The Democratic race - where are we?
March 21st, 2008
As the chart, showing the Clinton-Obama fight in terms of the implied probabilities of odds on UK betting markets, illustrates the events of the past week have had an impact but not that much.
A number of visitors have expressed surprise at my continuing view that Hillary is still in with a shout even though the pledged delegate totals are against her. Perhaps the best articulation of my nagging doubts about Obama’s chances comes from the US blogger who, for me, has become the most authoritative guide to this fascinating election, Marc Ambinder.
Obama’s had a tough week, as numbers everywhere reflect, including the Gallup daily track (but not the Rasmussen track) and three state polls showing Clinton outperforming Obama against McCain in Ohio, Missouri and even making Kentucky somewhat competitive.
But the Obama campaign has met the challenge of Rev. Wright, perhaps sufficiently, perhaps not. But from the perspective of wavering superdelegates, it’s hard to find a level of panic among them. Obama has four weeks to recover until Pennsylvania; assuming that the bad news evens out the good news, the attitudes of these superdelegates will degrees to the mean and they won’t be a position to rethink the entire premise of Obama’s candidacy.
The see-saw numbers change every week; why would superdelegates put more stock in them now versus last week versus two weeks from now?
And Florida and Michigan aren’t going to re-vote. The chances for their Jan. 29 delegations to be seated intact are slim to shred.
Clinton may well win the political argument in Florida and Michigan, but she won’t win a single delegate from those two states until at least April, when the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee might decide to seat superdelegates based on the appeal of DNC member Jon Ausman.
To put it crudely, the analyst’s emotional brain feels momentum for Hillary; the analyst’s analytical brain can’t quite figure out how Obama loses.
The latest nomination betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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In essence, I’d agree that Hilary has got some momentum (or at least, equalled Obama’s momentum), but the finishing line is now too close for “some momentum” to be sufficient. She needs an overwhelming momentum advantage.
Unless that happens - or the superdelegates are effectively persuaded that there is an overwhelming case for Clinton over Obama - it’s too little, too late. And I can’t realistically see either option.
I’m possibly biased (as an Obamacon), but the feel that I’ve gleaned from being in the US this week is that Clinton has lost but not yet laid down to die.
Of course, with all that said, there’s many a slip ‘twixt dress and drawers (as Nanny Ogg would say): Clinton’s chances are now dependent on an Obama calamity of some description.
The question is whether the lengthy and prolonged Democrat fight (which, I hasten to add, to me seems laudable for the democratic process itself) will have provided an advantage to McCain that he can exploit. Of course, with the Democrat nominee tempered by the heat of the contest in a way that certain other politicians (cough - Gordon Brown - cough) have never been, they’d be in a position to roll out the big guns on McCain with confidence.
I think there is a real chance (10% or 20% perhaps) that Obama’s campaign might implode or crash into serious difficulties - for whatever reasons (personal, moral, policy, ability, experience, whatever) - and that a lot of his pledged delegates (including elected delegates and superdelegates) might swing to voting for Hilllllary at the convention anyway. Never mind the fact that they are pledged to vote for Obama; it is unenforceable and they can’t be physically forced to vote for him.
What kind of week it’s really been for Obmama is yet to be scene.
At worst it appears that he’s turned a negative into a draw, for the short term. At best, it may turn out that he’s polished his “presidential timber” for the long haul, by wrestling with the 8,000-lb gorilla in the room.
But what about Hillary Clinton & John McCain?
Hasn’t been a great week for Sen. Clinton. Highlight of her calendar was getting to sit glumly in the front row at the swearing in of new NY Governor David Patterson, the final act of the Theatre of the Absurd that was the self-destruction of Elliot Spitzer. A drama that of course reminded everybody about the Clinton’s own soap opera.
Hardly presidential, leastways in a manner that Hillary Clinton would wish to evoke.
Other than that, there was the after burn of the Geraldine Ferraro Affair, which demonstrates yet again (as in 1984 presidential, 1986 NY US Senate primary, 1992 NY US Sen primary) that Ms Ferraro is about as toxic on the stump as it is possible to be. And this year she’s campaigning for Hillary, at Mrs Clinton’s own invitation.
Tell me there is no such thing as the Cosmic Joke!
Yet none can deny that there is high-tempered steel at the core of this amazing woman. Indeed, only the likes of McCain and Obama are anywhere even near to the same fighting, presidential caliber in this year 2008.
And for sure, let’s not forget John McCain.
Though he would surely wish that we would, leastways where he’s concerned. Because the big thing for him was not being able to tell Shite from Shinola.
Which either means that he doesn’t know his stuff OR that he had a “senior moment”. Either way it’s NOT presidential.
Plus he’s hanging out in Iraq right when our Fearless Leader is yet again proclaiming victory. Only this time the “Guns AND Butter” policy has finally gone Splat in a most spectatular way.
Re #2, think that Obama’s last week shows he can take a licking and keep on ticking, indeed might even benefit the long run. Also that a extending Democratic race may not be to McCain’s great advantage.
