Make money guessing what Dave’s first subject will be?
March 19th, 2008
Launching the new market - betting on Prime Minister’s Questions
The bookmakers, Ladbrokes has launched what could develop into a fascinating weekly betting market - What will be the topic of David Cameron’s first question at PMQs?
Normally the most watched and most speculated about moment in the commons each week happens just after midday on Wednesdays when the opposition leader gets to his feet and starts the first of the six questions he is allowed to put to the Prime Minister. The latter has no idea what is coming though clearly he can guess. The former can often try to wrong-foot Brown by taking a tangential approach and not starting with the obvious.
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It’s said that prime ministers spend hours on Wednesday morning preparing for the confrontation and certainly Gordon is no exception. But what is Cameron going to start on? Brown doesn’t know - we don’t know but now we can bet on it.
This could be tricky and there was no better example than the first PMQs after the Northern Rock nationalisation. This surely was the certain topic that Cameron would lead on and clearly Brown had a well thought out sound-bite all ready. Not so. Dave split his questions into two batches and the first had nothing to do with NR. Then Nick Clegg came in with his allocated two questions and probed on Northern Rock.
Brown then used his pre-rehearsed anti-Tory sound-bite only to find that Cameron’s second phase of questions was to probe an aspect of the nationalisation plan where he thought the government was weak. Brown had used his sound-bite and looked flummoxed.
These were the opening prices for today’s PMQs
Childcare/Family issues 3/1
China/Tibet 7/2
Budget/Taxes 4/1
Economy/Banking/Stock Market 4/1
Iraq/Afghanistan 8/1
Schools/Education 10/1
Crime/Policing 14/1
Kosovo 14/1
ImmigrationAsylum| 16/1
Iran 16/1
NHS/Health 16/1
Environment/Green Issues 20/1
MPs Pay/Allowances 20/1
European Union 25/1
London Mayoral Election 25/1
Terrorism/National Security 25/1
Transport 25/1
Gambling 100/1
The Economy/Banking/Stockmarket option at 4/1 has been the most backed and last night Ladbrokes had tightened this to 4/5. The market should be up by 9 am and will be closed at 11.am You can link to it when it opens from here
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When you’re getting 16% leads in the opinion polls, you can probably ask about whatever you like. Nick Clegg is going with Gurkha veteran’s rights: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7300521.stm
so Cameron won’t be able to use the trick you mention above.
I’d agree that the Economy is the obvious topic to go for, but I don’t see much value at 4/5 and Cameron still doesn’t seem to have much to say about it, other than his line about not saving for a rainy day.
If 3/1 is still going, talking about families seems to be where Cmaeron is at the moment - he can contrast his plans for extra parental leave with the Government’s plans to target the most challenging thousand or so children - ‘the party of the many has become the party of the few.’
Interesting times…shame I cannot post so much at the moment but am still dropping in to read most days.
If I were him I would compare the sale of Bear Stearns to NR fiasco and go with GB the pm who can’t decide on anything. 4/5 is a terrible price. The overound is over 200, it’s a novelty mkt for publicity and should be avoided.
I see the new NYC gov. has been in the news for hotels orgies. They’ll all it you know.
OT. I’ve just listened to Obama’s speech on race and it was seriously impressive. i can’t understand why he has been wasting his time with that Southern preacher ‘Yes we can’ nonsense that he’s been spouting for the last several months. He’s a genuinely impressive candidate when he stops acting and shows the danger of living on soundbites. I suspect he’ll make a very good president.
3
Yes, good speech well read, and he’s up 2.6pts on Intrade to 74.6.
More importantly, gold has collapsed so I’m very happy.FTSE to open +50 @ 5650, GB is safe….. for now.
The Express admit on their front page that they’re rubbish. Is it possible that any of their readers didn’t already know that?
An amazing new market from ladbrokes.
That they can offer, even for a short time (and obviously to only very small stakes), shows how detached the political class is from any sort of betting.
No wonder UK gambling legislation is poor. None of our political masters is interested in it.
How about Post offices, since that is opposition day debate this afternoon and its aimed at embarrassing the government.
6
What? The 4/5 price was 3/1 when the mkt opened, someone has been lumping on - insider trading?
OT
Meanwhile Next, the clothes store has reported this AM and the outlook is very poor.
2008 OUTLOOK
Retail Economy
We can see no reason why there should be any recovery in consumer spending
during the year ahead. Recent base rate cuts will do little to reduce the
overall burden of mortgage repayments as they will be partially offset by the
expiry of fixed rate mortgages which were set at lower rates than those
prevailing today. This combined with increases in fuel, tax and other essential
household costs mean that it will be at least twelve months before the consumer
has a stable year on year cost base.
The Next customer profile is dominated by ABC1 25-45 year olds, who are likely
to be hit hardest as their exposure to the costs of debt are high.
Roger - how is it possible for you to make 2 posts I agree with in the space of 20 minutes; this has never happened before!!
