Is Labour’s problem about communication and inspiration?
March 17th, 2008
Why the poll slump when the budget measures were popular?
A day on from the dramatic polling news in the Sunday newspapers there’s a must read article in the Independent today by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and one of the UK’s leading psephologists. In it he attempts to explain how the fact many of the measures in last week’s budget proved popular squares with Labour’s downward poll movement.
One of the surveys, from YouGov had Labour on 27% trailing 16% behind the Conservatives. The second, from ICM, reported a Labour deficit of 9% compared with just 3% in the last survey from the pollster a fortnight earlier.
On YouGov John writes: “…On its own one such poll could be dismissed as a “rogue”. Statistical theory tells us that even a well-conducted poll will under- or overestimate a party’s true standing by more than three points one time in 20. Just occasionally the error will be even bigger. Perhaps, it is YouGov’s misfortune to have suffered such a fate.
It is this possibility that makes the second poll, conducted by ICM, so important. This shows a much smaller Tory lead – nine points. Nevertheless, that is still six points up on ICM’s previous poll. YouGov may have exaggerated Labour’s loss of support, but the chances are very low indeed that two polls would show a decisive drop in Labour support if the tide of public opinion had not turned against the party at all.
Ironically, many of the individual measures in the Budget appear to be relatively popular… Meanwhile nearly half think that Mr Darling is not up his job. Mr Darling’s problem may be an inability to lift morale.”
I think that last point goes to the heart of the issue. It was not the measures themselves but the messenger or at least the way the message came out.
For as has been observed here before one of the real weaknesses of Brown’s ministerial line-up is the ability to communicate. This was a quality where Tony Blair excelled and this was reflected in his choice of ministers. The same does not apply to Gordon Brown.
To win elections you have to be good at the “communication thing” and in David Cameron they have an opponent who is formidable in this area while the Lib Dems have Vince Cable. There is time for Labour to get this right but it might mean a big cabinet shake-up and I am not sure whether Gordon is ready for that.
General Election betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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It doesn’t matter what they do, Mike, they are presiding over an economic mess, one that could easily grow to biblical proportions. Pbc’ers are able to and some do, but most of the electorate is unable to understand the economics of all of this, and will accept that it is all down to the US sub-prime crisis. It is and it isn’t. Sooner or later a greater understanding will come. The UK has been spending far more than it has been earning for many years. Generally-speaking, its inhabitants have been spending far more than it has been earning for many years. It was always going to be crunch time, it was just a question of when.
The planet is finite. With an ever-increasing population, the concept of ever-increasing consumption is ridiculous. Yet the western economic paradigm is built upon such a concept.
And so the idea that there will be a General Election before the end of term is ridiculous. The truth will out. And come 2010, so too will be Labour.
The pre-requisite for a big cabinet shake-up is that there is sufficient talent available to fill the individual posts.
There isn’t, so there won’t be.
It’s simple - Labour governments ALWAYS screw up the public finances because they ALWAYS spend too much money.
Ministers have no concept of a balance sheet because none of them have ever run a business, or even held executive responsibility within one. All their lives, most Labour MPs have been the people spending the money rather than the ones making it. For these guys, there are always deserving causes and pet projects to blow more dosh on. The money will come from somewhere. Providing it is someone else’s job.
Instead of banging on about how out-of-touch the Tories are, Labour should address the astonishing under-representation of business and industry in its own ranks. Have a look at the careers of Labour MPs - lecturers, community workers, librarians, barristers, white collar trade union officials, researchers, computer programmers, arts administrators, nurses, journalists, etc - all worthwhile activities but none of them providing experience in bottom line financial responsibility.
Sorry, that should be ‘has’ not ‘have’.
Mike I also think there’s this peculiar trait of people ’saying’ they support certain measures e.g. an increase in tax on alcohol, but it actually, perversely, losing votes. There is this curious anomaly that we occasionally see of individual measures being both supported and yet overall losing support. I’m sure this ties-in closely with what you have mentioned in the thread about presentation.
There will be a public inquiry into Iraq, says Brown
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/there-will-be-a-public-inquiry-into-iraq-says-brown-796851.html
From the article: “However, every post-war opposition that won the next election secured 50 per cent in the polls at some point. Mr Cameron is a long way from that target.”
Is that statistic still valid, given the changes made to pollster’s methods since the 1990s?
There’s also the possibility that people support the individual measures, given the mess that the government finds itself in, but still feel the government should never have got itself into this mess in the first place.
Perhaps an inquiry into the Northern Rock fiasco as well
From The Sunday Times March 16, 2008
Danes cry foul over aid for Northern RockIain Dey
DENMARK’s biggest banks have written to the European commission to complain about the behaviour of the newly nationalised Northern Rock in the savings market…./
British bankers are increasingly concerned that Northern Rock’s government-backed status is allowing it to attract more than its fair share of the savings market. It is offering the highest rate in 11 of the 19 types of saving account monitored by the industry, according to banking sources.
A number of its products offer rates of 6.25%, a full 100 basis points higher than Bank rate.
