Ben Surtees previews Pennsylvania
March 29th, 2008 
What can we expect from the Keystone State?
On April 22nd the Democratic race, after a six week hiatus, will head to Pennsylvania and the state’s presidential primary, where over 150 delegates are at stake, the largest allocation of any state yet to vote.
Pennsylvania is a diverse state, once colourfully described by James Carville as “Pittsburgh on the West, Philadelphia on the East and Alabama down the middle” and there is some truth to this. The state is dominated by the two large urban centres of Philadelphia, dominating the Delaware valley the south east and in the south west Pittsburgh, the historic centre of the American steel industry, while in-between is a wide rural region centred around the Susquehanna valley and shaped like a ‘T’.
Reflecting Carville’s characterization of the state the two urban centres have provided the Democrats’ traditional base in the state while the rural ‘T’ has been reliably Republicans.
The Democratic primary on April 22nd will differ from many of those earlier in the cycle by being restricted to registered Democrats only. This represents a particular disadvantage for Senator Obama who has done well with independents and republicans but has typically lagged behind Senator Clinton amongst register Democrats. Hillary Clinton also enjoys further advantages in the state, older, blue collar democrats, who have typically backed the New York Senator by wide margins over Obama, dominate the electorate while the state’s Democratic establishment is firmly supporting her campaign. Consequently, going into the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton enjoys massive structural, organisation and demographic advantages over Barack Obama.
That said, Obama still stands to pull off a strong showing in Pennsylvania, despite Senator Clinton’s obvious advantages. Despite the strong institutional support for Clinton, Philadelphia’s large black community is likely back Obama very strongly. Furthermore the prosperous Philadelphia suburbs could also provide a good base for Obama considering his appeal to affluent, liberal voters. The Obama campaign’s greatest challenge remains that the ‘closed’ nature of the primary disqualifies the moderate republicans and independents, upon whom much of Obama’s success has been built, from taking part. In an effort to address this, the Obama campaign has had an aggressive effort to register republicans and independents as Democrats before the deadline for such re-registration on March 25th.
Ultimately the nature of the Pennsylvania primary and the strength of the Clinton campaign in the state makes an Obama victory highly unlikely. Current the polls give Senator Clinton a commanding lead, however Obama’s past ‘form’ suggests that it would be unwise to write off his chances at narrowing the gap in the state. Perhaps most intriguingly, it will be over the next few days and weeks that we are able to properly assess the impact of the Wright controversy and Obama’s response to it. The extent to which it has seriously damaged the Illinois Senator’s candidacy or proven his resilience under pressure could, in large part, be measured by his performance in Pennsylvania in five weeks time.
Update: Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senator Bob Casey jr endorsed Obama on Friday (click on picture above to get the video), representing what is a potentially very significant boost for Obama in the state.
Casey is the son of popular, former Governor Bob Casey snr and commands an important base amongst the kind of blue-collar, culturally conservative Democrats with whom Obama has struggled in the past. On its own this endorsement doesn’t fundamentally alter the race in the state, but it gives Obama an important opening and a powerful surrogate (plus, yet another super delegate).
Ben Surtees was one of the first people to post here when the site was established in 2004.
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Two Obama supporters in the Senate called for Clinton to pull out today, “for the good of the party”. I think they know she wouldn’t possibly do it before Pennsylvania, but it has two effects:
(1) It means it is already lodged in people’s minds so in seems less provocative when they can return to the issue after Guam.
(2) It means it is harder for Clinton to play hardball with Obama, since the more the Democrat candidates seem to be fighting, the bigger pressure there will be for her to pull out.
As for Pennsylvania, we still have a month to go, but I still think Clinton will win by ten points. It will take a few months before pastorgate truly fades from memories, and it will stick in white blue collar minds more than most. Not mentioned above is that Pennsylvania also has an older population than most states, and also less university educated people. In fact, if you could create an ideal state for Clinton, Pennsylvania will probably be it.
Pastorgate’s already having less effect, partly as Obama handled it pretty well, and partly because Clinton has shot herself in the foot (unlike the snipers) with ‘Snipergate’ (God I hate ‘gates’ - can’t someone get involved in another political scandal so big that it can generate a new suffix - I mean Watergate was 35 years ago - 35 years of ‘gates’, it’s like a computer geek’s wet dream). The polls have already started to shift back to their previous pattern. Which means that Clinton will win Penn by some margin - but not as large as may have been predicted a week ago.
Well done, Ben. Interesting article, and complete with trademark!
Yes - I noticed the ‘that said’, Tressage.
Thanks Ben.
It’s for characteristically balanced and intelligent reviews like this that I always check PB first before passing on to feebler media outlets, such as the BBC and CNN.
3 - Thought I should toss in the old ‘TS’ somewhere
Is the conclusion the Hillary will regain some momentum from Pennsylvania? Ought we to be backing her now?
OT
Times guest columnist sticks the boot in to Gordon…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3642590.ece
OT
This is by far the more interesting column in the Times, MP waxing lyrical about the state: wonder how that will go down on the right?
http://tinyurl.com/2nr9fj
7. Difficult one. Obama is still in my opinion value for the nomination, and consequently Hillary isn’t. Short of a serious scandal - worse than his pastor problems - She can’t catch him in pledged delegates and is unlikely to finish so strongly as to make some sort of credible ‘momentum’ case to the SuperDelegates, though that wouldn’t necessarily stop her trying. The odds on something on that scale knocking Obama out have to be well under the 23 or 24 per cent implied by the market prices.
