Should Labour backers be getting their money on?
March 18th, 2008
The Tories get eight seats nearer a majority on the spreads
Welcome again to the high-risk high-reward world of Commons seat spread betting where serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares.
When we last looked at this on March 7th the Tory spreads were 299-305 seats; Labour was at 269-275 and the Lib Dems at 47-50. so the Tories have moved up eight seats, Labour are down seven and the Lib Dems down three.
Here it’s real money with punters taking real risks that drive the prices up and down. So if you think that the Tories will do better than the 313 seats now on offer and you trade at £100 a seat you would make £4200 if the latest ICM poll is right and the party ends up with 355 seats. The calculation is simple - your winnings, or losses, are calculated by the numbers of seats difference between the price you went in and what actually happens. So if Cameron’s Tories did get 355 seats the difference is 42 and you multiply that by your stake level.
With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose - so be careful. It’s judging the right price to go in that is critical.
Over the weekend with the new polls coming out I have bought the Tories at 305 and 311 seats to add to earlier bets at the 302 level.
If you think that a Labour recovery is possible then now is a good time to buy. The level is 268 seats so if Gordon hung on to a bare majority and got 325 seats then you would make 57 times your stake level. Clearly if you wait to bet until a Labour recovery is seen in the polls then the prices will have changed.
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Morning Mike. I’m just watching a position or two particularly my gold puts.
Again I would flag up for PBers the Coral Tory majority prices.
Conservatives To Have A Majority 1-25 Seats 9.00
Conservatives To Have A Majority 26-50 Seats 10.00
These can serve as a part hedge for those who want to buy Labour seats on the spreads.
Those who want to back labour would be better to sell Tory seats rather than buy labour because the spread is smaller than buying labour in % terms. Yes I know that the spread for both mkts. is 6 but as a percentage it is slightly smaller and every penny counts. The spread on the Lib Dem mkt. is huge. Don’t touch it.
[NOTE FROM Mike Smithson - the market is here ]
1- I would certainly agree with you on the Lib Dem spread. At the present time I do think that the spreads are pretty much as I would put them if I were making the market so I am leaving it alone at the moment.
Having said that, I think the Coral prices look nice but I don’t like tying up my cash with bets like that for 2 years.
2
Betfair putting up a mirror mkt of the coral prices would be handy.
Mike needs to get a revenue click link thing with Corals.
The big story tommorow will be Lehmans - the next Bear?????????????
3 - It’s actually starting to worry me. These stocks are our pension funds after all. More days like yesterday and I’ll never be able to retire!
Though as I say that I note that the Asian markets have rallied thios morning.
5
I wouldn’t worry the banking system will not go down. Some weaker firms which were badly run will go down. There was a bubble like the Dotcoms and now it is bursting, this is healthy for the long run.
The world, particuarly the west is going to have to get used to high oil and food prices and learn to cycle and grow their vegetables like the Chinese used to. Gold spot down to $1001 and oil fell as I predicted yesterday. More to come.
The big question I keep asking is will we see a sharp run on the pound?
CANADIAN FEDERAL BY-ELECTIONS
held today in 4 ridings won by Liberal Party in 2006 general election. Liberals held 3, Conservative picked up 1.
Good day for Greens, not so hot for NDP, only so-so for Liberals & their leader Stephane Dion, and not bad for Tories govt of PM Stephen Harper.
TORONTO CENTRE (Ontario) LIBERAL HOLD
Liberal 59% (+7%)
New Democratic Party 14% (-10%)
Green 13.5% (+7%)
Conservative 12.5% (-6%)
Former NDP provincial premier Bob Rae runs and wins for the Liberals in this very safe seat; Rae ran against Dion for the Liberal leadership
WILLOWDALE(Ontario) LIBERAL HOLD
Liberal 59% (+4%)
Conservative 30% (+1%)
Green 6% (+2%)
New Democrat 5% (-6%)
Liberals easily retain this suburban Toronto seat that was Tory turf up though the Mulroney govermment.
DESNETHÉ-MISSINIPPI-CHURCHILL RIVER(Saskatchewan) CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Conservative 48% (+7% since ‘06 general)
Liberal 31% (-10%)
New Democratic Party 18% (+3%)
Green 3% (+1%)
Native Canadian Mountie defeats former provincial NDP leader recruited to run for the Grits by party leader Stephane Dion in this northern seat. So hard to tell if this is a regional swing or just a local result, the latter being typical in far north ridings.
VANCOUVER QUADRA (British Columbia) LIBERAL HOLD (barely)
Liberal 36% (-13%)
Conservative 35.5% (+6%)
New Democratic Party 14% (-2%)
Green 13.5% (+8%)
NeoRhino 0.4% (-0.1%)
Liberals hold this upscale Vancouver riding once held by former PM John Turner. But Tory surge doesn’t bode well for the Grits out in Beautiful BC.
4. Well, so long as there is a big bull market in around 2020, I’m OK.
And, anyway, haven’t the pension funds been told time and time again to get out of equities at the top of the market?
7. NeoRhino?? Don’t tell me the Rhino party has already split?
On topic, the answer to Mike’s question probably depends on whether you’re a short- or long-term investor. In the short term, I can see the numbers for the Tories moving up on the market and down for Labour. I said in response to the previous YouGov / ICM polls that I thought the Tory lead was in the 9-12 points range, which was higher than some at the time said, but yesterday’s poll looks like confirmation of my estimate.
If so, the spreads should be moving apart further than they have. However, I still look at the raw numbers of seats that they represent - and I know I’m not alone in that, and it’s probably one reason why the spreads haven’t gone as far as they might have. Basically, even the lower end of the Tory spread represents well over a hundred gains. The only time a party has gained that many since 1945 was in 1997. It represents a huge ask. That’s not to say it’s not possible, but I do think it would require a mood swing beyond what we’ve already seen. Perhaps the economic downturn will generate that; perhaps not.
