ICM has Boris just 2% ahead
April 2nd, 2008
After the YouGov surveys showing Boris with 12% and 10% lead respectively there’s an ICM poll out tonight for the Guardian that suggests the race is much closer. When second preferences are taken into account Boris has a margin of just 2%
The first round prediction has Johnson 42%: Livingstone 41%: Paddick 10%
What will be particularly pleasing for the Johnson camp is that he is beating Ken on second preferences. The Guardian notes “….Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they will use their second vote to support Johnson and only 30% will back Livingstone.”
This is very much in line with what YouGov and Ipsos-MORI have already found. The idea that Ken can rely on Lib Dem second choices is not supported by any of the polls.
Before we get too excited it should be noted that this is the first telephone poll ever that has had Ken Livingstone behind in a mayoral race.
All the phone polls that were carried out in 2000 and 2004 reported margins for Ken that were substantially larger than was actually achieved.
This is bound to affect the betting and in anticipation of this poll during the afternoon I have closed down large parts of my Johnson position.
Latest prices can be found here.
Mike Smithson……on holiday!
MessageSpace Advertising
Livingstone will walk this once Bojo’s novelty has worn off.
2 - “once Bojo’s novelty has worn off.” what? In 2012?
One thing I found interesting was the gender split that the Guardian notes. Apparently, Livingstone has a healthy lead amongst women, implying that Johnson leads amongst men.
I’d always thought that this split was usually the other way round, with women tending to vote slightly more for the right-of-centre candidate then men.
Are women more likely to vote?
its a rogue (Smithson rules excepted)
I would guess this is a rogue.
Markets think its a rogue.
Livingstone still able to be backed at 2.86.
Maybe they will move overnight?
Well I did say that Boris might suffer the 1992 effect. People WANT to back Boris but if he doesn’t prove it over the campaign, he’ll lose.
I wonder if he does lose, might cameron not regret not putting up a more serious tory against a clearly rattled Ken, who many have clearly had enough of. Labour seem very worried by the prospect of a Tory victory and someone like Portillo or Rifkind might have done better.
[6] - Well, there’s no convincing event to explain an 8-odd point move, so the market is stuck with comparing a couple of Yougov polls with an ICM one. Perhaps the herd is sniffing the air?
I’ve been saying that you right Ken off at your peril. He’s a fantastic campaigner. He’s an out and out survivor. He’s a street fighter. And he has an almost unexplainable (for non Londoners) hold of many voters. He should never, ever be written off.
That said, I believe Johnson has a good chance of beating Ken and this will be a fight to the very last vote. Nobody is going to “walk” this contest.
And however this turns out, the very fact Livingstone has got the fight of his life going on right now shows how bad Labour overall position is. If a one man election winning machine and Labour outsider like Livingstone is struggling, what on earth will happen to Gordon Brown at the general election? :O
[7] - Who would you suggest? No Tory particularly wanted to take it on - Livingstone looked as though he would be impossible to shift. Given the context that existed many months ago, Boris* has done a damn fine job [even if I do have to grit my teeth to say so].
* Or at least his media image.
3 - I agree, the gender split is at odds with other polls. And the white/ethic minority ratio may overstate Ken’s position when likelihood of voting is factored in.
Ken was suffering when sleaze was the main issue. That’s all been brushed under the carpet lately. I expect (and hope) it will re-emerge.
I am not convinced the poll is weighted.
“The ICM poll was carried out from March 28 to April 1 using traditional telephone interviews. It reflects the views of a sample of 1,002 London voters who reflect the capital’s demographic profile, including 29% non-white voters….
There is a clear split between non-white voters, 64% of whom say Livingstone has been a good mayor, and white voters at 46%. That suggests the key to a third Labour victory lies in getting the vote out in London’s diverse inner-city constituencies, while Tory support is highest in outer London.”
