Tories take 13% lead in new ICM poll
March 17th, 2008
The good news for the Tories - Part 3
After all the discussions over whether the weekend YouGov poll with the 16% lead was an outlier there’s more confirmation this evening that there has been a marked shift to Cameron’s party.
The March ICM poll for the Guardian, just out gives the following shares with changes on the survey that appeared yesterday - CON 42% (+2): LAB 29% (-2): LD 21% (+1)
The poll was carried out over the weekend and according to the paper takes the Conservative to levels it has not since since 1987.
On these voting shares the Tories could look forward to a Commons majority of 60 plus.
Over the past few days there has been a lot of coverage for the party and Cameron with the Spring Conference and his having the TV cameras in his home.
This underlines the point I often make - there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage Cameron gets and his party’s ratings.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Other polls looking a little less rogueish now. Wonder what Com Res will have us at!!
Central proabilistic forecast (ICM)
Con 339
Lab 216
LD 51
Nats 23 (assumes SNP +15%, a bit higher than my previous estimates)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Tory majority of 33
6-poll moving average
Con 309
Lab 256
LD 44
Nats 20
Oth 3
NI 13
It does appear now that the Tories have had a boost. It’s a bit hard to say by how much, but it looks as if they are now 10%+ ahead of Labour. It may be more. Only the next poll (as ever) will answer that question!
Interesting, but still not unrecoverable for Labour.
I doubt that Labour can recover from these kind of numbers. Once you allow for better polling I think we are pretty well into “get them out” territory as witnessed in previous decades.
Hung parliament still favourite but not by much.
1. Public opinion has moved decively against Labour after they have raped the English Taxpayer in the last 10 years.
These polls look to have moved against Labours latest trick budget.
Labour have turned Britain into a banana republic.
A prison for law abiding subjects and a paradise for immigrants, corrupt politicians and violent criminals that police find too difficult to confront.
Labour is facing a wipeout.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40.4% .. Lab 31.4% .. LibDem 17.8% .. Others 10.4%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 316 seats .. Lab 258 .. LibDem 46 .. Others 30.
Con 10 seats short of a majority.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
Obviously good for Tories, but I agree it’s not unrecoverable, and complacency is a serious obstacle they must contend with.
However, if it stays like this for some time the hung Parliament scenario becomes less and less likely. Brown’s going to have to do something to recover his position.
3. I bet the member for Broxtowe does not see much outside help at the next election. I should imagine Labour are shifting resources to defend seats 260 to 300 and have been likely to have being doing so for sometime. It must be difficult for someone like Nick seeing less able MP’s being backed whilst he is left to whither.
3 Hung parliament still favourite but not by much.
Hung parliament is 7/4. How could that possibly be realistic? Do the bookies really think Labour can recover?
Should be Con +2, Mike, not that I like that style of comparison..
Darn it. I was just about to post this poll. You’re fast!
Bizarre that all the cash for peerages bad news and storm that there was end of last year didnt shift things much, then suddenly Northern Rock being actually concluded and a fairly uneventful budget have been seismic.
I think it has much to do with the credit crunch. People are worried now about the economy, and they can see that Labour’s “miracle” boom was just that - a boom. Now they have lost confidence in Brown in particular as being able to manage the economy.
Gordon Brown said:
No return to boom and bust
NO RETURN TO BOOM AND BUST
NO RETURN TO BOOM AND BUST
All the while he was condoning a huge debt-fuelled boom that was always bound to bust. And now it has.
Interesting also that the LDs are moving up back to the 2005/6 level. Nick Clegg bounce, or Vince Cable recognition?
Effects on the local elections in May? A few more Labour losses, but the Mayoral contest is the only big thing on offer.
5 Never been better off in my life. Don’t think that the Labour Gov that have been in power for the last eleven years have been responsible for my situation; or that the Tories that were in power for God knows how long kept me poorer.
Just a wild coincidence.
Don’t care anyway, nothing to carp about, don’t give a toss who pretends to run London, or the rest of the country for that matter.
Life is perfect in Florida, North Dakota, and the south of France; just get a bit fed up when we are back in the UK. Don’t think sweet-talking Dave can do much about that - unless, of course, he controls the weather.
Just love to read PB for the interesting stuff on the US election and the odd tips for the geegees.
Love to all from sunny Florida.
Malcolm
12. Bizarre that all the cash for peerages bad news and storm that there was end of last year didnt shift things much, then suddenly Northern Rock being actually concluded and a fairly uneventful budget have been seismic.
Not really - Cash for Peerages is irratating. Economic downturns are tangebile i.e. NDI goes down or people lose jobs/ houses etc. The combination of C for P and a prelonged turndown - deadly!
7. Yes, Tony Blair was always worried about complacency, even when it looked like he was going to win, and win big, he kept the onslaught up on John Major, he grinded him down, he stamped on him, he kicked the cold dead corpse so many times he broke a few toes.