Using taxpayers money to bail out a “moral hazard” didn’t sound kosher right from the beginning. Just another Brown attempt at covering over the cracks with miracle money. For the banks that indulged in the miracle–allow them to sink or swim on their own merits. Now Brown is using the bank to gain unfair advantage over privately owned banks. What an unholy mess it all is. If the EU commission uphold DK’s complaint, and on the face of it they have an iron clad case, what next for Gordon’s bank
Enjoy St Patrick’s day one & all, I am off to find out more about the Bear Stearns cut-price sale.
9 - St Patrick’s Day was on Saturday I think as in some quirk of canon law you cannot have a celbratory feast day during Holy Week. Other more qualified people may correct or clarify this though.
Interestingly I think we haven’t heard the last of Northern Rock especially in light of how quickly the US Bear Stearns issue has been dealt with.
On the last thread, Socrates said “There are whispers that prominent African-American preachers are going to speak out criticising Barack Obama for denouncing the words of Jeremiah Wright so harshly. Supposedly some in the Afrocentric churches feel Obama has unfairly sacrificed Wright.”
Are Wright’s views widely shared among such clergy?
7. i doubt anyone will get 50% or over for a good long time, and they dont need to either. also, i havent met a single person who thinks this budget was good, despite the article, their all either whinging about fuel or fags or booze or just in general. this ie one of those times where the poll says yes, and the people on the street say ‘bloody taxes’.
You must mix with some geeky people Cuddles. I haven’t talked to a single person who has mentioned the budget apart from the odd joke on the day itself and as none of the rises or falls have yet to show themselves I can only imagine your mates have been buried in treasury documents for the last week.
St Patrick’s Day religious celebrations were moved to Saturday, 15th March 2008 to avoid conflict with Holy Monday. However, as you would expect from the Irish, the public celebrations will carry on as normal today - which is a holiday. See:
http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=9917
13. erm, no, they just have a lower paid job (around 15k) and have already seen their taxes go up and up over the last few years, along with the utility bills, food bills etc etc. and what has reading treasury documents got to go with it, the points i mentioned were the obvious ones that every newspaper and tv station has been talking about. no wonder nobody here takes you seriously.
re 7. Certainly polling methodologies have changed over the decades - particularly in the past ten years.
The statistic that shows the scale of the challenge for Cameron is that on only one occasion since 1945 has a general election seen one party with a working majority being replaced by another with a working majority. That was in 1970. In all other cases the incoming party barely had a majority or none - 1964 and February 1974 - or the outgoing party had lost a working majority - 1951, 1979, 1997.
I don’t think the problems are a paucity of talented ministers but an absence of an Alastaire Campbell figure to try to get a grip of news management. The impression people are getting is of a directionless government heading to into troubled times. I’m sure they have at lest as much of a strategy as Blair ever had but they’re not communicating it. The last budget should have been hailed as an attack on child poverty but it didn’t come accross like that.
15. Cuddles. Last week you said you were a quarter of my age. Shouldn’t you be less rude then!
Absolutely right Mike. The two things that Brown needs to do but has so far refused to, is to strengthen his cabinet and to make them higher profile.
Purely in communication terms the strongest players are Denham, Purnell, Cooper, Straw, David Miliband and Alan Johnson. However, even with these, they are lacking somebody who can really connect with the public. It is a shame that Blunkett ruined his chances as he was one of the few that did connect in any way.
The problem is that what talent there is left is virtually invisible. Brown hogs the limelight and consequently the flak with every policy announcement. He needs to give the cabinet the freedom to build their profile even if that means a few more gaffes along the way.
As for the effect of the budget, I’m a little bit wary of taking these polls at face value. Nobody is happy when given a bill. The polling which showed the Tories could not have done better is also significant. However, more could have been done to communicate the positive sides of the budget and again this is where the cabinet were constrained from doing so.
re 13. I don’t think anybody on PB quite has a lifestyle like you Roger. Maybe JackW in his younger days?
Amazing; the 2008 budget is the first event in ages where Wodger has not had everyone he comes across from his favourite waiter in the south of France to taxi drivers in London who are gagging to tell him (and by proxy us) how inspirational/wonderful/exciting/on the ball the Labour Government is. The budget must truly have bombed
13. When does the official post-budget Roger prole poll come out? I need to know which way the taxi drivers are leaning before I adjust my betting.
The main problem with the government, and the budget, is that the tory line of calling them dithering and incompetant has struck a chord. People now see labour as being wasteful and incompetant with their money, and are gradually turning to the only credible alternative. the tories have a lot of work to do, the next election isnt in the bag by any stretch, but the government has managed to lose so much credibility that the tories do have a good shot.
19- I am very impressed that Jack W can even switch on a computer considering his age, and obvious dementia most probably caused by imbibing too many malts!
16 - Mike - I think you could argue that that 1992-1997 saw a change in working majorities. The Cons had a 21 majority didn’t they after 1992 but lost seats through bi-elections. Happily MPs don’t die as often so we have not seen this govt’s unpopularity reflected in seat numbers.
The proposed tax on plastic bags obviously isn’t having the desired effect.
The FTSE’s highest ever closing level was reached on Dec. 30, 1999, when it closed at 6,930 before the dot-com crash sent shares tumbling.
25 minutes into trading today, it’s at 5525 (79.73% of its all time high) which means we are now, officially in a bear market.
With Brown & co are we seeing the opposite to “Smithson’s Cameron rule”?
