Should Ken be hitting the panic button?
March 16th, 2008
The 16% Tory lead poll - the detail
Reproduced above is an extract from the detailed data from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showing the Tories with their best figures for a quarter of a century. The paper is leading on the survey this morning.
By any account the figures are sensational and, if repeated at a general election, would see David Cameron returned with a three figure majority. But that could be more than two years away and a lot can happen in between.
The most immediate set of elections are the locals on May 1st together with the votes for the London Assembly and the London Mayoralty. The latter, of course, is being defended by Ken Livingstone for Labour against a vigorous challenge by Boris Johnson.
I have highlighted the responses for London. Even accounting for the fact that these relate to a general election, not the mayoralty, and the huge dangers of taking out a small sub-set from the overall numbers this won’t make pleasant reading for Labour’s campaign team in the capital. Interesting, as well, is the fact that the Lib Dems are doing better in London than in the country as a whole. Could that be a pointer to May 1st?
Fieldwork for the last YouGov London Mayoralty poll finished on February 21st and had Boris leading by 5% when second preferences were taken into account. A national voting intention survey carried out by YouGov at the same time reported a 6% Conservative lead.
You do your own extrapolation because we can only speculate about how Ken is doing with the Tories so far ahead nationally. My guess is that he is probably doing better - but by how much?
The other interesting features in the survey are the SNP share in Scotland and the massive lead that the poll reports for the Tories amongst the over 55s. The latter group, of course, are much more likely to vote than those in younger age groups.
As soon as the poll came out last night I backed Johnson hard in several betting markets. The best price you can currently get is 0.94/1.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
As a conservative, I would advise against enjoying the hatred of Labour.
The reason Labour is doing so badly is a reflection of the damage they have done to Britain.
I dont know if it is possible to recover Britain to a position enjoyed in 1997, economically sound, racially & ethnically relaxed, with accountability & transparency and individual rights.
Did not anyone see the alarm bells when they saw how Labour treated the 82 yr old Walter Wolfgang?
Did you think rule under such thugs would bring peace, prosperity and security?
For so called “Political Punters”, you should have spent less time looking at short term polls and more time looking outside your window.
Labour will be held responsible by the sheeple.
Winning the General Election, is the first step on a very long march.
Hey!!
I’ve been wrapping up my Bangkok affairs, so I haven’t checked in for a while but -
YAYYYYY! Quite astonishing poll figures. Yes they reveal great volatility, the YouGov one in particular does seem like an outlier, and yet…. We do now seem to heading for big, solid Tory leads, maybe even around 8-12%. Enough for a handsome win, I’d say, given the tactical voting unwind, the change in boundaries, &c.
So why have we seen this apparent step change/paradigm shift/choose your own cliche?
I’d like to echo Sean Fear’s neglected point from last night. Is it so inconceivable that the EU Betrayal has damaged Brown and Labour?
Yes I know, Mike, that “the EU doesn’t bother voters”…. but being lied to by the government, and being treated like idiots, and being regarded as too stupid to know your own country’s business - this DOES bother voters.
I think Labour have done themselves permanent damage with their disgraceful behaviour on the referendum promise. Good.
Likewise the Lib Dems. You stupid mealymouthed traitors with your “I hope the English are defeated” Andrew Duff MEP. 16 points! Just 16 measly points. You are treading very murky water, with your embarrassing burp of a leader, and you may be headed for oblivion. That’s what YOU get for blatantly lying to the people when your only possible USP is “we are the good guys”.
You ain’t the good guys any more. Tut tut.
It’s notable that the two parties doing well here: Tories and the SNP, are the two parties that haven’t behaved with imprisonable deviancy on Europe.
Not that it’s all down to Europe, of course. Most of it is taxes and incompetence and sheer dislike of the government.
Anyway I am back to Britain this week, and I am almost immediately going off on a round Britain tour, to research locations for my thriller.
It’ll be a good chance to test the Labour-hating waters of the entire nation. And I mean the entire nation. Check that Labour deficit in the north. 9%! In the north!
I’m also off to Ireland but I fully expect to find Labour hated there as well, even though it’s an entirely seperate country. Labour are even hated in Asia. Last night a Siamese DVD seller on the Sukhumvit Road told me that Gordon Brown is a “creepy little weevil” and this guy has never actually heard of Britain.
Labour - hated here, there and everywhere. Heh.
These Scottish results are largely in line with other recent sub-samples of GB-wide polls. For example, here are the changes on the last YouGov voting intention poll, for the Daily Telegraph:
Scotland: Westminster voting intention
Sub-samples of GB-wide polls
YouGov 13-14 Mar 08 (+/- YouGov 25-27 Feb 08)
Sample size: 207 (181)
1. SNP 37% (+4%)
2. Lab 30% (-3%)
3. Con 18% (+1%)
4. LD 11% (-3%)
5. Grn 3% (+3%)
6. BNP 1% (+1%)
oth 0 (-1%)
Apart from the eye-catching numbers for the two big parties, it is also well-worth noting the scores for the minor parties, because they could mean an awful lot of seats changing hands at the next UK general election. This confirms, for the umpteenth time, the minor (very minor) renaissance for Annabel Goldie’s Scottish Conservatives. At the very worst, we know that the Scottish Tories are not losing further ground.
It also confirms the more than halving of support for the Scottish Lib Dems since they hatcheted Charlie Kennedy. We have have tons of polling evidence now placing the Scottish Lib Dems in the 10% - 12% bracket, and whatever they do (including having a reasonably good Scottish conference in Aviemore recently) they cannot break out of their low/sub-teens prison.
And the findings published yesterday are not a million miles away from the last ‘proper’ Scotland only poll, by YouGov for the Scottish Daily Express in January:
Scotland: Westminster voting intention
Sample size: 1343
fieldwork: 3 - 8 Jan 2008
1. Lab 36%
2. SNP 30%
3. Con 18%
4. LD 12%
oth 5%
The only significant change since the beginning of the year is that Labour and the Scottish National Party have swapped places at the top of the table.