Cammo surely has to go on something left field like the Gurkhas - a clear case of right/wrong. Gordon will bluster his way through any tax or economy questions
8,
Thats not right. Next management must full of Tory Doomsters. The economy is in great shape.
5
Are The Express and Star both earned by Desmond? He owns the Express for sure.
4. Before Cuddles and Mark Senior join EDW in getting excited about a possible 50 point rise in the FTSE, we actually need a rise of more than 950 points just to get it back to the level at which that dear Mr Blair left it only 266 days ago.
For the record, in the 2431 days from its start on 2nd April 1984 to 28th November 1990 - under the stewardship of Margaret Thatcher - the FTSE rose from 1108.1 to 2144.3, a gain of 1036.2 points or up 93.51%.
In the 2347 days from 28th November 1980 to 2nd May 1997 - with poor old John Major in the hot seat - the FTSE rose from 2144.3 to 4455.6, a gain of 2311.3 points or up 107.79%.
In the 3708 days from 2nd May 1997 to 27th June 2007 - with Tony Blair in charge but ably supported by the greatest Chancellor ever to walk this earth - the FTSE rose from 4455.6 to 6559.3, a gain of 2103.7 points or up just 47.21%.
In the 266 days since Saint Tony left, Gordon Brown has presided over a drop in the FTSE from 6559.3 to 5605.8, a loss of 953.5 points or down 14.54%.
A fifty point rise this morning would be no more than a spit in the bucket.
These are remarkable times. Since July 2007 we have witnessed a seismic shift in the global economy. It was articulated on PB.com back in July that we were due a ‘liquidity crunch’ (i.e. a ‘credit crunch’) of epic proportions – articulated in meticulous detail by various posters. Well done. Weeks later ‘so-called’ experts, the central bankers, were proved wrong on the global economy and the posters here proved right.
Events have moved on, and we now need a new analysis to predict where we go from here.
It was said here in July we were due a credit crunch because of a global orgy of debt fuelled speculation and consumer spending in the West. Instrumental were unconstrained bank lending, and the carry trade.
Notoriously inept bankers gorging on debt creation unconstrained by effective political checks in the UK, America or Japan fuelled a global debt bubble. The way in which bankers can create money out of thin air through loan creation is one of the greatest scandals of modern times. Systematic abuses create boom and bust decade after decade, and the bankers that cause it go unpunished, as people less informed assume these recessions are being caused by cycles like the weather. House price rises do not make a country richer. Housing is a cost, not an asset. The higher the cost of housing, the higher the cost of living and the poorer a country gets . Japan endured a 10 year recession in the 1990’s following their own debt-fuelled property bubble.
How can we be foolish enough to hand control of the economy to bankers with a vested interest in unconstrained ‘debt creation’, wreaking periodic destruction on that economy. The history of the Federal Reserve in the USA is a history of economic disaster – nearly all of it avoidable, the most notorious example being the Great Depression – which began with a debt bubble created just 10 years after the creation of the Federal Reserve, with the crunch 7 years later. Ben Bernanke ‘knows nothing about economics’. A chap who spent much time studying the Great Depression seems to know nothing about why it occurred or how it is cured. Consider the following analogy.
A town of healthy people is visited by a ‘witch doctor’. The ‘so-called’ doctor is greatly respected by the people of the town who believe he is an expert in health and medicine. The witch doctor proceeds to visit his healthy patients and one-by-one tells them they are infected with ‘evil spirits’ and need to take a special medicine to cure them. The witch doctor, of course, makes a handsome fee on the medicine and become rich. Many taking his medicine suffer side effects, including nausea and vomiting. Eventually a number of his patients get very, very sick. Relatives anguished with worry call the witch-doctor, who in a very serious and sober way tells them, the patients are at deaths door. He prescribes the cure – 10 times as much ‘medicine’ as the patients took before. Unsurprisingly all the patients die.
In a nutshell you now know what really caused the Great Depression, and what has caused the current credit crunch. In the modern world we have people called bankers who may or may not have some qualifications in economics. Economics is an immature discipline which imparts little or no useful knowledge – hence the witch doctors of the modern era, bankers and economists. Their primary motive is to make money through issuing loans (i.e. their medicine). The witch doctors tell the patients they are ill because they don’t have enough money to spend, and ‘loans’ are the medicine. The more power a country gives to these ‘witch-doctors’ the faster it is destroyed through inflation. Of course, the bankers know this so adopt ‘false accounting’ methods to conceal the illness of the patients for as long as possible.
In the USA for example, only the most draconian ‘false accounting’ laws in the world, which impose 20 year prison sentences on CEO’s of American corporations can prevent systemic false accounting such as the Enron example. The same fraud is being perpetuated by governments advised by bankers with a vested interest in debt-creation. In America, the UK, and Japan bankers and donate to governing parties who then as governments do their bidding and have colluded to introduce systemic ‘false accounting’ in the compilation of inflation figures over the last 15 years. In the UK the stink has become so bad that they have actually had to rename the Office of National Statistics from April 2008. Inflation and crime data are distrusted by 90% of the population. The board of the NSA is nominated by Brown, just like the ONS. Much like the MPC, they are not really independent.
