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Will this rhetoric keep Hillary in the race?

April 1st, 2008

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    Can she make Pennsylvania about whether she can continue?

Unlike many I remain to be convinced that Hillary’s nomination prospects are totally doomed. She has shown when the chips have been down that women, particularly older ones, will flock to back her if she can make the contest an issue of whether she stays in or not.

The current idea that the party is ganging up on her to stop her proceeding could resonate well in the next primary in Pennsylvania where her vote share will be critical. Her portrayal of the calls for her to quit as way of stopping voting in the remaining states looks as though it is gaining traction.

To a Montana TV station she said: “My take on it is a lot of Senator Obama’s supporters want to end this race because they don’t want people to keep voting. That’s just the opposite of what I believe. We want people to vote. I want the people of Montana to vote, don’t you?”

That’s a powerful argument to voters in the remaining states and Obama needs to handle it carefully.

Now I know the numbers don’t look good but the more she can get closer in the popular vote the more she has an argument with the super-delegates who will, at the end of the day, decide the thing.

This won’t be over until it is over.

Obama’s betting price has now tightened to 1/4.

Mike Smithson



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435 comments to “Will this rhetoric keep Hillary in the race?”

  1. Clearly an effective line - a little bit useful in winning votes, but more important in:
    a) Getting more money out of her existing donors (even if you don’t think she’ll win, cough up now to support democracy and stick it to these bullies… This must be quite a persuasive argument to people who have stuck with her until now)
    b) Stopping superdelegates who are feeling tempted to endorse Obama now and get the thing over with. (If you endorse Obama, you don’t just upset Clinton supporters and donors, you also get accused of vote suppression… Must make it very tempting even for pro-Obama delegates to keep their mouths shut for a couple of months…)

    Of course, all that does is buy her time to hope something incredibily lucky happens that will swing either a super-majority of super-delegates or persuade a bunch of Obama’s delegates to defect. And the potential pseudo-Democratic counter to this for superdelegates is the Pelosi line: They’re both excellent candidates, so you’ll endorse whoever gets the most pledged delegates. If we see the Pelosi Club growing, that could be a sign that the thing is going to end early.
    http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html


  2. How many Republicans do you think will start contributing to her campaign?


  3. 1. I like reason #2. As far as I can tell Hillary’s biggest worry is that Obama will wrap up enough superdelegates to make the job even harder. Sure she can say that they can change her mind but that’s something she’d rather not get bogged down with right now.

    She needs the superdelegates to hold off, she needs to win big in PA and then she can change the media narrative from “should she get out” to “wow she looks like she might just pull it off’”


  4. 3: Right now, money might well be the bigger concern. (Although obviously it’s related to whether or not the superdelegates break in a way that proves that her candidacy isn’t viable.)

    Don’t know if you’ve seen articles like this one:
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9274.html

    As long as her staff are confident they’re going to get paid, they have nothing to lose by encouraging her to stay in the race. But if think they’re reduced to working for free, they may start to see the value in their candidate making a dignified exit to help unite the party…

    This is the kind of thing that makes me think that despite all the talk about her not being a quitter, fighting until the convention, etc, we could well see her suddenly throw in the towel. Maybe when the voting has finished, maybe after Pennsylvania (going out on a high note) and maybe even before then.


  5. O/T - breaking sports news.
    ” The British Olympic Board will announce today that British athletes will be banned from displaying the Cross of St. George, the Saltire and the Welsh Dragon at this summer’s Beijing games.
    Their spokesman, Rolf Paoli, said that the Union Flag was the official recognised emblem of the Britsh Olympic team and that use of the other Nationalist symbols would be deemed as ‘political’ statements, liable to disciplinary procedures. “


  6. Of course, if her strategy had not been built around winning a dozen large states, the idea of her standing up for the right of plucky little Montana to have its say would resonate a little better - and she might not be in the mess she is today. Its the mark of the failure of her campaign that anything after Super-dooper Tuesday had any meaningful voice. It wasn’t supposed to be like this.

    There are polls being undertaken in PA now. If they show Obama getting to within say 7-8%, then the sudden collapse of her campaign may yet occur. Obama’s statewide bus tour and the moeny advantage he has for the ad war could (as with previous states in this campaign) help him reel her in. That said, it is one of her optimal states which she should win by 15%+.


  7. Story of how a lone blogger got Obama one extra delegate (and Hillary one less) by being an anorak about the voting totals in Mississippi:

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132×5237601


  8. OT. I heard that the Sun are now calling him Nick Clegg-over! Can’t be bad for a party short on publicity.


  9. This is a fairly spectacular attempt at twisting his words, especially after Bill Clinton tried to sign up Obama as Hillary’s number two.

    http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com


  10. Unfortunately the Sun is not read in Liverpool so Nick Clegg will miss the benefit there.

    Today the Sun, amazingly, lead on how unpleasant Liverpool fans are. Talk about picking at your spots!


  11. On the last thread, and well after my bedtime, Nick Palmer and others (Roger) queried my salary and expenses and timetable as an NHS consultant.