Lab’s reputation as guardians of the economy is shot. Asked “The government spent too much in the good times forcing it to raise taxes as the economy slows down” in this survey - whatever the age, gender or region the agree vs disagree figures are about 65/15.
O/T - Eurosceptics - if you think Lisbon represents a power grab by the EU have a look at this comment by the broadly euro-positive Economist - http://tiny.cc/0lzj3
I’m amazed by the reaction to this poll! These are the sort of figures you would expect, during a third term. The main opposition party should be enjoying this sort of lead: normal service has been resumed.
What of course should not be presumed, is that this will be the situation in two years time, of course it could be worse.
Having reached this position the Tories now have to maintain it, any sign of the government clawing back, and the jitters will start.
There is also about 45/20 that Darling is not up to the job. And the survey shows that a massive 4% of people think Ed Balls should be the next chancellor. Who are these people?
6 - come off it Coldstone - I agree that the headline figures are volatile but when people agree 4 to 1 that Brown has screwed up economic policy over the last five years, that is a killer. People are not buying Brown’s “not me guv” schtick. Only an end to a world economic downturn over the next 18 months could help rescue their reputation, but that isn’t going to happen.
3. seanT
I think that that astounding statement by the Liberal Democrat Andrew Duff MEP is going to cause the Lib Dems as much pain as Ed Ball’s idiotic “So what?”
Just for the record, you get the quote slightly wrong. What Mr Duff actually said was:
http://www.theenglandproject.net/wordpress/?p=501
http://englandexpects.blogspot.com/2007/05/what-t-t-t-t-duffer.html
http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/002072.html
9. I missed a bit. Should read: “… as much pain as Ed Ball’s idiotic “So what?” will cause Labour.”
9 - Stuart - this is the kind of delusion you see amongst some europhiles with the English as scapegoats for the lack of euro intergration. Read the link in my previous post for one example of why a federal Europe (or anything like) wont happen.
8
The longer a government is in power, the more likely it is that events, particularly economic events will turn against it.
If a week is a long time in politics, then two years is a millennium.
Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus webite seems to be having problems this morning. I am unable to get access to:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
This is a shame as Baxter has the only widely-available Scottish Westminster seats calculator that I am aware of. However, I know that Rod Crosby and perhaps one or two other pb.com regulars do have their own spreadsheet models. Can any of you give us an indication of which Scottish seats would change hands under these figures (SNP 37, Lab 30, Con 18, LD 11)?
I am presuming that both the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Lib Dems would be seeing very heavy seat losses under such a result.
6 - Coldstone, sorry to disappoint you but far from getting the jitters I think the Tories will be almost zen-like in their calm, given their recent experiences: solidly behind in the polls for over a decade, saw green shoots of recovery when Cameron took over, built some reasonably impressive leads until Blair resigned, fell behind during the Brown honeymoon, faced him down in October and overtook Labour again, kept a stable lead for the past couple of months but watched it shrink a little. Now they’ve hit a new high.
All serious Conservatives know that the underlying fundamentals are good because there are four big factors playing in their favour: Cameron has made them electable; Brown is a permanent liability; the economic downturn has undermined Labour’s strongest point; Clegg has failed to boost the Lib Dems.
Anyone who predicts the political future with certainty is a fool but the signs point in one direction.
12 - yes to a certain extent, but after having been told for ten years about “Gordon Brown’s towering intellect” and his “prudent economic management” that is now exposed. People don’t like being fooled. Yes if David Davis was Tory leader Labour would have a chance but people like Cammo.
A1 hatchet job on Tripod today by Sian Lloyd. Are all LimpDems on the sauce?
Lembit Opik was a drunken, tight-fisted, shambolic show-off with hideous clothes. He said he was psychic and that asteroids will destroy Earth. No wonder he told me, ‘You mark my words. I’ll end up in No. 10′…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_article_id=534868&in_page_id=1879
15. piechucker, when it comes to Europe I suggest you just shut up. You merely make your embarrassing case even worse - every time you speak on the matter.
For instance, in that Economist piece you link to, it says this about the new EU President brought in by the Constitution:
“The role needs to be defined in time for the first president to take office on January 1st next year, assuming Lisbon is ratified on schedule”
So. Let’s get this right. We are signing a Constitution, (or a Treaty, or whatever) which creates a new EU President - and…. HIS POWERS HAVE YET TO BE DEFINED.
So that’s nice. Just sign the Treaty here. Don’t worry about the small print. Oh he’s just a president. Means nothing. What’s that you say? What are his powers? Er, that’s yet to be defined. But stop worrying about it. That’s how we do things in the EU. Yes. We get you to sign first. So. Just sign. Yes. Just sign here. Now.
That’s not the way I like to negotiate contracts, don’t know about you.
And anyway, if the treaty is so piffling you won’t mind giving us that referendum - promised by every party - will you?
Europhiles! *Ugh.*
Now back to the happier topic of Tory resurgence. I agree it is very difficult to see quite how Ken can win, if these Yougov figures are in any way right.
Irony of ironies: the man who was only allowed back in the Labour party because he could win in London, may lose in London cause of a vicious midterm swing against the Labour party.
The Times poll has a sample size of 2300 which is very large, how does that effect the usual sampling eror of +/-3%?
Again, a small sample size, but note the London BNP vote. If 4% of Londoners really were prepared to back them in a general election, I’d say they could certainly be expected to get onto the London Assembly, given it’s a local election on a lower turnout. In Hertsmere, just the other side of the boundary with London, we now pick up a fair smattering of BNP supporters with our surveys, and canvassing.
14
Not convinced! I’ve seen things change one way, quickly, I’ve seen things change back the other way just as quickly.
