What will Cameron go for tomorrow?
March 25th, 2008
Where’s the value in Ladbroke’s new market?
Ladbrokes are sticking with the innovative new betting market on what Cameron’s first question will be at PMQs tomorrow. Reproduced above are the latest prices.
My favourites are something to do with the London Mayoral election or a follow-up to Brown U-turn on the embryo bill free vote.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Transport would cover a question about Cycle lanes I guess.
I think the NUT Conference will give the Tories something to tease the Government with - it usually does!
Cameron got a fair amount of criticism for not mentioning the economy last week so he might want to make up for that this time. Otherwise another stab at the embryo bill seems likely. Cameron’s two objectives seem to be to portray Brown as a ditherer and a delayer. Seeing as we got the dithering angle last week it would make sense for him to push the delayer angle this week.
1- Yes, I’ll offer odds of 1 million to 1 that Cameron starts with “What are the government plans to deal with cyclists who break traffic laws? These people are a menance to drivers and pedestrians alike, stop dithering and get on with it! Oh and also, how is the economy going?”
I think Embryology Bill is a value bet, covered by Cameron picking on the NUT’s attack on faith schools (loved by the middle classes) so Education - he won’t bring up both for fear of looking too much like a Christian Democrat.
Agree Transport is unlikely, unless to bait Brown into mentioning Cameron’s cycling law-breaking, and then hit back with some barb about taking car from Downing St/motorcade skips red lights = gvt arrogance etc.
Post Offices might merit a mention, since Labour MPs embarrassed themselves after John Hutton forced their hands - I’d put it down the list, but chronologically trailing through the government’s worst moments of the week to create narrative might see a question asked early on the closures.
I don’t think he’ll ask about London Mayor - there is a little surprise that Boris is doing so well, and I’m not sure he will want to interfere if not needed. Once Boris wins, you will hear plenty, but not too much before I don’t think.
4 - Although being able to laugh at himself and yet get a question across might defuse the issue and come across rather well. It would counteract the pious face he sometimes pulls at PMQs.
If you hadn’t been so specific about the verbatim, I’d take that 1,000,000/1 bet on …
I reckon he’ll go on the economy/inflation to follow up on his real cost of living message and given the cbi has again given a lower growth forecast than the government and expects inflation to hit 3.2% by next year. Id expect him to link it to the embryo free vote issue (not free votes in the traditional sense), painting gordon as an underhand politian trying to con the public into believing he is trustworthy and open.
I got Tibet right last week (on the record only - not on a betting slip). I reckon this week, it will be something to nail Brown with in the leaflets for the locals - so I would think Post Offices stands a fair chance.
7 Economy and Inflation will definitely be there - maybe even three questions, but will he maybe deal with that in his second triplet?
An insider could easily make a few bob on this bet.
re 5 faith schools are completely inquitous. In this day and age churches, denominations and sects should have absolutely no business in running churches.
I think its a tough one to call this week. I didnt bet last week but suspected China would be first. It’s less clear this week, so unless there is something over night that happens then i doubt much will occur.
one thing that has gone on is yesterday Cameron did a piece on cost of living under labour > http://tinyurl.com/ytfeb9 so I expect that the economy/stock market would be the likeliest candidate if giving the worst odds
Another is as Sarkozy is coming across and has promised 1000 troops for afghanistan something along the lines of what promises PM has had to get troops from other European partners to help in Afghanistan (a good way of buttering up Sarko, and putting boot in to other European partners)
In this day and age churches, denominations and sects should have absolutely no business in running churches.
Really?
Sean and others who were discussing the Liverpool City Council elections might be interested in this piece from the Daily Post today..
http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/liverpool-news/regional-news/2008/03/25/election-08-labour-ready-to-seize-back-control-of-liverpool-64375-20668529/
14 Boris gets London, Labour gets Liverpool - has a certain symmetry about it!
ps if Cameron is really clever and doesnt have anything to explosive, he’d ignore the appeal against the FOI ruling requiring him to release his expenses details and do so tomorrow morning just minutes before PMQs. This would could really hurt brown as again it would paint cameron as open and trustworthy and brown as closed and untrustworthy. I mean how could brown defend himself against a question by cameron along the lines of ”Today I have complied with the FOI act ruling which required myself and you to publish details of our expenses. The public want to know, why doesnt the PM comply with the very act his government brought in and let them. what is it he is hiding from them?
14 I think the LibDems will just hang on this year , in some ways this is a pity as there chances oF gaining Labour seats at the next GE in Liverpool would be enhanced greatly by Labour being in control of the council .
17 oops their not there
Is there a ‘none of the above’ option?
19. Others On Request, Baskerville. Happy to add any plausible suggestions.
He could ask about the PM’s engagements for Wednesday night, given Brown’s attendance at football matches has coincided with defeats for England, Manchester United and other home teams.
