Is this the most crucial speech of the campaign?
March 18th, 2008
Can the favourite balance the pressures and silence the critics?
At 10.15 ET, 3.15pm in the UK, Barack Obama will rise to make what could be the speech that determines whether he gets the nomination or not. The title “Race, Politics, and Unifying our Country” says it all and all eyes will be on Philadelphia where the event is taking place.
This is how the excellent Politico site is setting the scene: “..He is now facing a full-blown and fast-moving political crisis in which his reputation as a leader with a singular ability to transcend racial divisions and unite Americans is in jeopardy.A convergence of factors — a media firestorm, a Democratic rival eager to exploit his stumbles and, most of all, a Republican opposition eager to rough up the man they expect to face in the general election — have raised the stakes to new heights for Obama with the speech he will deliver..
A successful address would go a long way toward answering Hillary Rodham Clinton’s complaint that Obama has never shown he can handle the rough-and-tumble nature of modern political combat.
A failure could leave many of the white independent voters — a key group behind Obama’s swift rise in national politics — doubting whether he is really the bridge-builder and healer he has portrayed himself to be.”
In the nomination betting Clinton price has tightened a touch and Obama’s has moved out a notch since this blew in the media last week.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
You might be right, how do approach this from a betting point of view?
I hope its a good speech - I’m ball deep in OB.
2 poetic
1 Jonathan. Simple. Wait for our Roger to proclaim and lump in !!
1 If he gives the commanding speech many believe and expect he’s capable of, then you don’t want to be holding a Hillary position. His fumbling this play is perhaps her last realistic chance to question his capability in the Democratic campaign. And even if in reality the speech is so-so, his campaign might still engineer a number of Super-D’s to say “Wow - that answered our questions about his ability!” - and as they line up behind him, the media message will be deviated his way.
New CNN/ORC Presidential Poll :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/18/candidate.poll/index.html
If Obama’s price tightens and Hillary’s eases I will probably put more on her. Anything above 3.1/1 is good value.
Jack W,
You missed off “..in the opposite direction.”
I’ve been out of touch for a few days. Who’s this Rev. Jeremiah Wright character and what’s this ‘media firestorm’?
8 lL. I know what I meant.
Do we know who Obama’s speechwriters are?
re 11. According to this he is writing it himself -
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23685624/
7 Mike, I stll don’t see the “Hillary above 3.1/1 is good value” thing.
Short of Obama coming to the podium, declaring he really IS a Muslim and denouncing Louis Farrakhan as being a wuss, it is truly in the area of special pleading to see Hillary as having a chance. With no re-run in Florida, Obama is now within spitting distance of the majority in pledged delegates. He WILL achieve this - it is mathematically implausible -> impossible for him not to. Hillary will not catch him in the popular vote (not unless you are EXTREMELY selective in the choice of primaries and caucuses you include). He has already won most states, primaries and caucuses, with others a shoo-in.
And the Super-D’s will have to tear the party in two for a generation if they go off in a different direction from the pledged delegates. Even, I would suggest, if Hillary had a sizeable lead in the match-ups against McCain. Which currently she shows no sign of achieving.
That outcome isn’t 3.1/1 - nowhere near.
6 - Once that is added to the RCP average we get:
Obama 45.8 McCain 46
Clinton 47.1 McCain 46.3
So Clinton leads by 0.8 whereas Obama trails by 0.2, not a statistically significant difference but movement from February where Obama did better. This is something to keep an eye on. If Clinton continues to do better than Obama it may affect the voters and the supers.
284 from previous thread… Dont flatter yourself..typical Nulabour delusion…
Though to be fair to Jonathan, Kieran, Hopi Sen and usually Nick P when he’s not spinning) there is a sensible intellectual coherence to their Labourite arguments that means that though personally I disagrre with what they are saying I am always interested in their Labour perspective and I can broadly understand their view point. I think thats very helpful as a Conservative in understanding where Labour are coming from both from a politcial and betting perspective.
Roger is amusing but blinded by partisanship and the rabid Labdem anoraks (you know who you are) are rarely worth listening to at all!
Gwynfa (from previous thread) - nobody could accuse Sean T of being a real human being!
New polling projections in PA. Clinton ahead of Obama.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/18/clinton-ahead-of-obama-in-pennsylvaina-by-1214/
I can’t help feel that this has been a suspiciously good week for Obama - makes me wonder if Pastorgate was strategically planned.
Obama faced certain challenges a couple of weeks ago
- a long time until the Pennsylvania primary that he would probably not win
- the accusation that he is a fairweather candidate, who cannot handle trouble
- shared coverage with Hillary, instead of the solo TV time that McCain is enjoying
- a proportion of the country not convinced that he is not a secret Muslim
- accusations that he is just the ‘black’ candidate - disgusting legwork by Ms Ferraro, but there was a danger that it might have chimed
By having this quasi-scandal - which is nothing more than guilt by association, and not exactly in the Spitzer/Rezko/Clinton league - he has received the support of African Americans who don’t like seeing Pastor Wright villified for speaking plainly about their plight, he has had massive solo TV coverage topped off by today’s self-written speech, he overcomes the idea that crisis-management isn’t his forte, and most importantly he gets to admonish (or at least distance himself) from old style black politicians from ‘another generation’ (Clause IV for African American poitician), and gets most of America talking about the 20 years he spent in the pews at a Christian Church.
