Obama’s price eases a notch after the pastor row
March 15th, 2008
The candidate responds to the minister who married him and Michelle
There’s been a move to Hillary and away from Obama on the Democratic nomination markets in reaction to the overnight story from the US about his pastor. This looks like it could run and the MSNBC video above is well worth watching.
In all these things it usually boils down not to the issue itself but how the candidate deals with it. But there clearly is a danger, highlighted in the extract, that some of the pastor’s more inflammatory remarks will be thrown at him if he does get the nomination.
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Too little too late. Obama is toast - if he manages to limp to the nomination he’s going to have a lot of trouble defending New York. Indeed, the Democrats might get their 50-state strategy, though not the in way that they envisaged.
re 1. “Obama is Toast” - that’s a ballsy prediction Matthew.
I’m not sure that the danger of those remarks being thrown at him if he gets the nomination is too great. Obama’s pretty good on this kind of turf, and he gets a chance to talk about his Christian faith, which is actually quite helpful. Also, McCain has his own paster problem:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zASVwKZglAM
I think the biggest danger is if it turns out that his explanation turns out to have been evasive. Specifically, the bit where he says that Wright hadn’t said the kind of things they were discussing while he was in church seems like a bit of a hostage to fortune, as there are going to be tapes of the sermons over the years and may well be some kind of record of when Obama was there.
31- (from last thread)- Patrick- I wouldn’t worry too much what the likes of Don, Harry or Casino say about you. I tend to scroll through what they say, unless of course I need a good laugh.
I think you make some thoughtful posts on here, even if that means that there are some with sympathies to the IRA. The British occupation of Ireland was sometimes very brutal, a la Sunday Bloody Sunday, and it is natural that not all the Irish came out of this polishing their royal china, specially those of a catholic persuasion.
Happy St Paddy’s day
1. I hate ridiculous comments like this.
Interesting video. One thing that strikes me is the quality of the interviewer - he probes firmly without interrupting and abusing the interviewee, a very refreshing change from the Paxman/Humphries style.
On the issue, I think Obama starts weakly, not really answering the question of whether the pastor jumped or was pushed, but he gets better. I’d think it will cause some damage but not enough to derail him, unless there are further revelations that strengthen the doubts. But I don’t really have an instinctive feeling for how Americna voters react to this sort of religioous/political interaction.
3.
There is no equivalence between McCain making the obligatory pander to Hagee and Obama sitting in the pews for 20 odd years while Wright denounces the country that Obama wants to lead. Everyone understands that McCain doesn’t share Hagee’s bigoted views while Obama has made a big thing about Wright inspiring him. Also I agree with 3 that Obama’s assertion that he wasn’t there when Wright gave these sermons was a lie.
What odds are you offering against a McCain win in NY, Matthew?
Thanks for the clip Mike- only goes to show what an effective media performer Obama is. The guy is class. Worth getting some on whilst his price drifts slightly.
Matthew Patridge- probably not the most objective thing that you have ever said.
On Patrick, seanT, etc. - I’m not sure that calling another poster subhuman is all that much worse than calling them a traitor, which I’ve kind of got used to putting up with from seanT, Marquee Mark and one or two others, and Patrick’s responded in an even-tempered way. But I’d prefer it if abuse of other posters was systematically discouraged, as Mike is now trying to do.
Obviously some posters have views that others find hard to stomach (we’ve had one or two other examples recently), but that’s probably a price worth paying for having a site where diverse views meet. A good rule of thumb is to have a go at an appalling opinion rather than the person who holds it.
Incidentally, seanT has said he’ll stop posting altogether if the Treaty goes through without a referendum, as seems likely. There was a time when I’d have welcomed that, but I think he’s broadened his range of contributions and made them mostly less abusive, and I hope he’ll carry on.
Obama’s biggest negative is the below the radar whispering/e-mail campaign that he is really a closet Muslim. Anything that knocks that idea on the head for good will prove to be a positive. So - he may lose a handful of delegates to Hillary in the short term, but in the long term it will demonstrate his Christian credentials and defuse his faith as an issue when he is the candidate in November.
Tyson is right, Obama is an excellent media performer. He comes across as very open and very genuine, relaxed and unfazed. When he mentions Jesus he does so with a smile and what seems like a deep faith and belief. In my view that will play well. Of the two candidates, McCain and Obama, Obama seems to be the more christian of the two, this gives his christianity a bit more exposure.
I found it very interesting what the pundit said at the end about an Obama v. McCain contest. Both would respect the other and want to make it about the issues. As both seem to have a deep sense of integrity I think it will be a very interesting and stimulating November contest.
If anyone is planning on backing Hillary (and I wouldn’t recommend it at the current odds), they may want to be aware of these (albeit thin and speculative) rumours in the Daily Kos about a quick end to the race probably involving a bunch of superdelegates breaking for Obama:
http://tinyurl.com/yspeay
Matthew@7, I’m not saying that his claim that he wasn’t there when Wright gave the sermons in question was a lie. I’m saying that Obama would be in trouble if it turned out that they were, and that this is the angle that’s most likely to blow up in his face. In the circumstances you would have thought his campaign would have done its homework on this, though…
PS: If you liked the previous YouTube about Pastor Hagee saying Hurricane Katrina was God’s way of stopping a Gay Pride parade, you’ll love this one - especially all the Paisleyesque stuff about the Great Whore that is the Catholic Church:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qNi7tPanUA
10 Nick - I’ve never specifically called you a traitor. If you think the cap fits in any generalised comments I may have made (which have been few and far between) - then so be it. I very rarely personalise abusive comments about posters here - except when I think someone has crossed the line. That’s not who I am - and I think it would be a discourtesy to Mike.
