Boris with 10-point lead in new You Gov poll
March 31st, 2008
Boris 47, Ken 37, Brian 10 - Boris leads 56-44 after second preferences
A new poll out today for the Evening Standard / ITV London Tonight shows Boris Johnson, who officially opened his campaign today, with a 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone, while the Lib Dems’ Brian Paddick trails on 10% of first preferences.
After re-allocating second preferences, this translates into a 12-point lead for Boris of 56-44, or a swing of about 11% from the performance of Steve Norris in 2004. Full details of the poll are here.
Latest prices are here - and Boris has already moved in four basis points to 1.43 now that a second poll has given him a big lead. With just over a month to go, Ken has it all to do.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
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On another political forum the left-leaning contributors have suddenly decided that Boris winning will be a great result for Labour.
Curiously, this collective opinion only formed once Livingston’s fragile polling position became obvious.
So, looks like the Labour/Green alliance has had no beneficial effect at all on the polls. Not surprising - when the hard-left comes together they don’t create an appealing prospect, and actually put many people off…
2. Is it ‘hard left’ to believe in the Kyoto agreement?
It looks like Boris is about to become the first senior British politican with a large Youtube presence. Is this an indication of the future?
I think the next general election may well be the first one where communicating via Youtube plays a critical part in getting a message across. It will also give us a new indicator in addition to opinion polls on whether the message is getting through. Maybe we should have a thread discussing this.
From the previous thread, wrt Livingstone’s attempt to rubbish this poll
“240 Yougov have not given details of their weighting for ethnic minorities, so I don’t know where Livingstone is coming from.
None of the other criticisms hold water.
(a) turnout won’t be 60%, but opinion polls always find more people saying they’ll vote than actually turn out. A reduced turnout will almost certainly favour the party that has least difficulty getting its supporters out - the Conservatives.
(b) Others will get more than 5% for the Mayoralty, but at the moment, Johnson, Livingstone, and Paddick benefit from name recognition. Others will take as many votes off Livingstone as Johnson.
(c) Livingstone undoubtedly will get more votes than Labour does. However, the result of the question on the Assembly partly reflects name recognition (see above) and also doesn’t distinguish between constituency and list votes. Obviously, Others will get a lot more than 6% of the vote, but this will come from Labour as well as Conservatives.
(d) Johnson has had a consistent lead among young voters, and the elderly. It’s the middle-aged who favour Livingstone.
3. No just ignorant stupidity
I am in an odd position, because although I dislike Livingstone as a person, I think he has been a good Mayor for the last few years. The reason I will probably not come out and vote for him is the arrogance and corruption surrounding the Lee Jasper affair. That concerns me greatly, as power that believes itself unaaccountable is where things usually go wrong.
I don’t know if I will actually vote for Boris, as I’m not convinced that he is up to the job yet - an £11 bn per annum budget is massive, and the final responsibility lies with him, even if other people spend it.
What I find interesting is that I know no-one outside of my political circle of friends who could even name Lee Jasper, or cares about the scandal. They don’t hate Ken, though are a little underwhelmed. What has cost Livingstone this election is a general feeling that ‘it’s time for a change’ and ‘they’ve been there so long, they’ve got complacent with our money’ - which is aimed more at the PLP than the Mayor, but is dragging him down too.
If Labour were doing ok nationally, or Cameron was not the Tory leader, I don’t think we’d be seeing these poll numbers - Livingstone seems to be the victim of a national malaise, incidental to his own recent perfidy, and that is why he will lose.
Sean,
You could add to (d), and the elderly are much more likely to vote see (a) above.
Here are a couple of Youtubes of Boris
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=emPJE8q8Gtk
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA
Youtube is the future!
It intersting to me that all the Tories on here are excited about the prospect of a Boris victory. The man has no relevant experience and his character is questionable (Michael portillo was hardly excited about a Boris victory on TW). Thye guy is a seriously loose cannon and I’m not convinced CCHQ will be able to control him that rigidly once he’s in office. If he wins, how is Cameron to keep him on a leash?
8 Most of Livingstone’s criticisms of Yougov actually imply that he should be doing worse than Yougov show.
10 I’m more excited about the prospect of Livingstone being beaten.
Well, 56-44 isn’t irretriviable. It’s certainly not so bad that Ken’s team will be giving up with a month to go.
The one positive Livingstone can take is that now Boris is clearly percieved as being ahead, some of the focus has to switch to Boris’s agenda in the final weeks. If Johnson can hold it together and communicate it effectively that might help him, but it might also remind “soft” pro ken/anti-tory voters that this election is a choice, not a referendum.
