Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
March 14th, 2008
Has Labour Lost Its Core Working Class Supporters?
It has become fashionable to argue that Labour has alienated its core working class supporters, in favour of middle income supporters in marginal constituencies. A good example of this was written by Seamus Milne in yesterday’s Guardian , and plenty of other left-wing commentators, such as Polly Toynbee, Roy Hattersley, and Dagenham MP, John Cruddas, make the same point.
Usually, the argument is that Labour’s core supporters have lost out economically, although a variant of this argument holds that it is mass immigration, and New Labour’s social attitudes that have alienated such voters.
Fortunately for Labour, this really isn’t true, with some important qualifications. At the last election, according to MORI’s aggregate survey Labour led by 23% among the poorest voters, in social groups D and E. This is quite clearly borne out by the fact that there is a clear correlation between the level of deprivation in any given constituency, and support for the Labour Party. Of the twenty most deprived constituencies in the country, only two aren’t held by Labour with massive majorities. They are the Speaker’s seat and West Belfast. By contrast, both main parties were level-pegging among middle income voters, in 2005, and among groups A and B, the Conservatives only enjoyed a lead of 9%, which explains why Labour can win a seat like Finchley and Golders Green, with the second highest average income in the country, as well as making a clean sweep in Glasgow.
Labour’s heartlands have not done badly out of this government. Huge sums of money have been redistributed from London and the South to the party’s strongholds in Central Scotland, the urban North, and South Wales. Unsurprisingly, those strongholds have largely continued to elect Labour MPs with hefty majorities. There are a few qualifications, however.
Firstly, even in many of its heartlands, Labour has faced intense competition in local elections. In places like Sedgefield, Derwentside, Barnsley, Wigan, Mansfield, and Doncaster, new local parties and independents have made big inroads into the Labour vote. In Barking and Dagenham, and some other authorities, they have lost ground to the BNP. Overall, the party has polled around 34% of the vote in Metropolitan Boroughs, in the last three rounds of contests, down no less than 19% from 1996. However, despite some quite impressive votes for independents, and the BNP, in a handful of constituencies, there is no real sign that this support can be transferred to Parliamentary level. Many people who vote for independents are expressing dissatisfaction with their local Labour party, rather than with the government.
Secondly, turnout has fallen to a very low level in many safe Labour seats. The Butler and Kavanagh guide to the 2005 election puts turnout at 55% in safe Labour seats, 6% below the average. That certainly suggests some dissatisfaction with Labour, but is worth noting that for quite some time, turnouts in safe Labour seats have been below average. Equally important, people who don’t turn out to vote don’t pose any threat to sitting Labour MP’s.
Thirdly, and unusually, both George Galloway and Dai Davies were able to win safe Labour seats at the last election, the one standing for Respect, the other as Independent Labour. Even this is not unprecedented though. Communists occasionally won safe Labour seats in the past, and deselected Labour MPs have sometimes been successful as independents
From its own point of view, Labour should ignore those who demand more of a core vote strategy. Labour has its core vote in the bag, and the next election will be won or lost in Middle Britain.
Yesterday was Super Thursday, with no fewer than ten by-elections contested.
London Borough of Brent - Queens Park: Libe Dem 1242, Labour 851, Conservative 292, Green 239. Liberal Democrat hold with a strong swing from Labour. This is one of the wards that goes into the new marginal Hampstead and Kilburn constituency.
London Borough of Harrow- Marlborough: Labour 972, Lib Dem 628, Conservative 507, BNP 94, Independent 74, Green 71. Labour hold. The Liberal Democrats leap-frogged the Conservatives into second place.
Cotswold District - Water Park: Lib Dem 648, Conservative 519. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative with a huge swing.
Middlesbrough Borough - Gresham: Labour 584, Independent 377, BNP 135, Lib Dem 78, Conservative 44. Labour gain from Independent.
Middlesbrough Borough - Marton West: Conservative 993, Labour 413, BNP 170. An easy Conservative hold.
Oxfordshire County - Grove and Wantage: Lib Dem 1901, Conservative 1786, Labour 382. A narrow Liberal Democrat win. Both the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives advanced strongly at the expense of Labour, and the Greens, who did not field a candidate this time.
Oxfordshire County - Wallingford: Independent 867, Conservative 386, Labour 69. Independent gain from Liberal Democrat, although it appears the Independent was supported by the Liberal Democrats.
Telford and Wrekin Borough - Horsehay and Lightmoor: Conservative 358, Labour 172, People’s Association 145, Independent 110. Conservative gain from Independent. This gives the Conservatives control of the Borough Council, so long as they retain the Mayor’s casting vote.
Telford and Wrekin Borough - Wrockwardine: Conservative 918, Lib Dem 306, Labour 141. Conservatives hold easily.
Vale of White Horse District - Wantage Charlton: Conservative 760, Lib Dem 731, Labour 177. Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, although there was a small swing to the Liberal Democrats, compared to 2007
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Are we expecting any polls this weekend?
The local by-elections seem to be quite kind to the LDs recently. Could we hit the magic 20% in national opinion polls? I would say very soon.
And Sean - thanks again. Good analysis as ever.
Re: VP choices on the last thread.
Anybody got any money on these two?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=H9ZyZCsRJyM
And this guy is a real one to watch for the future:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=BkPL-XBXNTs
I think the way that the media report this tends to reflect the feelings of journalists who are disillusioned by Labour, rather than the voters themselves.
That said I do think Labour’s hold on its core vote is weaker than it was. Among pensioners and the over 40s it’s still quite strong - but it seems obvious to me that among the under 40s tribalism is weakening (indeed as it is for the Conservatives over time).
