Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
March 21st, 2008
A preview of 2008’s Local Elections (Part I)
Most of the interest on May 1st will focus on the London Mayoralty. Elsewhere, however, there are important local elections taking place. All 36 Metropolitan Boroughs will see one third of their councillors elected. The 22 Welsh Unitary authorities will see all of their councillors come up for election. 4 District councils will have all-out elections, 5 will elect half their councillors, and 71 will elect one third. There are also elections for 4 new “shadow” unitary authorities, in Cheshire, Durham, and Northumberland. These authorities will not come into existence until 2009, when the existing County and District councils will be abolished.
In this piece, I shall examine the Metropolitan Boroughs, and then comment on the remaining authorities in future weeks.
Almost all the seats being contested in May were last contested in 2004. In that year, according to Plymouth University’s figures, Labour won 33% of the vote in these authorities, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats 26% each, and minor parties and independents, the remaining 15%. These vote shares have remained remarkably constant in 2006, and 2007, and until very recently, I would have expected them to remain roughly the same this year. However, Labour’s recent very sharp slide in the polls, and current economic uncertainty, suggest to me that Labour will slip back, and will suffer a small net loss of seats this year. Looking at the Boroughs in turn:-
Doncaster (with a Labour Mayor, although Labour have fewer than half the seats) , Gateshead, Knowsley, Manchester, Rotherham, Salford, Sandwell, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Tameside, Wigan, Wakefield, and Wolverhampton will remain safe for Labour. The Conservatives will be looking to gain ground in Salford, Sunderland, and Wakefield, the Liberal Democrats, in Gateshead, and Knowsley.
Trafford, Dudley, and Walsall will remain in Conservative hands, and Rochdale, Stockport, and Newcastle upon Tyne, will remain in the hands of the Liberal Democrats. Despite Labour’s strong performance in Liverpool, in 2007, when they finished just 2% behind the Liberal Democrats, across the City, the Liberal Democrats should retain control this year, but could well be vulnerable in 2010.
Birmingham will remain under no overall control, but in all likelihood, the ruling Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition will gain a few seats from Labour. Labour would have had an outside chance of taking Bolton from no overall control, but in the current climate, the best they can realistically hope for is to consolidate their current position as largest party. Bradford will remain under no overall control, with Labour likely to remain as the largest party; likewise Leeds. In both cities, anti-Labour coalitions are in power. No party will gain overall control of Calderdale, although the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to overtake the Conservatives as the largest single party. The Conservatives held outright control from 2000 to 2004, but have been slipping back since. In Solihull, currently under no overall control, the Conservatives will probably remain the largest party, but lose further ground to the Liberal Democrats. Wirral, Kirklees, and Sefton, will stay under no overall control, as they have done for many years. St. Helen’s will continue under no overall control, but the Liberal Democrats will probably become the largest single party.
It is very hard to see the Conservatives retaining overall control of Coventry. Currently, they have a majority of two, and two of the seats they are defending were won comfortably by Labour last year. Labour might have hoped to gain overall control here, but in current circumstances, that seems unlikely. By way of consolation, the Conservatives can expect to win a majority on North Tyneside, although, with a Labour Mayor, Labour will retain control. I would also expect now to see the Conservatives to win overall control of Bury, where currently, they are the largest single party. Oldham, controlled by Labour on the Mayor’s casting vote, will probably be lost to the Liberal Democrats. Sheffield will probably see the Liberal Democrats move to largest single party status and pick up the last Conservative seat in the City. And last, but not least, Barnsley could well be lost by Labour to no overall control, being a borough where independents are now challenging Labour hard.
Last night saw three by-elections:-
London Borough of Havering, Gooshays: BNP 865, Labour 741, Con 489, UKIP 70, National Liberal 62, Lib Dem 52. BNP hold. This ward is typical of the London overspill estates that were once solidly Labour, but have now shifted markedly rightwards. This is the second time in recent months that the BNP have retained an Essex seat in a by-election, this time with an increased vote share. The Conservatives performed poorly, given that they hold the other two seats in the ward.
London Borough of Lambeth,Vassall. Lib. Dem. 1209, Labour 856, Conservative 206, Green 109, English Democrat 8, Independent 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, on a 12% swing. The Liberal Democrats performed badly in Lambeth in 2006,and so will be delighted by their performance in this ward. Quite possibly, the Lambeth/Southwark GLA constituency will now be vulnerable to them in May.
Arun District, Yapton. Conservative 620, Labour 212, BNP 205. An easy Conservative hold, but again, a surprisingly high vote for the BNP.
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What should we look for in target seats at Westminster for these Councils then
Yapton result was LibDems in 2nd place , there was no Labour candidate in the byelection .
Sorry - this is from the other thread - and I did not want ChrisD to miss it, if only to wind him up
Sorry Chris. You are acting as an apologist. Cameron did not ride responsibly when he went the wrong way up a one way street (shortcut, nothing to do with blackspots) or jumped a red light (took advantage of a bike’s nimbleness to save time - not blackspots), or cut the corner - again nothing to do with safety.
Throw the book at the prat is what I say. He is always playing the holier than thou card, and yet he can’t even be bothered to obey the rules of the road. Don’t be a political apologist Chris.
3 - Paul, Chris is a lady. Are you a gentleman?