On a seperate note, Does anyone find the LD 1st round numbers hard to believe? Paddick strikes me as being a much more effective candidate that Susan Kramer was in 2000, and there’s one less “big” candidate than then, so why is he at 10% when she got 12% and Hughes got almost 15%?
10, if a loose cannon he’s done a good job of hiding it so far.
14. Apparently he’s been banned from drinking.
13. ‘Paddick strikes me…’
and what makes you think your view is in any way more representative than that of a properly conducted poll?
13 - Big name squeeze, even today in the Standard they misspell his name as Paddock! Plus one could also argue that the party he represents is less popular now than in 2000 of 2004.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential Poll for Washington State :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 43%
McCain 43% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/washington_presidential_election
13/17 - Also there’s much more of an “anyone but Ken” feel this time around, which will benefit Boris at the expense of minor parties.
12% is grim but not beyond hope. I think ken might be a bit like Hillary in that a spell as the under dog might (a) make people look at Boris very closely (b) allow ken to define/redefine him self.
It is of course rubbish for labour supporters to say they would welcome a Boris victory.
A Boris victory would be a massive massive morale boast to the tories who despite good opinion polls and reasonable local election sucess have not really believed yet that the electorate will vote for them again in such numbers as to bring down the labour government. A Boris victory would signal that this is the case imo
5. Sean, You know far more about polling than I do, so perhaps you or some other knowlegable type person can answer this question for me..
When dealing with a race like the mayor of London, how do pollsters deal with the various ethnic groups?
If (for example) 5% of London’s population are bangladeshi muslim and abother 5% are west african and another 5% indian hindu would they lump them all together as “ethnic minority” or treat them as discreet groups?
Also, do they upweight whatever respondents they get or overquota so they get a good reflection of the groups internal views? I can see risks with doing the former, but the latter would presumablly be very expensive.
Can we have a seperate thread for all these boring US polls. I don’t hijack US threads so I wish you wouldn’t these…
22. Oh dear, some pretty desperate straw clutching going on here…
as to the evidence many use that Boris is too jovial and immature for the job (ie Have I got news for you) , how do you get through to some people on the left that you can be witty, funny, carefree on a comedy television programme and still do a serious job when not on it?
Well i hope Boris wins!!! Big style! Please see my contribution at the end of the toffs thread to see why! I cannot believe people in this country are boxed into class warfare in this day and age. I suffer from this “prejudice” despite not having attended public school or red brick university. I have been bullied, ridiculed in most of my employment. Time for the real toffs to strike back and those of us damaged by proxy given a motivational boost!
Livingstone deserves to be kicked out as he is yesterdays man.
23 Zzzzzzzz. One post is hardly a ‘hijack’ of a thread.
Neither has this site ever adopted thread fascism. So if your brain isn’t able to cope with skipping the odd post I suggest you emmigrate to ConHome !!
O/T
This is rather amusing - I cut all public services and increased defence spending, law and order massively!
Incidentally today is the anniversary of the last time Ken’s hands were removed from the power levers of London.
Going O/T the next edition of GQ looks like a hoot Nick Clegg makes a complete prat of himself.
28. Sorry i did not put link:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/fixed_article/0,,91211-1286478,00.html
27. We dont want him there..send him to LibDem voice for the truly brain dead..
18 its a poll showing a state that one candidate can win and another can’t and its this dynamic that will eventually sink one candidate or another so I think its very relavent!
My own view is after tommorrow it will be impossible to stop Hillary going onto pennsylvania because of the “its only 3 weeks, let the people decide” argument.
22 I don’t know if Yougov weight by ethnicity. It may be that if you weight by the various factors they list (age and gender, social class, party identification, newspaper readership) then additional weighting by ethnicity is unnecessary. Anthony Wells, I’m sure, would know the answer to your question.
One obvious difficulty about weighting by ethnicity is that while 30% or so of London’s population come from ethnic minorities, the proportion of London’s population who are qualified to vote, registered to vote, and will actually turn out in a local election, from ethnic minorities, is going to be much less than that. I would guess that getting on for 80% of voters on May 1st will be white.
If you look at the poll details, you can see evidence of “Kick Ken Out”.
Of the first prefs : 22% of Labour support is going to vote for Boris and…
amazingly 40% of LibDem support is going to vote Boris, more than plan to vote for Paddick (31%).
Those numbers are voting against Ken.
test
31 JH. ‘LibDem Voice’ …. cruel and unusual punishment indeed !!
For those interested in the fight for those vital Lib Dem 2nd preferences…
You can see Sean Fear and me battle it out on Julian Harris blog
http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/
Good Stuff!