So in summary, it looks to me like speculating in a bubble-market, something which is highly dangerous - buying might be the best short-term option depite the spread band already being above what I’d regard as the natural level.
One final point. While I’ve said that the Conservatives will struggle to make 100+ gains in one go (because any party would struggle to do that - it’s take the Lib Dems half a century to make half that number), it might just be a great many more. I’ve said in the past that I regard the ‘core’ Labour vote as about 20%, and the 10% or so beyond that that they’re currently polling represent potentially floating voters who are content with the government’s performance in office - mainly those who have benefitted from the Labour government. Some of these are public sector workers and those who are winners from the very significant extra public spending. If the downturn becomes serious (ie a recession), those ‘winners under Labour’ could melt away. Without the ideological underpinning that kept Labour afloat in 1983, their vote could go a good deal lower still. That is a worst-case scenario, and one that I’d give no more than one chance in ten, but it is something that spread betters should consider.
With the very real prospect of Boris winning in London and Cameron winning the next election and Barclays going through the floor….as Hirohito might have said speech noted that “A situation has developed not necessarily to (my) advantage”
‘Big Issue’ anyone?
Citizen’s Advice reporting a 35% increase since Feb last year in enquiries about mortgage problems say the BBC. http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hoO45xpTUgGxQFXZTo76BFK3Jhdw
If repossessions/negative equity return, what reasons will there be left for supporting Labour?
10. LOL
10. Acceptence of Tory progress Roger!! Brown now is in trouble.
Went to Boris prelaunch last night.
His speech was less than inspiring but the Q&A session was better handled.
The best part of the night was the presentation by Linton Crosbie on who and how to target certain voters.
The strategy although not one i am prepared to reveal here has had a lot of thought and research put into it.
If it is carried through on the ground over the next 45 days then Ken really has had it.
There was no mood of compalcency but a real air of excitement and a determination by everybody there to go out and get the Tory vote out.
Best groundroot feeling for me since the early 80,s
10. Glad to see you’re taking it with such good grace. Still, all things turn eventually and at least Barclays will pay you a dividend.
15-At the moment they will….
Well the DAX and the CAC are both substantially down, but at the moment the Dow’s marginally up and the FTSE’s doing reasonably well. So, with any luck your pensions will stay mostly intact:)
[7] Hiya, SSI - first let me say that I really enjoy your participation here.
I have family on Vancouver Island (Comox Valley) so take a mild interest in provinicial political trends… British Columbia has a long history of extreme volatility - it is I think the only place in the English-speaking world in which no less than four different parties have formed majority governments inside the last thirty years, I wonder if the Greens will make it five within the next ten years or so…
According to the Guardian, the position in “the North of England and Scotland” is Lab 36% and Tory 35%. That is extraordinary if true, given that the Tories must be on sub-20% in Scotland presumably. On those sort of figures, some of Ave It’s wilder predictions would come true.
And it’s a 25 point Tory lead in the Midlands, Tory 50% and Lab 25%. That will have Nick P choking on his cornflakes, but is an astonishing figure.
Leading South Lakeland Liberal Democrat district councillor Rob Cocker has today joined the Conservative Party and the Conservative group on SLDC.
Coun Cocker represents Kendal Kirkland and is a campaigner for inward investment in Kendal.
Coun Cocker said he had not taken his decision lightly and added that the Conservative party was the only party that “truly represented” his views and had a strong green agenda.
Wait until you see the likelyhood to vote figs. Lots of voters don’t care who is in power - it doesnt make any difference. But may, given a GE campaign, eventually go out to vote.
Still not convinced that the Conservative brand is mended!
20 - Another Cllr defecting to the Tories??? This follows a LibDem in Hull and Labour in Croydon. Is somebody directing these to drip out or is it all coincidental?
Don’t forget that in the short term the following month is a holiday month. My rugrats are on hols from tomorrow and we are off to the Carribean in a couple of weeks along with many other Consevative voters.
Therfore I would expect a potentially significant reduction in the Conservative lead over the next month or so which could give some opportunities on the betting front.
John Butterfill (Bournemouth West MP) to stand down at next GE
http://www.thisisdorset.net/display.var.2127035.0.sir_john_to_stand_down_at_next_election.php
10 nice one roger
:-)
stick with BARC, they’ll be fine, Bob Diamond is a top man and will make you money (eventually)
If Councillor Cocker thinks that the Conservatives have a green agenda then he has been eating too much Mint Cake!
David Herdson @ 9 re Labour’s real core being 20% with the additional 10% being floating voters satisfied with the government.
There is another group, probably now aged over 35, which says things are bad now but I remember even worse times under a Conservative government.
David Herdson @ 9 re Labour’s real core being 20% with the additional 10% being floating voters satisfied with the government.
There is another group, probably now aged over 35, which says things are bad now but I remember even worse times under a Conservative government.
28. my parents are in their 50’s, they remember what times were like in the 70’s.
CAC and DAX now green too.
On topic: I wonder what will happen if the next few polls have figures of 9-16% Tory leads? Could Brown really be persuaded to step down, after 10 years lusting for power? Could Labour force him out?
If it came down to it, they wouldn’t go for a vote of no confidence. Labour/Gordon showed that during the tuition fees vote (won by just 5), the long goodbye of Tony and the lack of a contender against Brown that they value stability so much they don’t want any risk at all of a bloodbath.
Understandable, given what the aftermath of Mrs Thatcher’s assassination did for the Conservatives. However, unless things turn around before council and mayoral elections Labour could be in a tricky pickle.