Thanks for the interesting overview, sean. What’s your view of the position in Derby? My guess is that the national picture will show no clear shifts, so all the media focus will be on London (it tends to be anyway, as London-based journalists are lazy!). I see the Assembly count won’t be till May 2 - will the Mayoral count be on the night?
dave (s) was mistaken on the last thread to say that Rasmussen’s tracker showed Obama had recovered from the Wright issue - in fact, like Gallup, the tracker shows Obama falling back sharply. However, Gallup acutally shows Clinton ahead, while Rasmussen still shown Obama ahead by 3 (down from 8). We should get more clarity about the impact of Obama’s speech in the enxt few days.
A proposal that Dean should intervene:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120605697827253319.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
And, even more O/T, Finkelstein speaking up for MPs here, and getting lynched by his readers:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article3578529.ece
After the appalling “by any means necessary” Labour campaign in Lambeth in 2006, any resumption of vaguely normal and humane politics was always going see a substantial swing from Labour back to LD.
6 What went on
John. Only on the road old chum - where I try to be polite and curteous at all times, whether in a car, on a bike or on foot.
In a political argument I really couldn’t give a monkey’s - Chris is in the wrong because her glorious leader was caught being a prat - I think that if she were a real lady she would back down and admit that his behaviour is in need of censure - not least because he is always telling us what a nice family man he is - wouldn’t be that nice a family man if someone’s son or daughter had got seriously hurt or died due to his careless driving would he?
Several smear campaigns, one deeply homophobic (although not as bad as the sordid Miranda Grell story in Walthamstowe). There were also some dodgy “independent” campaign groups set up before the elections to attack the LD council, which turned out to be Labour fronts.
Squabbling over who should be winning what by the main parties is giving the BNP a relatively free ride. If this isn’t a warning about what will happen in May I don’t know what is.
O/T (sorry, but I just spent some time researching it!)
I noted the number of headlines attacking Obama’s race speech on RCP and, as is my wont when I don’t know the authors, did a check on who they are. Why? Well, you can see when changes are happening because of who says things, the usual suspects are worthless as a barometer.
Apart from one article which was attacking Obama from the left, all of those with headlines such as “The Speech: A Brilliant Fraud ” or “Obama’s Explanation Won’t Fly in Long Run” were by writers described as conservative, neoconservative, evangelical or, quite often, a mix of those three.
Why is this important? Firstly, the attack from republican heartlands is to be expected and blunts their relevance. That the speech gained positive comments from other, similar, some writers dilutes this even further. Once you go beyond confirmed GOP-ers to people like Andrew Sullivan on the right then the split is even greater. There is, however, a danger for Obama in that the weight of the right wing media machine could peel off conservative support from those who are ambivalent towards the GOP and that’s an area to watch for. The linking of Bush with McCain is the area that Obama needs to focus on for these people and it will be interesting to see how much prominence he gives to that during the main campaign.
Secondly, these writers are firing the first sallies of the General Election campaign, they have all but given up attacking Clinton. They appear to believe that the writing is on the wall for her. If Limbaugh starts to tell his listeners to support Obama because he is the one they want to face then you will know that the Dem contest is well over. Independents may find their attacks credible and exposure of who is making the attacks and why is important in keeping independents onside. Here, Obama needs a good rapid response team to stop the spread of untruths which channels like Fox are past masters at.
Finally, and most importantly from a betting perspective, check the sources. If you read a pro-Blair Rentoul article or an anti-Cameron Heffer one then you know it’s pretty worthless as a predictor of anything. Don’t switch your betting strategies on the US election when all you are seeing is battle lines being drawn. The key is how the key electoral areas are shifting, the often flaky US polls are sometimes more confusing than illuminating though and the changing views of Obamacons, independents, McCain liberals and so on are difficult to ferret out.
Sorry to disagree with a learned Labour MP Nick, but if you look at the daily figures since the incident, they have seem to have recovered since the speech.
5 - And a week before that Clinton was 6 points ahead of Obama. Overall, Ferraro and Wright have shown a clear advantage for Obama.
Anyone, of course, can play with dates and figures to suit.
Hi Sean,
I’m not so sure I agree that the BNP vote in Arun was a surprise.
Although I don’t know Yapton so am extending the theory a little in ignorance whether it’s in a ‘poorer’ part of Havering and attracting left leaning voters or a ‘wealthier’ part of a leafier place and attracting rightward leaning voters it underlines my contention that voters are getting increasingly dismissive of all three major parties (you’re all the same, promise the world etc etc…)
I have a horrible feeling that they are going to get 2 seats on the GLA in a few weeks time.
6 The Lib Dem showing in seats like Sheffield Central will be the most interesting bit
There were also some dodgy “independent” campaign groups set up before the elections to attack the LD council, which turned out to be Labour fronts.
Like the Pro-euro Conservative party, you mean? Which was a Labour-Lib Dem front?
Campaign manager for Pro-Euro Tories had previously been a Liberal Democrat. He is now a Liberal Democrat.
“At Downing Street/ Upon the stair/ I met a man who wasn’t Blair/ He wasn’t Blair again today/ Oh how I wish he’d go away
isn’t it hilarious?
5 - Checking these sources gets addictive!
Nick, the WSJ article you refer to is by Douglas E Schoen, strategist for Bill Clinton and part of Penn, Schoen & Berland (as in Mark Penn who is running the Clinton campaign).
The article is realetively balanced but should be read in that light.