4. Yes I agree. The potential for ‘unauthorised’ attack ads will be an interesting new dynamic. Not sure if it will wholly particularly positive.
22 ‘discreet’ they may be but for statistical purposes the discrete segments are I believe broken down at the top level gender and general ethnicity. It’s why we have Operation Black Vote and not Operation Bangladeshi Muslim Women.
Ken needs to get his head down and take his opponent more seriously and sell a positive message.
4 weeks isn’t long to change minds but he can still do it. I doubt if he will; he seems to resent the idea of anyone else being Mayor to do the things that are needed.
Boris will be a much more able Mayor than his detractors are prepared to countenance - largely because he won’t micromanage.
33. Thanks for the response - i suppose I’m too used to US polls saying things like “Obama wins upper class african-amercan women with a graduate education by 20 points, while Hillary wins middle class latinos with a high school education by 30 points and John McCains ahead with 30-45 year old Asian-Americans with a PHD in computing and paid off mortgages”
Do we know who the Tories are unleashing against the venerable Harriet at PMQs yet?
29. At least it gives us an excuse for buying it.
“Honest, dear, I only get it for the politics”
Mabe Hage will break her in and pound her into the ground?
41.Maybe Hague will break her in and pound her into the ground?
39. I saw my mistake it after i posted and nearly gagged myself. Ugh horrible error!
6. Quite right. Every major scientific academy says Kyoto isn’t nearly enough to address the problem.
40 IMO, both Yougov and ICM are far more reliable than any US pollster.
42 - Well quite, personally I can’t wait to see the full details of Clegg’s crossdressing and claims to be a political Casanova.
Clegg is even worse than skeleton!
48. Judging by the exerpts from the Times :
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/03/nick-clegg-talk.html
be prepared to cringe.
(I am preparing myself for someone to tell me that article is all one giant spoof. Please, please tell me it’s one giant spoof?!)
If you could discribe the main candidates as an alcholic drink:
Livingstone - Malt Whisky!
Johnson - Slippery nipple!
Paddick - Pink Pussey!
I’d missed this great Boris clip.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6wrSUeDxBhg&feature=related
22. It is standard practice in market research to enforce a quote on market researchers, these quotas are necessary to stop market research been entirely dominated by non working women with young children (the kind of people who are in during the day).
Quotas in london due to the variable turnouts and fixed voting patterns by ethnicity are almost certain…. This can be done more discreetly by making sure that samples are taken from specific post code areas.
Clegg i/v preview
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/03/nick-clegg-talk.html
50 - Well it isn’t April 1st until tomorrow!
20. “I think ken might be a bit like Hillary..”
Yes he could try crying in public I suppose
46. I’m sorry if I missed it, but Johnson isn’t in favour of some kind of Kyoto-plus is he? I placed him close to the Dubya view of it.
He looks like Frank Spencer - come to think about with a name like Calimighty Clegg: He is Frank Spencer. If i were the Tories i would send people following playing the Some mothers do have them theme. After all that “Cock-up” with the european treaty was a typical Frank Spencer trait- tried off repairing or mitigating a problem and ended up completley wiping the initial problem out!
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/03/nick-clegg-talk.html
54. Dear me. I read that article earlier and my first response was not let’s make that man Prime Minister.
Interestingly enough Clegg has a good side kick:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/03/lembit-opik-fai.html
OT. Was just checking the Assembly candidates list, and as for obvious reasons, I am interested in candidates with unusual names, I was delighted to see a certain Janus Polenceus as candidate for the “English Democrats”.
(afaik, the English democrats aren’t an actively racist party, I just found it childishly amusing. The melting pot is alive and well and living in lambeth and Southwark!)
59. I should not worry - he is unlikely to be in parliament after the next election!
Why doesn’t the spam filter trap the “Martin Day” caricature?
O/T Sarko speaking English.
(You can see why he used French during his recent trip)
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_Vq_1xt6vuY
47. Indeed - all that apparent detail and they still get the big questions wrong. President Kerry, anyone?
54. His only saving grace was that it’s not as bad as Hain’s interview with the Mail during the labour deputy leadership contest or that interview with David Davis’ wife during the Tory leadership race.
59. There have been ‘complaints,’ about Mr Clegg’s ability, apparently. (We’re not talking about his ability to run the country here either!)
The mind boggles.
5 - fair post Sean.
I’m taking this poll with a pinch of salt as Sean says, there is no way that Boris and Ken will pick up 84% of the vote between them.
I think the problem that YouGov (or indeed any pollster) is likely to have this far out is to explain the two stage voting system. I think by asking a question about a first vote/second vote it simply confuses the issue at this stage by making people think about their voting tactics.