Right up until 10.00 on election day 1997, the devestating attack continued on and on.
Dont worry, we wont be complacent, and we wont stop kicking until we know this dreadful, corrupt, incompetent and morally bankrupt adminstration is chased from Downing street.
[4] - “Public opinion has moved decively against Labour after they have raped the English Taxpayer in the last 10 years.”
Only the first part of your sentence is true.
[5] - “Labour is facing a wipeout.”
As the experience of 1983 shows, and the seat calculators reflect, the way in which the Labour vote is distributed means they are less prone to being wiped out than the Tories. Even on 29%, less than the Tory score in 1997, Labour could well have more than 200 seats - ie more seats than the Tories currently hold.
However, this depends on which voters are turning away from Labour, and why. We’ll get more info about that by looking at the geographical spread of results in the local elections coming up.
It’s all a bit odd as to why things have suddenly shifted. There is usually a bit of a time lag - so will the effect of the budget be seen? If so I think this is a general response to the lack of direction, inspiration that brown is offering.
16. Only the first part of your sentence is true. Well how do you explain the targeting of taxes on things that ditroportionatly affect the south like stamp duty then?
16. Brown raped the english as C of E and is watching over Darling doing the same.
18 - The south isn’t synomymous with England. Generally, Labour has not actually raised the overall burden by a huge amount; in fact, that’s part of the problem, as spending can no longer be financed by corporate receipts and overall earnings growth.
16 “However, this depends on which voters are turning away from Labour, and why.”
Agreed. If beneaqth the headline numbers it is former LibDems going to the Conservatives and the LibDem numbers are being replenished from Labour, that could make for an interesting electoral shake-up next time.
More good news for Boris.
Clearly good polls for Conservatives ok for LibDems and bad for Labour but before all the Conservatives write off Labour completely go back and look at the polls at the end Nov to mid December and they were showing just as good if not better Conservative figures one Yougov showing them at 45% . Labour pulled that position back in the 3 months until last week’s budget and have plenty of time to do so again
[18] - Gordon Brown cut taxes on housing (stamp duty) in the middle of a housing boom. The sensible thing to do would have been to increase stamp duty to help take the heat out of the boom, so that then he would have the wriggle room to cut them when the cycle went in the opposite direction, as now.
His changes on income tax disproportionately affect the working poor, who disproportionately live outside of England. I had not realised you were making an odious English nationalist point, I thought you were merely saying English, where you meant British. I disagreed with your second statement on the basis that you do not know that it is for the reason of increased taxes that people have turned against Labour - it is only your opinion that this is so.
13 Never been better?
So Labour has been stealing from Peter and giving to “I’m alright Jack”.
17 - SeanT will tell you it’s Europe
Does your work on ID cards please you, Mr Palmer, given that they’re one of the things that’ll cost you the election?
[21] - Yes. However, the Yougov regional breakdown suggested to me that, in the north, ex-Labour voters are bypassing the Lib Dems and going straight to the Tories.
20. England as a whole has given its population taken up the burden. Stamp duty land tax is just an example of one of the many ways money has been plundered from england. The very fact that the population of England accounts for 80% plus of the UK population means that England has been victim to Brown’s largesse. Yhis is particularly irrating due to the persistance of the Barnett formula.
Perhpas this is down to Brown’s pledge that he’d ended boom and bust. One man cannot hold back the economic cycle. It’s similar to no tax rises being promisied by Major only for that pledge to be broken
There’s no sensible reason for thinking that a whole load of LibDems have suddenly deserted to the Conservatives.
31, the Cleggnut, surely?
16 As the experience of 1983 shows, and the seat calculators reflect, the way in which the Labour vote is distributed means they are less prone to being wiped out than the Tories.
It is possible that tactical voting will enable Labour to retain their undeserved gerrymandered advantage…but I’m guessing that little conundrum may get fixed.
’sides…do you think Labour will bottom out at 27/29%?
Do you think things will get better or worse?
Still sign of the sage of PB.com? Maybe he his trying too off load his Barclays shares!
Can somebody name the last popular measure that Gordo has introduced ? A Cobra during the flood ?
30. Maybe Brown’s No more Boom and Bust will become like Major’s devaluation?
Having rallied from a dire polling position once or twice Labour will find it ever hard to repeat the feat - sentiment always behaves like that. In market terminology it was a dead cat bounce.
35. Making Peter Hain resign!
So Hain could spend more time with his Sun bed!!! 
37. Labour are doomed. This is just the vault being concreated over!
26 SeanT will tell you it’s Europe
Lying about the referendum didnt help…
neither did lying about the election…or lying about the economy…or inflation…or cash for coronets (etc)
Each lie has taken a hit. Labour has been unpopular even with die hard Labour supporters for a long time. It has reached critical mass…
Labour is in trouble and many of the Labour MP’s must be sitting in the Brown stuff.