Question of whether extended Democratic donnybrook is big boost for McCain is still open, methinks.
Of course most of you sons and daughters of Perfidious Albion (or is that perfidious sons & daughters etc?) totally fail to realize that the start of MARCH MADNESS means that millions of otherwise engaged Americans are going to take a holiday for politics in favor of college basketball.
Indeed most of the folks I know are reaching the point of near-total turnoff when it comes to the whole subject of presidential politics.
We’ve been going at it pretty much non-stop since Christmas. Time for Spring Break!
4 Can someone please explain the appeal of basketball to me?
A group of extremely tall genetic mutants run to one end of a gym. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. THEY MISS!!! Woo-hoo! They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score. They run to the other end. They score…..
5. It’s the same sort of deranged bourgeois perversion as golf or football or ballroom dancing or goat-wrangling or home-mad-marmalade or the other ridiculous things which distract the proletariat from reading Marxist-Leninist literature.
I think I agree with JohnLoony about there being a 10% or 20% chance of Obama running into serious difficulties by the convention - maybe higher, depending on your definition of serious. But even then, he only loses the nomination if:
a) someone else is in a better position, probably Hillary, and hasn’t run into serious difficulties as well.
b) enough delegates (super or pledged) decide to jump.
Making his chances of winning the nomination something like 95%. Certainly no lower than 90%.
So why does it still feel like Hillary must have a better chance than that? My guess:
1) There’s a whole mythology built up around the Clintons - including the negative charicature of Hillary as some kind of cold, ruthless evil genius.
2) The media is still acting like it’s a close race (because they need a story) and their message is seeping into people’s subconscious.
Meanwhile Jeremiah Wright was a guest of Bill Clinton’s at the White House at a gatering of religious leaders. Politico has a picture.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Jeremiah_Wright_was_White_House_guest.html
Gov. Bill Richardson Endorses Barack Obama:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/21/33047/3247
this could finally be the beginning of the end
9 That is BIG news. It could well start the ball rolling with other Super-D’s.
This is a two horse race. Most people I speak to in the UK seem to think that the race is yet to start and there is all too play for. In fact they are turning for home and Obama is many lengths clear and showing no signs of tying up.
He has jumped well, at worst brushing through the top of a few hurdles but never looking likely to fall. He is approaching the final hurdle and unless he makes a most uncharacteristic blunder he will soon be easing past the finishing post. Meanwhile Hillary has yet to jump the third last. She has closed a couple of lengths but remains a distance behind. Her only chance is that he falls at the last hurdle or does a Devon Loch on the run in.
StJohn - You make him sound like one of PtP’s certainties!!
9 So the race speech seems to have been the clincher for Richardson. Resonated with him as an Hispanic too. Interesting.
Got to hurt Clinton - especially with Richardson calling Obama a “once-in-a-generation” candidate.
McCains claims of descent from Robert the Bruce, may be wide of the mark.
http://tinyurl.com/2nh4mb
Hmmm! perhaps he has a luminous gold cross between his shoulder blades.
The, ‘Daily Mash’ on the crucfixion of Ruth Kelly.
http://tinyurl.com/2l38yc
Well! it is topical.
7. If you believe Hillary to be a minimum of a 9/1 shot, why are others - including Mike - happy to trade at much lower odds? If that’s what you believe, there’s a huge amount of value for you in laying Hillary.
I think the answer is in your last point. The media is acting like it’s a close race because they need a story; they’re acting like that because it IS a close race. Sure, Obama will win providing he keeps campaigning as he has so far - but that’s like saying the leading athlete in a race will win if he keeps running fastest. While I don’t agree entirely with JohnLoony at [2] - the pledged delegates are pretty much required to do as told and if they don’t, that could have consequences for their future political careers - there are a lot of others still in play, especially superdelegates who can change their minds if the circumstances require it.
Excellent posts at [1] and [3], by the way, from Andy and SSI, making some very good points. I mentioned yesterday that one of the best bits of news for Obama is the way the story has moved on for him after pastor-gate. If the media in general think the issue has gone as far as it’s going to, then that’s likely to neuter it for the remainder of the primary camapaign. It still leaves him a little more vulnerable for the time being to an attack on a different front - no-one looks too impressive when under constant fire - but as Hillary seems to be the one under more pressure at the moment, that should be OK for him.
9 - yes significant, not least in terms of the VP race!
And 10-20% chance of Obama exploding seems pretty high to me - my gut feel is that it would have been last week over the race issues if it was going to happen. His courage in coming out in the open and speaking out on the critical and senstive issue seems to have made a real impression, and the comparison’s against Gordon Brown’s lack of courage are obvious.
I watched the whole speech and personally wasn’t blown away the way that others here & in the media were, but it was solid, reassuring stuff, and if that’s a sign of how he handles difficulties then he seems very assured.
12. Icarus. Hmmm….
And they don’t always hose up do they?
re 16. I’ve now changed my betting position and am laying Clinton.
