Poll: Paddick supporters prefer Boris to Ken
March 19th, 2008
Why’s Boris winning the battle for LD second preferences?
The above extract is from the detailed data on the YouGov website of this week’s London Mayoral poll showing Boris 12% ahead.
What could be even more significant is the way the Brian Paddick second preferences are splitting:- Boris is winning 41% of them to Ken’s 34%.
This is very much at odds with the way many on PBC have been seeing it and the assumption has been that Ken would easily win the Paddick second preferences battle.
Latest betting on the Mayoral election is here.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes, but how many voters does Paddick have. I’d still put my money on him, greater name recognition must boost his chances, even if he’s unlikely to get close.
This is an interesting statistic. But is it signifcant?
For starters, 4% of Paddick supporters would give Paddick their second preference, according to the survey.
I would guess that only about 60% will bother to transfer. If Boris leads by 7% in these, it only amounts to 0.07 x 0.60 x 0.12 of those who vote. That’s about half a percent. Technically that is called bugger all.
This is a modified STV election. So, if Paddick gets 14% of the vote, and then splits 60/40 in Boris’s favour, then that is *really* bad news for Ken. Especially as Ken got the bulk of LD second choices in ‘04.
2: I think the point is that some people think that - even if Ken is 3% behind Boris on first prefs - he’ll make it up on seconds.
This clearly shows this is not the case.
OT - sorry - just got a copy of the Reading Post today. Our very own Rik W, who I am sure still lurks in these parts, is pictured on pages 1, 4, 5 and 7.
No scandal though - he’s just get some publicity for the Tories on traffic.
Good news for Boris, but there’s 6 weeks to go yet.
I wonder if Ken/Labour will get their act together and realise trying to paint Boris as an evil thief/racist is a ridiculous strategy.
Other polls have found that a large part of the Lib Dems vote is an anti-establishment vote. So we should not be surprised to see the vote break 4:3 in favour of Boris.
If Paddick uses up media space attacking Boris he could actually damage his own support base.
The poll for Others at 3% looks far too low.
In terms of changes compared to the 04 election on first prefs they are
Labour -1%
Conservative +21%
Lib Dems -3%
Others -18%
If Others do go from 3% to 13%, where will their votes come from?
Really difficult to see Ken winning from this position.
4 - true. I would expect Paddick to do a little better than 12% in the end, though. Presumably whoever he nicks votes off between now and May will largely benefit by getting them back as second preferences.
I am coming round to the point of view that the transfers will have little effect, but we will have to see how the Greens and the assorted nutters do. I would expect the BNP to poll well, but little to transfer. I expect UKIP to poll very poorly, but transfer mostly to Bozzer (or to the BNP).
7 - “In terms of changes compared to the 04 election on first prefs they are
Labour -1%
Conservative +21%
Lib Dems -3%
Others -18%”
Well others will do better than -18%! The poll is a bit dodgy in not naming other parties which together got 21% last time. Potential BNPers, UKIPper and Greenies do sometimes need reminding their parties exist.
Anyway, the poll makes you realise how poorly Simon Hughes, an established London MP, did last time.
Here is my GUESS of what the others (if 13%) on first prefs will be. Figs in brackets are their 04 first prefs.
UKIP 3% (6%)
BNP 5% (3%)
ED 1% (0%)
GREEN 2% (2.9%)
RESPECT 2% (6%)
11 - ‘fraid to say I think the BNP will do better than that.
12 - much better!
12 SBS what is your guess for BNP?
12 / 13 - In the Mayoral race? I’m not sure.. I think there will be a big squeeze in the Mayoral vote as people go for Boris or Ken and the BNP will be doing well to save its deposit.
11
Don’t forget the Christian Peoples Alliance who got 2.2% in 2004. I assume they’re standing, and London’s a more religious place now than four years ago.
On the London Assembly elections, what is to stop a party running their FPTP candidates under one party name (say “New Labour”), and then their PR candidates under another (”Social Democrats”)?
14 - I reckon they can get 7%, which is quite scary.
Is there are deposit in the mayoral race and is the threshold the same as for GEs?
Maybe the attraction of Boris for some Lib Dems is that they get a by election out of it!
18 - Yes to both.
17 - Didnt Forward Wales come close to this last year? I think the Electoral Commission became interested. Sean Fear has often suggested the tactic for the Tories.
20 - I’m sure Sean wasnt being entirely serious when he suggested it!
SBS Are you correct? Using your numbers Boris would get 41% of theLibDem second preferences: .41 X .6 X.12 = 3%. Added to his 49% of first preferences he would win. Admittedly, he is only half a percent better than Ken on second preferences, but does this matter. Or am I completely misunderstanding how the results are calculated.