This is truly dreadful for the Labour party.
As a LD I am cheered. We may yet gain seats at the next GE. Local results (real votes in real elections as the rampers say) are promising.
Oh, and well done to the Tories on a great poll for them.
It will be interesting to see the bounce the LDs will get on the back of the Henley by-election win later in the year.
39, a nice idea, but people were saying that of the Tories six months ago.
Now, there is actually another mainstream leftwing party that could usurp Labour’s place. However, that requires Cleggnut having a spine and targeting Labour instead of seeking to be their special friend, so I suspect Labour are quite safe as a political entity.
Stamp duty land tax is just an example of one of the many ways money has been plundered from england.
But this isn’t a clear indication of a deliberately disproportionate burden - you’d have to demonstrate that, across income groups (who’ve been affected in different ways) the burden is worse in England than in the other UK countries. England cetainly contains the vast majority of England’s population - but the effect of spending is vastly different over entire areas.
Barnett was specifically meant to equalise spending over time. The problem is that governments (Conservative as well as Labour) kept pushing up Scotland’s total levels of spending for various political reasons, and that upset the formula’s balance.
40. Maybe Brown will do a John Major: resign as Labour party leader and fight a leadership election?
[35] - I asked this question at the time of the Yougov poll and got a null response.
[33] - It’s not gerrymander, it’s a simple result of geographically-coherent seats, FPTP and the greater clumpiness of Labour voters (due to the housing market, and the middle classes avoiding working class people, I suppose). If you plot the percentages that each party won in each seat, I’d expect Labour to have a more skewed distribution than the Tories.
Gordon Brown hasn’t even been PM for a year yet! As a leftist, though never a fan of New Labour, I’m desperately disappointed at how much help he’s giving t’other side.
45 - I can think of likelier things, to say the least. Like Amy Winehouse becoming the next pope.
38 Poor old Peter Hain. He was employing his 80 year old grandmother as Research Assistant. Where will granny get her bingo & cruise money now?
Old Granny Hain will need to rely on the state pension and one off heating allowance.
She must be worried now Labour imposing lenient sentencing on violent criminals who target the elderly.
46 - “the greater clumpiness of Labour voters” - not wishing to be rude, but I had noticed that they are a bit clumpier.
The Tories have not won anything yet. The polls are good and indicate that the electorate dislikes the budget, dislike Darling and dislike Brown.
Can Labour recover yes. They have too start with beating Boris in May, if they don’t they will look like losers for the first time in 11 years.
40. Who would stand? Who would want to be labour party leader now? Who would challenge him?
The labour party will lose the next election with Brown then replace him. He’s safe for the moment.
46 Call it what you will. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck - its a duck.
Duck is best served crispy with pancake rolls.
I recommend Poons off Leicester square.
31/32 The detailed data for the ICM/NofW poll is on the ICM website , the figures for comparison with how people voted in 2005 show not much change to previous polls
net Labour to LibDem 11 voters
net LibDem to Con 13 voters
net Labour to Con 20 voters
I don’t put any value on the regional figures in these polls but FWIW ICM have the LibDems ahead of Labour in the South
53. A case of LD winning here!
Labour’s fundamental problem, I think, is not with policy - people haven’t suddenly revolted against them. As discussed a few days ago, the real problem is with the messenger. People are disillusioned and bored with the government, as they get bored with all governments, and there’s no real way Labour can rethink itself. It’s a bit like Attlee in 1955; people hadn’t rejected Labour’s post-1945 changes, but there’s no way parties can fight the same battle indefinitely. New Labour is finished as a brand, although the policies it represents will probably emerge again in some form.
Can Labour recover?
Well, if they ditch Brown and sort the economy by end April 2008 . If so they can walk on water as well.
I hate to say this, but things are very likely to get a lot worse. Brits going abroad are going to find foreign holidays more expensive due to the falling pound .
The SNP will no doubt find some way of rubbing the English nose in it before the elections.
Hopeless Harriet will no doubt offend everyone - except those who have no common sense.
And we are due to have another Government IT scandal soon as we have not had one for weeks.
Is that ahead of labour and behind the Tories?
50 It is only my opinion - but Labour cannot recover.
They inherited a healthy economy from the Conservatives and have been living off lies, debt and immigration fuelled house prices and cheap labour.
They are unable to do anything useful. It is not in their nature. They reward the undeserving and penalise the talented, hard working and productive.
The only successes Labour are responsible for are
1) Bank of England independence
2) Reducing the proportion of English
3) Lowering the Homosexual Age of consent so that 40year old men can bugger 16 yr old boys.
Thats it. There is nothing else.