If this was election year, I’d certainly agree with you, but it isn’t.
I ran an awful lot of marathons, (too many my wife says) I’ve seen runners full of puff at 18 miles, seen them collapse at the roadside at 22, there’s a long way to the tape.
Martin Baxter’s websites are up and running again.
If you run yesterday’s YouGov findings through Baxter’s Scottish Westminster seat calculator you get:
1. SNP 27 seats (+21 seats)
2. Lab 22 seats (-19 seats)
3. LD 7 seats (-4 seats)
4. Con 3 seats (+2 seats)
The seats changing hands would be:
Scottish National Party gains from Labour:
Aberdeen North (Frank Doran)
Aberdeen South (Anne Begg)
Ayrshire North and Arran (Katy Clark)
Dundee West (Jim McGovern)
Dunfermline and West Fife (Lib Dem-held since 2006 by election: Willie Rennie)
East Lothian (Anne Picking)
Edinburgh East (Gavin Strang)
Edinburgh North and Leith (Mark Lazarowicz)
Edinburgh South (Nigel Griffiths)
Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling)
Glasgow North (Ann McKechin)
Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Des Browne)
Lanark and Hamilton East (Jimmy Hood)
Linlithgow and East Falkirk (Michael Connarty)
Midlothian (David Hamilton)
Ochil & South Perthshire (Gordon Banks)
Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Jim Sheridan)
Stirling (Anne McGuire)
Scottish National Party gains from Liberal Democrats:
Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid)
Gordon (Malcolm Bruce)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Danny Alexander)
Conservative gain from Labour:
Dumfries and Galloway (Russell Brown)
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Michael Moore)
YES
Very interesting set of figures indeed for London. What I find most interesting is that the Liberal Democrats are so close behind Labour. It was not so long ago that a poll was putting Brian Paddick down in single figures, was it not?
I am not sure that Livingstone does have a personal vote any more. It may even have been turned into a negative personal vote. In which case, he could even be pushed into third place.
And then it would be a straight choice between Boris and Brian…. And then al those transfers….. Does Boris seriously poll above the general Tory level? Ought ot his level of support to be somewhat lower anyway?
What is certain is that this contest is looking more and more interesting.
re 20. Coldstone’s right to advise caution. In the summer of 1990, less than two years before the 1992 General Election, Labour was enjoying leads of upto 24.5% in the polls. The party, of course, went on to lose the April 1992 election by nearly 8%.
The one thing to say about that period is that the polls did not have today’s measures in place to deal with ongoing problem of over-stating Labour. So in their final surveys not one of the pollsters even hinted that Labour was going to be whacked by anything like the margin it was. Almost all the surveys had Labour leads and only one, on the eve of poll, put the Tories 0.5% ahead.
So you have to be careful of over-stating the ability to come back and what seems to happen is that the Tory vote tends to be more resilient than the Labour one.
The detailed figures really are very poor for Labour. By 86% to 7% people think the prices they pay are rising faster than the official inflation rate; by 60/31% they think one can cut public spending without affecting essential services; by 67% to 26%, they want the government to cut public spending and levels of taxation.
Still, I think a 16% lead is a bit too good to be true.
Labour have obviously mad a big mistake here. This was the man who could certainly have revived their fortunes.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/1603_porn_king_ben_dover.shtml
re 23. Indeed Tressage. I’ve just put a few quid on Paddick at 65/1 and 60/1 just to cover that eventuality.
You can envisage a situation where there’s a big move to Paddick as the only way of stopping Boris.
26 I thought he was an MEP.
24
As political loyalties have broken down, voters have become, ‘frothier’ much more swayed by good/bad news stories.
28
yeah isn’t there a Tory MEP called Den Dover?
I don’t know if this was mentioned last week, but the SNP have taken (minority) control over Stirling Council, from Labour (minority) control.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/tayside_and_central/7290360.stm
O/T BBC Scotland reporting on Bid to separate future elections.
“The Scottish Government has launched a bid to separate future Holyrood elections from council ballots”
31. Oddly, the BBC says that Stirling was under a Lib-Lab coalition previously, but I am sure that COSLA’s website had it as a Labour minority council. Anyone got further info?
http://www.cosla.gov.uk/political_control.asp?leftId=10001C391-10766746&rightId=10001C391-11002366&hybrid=false
Panic no, but, um, active concern, yes.
Interesting no-tax-cut line:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/16/ntories116.xml
Will this reassure or discourage potential Tory switchers?
What does “hitting the panic button” consist of?
23 If Paddick took second place, with a gap of 10% or less behind Johnson, he’d win. A bigger gap than that is too large to close with second preferences, IMHO.
21. Stuart, I’ve seen your SNP colleague marcia speculate about the chances of a Con gain in East Renfrewshire. Are you surprised that the model doesn’t suggest that as an outcome? I’d have thought that was a classic AB seat that Cameron would have in his sights.
Whoops-a-daisy!!
“One in four Labour members quit party”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/One-in-four-Labour-members.3882921.jp
17 - Sean - your anger displacement binds you - the whole point about that article is that from the start the President of the European Council will be faced with many motivated enemies. His powers will be so limited that the role will be virtually meaningless.
33. Stuart, is Alex Salmond gonna call an EU referendum in Scotland? Is he able to muster the MSPs to do so? There are rumours he might.
I can see arguments either way. It could be seen as mischievous, and gimmicky, and it might end up as an albatross is he gets the expected No vote.
However the positives could be very significant. He would look trustworthy, compared to promise-breaking Labour. He would look democratic, compared to nasty elitist Labour, and he would of course, very seriously discomfort Gordon Brown and the entire Labour government, as they deny a vote to the rest of the country.
And he also would underline Scotland’s seperateness from the rest of the UK.