14/17 - given the state of Labour at the moment and the likelihood of losses elsewhere - the fact that they are talking up their prospects in Liverpool suggests a degree of confidence in the Labour camp.
I think Labour ought to do enough to deprive the Lib Dems of overall control, a Lib Dem hold would suggets a very bad night for Labour.
14. Thanks. I bow to superior local knowledge, but I’d expect the Lib Dems to retain be on about 46 out of 90, after May 1st.
Would a question about MPs’ expenses count as Constitutional?
22. Does it matter which brand of socialists presides over Britain’s most down and out city?
I think education has to be worth a shout. A bunch of NUTters have a conference and a Tory education policy is released in the same week.
24. Expenses would come under Constitutional/Parliamentary Issues.
26. he doesn’t do education….not since grammargate
24 - Given it is “constitutional/parliamentary issues” in the betting, I would say it must do. But I can’t see it as Brown would carp on about Conway. By far the best Tory strategy on MPs’ expenses is to be quiet and co-operative. I think economy is justified favourite but Post Offices is a good outside bet.
re 13 I did mean schools!
I took 6/1 price that he will ask about the embryo bill. I think Cameron won’t be able to resist a bit of gloating now that Brown has allowed Labour MPs a free vote, as Cameron has been asking Brown about this for weeks now. You never know, Cameron might congratulate Brown two weeks in a row (though I won’t be betting on that).
5. Are they really loved by the middle classes? I know plenty of middle class people who bemoan the fact they have to take their 9-year-old to church every Sunday for two years to get them into a decent school that discriminates by religion in their entrance requirements.
Regards the debate about churches “whipping” their MPs the other day, I’ve looked into precisely what both the Catholic and Anglican churches have said about the issue and I’ve come to the conclusion I was wrong. They were very much saying “Anglican/Catholic MPs would want to vote by their own consciences so we need a free vote” rather than “Anglican/Catholic MPs better vote this way, and the Labour Party better not stop them”. Thus they limited their role to pluralist debate and not coercion (unlike the Catholic church in Italy) so tip of the hat to them.
30. I don’t see what’s wrong with religious groups running schools, as long as they don’t discriminate on grounds of religious belief and don’t try to convert children of other faiths.
31, could be an opportunity for Cameron to patronise Brown in a backhanded congratulatory fashion: “Well done, you worked it out eventually” sort of thing. He could then say something along the lines of “This is our position on X, and in three weeks you’ll have decided it’s your position too”.
33. But that can be their only purpose! If they were not allowed to do these things, why would they bother setting up schools at all?
35. Well on that reasoning presumably they should be stopped from engaging in other charitable activity as well.
Ming campbell makes political comeback:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/08/sci_nat_enl_1206040282/html/1.stm
34. I didn’t say they should be stopped, did I? Merely that their motives should be transparent.
11 I think that is entirely reasonable for religious organisations to provide social services, so long as they’re competent.
35. Maybe the noble goal if wishing to improve children’s education?
Sorry; that was a reply to hoarse whisperer at 36.
My mum was a teacher (early retirement) but a member of the NASUWT, most of her friends who still work in the profession say that pupil numbers are steadily climbing, and that teaching assistants are mostly useless and no help in teaching lessons. They also think that a 10% pay rise is too high.
35 why would they bother setting up schools at all?”
To educate people?
39. I actually agree, but, out of interest, how would you feel about non-religious belief groups setting up schools. Like Objectivists? Or socialists?
My view would be the same. They should be entitled to establish such schools, provided they’re sufficiently competent. Curiously enough, I went to a school, UCS, that was founded by Jeremy Bentham, with the express intention that it should be non-religious.
43. Yes, but define your terms (viz. educate). “Show me the boy at 7 and I will show you the man” as I believe Catholic educators have it.
Not a single penny of taxpayers money should go towards teaching religion or funding of religous schools. Why should ‘mainstream’ religions get money for schools, and, for example, Scientology not be given same?
44. Let them go ahead and see how many pupils they attract.
Socialists already control most secondary schools, as the lunacy emanating from the NUT conference shows.
32 - Credit to you for revising your view so publically - the Italians tolerate a lot more interference from the Italian RC Church, which tends to be equally clumsy and yet more mean-spirited. The Bishops of England and Wales may be ineffectual lightweights with the political nouse of a hedgehog-saving society, but cynical damnators of the souls of men they are not!!
I think the Middle classes do love faith schools - they complain (so you can hear) about having to attend a church weekly for a few years (”what a sacrifice we’ve made for Charlotte and Quentin”) but compared to the fees and middle-class-guilt they’d have to endure if they sent them to actual private schools … no contest.