Will vicargate influence Obama’s VP choice, making it more likely he plays it safe?
3.
In the Fox News interview, he seemed to wriggle a little in saying that, if these sermons had been the ongoing character of Sunday services, THEN, he would have changed church.
I also feel that the anti-american sentiments of his pastor resonate with Mrs Obama’s gaffe of not being proud of her country.
http://www.foxnews.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/02/michelle_obama_first_time_shes.html
16 Michelle Obama didn’t say she wasn’t proud of America. She said the propsect of change from Bush and of a black president made her REALLY proud to be an American. There was some outrageous editing by some of the news networks that took out the word “really” - with the deliberate intent of changing the context.
17
Whatever. I still think the two stories play into each other.
15. I agree that Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and Hagee are hateful bigots who deserve to be cast out of American Politics. Heck, I was disgusted by Huckabee equating Gay Marriage with bestiality. However, even I have to realise that there is a difference between McCain pandering to Hagee and Obama uncritically sitting in Wright’s church Sunday after Sunday.
16. Apparently, she said it twice. She only added ‘really’ the second time - which in some ways was worse because she realised the implications of what she had said but thought if she changed it a little bit she could say it anyway.
I think the general anti Hillary feeling on this site is stopping people seeing the signifigance of this.
1. This sisn’t a loopy vicar, its someone that goes back with obama for 20 years and has been a huge public influence.
2. the statement that he was never at a sermon when these sort of things were said is a huge hostage to fortune. If it turns out that he was then he might well be “toast”
3. while it emphasises his christianity it also emphasises his blackness and in a negative way.
4. it cuts across his USP. Thats hes a uniter.
19 “Apparently, she said it twice. She only added ‘really’ the second time”
Matthew, do you have a link?
19. I think Jerry Falwell is sort of out of the business these days. Being dead and all.
17, 19 - I’m not sure how much the ‘really’ mattered, what people seemed to get hold of was that she said “For the first time in my adult life…”
Thanks for the clip Mike.
Thought Obama was impressive under pressure.
I do agree with Nick the interviewer was excellent, probing and insightful, in comparison to the Paxmans and Humphries style of a full frontal attack, of lets get the lying bas*ard.
Cameron should learn from that clip, especially when the heat is on him , that he doesnt return to the petulance he showed in a Sky interview a couple of years back.
He needs to keep that trait under wraps in an election campaign.
I am sure he will do that.
I’ve been a member of churches. They have a character. I don’t believe that you can sit there for 20 years and not notice the fact that these sort of things were ebing said. still less cite a man as being as influential as Wright as been on obama.
Every free lance journalsit in the states is going to be working on finding more tapes and crucially putting obama at the scene of the crime.
Liberal Lemon @ 20 — I’m not anti-Hillary but cannot see what all the fuss is about, and suspect that it may even benefit Obama if it gets him on telly talking yet again about uniting America (pass the sick bag, Alice).
Unless there is a cover-up!
25
“I don’t believe that you can sit there for 20 years and not notice the fact that these sort of things were being said.”
I agree. It’s just not credible.
Has anyone got a link to the offending pastor’s remarks? There is a delightful irony in those who invoke their religiosity getting bitten on the bum for it! Nonetheless his response above is pretty slick which is no less than you’d expect from a politician who has stayed in the arena this long.
Patrick. Tyson’s post says it all. There are certain posters that should be ignored. Usually the one’s as Tyson points out who are only posting on here as a distraction from polishing their Silver Jubilee tea services. Some are called ‘Simon’ but not all.
27: At Instapundit (from someone called Ed Morrissey) they’re summing up the line he’s taking with:
“I attended the sermons but I did not inhale.”
I think people need to be aware that “anti-Hillary” sentiment on this site is not a personal attack upon her - but based on the wealth of detail available that Hillary has a massive task to win the nomination, either by accumulating pledged delegates or by swinging the super-delegates. The pro-Hillary voices seem to wilfully ignore this wealth of evidence which others have tried to point them towards. Fine, ignore it - if you want to gift your money to the bookies. That, though, is generally not the purpose of this site.
29
Nice
I think this might run a bit. Apparently Michelle Obama’s phd (?) thesis has been withdrawn from public access at her university - it too is supposed to reflect the sort of views she hinted at in her ‘proud for the first time’ remarks. All a long time ago, and marginal for the campaign, but it could begin to create a story that runs completely contrary to the sort of message Obama is trying to put across
What do people think that a real economic downturn will do to the race? I can’t see it helping Obama, and am tempted to rate McCain’s chances in the 45-50% range now, having previously thought i’d start closing out at about 2.5.
I will stick my neck out and say that if its revealed that he attended a sermon with some of this sort of content, having said he hadn’t, then he won’t be the nominee.
Even if he is telling the truth, and I’ve no evidence that he isn’t, its massive hostage to fortune.
Can he remember every sermon he’s heard over the last 20 years? of course not. So why issue a catergorical denial.
Can’tget the clip to run for mre than 2 mins onmylaptop. Will try again later. [He looked OK in the bit I did see, but then patriotism is a whole different game in the US].