I’m certain that Mark Senior, as a typical Lib Dem, would give Boris his second preference if lived in London…
18 SBS
Canditates need to get 330 signatures from people on the electoral register supporting their nomination: 10 from each London borough and from the City of London. You also have to pay a deposit of £10,000, which is returned if you get more than 5% of first choice votes in the election.
19. Would the Lib-Dem’s really be that cynical? I can’t believe it! Never!
3 makes the pertinent point - this looks like very bad news for Ken - does anyone have the LD 2nd pref vote split for 04?
Maybe they are spliting for Boris because Boris is seen as being the closer to the centre than Ken Livingstone. Before any of the usually Lunitic left disagree: Remember Livingstone invites dictators to London and encourages poor countries to donate Oil to the “premier city that is London”. Johnson for all of his alleged rightwingery does not invite or associate himself with international outcasts or psuedo dictators of the third rate (They could not be anything more than third rate as they are communists and socialists).
27. (They could not be anything more than third rate as they are communists and socialists).
- or International Liberal Democrats of the Mark Senior variety!!!!
“Why’s Boris winning the battle for LD second preferences?”
Because no politician who supports ID cards will ever get my vote — 1st, 2nd or nth preference!
29. I think Livingstone also supported letting middle aged men bugger 16 year old boys when the legislation went through the commons.
How’s this for a wild scenario? Ken lose’s in May and by the end of the year has been elected to a safe Labour seat in a by election. Brown lose’s the general election in 2010 and Ken Livingstone stands for Labour leader, which he wins and becomes leader of the Opposition, paving the way for a Labour victory in 2015, where-by Ken Livingstone becomes Prime Minister.
Crrrrrrwwwwaaaazzzzzyyyyyy??????????????
Not sure if it was on the other threads but saw this on pink news
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/articles/2005-7174.html
Ken and the Greens have an election pact - not sure what impact it will have though
27
Surprised that Livingstone hasn’t had the Rev Wright over as a motivational speaker to launch his campaign,he’s had most of the other global nutcases.
Go Boris. The thought of Ken Livingstone being dumped…
Someone else posted that saying that Ken would re-employ Jasper would do for him. I think that’s spot on.
30 - Err, do you mean in the same way that we “let” middle aged men bugger 16 year old girls or are you just being homophobic?
30. They could also have their way with 16 year-old girls. Okay in your book, Martin?
35. Well i would not really approve of buggering either! I could think of better things to do with a female. Should they not have put the legislation up to stop as many bastard’s being born and spunging off the state?
35. & 36. I think if any middle aged man gets caught with a 16 year old they may wekll get lynched to be honest.
30. Oh boy! he’s certainly getting my vote now!
31. Why would he need to be leader before becoming Prime Minister?
Remember in 1982(was it?), Labour fought the GLC election with one leader and then Livingstone staged a coup and became leader of the GLC after the election.
37 - “I could think of better things to do with a female”
A 16 year-old female?
38. Whether they are 16 year old males or females. There is something creepy about it anyway - an abuse of “power” or the exchange of money.
22 - you are right, but my point is that the benefit to Boris over Ken of LD second preferences is only tiny, and far less than the 7% in this poll.
However, I would have thought the Tories got almost zilch LD transfers the last two times.
38 - You mean like Roman Polanski and that guy from the Rolling Stones?
42. Their right to choose Martin. It’s not like you can enforce ages of consent for sex anyway.
41. A 16 year-old female? - I wouldn’t go for anything below about 20 possibly even 22! Cannot be accused of grooming etc then!
17 - didn’t that happen when Italy had a similar system for general elections?
I’m sure the Electoral Commission would try to stop gaming the system though I don’t know what concrete legal power there is there.
42: If a relationship is legal that’s it.
45. True!
38. Not sure what you mean!
42. “Whether they are 16 year old males or females.”
Right…so your original point had nothing to do with being anit-gay equality. Well glad you’ve cleared that up for us.
48. Sure
38 - Anna Cox was 17.
50. Correct, my point was why bring it down when they have shoved it up for Cigs and Driving? Makes you wonder who’s interests are being trooden on!
I would say i am pretty liberal on Sex - If people want men or women that’s their business. But i think it is suspicious how consensuel sex is lowered in age and other things are “shoved up” in age.
If no candidate received 50% on the first preferences and all the voters decided not to choose any other preferences would the election be void.
” I would have thought the Tories got almost zilch LD transfers the last two times.”
Why are Lib Dems no longer anti-tory? I guess it’s ID cards, Iraq War, detention without trial, Trident, etc. Are the Tories now the lesser of two evils?
31: Is replacing one out of touch loser with another a good plan?
51: Would a staged age of consent with nobody over say 30 being able to do the deed with anyone under 18 cover your concerns?
Are these quotes of Ken official Nulabour policy?
He also described Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as “obviously barking mad” and repeated his desire to see the Saudi Royal Family “swinging from the lamppost”.