Faith schools tend to do better academically, have better extra curricular (even when they lack better facilities), and often have a vibrant culture that draws in parents and siblings. This is not necessarily because they are faith schools - often it is that faith schools have attracted good students from reasonably well-off families, and it has snowballed into being the best way to educate your kids without a second income, so more middle-class parents send kids there, so it becomes more middle class (lots of wealthy, educated parents who ‘care’ so do school fetes etc).
It was wrong and hypocritical of the NUT to accuse faith schools of seeking to ’select’ better/richer/cleverer pupils - they are self-selecting, as their parents are the ones who are prepared to go to those lengths to make sure their kids don’t go to ‘bog standard comprehensives’. Poorer, less-educated parents don’t jump through even the hoops that are reasonable (ie having the faith of the school as your own).
The Labour plans to make sure faith schools took in some pupils not of that faith were nothing to do with protecting us from madrasses - that was New Labour realising how popular it would be to the Middle Classes if they could get their kids in ‘without even having to feign faith’.
aren’t scientologists barking mad?
Afghanistan/iraq at 16-1 looks good value.
The question he won’t ask is: “Why isn’t the government launching a campaign to make cyclists wear helmets?”
47. Because Scientology is a destructive cult that exploits its own members and attempts to destroy its critics by any means necessary?
46 Well, they got that one wrong.
47 The taxpayer gets the better of the deal as most religious schools were built by religious believers at their own expense, and the churches contribute towards the running costs.
If I didn’t have better things to do with my life I should like to set up a state-funded Jedi school.
47. Because Scientology is a destructive cult that exploits its own members and attempts to destroy its critics by any means necessary?
John Travolta has done ok since he signed up..
51. Because cyclists should be allowed to decide for themselves what their risk/discomfort ratio should be, as long as it doesn’t threaten others?
50
Yes possibly they are mad, however they do not, unlike the catholic church have a history or raping children and then having to pay out billions of $ in damages. If it were my child I would choose the Thetons over the rapists any day. Sorry if this offends but there it is.
http://www.bishop-accountability.org/
54, hey, the Jedi are important. We’re the 3rd or 4th biggest religious group in the UK. I think it’d be great if we had Jedi schools:p
55. I’m sure the celebrities the organisation uses for merchandising purposes do just fine out of it. It’s the psychologically vulnerable John Doe’s that I fear for.
Religious schools tend to do well I suspect vbecause there is a type of self reinforcing feeedback system: parents have to have well behaved children to enter so they train children to behave which tend sto remove the mindless idiots who briong children to school unable to use knoives and forks and/or not toilet trained.
The NUT have to deal with the untrained and I can understand hwy they get upset about it. Unfortunateley they are levellers down .
Interesting. Most stock exchanges are doing very well, but the Dow’s now down 40, whereas it had been hundreds up.
54 - “If I didn’t have better things to do with my life I should like to set up a state-funded Jedi school.”
Parents would complain endlessly about the cost of uniforms, and that’s before you ask them if they would donate to the cost of intergalactic trips.
50, 52. Expect a writ from said Scientologists any time from now!
57 Paedophiles are attracted towards any occupation in which they can come into contact with children. That is as true of secular organisations as religious ones.
53. This ‘faith schools - false church attendance’ story is really one which is limited to a few urban areas where state education is especially poor.
Most ‘faith schools’ in the UK are CofE primary schools ste up by the church long ago when it was the major provider of elementary education. The great majority of them don’t impose any religious tests on prospective parents, and certainly don’t engage in indoctrination (indeed, the idea of Anglican ‘indoctrination’ is risible).
Lumping them in with madrassas and the like is absurd.
57. While not wanting to downplay the abuse, it was carried out by individual priests. The crime wasn’t institutionalised, unlike the abuses by the Church of Scientology, although admittedly the cover-ups were.
61 - When will people understand that stock exchanges open at different times of day due to time differences?!? The figures for the Dow rally were from Easter Monday’s trading (not a holiday in the US). The Far East then European markets responded to that. There is some fairly light profit taking right now in New York but nothing like enough to reverse earlier gains or seriously dent gains in Europe.
57
The cover ups were as bad as the crimes as this allowed the rapists to go on to do more rapes.
Sorry to get back to buggery which is becoming like the blue whale joke on QI (tv show) on this board.
ps.
Alan Davis is not at all funny.
65 As well as my secular secondary school, I attended a C of E primary school that was built by William Wilberforce, at his expense. While there was certainly a religious ethos to the school, I certainly don’t remember much in the way of actual preaching.
65. Well the non-feepaying religious school I went on certainly insisted we went to chapel for religious services several times a week, and you would get detention if you didn’t go.
65 - I think it’s a lot more widespread than you might recognise, and what winds me up is that the ‘bad schools’ they are rescuing their child from are perfectly decent, and with the support of more parents who cared could be even better.
