Is this the most crucial speech of the campaign?
March 18th, 2008
Can the favourite balance the pressures and silence the critics?
At 10.15 ET, 3.15pm in the UK, Barack Obama will rise to make what could be the speech that determines whether he gets the nomination or not. The title “Race, Politics, and Unifying our Country” says it all and all eyes will be on Philadelphia where the event is taking place.
This is how the excellent Politico site is setting the scene: “..He is now facing a full-blown and fast-moving political crisis in which his reputation as a leader with a singular ability to transcend racial divisions and unite Americans is in jeopardy.A convergence of factors — a media firestorm, a Democratic rival eager to exploit his stumbles and, most of all, a Republican opposition eager to rough up the man they expect to face in the general election — have raised the stakes to new heights for Obama with the speech he will deliver..
A successful address would go a long way toward answering Hillary Rodham Clinton’s complaint that Obama has never shown he can handle the rough-and-tumble nature of modern political combat.
A failure could leave many of the white independent voters — a key group behind Obama’s swift rise in national politics — doubting whether he is really the bridge-builder and healer he has portrayed himself to be.”
In the nomination betting Clinton price has tightened a touch and Obama’s has moved out a notch since this blew in the media last week.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
You might be right, how do approach this from a betting point of view?
I hope its a good speech - I’m ball deep in OB.
2 poetic
1 Jonathan. Simple. Wait for our Roger to proclaim and lump in !!
1 If he gives the commanding speech many believe and expect he’s capable of, then you don’t want to be holding a Hillary position. His fumbling this play is perhaps her last realistic chance to question his capability in the Democratic campaign. And even if in reality the speech is so-so, his campaign might still engineer a number of Super-D’s to say “Wow - that answered our questions about his ability!” - and as they line up behind him, the media message will be deviated his way.
New CNN/ORC Presidential Poll :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/18/candidate.poll/index.html
If Obama’s price tightens and Hillary’s eases I will probably put more on her. Anything above 3.1/1 is good value.
Jack W,
You missed off “..in the opposite direction.”
I’ve been out of touch for a few days. Who’s this Rev. Jeremiah Wright character and what’s this ‘media firestorm’?
8 lL. I know what I meant.
Do we know who Obama’s speechwriters are?
re 11. According to this he is writing it himself -
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23685624/
7 Mike, I stll don’t see the “Hillary above 3.1/1 is good value” thing.
Short of Obama coming to the podium, declaring he really IS a Muslim and denouncing Louis Farrakhan as being a wuss, it is truly in the area of special pleading to see Hillary as having a chance. With no re-run in Florida, Obama is now within spitting distance of the majority in pledged delegates. He WILL achieve this - it is mathematically implausible -> impossible for him not to. Hillary will not catch him in the popular vote (not unless you are EXTREMELY selective in the choice of primaries and caucuses you include). He has already won most states, primaries and caucuses, with others a shoo-in.
And the Super-D’s will have to tear the party in two for a generation if they go off in a different direction from the pledged delegates. Even, I would suggest, if Hillary had a sizeable lead in the match-ups against McCain. Which currently she shows no sign of achieving.
That outcome isn’t 3.1/1 - nowhere near.
6 - Once that is added to the RCP average we get:
Obama 45.8 McCain 46
Clinton 47.1 McCain 46.3
So Clinton leads by 0.8 whereas Obama trails by 0.2, not a statistically significant difference but movement from February where Obama did better. This is something to keep an eye on. If Clinton continues to do better than Obama it may affect the voters and the supers.
284 from previous thread… Dont flatter yourself..typical Nulabour delusion…
Though to be fair to Jonathan, Kieran, Hopi Sen and usually Nick P when he’s not spinning) there is a sensible intellectual coherence to their Labourite arguments that means that though personally I disagrre with what they are saying I am always interested in their Labour perspective and I can broadly understand their view point. I think thats very helpful as a Conservative in understanding where Labour are coming from both from a politcial and betting perspective.
Roger is amusing but blinded by partisanship and the rabid Labdem anoraks (you know who you are) are rarely worth listening to at all!
Gwynfa (from previous thread) - nobody could accuse Sean T of being a real human being!
New polling projections in PA. Clinton ahead of Obama.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/18/clinton-ahead-of-obama-in-pennsylvaina-by-1214/
I can’t help feel that this has been a suspiciously good week for Obama - makes me wonder if Pastorgate was strategically planned.
Obama faced certain challenges a couple of weeks ago
- a long time until the Pennsylvania primary that he would probably not win
- the accusation that he is a fairweather candidate, who cannot handle trouble
- shared coverage with Hillary, instead of the solo TV time that McCain is enjoying
- a proportion of the country not convinced that he is not a secret Muslim
- accusations that he is just the ‘black’ candidate - disgusting legwork by Ms Ferraro, but there was a danger that it might have chimed
By having this quasi-scandal - which is nothing more than guilt by association, and not exactly in the Spitzer/Rezko/Clinton league - he has received the support of African Americans who don’t like seeing Pastor Wright villified for speaking plainly about their plight, he has had massive solo TV coverage topped off by today’s self-written speech, he overcomes the idea that crisis-management isn’t his forte, and most importantly he gets to admonish (or at least distance himself) from old style black politicians from ‘another generation’ (Clause IV for African American poitician), and gets most of America talking about the 20 years he spent in the pews at a Christian Church.
This ’scandal’ was never going to engulf his candidacy, especially when the pledged delegate lead and popular vote are looking beyond Hillary, and when he has received the backing of 46 superdelegates in 45 days v her 1 SD. Might not his campaign have torched the ground with a minor scandal for him to play to perfection, and at the same time use the opportunity to reposition himself on race and religious issues, and gain maximum television coverage in an anotherwise fallow period that only helps McCain?
This is likely to be complete nonsense, and I’m reading too much into it, but this is exactly the sort of thing I would expect of top-flight political consultants. If they couldn’t pull risky stunts like this, and get away with it, why would people pay that much for their services. The way Cameron won the Tory leadership, or the other shenanigans that are never reported from political conventions, are barely believable - do we know how this was leaked? Who records a pastor speaking at his church except the faithful. How many people who attend that church are not Obama supporters? Why was it being filmed if not by a member of the congregation - there is nothing criminal, or close to being criminal, in what Pastor Wright says, though much of it I find unfortunate. Someone explain to me how this gets out in the first place…
And now I need to go and talk to the other voices in my head…
Does anyone know if the speech is being streamed live somewhere?
A new PPP Survey for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 56% .. Obama 30%
Looks very sus Obama only polling 63% of black vote !
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_031708.pdf
Arguing that white people invented HIV to kill off black people is up there with David Icke’s lizard people.
Text of speech here..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/18/obama-race-speech-read-t_n_92077.html
Unless Obama does something dramatic during his speech, he is done and dusted. There is no way a Presidential candidate spending twenty years in a church where its main message is “G.d D.mn America” or “9/11 was our fault” can be elected. Obama might manage to steal the nomination by barring the FL re-vote, although it will probably have to be admitted in the end, (and it will give other Super Delegates the excuse they need to vote for Hillary), but he will have to spend a huge amount of time and money defending states such as New Jersey and New York. If he had any honour left he would drop out and prepare for 2012.
19 The embargo on Obama’s speech has been broken - read it here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/18/103320/916/933/479093
This should provoke some serious comment about race in America.
Drudge has the text of the speech.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashos.htm
23 He ain’t going anywhere - except to the White House….
21
Daniel Finkelstien has culled a killer point from a Shelby Steel WSJ article:
“Thus, nothing could be more dangerous to Mr. Obama’s political aspirations than the revelation that he, the son of a white woman, sat Sunday after Sunday — for 20 years — in an Afrocentric, black nationalist church in which his own mother, not to mention other whites, could never feel comfortable. His pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is a challenger who goes far past Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson in his anti-American outrage (”God damn America”).
How does one “transcend” race in this church? The fact is that Barack Obama has fellow-traveled with a hate-filled, anti-American black nationalism all his adult life, failing to stand and challenge an ideology that would have no place for his own mother.”
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/03/every-few-days.html
23. The “main message”? You’ve judged that from a couple of thirty second clips have you?
27. This talk of “hate” is a bit exagerrated. All hate was targeted at institutions like the “USA” or abstract concepts like “white America”. He didn’t call white people devils like Malcolm X.
The speech is live on CNN
23. You really are a Hillary supporter, aren’t you?
23
The speech, as posted by Huffington Post, is a pretty good stab at diffusing ‘the Pastor problem’. It’ll be interesting to see if it moves the polls.
I think that the Northern Rock announcement takes any fig leaf of economic credibility the government had left away. The reason being Billions of pounds from Tax payers money was directed to secure Northern Rock. 2,000 jobs have been announced to be axed today. Given that a buy out by Llyolds TSB would have ended up in a similar outcome - what was the fvcking point!?! The whole UK banking system will lose 10 times the number of jobs that Northern Rock did just because of the destabilising effect of the way Labour have handled it. Livinstone was campaigning about the London Financial Services today but failed to mention that his Labour Government is directly responsible for destabilising the City of London.
If i were Boris Johnson i would highlight the fact that Londoners are paying not only the Financial Bill for Labours incomptence with Northern Rock but Labour are also forfieting many jobs in London to save votes for Labour MP’s in the North East.