Icarus 21. “Still not convinced that the Conservative brand is mended!” I fear that you will be saying that half-way through Cameron’s second term.
As Chair of SLDC….
Rob Cocker move to the Cons is no loss to LibDems……he would probably not have been reselected for the May 1st elections, but he jumped ship beforehand………has been in limbo for some days, and has now shown his blue hand.
It’s a good job that the recent change in the Code of Conduct for Councillors removed the whistleblowing obligation, otherwise the Standards Committee might have been busy looking at the record of declararion of interests (or not).
Whoever described him as a “leading” councillor clearly has a sense of humour……..since being elected in 2006, Rob Cocker has not lead on anything.
Sorry to put the facts to block what some might see as a “good story”.
From The Guardian’s Great Poets today - Siegfried Sassoon.
The General
“Good-morning; good-morning!” the General said
When we met him last week on our way to the line.
Now the soldiers he smiled at are most of ‘em dead,
And we’re cursing his staff for incompetent swine.
“He’s a cheery old card,” grunted Harry to Jack
As they slogged up to Arras with rifle and pack.
. . . . .
But he did for them both by his plan of attack.
[30] Well, I do wonder. If the polls between now and the Conference season consistently show Tory leads of 10-15% (with a few up to 20%) I wonder if the Unions might want to have a word with Gordon. As for the Parliamentary Party, I suspect those first elected in the 1990s will be taking the view that what you don’t do in twelve years you don’t do, and it’s a perfectly respectable length of time to have been an MP.
34-Well after 12 years they will have built up a nice pension pot.
31. Mike - do you really think Cameron is going to win a second term (or even a first)?
As Mike has been alluding to this is not so much about the Conservative brand but the complete destruction of the NuLabour one.
It started in Scotland and is rippling down the country.
Relaunches of Brands are notoriously difficult and GB has found this out.
27/8. To get down to anywhere near a true core Labour vote, there would need to be a meltdown much worse than we are currently experiencing, impacting greatly on government spending - and the blame would need to land at No10, rather than US banks etc.
As I said earlier, there are still large numbers who have done OK out of Labour - and will continue to do so if things don’t get much worse. If they do get worse, the 1980s won’t look too bad at all. Anyone with some knowledge of economic history has been watching all sorts of historic parallels and hoping for divergence from them. Banking crises were the true cause of the ’30s depression (and those crises came about from the debt-economy of the ’20s); the oil price shocks of the ’70s and early ’80s created all sorts of trouble; an overreaction in interest rate cuts to the stock market falls in 1987-8 lead to inflation taking off and consequently to the early-90s recession. It will take very careful steering to avoid making any of these mistakes again this time.
This is from NBC’s financial expert, Jim Cramer, last Tuesday - “A Michael Fish” moment. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8
32 - Meeoww.
re 36. Paul - I’ve consistently steered clear from making long-term predictions but I certainly think that Gordon will be hard-pressed to hold on and that the Tories will end up as the largest party.
38 - The problem isn’t making old mistakes it’s making new ones that you don’t realise are mistakes at the time!
Sorry to disagree with you, Mike (31), but I think Icarus is quite right. The Conservative brand is by no means mended.
What I am finding on the doorstep is that a lot of Tory-inclined voters have not been convinced by Cameron’s supposed “liberal” posturing: perhaps they are not as devious as some of our Tory posters on PBC, who are too easily convinced by the “say anything to get elected” strategy.
At the same time, there are other Tory-inclined voters who would like to believe Cameron’s messages; but they receive contradictory messages from from the sitting Tory MP, who is a more traditional type of Conservative.
The long and short of it is that even Tory-inclinded voters are very confused about what they might be getting from Cameron and his henchmen, if they ever came to government. Those who are not Tory-inclined, on the other hand, do seem to be pretty clear: “same old Tories”.
So I cannot see that Cameron’s attempts to re-brand the Tories have succeeded. The increase in the Tory share of the polls is due entirely, IMHO, to the disastrous way that Blair and Brown have been running the country.
“The increase in the Tory share of the polls is due entirely, IMHO, to the disastrous way that Blair and Brown have been running the country”
And that disaster, coupled with the 13 year “time for a change” mentality by 2010, should see the Tories over the line. Not being complacent, but the Tories no longer have the “last person to leave please turn out the lights” problem that Kinnock had when much of the nation had got pretty fed up with 13 years of the Tories. Cameron looks the part, whatever doubts people may have.
And he isn’t Welsh…
10. Good lad Roger - chin up.
38. To be fair, it’s both. But you’re right in that the conscious avoidance of making the old mistakes can be similarly damaging. The late ’80s example was a good one. The stock markets ‘crashed’ in October 1987 and central banks cut rates to prevent a credit crisis as happened following the 1929 crash. Except that 1987 was much more of a correction than a true crash and shares quickly rebounded (some cutting may have been necessary, but it was overdone). Those cuts, on top of an economy that was already moving into top gear, sent inflation out of control and necessitated a rapid reversing of interest rate cuts to levels much higher than they had previously been, which did provoke a recession. The situation wasn’t helped in the UK by the scheduled timing of tax changes, which encouraged a brief consumer boom at just the wrong time as well.
[43] I’m not sure that sort of confusion - which I’m sure is real enough - means much in the ballot box. The same story was told by Labour canvassers in Southwark in 1982 (council elections). Voters asked, which is the Labour Party - the old right-wing O’Grady régime running the Town Hall, or the new left-wing one in your manifesto? With the Bermondsey by-election only a few months in the past, Labour was apprehensive about its stronghold. In the event, Labour retained its huge majority on the Council.