33. If we get a Tory Government, do you think we could see a cull of labour constituencies at the next boundary review?
An average of this poll,and the News of Th World and You Guv Sunday polls gives this:
Vote share:
Conservative 42.67% 365 seats
Labour 29.00% 213 seats
Lib Dem 19.00% 37 seats
Others 10.33% 35 seats (4 Scot Nat gains)
I DO confess I did not look at the Wales list of seats,so may be one or two out.
I need a drink to steady my nerves PDQ
25
Are you doing badly at the moment? Poor are you? Going to sell the computer to buy food, are you? Are you? Are you?
Or maybe you are cutting down on porterhouse stakes and champers, are you? Well, are you?
Malcolm
59,
No. Because of the way the boundry commision is set up.
[50] - “Can Labour recover yes.”
Something, though, would have to change. They would have to be capable of some serious self-reflection, identifying where they have gone wrong, and working out how to put it right.
That’s what Brown was supposed to be doing in the first place, when he took over from Blair. Yet it was all a charade. Despite carping for the past ten years about how he would do things differently, it turns out he’s just the same, though he hasn’t managed to initiate a war of his own yet.
I’ve come to think of Balls as some sort of grotesque Grima Wormtongue type figure, but I suspect that probably lets Gordon Brown off the hook for his incompetence in making his own mistakes. Gordon Brown is no Theoden.
60, should that happen, d’you think Clegg would be quietly disposed of?
Given his inauspicious start, and the closeness of the contest Huhne must be itching for another stab at it. As it were.
59 I cant imagine we wouldnt.
57 Con 41 LibDem 27 Lab 25 but as I have said I don’t put any faith in these subsamples .
62 No. Because of the way the boundry commision is set up.
Clearly the boundary commission is not serving democracy properly and is liable to Reform.
Thatcher had chance and did not take it. I am sure it would something that Sean Fear could tell us more about.
63. To get change there needs to be an intellectual vigour there brimming with ideas to be turned into policies. That simply doesn’t exist in a party that has been in goverment for three terms. The GOP in the US has the same problem - everything they’ve come up with has already been attempted.
It’s the economy.
another good poll, nice. however the election is a long way away, plenty of time for things to change back, however I doubt it with the way brown is going. He has no plan, no narrative on the tories (that hasnt failed miserably) and a bunch of clueless morons advising him. If Clegg improves I can see the lib dems making some gains in labour areas, but the tories will probably blitz them in some areas too.
60 - “Conservative 42.67% 365 seats”
I fail to see how a system that might deliver a comfortable overall majority to the Tories on 42.67% of the vote is biased against the Tories. But still they moan!
58 - “Lowering the Homosexual Age of consent so that 40year old men can bugger 16 yr old boys.” A cheap line, Al. But since 40 year old men could already bugger 16 yr old girls, what is wrong with this lowering.
60. Patrick, your posts would be much easier to read if you put spaces in after punctuation.
will jim “the two-bob liar” Murphy be replaced by bill cash as Europe minister after the hext election?……… oh happy days!
[52] - Well, if you don’t like it, you know the solution, don’t you. PR, particularly STV, would solve that problem, but I doubt you’d want a system that forced you to go cap in hand to the Lib Dems to form a government.
You can’t “fix” that aspect of the FPTP electoral system - except by creating geographically inconsistent seats, which would leave the system vulnerable to actual gerrymander. Else you could nationalise housing and indulge in some radical social engineering.
You are accusing it of being purposefully fixed by underhand tactics, and the simple truth is that it isn’t. It’s a result of the Maths. Quite an interesting one really, and the truth is often more interesting than fevered paranoia.
After all the talk of doom and gloom on financial markets today its seems remarkable that the Dow Jones Index is actually up at the end of the day
61. “Are you doing badly at the moment? Poor are you? Going to sell the computer to buy food, are you? Are you? Are you? … are you? Well, are you?”
You are the one boasting of how all right you are Jack.
Ever notice how lefties try to target your concience? Thing is, lefties dont even have a concience.
Erm…POGWAS
64 It’s unlikely. Only Ten LD seats can really be classed as ultra vulnerable i.e no real incumbency or strongly entrenched Member of Parliament like Bob Russell. Another ten could on a real Tory strong showing be dislodged with difficulty. After that it gets very hard for the Tories even with a real Tsunami in their favour. But if the LD’s are only a couple % off their 2005 mark and Labour well down you have to think they’d be a good chance of picking corresponding gains from Labour
76, yeah…until you see the FTSE’s down 217. Have to see if tomorrow a recovery is staged.
76 that will depress all the Tory doomsters on here
67 - I doubt any Conservative government would be foolish enough to touch it. Apart from (arguably) Welsh over-representation, the factors which bolst Labour’s position aren’t deliberate, and it’s very difficult to stop them without introducing legislation specifically designed to undermine Labour - a cure worse than the disease which will lead us all into explicit gerrymandering.
75 ? eh? me?
err…dunno…STV? Isnt that Single transferable vote. Is it like the frenchies have or the London Mayor?