That said (said in tribute to a fine piece), Hillary should poll very well in Pennsylvania. I stress ’should’, because while it’s all set up for her, a lot can change in more than three weeks as it did in Ohio (another state that should have very heavily favoured her). Whether that makes her a worthwhile short term bet depends on (a) whether you think the markets have adequately priced in the likely result, and (b) whether you think sufficient people will be impressed by how she’ll poll there to pile in between now and a short time after the election. Personally, I can’t see it. I think there’s more chance of Obama pulling back vote share between now and April 22nd, and that in any case, the markets have more than accounted for a win for her there.
I’m intrigued by the mention of Guam earlier in the thread. Will this really be significant, and if so, will either go to campaign there? I’d have thought it will be an amusing, but essentially irrelevant side-show with Indiana and North Carolina voting three days later (in primaries, not a caucus like Guam), and those two will be the next elections the media will care about. I’d have thought that Puerto Rico will be the only primary outside the USA which the candidates should take seriously.
Somewhat OT, there’s an interesting discussion on Matthew Yglesias’s blog about who Obama is likely to pick as his VP candidate. Starts off with Yglesias’s take on the idea of Bob Casey (see above) filling the slot, but everybody else’s opinions in the comments are worth a read:
http://tinyurl.com/2xgu3c
Thanks Ben Surtees for an informative article. Hillary should win Pennsylvania comfortably. That said she is not likely to erode Obama’s delegate lead by much and the pressure will surely mount soon after this vote for her to suspend her candidacy.
5. Welcome back PtP. As Mike goes on holiday you return. Do you have a time share appartment together?
9
Of course! it could be an April Fool a little on the early side.
Still I was only thinking this morning: Thank God! BA & BAA are no longer in the public sector, think what a mess they would have made of Terminal5.
Should anybody be interested, we’ve stuck a Pennsylvania Handicap up at ladbrokes. Obama gets a 12pt start, 5/6 each of two.
We’ve introduced Bob Casey at 25/1 for the Dem VP.
7 No. Backing her is throwing money away. IF it even goes as far as PA - more on that in a moment - it will finally dawn on a lot more people that winning states doesn’t count - winning pledged delegates does. Even if Obama has another pastor problem and loses 60:40, he still gets inexorably nearer to winning the majority of pledged delegates. So unless she wins the few remaing states by 75:25 or better (which she won’t) then she cannot catch him on pledged delegates.
Which was why Clinton’s high-rolling billionaire backers tried to put a shot across the bows of Pelosi this week. Pelosi (the woman who holds the highest rank in the history of US politics, let’s not forget) was told to stop repeating her comment (instruction?)that the Super-delegates should not - will not - go against the winner of the pledged delegate race. She told those donors where to get off. The Super-delegates will fall into line once that pledged delgate winner is known. End of. And that pledged delegate winner will be Obama. They know - and Hillary knows - it is an endorsement for him in all but name.
At the moment there is a fine balancing act being undertaken by the Super-D’s. From all I read, it seems clear that many Super-D’s favour Obama - or at least, will follow the Pelosi line and acknowledge him as the winner if he gets the majority of pledged delegates. (The enthusiastic Clintonistas signed up in her column long ago.) Yes, the party is losing out some by not having a nominee to square up to McCain. But the greater risk at the moment is in Clinton being bounced into giving up her campaign. She has to be beaten by the voters - or she will simply not go quietly into that night.
If she is beaten by the Party, she will be a constant thorn in Obama’s side - his Ted Heath as it were, the senior party figure (figures - they will have to include President Clinton too) always happy to point out how things could have been so much better if only….and all the time destabilising the party by sounding out who will back her for a run in 2012.
But she has come close to making it difficult for many to stay the course with this approach. Her willingness to point out Obama’s weaknesses by highlighting the greater experience of McCain is causing many to choke. Her own “experience” - built on puffed-up claims based on experience-by-association - is unravelling faster than a sniper’s bullet and seriously hurting her credibility as a candidate.
If it were anyone but Hillary, many more would have decried her sly campaign already. But it has to be allowed to burn out naturally - before the Party puts the proverbial stake through the heart of any lingering Presidential ambitions she may harbour and buries it in an unmarked grave out on a desolate hilltop.
There are already those high in the Party saying that she cannot win by delegates; and if she is waiting for Obama’s campaign to implode, then that is best served by suspending her campaign now and being called on by the party at the Convention if that should occur. But if she is suspended, she cannot do anything other than sit quietly by, silently hoping and praying for Obama to get caught caught with the proverbial live boy or dead girl. But she knows in her heart that he won’t make that pratfall. If she sits on her hands, he will win the nomination; and the presidency; and be uncontested for another run in 2012. So her only hope is to derail him by lobbing in the odd grenade - or that he gets hit by a falling asteroid.
But if she makes one more slip that is perceived as damaging the party in November - if she gets caught even looking at a metal pipe or even thinking of trying to implement the “Tanya Harding kneecapping campaign” (of destroying Obama in 2008 to allow her a clear run in 2012) then woebetide her. The price of her hanging around in a contest she can’t win, damaging the ultimate candidate, spending Democratic dollars that should go towards beating McCain or supporting camapings for Senate or Congress- that price becomes far too high. If that happens, expect a very rapid dénouement, even before PA gets to vote.