A straight forward ‘how will you vote in the London Mayor election?’ would more acurately elicit the first vote shares.
On a the previous thread Mike was speculating that Labour’s provate polling showed Boris ahead too. I’d heard from a well placed Labour source that none has been done - it’s why the campaign is so unfocussed and is likely to bring Ken’s vote down to the Labour level rather than the other way round.
63 - I think it would cause too much work for site admins
Ken is working class white Londoner No wonder the tories and the BNP hate him. LOL.
[55] - Oh, so *that’s* the reason for the delay in the Zimbabwe election results. I never realised Mugabe had a sense of humour.
63. I should not worry i would just change my caricature! I take it as a badge of honour that you are that worried people will agree with my postings that you feel i should be banned! You are one of the most Liberal people i have ever “encountered”!
68 It must also be hard to poll accurately on the London Assembly voting intention. Most people will think of the top up vote as a Second Preference, which it isn’t really.
I think that the answer given in this poll for the London Assembly voting intention is really Londoners’ general election voting intention i.e. Con 42%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 16%.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential Poll for New Jersey :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
Kerry won this state by 7% in 2004.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_presidential_election
Just found that David Davis interview again which shot his credibility. Nick Clegg isn’t that far away from that moment.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2005/nov/16/toryleadership2005.interviews
75, that’s a ridiculous comparison. Clegg’s credibility can’t be destroyed because it doesn’t exist.
So the BNP is not a white working class party?
That Clegg interview is unspeakably awful. What was he thinking?
When you’ve just admitted to sleeping with up to 30 women, and are asked if you would ever cheat on your wife, there are few worse answers than “I hope not”. Even “Gladly” or “Only with men” are redeemable by their certainty. It sounds like he has no choice in the matter!
Again, ‘Will you send your children to private school’ - “I hope not to” … ‘but I may be forced to by my wife…’ what sort of answers are these?
Compound cringeworthiness by an out-of-character story about wilful and drunken anti-social behaviour, laughed off in the only way that is explicable (in light of the other story about cross-dressing): public school pranks when we were abroad on a school trip, and drunk.
NOTE TO POLITICIANS - Either give the right answer, or the wrong answer, but whichever you choose, say it with conviction.
NOTE TO POLITICIANS 2: Refusing to answer unreasonable questions is your prerogative - answering questions you know will embarass you is dangerous. People will rarely remember that you avoided a question about previous lovers, but I guarentee they will remember if you admit he was a Satanist called Terry, who owned a cannabis farm.
74- jack W- keep the polls running. Hopefully we will see your butt shortly..
78. Ed Balls didn’t do his credibility any good by admitting to be an under age drinker -
of Babycham.
79 with added SOAMES weighting of course…
78
Nick Clegg proves my assertion the LibDems - like the Conservatives - chose 3 rubbish leaders in a row.
I was going to add “before they see sense” but that is a phrase I no longer associate with the LibDems.
Clegg and Paddick are both pleasant-looking lightweights who are neither convincing to the public or interesting to the media.
Cable is a serious, substantial character with good political instincts and a likeable demeanour. He’s seven years younger than John McCain and he could do a great job for the Lib Dems as either leader or mayoral candidate.
Why not?
80 - Well if I didn’t hate him before…
78. Bless Mr Clegg: I bet he felt all grown up and important doing that interview - thinking people would read it and say “that Clegg bloke, what a top notch geezer - smooth with the ladies, likes to pull the odd prank, really ‘normal’ - why, he’s just what we need! He’s got my vote.”
But, of course, it just reinforces the fact that he’s another politician who’s trying to hard. It doesn’t seem that he could disengage his brain from politics-mode, when asked, as Morus points out, if he would ever be unfaithful it’s “I hope not.” *I hope not*! Hmph, typical Lib Dem cop-out
83, because he mistakenly thought Campbell was driven out due to age, whereas he was actually unsupported because he lacked vigour.
82, not sure it’s fair to say Hague was rubbish. In 97-01 a Tory comeback was virtually impossible. Plus Howard did that rarest of political feats: resigning when it was right to do so.
79 My BUTT will not be revealed in all its glory until after the Democrat nominee is officially settled.
83. Because the Lib Dems got frightened over Ming’s age and got scared into going for someone younger (who, as it turns out, is patently not up to the job).
What they didn’t work out though was the age thing surrounding Ming was not just how old he was but how old he *looked.* Cable still looks sprightly and energetic. Ming just looked doddery and ancient.