This ’scandal’ was never going to engulf his candidacy, especially when the pledged delegate lead and popular vote are looking beyond Hillary, and when he has received the backing of 46 superdelegates in 45 days v her 1 SD. Might not his campaign have torched the ground with a minor scandal for him to play to perfection, and at the same time use the opportunity to reposition himself on race and religious issues, and gain maximum television coverage in an anotherwise fallow period that only helps McCain?
This is likely to be complete nonsense, and I’m reading too much into it, but this is exactly the sort of thing I would expect of top-flight political consultants. If they couldn’t pull risky stunts like this, and get away with it, why would people pay that much for their services. The way Cameron won the Tory leadership, or the other shenanigans that are never reported from political conventions, are barely believable - do we know how this was leaked? Who records a pastor speaking at his church except the faithful. How many people who attend that church are not Obama supporters? Why was it being filmed if not by a member of the congregation - there is nothing criminal, or close to being criminal, in what Pastor Wright says, though much of it I find unfortunate. Someone explain to me how this gets out in the first place…
And now I need to go and talk to the other voices in my head…
Does anyone know if the speech is being streamed live somewhere?
A new PPP Survey for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 56% .. Obama 30%
Looks very sus Obama only polling 63% of black vote !
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_031708.pdf
Arguing that white people invented HIV to kill off black people is up there with David Icke’s lizard people.
Text of speech here..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/18/obama-race-speech-read-t_n_92077.html
Unless Obama does something dramatic during his speech, he is done and dusted. There is no way a Presidential candidate spending twenty years in a church where its main message is “G.d D.mn America” or “9/11 was our fault” can be elected. Obama might manage to steal the nomination by barring the FL re-vote, although it will probably have to be admitted in the end, (and it will give other Super Delegates the excuse they need to vote for Hillary), but he will have to spend a huge amount of time and money defending states such as New Jersey and New York. If he had any honour left he would drop out and prepare for 2012.
19 The embargo on Obama’s speech has been broken - read it here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/18/103320/916/933/479093
This should provoke some serious comment about race in America.
Drudge has the text of the speech.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashos.htm
23 He ain’t going anywhere - except to the White House….
21
Daniel Finkelstien has culled a killer point from a Shelby Steel WSJ article:
“Thus, nothing could be more dangerous to Mr. Obama’s political aspirations than the revelation that he, the son of a white woman, sat Sunday after Sunday — for 20 years — in an Afrocentric, black nationalist church in which his own mother, not to mention other whites, could never feel comfortable. His pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is a challenger who goes far past Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson in his anti-American outrage (”God damn America”).
How does one “transcend” race in this church? The fact is that Barack Obama has fellow-traveled with a hate-filled, anti-American black nationalism all his adult life, failing to stand and challenge an ideology that would have no place for his own mother.”
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/03/every-few-days.html
23. The “main message”? You’ve judged that from a couple of thirty second clips have you?
27. This talk of “hate” is a bit exagerrated. All hate was targeted at institutions like the “USA” or abstract concepts like “white America”. He didn’t call white people devils like Malcolm X.
The speech is live on CNN
23. You really are a Hillary supporter, aren’t you?
23
The speech, as posted by Huffington Post, is a pretty good stab at diffusing ‘the Pastor problem’. It’ll be interesting to see if it moves the polls.
I think that the Northern Rock announcement takes any fig leaf of economic credibility the government had left away. The reason being Billions of pounds from Tax payers money was directed to secure Northern Rock. 2,000 jobs have been announced to be axed today. Given that a buy out by Llyolds TSB would have ended up in a similar outcome - what was the fvcking point!?! The whole UK banking system will lose 10 times the number of jobs that Northern Rock did just because of the destabilising effect of the way Labour have handled it. Livinstone was campaigning about the London Financial Services today but failed to mention that his Labour Government is directly responsible for destabilising the City of London.
If i were Boris Johnson i would highlight the fact that Londoners are paying not only the Financial Bill for Labours incomptence with Northern Rock but Labour are also forfieting many jobs in London to save votes for Labour MP’s in the North East.
32. Livingstone has also got FVck all top do with Financial Service Regulation or for that matter Crossrail.
Seems like a pretty highbrow speech - will therefore be reduced to a soundbite of “race pastor is “family “”
27. Read the Obama speech. It’s good. Rather brave in fact. He could have disowned the pastor entirely, instead he condemns him - but puts it in context. As he says, you do have to remember that blacks of the previous generation - like the pastor - can personally remember Jim Crow laws.