12 Must admit another election today is personally more interesting as I’ve family involved and fearful of violence and even worse economic collapse whatever the outcome but has anyone on here or elsewhere estimated the likely delegate split after Pennsylvannia, Guam, Indiana and North Carolina? Pennsylvannia looks a Clinton win in votes but will it do much in delegates? surely any Clinton advance there will be more than countered by Obama in North Carolina, so it does look like Indiana (and maybe Guam) may play a bigger role than expected.
With latest rumours that Florida and Michigan will be seated but in ratio to overall delegates we must be getting towards the end game.
13 And I woke up and thought thank God BA and BAA aren’t still publicly owned and I don’t have to pay for it all.
17
Ah Yes! but not the panacea we were promised is it!
9 “Citing the achievements of a Labour government, one speaker began with firework safety legislation. Another mentioned the Jubilee line on the London Underground, on which he had arrived (but which was in fact built by the Tories)…”
They missed figures showing Tractor Production is up this year
17. Has God been privatised?
19
Listen! ‘Ol Matt has got it bang on, and Dave agrees, all the the Tories have to do is convince everyone they’ll be better socialists than Labour (dead easy) and they’ll shoot ahead in the polls: its worked hasn’t it!
The longest suicide note in history 1983, is gaining support from across the political spectrum.
Leave the EU.Nationalise Banks.Re-Nationalise railways.
Take back the Utilities ,Water, Gas, Electric into state control.
22
Leave the EU, isn’t that rather popular amongst Tories?
A few more price rises by the utilities, and energy shortages, who knows? as for the banks, not exactly flavour of the month are they.
The railways, c’mon they get a higher subsidy now than when it was British Rail!
On topic. The Pennsylvania handicap betting is yet another innovative market from shadsy and Ladbrokes. Well done and thanks. Wish I could work out which one is value? Anyone take a view?
23, Yes in times of shortage, a backlash against globalisation,could ensue.
More protectionism, and elements of the 1983 manifesto could become popular.
However can`t see any of the major parties,latching on to it.
So many will argue that there is no choice, so why bother.
Extreme ends of politics could benefit though, if there was a serious depression.
Excellent article Ben and some useful contibutions.
However I note ‘Peter the Punter’ is back from his padded cell at ConHome. Was it only a fortnight …. sigh.
………………………..
Meanwhile over at ‘Slate’ they have charmingly introduced ‘Hillary - Deathwatch’ - a notional market on her chances of winning the nomination. Their first opinion is 12% ….. I’d have put a decimal point between the two figures !!
http://www.slate.com/id/2187558/
17 & 18 Err what happens if that rather large loan Ferrovial have doesn’t roll over. Who steps in the Government as with Railtrack or not
24: Don’t know much about Pennslyvania specifically, but looking at the RCP polls, Clinton ahead by 12pt seems to be what you’d expect if nothing much changed between now and then.
So how will things change in the next few weeks? The tendancy of the races so far in Clinton-leaning states has been for Obama to close the gap in the weeks leading up to the poll before slipping back a bit from his peak in the actual election, and you’d expect a bigger effect than usual this time because he has a bigger financial advantage.
So on balance backing Obama would seem like marginally better value. That said, if you expect Obama to lose by less than 12pt in Pennsylvania I’d have thought you’d be better putting the money on him to win the nomination instead…
27
That’s the problem! does a government shrug its shoulders, say its the market tuffff! or not?
28 Good point, Edmund. If he finishes within 12 points of her in Pa, it is definitely over.
26 Sod you, Jack W. I had everybody believing I’d been on holidy and you go and tell them all about me being banged up in ConHome.
I done my time, now forget the crime please.
15- marquee- very good post.
“London Elects - the official site for the GLA - is reporting (along with comments on Anthony Wells election site) that the Conservatives have failed to nominate a candidate for Southwark and Lambeth constituency.” Is this true? Got to be a massive aid to the Liberal Democrats if it is
24/28: One more thought about that Ladbrokes thing - I wonder what happens if Hillary drops out of the race before Pennsylvania? Pulling some numbers out of my bum, I’d guess there’s about a 15% to 20% chance of that happening. If that would void the bet, so you’re betting on what Hillary’s lead would be provided nothing very bad happens to her, she might actually be value…
34. I assume her name would still be on the ballot? In which case the bets would stand.
29, Well there sure isn`t a moral hazard anymore.
Both Labour and Conservative would intervene.
As Cameron is becoming more Heseltine than Redwood.
Its not about picking winners anymore, but propping up major losers.
33 - It’s supposed to be Shirley Houghton, who’s Conservative councillor for Millwall http://www.shirleyhoughton.com/
37 - Actually looking at the London Elects site she is listed under Lambeth and Southwark, so probably just an admin error.
http://www.londonelects.org.uk/candidates/the_candidates.aspx
35 If she is still on the ballot but suspended her campaign, then the Obama margin will be huge….
36
I think you can get away with it on energy/transport, finance houses, there’ll be questions.
Today is a very important day! Parris in the Times and Heffer in the Telegraph, have drawn up the battle lines for what will be the major debate over the next few years.
Both on the, ‘right’ and totally opposed to each other.
Heff.
http://tinyurl.com/263ezk
It is in our interests here for the Democrat race to continue as long as possible- whilst it continues there is value on Obama. McCain poll ratings stay high whilst the Democrats slug it out.
I am quite certain now that he will get the nomination and go on to win the presidency.
Once Obama gets the nomination I doubt you will get anything close to even money on him.