49 I’d love to see you air some of your postings in fron of a 6 ft 3 inches tall,16 stone gay man and his partner of simlilar build-I’m not advocating violence,I’m just making the point as far as I recall,I have NEVER said anything on here I would not have the nerve to say to someone’s face-just a principle I adhere to
54 - no, you just need to have more than the other candidate does after redistribution of second preferences, you don’t need an absolute majority of the votes cast.
54 - No.
56. Not sure but i think it is a bit dodgy 40 odd year olds with 16 year olds. Mind you i once got talking to this bloke (78) and a really fit bird who i thought was his daughter. Yes you guessed it they were engaged to be married - the bloke was not wealthy either. Could not work it out - unless his teachers pension was the key? That was disgusting and a real waste as i imagine he needed the help of blue tablets to do anything (If she let him!)
58. Thats the whole point of the internet - you are unconstricted by physical intimidation.
61 - Please feel free to stop going on about this particular topic.
63. Ok, i will bugger off - no pun intended!
47 - When Forward Wales looked like they might be trying something similar on (though in truth they never had a chance of a constituency win anyway):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6352309.stm
55.
“Why are Lib Dems no longer anti-tory? I guess it’s ID cards…..”
Tory policy, opposed by Cameron’s crew for opposition’s sake
“Iraq War,…….”
Tory policy supported by Cameron.
“detention without trial……..”
Tory policy.
“Trident,………..”
Tory policy supported by Cameron.
Maybe Lib Dem voters prefer real nasty pretend-Blair Tories to pretend Tory Brownites?
64 No need to take umbrage,I was not deliberately dissing you!
(BTW,to disprove the myth left-leaners have a sense of humour,I suppose you heard about the two Irish gays-Patrick FitzGerald and Gerald FitzPatrick..)
Looking at the quality of the buggering posts I’d say the age of consent should be 104 !!
Jack is 105 and couldn’t be buggered to bother !!
And then there was the dyslexic alcoholic: he choked on his own Vimto
Are the names of the Labour rebels on the Post Office vote out yet?
70 - if Martin Salter is not one, he’s a bloody hypocrite!
68- I thought it was the done thing for the British aristocracy to bugger small boys. These political correct lefties- out to ruin perfectly harmless hobbies.
Don’t be surprised by the number of 2nd preference LD votes that Boris is picking up. In 2004 Steve Norris picked up a very high proportion of Simon Hughes 2nd preferences.
2004 Hughes 2nd Preferences for Livingstone: 81,427
2004 Hughes 2nd Preferences for Norris: 62,381
The remaining 140,000 or so Hughes voters either did not cast a 2nd preference vote or wasted their 2nd preferences by voting for a minor party.
This means that last time the ‘effective’ LD transfers broke 57%/43% for Labour - only just favouring Ken. It would not take much of a swing for the Tories to take more LD second preferences than Labour - and in 2008 they have a more populist candidate standing against a scandal prone Labour incumbent.
What’s more - LD trasfers are important. They amounted to 10% of Livingstone’s final tally last timne and put clear water between him and Norris. The only other significant transfers last time which counted were UKIP transfers to Norris (35,289)and Green trasfers to Livingstone (19,023).
O/T Let’s pray that queues don’t form outside Halifax branches tomorrow - were they to do so, God knows where this mess will end. Halifax is of a totally different dimension to Northern Rock.
On a more cheerful but equally O/T theme, in Saturday’s relegation struggle between Newcastle vs Fulham, I take the home side to win this encounter comfortably. Corals’ Half Time Newcastle, Full Time Newcastle at 2.2-1 appears to offer value. For those of a nervous disposition, Betfair has Half Time Newcastle, Full Time Draw available at 18-1, by way of a saver.
Martin Salter is an authoritarian cretin.
74. I posted this on the last thread, someone has been putting out malicious rumours about HBOS to decrease the share price according to the FSA.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/19/marketturmoil.creditcrunch?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
I’ve just been watching the highlights of PMQ’s on Sky. I thought Cameron was excellent, and the line on “The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organisations” book was perfect.
Lib Dems generally hate corruption far more than they hate right-wing idiocy. It is not surprising that they are turning away from Ken.
Drudge is reporting that a new Bin Laden message is expected.
Apparently he was supporting McCain but now Obama has the ‘God Damn America’ pastor on board he’s switched to the Democrats ….. or so Fox news will report.
78. These poll results just show that Lib Dem voters are a more mixed bunch than the mostly very left wing activists represented on this site. And that they swinging toward the Tories compared with four years ago.
Mark Senior..if you are out there. I left this for you on UK Polling refering to Ian Dale’s disclosure of a leaked LibDem election strategy document.
‘Along time ago I suggested that people were put off by the prospect a of a hung Parliament and that talk of it was disadvantageous to the Lib Dems.