Must be tempting…
Let us suppose, Sean (36), just for the sake of argument, that Paddick and Livingstone are both in the lower 20s, with Paddick just ahead. There would be some 20% to 24% of transferable votes just waiting to be picked up by Paddick.
And let us also suppose that Boris is nowhere near as popular as his party seems to be…. After all, he is a clown aspiring to a serious job…..
I think the gap on first preferences could be much wider than 10%, and Paddick could very well still win.
Good, innit?
37. North Sydney Correspondent
Renfrewshire East could easily become a 3-way marginal. In Scotland such seats are highly volatile, and could go any way, often highly counter to Uniform National Swing.
Under the YouGov numbers it would be about:
Lab 34%
Con 32%
SNP 27%
LD 6%
Marcia could well be right!! I would absolutely LOVE to see Jim Murphy MP not only defeated, but totally humiliated
I am not a gambler, for a couple of reasons.
However, can someone clarify for me that “Conservatives To Have A Majority 1-25 Seats” at 8-1 means if won, for every quids gambled 8 quids would be paid?
I am thinking of putting 3 quids on, 1 quids on each possibility. Seems to me, this is free money so it wouldnt really be gambling.
41. so a series of guesses and assumptions makes you think the lib dems can win, and thats good? lib dems are desperate for good news.
42.”In Scotland such seats are highly volatile, and could go any way, often highly counter to Uniform National Swing.” Absolutely!
Suppose it’s Johnson, 42%, Paddick, 25%, Livingstone 24%, then Paddick would indeed win if all of Livingstone’s second preferences switched to him.
But in practice, while Paddick would get far more of Livingstone’s second preferences than Johnson, enough would go to Johnson, and candidates outside the top two, or not transfer at all, for Johnson to win. And Johnson would also pick up more second preferences from UKIP and BNP supporters than Paddick would.
42 I think that any eurosceptic would take great pleasure in his defeat.
Brown is going to lose Ken the London mayor’s job, and if he hangs around to the next election in situ will lose Labour an additional 60-70 seats than they might lose with Johnson, Miliband, or someone else more appealing.
39. Oh please. You aren’t even putting up an argument, you egregious sea-slug.
THE EU PRESIDENT’S POWERS ARE UNDEFINED. In the FT this week there is an article calling for him to be a proper president, able to speak mano a mano with Obama or Clinton. Tony Blair himself has said he only wants the job if it has proper executive powers, able to propose wars and the like. Others think the president shouldn’t have these powers, of course.
Whatever the case, all this debate proves is my central point: that the powers he will have are UNDEFINED, and this is AFTER we have ratified the Treaty in the Commons.
In other words: we are being asked to sign a blank cheque, and we are told to just hope and trust that the nice honest europhiles, like the lovely Lib Dem traitor Andrew Duff MEP, don’t try and take more power than they were supposedly promised.
Moreover, there isn’t a rat in heaven’s chance that, when Lisbon is passed, the president will be a nothing job. Because as soon as the treaty is done, the Federalists will be clamouring for him to have real powers. And they will have a case.
BECAUSE HIS POWERS ARE UNDEFINED IN THE TREATY
Really. Stop it now piechucker. For your own sake. This is pathetic.
Re the 2nd pref distribution. Just check this table here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2004
43- go for it big boy. Life is all about taking risks!
4, 9, 10, 13, 21, 31, 33, 38. Stuart, do you not think you’re in danger of over doing it a bit this morning? Any views on the London mayoral election?
50 Thanks. Norris was ahead of Hughes by 13.4%, on first preferences, but if you were to add in the second preferences for each candidate, the gap would fall to 0.5%. So, I would guess then that Johnson needs a lead of about 13% on first preferences, over a second placed Paddick, to win.
Does anyone know the order in which Yougov asked the questions?
If they asked all the other questions before voting intention, it could work the interviewees up into an anti Govt rant warping the results a bit.
On momentous occasions such as this, the words of great men are often quoted, Churchill, Chamberlain, Clegg!
Here’s a great quote from Blazing Saddles’ Lili Von Shtupp who sums up the likelihood of Ken’s chances, to wit
“Vhy don’t you admit it? He’s too much of man for you. I know. You’re going to need an army to beat him! You’re finished. Fertig! Verfallen! Verlumpt! Verblunget! Verkackt”
I’ll get my coat
52. Cerrig - “Any views on the London mayoral election?”
NO!! I don’t tend to comment on the internal affairs of foreign countries
(I don’t think much of that Livingstone chap though. What a chancer… )
49 - Sean - have you never made an agreement with anyone when you know the person will never get what they want, even though they believe they will. This happens all the time in Europe. The FT can ask for all they like, but the point is the pols wont want to lose power. This is how politics works - don’t you get it?
54 Standard practice is to ask the voting intention question first.
54.I thought that the headline voting intention was always asked first to avoid that scenario?
43
Conservatives To Have A Majority 1-25 Seats 9.00
Conservatives To Have A Majority 26-50 Seats 10.00
Conservatives To Have A Majority 51-75 Seats 11.00
Back em all at an average odds of 10.0, stake of three = 3/1 on a tory majority up to 75. Betfair only offering 15/8 on ANY Tory majority.
Seems a decent punt to me.
No way Tories go over 75, not a cat’s chance.
I wonder if there shouldn’t be odds offered on Johnson winning on the first round. He is campaigning hard on the ground, and Livingstone isn’t campaigning at all (presumably because there are so few Labour activists in London). The system is geared against first-round victories, of course, but that poll does have the Tories at 49% in London.
I’m more interested in the fact that Tory spokesmen are now openly talking about two terms - which of course Labour, with similar or better polls in the 1990s never did. Hubris or common sense?
54- I once asked this- the polls are always done the same way to ensure consistency.
My thinking is that when Brown and Labour get a lot of publicity their poll ratings plummets. Doesn’t bode well for an election campaign Gordon.