    1. Expenses: we pay for our car parking at the hospital (£150 per annum). The only expenses that I can claim are for travel on hospital (or NHS )business (not home-to-work) for which we have to provide receipts or documentation of exact mileage. We receive £86 per annum towards the cost of maintaining a telephone line rental at home. 6% of our pensionable salary is deducted at source towards our pension

    2. We all have to provide an exact timetable for one randomly selected four week period per annum, recording where we are and what we are doing in half-hour time-slots, and this is audited (MPs get paid whether there or not)

    3. Pay. My basic is £91495 per annum based on 21 years seniority. I get an additional £34000 per annum as a clinical excellence award, which is based on independent evaluation of my work against measured criteria such as teaching, research, service development, etc. In my case I have contributed to 5 textbooks and some 60 peer reviwed articles in medical journals; I teach the Cambridge final year medical students, supervise a PhD student and a research fellow, am on the editorial board of a medical journal and am the president elect of a major national medical organization.

    I also receive an additional £12,000 of unpensionable pay because when my working hours were audited I was working too many hours. This is entirely in the gift of the employing Trust.

    Grand total £137,000 of which £125,000 is pensionable

    4. Private practice is done in my own time, but any expenses claimed against the cost of this have receipts, and have to pass the strict criteria of HMRC. Personally I am not enomously interested in private practice, and only see people who insist on coming. To allay speculation, my private practice earnings for the last full year after expenses allowed by HMRC but before tax were £102,000

    5. Campaigning is done in my own time

    6. Any more questions?


  12. 11. why were they interested in your expenses?


  13. 11

    You forgot to mention the qualifications and number of years of training required prior to qualifying as a doctor.

    In the case of an MP it’s zero in both cases,put’s their very over generous pay and conditions into perspective.


  14. Barry,

    That is astonishingly frank of you!


  15. 8 Roger.

    Nick Clegg-over-and-out.


  16. The Daily Mash comments on the immigration report

    http://tinyurl.com/2nmtwj


  17. This is a very thin line from Hillary. The democrat bigwigs have an over-riding interest—replacing a republican president with a democrat one. The longer the selection of their nominee takes, the greater the probability of McCain winning. Check the match-ups; its close.

    The counter is straightforward. “If you want a democrat in the white house, you can’t afford to vote for Hillary. Its too risky to allow the democrat nominee contest to drag on.”


  18. Barry, may we ask, what exactly is your specialism? oncology, paediatrics, Obs & Gyny?


  19. re 18. Barry is at my local hospital and I think he is a dermatologist.


  20. We know Barry’s speciality - on call to look after after the Smithsons.

    Very impressed by your openness Barry. Assuming a normal working week of 37 hours - the bonus means you must do an extra 4 hours (based on an eighth) so 41 hours for the NHS. I don’t know your private rate, but based on £200 per hour (net), then an extra 500 hours a year makes 10 hour per week on private cases.

    Hope you have time left to get elected.


  21. Anthony Wells of UK polling report has a comprehensive and well argued piece on Ken’s allegations against YouGov.


  22. 21 - Yes it makes interesting reading. I was musing on that and wonder whether Ken’s outburst is more to do with it being in the Evening Standard than being a YouGov poll.


  23. 19. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you that you never get a skin disease then!


  24. 23. What a puerile post, but sadly rather typical.


  25. Barry - it might be worth spending some of your well-earned cash on obtaining some medical advice for yourself. I think you need it:

    http://tinyurl.com/29z9eb


  26. 24 - Proof that Roger needed no training to get under people’s skin ;)


  27. I once attended an event where the after dinner speaker was Evan Harris MP, MD. BCh. Someone asked him a medical-related question, to which he replied, “I don’t know! I’m not a proper Doctor, I’m a Hospital Doctor!” It raised a good laugh, which was intended, but it makes me wonder what monetary sacrifices he, Dr Stoate, Dr Fox, and the others have had to make in order to be of public service in another way.


  28. Guido reporting that Boris will do PMQs today.


  29. 28 - Probably fit Boris shambolic character to turn up a day early.


  30. 29 Touchë


  31. 23. even for roger thats pathetic.


  32. 24. Only someone who didn’t watch Barry’s torchlit expose of the NHS on Dispatches could think I was joking!!


  33. 32. As producer of cr*p TV yourself you are in no position to throw stones.


  34. 28- I heard Ming is going to to PMQ for the Lib Dems today. How nice of them.

    (Cough) (Cough)


  35. 34 - It’s All Fools day not All Souls.


  36. Thank you for your open response, barry. £239,000 total for 50+ hours compares well with £61,000 for 70+ hours for MPs, but as others have said there are other issues about qualifications and how one assesses the importance of the jobs. I’ll leave it at that.


  37. 36. true, his job is a lot more important and stressful than yours.


  38. 21 I´m interested in the collapse of the Greens, BNP and UKIP. One of the reservations about YouGov at national level has been that they put others at an implausibly high level. Now they seem to have gone to the other extreme. I’m ready to be convinced that this means that YouGov is now more reliable. But I’ll need more evidence first.


  39. 36. I should say one Barry is worse at least a dozen Nick Palmers. People who save lives score higher in my book than people who spend most of their time interfering in and messing up people’s lives.


  40. 36 Nick Palmer’s job is to parrot the Party Line on pb.com and to his constituents.

    It is much cheaper to supply a DVD of the Labour Party Manifesto to anyone interested.

    The only MPs worth paying (of any party) are those who take an independent and critical line.


  41. 40. Well put.


  42. 11 barry. £239k eh Bazza …. counting those fivers in the pay packet every week must surely lead to repeatative strain injury !!