You asked me ‘to put up or shut up’ [nicely]’
My only response I had was to suggest that I understood the LibDems themselves thought it and did their best to avoid the topic. Charles Kennedy had, I believe, said that the more it is talked about the less likely it is to happen.
It seems I was right - to the extent that your own party believe it is lethal to them.
This could be a real problem for you - unless the Tories are miles ahead of course :-0
80 - “Lib Dem voters are a more mixed bunch than the mostly very left wing activists represented on this site”
I think that is a rather absurd generalisation. The very idea that ukpaul, me or our genial host are easily labelled as left wing I find rather hard to swallow.
And I have long since ceased to be an activist!
Quick PMQ update from Ladbrokes - we saw a reasonable amount of interest in our market on DCs first question. We’ll definitely be doing it again next week. I should think we’ll have some prices up on Monday morning.
We saw some money for ten of the options we listed. Economy/Banking/Stock Market was 4/1 on Monday morning and by Wednesday morning we were laying it at 4/5. Tibet was originally a 7/2 shot, went off at 6/1. We didn’t see a penny for it.
83 “We didn’t see a penny for it.”
Sounds like you earned your corn this week then Shadsy!
From today’s times which I found interesting after Sean Fears Friday topic on the voting allegiance of the working class
Which political party,if any,do you feel best represents the rights of the …..
Working classes…Lab 39 Con 10 Lib Dem 8 Other 5 None 21
Middle classes….. Lab 19 Con 46 Lib Dem 7 Other 2 None 7
Upper classes……Lab 7 Con 65 Lib Dem 2 Other 1 None 6
Data from MORI
Shadsy - when do you think Ladbrokes might start offering overall majorities in terms of seat bands, like Corals, who at the moment have this market to themselves - it would be good to see some competition either from your lot or Betfair.
Hills seem to have given up of late on innovative political bets.
86 - “Hills seem to have given up of late on innovative political bets.”
I think the work experience lad they used to have doing it has gone back to school
82- I tell you one thing on a scale of -100 (noble hard lefties) to + 100 (right wing baffoons) the pendulum of this site is about +40. Generally the lefties here are NuLabers- redfump, jonothan, snowflake- put them all about +10 (i.e not left at all), a couple of LDemers are much more radical- ColinW, Mark Senior, about -30, obviously the outliers- myself and Roger in the -40 plus, a couple of lefty radicals sometimes emerge but they do not hang around much
but my god how many foaming right wingers are there here, libertarian LD’s, and people who just despise Labour. In one sense why I quite enjoy it on pbCOM.
I haven’t posted for a while.
I was thinking about Sian Berry’s outburst today. Like others, I think its a big error of judgement and I’m not surprised that the pact has been controversial in the London Green Party. Why hitch your wagon to a loser?
Greens are usually seen as earnest, well meaning and sincere.The language used is just plain nasty - right out of the New Labour campaigning playbook - Smear the person, then trash the policy.
It seems that everyone who gets too close to Ken Livingstone becomes unpleasantly paranoid and obnoxious.
Above all, it shows that the Left in London are in meltdown. Meanwhile, Boris continues to impress as a serious policy figure who refuses to engage in mean spirited abuse.
89: First time you’ve ever posted something I agree with. IMO the Green position shows the extent to which leftist entryism has come to dominate the Green Party. They are now an avowedly socialist party, better suited to the likes of Socialist Worker and Respect than to mainstream politics.
88. What camp would you place me in Tyson?
I was surprised to note today, even after a good deal of recent publicity, that the total amount matched on Betfair as regards the London Mayoralty Election is only circa £95K, far less than even the most insignificant of horse races at some God-forsaken track.
58 I’d love to see you air some of your postings in fron of a 6 ft 3 inches tall,16 stone gay man and his partner of simlilar build-I’m not advocating violence,I’m just making the point as far as I recall,I have NEVER said anything on here I would not have the nerve to say to someone’s face-just a principle I adhere to
It sounds like you are advocating censorship by violence.
One other reason to oppose lefties and their PC fascism.
89
Yes,but 99% of the London electorate don’t have a clue who she is.
The “Martin Day” caricature was ranting about buggering 16 year old boys yesterday too. Methinks the lady doth protest too much…
89. Stewart Jackson continues to impress on PB !!
Boris and “serious policy figure” in one sentence.
95 MBoy. Well quite, Martin does seem to enjoy his daily dose of buggery …. and if he carries on he may indeed get a dose !!
91 G. From what we’ve seen, not too camp !!
A few days ago, IIRC, Mike suggested having a small bet on Paddick, by way of a saver, were second pref votes to go strongly against Boris - although he is now suggesting in this thread that this appears unliely to prove the case.
Is it remotely possible for Paddick to win even at the very long odds of 50-1? Would someone please post a voting scenario between the three main candidates that just might give him an outside chance.