[19] Keep it clean, Mike, especially on Good Friday
19 Looks sensible. You have to think this will change sentiment when the US wakes up in a few hours.
19. Ah. Must have missed you saying that, but it’s a call I’d agree with - I wouldn’t put her as long as Edmund’s minimum 9/1, but I would say she should be on the high side of 5/1.
Massive news about Richardson :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120608338455654529.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
19 Mike is a confessed flip-flopper
in the sense that he follows short-term movements and place bets (most often successfully) according to what he perceives as value at any single point. (I do this myself, to a lesser degree). His Clinton bets must also be seen in the light of his considerable and early bet on Obama for president.
I changed my position, both publicly and in my betting portfolio, from Clinton to Obama on February 11th, and have seen no reason to reverse that later on - i.e. Clinton has never been value after this date.
Clinton has only one chance now. Obama must fall catastrophically in the McCain match-up polls, towards a ten percent deficit, and she must hold on to evens or better, in order to sway the super-delegates. Her only argument will be that Obama will clearly lose to McCain, and she will likely win. We see no sign of such a development at the moment, although Clinton seem to be somewhat better placed in Ohio (and Florida, but Florida is not a real swing state IMO - McCain will win it or suffer a landslide.)
I believe only a major scandal - much bigger than the Wright stuff, can move these numbers by such a magnitude. Fair value IMO is about 1.20-1.25 on Obama. This means I’m still buying him, but not heavily, as I’m already dark green.
Sorry I forgot my manners.
May I wish all Pbers a peaceful Easter and enjoyable holiday break.
There are some new Survey USA match-ups today not yet on the RCP page.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
In New Mexico both Obama and Clinton leads McCain by 6, Washington Obama leads by 11, Clinton by 6, Oregon Obama +9, Clinton +6, Virginia +1, Clinton 0, Iowa Obama +5, Clinton -4.
All in all good for the democrats, especially Obama.
re 24. I should add that my Betfair activity is only a small part of my overall betting on this race.
re 25. We are deeply honoured that you can continue to post here given your great age. I can only assume that this is part of a McCain strategy to prove that being old and decrepit is not necessarily a disadvantage in spite of the odd senior monemt.
Wonder how Mark Senior managed to miss this? He is usually so well briefed on councillors in trouble, but less so when they are Liberal Democrats
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/walthamforestnews/walthamforestnews/display.var.2136976.0.waltham_forest_councillor_guilty_of_assault_on_wife.php
[28] May I second that. To give younger readers a sense of just how old Jack W is, he is the same age as the widow of the man who designed Britain’s last main-line steam railway locomotives.
So many thoughtful comments on this thread. I pretty much agree (from my pro-Clinton position), with one difference in emphasis. Yes, only a major blunder or scandal will stop Obama now. But pastorgate has raised sufficient doubts that *one* blunder would in fact probably derail him. There is a fine line between ‘exciting new direction’ and ‘risky new direction’, and pastorgate has moved Obama closer to that line. He needs to play it very cautiously till it’s a done deal.
28/30 Mike S/IA. Thank you fans.
However you shouldn’t mistake mere stripplings such as McCain, Cliff Richard and the Rolling Stones for that greater level of being, encapsulating as I do the wisdom, fine living, innate modesty and rampant sexual prowess that any Jacobite Centenarian brings to the table.
Jack W is 105.
……………………
26 JfN. Thanks for those numbers.
[31] Nick Palmer writes there is a fine line between ‘exciting new direction’ and ‘risky new direction’ and thus sums up the history of the Labour government 1997-2010
re 31. Nick - I wonder whether the Wright linkage and the speech make it much harder for the party not to nominate him - provided he wins the pledged delegate battle. The Bill Richardson news, coming only a couple of days after the speech, underlines the point. Others will, surely, follow in Richardson’s wake.
The heat has yet to be turned up on McCain’s fundamental flaw - his great age. Once the notion of him having “senior moments” catches on then it could be hard to stop. He got away with the blunder in Iraq but he can’t expect the same treatment every time.
34 Mike S. There are of course ’senior moments’ and ‘Senior moments’.
As to the former, the odd dribble down the left cheek when misnaming Iraq for Iran never did the ‘Texas Village Idiot’ much harm, so McCain is probably safe there.
However as to the latter, I fear a visit to Worthing and ensuing bar billiard scandal and flirtation with rampant sandal and quiche LibDemmery moments will see a crash in his fortunes similiar to that of Robert Killjoy Sunk and Veritarse !!
We await a visit to the Sussex coast with interest.
Surely the political news of the day??
http://tinyurl.com/29zav9
Hangings to good for those people, that what I say.
Perhaps the bet is Republican or Democrat? Betfair is 1.58 Democrat 2.7 Republican.
Meanwhile back in London BNP and Lib Dems win the by elections (Lib Dem a spectacular gain in Lambeth - BNP a hold).
It seems that the voters don’t like Labour or Cameron’s Conservatives.