The Times being quite nice to Boris.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3556402.ece
What more do you need to know about ‘liberal’ Roger than that he offers words of encouragement to the egregious IRA-supporting Patrick? For the record, this controversy started because Patrick boasted on this site about singing songs celebrating the murder of innocent people in the Brighton bomb. I’m sure Margaret Tebbit, confined to a wheelchair for the last 28 years, would find Roger’s solidarity with Patrick particularly callous.
I apologise to Mike for my abuse of Patrick. It is worth trying to keep the level of debate to a certain standard but, for the record, my comments were made in direct response to the following post from Patrick:
“…if anyone wants to slag the IRA down,fine,your choice. MY answer:
(1)Buy a cucumber from a supermarket
(2)Write your opinions of the IRA on the cucumber
(3)Grease the cucumber with KY jelly,vasoline,whatever lubricant you like
(4)STICK THE CUCUMBER UP YOUR ARSE AS FAR AS IT WILL GO”
Such an infantile and offensive rant doesn’t justify my response but it does contextualise it by way of a plea in mitigation.
I’ve just heard the pastors speech and thought it really good. A helluva lot better than Obama manages and unlike Obama he sounded as though he meant it. Pity he’s not standing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAYe7MT5BxM&eurl=http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/03/barack-obamas-p.html
1. Matthew JC Partridge I’m sure you are a nice fellow, you are the worst political tipster I’ve ever come across. Whenever you back something I instinctively investigate the alternative. I’m not saying this to have a pop - we all win some and lose some. However I think it’s important that any newish readers know that in my experience your tips are a consistently wrong guide to what will happen. Back against your instincts and you will become a rich man.
and Patrick’s responded in an even-tempered way
Hahaha.
I do get a laugh reading these kinds of posts by you Nick. All schoolmasterly and patronising, pretending to be some kind of upholder of ‘decent standards’ whilst really just ploughing a predictably partisan furrow.
Roger, Here’s some footage of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright preaching:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DGiNtj-0m0A
tom fairfax @ 32 re economic downturn.
The conventional wisdom is that Americans vote Democrat to sort out the economy (and Republican when they feel threatened from abroad).
We must be careful when talking about the American economy. Some states may be expanding while others are in recession.
TPA and Peter Riddell having a bit of a blog spat.
http://tpa.typepad.com/campaign/2008/03/a-misleading-po.html
No knock out blow but I am not sure Riddell comes off quite aswell as he might have hoped.
2 Makes perfect sense in his world where the dismissal of Shinseki was a masterstroke, the decision to invade Iraq with fewer than 200,000 troops brilliant, Abu Ghraib a PR triumph, and Iraq the most popular thing in the UK since the 1892 28 minute war
37. HenryG - agreed. Roger also provides an excellent reverse indicator on most matters, I find. Look at his great tip on Barclays, for example.
Nick Palmer “I’d prefer it if abuse of other posters was systematically discouraged”
I would agree but suggest you might start by not calling other people liars.
43. But Roger is good at the Oscars. You can’t ever take that away from him.
40 Well the only State experiencing an expanding Housing Market is North Dakota
For some time I’ve been convinced that Roger is Ed Balls. His comments on Yvette Cooper a couple of threads ago did nothing to change my mind.
40,
Looks they will have to sort both out, the economy and feeling threatened from abroad.
Thats why I have my money on Mcain who ever wins the Democratic nomination.
Nevertheless my personal preference is for Hilary Rodham,who I believe has the ability to achieve improvements in both.
John L: I wonder if the conventional wisdom is based on much more than Clinton ‘92 - Reagan ‘80 saw the opposite trend. But I could see HRC making a strong pitch along the lines you suggest, I just wonder if Obama will look as credible. Certainly McCain has never majored on the economy (though he’s gone out on a welcome limb on free trade)
32,40 — re US state-by-state economy.
Here is a USA Today flash diagram based showing which states are expanding and which in recession.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/graphics/recession_states/flash.htm
It illustrates this story
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-03-04-local-differences_N.htm
45. Indeed. A definite exception to the normal rule. It’s a shame for his sake that this is isn’t a site dedicated to betting on celebrity awards, rather than politics.
Thanks Sparky but I just found it.
Harry at 43. I think that’s fair comment about some of my predictions but not MJCP’s and certainly not his US ones. I agree he’s sticking his neck out at post one but since I got interested in the US elections I’ve found him to be one of the more accurate posters.
(PS Watch Barclay’s in 6 months. I’m still buying)
tom fairfax @ 49 — Reagan came in on the back of the Iranian hostage crisis.
52. Given you still think your Barclays tip is some kind of success, it’s not surprising you have a positive view of Mr.Partridge’s predictions as well.
Please enlighten me with some more ‘tips’, as I need some more cash to finish renovating my barn…
52 Barclays Bank is an interesting test in deciding who to blame for Northern Rock.
If the crisis is confined to deregulated Building Societies playing at banking, it is the Conservatives’ fault. If “real” banks go down, Labour must carry the can.
Roger/Tyson - I have to say my grandmother was very keen on Silver Jubilee stuff (she saw it as an investment I think) but I can’t imagine her insulting anybody! I’m not sure you’ve got quite the right ’sub-group’ really. Conservative perhaps, but they are (despite their own best efforts) still something of a broad church.
This is not going to change the mathematics alone.
There is, however something going on there and Obama’s campaign’s robustness is going to be tested fairly persistently until such times as he can’t be overturned. The smooth ride is firmly obver and has been for a few weeks.