Don’t know about CoE setting religious tests or not, but the RCC generally does need references from Parish Priest. You and I both know that there is nothing in common between British religious schools and madrassas, which is why the aborted gvt bill to ‘open up’ faith schools was such a ridiculous idea, and so easy to see through that. It is a mark of how poorly the gvt handled it that they lost to Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O’Connor.
68. What about all the abuse carried out in state-run care homes, hospitals, and the like - does that mean the state is not fit to run any institutions?
Obama now only 10% down in Pennsylvania - was 13% last month
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary
I’d suggest Hillary has to win by significantly more than this to be able to stay in the race.
64 - Then people wonder why there are so few male teachers in primary schools and, therefore, so few male role models for boys.
63. I have some hemlock in my back pocket just in case!
74 Sad, but true.
73. I predict the polls in Pennsylvania are underestimating Clinton. I think pastorgate has hurt Obama there.
71. You ‘think it’s a lot more widespread than [I] might recognise’…but also you ‘Don’t know about CoE setting religious tests or not’.
It appears you are getting a bit confused here. Perhaps this reflects an insistence on treating what is essentially a practical issue as an ideological one, or are you just shooting from the hip?
72
No the state is the preffered provider however the catholic church because of it’s vow of celibacy is a pedo magnet.
Read this.
http://www.bishop-accountability.org/news2008/03_04/2008_03_25_Gutowski_PedophilePriests.htm
‘In last week’s trial, Lenczycki offered somewhat of an answer to his victims. Mental health experts testified he was confused about his sexuality back then and thought he’d break his vow of celibacy if he had sex with a woman. The priest had told them he didn’t think he was harming the boys.’
67, whoops. I feel like a bit of a fool now. Sorry about that.
72 - At the moment, it would seem the State is not fit to run a chain of whelk stalls…
EDW raises a fair point - whilst the abuse of children was not systematic in the RCC, the culture of silence and protection was systematic in places. There were several members of the Church hierarchy who were either complacent or complicit in child abuse cases, and there needed to be a ‘purge of such filth’ - I think the Church has been forced to grow up and take accountability for its actions, and hopefully this will prevent anything similar happening again.
However, I do not find this a compelling reason that as an institution, it cannot run schools or adoption agencies per se. In both cases, RC institutions are at the top of their field, and there would be no good reason to stop that because of abuse in another part of the country by people they didn’t know. There is room for plenty of the worst apples in any group of people over a billion strong.
79 He could just have been casting round for an excuse. It would have to be a very stupid priest, IMHO, who thought he wasn’t breaking a vow of celibacy by molesting a boy.
I think that compulsory celibacy does mean that a fair number of people who would be successful, as Catholic clergy, decide against it, so it probably reduces the talent pool.
25 Hoarse whisperer “Britain’s most down and out city”
Have you been to Liverpool recently ? The city centre is being massively transformed, both with the Kings Waterfront Arena/ Conference Centre etc and particularly the enormous Liverpool One retail and leisure development, which will have the largest John Lewis outside London.
78 - No inconsistency or confusion - by ‘more widespread than you might think’ I was referring to both a large number of people I went to school/rugby with whose parents did just this, and to the large numbers of people I’ve been to Church with who are rarely seen once their children are of university age. Anecdotal, but I don’t think it is a couple of isolated instances blown out of all proportion (which is how I read you at 64, though I may have misread - if so, apologise).
As for not knowing about CoE - it’s true. My entire experience of this has been through Catholic schools and parishes, so I really couldn’t comment on that side of the fence - I was trying to be clear that my views were only valid (if at all) in reference to RC education.
Don’t think I’m being ideological - not normally my vice when commenting on here. If so, it is more at my frustration with the parents who care abandoning the State sector, when it isn’t that bad, and thus ruining the chances of those Comprehensives ever becoming as good as the faith schools. That does irk me, I admit.
I am much more frequently guilty of shooting from the hip!
83. whoopee - now have a careful look at the stats on unemployment, economic inactivity, life expectancy, chronic illness, crime, social deprivation, teenage pregnancy, domestic violence etc.
A few shiny new shops won’t change any of that I’m afraid.
27 Thanks Shadsy. I have had my flutter accordingly.
So Liverpool will have the largest John Lewis outside London. (83). How many MPs have they got in Liverpool for heaven’s sake?
As a fairly recently retired teacher, I thought my teaching assistants were absolutely brilliant. Being on short contracts to start with, the useless ones are soon weeded out. Then they tend to remain in one school, get to know the generations of pupils far better than the teachers, tend to have sent their children to local schools, tend not to have been indoctrinated by latest educational fashions, have a robust attitude to discipline yet genuinely sympathetic to deserving cases.
87 LOL!
Inflation and the embryo fiasco would be my best. Possibly the NUT’s outrageous smears against the army might feature if he think he’s raised the embryo bill enough.