Can I point people towards this resource which I’ve found useful -
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=SourceWatch
17
3&8.Paul, go through the last thread and tell me where I defended Cameron’s cycling habits in particular rather than the habits of cyclists in general, which was the wider discussion on the thread that I took part in.
I did reply to your comment, but alas you had jumped onto this thread instead.
“125.Paul, I did not mention Cameron, in fact I have just read the BBC report on the Daily Mirror story *after* I posted my earlier comments. I was talking about cyclists in general, you on the other hand seem to dislike Mr Cameron so much that it is clouding your judgement on this.
I was not defending him, but rather cyclists. The fact that I don’t drive and rely on my bike has more relevance to my opinion. So chill out and stop looking for a Tory defence angle under every comment a Conservative leaning poster makes.”
Bury will not fall into Conservative hands. The minority Conservative council has done a poor job with cock-ups over opposition to the congestion charge and a local school, they had a better chance last year but failed due to generally lazy councillors.
The cycling story is a big boost for Cammo -if it had been anyone but the Mirror I’d have guessed this story was an Andy Coulson moment.
Reminding people that he still regularly cycles to work is yet more proof that he is a regular guy not subverted by the trappings of power and status.
And as for jumping a red light on a push bike (in London) - well lets see - but I think the public will rate it as making him normal, not criminal.
See Guido is complaining about the use of housing allowances which are apparently used by about 600 of the MPs [including Cameron].
He seems particularly confused as to why Brown needs an allowance [17,000+] to pay for a second home when the taxpayer provides that little known pad, 10 Downing Street.
20. I cant believe Cameron’s cycling is making news but I guess it shows how desperate Labour and its mouthpiece the Mirror is..for God’s sake..secretly following someone around on the off-chance they infringe minor driving rules..it is pathetic.but didnt they go through Cameron’s rubbish as well so hardly surprising..
..It was one of thr main items on thr Five Live news but in fact the context was that a head of a cycling organisation was on saying he thought Cameron was behaving totally reasonablly and in fact he was glad this story was given more time than it deserved because it highlighted how ridiculous London signage was for cyclists..
I think last nights council election results are very worrying for the Tories especially in London.
It seems to me that the London Lib Dem effect is being constantly underestimated and if you couple this with the extreme right wing squeezing trad Tory votes then it could spell trouble for Boris and his GLA candidates on May 1st.
The outer London boroughs will deliver a big blue vote but inner London still has the capacity to derail the Conservative machine.
Libs could get close to 30 pct London wide IMHO.
And i am a Tory
Carmeron is a heroic rebel taking a stand against 3 ft long cycle lanes and confusing proliferations of road signs, speed bumps and chicanes.
The only thing that would impress more is if he didnt pay his TV license propaganda tax.
Good article as ever Sean.
Re Cammo: It’s not as if he’s been caught drink driving or driving while using a mobile.
22. I thought the same. It detracts from the ‘car following on’ story.
He DOES use his bike when noone is looking, even though he is Leader of the Oppoition and ,if current polls are maintained, the next PM.
25. A good sell at 30% I would think.
28 - I can picture it now - Cammo cycling to the palace to meet the Queen to be invited to form a government. Police helicopter flying overhead (carrying shoes).
17. And this again shows the reasons for the anonymous MP’s despair….
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/wenn/20080321/ten-prime-minister-brown-i-m-a-huge-fan-c60bd6d.html
…so embarassing
25. Don’t worry about the locals mate. We are merrilly cocking-up ours, even though our PC is already getting numerous calls as if he is the next MP [currently Labour], we have had a spate of new members and helpers into the office, are all over the local press etc.
Much though Mark S thinks they are a reflection, they are not.
Let me see, the Tories have more councillors than the Lib Dems and Labour put together. So we are in Parliament with a thumping majority then?
31. ‘He tells the Daily Mirror…’.
Do you thiunk we will live to see Sir Kevin?
32 - but if the locals last night were good for the Tories, and the opinion polls were bad, Tory posters would say “I don’t believe the polls; it’s real votes in real elections that count.”
23
Guido also had an interesting article on Janet Anderson Labour MP for Rossendale & Darwen who apparently spends the equivalent of 50 days a year in her car!
She managed the record mileage claim amongst all MP’s of 50,000 miles at a cost to the taxpayer of £ 13,881.
Anyone know why an MP would need to spend 50 days a year in their car?
I agree with most of your conclusions, however I will public differ is Bury as I know it well. Regrettably the Conservatives will stand still, possibly only gaining one or two Radcliff Wards, and possibly loose Unsworth plus one other, with the LD gaining St Mary’s. The Conservatives are both defending a high watermark and are running a bad council and campaign.
On my patch I would like to hope that despite not having taken any seats in Manchester the Conservatives have been slowing pilling up the votes from a very low base and this year are in danger of making two electoral gains, sadly not in Wally Range however.
25 You think Paddick will get 30% of the vote? On what basis. THe only scenario I could see him foing that would the total implosion of Ken
For those of you pondering the Vassall result the bit that stood out for me is this.
Labour vote 2006: 1421
Labour vote 2008: 859
Lib Dem vote 2006:1092
Lib Dem vote 2008:1209
ie Labour have lost almost half their vote in two years.