Is Clegg still maintaining the ‘equi-distant’ approach? Shouldn’t his party Always be against the govt (of either main party)?
Does this not feel like the strategy? Oppose the govt that is unpopular nationally to gain seats from them. At the same time, campaigning on local issues where his party is defending against a resurgent opposition?
This has more integrity that it appears. ‘We are an oppositon party. It is our role to hold the govt to account. Remember how ineffective the main opposition party was to both Thatcher and Blair. A strong LD party is the effective way of preventing the govt becoming over-mighty.’
44
I remember the comments in the mid 1990s that doubted the Labour Party was electable, even when it had a 15% poll lead..
and the doubts about Mrs Thatcher in the 1970s when she was Opposition Leader.
43. It is just silly to try and argue that Cameron has had no impact on the current popularity of the Conservative party. I am sure you wish it were true but that doesnt make its so..
Brown has no doubt played his part as well.
The Cameron project is very much WIP so no complacency I hope from Conservatives but I think we would rather be in DC’s position than Brown’s. And I think both DC and Brown are much happier with theie position than the Labdemer’s. At least both of them have a chance of forming the next government.
The wrath of Sian Lloyd - poor old Lembit..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/03/18/do1806.xml
re 43. Tressage. I think that the hard numbers coming from the pollsters are probably more reliable than anecdotes from the door-step. But overall I think the big story is the apparent collapse of Labour not the resurrection of the Tories.
To have two of the major pollsters within a day of each other both reporting Labour at its lowest levels since Michael Foot is quite significant and not something that you can easily dismiss.
Bob, assume “Cameron looks the part…” should have said “Cameron looks the prat….”
I am cheered by this poll - I can see no reason for the Lib Dem share to be so high. So on the assumption that Clegg will get his act together, and a couple of helpful by elections, a really good result should be possible by the time of the next election.
52. i agree, labour has collapsed, but cameron has had an effect o this too. His improved media image and hard work on the tories image has helped them become more of a viable alternative than before.
Sky: Rock to cut workforce by a third by 2011.
53. Icarus, if we ignore the prattle, you are clearly a passionate Liberal or LibDem with at least half a brain.
Why can’t you see that your key opponents at the next election - and even in the upcoming local elections - are Labour?
You have a real chance to take parliamentary seats off Labour in their heartlands, but you have to do the work now - ‘You can’t fatten the pig on market day’ to quote Lynton Crosby.
Like so many LDs - with Mark Senior as your standard bearer - you still think the enemy is the Tories. Fine, if you want to disappear as a British political force. But it is simply not true! Labour has been in power for nearly 11 years, they have their worst leader since Michael Foot and the Tories have got their act together for the first time since 1992. They are the enemy. Persuade your leader to attack them, to appeal to their voters, to pick up the ‘progressive’ standard as it falls from a lifeless Labour’s grip.
The reason you are up to 21% in this poll is because soft Labour voters are looking for a new home. Go get ‘em, boys. Stop poncing around chasing voters who’ve returned to the Conservative home. They’ve moved on.
55. 2011 ? Jesus - they need to cut the outgoings by the summer - all delayed until after the GE ? Pathetic.
51 Would anyone have heard of Lembit if he werent engaged to a TV presenter or dated a cheeky girl?
Is it possible he uses them for publicity?
43
Tressage,where about’s / which area do you live in as it will be interesting to see the Lib Dem gains on 1st of May?
Is it me, or is david cameron spoilt for choice at PMQ’s these days?
58
Whilst he can’t help looking as if a steamroller has driven over his face,the constant ‘look at me’ showing off is pathetic.
[43,50] - If you look at the historical ICM/Guardian polling it is striking how Hague, IDS and Howard were all stuck with a ceiling at 34%, that was breached once at the time of the fuel protests (to 38%) and on just four other months (only to 35%, though) out of >100 months.
Immediately following his election to the Tory leadership Cameron took the Tory vote share to 37% for three successive months. Since then he’s only polled below 34% twice, both during the Brown honeymoon period.
I know a lot of this has been down to Labour losing the plot, and the Lib Dems have had their own difficulties, but Cameron is a big factor in his own right.
Rock to cut mortgage lending by 50%. what a disaster this is going to be.
There has recently been plenty of crowing on here from both Labour and LibDem supporters that, in the middle of the third term of a Labour Govt., the Tories should have double-figure leads. Well, now they have. Normal service has been resumed.
But this has come from Brown demonstrating his wretchedness, as much as any rehabilitation of the Tories. The signs have been there for a long time - how Labour MP’s failed to see and act on this will be one of the great mysteries of the early C.21st.
We now look to have an election delayed until at least October 2009 - which probably gives the Tories the extra time they always needed to largely complete their cleansing. The Tory Front Bench is starting to look like a Government in waiting - and Brown delaying the election has allowed that breathing-space for it to happen. The Tory position could yet improve materially.
The risk for the LibDems is that by late 2009/May 2010, there is going to be such an over-powering desire in the country to kick Labour out, that many voters will think this coming election too important to even consider the side-show. They will go straight to the Tories to ensure the job is done. Anti-Tory strategic voting will unwind - and only a focussed effort to join the Tories in kicking Labour to pieces can keep the LibDems viable. But they havn’t chosen that route - and so 13% will be a good result with Clegg at the helm.
re 56. I have always thought that the overall goal of the Lib Dems should be to replace Labour as the party of the left. That could be nearer than we think. If London goes the way of the polls, as is highly likely, and this provides a platform for a Tory general election win then Labour will be in disarray.
I always thought that Charles Kennedy got it strategically wrong when he set “replacing the Tories as the main opposition party” as his goal ahead of the 2005 general election. This simply was not going to happen and his party’s big achievements on that day were against Labour.
