Off on holiday….
March 28th, 2008
Just to say that my wife, Jacky, and I are off to France for a week - we’ll be stayig in an apartment in one of the houses above. Although I’ll be writing the odd article our stand-in editor, Paul Maggs will once again be in charge.
Tomorrow morning we have a guest article on Pennsylvania by Ben Surtees and there are one or two of my “prepared this one earlier” pieces which will be published.
Whether I am able to do more depends on two things: the weather and the extent to which my Vodafone modem will work across the channel.
Best wishes,
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Bonnes vacances
happy holiday!
Not slumming it in one of Roger’s hovels again I hope, Mike?
[Unoriginally]….happy holiday.
Enjoy the Wine!
3. Is the first car on the right Roger’s car? Does he go native?
Re the debate on council by-elections from the last thread.
I don’t know how anyone can put any faith in by-elections as a tester of political sentiment in the country as a whole. I mean, Westminster-wise, if that were the case, the Lib Dems would probably hold around 80% of the seats in the Commons!
Obviously they register some mood, but hardly enough from which one can make conclusive predictions. I mean, how is a few hundred people voting in an election that hardly registers on any voters’ radar anyway (local councils), when the MAIN elections for such councils have pretty low turnouts as well, a symbol of the national mood?
Come on Mark Senior, you’re getting worse than poor Roger for predictions on here…
Regarding a couple of posts on the last thread. McCain only considers himself a “Conservative” these days because he has to get through a Republican nomination process to get a realistic chance at the Presidency.
The reason many papers criticise Cameron is because media outlets are either centre-left or pretty hard right. If you fall in the middle of that gap you get hit from all sides.
I agree entirely with RodCrosby’s views on AV.
As for Obama’s basketball match, I think he’ll win.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daH0ltD20A0
Alas I’m not in Villefranche where Roger has a stunning apartment over-looking the harbour and all the restaurateurs seem to know him. His advice on good food and wine is pretty sound. You can’t beat champagne soc1alists.
Not exactly Cannes is it ?!?!
I suppose it’s the topless beaches eh Mike …. but for heavens sake, please wear your vest this time !!
Happy Hols.
8. Is it wrong that I’m warming to McCain? The man does scare me slightly as, post-Bush, I’m somewhat GOP-phobic, but the more I see of him the more I see him as a credible candidate.
I also think that the mudslinging/scandals/drawn out Democratic nomination process has seriously undermined that party’s chances, given the GOP plenty of ammunition in time for November, and made the whole election slightly farcical. I can’t stand Hillary now, and Obama is beginning to make me feel cold, too.
What’s more, I do wonder whether the US electorate are more likely to go for the ‘middle way’ of McCain versus the radical vision Obama espouses in changing the political culture.
11. Note when I say “middle way” I don’t mean in the Blairite sense of the term - I mean the middle way between the Bush administration and the ‘change’ message of Obama. I exclude Hillary in the equation because, bless her, she’s not got much of a chance now, has she?
I noted with rye amusement this morning on Lord Malloch-Brown, when seeing his contribution on the parliament channel in a debate on Zimbabwe. A particular point stuck out to me – (Lord Malloch-Brown) the electoral register is not accurate; the electoral commission is not independent; and the opposition parties are not permitted to campaign. These features he has mentioned are all either implemented by the Labour in this country or proposed by Labour MP’s i.e. the prevention of campaigning of Tories by not allowing them to campaign between elections.
- 
- 
So an unelected peer appointed by an unelected and mandatless manipulator (Brown) . Lectures on democracy – I would laugh if it was not such a series subject.
I have copied and pasted the contents Lord Malloch-Brown contribution below:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldhansrd/text/80327-0001.htm#08032768000574
27 Mar 2008 : Column 626
The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Malloch-Brown): My Lords, the conditions for elections in Zimbabwe are poor: the electoral register is not accurate; the electoral commission is not independent; and the opposition parties are not permitted to campaign and hold rallies freely nor are they being given fair access to media. It is important for the credibility of those that do send observers that they ensure that Zimbabwe’s election meets the SADC principles and guidelines.