This swing would be enough for the LDs to gain Clapham Common, Stockwell, Knights Hill, Princes, Streatham South, Thornton wards - giving the Lib Dems an outright majority on Lambeth, the GLA seat and (I think) all three Parliamentary seats.
by Rob Blackie March 21st, 2008 at 2:56 am
That’s brave. What Westminster Seats?
Well there is a chance you could see the total implosion of Ken.
If he persists on the personal attack route a lot of voters either will note vote or will switch.
Out canvassing last night and spoke to a few Greens who are disgusted with the way that their leadership endorsed Ken.
Not the fact that they have endorsed him but the way it has been done.
Cyclists should not jump red lights. Full stop.
C’mon Tories. You all jump up and down about law abiding citizens, but the moment that your mighty leader is caught out as playing fast and loose, you all say this is normal, and shows how normal he is. Are you not the same people who attacked Clegg for saying he would go to prison for not signing up to an ID card as ’student politics’. At least there is a principle in that. Will Cameron go on record as saying that he breaks road laws as part of campaign to highlight the problems of cyclists. Or will he just admit he is typical of some cyclists who take short cuts because bikes are nimble, and then wonders why so many of them get hit in heavy traffic.
C’mon Tories. Stop your sad apologist attitude. Either you are believers in law abiding citizenship in all cases and at all levels, or you are not. Let’s see you stand up now and start the ‘Conservatives Condemn Cameron Cycle Crimes Campaign’. It may hurt your General Election prospects to turn on your leader, but hey at least you can go to your grave knowing that you aren’t hypocrites
2 Quite right, I typed the wrong party.
13 I don’t think anyone would now bet against them getting onto the Assembly, and I think 2 seats are likely.
25 Recent London local by-elections haven’t been good for the Conservatives, but I don’t think one can argue with Boris Johnson’s poll lead. Perhaps the Assembly results will be worse than expected for the Conservatives.
Then again i don’t support the motorway speed limit, on safety grounds, so maybe i haven’t got much credibility.
“It may hurt your General Election prospects to turn on your leader, but hey at least you can go to your grave knowing that you aren’t hypocrites :-)”
Or we could join the Lib Dems, safe in the knowledge that we would instantly become holier than thou.
Have a good Easter everybody. I’m off in search of my old pomlazka so I can indulge in traditional central European tradition of beating females on Easter Monday - before Labour bans such great customs.
If any polling is done this weekend, please bear in mind that almost all Tories are currently on skiing holidays.
Thanks Sean , Yapton is a very wealthy collection of villages between Worthing and Littlehampton . Your summary of the Mets is pretty much in agreement with mine . I would though agree with other posters in saying Bury is just beyond outright control with 2 gains from Labour being their best hope and 1 LibDem gain from Labour .
We should also note that there are also at least 6 London BC byelections being held on May 1st including Camden Highgate where the sole Conservative councollor has resigned and the other 2 councillors are Greens .
41 - Paul, Sorry to say this mate, but you’re becoming strangely obsessive: some might even argue neurotic. Have another hot-cross-bun.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7308547.stm
Drinking age in Scotland to rise to 21?
45 - Surely cycling holidays….
41. I think you need to calm yourself down a little bit..take a deep breath and move on to something more important…as much as I am sure Davey C is pleased you are taking him and his minor traffic infractions so seriously..I am sure your own party would prefer you expended your razor intellect and sharp political mind elsewhere..
O/T Betfair currently has stand out odds of 1.35-1 net (1.42 before comm’n) against Obama becoming the next POTUS. This compares with evens or less offered by the major bookies. Approx £300 available at this price.
48 Thought it was 21 -months
John, I am so stuffed with buns and chocolate eggs I can barely move from my computer screen.
48
Cross boarder smuggling raids if true.
Berwick on Tweed to become the smuggling centre of Europe..
The Scots are almost the unhealthiest nation in Europe.. so banning smoking, and battered Mars Bars might help as well…and haggis and mealie puddings..
54
Didn’t Rigsby have a lot of cross boarders ?
31, hahahahahahaha. I wonder if Brown thinks he’s a misunderstood genius too.
51 O/T Easily the best value for those who favour McCain, as brilliantly first spotted by Jan from Norway, is the still available 2-1 offered by the Oz bookie Centrebet, which compares with a best 13/8 available from the UK bookies. Take advantage of their free bet, up to £20, and you effectively get odds of 4-1. Wow!
31 Interesting that Gordon thinks the alleged crack-smoker Amy Winehouse is “misunderstood”. I wonder if he would take a similar position if for example people in other political parties were criticised for, oh I don’t know, youthful experimentation with drugs.* Would he leap to their defence, argiung that they were “misunderstood”, if they received criticism from, oh let’s say, certain Fleet Street editors?
Politicians and popular culture - “Just say no!”
*Or, maybe, their own personal trail-blazing crusades against archaic cycling laws!!
48 Drinking age in Scotland to rise to 21.
A classic and wholly foreseeable counter-productive move. Absolutely crazy!
59, I concur. If you can vote, and fight for your country in the army it’s ridiculous to say “ARGH! A shandy! Put it down!” to anyone wanting a beer.
Not to mention the fact that the term binge-drinking is so amorphous as to be practically useless.
59 - Is this really about drinking, or does someone want English students to stop going to Scottish universities?!
Timmo, Gooshays is part of the Harold Hill Estate and was the bedrock of the Labour vote in Havering until 2006. In fact it was the Labour stronghold of the Borough of Romford prior to the 1964 reorganisation. Even in 1968 Labour held the three Harold Hill wards (Gooshays, Heaton and Hilldene) with substantial majorities. Labour’s loss in 2006 was the first in living memory.