The more Brown & Co are in the media the worse their ratings get.
22-Cuddles- Osborne’s strategy to colour Brown as a ditherer and bottler was a masterclass in dismantling the opposition. This has now been coupled with an all out onslaught on their perceived strengths- the economy. Very good politics from the Tories (as much as I dislike saying it)
16
“The statistic that shows the scale of the challenge for Cameron is that on only one occasion since 1945 has a general election seen one party with a working majority being replaced by another with a working majority. That was in 1970″
Doesn’t the exceptionally low turnouts at the 2001 and 2005 elections suggest that a competitive (conservative) opposition has the potential to smash that statistic in a 2009/2010 general election?
26- sadly I think you are right. Doesn’t bode too well for an election campaign.
I think it’s fair to say that ‘inspiring’ is not a word that many people associate with the Brown/Darling axis!
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
I’ve never heard that used as a definition of a ‘bear market’. Down 20% in two months perhaps but we aren’t quite there yet.
There is an old adage about a “popular” budget on the day falling to bits within a week. The headlines of this budget, as with all the previous ones from Brown, hid the unpopular and unpleasant details. Hitting gas-guzzlers is popular but when it is found to affect 90% of all cars, and your own in particular no matter how grand, then expect a reaction against the whole process.
As far as Cabinet talent is concerned, there is (as they used to say when I worked on Teesside) a lot of “all brains and no common sense”. I believe you see it time and time again when Government makes an announcement only to show there is no practical experience behind it. We have seen recently Lord Goldsmith on an oath of allegiance by 16 (or is it 18) year olds which has sunk like a lead balloon. Until recently he was Attorney General advising on, inter alia, the legality of the Iraq War.
We used to say never allow a lawyer anywhere near a commercial decision. This Government is stuffed with lawyers who appear to suffer from a distinct lack of not only common sense but every day practical experience of making things happen.
27. they were helped by vince cable’s mr bean line.
Whenever a govt becomes tired and stale, its supporters think that its unpopularity is because it is ‘no longer getting its message across’. “We need an Alistair Cambell” becomes the cry.
GB was never as financially astute as he made many believe. He was over-estimated as chancellor, but substantially under-estimated as a politician. He was able to pursuade huge numbers of people that he was good at handling public finances, when he was actually pretty poor. A fine politician indeed.
As PM, GB has also proved be a poor at man-management. That needn’t matter either, but when you look at who surrounds himself with….
13
I am a member of a number of motoring forums, the most serious of which is HonestJohn from the Daily Telegraph. There was a reasoned and civilsed discussion of the car tax changes.
What annoyed and infuriated most people was th way the tax rises were presented: in a way to confuse.. and the retrospective element of it. When readers realised that the so called “Green Taxes” were nothing of the sort, just revenue raising, the reaction was of anger at a (failed) attept to disguise them.
People are not stooopid and eventually taxation becomes too much. Expecially when income is squeezed.
I recall Healey saying “Tax the rich till the pips squeek”.
This government taxes everyone and the pips are squeeking:-(
I do not believe that the recent Tory surge in the polls was caused by the Budget. It usually takes weeks or months for an event to percolate through the public’s collective consciousness and affect their voting.
We would do better to look at events 2-3 weeks ago. I suggest that the EU debate is the cause. Very few people care about the EU Treaty, but they do care about trust etc.
Maybe Cameron et al were right all along that the lack of a referendum would hurt Labour after all.
Tyson. You’re going native! Brown has made several obvious mistakes recently. To credit Osborne with having any part in Brown’s present difficulties is being wildly flattering to him.
While there may be something in Mike’s thesis, I also think that the pattern of admiring a budget while thinking it bad for oneself is well-established, and in this case the leap in booze and car taxes strikes people more forcibly than, say, a change in personal allowances. Anthony Wells had already pointed out that the Times polling details didn’t show much enthusiasm for the Budget even while people admired important aspects of it.
The underlying problem is I think the feeling that the economy is in trouble, and the Budget was pretty explicitly presented as doing a good job in difficult circs. People give the government of the day credit or blame for the economy, whether it’s fair or not. If and when that perception improves (not much point in arguing the probabilities here as it’s not entirely in Britain’s power to influence), our ratings will improve.
31: bear market Definition:
A prolonged period in which investment prices fall, accompanied by widespread pessimism. If the period of falling stock prices is short and immediately follows a period of rising stock prices, it is instead called a correction.
Bear markets usually occur when the economy is in a recession and unemployment is high, or when inflation is rising quickly. The most famous bear market in U.S. history was the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The term “bear” has been used in a financial context since at least the early 18th century. While its origins are unclear, the term may have originated from traders who sold bear skins with the expectations that prices would fall in the future.
Alliance & Leicester stock down 9%, this is really getting quite serious.
O/T: I’m always wary of people selling books, but this is quite interesting stuff for those of us who were following the NI peace process clsoely:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/17/northernireland.peaceprocess1
i am sure someone has already looked at the polling in scotland. it appears to me that the situation for Labour is going from bad to worse. The budget has been a failure, and Labour is fighting two different partys with two differnet ideologies, thus they can not win teh argument without upsetting one group.