86. I’ll give that some consideration Peter and see what we can come up with next week.
94. A few people know her. She’s our worst result. Mind you, our worst result in in the Gold Cup would have been Contraband (500/1) and our worst result in the US General Election would be Ron Paul, who we are still laying regularly - took a few hundred more on him today. Amazing stuff.
98 - “Would someone please post a voting scenario between the three main candidates that just might give him an outside chance.”
Ken dies and is replaced on the ticket by Helen Clark?
90 IMO the Green position shows the extent to which leftist entryism has come to dominate the Green Party. They are now an avowedly socialist party…
I had always thought of myself as green. I regularly plant trees, walk, cycle & train where possible. I dont take the bus because of the high possibility of violence…plus they stink of diesel fumes and are constantly stopping and starting andstopping and starting and ANYWAY…where was I?
Oh yes…I dont buy any supermarket or takeaways in excessive or expanded foam packaging…I support hunting as a pestercide free way of controlling (without necessarily killing) farm pest…I support leather and fur over non biodegradable plastic clothing…I think windmills in the countryside are beautifully green…
…and the most beautifully green industry is milk delivered in recycled glass bottles, to you door by a green hero, the milky man in his electric milk van.
I went to a meeting and just heard so called greens banging on about socialism and feminism. What was all that about?!??
96. Which is more than he does in Peterborough!
88. Well seeing as the absolute +100s would be Hitler supporters, and the bulk of right-wingers on this site would support a centrist (0) over him, most of them must be under +50, right?
101: The modern Green Party.
102 Reflecting.
Well, I’ll be buggered…. Stewart Jackson !!
102. How bitchy.
OT
According to Boulton and Co. the Chinese are not too happy about Gordo agreeing to meet the Dalai Lama. Gordo might have though he had scored a goal, but its business as usual, conceding two own goals in defence.
What advice was the Foreign Office giving one asks…….
Spinning that the meeting wouldnt be in No 10 or any Govt office just makes Gordo (and Britain) look pathetic. Either he is meeting the Dalai Lama or he isnt… Which is it?
97- not in our Andrea’s league. Poor Andrea must be gutted not to be invited to Dinky’s civil partnership.
G- you know what- I would say you are about 0- in the middle. I always find myself thinking what you say seems quite sensible.
Now Jack W old boy- I think you buck the trend of the right wards trajectory with age. At 105 you are as left as you have ever been. By 200 you will be trying to create the pbCOM revolutionary commune.
106 woody. Well, Stewart buggered Labour in Peterborough at the last election !!
107 oops omitted link
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/
108. So where do I figure on this scale?
94 Berry has been getting a lot more publicy than she or the Greens deserve - it’s because she’s young, fit, photogenic and had something of Barbara Good about her.
But her hate-filled rant today presents editors with a dilema. Up to now, they’ve enjoyed presenting it as a four horse race so they can show her picture. But they can’t do that any more without tackling her on her on her non-green policies. And if they give her time to expand on her socialism, then the other dozen candidates also need to be given equal billing. She’s cooked her goose.
Reaction from the BBC… PMQs today and Cameron’s well done.
But for all his hard work and the dozens of unhappy looking sticky notes plastered across the surface of his briefing papers Gordon Brown has still not worked out what to do when the Conservative leader is pleasant to him.
Last month the prime minister appeared taken aback when Mr Cameron wished him a happy birthday, as though this was the one eventuality he had not prepared for.
This time he seemed just as unnerved when the Conservative leader congratulated him on the decision to meet the Dalai Lama.
David Cameron didn’t even ask a question. He simply praised the Prime Minister’s announcement and sat down.
The effect was as though he had just pelted Gordon Brown with wet fish.
98 - Pretty much any scenario where Paddick beats Ken on 1st prefs to get into the final 2 should in theory see him home. As an example, Boris 35%, Ken 24%, Paddick 26% then only requires Paddick to get 10% more of Kens 2nd prefs than Boris does (assuming all ‘Others’ have negligable effect) What this requires is for Paddick to effectively be positioned as a “stop boris” candidate - unlikely - Yes, Impossible - No
What is all this discussion about buggery?
Surely if it is between consenting adults, legal and there is no cohersion involved, nobody else has an opinion.
Having said that, I think the age of consent should be raised to 18. Anything between those of similar ages could be ignored - whilst the full weight of the law could be brought down on any 40yr old (*) dalying with a 16yr old.
(*) 40yr women would also be treated leniently
115. That’s actually a very reasonable position.
101- bolted horse- you see I consider myself a Green on the other side of the spectrum. I think animal rights should be harmonised with human rights. Rabbits particularly should be given high status because they are so fluffy and cute. All cars should be banned naturally, and capitalism be abolished in favour of state control and ownership of everything.
And we should all be equal, all made to wear the same clothes (preferably black pajamas), and all forced to live in biogradable tents, and only allowed to eat rice, and potatoes on special occasions, and only be allowed to procreate 1 human per 10,000. A state lottery should decree who produces the next child. Paradise on earth!!