Sean, sorry (re your EU referendum query), but I have run out of “computer fun time”. Duty (more exactly: the wife) calls. I am away to really enjoy the rest of my Sunday.
Tally Ho chaps…
I’m sure you’re quite right to emphasise that it’s perilous to read too much into this poll where its implications for London are concerned - as has been the case in general for such polling data as there has so far been re. Ken, Boris and Brian. Maddening, isn’t it? Like you, though, I’d cautiously guess that Ken is doing better in the capital than Labour is nationally and equally cautiously speculate that he will improve his position as the election day draws nearer. Ken’s problem is that people may be weary of him, for a variety of reasons. But Boris’s problem remains with his credibility as a competent, organised politician. It hasn’t helped that genuine holes have been found in his transport policy. Team Ken and Gordon Brown have exaggerated these, but they are there. The Labour side is preparing another big push on this issue in the coming week. If it can get it into the foreground of the debate - and the Evening Standard will have other ideas - it seems sure to damage Boris. But, there again, how much?
ICM give figures of 37%: 31% and 9%, for Cameron, Brown, and Clegg as PM. They give the Conservatives a lead of 34% to 28% over Labour on the economy. Each of Yougov, ICM, and Populus now put the Conservatives ahead on the economy, which is probably the key underlying figure in the polls.
56. Stuart, perhaps you could start PoliticalBetting.sco ? Does your particular area of the northern UK have its own internet domain?
I suspect Labour hit the panic button a couple of weeks ago - the experiment of sending the MP for Salford to Birmingham to launch the class war in London.
Back to the actual campaign
64 Certainly, London local by-elections since May 2007 have not shown any great surge to the Conservatives - rather the reverse - a swing of about 3% to Labour compared to 2006, which would put Labour and Conservatives level-pegging in the Capital. But, much of that will be down to judgements on individual councils, rather than the parties as a whole.
But if Labour really were 25% behind in London, Livingstone would have no chance of winning.
It stick to my view that Johnson will win by about 52/48%, and that Paddick will perform creditably without getting into the top two.
Now Gordo has upset Her Majesty..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=535383&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
69 Concur totally. WRT to Paddick I think he’ll do well enough to almost make the top two but not quite. Do you feel that the Lib Dems could exploit that by standing him in a seat like Streatham at the election. If he has enough momentum from Mayoral election he could take it
70. annoying everyone arent they.
69 Being completely non-flippant,in the event of Boris Johnson being elected London major,I hope he would maintain the best possible public transport sysytem (an industry of which I have knoiwledge and interest) for the people of London-I hope he would NOT dogmaticaly rush into some form of privatisation for dogma’s sake
71 Have the Lib Dems chosen a candidate for Streatham? Paddick would be a good candidate there, but Lib Dem associations are notoriously resistant to having big names foisted on them.
The Lib Dems really have got to pick up two or three London seats off Labour to make up for likely losses to the Tories.
O/T Tory U-Turn in the HoL on tax status of peers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/16/ntories416.xml
Which is inept as i) the bill would have failed anyway and ii) raises the obvious cue bono? which the Torygraph answers…….
I think problem for Paddick is it needs to become more obvious that Ken will loose for him to turn into the ‘Stop-Boris’ candidate…..
52 Any thoughts on May in Wales
73 Oops,59 days now-2 months tomorrow-and still chewing happily on the gum replacement
57. I’m not even gonna argue with you any more, cause you don’t have an argument. Everyone agrees the powers of the EU President will be undefined:
EUObserver: “At present, of course, there is no EU President as such. The Lisbon Treaty creates a new and, as yet, undefined post”
NPR America: “It was perhaps in just such a spirit that Tony Blair floated his candidacy for the as yet undefined job of European president. …”
The Guardian. “With most countries currently focused on ratifying the Lisbon treaty through their national parliaments, decisions on the powers of the full-time president are unlikely to be made until the second half of the year [2008].”
Also the Guardian: “Tony Blair has been holding discussions with some of his oldest allies on how he could.. become full-time president of the EU council, the prestigious new job characterised as “president of Europe”. Blair… is increasingly willing to put himself forward for the job if it comes with real powers to intervene in defence and trade affairs”
The Times, January 2008: “MPs are being asked to vote on the revised EU treaty without key information about the powers it will create, a leaked document suggests.
“The paper, leaked from the office of the president of the EU, reveals that matters such as the possibility of a European army and the powers of an EU president will not be determined until after the revived constitution has been pushed through.”
To sum up. The powers of the EU president are very vague and undefined, as all agree. Some think he will become a serious executive player, pretty much a POTEU. Others think he will be hamstrung by opponents.
There is even more uncertainty for the future: europhiles have explicitly engineered the Treaty text so the POTEU role could be combined with commission president, thereby creating an even more powerful figure.
But this doesn’t matter. Whatever the case, my point is made, and yours is drivel. We are being asked to agree the creation of an EU president whose role is undefined. In other words: we are being asked to ratify this text without even knowing what it really means for our country and our own governance.
And still they deny us a referendum, and still they claim the changes are “piffling”.
End of argument. All Europhiles are liars. If you are not a liar, you are delusional. Either way you must now agree to stop talking about this subject, in which you are so clearly out of your depth.
74 Was just trying to pick that as an example of a seat that is within range but a slightly tougher nut to crack, hence one where Paddick with the glow from a good Mayoral contest and name recognition could be put to best effect.