The anti-Tory obsession of many of the Lib Dems who post here and with it the implicit desire that they would prefer Brown are not in my experience representative of the party members I know.
Where have all those posters (and press commentators like Portillo) who have been saying “the Tories should be far more than 9 points in the lead if they are ever going to win power bla bla …” gone?
It’s also a mistake to say ‘it’s like ‘92′ or ‘it’s like 1970′ (even though we all do it, myself included) because every election is uncharted territory which is why elections make such good drama.
Labours landslide in 1997 was unprecedented, three Labour victories in a row was unprecedented, and having a third party holding 60+ seats is unprecedented - the next election will make history whoever wins it.
65, I agree entirely. However, to do that The Mighty Clegg needs to focus his fire on Labour, rather than trying to be seen as both anti-Tory and anti-Labour.
I know there are a dozen very close Lib Dem/Tory marginals, but the only way for his party to make real progress is, as you say, to usurp Labour’s dominant position on the left. I don’t think he has the guts to do it though.
56 Baskerville , you are quite correct , I am the standard bearer of the enemy is the Conservatives faction . Yes we need to take on Labour too in it’s heartlands but the enemy of the majority of the British people is and always will be the Conservative party who pursue power and then use it for the benefits of themselves and their wealthier supporters .
I note the stock markets are up today the Conservative doomster posters on here who wish ill for the British economy will be a bit quieter . they crawl back under their stones at every bit of good news .
CPI up to 2.5%
New polling projections indicate a slight improvement for Labour (at least according to my samplemiser measure) but the Conservatives are still projected to have a healthy majority.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/03/18/british-polling-projections-conservative-majority-60/
65
‘his party’s big achievements on that day were against Labour’
But Mike you can equally say that Ashdown & Kennedy’s big achievements for the 10 years to 2005 were against the Tories.
40 seats gained from the Tories during that time,makes the 2005 gains look small?
65 Mike S. The ’strategic error’ for the Lib Dems is to pursue a single replacement policy. They neither have to replace Labour or the Tories but to chip away at both and ensure they have a block of 50-100 MPs that will eventually lead to a hung parliament. Thereafter all is up for grabs.
65: Wise words Mike, but the Lib Dems have to develop a strategy to both win big of Labour but also hold on to as many of their southern seats too.
68 Mark - would you be prepared to see the LibDems lose 30 seats in the South - if it allowed them to win 60 in the Midlands/North/Wales/Scotland?
73 - Gunning for Labour rather than the current convoluted approach might give them more of a chance, replacing those LibDem voters drifting to the Conservatives with Labour voters drifting in.
re 70 “New polling projections indicate a slight improvement for Labour” Eh? Eh? You should not have had that extra glass of the barley wine last night.
re 71. Yes I agree - the Lib Dems should always target the party that looks like it is losing support and in the 80s and 90s that was the Tories. Now it should be Labour which has all the stench of a government that has been in power for too long.
The lib dem tactic of attacking the tories AND labour divides what little media coverage they get. The tories are on the up and up, labour are showing a collapse, attacking the tories doesnt seem like a bright idea, but attacking labour could lead to major gains in old labour areas.
76.
For the bizillionth time, the ICM poll incidates a smaller Tory lead than the last You Gov poll. Of course, this gets into the whole ‘are polls from different companies comprable’ debate which has been done ad nauseum on this site. However, the evidence suggests that, apart from ComRes, the polling companies produce generally comprable results.
77 cuddles. Nonsense. You don’t sit on your hands when either one of your two main opponents is in the doings. Not being Conservative or Labour helps to define the Lib Dems.
cuddles - 29 - “my parents are in their 50’s, they remember what times were like in the 70’s.”
My parents are in their 90’s and they remember what times were like in the 30’s. So what?
77 “…attacking labour could lead to major gains in old labour areas.” But there are not that many Labour seats where the Lib Dems are second. Where are htese “major gains” going to come from?
68 Mark Senior — “I note the stock markets are up today…”
It is good to see you out of detention, though you should be wearing your school cap (the one with the big letter D on it).
Your homework today is to write an essay on “The Selective Use of Statistical Data”.
Well, the Lib Dems won seats off both the other parties in 2005, so it can be done.
I imagine that there is no statistical fit whatsoever between the Lib Dem vote and the demography of a seat (what on earth does Twickenham have in common with Chesterfield?) - if you wanted to predict how the Lib Dems will do next time you might do better to get the local membership figures for them and the other party in contention in a seat, might be a correlation there.
re 78. Your approach is crackers - all the firms operate differently and cannot be lumped together.
1 - Thanks again, have repeated yesterday’s 60-40 bet on those two outcomes on the strength of the ICM poll.
By backing HP @ 7/4 and those two outcomes at 8/1 and 9/1 you can get about 8/11 on the Tories securing anywhere between c. 230 and 350 seats which looks stonking value.
81 - To prove your point a quick look at Anthony Wells list of Lib Dem target seats shows 28 seats in the top 100 where Lib Dems are second to Labour. The largest swing required - Aberdeen North at 9.25%
Re 65 Mike, of course the smart move for the Lib Dems is to chase Labour seats. The polls show that. At the last GE the Conservatives gained just 10% more votes than the LDs. Today the indications are that the gap has doubled to 20%. Or in other terms at GE05 there were 2 LD votes for every 3 Conservative votes. Today the polls say it will be 2 LD votes for every 4 Conservative votes, a massive shift.
In looking at the levels of membership and activists involved in previous elections the indications are that the average number of LD activists working in a GE will be slightly ahead of Labour. By focusing that overall average in key constituencies the LDs could have a 2:1 or greater advantage Vs Labour.