32. Livingstone has also got FVck all top do with Financial Service Regulation or for that matter Crossrail.
Seems like a pretty highbrow speech - will therefore be reduced to a soundbite of “race pastor is “family “”
27. Read the Obama speech. It’s good. Rather brave in fact. He could have disowned the pastor entirely, instead he condemns him - but puts it in context. As he says, you do have to remember that blacks of the previous generation - like the pastor - can personally remember Jim Crow laws.
That does explain a certain level of deep-rooted anger. If I could personally remember a time when blacks ran my country in an explicitly racist fashion, and there were signs saying No Whites in restaurants, I’m not sure I’d ever get over the resentment. I’d probably still be seething. I’d maybe want revenge.
Obama really is the most interesting candidate for the American presidency in my lifetime. And possibly the most thoughtful. But I think this whole episode will still damage him.
21 - I agree Sean, I found Pastor Wright extremely unsavoury, but you can see this working for him both ways.
African Americans who doubted he was one of them get to see that Church he attended for 20 years (which also quells the Muslim nonsense), whereas whites who are unnerved by it get to see that he is prepared to admonish the ‘old generation’ and move America beyond the confrontation that marked its race relations in the past. This is his chance to be all things to all men if he pulls it off.
23 - Matthew, how is this a scandal? Nothing criminal, nothing remotely salacious - black pastor angry at USA for racism? In other news Pope ‘may be Catholic’. Hagee is far more damaging to McCain in terms of actually losing votes than Wright is to Obama. At the end of the day, its going to be difficult for the GOP or Hillary to attack Wright without looking like they’re bringing up race again. I think it more likely that he staged this ‘controversy’ than that it costs him either the nomination or the election.
32 - Martin, why should Ken be blamed for national politics? Everyone knows he doesn’t take orders from Downing St, so Northern Rock has nothing to do with it. On the other hand, can we be sure that Boris would be ‘independent’ from Cameron?
35
“He could have disowned the pastor entirely”
I don’t think he could, he’s been attending his church for 20 years, it’s too long an association.
The speech (I read the Huffington post version) is certainly a very good attempt to deal with this, but the Pastor Wright stuff is in talking pictures on YouTube. It’s a toughie.
35 I think it reads well.
In the scenario you describe, I think resentment would be natural, but not the degree of loopiness that Wright has expressed.
35: Truest thing seanT has ever said!
BO moved from 1.41 to 1.38 since the speech started.
35. I know a professor who has done a lot of work in Africa. He once told me that the USA was the only country in the world where the descendants of slaves had to live side by side with the descendants of slaveowners, on the latter’s terms.
I’m sure someone here will now point out examples to show that to be incorrect, but it sure gave me a new understanding of how the USA must look to an African-American.
41. 1.37 …
39. We also have to remember how insane many religious Americans seem to us - Evolution denialists, weird-pant-wearing Mormons, Pat Robinson with his “lesb1ans caused Katrina” etc.
There is a context for all American religiosity, which allows a lot of stuff which we would find quite barmy.
Wright is, arguably, just an angry black version of that. Doesn’t make him excusable, but again its a question of context. Millions of Americans hear mad stuff from their pastors every Sunday, and they don’t bat an eyelid.
41 - Shift to Obama on Intrade as well
42
“He once told me that the USA was the only country in the world where the descendants of slaves had to live side by side with the descendants of slaveowners, on the latter’s terms.”
Given that slavery has been an economic model used by societies/cultures on every continent, I find that assertion rather difficult to take seriously.
39. Clearly the AIDS thing is loopy, but you’d be surprised at how easily we believe completely unevidenced claims when it fits with our own ideology. Free marketeers refusing to accept global warming, despite statements put out by every major academy of scientists, is one I see frequently on here.
46. I guess he meant descendants of slavery who were conscious of that fact as an ethnic group.
“Free marketeers refusing to accept global warming”…
*Some* free marketeers.
is Anthony Minghella’s death really that important? To his family and people he knew, yes but I don’t think it’s worth all the time the BBC are devoting to it.
I havent taken must interest in the details of the US campaign before today, but the news about this item made me put it on the TV and watch Obama live for the first time ever. I am bowled over. He comes across as so genuine. If I’m not unusual, then this is the first time many people have heard Obama, and they have just seen him step up to the mark and prove he’s got what it takes to unify people. I think today helps him, especially the exposure.
42,48 That would be true of a lot of South America, also.
And I would guess more white people emigrated to the US after the abolition of slavery than before.
50. Is he not directing some mini series on at Easter ? The Zimbabwe no1 ladies PI firm - or some such tosh ?
53. If it was scheduled to be on the BBC then no wonder they’re going on about it. A few more Eastenders repeats instead I guess
48
“I guess he meant descendants of slavery who were conscious of that fact as an ethnic group.”
Given the high level of immigration to the USA in the 20th Century, principally economic migrants, is that an accurate picture?
52. Probably true of places like Sudan also. Haven’t most of the South American political systems been written with significant input from minority ethnic groups?
But regardless of the technical truth, it still gives you a certain understanding: The US political system was written by a slaveowning class, and has continued in pretty much the same form as an unbroken line since then. If your ethnic group were the slaves during that time, you probably wouldn’t think too highly of that political system.
LOL @ Matthew Partridge! I see Mr “Iraq is a vote winner” is still at it…
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 48% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 48% .. Obama 42%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
54….
He has also directed a TV episode of book The No 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency, due to be screened this Easter.
A 90-minute pilot, directed by Minghella and co-written with Richard Curtis, is due to be broadcast on BBC One.
re 17 Your views on this are as credible as your “processing” of opinion poll numbers.
60.
And I suppose your views are better then?
Can’t see the delivery; TV here at the cottage in Florida is a hit and miss affair. We don’t have cable so cannot see the important stuff and only have dial-up or as I prefer to call it, steam internet.
Obama’s speech reads really well. I guess we have to remember that the people who needed to hear this speech to change their minds is a tiny percentage. Many will react only to TV media coverage. And for the rest the speech will enhance their strongly held views of the Senator.
The news media will move on; they always do. H Rodham Clinton’s tax returns will be big news when she finally gets round to releasing them. And then the media hasn’t even begun to look at McCain; he’s had a free pass so far. His base is built on shifting sands and may wobble a little when his voting record is scrutanised. He can’t have both the anti-immigration conservatives and the Hispanic vote; he will need to decide, and whatever he decides will harm him.
So interesting times ahead. Obama has the delegates, Clinton the kitchen sink, sceptic tank and poo-filled toilet and McCain has George W Bush.
Malcolm
56. Good point. It must be very difficult for US blacks to hear the Founding Fathers of America praised, continuously, almost to the point of beatification. And yet these same wonderful men were slave owners.
Put it another way: the people who wrote the Constitution, with all its highflown rhetoric about liberty and equality, bought and sold blacks.
If I was a black man in America, that alone might give me very ambivalent feelings about my country.
And then there’s Abraham Lincoln. Some of his views on blacks are almost unprintably racist.
56 The Spanish tended to intermarry with the South American Indians to a considerable extent, but large numbers of them were kept as forced labourers. And almost all of South America’s black population (mainly in Brazil) are the descendants of slaves.
I have to say, I’m not sure how I’d feel if I came from an ethnic group that had been enslaved, in this country, up until 140 years ago. I probably could not feel too much pride in my country’s history, up to that point, but would probably appreciate current opportunities. I doubt if I would naturally identify with people who were opposed to my country in this day and age. My feelings would be even more ambiguous if I was descended both from slaveowner and slave.
60. Mike is this bloke trying to steal all your ideas?
His site looks like an exact copy.
“And then there’s Abraham Lincoln. Some of his views on blacks are almost unprintably racist.”
But, he also did a lot of good for them.
42
“He once told me that the USA was the only country in the world where the descendants of slaves had to live side by side with the descendants of slaveowners, on the latter’s terms.”
That professor had never gone to South Africa, Zimbabwe where even after the removal of legal discrimination the former slaveowners still owned the farms on which the slaves worked.
Also in many Far East countries: eg Saudi.. where slaves in essence still exist.
64. On the point about slaveowner/slave, why is Obama always categorised as black? He is quite clearly a man of mixed race. i realise he has married a black woman, but who would/wouldn’t like him to be referred to as mixed race.
67. Yes yes yes… but America was the slave-owning country par excellence. Its early economy was basically founded on slavery. It probably absorbed more slaves than anywhere else. The slaves had to go further and were probably worse treated than most places - just think of the Middle Passage.
And the Constitution was written by slaveowners. And they also fought an enormous civil war on slavery. Hundreds of thousands of American men died to DEFEND the institution of slavery.
Slavery and its legacy defines America in a way it doesn’t define any other country on earth.
65: Partridge’s site has been set up as a Labour leaning “PB.com” clone to try to astro-turf key events as they come up.
Just browsed the Spectators Americano mini-site, looking for some post-match analysis of Mr Obama’s speech, and noticed they have a posting on a five minute YouTube biog/advert for Mr McCain’s campaign.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/americano/558916/how-mccain-wants-to-define-his-candidacy.thtml
Do companies produce five minute long adverts, for internet advertising? Just idle curiosity on my part.
