Are Labour’s YouGov smears affecting the betting?
March 31st, 2008
Should you be capitalising on the lies about the 2004 polls?
The Labour spin machine has gone into overdrive today to try to discredit the latest YouGov poll that shows Ken Livingstone again facing a double digit polling deficit in his battle with Boris Johnson.
A statement by the party said: “…YouGov has a record of significantly underestimating Ken Livingstone’s vote in London. On the day before the last Mayoral election YouGov put put Ken Livingstone just two per cent ahead of the Conservative Steve Norris, leading to an Evening Standard headline of ‘It’s Neck and Neck’ even although Livingstone actually won by nearly 11 per cent.”
This is a fabrication by the party and should be dismissed. The facts are that on the day before the 2004 vote the Evening Standard carried a report of a YouGov survey which found that amongst all potential electors Livingstone was beating Norris by 37% to 26%. When the second preference votes were taken into account, YouGov found a split of 55% to 45%. The actual result after the second preferences were counted was Livingstone 55.4% to Norris’s 44.6% - which meant that YouGov was right to within 0.8%
These figures are directly comparable with the poll that is out today. YouGov has by far the best record of any pollster London in mayoral elections in spite of what Labour chooses to say. In 2004 the only other firm to carry out a surveys before the election, Populus, found a 58% to 42% split in Ken’s favour.
Given the polling the betting story of the day is the way Ken’s price has held up. Clearly there are a lot of punters out their who are gambling not to make money but to show their support for their allegiance - the technical betting term is “mugs”. My guess is that they are being fuelled by Labour’s lies.
The latest prices are Boris 0.45/1 and Ken 2.25/1.
Mike Smithson
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[from previous thread]
One of the reasons for Boris’s “inexplicable” popularity - for lefties like NickP, Roger, et al - is, I think, precisely because BoJo says politically incorrect things.
I know bien pensants think it’s a killer blow, when they unearth some very non PC remark from Boris’s past (”blacks with water melon smiles” etc etc) but I strongly suspect that this technique backfires. i.e. When the people are reminded of something outrageous Boris has said, they merely warm to him all the more - as being more human, and maybe more honest, than most politicians.
Lefties delude themselves in thinking that everyone shares their shrill disapproval of rightist thoughtcrime; in reality, most people are weary and enervated by lefty political correctness, but dare not admit it.
That’s one reason Boris is doing surprisingly well, I reckon. He’s the acceptable way to thumb your nose at the liberal-left Establishment.
I swear Mike’s being paid by the Tories, either that or you’re very worried about the amount you’ve put on Boris and are doing everything in your power to help him win. I’m sorry, I still reckon Ken will do it. There is no better campaigner out there.
“There is no better campaigner out there.”
Not much sign of that this cycle.
3. There is a whole month to go, Andrew. If Boris keeps hiding away from the electortae, it will expose him for the no-ideas, unfit to run London, scaredy cat he really is.
1 - re Bozza’s unPC comments. Reminds me a bit of Prince Philip, who is a dear old thing, n’est-ce pas?
What would happen if Matt O’Coonor wins? Who would Labour prefer Boris or Matt? Will Matt take mainly Tory votes or Labour votes? Hard to say, but I hope he does well. English Republican Movement here we come.
An unusually agressive post Mike. Maybe the people betting on Ken just think he still has a good chance. No silly me, they’re showing their ’support’ by throwing their money away.
It’s AV so people can vote for with their heart and their head.
Are they trying to make Ken supporters complacent?
So, what’s the point of a smear?
Odd. :-S
Odd :O :0 :S
7 - Matt’s chances are similar to those of - and I will use the line again - Amy Winehouse’s chances of becoming pope.
10. Matt?
11: Best post you’ve ever made, Al Fresco.
12 - EDP or BNP or something I think. francis, if you read his posts, keeps mentioning him.