Whereas politicians are highly visible and accountable for their decisions the MPC and ONS members are not, and in the case of the MPC have a vested a debt-fuelled bubble as big as possible. Look at the minutes of MPC meeting where the refer to the ‘expectations’ of bankers as the basis of their decisions on interest rates!
Giving independence to the Bank of England was the most foolish act of economic policy in the last 100 years, lauded only by those who have no real understanding of economics. Eminent senators in the US are now calling for the Federal Reserve to be abolished and Bernanke replaced. The MPC should be abolished.
‘Inflation’ is a term with a clear and precise scientific meaning – based on change in prices and weights assigned to prices. While the ONS reports CPI of 2.5%, Capital Economics says it is 6.1% and rising. In the US while the Federal Reserve says inflation is 2% independent analysts say it is 10and has been much higher for a number of years. Someone is guilty of false-accounting. Who do you feel is telling the truth?
In 2003 Gordon Brown changed the MPC inflation measure from RPI to CPI, knowing CPI excludes 40% of goods and services, and is not a valid measure of inflation. Inflation is underreported, interest rates are kept artificially low, a debt driven bubble grows ever greater, which bursts causing the first run on a bank in 150 years - Northern Rock, and the loss of as much as £20 billion to the UK taxpayer through underwriting its loans (20% of Northern Rock loans are highly likely to default or are already defaulting).
Kingbongo. And I was just returning to suggest betting on the Gurkahs!
5 Agreed Roger …. A truly awful
Have to say the London Mayorals at 25/1 might be worth a small punt..
Big things seem to be happening on the ground locally and keeping the momentum going would be a tactically sound.
A truly awful rag !
I predict education. The Tories are still sore that Balls got away with his blatant ’schools are charging for admission’ spin to obscure the fact that huge numbers of parents are not getting kids into first choice schools.
Why does`nt Cameron say due to changed circumstances tax cuts are required alongside public spending.
This is a 1000-1 chance because honesty on all sides is missing, as they prefer to carry on with the cosy consensus of agreeing with each other.
Looks like we are going back to life on mars 1973, Heath v Wilson.
Brown v Cameron.
1 - “not saving for a rainy day” may be a line, but it is a very good one. It’s just basic financial management. One only has to look (on a much smaller scale, obviously) at local councils up and down the country. Some are well run, budget prudently, and are always careful to put money to one side, not just because it is a buffer against raising taxes when inflation rises or the Govt gives poor settlements (”the rainy day”), but because it is a source of extra income in itself. Whereas others spend all the money they have, taxes end up rising constantly and borrowing is a constant drain on their finances.
Which two authorities have the lowest council tax in the country? And what is their extra requirement on their taxpayers in the coming year? 0%.
Tory Boy. Talking about Mayors…..I think I’m pretty close to needing some address details off you.
18 - because tax cuts in this country can’t be promised in this country without explaining where the money is going to come from. And with the finances in their present state they can hardly promise to fund them from borrowing.
20. PS. I don’t suppose you would settle for half (£100) if I conceded now?
12 You really no very little about stock markets and the way they change with time and in relation to economic news and outlook . Still I do hope the FTSE goes up again today , it will stop the sky is falling in posts from the Conservative headless chicken doomsters on here for a little while .
How do I put a bet on post offices?
23,
Of course the footsie will go up this morning. Does nothing for its long term trend though does it? The weak fundamentals (highlighted by next)are still there are the footsie will be lucky if it finishes the year were it is now.
Or do you fail too see that?
21, I said Tax cuts alongside cuts in public spending.
Thats how you pay for them.
And public spending will be adjusted downwards whoever wins the next election.
But they don`t want to inform us just yet.
23. That comment would have been cutting if it had come from someone who had demonstrated even the smallest indication that they knew what they were talking about. However as it came from you….
The economy is in a massively perilous state and the true Broon legacy is the same as any other Labour Chancellor..it just took him longer to run out of money because of the growth in the global economy…
I for one hope we survive a recession but I wouldn’t want to bet either way..
Mark,
Do you seriously believe that the footsie going up this morning means that the economy is in good shape?
Where is SeanT?- only a 25-1 chance of the European Union being Cameron’s subject. Does the man not know how much this matters to people in this country!!! (You are in this country aren’t you Sean?)
re 3. Great see see that Roger - so I assume you are rescinging comment 1 on this thread -
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/26/could-this-man-be-the-next-president-of-the-united-states/#comment-53590
re 29. Unlike SeanT Icarus, Cameron reads the polls and knows that almost nobody gives a damn about the EU
23 Mark, please refrain from posting whether the FTSE is up or down.
Because [1] anyone interested in the FTSE can find out its value with the click of a mouse, and so it is unecessary,
And [2] the FTSE is always moving, and if you endlessly post small movements, it clogs up the thread.
Please can we have some more of the “Conservatives are the most evil lifeform in the Universe” comments. They’re my favourite.