Where they take on Conservatives the ratio based on the previous GE, (adjusted for a 20% uplift in Conservative activists and a small 10% drop in LDs), is likely to be an average of 3 Conservatives Vs 1 LD. Even when LDs target resources, they will still be out manned fighting target seats held by Conservatives. If the LD strategy of “ruthless targeting” really is followed then they would not bother in Conservative marginals.
79. whereas attacking both has got the lib dems where exactly? the tories are moving up the polls, labour is slumping, the lib dems are…around the same.
81 - the Lib Dems would be closer to Labour in many seats if they had pursued the correct strategy in 2005 rather than the hubristic “decapitation” plan. It would be madness to repeat this folly in 2010, even if the immediate electoral prizes seem few.
68. “…the enemy of the majority of the British people is and always will be the Conservative party who pursue power and then use it for the benefits of themselves and their wealthier supporters.”
I’m too old to take this as a personal insult, but it is very sad that you are so eaten up by hatred of Conservatives. If you genuinely believe this, I hope your fellow LibDems are mature enough to ignore you.
68 A senior moment from Mark “but the enemy of the majority of the British people is and always will be the Conservative party”.
68 More please. Every word you write convinces me that the Liberal Democrat activists are more crackers than ever.
I find it curious that the main cheerleaders for the “Lib Dems Must Attack Labour” approach all seem to be active Conservatives.
87 HF. Does that stand for “Hugely Funny” !!!
If only elections were so ’scientific’. The fact is that there are many cross currents in GE’s that don’t conform to a single thread or theme. Fortunately local factors and the quality of candidates still has a part to play and it would be ridiculous for the Lib Dems to give Tory marginals a free run as much as it would the Conservative to do likewise to the yellow peril.
89. the decapitation plan was a massive miscalculation and failed miserably. instead of just trying to gain marginals they tried to eliminate the tories as the biggest opposition party.
89. the decapitation plan was a massive miscalculation and failed miserably. instead of just trying to gain marginals they tried to eliminate the tories as the biggest opposition party.
92 I think that LibDems who care about their party should discover something for Mark Senior to do that keeps him very busy for a very long time.
Perhaps making a model of the great 1905 Liberal Cabinet out of matchsticks?
93 - I’m not an active Conservative, just thinking about it tactically.
Of course, if like Mark, you believe that the Tories are intrinsically evil, then attacking them remains the right thing to do from a moral perspective. However it’s difficult to deduce that too many LD voters in LD seats feel that way, seeing that a great number of them voted for Margaret Thatcher (and maybe John Major) before switching in 1992 or 1997.
Blimey, it’s not rocket science.
If the Lib Dems want to replace Labour as the party of the left then they have to position themeselves to the left of the Tories.
(Given New Labour’s policies, this may often be to the left of Labour too.)
69.
No surprise at the figure !
Extract from Bloomberg.com
U.K. Inflation Rate Rises to Highest in Nine Months (Update1)
By Svenja O’Donnell
March 18 (Bloomberg) — U.K. inflation accelerated to a nine- month high in February as gas and electricity prices rose, limiting the Bank of England’s scope to cut interest rates.
Consumer prices climbed 2.5 percent from a year earlier, compared with 2.2 percent in January, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The result matched the median prediction of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices rose 0.7 percent on the month, the most since May 2001.
Inflation has now exceeded the 2 percent target for five months. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last month that consumer price-gains may accelerate further, and policy makers have said they face a dilemma as they seek to lower interest rates to shore up economic growth.
Watch out for a cut in USA interest rates today.
I will follow Mike and go in heavy on the conservatives as NuLabour’s economic policy is officially in tatters and they appear to be unelectable.
88 cuddles. Actually its got the Lib Dems the highest representation of any third party for over 70 years.
93
But the Conservatives assume LibDems are a “normal” party and want power.
Imo they do not: their actions are those of a protest party. They choose the wrong leader and target the wrong opposition…
Those are not the signs of a party hungry for power…
These inflation figures must be causing Mervyn King to pull his hair out especially after Darling wrote to him last week reinforcing the target for inflation of 2pct.
I was at a party on Saturday with a lot of city traders and the collective feeling was that sterling could end up overshooting to the downside and get very close to parity with the Euro.
When it or if it does will GB pull the magic lets join the Euro card out of his hat.
They have lower interest rates and this could alleviate the suffering for homeowners.
Long shot but a scenario that i would give about a 25pct weighting.
68. Everyone who died during the 1980s was killed by the Conservatives. It is a little known fact that Margaret Thatcher tactically approved the penetration of MI5 by Conservative party agents who founded and operated a secret wing of the Security Service called “DETTO” - “Death to the Opponents”. DETTO was a Smersh-like network dedicated to the subtle elimination of Lefties, Communists, Socialists, Bearded Wonders and Left-footers. They were also responsible for the large decline in garden birds and native hedgehogs – they shot them all. M*ther f*ckers.
You won’t find any evidence of this of course. They were very cunning. And the establishment was in on it all. But you can be pretty sure that any “natural deaths” in the 1980s recorded on the death certificates as “Coronary” or “Cancer” were the work of DETTO. They used car accidents to write off over 3,000 citizens a year too.
When Cameron regains power, “DETTO” will be revived. B*stards.
The *only way* to stop them is to vote Lib-Dem.
Think about it…..
Mark Senior, 68: -
On 24th March 1998 - the Tuesday following Gordon Brown’s first budget - the FTSE opened at 5,942.8 and closed at 5,983.7.
On 18th March 2008 - the Tuesday following Gordon Brown’s eleventh budget - the FTSE opened at 5,414.4 and after two hours trading is struggling to reach 5,500.