PS For a long time Partridge was considered to be a spoof poster! He kept on about how Iraq was winning huge amounts of votes among the masses. Now he’s back and he’s been polished
67. He told me at a time after which time South Africa and Zimbabwe were operating under black rule.
All this says to me is that at some point both communities in the USA need to work out that keep dredging up centuries of history is not conducive to building a future. It would be rather like the UK refusing to have anything to do with Scandinavia because of Viking raids. Admittedly there are still huge tensions but a lot of that is because history is forever recycled.
69 And many thousands died to end it.
The other side of the coin is that white people whose ancestors had nothing to do with slavery (except in very ancient times) are almost certainly bound to resent being held in some way responsible for it.
74
“It would be rather like the UK refusing to have anything to do with Scandinavia because of Viking raids”
The welsh still haven’t forgiven the anglo-saxons.
I’ve just read Obama’s speech (haven’t watched the footage), and I think it’s good - very good, even. In theory, it should be good enough to get him through this crisis and perhaps even draw him new supporters, as people realise that the views of Pastor Wright are not his own and hear of his hopeful vision for America.
In practice though, I don’t know if that’s the case. The damage has already been done; some people will have heard this speech, but many more will simply remember Obama’s association with a radical black preacher and hold it against him in November. That may be unfair, but that’s politics. With the absence of the Florida delegates, Obama should be able to win the Democratic nomination; but I fear that this pastor row has seriously damaged his chances of winning the Presidency.
And on 68: “why is Obama always categorised as black? He is quite clearly a man of mixed race.”
It most likely comes down to the history of race in the US, where historically, anyone with any black ancestors at all was characterised as ‘black’, regardless of how many white ancestors they had or what their skin colour actually looked like. (Known as the ‘One Drop Rule’ - the idea that one drop of ‘black blood’ makes someone black.) Despite the unpleasant subtext of this idea, to some extent it still affects American attitudes today.
Andrew Sullivan’s response to the speech.
“Alas, I cannot give a more considered response right now as I have to get on the road. But I do want to say that this searing, nuanced, gut-wrenching, loyal, and deeply, deeply Christian speech is the most honest speech on race in America in my adult lifetime. It is a speech we have all been waiting for for a generation. Its ability to embrace both the legitimate fears and resentments of whites and the understandable anger and dashed hopes of many blacks was, in my view, unique in recent American history.
And it was a reflection of faith - deep, hopeful, transcending faith in the promises of the Gospels. And it was about America - its unique promise, its historic purpose, and our duty to take up the burden to perfect this union - today, in our time, in our way.
I have never felt more convinced that this man’s candidacy - not this man, his candidacy - and what he can bring us to achieve - is an historic opportunity. This was a testing; and he did not merely pass it by uttering safe bromides. He addressed the intimate, painful love he has for an imperfect and sometimes embittered man. And how that love enables him to see that man’s faults and pain as well as his promise. This is what my faith is about. It is what the Gospels are about. This is a candidate who does not merely speak as a Christian. He acts like a Christian.
Bill Clinton once said that everything bad in America can be rectified by what is good in America. He was right - and Obama takes that to a new level. And does it with the deepest darkest wound in this country’s history.
I love this country. I don’t remember loving it or hoping more from it than today.”
I presume Mike in his title refers to the Presidential campaign as the nomation process is all but over. As such, it is a challenge to McCain to respond on similar matters. Or does McCain plan to ignore the race/religion issue that he sought to profit from?
It is interesting to note that both SeanT and Andrew Sullivan, both on the libertarian right, are so positive about Obama.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/the-speech.html
74. Yes. And maybe the best way for this poisonous legacy to be finally overcome is for Americans TO ELECT A BLACK PRESIDENT.
Nothing, but nothing, would do more to heal the racial wounds than an Obama presidency. People can say it is just “symbolic” but sometimes symbols are exactly what you need.
Voting Obama IS the way for America to move on.
And it’s not like Obama is some empty vessel, either. He is a seriously impressive role model, too - a Harvard scholar of notable eloquence and deep intelligence.
How Fox News is reporting it:
Obama Condemns Pastor, But Won’t ‘Disown Him’
In major speech on race, Dem hopeful again condemns Rev. Wright’s incendiary sermons, but defends their relationship and his continued membership in church.
Unbelievable!
“It most likely comes down to the history of race in the US, where historically, anyone with any black ancestors at all was characterised as ‘black’, regardless of how many white ancestors they had or what their skin colour actually looked like. (Known as the ‘One Drop Rule’ - the idea that one drop of ‘black blood’ makes someone black.) Despite the unpleasant subtext of this idea, to some extent it still affects American attitudes today.
”
It’s certainly a curious feature of racial prejudice that people could be deemed “black” because they had one black great-great grandparent, yet others could be deemd “white” despite having much more recent black anestry.
70, One thing that is not copied on his site is the number of comments per thread.
No wonder he spends so much time hanging around here,
82. Let’s leave the poor guy alone! He maybe hugely mistaken on a range of issues, but I think he’s honest in his beliefs, and he’s got as much right to post here and run his own blog as anyone else.
83. What happened to Benedict White ?
83 I agree.
Obama now back up to 75 with Intrade
83. Very well said…I agree entirely..
86. Which way is that on the movement front ?
“Obama should be able to win the Democratic nomination; but I fear that this pastor row has seriously damaged his chances of winning the Presidency.”
That’s something the Hillary team will have to live with for stirring up the story.
Socrates: What Fox are doing is not unbelievable at all. They fear Obama. They know they can destroy Hillary later.
83. I agree, lots of us post here so people might click their names. (not I)
Where can I see the speech?
80.”Obama Condemns Pastor, But Won’t ‘Disown Him’
In major speech on race, Dem hopeful again condemns Rev. Wright’s incendiary sermons, but defends their relationship and his continued membership in church.”
Bill O’Reilly made a good point recently, he said that McCain would have a good message to sell, but that it would not be listened too.
I don’t often comment about the American Presidential race, instead I prefer to read the comments of those who are much better informed than I am on PB.com.
But I listened to the Obama speech today and thought that he came across as unifying candidate in a way that neither Clinton or McCain could. He may have been addressing the concerns expressed over the Pastor’s comments, but he was also appealing to a wide range of voters both Democrat and Republican.
92. I agree with that too..I am utterly convinced that Obama as President would make both the US and the world a safer place..youthful naievity I am sure but having just read the speech it is clear he is something different…why wont the witch just accept the inevitable and bow out..she increasingly looks like yesterday’s news (comparison with Broon is obvious).
81. I think the purpose of the one drop rule was the concern that descendants of slaves might be able to vote - with sympathy towards slaves.
Obama is not going to win. It is pretty obvious that he is knackered. Just think how the Clintons can mess with the minds of Super Delegates etc in making Obama look fallible to all sorts of campaign flaws. Obama should be asking whether he can leave the race and save his face: Yes we Can
Daily Mash’s take on inflation numbers:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/monocle-grease-and-penny-farthing-oil-removed-from-inflation-basket-20080318804/
Not convinced. Methinks.
68 - “but who would/wouldn’t like him to be referred to as mixed race.”
A friend who has read Obama’s autobio tells me that he made a distinct choice to identify himself as black person. As a mixed race person myself I instinctively dislike his mixed race heritage being underplayed but it seems that’s the way he want’s it.
So, how do blacks feel about the ‘one drop rule’. Are they happy for Obama to be termed ‘black’ all the time?
97. Its all about image and how it goes down in the media.
A Black man fighting against the injustice of a white establishment sets a better narrotive than a mixed raced man fighting against the injustices of a white establishment.
95 “Just think how the Clintons can mess with the minds of Super Delegates etc in making Obama look fallible”
And just think how Obama can mess the minds of Super Delegates about their continued acceptance of racism in America - if they reject him.
Tough call, eh?
98 - For sure, Obama is not as black as some blacks would ideally like but it doesn’t look like they’re holding that against him.
97. Mixed race doesn’t really exist as a category in the US like it does in other countries like the UK.
98. I think black people would accept anyone who chooses to identify as such. Jeremiah Wright is far whiter than Obama!
100. Problem for Obama is he is easy to airbrush from history compared to the Clintons. Obama will just become like Jessie Jackson as another failed black presidential candidate.
The Clintons in comparison have been in the white house for two terms already. Personally i have never been taken in by the Obama hype but their we are!
95 What campaign flaws?
Bill Clinton had an affair, Rudy Giuliani married his cousin and kissed Donald Trump when in drag, McCain embraced HAGEE, Romney forgot where he stood on abortion, Al Gore claimed to have invented the internet, George Allen called someone ‘macaca’ - these are slip-ups.
Going to church for 20 years, and having a preacher who is more polarising on issues than you are is a pretty good ‘flaw’ to have.
O/T - Vote Ken or humanity gets it!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/march2008/ken-livingstone-future-humanity.htm
104. Campaign flaws like alleged Crack Cocaine taking etc.
Link to video of Mr Obama’s speech.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4rba5_obama_news
99. Obama has never claimed there were institutional barriers against him like blacks like Jesse Jackson did. It’s just that in the US you are treated like a black man if you are only half black, so you may as well identify as such. Methinks you are allowing your own prejudice to see the race through a certain lens.