38 - I wouldn’t cling to that raft too strongly Nick, the economy improved markedly up to 1997 and the Conservative poll ratings barely flickered in that period. I think that the main point of the thread is valid that communication skills when absent are a problem, I think though that Labour’s problem might be that the mass of the people just aren’t listening to them anymore. If that is the case then all the communication skills in the world won’t help.
42
What is the SNP’s ideology? I had thought they were an ‘old Labour’ clone, but I’ve been told this is not the case.
38 The perception is that Labour lied over many things, particularly Iraq and now the economy.
Once the perception has set in that you’re lying, it doesn’t really matter how silver-tongued the liars are.
40. HBOS down 10%, Bradford and Bingley down 7%…
46, just had a quick glance at the business bit on the BBC:
FTSE 100
5499.6down
-132.10
Dax
6225.6down
-226.29
Cac 40
4466.8down
-125.40
Dow Jones
11951.1down
-194.65
Doesn’t look very rosy:(
46 - On a brighter note, the largest print works in the world has opened just down the road from me.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7299941.stm
37 Roger, look back to September, when the Tories were staring defeat down the barrels of a gun.
Whatever you feel about Cameron & Osborne, they did turn the situation around in an astonishing manner, starting with the IHT snare.
Like in a football match, the Tories were badly behind, but started to put their opponents under pressure, and their opponents made mistakes. The Tories deserve the credit.
49. england v wales from this six nations perhaps
40. All my thriller advance money is Alliance Leicester! What’s ‘appenin?
37. Roger, as I pointed out on here the other day, and as Gqynfa alludes,it is arguably George Osborne who can take most credit for the slow-mo Labour trainwreck since the non-election.
To go over history one more time.
George Osborne came up with the Abolition of IHT wheeze. This idea united and enthused the Tory party on day one of their crucial conference - the conference where they were meant to fall apart; the idea also proved hugely popular in the country, which imnmediately swang the polls to the Tories, just as Brown was about to announce an election.
Then Brown bottled the election, and not only did he bottle it, he lied throuh his teeth, on national TV, when asked why - “the polls had no effect on my decision”.
Ever since then, a big fat Yellow Post-It Note saying Liar and Ditherer has been stuck on Gordon Brown’s back, and he hasn’t been able to get rid of it.
Nor will he, I suspect.
In his panic to counter Osborne’s proposals, Brown also brought in badly thought-through counter-proposals - CGT, nondoms - which have now seriously and permanently damaged Labour’s standing with business.
And all this damage done by that supposed upperclass nonentity George Gideon Osborne.
Many of us underestimated Osborne at first; most of us have realised this is foolish. To continue to do so, as you do, is arguably retarded.
HBOS down 11.5% but just off the low of the day.
Lowest it’s been for five years.
51
Get your money out and buy gold.
52. Barclays and RBS also down by similar amounts… Is it too early to call it Black Monday?
38
admire the budget….
There wasn’t a single thing to “admire” in it. It was just a statement of Labour’s utter failure to control public spending(whilst blaming anyone and everything else).
Personally, I think the reason for the polls is the deceit in not mentioning things in the budget that were exposed afterwards , such as the increases in car tax. Mr/Mrs Miss Nissan Micra is not going to be too happy seeing £40 stuck on their road tax.
Joe Public might not be talking about it, but inwardly I suspect he is seething about it.
The pound is sinking like a stone against all currencies other than the failing dollar. Better get fiddling those inflation figures again Mr Brown.
US future looking very poor too. Bloodbath.
Plunge protection team on standby?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets
51 This crisis in the states and elswewhere is about the unwinding of a massive property bubble. Bear Stearns were one the biggest players in the wholesale mortgage markets, Northern Rock the most aggressive mortgage provider. default rates on US mortgages are rising rapidly and the same will happen here. avoid anything to do with the property market and you will be fine.
future=futures
How can a budget be ‘popular’ if most respondents have not had enough time to sit down and consider how the changes in tax hit them? Add on the rises in food and utility prices and belt tightening is on the way.
Looks like a Bear Sterns market, heading southwards at great speed taking reputations for mastering the universe with it.
Brown’s record of economic competence is diminished by the hour as the bills for PFI come in, as firms struggle with the complexities of his overly complex tax system.
Government of all the talents when was that last trotted out? It is a bunch of payroll/public sector, political researches who couldn’t set up a whelk stall with a control freak in charge. They cannot administer the country let alone form coherent policies.
One pound sterling = one Euro not far off. No hols in Euroland for me this year.
Well done for selling our gold reserves McClownshoes. 1000usd per oz.
56
Does that have to raise inflation? Commodities are traded in USD, and lower GBP/EUR exchange rate should surely improve UK>EU exports.
58 - The problem being that you can’t avoid the US property market as the mortgage market was parcelled up and sold on in bits round the world. So the losses are crystallising all over the shop.
Mike at 16
True - but some of that is the circumstances that the election was held in - the incumbent government having lost its majority in 79 and 97 was net a necessary prerequisite for the change in Government. Thatcher could have won a majority of about 20 or so (which should be a working majority for an incoming Government even if Sunny Jim had had a majority of up to 20 or so when the election was called (of course, the loss of the no-confidence vote wouldn’t have happened, but the point is that the swing was sufficient regardless).
And of course in 1997, Blair would have gained a working majority even if he’d started from the position that Foot had left Labour in.