10 Same with the Lib Dem candidate, and Matt O’Connor will push you into fourth or even fifth behind the BNP!
Mike
We are dealing here with political parties; telling porkies is the currency they spend, the very air they breathe. Labour lies, Tories lie, even the sweetest of sweet Liberal Democrats lie.
They all went to the Josef Goebbels Academy of PR.
Malcolm
14. Matt O’Connor is standing for the English Democrats Party (EDP). We have absolutely nothing in common with the unionist BNP.
I think his price has held up because people expect the poll to narrow particularly as Ken is now the underdog. Boris has improved his position by 12 points in a month and by the same token Ken can do the same. As an opponent I can’t think of anyone better suited to the next months battle than Ken. Appointing Lynton Crosby strikes me as an odd move. His campaign for Michael howard couldn’t have been worse and it’s ultra right-wingery plays right into the hands of Ken’s narrative.
This campaign hasn’t started yet so fasten your seatbelts-you’re in for a bumpy ride!
13 LOL
15 - want to bet on that? Bet you a tenner at evens that Paddick beats the EDP!
5. I think it depends on how far the comments go. If they are comments that genuinely betray a racist attitude, most people will be turned off. If they are comments that clearly weren’t meant to be nasty, but were a bit of a faux pas, the public don’t like it, but they rally to the guy’s corner when they become crucified by the media.
re 2. J you ought to read the comments here by YouGov’s Peter Kellner who is hardly a friend of the Tories. In fact he is married to a Labour minister.
http://www.mayorwatch.co.uk/article.php?slug=Livingstone-Campaign-Question-Opinion-Poll&article_id=1470
Telling lies about polls pisses me off big time whoever is doing it. I’ve launched into all parties at different times about this.
It usually comes when politicians are desperate and can smell defeat.
20 Yes I do.
First stage of defeat = denial.
test
The picture isnt flattering. Flanked by his personal bodyguards in the DayGlo uniform of NuLabour security services, Ken looks a sad shuffling, shabby figure.
17. Except for being a no-hope protest party that is
like Michael Foot…or Ad0lf Hit1er in his last days
spam filter doesnt like links to Hit1er looking sick and old
27 The EDP party are the only serious party putting England’s interests first. The Tories proposed English Grand Committee is just a talking shop and it won’t work. English independence is the only way to solve the West Lothian Question.
The truth is a lot of us on this site are aggrieved by blatant misuse of polls, whatever the party. Mike is right on this. Labour’s reputation is strongly damaged already. No one disputes this. Labour has now just flushed it down the toilet.
Mike is objective, millions visit this site. On the mayor polls Mike himself states that its still an open election in that ‘a lot could happen in the next month’, on yesterday’s story. So let’s be fair. Mike has called it right. This misuse of opinion polls are unnacceptable Labour lies.
13 Listen to the silence…Read between the lines…If you want to know the truth, see what isnt said.
29 An English Republic would be the next stage and we’ll abolish the discrimatory Act of Settlement. I just hope Catholics sue under human rights legislation in the European Court.
8. It ain’t AV. It’s SV, which by some measures is worse even than FPTP..
23 - you’re on. To clarify - You will owe me £10 if Paddick beats the EDP candidate in the London mayoral election. If the EDP candidate beats Paddick, I give you £10.
What do we do next? Email Peter the Punter?
30. That’s all fair enough but it’s a bit much calling people ‘mugs’ for betting on Livingstone. Were people mugs for betting on Boris when he was behind in the polls?
It is really crass of Paddick to spurn a vote from a Tory. Especilaly from a real gent like Dominic Grieve.
That will be out and about in the leafier suburbs in no time.
[32] I dont think they care. Pay homage to Ceasar and all that…
34. Yes
If The Standard printed a headline on the eve of the ‘04 election saying ‘neck and neck’ based on a Yougov poll which had Ken 10 points ahead surely it’s the Standard that has some explaining to do not the labour Party
38 - actually we email mike. Click on recorded wagers on the side and there is an email link to contact mike. I’m doing it now, but you will need to confirm to mike by email too.