106. Yes, pointing that out worked really well for Clinton last time round didn’t it.
106. At the least i would have expected Obama to say that he moked it but not inhailed it or snorted it but did not let it into his blood stream. Instead alegations have stuck about his alleged penchant for Crack! (Not of the Bill Clinton variety!!!
)
104 - I think it is a flaw to be admitting to gaining spiritual guidance from a race-obsessed, anti-american bigot. If he gains the nomination then he will be swift-boated from here to kingdom come!
Martin, looking at your postings I wonder what ails thee, or are you auditioning for a part in grumpy … men?
Cheer up, be happy
108. I don’t give a monkey’s what colour he is or is not.
You confuse my objections to mass uncontrolled immigration in the UK with general race issue. The two are not the same and i would guess you highlight this yo tarnish my contribution.
If i believed in the white master race i would advocate all that Nazi cr*p but i don’t!
110 I don’t think anyone seriously suggests that Obama is currently a crack cocaine user.
104 I know of a politician who married his step-daughter.
112. I cannot help it - I have become that uptight i have started sh1ting bricks!
104 - He openly admitted taking drugs in his book months before the campaign even started. His campaign has only had these faux-scandals
“Michelle Obama might not have been ‘proud’ of America in her adult life before!”
“Black Preacher who knows Obama gets angry at racism in America!”
“He once lived in Indonesia - maybe he’s a member of Al Quaeda!”
“He’s the ‘wrong sort of black’ for African Americans!”
George W Bush was a crack addict and an alcoholic, his wife accidentally killed her boyfriend, Hillary won’t publish tax returns and had Whitewater to explain but didn’t, McCain was implicated in a corruption trial and accused of having a relationship with a female lobbyist, Spitzer laundered money to pay for prostitutes, Trent Lott was racist - these are proper scandals, and a couple of these guys still survived.
The scandal can hurt if it is serious, or if you handle it badly. Obama’s are not serious, and he is handling them impeccably.
I don’t think that this will help Ken’s re-election. The latest from Gilligan on the £144,000 a year labourers on the underground.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23457466-details/Revealed:+Metronet’s+%C2%A3144,000+a+year+labourers/article.do
OB back to 1.39 on betfair - down 0.02 on the day.
117 - The charge out rates dont seem that unreasonable and Ken (rightly) opposed PPP in the first place, I dont think he should be taking the flak for this (though maybe he will anyway).
113. Frankly, I had no knowledge of your views on immigration. I was just saying that suggesting Obama was running on a “Black against the powerful” ticket suggested your vision of the campaign was tinted with your own beliefs.
116. McCain’s scandals are far less serious than Obama’s (and I don’t think Obama’s are particularly big).
111 - I speak as a practising Catholic, and can honestly claim that I get spiritual guidance from people who (on certain issues) have beliefs that I utterly repudiate.
Even now, the Catholic Church and the majority of its clergy hold homosexuality in disdain, and are condemnatory of extra-marital sex and abortion in terms that I often find repugnant. They ways of expressing that does not harm Catholic candidates - it never hurt Kerry, it doesn’t hurt Catholic Labour MPs, and it won’t hurt Obama - people recognise that those in Holy Orders tend to vocalise views that are not compatible with the more mainstream views of politicians who attend their churches. I still think the net effect of talking about Obama as a long term church-goer who stands by ‘family’ even when disavowing what they say will be positive.
When JFK was elected, the official position of the Catholic Church was that the Jews were (by Mtthew ch 16) collectively responsible for the death of Jesus Christ. If someone had produced an inflammatory quote from a priest of that view at the time, do you think anyone would infer that JFK was anti-semitic?
I reject much of what the Catholic hierarchy in this country says, but still attend, and religious people understand that tension that never quite goes away. Would Obama be better off if Pastor Wright was more moderate - yes. Would it be better if he hadn’t been going to Church for 20 years - absolutely not.
Is this really worth it?
From 24dash.com
Conservative councillor guilty of Slough postal vote fraud
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Local Government on Tuesday 18th March 2008 - 12:43pm
Conservative councillor guilty of Slough postal vote fraud
A Conservative politician was today found guilty of using bogus postal votes to ensure he was voted into office.
Eshaq Khan beat Lydia Simmons, an ex-mayor of Slough in Berkshire and a Labour councillor for 23 years, by 119 votes to win the council’s Central Ward in last year’s local elections.
But a special High Court election court, sitting in Slough, today found Khan and his agents guilty of corrupt and illegal practices in relation to applications for registering to vote and postal voting.
A by-election will now be called in the borough and Khan has been banned by the court from standing again.
Mr Khan and his electoral team were found to have created hundreds of false names in the weeks running up to the May 3 election and entered them on the electoral register for Central Ward.
They then made applications for postal votes for these “ghost voters”
and used the ballots to vote for Mr Khan.
108 - Methinks you haven’t read the story linked to at 96
120 - I meant Keating - that could have been much more serious than anything Obama has faced, as there were accusations of impropriety on the Senator’s part, which Obama hasn’t had, even in Rezco
123 - Methinks it’s the subliminal effect of reading that story as I found myself slipping that word into a comment on a paper I’ve just been passed.
I don’t think Mr Obama’s speech plays as well as it reads. Trying to nuance Rev Wright’s character just brings up a mental picture of the ABC/YouTube clips, and dragging his own grandmother’s social gaffes into it strikes me as extremely poor taste.
Then again, I’m not the target audience.
126. I like the measured tone and taking the issue head on without apologising for his friend. Like SeanT and Andrew Sullivan I am an Obamaniac and I look forward to seeing a McCain/Obama fight.
114 Sean, please could you name names re: 104? Just my prurient curiosity, that’s all.
128. o/t Lloyd George and son’s wife according to one of John Campbell’s books on the Welsh Wizard.
106. Hasn’t harmed Dave Cameron
130 - I think Mike’s lawyers will soon be in touch,
Oooh somebody did drugs at college - OMG !
127 As I say, it reads well. We all have friends and colleagues who may, on occasions, say things we vehemently disagree with. We don’t have to pretend to agree with them, but we shouldn’t cast them away either.
128 I’m afraid not.
131. I said allegations.
122 I don’t know whether it is worth it or not, but it seems to be a Thames Valley phenomenon. A different party has been doing it in Reading for years. See House of Lords Hansards for further details.
121 - “I speak as a practising Catholic, and can honestly claim that I get spiritual guidance from people who (on certain issues) have beliefs that I utterly repudiate.”
Well that’s fine for you and other catholic apologistics…It’s this kind of double-think sentiment that us agnositics and atheists find weird.
130. He said alleged.
135
“A different party has been doing it in Reading for years. See House of Lords Hansards for further details.”
Can you offer a link?
[136] Catholicism - at least in Britain - is largely a “right brain” religion of cultural identification. I’m told by Catholic friends that it’s only a minority of their co-religionists who identify with the official line on matters of sexual morality, or think it important even if they do.
139 - Indeed, they like the smells and bells - doesn make it any less weird looking to an outsider.
138 Sadly, no, not from work, but I recall Lord Greaves (Lib Dem) leading a debate on the subject of electoral fraud round about the time of the Birmingham affair. Redlands Ward in Reading was mentioned in dispatches.
105. oh, ken and his team smearing again, have they worked out that so far all its done is push people TOWARDS Boris!
after reading the report on ken’s launch, it appears to just be one long personal attack on boris!
Watched the speech on youtube. I thought it was pretty good, so it’ll be interesting to see the effect upon the odds and votes.
141
I put the question to Google, and ended up with a Jane Griffiths statement in HoC.
“The findings of the internal audit investigation were given to Thames Valley police, who carried out their own investigation, the outcome of which was a determination that voting fraud had been widespread in Redlands ward, where people had voted either using the identities of people who had moved away, or had invented the identities of people who simply did not exist. It has not been possible for the police to find evidence against any individual, but the fact remains that we are left in a situation that will not inspire confidence in any future election.”
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debate/?id=2005-03-24a.1084.1
140. People like their hobbies. How is it any weirder than stamp collecting or watching the footy? As long as people maintain their independence of mind, I don’t see why agnostics or atheists should care that people go to church.
There’s a YouTube video of the speech on Mr Obama’s website.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBbJv
Just watched the whole speech.
It’s not just a great speech, it’s a defining one for the contest and for the direction of the politics of race in the USA.
“Your dreams do not have to come at the expense of my dreams”.
A simple message but one that the divisive nature of recent US (and not just US) politics has buried deep in the ground.
I have long thought that obama would come under intense political and personal pressure and scrutiny during the summer and autumn (after getting the nomination), leading to a big McCain victory in November. But if this speech doesn’t work, then the whole process might be accelerated early, and maybe Hilllary will get the nomination if a load of pledged elected delegates swing from Obama to Cllinton (never mind the fact that they are bound or pledged to vote or Obama - that is unenforceable).
75 point cut in US - How much here???
One can see that in amongst all the problems of Govt that New Labour has to contend with, you can be sure that they will focus on what really matters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7302566.stm
150 - I don’t think we’ll get one in the UK, at least not until after the summer. Even with rate cut that the Fed did recently the banks didn’t take any notice of it and we’re still lending to each other at the higher rates as they were unsure of the other banks stability. There is a long way to go before this thing plays itself out.