Harold Hill is a classic, LCC designed, cottage estate and is extremely similar to Hainault in Redbridge (also Labour in 1968), Becontree in Barking and DAgenham (Labour in 1968) and Loughton in Epping Forest. The current common denominator of these areas is the rise of the BNP and decline of Labour.
Bearing in mind the Liberal Democrats polled just 52 votes in Gooshays, it is hardly an indicator for their London prospects on May 1st.
59,60&61.It’s about politicians being seen to be dealing with the problem by *legally* punishing those between the ages of 18-21 for all the ills that alcohol bestows on the good folk of Scotland.
I predict that it will be as successful as that ban on Scottish football fans at Wembley. Where there is a will…..
62 And Labour’s decline in these overspill estates is being replicated almost everywhere around London. Labour are now down to 4 out of 11 in Borehamwood, are close to losing in London Colney, have few councillors left in Hatfield, have just 2 councillors left in Hemel Hempstead,and so on.
The concern for the Conservatives must be that if the BNP can really get going in these places, then they’ll be eclipsed along with Labour.
60 As I recall a male drinker drinking 8 units of alcohol is classified a ‘binge drink’-this equates to 3 pints of ale at c 4.7 % ABV-utter,utter poppycock!
63 I used to have a licquor license, and whilst generally agreed with the changes to licensing law (inc 24 hour theoretical drinking), there were a number of missed opportunities.
Smoking could have been licensed (max 15% of premises), to allow for autonomy, without forcing smoking back into the home, where children are at risk (v bar staff, who have a degree of choice as to where they work, and many of whom smoke anyway).
The way in which music and performance were licensed is still a complete mess, and the Musicians’ Union were right to fight the changes as vociferously as they did.
However, the biggest mistake was missing the opportunity to provide for safe, legal drinking by 14-17 year-olds. Imagine that there was a bar only open to people of this age group, staffed with multiple licensees, limiting drinks to two or three per person, with security and a duty doctor on hand. It would provide teenagers with somewhere they could go legally, instead of swigging vodka on street corners and causing trouble. Many would still do that, and many would still go to regular bars, but it would provide a safe environment for many to get used to drinking semi-responsibly, and allow them to build a tolerance for alcohol under supervision.
At least the provision should have been included. My college had a special license to serve 16 and 17 year olds beer cider and wine - it worked pretty well.
65 continued An old boy living near me lived to within a fortnight of his 90th birthday,went to his local nightly,drinking four or five pints of bitter a night(roughly my intake)-often this govt takes a patronising purinitical tone that even I,an up-to-now Labour voter am getting p1ssed off with
66 Am I correct in recalling the laws in Scotland used to permit consumption of cider by 16 year-olds,if accompanied by an over-18 year old?
Raising the drinking age to 21 would be
a) suicide for the SNP
b) Utterly counterproductive; witness the USA re: campus drinking on universities.
It also makes a mockery of the legal age of majority being 18.
34. No I wouldn’t.
As for our ‘Locals’ we now so dominate that the only challenge is to see if we can be a Lib Dem free zone. Much as that would be nice it is not a massive motivator.
If it was a general, it would certainly be worth putting down my mug of tea and homemade chocolate cake in front of a roaring fire and getting off my a***.
66 staffed with multiple licensees, limiting drinks to two or three per person, with security and a duty doctor on hand
This sounds like a reasonable idea, Morus - but how much would the drinks cost with this level of staffing - £10 a pint?
I can see the Lib Dems making some gains against Labour in the Metropolitan Boroughs. Wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Lib’s win the share of the vote in these inner suberb’s, with Labour and Conservatives quite eually matched.
Labour’s share of the vote looks in serious trouble to me, but how that’ll work out in terms of seats remains to be seen.
70 Sally, you live in the Ilkley area then?
71.Just be given a recipe for a yoghurt cake (my friend is a Libdem voter), she assures me even I could not screw it up. That was greeted by a chorus of “what to bet on it” in this household…..
odd coincindences alert- congratulation to Steve Bradley, the new Lib Dem cllr for Vassall ward, who in a previous life used to work for me in Newcastle as an assistant rand manager on daz!
Also a former washing powder magnate up in Newcastle is Tory PPC for Tooting, Mark Clarke. So it seems washing powder advertisers are trying to take over south London politics
74. No. North not West Yorks.
75. I am not ba great fan of yoghurt cake. Still high in calories and not really worth the sin.
76. Was going to do a cleaning up politics joke, but was overwhelmed with embarrassment.
68 - I have no idea about Scottish licensing law, I’m afraid, but such provisions were contained in England and Wales’ old licensing acts, before they were harmonised in the 1960s, so it sounds plausible.
72 - Revenue as a problem? Three alcoholic drinks, but add in food and soft drinks, and plenty of bars survive on less than that as a ‘drinks per customer’ ratio.
Shouldn’t be that expensive either - there should be a licensee on premises at all times (best practice as a defence if something goes wrong, rather than legal obligation), but essentially experienced staff would suffice, so not much more expensive than most bars. Security is a standard cost for most bars and nightclubs now, so the only significant extra cost would be medical attention on-site. This could be St John’s Ambulance, or paramedics nearby, or a doctor, but nothing too expensive.