A right - back to buggery again are we?
115 - “Anything between those of similar ages could be ignored” - Surely, made Legal??
115- forgive my ignorance but are women capable of buggery?
96. Only for Martin Day, darling.
Even speaking as a former Whip, I really don’t understand those Labour MPs who voted against our motion to suspend the Post Office closures plan tonight. Many were clearly very unhappy with the process and disagree with it.
It would not have had any impact on Labour’s legislative programme and would have shown their constituenmts - especially those with small majorities - that they would back up the promises on their websites and in their local papers - with a principled vote in the House of Commons.
As it is, they will now be hounded for their supine spinelessness -and for what?
104 As the Green party were a bunch of boiler suited nutbars, it was another reason I found myself directed to the Conservative party.
Labour, on the other hand, seems intent on packing Britain with immigrants, making England the most populated country in Europe.
Overpopulation is an anathma to a true green. Overpopulation means pressure on nature, intensive farming, insecticides, concreting over green spaces and wildlife to provide housing, jobs and roads so that ever more cars can belch out fumes on congested roads.
119 Tyson. You need to be a complete pr*ck to engage in it.
Good Nite
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
109 of course Stewart does have the advantage of not being a fictitious character, made up by his author to profess views that are not her own, as the creator of Jack W has told us. What i wondered about was mike saying he’d guessed the ID and had Jack’s creator confirm it, only for that poster to come here and say “I’m not Monckton, I want to spare Mike embarassment.” eh? Didn’t Mike say Jack’s writer confirmed the guess?
whilst the eurobore anti-Tory character is interesting, I’d like to ask the writer to stop being rude to one of our resident MPs.
By the way, monckton’s “challenge” to Gore was wretchedly embarassing.
122 - “As the Green party were a bunch of boiler suited nutbars, it was another reason I found myself directed to the Conservative party.”
I think you made the right choice for all concerned there.
118 “Anything between those of similar ages could be ignored” - Surely, made Legal??
The trouble is to define a dividing line. Illegal one day, legal the next(?). Far better to have a simple law that can be applied with discretion on a case by case basis.
There is a certain smugness IMHO in how anyone on here seriously left of center is ‘consumed with hate’ ,’venom’ etc etc-as if the right/cenrte right alone have the right to exist.
Economiclly,I am moderately centre-left.Law and order-a mix of authoritarianism with very liberal views on the family and homosexuality.
The way the right screamed about the fox hunting ban is an example.I live in a leafy-sih suburb of north Bournemouth-foxes frequently viait my back garden.I am NOT against country sports across the board-shooting with full bore rifles is acceptable -but I am elated foxes cannot legally be chased by hounds anymore-not a class issue as my mothers family are middle-class
‘Pretty much any scenario where Paddick beats Ken on 1st prefs to get into the final 2 should in theory see him home’
Oh please, no more of this ludicrous fantasising. It’s a two horse race and Paddick is going to come in a poor third.
119 forgive my ignorance but are women capable of buggery?
again, I ask, what is all this discussion about buggery (in aid of)?
127. Foxes are still chased by hounds regularly, so your ‘elation’ is absurdly misplaced. I suppose you think mixed sexed wards have been abolished too.
RIP Ama Sumani - I hope Jacqui Smith manages to sleep soundly tonight.
Anyone know where the full list of the MPs voting in the Post Office debate can be found?
119 that reminds me of a woman at our place who did not know how that was possible I told her it was called a “strapodichtomy”
124- and test/ commentator- who are you to throw stones at our anonymous posters? What do you do for a living? Is yours a name we might know here?
badly done old boy!
126 - Mr horse, you obviously understand the absurdity of legal one day and illegal the next - (although this would obvioulsy apply also to you’re 18yo legal limit…) - I think issues such as this are improtant as they relate directly to non-abstract laws and the legal lines that go with them - I find the unthinking distinctions between moral and legal that so many people have disheartening but you are obviously thinking about them so that I respect.
133 - I have heard of a process called Enforced Feminisation….
This is the Division on the Conservative amendment - I counted 15 Labour MPs supporting it
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmtoday/cmdebate/18.htm#hddr_2
124. test/commentator/? - You just can’t stay away, can you? How many more times are you going to flounce off saying you will never come back, only to return and bore us all again with your tiresome mix of sanctimony and priggishness?
127
Anyone who thinks banning fox hunting improved the lot of foxes can only be described as deluded.
Banning it may have helped the consciences of a number of MPs but for hunting read gassing.
But tally ho is dead so all’s well with the world.
130 Re mixed sex wards,having been inpatient at a large psychaitric hospital in 1998,whilst obviously dormitories should be single sex,the nurding staff regard male and female patients,at least in the context of a psychatric hospital,has a civilising impact-an all male ward could take on too beligerent tone.