It seems there will be no re-runs in either Michigan or Florida. Suggestions that the delegates will be seated 50:50 - perhaps with the Super-D’s disenfranchised. An all-round bad outcome for Hillary. It puts Obama much nearer to getting the majority of pledged delegates - and less options for Hillary to come back at him.
149
If Hilary wins the nomintaion, hail President McCain.
154. have to agree, she’s sold her soul for the nomination.
I watched the Obama speech this afternoon, came over well to me but perhaps I am biased.
What I have found intetesting is the different coverage, introduction, response and reaction between the BBC and CNN, over the last hour.
The BBC always seems one or two steps behind in reporting the US primaries and reactions, just now thought they were completely outresourced, outgunned in terms of offering views and opinions, and in fact rather I thought offering a pathetic, poor show.
156, the BBC’s grasp of domestic politics is less than stellar, it’d be staggering if their US coverage were any better.
156 - They are underresourced out there, but they also lack affiliation with any of the main American news networks. Sky obviously has Fox and ITV(if they bothered to show any news) are linked with CNN in a content sharing scheme. The BBC carries content from NBC including their nightly news but NBC’s current affairs coverage isn’t that strong either so they really do struggle.
158. MSNBC is the best cable news network for politics.
154. If Clinton gets the nomination the Democrats won’t win the presidency for a generation. African Americans will regard it as a stitchup at the convention to take it away from the talented black guy who won it fairly.
158
The BBC have on the ground (in the US) correspondents..lots of them..
119
So just because Livingstone oppossed the PPP doesn’t mean he can wash his hands of it and just let the council taxpayer be ripped off big time,which is exactly what he has allowed to happen.
Hilary’s supporters continue to barrack Obama, over here as well as over there. It is unfair however (30) for Toynate to describe Mr Partridge (23) as a massive Hilary supporter. Mr P may be many things but a Kevlar buttgirdle he is not!
121/149> I think at most times the majority of catholics adapt the values of the society around them, with only a small minority sticking closely to the church’s teachings. Goebbels’ diaries contain loads of remarks about how the majority of catholics were ‘decent germans’ with only the priests and a few clericist types being the problem.
O/T - This won’t help Ken.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/03/electoral-commi.html
Kens next assertion will be that the Olympics will be cancelled if Boris gets in.
Now that could be a vote winner for Boris.
Barack Obama has proven he has metal and grit. I already liked him and his speech today has strengthened that. The world needs an Obama victory this November.
165
I must admit I was wrong. I thought Boris would be a disaster. It would appear I am not the only one to misjudge him.
Mine is an error Full Stop. It would appear Ken L did the same. That would appear to be a major error of judgement.
I heard him (BorisJ) interviewed yesterday. He appeared sane an dlucid. Most unusuall. I was impressed in spite of myself.
There’s a survey on MSNBC on whether Obama’s speech was successful. Although not scientific, there have been almost 105k ‘votes’ and 67% say it was :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23691276/
Is this how we should have elections? Through “blanket” primaries?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2008/03/scotus_surprises_wa_parties.html
You may ahve seen Anthony Well’s update on ICM - but it is quite interesting after what Mike said about the effect of adjustments on the last Populus.
The ’spiral of silence’ effect helped Labour alot. The unadjusted figures show a 15 point gap.
‘UPDATE: Tables now up on ICM’s website here. The difference between the lead here and the lead in YouGov’s poll was actually mostly down to ICM’s topline adjustment for the “spiral of silence” - the theory that some people who say don’t know are actually supporters of an unpopular party who are too bashful to admit it to the interviewer. While people still refer to this an as adjustment to make up for “shy Tories”, for the past five years at least it’s normally favoured “shy Labourites”. This month ICM’s unadjusted figures would have been CON 43%, LAB 28%, LDEM 21%.’
..
obviously hard to tell from across the atlantic, but it seems like clinton and mccain are just being totally shut out of this news cycle? i think obama is going to get a boost from all this in the next few days in the polls.
the main feedback i’m seeing is that it was an intelectually great speech, which i interperet to mean it will be a hit with the superdelegates but not so great amongst the white working class democrats. again not sure how that will effect the race, probably hurts obama in PY but what about the following races?
171 Yes the detailed ICM data in the 2 ICM polls is pretty consistent . Both polls show LibDems in 2nd place above Labour in the South of England . This is the major difference with Yougov who had LibDems on just 15% in the South but ICM have them at 24 and 27% in their 2 polls . The other 2 regions are not that divergent within expected MofE
169
I’m not very up on USA media, but my impression is that MSNBC (Olberman ‘comments’) is a bit of a ‘leftie’, so is 67% positive amongst lefties good, or bad? Angels, pinheads, arrgh.
Hello all.
A Michigan re-do is off;
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Michian_redo_on_the_ropes.html
And we already know a Florida re-do is off..
And the speech was great….
And the supers keep coming for Obama…
Who cares about PA now?
Last chance to back BHO at this price?
FTSE up over 3 1/2% today Dow up over 3% , gold down , Conservative doomsters all silent .
yep because the economy is fine and the Libdems are ahead of labour in the south so what why would we want to put our heads above the parapet?
176. so the emergency interest rate cut by the fed due to a collapsing economy has nothing to with todays rise? your comments on the economy are beyond a joke. you are truly detached from reality
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/18/a_mccain_gaffe_in_jordan.html
“Sen. John McCain, traveling in the Middle East to promote his foreign policy expertise, misidentified in remarks Tuesday which broad category of Iraqi extremists are allegedly receiving support from Iran.
He said several times that Iran, a predominately Shiite country, was supplying the mostly Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda…
McCain said he and two Senate colleagues traveling with him continue to be concerned about Iranian operatives “taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back.”
Pressed to elaborate, McCain said it was “common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that’s well known. And it’s unfortunate.” A few moments later, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, standing just behind McCain, stepped forward and whispered in the presidential candidate’s ear. McCain then said: “I’m sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda.” “
Michigan vote off:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/more_on_imminent_death_of_mich.php
Start backing Obama heavily.
“Our first thought was that it was pretty low of Obama to exploit his (still living) grandmother in this way. Is it really necessary for the whole world to know about her private expressions of prejudice? Doesn’t simple decency dictate that a public figure treat embarrassing facts about loved ones with discretion?
Obama was trying to accomplish something very specific by dragging his “white grandmother” into this political mess.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/best_of_the_web_today.html
I think the WSJ is a Republican leaning newspaper, so you would expect them to be ‘anti’ Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton, but this public labelling of his grandmother as a racist on TV struck me as being very poor form too.
Real Clear Politics has some post-speech links now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
178 - The market is still basically ursine in nature, the down trajectory is likely to be resumed. Confidence is gone, it doesn’t come back with 3% rises… Plus if you think that the only thing to play in an economy is the leading stock index then you are seriously deluded.
174. MSNBC has at least two anchors who are former GOP men. It’s moderately to the left, but it’s not seen as dramatically so, a la NYT or CNN.
176 Mark. No Tory wants thing to go belly up.
I have a feeling if the Tories were in power, you WOULD be willing to sacrifice UK PLC for political ends.
I hope I am wrong.
If am am not, I’d rather not know.
[Have lovely Lib Dem friends who are not that bitter or stupid].
181. He was basically saying that legitimate concerns cause both blacks and whites to have prejudices that were worsening the situation. The WSJ has lost all respect these days.
HC moving in on betfair if anything to 3.6.
BO 1.39.
176 “FTSE up over 3 1/2% today Dow up over 3% , gold down , Conservative doomsters all silent .”
Its known as a dead cat bounce.
Day to day fluctuations aren’t relevent, it is the mid-long term that is important. Remember Northern Rock.
But why am I telling a leftie…of the Labour Undead. They just want to consume my brains, my time and my bandwidth.
139 I’m told by Catholic friends that it’s only a minority of their co-religionists who identify with the official line on matters of sexual morality, or think it important even if they do.
I am told by a Catholic that Abortion is pretty much murder of a baby by its own mother. Seems that bit isnt negotiable.
Although some people are prepared to use Catholacism for their own ends…the pro-Abortion Cherie Blair for example…she of the ugly face & fake tears.
178 Strangely no , the immediate reaction to the lower than expected rise was a fall in the Dow but it recovered pretty quickly .
182 You should explain that to the Conservative posters on here who were greeting every fall in the indices with rapture .
185
I think he could have found a way to say that without calling his grandmother a racist.
186) Harry Flash - be aware I saw Obama trade as high as 1.46 on betfair this morning and I backed him a little yesterday @ 1.44. Given he’s touched 1.39 today I think we have a clear direction post speech/michigan…
176. Mark what is your assessment of the current economic situation?
189. If you aren’t planning to retire soon then your pension fund being topped up with cheap shares is a cause for celebration.
Also if you are shorting shares - its a good thing.
190. He didn’t call his grandmother a racist. He said she was “a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.”
Hardly painting her as David Duke.
191. Thanks - 1.39 seems to be the floor - with Florida/Mich being cancelled I would think it should be 1.25 - but what do I know.
188- Mr Bolted Horse- did you take the plunge and gamble your 3 squid on the Tories.
Do you really believe that lefty socialists are evil personified on this world and the next?