That does explain a certain level of deep-rooted anger. If I could personally remember a time when blacks ran my country in an explicitly racist fashion, and there were signs saying No Whites in restaurants, I’m not sure I’d ever get over the resentment. I’d probably still be seething. I’d maybe want revenge.
Obama really is the most interesting candidate for the American presidency in my lifetime. And possibly the most thoughtful. But I think this whole episode will still damage him.
21 - I agree Sean, I found Pastor Wright extremely unsavoury, but you can see this working for him both ways.
African Americans who doubted he was one of them get to see that Church he attended for 20 years (which also quells the Muslim nonsense), whereas whites who are unnerved by it get to see that he is prepared to admonish the ‘old generation’ and move America beyond the confrontation that marked its race relations in the past. This is his chance to be all things to all men if he pulls it off.
23 - Matthew, how is this a scandal? Nothing criminal, nothing remotely salacious - black pastor angry at USA for racism? In other news Pope ‘may be Catholic’. Hagee is far more damaging to McCain in terms of actually losing votes than Wright is to Obama. At the end of the day, its going to be difficult for the GOP or Hillary to attack Wright without looking like they’re bringing up race again. I think it more likely that he staged this ‘controversy’ than that it costs him either the nomination or the election.
32 - Martin, why should Ken be blamed for national politics? Everyone knows he doesn’t take orders from Downing St, so Northern Rock has nothing to do with it. On the other hand, can we be sure that Boris would be ‘independent’ from Cameron?
35
“He could have disowned the pastor entirely”
I don’t think he could, he’s been attending his church for 20 years, it’s too long an association.
The speech (I read the Huffington post version) is certainly a very good attempt to deal with this, but the Pastor Wright stuff is in talking pictures on YouTube. It’s a toughie.
35 I think it reads well.
In the scenario you describe, I think resentment would be natural, but not the degree of loopiness that Wright has expressed.
35: Truest thing seanT has ever said!
BO moved from 1.41 to 1.38 since the speech started.
35. I know a professor who has done a lot of work in Africa. He once told me that the USA was the only country in the world where the descendants of slaves had to live side by side with the descendants of slaveowners, on the latter’s terms.
I’m sure someone here will now point out examples to show that to be incorrect, but it sure gave me a new understanding of how the USA must look to an African-American.
41. 1.37 …
39. We also have to remember how insane many religious Americans seem to us - Evolution denialists, weird-pant-wearing Mormons, Pat Robinson with his “lesb1ans caused Katrina” etc.
There is a context for all American religiosity, which allows a lot of stuff which we would find quite barmy.
Wright is, arguably, just an angry black version of that. Doesn’t make him excusable, but again its a question of context. Millions of Americans hear mad stuff from their pastors every Sunday, and they don’t bat an eyelid.
41 - Shift to Obama on Intrade as well
42
“He once told me that the USA was the only country in the world where the descendants of slaves had to live side by side with the descendants of slaveowners, on the latter’s terms.”
Given that slavery has been an economic model used by societies/cultures on every continent, I find that assertion rather difficult to take seriously.
39. Clearly the AIDS thing is loopy, but you’d be surprised at how easily we believe completely unevidenced claims when it fits with our own ideology. Free marketeers refusing to accept global warming, despite statements put out by every major academy of scientists, is one I see frequently on here.
46. I guess he meant descendants of slavery who were conscious of that fact as an ethnic group.
“Free marketeers refusing to accept global warming”…
*Some* free marketeers.
is Anthony Minghella’s death really that important? To his family and people he knew, yes but I don’t think it’s worth all the time the BBC are devoting to it.
I havent taken must interest in the details of the US campaign before today, but the news about this item made me put it on the TV and watch Obama live for the first time ever. I am bowled over. He comes across as so genuine. If I’m not unusual, then this is the first time many people have heard Obama, and they have just seen him step up to the mark and prove he’s got what it takes to unify people. I think today helps him, especially the exposure.
42,48 That would be true of a lot of South America, also.
And I would guess more white people emigrated to the US after the abolition of slavery than before.
50. Is he not directing some mini series on at Easter ? The Zimbabwe no1 ladies PI firm - or some such tosh ?
53. If it was scheduled to be on the BBC then no wonder they’re going on about it. A few more Eastenders repeats instead I guess
48
“I guess he meant descendants of slavery who were conscious of that fact as an ethnic group.”
Given the high level of immigration to the USA in the 20th Century, principally economic migrants, is that an accurate picture?
52. Probably true of places like Sudan also. Haven’t most of the South American political systems been written with significant input from minority ethnic groups?
But regardless of the technical truth, it still gives you a certain understanding: The US political system was written by a slaveowning class, and has continued in pretty much the same form as an unbroken line since then. If your ethnic group were the slaves during that time, you probably wouldn’t think too highly of that political system.
LOL @ Matthew Partridge! I see Mr “Iraq is a vote winner” is still at it…
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 48% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 48% .. Obama 42%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
54….