If today’s rise in the FTSE is ‘good news’ I think I’m better off staying under my stone thanks!
102 madasafish. The Conservatives are a party of protest too - all oppositions are !!
93 Augustus.
Q: Against which party did the Lib Dems have a “decapitation strategy” that managed to lose more seats than it won?
A: The Conservatives.
There was no decapitation strategy against Labour ministers. Why?
89 Aaron is right, if the LDs had shifted resources to Labour seats using their “anti-Iraq” uplift, they would be in a much better position than now and instead they squandered, cash, sweat and sandals on David Davis, Michael Howard and Theresa May, even though none of them were in the Labour Govt!
68. Mark Senior, an astonishing and very revealing outburst.
” … the enemy of the majority of the British people is and always will be the Conservative party who pursue power and then use it for the benefits of themselves and their wealthier supporters… ”
Do you really believe this? Do you honestly believe that this is the case?
93. I was trying to be analytical rather than partisan, Augustus, but I can understand you mistrusting my motives.
What this does illustrate is a broad generalisation about party supporters. Tories tend to be calculating and pragmatic, Labourites tend to be ideological and emotional. I’d always thought of LibDems as warm-hearted and hopeful (if misguided), but Mark Senior’s comments suggest at least some of them are merely bitter and twisted.
101. against a government that was unpopular and an opposition that wasnt much better they only gained a few seats. ever since the tories have been rebuilding while the lib dems have lost councillors, lost leaders, and lost support in the polls.
104 is that the real Mark or some Mark Senile imposter?
103.
CPI now 2.5 up from 2.2 = +14%
So even the fiddled figures are looking grim now.
107. forgot about that.
This sounds more like a description of New Labour to me: ” a party who pursue power and then use it for the benefits of themselves and their wealthier supporters… ”
103. The BoE is dithering - worrying about inflation when its already on its way due to £1 = €1.25 and oil at $110 a barrel with the pound not gaining on the dollar.
An interest rate cut is badly needed asap - look at the fed - no doubt the Brown do nothing plan will come back to haunt us.
75: Not having a method of holding onto their seats in the South and hoping to pick up enough in Labour areas to replace them is a losing strategy for the Lib Dems.
One of the big problems that the Conservatives could have is inheriting an economy where it is very difficult to do anything that will turn it around.
That is why in some respects Osbourne is being so closeted about his strategy going forward.
This is the same Mark Senior that spouted utter drivel about the Liberal Democrat’s position in East Anglia only a week or so ago. Your bluff was called then, sir.
In fact I apologise to the majority of Liberal Democrats whom I have met, who seem to be genuinely well meaning and mannered folks. It is a shame that idiots like Mark Senior publically tarnish the rest.
112 - and, talking of fiddled figures - have you seen that the Retail Price Index has stayed at 4.1%, a rise of NIL since January, while the Consumer Price Index has risen 14%, food is up around 9%, mortgage rates are racing upwards despite the cut in the BoE base rate. I think someone, somewhere, is telling little porkies!!
107 “There was no decapitation strategy against Labour ministers. Why?”
Because there were no Government Ministers in seats with majorities over the Lib Dems of less than 2,500 votes! Look at the electoral arithmetic.
106
Agreed but even the Conservatives when at their worst wanted power. I do not consider the LDs are serious in wanting power otherwise they would follow different actions: eg target weakest seats of anyone, have a careful consideration of what they want in a leader rather than a hasty election .. and agree a long term strategy.
Targetting strong seats is a waste of time and resources and bad for morale. they need a few wins under their belt. They remind me of Keegan’s Newcastle: lots of enthusiasm, some good players and a complete vacuum in thinking at the top… (apologies to anyone unfortunate enough to support Newcastle).
115-Yes but that is what the Fed is there to do.Its remit is to promote growth.
Even if inflation was going much higher in the states the Fed may cut rates in the short term to get the economy moving.
The Old Lady has no such remit
107 HF. There was no decapitation policy against Labour Cabinet Ministers because none of them were in Labour/Lib Dem marginals !!
119. Must be due to the fall in memory sticks and muffins.
94 My own suspicion is that the LibDems will be lucky to come out of the next election with modest losses. A policy of trying to hold on to what they’ve got, together with some adroit targeting of resources on some vulnerable Labour seats, may just allow them to do this.
I really doubt the Libdems will take any Tory seats that they failed to take in 2005 (unless there are local factors, e.g., possibly North Wiltshire, but even there I’d favour the dislikeable James Gray to hang on).
I think the “Senior Philosophy” of aligning the LibDems with Labour and attacking Tory-LibDem marginals will lead to much more substantial losses.
Does anyone on this site think that the Tories will be able to persuade Lib Dem voters in London to cast their second preferences for Boris/
122. I think that the BoE remit needs to be changed in this emergency - it cannot keep interest rates high to control inflation - the plunging pound makes fiddling irrelevant - the economy is heading for a bump if they dont.
121 - As a Lib Dem voting, Newcastle supporter I would almost think that comment was aimed directly at me… but I’m blind enough to disagree with most of both parts of your analogy
103 lower euro interest rates would have no effect on the mortgage market but locking the pound to the euro at parity would be quite funny but isn’t going to happen; your 25% should really be about 0.25%.
68 Mark Senior should definitely win ‘poster of the year’ for writing the Labour party’s election strategy in one sentence. Mark’s outbursts are getting funnier by the day and I dread to think of the level of humourless apoplexy he will reach by the time of the GE.
thanks Mike amd Jan from Norway - I have put more on Boris and now have him at odds from 2-1 down to 6-4. I now wonder at what odds I need Ken to be to back him and lock in my gains.