‘London Borough of Harrow- Marlborough’ - Which Constituency
Thanks Sean.
Looks like a very good set of results for the Lib-Dem’s, good for the Conservatives and very poor (but not disasterously poor) for Labour.
3 Hmm the day Obama gets a lobotomy or Clinton. Biden dark horse Secretary of State for either. That is it.
5. Harrow West
“Middlesbrough Borough - Gresham: Labour 584, Independent 377, BNP 135, Lib Dem 78, Conservative 44. Labour gain from Independent.”
I think it’s a Lab hold in a split ward
Very interesting article.
The whole point about Labour now is they have a stranglehold on government. Why? They have damned in their core vote through the use of postal voting. Very cunning strategy in the current status quo but when the landscape suffers a massive quake. Labour will be ripped asunder as things will never last for ever! Labour heartlands are irrelevant for the reason being: The people in them don’t tend to respond to positives - just negatives about Tories who cannot be trusted……..
In addition the large mass employers of the coal mines, steel works etc have all gone and so the type of state socialism whilst looked upon by our bearded socialist friends with glee - can never really make a come back. So many of our bearded leftie friends don’t bother to vote or look to other ways to express themselves.
Latest Presidential Poll for Ohio :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 40%
McCain 46% .. Obama 40%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_2008_presidential_election
Thanks sean, your slot a joy as usual.
I can speak with some authority on this subject. My father, English middle class, but brought up in Canada and the US, and a Christian Socialist. Mother, Rhondda Valley daughter of a miner.
To my father, socialism was all about, the working class being taught to appreciate the joys of classical music, literature, poetry etc etc. Bloody successful were’nt they!
To my mother you were Labour, ‘cos there was a better chance of getting food on the table, under them, errr that was it really. Oh! and of course the mine owners were Tories and you just hated them.
One of the reasons why I became converted to PR, was the existence of unchangable areas. Parts of the country which are nearly always Labour, parts of the country which are nearly always Conservative.
PR would hopefully break these up, this is particularly true in local government.
10. Think the other thing the Tories have to remember is they are up against a second rate PM (That is probably being far to kind!). The whole electoral landscape changes not just with support of a party but the attitudes towards leaders. Blair created a perfect storm against the tories in 1997 & 2001 - even to a lesser extent 2005. This perfect dtorm has evapourated and will not be recreated with Brown. Not only is Brown going in with a redudecs majority notionally to the 40’s but i would think you could probably knock another 20- 30 seats from the Labour column because Blair has gone.
10 “The whole point about Labour now is they have a stranglehold on government. Why? They have damned in their core vote through the use of postal voting.”
They have a stranglehold because they seek power above democracy.
When they lose power at the next election, a couple of things will happen that will render them harmless
1) The BBC will be privatised and de-Nazified
2) The Union will lose their “grants” - losing the ability to funnel public cash to Labour
3) Boundaries will be redrawn as a matter of urgency. All constituencies will represent the same number of people (give or take).
4) Corruption enquiries will be resumed where new evidence is identified - and there is a lot of evidence that has not been brought forward.
How embarrassing if Tony Blair were to face UK corruption charges as European President.
14 - do you really honestly think the Tories would privatise the BBC?
Do the Tories have a position on Channel 4 - which is certainly ripe for privatisation?
Excellent article as always Sean. I think the big fear for the Labour party in the future is in its Scottish heartlands, the SNP is appealing more to younger less tribal voters, especially now Labour has been in power for so long. IMHO this will tend to be more pronounced in the Holyrood elections, but it might begin to show in Westminster elections. I do think that the SNP will squeeze Labour in the way that the Libdems did to the Conservatives down South, they offer an acceptable alternative.
12 - coldstone- mine’s a similar tale - father welsh [Chapl]from Pontypridd - mother[Catholic]irish stock both of typical working class backgrounds but both of them voted Conservative- I could never understand why!!
Great piece Sean - at least you made it on Friday this week, shame it didn’t appear earlier than 8.15pm however, as a good few PBers will be venturing forth with their freshly filled wallets.
When you refer to Labour’s “core” vote, how many seats are they virtually certain to win in your opinion, short of an absolute disaster - 200, 220, 240? This is quite helpful to know for spreadbetters like myself, in calclating our maximum exposure in terms of GE seats bets.
15. “Do the Tories have a position on Channel 4 - which is certainly ripe for privatisation?”
is Channel 4 a public channel?
Chris Cillizza looks at the top ten of potential flip states in the general election :
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/03/the_friday_line_the_general_el.html
Sean, good article as ever.
IMHO Labour is safe in its heartlands (except a few isolated wards, and at local elections) until the Lib Dems make a collective and conscious effort to identify the working class. The potential is there, but I think southern Lib Dem MPs took a look into the abyss in 2005 and now are determined not to let the Tories paint them as left-wing. Maybe Clegg will instruct the party to target more northern seats; I’m not so sure.
15 Dispatches demonstrates Channel 4’s independence - a breath of fresh air compared to the BBC.
You will be hard pressed to find many Conservative supporters of the BBC.
The BBC serves the Labour party. BBC workers decided the BBC’s fate. It will be broken up and privatised. Departments independent from Labour would probably be retained.
19
Channel 4 is publicly owned but commercially funded.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_4
19 - Yes. It may have advertisements but remains government owned.
In its early days it was cutting edge, but now it increasingly show imported trash, and aside from the news (which is excellent) has little to recommend it.
It gets no public subsidy, but I think it pays little or nothing for its bandwidth. So it is basically subsidised, and is not longer a public service broadcaster.
One of the parties was considering privatising it. Cannot recall which. Could be any.
22
The BBC employs approximately 50% more people than a commercial broadcaster would… look at their coverage of elections..