83
Liverpool has been undergoing ‘transformation, regen etc.’ since Tarzan went up there in the 80’s. Didn’t they have some stupid flower show that closed and never reopened?
91. Quite. ‘Regeneration’ must be the most misused word in the language now. It was never meant to mean bread and circuses, hype, or egregious waste of public money.
92. I know people who work in construction and they assure me that regeneration of housing estates makes very real changes in crime rates.
93
I suggest you watch the ever brilliant Jon’ Meades.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDcjpoMgpe4
Probably the only thing worth watching on all of uk tv.
57 That is as offensive as saying “Homosexuals have a history of raping children”
Note to self:
EDW offensive scumbag. hoarse whisperer good points delivered effectively.
There’s probably no more religious country than the US and there are no religious schools there in the maintained sector. France also seems to manage without them.
96. I’m not sure I feel flattered…
85, 92
The main developments are privately funded, by the Grosvenor Group (Duke of Westminster) and Peel Holdings. It is light years away in scope from Heseltine’s Garden festival back in 1984.
And as far as the crime statistics are concerned the latest home office figures showed the crime rate in Merseyside is above the national average but lower than that in Greater London, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, the West Midlands, Cleveland Humberside and Nottinghamshire. It is about the same level as Gwent in South Wales. 12 out of 25 London boroughs reporting have worse figures for car crime, and all of them except for Harrow, Barnet and Richmond had worse stats for violence against the person.
OT - US Presidential
This AM the Today Show (NBC) & the Morning Show CBS) featured the claim by Hillary Clinton that she braved sniper fire in Bosnia.
Despite her thrilling account, unfortunately for Sen. Clinton, the tesitiony of journalists and others who were on the same trip do not support her version of events. Nor does the TV footage that was taken at the time. Which shows her meeting with US soliders and being greeted by a small Bosnia girl, whom Hillary introduced to Chelsea. Strangely, no sign that anyone was dodging bullets or otherwise crouching for cover.
On Good Morning America (CBS) the feature bit was an interview by Diane Sawyer of James Carville, re: his “thirty pieces of silver” remark about Bill Richardon’s endorsement of Obama.
Apparently the Clinton Brain Trust has not yet figured out that Carville is neither appealing nor effective as a surrogate for Hillary Clinton. Exactly the opposite.
And in this instance, Carville’s remarks (clearly his own very special way of celebrating Easter) simply underline the hubris of the entire Clinton political operation. Which pigeonholed Richardson as a stalking horse for Hillary, with a clever campaign for winning her attention in order to become her VP.
Also, the Today Show made a big deal of pooh-poohing the Clintonista’s Electoral College gambit. By noting that its a lot of hooey. Clinton taking Texas? Obama losing California? Seems nobody who ain’t already on the payroll is drinking that kool-aid.
Yet it’s not exactly a day at the beach for Obmama - though actually it is, he’s enjoying a short vacation in the Virgin Islands. Reason I saw it’s not, is a wee thing called the Pennsylvania Primary.
Because while “the Speech” was a big hit with Bill Richardson and other superdelegate types, little sign so far anyhow that it did much for blue collar, rural, labor, non-college White Democrats.
Who are thick on the ground in places like Scranton, Erie and Beaver County.
97 Clearly untrue.
95
I made no mention of homosexuals. Wind your neck in if all you can do is throw insults.
As for ‘note to self’ I supsect you make a habit of doing things ‘to self’.
102 No you didnt. You said the Catholic Church has a history of Raping Children.
You point is as generalising, invalid and offensive as saying the same thing about Homosexuals, Scotsmen and Opticians.
You remain, an offensive fool. I suspect you dont have the courage to make such insults about other religions such as Islam.
101 Iran is more religious than the US for starters. India is even named after a religion.
100. Have you heard Clinton’s response to this sniper fire issue?
She said that in a presidential campaign you say lots of things and she must have “misspoke”!
It was a lengthy narrative about her plane being shot at and taking evasive manouvers, and then troops ushering them forth from the plane as they rushed to the terminal building, heads ducked down. Quite the misspeak!
104. It’s the most religious country in the developed world, though, which I imagine was his point.
100. I find James Carville’s accent rather grating. Where does he come from SSI?
He also has a strange shaped head.
105
Yes, they are calling this ’snipergate’ natch.
103
Okay, you win, now stop stalking me please.
Michael Martin this afternoon launched a legal bid to block an order to reveal details of senior MPs’ expenses.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23464308-details/MPs+in+court+fight+to+keep+expenses+secret/article.do
107 Carville is from rural Louisiana. - (Hence he is known as the Ragin cajun)
Cameron just uploaded this onto youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ter8T5B8ojI
Could be a good bet for the first question. Not quite sure if it would fit into parliamentary/constitutional, but if it does then 33/1 sounds pretty good to me.