123 Phil Woolas is a counter-example.
“I find it curious that the main cheerleaders for the “Lib Dems Must Attack Labour” approach all seem to be active Conservatives.”
Like Mike Smithson?
If (as seems likely) the Conservative vote rises sharply at the next election, then the Lib Dems may pick up a seat or two from them, but will lose quite a few seats in return.
If (as seems likely) the Labour vote drops sharply at the next election, then there’s an opportunity to make gains at Labour’s expense. Labour seats like Islington South, Hampstead & Kilburn, Oxford East, Rochdale (notionally Labour), Aberdeen South, Edinburgh South, Newcastle North, Liverpool Wavertree, Blaydon, Oldham East, are all potentially vulnerable to the Lib Dems, and it’s not hard to see where they should be aiming to win.
If you think the Tories really are the enemies of the British people, while Labour are basically well-meaning but misguided, then I suppose it makes sense to concentrate your fire on the Conservatives, but it’s not a winning strategy, IMO.
Harry F A rate cut would push the Pound down against the Dollar and oil would be more expensive, more inflation would be imported. There would be further devaluation against the Euro and no additional exports would be made in the medium or longer term.
Mind you, I suppose they will still do it in April, although it makes no sense in terms of meeting the inflation target when RPI, which is much more representative, is still above 4%.
The ECB have consistently made it clear that killing inflation is their first and main priority and if they have to raise rates to do it, then so be it.
The result is the confidence shown in the Euro reflected in the 15% appreciation against the Pound.
121 madasafish. The straegies for power are different because the Conservatives and Lib Dems are in different electoral places and make decisions accordingly.
As they say it isn’t rocket science !!
133. but as has been pointed out, the decapitation strategy against the tories in 2005 failed miserably, and in fact led to some lib dems seats going tory. a continuing plan that involves this at its core for the lib dems would lead to them losing even more seats at the next election. targetting marginal labour and some very marginal tory seats would be a better bet, but just targetting the tories would just bring about even more failure.
132. Sorry oil is already more expensive, inflation has already been imported. People are not spending money on luxuries they are spending to get to work and eat. We are heading for stagflation - high inflation and low (negative) growth. All this is made worse by Labour upping the tax take.
130 Gynfa. Not a cabinet minister … Thankfully !!
131 It’s been a winning strategy for a while, but in any case it’s simply the right thing to do.
Don’t underestimate the potential damage an anti Labour strategy could do to the Lib Dems in the south. A huge proportion of the Lib Dem vote down here is strategic. Making Labour voters unable to back the Lib Dems could lose them a fair few seats down here. With so many councils being exclusively LD/Tory, there are huge risks for the LDs in cozying up to the Tories.
119 answers 115. If the banks and building societies aren’t passing on interest rate cuts, what’s the point in the BofE cutting them?
116/120 - and that electoral arithmetic can change, but it might take two or more elections.
If the LDs are only concerned about the number of MPs after the next election then I suppose they have to pour their heart and soul into defending what they have won off the Tories, though they will still lose some.
But if they take a longer-term view (which they should have done last time) then they will try to defend what they can in the South (via localised campaigns, power of incumbency etc.) but focus on getting close to Labour in the urban North [and probably pulling off a few shock victories on 10%+ swings, to boot].
I do not think that Britain’s electoral centre of gravity could support a two-party system of Lab v LD. However it could, I think, support Con v LD (all the more so if Scotland were to gain its independence). Whether the LD’s truly hunger after national power is of course an as yet unanswered question.
134 cuddles. I know of no seat that went Tory because of the decapitation stategy.
Lib Dems are indeed warmhearted and hopeful, Baskerville (109). It’s just that when the Tories get into power, we see all too clearly that they “pursue power and then use it for the benefits of themselves and their wealthier supporters”, as Marcus says (108). They always have done and presumably always will do. Or are you trying to tell me that Cameron is different?
Labour are just the same of course, and you don’t even need to change the words “wealthier supporters”.
It is this sort of cynicism that sometimes prevents Lib Dems from being our normal warmhearted and hopeful selves.
134 In the 100 or so seats where the Conservatives and Lib Dems finished first and second in 2001, there was actually a swing of about 1% from Lib Dem to Conservative in 2005. The Lib Dems actually did well to keep their net loss to the Conservatives at 2 seats, but in turn, most Conservative MPs increased their majorities over the Lib Dems, making future gains much harder.
The overall increase in Lib Dem support came at the expense of Labour, exclusively.
Re mayoral election could the UKIP turnout be a deciding factor
Laat time they got 115 k votes 1st pref and 193 2nd pref compared to Norris 542k 1st and 222 k 2nd . So UKIP got almost as many 2nd preference votes as Norris . My feeling is the UKIP mood was stronger last time - but is much weaker now - and in voting for a London Mayor - UK independence does not somehow seem so relevant
If UKIP vote falls it seems fairly safe to assume that most of it will go to Boris - a significant change in just the UKIP vote alone will go a long way to get Boris over the line
142. thanks for that
137 If they’re attacking Labour from the Right, then such votes are vulnerable. If they’re attacking Labour as a rival left wing party, then I think not.
137. nobodies saying anything about cozying up to the tories, its just a better strategy may be to attack labour more and the tories less.
145 Please Explain. The position of “opposition” LD groups on councils in the South East would be very dodgy.
146 No. If the LDs want the support of Labour voters, they should attack the Tories.
140 - Tim Collins, Education spokesman, in Westmorland. Yeah, there’s always an exception to prove the rule
147 I think they should view themselves as being in the same position as Labour in the 1920s, who certainly opposed the Conservatives, but regarded the Liberals as rivals to be eclipsed, even if that benefitted the Conservatives in the short term in some areas.