1 A pity that after quite an interesting exchange of views on the previous thread, we are once again witnessing the rabid anti Thatcher views of just one or two individuals, whose language probably alienates 80% or more of those visiting this site and kills any intelligent discussion stone dead.
23/24. Thanks. I didn’t know it. I thought it was a private channel
Sean - whilst agreeing with the thrust of the thread what you haven’t mentioned is that the typical”working class” Labour voter normally will never vote Conservative[my parents and 1979 being the exception].They will either vote other or abstain.
The working class fall into two types.
The hard working who whether they make it up to what some construe as middle class or stay within the working class.
The lazy arses who believe their position is someone elses problem.
There is one of the groups that the Tories need to win.
From a very working class background in a sink estate there’s a good reasin why I’d find it hard to vote for the left because they feed the idea that its always someone elses fault. Its pat on the head don’t take responsibility for yourselves stuff. To make things worse, the modern Labour party talks about working people and is happy to take their votes but it never really wants to get their hands dirty and deal with them. Stay in the estates lads whilst we hang out in lefy streets seems to be the motto. Put those two attitudes together and its positively bad stuff.
29.”The hard working who whether they make it up to what some construe as middle class or stay within the working class.”
Didn’t Mrs Thatcher win some of this group over to the Conservatives with the right to buy of council houses?
Sorry to go O/T, but since Andrea is here -
Is there a good English-language source for Italian election coverage?
28 “the typical”working class” Labour voter normally will never vote Conservative”
Really?
Pop quiz, who said…
“If you’re not a liberal when you’re 20, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative when you’re 40, you have no head.”?
28 Vino - “Never” is a very strong term. Even Sean Fear himself has recently admitted to having more than once very nearly voted for a party other than the Tories. It’s equally clear that a number of posters from died-in-the-wool Labour families are now committed Tories.
31. Jack Peterson, I don’t know any English language source which will cover it. If I find something, I will post it here.
Considering pb.com opinion of BBC budget coverage, I guess the majority would consider the election coverage of Italian TV pretty crap too.
29. My Grandad,a lifelong Labour supporter, was told he was a ‘traitor to the working class’ by a snotty little polytechnic trot activist when he refused to vote for a similarly trot local Labour candidate. He voted Conservative in 1979 as a result, in the last election in which voted (sadly).
My great aunt was from a similar background (Yorks pit village). When she inquired about buying her council house she got a visit from the local Labour councillor who told her ‘home owning’s not for the likes of thee, pet’ and then got very angry when she asked ‘why not?’ She never voted Labour again.
Two little anecdotes that sum up Labour’s attitude to ordinary working people - voting fodder who should do as they are told.
35 - Harry - agreed, the same sort of situations occurred with my family. Labour want to keep people in poor conditions because it ensures they keep voting labour.
34. Thanks. I think Italian election coverage would be quite entertaining, but I know some here set high standards for political broadcasting! And I imagine the bizarre electoral system makes for a pretty confusing election night.
35 Quite.
It is in the Conservative’s interest to keep people wealthy and independent.
It is Labour’s interest to keep people poor and dependent.
35. “It is in the Conservative’s interest to keep people wealthy and independent.”
Not too independent. Then they might disrupt the social order!
39 refers to 38
Tabman,some time ago also suggested that the working class loyalty to Labour was breaking down and whilst I disagreed with him on hindsight he was probably right - the only other working class poster [who I can indentify with] on this site is Patrick whom I’m sure like me whilst having problems supporting Labour it would be a big step to vote Conservative.
26
You are right Peter,it just takes a couple of mindless morons like Patrick & malcolm with their revolting bile to kill any semblence of intelligent discussion.
It was Patrick a while back that took pleasure in reciting an IRA song that glorified the murder of our soldiers,says it all.
The social attitudes thing is important too.
The North East - altho staunch Labour - has always had a very pronounced small c conservative streak. Don’t let images of hard left ranters at the Durham Miners Gala fool you - most of the audience paid no notice and couldnt wait to get stuck into the beer…
That the northern catholic vote is crucial to labour is obvious, but as a mass-goer myself the labour hierarchy should be worried that their secular metropolitanism is really starting to alienate this core support.
Not to mention their perceived softness on criminal justice - real vote loser in their traditional northern heartlands
43 - some areas buck the trend of the socio-economic situation of the area. Much of east Kent - and parts of the Medways Towns are very working class, but the Tories managed to hold all the seats in Kent from 1979 to 1997 - all but Dover relatively safely.
The Tories should aim for a clean sweep in Kent next time, but I can’t see them getting back Dover or Chatham just yet.
41. I believe there was a drift of working-class voters from Labour to Conservative between circa 1965 and 1985 - roughly from Smethwick to the point when Kinnock turned on Militant.
That stemmed from
(1) a spirit of independence and self-reliance. Traditionally, working-class Toryism has drawn much strength from the perception that Labour is patronizing and fosters “sheep-like” behaviour among workers.
(2) immigration - which I believe made working-class Toryism socially acceptable for the first time since at least the 1930s
(3) despair at the unions, and the attraction of council house sales etc. in the late 1970s and 1980s.
However, I think this drift stopped in Thatcher’s heyday, and the model identified by Vino -whereby disillusioned working-class Labour voters abstain or vote Lib Dem/independent/UKIP/Respect/BNP, but not Tory- is more applicable now.
O/T I’m not sure how widely known it is within the PB.com community that Paddy Power have backed down as regards a number of bona fide bets placed by PtP and others, regarding Mike Huckabee’s victory in the Kansas caucus a few weeks ago.