36. That is a truly stunning piece of journalism..I imagine Labour will be back in front come the next set of opinion polls. The Mirror is clearly the Left’s Daily Express.
An interesting insight into whether the south western states are in play, the more so after Richardson’s endorsement of Obama :
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=southwest_passage
BTW Obama in on CNN now on “Larry King”.
Remaining result from last night Arun DC Yapton Con hold Con 620 LibDem 212 BNP 205 . Comfortable Conservative hold small swing to LibDem .
40 - In what must surely be the toughest interview of his campaign so far
re 36 . Surely the person who was following him was also breaking the law - or else how did he get the pictures?
As someone for whom cycling is the main mode of transportation I sympathise. Busting a red light or going the wrong way down a one way street when it’s safe to do so are the same as motorists travelling at 31 mph in an urban area.
In the early 80s I was amongst hundreds of cyclists who were busted pedalling along the wrong paths in Hyde Park. Our defence was that a high proportion of motor vehicles on the legal alternative were exceeding the speed limits and we were taking alternative, albeit illegal, routes for our own safety. The prosecution was dropped. One of the accused was a crown court judge.
Still it’s very hard for Cameron and he should not let himself be open to this sort of accusation.
Mike, the government has amended the law to allow gambling on good friday.
Personally I think GB should have shut you down today.
Made you eat fish and think about your religious beliefs instead of trying to make money.
42 John O. Indeed. But ‘Larry King’ is an immensely popular show and no candidate will pass it up.
I’ve had to turn down the Karry Ling show on the Hersham News Network due to an prior hard ball interview with Sooty and Sweep !! …. That Sue makes Paxman appear like a glove puppet !!
Of the notable endorsements, Obama now has Richardson, Kerry and Edward Kennedy, amongst others. Who does Hillary have endorsing her that is a household name? Bill I suppose.
36. pathetic, but no-one ill take any notice. the mirror hates the tories and takes every chance they can to bash them.
47
When I put that on, I had a private bet with myself, that, ‘cuddles’ would pop up within 10 posts, it was the 11′th.
to follow on, it reminds me of that story they tried to start over david cameron ’snubbing’ a fireman and his wife who he had invited to a party. They pushed it heavily for one day,asked cameron about it at his monthly press conference, then dropped it when they realised it was a load of rubbish.
48. sorry, i would have been faster, but i was putting flowers on my grandparents graves.
47-cuddles- where is your sense of humour? This was obviously a mickey take piece!
Maybe you want to deify Cameron now? The man is beyond even urine extraction in your book.
51. oh no, taking the mick is fine, but the mirror means it. They hate cameron and the tories so much it’s beyond a joke, they dont like the lib dems too much either. and trying to portray me as some kind of cameron worshipping tory so you can dimiss my opinion isnt a great startegy either tyson.
46 Jack Nicholson
52
Put that cold compress on your forehead and lie down in a darkened room.
Hmmm the Mirror doesn’t like the Tories, well what ever next?
You’ll be telling us next the, ‘Telegraph/Mail don’t like Labour, although its fair to say they ain’t too keen on the Tories at present.
re 51. So what - or should I say “so weak”. The Mirror hates Cameron just like the Standard hates Ken. We have a free press here and inevitably there will be things that you do not agree with.
52- cuddles- you are so slavishly partisan to Cameron and the Tories that it is difficult to take your opinion seriously, as to many others here. Looking at everything through blue tinted spectacles.
54. no, they dont, however at leats they attempt to appear a bit unbias, the mirror would just put camerons picture on the cover with ‘bastard’ above it if they could.
56. kinda like you and the lib dems then.
55- Mike Smithson- please refrain from reminding us of Balls existence. It was bad enough that you did your spoof leader the other day claiming that he was being groomed to be the next Lab leader.
The Cameron/bad cycling story was one of the main headlines on GMTV this morning. They had Kevin MacGuire and Martin linton discussing it this morning with Mrs Derek Draper(Kate Garraway) who were all very negative about what Cameron had done. The viewers posting in on the other hand were to use the infamous words of the Rt. Hon Member for Normanton “so what” or that it showed he was pretty normal.
I do wonder if Kevin MacGuire is actually a Tory in disguise - he seems to help the Conservative rather than hinder.
Today’s Telegragh (used to be the torygraph) ‘Obama slumps in polls amid furore over race speech’.
Same day. Jan and MS of pb.com continue to lay Hillary.
For sharp analysis, the Telegraph is dreadful. Only the BBC is worse?
61. i stopped reading the telegraph for political opinion ages ago, it has a great sports and news section though.
36: The Mirror really is obsessional about Cameron, going through his rubbish, stalking him, and videoing him all the time.
62 - the Telegraph is particularly good for foreign news and cricket. Do they still often have pictures of Liz Hurley?
64. she’s posh totty, so of course.
Cameron could be compared to Blair.
Like having a good meal the night before.
Then the day after deciding what to do with the leftovers, freeze it, re-heat it or throw it away.
It looks like we are going to re-heat it in the microwave,wo`nt initialy taste as good, but might be better than what we have left in the fridge.