I heard a story about the prelude to a greek battle. The candidates had 2 votes. Each voted for themselves and with their 2nd vote, voted for the best candidate.
I quite liked that story. Dont know if it is true though.
I’ve just been phone canvassed by ICM! Never happened before.
Just been thinking about the way the wind seems to be blowing and am genuinely interested in how Labour supporters feel looking back over the past 10plus years. When the Conservatives were booted out in 1997 the foot soldiers could at least look back and know their party had transformed (for better or for worse but undeniably transformed)the economic and political landscape. It honestly looks to me like the Conservatives are going to pick up pretty well where they left off. Why on earth weren’t Labour bolder? Blair could have done ANYTHING between 1997-2002 and we were powerless to stop him. I have a lot of respect for traditional Labour and would put Atlee in my top 5 political heros but really wonder what the past decade has all been about?
More good news for Cameron (from last Thursday, but may have been missed):
The Conservatives were today in overall control of Telford & Wrekin Council for the first time ever, following 34 years of successive Labour administrations.It follows two by-election successes for Tory candidates last night.
Clive Mollett captured Horsehay and Lightmoor ward with a majority of nearly 200, following the resignation of the sitting independent councillor Dr Adam Pringle.
Terry Kiernan retained Wrockwardine Ward for the Tories with a 600-plus majority.
Council leader Andrew Eade said today: “This is a historic result and a ringing endorsement by the electorate of our policies and recent budget proposals which include huge regeneration projects for the borough as a whole.
“We are grateful for the clear support shown to us by the community.
76. Its called value buying.
82 “I doubt any Conservative government would be foolish enough to touch it.”
Well if you says so I guess that settles it then.
[59,65,67] - Get a grip, you’re beginning to sound like Mugabe, fixing the electoral system to favour your own side.
71/79 It would seem to hinge on whether it is Yougov or ICM which are giving an accurate LibDem figure . On ICM figures the Conservatives would not blitz the LibDems anywhere . FWIW the council byelections indicate that ICM are closer to the truth than Yougov .
Any word from Roger yet?
So, YouGov was broadly right? Terrible, terrible news for Labour. The plan now will be to avert a blood bath on May 1st, but on these numbers, that may be difficult. The local election campaign will begin within a couple of weeks, and its safe to assume that Cameron will be front and center in all the election broadcasts. The Conservatives will build on their momentum during the next month, IMO.
89. i mean in more tory areas you could see them go tory, but the lib dems could push labour out of some of their heartlands in the north.
72 “But since 40 year old men could already bugger 16 yr old girls, what is wrong with this lowering”
Well, that is true. I have to respect your argument.
However, I did say it was a success. A lot of happy mums and dads would probably agree.
We do need to be aware that in some areas Labour have bottom out or near to it in local contests so some massive loss may not come about.
Of course, before 1994 (and the Act which lowered the gay age of consent to 18), heterosexual buggery was entirely illegal.
88 Get a grip, you’re beginning to sound like Mugabe, fixing the electoral system to favour your own side.
No, not to favour my side - or anyone’s side.
It just needs fixing to be fair.
I’m sure we can all agree on that.
I’m not sure what form a bloodbath would take. If these figures held, what you’d be looking for is something closer to Labour’s 1967-68 wipeouts. They can probably live with bouncing along at rock bottom.
94 I did not know that.
90
I would imagine the Conservatives have some news/policies to release for the May elections…
88
No need to fix the electoral system. Just fix the electorate instead. The LibDems are vulnerable to SNP in Scotland so set them and Labour at each other’s throats. No doubt there is some way of doing that:-)
As for the electorate, neuter the trade unions once and for all by sorting the Political Levy, stop all Gov’t subsidies to trade Unions and restrict all donations to £25,000 per person.
Then with an inquiry into the Iraq war, all the Cabinet at the time of the decision to go to war can be charged with deceiving Parliament (treason is too complex)..
94 - I think it may have been legal within marriage but I may be wrong.
96 There are not enough seats up this year for that sort of scenario and the majority of them are in safe Labour areas anyway like the Met districts
The ramping will begin early this year.
From labour “Tories only won Xxx councilors, should be doing better if they are to win a GE” No council gains in the Urban areas etc.”
The Tories “Look at all or councils and councillors, aren’t they nice and shiny.”
The libdems “Well we won here, and here and there as well.”
[53] - Thanks Mark. Interestingly it looks like ICM had to downweight ABs and upweight council tenants in order to get a representative sample (for the NotW poll). This is contrary to the stereotype often perpetuated on here.
The weighting still reduced the Labour share, so perhaps these were opinionated professional Guardian reading types, excited by finally having the opportunity to answer an opinion poll?
95 - indeed to be fair. Anything that could give the Tories a solid majority on about two-fifths of the vote is clearly not fair.
82 You could go for a permanent boundary commission, as in Australia, so that seats were being reviewed between each election.