I think they will compensate. I think IS would be certain, they’d have a decent crack at Holborn and St P, HH& K and even BC. They need to as you say for most of their London seats are in South West Lon which is swinging towards the Tories even harder than all the rest of London is and earlier starting in 2005 results. Only Twickenham and Ed Davey’s seat can be considered totally Ok by them
At the end of the day it all comes down to the economy, stupid, as Slick Willy once told us. The austrian economists have been proved right and as economic conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly, highly indebted nations like the UK and US will suffer far more than most. Brown’s over-stuffed, debt-ridden chickens are coming home to roost as Jeff Randall eloquently points out in today’s Sunday Telegraph:
“…Here in the United Kingdom we have been living a similar dream. Unable to fund all spending ambitions from income, too many Britons have cashed in part of their bricks and mortar for a blast of instant gratification. Worse still, so has the Government. Unwilling to live within its means, even with revenues of about £600 billion a year, Gordon Brown’s Circus and its troupe of performing puppets must borrow more than £40 billion next year to make ends meet. Its budgetary indiscipline makes us all more vulnerable to a sharp downturn…..”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/16/do1601.xml
New polling projections. Even I have to say that the figures look grim for Labour.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/16/british-polling-projections-conservative-majority-106/
A tacky bit of sleaze from Tory lords a leaping over hoops for Ashcroft :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/news/2008/03/16/ntories416.xml
73, London Transport has already been privatised, the buses; tubes.. all of it is operated by private enterprise.
Buses went yars ago, taxis have always been private and the tube went a couple of years back.
Perhaps that is why the bus service in particular has improved so much.
It’s tax cuts from the Tories …. Yippee ….. but not for at least four years …. Oh well …. I’ve marked it on my calendar.
Jack W will be 109 !!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/news/2008/03/16/ntories116.xml
21 Don’t you dare get rid of Swiss Tony. at this rate only Fabricant’s fabuluous quiff will be left in British politics. Stop this anti quiffery
84. government finances wont allow any cuts immediately.
81. Commendable honesty from you Matthew! But what makes you so sure it woz the Budget wot did it?
I must confess I have been out of the country, so am maybe unable to gauge personal and political reactions. But I thought the budget came over as dull, slightly depressing, but not catastrophic. Was the reaction so bad that it has caused, as you claim, a massive movement to the Tories?
If so, why?! What did Darling do so wrong??
I personally think there are many other factors at play - in part maybe just a dam of dislike and boredom finally breaking over Labour’s government of lies, spin and cant.
81 If Labour’s Ave it equivalent is worried that is news
76 I haven’t looked in detail, but I’ll do an item between now and May.
87 It can take a while for news stories to have a political impact, so while the budget can’t have helped, other factors (including the duplicity over the EU Treaty) have probably seeped into the public consciousness.
89 That was aimed at Cerrig but thanks look forward to it
There will be ‘no class war’ against David Cameron insists Stephen Carter, Chief Advisor to our Gawd. Indeed the Prime Minister has insisted Cameron be given a class to himself to re-educate the Conservative leader to the principles of Britishness, Prudence and Scottish moral rectitude :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-aide-no-class-war-on-tories-796603.html
re 84. JackW - you’ll be pleased to know that Cameron’s first chancellor, which as part of the gender equality programme will be the chick lit author and A-lister, Louise Bagshawe, will have a provision for the special tax treatment of those who have a green funeral.
83 Full de-regualtion has only come to Bournemouht since mid 06,when the municioal bus company Yellow Buses was sold to Transdev,the French rail operator,in the face of very aggressive competition from Wilts and Dorset,bought out by Go Ahead.By ‘agressive competiton’,I mean Wilts and Dorset delibeartely breaking the unwritten-rule locally for decades to not tread on Yellow Buses’, toes around Bournemouth.
In fairness,from a passenger point of view,fares have fallen,Wilts and Dorest have invcested heavily in new vehicles,so full privatisation has been a plus for the passenger.
Onelast point-I know some London based posters have not liked the ‘bendy’ Mercedes-Benz Citaro.Wilts operate some non-bendy Citaro-it is without doubt the most refined,quiet,smooth bus I have ever ridden on-whenever a Ciatro approaches a stop,and I recognise the Mrec badge on the front,I smile broadly,as I know a pleasurable ride awaits
89. Agreed, and along with Europe there’s Northern Rock, and the data loss, and the non-election, and the tired stunts, and cash for coronets, and the grasping Speaker, etc etc.
Put it all together and you get a sense of a government mired in incompetence, arrogance, sleaze and mendacity.
In other words: the exact same toxic mixture that did for John Major.
90, Sorry didnt realise that was for me. I don’t live in that part of the country any more so am not that close to things. Probably better to wait for Sean’s analysis.
92, A real lightweight if ever there was one. Wonder what she is currently doing with her time…..
92 Mike S. As a man in the second flush of youth, I can only look on in envy at those whose mortality will involve a cardboard box and tree hugging in Bedford !!
58 and 59 thanks for that, I was just trying to understand if there was any technical polling process that had accentuated Labour’s record level of 27.
On the other thread in the discussion of the impact of the budget it is true that the budget car tax hits hurt 9 out of 10 this year but in the following year there ar major tax rises for several family cars greater than the tax rises on Bentleys (source R4 Sat Money programme).
Just wait until that starts to filter through.
I also think that we could have reached a tipping point in the level of alchohol tax where trips to France will rise to such an extent that the overall booze tax raised in this country will decline.
Why is Boris keeping his mouth shut ….. Mmmhhhh Tricky one :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3537554.ece
On this wet and miserable Sunday, something to ponder, how GDP should really be measured: from the Economist.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10852462
The writer contends, that the US is already in recession.
Some of the number asked in YouGov’s questions are absolutely dire for the government. You can see why this is happening though. Labour stoked up the mantra of no more boom and bust. There would never again be a recession, says Brown. Then Alistair Darling and has to admit the economy is lookingdodgy and basically the government is just crossing its fingers and hoping for the best. The; No more boom and bust mantra was a good one while the economy was going well, but as soon as things go wrong, it’ll come back and bite the government, and thats exactly whats happening, I think.
94. In other words: the exact same toxic mixture that did for John Major
Not quite - this Govt does not yet have a Parliamentary party with a death wish……
Who’s really missing Tony Blair ??