I agree with stjohn’s suggestion last night that hat tips are due both to PtP for taking up the cause with IBAS and indeed to Paddy Power for rectifying the position by paying up, albeit very late in the day. This is, after all, first and foremost a betting site.
I believe a further hat tip is also due to Mike Smithson and to all who posted here on this matter - the growing influence of PB.com, I’m sure, was in no small part responsible for the bookmaker’s decision to reverse its original stand.
Sadly, IBAS comes out of this sorry incident very badly indeed.
46. Having been credited by them I put it to good use yesterday at Cheltenham and took plenty from them so it was doubly good!
historically about a third of the working class vote has gone to the tories - for some Labour supporters the idea of voting tory is anathema and they can’t understand why anyone would vote for a party other than Labour - these people choose to be blind to the poverty-development-system that is the backbone of socialism
I still think of myself as working class because that’s my background - I’ve become lower middle class because of my education and employment but working class heroes banging on about ‘evil tories’ just come over to me as people more interested in keeping the working class in its place than actually building it up.
I voted Labour once, I went on strike once and I listened to Cleo Laine singing once - all were ghastly errors of judgment.
47 Yokel - remembering you being up late last night, I hope you took advantage of the Gold Cup selections to which I referred in post 143 of the last thread.
48 ……and I listened to Cleo Laine singing once - all were ghastly errors of judgment.
ROTFL
48 - kingbongo - it’s a mindset for me that the Labour Party represents people like myself [even when it’s obvious they don’t] and the Conservatives represent the toffs[even when it’s obvious they don’t].
The only person[apart from Blair] who ever tapped into this mindset was Kilroy Silk in the 04 European elections and Ukip reaped the rewards.
You do tap into a good point here Sean, and once again another excellent article.
I can never ever vote for conservatives. Ever. Because my family went down the pits.
It’s nothing to do with their policies or the socio-economic class of their leader. It’s complete prejudice, but i can’t do it. It would be a betrayl of my roots.
Thanks for the comments and the approval. Dealing with various points:-
4. Yes, it is weaker than it was, but it is still strong.
12. Your parents remind me of the (teacher) parents of a friend who took him to the Soviet Union to see socialism in action. He became a fanatical Tory, when he went to University.
16. I can’t really see the SNP breaking through seriously into the Central Belt,but who knows.
18. I can’t see Labour going below 200, even if they suffer an absolute disaster. I think 240-260 is likley next time.
28/29/45/48 I think that Southern working class voters have diverged from their colleagues in other parts of the UK. Obviously, the Tories would never have won an election without the backing of a lot of working class voters, but I think in Thatcher’s time, there was a definite shift to the Tories among the Southern working classes. There was a pronounced shift back to Labour in1997,but a subsequent movement back to the Tories.
35 There would be a certain type of Tory (Peregrine Worsthorne springs to mind) who would say the same.
43 If the Tories could break into working class Catholic Labour support, then that would be very bad news for Labour. However, the Conservatives really aren’t trying to win over such voters.
52 An honest post and the same probably applies to a good half of the population on both sides of the political divide.
49. I had a bet/lay on Denman from a long way out so apart from a punt on an outsider sat tight knowing I had profit in the bag.
Otherwise today was distinctly neutral. I was saved from losses by an each way bet on Liskennet, who placed at 16/1 but for some weird reason Sportingbet had it at 40’s last night.
Sean at 53, “18. I can’t see Labour going below 200, even if they suffer an absolute disaster. I think 240-260 is likley next time.”
What about if Balls takes over …
(Excellent article as usual, btw)
You don’t mention Plaid Cymru or the SNP. Surely they are both essentially ‘old Labour’ with a nationalist twist, and getting their support from Labour’s ‘core vote’?
Ah but immigrants and EU citizens will become Labour’s new core voters, so they will survive.
57. Dont knwo about the SNP Dave. It may well be they picked up a lot of old Tory vote.
Could be wrong in that guess though.
58. That idea is blown away by the fact that immigrants and EU voters can only vote in Local elections, and look the the tories recent local election performance after the level of immigration has increased.
there could be two reasons for this:
1) Immigrants don’t care about british government, because they have no sense of identity with their host country.
2) Economic migrants tend to be more capitalist and more aspirational, after better things for their kids. Thus tending to vote for the more free market tories.
Late night quiz question:
Before Nick Clegg, who was the last Lib Dem or Liberal leader to sit for a borough constituency?
It took me a bit of thinking yesterday afternoon but I’m pretty sure I’ve got it.
61 - Asquith - Paisley
60. ‘2) Economic migrants tend to be more capitalist and more aspirational, after better things for their kids. Thus tending to vote for the more free market tories.’
Interesting you say that, during last years local elections, the polish deli in onw of our towns displayed a post saying vote conservative in Polish!!
Good article Sean,as ever.
The Telegraph suggests that they may be difficult times ahead for the UK on the economic front and it has to be bad news for NuLabour.
There will never be an opportunity like this again for the conservatives to go on the offensive if only they can get their act together.Alistair Darling is there to be shot at.
The Bear Stearns crisis also severely undermines the comparatively optimistic economic forecasts delivered by Alistair Darling in his first Budget this week. The Chancellor may be forced to slash spending, raise taxes and borrow even more in the coming months as the economic slowdown takes hold, they added.
Bear Stearns is perhaps the most severely exposed American bank to the sub-prime mortgage crisis sweeping the world’s biggest economy.
While it does not lend directly to customers, it indirectly owns billions of dollars worth of mortgage debt - much of which has turned bad as US house prices fall.
63. I do think the profit motive will be stronger in economic migrants as generally they have left the country they grew up in in order to make more money. Personally, i dislike this attitude, but i think it is understandable and makes them the natural constituency for the conservatives.