    However not a bad wack from a glorified dandruff potions peddler. Seems to me the government should dish out head and shoulders to the punters and save ourselves £1/4 million several times over around the country and have an annual free April 1st lottery on the savings.

    There ….. practical Jacobite policies for a heathier, wealthier and happier nation !!


  43. Cuddles. I know how rare a young female Tory anorak is so I always make allowances for your rudeness. But don’t you think you could choose a more appropriate username like Spike or Snake or something?


  44. 41 In fact, it would be cheaper and more beautiful for Broxtowe (and other constituencies with Parrot MPs) to be represented by actual cockatoos, lories, budgerigars and similar.

    Just imagine the glorious displays of plumage in the Commons — and the new MPs will only need seeds and nuts.

    Parrots will perform exactly the same duties as the Parrot MPs, but much more colourfully.


  45. Gwynfa. Nick is too modest to say it, but your chgarge is UNFAIR, TOTALLY UNFAIR.

    Why should Nick criticise his party or the government if he doesn’t want to. Whilst a party free parliament may have apparent attractions I think that if parties didn’t exist they would very quickly form.

    Nick has shown on here many times that he is his own man at the same time as being an MP who owes his place to the Labour Party.


  46. 43. I’m male, I just use this username because it challenges peoples assumptions. Well, not really, it just confuses people. Whats your excuse for being rude?


  47. If the Boris Pmqs thing is true it will drive Ken mad.
    However the date is April 1st……


  48. 44. Brilliant!


  49. 45 - Absolutely concur!


  50. ‘Nick has shown on here many times that he is his own man ‘

    You’ve been flying too close to the sun again it seems…that comment verges on the delusional.


  51. 36/39/40/41: don’t know why you guys bother!

    Back on topic: there was a report a couple of days ago that Obama has stepped back from calling on Hillary to quit (he made a generous speech explicitly saying he didn’t feel she needed to) after polling suggesting a backlash against the pressure. See http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jean_hannah_edelstein/2008/03/sweet_smell_of_sexism.html from an Obama supporter who had been reacting against it. I can’t see any change before the PA result. If it’s close or Obama wins, I can well imagine Hillary suspending her campaign then.

    If she wins by 10%+, I’d think she’ll carry on. Why shouldn’t she? If you really want to be POTUS, you’re one of three possible choices, and there’s a chance you might succeed, why would you give up just to please one of the other two? There isn’t really any clear evidence that the campaign is damaging Democrats - yes, it’s exposing possible attack lines on Obama (and Clinton), but they were going to come up anyway, and they may well be better off defusing them now than in October.


  52. You could hire 3 Barries to mess up a bank - ask Mr Applegarth at Northern Rock.


  53. 45 It is perhaps unfair to parrots … but I strongly resent MPs (of all parties) who do not think for themselves. It is exactly this subservient attitude that led to the catastrophe of Iraq.

    You ask “Why should Nick crioticise his party or the government”

    The answer is: “It is the honest thing to do — if you have doubts, or believe that the Government is wrong or muddle-headed. It is also the way that you best SERVE your party and prevent it making mistakes — honest and fearless criticism.”


  54. 51 Actually making a speech saying “hell no, she doesn’t have to quit - yet” seems to be the clever option. It keeps the story in the papers, and doesn’t make you look nasty.

    42 Any new polls?


  55. 53 - I have met very few MP’s who don’t think for themselves. You are the type of person who says that MP’s should publically criticise and if they did would cry ‘SPLIT’ at the top of your voice.


  56. 55 I disagree with you: Most MPs don’t think for themselves. Also, I would not cry “SPLIT”.

    Look at Iraq. That is a brilliant example of how many MPs of many parties failed to offer criticism, although there was plenty of evidence in the public domain.

    I believe in MPs who are bloody-minded. That is the fundmental requirement of an MP.


  57. 51. ‘why do you bother’

    Many of us ask the same question about you, Nick. You are clearly an intelligent man and yet you spend your time mindlessly regurgitating spin lines thought up by deeply unpleasant characters of the Campbell/Whelan/Draper variety.

    It is impossible to discern what possible public service your ‘job’ actually involves - indeed ‘public disservice’ is probably a more accurate description.


  58. Look Iraq was a mistake, but we chose (through an election system that would have elected Mr Mugabe, but never mind that) a government that felt that their policy on Iraq was correct.

    It is “the honest thing to do” to honesty support the policy of the Government. People who disagree with you may be mistaken or even wrong but they are not dishonest. Surely you can see that!


  59. 58. Blair ‘honestly’ though it was the right decision to go into Iraq, he was wrong. Just because he was ‘honest’ didn’t make it a right decision.


  60. For those who are interested in the Euro zone economic position, the latest PMI figures demonstrate the growing divide between Germany and the Latin countries.

    Inflation (measured like the CPI) in the zone is now 3.5 and Italy prices grew by half a percent in the last month suggesting an annual rate well above the overall figure.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=f74be6c5-5d1a-4a1d-90af-076189e5f795


  61. 58 “Look Iraq was a mistake, but we chose (through an election system that would have elected Mr Mugabe, but never mind that) a government that felt that their policy on Iraq was correct.”

    As did the official opposition.


  62. 51 Nick P. “I’d think she’ll carry on. Why should’t she?”