Weighg all of this against the cost of a phone box or bus shelter being smashed up, and there’s no way that price should prevent this. Given that you would have a captive market, I have no concerns that such bar could not sustain itself. I would happily see some of my council tax supporting such a venture, if needed, as it would get youths off the streets, without treating them like criminals.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers and Minnesota Poll :
McCain 51% .. Clinton 41%
McCain 49% .. Obama 41%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 45%
Minnesota :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 43% .. Obama 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Got to catch a train, away for a few days.
Happy Easter to one and all…
80.This ban would do nothing to prevent the street crime and general disorder already blighting many cities and towns because of binge drinking.
77 That being the case, you must be a Hagueite. If so, I’m jealous - you truly do live in “God’s own county”.
81 The ongoing dog fight for the Democratic nomination is defintely benefitting the GOP-I frequently visit the SPUPAEB Rasmussen site
One point -Minnoseta was the only state carried by Walter Mondale in 1984 (and by only 0.5%)-I know there are 228 days to go,but coupled with blue-collar Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan being ‘too close to call’,I’m starting to fear the Democratic Party will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again..I hope and pray I am wrong
57 Thanks, PfP. The Rasmussen numbers for McCain keep improving. Today he leads Clinton by 10 and Obama by 8 - both are best ever, I believe. Gallup numbers have also improved for him, whereas other recent polls are close. If these tracking poll trends solidifies, McCain will soon overtake Obama as favourite in the markets, although it will take a lot more to move him to evens. Time to buy.
Regarding the fall out from Bikegate;
1. I think most people will think its pretty shocking that the Labour supporting Mirror is following around the Leader of the Opposition on the off chance of ctaching him doing something.
2. The Tories will possibly lose a few supporters over Cameron jumping the red light….
3. But will gain many more who will be impressed that even with his status Cameron still cycles to work just like a “normal” person, not to mention the Cameron publicty angle, where, when DC is in the spotlight, his ratings go up.
If Labour and their media supporters want to boost their ratings, here’s a tip; Start making Brown the story, not Cameron.
An interesting overview of the state of play from ABC News :
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
81 - Slight improvement for Clinton, with polls being a lagging indicator (and that’s before we get to the nature of tracking polls) I would look to the middle of next week as the time we get a clear picture of the Wright fallout.
85 - Indeed, someone in the Dem hierarchy has to say enough is enough at some point soon. If this allowed to go to the convention it will be seen as the action of a party that doesn’t mind losing.
84. No, afraid not - but the wrinklies are. Bit further south. In a Labour marginal. Thats why it soooo worth it come the next GE.
Agree at 87 save that the sticklers for the rule book tend to be old Tories. They have been upset by him already[!] but not as much as by Brown.
41. One of the saddest, most feeble posts ever. Talk about self-parody.
90. That’ll be round Tadcaster way then.
GIN. I like the idea that Cameron’s road trip makes him ’seem more normal’. Is that a tacit admission that in fact the man is as abnormal as I think he is?
90 You’ll be a wrinkly one day, as Dave might once have said!
93 You should know!
87 GIN
‘If Labour and their media supporters want to boost their ratings, here’s a tip; Start making Brown the story, not Cameron. ‘
Cheeky. You know that always works:-)
93. You are getting warmer.
97 You mean as in the eponymous warm beer!
94. Well, he’s a multi millionare toff who happens to lead the oldest political party in the world and will probably become Prime Minister at some point in the future.
On the other hand compared to Brown, he is positively a “man of the people”
87. The problem is, while the more people see Cameron they instinctively like him, the more people see Brown, the more they instinctively dislike him….
100. apart from paul lloyd of course
Regarding the Richardson endorsement, people should not bet on him to be VP. I thought a black-hispanic ticket was already unlikely but pastorgate has made it out of the question. Obama needs to fight McCain for white blue collar workers, and that means a white, male VP.
86 JfN - You are so convincing, I’m off now to load some more on the old man, who I see is in London today meeting Dave.
If like most here, one discounts Hillary, backing both McCain and Obama, both at odds against, looks a sounds strategy.
87. It is also a concern about personal security that someone can follow cammo like that. He is a slightly important person and just seems he is vulnerable cycling to work as a potential target.
just watched the BBC news piece on Cameron…..so ridiculous, whats wrong with our politics one week plastic bag tax the next week, cyclist undercuts a bollard shocker.
just for the record i am a cyclist and i break every rule of the road.
94. Do you really want ‘normal’ people as politicians? Think about it. Do you want a normal person to be your Doctor? Do you want normal people to entertain you on TV? Do you want normal people to fly fighter jets? Do you want normal people to be in charge of scientific research?
Please save me from ‘normal’ people. We want character, we want difference, we want extrovert, we want people with keen minds, we want people who are un-ordinary as possible.
Think about people who have become well known politicians, i cant think of any of them as normal. Johnson, Livingstone, Thatcher, Blair, Heath, Churchill, Foot, Powell, Benn, Widdecombe, Hague, Brown.
None of them could be, even by a generous definition by considered normal.
You can wallow in your desire for egalitarian mediocrity, I would rather the brightest and the best, the elite, were in charge.
Would it have made any difference if it wasnt the Daily muckraker who ran the story???. The fact that its the Mirror shows to me how desperate Labour are becoming. They should be worried, and this story will make no difference whatsoever apart from making the Mirror look incredibly feeble.