89 My feeling is ICM are right. I’ve always felt YouGov had a Baxter problem with the Lib Dems even if they are good for Labour v Conservative. While the LDs would certainly not be blitzed on ICM. They would be likely to slip a few to the Tories and pick up a few from Labour
95 - I don’t think fairness is achievable, though (unless you were to do osmething really radical like introduce compsulory voting to force Labour’s abstaineers out). Population decline in certain areas and abstention aren’t things you can really alter the electoral system to take account of, and a party strong enough to win an FPTP election isn’t suffering unduly from them.
Many of the comments from Conservative activists tonight remind me why I stopped posting on this site. Nasty, crowing, over the top, lacking any insight or proportionality.
It’s a pity Mike’s site has been invaded over recent months by so many odd individuals, who would be better off sticking to the comments section of Guido Fawkes.
105 Agree Punter shock horror
Surely staying static is a disaster for the Lib Dems - they are bleeding support back to the Cons but can persuade a net gain from Labour ?
Might the general dislike of tax’n’spend be biting them on the bum too ?
Isn’t it possible Labour could seats in these “safe” Labour areas? If you assume Labour will poll even worse than these opinion polls suggest at the local elections (they normally do?) then surely we’ll be reaching a point where even in their heartlands, they will start to lose seats?
[84] - Yes, well, the point of the New Labour project was always to win elections, not to do anything once that had been achieved. I think that they somehow thought that, if they didn’t get distracted by the task of running the country, they would be able to keep on beating the Tories indefinitely. It doesn’t look to be turning out that way.
101. true, we’ll have labour trying painfully to spin the losses as bad for the tories, the tories getting tanked up and celebrating, and the lib dems…erm……well….
A little piece of humour from Tony Blair
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7300362.stm
You already were talking to them Tony, at least of the suited delegation that you met regularly were on the council…
This has to be the biggest load of load cack from Powell imaginable.
And on the subject of MPs expenses, I have been studying the claims of the almost invisible member for Finchley and Golders Green Rudi Vis.
Although the constituency is only seven miles from Westminster, he claimed £17,000 last year for “additional costs” of staying near Westminster, but also racked up over 14,000 miles in care mileage. This implies that he made four round trips to his constituency per day Monday to Friday for a whole year, and given average traffic speeds in London of 10mph he would have spent six hours a day in his car. No wonder his voting record and contributions to debates were recorded by theyworkforyou.com as “below average”. It must be a hard life.
Or could there, perhaps, have been an inadvertent error in the claim
More instructive to look at movement since February Guardian ICM poll.This gives Con +6,Lab -5,lib no change.
The increased tory support is I suspect a combination of the EU referendum and the Budget.Difficult for the Tory’s to get a further boost on this scale unless unravelling of sub prime effect on UK economy is blamed on Gordon.
General direction clear though-Tories up Labour down Lib dems stalled.Labours prospects for the May locals now look increasingly bleak-The swings since 2004 would be Lab to con 10%,Lab to Lib 4%,Lib to con 4%.Labour share of vote likely to be lowest on record with Libs beating them into third place.
rogerh
The best thing about a comfortable Con Victory would be the opportunity it would present for Cameron to have a purge of his party’s more undesirable and unhelpful elements - no pseudonyms mentioned !
107. We’ve been through this. If you cant stand the heat….or just plain ignore it.
104 Sean At the abysmally slow rate they conduct reviews now you will have to increase the staffing substantially to achieve that . Thought Conservatives wanted to reduce public spending not increase it .
107 = snowflake
Mike, not sure the shift was much to do with Cameron’s spring conference which was probably watched by about 3 people nationwide.
It was more to do the completely crap Labour budget performance and the awful economic situation.
Spoke with a Tory friend this evening who said he’s not looking forward to a Tory victory. He doesn’t think Cameron is really his kind of Tory.
117 - you’re right.
bye.
104 - That could be one alternative. Perhaps, there’d be a compromise settlement, where review areas could be left unchanged unless there were specific changes in the overall electorate which justified additional or fewer seats, or the alterating of exisitng seats (rather like the provision to change MK before the next national review if the size of the city requires it). In any event, I’d be in favour of having boundary changes following straight on from the next census, taking account of forecasts over the next decade.
115, I don’t have a mortgage, but when people come off fixed rates and discover their costs have shot up, the recent tax rises may take on a new light. The alcohol rises, whilst annoying for many, aren’t exactly bank busters, but the increased costs of purchasing cars that aren’t made of cheese and run on sunshine is a bit more serious.
120. i’m a dyed in the wool tory and support cameron whole heartedly. even my grandad, who was old school tory, said that cameron was another stage in the evolution of the tory party, and was desperately needed.
117. That’s what I do.
77
Notice how right-wingers never answer the question?