Lloyd George in Caernarvon Boroughs, surely?
Many migrants come to Britain with a highly positive, idealistic view of British society and institutional life, which can encourage Conservativism - but only if the socio-economic circumstances of the migrant prop it up.
62. Yes, I think you’re right SBS.
The last to sit for an urban constituency was Herbert Samuel at Darwen, but Darwen was a county seat.
66. Sorry, yes, I think Lloyd George takes it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caernarvon_Boroughs
A pretty strange way of organizing a constituency - and it remained that way until 1950.
65. Just to illustrate my point, think of the nice Lord Ascroft who is domiciled in Belize.
59
Drifting off-topic. I tried to check your point with search engine, and came across an unflattering thumbnail of Scottish Conservatives.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/jan08/7stepstoascotsmess.htm
32
“If you’re not a liberal when you’re 20, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative when you’re 40, you have no head.”?
I’m 61 and more left-wing than I’ve ever been, so why should I become a conservative?
Malcolm
I’ve stayed up to watch the cricket.
I’ve one observation from your excellent article, regarding the declining turnout in safe Labour seats. Is this one of the reasons why Cameron is keen to reduce the number of MPs. Larger seats would enable suburban Tory voters, who have a greater propensity to vote, to swamp apathetic labour voters in the inner cities. Having to fight larger constituencies might also blunt the intensive, hands-on localism of the LibDems.
71. Dont you see any accidental irony in your post?
Does anyone else sense that the economic situation is far, far worse than we are being told and we are on the very edge of major financial chaos.
To hear Darling’s intro to his Budget sppech on Wednesday, you’d imagine that we’re in fine shape to withstand anything that’s thrown our way, but to my thinking there are several extremely disturbing indicators.
One example is the dramatic fall in the value of major UK Banks s to the extent that HBOS’s shares, for example now yield well over 10% gross, which by any historical basis equates to junk bond levels.
Another example is the extent to which the share prices of house builders have declined over the past 6-8 months often by two thirds or more, suggesting that house prices are about to collapse and yet, on a UK wide basis, they have so far fallen by only about 3% from their 2007 all time highs. I should add here that I’m a heavy seller of the house price indices with Spreadfair over the next 12 month period.
I have a very uneasy feeling that disaster is just around the corner ….. I sincerely hope I’m wrong.
59.
Came across a comment on UK Polling Report which suggests the SNP are a bit of an odd fish, but I think supports your opinion more than mine.
“Middle-class areas have long been quite competetive in Scotland, with all four big parties having a decent following. (It is weird looking at the differences in the vote in, say Angus and NE Fife, which are otherwise quite similar.)
Working-class constituencies are (well, used to be) solid Labour, with SNP a clear second and Tories and Liberals nowhere. Central region, for example, is often seen as a pure Labour land, but the SNP vote is above its average. In many Lanarkshire wards the Tories and Liberals don’t even had candidates.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1014#comment-211278
OT. Obama price now easing a touch on Intrade and Betfair. Looks like the vids of his pastors controverisal views on 9/11 et al aren’t playing well, and that’s even before the Clinton campaign weighs in on the subject.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2Q0YjU0NWIxZDNjZjhjM2Q3N2Q1N2NhMWY1MTE2MmY=
71 ““If you’re not a liberal when you’re 20, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative when you’re 40, you have no head.”?
I’m 61 and more left-wing than I’ve ever been, so why should I become a conservative?”
Malcolm, thanks for the joke. It made me smile.
If it wasn’t a joke, I am still smiling - but please get someone to explain it to you
The danger to Labour imo is not tribal supporters abstaining in its heartlands but from tribal supporters like myself who have moved away into the outer fringes,in my case Broxtowe but Gedling springs to mind as well.As Sean points out the Conservatives do not appear to be targeting us at this moment - my abstaining or voting for Ukip will not cause Nick Palmer many sleepness nights but perhaps my intention to vote Conservative would do.
78 “my abstaining or voting for Ukip will not cause Nick Palmer many sleepness nights but perhaps my intention to vote Conservative would do.
Nick Palmer would probably say “So What?!?”
or “So Week?!?”…
or “Swot?!?”…
or “Saw hot?!?”…
74. I think the major problem the consumer economy faces is stagflation. The question is hwo long will that last before inflation starts to fall a bit.
The government, as the budget proved, has no levers to pull in terms of injection into the economy because they’ve spent all those tax receipts like a mad woman in a shoe shop. With Public service reform about shedding some posts and so on any rises in government spending will likely be in non stimuli, non-return areas such as benefits etc and to get those rises it has to borrow or tax, taking money out in some shape or form therefore.
I think our banks may ultimately fare better overall than many of their US counterparts but no one can be isolated from this one. Its a question of whether its severe slowdown or contraction. At this stage my money is on next to zero growth in the UK this year.
On a personal note I suggested in September on pb.com maybe that people should buy gold. I bailed out whilst it was in the $900s (bought the $700’s). If I’d held on a bit longer I would have done even better. If anyone followed me in, its been a period of pretty much unbroken growth but it will top out soon enough I think.
Sean,labour may have safe parlimantary seats but it’s dismal local election showing looks like continuing in may 2008.
To be fair there are unlikley to be huge changes versus 2004, the last time the sets were contestedThe national swings since then are around 4% Lab to COn,2% Lab to Lib Dem,and2% Lib dem to Con.
With such a small swing local factors are likley to be more important making prediction very diificult.Last time the seats were fought was June 10th 2004 the same day as the european electionc with a good sprinkling of UKIP candidates which is likely to be lower this time.
Overall in England would expect a relatively small number of seats to change hands,and since all councils are only a third up,even less councils.