There are two schools of thought on whether Clinton’s camp has something more explosive on Obama related to this particular pastor guy. a) If they do they’d have used it by now, b) they do and are sitting on it.
The pastor isn’t a politician I presume and, as such, is of limited importance.
A temporary focus on Obama’s Christianity can only help him, the disgusting rumours propagated by the right (I presume) about him - not knowing the words to the national anthem being another - need to be stamped out before they assume concrete reality in the minds of some.
The danger is not the pastor, the danger is the false rumours, and it is the great danger for Obama.
13 - Clinton needs near to 70% of the remaining superdelegates to break for her on current projections from the states left to vote.
The figures are against her on all fronts.
54 Harry,
Roger myself Tyson and I believe Mathew Partridge called it right about Blair and no charges over cash for coronets.
Where for a year on here we got the certainty of what was going to happen by wet dream types.
I just can’t take this preacher issue seriously I am afraid.
My all time favourite film is “The Blues Brothers” and wathcing the preacher clip on YouTube just now reminds me too much of the Reverend Cleo of the Triple Rock - James Brown doing his thing, y’know.
I kept expecting to see dancers looping the loop and John Belushi cartwheeling through the audience (if you have ever seen the film you will understand…)
Are Americans really going to take all this seriously?
56 - The Silver Jubilee (and indeed the subsequent ones) were very much celebrated by the working classes. Being myself, in 1977, a member of that class (and it still informs my politics at every move) I can recall the great outpouring of pride in the monarchy.
With my family I was also attended some of the golden jubilee celebrations which new labour seemed to think would be much less popular than it was.
Strikes me that what the Pastor said is true and that is why it hasn’t gone down well. Obama has got to be careful not to alienate those who agree with Pastor Wright.
61. It was popular, what with 2 million on the mall and all. But for most people the Golden Jubilee was just a bank holiday. I can’t remember the Silver, but my guess is that something irreversible happened in the intervening 25 years and the Monarchy will never recapture that affection.
I think some people are missing the point here.
The plan is that Obama will be painted as basically anti-American. This effort will become more prominent in due course.
As to some of the anti Clinton invective on here not being personal, are you kidding, we’ve had her called a witch, evil and so on. Maybe its true and I have nothing politically in common with her, but the idea that this site has been the home of cool headed analysis regarding this race has been patent bollocks.
One other thing I’d like to mention is a story about U2. Just before they took off into the big time, legend has it that they played in a small venue in Belfast. If you are to believe all the people who said they were at that gig the place must have had about 60 000 people at it….sometimes I get that feeling about some elements of Obama’s support and, it is support, on here. It’s retrospective.
On the plus side, I have no doubt it has helped shift betting markets and done my back pocket no harm.
39
At least now Clinton and Mcain don’t need to produce any camapign TV ads for their campaign, just play a 30 second slot of the Revd Wright’s rant and that will drive voters their way in droves.
55
“If the crisis is confined to deregulated Building Societies playing at banking, it is the Conservatives’ fault. If “real” banks go down, Labour must carry the can.”
No. Labour carry the can whatever because of the changes they made to the banking regulation system.
“Equally guilty was the new system of banking and financial-market supervision put in place by Mr Brown. Fragmented among three institutions, and manned by people who were either unaware of what was going on or unable to communicate what they knew to one another, it failed its first big test. ”
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9988865
Thanks Roger for the u tube clip on the preacher. What a wonderful speaker, charismatic, energising, and entertaining. No wonder Obama went to his church to listen to him speak.
64 Yokel I agree with your comments, and I know you called it right in New Hampshire against the consensus on here.
Where are you now in the democratic race and the general election in the fall?
18 Whatever
64 - There was a time, around New Hampshire, when there was only a strangely diverse coalition left of seant, myself and a few others who were still certain that Obama would become the nominee. I’m sure some really did waver then but some of us didn’t!
32 There doesn’t appear to be anything in the story regarding Michelle Obama’s thesis. The campaign are giving the thesis to any journalist who asks. A copy has been placed on politico.com.
46
We bought a 3 bedroom property in North Dakota 15 months ago for less than 6,000 [pounds sterling.] The property stands in a third of an acre and came fully furnished.
We love to spend spring and fall there; although winter is a little chilly and summer a little too warm.
Malcolm
Marc Ambinder reports on the “strike” of Hillary supporters at the Daily Kos. Just how divisive can this get?
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/prohillary_writers_on_strike_a.php
64 - Absolutely agreed. Ding Dong seems to have been the comment used most about Hillary. Ding Dong has never really been classified as informed political debate.
Re the pastor: If Obama has told the truth in this interview it will have very little impact on his chances. If it can be proved that he lied and he can be attacked as anti-American then, in the words of Matthew at post 1, he’s toast.
I hope that he is telling the truth. If he is lying it will alienate almost every person Obama has encouraged to embrace politics and the hope he has given to the whole political system for invigoration.
And will add to the “all politicians are lying bastards” school of thought. A terrible thing.
37. I’m sure Matthew is a nice guy, and I don’t think his political instincts are entirely off. I think they’re just obscured by one very large factor: The Iraq war. He believes it was highly moral and righteous, and takes opposition to it quite personally - considering it either opportunistic, naive, or traitorous.
As a result he overestimates people like McCain and Blair, and detests people like Obama. As long as you recognise this, you can listen to Matthew’s tips and dismiss the ones where this might play a factor. That’s what I do.