24 The Pennsylvania handicap betting is yet another innovative market from shadsy and Ladbrokes. Well done and thanks. Wish I could work out which one is value? Anyone take a view?
I was just about to say the same! Is this down to you Shadsy? If so, take a bow. If you can handicap Pennsylvania, why not, as yet, the London Mayoralty - preferably expressed in % bands of support for the major candidates.
stjohn - I haven’t checked the odds since Ladbrokes first put them up, but since Obama has always tended to gain support in other States during the campaign and IIRC the last poll I saw showed him 10% behind, if he’s still available at around 5/6 I’d have to go with him.
42. Thanks Peter. We’ll have something similar to your suggestion for the Mayoral race, probably next week sometime.
40 Surely that’s been the battle for decades? The right is a vague descriptor (as is the left) in a time with no strong ideologies but within Conservatism there has always been this tension.
Surge in support for Conservatives according to William Hill:
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=9795
40- Heffer is right on this. Brown bangs on about Britishness, the union, flag waving, oath’s of allegiance because he thinks this will limit his weakness- his Scottishness, and help keep all those all important English marginals. Brown’s political calculation here to come up with crap policies to limit his own perception of his weaknesses is breathtaking.
Just to get this clear- Gordon’s Scottishness is not the issue. In fact the guy is not even popular in Scotland. It is his character, competence, weakness, and just general all round unlikability that is his problem.
31 PtP. But it was such a delicious crime !! …. an endangered species - an Essex virg*n, a prize winning marrow, six freshly skinned pet rabbits, the Torbay ‘Ladies’ male voice choir and a constables truncheon !! …. who’d have thought it !! …. and on a Sunday !!
42 My view is reinforced by Edmund’s comments in #34 concerning the possibility of Hillary’s withdrawal beforehand (altough I wouldn’t put that prospect as high as high as his 15%-20%), coupled with Shadsy’s assumption in #35 that bets would still stand if her name was on the ballot paper.
I’ve just checked Ladbrokes website and both candidates are still priced at 5/6 (1.83/1) - I’ve now backed Obama.
47 Absolutely classic Jack W - you’ve had me spluttering out my late cornflakes!
45- yeh right- they have moved to 4/7 from 5/8. Huge change, not.
The interesting thing here is the slashing of odds for Gore. Good call Mike again on this.
I just cannot see how the Democrats could select a much lesser candidate over 2 strong ones. Someone has to persuade Hillary to go on Obama’s ticket, and wait 8 years before she has a further realistic crack at the top jo.
[47] Being utterly degenerate, I can work most of it out, but I don’t even want to think about where the freshly skinned rabbits fitted in…
48- peter- do you think Obama can win Pennyslvania. Yesterday you were telling us to back Hillary on betfair, better interest than the halifax.
O/T but in the reports on the spending on refurbishing the Speakers apartment there is a common phrase (so presumably picked up from a PA release)
“A further £992,000 has been spent on the Speaker’s garden but most of the work has been to improve security.”
A million pounds on a garden? What did they do to improve security - install some special features as seen in from Indiana Jones or Ocean’s Eleven? Its a garden in a building already pretty secure.
Don’t be silly Jack - Essex v*rgins - aren’t they rarer than unicorns?
50 As Hiilz is 61 inlate October,this is probably her one and only crack at the White House;FWIW I do not believe she would stoop to ‘Tonya Harding’ tactics,and sometime in May Bracak Obama will be sfaely named as Democratic nominee,and then lets BRING IT ON- Go-bama!!
Ted- this kind of news makes me despair. I have sat in courts where we send children to prison for stealing car stereos, yet politicians can spend taxpayers money like this.
52 Tyson - I did hold my hands up yesterday and admit I hadn’t taken into account the possdibility of her throwing in the towel before Pennsylvania, although I don’t think this is likely as she’s not a quitter and would want to go out on a high, e.g. by winning this state, which I still think she will but NOT to the extent of Ladbroke’s 12% handicapped bet.
15: Good post.
55- paddy old chap- look at Mr Chips, Berlusconi and others. 69 may look to still be quite.
No worries come November. There will be a Democrat as president.
Meanwhile …. as I dodge the bullets from genetically modified Peter Rabbits everwhere …. oh God I’m in ‘Hillary World’ ….
Me thinks that Mrs Clinton will not be renewing her subscription to the Wall Street Journal anytime soon :
http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html
59,True-and Reagan was first inaugurated weeks before his 70th birthday.On that topic,in 2013 January 20th will fall on a Sunday-I seem to recall Reagan’s 2nd inauguration,in 1985,also a Sunday,was held on Monday the 21st-I believe this is US protocol-if I am wrong someone please correct me!
Britain will pay almost £1 billion more to the EU this year, taking the country’s total contribution to more than £4 billion.
60- jack w- a tad mean methinks.
I think Hillary is a fantasist rather than a liar. Similar to Blair. Big difference. I find fantasists rather endearing- unless of course they try to take us to war for spurious reasons a la Blair.
Ten years of record immigration to Britain has produced virtuallyno economic benefits for the country, a parliamentary inquiry has found.
62- money well spent. Now you must agree that not joining the Euro was a big mistake?
63 Tyson. Harsh, yes. However there are nuggets in there that I think we all recognize.
60 Doubt Hillary would be surprised by that article - Peggy Noonan would have been an unlikely supporter.
Doesn’t make the article untrue though.