109 That man is a complete disgrace! This is political ineptitude of the highest order. Doesn’t he realise which century we are living in? This Court Case is going to do a lot more damage to the reputation of the Hoiuse of Commons than discovering how much Ming Campbell spends on curtains, or whatever.
112
A muppet has to do what a muppet has to do.
Reportedly a new poll coming out later today that shows Obama with a 21% lead in North Carolina.
107 Carville is from Donaldsonville, Louisiana, in Accension Parish. Which is one of the “River Parishes” between New Orleans & Baton Rouge.
This area is a mix of Creole and Cajun, Black and White, rural (sugar cane) and industrial (refineries). Carville’s accent reflects this gumbo stew. Has some similarity for example with that of Edwin Edwards, though the accent of the “Silver Fox” is more velvet and less sandpaper.
112
Yes it’s a no win job.
1. Court case fails, he looks like a loser who wasted public money on legal costs.
2. Court case suceeds, he looks like a cover up merchant
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 48% .. Clinton 43%
McCain 50% .. Obama 41%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 43%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
109/112 - In all fairness to Martin, the article blames him personally for the decision of the all-party Commons Commission he chairs. Currently, the members are Martin, Harriet Harman (Lab), Theresa May (Con), David McLean (Con), Stuart Bell (Lab) and Nick Harvey (LD). To be honest, I have no time for any of them and think all six wrongly see themselves as some sort of MPs’ trade union.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
NcCain 46% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 45% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 45% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Remain-Nearly-Tied.aspx
118 Yes, they are all rather “Grand”, aren’t they? With the possible exception of Teresa May.
110. I thought he was a Georgian?
I cannot think of one speaker who has damaged the House of Commons quite like Martin. That said all members of the Commons Commission should also be ashamed. Doesn’t surprise me when some of the members include the radient Harperson and Mr “let’s make MPs exempt from the FOI Act” McLean.
New PPP Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 34% .. Obama 55%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_032508.pdf
New poll from North Carolina puts Obama on 55% to HRC on 34%. The survey is by Public Policy Polling and is the biggest margin so far.
http://tinyurl.com/yw9t35
On the Dem race it is clear to me that Clinton cannot win bar a big swing in her favour i.e. a 20 point win in PA, a 10 point win in IN and a marginal win in NC. This is still just about possible but the chances are certainly under 15%. The Morus 9/1 sounds about right.
The reason for this is the failure of the FL and MI do-overs. They offered her the opportunity to overtake Obama in the PV. Without that she has no chance barring a huge Obama collapse. Obama had a bad week with pastor-gate but he doesn’t seem to have suffered much damaged.
In terms of chronology, and when Clinton drops out, she faces a series of do-or-die moments. PA - she needs at least a ten-point win to stay in the race. IN and NC - she needs to win both. However it is possible that she decides to stay in regardless until June 3rd. At that point she will have to drop out if behind in the PV, again unless Obama collapses.
It will be interesting to see if a Wilder effect emerges after pastor-gate in that whites will vote against Obama because of his race but not want to be public about it. I was skeptical about it before as Obama has more often than not outperformed the polls but is something to watch out for. If it is going to happen it will be in PA.
On schools. The problem in principle I have with faith schools is simple. It puts children in an environment where they are given the message that one religion is better than another, there is also an issue of segregation but I accept that is not a major issue except in NI. Parents are of course free to teach their children what they want (within reason) at home but school (certainly publicly funded) should be a space for children to explore all religious views and none and give them a chance to think about it independently and understand others. Some faith schools do this well and sensitively, but however well intentioned they are biased towards their denomination. However it is not a serious enough problem to warrant any government acting given the large numbers of faith schools and their history. But that means you have other religions claiming their right to have schools too.
The biggest problem with faith schools is social selection, as already highlighted, but this is endemic in the state sector. Middle-class parents are concerned to get their children into ‘good’ schools, perfectly understandably. Yet this is often more a desire to stop their children mixing with the wrong sort. However this results in social segregation - and the development of ‘good’ schools and ’sink’ schools, which perpetuates a vicious cycle almost impossible to get out of. That is why middle-class parents kicked up such a fuss about the lottery system in Brighton. The education system reflects society. Yes there are good schools and bad schools but some of these labels result from the different challenges they face. Thats why education as the total solution to inequality/deprivation is flawed. Changing this state of affairs is extremely difficult politically because of the power of middle class parents. That is why I have sympathy with the Academy programme despite ideological issues with it because it will hopefully help break the cycle of failure and encourage middle-class parents back, making the schools more socially balanced.
124. Wow it looks like we are seeing the beginnings of Teflon Obama. If he can get that kind of margin after the last week then anything is possible.