He has also directed a TV episode of book The No 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency, due to be screened this Easter.
A 90-minute pilot, directed by Minghella and co-written with Richard Curtis, is due to be broadcast on BBC One.
re 17 Your views on this are as credible as your “processing” of opinion poll numbers.
60.
And I suppose your views are better then?
Can’t see the delivery; TV here at the cottage in Florida is a hit and miss affair. We don’t have cable so cannot see the important stuff and only have dial-up or as I prefer to call it, steam internet.
Obama’s speech reads really well. I guess we have to remember that the people who needed to hear this speech to change their minds is a tiny percentage. Many will react only to TV media coverage. And for the rest the speech will enhance their strongly held views of the Senator.
The news media will move on; they always do. H Rodham Clinton’s tax returns will be big news when she finally gets round to releasing them. And then the media hasn’t even begun to look at McCain; he’s had a free pass so far. His base is built on shifting sands and may wobble a little when his voting record is scrutanised. He can’t have both the anti-immigration conservatives and the Hispanic vote; he will need to decide, and whatever he decides will harm him.
So interesting times ahead. Obama has the delegates, Clinton the kitchen sink, sceptic tank and poo-filled toilet and McCain has George W Bush.
Malcolm
56. Good point. It must be very difficult for US blacks to hear the Founding Fathers of America praised, continuously, almost to the point of beatification. And yet these same wonderful men were slave owners.
Put it another way: the people who wrote the Constitution, with all its highflown rhetoric about liberty and equality, bought and sold blacks.
If I was a black man in America, that alone might give me very ambivalent feelings about my country.
And then there’s Abraham Lincoln. Some of his views on blacks are almost unprintably racist.
56 The Spanish tended to intermarry with the South American Indians to a considerable extent, but large numbers of them were kept as forced labourers. And almost all of South America’s black population (mainly in Brazil) are the descendants of slaves.
I have to say, I’m not sure how I’d feel if I came from an ethnic group that had been enslaved, in this country, up until 140 years ago. I probably could not feel too much pride in my country’s history, up to that point, but would probably appreciate current opportunities. I doubt if I would naturally identify with people who were opposed to my country in this day and age. My feelings would be even more ambiguous if I was descended both from slaveowner and slave.
60. Mike is this bloke trying to steal all your ideas?
His site looks like an exact copy.
“And then there’s Abraham Lincoln. Some of his views on blacks are almost unprintably racist.”
But, he also did a lot of good for them.
42
“He once told me that the USA was the only country in the world where the descendants of slaves had to live side by side with the descendants of slaveowners, on the latter’s terms.”
That professor had never gone to South Africa, Zimbabwe where even after the removal of legal discrimination the former slaveowners still owned the farms on which the slaves worked.
Also in many Far East countries: eg Saudi.. where slaves in essence still exist.
64. On the point about slaveowner/slave, why is Obama always categorised as black? He is quite clearly a man of mixed race. i realise he has married a black woman, but who would/wouldn’t like him to be referred to as mixed race.
67. Yes yes yes… but America was the slave-owning country par excellence. Its early economy was basically founded on slavery. It probably absorbed more slaves than anywhere else. The slaves had to go further and were probably worse treated than most places - just think of the Middle Passage.
And the Constitution was written by slaveowners. And they also fought an enormous civil war on slavery. Hundreds of thousands of American men died to DEFEND the institution of slavery.
Slavery and its legacy defines America in a way it doesn’t define any other country on earth.
65: Partridge’s site has been set up as a Labour leaning “PB.com” clone to try to astro-turf key events as they come up.
Just browsed the Spectators Americano mini-site, looking for some post-match analysis of Mr Obama’s speech, and noticed they have a posting on a five minute YouTube biog/advert for Mr McCain’s campaign.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/americano/558916/how-mccain-wants-to-define-his-candidacy.thtml
Do companies produce five minute long adverts, for internet advertising? Just idle curiosity on my part.
PS For a long time Partridge was considered to be a spoof poster! He kept on about how Iraq was winning huge amounts of votes among the masses. Now he’s back and he’s been polished
67. He told me at a time after which time South Africa and Zimbabwe were operating under black rule.
All this says to me is that at some point both communities in the USA need to work out that keep dredging up centuries of history is not conducive to building a future. It would be rather like the UK refusing to have anything to do with Scandinavia because of Viking raids. Admittedly there are still huge tensions but a lot of that is because history is forever recycled.
69 And many thousands died to end it.
The other side of the coin is that white people whose ancestors had nothing to do with slavery (except in very ancient times) are almost certainly bound to resent being held in some way responsible for it.
74
“It would be rather like the UK refusing to have anything to do with Scandinavia because of Viking raids”
The welsh still haven’t forgiven the anglo-saxons.