On the topic at hand, I don’t think anyone can deny this is a big issue, and people won’t dismiss it easily. However, Obama has done a good as job as he could at disowning it, and it helps he denounced the comments back in January. It also helps that he says Wright’s rhetoric comes from an older generation who had been treated worse and harbored a lot of anger, whereas he was a new generation that wanted to move past this. He thus manages to score a positive point in a negative story. He also made the valid point that you can agree with a pastor’s religious views and not their political ones - I know a great many Americans who feel the same thing about theirs, so this could chime.
My overall feeling is that this story will run, and it will dent his progress among Republican-leaners fairly heavily, but it shouldn’t affect the Democratic race too much. Clinton will still hold on to her blue-collar support where richer liberals might even rally round him. We don’t like to see our favourite candidate attacked.
Let’s also not forget that McCain has accepted endorsements from anti-Muslim and anti-Catholic pastors during this campaign - even when he has previously proclaimed they were hateful bigots. That won’t hurt McCain too much, but it will lessen the hit on Obama.
I also should clarify that Michelle Obama did say her infamous gaffe twice, once without “really” and once with it. The second wasn’t a response to criticism as both happened before the story blew up.
70. I remember putting Obama at 60% likely to win the day after New Hampshire.
67. I’m an Obama supporter, but come on, his preacher is clearly a nutter.
73 - Daily Kos has pro-Clinton writers? They haven’t exactly been much in evidence.
74 - That Was Rod Crosby who used the term, one person said it numerous times. Read the bylines of posts!
77 I often find myself wondering if Tyson is just being ironic.
I don’t doubt that the Preacher’s opinions are widely shared on the American (and Western) far Left, but it would be electoral poison for Obama if US voters came to see such opinions as being his own.
79. I often find myself wondering ….
…I wouldn’t exercise yourself too much over it.
Italy lead by 3 with 10 mins left. Scotland for the wooden spoon?
The Scots suffer a last minute heartbreak…how sad hehehe
Viva Italia!
OT, Conservatives look to boost their fortunes in the north with a rview of better transport links to the north;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7298342.stm
Latest Rasmussen National Tracker sees a sharp move towards Clinton.
Obama 46 Clinton 45 (Yesterday it was 50-42)
McCain 47 Obama 42
McCain 46 Obama 42
Favourables:
McCain 55/41
Obama 50/49
Clinton 47/51
They say: “Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll.”
And: “McCain’s polling numbers against Obama began improving during the run-up to the hard-fought Democratic Primaries in Ohio and Texas. Obama has a three-percentage point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters but is currently supported by just 65% of Democrats. By way of comparison, McCain earns the vote from 80% of Republicans.”
These numbers suggest that the pastor stuff may be starting to have an effect and that the primary is really starting to hurt the Dems chances in the General.
Kieran @ 84 re Rasmussen finding move to Clinton.
It might be pastorgate, it might also be Bear Stearns. Or both.
84. In view of these numbers, McCain is surely very good odds at 1.9-1 to be President.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential poll for Connecticut :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 38% .. Obama 50%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/connecticut_presidential_election
68. I believe that Obama should get the nomination. If he lost it he really doesnt desrve it after getting the lead he has. Months and months ago I took the view (posted on here) that the Dems would baulk or seriously wobble over putting Clinton up as nominee. I think shes got no more than a 30% chance of getting the nomination and her strategy now is clear, win the popular vote then point out shes a swings state winner. Despite the cries of foul, it makes perfect sense for her to shift the emphasis and if she does manage it, I’d have to respect her sheer fight. It isn’t evil, it isnt nasty that will have got her there, its sheer graft and fighting will.
It is the Democrats to lose in November whoever they put up. Having said that, if there is one guy amonst GOP ranks capable of getting enough of the US populaion to forget about a pretty poor two term republican presidency its John McCain. I originally felt Hillary’s devisiveness would be the most likely killer of Democrat chances if she was the nominee and they did lose but I’m changing my mind on Obama. I think he is vulnerable in a proper trench warfare fight for the presidency as he has proven in some states where its been an absolute slugfest. If he gets the nomination and gets ahead early for November he’s a good cruiser and front runner and will win well.
If its nip and tuck, he’ll lose because I think given a straight choice in the privacy of the ballot box he just won’t get enough people to mark beside his name. There is something uncertain about Obama for a lot of Americans and its not just his inexperience or his colour, its more vague but its there.
One final thought on McCain having endorsements from fairly strident preachers who are anti-catholic and anti-Muslim. Just guessing but that probably reflects a hell of a lot of Americans. McCain has also wasted no time on occasion in making it clear that he doesnt agree with them.
Obama needs to watch himself because they are going to push this ‘not much of an American’ line if they can. That may not stop some on the left, or some of the black vote but its sure as hell will stop enough if it sticks.
Look at it this way, if Obama is the Democratic nominee with his message premised on hope, inspiration and inclusiveness and loses it doesn’t say much for America as the 21st century moves forward considering 1) how much America’s image has tanked in recent years and 2) the socio-economic insecurity millions of Americans appear to be facing.
Perhaps, Obama has been inspired by the social gospel and good works of Wright, it does not follow that he subscribes to Wright’s political views. Wright’s frame of mind was shaped by the struggles of the 1960s, and what he considered a lackluster effort on the part of many Christians to embrace civil rights. Nevertheless, Obama has rightly, loudly and unequivocally, denounced such inflammatory remarks on the part of Wright, just as he has done those of Farrakkan.