125
“the Academy programme despite ideological issues with it because it will hopefully help break the cycle of failure ”
If parents do not bring their children up knowing some basics of life and some social skills, the Academy program will fail.
126 - That is a huge jump from their last poll. His lead has gone from 1 to 21 points in a week, before that it was in the high single digits. I would suggest there is an outlier in there somewhere, and perhaps two. It seems implausible that such a big change would happen only in one state, but very good news for Obama nonetheless in a state the media are already putting pressure on Clinton to do well in.
126. Remember North Carolina is more than 20% black, and consider what the scandal of last week was actually about.
125. There’s no way in hell Clinton will win by ten points in Indiana.
124 Mike S. Two minutes is a long time on PB !!
Meanwhile there’s life in some old dogs yet !!
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/mar/25/93-year-old-charged-sex-sting/
Jack W is 105.
I don’t share your fatalistic attitude that what will be will be and the state should not care if some children don’t have a chance to reach their potential. The family environment is crucial, all the research shows that but if a child has a difficult home environment they should at least have a different school one. That gives them more chance of breaking out of their circumstances and making a decent life for themselves. These children would benefit from being around kids that value learning and have aspirations, rather than simply being around children as deprived as themselves. For those who say the comprehensive ideal has failed - we have never had a proper comprehensive system to know that.
126. Oh the despair and gnashing of teeth that will come when he fails spectacularly in November…
125 - Exactly - the social mix and equality of opportunity have to be key.
I went to a pretty useless Catholic comp, and whilst I get sick of people pretending that State education is somehow value-neutral and faith schools, are seminaries of indoctrination, I am not sure that faith schools are, per se, a good thing (though I would not see them prohibited, just not encouraged).
The reason I got as much as I did out of school was because it was a Catholic school, it had no catchment area, so took from every part of the city - even the local state comp was significantly better, because of selection by mor&gage - it was the social mix of these sort-of-Catholics which was the best thing about the school and this is what is being lost - ironically because of oversubscribed faith schools.
If my experience was typical, and faith schools led to greater social mixing (rich and poor areas of a city) then I’d champion them. But my experience wasn’t typical. As it is, I think we may have to look at limiting any further faith school expansion, or pegging it back to its core purpose (to educate the fiathful holistically in their faith) rather than making them hideaways for the best-behaved kids and their parents.
129 - The improvement over the previous poll looks to have been even stronger amongst white voters than black voters. Though Clinton still leads with white voters while trailing very, very badly with black voters in NC.
130 - I realise we have had this discussion before and think Obama probably is favourite to win here. A Clinton win of 10 points is at least a 10/1 shot but ‘no chance in hell’? There has only been one opinion done Feb 18-21 Obama 40 Clinton 25 Undecided 35. Media reports suggest it will be competitive - Obama doing well in the west bordering Illinois, in the Chicago media market, Clinton doing well in the west. But you illustrate my point. She needs a win of that magnitude to have a hope of winning the PV, and thus it is very unlikely. Especially if Obama comes through his recent troubles without serious damage.
I’d be surprised if he didn’t go on Labour lies about inflation - building on yesterday’s launch of the rising cost of living campaign. I also expect him to have another go at the pigs ear made of embryology (no pun intended). The emphasis will be on lack of principle and dithering and the general ineptitude of Brown.
Here’s what that poll says of itself:
“PPP surveyed 673 likely Democratic primary voters on March 24th. The survey’s margin
of error is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify”.
Over to the experts, but my question is were such a poll (sample size, refusal rate, ‘weighting) to be conducted in the UK, would its findings be taken seriously?
135 - High MOE is a problem in analysing subsamples. The MOE on the whole poll is 3.8%, that among white voters is probably 6% plus.
121 - Like Stalin? Or Jimmy Carter?
Carville was born at Fort Bennning, Georgia in 1944. His dad was either on base or perhaps overseas; his mother was clearly in the area!
Though cannot totally eliminate possibility that many years ago, a wandering pedler from Tblisi or Thomasville might have compromised some poor swamper’s daughter way down Bayou Lafourche
On faith schools:
A recent report found that middle class kids in so-called “sink schools” did as well as middle class kids in “good schools.” Middle class kids were more successful independent of the level of education. While working class kids academic success was more dependent on the kind of school the kids went to. In other words, the obsession with school placements and “choice” among the middle class is damaging to the education system with no discernible benefit for parents or children.
138 - No, but its better than normal for the US where the average poll size is about 500. May be why they are so rubbish.
On pmq’s,
there was a fair bit in the media today regarding the comments made on gun crime sentencing by Bernard Hogan-Howe, chief constable of Merseyside Police. At 10/1 it is a fair punt.
141 - I’m in absolute agreement with both Keiran and G!
Only 50 posts after Tyson insinuated that I might be a Tory, I am now officially back on the Left!