10. but for heavens sake, please wear your vest this time !!
Don’t forget a pair of y - fronts on your head or a hanchief!
6. You know that was the first thing i noticed too, the boxmobile.
Great minds think alike…and so do ours….
13. The ‘noble’ Lord only believes in elections to bodies which can’t make any serious decisions. Real government should be left to intelligent bureaucrats like himself, preferably based in Brussels.
Mike,
Is that Saint-Valerie in the Somme area? It’s a very nice place.
15. I dare not mention it on my first post! Those cars are funny, I don’t want to insult the fench but they have some really sh1t cars! They make the austin princess and Austin Allegro look like areodynamic top notch motors!
16.
He has “specal” excemption! As do the Labour party. It is akin to thug who attacks blind old age male penioners lecturing a thug who attacks blind old female penioners.
Totally OT has anyone heard Howard Dean saying that FL & MI delegates WILL be seated in some shape or form?
16. Sorry i will try that again: He has “special” excemption! As do the Labour party. It is akin to thug who attacks blind old age male pensioners lecturing a thug who attacks blind old female pensioners.
re 17. Spot on Matthew.
17/22. A line from Mission Impossible 2 springs to mind;
“If I told where I was going, I wouldn’t be on holiday..”
Take it easy Mike. Please *don’t* log-in constantly to this site with posts and updates.
Have a proper break. You deserve it.
Mike - enjoy it!
11. I too have a soft spot for John McCain. I think he would have been a good President in 2000. He ran on a moderate ticket, he wasn’t beholden to any party establishment and he had a good record of challenging conventional conservative wisdom when the evidence contradicted it.
Sadly, the John McCain of 2008 is not the guy than ran in 2000. He now seems to accept the Karl Rove line of painting anyone less aggressive than you as being weak, or of lacking courage. He also seems to have been won over by ideological tests: when Romney said the surge is “apparently working”, McCain repeatedly chastised him for saying “apparently” when “it simply IS working”. McCain 08 seems to believe that you don’t have to just agree with his position, you have to agree with it as a matter of faith. Those that he labelled “agents of tolerance” like the bigot Falwell, he now cosies up to. Absurd positions like teaching ID in schools he now backs. Positions he once decried as being unfair like the Bush tax cuts he now supports and promises to take further. But what’s most worrying are the people he has pandered to get here. His campaign team are all ex-lobbyists. His money has come from far-right religious groups and corporate fundraisers. He owes these people now - something very worrying indeed.
bonnes vacances Mike:
a site with all the US state polls that is easy to read.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/ppic-mccain-within-3-of-clinton-9-of.html
Is it worth waiting up for the hinted at Sun/Mori?
27. Only if its epoch making and, well it won’t be…sleep is better.
27. & 28. This poll is it supposed to be good for the Tories or Labour?
My life consists of dog poo and potholes and draft strategies and chasing email replies from lazy council officers. These polls add sun shine to my drag political existence. But yes sleep would do me more Good. Also i can’t face leaving the office and walking home through “The Night Time Economy” as the alcohol fuelled hell on earth that our city centres are called.
29. I suppose now Skeleton has been replaced by that bloke that looks like a kind of Rory bremner impersonator of Cameron, the lib dems may have gone forth and ……
29. Dunno yet.
30. I’ll give you some better news. I’ve heard that there’s a move to try to bring oil down below $90 a barrel over the next lot of months. Whether it works or not, who can tell.
Nick Clegg is better looking than David Cameron. Though the approximation is I’m sure what was on some members mind.
32. I doubt it! All it takes is a ruptured pipeline or some nutter in Iran to make some proclimation about the US. and the price will rocket. Maybe these middle eastern leaders do it on purpose to keep the oil price high.