Republicans have been keeping tent with bigoted hate mongering ‘Talibangelicals’ for years. Obama might be acquainted with ‘radicals’ but he’ll not to slave to their whims and follies like Republicans are to the them ‘reactionaries’.
Obama is a post-racial candidate. Were he just some other black-identity political agitator running on grievances I could NEVER have endorsed him.
Either way come November, irrespective of who is the Democratic nominee, it will be a straight forward choice between a pragmatic, populist-leaning liberal Democrat and McCain, something of a liberarian-leaning conservative ideologue.
As for the issues it will be national security vs the economy, one which should favor McCain, the other the Democrat. Whether or not, the desire for socio-economic security trumps that of national security moving forward, it’s too early too tell.
But the longer the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, and the more bruising it becomes in that supporters of Obama and Clinton become so entrenched and increasingly likely to spit their dummies out should their guy or gal not win, I give the early advantage to McCain. Quite depressing really.
The thing is had McCain challenged the even-then hapless Bush for the Republican nomination in 2004 and won, I may have been open to endorsing him. I was never too struck on Kerry, but endorsed him nevertheless because he wasn’t Bush.
The Republicans had their chance to nominate McCain in 2000, who I’m sure would have brought, at the very least, a basic level of competence to the Oval Office but it’s now 2008. Bush has effectively destroyed America’s image; and with the US economy, at best, in a state of stagflation or, at worst, sinking into a recession, it’s time for CHANGE and a repudiation of the FAILED policies of the past eight years.
85. I think a number of issues are at play here and there is the potential for a sense of an uncertain feel about Obama to emerge.
84. It was always going to be a short term hit when people have only heard the allegations but not the response yet. We’ll have to see how this plays over the next week to know.
88. Most Americans are probably anti-Muslim but you’ll only get anti-Catholic feeling in the deep South. It’s the anti-Catholicism one that will hurt him.
Yokel @ 88 re Obama. The other thing to watch is where defectors from the Obama camp (if any) go to. He has been succesful in attracting independents and Republicans who may go home to McCain come November.
Dave Hawk @ 89 re Obama’s message. The audacity of hype? I suspect the Bear Stearns news, if things get worse, may send people scurrying for the couple who fixed the economic mess last time a Bush left office.
89. How any GOP guy is showing well or sometimes is ahead in the head to heads given two terms of Bush is beyond me. Yet there he is.
There is one reason for that, McCain is seen as almost as much of a change as a Democrat. If that perception remains and can’t be broken the Dems are not going to walk into the Whitehouse easily.
94: agreed, Yokel. McCain is not Bush. Major was not Thatcher. Brown was not Blair.
92. McCain won’t mess about. He’ll stay away from that anti- catholicism business.
93. That is very important indeed. I understand that the Dems have been seeing big figures in their primaries but that is no guarantee that they will go Democrat in November.
84 - Why Clinton is trying to derail the Dems chances of election I cannot work out. She knows that the figures make it a virtual impossibility for her to win and she has also said that McCain is more qualified to be president than Obama. It sounds far fetched but is there more evidence that she is attempting to secure a short term GOP victoryfor her potential personal gain? There is a compelling argument to be made on current behaviour.
The GOP have, however, made the sensible choice in good time and, whatever you may think of his politics, it was Romney who enabled that. More and more Romney is coming out of this well, his judgement has been far superior to anything from the Clinton camp.
What will really finish Obama is the support he’s been given by Mystic Mogg.
ukpaul @ 97 — Clinton should get out now Obama is ahead? Should Obama have quit when Clinton looked a certainty?
It will be worth looking at how this pastor thing is now being reported. Here’s how it’s presented on FOX’s homepage:
‘Inflammatory, Appalling’
Obama denounces pastor’s sermons.
Pastor once was Obama’s spiritual mentor, but now the Democratic candidate is rejecting his ‘appalling’ sermons.
94. I think this will change, unless Iraq gets dramatically better, which I don’t see happening. McCain is now linked to Bush through:
The Iraq war
Aggressive positioning on Iran, seen by many as Iraq version 2.0
No real healthcare plan
Bush tax cuts for the rich
Cosying up to evangelicals
Being close to Musharraf
Mutual kind words to each other.
This has to hurt him as it is pushed time and time again.
94 Yokel. Part of the reason that McCain is competitive is that he is the undisputed GOP candidate, whereas Clinton and Obama are still in the trenches.
The prospect that having won the elected delegates, the popular vote and the states that the Democrats enforce politically that the black man must sit at the back of the bus will shatter the Democratic Party coalition for years to come and hand the White House to McCain.
99 - Obama is not just ahead but a near certainty to win. Romney got out when he was much closer to winning than Clinton will have to do, it’s just that he had realised that, if he carried on, he would have hurt the GOP’s chances in the general. Game, set and match to Romney, exit Clinton in disgrace. I’m sure Romney will be rewarded in the future, I don’t like the guy much but he made the right decision.
Clinton was never a ‘certainty’ in any case, the only time she led was before any vote was cast. You don’t win an election on opinion polls.
Socrates @ 100 on why McCain can’t win.