The only other “quality” paper obsessed with pictures of totty is the Indy, especially with Maria Sharapova.
I can only hope that CCO will be sending out researchers to film the driving and cycling of all Daily Mirror journalists
Cameron breaks the law when cycling. Cameron smokes dope as a kid. Cameron gets up to high jinx at university that probably leads to criminal damage.
It is not that he continually struggles through his life with what some might consider minor infringements - although road safety is a much understimated part of the law, being one of the major causes of death and serious injury in this country. It’s that he makes speeches about how ‘decent families’ (’like mine’ - photos of kids, tributes to mother etc) lead to ‘decent folk’. But it doesn’t look to me like he is decent folk, just rich folk who think that the law shouldn’t apply to them in the same way as the rest of us.
TBH I have always found Cameron distinctly unpalatable so this merely feeds into my preconceptions. I hope that it does affect some people who have given him the benefit of the doubt before - because I think my gut feeling on this man is right. He is a self obsessed, self righteous prat, who never quite hides the fact that he thinks that the rich should get the pleasure and the poor should get the blame.
Anyway. Enough of this bile - I can smell a hot cross bun that might have my name on it - so happy Mardi Gras, Easter, Beltane, or whatever you are celbrating today to all of you.
69 “I can only hope that CCO will be sending out researchers to film the driving and cycling of all Daily Mirror journalists”
And of course, none of them ever dabbled in illegal substances in their past. How funny it would be if one were to get caught in a sting…
It is a bit muppety of Cameron, though. The car-following-on-behind story seriously undermined the message on green issues by making a mockery of his own credentials. Now this. Perhaps he should walk!
70 “Perhaps he should walk” - do you mean walk in the American ‘resign’ sense of the word - that would make my day.
3. “And for sure, let’s not forget John McCain.
Though he would surely wish that we would, leastways where he’s concerned. Because the big thing for him was not being able to tell Shite from Shinola.”
Can we please drop the myth that McCain can’t tell Sunnis from Sh’ites? You and I might disagree about the extent to which AQI and Iran are linked but claiming that the two have worked together is not the same as not knowing the difference between the two main branches of Islam.
61) The Telegraph is accurate though. Obama HAS been negatively impacted by Wright - dramatically so in some states. Have a look at SurveyUSA’s recent polls, some of them fresh last night.
re 69. Have you ever driven a car at 31mph or more in an urban area/ Have you ever exceeded 70 mph on a motorway; have you ever parked illegally if only for a few seconds?
Cyclists break the law all the time - so do other road users. The difference is that motor vehicles can kill and maim.
Another factor is that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service don’t take cyclists seriously. In Oxford in March 2001 I was knocked off my bike by a bus and it took me six months to recover. The file went to the CPS who decided to prosecute the driver.
When it got to court the case was dropped because the CPS had not got their act together.
69, A big percentage of cyclist don`t think traffic laws affect them, which p*sses off motorists.
This won`t damage Cameron one bit, shows he is like most people who break minor traffic laws.
On the other hand if it was a Labour cabinet minister they would be hung by the media.
70 - with Radio 5 dedicating part of this morning’s phone in to the story we should presumably see another point or two on the Conservative poll ratings as he’s in the public eye again.
Can Gordon Brown even ride a bike? Although the thought of him in luminous snot-green Lycra shorts….let’s not go there.
re 75. So you never speed Dez - honestly? Come on - don’t give me that crap.
75 - what annoys me about cyclists, is the self righteousness we sometimes get from them.
Drivers can be very inconsiderate I know, but responsible pedestrians are often posed more dangers by cyclists than by drivers.
69 - Paul, haven’t heard from you for a while, but what on earth has happened to turn you from jolly LibDem jester (in person), to such a sanctimonious prig in print this morning?
79 - Spot on!
61 and 73.
Gallup has a poll with Clinto 5% ahead of Obama, but as CNN reported last night it was conducted before the Obama speech.
The evidence from Rasmussen daily tracking poll is that Obama has recovered since the speech and yesterday was 3% ahead.
Think the total scenario needs to be balanced out.
[43] No, Mike, it isn’t safe to cycle the wrong way down a one-way street. Pedestrians will only look the way they expect the traffic to come before they cross… knock down a child who runs into the road and see how much sympathy you get afterwards…
75,
Mike I am not giving you crap cause I do.
But you know York the local paper is filled with motorists complaining about cyclists and visa versa.
Think you have read what I said wrongly.
Some motorists belief cyclists pay know tax or insurance and take no responsibility, just read the local papers especially in York.
Thats not my opinion, but it is one that is felt quite strongly by many.
I cycle drive and walk in york mainly walking its quicker.