62 - That looks like an inflation rate of 30% to me. Let’s just pay them 2.5% more. After all, that is the true inflation rate. The Chancellor told us so.
66- Hillary represents a woman’s best chance of getting to be president in an epoch. Shame that it is a woman really putting the boot in here.
Hillary is finished, but I do not like to see her getting roughed up in this way. At this rate she is going to leave with no dignity at all.
69 I hear what you are saying-but as the spouse of a 2 term president,she would have had a unique insight into precisely what she was letting herself in for,so whilst I bear her no malice,I cannot go too dewy-eyed and feel ‘Aw,poor Hiilary’
64
Can this be true?
For years this government has been telling us that immigrants are single,young,don’t use public services and pay lots of taxes.
70. I agree with you on that point. All political careers have the potential to be undermined by the dirt diggers and the competition. I think you have to be either really brave or extremeley dumb to put yourself forward to the type of scrutiny a western political system will instigate against candidates in high politics and even low politics.
We complain about the crooked expense stuffing that MP’s get upto here but the political system is only really open to the risk takers.
That is why i still rate Clinton higher than Obama - Obama does not seem to be a political risk taker. Although he is alleged to have dabbled with crack!
71. Well on my recent visit to a doctors surgery there was an eastern european faimly with fresh offspring. They could not even speak English!!! I did not know whether to feel sorry for them or resent them.
It is a great paradox immigration as the property owners welcome the price increases that mass uncontrolled immigration brings. Ironically though it destabilises the young professionals in this country who want children as it is hard to become established. So we as a nation are subsidiing other countries offspring and penilising or blocking are own from reproducing………… Great idea that! Well done Labour!
Really i cannot believe that Labour are so crap at everything - they are an absolute disaster.
Tyson 65. How do you imagine being in the Euro would have avoided the economic mess the government has led us into? If ever it was necessary for the BofE to have some influence over our affairs, it is now. Incidentally, are you a fifth- former, doing GCSE Economics?? If so,I suggest you have a word with your economics tutor- might save you screwing up in your exam. Goodluck!
74. To be fair the Euro has appreciated against Sterlking dramatically and may represent some of the increase in UK payments to Europe. Obviously membership of the Euro would have ment that their would be no fluctution. I am against the UK joining the Euro but their is merit in Tysons argument.
74. The monetary authorities in the UK have lost control on some areas of policy anyway!
76. Monetary Authorities have no control:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/29/nrates129.xml
This will actually mean we go into recession as people cannot spend what they have not got!
Speaker Sleaze:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/29/nmps129.xml
Mind you what do expect from a labour stodge.
77 - How many recessions have the Tories predicted since 1997? And how many have there been?
Do the Tories actually want a recession now? It would be kinda handy electorally, innit?
79. I don’t speak for the tories (Very lucky for them!!!
)
It is common sense that if so much money is being taken out of peoples pockets they will have less to spend elsewhere! If people cannot get mortgages very easily or the cost goes up they will be less ionclined to move house. The multioplier affect will kick in and turn a downturn into recession.
Tyson - why are you so confident of a Democratic victory? There is an awful long way to go. And on the euro issue, presumably you acknowledge that if the currencies move the other way, Britain will benefit?
Martin - are you on your own in here?
81. It would seem that way!
At this stage, having no Republicans being able to vote will not be the drag on Obama than it would have been previously, because of those increasingly taking Limbaugh’s cue to vote for Clinton as a spoiler.
Secondly, if you had to make a ‘perfect Clinton state’, surely it would be West Virginia, even moreso than Pennsylvania?
My prediction is that the McCain/Obama match ups will reach level pegging sometime between now and when PA votes. The calls for Clinton to quit afterwards are going to be deafening.
79. One reason of hope there may be for Gordon is that the current pessimism could be over-rated. There was a statistic in Private Eye that said 55% of Iraqis were confident of the future and about 3% of Brits were. Now this was done straight after the budget. But if the predicted storms don’t materialise (a big if) and instead we’re hit by a mild drizzle, the government’s poll rating could rise back up again. It’s not all lost yet!
77 The precise economic definition of a recession is ‘two consecutive quarters of negative growth’
Growth can be measured quarter to quarter-I predict the lowest year-on year rate in the UK will be c.1.25 -1.5% from c.summer/autumn 2008 to c. summer/autumn 2009.
Whem growth falls below 2% unemployment starts to nudge up.
With the tightening of mortgage lending and other factors,I certainly foresee a ‘Feel crap’ factor for much of this year-and very possibly the Tories getting to mid,if not high 40s in national polls
84 The problem is a mild drizzle can still soak you if you can’t get to shelter (enough of that analogy)
Telegraph story on cost of mortgages
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/29/nrates129.xml
Budget tax / duty increases, costs of electricity, gas, petrol, food. Wage increases below real rate of inflation. People worried about debts and tightening their belts.
Add to that a Government that thinks the important policies are putting cigarettes under the counter, classifying games, censoring social networking web sites, talking about flags, oaths and constitutional changes.
MSNBC on why Sen Casey endorsed Obama :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23848263/
84 and instead we’re hit by a mild drizzle, the government’s poll rating could rise back up again
But then again, it could get a whole lot worse. I’m not one of those Tories who are hoping that this proves to be the case, in order to destabilise the Government, quite the opposite, but I do have a very uneasy feeling that we are not being told the whole story, particularly as regards the credit crunch and that things maybe a whole lot worse than any of us realise. You hear Brown and others saying that we face a very difficult period ahead, but this is always painted in very vague terms - why?