25 Shares go up shares go down and not always in line with the current economic state , it is interesting that the Dow closed higher yesterday than it did 12 months ago although it had been higher for much of the intervening 12 months .
27 There will not be a recession in this country , we have not got a Conservative government , they are the party which always has a recession when in power .
27 of course we will survive a recession - and in 15 years this will happen all over again as the public decide they need a government that splurges their money and that their house is a never-ending source of free money.
33 Wish granted! Thanks!
23. Gosh - a Mark Senior post I half agree with. The media obesession - carried over here, unfortunately - with how the stock market does is somewhat annoying to economists who are trying to explain what is going on, or predict what is likely to. The relationship between the buoyancy of the stock market and the health of an economy is loose at best. In the very short term of a day or two, it is practically non-existant.
In terms of assessing the economy’s health, there are all sorts of indicators that are better than the stock market, though even there, none is that useful in isolation. However, a combination of the trade deficit / surplus, savings ratio, amount of investment, growth rate, inflation rate, government borrowing requirement, unemployment rate and the nature of how each of these indicators ranks against other countries and is changing over time wouldn’t be a bad starting point. There are probably other ones I’ve missed as well.
32 No problem Gwynfa but will the doomsters stop making disaster posts every time the Dow or FTSE drops a fraction .
Ha, this is hilarious. Can we also bet on how many times Gordon will stutter or fail to answer a question?
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
12. grrrrrrrrrr, put me in the same sentance as mark senior will you !
36 A David Herdson post I almost totally agree with .
30. Mike. Yes I am! (Or should that be ‘Yes we can’?)
I not only think he’s now going to win but more importantly he’s going to be a worthy winner. When I made that infamous ‘Post 1′ !’d underestimated how far the US had changed. But more importantly i’m embarrassed that the likes of seanT could see his virtues before me!
I understand that the poor councillor in in Slough has been expelled from the Conservatives “Conservatives are the most evil lifeform in the Universe” - Gwynfa.
Some technicality about postal votes, apparently.
Seriously, who is responsible for the voting system, is it the Electoral Commission or the Government?
25/1 on the mayoral elections sounds like amazing value to me, especially as the campaign officially launched yesterday.
“Please can we have some more of the “Conservatives are the most evil lifeform in the Universe” comments. They’re my favourite”
Mine too!!.
42.mostly the government, they brought in wide ranging measures such as widespread postal voting etc to get turnout up. Instead all they did was create a system rife with fraud that is difficult to police.
30-32- the mischevous posters are out in force today
It’s got to be post offices.
I’d go with something like “Was the PM right to sell off tons of gold at under $300 per ounce?” or suchlike. It’s very specific, ties in with the current global turmoil and Brown can’t possibly deny it.
The NR/Bear Stearns comparison would also work well.
47. some insider info? ‘wink wink, nudge nudge’ say no more!
There are stones in my garden, and there are no Tigers. That means the stones keep the Tigers away.
Logic according to Mark Senior.
36 - The great benefit of the FTSE is that it is one of the all too few statistical bases NOT capable of being fiddled by the Treasury/Chancellor.
As a measure of the overall value of our top 100 companies - in which most of us have an interest, if only because our pension funds are invested in them - it is a fair indication of how we are doing.
Of course short term movements are, in and of themselves, not particularly important. It really doesn’t take an economist to tell us that.
That it why the figures I gave earlier in this thread covered 24 years of data - not just today’s rise of 37 points (as I write).
I heard labour mp stephen pound talking about the sale of cheap gold by Gormless Gordon, his reply was yes but we spent it on good things. So that’s okay then.
$990 spot price. Nice one.
I said post offices in post 7, I do wonder if its too obvious though.
34. I actaully meant avoid going into a recession at all rather survive the event itself of course…I am betting most (though not all judging by the age of some of us) would survive one.
33.May have missed something but is Mark Senior suggesting that there has never been a recession under a Labour government…as I noted yesterday it really is difficult to tell whether or not its the bearded anorak himself posting or his vastly more informed and humerous alter ego.
49. It’s all over the BBC news today so Cameron would be guaranteed a soundbite. Lots of Labour MPs agree with the tory motion, so it ties in with the ‘free vote’ questions he made last week. And also it’s just a pretty risk-free middle england crowd-pleaser. I’m surprised it’s not on the list. Maybe the bookies have some insider knowlegde. *nudge nudge wink wink*
36
Quite right. Financial markets what do they know?
I prefer Mystic Darling who has a weekly column in TitBits.
54 ahhh - I did think it sounded a bit apocalyptic
55. think they’ll be a minor revolt with some labour MP’s?
“What did the Prime Minister think of my hair in my latest ‘I’m Blair 2′ kitchen sink drama documentary?”
55,
Which is one of the reasons why Cameron may not use it as his first question - Brown my have a prepared reposte.
Cameron may go for Tibet, given Browns comments during the week on Chinese local democracy.
58. I would have thought so. This is the main issue in many towns and villages and MPs have been coming under a lot of pressure from their constituents. If I was in a marginal, I would be pretty clear which side my bread was buttered.