[33] Ok. But still, what’s the point?
It isnt going to frighten Labour voters out because the big floppy hair white Boris rabbit monster will eat them.
They are frozen like a deer in car headlights and denial is all the fight they have.
40 will do it soon.
1: ‘Lefties delude themselves in thinking that everyone shares their shrill disapproval of rightist thoughtcrime’
Very true. Lefties also delude themselves into thinking that Blair’s election victories showed the Great British public had somehow come round to agreeing with their dogma. Utter rubbish, of course: Blair only won because people thought he was a non-Tory conservative. The current incumbent is wholly incapable of this sort of myth making (or no one believes him), hence Labour’s dismal poll showing and inevitable defeat at the next General Election.
21. Yes, but that’s the nub, isn’t it? What is racist and what isn’t? We all forget that the average voter is way to the right of most politicians - on things like immigration, race, identity etc.
So what the left would perceive as an outrageous remark might strike many voters as being just honest.
I imagine many people quietly agreed, for instance, with the notorious Spectator piece which accused Scousers of being whinging grief-merchants. And these same people probably disliked the way BoJo was then made to grovellingly apologise for his intrinsic evil, like some wretchedly elitist Shanghai schoolmaster during the Cultural Revolution.
re 35. I started out in November backing Ken at 0.56/1 - see
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/
Things have changed a lot since then. Those who follow my betting know that I do make big switches when the occasion arises
42 -done. Mike’s on holiday, so it may take a while to sort out.
Thanks.
45, 46 - evidently a busman’s holiday!
Caption Competition :
Mike Smithson’s Poll Police Arrest A Notorious Offender !!
39. It must be because it has never been known for the Labour Party to spin anything to meet their agenda, has it? So of course Labour never has to explain anything…..
Incidentally isn’t there a Comres poll due sometime shortly?
36
Probably the camp commander throwing a tantrum because of his crap performance,lower ratings than Susan Krammer takes some doing.
Inject former ministers who criticise the Gov. with rabies says Labour MP.
That will teach them!
Kramer did OK, given that Ken was an Independent. Simon Hughes, who was a known London figure, did poorly in the circumstances.
43 Surely not.
Brown is a weak-kneed Tory from my point of view. When Cameron is elected he’ll be to the left of Brown.
Malcolm
re 39. There is something in what you say - the Evening Standard does not come out of this well. But to launch into YouGov in the way Labour has done today they should have checked the facts - simple. Just like Hillary should have checked whether others would known about the conditions of her 1996 Bosnia trip when she started making claims about it.
re 50. I’m expecting the ComRes poll at any time. It could be tonight but no sign of it so far.
44. I did feel the media made way too much of those Liverpool remarks, but I don’t think Johnson was right. Seemed to me that the Liverpudlians were very stoic about the whole thing.
44. I think you do your fellow Londoners a disservice if you think they will be as approving of the word piccaninny as you. Being right wing doesn’t necessarily make people offensive.
Yes, the attack on Yougov was very weak. I believe that my post in the penultimate thread demolished Livingstone’s argument.
Shooting the messanger does smack of desperation. If Livingstone’s private polling was better, he’d release the details.
35. People are mugs when they take bets at what appear to be very poor value odds. At present, I have backed Boris to win, both because I think he will and because the odds were attractive (odds-against, no less). However, were someone to offer me 100/1 for Ken, I’d bite their hand off to take the bet, despite the fact that I still think he’ll lose.
The evidence from the polls suggests that Boris is in a very strong position. Not unassailable, but very strong. For Ken to be only 9/4, four weeks out and with a double digit deficit, suggests that there are still a lot of people who are indulging in wishful thinking. I’d have thought he should be at least 5/1.
57 I think the point is that they’re not as disapproving as you are (or all the other people who went into a frenzy about Johnson’s comments).