    Because she doesn’t have a realistic shot at winning !! Without a coup by the super-delegates how does the win ?? …. and such a coup will rip the Democrats assunder, effectively saying that the first time a black person has a realistic shot at the Presidency, who’s won most pledged delegates, most votes and states must sit at the back of the bus !!


  63. Nick doesn’t have to answer to us. He just has to convince enough of his electors that he is better than his opponents. He probably is, though as a good party man I would almost certainly vote Liberal Democrat in Broxtowe.


  64. “Ms Harman, also Commons leader and Labour chairman, rejected newspaper claims it suggested she did not feel safe on the streets.”

    from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7323958.stm

    Hmm. Perhaps she was in desperate need of a kebab?

    As for Hillary, it’s near certain she won’t win. What date is Pennsylvania due?Surely she wouldn’t continue after that?


  65. nick, barry is shockingly overpaid and to my mind the question for you is why your govt have allowed it whilst cutting police pay.

    you are wildly underpaid, but that’s another matter.


  66. 65. Thank god we do0n’t waste money on wannabe professional spinners as well.


  67. It’s a disgrace that a publicly paid dermatology consultant is working privately and obtains a six figure salary from that, so it must include a serious time commitment, and in his remaining hours earns pay and bonuses again in six figures from the public purse, while Labour is closing our post offices and shutting our maternity wards.

    Who on earth authorised such sick overpaying of consultants who do it part time when not in private work?


  68. 58 It is not a question of whether “people who disagree with you may be mistakedn or even wrong but are not dishonest”. Of course, I am not saying that everyone who disagrees with me is dishonest.

    What I am saying is that I think the job of an MP — on any issue — is to look at and assess the evidence (in the light of their principles and their politics) and come to an independent judgement.

    If you are a Labour MP like Dennis Skinner or BMA — who are doing their job properly — you will 80 per cent of the time come to the conclusion that you can support Labour Govt and 20 per cent of the time that you can’t. Good! I like the Dennis & BMA.

    If you a Parrot Labour MP, you never think, you just always support the Labour Govt.

    Parrots exist in all parties, of course. I just want them replaced by trained birds who perform exactly the same function, but are more beautiful.


  69. 11: A dermatologist. In two minds whether or not to get the crows feet botoxed away. Mid life crisis possibly but my expected Boris winnings would pay for it.


  70. 66. I really think you should stick to Yellow Peril, or Scallywag or whatever. Your name flips give me a headache.


  71. Jack, the primary system, whilst not perfect, is good way of testing the credentials of candidates for the Presidency. I do not accept that by staying in Hillary helps the republicans. If she withdrew McCain could focus on Obama’s shortcomings instead of dividing his fire. With her still there the party is working as it should, signing up voters enthusing party workers and attracting donations even developing policies.

    I think Hillary will lose though Obama is not yet a certainty. She should stay the course. The eventual winner will be stronger for having to fight all the way.


  72. O/T Is this ‘Plan B’ for Ken Livingstone?

    http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/04/ken-livingstone.html


  73. 72. strange man, he beats them, then he joins them!


  74. In many ways it is over. No it is not immpossible that she could somehow do something but the bottom lines would need to be all or a combination of:

    1. FL & MI must be fully in play in some shape or form
    2. Clinton must take the popular vote since delegate numbers gap will prove tough to close andf with ciurrent polling figures for upcoming primaries suggesting Clinton can’t close that gap enough.
    3. Something destroys Obama’s credibility

    Clinton needs to take a numbers battle somewhere in her favour to make it possible for enough super delegates to break her way. If she doesn’t not enough are likely to go against the popular vote and delegates. Some will but not enough.


  75. 73 - I have often stated that I think he rejoined Labour because he feared he couldn’t win last time without the machine behind him.


  76. If the Labour Party had any bottle they would expel Ken for that!!!


  77. [39] - You might say that Barry is “worth a dozen MPs”, but is he worth a dozen nurses?

    Also, I think it’s something the NHS should be worried about if they are paying someone more than £100k pa and they are working a second job (private practice) on top of that.

    I think the NHS pay enough to senior doctors that they can expect their employees to work only for the NHS, and not tire themselves with additional private practice work.

    I know of a chief executive of an organisation 2000-strong, turnover >£100m who gets paid half what Barry gets.

    I suppose the problem is that if you forbid NHS doctors from taking private practice some of them will quit the NHS and earn double working private full-time (or the same in only half the time). I don’t like to think I’m being coerced though.


  78. I agree with Test. It is odd for the NHS to allow one of it’s employees to earn over £100,000 in his spare time. Whether we should blame the NHS or the doctor I don’t know. But surely the NHS patients are getting a pretty poor deal. Is it fair to them to be treated by a doctor who has worked 60 hours because he is moonlighting to make an extra £100,000? Fortunately verrucas and dandruff aren’t fatal but it’s time someone got a grip.


  79. Hillary down at 15’s on the Iowa exchanges :

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html


  80. 68

    Th entire Post Office closures issue shows how many (but not all) MPs make their profession look like a bunch of hypocrites.


  81. [71] Claiming that Hillary staying in the contest ‘doesn’t hurt Obama’ (and by extension the probability of the democrats winning the presidency) is daft.

    Crititisms by your own side carry much more weight than from the other side.

    If you can’t see that, or need examples, it is unclear what you are doing on a politcal betting website. Maybe you are a big backer of McCain?