196. Don’t feed the troll!
195) Harry - its a huge mystery to me what holds him up. To me, HRC has a 5% chance of the Dem nom and even that is a stretch. Just goes to show the power of spin….
194
As I read that, he’s calling her a racist. It appears we disagree.
192 CLearly the economy is in for a rough time in the next few months but I believe that with correct handling we will not have a recession this side of the atlantic and just a short one in the US .
200 - Possibly but the problem is that the engine of growth over the past few years has thrown one or two spiggots. There is no way that we can cheat our way out of this one. The story of the last few years has been surviving the last bubble by creating a new bubble. We survived the dot-com bubble by creating a leveraged debt bubble. Frankly we are now out of bubbles!
199. Yes, a woman who raised, loved and repeatedly sacrificed for her black grandchild is a racist. Riiight…
198. Whats holding him up is me not having enough cash to take kkks more at that price
Been free a marketeer and investor in the stock market, there is value in a falling market.
That is completely different from this governments economic policy that is going to make the current situation worse.
199- all Obama is saying is that people you love and care for can have some distasteful views.
My lovely Italian wife for instance thinks that I am an ignorant, drunken, pikey, slob. Strange views indeed! Still love her though.
198/203 On here we analyse all aspects of the polls and delegate counts and can conclude that Obama is almost home and dry but to the average non interested in politics person here and in the US they look at the head to head polls many of which still shoe Clonton leading Obama and understandably conclude she is far from out of it .
200. It might be like 1978 a lull before the storm. It makes me laugh that you fervently believe the uk would not have gone into recession if the Liberals or Labour had been in power!
I think you have not fully grasped the situation in the US if you think it will be short lived. The great problem is the house prices have already tunbled over the other side of the Atlantic meaning lending against housing is not going to be so easy. Added to which the Fed have just stressed the problem of Inflation. In the US they at least have some fiscal room, we have none here.
The UK is in bad shape and i do have an interest because i am already out of work and i would love things to be ticking along at 3% but they are not. The Markets are just volitile at the moment and awash by bearish sentiment- It happens in economics! I blame the Liberal Democrats it is all there fault!
206. Clonton leading Obama
- 
- 
197- socrates- I find myself strangely compelled by Bolted Horse’s bizarre mutterings.
It must be very strange being in his head for a moment and observing life through his oddly warped brain.
202. But isn’t it possible - indeed, isn’t it likely - that she was both. One aspect of racism is how hypocritical those who have racist views can be. They can both stereotype those members of a race they don’t know as unworthy, lesser or fearful, while at the same time making exceptions for individuals they happen to know, or at least know of.
208 Not used to new keyboard yet lol
Could have been worse “u” is the other side of “i”
210. I jnow a bloke who engaged to a Black women but calls the local sihk run shop “the Paki” shop. On other occasions he has gone on about his other half been the black sheep…etc
You are quite right there is a funny relationship between what people do, say and carry on with.
200. My wife tends to agree with you (she is also a coneyancing Solicitor so perhaps a bit a wishful thinking too on her part)
and I certainly hope so.
Paradoxically I think a general slow down is probably “better” in purely patisan terms for the Conservatives than a full on depression/severe recession. That danger with the later is ofcourse the possibility of a lingering sense of stability around Brown atleast against the unknown Cameron/Osborne quantity. A climate where the electorate feel thouroughly p***ed off about the economy but not actually frightened possibly suits DC better.
That may be wishful thinking on my part now!
212 There is a company near mine with a Sunshine Desserts sign It now reads COUNT OF ICE SUP LIES . We are all waiting foe the first O to fall off .
213. calls the local sihk run shop “the Paki” shop. - The biggest joke is he prefaced that remark with: i am not racsist but…….
210. Yes! Exactly! That’s the point. He was saying good, loving people can be positive to some members of ethnic minorities while holding stereotypes about members they don’t know. To say a person like that is simply “a racist” is to remove all nuance and understanding from the point.
215.
205
“all Obama is saying is that people you love and care for can have some distasteful views.”
And all I’m saying is that, if you love and care for someone, you don’t air their “distasteful views” on TV.
219
Except if you are a politician running for office…
219. Not on it’s own you don’t. But you can in the context of a speech where you’re saying we all fall prey to these racial prejudices, it’s something within us all, even someone as good as my grandmother does it.
206. She is not ‘far from out of it, though’. I agree with Mike’s assessment about what odds would be value for her. Fact is that Obama is not that near the winning line and nor will he be (or Hillary for that matter), until the convention. Pledged delegated may be stuck with their assignment but superdelegates are not. If nothing major happens between the primaries and the convention, the SDs will find it very hard to overturn the choice of the voters. On the other hand, if Obama does take a big hit, there is every reason to assume that the SDs won’t back a losing candidate just because of the results six or eight months earlier.
Preacher-gate may or may not be enough to tip the balance. It’s certainly a very bad story for Obama, but not I think enough to be so damaging as to tip the balance - yet. Whether it develops that degree of severity depends on where it goes now. Unless there are more revelations, it will die down to a background rumble. If there are more stories to come out, then I can see Obama losing SDs very rapidly, not just because of what they think will be best for their party but because many are elected themselves and will wish to distance themselves from the fallout. Add in some healthy wins for Clinton and her name could easily be on the ballot paper in November. But only if this (or something else like it) becomes a good deal more damaging than it has been already. For now, Obama remains a strong favourite.
Off-topic, entirely unsurprising news alert: the London Greens are urging their supporters to give their 2nd preference votes to Ken Livingstone. See http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/18/london08.politicalnews
Given the political position of the Greens - close to Ken, or left of him, on many issues - I can’t imagine this will gain him many votes he wouldn’t be getting already. (It does, however, somewhat annoy me as a potential voter - I’m considering giving the Greens one of my votes as a symbolic gesture, but I could never bring myself to vote for Ken. Hmph.)
Listened to the whole Obama speach on Ben Brogan’s blog.
Though it was terrific.
Not sure what America will make of it.
They may prefer the lid on their casseroles.
219- you do though if you want to win a presidential election.
I am sure most of the contenders would be more than happy to skewer their lovable grandparents, and convert them into kebabs if this will net them the election.
223 - Why the problem, you imply that you have to do what you are told!
Think Nick Palmer MP needs to clean up his website as someone seems to be using it as a shop window:
http://broxtowelabour.org/v-web/gallery/Nick-Palmer-MP/PSP_Nick_Palmer
227. Seems to be going from talking about one lot of pussey to another on this one:
http://broxtowelabour.org/v-web/gallery/Nick-Palmer-MP/Nick_Palmer_MP_Respect_0002
196 Tyson, I am still thinking about it…but, having studied probability, it is scientifically proven I can change the result by placing a bet.
Do you really believe that lefty socialists are evil personified on this world and the next?
Conservatives understand the world. Socialist Lefties do not. They dont understand why big square pegs dosnt fit in small round holes - and will destroy all with a mallet making them fit their dumb leftie view.
Watch this documentary on North Korea. See children training to be human pixels in a human tv screen, training 6hrs per day for 9months a year…the peasants eating clay and bark…people too scared to protest…the faked grief at the glorious leader’s death…
quite a gap has opened up between Betfair and Intrade on McCain for president prices - the intrade prices are the equivalent of about 2.5 (over 2.8 on Betfair). But who’d want to have investments in US dollars at the moment?
227. & 228. It seems to me that people try that on anyway these days. Maybe a more sutle approach aat telling nick p would have helped.
Betfair currently has stand out odds for Obama becoming President, even taking account of their 5% commission. They go 1.34-1, compared with the evens money offered by most bookies and some even go odds on.
231. anyway = anywhere
165
Maybe Livingstone should invite the Rev Wright to help kickstart his campaign,perhaps a shared platform with Chavez & Qaradawi to see who comes out with the most hatred.
196 Tyson reply (2).
Ignoring the crimes of socialism, the untold millions murdered and even more living lives as slaves…lets ignore any relatives who may have died in Socialist camps or relatives murdered at Katyn…otherwise it may cloud our judgment.
Socialism is reasonable & understandable idea for an oppressed society. In a free democracy, it is something else.
235. Socialism is the poor mans capitalism!
196 Tyson reply (3).
There are always 3 types of people. It is how balance is maintained. 3 is a magic number. 3 provides balance. 3 legs makes a balanced chair. There are the Good, the Bad and the Stupid.
There are 3 types of people in Politics, the Good, Bad and Stupid.
Conservatives, Socialists (International, National, Islamist) and the mob.
Good and Bad oppose each other. Good believes in Freedom for the people. Bad believes in Control of the people.
196 Tyson reply (4).
Good and Bad are balanced. Ying and Yang. So, to achieve power, both Good or Bad need the mob. Good believe reason with the mob. Bad are happy to trick the mob, using simple slogans, hate and simplistic deceptive images.
Wow. Historic. Undoubtedly a president is speaking. Obama’s first State of the Nation.
If only there was a British politician who could tackle our racial problems
239. What are britain’s racial problems?
239. Racial and Immigration are not the same!
239. There was once a politician called Enoch Powell and he had some very positive things to say about racial relations - perhaps Obama’s career will follow Enoch’s path. That is shunned by the political establishment but proved to be right in the record of history.