72 - I feel pretty confident that h is categorically wrong about AQI being supported by Iran, but I accept your basic point. McCain does know the difference, I’m sure, and this was comparable to Obama’s misspoken mention of the ‘President of Canada’ (instead of PM) but for two modest points:
a) Small ‘I misspoke’ mistakes are more serious when about Iraq, and when they muddy the line between what we know to be true and what we would like to be. There has been too much lying about Iraq (even if we agree with the war) for people to be let off lightly when they ‘misspeak’ about intelligence (benefit of the doubt accorded).
b) When Obama misspeaks (not often), it comes across as a guy who misspoke. When McCain does, you start to hear mention of ‘Senior Moments’. He can’t afford many of these.
For the record, I think Richardson endorsing Obama, and Pelosi repeating that SDs should support based on most pledged delegates is indicative that the scales are tipping his way. If Pastorgate just gave him that speech, and that speech gave him Richardson, it was worth it. Setting your hair on fire and dancing the Merengue in a straight-jacket might not be a comfortable experience, but if it starves your opponent of media coverage, it becomes harder for her to gain momentum. Come November, we will see that speech as the turning point in the Democratic primaries, IMHO.
In my student days I was a very irresponsible cyclist. Often did not signal, no lights, when drunk, on pedestrian areas, while carrying books under one arm, jumping red lights… but it was seen as acceptable. It should not be acceptable. It is dangerous to the cyclist and to other cyclists and pedestrians.
84 Driving in York is a nightmare - worse than London. The city’s roads were designed for a few hundred horses and the odd Roman chariot. Walking is the only sensible way to get around.
Cyclists may dislike drivers for their reckless indifference, but as a pedestrian (living with a *committed* cyclist) we often see in cyclists what cyclists see in drivers.
I thought all cyclists ride on the pavement these days , certainly in Brighton they ignore the dozens of 2 feet long cycling lanes .
Where were the Tory Trolls you yelled over the Vassall and Havering by-elections. This one was in bed, but I am around now so here goes…
A clear example of anti-Labour tactical voting [AOBL] and a sign of things to come.:-)
As one-time keen cyclist, I’m fully in favour of clamping down on red-light jumpers, who are not only a menace but if they want to be taken seriously as road-users should obey the rules like others do.
But to call cyclists irresponsible and newsworthy for e.g. cutting a corner when there is clearly no traffic coming is just hyperbole - as someone who has had a fairly serious car accident this week I appreciate that I have far more potential to injure pedestrians in that than I do on two wheels.
A new survey has revealed that the majority of Britons would rather David and Victoria Beckham lead the country than Gordon Brown.
Current TV commissioned a survey to question more than 2,000 people on Britishness, and the results showed that the Beckhams were a more acceptable choice of Downing Street residents than Gordon Brown.
Jade Goody topped the list to find the worst people to run the country with 23%, while Amy Winehouse (16%) and Kerry Katona (14%) ranked second and third. Prime Minister Gordon Brown (11%) was fourth in the list.
Peter Andre and Katie Price received 9% of the votes while 6% felt the Beckhams would be the worst leaders of the UK.
The survey also revealed that 25% of Brits would rather watch the Hollyoaks omnibus on Sundays than carry out traditional past-times such as playing board games and eating afternoon tea.
87. I agree, the city centre loop includes a U-turn!
Haven’t seen the news this am but I see from the posts that despite a banking crisis which could have brought down one of GB’s biggest banks, small building societies withdrawing all mortgage offers, a possible recession, stock market tremors, record fuel prices, a possible equiry into a devastating and potentially illegal war, Tibet/China……the big news is Cameron and his cycling habits.
How desperate?
re 87. Having lived and worked in York for a couple of years there is little doubt that it is the best place in the UK for cycling. A good network of cycle routes and special traffic lights and there is no excuse for any cyclist to disobey the law - except on the number 4 bus route. This uses Ken’s favourite form of transportation, the bendy-bus and is a complete nightmare for anybody on two wheels.
They need twice as much road space as normal buses and, of course, the driver cannot see what’s on his inside.
The Lib Dem council who actively promoted and financed this innovation got it completely wrong - just like Ken did. Rubbish thinking - rubbish outcome.
Mike. I am a cyclist as well, and personally I try to bear in mind that I am a road user as well. I do stop at traffic lights when on my bike, and I don’t go the wrong way down one-way roads. There has been growing recognition that cyclists have to have greater recognition of their road using - there have been a couple of high profile cases where pedestrians have been killed or seriously hurt by cyclists recently.
Furthermore, the driving offences you try to compare his with are not the same - i.e. driving 31 is a slight misjudgement of speed - jumping a red light is deliberately breaking a law of the road, and I don’t jump red lights in a car or on a bike, and I wouldn’t expect anyone else to. If you had said 40 in a 30 zone, I personally would happily see people get done, because it makes such a significant difference to the safety of residents. Jumping a red light puts himself and other road users in jeopardy - the likelihood is that if something went wrong he would be the one that suffers - but if a driver whose right of way it is, is forced to swerve and loses control, others could be seriously hurt or killed. It is, therefore, a serious issue and I think your post fails to address that.
93: It seems that the left leaning press are trying to inflate a non story to cover up the problems Brown is having. sadly for them they are getting the usual ’so what’ reaction from the public.