  82. Any chance of Nick showing some humility towards Barry unneeded honesty?

    Since Barry cannot vote on his own pay award and Nick can, the parallels Nick was trying to draw are disingenuous at best.


  83. Is Hillary’s potential convention strategy already falling apart? :

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9298.html


  84. You must feel strongly about that too post test…I thought you were lurking only?


  85. I’m sort of in agreement with Test. I don’t understand how someone doing a full time professional job (MP or Hospital Consultant)should have time to do other jobs. I also do not understand why Barry should be paid extra for working ‘too many hours’. Most professionals work the hours needed to do the job not set hours and often work extra hours. My wife is a Doctor who works for a commercial organisation. She is contracted to a 37 hour week. She never works as little as that and never gets paid a penny extra and would have no time for other work. I think this is typical of most professional jobs.


  86. thats the wonders of the goverment consultants contract that was signed back in early days of new labour.


  87. 84. It seems ‘test/commentator’ can’t resist a chance to return from her heavily-trumpeted, self-imposed exile, in order to salivate all over her hero, Nick Palmer.

    I look forward to casting my vote against her.


  88. 86

    Thanks to incompetent idiots like Alan Milburn who thought everyone worked the minimum number of hours on their contract.


  89. This is what one, randomly selected, MP earns in his spare time while doing a full time job as an MP (and the MP in question has a higher than average profile and workload in the Commons

    1. Remunerated directorships
    AES Engineering, Rotherham.
    AMT-SYBEX Group Ltd, Dublin (non-executive). The company is a systems integrator which focuses on the utility, transport and energy retail industries.
    2. Remunerated employment, office, profession etc
    Parliamentary adviser to the JCB Group. (£45,001-£50,000)
    Member of the Political Council of Terra Firma Capital Partners. (£25,001-£30,000)
    Parliamentary adviser to Dunalastair Ireland Ltd. (£10,001-£15,000)
    From June 2005, fourth 6 month contract to supply articles for the News of the World. (£95,001-£100,000)
    1 March 2007, speech in London at the annual dinner of Insight Investment. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 3 May 2007)
    22 March, speech in Sussex at the annual conference of Invista Real Estate. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 3 May 2007)
    21 April 2007, speech in London for Mayer, Brown, Rowe & Maw. (£20,001-£25,000) (Registered 3 May 2007)
    4 July 2007, speech in Monaco at the 17th Annual Fund Forum. (£15,001-£20,000) (Registered 7 August 2007)
    6 September 2007, speech in London at a dinner hosted by the Royal Bank of Scotland. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 11 October 2007)
    19 September 2007, speech in London at the British Retail Consortium Annual Dinner. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 11 October 2007)
    27 September 2007, speech in Geneva at a dinner hosted by CB Richard Ellis. (£15,001-£20,000) (Registered 13 November 2007)
    11 October 2007, speech in London at a conference of the Young Presidents’ Organisation. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 13 November 2007)
    1 November 2007, speech in Brighton at a dinner hosted by the Royal Bank of Scotland. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 10 December 2007)
    9 November 2007, speech in Brighton at a dinner for the South East Society of Chartered Accountants. (£10,001-£15,000) (Registered 10 December 2007)
    30 January 2008, hosted the European Venture Capital Journal Awards in London. (£15,001-£20,000) (Registered 21 February 2008)
    7 February 2008, hosted the Legal Business Awards in London. (£15,001-£20,000) (Registered 21 February 2008)
    Contract with HarperCollins Publishers to write a book about William Wilberforce


  90. 89. william hague isnt it?


  91. 89, That looks like William Hague to me - not a very typical MP!!

    If you think that’s normal in the HoC, your knowledge of politics is even less than I thought.


  92. 91. I want to retrain as an MP.


  93. 89. I wonder if ‘test/commentator’ will crank up the pompous indignation in response to that?


  94. [89,90] - Yes, the Rotherham and book mark it out as William Hague, and I doubt many other MPs get as many highly-paid speeching gigs.

    I’d rather MPs weren’t on the boards of companies, and spent more time giving speeches to their community, than being paid to speak to the rich.


  95. And in the interests of political balance, another from a different party:

    1. Remunerated directorships
    HADAW Productions and Investments Ltd, to which is payable income from:
    Making available to, and granting rights relating to, the Blunkett Tapes - Juniper Productions for Channel 4. (£10,001-£15,000)
    Advising and taking part in the Blunkett Tapes for Juniper Productions for Channel 4. (£10,001-£15,000)
    Guardian and Daily Mail joint serialisation of Blunkett Tapes. (£100,001-£105,000)
    April 2007, preparing for presentation for Channel 5 programme for ‘Big Ideas That Changed the World’ series. (Up to £5,000) (Registered 24 April 2007)
    Chair of Commission on School Transport - First Group Ltd (phased payments £20,001-£25,000)
    I have not yet drawn down any income from this directorship.
    2. Remunerated employment, office, profession etc
    Weekly column for The Sun newspaper commencing 3 August 2007 (renewal of contract). (£101,000-£105,000)
    Chair of International Advisory Committee to Entrust Inc. (from 1 March 2007); company providing internet security systems. (£25,001-£30,000)
    22 March 2007, fee for speaking engagement at Pet Food Manufacturers Annual Conference. (Up to £5,000) (Registered 4 April 2007)
    10 May 2007, Sky Television appearance. (Up to £5,000) (Registered 24 May 2007)
    6 June 2007, fee for speech on security and risk management from the Association ofInsurance and Risk Management. (£5,001-£10,000) (Registered 4 July 2007)
    9 October 2007, speaking engagement for Institute of Revenues Rating and Valuation Conference. (£5,001-£10,000) (Registered 1 November 2007)
    7 December 2007, speaking engagement for annual event organised by Green Issues Communications. (£5,001-£10,000) (Registered 7 December 2007)
    21 December 2007, Granada TV ‘What the Papers Say’ speaking engagement. (Up to £5,000) Fee paid to the Weston Park Hospital Cancer Appeal, Sheffield. (Registered 21 December 2007