If we were going into conspiracy theories maybe other middle eastern oil producing nations or the Russians deploy special forces to keep the oil price high. Given the russians are playing cold war games with the UK - it would not suprise me. State sponsored terrorism by the Russians. They may not be strictly commies anymore but they do some very underhand things.
32. thank You. You should work for the Samaritans. I’m not fussed about a high oil price as it will spur conservation but the speed with which its gone over a hundred dollars really worries me. We don’t want a re run of the 1970’s without a bi polar world to ensure some kind of stability.
Perhaps its the radio 4 drama on the apocalypse I caught this afternoon that has put me in such a poor mood.
I bet the University Boat Race will be one by a crew substantially represented by a LD MP.
36 Is it still true that the premiership has no teams in Towns/City’s with Tory MP’s ?
37 - Reading! Well not for long!
Either Rob Wilson will lose his seat or Reading will get relegated.
Nick Clegg is better looking than David Cameron -
Clegg has a dodgy skin though!
40.
Clegg is better looking than skeleton though!
39 - Reading will enjoy the Championship next season. But soon it will have TWO Tory MPs
And in 2011 the Boat race winner will be represented by a Tory……
42. The chances of the Tories winning Oxford East from third place are nil… I’d bet on peter tatchell representing the Boat race winners before them !
Right I have searched the usual suspects for any sign of a poll and the Sun site and am off home with a bottle spainish shiraz. The supermarket had got round to implimenting the tax rises today and it was on offer otherwise i wouldn’t have touched it with a barge poll.
43 may I remind you we won here in 1983…….
33. Nick Clegg is not better looking than Cameron. He is not in good shape. A flabby version of Cameron - quite apt.
He also has that smug bearing of someone who thinks he is fanciable. A turn off.
Whilst we Tories and Lib Dems argue about the relative handsomeness of ‘our guys’ is someone going to represent Gordon?
45 Nick Clegg will be looking for a new job after the next GE as LDs look for their 50th leader or so since 2001…..
45. Poor old Gord. He doesn’t have much luck, does he?
All this said no party, IMHO, can pride themselves on the looks of their leaders. Cameron is going bald and his face is getting rounder by the day. Clegg looks 14. As for the clunking one from Kirkcaldy - I’ll be polite and leave it there…
47 Maybe he’s looking for a safer seat as he really does appear to be seriously at risk, although having become Lib Dem leader is probably worth a couple of thousand crucial votes.
Looks like Hill-Bob is back in the running. If true, this changes everything.
Meanwhile on Football gets the kis of the Brown Darling…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/europe/7319045.stm
Wembley Stadium has lost out to Real Madrid’s Bernabeu Stadium to host the 2010 Champions - because Labour wants to tax the players.
New Rasmussen Presidential Poll for Virginia :
McCain 58% .. Clinton 36%
McCain 52% .. Obama 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/content/view/video_portal/(channel)/Rasmussen%20Reports/(clipid)/2240_Virginia0328
48 Bald men are very virile.
49 He’s the LD’s own decapitation strategy - in reverse.
that wouldnt be good for the Dems if it ever came to it.
Has no oen picked up on Howard Dean’s comments or were they discussed earlier?
I was watching BBC Parliament the other day and there was a whole crop of tasty tories in there 30’s. I was quite upset and how attractive some of them were. All we have in that department is John Leech and perhaps Stephen Williams though he has started to bald.
Poll leads and looks. Oh God. It was all so simple with IDS
54. Surely Nicholas Soames balances it all out, Yellow?
wasn’t the last party leader to lose a seat Archibald Sinclair.? hallam is under no threat and I have no rose tinted specs about the prospects for the next GE at all.
55 Matt1. Only if balanced in the scales with half the Parliamentary Labour Party !!
55. If I wanted to have sex with a wardrobe I’d prefer the real thing.
54
For Labour…Chris Bryant fancies himself. Guido has a picture of him posing in his off-white Y-fronts if its of interest?