New Quinnipiac Presidentail Poll for New York State :
McCain 40% .. Clinton 50%
NcCain 38% .. Obama 49%
Excellent score for Obama in Hillary’s home state.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1161
rogue cyclists are a real menace…………over the past couple of weeks I’ve felt the full force of Maureen Colquhoun-led Lakes Parish Council!……….cyclists using the National Cycle Network route 37 through Ambleside……and co-existance with pedestrians. La Colquhoun even copied her call on me to resign from Cumbria County Council into Johnhealy And Hazel Blears! I trembled!
………but there will be an easy message that Cameron is a rougue ccyclist: Cameron is a Conservative (of sorts): all rogue cysclists are Conservatives: all Conservatives are rogue cyclists. Something to Focus upon!
Sally C. You make a good point - there are important issues in the world - but Cameron is campaigning to be our Prime Minister - and if his judgement is so bad that he cannot see that putting other road users at risk by the simple expedient of stopping at a red light, then I personally worry that he is not possessed of the good judgement needed for such a tough task.
following on from 98:
333 killed and seriously injured on Cumbria roads in 2007……none of which caused by cyclists.
96 “It seems that the left leaning press are trying to inflate a non story to cover up the problems Brown is having”
One could even say its a Good Friday for burying bad news.
I’ll get my coat……
97 “Excellent score for Obama in Hillary’s home state.”
But - but Jack - didn’t you read the Memo? Only Hillary can win the Big States in November!
60 MacGuire is like Balls. He doesn’t realise how slimey and smug and he is. Instead of having a serious ‘isn’t it terrible’ face, he positively glows talking about Tory mis-deeds.
http://www.georgianindex.net/horse_and_carriage/phaeton_stubbs.jpg
Jack W is 105.
79.”Drivers can be very inconsiderate I know, but responsible pedestrians are often posed more dangers by cyclists than by drivers.”
Years ago at the hospital I trained at we had a busy set of traffic lights just at the entrance, cyclists were regularly knocked off their bikes there because of amber gamblers. I think that cyclists take their lives in their hands in large cities, and it does not surprise me at all that they will break the law to avoid certain routes.
re 95. Turning left on a red light gets you out of the way of cars who are revving up behind you.
When I was in Oxford there was one junction - Banbury Road and Parks Road, where it was a danger for cyclists to stop for fear of what the dozens of what the other cyclists behind would do.
85. Richardson endorsing Obama is obviously a big deal, although even that shouldn’t be overhyped. After all, Richardson did a deal with Obama in Iowa so this wasn’t completely out the blue. Obama has definitely grabbed the news but that can (and is clearly in this case a double edged sword). Pelosi’s endorsement is not particularly influential. Her approval as majority leader is lower than George W’s and she is unpopular within her own party. She also has little or no formal power to force the delegates to vote for Obama.
In any case if Obama gets the nomination by virtue of barring Floida and Michigan from re-votes, and by dint of a lot of arm-twisiting from Howard Dean and Pelosi (two unpopular figures), it won’t be worth much. Getting praise from the New York Times and talking heads on TV might be grand but being Fifteen points behind in Missouri, Seven in Ohio and tied in MA might be too high a price to pay.
Wasn’t letting drivers turn left at a red light one of the policy initiatives announced by IDS when he was leader?
All this talk of cycling on a political website may give onlookers the mistaken impression that we are abit nerdish.
106 - I think Oxford in the 1980s pioneered “advanced cycle stops” whereby cyclists have their own box in front of the cars at a red light. Like outside the Kings Arms. I think it’s a shame there are not more of these.
109 - yes, let’s get back to parish council elections where 12 people voted.
74.”Another factor is that the police and the Crown Prosecution Service don’t take cyclists seriously. In Oxford in March 2001 I was knocked off my bike by a bus and it took me six months to recover. The file went to the CPS who decided to prosecute the driver.”
Friend of mine was knocked off his bike at night on a roundabout by the single car using it at the time, he was off work for a couple of months with his injuries. The driver claimed he never saw him and there were no witnesses. He was never prosecuted despite the fact that my friend’s bike, jacket and helmet were proved that he was very visable, we used to joke that he was better lit up than a Christmas tree.
The Dems have to finish the contest off soon, the one chance that the GOP have is that they let it linger on until the convention. If, by the end of May, they still show no signs of bringing it to an end, then I’d back McCain. The sheer unwillingness of the Dem hierarchy to do the logical thing could be their undoing.
Having said that Bill Richardson has just backed Obama. If Clinton couldn’t bag him she’ll never get Dean, Gore etc. The big guns have turned against her, and it looks as though Obama’s race speech was the tipping point for Richardson.
111. Good. Very cool.
Scottish Catholics gunning for Gordon:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7308224.stm
115.Mark the Catholic church in Scotland has been gunning for this Labour government for quite a while over a number of issues. This just the latest round.
116.Typing too fast. This *is* just the latest round.
My rambling thoughts on the Derek Conway saga,
I think the problem was the system was lax.