I’ve just read Obama’s speech (haven’t watched the footage), and I think it’s good - very good, even. In theory, it should be good enough to get him through this crisis and perhaps even draw him new supporters, as people realise that the views of Pastor Wright are not his own and hear of his hopeful vision for America.
In practice though, I don’t know if that’s the case. The damage has already been done; some people will have heard this speech, but many more will simply remember Obama’s association with a radical black preacher and hold it against him in November. That may be unfair, but that’s politics. With the absence of the Florida delegates, Obama should be able to win the Democratic nomination; but I fear that this pastor row has seriously damaged his chances of winning the Presidency.
And on 68: “why is Obama always categorised as black? He is quite clearly a man of mixed race.”
It most likely comes down to the history of race in the US, where historically, anyone with any black ancestors at all was characterised as ‘black’, regardless of how many white ancestors they had or what their skin colour actually looked like. (Known as the ‘One Drop Rule’ - the idea that one drop of ‘black blood’ makes someone black.) Despite the unpleasant subtext of this idea, to some extent it still affects American attitudes today.
Andrew Sullivan’s response to the speech.
“Alas, I cannot give a more considered response right now as I have to get on the road. But I do want to say that this searing, nuanced, gut-wrenching, loyal, and deeply, deeply Christian speech is the most honest speech on race in America in my adult lifetime. It is a speech we have all been waiting for for a generation. Its ability to embrace both the legitimate fears and resentments of whites and the understandable anger and dashed hopes of many blacks was, in my view, unique in recent American history.
And it was a reflection of faith - deep, hopeful, transcending faith in the promises of the Gospels. And it was about America - its unique promise, its historic purpose, and our duty to take up the burden to perfect this union - today, in our time, in our way.
I have never felt more convinced that this man’s candidacy - not this man, his candidacy - and what he can bring us to achieve - is an historic opportunity. This was a testing; and he did not merely pass it by uttering safe bromides. He addressed the intimate, painful love he has for an imperfect and sometimes embittered man. And how that love enables him to see that man’s faults and pain as well as his promise. This is what my faith is about. It is what the Gospels are about. This is a candidate who does not merely speak as a Christian. He acts like a Christian.
Bill Clinton once said that everything bad in America can be rectified by what is good in America. He was right - and Obama takes that to a new level. And does it with the deepest darkest wound in this country’s history.
I love this country. I don’t remember loving it or hoping more from it than today.”
I presume Mike in his title refers to the Presidential campaign as the nomation process is all but over. As such, it is a challenge to McCain to respond on similar matters. Or does McCain plan to ignore the race/religion issue that he sought to profit from?
It is interesting to note that both SeanT and Andrew Sullivan, both on the libertarian right, are so positive about Obama.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/the-speech.html
74. Yes. And maybe the best way for this poisonous legacy to be finally overcome is for Americans TO ELECT A BLACK PRESIDENT.
Nothing, but nothing, would do more to heal the racial wounds than an Obama presidency. People can say it is just “symbolic” but sometimes symbols are exactly what you need.
Voting Obama IS the way for America to move on.
And it’s not like Obama is some empty vessel, either. He is a seriously impressive role model, too - a Harvard scholar of notable eloquence and deep intelligence.
How Fox News is reporting it:
Obama Condemns Pastor, But Won’t ‘Disown Him’
In major speech on race, Dem hopeful again condemns Rev. Wright’s incendiary sermons, but defends their relationship and his continued membership in church.
Unbelievable!
“It most likely comes down to the history of race in the US, where historically, anyone with any black ancestors at all was characterised as ‘black’, regardless of how many white ancestors they had or what their skin colour actually looked like. (Known as the ‘One Drop Rule’ - the idea that one drop of ‘black blood’ makes someone black.) Despite the unpleasant subtext of this idea, to some extent it still affects American attitudes today.
”
It’s certainly a curious feature of racial prejudice that people could be deemed “black” because they had one black great-great grandparent, yet others could be deemd “white” despite having much more recent black anestry.
70, One thing that is not copied on his site is the number of comments per thread.
No wonder he spends so much time hanging around here,
82. Let’s leave the poor guy alone! He maybe hugely mistaken on a range of issues, but I think he’s honest in his beliefs, and he’s got as much right to post here and run his own blog as anyone else.
83. What happened to Benedict White ?
83 I agree.
Obama now back up to 75 with Intrade
83. Very well said…I agree entirely..
86. Which way is that on the movement front ?
“Obama should be able to win the Democratic nomination; but I fear that this pastor row has seriously damaged his chances of winning the Presidency.”
That’s something the Hillary team will have to live with for stirring up the story.
Socrates: What Fox are doing is not unbelievable at all. They fear Obama. They know they can destroy Hillary later.
83. I agree, lots of us post here so people might click their names. (not I)
Where can I see the speech?
80.”Obama Condemns Pastor, But Won’t ‘Disown Him’
In major speech on race, Dem hopeful again condemns Rev. Wright’s incendiary sermons, but defends their relationship and his continued membership in church.”