105,Although,on BBC Four about 18 months ago there was a very lovely political history story ‘The unlikely Mr.Attlee’-a portrayal of an ordinary,middle-class chap who IMHO was one of,if not the greatest peacetime PMs of the 20th century.
The programme showed Attlee at home as well as on the political stage;he was shown eating with his family,smoking his pipe (normal for the late 1940s:wink)-I hear your point loud and clear,indeed largely agree but just wanted to share my enjoyment of this documantary
Cameron is ‘Man Of The People’.
In tune with the man on the street. In this case he was in a hurry to get away - sensing they were nutters on his tail.
[105] Am I the only Peebie who never expected to see the names of Boris Johnson, Gordon Brown, Ken Livingstone and Anne Widdecombe in the same sentence as the word “élite”?
What are you on, Gaz?
102 He’d be a good Secretary of State bet for Obama
But Labouirites think David Davis is posh and Ed Balls, man of the people.
107. thanks…… It could be argued it took forty five years to undo some of the damage is policies caused though. It could also be claimed that it was his misuse of the restructuring funds offered by the USA post WW2 which made the difference between the prosperity of Germany and France by the eighties, and the economic basket case that was the UK.
109. They are an elite. They are not only an elite of the general population, but an elite within their own profession.
110. He’s guaranteed a place in the cabinet. Secretary of State certainly seems the most likely.
I’m increasingly thinking Jim Webb will be the VP choice.
114 I think they’d be loth to give up such a hard won Senate seat. Warner or Kaine would fit that bill just as well as Webb
O/T I’ve a tennis tip for anyone following the Pacific Life Open in Indian Wells this evening. It’ll be on SkySports and it’s Mardy Fish (great name) to beat David Nalbandian with a 3.5 game handicap in the quarterfinal. He’s won their only match and has been playing some wonderful tennis. Naldbandian has the ability to completely turn off for a set (he beat Stepanek 7/6 0-6 7/6 in an earlier round) which is great for game handicap bets. Fish’s strong serve means that he keeps most sets very tight.
Back Fish to win (+3.5) with at 5/6. It’s also worth having a second bet on Fish winning 2-1 in sets at a big 11/2 with Stan James, Boyle Sports or Bet365
Bill Richardson has a cool beard.
This is a heck of an endorsement speech.
85. I’m starting to fear the Democratic Party will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again..I hope and pray I am wrong
I think that this time the Democratic Party will lose the presidential election a clear margin - i.e. beyond the margin of ballot-rigging and irregularities which probably cost them the elecvtions in 2000 and 2004. I reckon something like McCain 54% Obama 44%.
O/T I’ve a tennis tip for anyone following the Pacific Life Open in Indian Wells this evening. It’ll be on SkySports and it’s Mardy Fish (great name) to beat David Nalbandian with a 3.5 game handicap in the quarterfinal. He’s won their only match and has been playing some wonderful tennis and has beaten classy opponents. Naldbandian is right to be favourite, but not by the margin the odds suggest. Crucially has the ability to completely turn off for a set (he beat Stepanek 7/6 0-6 7/6 in an earlier round) which is great for game handicap bets. Fish’s strong serve means that he is hard to break.
Back Fish to win (+3.5) at 5/6 with Boyle Sports or Skybet. It’s also worth having a small second bet on Fish winning 2-1 in sets at 11/2 with Stan James, Boyle Sports or Bet365. This appeals slightly more than the 12/5 on the match win, but the handicap is where the big value is.
116. Sorry somehow posted before ready.
111. I don’t. I think Davis is formidable and resonates particularly well in Yorkshire and the North. He looks like a Home Secretary in waiting. Can’t say the same about the rest of the Shadow Cabinet.
From the BBC US election rivals files breached.
“A state department employee looked at the files of both Republican candidate John McCain and Democratic front-runner Barack Obama, the department said.
State department spokesman Sean McCormack said a trainee also accessed Hillary Clinton’s file last year.”
22 - much as I am loathe to agree with Mr. Wood, and am nauseated by his use of the terms “Cammo” and “push bike”, I believe he’s right.
I’m generally turned off my Cameron’s cycling antics, but what this proves is:
1. He really does cycle to work. No joke.
2. He’s had the decency to apologise.
3. The Mirror are desperate to attack him and could only come up with this odd stalkerish activity.
122. Even one capable looking person in the cabinet would be an improvement on the current situation, though.
124 - when I said “I’m generally turned off my Cameron’s cycling antics” I was of course referring to “the briefcase and shoes in the car” incident, not his cycling generally.
[124] The story made the ITV lunchtime news. They interviewed Boris who said “show me the evidence” - segue into the video-clip of which the stills were in the “Mirror”.
God only knows what some people here would’ve made of that if the Beeb had done it…
119 Based on what.
127 - yikes. I must say Boris was foolish to say that, then.
128 - absolute guesswork, I’d imagine. Figures extracted from rectal region.
128. Not much, just a hunch. Partly because of hysteria and the frenzy of imperialism in the USA. (Maybe I’m just a pessimist.)
116 Henry - you appear to have omitted the bookie’s name offering the vodds of 5/6. In fact, Sportingbet are offering these same odds applying a 4 game handicap. Is this effectively the same as a 3.5 game handicap?
If your player wins, does he metamorphise to become Happy Fish?
124,
Why did he have to apoligise.