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3559409.ece
91. i can see why their changing strategy, mainly because balls supports the previous one. the toff attacks have done NOTHING to the tories, and just made labour look bad. it isnt a supportable line of attack, seeing as most of the higher part of the labour party also went to public school.
In the small print of the ICM poll I see an interesting proportion of Britons think Clegg is the best man for the job of prime minister.
9%.
Yes, 9%.
Not even double figures.
Lib Dems, go back to your constituencies and prepare for pointlessness. Barely half of your own feeble number of supporters think Corporal Clegg is the right stuff.
I wonder why? Perhaps because Clegg looks like one of those nice but halfwitted male models you see in menswear catalogues, standing near a boat and wearing a big chunky jumper and a cagoul, as they point vacantly at something in the sky.
Oh dear. Poor Lib Dems.
100 Claiming to have abolished boom and bust, when economies have moved in cycles of expansion and recession ever since the Industrial Revolution, was hubristic .
This may not help Ken’s cause.
From Sunday Times
Developer gave secret donation to Ken LivingstoneJonathan Oliver, Political Editor
Ken Livingstone received a secret donation from a property developer with a conviction for fraud after the London mayor championed the businessman’s plan for a 46-storey skyscraper.
Gerald Ronson, the tycoon jailed for his role in the Guinness share-dealing scandal, wrote a cheque to Livingstone for £4,990 – just £10 below the £5,000 threshold at which donations have to be publicly registered with the Electoral Commission. The disclosure raises questions over Livingstone’s use of a legal “loophole” which has allowed him to keep secret the identities of campaign donors.
A spokesman for Livingstone, who is seeking a third term as mayor in May’s London elections, last night refused to reveal whether there were any other similar hidden donations.
Ronson, 68, made the payment to the Labour mayor’s re-election campaign two years after he received planning permission for the Heron Tower development.
I am scouring the bookies to attempt to get evens about Boris to win,but thanks to Mike they all go odds on.
104 Irrelevant. People don’t vote for or against the Lib Dems because they think their Leader may become Prime Minister
The New York Times looks at how the Super Delegates might break :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/us/politics/16delegates.html?ex=1206244800&en=96c114472a3805a9&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY
………………………….
104 seanT. Using your own analysis there is a miserable 2% who think eurobores should be returning to their households to watch the paint dry !!
The last poll taken before this one was Populus for the times where the fieldwork was done between the 7th and 9th of March. It’s figures were Labour 34% Conservative 37% Lib Dem 19%.
A difference of three points between Labour and Tory. Yougov now shows a sixteen point gap. There are three possibilities. Either Populus screwed up Yougov screwed up or thirteen people changed their mind in a week…….
My advice. Ignore……..
Meanwhile, China massacres 100 demonstrators. Comment from the usual leftie suspects here - zero. Now if it had been Israel…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/15/wtibet715.xml
105. Exactly Sean. The Conservatives did bring about their own downfall in the early 90’s to some degree (ERM in particular - Though Labour always forgot to tell people that they supported membership) but a lot of what happened in the early 90’s was global. Now Labour themselves are at risk of global forces,and after promising that they would ensure we would never again see a recession, they are hidesously exposed.
The fact is, NO government can ever promise total prosperity, just as no government can ever promise total security (with or without ID Cards
) and no government can ever promise a job for every citizen and all people will be lifted out of poverty.
109. Roger, we know YouGov has probably inflated the gap to some degree, but how do you explain the much more reliable ICM also showing a fairly dramatic shift (in ICM terms) taking place over a relatively short time?
106. This story has been floating around for a while. For ‘legal loophole’, read ‘no law broken’.
112. Roger has had a quick chat to his favourite waiter on the Cote d’Azur, and Gaston le Garcon assures him Labour are actually well ahead.
34
How in the name of heaven can the Conservatives even think of cutting taxes with the national debt at several trillion pounds? Labour economics!!!
101. Yes. A fair point. Indeed, Labour’s relative unity is probably the only thing that is saving them, right now, from complete collapse.
However it is arguable that the same unity of the parliamentary party around New Labour principles, and around things like Iraq, has led to a worse collapse in grassroots support - membership and activists - than anything suffered by the Tories, even in their direst days.
Moreover, we have yet to see how Labour will behave under real pressure: if we get a lot more polls with double digit leads for Cammo, who knows how frightened Labour MPs will react.
Slightly O/T..Despite the fact that Balls really is an odious and unpleasant leftie, is it not in fact now becoming very clear that he was absolutely right that McSporran should have gone to the polls last Autumn and taken advantage of the bounce.
Most commentators and supporters of all hues thought Labour would probably have won with a reduced but still overall majority. Despite the complacent denial from some lefties on here, it now seems that the Brown will be very very lucky to get even largest party status in a hung parliament.
Of course some sort of swing back is possible, but given all the factors discussed on here at length (particularly the economy) it seems increasingly unlikely.
As such we should not be having a go at Balls, Alexander and Co for the autumn election strategy. The fault lies entirely with the Grim Bottler for bottling what will probably be seen as his only chance of a Labour majority.
The total Lib Dem rating is the same as the Tory lead alone…
115. they arent, thats the point, they’ve just said they will do when they can.
61
Yes,Johnson seems to have a well organised campaign,have already received literature from him but zero from the other candidates.
re 109. Ignore which one Roger?
In fact the detailed data from Populus showed a 6% Tory lead but this was cut back to 3% because of the firm’s “spiral of silence adjuster”. Half of those who voted Labour last time and said they didn’t know or refused to answer were allocated to the party’s total. This was one of the biggest of such adjustments on record.
As I always say - A rogue poll is one where you don’t like the numbers that it produces.
119.The Conservative line has always been that cutting tax rates stimulates growth which in turn increases tax revenue.
They also consistently say that Britain is over-taxed. Both of these are credible arguments.