85. I certainly foresee a ‘Feel crap’ factor for much of this year- Yes but the tories suffered the feel crap factor almost all the way to 1997. It only started to lift in late 1996 early 1997!
88. But then again, it could get a whole lot worse. I’m not one of those Tories who are hoping that this proves to be the case, in order to destabilise the Government,
Just to make the point to Labour LD’s - I am out of work at this moment: I do not want a recession as it will mean more competition in getting the next job!
Idea for a private members bill for Nick Palmer MP:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=548728&in_page_id=1811
You know it makes sense!
88, 90. I don’t rule it out that things may get a good deal worse. To my mind it is just as likely to be worse than expected as better. What I am saying is that we shouldn’t necessarily write off the Brown government. There is some way to go.
Martin, I’m a little surprised by your ruthless honesty and desire for an economic crisis. I hope you don’t work in the security services.
92. Martin, I’m a little surprised by your ruthless honesty and desire for an economic crisis. I hope you don’t work in the security services.
????? Far from desire one! It is the last thing i want at this time!
90 Good luck in your job hunt;I hope you soon succeed
88 Part of me (as a Labour supporter about to jump off his own sinking ship :D) suspects (a)Brown does not fully know what is store himself (b)And facing severe stebacks,economically and politically,he is psychologically freezing. All his political life was building up to being the incumbent of no.10-and it is turning sour.I actually have to feel pity for anyone facing that dillema
77. Look back at party manifestos in the 1970s and you’ll find suggestions that mortgage rates be capped at certain (below market!) levels. Perhaps that idea will come back into fashion, too.
Or perhaps not
SBS I hope we can avoid a recession, but I think the pressure on the BoE to reduce rates to ease pressures, such as those reported in this story below, may lead to stagflation with a water weak pound importing ever increasing costs and no fundamental long term benefit to exports based industry and commerce.
The cost of an average mortgage has risen so fast in recent days that borrowers are paying an extra £150 a year on their mortgages compared with the start of last week, it has been disclosed.
The press story line is ‘disaster looms’ and it even infects the specialist press. Every statistic is spun negatively to match the story, and so the downward spiral of confidence goes on. And nothing the government does seems aimed to stop it.
Indeed, the ‘Crisis? What crisis?’ budget of extra taxes and extra spending seems designed to reinforce the perception that the captain and crew are asleep at their posts.
Savings are at an all time low. And yet there are still pressures to ease interest rates and so punish savers. And mortgage holders will be unlikely to benefit from any rate cut as the real cost of money is being set by the market not the MPC. All it will do is bail out greedy money men.
A further rate cut will simply be another attempt at the standard British position of looking for an easy way out. Better to follow the ECB and be determined to kill inflation as that is the real and eternal threat to a sound economy, not the temporary result of bankers’ greed.
91. On a serious point, it is interesting that this should now happen now in the wake of Islamic fundamentalism. Perhaps the Danes see this as a way of reasserting THEIR values. This won’t go down well with Muslim traditionalists.
90 - Sorry you are out of work. Martin, weren’t you recently working in financial services?
93. Sorry I misread your post.
96 That post was held in the spam filter as I used the phrase ‘h0me loan’. As the banned word list is not in alphabetical order it took some finding out.
In the end I imported the banned list and sorted it and did a document compare.
And abracadabra - h0me loan.
96 - I am pretty concerned about the threat of a recession. We’ve been all right since 1997, despite the Tories often saying recession is round the corner.
I do agree that the doomsters may be right now. I would say the chance of recession - perhaps thirty per cent - is higher than for a long time.
Grotty weather today for the boat race. Glad I am not standing by the river. Oxford have a much heavier crew so are at and advantage, though in this wind the toss could be vital.
“Feelcrap factor”.
Excellent term.
90,98 Yep, best wishes, Martin on the job front.
Good luck Martin.
OT (again) but I see from Guido that congratulations are due to Marquee Mark who has not only won Guido’s competition for a song about barring Darling from pubs but part of his lyrics were posted on the Washington Post Blog
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/offbeat/2008/03/chancellor_of_the_exchequer_al_1.html
Fourth verse (I like how he managed to get profligate in the lyrics) and chorus (to the Wild Rover)
‘ll go home to my voters, confess what I’ve done
And I’ll ask them to pardon their profligate son.
But they’ll kick out us scoundrels as oft times before
Sure I never will play the wild Chanc’llor no more.
And it’s no beer ever,
No beer never no more,
For Labour‘s game’s over
No voters no more
One of Mrs T’s achievements in her first term and into her second, was to ignore the siren call of the ‘easy option’ as she recognised that radical surgery was required and not a national happy pill which would have kept us all calm until disaster struck.
The Darling Brown axis seems unable to move out of their tax and spend mode which in times of plenty was fun and relaxing, but in times of darkening clouds seems simply thoughtless, not to say foolish.
There needs to be a message about reducing debt and increasing savings accompanying greater efficiency and competitiveness. The government failed to show the way.
If the budget had raised taxes as it did, and made at least a notional cut in expenditure so smaller deficit had a fig leaf to hide behind, then it would have been at least a gesture in the right direction.