Can I be the first to complain about the Picture at the top of the thread (much worse than the one in the previous thread). What were they doing allowing such a monstrosity opposite the Tower of London.
I always like a bit of Jack Ws ARSE.
(I’ll get my coat)
89. Oh I know, it’s tragic. It’s also one of Lord Fosters, to which I have to say ‘poor show,’ at least from an exterior perspective. I have no idea what it’s like inside. I expect it’s pretty nice.
Now the refurbished German Reichstag building, both exterior and interior - there’s an achievement.
74 More polls please.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Poll Trackers :
McCain 49% .. Clinton 40%
McCain 47% .. Obama 42%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
…………………….
90. Cheeky
92 Peter. Was that ‘Andrea like’ for you !!
Thats what I was thinking….
Speaking of David Davis:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/31/media.labour?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
Hopi Sen, Anthony Wells has confirmed that Yougov *don’t* weight by ethnicity, so Livingstone’s press release makes no sense at all.
91. Other than the fact its cram full of Trots and King Newt himself its very nice inside if a little cramped..the circular walkway to the top is open to the public…
I would particular draw the vistor’s attention to the view of hundreds of concerned looking lefties, arms full of paperwork, queuing for first use of the recently purchased shredding machines
25: I’ve not seen Boris on HIGNFY. But I’ve seen him at close quarters trying to do a serious political job (i.e. sit on Commons committees, speak in debates). It looks as though you may well get to see it too. Let’s compare notes in a year or so, eh?
BTW, an ES poster advertising the poll reads “Boris races ahead in latest poll”, skating delicately over the fact that he’s down on the last poll they published.
Clegg’s interview seems to me a bit misjudged, but it’s in the same league as Cameron’s cycling episode - some people will think it makes him seem human, some will be mildly put off, but I wouldn’t think it will shift a single vote.
97. But should they?
I think it could be Cleggs William Hague 12 pints moment.
There will be many in the Lib Dems uncomfortable with the interview when they sit back and reflect on it
78- I find Clegg refreshingly honest. People can have a number of flings before marriage, and be faithful. Common in my (and Clegg’s) generation- 30 flings works only to about 3 a year (average) from 17- late 20’s. And you are always going to notch a couple of these on holidays. And to be honest when I was in my 20’s- 3 flings or less in a year would have been a veritable drought. Most of these would be pretty crap mind, and clouded by alcohol.
Hardly promiscuous, and hardly an indicator that one will be unfaithful in marriage. Unthinkable in my case. Well if Nigella was to pop round with some pastries.
99. Correct - its not a real howler like not calling a GE last November.
99. “Clegg’s interview seems to me a bit misjudged, but it’s in the same league as Cameron’s cycling episode - some people will think it makes him seem human, some will be mildly put off, but I wouldn’t think it will shift a single vote”
the same could be said of the kiss that Brown tried to land on Mrs Sarkozy’s face
102 - I actually think that ultimately is highlights public ambiguity about politicians in that we are all aware that they are just like the rest of us, but would prefer to try and maintain the fiction that they aren’t.
104. Please Jimbo, I’m having a late lunch.
105. Surely not!
‘Did you ever take drugs?’ A grey flush subverts Hain’s tan. ‘No, yes, no. I mean, at a party once someone stuffed a spliff into my mouth but I didn’t smoke it. I promise you.
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/about-that-daily-mail-interview/
‘Snipergate’ goes from ‘bad to verse’ for Hillary :
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03312008/news/worldnews/from_bad_to_verse_for_hill_104288.htm
102 - I’m not chastising him for being promiscuous (although IIRC against a UK average of 7 partners, 30 is pretty good going - no long term faithful relationships in that decade?), I’m just saying that if after talking about your many sexual partners an interviewer asks if you will now be faithful to your wife and mother of your kids, that his answer is awful: “I certainly hope so”. Makes him sound like a philanderer who can’t even take responsibility for his affairs!
108- jackW- I also heard that Hillary claimed that she was named after Edmund Hillary.
Interesting that since she was born 6 years after the everest ascent, and at the time of her birth Edmund was a little known paleontologist in New Zealand.
re 68. Dan - my well-placed Labour source on private polls is obviously better than yours.
Had a look at the detailed stats. Some oddities:
* The Assembly result last time (Londonwide) was Con 28, Lab 24, LD 17, UKIP 8. That was in 2004, a year before Labour won the GE. This time it’s predicted as 42/37/15. Apparently a big squeeze on minor parties, but for what it’s worth it shows virtually no change in the Con/Lab lead.