Labour and Livingstone are clearly rattled. They are obviously blaming the messenger (YouGov) and not listening to the message (they are going to lose unless they change the way they are conducting this campaign)
I remember it wasn’t that many years ago they it was Conservatives desperatly trying to dismiss the opinion polls that consistently showed them losing. How times change.
57. It all depends on context doesn’t it? He actually said “It is said that the Queen has come to love the Commonwealth, partly because it supplies her with regular cheering crowds of flag-waving piccaninnies.”
He’s suggesting that’s how the Queen thinks of them, not himself. It’s as if I said “The European Union hates referenda - they don’t want to deal with the petty, reactionary plebs.” It doesn’t mean I think the people of Europe are petty, reactionary plebs, I’m suggesting the EU considers them thus.
For a sense of New Labour’s anti-Boris panic, this Guardian piece does the job nicely:
http://tinyurl.com/yo8r4v
I like the way the old Etonian eco-snob Jonathan Porritt seeks, in his bewildered incomprehension, to blame it all on the nasty taxi drivers.
Those awful chavs! Not voting the way we want! Ugh!
60. Precisely. As ever, the hapless retiree Rogerdamus misses the point by a couple of kilometres. The point is not whether Boris’s remarks were ill-advised or not, just that most people dislike the shrillness of the left on matters of race and right-on-ness.
Certainly, judging by the polls, people are ready to cut Boris quite a lot of slack.
57
I can understand that the usual band of PC lefties don’t like it but most people seem to hate PC even more which in reality is just another form of censorship by the left.
Harman’s first PMQ’s will likely be against William Hague and now it seems certainly Vince Cable.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/584256/harman-vs-cable.thtml
No doubt Harriet will find out where the trap door is…..
57. Roger, I suspect that well over 90% of the population in London or elsewhere in the UK would not be remotely bothered by the use of that word, simply because they will be unaware of what it means or why it is perceived to be offensive (as an aside, at what point in the process does a word cease to be offensive when its usage drops so far out of circulation that it is no longer understood?). I’m only aware of it because I looked it up in a dictionary during the discussion on here a few weeks ago about Powell’s Rivers of Blood speech.
55. Talking of which. Interesting……
Ananova “The ComRes poll for The Independent put David Cameron’s party on 38% - down three points on a similar survey last month - with Labour on 31% (up one) and Liberal Democrats on 17% (unchanged)”.
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_2792892.html?menu=
OT - from Mrs Dale’s Diary
“Iain Dale 9:09 PM
On my American Express bill that arrived today is the less than tempting invitation to…
Upgrade the way you travel at Heathrow Terminal 5
The world can be be a busy, stressful place. Especially when you are tryng to get somewhere. But at Terminal 5 its a different world. Whether you’re flying from, into or simply transfering through London Heathrow, with Terminal 5 you’ll find it effortless,exciting and enjoyable.”
Com Res poll details are here - looks like 38 / 31 / 17 - at very bottom.
63. You know what the problem is with the left? They think they have a god given right to govern. They think they are so right in everything they say and do, they can’t comprehend why anybody would actually think of voting for someone other than the Labour candidate. Their arrogant complacency is betrayed by their total bewilderment that they are about to lose power (first Livingstone, then Brown)
It really is amusing to think how the left rightly lambasted the Tories in the 90’s for their arrogance, and to now see that they themselves have fallen victim to this dangerous complacency.
Leftwingers need to remember that no political party can govern forever. Not even Labour.
44 Remember that Boris didn’t write that that piece just refused to grass up the ‘culprit’.
57 oh please Roger, you are an urbane sophisticate and well capable of reading and understanding what Boris wrote - these idiotic gross caricatures of his words should be beneath a proper upper middle class leftie like you. It’s almost as bad as Ken comparing Boris to Richard Nixon - I mean ow desperate is that!