So here are some predictions.
Seats
Metros: Con +50, Lib +25,Lab -75
Unitary:Con +30, Lib +10, Lab -40
DistrictCon +70,Lib -35,Lab -35.
Total Con +150,Lib 0,Lab-150
Shares Con 42%,Lab 26%,lib 26%
Councils Changing hands
METRO
Barnsley Lab to NOC
Bury NOC to Con
NTynesideNOC to Con
Solihull NOC to Con
Long shots
Sheffield NOC to Lib Dem
St helens NOC to Lib Dem
UNITARY
Hartlepool Lab to NOC
Portsmouth NOC to Con
Reading Lab to NOC
Warrington NOC to Lib Dem
DISTRICT
Cheltenham NOC to Con
Ellesmere Lab to NOC
Gosport NOC to Con
Harrogate NOC to Con
Hastings NOC to Con
Maidstone NOC to con
St Albans NOC to Lib Dem
Winchester Con to NOC
Worcester NOC to Con
All in all a good night for Mr Cameron
rogerh
N tyneside
78. Are you not getting anything from the Tories at the moment then Vino?
80 Zero growth we can live with, at least for a while.
A major bank collapse we cannot.
76. One of Obama’s strong suits, that of opposition to Iraq may not be so useful come November assuming he gets the nomination. American people arent half as thick as us appasrent sophisticates like to think. They know McCain’s support for the war was about doing it right.
If general support for the handling of Iraq continues to increase Obama may lose a decent sized swing element.
82 - woody662 - to be fair I think most houses in my area receive every so often updates from the local Conservatives,in particular the County Councillor which I do read.
83. I don’t think a majot UK bank has went into loss yet.
What we could see is a fringe bank (like London & Scottish for example) in trouble.
Watching The Cable’s budget response. Very good much better than Osbornes, for these reasons:
He seems like he’s on my side and he seems like he understands economics a lot better than he understands what being in opposition is about. He acknowledges what the government has to face, what they have done well and the trade offs they have to make. He doesn’t promise snake oil but he highlights ways it could have been better.
For example, he suggests greater investment in science, He acknowledges a way in which public spending which could have had a better economic impact and provides a hard policy commitment. Osborne seemed to promise, tax cuts, maintaining spending and eradicating the spending all at once. That is impossible. But he provided an outlet for anti-government feeling which means he has a better chance of being in government himself than the cable does.
87. Eradicating the deficit.
80
Think you could be right about stagflation,how long before people start demanding real pay increases to match real inflation.
Growth based on house price inflation,massive personal and government debt could never be sustained long term,I am surprised it’s lasted so long.
Although middle class myself I’m from a South Yorkshire mining family and work in the industrial sector. There has been a massive loss of Labour support among the working class people I know in recent years, the key issues being immigration and the sense that the extra taxes being paid are wasted or spent on the undeserving.
I can’t stress enough what a contentious issue immigration is among skilled working class voters in towns like Rotherham and Doncaster. For the first time there is now direct competition and threat to people’s jobs and pay rises, homes and school places. There is a genuine and widespread belief that they have been betrayed by a middle class Labour leadership who neither know nor care about ‘people like us’.
I’m not sure how willing working class voters would be to vote Conservative (Cameron hasn’t yet found an issue like council house sales or union strike ballots) but there will be greater support for the BNP and more abstentions.
o/t - I’m off to the States in May - buy dollars now or wait?
86 You’re right, all the major banks reported record or near record profits, HBOS increased its dividend payout by 18%, so why are its and other banks’ shares falling like stones?
76
I think the Mr Obama’s vicar’s anti-American rants chime with Mrs Obama’s gaffe, “for the first time in my adult lifetime I’m really proud of my country.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/02/michelle_obama_first_time_shes.html
53.”16. I can’t really see the SNP breaking through seriously into the Central Belt,but who knows.”
Sean, the SNP are a very handy and acceptable alternative to Labour in their working class heartlands in the Central belt, particularly when Labour have been in power for a while. At the moment you have a lot of older voters who have always voted Labour (dad did, granddad did etc), they might not buy into the independence mantra but they know an opportunity to give Labour a bl**dy nose all the same. Remember Winnie Ewing and Hamilton.
But its the younger voters who are much more swayed with the whole SNP argument for Independence, one to watch in the future.
70.That’s the journalist who recently felt the need to apologise to his readers on behalf of Scotland for the last Scottish QT, the patronising twit does not appear to apologise when we get a duff QT from other parts of the country!
74
We are being told that our economic situation is OK and can withstand anything by the same people that tell us inflation is only 2.1%!!!!!!!!!
90 Richard - you’ve touched on the one really big issue in the North of England, the one that dare not speak its name - immigration. As a very frequent visitor to West Yorkshire, I’ve witnessed the very fabric of towns like Dewsbury change beyond recognition over the past 15 years. I’ve written honestly about such changes on PB.com but am usually accused of being a racist, which most assuredly I am not, so I’ve just given up. I’ve also discussed these aspects with friends in Cambridge, but really they have absolutely no comprehension of what has happened in these towns.
re 96 PfP don’t worry - the usual types will shout racist at the drop of a hat if they don’t like what you’re saying. It’s meant to shut you up - don’t let it.
81 - a tenner says Tories won’t take Maidstone.
Left wing press gives great reception to child poverty news:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/mar/14/budget.children
http://www.newstatesman.com/200803130009
96
I don’t know about the rest of Yorkshire,but last month I drove through Bradford and could have been in any city in Pakistan,road after road without a single white face.
WHOA - what’s going on in the next dem market? I see the pastor stuff but, not sure why someone wants 3K on Hills @ 3.75?