Poll size and racial makeup aside, I don’t think we should ignore this poll. Obama’s speech got a lot of good coverage and countered accusations that he didn’t have any intellectual depth. The fact that it has been the subject of both laudatory leaders in newspapers and the most popular video on youtube says a lot. It may also have shored up support amongst some black people who thought he was ignoring the issue of race.
I’m still far from convinced that he can take it all the way, but he is definitely showing a strength and resilience which I wasn’t sure he had.
Gallup’s latest tracker has Obama leading by 2 47-45
and Rasmussen has Clinton leading by 3 46-43
140 Hahaha. No his family are all from Louisiana, but his father was stationed at Fort Benning during the war. James Carville was born in Georgia but is not a Georgian.
Brings to mind the Duke of Wellington’s statement when asked his Irish origins were raised - “Being born in a stable does not make one a horse”.
136. Fair enough, but I’d put it closer to 1 in 20 than 1 in 10. I’ve thought for a while that for Clinton to win this she needs about three or four events of odds about 1 in 5/10/20 to happen, or else a scandal of epic proportions. I hadn’t realised a poll had been done - that’s not too long ago, who was it?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7306567.stm -
Thursday last week - Lib Dems call for inquiry on Iraq
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7312217.stm -
Today - Tories seek Iraq war inquiry vote
Says it all really.
141. What obsession with ‘choice among the middle class’? How about choice for everyone? Or are you of the view that working class people are too thick to make informed choices about education - which is a common (if unspoken) position on the left?
Where’s “peripatetic”? Have the men in white coats come at last?
149. Lib Dems an irrelevance? Yes indeed.
152 Perhaps the Conservatives want an inquiry into why so many of them allowed themselves to be duped into supporting Blair on Iraq .
149. No one listening to the LDs ? LDs media machine is rubbish ??
149 - Read the penultimate paragraph of the first article, and I’m sure you’ll have the good grace to do an
150. There are values which are common to those in certain demographics. The extra value placed on education in higher income leads them to strive for better educational choices, while those in lower demographic groups don’t. This psychology is common among higher income groups who tend to go for deferred gratification, i.e. loans for university, saving for a holiday or mortgages. While lower income groups tend to want instant pleasure. Both are entirely rational positions for different circumstances. As lower income groups tend to have a less stable source of income and saving for a holiday or taking out a mortgage would have a higher level of risk.
Secondly, even those on the right acknowledge the culture of “no one works around here” and low expectations, challenging those expectations needs to be one of the key features of education policy.
149.SBS, I read about this a few weeks ago on ConHom.
149. Yup. It’s old news. As the first link in post 149 demonstrates.
155 - slightly
but not as much every Tory MP should do an 
- with the honourable exceptions of Ken Clarke and a few other sensible ones.
159. Bear in min Tory MP’s and indeed most Labour MP’s voted for the war based on fabricated or flawed evidence.
150 - Of course not but choice is only meaningful if there are a variety of good schools to choose from and people have the means to do so. The problem is the middle classes have more choice. They have the wealth to move to a better catchment area. They have more free time to go to church on a Sunday. Clearly class here is a generalisation. Some working class parents will work really hard to ensure their children work hard and get on while some middle class parents will not care.
156. So cutting through the pseudo-academic waffle you do indeed think working class people are too stupid and too obsessed with their own gratfication to care about their kids’ education. Typical New Labour - patronising and out of touch.
162. No i think that working class people have a different attitude based on different circumstances.
148 - Yes there is probably more agreement than disagreement between us. Howey Gauge, never heard of them so no idea how good they are. I think I read on RCP that Ann Selzer (of Iowa fame) would be polling Indiana at some point.
http://www.news-tribune.net/local/local_story_056160830.html
163. I wonder if you actually know many working class people, rather than encountering them solely in the pages of IPPR pamphlets and the like. Or indeed many parents.
160 - I know; weren’t they gullible, the dears! Trusting the Blair spin machine. Bless!
Horse whisperer - do you think that working-class parents have the same power as middle-class ones to find good schools for their children? If not, how would you resolve this? It is easy to snipe, harder to find solutions.
156. “challenging those expectations needs to be one of the key features of education policy.”
It is this problem that is as the centre of social breakdown throughout the developed world.
1606.
No, more like trusting the civil service, miltary and foreign findings on which the government based, or at least claimed to have based its reasoning on
167. Bring back academic selection, end selection by house price. Not perfect, but far better than the current situation.
Abolish teacher training in its current (left wing, dogmatic) mode, and abolish the NUT as well (harder, the last one, I admit).
169 - findings on which Alastair Campbell added his own sweet touch!
OT: Just got a glossy 4 page A4 “Parliamentary Report” from my beloved MP, Rik W’s employer. Guess how many picture