OT but we have had no film reccommendations recently so could I reccommend the Itailian film ‘After Midnight’ - set in the National Film Musuem in Turin. Not as much fun as ‘Night at the Museum’ but much artier and with more naked female bodies. Angel the central character is a great study in being a loveable rogue.
69 - glad to see the LDs maintaining the 17……
Interesting ComRes poll. Labour going nowhere, but no sign of the Tories Budget Bounce that ICM and YouGov found. A straw for Labour to cling to, anyway.
71
The ‘night in the museum’ manager has recently become my near neighbour.
Small world and all that.
Back on topic
Livingstone on the bbc saying another poll coming out on thursday.
74. Presumably this one will be more favourable to him?
55. Mike. Have you gone in again on Boris at current odds? Also would you agree with David’s suggestion that Livingstone chances are 5/1 and so Boris’ 1/5?
A complete demolition of Ken Livigstones arguement by Anthony Wells;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Thats the end of that, then.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 39.8 .. Lab 32% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 10.2%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 308 seats .. Lab 262 .. LibDem 47 .. Others 33.
Con 18 seats short of a majority.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
74
My guess is yes better poll coming, my gut tells me Boris should be at about +8% but KL did say polls bounce around and also attacked the bbc for not wanting to talk about policy. He sounded awful and droning.
He needs to pronounce ‘media’ correctly instead of ‘meeja’!
What was Comres last time? Isnt it the poll data usually the least favourable to the Tories
John Simpson seems to think Mugabe has shaved it. There’s a surprise.
70 - As a Labour supporter I fully expect us to lose the next election. Whenever any party is in power for a long period complacency and arrogance slips in. I don’t see how that is exclusive to the Left.
72 17 with Comres is 20/21 with ICM weighting instead of Comres weighting - see Anthony Wells article last month
59. David. Remember the campaign only started this week. 5/1 would be insane.
66. Dunno what dictionary that was. Piccanniny is derived from “pequen ninho” which is simply Portuguese for small child. The word is still in common use throughout the world. There is nothing intrinsically “racist” about it.
80 - No becasue they have a stringent liklihood to vote test. They are more volatile. Their last poll had a Con lead of 11% which was higher than any of the other pollsters at the time.
The ComRes figures actually show Labour ahead in the range of voters they look at (weighted sample, certainty to vote 5-10 out of 10) - the 6% Tory lead comes entirely from far more certainty to vote (lots of 10 out of 10s vs 5 out of 10s for Labour). But the contrast to YouGov is too stark for them both to be correct.
82. It isn’t exclusive to the left. As I posted, its amusing how the left attacked the Tories in the 90’s for their arrogance, only to now be just as arrogant and remote. In 10 years time, we’ll probably have a Conservative government being attacked by Labour for their arrogance and so it goes one….
81. On this we can agree: what an unpleasant c*** Robert Mugabe is.
89 HERE HERE
88 - But that’s the job of the opposition.
Bit of an embarassment for Barack Obama today. He’s been trying to break into the working class white vote by going round bars, diners etc. Unfortunately he also tried his hand at that common game in the Appalachian region: bowling. He got a 37 including alleying several balls!
Ouch!
85. Ludicrous!. You could say the same for Nig**r or even cu*t both of which have perfectly understandable origins. Nonetheless only a fool would now think they aren’t offensive.
Incidentally, 31% is Labour’s “highest” ComRes score since October (when they were on 33%) All other polls since have had them flatlining on 30% - Unfortunatly this 1% increase is within the margin of error.
ComRes’s January poll had the Tories down to 38%, but the February poll put them back up to 41%, so we’ll see where the Conservatives are with ComRes in April.
Mrs Clinton takes another hit on the ‘Slate’ ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ :
http://www.slate.com/id/2187793/
94 As always Comres have higher % for Others than the other pollsters .
89. Don’t say that, or we might have to take the word c*** out of the English language, since you have used it an a derogatory way against a black person. It therefore must be an intrinsically “racist” word….