99.Polly!!
I should be sorry to lose your support, vino - if you voted UKIP it would only be half as bad as if you voted Conservative but still a lost vote is a lost vote! Feel free to contact me directly if you want to chew it over in more detail than we can do here.
To reply to the main topic - thanks to Sean for his balanced presentation. I think it’s actually quite hard to tell. Core working class Labour voters generally have a tough, busy life and limited time or inclination to engage in leisurely study of climate change or stem cell research or Japanese whaling or any of the other issues that middle-class voters write to me about, so they often make up their minds whether and how to vote on the day.
If you canvass them between elections, they will often say sometihng like “Yes, I usually vote Labour if I vote”. It’s not that they’re being evasive, they just haven’t had the time and mental space to think about it before they need to. It’s in practice hard to predict individually who will vote and who won’t, and that was true even in 1997. But in the end the Tories tend to find them elusive - they might agree on Europe or prisons or other issues, but the Tory ethos remains alien (rather more so with Cameron than Howard), and the more bumptuous attacks that Osborne in particular goes in for tend to rally them to the colours.
People who come from mining families in particular but are no longer themselves in manual labour are often more definite: they’ve got the deep-rooted commitment that G describes, plus a bit of time to spare. The other strongly loyal Labour group in marginal seats is the radical middle-class generation who grew up under Thatcher (this is the backbone of most constituency parties), plus the families of the postwar Commonwealth immigrants who were welcomed by Labour when many Tories were still actively hostile.
103
Another good news immigration story from my area Mr Palmer. Keep ‘em coming as we can’t get enough umemployed crackhead rapists here in happy Camden.
Still he’s enriched our culture and boy did we need it, eh?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7297369.stm
I note your relish without surprise, EDW.
106
Great reply, Nick, I’d expect no less from a hero of the ‘People’s Party’.
Oh I nearly forgot this one from again from my beloved Camden. A real enrichment overload.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6564669.stm
74 - PfP, you’re absolutely right about the potential for a really serious economic crisis. I’ve got a sizeable financial bet on sterling falling alongside the dollar, doing very nicely so far. Swiss Franc (CHF) is the currency to be in IMHO, very nearly less than 2 to a pound now!
The Bear Sterns announcement today is yet another announcement in the deleveraging process spiralling into a deadly vortex. I was looking the other day at the behaviour of asset prices in the Great Depression. It was very noticeable in 1930 that there were moments of panic where the market would decline, then some attempt by the authorities to shore things up, markets would temporarily rally but not get back to where they had been, before another moment of panic would set in, and repeat the cycle again. This ‘jawboning’ of the market downwards has been very evident over the past 3 months or so.
I believe that we are about 6-9 months behind where America is now, I don’t know what event will get the market really rattled about the situation in the UK but I suspect it will be something like another bank going to the BoE for emergency assistance, Bradford & Bingley, Alliance & Leicester or one of the specialist mortgage providers eg Paragon or Kensington come to mind.
It’s staggering how much inflation has been underrecorded, the GDP deflator similarly being underrecorded, and hence growth overstated, wages have been declining in real terms for quite a while now - this looks to me like an economy very much on the precipice.
Still think that many many people are still in the denial stage about how bad things might get, I keep questioning my ultra-bearish stance - I thought up until recently that the fundamental moment of reckoning for the US economy / dollar as the world reserve currency would come around 2020, but I now believe the moment is nigh.
107
Still there are a lot of leftie luvies in Camden and at least they can experience at first hand their beloved multicultural disaster,still a small price to pay for all thoses extra takeaways nobody asked for.
42,IF I can find a way of identiftying anti-Irish prejudoce,and locate your e-mail addy,do not be surprised if the police knock on your door one day soon-FWIW,there was an 80 year-old hairdreseers(life-long right-wing Tory)-near my front door (15 mins walk)> I listened to his vile anti-Irish filth till I wantes to BATTER him,80 or not.I had a word at Bournemouth’s centrela police sation,and he was ‘ advised to moderate his language-he screamed blue murder about his ‘freedom of speech’-Ed Balls agve me the line-’SOWHAT??!!’-if you don’t like,get back in your hole AND STAY THERE
92. Looking at HBOS accounts at 31 December 2007:
Gross assets £667bn
Gross liabilities £645bn
Net assets £22bn
Major component of gross assets is Loans and advances to customers of £430bn.
So if more than 5% of Loans and advances to customers go bad, HBOS’s net assets would be completely wiped out - it would be worthless.
I’m not a banking expert but that looks pretty worrying to me. What do posters with more expertise than me think?
101. Obama apparently going to appear on Fox News tonight in the next hour to respond to the pastor issue. He must be very worried about the situation to be going on Fox!!!!
42,And,if you really want the truth,I sang my little ditty about Patrick Macgee in front of a middke-aged Tory mate.His reaction? ‘He smiled,chuckled ‘Blimey Pat,I know you did’nt like us,but is’nt that a tad harsh?’ We chatted about pensioners,unemployment,and he actually concluded that there are asignificant percenatge of the populace who would stop at NOTHING to show their feelings for dear old Conservative Party plc ltd-at leats the guy acceptes reality
Yes, G (87) - I think you are quite right. The PPB featuring Vince Cable was excellent - a tranquil analysis of the economic situation, the problems that we currently face, the measures that we need to take. It was a response to which most peebies will no doubt respond favourably, since they are all reflective types (even most of the Tories, except that they will not admit it).
In contrast, Osborne gave just a political rant - rhubarb and rubbish - which will evoke a positive response from unthinking Tory commentators: as it did here. A pity that they are now in the majority on PBC.
Though I think this evening they have been more measured, have they not?