60 - or even Czecheslovakia, ho ho.
61. true, our local MP has been coming under some pressure. after the closures my area will have half its post offices gone and only one main one left, which is already packed most of the time. be a lot worse now.
60. You might be right. The fact that Livingstone has now backed post offices might stop him. On the other hand, the fact that Livingstone criticised government policy on this yesterday would give Cameron a quote to run with. It would be good to know what the odds are.
dunno if this has been put before.
from Sian Berry, the green party candidate:
“He hates that we celebrate each other’s heritage; he hates that we try to pass on a healthy environment to our children; he hates that we look after our most vulnerable neighbours; and most of all he hates that we all expect to share in our city’s financial success. And if he’s elected he will do his best to destroy all of that.”
little bit personal and nasty from the green party.
Yes, given Ken Judical Review, I go Post Offices.
65. Where’s that from? Do you have a link?
20 Hi Roger,
If that’s a serious request, of course I will.
I’m more than happy to take you as a man of honour ; a donation to
your nearest branch of the Royal British Legion will suffice.
Kind regards
TB
67. nope, sorry.
49. Cuddles “47. some insider info? ‘wink wink, nudge nudge’ say no more!’
I thought you were 25! You haven’t been sneaking a look at your Dad’s old VHS’s again have you?
Oh it’s the Labour-Green joint statement to be made today.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/18/london08.politicalnews
70. nope, monty python is still popular among the youth of today dontcha know.
71. ta very much. allthat attack will do is create sympathy for boris.
72. Like the attacks on Livingstone did?
73. well. ever since labour began attacking him at their conference a couple of weeks ago, boris seems to have moved ahead in the polls.
74. The problem wasn’t the negative campaigning but that they were attacking the wrong areas. All the nazi toff stuff was a complete waste of time and made them look ridiculous. They should concentrate instead on the competence angle.
Tell it not in Gath, publish it not in the streets of Askelon; lest the Tory doomsayers rejoice, lest the real economists triumph.
The good news is that we won’t be getting stock market updates from Mark Senior for a little while.
71. Newt/Hippy alliance .dear god what strange bed fellows and what monstrous off-spring that would spawn…
Boris can be attacked in lots of ways..personally the competence angle seems the best bet from labour..these viscious attacks with no basis in reality just dont ring true against fluffy Boris.
They did against, for instance, Michael Howard but Boris…? It makes me think that this is very much aimed at getting his core out to vote but I am guessing would not play well with any person with more than two brain cells or who does not have a Q’uaran in his back pocket.
75
Agreed Boris eats black babies won’t cut it. I think Grasper has done for Livingstone. Those sex pest emails were worth about 3%+ alone.
It’s fitting if not ironic that it was, to an extent, race which will end his KL’s career. Saying he would give Grasper his job back was the final straw.
The Livingstone-Berry nexus speaks volumes about the Livingstone-Paddick relationship. Why cosy up to the Greens, whose voters will almost certainly back Ken second anyway, if the Lib Dems’ endorsement was in play?
79. I doubt Clegg would authorise any party alliances at this time.
75. true, however after all the revelations over wasted money and the less jasper debacle, attacking boris’s competence seems like hypocracy.
76 The bad news is that prats like you will continue with your doommongering .
75: Anything Ken or his Labour lackeys say about Boris will fall flat, they need to Swift Boat him.
How about a book on who will be the first government minister to be wheeled out to say that there’s nothing wrong with the electoral system and it takes all issues of voting fraud seriously and has addressed all the problems?
80, what could Clegg do if Paddick defied him?
85. Cry.
As a gentle observation on Mark Senior I note that he prefers to look at the micro level to forecast future macro level changes.
Hence we have the focus on local by elections and one day FTSE changes, as something very significant.
Me, I think we need to look at the overall trends such as annual council elections and national polls to forecast the macro level of a future GE.
78: “It’s fitting if not ironic that it was, to an extent, race which will end his KL’s career.” We know from the discussion of Enoch about your views on race, EDW, but you do realise that your candidate hasn’t actually won yet?
re 84 the sad truth about the postal vote system is that it was created under the leadership of John Prescott.
Enough said?
68. Tory boy. It’s done. A cheque for £100 is winging it’s way to the British Legion Pall Mall. Well done on your bet. Even money at the time would have been ridiculously generous of you if it hadn’t been a charity bet.
As it is I feel noble sending the check and you can feel virtuous for winning it. If by some freak chance Ken should win I’ll send Christies Hospital the money they would have won and let you know so we can both feel virtuous all over again!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/19/ccjeff119.xml
Jeff Randall dismantles Greenspans reputation. Does anyone know if he’s still Gordon Brown’s special advisor ??
52. What an idiot Pound is. The proceeds of the gold sales weren’t ’spent’ on anything. They were invested in foreign currencies instead. The composition of the reserves was changed, that’s all.