I spent all my life, before I retired, working in areas of poverty and doing my best to help the poor keep going despite the withering Thatcher years. Ever seen people who had to sell their front door to put food on the table? Not a sensible thing to do, but feeding the kids is important.
Now I’ve retired, and truthfully have never been financially better off. I am not physically capable of doing what I did before.
My conscience is in pretty good nick. How’s yours?
Malcolm
Looks like the panic is begining to set in.
In Croydon reports are begining to emerge that the Labour Councillor for West Thornton Ward, Mike Mogul, has defected to the Tories.
This gives the Tories an 18 seat majority in a borough which they regained from Labour in May 2006 (after 12 years of Labour rule).
126. I’m sure it is ok in Florida - are you paying Uk tax ?
110 Labour did poll even worse than these polls in the local elections in 2004 and 2006/2007 they always underperform in local elections compared to their opinion poll standings even in good years for them .
[110] - How motivated to turn out would you be if you were a Labour voter? Only problem is that the Tory grassroots organisation in a lot of these areas is going to be pretty thin. Mr Herdson had an interesting comment at the time of the Yougov poll about that sort of thing
[109] - The Lib Dems would accept static after polling 13%, and the explicit targeting of their voters by Cameron.
[89] - This is the main question for the pollsters, really. The difference has been consistent for a while now, so that it might even be statistically significant.
Re 127
Story here:
http://www.croydonconservatives.com/
126. Malcolm did you honestly once see someone selling their front door to pay for their children’s food?
I think we can expect on the London Poll to see Paddick blitz the second preference figures now on Ken’s support. I think he’ll do well but I think Ken’s support is just too tribal to break
126. Gordon Brown never answers questions. Is he a right winger then?
Hard to blame the Tories for gloating: unambiguously great polls for them. Wait a couple of months as it starts to drift down and we get our turn at ‘has Cameron lost it?’
Meanwhile, I see Clinton edging ahead of Obama both for the nomination and in performance against McCain. Personally I don’t think it’ll be enough, but any more revelations and Obama will be in trouble, no matter what the delegate arithmetic looks like. Question for Obama supporters here: you’ve used the argument that he’s more electable vs McCain before. If that were to appears no longer to be true by a convincing margin, would you still support him? And do you think the superdelegates still would? (I have little insight into them so it’s a genuine question.)
I think the danger for Labour from this poll is that it suggests that the May elections could be grim. The poll earlier shows that Ken could struggle big time. If the Results in May are terrible for Labour including losing the Mayoralty could that feed back into the polling figures? Is there any evidence that parties get boosts from successful local election results?
126 You are all right Jack.
What is important to you is all that is important to you.
Answering a leftie - is like putting wheels on a dog, very time consuming for very little benefit.
[134] - Of course Brown is a right-winger. Where have you been for the last decade or so?
re 107 Thanks for your comment. I do not have any record of you ever posting here before tonight
126 “Ever seen people who had to sell their front door to put food on the table?
Have you ever seen a hungry man eat his own head?
No? Well neither have I
135 Nick Palmer, it is not just the Tories who are gloating.
Anyone who dislikes corruption, war-mongering, authoritorianism and incompetence is gloating. I.e., pretty much everyone unconnected with New Labour.
And in addition, I suspect Tony Blair is gloating as well (or has at least discovered a bright shiny silver lining).
re 135. I think that Hillary’s best chance is if she can overtake Obama on the popular vote. I cannot see the super-delegates over-riding both the pledged delegate totals and the popular vote one.
All this makes Puerto Rico’s decision to go for a primary rather than a caucus very interesting. It’s here where Hillary might just catch up.
On the pastor issue Obama is making a big speech tomorrow. It will be a measure of the man.
142. What time will that speech be made?
135. It’s not just that Obama is more electable but that he would be a better seller of policies to congress and the public than Clinton. My opinion of this is based on how he talks and puts his argument across, not on any opinion polls, which mean little at this stage. If the reverse was true, I probably would have switched to Clinton - that was until her campaign started the race-baiting. I’d probably vote for her over McCain just - but only because we can’t afford another conservative on the supreme court.
103 Anything that could give the Tories a solid majority on about two-fifths of the vote is clearly not fair.
If it could also give Labour, LibDems, BNP, SNP a solid majority on about two-fifths of the vote, then clearly it IS fair.
136. Thanks James. I’m glad I’m not the only one that can see disaster for Labour on May 1st, even though they are mainly met districts. And however the seats shake out, surely Labour is facing one of its lowest vote share ever?
138 Of course Brown is a right-winger. Where have you been for the last decade or so?
No dimwit. Gordon Brown doesnt answer questions.
Goodness, you have to spoon feed some people.
144. As for superdelegates, Clinton would have to win the popular vote for them to even consider overturning the delegate lead. Without that, Obama would have to be absolutely mired in scandal. Otherwise they could lose African-American support for a generation.
145 - I really don’t know what planet you are on.