112: A bit strange it took so long for this to blow up.
The silver lining for Obama is that he gets a chance to get on the news a lot talking about how he’s a Christian not a Muslim… Maybe that explains the Fox News choice?
112. Did anyone just see the Obama interview on Fox? Not good….
Looks to me like he’s just laid his entire campaign on his statement that he was not at any service when his pastor said these damaging quotes. If there’s any proof that now comes to light to the contrary, he’s in big trouble surely?
116 - He is rightly wary of being swiftboated. Haven’t seen the interview but the right way to deal with these kind of things is to come out with a forceful denial early, answer all the questions people have (aka McCain after the NYT story) and take all the legs out of the story. Kerry ignored the Swift boaters thinking that a response would give the allegations credibility. A fatal error as it allowed the accusors views to set in. Of course, if Obama has a closer connection to Wright than he has suggested he will be in trouble.
BTW troops:
(a)I am reasinably sober for pushing 2.00am on Saturday morning
(b)BUT the cheapness of 42 on this thread,in the face of
(i)A brutal outdown of people in 1916
(ii)Sciffs from others at the famine of the 19th century
(iii)The whitewash ‘enquiry’ after 13 ‘Para’ BRUTALLY gunned down 13 young men a la Tiamanen Square in Derry on January 30th January 1972 means this-if anyone wants to slag the IRA down,fine,your choice. MY answer:
(1)Buy a cucumber from a supermarket
(2)Write your opinions of the IRA on the cucumber
(3)Grease the cucumber with KY jelly,vasoline,whatever lubricant you like
(4)STICK THE CUCUMBER UP YOUR ARSE AS FAR AS IT WILL GO
There,I feel better now that’s off my chest.Night all
100
Maybe you should get around a bit more.
Malcolm
111 - that assumes that their assets don’t already incorporate any provision for dodgy debts
60 Then why are Labour so pro EU and pro immigration? Why are the Tories against immigration and the EU if immigrants are natural Tory voters?
my grandad was a labour voter right up until the great depression in the early 30’s. their factory in south wales was on the edge of going under, but the union wanted to strike for higher pay. the workers knew that it would mean the factory closing, and so wouldnt do it, so the local labour party and union organised the more millitant locals into a mob and wouldnt let the workers cross a picket line, the local coppers were already dealing with a load of other strikes and had couldnt stop it. the factory went bust, my grandad lost his job, and had to leave wales looking for work. after that he always hated labour and all it stood for, and votd tory till he died last year.
118 Posts like that really don’t show you in an attractive light.
123 You can’t complain about anti-Irish abuse when you’re happy handing out abuse yourself.
94 But aren’t the SNP strongest in the North East, an area which used to be Conservative rather than Labour.
So do Labour have an inbuilt interest in maintaining high levels of deprivation in their safe seats?
123,124,Yeah,you’re right.Its just after a heavy week ,psychologically (where I admit my own instability,it dies’nt take much to set me off.I should not let myself get so wound up-for my own healths sake as much as anything-FWIW,I briefly met you at the April 2007 party,and you seemed a decent human being-without elaborating that was just before my breakdown-and whilst the scars on my arms from self-harming have gone,the scars mentally are still raw and vivid
127 Fair enough, and I hope you make a full recovery.
Well, that was a much more interesting piece imho - even if it goes against what I personally tend to argue!
I’m just not convinced the Labour ‘core vote’ is as likely to be bothered voting next time as it has been in the last couple of elections. Whilst the core vote Tories I feel ARE more likely to vote next time than the last couple of times.
With all the parties dancing around the same square inch of middle ground turf, I think it will be the party that can attract the greater number of those outside the middle ground to turnout who will win.
126 I think they have an interest in ensuring that people living in their safe seats look to the State for the majority of their income.
129 Perhaps, but it really doesn’t matter much if Labour win a safe seat by 10,000 rather than 20,000.
81 rogerh , that is a rather over optimistic view of Conservative chances in May’s locals .
They are pretty certain to lose control of Coventry , Swale , Hyndburn and Colchester which you have not mentioned at all . There is no chance of them taking control in Solihull as the Conservatives are defending in all the marginal wards v the LibDems this year so cannot make the gains needed . North Tyneside may go to a majority of Conservative councillors but Labour will keep control via the elected mayor . Harrogate is most unlikely to go to overall Conservative control as they are defending 13 out of the 16 seats up this year . Looking at who is defending in the marginal wards this year Cheltenham is more likely to go to LibDem overall control than to Conservative but will probably stay NOC . Bury is unlikely to give the Conservatives enough gains to quite take overall control .
Hopefully my new home computer will be up and running tomorrow .
128 Thanks,you’re a decent human being,Sean. (BTW,you said very early last Saturday ‘Old people knitting socks is O.K’-I put that to one or two pensioners I know and it did not go down too well to say the least-I did not reveal the source but they guessed-hang on,I should’nt be helping the Conservative Party! :lol:)
103. to 106. - Very funny
- that made my day! I never thought Nick P had such a dry sense of humour!
132.
Mark thanks for your corrections.My swift prediction did not take account of details of all party defences.
What do you think are realistic LIb Dem aspirations?
rogerh
108.Very interesting post, we are in an economically sticky situation which needs to be addressed, instead its being hindered by the political implications for the government and opposition. The country is well placed to handle the upcoming uncertainty and possible recession vs we are in a financial mess which leaves us unable to meet the tough times ahead.
A bit of honesty and leadership from the politicians about the possible implications combined with practical advice for the public is what is needed. Alas, it won’t come, instead many people are going to feel real financial pain what ever the outcome of the present uncertainty while the politicians sit and argue over whose stewardship of the economy gave us the worst recession.