One of my locals still hasn’t put the prices up Bass at £2.25 - you know it makes sense (the other posher one down the road is £2.65). Drink at the Unicorn, Lutterworth
101 Boat race?…..I’ve got a sinking feeling…..
Very OT - election fever yet to grip South London:
http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/display.var.2132300.0.woman_on_toilet_attacked_by_rat.php
106. A cut in public spending would have adversely affected the tractor production figures, so it was never an option.
108 Several bookmakers are offering odds of 20-1 on one (or both!) crews sinking - might be worth a couple of quid.
That song looks like a good one to be singing at the Lib Dem Glee club!
Obama’s new Pennsylvania TV ad :
http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/28/obama-up-with-new-pennsylvania-tv-ad/
106. But Thatcher was very selective about which sections of society were exposed to the full brunt of market forces.
The subsidies for the farmers stayed, and she insisted on keeping MIRAS - a subsidy for the middle classes.
103. & 104. Thank you.
98. Yes, I was always suspicious of the job due to the type of customer and the political links of the organisation, they sponser around 19 MP’s - Labour ones! It was visiting peoples homes in a post-industrial mining area - Not the most solubris houses to go into!
Well the customers all thought i was a toff who had been to Eton - Cambridge or Oxford. Shame i had not been to those institutions as i would probably never had needed to take the job!
115. sorry 29 Labour MP’s
115 - are you talking about the Co-op? I think it was you who indicated you did not like the Co-op on this site recently.
114. keeping MIRAS - a subsidy for the middle classes.
It must be pointed out that people who excercised the right to buy and climb the social ladder also benifeted from MIRAS.
117. Yep - they shafted me very well!
What i saw was terrible, i would have a good case in court.
119 - I’m sorry. I spent 9 years in financial services, most of which was dealing with business review (pension mis-selling) and complaints (endowment and investment mis-selling). It was the “toilet cleaning” end of the industry. I am glad to be out of it all.
117. I am looking forward not back to steal a phrase!
It is interesting that they do not pay FA’s the mininmum wage either! It’s some pultry figure like £6,900 - you then get validated earnings on top of that. If you don’t validate the earnings you build up what is called an industrial debt! Kind of ironic! I could have real fun with Labour and some of the things i have seen but i want to concentrate on landing a decent job!
120. What do you do now?
122 - After the bottom fell out of complaint handling, I spent a year with an insurance broker, but hated it. Now a trainee maths teacher.
123. That’s good!
I had thought about teaching but it would have to be PE or something like that as i obviously could not be an English teacher
Actually i bet i would make quite a good politics teacher or economics teacher.
Martin, I had heard that the Coop Insurance are a terrible employer and most people go after 6 months or so, but they give a good training and get jobs elsewhere quite easily.
Back in the 1990s, some other firms advised potential recruits to go and work for the Coop for a while and come back in a few months.
125. It’s funny that is exactly what everybody else has said to me! They do give good training and the reason why the people leave after 6 months is the pay has to be validated a bit after this! Unfortunatly i did not have this option - strange company! I don’t take it personally and they may have done me some good by “helping me in”!
I have had considerable interest and have sat some exams indepedently and passed, so i will find something! Went to an interview in Brum the other day and got talking to this bloke at the buffet on the train. He was saying he used to see the minister for housing on the west coast maneline. I can only think it was James Purnell or Andy Burnham - interesting that someone working on a train would recoginise a political minnow though!
The WSJ piece on Clinton is pretty devastating. The best bit is at the end:
What struck me as the best commentary on the Bosnia story came from a poster called GI Joe who wrote in to a news blog: “Actually Mrs. Clinton was too modest. I was there and saw it all. When Mrs. Clinton got off the plane the tarmac came under mortar and machine gun fire. I was blown off my tank and exposed to enemy fire. Mrs. Clinton without regard to her own safety dragged me to safety, jumped on the tank and opened fire, killing 50 of the enemy.”
Soon a suicide bomber appeared, but Mrs. Clinton stopped the guards from opening fire. “She talked to the man in his own language and got him [to] surrender. She found that he had suffered terribly as a result of policies of George Bush. She defused the bomb vest herself.” Then she turned to his wounds. “She stopped my bleeding and saved my life. Chelsea donated the blood.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html
127 and she thinks inflation is 2.5% in the UK!
127.
Any early news from Zimbabwe?
127,128,129 She wasn’t lying. see the full horror she faced in this documentary footage
http://youtube.com/watch?v=uHVEDq6RVXc&feature=related
Clinton SD lead down to 34… and yet another plan for Florida…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
127 It was fortunate they had the same blood group!
OT. If anyone is interested in Italian elections, yesterday was the last day allowed to published polls before the last 2 weeks of the campaign.