Bill O’Reilly made a good point recently, he said that McCain would have a good message to sell, but that it would not be listened too.
I don’t often comment about the American Presidential race, instead I prefer to read the comments of those who are much better informed than I am on PB.com.
But I listened to the Obama speech today and thought that he came across as unifying candidate in a way that neither Clinton or McCain could. He may have been addressing the concerns expressed over the Pastor’s comments, but he was also appealing to a wide range of voters both Democrat and Republican.
92. I agree with that too..I am utterly convinced that Obama as President would make both the US and the world a safer place..youthful naievity I am sure but having just read the speech it is clear he is something different…why wont the witch just accept the inevitable and bow out..she increasingly looks like yesterday’s news (comparison with Broon is obvious).
81. I think the purpose of the one drop rule was the concern that descendants of slaves might be able to vote - with sympathy towards slaves.
Obama is not going to win. It is pretty obvious that he is knackered. Just think how the Clintons can mess with the minds of Super Delegates etc in making Obama look fallible to all sorts of campaign flaws. Obama should be asking whether he can leave the race and save his face: Yes we Can
Daily Mash’s take on inflation numbers:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/monocle-grease-and-penny-farthing-oil-removed-from-inflation-basket-20080318804/
Not convinced. Methinks.
68 - “but who would/wouldn’t like him to be referred to as mixed race.”
A friend who has read Obama’s autobio tells me that he made a distinct choice to identify himself as black person. As a mixed race person myself I instinctively dislike his mixed race heritage being underplayed but it seems that’s the way he want’s it.
So, how do blacks feel about the ‘one drop rule’. Are they happy for Obama to be termed ‘black’ all the time?
97. Its all about image and how it goes down in the media.
A Black man fighting against the injustice of a white establishment sets a better narrotive than a mixed raced man fighting against the injustices of a white establishment.
95 “Just think how the Clintons can mess with the minds of Super Delegates etc in making Obama look fallible”
And just think how Obama can mess the minds of Super Delegates about their continued acceptance of racism in America - if they reject him.
Tough call, eh?
98 - For sure, Obama is not as black as some blacks would ideally like but it doesn’t look like they’re holding that against him.
97. Mixed race doesn’t really exist as a category in the US like it does in other countries like the UK.
98. I think black people would accept anyone who chooses to identify as such. Jeremiah Wright is far whiter than Obama!
100. Problem for Obama is he is easy to airbrush from history compared to the Clintons. Obama will just become like Jessie Jackson as another failed black presidential candidate.
The Clintons in comparison have been in the white house for two terms already. Personally i have never been taken in by the Obama hype but their we are!
95 What campaign flaws?
Bill Clinton had an affair, Rudy Giuliani married his cousin and kissed Donald Trump when in drag, McCain embraced HAGEE, Romney forgot where he stood on abortion, Al Gore claimed to have invented the internet, George Allen called someone ‘macaca’ - these are slip-ups.
Going to church for 20 years, and having a preacher who is more polarising on issues than you are is a pretty good ‘flaw’ to have.
O/T - Vote Ken or humanity gets it!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/march2008/ken-livingstone-future-humanity.htm
104. Campaign flaws like alleged Crack Cocaine taking etc.
Link to video of Mr Obama’s speech.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4rba5_obama_news
99. Obama has never claimed there were institutional barriers against him like blacks like Jesse Jackson did. It’s just that in the US you are treated like a black man if you are only half black, so you may as well identify as such. Methinks you are allowing your own prejudice to see the race through a certain lens.
106. Yes, pointing that out worked really well for Clinton last time round didn’t it.
106. At the least i would have expected Obama to say that he moked it but not inhailed it or snorted it but did not let it into his blood stream. Instead alegations have stuck about his alleged penchant for Crack! (Not of the Bill Clinton variety!!!
)
104 - I think it is a flaw to be admitting to gaining spiritual guidance from a race-obsessed, anti-american bigot. If he gains the nomination then he will be swift-boated from here to kingdom come!
Martin, looking at your postings I wonder what ails thee, or are you auditioning for a part in grumpy … men?
Cheer up, be happy
108. I don’t give a monkey’s what colour he is or is not.
You confuse my objections to mass uncontrolled immigration in the UK with general race issue. The two are not the same and i would guess you highlight this yo tarnish my contribution.
If i believed in the white master race i would advocate all that Nazi cr*p but i don’t!
110 I don’t think anyone seriously suggests that Obama is currently a crack cocaine user.
104 I know of a politician who married his step-daughter.
112. I cannot help it - I have become that uptight i have started sh1ting bricks!
104 - He openly admitted taking drugs in his book months before the campaign even started. His campaign has only had these faux-scandals
“Michelle Obama might not have been ‘proud’ of America in her adult life before!”
“Black Preacher who knows Obama gets angry at racism in America!”
“He once lived in Indonesia - maybe he’s a member of Al Quaeda!”
“He’s the ‘wrong sort of black’ for African Americans!”