The idea that fewer MPs might make for a better parliament has been floating around for some time. I
ain Dale wrote in October 2004 : “I understand the Conservatives will have a manifesto commitment to reduce the number of MPs in Britain from 659 to 550.” More recently Clegg has jumped on the idea.
It has some merit and would give an opportunity to really reform pay and rations for MPs so the silly allowances system can be removed.
The feeling that modern communication means fewer MPs might do the same job, the possible introduction of EVOL, and rebalancing Scotland, Wales and NI representation in parliament after devolution suggests that the remit of the Boundary Commission will have to change to accommodate these possible reforms.
If that happens then the concept of equal numbers in each constituency, the use of ‘natural boundaries’ to constituencies ( city, town, county etc) might lead to considerable changes in basics of many constituencies including their ’safe’ nature.
MPs who might lose their seat on the gravy train may well form up battle lines to stop changes.
135. not really much to look forward too, could swear I’ve heard you say that before too.
123.”115, I don’t have a mortgage, but when people come off fixed rates and discover their costs have shot up”
Fraser Nelson makes a good point in the Coffee House Blog.
“Now and again, Gordon Brown likes to boast that he is able to reduce interest rates – unlike the Tories in early 1990s. One of Magician Brown’s favourite tricks is the “false proxy” – saying “base rates are falling, so homeowners can rest easy.” But as I have blogged before, the distinguishing feature of this credit crunch is the decoupling of the base rate from de facto mortgage rates”
Boasting about lower interest rates are just not going to resonate anymore.
149 Thats ok.
I dont actually exist.
MSNBC are reporting that there will be no re-run in Florida. That is going to be a big blow to the Clinton campaign.
Can I be the first to point out to Nick P that I don’t believe the polls, and that Ben Brogan says Lord Ashcroft’s private polls have the lead at a much more believable seven percent?
138. ROFL. typical Labour Spin.
I can understand why those on the left might want to disassociate themselves from Brown (rats and sinking ships comes to mind) but really there is nothing right wing about Brown. He like all of his ilk stands for Big Government, Authoritarian interference, High taxes, profligate waste of public funds and anti British actions hidden behind weak nationalist rhetoric.
I’m thinking about your article about the budget, with its popular measures but poor polling consequences. I wonder whether this will work the same at election time? When push comes to shove, won’t people think a bit more about measures and a bit less about whether they like the messenger? I’m not saying it’ll all go back, not by any means, but surely this is mid-term blues some of which reverts at election time.
Or maybe I’m just being hopeful.
Birmingham 1 - 1 Newcastle (Full Time)
(bother - why do I not bet on my own team again…)
146 - Well recently Labour have been drastically underperforming their national opinion poll ratings in Local elections. If that is repeated then on the basis of this weekends polls then their vote share could be catastrophic. I would certainly be extremely concerned if I were in Labour High Command tonight as they simply do not have the troops on the ground to compete as strongly as in previous years.
150. There is always an issue of constituency workload. Most MPs offices get ridiculous amounts of paperwork as it is. I would be much more in favour of cutting the numbers in the Lords - down to about 100 even.
157. Which popular measures?
150 Why just a 100 drop in the number of MPs? Why not half the number? Two advantages for Cameron:
If Marcia or Stuart are about, this will make you smile, Iain Dale thinks the unthinkable.
A Conservative/SNP Pact in Westminster is no Longer a Fantasy. Might also be a worry for the Libdems…..
Anthony Wells has now commented on the poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
163.Oops, sorry link not working.
150
There needs to be some payback / cost saving for the taxpayer with the numerous layers of extra government that has appeared over the past 10 years.
For example how on earth does a Scottish Westminster MP fill their day?
Wales and Scotland are vastly over represented at Westminster and with 70% of UK laws now being made in Brussels to have over 600 MP’s plus assorted hangers on is absurd.
160 Proper staffing would help there. US Senators seem to manage although you always have the alternative of your congressman there I suppose.
Reform of the Lords would have to be an essential part of parliamentary reform. I can see no democratic alternative to elected lords with say, a ten year term and a minimum age requirement so it is the ‘experienced’ chamber. Powers must be limited to stop any challenge to the Commons.
Certainly we need a UK high court which has clear and unambiguous power over all devolved legislation to go with these changes.
On the subject of Tony Blair, anyone know when Cherie’s book is due out. More bad news for Gordon!!
162 cont. Two advantages for Cameron. 1. suburban areas, where Tory voters have a higher propensity to vote, would outvote inner city labour areas where turnout is lower. 2. Larger constuencies would blunt the intensive, hand-on localism of the LibDems.
bbc news a disaster for labour re the economy. they are now talking about the coming property collapse…… goodnight labour
160. I think reducing the Lords is neither here or there. If few supposedly care about the EU or EVfEL virtually nobody cares about the Lords.
There is a way that the number of MP’s c