So it’s true and worth bearing in mind - but you could probably add those two to the “would have been a change over from majority to working majority if the last Government hadn’t mislaid its majority” column.
Nick P at 38,
The danger for Darling (and the issue that seems to be gaining traction) is that the voters seem to be blaming Labour for those actual circumstances in the first place. It seems to be a key plank in the Osborne/Cameron strategy (and it’s spot on - unlike the last GE when the Tories focussed on areas where they were perceived as strong, they’re this time going after Labour in areas where Labour is seen as strong. This is crucial for them to win a changeover and one of the key winning strategies of New Labour in the 93 to 97 timeline.
63. I don’t think the UK property market will fare any better this year. In fact we had an even bigger bubble than they did so the crash will probably be worse.
Its not that many weeks until we get an idea of how parts of the country really feels. If Boris Johnson wins the Mayoral election you get a narrative along the lines of “Tories win a serious election for first time in 11 years.”
If Ken does win it will be “Cameron cannot make break through.” For success or failure will be laid at Camerons door.
61 - If you are coming to Crete, you will now find petrol costing over one pound a litre, not so much because of Euroinflation as because of the near 20% fall in the exchange rate in just a few short weeks.
I am quite happy for Roger to dismiss Osbourne as a blithering idiot - underestimating your enemy is a sure path to failure.
re 13. “I don’t think anybody on PB quite has a lifestyle like you Roger. Maybe JackW in his younger days?”
Life was hell !!!
http://www.loversguide.com/uploads/RTEmagicC_4e9841783f.jpg.jpg
Any Brits going taking holidays abroad this year are going to come face-to-face with the strength and stability of Labour’s management of the UK economy. I can only recommend prudence.
If there are any other traders out there, I am short the mortgage banks and long the generals like LLOY - so far, so good. Buying gold and energy puts too.
All the stuff about Iraq and referendums, may have some bearing, but its the ‘Economy stupid’
People are worried, and when they worry, they take it out on the government. If they are still worried by the time of the next GE, then the government will not be returned, its simple really!
If the government really, really wants a fourth term, (And the will to win, must decline the longer you are in) then its going to have to come up with something very startling.
As a firm believer in, ‘Out of chaos comes creativity’. Mr Brown should remember the greatest lines in Cinema History.
Harry Lime: ‘In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leanardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love; they had five hundred years of democracy and peace-and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock!’
Well we don’t have to go that far,(although it would be fun) but why not shake things up a bit, what have you got too lose? an election! So what! Labour have won three, how many more do you need to win?
71. That doesn’t sound too different from the strategy that got Peloton into trouble. I think it’s still too early to go long on any bank stocks.
72. have you ever heard of this chap named gordon brown, thats slightly alien to his way of thinking.
Meanwhile …. the “Daily Telegraph” is decidedly lukewarm over the boy Osbournes tax policies :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/17/ntory117.xml
73
Matt, it’s a pair, one long one short. I usually trade pairs, the best to date was long Google and short yahoo!
I think oil will burst soon.
75. stuff the telegraph, and especially stuff simon heffer (with some kind of acid, yeah, that would do it, bwahahahah). they want the tories to be old school tax cutting union hating conservatives, and they rate JOHN EFFING REDWOOD.
62 It might improve UK exports (what’s left of them) but a weaker pound will import growing inflation and, as the widening trade gap shows, our imports are considerably higher than our exports.
The perfect storm appears to be imminent and profligate, debtor nations like the US and UK are going to be the biggest losers.
Brown’s totaly undeserved reputation for economic competence will soon be in shreds though, no doubt, he will try to pin the blame on “global turbulence” and the hapless fall-guy Darling.
Brown has not got the Balls to do anything radical.
I think you’re right Mike.
Nevermind the Telegraph, I know Mr Kavanagh is no longer political editor but surely this tells us who the Sun will be backing next time
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kavanagh/article686412.ece
Gordo should be worried about the next milestone €1=£1 - coming soon..
Agree communications are poor, but they are part of a wider strategy which is clearly failing.
Brown has squandered the possibility of a new labour re-boot from blair. A moderate, modernity orientated social democratic government is a strong electoral card. But instead we’ve had the “brown conservatives”, moving money away from the child poverty pledge in favour of adopting tory tax cuts for the well off (IHT). We’ve had appeals for the country to turn into some tinpot east european state through more army uniforms on the street, stuck to id cards, digby jones, Blair style spinning like the visit to iraq, nonsense about everyone swearing allegiance to the queen. Point is, taken altogether is all the possible positives (education and health care would be in grave peril if the tories get near power) get ignored in favour of mini-me toryisms and questions on competence.
Cameron is a dismal, shallow spinner and when brown took over, cameron had a very weak hand to play. Whoever came up with Brown’s strategy, I tip my hat, what an achievement ;-(
And I speak as a moderate, always have been.
74/79
Not just him anyone!
There is no great enthusiasm for any political party at the moment, the only reason why the Tories have gone up in the polls, is because they are seen as the only viable alternative. If there was someone else they would be soaring away.
81. cameron does have a mr nasty side, he just hasnt had to use it yet.
81. cameron does have a mr nasty side, he just hasnt had to use it yet.