* What’s changed is that lots of Lab and LD supporters say they plan to vote for Boris. Baffling though his appeal is to some of us, we sceptics need to accept that it exists. By the same token, the Boris lead doesn’t appear to reflect a surge of Tory support in London.
* 3% of LibDem identifiers plan to vote BNP for the Assembly, yet in the total sample only 2% do (well below recent speculation and last time’s result). On that basis, they won’t get even close to a seat, despite this hitherto little-known “Liberals for fascism” voting bloc.
* Also on the Assembly figures: is the huge (23%!) Labour lead in the middle-aged group and huge (24%!) Tory lead among the elderly consistent with other polls? Just small subsamples, or something particular about London, or…?
80 - That revelation, that Ed Balls used to drink Baby Cham (*shudder*) set of a train of tangental thinking.
The relationship between policians and drinks is an interesting and often difficult one. As you can imagine people as animals or musical instruments (I am oft described as leonine, and very few people are surprised that I am a brass player) I found myself thinking of politicians in terms of what drink they would be. Let us imagine Gordon Brown’s ‘drinks’ Cabinet:
Douglas Alexander - Scotch - Liked by fewer people than who claim to
David Milliband - Sherry - You can imagine Old Ladies being fond, but no-one else.
Alistair Darling - Port - Liable to induce headaches and drowsiness
Jack Straw - Vodka (& coke) - NuLabour yet also an Ex-Trot: Detente in a glass
Hillary Benn - Brandy - Cultured, and seems older than actually is
Ed Balls - Bourbon - brash, clumsy, poor immitation of Scotch
John Hutton - Absinthe - Doesn’t mix well with other drinks
Harriet Harman - Advocaat - useless, and no-one has any idea what it is doing in the Cabinet
Jacqui Smith - Gin - A London-centric drink. To help you survive Home and the Office.
Hazel Blears - Moonshine/Potchin - Would be unbearable in larger quantities
Alan Johnson - Bailey’s - A little slippery, a little cloying, but when cold enough is tolerable
Ruth Kelly - Vegetable Oil - Simply doesn’t belong
Peter Hain - Orange Juice - no explanation required
Margeret Hodge (aka Proms hater) - Soda Water - no f***ing taste.
112 Nick “Baffling though his appeal is to some of us”. Is it baffling really. He’s a jovial, amusing blond from the telly. Is there more to it than that? I doubt it.
In many ways he’s the antidote to earnest conviction led politicos. But Boris would be nowhere if he was just a Tory MP or Spectator editor.
113. Brilliant! A masterpiece!
112 - I think we would need to look at the polling for the Assembly prior to the 2004 election in order to draw any conclusions.
83 Why not?
Er…… because it’s too late, well for the next few years anyway, by which time it probably will be too late for him. I never understood why Vince didn’t throw his hat into the ring for the LibDem leadership.
Tyson - you mean that she was born 6 years before the ascent of Everest.
I pop out for an hour to counter sign a Lottery bid and what happens while I’m gone? Why Nick Clegg has given the equivalent of the 14 pints interview barely 100 days into his shaky leadership while opinions are still being formed. Did Piers Morgan drug him?
Oh My God. OH MY GOD.
Whatever anyone might feel about Ken I think we can all agree there is no enthusiasm whatsoever for Boris. Four weeks as underdog with some of the best strategic brains in advertising on his side could well be decisive. It’s for Ken to turn the antipathy for Boris into outright fear and if anyone can do it Ken can. Wait till his campaign starts in earnest.
Lib Dems: Pulling Here!
“I think we can all agree there is no enthusiasm whatsoever for Boris”
Source?
‘The Note’ @ ABC News presents an excellent overview of the race :
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
……………….
113 Morus.
Can you really discuss wether you are good in bed and be a party leader? Does he think its ruddy Italy?
122 a 12% lead clearly indicates no enthusiasm. please keep up with delusional labour muppet thinking
120. no enthusiasm for Boris? Any particular reason for this theory or just making stuff up as always?
120 - Rog, there is 10% less enthusiasm for Ken and a collective rabble have been trying to engender fear of Boris. It hasn’t worked and cannot work. It is possible for Ken to turn things but not by following your prescriptions methinks.
120. I think Ken is one of the few Labour campaigners out there could turn it round in time. It’ll be tight mind. One thing that I keep on thinking is that people care so much about the use of public money to give £11 billion for Johnson to play Monopoly with and fly by the seat of his pants.
120 Some people love Boris. There is more enthusiasm for him than many politicians I would say.
My fellow lefties, we really need to wake up, we are being beaten in the traditional way Tories beat Labour incumbents. It may already be too late for Ken, but there are lessons to be re-learnt here.