  96. 90. Speaking of Hague, is he doing PMQs? The tories have refused to say who is doing it and according to the Times website, it might even be Boris!!!!


  97. A former (labour) home secretary (I know there is a few to chose from) is working for a company that is involved in the ID cards project.

    No faint smell of Haddock there then?


  98. Re, previous thread on Clegg’s GQ interview…

    ” It will do him no harm. ”

    Maybe not, but if ANYONE has pictures of him dressed as a women at the party he mentions, he will be a laughing stock.

    Now, it’s pretty common for men to muck around at fancy dress cross-dressing at parties etc, but it ain’t going to look good is it?…

    It’s the ‘behind the scenes’ seedy stuff that it’s a real problem when ‘exposed’.

    I’m not suggesting anything of course.

    Matt.


  99. 96 - It won’t be Boris as I would imagine that as the campaign period is now upon us it could be seen as gaining an unfair advantage. It may not be Hague though, if there were a market I’d be inclined to have a small punt on Theresa May.


  100. 99. I’d check todays date.


  101. 98 - I think it is unfortunate timing, if he had been leader for ages and gave this it wouldnt be as problematic. This is cringeworthy in a ‘Hague baseball-cap’ kind of way.


  102. 100 - Clearly. :roll:


  103. re 11 barry, I’m afraid that it’s now 8.5% pension contribution for you.

    Lower paid NHS staff see their pension contributions drop from 6 to 5% today which will come in handy when they cought up their extra income tax from Saturday.


  104. 84 I have drifted back, since the author of jack w brought his character back. But I’m not posting much.


  105. This is hilarious…

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ukcorrespondents/weirdwiredweb/march2008/hil.htm


  106. 93 Why is it pompous indignation? Do you think it appropriate that someone paid to do a fulltime professional job should have the time to be doing other work of a substantial nature?

    I think it inappropraaite that MPs or Hospital Consultants do this. Not because I have any objection to people doing more than one job, but I can not see how it is possible to do the job you are paid on a full time basis properly.


  107. Theresa May is a good call. But it rather gets my goat that as Harperson is a woman, the Tories need to choose a woman aswell. It’s PC gone too far.

    I understand why they wouldn’t choose Hague. He’s a strong performer, but up against the weak Harriet, he might look like a bully and lose public sympathy.


  108. re 36 and Nick how much are we contributing towards your pension? Other public sector employees have to pay a fair wodge themselves.


  109. Forgive the anecdote, but Clegg’s predicament reminds me of an old boss of mine, who is now the very respectable CEO of an eminent Scottish financial institution. When working for a different organisation a few years ago he was invited to a party by his boss, who told him that it was a fancy dress do, and that everyone was to dress up as a pirate. He did, and of course was the only one who turned up thus attired at a very smart City Livery Hall for the evening’s festivities.

    Yes, even his good friends would pay a lot for the photos of that event.


  110. Why isn’t Cameron doing PMQs?


  111. 110. Brown has bottled it again.


  112. 110,

    Because GB is unavailable.


  113. re 58/59 Nick P has stated publicly on here that he thought Gordon Brown’s plans to increase income tax for the poorest were a mistake - so he doesn’t slavishly follow the government line, but you could bet your life that he didn’t vote against it in the budget debate last year. That’s what’s wrong - MPs to have doubts but then sheepishly troop into whichever lobby the whips tell them to.


  114. 113,

    Just like the Post offices.


  115. 110 - Further to earlier answers it is convention that if the PM is unavailable the other Party leaders absent themselves. Cameron could in theory still do PMQ’s but it would look bad.


  116. Clegg’s comments are pretty embarassing, but not fatal. I just wish he’d laughed and said ‘I’m not answering that one, Piers!’

    How many other people in public life would answer that question. Any half respectable celebrity would keep schtum. Just shows that Clegg lacks assertiveness and dithers. Er… well…. er… er not more than 30.


  117. re several and Boris - haven’t you realised what day it is?


  118. [72,76] - Expel Ken because of an April Fools prank by the Times website?

    The best ones are those that are also credible, but you can tell it’s a prank because it’s for a campaign video - even Ken wouldn’t be that daft, surely. Don’t you remember the things he said to get back into the party?


  119. I look through the list of members’ interests and wonder why so many are not able to make a living outside Parliament. I don’t want full-time MPs. Being able to earn a living outside Parliament means they can be independent and not reliant on the patronage of the whips.
    If they become ministers they are expected to run a government department as well as being an MP, which begs the question of how they manage if being an MP is supposedly a full-time job. Many of us do more than one job or take on private clients. Journalists do it, garage mechanics do it and my bathroom fitter does it.