84 I agree
78/56
You say the pound is stable against the USD, and falling against the EUR. Surely importers will just look to shift to non-EU suppliers?
True. but that comes back to one of things that people claim labour is not doing enough off currently - spinning.
Meanwhile II …. The “Independent” indicates that the super delegate mood music is trilling in Obama’a direction :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/obamas-lead-impresses-superdelegates-796799.html
84 There seems to be a great deal more enthusiasm for the Tories than for Labour as recent polls clearly indicate but you stick to your fantasy of “they’re all as bad as each each” if it makes you feel better.
90
I posted the following link on the previous thread, but it seems on point:
Real Clear Politics article, “Time to buy Hilary Clinton”.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/time_to_buy_hillary_clinton.html
3. You mention Labour barristers but there are a far more lawyers on the Tory benches than there are on Labour’s side. I agree that more MPs in general should have business experience but I’m not sure if the Tories are much better.
Dave Cameron, for example did a spot of PR work but otherwise he’s been a career politician. Osborne inherited Daddy’s wallpaper business, but does that make him a financial expert?
How many Tory MPs and frontbenchers have started up their own companies?
81 noisy. The “Sun” will endorse who Murdoch tells them to. End off.
88 Easier said than done! BTW The pound is also showing signs of weakness against the unloved and failing dollar just not as much though as it is showing against other currencies. Watch the show for yourself here: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/
91
If its a fantasy, then I share it with about 99% of the population.
93
Rob Wilson for one, the ever golden Mr Redwood. But your point is a fair one.
96. randomn made up stat alert!
98, oh. I thought you were referring to the rate of inflation at first.
93 So what! The skids are now firmly under Labour and they will continue to slide as Brown’s over-stuffed, debt-fuelled chickens come home to roost.
91 I very much doubt that you speak for 99% of the population, Coldstone!
84: The ’soaring away in the polls’ phenomenon was the result of silly polling in the 1990s which gave Labour figures that were nowhere near accurate.
10 - Yes, although this one is rather unusual. Saints days that fall in Holy Week are usually transferred to the next available day - in this case April 1st (I think). However the Catholic Church in Ireland petitioned Rome to move it backwards to Saturday 15th, so as to coincide with the ‘civil’ celebrations (i.e. they knew the breweries and pubs couldn’t cope with shifting it too far from the 17th…)
93 My impression is that very few MPs have any real understanding of business, although there are slightly more who do on the Conservative benches than on the Labour benches.
101
Ok 99.9%
Politicians of all parties are held in sheer contempt. Political parties themselves, are redundant organisations. No one joins them, no ones interested in them, in their present form they’ve had their day. A political parties are just homes for mindless arse licking sycophants.
72 - “People are worried, and when they worry, they take it out on the government. If they are still worried by the time of the next GE, then the government will not be returned, its simple really!”
People are very worried, but by the time of the election they’ll be more than just worried - they’ll be out of a job, reposessed and bankrupt. But we’ll be using far fewer plastic bags, so that’s alright then.
Meanwhile III …. Tim Reid in the “Times” says that the continuing Democrat rivalry is handing a significant rivalry to McCain :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3564415.ece
92) “Time To Buy Hillary”
Its a very poor article reminiscent of a lot of most of the daft media articles “Hillary is still in it”. This time it looks like the author has bought some Hillary on intrade and is trying to talk up his position. I particularly dispute
“Market meltdown is bad for Obama”
- the market got this way under a republican administration right? Lack of regulation of the credit and mortgage markets - standard free-market stuff.
“Puerto Rico caucus - primary switch “unoticed”.
-Well we all noticed it here. Many of us were prepared for a block vote for Clinton in PR.
The skids really are under new Labour, now LabourHome are claiming the BBC is biased towards the Conservatives.You couldnt make it up.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
106
Actually the last Conservative government put me out of a job!
105: A politician, be it your local MP or councillor, can often be well respected while politicians as a class aren’t.
Your plague on all your houses meme fails when one party is substantially and consistently ahead in the polls.
108. Exactly - more flat earth HC tosh.
Next stop - HC wins Penn by a whisker and she’s the “comeback kid part 999 “. Yawn.
Arithmetic will dawn on the blind soon enough.
Meanwhile IV …. a useful guide to the upcoming Senate races :
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
110 - They clearly knew what they were up to. So what?
111 Funny you should mention local councilors.
Down my way the successful candidate usually wins with the support of less than 15% of those entitled to vote. And most of that is the tribal, unthinking vote.
Perhaps the true position of the public lies somewhere between contempt and indifference.
81
I find it funny that the Sun is criticing Cameron for being soft on tax at teh same time as the Lib Dems criticse him for being .. well kindof heir ofBlair.
I am 100% certain Cameron when elected will take on some very stringent cost cutting measures… but as Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas and Labour are doing their best to ensure their election (the Conservatives that is).. why announce them?
The Conservatives were unelectable 4 years ago. Labour were in the ascendant.
Look at it now.
111
Only ‘cos there’s no alternative, its a vote against, not for!
Individual councillors, certain MP’s may garner some respect, but not the system as a whole. When it comes to local government, the vast majority of people don’t think it should be party political based.