Be careful. That is a partisan Democrat analysis. Of course McCain has no healthcare plan: that is a Democrat issue. Evangelicals vote too. The tax cuts for the rich will ensure the billionaires open their cheque books and their right wing think tanks will swiftboat Obama or Clinton. Musharraf is seen as an ally (and Obama’s enthusiasm for bombing Pakistan is thrown into relief; at least Iran is seen as hostile to America).
97. This is it for Clinton. She fails here she wont have a second run at this. It isnt surprising that shes throwing everything at it. It really is that simple. I dont think its arrogance or anything else at this stage. This is taking away this woman’s dream with no propsect of it returning.
I’m also a bit wary of her destroying the Dems chances. Whilst I can see very clearly her diviseness overall in the USA I think she carry the Democrat vote on election day pretty much as well as Obama. I also think that the idea that shes battle tested isnt wrong, she really cant be shat upon much more in a big vote swinging way. Obama on the other hand may well win a decent victory in November but there a number of ways in which he could be attacked that could do him big damage. His inexperience, his ‘un-americanism’(which may or may not stick) and his hot air. There could be a ‘where’s the beef’ moment that could do him damage somewhere along the line and if anyone can deliver that, its McCain who few would accuse of being vacuous.
101. You could be right.
Now it seems there is a bad smell against all 3 of the potential candidates for President, Obama, Clinton, and McCain - I think both parties need to re-evaluate their nominees and try for a clean slate without the baggage these people seem to be portraying - in November it will be a hold your nose election whoever you vote for - pretty nauseating in all ….
101/…but if Clinton did win the popular vote it is possible she could swing it. She has to do that though, which is clearly uphill.
107 Yokel. There is no realistic prospect of Hillary winning the popular vote. By any reasoned or indeed highly selective pro Clinton analysis she’ll fall short by around a minimum of 250k.
106. Dont know about that. You have the young untested but inspirational and aspirational, the tough woman who refuses to die and one very tough old geezer who pretty much rose like Lazarus.
Two are very very well known, one in many ways is not. That unknown factor may well be a winner for him and may represent his greatest vulnerability.
You have the candidate who is tarred with the stain of racist surrogates, the one who is tarred with the pastor from weirdness, and the one who is tarred with a fundamentalist pastor … take your pick - I know which one I will choose - none
102 - Clinton is right to continue at least until Pennsylvania. There is still a chance she can win the popular vote, especially if Michigan and Florida re-run. To compare to Romney is ridiculuous. He was behind McCiain about 700-200 in delegates with only 1,200 needed. Clinton is less than 200 delegates back with 2,025 needed. Having a nomination calendar that runs from Jan - June indicates the Dems are happy with there nominee being known in June or they would have the primaries over. If she loses the popular vote after all the primaries then she should drop out and support Obama.
She has gone too far in attacking Obama though, the Ferraro comments in particular. BUT her campaign is not very dirty by American standards and nothing compared to what the GOP will throw at Obama. There is a case for saying it is better for Dems to know now whether he can stand up to the scruting before he is the nominee. If he comes through this difficult patch he will be stronger for it.
On the match-ups it is unsurprising that McCain is doing well given the Dem base is divided (that is shown in the Rasmussen figures). That is only a problem if the loser doesn’t endorse and campaign for the winner. If the loser accepts the result and it is seen as fair the Dems still have lots of time to regroup.
re 39 stark, staring, bonkers - but that’s evangelical Christians for you.
108. If thats so Jack, shes out but there is so much conflicting words amongst US writers about it. I have taken the view for a while that there is no way the superdelegates would overturn the popular vote. Just won’t happen. If one had delegates and one had popular vote that’d be different though, there would be an opening. By the way I have no money on either nominee. Never backed Obama and my lay on Hillary was bailed out ages ago when for months her price just stayed at around the same levels. If I’d have followed my nose and waited it out I would have done well.
Anyone noticed how quiet Edwards is?
re 83 oh no they’re catching the new Labour disease. When you compare the UK with any other European country you can see that we need N-S high speed rail lines. It doesn’t need a review - it’s blindingly obvious.
108 - As I’ve said consistently since before TX and OH it is highly unlikely that Clinton will win the PV but there is a chance. In all the votes cast so far she is about 2% behind, hardly a massive gap. The assumption that you and others make is that the campaign remains relatively static. That is the most likely scenario, but not the only one. It is possible for things to move back towards Clinton, for a whole number of reasons; pastorgate, Rezko, the economy etc.
Take Pennsylvania. She is up about 15 points in the polls at the moment. A victory of that magnitude would net her a 350k-400k advantage. If things move her way that may become a 20 point win. Similarly NC. She is about 8 points behind at the moment. A swing to her could lead to a tie there. A win in NC would give her massive momentum.
Just to be clear - I don’t think these things will happen. The chances are probably less than 20%, and so the markets are probably overrating Clinton at the moment. But, given the difficulties Obama has gone through in the last few weeks it is understandable that Clinton is staying in to see what happens.
Northern Crock about to hit the news again as it sheds jobs and mortgages.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/march2008/northernrockjoblosses.htm
114. very true, however theres no money for it. they cant start making promises along those lines when there blatently isnt any cash to fund it.
113 Yokel. Well it’s well known that I could wipe out all Northern Rock losses from my Obama punting …. but hey Mike Smithson and I are just geniuses and modest to boot !!
Hillary …. ummmmhhhhh. I see only two viewpoints about Clinton’s continuing candidature :
Firstly, what I’ve called the ‘Micawber Option’ - Something will turn up !! - A political or personal Obama scandal of such politically seismic proportions that the party is forced to embrace Hillary as the saviour.