242. Obama has already been shunned by the democratic establishment.
242 - Oh my word, are you on the same planet as the rest of us. Comparing Obama to Enoch is so far wide of the mark it is utterly unbelievable.
Colorado poll from SUSA - good news for Obama in this important November state:
McCain 41
Obama 50
McCain 48
Clinton 42
Obama runs +9, and Clinton runs -6.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0ccaa21f-6b0d-43ad-be26-29f8a998f6b1%20
196 Tyson reply (5).
Liberals are interesting. They can be either Good and Bad. They are often intelligant but lack common sense. Liberals are designed to keep people in check. A constantly whining in a human’s ear.
Liberals do not exist where there is imminent threat as they are unable to survive. As conditions become safer, they become more prevalent.
Like an immune system, in the absence of an immediate threat, they turn against the parent host.
By attacking Conservatives, liberals attack that which makes their liberalism possible and thus threaten their own existance…but like exczyma, asthma and cancer or like the it may prove fatal for both.
The turtle said “Why? By killing me, you shall drown.” The scorpion replied “I am a scorpion, it is my nature.”
some say, Freedom isnt Free…The price of Freedom is Blood… or The price of Freedom is Constant Vigilance (take yr pick)
If the Price of Freedom is sacrifice, the surcharge on Freedom is Liberal whinning
227, 228 - Also on P5, a rather unfortunate picture of Nick with “Parliamentiary briefs”, counterpointed by ads for sexy lingerie…!
244. It gets worse:
http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/3066726.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=32F168F2F013CA9A2237CC537C94568DA55A1E4F32AD3138
I wonder if Healey was a communist as well, he looks like Brezhnev. Gordon Brown looks like a communist as well!
http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/3361429.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=5C1929E78F851DD25F8DD4F61441C23BA55A1E4F32AD3138
231: Thanks, martin. It’s pretty juvenile stuff, as you imply - we’ll get rid of it.
247. I would just like to say that this shows the parliamentry communications allowance can reach parts that politicians no matter how hard they try cannot reach!!!
:lol: 
238.But Conservatives believe in Freedom for the rich and dont give a toss for the poor-no tax cuts for them just for business.
So are they good?
rogerh
251 Bad are happy to trick the mob, using simple slogans, hate and simplistic deceptive images
249. Just thought it is out of order; sorry about the jokes! I cannot believe someone spent so much time putting it on as the time delays on the postings indicate they spent much time on it. You can see who it is through the IP address anyway!
251, unlike Labour, who abolished the 10% rate of income tax?
179.
Not a major gaffe by any means. The 9/11 commission pretty much established that Iran helped the September 11th hijackers with part of their journey. Although there is no direct evidence linking AQI and Iran (which is why McCain had to retract the comment) there is clear evidence that, at the very least, AQI has been using the Iran-Iraq and the Syria-Iraq borders to enter Iraq.
The problem is that, as with the Bin Laden/Saddam connection, if you make an assertion that you cannot immediately back up the CW that you ‘lied’ about it becomes hard to dislodge, even if (as in the case of Saddam) evidence later comes to light that there were terrorist training camps in Saddam’s Iraq.
FWIW Obama has been very clever in that he has reframed the debate from patriotism (or lack of) to race and racism. However, that still doesn’t alter the fact that he’s really damaged his chances in November (if he gets that far) and rallied the Republican base behind McCain. I also thought that the MSNBC poll had “Do you think America is ready for an African-American president” A. Yes, Obama can lead us. B. No, America is not ready for an African-American president. What about those who are not racist but who don’t support Obama.
re 215 which is the only party which has increased taxes for the poor in order to give tax cuts for the well off?
It certainly wasn’t the Tories
If Obama wins the democratic race, I think this is the defining moment when he lost the presedential one.
The republicans can feed into a percieved problem that in some way shape of form there is anti american streak under the venear of hope and change.
A contagion that is toxic and deadly.
256. And, a special bonus round, name the only two years since the NHS was formed that the money spent one year was less then the previous year, and for an extra point, what party was in charge each time….
O.K,where do you place a socail democrat,economically centre-left,with some authoritarian ideas on law and order,whilst at the same time very liberal views on honosexuality and viewing the ‘nuclear family of mummy,daddy,2.4 sprogs’ as one of many family set-ups in GB 2008?
251. Yeah sure mate ..thats whats Conservatives are all about …have you had your mush and bromide yet…
255. How precisely did Iran “help” the 9/11 attackers?
What evidence is there that Saddam Hussein allowed training camps in Iraq?
This crazy world we live in. Demanding “evidence” for justifications to go to war. It’s ridiculous.
255 Matthew that’s a fairly weak defence. ‘helped with part of their journey’ could be applied to plenty of nations (more plausibly than Iran as well), and as for AQI using the Iran-Iraq and Syria-Iraq borders, it should be pointed out that those border comprise about 50% of Iraq’s total borderage, and that the Turkish and Saudi borders have American troops stationed on them, so its hardly surprising, or evidence of anything other than a lack of abject stupidity.
AQI and Iran haven’t been linked, and those who are justifiably in favour of the Iraq War do their credibility no justice by repeating unsubstantiated claims that neither ring true or serve any purpose but to rile those who are already concerned about the lack of veracity in those who support the continuation of military presence in Iraq.
He shouldn’t have said it - it was foolish, and not the first time he has been foolish on the issue of Iran (”bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!”).
I have yet to see ‘pastorgate’ cause the GOP to rally behind McCain as you suggest. I think this incident will bolster Obama, which is why he is not trying to close it down. Obama is keeping this story alive, and with good reason. He stays in the news, has plenty on TV about his churchgoing, and keeps the story about race, which is something that Hillary and McCain cannot talk about without great difficulty.
223 Green voters gave huge backing to Livingstone in 2004 (their candidate actually came behind the BNP’s Leppert, despite their candidates polling really well for the London Assembly).
It just shows the party’s political naivety that they should leap on board a sinking ship - and they repeat the stupid argument that Boris Johnson is some sort of terrible person who will do terrible things as Mayor.
262 I think Obama has handled this issue as well as he could have done, but I certainly don’t see it as being positive for him. Wright’s views are not the sort of views that appeal to US floating voters.
260, I thought they had changed, they have just got intrested in promising to spend more than Labour, on the NHS and other major departments, as well as giving every paerent a year off to look after the family.
Just when the tide has turned, and business wants the old tax cutters and slashing public sector workers back.
You coul`dnt make it up.
263 - the BNP have a relatively articulate intelligent candidate this time in the maoyoral elections. They should do better than last time, and will be keen to run a high profile campaign to boost their assembly chances.
Normally I would expect BNP voters to favour Labour - or nobody as a second preference. Any thought on it this time? Boris would obviously not want to be seen saying “OK so vote BNP, but give me your second preference.”
257 - I suggest that you read or listen to the speech, it is the opposite of what you suggest.
This is the most pro-American speech delivered by any of the candidates. It is also one that posits a real critique of the media’s role in America’s problems.
IIRC more BNP voters gave their second preference to Norris than to Livingstone in 2004, although UKIP was a more popular second preference than either.
I expect that Johnson will net more support from BNP supporters than Livingstone will. I think Barnbrook will win about 4/5%in the Mayoralty.
I wonder how Cameron really feels about having Boris as his candidate for London Mayor. He probably knows how the Queen must feel every time Phillip opens his mouth.
Just watched Balls other half Yvette Cooper summing up for the Govt in tonights Budget Debate.
What planet is she from exactly?
Year 0 or 1997 was invoked time and time again in her speech.There was nothing that you could say was good about it.Her answer from Ken Clarke on the raising of corporation tax on small businesses was to say that they were higher in 1988.
The world was a slightly different place then.
Come on Labour lets at least have some coherent arguments.
Too many open goals being presented for DC now.
267,
UKpaul I have an I agree.
However its not my opinion that counts.
The perception will not be of the speech, but the issue highlighted previously.
You make the mistake because I think and have bet that Mcain will win in the fall thats what I would like to happen.
I know where you stand but where would you put your money?
245 - That is an old poll taken in February when SUSA polled all 50 states. The interesting thing was that Obama opened up the map but Clinton still won enough states to get past 270 and only did 4 ECV worse than Obama (280-276). It fits. Obama has more potential than Clinton but is also more vulnerable in traditional Democratic states.
262.
New evidence of the links between Saddam and Al Quaeda
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/006/550kmbzd.asp
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/889pvpxc.asp
Iran-Al Quaeda links
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,198857,00.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/11/14/wiran14.xml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/11/14/wiran214.xml
From the Telegraph article.
“Links between Iran and al-Qa’eda date back to the early 1990s, when bin Laden was based in Sudan. According to the US 9/11 Commission report, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards helped to train al-Qa’eda fighters, and the Iranians were suspected of helping al-Qa’eda to carry out the truck bomb attacks against an American military base in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in June 1996 that killed 19 US servicemen.”
Makes McCain’s statement seem rather more reasonable.
271 - Money’s on Obama. There comes a time when fear stops working and now is that time.
McCain just spent two days claiming that Al Qaida (a Sunni organisation) were working with Shias. He hasn’t got a clue and that will become clearer when the presidential race is focused on. The one thing that Americans know they want is a president who can be relied upon not to be the embarrassment that Bush has been.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/18/mccain-gaffe-common-kno_n_92099.html
272 - Obama’s strength in depth was much greater than Clinton’s, as shown in that poll and subsequently. She relies on the 51/49 strategy and we saw what happened with Kerry and Gore and trying that tactic.