113. Exellent - Port is the only drink that has ever given me double vision. Presumably thats why Alistair Darling can make 1+1=4
112. Nice try Nick but your straw clutching exercise will convince very few.
Further to Nick Palmer’s comments. I think the You Gov numbers are positive for Boris but need to be treated with some caution. All of the You Gov polls we have had to date have shown low and sometimes non-existent results for ‘others’. Given the nature of these elections, where ‘others’ have tended to poll pretty well, this is surprising and I’m not sure very credible. In this poll others are beginning to emerge but still with very low numbers. Do we beleive that others are being squeezed or have this series of polls seriously understimated the level of ‘other’ support? For example the UKIP candidate polled around 115,000 votes in 2004? Also, 17% say they still haven’t made up their mind which implies a degree of voter uncertainty which could be a significant factor. Also, we should be careful about second preference numbers. The fact that Boris is ahead on headline second preferences may not reflect the reality. The true measure is that group of voters who vote for Paddick, Berry et al as a first preference and then Johnson/Liivingstone as a second preference. This is not the same thing. Of course, it might be that Conservative support is surging in the ouebroughs and the Conservative strategy of targetting 300 key wards to get the Conservative vote out will deliver victory for Boris on first preferences alone but all the same a more complex picture than the headline numbers suggests.
122. I can only think you’re typing from a croft in the Shetlands Aaron? Certainly not London. Is anyone anywhere near London finding any enthusiasm for Boris?
Jonathan,
The most Erudite thing you have posted for,well, ever!
re 110 and 118 and Edmund Hillary was a bee-keeper rather than paleontologist as well.
133 Yup, sadly.
133. no sources for your assumption then?
133.
Henley
[E] Conservative hold Johnson A.B.* Conservative 24,894 53.49%
Turner D.G. LibDem 12,101 26.00%
Saeed K.A. Labour 6,862 14.75%
Stevenson M.C. Green 1,518 3.26%
Gray-Fisk D.I. Ms. UKIP 1,162 2.50%
Electorate: 68,591; Turnout: 67.85%;
Majority: 12,793 (27.49%)
133. Never mind London - what do the waiters in the south of France think? They are the only reliable source of opinion.
128. I normally think your posts are very considered. But the reason that I think this one is less so is because Ken’s mates have been caught throwing the monopoly money around. The evening standard campaign has hit home and tarnished Ken and quite rightly so. The idea that Ken has used our cash so wonderfully has been discredited and i get the feeling that its time someone else should be given a go.
However, I do get the feeling that Boris is a bit of a marmite candidate in that some people love him and some people really really hate him, however, seem to be in a minority at present. (i don’t get the hate thing but i have heard mates really going off on one!)
140. I think that’s a good point. Perhaps that’ll be Ken’s downfall - Johnson’s biggest liability has been neutralised by the Lee Jasper stuff.
One can assume that Woger will be using of his many addresses to cast a vote in London. Last year he was voting in Manchester. Great to be so rich that you can swan around and vote as often as you like. Meantime Londoners will look at the issues and without the benefit of four homes and decide what to do.
New ARG Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 38% .. Obama 51%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ncdem8-702.html
113 better think up a drink for 119 and PDQ.
142. I see the copper pot and kettle has turned green !!
133 - Just Staffordshire as it happens, so the result is not terribly important to me and I don’t have a great deal of personal enthusiasm for Boris. But clearly his charisma and personality is going down well where it matters, as evidenced by the polls.
136. You’ve not been curb-crawling around Old Queen street again have you Jonathan?
O/T
Puts Gordo’s miracle economy into perspective
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3644997.ece
I don’t think it matters what Clegg does at the moment. The Libdem leader doesn’t have a honeymoon period because most people don’t know who he is. This is the fate of all LibDem leaders at the beginning. He’ll get the attention at election time when I think he will perform rather well, although I still expect the LibDems to do very badly because of the Tory revival. In 1967 Jeremy Thorpe became liberal leader and, despite being highly regarded at the time and rather charismatic compared to Heath, the Liberals were nearly wiped out in the 1970 election.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential Poll for Michigan :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 42%
McCain 43% .. Obama 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/michigan_2008_presidential_election
O/T part 2
10 years of socialism have taken us back to the dark days of the 70s..
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23466906-details/Drunk%2C+violent%2C+promiscuous…+a+U.S.+view+of+British+youth+as+seen+on+the+cover+of+Time+Magazine/article.do
144 - Nick Clegg - Bucks Fizz - Yellow, goes flat quickly, not appreciated by grown-ups.