With all due respect,niggling about single sex wards makes your side sound small-minded and petty.
How long your lawbraking cintinues remain to be seen-if legislation that makes the Gestapo sound liberal by comparison is aimed at your ilk,I would p1ss myself laughing
OT - Obama’s Philadelphia speech is now apparently the most-watched video on YouTube - 1.5m million hits. Pretty incredible for a serious, even intellectual speech on race by a politician.
140. Ah we are back to the usual drunken abuse pretty quickly. Actually I have nothing to do with the Cattistock hunt at all but I suspected posting under that name would reveal your true attitudes haha.
141 - Do you mean most-watched video on YouTube in a day?
This one has got 21 millions views-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_CSo1gOd48
I kinda like it/
re 30/37 well I’ve had my doubts about Martin Day since he appeared on here a while ago. None now - a cast iron certifiable loon. With respect to the official loonies we have on here.
140. In English please..or even better..just not at all…
The ban on fox hunting was entirely a Guardianista ‘class warrior’ crusade by Labour…it was the one concession Blair really made to the sad old left of the party…
Trouble is that the country has moved on since then but left Labour behind..The truly hideous Blears, the rancid old Newt and some irrelevant hippy dont seem to have realised this though..
I think it happened to Major’s government…the country leaves you beheind..and nothing you can do or say is going to change that…
130 Fox hunting is an excellent green invention, aside the fact that no chemicals are used, such as poisonous gas. Apparently very few hunts result in a kill - which means the fox is chased off the land and left to live in another area.
I used to be against bull fighting - then I spent some time on a European farm. 1 day baby male cows were seperated from their mothers and tied to trees, in preparation for what…veal?
I discovered bull fighting bulls live freely in the hills & on the plains and they die fighting. I am pretty much on the bull’s side and cheer when they gore the poncy bully.
Aside from the pre-fight stabbing…the blunted horns…the not half grown bulls used for sport…ask yourself, what would you prefer? A baby bull’s fate on a European farm followed by inprisonment and the abatoir - or living free on the plains, eating, siring and some kind of fighting chance?
Here is a link to a hero bull fighting back against the sadists - sorry i couldnt find a matador get his just deserts… You too will believe a 1000lb bull can fly!
re 107 Gordon is probably cowering behind the sofa having done something courageous for once.
145 - “it was the one concession Blair really made to the sad old left of the party”
This certainly rings true - I hope those old labour supporters are proud of themselves - they got thatcherite polices with a ban on fox-hunting - well done.
148. They didn’t even get that. Fox hunting is alive and well with more participants than ever. Labour’s cack-handed attempt at persecuting the sport has actually given it a major shot in the arm.
Tally Ho!
149 - makes it all the more poetic - tally ho indeed.
148. Personally, i think low unemployment, civil partnerships, sure start, scottish devolution, child poverty commitments, extra funds for adult skills and so on were more important to the left. I couldn’t give a damn either way about fox hunting.
144.142
Points:
(a)I am not drunk:I have consumed 2 bottles of Bishops Finger totalling 1 litre : at 5.4% ABV I would be certainly over the limit to drive a car
(b)The usual right-wing dissing of ‘attitude’ comes forth-if anyone likes the thought of a fox having its throat torn out by a hound,try substituting that for a woman or infant child in your family-and see how you feel then
(c)I could,but will not as it is laughable take offence at the term ‘certifiable’-I have been sectioned once under the 1983 Mental Health Act for an act of self-harm- after a week the section was dropped,but I stayed on as in-patient voluntarily for 2 weeks
(d)Believe it or not,I do NOT particularly enjoy ‘The Guardian’-usually ‘The Independent’ is my favourite read
re 111 and others - I’ve always thought it would be helpful if we did the political compass http://www.politicalcompass.org
Just so we could look people up from time to time. For the record I’m
-0.38 left/right i.e. ever so slightly left wing and
-3.18 social libertarian/authoritarian i.e/ libertarian
re 119 absolutely - there are various device with can be purchased.
151-
low unemployment - yes because some parties want high unemployment don’t they?
civil partnerships - err, well done. It’s not equality or a major policy but still..
scottish devolution - which left the awful democratic deficit of the west loatian question hanging in the balance…
child poverty commitments - like taking away the 10% tax bracket?? The working family tax credit is a mess…
As for surestart and extra funds for adult skills…fine whatever…believe what you want - we’re living in a predominately thatcherite policy world.
I’ve just been catching up on the 40yr/16yr old buggery question.
It seems everyone is against it, but some (pc, leftie, gay) believe that it is acceptable in the name of equality.
Isnt the answer to raise the buggery age of consent to say 21 (for males and females).
All of our ideals of Equality, Decency and Protective Instincts could be addressed in one go.