93. Roger, you should remember that Rod thinks the Holocaust was a bit of a fabrication before you try to rationally engage on this issue. I would agree that it’s a poor argument however.
But you never responded to my point at 62.
76 Statistically, David is probably about right, but the polling evidence so far has been pretty thin, so I wouldn’t go quite so skinny on Boris as he does, nor quite so generous on Ken. The current odds of 0.5/1 von Boris look quite generous to me - but apart from my handicapped bet today with Henry, I’m not planning on doing any more, having backed Boris at an effective 2-1 on Spreafair’s 25-10-0 index about 2 months ago.
New thread - Seven Daves from ComRes.
Thanks
Double Carpet
70 “left? They think they have a god given right to govern. They think they are so right in everything they say and do”
Thats where the term Politically Correct comes from.
The most logical explanation for labour’s meteoric rise in the Com Res poll is Brown’s Baiser avec Bruni which is already being compared to Robert Doisneau’s famous photo of the 50’s
O/T - Clinton losing celebs now.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/31/50-cent-no-longer-supports-clinton/
89 Ken Livingstone would say that you attack is clearly racially motivated.
79. Ken questioning the opinion polls is a waste of time even if there is truth in it which there doesn’t appear to be. I still think we need to see some more polls though.
The BBC complaint though probably comes from the interview he did last week on BBC London. She didn’t ask Ken a single question about his policies.
That’s that world famous BBC pro-Labour bias again.
93 I understand it comes from spanish for ‘black’ and is in common use amongst blacks.
Woger. You should tell blacks to stop using the word n1gger. Or perhaps your rules only apply to white people.
105 Dont worry, you wont have to defend the BBC for too long.
If some people on this blog have little understanding as to why some brainwashed lefties still seem to believe the media are right wing. Or even more stupidly think that most people that describe themselves as C/conservatives or Tories for some strange reason they never bother to explain, desperately want to enslave their fellow man, while happily eating third world babies for breakfast. Maybe this will help.
The MSM and especially the BBC are fascist. All of it without exception, from the Daily Mail to the Guardian. They are just two cheeks of the same FASCIST backside, and Galloway and Livingstone wonderfully represent the nonsensical shit that comes out between them.
Fascism is a belief that Corporate Capitalism in bed with democratic government can create a internationalist authoritarian socialist utopia, from the top down. Controlled by plainly undemocratic world institutions such as the EU and The UN. The methods by which this is to be achieved are the following. Destroying normal family life, real education, small business, and ultimately property rights, the peoples independent free will, and it that don’t work, by destroying the people themselves.
Conservatism along with its estranged father libertarianism, which is often barely on speaking terms with the Conservative Party. Believe in free market economics regulating all forms of large, medium, and small business, common law, individual freedom with personal responsibility, watched over by minimal and as local as possible government. With new laws inspired as much as possible from the bottom up.
Which is not supposed to end up being any type of utopia. Just considered by lovers of liberty to be by far the best way of doing things for almost everyone, most of the time, firmly based on past experience, and an understanding of human nature.
Socialists that deny that their particular form of socialism is somehow different, and so not at all fascist. Are simply just mentally challenged middle and upper class lazy bums, with massive superiority complexes. IMO
Gordon Brown, is not therefore a conservative, he is a Fascist pure and simple. You only have to read his speeches, note his actions, and stop paying any attention the BBC or the rest of our establishment controlled MSM, to know this.
What Cameron is however only time will tell. I personally make no predictions, the proof of a Conservative governments pudding is always in its eating. Cameron and Johnson both claim to be libertarians at heart. Soon we will see for ourselves if this is so.
Francis the English Dims will not even save there deposit in the Mayor race. Remember just a few months back you were beaten by the raving loonies and now you talk to beating the lib dems i think your going to be a broken man on May 1st/2nd
What were the first preferences in the you gov poll in 2004?