As I posted on the last thread it seems highly unlikely that turnout with Labour’s core and in the inner cities will approach that of Conservative core in the suburbs. Does it ever, in any national poll?
GIN, I just want to say right now that I have written Ken off. If I’m wrong, so be it. But I think he’s resembling heated bread around now.
13. I guess we’ll see. Ken has been struggling up to now, I admit, but I just feel there a lot left to this contest.
10. Even a relatively unknown Tory may have worked. Boris has been doing things under the radar, a surprise for such a high profile figure. Someone with a good background, good with voters, not necessarily a politician, would have done.
13 I don’t think you can write him off, but it’s a huge turnaround from Populus showing 58:42 in his favour in 2004.
Oh and I should just make clear I’m not speaking as Ken supporter or anything. I very much leaning to the Conservatives at the moment and think Cameron and Johnson would both make good leaders for Britain and London respectively.
1 — Like the US and UK “walked” the occupation of Iraq, Gabble?
11. Black Tory candidate for the GLA, James Cleverly, wrote about encouraging black Britons to use the vote and the current turnout problem in this group of voters
“But what cannot be ignored is that the level of voter turnout amongst “Black Britain” is the lowest of any other group in the UK and this worries me deeply. When voter numbers fall it plays into the hands of extremists, they are rewarded not so much by the passion of their supporters but by the apathy of those that oppose them.”
http://jamescleverly.blogspot.com/2004/08/black-britons-to-lose-voting-rights.html
If the sample is unweighted for likelihood to vote it becomes less reliable
I’ve always thought this would narrow as the race develops ( the most amazing number of people just don’t engage with local government elections till much closer tll polling day) and as a Johnson victory becommes credible. I suspect we’ll see a bit of a Kinnock effect in 1992. Everyone hated the Tories but some people just couldn’t stomarch the mental image of Kinnock in Downing St.
That said i thin we may be comparing a You Gov internet poll apple with an ICM telephone Orange. As a Ken sympathiser I must be cautiuos not to belive this just because I want to.
I await the MORI with interest!
1 walk what.. the plank?
i would think that off the back of this poll Boris should move back to a 4/6 shot with Ken around 7/4.
Mike , you have said on numerous occasions that you can`t remember the conservative party loose a major election when 12% ahead, with 6 weeks to go.
Could this be the first in living memory?
O/T but fascinating (and THE topic for many people with a mortgage…)
A list of UK sub-prime mortgages by constituency in this link, almost all Labour, but very interesting which conservative MP appears first!
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=72776
back to lurking…
Jon
22. timmo. I’ll back both with you please!
I have been assuming all day and given how erroneously favourable ICM have been to Ken in 04, this is a holiday poll and the “Guardian effect” that Leavingsoon would be way ahead in this poll. Its astonishing BoJo has maintained his lead. I think this is all good news for Boris the split of second preferences favours him and the fact it “appears” close will certainly help his turnout. We will have to see but the weighting certainly also points in his favour.
Is this the best the Grauniad an do? Coupled with Michael Whites vomit inducing spinning of the Harperson’s modest performance at PMQ’s it seems they are desperate.
StJohn-Apologies it should be the 4/7 boris and 6/4 Ken
21. And send ye to Davey Cameron’s lockerrrrrrrr (or cabinet)
23. No.
Over at Sky News Blog Jon Craig seems to have been given ‘insider info’ on the mayoral polls suggesting a 6 point lead after what seems like a rehash of You Govs figures.
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/
So everyone has it in for YouGov?
25: Interesting point. You might find, however, that ICM didn’t poll on the 2004 mayoral election at all.
Does anyone know why my name always appears in blue [not that I am complaining]?
28.
Sorted.
30, ICM conducted a poll in Februrary 04 for campaigning group Mind the Gap which was the first full scale voting intentions poll of the last Mayoral campaign.