Should have the courage of his convictions.
And stick two fingers up to the people who complain about cyclist,not conforming rigidily to traffic laws.
Would have got backing from Mike on here, and many other cyclists, who don
133 con`t don`t think the law applies to them.
A woman was killed in York recently when a man furiously riding a bike went through a red light and knocked her over.
Just watched the Richardson endorsement speech. Did I depict a hint to Hilary to withdraw, talking of needing to fight the Republicans only etc.
132 Henry - on my first point, I’ve now seen your post #120, sorry.
132. Yes it’s Boylesports - my post on 120 has the full details. The Sportingbet handicap means that if the games total is level then you lose - they’ll price up a draw. Don’t be tempted by it - sod’s law will say you’ll just miss out. My general rule is to prefer markets with two outcomes rather than three, so my recomendation is go for the 3.5 handicap.
Hillary may be in some trouble over her campaign finances - seems the total she claimed to have raised in February was $16m overblown! So $19m not $34m as she has claimed. Worse still:
“most of the $19 million that Clinton did raise in February was either offset by unpaid bills or was “general election” money (what big donors, lobbyists and PACs that have already given the maximum $2,300 to the primary campaign then give to a fund that can only be used if the candidate becomes the nominee)”
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=926
Just what America needs as it lurches into recession - more Enron-style accounting….
135. Richardson had a 1 in 2 chance of being the VP choice if Clinton got the nomination. That he backed Obama instead says to me that he knows Clinton wouldn’t win.
Cycling on telly tonight: 8pm ITV The London Programme. Andrew Gilligan reports on whether cycling is too dangerous. In London, cyclists are killed or seriously injured at the rate of one a day.
135.Will the improved McCain polling figures against both Clinton and Obama increase the chances of pressure being applied to Clinton from within the Democratic party encouraging her to step down gracefully and endorse Obama?
132. While we’re talking about tennis and fish, another player, Radek Stepanek does something grotesque if he wins a big match. He lies down on his front, on court, and gyrates like a fish. It’s revolting - he’s not the best looking fellow either. Goodness knows how he managed to go out with Martina Hingis.
139. Good point.
41. Presumably the person following “Dave” did not mind disobaying the signs either, plus they were holding a camara?
If you have ever cycled anywhere it is common practice to navigate roads in this way!
Regarding the loacl elections, is postal voting going to be a big issue again this year?
For those who were wondering what Richardson said in Spanish, his words were “This is a man who will respect us.”
146. Goodness the stream of pious, over-earnest bullsh*t continues in the US, doesn’t it?
112 Without wishing a huge argument,it could be reasonably stated far better use could have been made of our 1980s North Sea Oil reserves,than the actual case wherby it was used as a sticking plaster to cover the catostrophic errors betweeen 1979 and 1981,resulting in 3 million plus unemployed for many,many years-North Sea Oil was wasted while those poor bastards were thrown on the scrapheap.
Some on here love ‘effiency’,'producutivity’-personally I’d rather be a few percenatge points less efficient,less productive,than emulate some of the worst sweatshops in south-east asia.For the record I am a council worker,I work quite hard,but I cannot and will not accept the worst extemes of laissez-faire capitalism
148 yawn
148. Being a Council Worker, you never will have to face capitalism, those of us in the productive economy pay for you and your pension, and do.
148.
For the record I am a council worker 
Sweatshop conditions for you on your teabreaks!
147. Given the rhetoric towards Hispanics by Republicans in DC, it’s not overearnest for several million Americans.
148. North sea Oil finished off British manufacuring due to its affects on sterling combined with the Unions stranghold on manufacturers. If the Tories killed off manufacturing, how come Labour have lost over a million manufacturing jobs since coming to power.
One thing being an MP has taught me is not to get seriously into cycling debates - having grown up in Denmark where everyone uncontentiously cycles on broad separate tracks, I wasn’t prepared for the venom on both side when I proposed having bells on new bikes back in 1998 at the request of a local blind person. I like cycling and want to promote it, and was dismayed to find I got both embarrassing support (’All cyclists are maniacs!”) and hate mail (”You Stalinist bastard!”). Everyone with an opinion on the subject seemed to carry it to extremes, either virtually wanting cycling banned or defending a total disdregard for the law (like Jimbo above). I’ve tried ever since to concentrate on less controversial issues like the European Union…
142. Henry G. I’ve noticed that you have had some good successes with your Tennis Bets. Unfortunately for me, when I have followed you on a couple of longer shots, I have not been successful.
Do you keep a record of your overall success rate from Tennis bets. Percentage profit on stakes?
Hope you don’t mind my asking and best of luck with your bet.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 48% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 47% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 45%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105559/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Now-47-Obamas-45.aspx
148. After twenty years there are still 3m unemployed only nowadays 2m of them are claiming sickness (because since the early 1990’s they get more that way) - after 11 years of Labour nothing has changed.
I’d love to know what you would have done differently with the oil money?
Kept 200,000 working at Leyland making Morris Marina’s that could sit rusting in fields? - Keep 75,000 down the pits digging coal nobody wants?
Do tell.
154.
Well, you will have to watch you don’t go against the public signs on the EU treaty! Whenever i go on my bike i often ride on the pavement to avoid being splattered by big lorries and maniac drivers.
157. You could actually argue that the oil paid for council workers in the bad times in that downturn. Maybe the council workers should have done it for free?