269. Yes, but she loves him anyway.
271 - Be careful with McCain. He has a chance of winning, but he is the heavy underdog (although he came back from the dead in the GOP primary and is probably best in that role).
The polls show him in a tie with the Democrats and that is being touted as great given the anti-GOP sentiment. The problem is that the Democrats don’t have a nominee. When they do their support will go up as people coalesce behind them. Rasmussen shows that only 60-65% of Dems are supporting Clinton and Obama. That is bound to go up when a nominee is chosen.
Unless the Dem race turns into an absolute bloodbath and there is a floor fight at the convention there will be enough time for the loser to endorse and support the winner. Either Clinton or Obama will do this for their own political futures. So, the Democratic nominee is still favorite.
On the nomination - Obama’s chances have shot up in the last couple of days. Not because of the speech, but the news that MI and FL are not re-voting. I have always said that Clinton’s only chance was to win the PV. Without re-votes that won’t happen. (Although if she does well in the remaining states she may claim FL should be included when looking at the PV). Unless she wins by 20 points in FL she is out.
And ukpaul - Clinton has always had a better chance of the Dem nomination than Romney did for the GOP after ST. Clinton is currently about 100 delegates behind (1600-1500) with 2025 needed. Romney was about 600 behind (800-200) with only 1200 odd needed. Not all the states were WTA after ST making it almost impossible for him to regain the lead, especially given the much fewer supers on the GOP side.
“but the news that MI and FL are not re-voting”
If that’s the case, doesn’t that suggest that Mr McCain will get a grudge-boost in those states?
272 - I don’t think Clinton is any more electable than Obama and most of the polling has shown him doing better in swing states. He is playing on a different map to her, but there is no value winning Colorado if he loses Michigan. The national polling has moved away from Obama in the last few weeks. Clinton now does (marginally) better in match-ups. My point was they both have different strengths and weaknesses.
276 - I gave the figures a few days ago, Romney would have benefitted from a major problem that, if it had happened in the Democrat race, would not have been given to Clinton.
Look at the figures and the nature of the race and you realise that what kept Clinton hanging on by her fingertips would also have kept Obama from being able to lose big in a short space of time. It also would have left McCain in real difficulty but Romney helped to stop that possibility.
I was also referring to two different time frames, Clinton post Texas/Ohio in comparison with Romney post ST.
Romney comes out of this smelling of roses in comparison to Clinton.
277 - Possibly, the Democrats will certainly have a lot more work to do to recover. But it’s not insurmountable. These primary votes took place in January and February and the General is in November. If the nominee campaigns hard these states should be in play - but it would be better for the Dems if they had had a contested primary.
On a side note - the Obama campaign has been tactically clever in running the clock down in MI and FL but is it in line with his message? It seems to be the same old politics to me, working things to your own advantage. Wouldn’t it have been better to say yes, lets rerun these primaries and let everyones voices be heard in the process?
279 - I don’t follow your first paragraph.
There is a huge difference between Romney post ST and Clinton post Ohio/Texas.
1. Romney was much further behind in absolute terms and had no chance of the nomination. Clinton cannot catch Obama in pledged delegates but had a chance in the PV (FL and MI do alter that), but the Dem race is about all the delegates not just the pledged ones.
2. Clinton has won many more states and many more votes than Romney. She won Ohio and Texas (in the PV). She won California and Massachusetts. She has won more votes than any previous Democratic nominee, so it is understandable she wants to continue at least until PA.
I agree with some of your criticisms of the Clinton campaign tactics but don’t see why she should pull out yet. If she insists on going to the convention after losing the PV at the end of all the primaries then fair enough. But at the moment she has every right to continue. If she didn’t you would she a lot more Dem party big wigs speaking out.
281 - The prevalence of PR for the dems has helped the person running second to hang in there ‘just in case’ (re first para).
We just disagree about the SD’s. I’ve never bought the argument that they could and would go against the winner of the most pledged delegates (bar if it was a handful either way).
282 - If the Dem race was WTA Clinton would be well in the lead and Obama under pressure to pull out!
The SDs will certainly go with the winner of the most pledged delegates IF they win the PV as well. But if they lose the PV it is up in the air. A rasmussen poll showed 59% of Democrats thought the winner of the PV should get the nomination - this would affect the SDs.
RIP Arthur C Clarke…
Two extremely dignified ex Labour MPs on Newsnight (Ann Campbell and a guy) talking about their Iraq war vote (one for, one against). Why aren’t more Labour politicians like that?
277. I think its likely that Obama will win enough superdelegates for them to seat the two delegations anyway.
285 My exact thoughts.
Perhaps being an ex-Labour MP points the way to decency.
“A new CBS News poll finds that while most voters who have heard at least something about controversial statements made by Barack Obama’s longtime pastor say their view of the Democratic presidential candidate is unchanged, a third say it has made them feel more negative about Obama.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 844 adults nationwide, including 749 registered voters, interviewed by telephone March 15 - 17, 2008. Interviewing for the questions on Wright and Obama was conducted March 16-17, 2008 among a sample of 355 registered voters. ”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/18/opinion/polls/main3948010.shtml?source=mostpop_story
Worth reading Ezra Klein on the political implications of this whole palava:
“Now that Obama’s candidacy is, in part, a referendum on the party’s willingness to confront the issue of race and forge a cross-ethnic alliance in search of economic justice, it’s hard to see how the supers can side with Clinton. Not because Obama is right in his quest, but because his candidacy is now too deeply intertwined with the history of the Democratic Party and the coalition that has evolved to support it.
“Given that the superdelegates would need to explicitly and overwhelmingly reject Obama’s candidacy in order for Clinton to attract the necessary delegates, and insofar as the work laid out in today’s speech will now become a fundamental part of Obama’s candidacy, it seems very hard for the superdelegates to break with the voters and nominate Clinton.”
http://tinyurl.com/27dsuv
Bearing in mind that Obama’s lead is now such that he would almost certainly need superdelegates currently pledged to him to actually _switch_back_to_Clinton_ in significant numbers and despite his pledged delegate lead - or the remaining superdelegates to back Clinton by a completely improbable margin - he’s going to have to screw up incredibly badly to lose the nomination. Stranger things have happened, but given how sure-footed his campaign has been so far, this has to be highly unlikely. Backing Obama for the nomination at current odds isn’t quite free money, but it’s very good value.
229. I watched that film a while ago - and it’s full of naive bits of nonsense, such as
“It’s illegal to look a foreigner in the eye”
“only a few have permission to talk to foreigners”
“elderly people and the disabled are encouraged to stay indoors”
“children in the countryside are dying of starvation”
“children [in the Arirang display] do not know what words they are
forming”
…as well as mispronunciations like “Yuchi” and “Kim Yong Il”. It
also criticises a story of “a thousand cranes descending from heaven” and “swallows bowing their heads in sorrow” after the death of Kim Il Sung, as if it is being presented as fact (presumably the idiotic western film director didn’t understand the concept of artistic metaphor and symbolism).
Luckily I know people who have been to the DPRK, and who have told me what it is really like. In particular, they were allowed to walk
around freely and speak to the local people, without always being
accompanied by chaperones.
289
Mr Obama made his speech today because he believes the Rev Wright story is damaging his chances of winning. I would imagine that the super delegates will parse the demographics of the remaining primaries after the results are known, to see if Mr Obama has alienated significant blocks of voters, before they decide how to use their votes.
“The momentum in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary battle has shifted back to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 - 41 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 49 - 43 percent Sen. Clinton lead in a February 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. In that survey, the momentum was with Sen. Obama who had narrowed a 52 - 36 percent gap from a February 14 poll. ”
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1158
Obama’s speech is - rightly, in my mind - getting pretty much rave reviews across the board.
Significantly, the New York Times has an editorial praising it very highly.
http://tinyurl.com/2tpa76
The paper has, of course, been pro-Hillary hitherto. I think Obama may have clinched the Nomination with his bravery today.
292 - Rubbish and they know it (and presumably so do you).
This gives a clearer overview.
http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
149. It looks as though my “if” is already redundant
291. some will do that. others will vote based on how much they like obama and clinton. others will have totally different reasons. it is a massive misconception that has been built up by some people that the superdelegates are this big block acting with a single voice and mind who all pore over opinion polls and demographics, doesn’t wotk like that.
294
The pollster link you give includes the Quinnipiac poll, so why on earth do you denigrate it as rubbish?
296
Good point.
I remember an article, some years ago, where a former Conservative MP said you could predict the outcome of the Conservatives leadership vote by assuming spite as the primary motivator
297 - Because they only make a comparison with their own poll. There have been two polls out of many which showed a narrow Clinton lead, all the others have shown her winning PA by a wide margin. One of these two was the previous Quinnipiac poll. It is factually correct, if they refer only to their own polls, but disingenuous of them to claim that Clinton’s lead has widened.
299
Surely its only comparisons between a different polls by the same organisation that can give a picture of movement? Different organisations use different methodologies. Lumping all the polls together and drawing a best fit line doesn’t show the variation from one poll to the next.