  120. 119 The Former MP for the Isle of Wight, Dr Brand, carried on doing (medical) surgeries on Fridays so that he could 1) maintain his professional competence, 2) keep in touch with his old patients, and 3) get a different perspective on life on the Island - people are honest with their doctors, but they are only ever rude or fawning towards their MPs.

    Was he wrong to have “two jobs”?


  121. OT
    Ben Brogan reports that Brown is planning to increase borrowing and spend his way out of the UK’s economic quagmire. After all, it worked so well back in the seventies, didn’t it? ;-)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=552488&in_page_id=1770&in_page_id=1770&expand=true#StartComments


  122. Sorry Tim Z, but think he might be - that daft.


  123. 121 That is truly frightening, the man clearly has no idea.


  124. I refuse to accept this as April Fool’s nonsense. I want to see Boris at his rightful place at the Dispatch Box!

    If Cameron doesn’t let him do it, it only shows how afraid of Boris he is.


  125. I refuse to accept this as April Fool’s nonsense. I want to see Boris at his rightful place at the Dispatch Box!

    If Cameron doesn’t let him do it, it only shows how afraid of Boris he is.


  126. It is important to incentivise medical professionals sufficiently that they wish to become and stay medical professionals in the UK system, and £250,000 a year seems reasonable for an upper tier member of the medical profession. It isn’t exorbitant when one compares it to the upper tier of the legal and accounting professions, for example.


  127. 104. **** UNRESERVED APOLOGY **** UNRESERVED APOLOGY ****

    Sorry …. :cry:

    If I’d have known :(

    Not really my fault …. honest !!!!!!!!!


  128. On topic. Analogy time. It’s the Crucible. Final frame of the Snooker World Championship. Only the pink and the black are left in play (weirdly apt!). Hillary comes to the table. But she needs three snookers. Pink and black are touching cushions on opposite ends of the table.

    If she wins PA by less than 10% - make that four snookers.

    If she wins PA by more than 20% - make that two snookers.

    How many snookers does she have to be behind before she puts her cue on the table?


  129. 27: Howard Stoate hasn’t given up being a a GP, he’s still a partner in a surgery in Bexleyheath (like Peter Brand did as Augustus points out at 120)


  130. Poll in the grauniad about homphobia.
    The only bit relevant to politics though is this:

    In which party would you expect barriers against becoming a parliamentary candidate (asked of homosexuals)

    Con 89%
    Lab 61%
    LD 47%

    Still a perception that the conservatives are the most homophobic party.


  131. 130 - We are. And the most racist. And the most sexist. And the most Islamophobic.


  132. Will Vince be able to reprise his old role for the LibDems?


  133. Oh I forgot, most ageist and disablist too.


  134. As far as consultants’ pay and the opportunity for private practice is concerned, my understanding is that Nye Bevan said he had ‘Stuffed their mouths with gold’ to bribe them to accept the establishment of the NHS. If they had been restricted to a salary, a large number would not have joined the NHS, in his view. (See wikipaedia).


  135. Icarus: ‘Nick has shown on here many times that he is his own man ‘

    Surely the best April Fool gag of the day. This is the same Nick Palmer who voted against an EU referendum in 2004, presumably because he thought it was a bad idea. Then in 2005, when the government decided it wanted a referendum, he suddenly decided they were a good idea “because I support referendums in principle”.

    Then in 2006 he suddenly changed his mind - interestingly, just after the government changed its mind - and he decided that his principles precluded a referendum, and so he denied us a chance to vote on the EU Constitution.

    When it was pointed out to him that his latest pathetic volte face indicated a careerist halfwit actually devoid of principles, rather than the pioneering Keir Hardie figure he liked to portray, he denied he had ever supported a referendum - until he was forced to eat his own words when I found them on his own website.

    ‘Nick has shown on here many times that he is his own man‘

    Oh dear.

    The truly saddening thing is, Nick is - despite all the above - possibly one of the nicer and more open of Labour MPs, which just goes to show what a complete shower of sh1ts is at present in government. And the Tories aren’t that much better - though at least they are honest on fundamental issues like the governance of the country.

    I used to think MPs were underpaid. Now I wonder if we should pay them at all. Bah humbug to the lot of them. £10,000 kitchens? Grrrr.

    I also think doctors are hideously overpaid. But who is responsible for that? New Labour.


  136. 131, As evidenced by the only party to have had a Female PM, A gay PM and a handfull of Muslims in the HoL and the commons.


  137. 132, interesting question. I know when the PM’s away the Leader of the Opposition usually sends in his deputy, but I don’t know what Cleggnut’s position is. Perhaps he’ll order his entire party to abstain?


  138. (Moderated)


  139. 119 & 120

    Good question re when MPs become ministers.

    I don’t think the other examples given were very good. Mechanics and Bathroom fitters I assume are doing these jobs outside of their normal work hours. They are paid to work set hours for their day job and pressumably get overtime if working extra. That is not comparable to a professional job where you are paid to do the job and not work 8 - 4 like a fitter or mechanci might.

    Journalists are often self employed.

    Regarding Dr. Brand I think that is admirable and I have no objection whatsoever. The point I specifically made was ’substantial’ work outside of a full time job.