Meanwhile, another example of this government’s willingness to waste colossal sums on politically correct nonsense. Sinn Fein says Bloody Sunday inquiry ‘not necessary’.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/19/northernireland.northernireland3
88 Mr Nick. Political parties that have been in power for too long become so arrogant that they turn a blind eye to malfeasance in their ranks. All power corrupts…..
It happened to the Conservatives in the 1990s and is happening to Labour in Govt and in London, right now.
Iraq may be worth a punt as its the 5th anniversary and the opposition are pushing for an inquiry
John Redwood may be socially inept but he sums up the govts handling of Northern Rock perfectly@
Monday 17th March: “A quick haggle, a visit to the lawyers, and a bank is bought and rescued over a week-end in New York. That’s the way to do it. It makes the UK’s attempted private sector rescue of Northern Rock look ham fisted, long winded and ultimately unsuccessful in comparison. “
78. Agreed. The irony of it all is truly delightful. The man who cynically played the race card over and over again brought down by the issue is simply delicious.
Nothing like it since the fall of Jonathan Wild ‘thieftaker’ or Robespierre’s appointment with Mme La Guillotine.
o/t
just a little snippet update from the OK polling report reproduced below..
UPDATE: Tables now up on ICM’s website here. The difference between the lead here and the lead in YouGov’s poll was actually mostly down to ICM’s topline adjustment for the “spiral of silence” - the theory that some people who say don’t know are actually supporters of an unpopular party who are too bashful to admit it to the interviewer. While people still refer to this an as adjustment to make up for “shy Tories”, for the past five years at least it’s normally favoured “shy Labourites”. This month ICM’s unadjusted figures would have been CON 43%, LAB 28%, LDEM 21%.
93
So what?
Meanwhile in the Democratic candidate race betfair has the best odds on OB at 1.39 (Paddy Power only pays 1.29)
Betfair also have the best price on HC at 3.8 (VC offers only 3s)
64,
It would. I suspect quite low though.
I can’t understand this post office thing. Who goes there anymore? Pensions and benefits are usually paid to your bank, car tax can now be done online, and you can buy stamps anywhere in the unlikely event that you want to use snail-mail. Just about the only reason for going into one is to get a passport application form - and you only have to do that every ten years.
98 madasafish. Maybe “So what” to be the line that Cameron runs with at PMQs?
97 Maggie Thatcher Fan, thanks for pointing out the ICM update. A 15 point lead with ICM (unadjusted for shyness) does help explain the 16 pointer from Yougov.
But are shy Labour supporters likely to bother voting?
101. It may seem like that Mike for people like myself living in London, but if you’re in a one horse village where the pub has closed down and the post office/village shop is about to go, then they suddenly become a lot more important.
@ 4. Gold has collapsed? at $1006 per ounce? And FTSE up 50?? Hmm, at 09:50 it was DOWN 50 at 5550. GB is on a slipping downhill towards the abyss
O/T - Bank shares down quite sharply, HBOS off by 8% or so. One wonders what the sellers think they know or have heard?
Interesting thing opinion polls. Does anyone actually think that if somehow a general election was called today, and held soon after, the Tories would win by 15 or 16 percent. No doubt Labour would lose, but I doubt the margin would be so large. Does anyone else agree? The act of calling the election alone would change things. So what value are the polls so far out as a predctive tool? A vehicle for protest only perhaps?
Clearly this is a time for a Labour supporter to be in a philosophical mood.
Returning to the original post I will take some of 25/1 about National Security etc.
Highly likely D.C. will try to take the wind out of Gord’s sails as Gord is due to make a statement later in the day regarding the same topic.
I think (hope) Cameron will go on the disgraceful way the MOD is trying to gag coroners for being critical of the MOD when soldiers are killed because of MOD neglect. Quite disgraceful!
The other choice should be something topical. Maybe the way inflation is being calculated and the face the public knows through their every day experiance that inflation is above the governments official figure.
105. Roger’s Barclays investment is just looking better and better
106,
The Tories would win a majority so would have a double digit lead.
Ooooooo of course, post office closures is another sure bet, I would think.
Mark Senior.Your posts are so weird.Is it supposed to be funny- or just old-fashioned EHM?In last thread, you accused Cons of wanting financial disaster to achieve power- totally crazy.Pension funds? Inflation? Exchange rate? Savings? In the nursery where you belong, its called cutting off your nose to spite your face.You have no respect for people with other opinions- who believe that the policies of this government are (and always have been)a disaster.
To be fair banks are just giving back all yesterdays gains.
Barclays still above their low.
102
I always thought that Labour voters were less likely to vote than Tory voters so I am a bit flummoxed. Interestingly UK polling calls it a decisive change but then goes on to say that they dont know if it will last. I guess that’s even handed!!!
What I have noted on the stock market is falls followed by rises then fall then rises again, but each time the baseline is lower than before, I am told this is classic bear market activity, and that the stock market is 12-18 months ahead of what is going to happen to the economy. If true “things are only going to get better ” rings hollow now. Its going to be a rough ride.