It is inevitable that Labour will slip under Gordon Brown’s leadership. He comes over as boring and presides over the most boring cabinet I can recall. It is if Ministers such as Alan Johnson have been silenced. It all reflects on the leader - dull, calvanistic, boring, stifling criticism, holds grudges etc etc. He is hogging the limelight over policy announcements instead of permitting his ministers to do this. We continue to read about his flawed character - the latest serialisation of the book by Jonathan Powell points up that Gordon Brown refused to acknowledge him over ten years! This is astonishing! An obvious inability to be courteous to those whom he perceived to be blocking his career ambitions rather than treating someone who was working for the country as a human being. Former Ministers have indicated similar problems and this is again documented. His political cleverness is also a weakness. For example, delaying policy on tax changes whilst Chancellor to minimise the impact. Those on low incomes who are not entitled to supplements will be heavily penalised when the 10% tax rate is removed in a few weeks time. He also seems unable to make a decision as all we have are reviews. Dull! Dull! Dull!
Despite his bringing in an army of able back room staff to improve his communication etc, he lacks style and in my opinion has no charisma. I personally want those traits from a PM. It is GB who is losing votes for the Labour Party and most certainly losing women’s votes! I hope those who sought to remove Tony Blair suffer at the next election.
117 - In many respects local politics is party based in name only. Most councillors would fit into most parties quite comfortably. There are very few explicitly partisan figures on local councils.
104. I think we can agree, then, that an insufficient understanding of business is something that is a problem in Parliament generally, but not specifically for Labour. It’s important to explode this myth because it underlies the idea that Labour can never run a economy successfully.
I still reckon that ex-solicitor Darling played a difficult hand quite well in his budget, although I have heard endless criticisms on the airwaves from ex-barristers Howe and Clark.
The problem for Darling and all European finance ministers is the economic chaos in the USA caused by Bush’s mad economic policies. Larry Elliot reckons the next depression could be The Big One, see
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/17/economics.useconomy
110 - That just proves my point - that was more than a decade ago and yet it still, understandably, makes you angry. When it starts happening again soon (and the Budget report forecasts rising unemployment), people will get just as angry with the current government.
38. Mr. Palmer - if your Dear Leader hadn’t run up such a large budget deficit in the excellent economic conditions of the last several years, Britain would be in a much stronger position to shield itself from the global economic downturn.
Labour’s management of the public finances has been utterly irresponsible and when the government has to tighten fiscal policy even further over the next year in response to collapsing revenues, the pain this will inflict on the voters will be intense. Time to start looking for a new career.
108 - “Puerto Rico caucus - primary switch “unoticed”.
-Well we all noticed it here. Many of us were prepared for a block vote for Clinton in PR.
Exactly, the switch to the primary in PR is a distinct negative for Clinton. If things were run there as they have been in previous years, the caucus would have been arranged so that every delegate just happened to go her way and it would have made a reasonable dent in Obama’s lead. As it is, she’ll probably win the primary but it’ll give her, what, 10-15 more delegates than Obama gets?
A very interesting and non-partisan article today about the psychology of public sector spending.
It concludes with this but the preceding explanation is fascinating from an occupational psychologist.
“Cumulative public spending since 1997 stands at £4,500 billion - double the total for the preceding 10 years.
How much of this is wasted? The public sector employs 800,000 more people than in 1997, many of them engaged in developing specifications, writing guidance, drawing up standards, devising targets, enforcing inspections - all in the name of a reform programme that does not work properly.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/03/17/do1704.xml
119
So why bother? Why not all stand as independents, issuing manifestos, then voters can choose who they like the look/sound of rather than on party.
You’ve only got to read today’s Tory press, to see the conflict that will tear Cameron’s government apart, even before it gets into power, tax!
There is noway that the right are going to sit around for four, (Or is it seven) years waiting for tax cuts.
Hmmmm… Labour are playing a high risk game, but maybe something clever is going on here.
125 - Local parties are basically an effort minimiser. If everyone stood as an independent then they would have to put all the effort at winning in themselves. Parties spread the load at a local level, there really isn’t a lot to choose between them, it is why local level defections are almost irrelevant.
126. like what?
126
Yes, explain please.
83- Labour Humanist- very good post.
Someone here said that it all started going wrong for Gordon with the Maggie T visit.
For some reason Gordon veered away from pursuing ideological politics to this very pale imitation of Blair’s spin, surrounded by a group of Brown nosing, careerist, acolytes.
Every week another silly idea, with Brown’s calculating little fingerprints placed all over them.
Three terms of Labour government is going to fizzle out with a whimper with even hard core lefties like my good self not particularly bothered. Not like 1992.
118. All this stuff about “whyever did they get rid of Blair?” - Mike does it too - ignores one thing. Iraq.
Blair took us into a disastrous and illegal war, which we then lost, having killed half a million people in the process.
Blair had to go, just had to - because of that. And he knew it. If he’d have stayed the Iraq poison would have spread to the rest of the party. In fact I think it will spread, to an extent anyway - its already undermined Labour’s moral selfconfidence to an almost terminal degree.
Put it another way: Labour can’t quite face what they did in Iraq, hence Brown’s ditherings over an inquiry - “er, we will have one, but, please God, not yet, not yet”.
Pitiful.
So Blair had to go. The big mistake was in appointing Brown without a contest; underlying this was the failure to groom alternative successors, to the painfully inadequate Gordo. Another serious howler.