Conway had been warned when dipping in the till to make sure he closed the drawer afterwards - that way the notes wouldn’t blow all round the shop when the next MP came along.
Basic lack on consideration for fellow MPs.
There’s nothing worse than seeing someone you voted for grubbing around on the floor for fivers.
Neil Hamilton had the decency to insist on brown envelopes - now there was a class act.
“Moreover, as Professor John Curtice, of Strathcylde University, has noted: “Every postwar opposition that won the next election secured 50 per cent in the polls at some point. Mr Cameron is a long way from that target.”
- Is the learned Professor so ignorant that he is unaware of the radical changes to Polling methodology since 1992 then
116 But Gordon’s insistence on having a whipped vote on the embryo issue was always going to upset them further - and so has to be viewed as very poor political judgment by him. All very strange.
New thread - Sean Fear’s slot will go up in five minutes
John O. I missed your post earlier. I hope I am still a jolly jester usually. But I have a blind spot when it comes to road safety. Roads kill and maim people daily - and I know that roads can never be made 100% safe, but they would be made a great deal safer if people were less selfish on them.
Mike. You still haven’t answered properly. Getting road laws right is hard, and some layouts or codes could be made more logical. But ultimately a red light is an order not a guideline. When in charge of a vehicle, if you do not follow the orders, then it makes it immeasurably harder for other road users to predict what you are going to do - anticipation of other road users is 95% of road safety. If Cameron got knocked off his bike at the red light and hurt badly or killed it would be sad for his friends and family, but he would largely have himself to blame. If someone else had been killed or injured he would have been legally culpable of driving without due care and attention.
The argument that cars are more responsible for deaths and injuries is right to a point. Without doubt they are bigger and faster vehicles, and therefore generally more dangerous. But cycles remain a vehicle subject to the rules and laws of the road, and merely by choosing that particular mode of transport does not automatically make you morally superior nor entitled to greater leeway in being responsible for other road users’ safety. Sorry, but your argument does not hold water.
119.I asked queried Professor John Curtice’s comments a couple of nights ago when the other *discussion* on that thread had drifted to an end…..
120.Mark, I have been amazed over the last 10 years at just how political the Catholic church in Scotland has become, much more so than anywhere else in the UK.
122.”But cycles remain a vehicle subject to the rules and laws of the road, and merely by choosing that particular mode of transport does not automatically make you morally superior nor entitled to greater leeway in being responsible for other road users’ safety. Sorry, but your argument does not hold water.”
In most cities I would guess that there are some real black spots for cyclists, I bet even the most sensible and law abiding person on a bike makes a judgement call at these spots for their own safety.
Sorry Chris. You are acting as an apologist. Cameron did not ride responsibly when he went the wrong way up a one way street (shortcut, nothing to do with blackspots) or jumped a red light (took advantage of a bike’s nimbleness to save time - not blackspots), or cut the corner - again nothing to do with safety.
Throw the book at the prat is what I say. He is always playing the holier than thou card, and yet he can’t even be bothered to obey the rules of the road. Don’t be a political apologist Chris.
94
Basingstoke’s got a very good cycle route network too.
Various posts.
Very much agree that all cyclists should obey the laws of the road; cycling on the pavement is the one that annoys me (seems to be very common in Reading).
125.Paul, I did not mention Cameron, in fact I have just read the BBC report on the Daily Mirror story *after* I posted my earlier comments. I was talking about cyclists in general, you on the other hand seem to dislike Mr Cameron so much that it is clouding your judgement on this.
I was not defending him, but rather cyclists. The fact that I don’t drive and rely on my bike has more relevance to my opinion. So chill out and stop looking for a Tory defence angle under every comment a Conservative leaning poster makes.
127: OK, a general reply then. There is a majority of sensible cyclists who follow the rules except in emergency (safety comes first, obviously), and a minority who think it’s cool to jump lights and whizz past scared pedestrians from unexpected directions. The minority damage the reputation of the majority. It’s silly to dispute it.
128.”a minority who think it’s cool to jump lights and whizz past scared pedestrians from unexpected directions. The minority damage the reputation of the majority. It’s silly to dispute it.”
Nick, read my comments again.
107
Dear boy, I’d hate to place my bets based on your view of events. One should keep a slightly open mind when looking at things that one obviously has no feel for.
Pelosi will formerly chair the Denver Convention, and as the first female Speaker of the House she speaks as an historical figure in US politics and her sway with certain super-delegates [particularly ambitious House members] will be significant.
Governor Richardson has effectively given Hispanics permission to vote for Barack Obama, and this will show up in polls in the next couple of weeks.
As for poor old McCain, even my closest Republican friends have decided to throw him under the bus. God, he’s even older than me; and his senior moments are going to mark his campaign.
Every day Obama gets a day closer to maturity, and every day McCain moves a day closer to his dotage.
Malcolm
130
“Governor Richardson has effectively given Hispanics permission to vote for Barack Obama,”
That’s one of the weirdest comments I’ve seen on any political website.