Here’re the lastest polls I saw before the deadline:
the ones I saw before the deadline
Demos
PdL 39.8
Lega+MAP 5.9
total Silvio 45.7
PD 34.8
Di Pietro 4.3
total Walter 39.1
Rainbow Left 6
UDC 5.8
Demopolis
total Silvio 44.5
total Walter 38
Rainbow Left 7
UDC 6
Euromedia
PdL 38.3
Lega 5.5
MAP 0.8
total Silvio 44.6
PD 32.2
Di Pietro 3.8
total Walter 36.1
Rainbow Left 7.8
UDC 5.1
Lorien
PdL 39.1
Lega+MAP 5.4
total Silvio 44.5
PD 32.5
Di Pietro 3
total Walter 35.5
Rainbow Left 7.2
UDC 7.1
ISPO
PdL 39.5
Lega+MAP 4.5
total Silvio 44
PD 35
Di Pietro 3.5
total Walter 38.5
Rainbow Left 7
UDC 5.5
SWG
PdL 36
Lega+MAP 7.3
total Silvio 43.3
PD 34
Di Pietro 4.3
total Walter 38.3
Rainbow Left 7.6
UDC 5.7
Demoskopea
PdL 40
Lega 5.5
MAP 0.5
total Silvio 46
PD 35
Di Pietro 2.5
total Walter 37.5
Rainbow Left 7
UDC 6
Crespi
PdL 37.2
Lega 5
MAP 1.2
total Silvio 43.2
PD 32.9
Di Pietro 4
total Walter 36.9
Rainbow Left 6.3
UDC 5.5
The Right 4
Crespi is the only one giving The Right near the threshold…other pollsters are giving them at around 2-2.5%
sorry for the long comment..I didn’t realize it was so long
134 It’s extraordinary how consistent the “total Silvio” vote appears to be, very different from what we have seen in the U.S.
130 Annoyingly the BBC “at a glance” stopped being updated over an hour ago, Looking across news sources turnout varied, number of voters disenfranchised but majority able to vote, some returning from South Africa. It all depends on the counting and the rigging Mugabe can get away with - last time some areas returned over 100% though local counts showed 70% or so.
134. Silvio, must be in a good position to get a victory there? He seems to be the only “charismatic” leader of the parties. I think the fellow is amazing from his Business empire to i think the longest serving post WW II Italian PM?
It would be a bit like Branson in this country forming a political party and winning power.
Al Gore at only 16/1 on Betfair to be Dem Nominee, where on earth does that come from??? He has to be at least 80/1.
137. It is unbelievable the way Mugabe is rigging the election - I pointed to some of Lord Malloch-Brown’s mussings on the subject on a previous thread. Interesting what i did not post was Malloch-Brown’s assertion that contingency measures were in place to stop a re-run of the “Kenyan episode” - what he meant by this makes one wonder!
meritocrat MIRA was seen as a key part of the campaign to increase home ownership. Amongst other considerations, without it the purchase of a council house would have been less attractive. MIRA for first time buyers is something the government now might consider?
The farmers were subsidised and still are, the paymaster has changed, at least indirectly. Without those subsidies farming would have been less competitive in the global market.
It is one thing to reject the soft option and quite another to cut your own economic throat.
138 - no, more like a British Murdoch.
139 Totally agree - you don’t go through the rigours the other two have had to endure over recent months, only for some Johnny-come-lately to come along and grab the prize.
I can’t believe he has any chance at all.
130
Early exit polls show 95% for Mugabe and 5% in prison.
139. I used to like the joke in 2000 about the TV. programs being hijacked by Bush and Gore!
MacCain and gore does not have quite the same ring!
141 - Thatcher scrapped tax relief on life insurance premiums. As by the mid 1980s, endowments were becoming more popular as vehicles for buying houses, this was not friendly towards aspiring homeowners.
146 SBS But very prescient considering the position of many of those people that went for endowment mortgages. And I know quite a few, and they are still ruing the day they went ahead on the spin that despite the lack of tax relief the endowment was a wonderful failsafe deal.
130.SBS I would imagine another fixed result with Mugabe winning.
Is the inflation rate there higher than Germany in the 1930`s ?
146 it was all part of 80’s thrust of Treasury economics where any tax relief was seen as subsidy - so skewing the market. Myself I’ve always been of view that its taxation that skews the market so rather than remove tax relief remove the tax. I
Thatcher put VAT on house extensions and penalised home owners wishing to improve.
But did not on new house builders her friends.
They all shaft the little person.
81- Frank Booth- number of reasons why GOP do not stand a chance this fall- Bush legacy, incumbency backlash, Iraq, fragmented and weakened GOP base facing an energised Democratic party that is hungrier for the prize than at any time since 1992. The Democrats could have won with any one of four or five candidates this year- and I have posted here many times that the Democratic primary contest was always going to be the most interesting battle. The November match up will be somewhat of a lacklustre affair. McCain is damage limitation.
Regarding the Euro- the Euro was always going to succeed as being the world’s long term bankable currency, and would have provided the UK with long term stability, comparative lower interest rates, and long term prosperity. It was obvious the early teething problems would sort themselves out.
Instead we are left with sterling a speculative and weak currency, higher interest rates, and instability. And for what? An irrational debate, much like seanT’s rantings on the treaty which is not worth engaging with.
147 - I know, I spent three years handling complaints on endowment mis-sales.
Financial servies regulation has always been badly done in the UK. Back in the 1980s selling was a licence to print money and there were few controls. Now it takes a mountain of paperwork to insure a car, or a holiday, but the FSA does not notice a bank going under.
Look to Europe… most countries do it better!
A random riddle that someone on PB might be able to answer.
Local government elections in the UK - the candidate lives in the ward in which she is standing - can she nominate herself?
153 - surely not!
151. What I don’t quite understand Tyson is that during the primaries we were hearing repeated reports of huge Democrat turnout often more than double the size of turnout among Republicans. Yet at the same time the Republican candidate seems to be consistently ahead of both Democratic hopefuls in the tracker polls.
What’s the best explanation? Is the fightout between Obama and Clinton harming the Democrats that much? Has the nation warmed to McCain all of a sudden? Are those that take part in Primaries hopelessly unrepresentative of the electorate and those polled? I don’t have a clue and would be keen to hear from others, particularl