110 Forgetting “the my party is better than yours stuff” for a minute. I think this is interesting.
I suspect if a pollster called me and asked me if I was certain to vote or who I would vote for, I suspect I would be tempted to register a protest. There is no cost to me. But if I was faced with a Cameron govt tomorrow, I would do my duty.
101: Mike, when it is your only nearby place to buy a paper, get out cash, or get basic groceries as TT says it has importance.
I agree.
The Tories are the most evil life-form in the Universe.
The Dalek race bows down before them.
We obey the Dark Power of Cameron. We obey…we obey. Please - don’t hurt us….
I’d think it ought be about Tibet, and probably will be. Virtuous first section, then something contentious for part 2.
I’m suprised you think Tibet is a virtuous cause Nick. Aren’t the Tibetans a bunch of counter revolutionary splittists in your book?
Or perhaps you were just being sarcastic.
Would the price for NR (based on Bear Stearns $2 a share) have been 25p? If so I think we might have had a few squeals from NR shareholders don’t you think. No one has asked the Bear Sterns shareholders if they mind their shares being taken from them at $2 - I am not sure it is over yet.
113 - Well the Banks are down by 1-2% in general but HBOS and Bradford & Bingley are down 8% and 6% respectively. There must be information or rumour around these two in particular.
116 - But that is never the case in London…
re 106 according to Smithson’s law, with guaranteed airtime for Dave then the Tory lead could only go up. It will be interesting to see if this natural law is confirmed in the next GE.
Re Post office - surely they should offer existing management the opportunity to run as a franchise - especially in rural districts ?
118. He only tries that tactic every now and again and he used it last week. After recent polling I think it would be much more likely that he would want to go on an all out attack.
Don’t be silly - Daleks don’t bow to anyone! - Not physically possible! (cf Cherie’s curtsey)
121 - Well the Bradford and Bingley is, like the Rock, very reliant on mortgages.
118 All this agreement going on today! Rogr talking sense. Now Nick!
Think it will be Tibet too. It will be to ask Gordon whether he will agree to meet the Dalai Lama (he started with Darfur last week - seems to be trying to play the statesman bit…) Cameron gets a Living God onside. Plus he can have a dig at “McCavity Brown” if he doesn’t get a positive answer.
52 - What exactly are the details on GB’s selling of gold reserves? (i.e. when did he sell it, how much did he sell and at what price?)
120. Bear Sterns shareholders got $2 or nothing. Without government pandering to the NE for the GE it should have been 25p or nothing. Without govt support NR would have been bust within a week.
re 108 after all strawberries have gone down and sod the fact that petrol has gone up 25% in 6 months.
If I was Cameron and I’d heard about this betting thing, it would be hard to resist having some fun every now and again.
re 120 those who bought at $2 yesterday have now trebled their money.
I confess I am surprised by the Livingstone/Green Non Aggression Pact. It looks like bad tactics for both parties. The Greens are seen as fellow travellers, and Ken alienates other second preference voters.
118. This has been an enjoyable thread. I hope Mike makes it a weekly occurence. It allows lots of topics to be brought in whilst still maintaining the common thread.
125
If i were DC , I would deconstruct what Yvette Cooper said on the R4 1pm news yesterday, It was a complete fairy tale.
re 132 I agree. I wouldn’t be surprised if some CCO minion was dispatched down to Ladbrokes to plump the party’s funds on Gambling. Would do away for the need for Lord Ashcroft.
136. what did she say?
If someone (Conservative Central Office) have a bet with someone (as an example Lord Ashcroft) about something such as the questions to be asked at PMQs and Ashcroft loses does this have to be declared as a political donation by the Conservatives?
106 If there were an election next month I think it more likely that the Conservatives would win by a lot more than 15%.
140 Really? How much more?
135 - I agree.
My money is on the post offices, because it’s an easy issue to embarrass the PM.
118,
Not agreeing with me are you Nick?
D.C. has to beware on the economy this week as Gord will counter with this news
U.K. February Unemployment Declines to Lowest Since 1975
By Brian Swint
March 19 (Bloomberg) — U.K. unemployment fell for a 17th month to a three-decade low in February, driven by last year’s economic expansion.
Claims for jobless benefits dropped 2,800 from January to 793,500, the lowest since June 1975, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists expected a decline of 5,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists. The jobless rate stayed at 2.5 percent.
Record employment may cushion the economy as higher credit costs slow the pace of growth. The Bank of England has cut interest rates twice since December to shore up spending as the economy heads for its worst performance in 16 years.
I’ll take 5/4 the economy, 3/1 bar
134 - Are you sure you’re not looking at that through the eyes of an activist? I cant see why an ordinary Lib Dem voter would be less inclined to give Ken a number 2 because he has called for a number 2 for the Green candidate.
I’m just surprised that Ken / Sian still dont seem to have learned that Ken wont win by demonising Boris because too many people like him to believe that he’s as malicious as they are trying to make out.
However there is a PO debate later - he might want to keep the Con powder dry for that.
138
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/mainframe.shtml?http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/news_promo.shtml?link
listen in at 15 minutes
88
Nick you’re obviously a bit grumpy this morning never mind, I’ll put it down to your advancing years and leave it at that.