George W Bush was a crack addict and an alcoholic, his wife accidentally killed her boyfriend, Hillary won’t publish tax returns and had Whitewater to explain but didn’t, McCain was implicated in a corruption trial and accused of having a relationship with a female lobbyist, Spitzer laundered money to pay for prostitutes, Trent Lott was racist - these are proper scandals, and a couple of these guys still survived.
The scandal can hurt if it is serious, or if you handle it badly. Obama’s are not serious, and he is handling them impeccably.
I don’t think that this will help Ken’s re-election. The latest from Gilligan on the £144,000 a year labourers on the underground.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23457466-details/Revealed:+Metronet’s+%C2%A3144,000+a+year+labourers/article.do
OB back to 1.39 on betfair - down 0.02 on the day.
117 - The charge out rates dont seem that unreasonable and Ken (rightly) opposed PPP in the first place, I dont think he should be taking the flak for this (though maybe he will anyway).
113. Frankly, I had no knowledge of your views on immigration. I was just saying that suggesting Obama was running on a “Black against the powerful” ticket suggested your vision of the campaign was tinted with your own beliefs.
116. McCain’s scandals are far less serious than Obama’s (and I don’t think Obama’s are particularly big).
111 - I speak as a practising Catholic, and can honestly claim that I get spiritual guidance from people who (on certain issues) have beliefs that I utterly repudiate.
Even now, the Catholic Church and the majority of its clergy hold homosexuality in disdain, and are condemnatory of extra-marital sex and abortion in terms that I often find repugnant. They ways of expressing that does not harm Catholic candidates - it never hurt Kerry, it doesn’t hurt Catholic Labour MPs, and it won’t hurt Obama - people recognise that those in Holy Orders tend to vocalise views that are not compatible with the more mainstream views of politicians who attend their churches. I still think the net effect of talking about Obama as a long term church-goer who stands by ‘family’ even when disavowing what they say will be positive.
When JFK was elected, the official position of the Catholic Church was that the Jews were (by Mtthew ch 16) collectively responsible for the death of Jesus Christ. If someone had produced an inflammatory quote from a priest of that view at the time, do you think anyone would infer that JFK was anti-semitic?
I reject much of what the Catholic hierarchy in this country says, but still attend, and religious people understand that tension that never quite goes away. Would Obama be better off if Pastor Wright was more moderate - yes. Would it be better if he hadn’t been going to Church for 20 years - absolutely not.
Is this really worth it?
From 24dash.com
Conservative councillor guilty of Slough postal vote fraud
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Local Government on Tuesday 18th March 2008 - 12:43pm
Conservative councillor guilty of Slough postal vote fraud
A Conservative politician was today found guilty of using bogus postal votes to ensure he was voted into office.
Eshaq Khan beat Lydia Simmons, an ex-mayor of Slough in Berkshire and a Labour councillor for 23 years, by 119 votes to win the council’s Central Ward in last year’s local elections.
But a special High Court election court, sitting in Slough, today found Khan and his agents guilty of corrupt and illegal practices in relation to applications for registering to vote and postal voting.
A by-election will now be called in the borough and Khan has been banned by the court from standing again.
Mr Khan and his electoral team were found to have created hundreds of false names in the weeks running up to the May 3 election and entered them on the electoral register for Central Ward.
They then made applications for postal votes for these “ghost voters”
and used the ballots to vote for Mr Khan.
108 - Methinks you haven’t read the story linked to at 96
120 - I meant Keating - that could have been much more serious than anything Obama has faced, as there were accusations of impropriety on the Senator’s part, which Obama hasn’t had, even in Rezco
123 - Methinks it’s the subliminal effect of reading that story as I found myself slipping that word into a comment on a paper I’ve just been passed.
I don’t think Mr Obama’s speech plays as well as it reads. Trying to nuance Rev Wright’s character just brings up a mental picture of the ABC/YouTube clips, and dragging his own grandmother’s social gaffes into it strikes me as extremely poor taste.
Then again, I’m not the target audience.
126. I like the measured tone and taking the issue head on without apologising for his friend. Like SeanT and Andrew Sullivan I am an Obamaniac and I look forward to seeing a McCain/Obama fight.
114 Sean, please could you name names re: 104? Just my prurient curiosity, that’s all.
128. o/t Lloyd George and son’s wife according to one of John Campbell’s books on the Welsh Wizard.
106. Hasn’t harmed Dave Cameron
130 - I think Mike’s lawyers will soon be in touch,
Oooh somebody did drugs at college - OMG !
127 As I say, it reads well. We all have friends and colleagues who may, on occasions, say things we vehemently disagree with. We don’t have to pretend to agree with them, but we shouldn’t cast them away either.
128 I’m afraid not.
131. I said allegations.
122 I don’t know whether it is worth it or not, but it seems to be a Thames Valley phenomenon. A different party has been doing it in Reading for years. See House of Lords Hansards for further details.