Secondly and more sinister that she damages Obama so badly that he limps on to a certain defeat in the Autumn and she is left as the ‘I told you so’ candidate for 2012. This is a very dangerous option as it must be clear that Obama lost the race on his own and without the unseen hand of Billary and Co.
Looks like a storm in a teacup to me. But as you say in your intro, the Republicans will return to it if Obama gets the nomination - good ammunition to paint him as an unpatriotic lefty. I like the way Obama still stands by his friend even though he repudiates his views.
Mrs Spaulding has just bought me his autobiography so after this weekend I hope I will be better informed.
Are we all willing Wales on? Hope so. Its going to be loud in our house this afternoon, in the north of England.
Good luck Wales. Fingers crossed.
120. iam, come on wales, get that grand slam (wearing my 2005 grand slam t-shirt)
121. A lovely image.
3 points!
120 Sally. As a Scot, I’m torn between the Auld Alliance avec Les Blues and Celtic empathy and Wales …… so I shall be utterly impartial and go and find an Italian to spit roast !!
England at rugby is like the Hillary campaign at primaries. We beat the nations that matter.
New poll: Tories 9 points ahead.
124 Mike S. I see our genial host has spent the afternoon drinking his cellar dry of ‘Blue Nun’ !!
123 My commiserations.
As a natural blonde [just] and therefore probably Anglo-Saxon in the genes department, have no real connection with the Celts, other than as an English Unionist through and through.
Wales v France….. the only time you will find me easily coming down on the side of ‘the reds’ against ‘the blues’.
124 [Mike] has just given 123 [Jack W] alittle salt for his spit roast!
125 - Where?
Allez les Bleus. (anyone but Wales)
currently 9-3 Wales)
129 John O. Tehran South ??
re 125. This appears to be Poller’s first comment on the site.
My guess is that there we might get two polls overnight - one from YouGov and the other from ICM. It’s not beyond the bounds of probability that YouGov could be back with a 9% Labour deficit though it would be a shock of ICM had that.
132 Mike S. You mean I’ve got to get my ARSE out twice tonight !! …. what’s a gal to do ?!?!
132. Is this false information?
134. sweating, are you?
102- ukPaul- you a teacher right?
I think you may well have to do some very remedial maths, early years level probably. To say that Romney was closer to winning than Clinton. Hmm slightly dubious.
I’ve checked the usual suspects and no sites have a poll. And its a bit early for Channel four news.
9% in a You Gov would be disappointing. 9% in an ICM would be huge.
135. A little, thought it had been a good few weeks for the reds.
139. The ‘reds’ are heading, Derby-like, for relegation.
119
” I like the way Obama still stands by his friend even though he repudiates his views.”
Given that he’s got a 15-20 year association with the guy, I don’t think he’s got much choice.
Sky reporting 9% tory lead in tommorrows NoTW. does say which pollster.
I wouldn’t find 9 in You Gov dissappointing at all.
Either we have a fake poster or a spy? We will see.
See Boulton and Co. blog The 9 pt lead in the NOW is mentioned there
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/
If its the News of the World then it will be ICM.
re 117 what we need is less money spent on roads and more on rail, more transfer of freight to rail. The M6 would be a picnic if 50% of the lorries were taken off it.
136 - Winner takes all states Tyson, winner takes all. PR makes it more difficult for Clinton, Romney could have benefitted disproprtionately from any McCain problem.
The maths is solid.
145 - If it is then the next Guardian ICM wil be interesting. Will the Guardian ICM/ non-Guardian ICM differences continue?
145 in which case it is a “huge” lead for the Tories and greatly better from the last ICM poll which had them almost level with Labour.
145. Yahoo! Palmer and co. are headed for oblivion.
147 - But most of the GOP states after ST weren’t WTA. McCain benefitted from the states that were WTA (NY, CT, NJ, AZ) being strong states for him.
“Of course, the family theme in Gateshead was preceded by the hoo-hah over the Tory leader allowing cameras from ITV into his home. The BBC were so cross, apparently, that someone recorded Cameron rehearsing his speech in the hall on Friday evening, with a view to broadcasting it on the Today programme. There was a huge row between the Beeb and Tory spin doctors, by all accounts”
A wise move to ditch that ridiculous idea…
Tories 16% ahead in YouGov
Just heard Youguv give Tories 16 point lead. Can it be true?
15. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/03/tories-surge-to.html
New thread methinks. Massive surge for tories in post budget polls.
This comment on SKY is interesting. Simon Carr at the Inde commented over the Marr/non-election interview that Sky were furious, describing Boulton as a ‘jealous god’.
‘Of course, the family theme in Gateshead was preceded by the hoo-hah over the Tory leader allowing cameras from ITV into his home. The BBC were so cross, apparently, that someone recorded Cameron rehearsing his speech in the hall on Friday evening, with a view to broadcasting it on the Today programme. There was a huge row between the Beeb and Tory spin doctors, by all accounts.
All a bit silly. I can’t see what all the fuss is about. I agree with Cameron that inviting the cameras into his home was “modern politics”. But I’m sure there will be plenty who disagree.
That argument certainly isn’t all over.’
Are Sky positioning themselves for the next round of photo shoots. The BBC trying strong arm tactics instead. So NuLabour!
Campbell always used the ‘access’ thing to good effect for Labour. Now its biting the BBC in the arse.