I’m just off to get your Guardian, prune juice and elastic medicated hosiery. Won’t be long, dear.
147. cant, am at work. I’ll listen to it later though ta.
130. Indeed. And the really funny part is that after months of prevarication and vast sums of taxpayers’ money put at risk, 2000 jobs are still set to go at NR…and probably a good deal more.
So Brown & Co have nothing at all to show for their short-term political meddling..except a vast public sector liability. Much the same as in so many other policy areas.
Objectives of PMQs:
1) Sound bite for the news
2) Look good (better than opponent ) in HoC.
3) Err that it.
Would have thought that it was between Post offices and the London Mayor with Post Office - more national appeal - favourite
149
PS she said in essence that the Govt had cut debt, (untrue), accused the Tories of unfunded tax promises, and then said that we needed to put more money into the economy(err surely thats unfunded if we havent got the money). Even the BBC interviewer ssemed a bit short with her..
Don’t panic !
These rumours are making some people a killing on the SE.
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England said there is no substance to a rumour that Easter leave for MPC members has been cancelled.
‘This rumour is absolute rubbish,’ a spokesman told Thomson Financial News. There were rumours in the market that the MPC was planning to meet over rumoured emergency funding for HBOS (LSE: HBOS.L - news) .
HBOS earlier strongly denied the rumour, saying it is ‘one of the world’s strongest financial institutions, with one of the world’s strongest balance sheets.’
152. the BBC interviewers seem to be sick and tired of being spun at so much and have started acting like they’ve been to paxman boot cmap.
153 HBOS may be denying the rumours but their stock plunged 17% at one stage this morning and they’re currently still over 10% down. The next Northern Crock? Possibly, if Bradford and Bingley don’t beat them to it.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/03/19/11714/panicky-banks/
HBOS says rumour turned to BoE for funding is ‘complete and utter nonsense’
60m shares traded, the news caused the shares to rebound but only dead cat bounce. There was a rumour that the MPC had cancelled easter leave to discuss HBOS. Price down 9.3% on the day.
27 There will not be a recession in this country , we have not got a Conservative government , they are the party which always has a recession when in power .”
Oh right. So this country has never had a recession when a non-Conservative government has been in power? Why not read a bit of economic history.
What do Ladbroke’s do about combined questions?
e.g. if Cameron asks whether Brown will join him in welcoming Bozza’s plans to sort out transport in London (if indeed he has such plans) is that about the mayoral election or transport? Or if he asks why the Budget didn’t do more for working families (if indeed it didn’t) is that families or Budget?
Seems like lots of prospect for uncertainty in the result of this market.
I reckon cameron will ask at least one question about the ghurka’s.
I believe HBOS is now trading at below BV so theoretically it’s an absolute steal at these prices. Curiously nobdoy seems interested. If the government handle any HBOS liquidity problem the way they did NRK then the UK really will be in a mess banking wise.
the unemployment numbers should be boasted about by Gordon as much as possible because as a backward looking indicator they more than likely reflect the highpoint of the current cycle.
If RBS goes below 280p I’ll be back in there.
1. CCHQ could go to the official inflation calculator and come up with an inflation rate for the Brown household. Still believe it’s only 2.5%, Prime Minister?
2. Post Offices are a certain runner, but probably second, as Brown will be expecting them first and is always overstressed by the second set of questions.
Does he agree that it is honourable for his honourable friends to vote against Post Office closures this afternoon as so many of them have promised their constituents they will try to save them?
3. I’d steer clear of Tibet. It’s not a clear “China bad, plucky Tibetans good”, story.
160. Logically you are correct KB. However what happens if all over the country people with money on deposit at HBOS shart withdrawing on these rumours and putting some/all of the cash elsewhere to spread the risk ? The market is spooked.
[101] - Well, I often have cause to send parcels. Also, the nearest free cash machine is a brisk 20 minute walk from where I live, which is in a city. I can understand that the pensioners who live around here would want to collect their pension from a local post office.
In rural areas the government should be doing everything it can to make it easy for people to use cars as little as possible., not least because of those people who don’t have one. Closing down rural post offices isn’t going to help.
Obama’s speech has been posted dozens of times on youtube and is getting millions of hits overall.
Will Smithson’s law of coverage apply over this?
The second most popular political video is an attack over Hilary’s record on Iraq.
164. i havent been able to watch it yet, sounds good though.
£ down 2% against the dollar they day after the fed slashes interest rates - robust Uk economy ?
160. My addition to the unemployment figures may not have registered yet! Hopefully i won’t be out of work long but as someone who has just spent a load of cash plus time on gaining qualifications in the finance sector CEMAP & CEFA will be hacked off if all the jobs go! (Mind i was looking at the CAB initiative to give advise to the debt destressed.) This happened when i trained to be an IT bod in 1999 / 2000. So maybe its my fault the financial services problem! As i am jinxed it would seem!
166. Sorry 0.5%. 2% vs the yen.