No?
never trust a man who Wears Y Fronts. I can easierly forgive the gaydar advert but Y Fronts.
56. David Trimble(UUP) in 2005, Gerry Adams(SF) in 1992, Gordon Wilson (SNP) 1987, Harry West(UUP) Oct 1974….
58 YC. Nick Soames :
http://www.bowerscabinets.com/images/largearmoire2.jpg
61. those weren’t big mainland national parties. Ashdown and kennedy got big boosts in there first elections.
However its an interesting list and one I hadn’t thought of.
right I really am off with My spainish shiraz now. I’m sure the tone of the thread will improve. Check the Hillary you tube link up thread if you haven’t. It made me laugh.
62. I’m not sure which was funnier, Jack W. The picture or the fact that it’s title (pre clicking) was “large armoire 2.”
Jeremy Hunt is somewhat dishy.
65 Matt1.
Good nite all
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
63. I often wonder what it would take to remove a major party leader: after all, even in meltdown years most have soldiered on with pretty stonking majorities.
Of course, this is largely because of the extra publicity but also because most party leaders come from stonking safe constituencies.
The most ‘at risk’ for a while was Michael Howard in 2005 - the Lib Dems didn’t help themselves when they published their decapitation strategy, there.
I am sure the SNP will put up a big fight to rid the UK of McBroon in 2010 - but they’ll undoubtably fall short. Hard to see anything with a red rosette losing in Kirkcaldy.
Any polls out later?
67 - Derby have more chance of staying up than SNP have of unseating Brown…..
67 - Kirkcaldy is not far from here - can’t see it happening. The ‘Lang Toun’ will keep Broon, the seat contains ex-mining areas in and around Cowdenbeath. He would have to really have to upset them to chuck him out.
68 - in Warsaw.
re 54 you just need to find Stephen Tall a seat
56 - Gordon Wilson in my home seat of Dundee East in 1987.
69,
Colchester have more chance of promotion than the SNP have of unseating Brown.
69. That was depressingly realistic, Ave It!
Come on Colchester. You can do it.
Both Fulham and Chelsea are in a Conservative controlled local authority (Hammersmith and Fulham) and have a Conservative MP (Greg Hands)
Manchester United is within the Conservative controlled Borough of Trafford.
Tories may have had an MP in Oxford East in 1983-7. Twas Stephen Norris - Berkshire Councillor, Oxfordshire MP, Essex MP, London Mayor Candidate… whither next Norris?
Tories will not win OxWAb, Ox East or Cambridge for at least 20 years.
Arthur Henderson, the Labour leader following MacDonald’s expulsion, was defeated in 1931…at Burnley, I think.
76 - but what seat is Chelsea’s ground in?
Have a great holiday Mike. Good luck to Paul Maggs.
78 Even better example: Balfour in 1906.
Enjoy your holiday, Mike.
81. And replaced as Leader of the Conservative Party by the MP for BOOTLE!
Where’s Ave it?
Have a good holiday…
London Elects - the official site for the GLA - is reporting (along with comments on Anthony Wells election site) that the Conservatives have failed to nominate a candidate for Southwark and Lambeth constituency.
Is this a mistake by London Elects or a cock up by the Conservatives?
If the latter it might just hit Boris on the competency front. If he can’t get his candidate nominated correctly…
The Chelsea ground is in the Hammersmith and Fulham constituency
84. Hard to see it impacting on Boris.
84 If true it might bode well for the Lib Dems to pick up their first constituency seat
Have a great holiday, Mike!
…a sad day for freedom of speech on the net, http://www.liveleak.com, under threat has removed Fitna.
Reading will certainly not be relegated.
Looks a cold and damp part of France but hope food and drink good and no doubt you will meet the blessed Carla.
Have a good break, Mike.
“Tories will not win OxWAb, Ox East or Cambridge for at least 20 years.”
The last two I agree on, the first one am not so sure, especially when Evan Harris steps down as MP