152. Keep on supping old chap, it makes for great entertainment. Almost as much fun as cockfighting and bear baiting. Hope Cameron brings them back sharpish when he gets in.
20/21 Quite serious. Recreate the old Municipal Reform Party, and just have it contesting the list seats.
I would also tackle the sex industry - raise the legal age of sex workers to 21.
I’ve nothing against p0rn - but I do think the minimum age should be 21. A couple of years ago an 18yr old girl got aids after working 3 months. Apparently, aside from catching aids, the ’situations’ she was involved in were tantamount to assault. I dont think an 18yr old girl is old enough to chose to put herself in that situation. If indeed it was choice.
And one other thing, note I didnt call her a p0rn star. The women have a 2 year career and are chewed out like meat through the grinder. P0rn thrives on fresh meat. Raising the legal age would be one way to address it.
155. Blair and Brown did not do enough to challenge Thatcher’s legacy. But to claim that the only left wing thing that they did was to ban foxhunting is a very selective reading of the record.
156 - Glad to see someone is still intrested in buggery - I personnally try to maximise my buggery at all times so would like the age of consent lowered for both sexes to 16 - it would also have the added advantage of being equalitist.
157 Out of idle curosity,as a resident of Bournemouth East constituency,do you refer to Cattistock c.6 miles north-west of Dorchester,west Dorset?
159 - well this seems far more reasonable - hard to disagree with apart from some unforseen consequenses/enforcment issues.
Are AMNBH, Martin Day and Al Fresco the same person?
They’ve been agreeing with each other about buggery two days in a row.
158 But if that fell foul of the electoral commission,we should just advise Tories to give their list vote to UKIP (and aim to get them to stand down in the constituencies). That way, we could carve up the Assembly together.
re 156 I wouldn’t be in favour of it, but I’m dead against all those who think that’s its distasteful if gay but OK if straight.
160 - “But to claim that the only left wing thing that they did was to ban foxhunting is a very selective reading of the record.”
It is selective…I admit…but the the fact of the matter is that we’re living in thatchite policy - people forget the Major was a one-nation conservative and probably would have implemented a lot of these supposedly left-wing policies…
Aren’t UKIP going to be completely eclipsed by the BNP though? I doubt they will even get 2% of the vote.
All this talk of buggery brings back memories of another hero of ‘The People’s Party’ step forward left wing warrior, Mr Mark Trotter.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_19980108/ai_n9650207
95. No! i got the idea of doing a “bugger troll” from someone yesterday as it made me laugh!
I like to dip my toe in sometimes and make a serious contribution but mainly i like to troll! Problem is i haven’t quite got the hang of trolling yet nor for that matter buggery! I will not ask for any tips in the same paragraph as mentioning buggery as someone might literally give me one!
168. I suppose it depends on the UKIP’s position on buggery?
170 - if you’re such a troll Martin why can’t you just admit to being against gay equality? Here is a troll tip for you - trolls mostly don’t cave in their absurd troll opinions…
152 “if anyone likes the thought of a fox having its throat torn out by a hound,try substituting that for…”
…a leftie who wants to control you…or a leftie who brainwashes your children at school…or who makes opinions illegal….or who kills a relative in Katyn, Siberia, Ukraine , Zimbabwe or Cambodia…or a North Korean leftie who stops you providing for your children so all you can give them to eat is clay and bark and you must watch them cry in unlit, unheated huts …
Fox hunting is an excellent Green Invention. Almost a good as using wasps as living pesticide.
157,Glad to meet someone who is
(a)Disdainful (b)Mocking (c)Up himself ..and probably hides behind his PC because he knows full well what would happen in real life if he spoke to someone like that.Off to You Tube for pop music-I’ve had enough of right wing cock-suckers for one night
172. Ah-ha, maybe thats the problem! Gay equality is not really something that interests me as i don’t have a vested interest in it! So as far as i am concerned gay people can nobble who they want as long as it is legal. End of!
175 - But it Does interest you - hense-
“I think Livingstone also supported letting middle aged men bugger 16 year old boys when the legislation went through the commons.”
As I said - if you’re going to be a troll at least stick to your troll-like opinions.
Labour post office rebels
Diane Abbott (Hackney North & Stoke Newington)
Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North)
John Cummings (Easington)
Andrew Dismore (Hendon)
David Drew (Stroud)
Frank Field (Birkenhead)
Paul Flynn (Newport West)
John Grogan (Selby)
Kate Hoey (Vauxhall)
Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North)
John McDonnell (Hayes & Harlington)
Eric Martlew (Carlisle)
Alan Meale (Mansfield)
Gordon Prentice (Pendle)
Alan Simpson (Nottingham South)
Geraldine Smith (Morecambe & Lunesdale)
Sir Peter Soulsby (Leicester South)
David Taylor (Leicestershire North West)
Mike Wood (Batley & Spen)
So there’s a problem