145 - Green? Just pointing out that our class warrior is actually one of the wealthiest and most privileged people on this site. Which makes him a total hypocrite as well as being extremely stupid.
Perhaps Nick Clegg still dreams of “doing a Sarkozy” and trading the missus in for a supermodel. Now he’s probably sitting back, ashen-faced, going “Did I say that out loud?”
149. I feel that might have been the case had it not been for the silly blustering over the EU referendum. I don’t want to turn this thread into another EU discussion but Clegg managed to attract a helluva lot of negative attention to his party. PR wise, it would have been the cockup of the parliamentary year if the Election-That-Never-Was hadn’t have already won that prize.
Aaron. From what I hear people people think Ken is a crook. Natural supporters just don’t trust him and despite reservations that’s where Boris is scoring. I’m pretty sure if it wasn’t for Lee Jasper Ken would be ahead which is why I don’t think it’s necessarily all over.
113 William Hague - doesn’t matter, as long as there’s 13 pints of it….
Nick Clegg is surely the nasty yellow stuff you produce when you have previously had (a leader who has had) too much to drink.
112 The figures for voting in the London assembly don’t distinguish between constituency votes and list votes. Even if Labour and the Conservatives were to get 79% of the constituency vote betweeen them (which I doubt) they won’t get anything like that for the list vote.
WRT Labour and Lib Dem supporters backing Boris, it’s a party id poll and there are almost always more people identifying with Labour than the Conservatives, even in times of Labour unpopularity. Party id usually throws up quite different results from standard voting intention surveys.
WRT the BNP, the poll only puts the Greens on 3%, but no one really doubts they’ll get onto the assembly. My comments on the list vote apply here.
113 Post of the Month Morus
O/T 3
Looking unlikely that NR will ever pay back what it owes the govt…
The quality of its loan book has also deteriorated, reflecting “market conditions” as house prices dip and mortgages grow more expensive. Northern Rock’s customer bad debt charge tripled in the year from £81.2m to £240m.
The number of properties in possession more than tripled from 662 to 2,215 and mortgages three months or more in arrears rose from 0.42pc of properties to 0.57pc.
The bank added: “It is expected there will be a negative impact on loan loss impairment charges in the future as the propensity of customers to default increases and recoveries on defaulted loans reduce further.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/31/bcnrock131.xml
153 P&C. Copper pots and kettles get very tarnished when there is no polished contribution and then clearly turn green with envy !!
156. Time for everyone to double their bets on Boris…
Its a job to see how Livingstone is going to turn this around. I mean, for everything I’ve said about not counting Livingstone out, it doesn’t appear that he can make any headway. Its begnning to look as though Londoners have made up their mind, whatever happens…
Incidentally, how prolific is YouGov at the moment? Everywhere you turn YouGov are doing major polls. At the same time we hear very little from MORI, whi appear to be struggling for clients?
164 - Aren’t YouGov quite scarily accurate when you compare final polls to results?
149. I disagree to some extent. Whether Clegg has a honeymoon period or not, he doesn’t have to provide an open invite for the more salacious parts of the media to go digging into his past. Is it realistic that there aren’t some trists in his past that he would rather were forgotten? It makes no sense to highlight what is potentially a risque past. You can just imagine some faux broken hearted former lover spilling the intimate details of their relationship to the Sunday Papers. Even worse a trickle of tales from his past solidifying it in the public’s mind.
Furthermore, its poor timing to admit to unruly behaviour whilst abroad when at the very same time the cover story of Time magazine talks of Britain’s “unhappy, unloved and out of control” kids
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/03/britain-in-disg.html
It may come to nothing but equally it could be a calamity waiting to happen. Personally, I think the interview just further emphasises how naive, immature and lacking in judgement Clegg is and that’s not good for a Party Leader. Potentially, that could worsen a difficult position for the Libdems.
156. Roger,
Care to offer me 4/6 on Boris?
164 Polling by interent is far cheaper than face to face polling or polling by telephone. That’s why Yougov are doing so well. It would be nice if we could see more of BPIX or Harris, so that we could compare the internet pollsters.
165 At the last election, NOP was most accurate. But Yougov’s record certainly bears comparison with the others.
But then again…
A Lib Dem leader has one main job. Get publicity. Clegg has been good at that (good or bad)!
Can you imagine GQ doing a job on the other guy (his name escapes me
)
165. I don’t know James? I read somewhere they were the only pollsters to get get the 2005 result right (not counting polling day exit polls) but I don’t know how true that is?
169. Huhne ?
O/T - Looks like Capello could be prosecuted in an Italian fraud investigation. Wonder if there is money ot be made on how long he will last?