    Many MPs have substantial outside commitments and in Barry’s case I fail to see why he should be paid £12,000 extra for working longer hours or be able to generate £102,000 from private work. Most profeesionals in employment are expected to do the hours to do the job and not get overtime and would not have time to do ’substantial’ work outside of this. I have no objection to minor outside interests whatsoever.


  140. (Moderated)


  141. 136, 138, 140 - I would counsel caution. Libel is quite serious.


  142. 140. Surely he was simply ‘unmarried’? :)


  143. 130 From my own knowledge, I’d say that the Conservative Party is the party that puts up the most barriers to heterosexuals becoming MPs.

    38 For its London polls, Yougov prompts Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, or Other. If you say Other, it then offers a choice of parties, so it’s probable that this will understate minor parties. In any case, minor party support is likely to rise as people receive their literature, nearer polling day. Also, there’s no separate voting intention question for the London List seats.


  144. 136/138 - Careful for libel, gentlemem - don’t want Mike being sued, though it’s not like other blogs don’t carry it.

    O/T I for one am quite glad to see ‘test’ back, but am a little surprised by his/her position on barry’s pay.

    I work 80-90 hours per week, and had two full time jobs throughout my MA. I don’t care if Barry earns £100k in private practice after he has met his contractual obligations to the NHS.

    I have much mroe problem with Dentists, who having been trained at the expense of the taxpayer, are able to refuse NHS patients, yet are able to find room when the same patients agree to pay.

    I would demand that any dentist who does not work 30 hours per week for the NHS should be expected to re-pay (pro-rata) the cost of their medical education including the massive taxpayer subsidy, until we alleviate the strain on NHS dentistry that is forcing people abroad to have work done.


  145. (Moderated)


  146. (Moderated)


  147. [141] Heath is dead. You can say what you like about him.


  148. 144 ‘Work’ should have been in inverted commas, given that I have time to write to you all in the middle of the day, sometimes!


  149. 143. Perhaps but in politics, perception is all.

    142. Really?

    Just checked Wikipedia and they said there’s some debate, but it’s been unsubstantiated. Also contained this semi-ironic statement from Derek Conway MP,

    “if there was some secret I’m sure it would be out by now.”


  150. 127 Dear Author of “Jack W” (AOJW from now on), I’m not the biggest fan of your creation but that one did make me laugh.


  151. This week’s PMQ market now available at ladbrokes.

    What will be the topic of the Acting Leader of the Opposition’s first question?

    Economy/Stock Market/Banking 5/1
    Crime/Policing/Prisons 5/1
    National Security/Terrorism/Detention Bill 5/1
    Immigration/Asylum 5/1
    Zimbabwe 8/1
    Iraq/Afghanistan 10/1
    Education 12/1
    London Mayoral Elections 12/1
    ID Cards/Personal Data 14/1
    Health/NHS 16/1
    Green Issues/Environment/Energy 16/1
    Constitutional/Parliamentary Issues 16/1
    Embryo Bill 25/1
    China/Tibet 25/1
    Childcare/Family Issues 25/1
    Post Offices 25/1
    European Union 33/1
    Transport 33/1
    Iran 50/1
    Gambling 100/1


  152. 145, He always seems very miserable to me.


  153. 147 I doubt if Heath was interested in sex at all.


  154. 135″ I also think doctors are hideously overpaid. But who is responsible for that New Labour.”

    Couldn`t agree more no wonder barry is so upset, with such waste.


  155. Isn’t it homophobic to think it libelous to call someone gay?


  156. Zimbabwe question at 8/1 jumps out as excellent value - or is there a reason that an Acting Leader would not lead on Foreign Affairs?


  157. 151. Immigration might be worth a punt, with that Lords Committee reporting.


  158. 147. You don’t go along with that phrase then, what with the dead and speaking ill.


  159. Policng, just because of the stab vest.


  160. 151. Also Childcare/Family at 25/1 looks value as Harman is minister for Women.


  161. 151 especially as it basics endorses Conservative policy and yet again accuses the govt of misleading everyone on the subject.


  162. 155 - no. A person is libelled if a publication exposes them to hatred, ridicule or contempt, causes them to be shunned or avoided, discredits them in their trade, business or profession or generally lowers them in the eyes of right thinking members of society. It is entirely possible to think that there is nothing wrong with being gay but that it would discredit a politician or expose him to hatred, ridicule or contempt. Jason Donovan sued successfully for libel adopting pretty well exactly that line.


  163. 155 - No, I think the accusation could be harmful, whilst wishing that I lived in a country so enlightened that it were not so.

    Also, to accuse a married man of being gay could be said to cast aspertions on his honesty/mental wellbeing, and thus be indirectly defamatory.


  164. O/T Does anybody know what the vote shares of the major parties were in opinion polls about a month out from last years local elections and how that related to what actually happened on the day?

    I know history doesn’t repeat istelf exactly, but if say the polls said last April it was Tory 37%, Labour 33%, Lib Dem 15% and the outcome (using the BBC national calculation) was Tory 40%, Labour 27%, Lib Dem 25% (or whatever) it’d be interesting to guess what today’s polling figures could indicate for the ballot box on 1st May?


  165. 162 Indeed. There’s nothing wrong with having a life-threatening disease, for example, but it can certainly be libellous to describe someone as having a life-threatening disease.


  166. 162 - fascinating. Thankyou. Still seems odd though, since calling someone a ‘Guardian Reade