they raise. It’s only because they (all) squander money that they’re strapped for cash.
151. Again, the “opt outs” are paying more for public services than the “opt ins”, thus subsidising the ability of “opt ins” to pay for the parties. Thus everyone ends up paying.