Now they must deal with the consequences.
A long period in opposition will do Labour good. Cleanse them of the moral stink of Iraq. Start over with fresh ideas and new leaders.
[124] - It would appear then that it has been the peculiar Blairite obsession with reform for reforms sake that lies at the heart of the waste, not necessarily spending itself. That much of this reform was conducted out of a desire to demonstrate that money would not be wasted shows that politics continues to satirise itself.
Unfortunately, from my political perspective, I believe that this is helping to discredit spending as a whole, and not simply the reform mania.
120 Basically, I think that most MPs see business as a cash cow that exists to fulfill the government’s social objectives.
WRT current economic problems, they certainly can’t all be blamed on the USA. Socrates pointed out yesterday that the USA’s budget deficit is actually lower than our own, as a proportion of GDP.
127
‘They would have to put in all the effort of winning in themselves’ Well we couldn’t have that could we, poor ‘ol things.
If someone put in, ‘all of the effort themselves’ they f**king well deserve to win!!
I can see now where I went wrong in my marathon running, I didn’t get someone else to do 25miles ,with me popping up to do the last 1.2.
115/117: You probably have a closer relationship to your counciller than your MP you tend to vote for the person not the party.
93. Alan Duncan, Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps from the shadow cabinet. 3 more than Labour.
Perhaps it is simply that while the public accept, given the global and national economic context, the measures introduced in the budget, they are also now blaming the government for this context.
134 - That isn’t the point I’m trying to make, the reason parties exist anywhere is that people club together to acheive a bigger effect than acting in isolation. In local politics the effect of parties is maginified in this regard and they act more as a diffuser of workload. Most individuals would struggle to finance an election, or to get round a 3000 elector ward in 3 weeks. Parties mitigate that need and spread that effort.
137. the government took the plaudits during the good times, they cant now blame the downturn on the global economy without admitting it was that which funded the good times as well.
138
There are lots of Independents in local government, I actually have worked for two, one obviously a leftie, the other obviously a Tory. Both felt they didn’t want to have a party label. I also think they probably wouldn’t have been elected if they had stood under their real colours. Both got in ‘cos they were, well thought of.
139 The big question will be if the UK manages to avoid following the US into recession for an unprecedented second time.
140 - I am not dissing the value of independents in the system just seeking to explain why Party’s are in the system.
Dave B “lower GBP/EUR exchange rate should surely improve UK>EU exports.”
A myth which some economists and politicians still deploy with no evidence of any long term truth.
You might ask yourself what exactly are these exports going to be? Financial services in the midst of a financial whirlwind, Japanese cars assembled here to compete with European over production? Our manufacturing base is eroded massively. Options for growth a consequently limited.
Government spending has hidden the fact that much of the economic growth has been through public services and those that service them and consumers using money borrowed from one lot of foreigners to buy goods sold by other foreigners. Productivity is lagging and innovation rather sad.
And then there is the little problem of exporting to a zone that is in increasing economic difficulties itself. I can’t see EU exports booming when they cost so much. ANd if they can’t export they too will have to tighten their belts. That might be made worse as the mad rise in the Euro might cut the tourists from the UK in the zone, but not until next year. And anyway they will simply then move to other cheaper destinations and the foreign exchange cost will remain steady but different.
141: Like most of Gordon’s spin that wouldn’t be ‘unprecedented’ or something the Government did.
O/T - ConHome has a poll with a Boris lead of 12%!!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/03/boris-now-12-ah.html
126. ‘Labour’ & ‘clever’…no chance
145
Good spot. Bojo landslide a comin.
Good news, although I still find it most unlikely that he and Livingstone will take 86% between them. That is down simply to name recognition.
I think my point about lack of business experience is borne out by the Conservatives’ proposal for “league tables” of socially responsible companies, and linking directors’ bonuses to doing things the government wants.
Bojo 1.76 on betfair.
Still 1.83 on Coral.
is the poll re Boris ahead by 12 % justt another one of the evening standards surveys of chosen people on a panel or a proper poll ?
150
Read it for yourself, it says YouGov but not on ES website yet, prob. after 3pm
133. I wish I could feel as sanguine as you about the American economy. The dollar and property prices are falling like a stone and more bank collapses could be on the way.
It will be interesting to hear the American candidates’ pronouncements on the U.S. economy, it will surely crowd out all the other issues soon.
Interestingly I am just reading the section in Obama’s autobiog. about American capitalism, the 30’s recession and the New Deal. I don’t agree with some of his conclusions but what an erudite and well-informed guy he is - I am impressed.
The killer line in the Kavanagh article in the Sun is not partisan, and must be this:
“WHAT’S the difference between the £20,000 John Lewis shopping list for MPs and the “special shops” once set aside for Soviet party hacks in Russia? “
152. You think he wrote it? buffoon.
141 In 12 months we willknow-it is perfectly plausible,annual growth,measurable from quarter to quarter will slow to c.1.75% this autumn,and by the second quarter of next year (O.K,April 2009 is 13 months away for the benefit of pendants:wink:) growth will be back to c.2.25- 2.5% -next March’s budget is utterly unpredictable from this distance-things may be horrible-or there may just be a chink of light,room for the odd niceitie,a few howl