So why is it then that having identified the problem, and after arguing a well rehearsed solution for many years, do they suddenly balk at the chance to put it into practice.
116 governments in decline seem to go a bit mad. This would push Labour’s vote down a bit further if it went through. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/16/race.gender
117. Hmm. Debatable. The very last polls before Brown changed his mind - i.e. the polls that “had no bearing on his change of mind on calling an election” - showed a very hung parliament.
No?
And of course during the election campaign Cameron’s more likeable persona would have made serious grounds compared to grouchy Gordon’s weirdy grinfest.
And on top of that - during an election campaign the Tories would have made more of their Inheritance Tax superweapon (and maybe wielded some other secret winning proposals we don’t know about).
The Tories might well have won a slender majority…
In truth, we will never know.
109
Roger
Ist it conceivably possible that the electorate has finally had enough? In any event the previous poll was probably the rogue…
122 The Conservatives still have to work out where they stand on economic policy. One section of the party wants to deregulate business. Another section seems even keener on regulation than Labour.
116. Agree the collapse in grass roots support has been dire - one word ‘Iraq’ - but I don’t yet see the sort of issue that so poisoned the Tories in Maastricht for Labour. Yet.
Its mid-term, time to give the govt a good kicking……but I’m not sure the govt’s competence is damaged beyond repair, or the Tories are the next govt beyond doubt….
122. yes, but promising tax cuts when the economy is slumping and the government is massively in debt is pointless, people will see it as spin and not take the tories seriously. cameron and osborne have been very careful to say that they want to cut taxes, when they can, not immediately. one of the major mistakes they have made in the past is promising uncosted and unsubstainable tax cuts.
124. I agree with you entirely but surely he had a better chance then than now..maybe Balls and Co knew it would be all down hill from then on as I guess they know Brown better than anyone..
104 SeanT’s post paints such pictures they are always good reading. He does a stirling job keeping pbc worth visiting - an Antidote to the likes of JackW (potty humour) and Roger (pointless Comical Ali or Labour Army of the Undead, take y’ pick).
Luckily JackW’s posts are easy to spot without having to read the text so they can be avoided. I guess if by some chance his posts become worth reading, I wouldnt know…so please someone let me know if that happens. Also, someone please tell me if Ski yoghurt is edible after they ‘improved’ it, turning it into some kind of gloop.
I checked SeanT on Amazon but the book listed doesnt seem to be something I’d pick up - but I always keep an open mind…
110 “Meanwhile, China massacres 100 demonstrators. Comment from the usual leftie suspects here - zero. Now if it had been Israel…
This via Theo, an Israeli rescues a child from a lion and the BBC & Guardian report it as “Jew attacks African and steals his lunch”
123, that’s got me seething.
How in the name of Lucifer’s balls can you possibly promote equality through bigotry?!
As a white man why the hell should I be denied a job because I don’t have breasts or enough melanin in my skin? It’s a complete disgrace!
Further, the university applicants point is just plain wrong. More women than men now attend university. Still, don’t let facts get in the way of anti-men sexism, will you, Harriet?
123 Is HH a mole for the BNP? That idea would be a open goal to them.
128. The problem is that they put themselves in an almost identical line to the government, the only difference being in aspiration. I may have an aspiration to give more money to charity but if i only have a fiver to my name, what difference does it make?
The same applies on broader social policy. Cameron’s proposed tinkering of sure start and maternity leave could easily have been announced by a labour government.
So while the trend in polls is going towards the Tories, for the life of me I can’t really see what difference a Tory government would make.
116: How would Labour MPs react to a series of bad polls? seanT asks. With the same steadiness that we’re reacting now - have you noticed me panicking? People who stayed loyal through the Iraq war and the fuel dispute aren’t going to have the vapours over this either.
I think that Sean Fear is correct that attitudes to the economic position is a lot to do with it - people have been voting Labour because we’ve delivered generally good times and they currently think the outlook is bleak. For that to change they need to feel either that it’s improving, or that the Tories will be worse at handling it - either of which is perfectly possible, but we’ll see.
116- seanT- Major made the best fist of a terrible hand;
Brown has made a terrible fist of a good hand;
am thinking back to last Autumn- good press, united party, weak and divided opposition (remember Tony Lit!), post Blair honeymoon.
Brown’s incompetent, calculating, graceless, leadership blew his hand in a matter of days, and he hasn’t got the skills to recoup things.
122
Because of the scale of the mess.
123. Oh please let them bring in that law. Please God. Please. A law so PC and insane would surely be the end of multiculti race-obsessed feminazi leftism.
I can just picture the scene. An interview room in a large corporation.
“You gotta give me the job coz I is black.”.
“Uh…. But you have white skin, freckles, red hair and you like hurling.”
“Yes, but I feels black. Wanna argue about it, fascist? How can you prove I isn’t black? Measure the thickness of my lips?”
“Er, no. No that’s fine. You got the job.”
130. Very nice of you to say so. Though I myself have a soft spot for JackW, even if he is occasionally a peabrain.
If you don’t like the Sean Thomas books on amazon, watch out for my thriller
The Genesis Secret
by
Tom Knox
Ta-da! It will be on the shelves next March/April, from HarperCollins. I’ll keep everyone posted, of that you can be sure…
132 Read Nick Cohen’s piece, which demonstrates the idiocy of such a policy, and contains the excellent quote “the orthodoxy is that it’s right to discriminate in favour of an Indian steel magnate’s daughter at the expense of the son of a white single mother and feel proud of yourself while you do it.”
133 Is HH a mole for the BNP?
M.Thatcher destroyed the NF and BM with the introduction of Immigration Controls and the Nationality Act…
Someone said “The Tories Stole NF/BM clothes”. Some may say “Labour gives BNP clothes”
Deciding which is preferable depends on your relationship with logic.