121 - “I speak as a practising Catholic, and can honestly claim that I get spiritual guidance from people who (on certain issues) have beliefs that I utterly repudiate.”
Well that’s fine for you and other catholic apologistics…It’s this kind of double-think sentiment that us agnositics and atheists find weird.
130. He said alleged.
135
“A different party has been doing it in Reading for years. See House of Lords Hansards for further details.”
Can you offer a link?
[136] Catholicism - at least in Britain - is largely a “right brain” religion of cultural identification. I’m told by Catholic friends that it’s only a minority of their co-religionists who identify with the official line on matters of sexual morality, or think it important even if they do.
139 - Indeed, they like the smells and bells - doesn make it any less weird looking to an outsider.
138 Sadly, no, not from work, but I recall Lord Greaves (Lib Dem) leading a debate on the subject of electoral fraud round about the time of the Birmingham affair. Redlands Ward in Reading was mentioned in dispatches.
105. oh, ken and his team smearing again, have they worked out that so far all its done is push people TOWARDS Boris!
after reading the report on ken’s launch, it appears to just be one long personal attack on boris!
Watched the speech on youtube. I thought it was pretty good, so it’ll be interesting to see the effect upon the odds and votes.
141
I put the question to Google, and ended up with a Jane Griffiths statement in HoC.
“The findings of the internal audit investigation were given to Thames Valley police, who carried out their own investigation, the outcome of which was a determination that voting fraud had been widespread in Redlands ward, where people had voted either using the identities of people who had moved away, or had invented the identities of people who simply did not exist. It has not been possible for the police to find evidence against any individual, but the fact remains that we are left in a situation that will not inspire confidence in any future election.”
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debate/?id=2005-03-24a.1084.1
140. People like their hobbies. How is it any weirder than stamp collecting or watching the footy? As long as people maintain their independence of mind, I don’t see why agnostics or atheists should care that people go to church.
There’s a YouTube video of the speech on Mr Obama’s website.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBbJv
Just watched the whole speech.
It’s not just a great speech, it’s a defining one for the contest and for the direction of the politics of race in the USA.
“Your dreams do not have to come at the expense of my dreams”.
A simple message but one that the divisive nature of recent US (and not just US) politics has buried deep in the ground.
I have long thought that obama would come under intense political and personal pressure and scrutiny during the summer and autumn (after getting the nomination), leading to a big McCain victory in November. But if this speech doesn’t work, then the whole process might be accelerated early, and maybe Hilllary will get the nomination if a load of pledged elected delegates swing from Obama to Cllinton (never mind the fact that they are bound or pledged to vote or Obama - that is unenforceable).
75 point cut in US - How much here???
One can see that in amongst all the problems of Govt that New Labour has to contend with, you can be sure that they will focus on what really matters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7302566.stm
150 - I don’t think we’ll get one in the UK, at least not until after the summer. Even with rate cut that the Fed did recently the banks didn’t take any notice of it and we’re still lending to each other at the higher rates as they were unsure of the other banks stability. There is a long way to go before this thing plays itself out.
It seems there will be no re-runs in either Michigan or Florida. Suggestions that the delegates will be seated 50:50 - perhaps with the Super-D’s disenfranchised. An all-round bad outcome for Hillary. It puts Obama much nearer to getting the majority of pledged delegates - and less options for Hillary to come back at him.
149
If Hilary wins the nomintaion, hail President McCain.
154. have to agree, she’s sold her soul for the nomination.
I watched the Obama speech this afternoon, came over well to me but perhaps I am biased.
What I have found intetesting is the different coverage, introduction, response and reaction between the BBC and CNN, over the last hour.
The BBC always seems one or two steps behind in reporting the US primaries and reactions, just now thought they were completely outresourced, outgunned in terms of offering views and opinions, and in fact rather I thought offering a pathetic, poor show.
156, the BBC’s grasp of domestic politics is less than stellar, it’d be staggering if their US coverage were any better.
156 - They are underresourced out there, but they also lack affiliation with any of the main American news networks. Sky obviously has Fox and ITV(if they bothered to show any news) are linked with CNN in a content sharing scheme. The BBC carries content from NBC including their nightly news but NBC’s current affairs coverage isn’t that strong either so they really do struggle.
158. MSNBC is the best cable news network for politics.
154. If Clinton gets the nomination the Democrats won’t win the presidency for a generation. African Americans will regard it as a stitchup at the convention to take it away from the talented black guy who won it fairly.
158
The BBC have on the ground (in the US) correspondents..lots of them..
119
So just because Livingstone oppossed the PPP doesn’t mean he can wash his hands of it and just let the council taxpayer be ripped off big time,which is exactly what he has allowed to happen.
Hilary’s supporters continue to barrack Obama, over here as well as over there. It is unfair however (30) for Toynate to describe Mr Partridge (23) as a massive Hilary supporter. Mr P may be many things but a Kevlar buttgirdle he is not!