30. No they didn’t but Populus did, who use much the same methods and who were, as it turned out, too ‘kind’ to Ken.
33. I stand corrected.
29. The crazy Nu-Labour spin attack on the you gove poll is bizzare. I guess they are pre-empting the clear problems with ICM’s today but the other point I suppose is to ensure the Livingstone core don’t think it has already gone and not bothering to vote.
Other than this I can’t think attacking a poll sways voters. Its just an act of self-delusion.
Help!
When Boris leads by 12% its a good poll for the Tories. When his lead is cut to 1% its a good poll for the Tories.
Would somebody kindly explain, please?
Malcolm
Given that Boris and Ken are both prats in their own unique ways, I’m astonished that Paddick is not doing better. But the LD’s fabled election skills seem to flouder in London Mayoral elections.
25 no but if you were reading earloier you would see that they use almost exactly the Populus methodology..aplogies for lack of clarity..
31
Have you put a ‘t’ in the ‘website’ input box in the ‘leave a comment’ area?
Your name links to the (nonsense) url http://t/
37. Certainly. You see, Ken was meant to be unbeatable. No Tory has come close to unseating him. A lead over him, whether 2 or 10%, is therefore good for the Tories, with the range rising from merely excellent to the full stupendous.
36. If the Mori results were so good, why not show his hand.
If they are spinning a rehash at 6% it may suggest that their own private polling a few points above 6.
I take the view that this is Boris’ to lose. As others have said, this particular pollster, this methodology, from a poll taken during the Easter holidays; and still Boris wins!
Admittedly by a smaller margin than expected but given the other factors I would still make him clear favourite.
Like Mike, I have Boris to win at about an average of Evens. Like PtP I thought Livingstone was a good thing in early betting but missed the early “value” so I have not been playing catch up.
I haven’t had Mike’s stakes but stand to win a good amount on Boris. If it all looks like going pear-shaped I should be able to cancel. But for now I’m sticking with Boris with a saver position on Paddick.
31 Sally I think its a conspiracy to mark all true blues.
No that can`t be right as 80% of posters on here, names would appear marked as blue.
Michael White’s defence of Harman is hilarious. However she went down well with her own MPs and luckily for her I doubt many members of the public will see the footage.
‘what cannot be ignored is that the level of voter turnout amongst “Black Britain” is the lowest of any other group in the UK’
Written by some Tory boy, I suppose.
Mark it down to another failure of governments led by old white men [including one, M Thatcher.]
Malcolm
40. Cheers
Anybody seen francis around here? I still think my tenner at evens for the Paddick to finish ahead of the EDP bloke is good money. Not sure if francis has registered the bet with Mike.
48 I have no record of it, SBS.
49 - I emailed Mike, but should I have emailed you?
37 Help
Now you know what us Tories went through when Cameron, in his early weeks, had a string of good poll numbers which were rubbished on this site by many (who know who they are).
Harriet was poor, but better than Brown.
Excellent. Perfect [Tory] result.
41 Test for Test.
“Ken was meant to be unbeatable”
Who meant him to be unbeatable? God, perhaps? Or his mother?
Was he expected to be unbeatable because he was very good? If he was very good why would anybody oppose him? Surely, if he wasn’t very good then he would be eminently beatable.
Baffled again.
Malcolm
53. Because only the very best reach high office.
I don’t believe that ‘others’ will poll so low as the polls seem to be suggesting. 19% of Londoners voted for the Greens, UKIP et al in the 04 election. Won’t be so high this time because there were special factors but I still thing these polls are showing very low numbers for ‘others’.
I haven’t seen PMQs but I heard an extract on Radio 4’s PM. On that basis she did very well and won on points.
But as others predicted, if she did do well then that isn’t a win for Brown. She was quite humourous and quick witted. Qualities that attract; qualities Brown lacks.
I feel sorry for YouGov. All they have done is produce a poll, and they are being given a sustained kicking, just because their result deviates from what Labour and their media friends want to see. I take Anthony Wells as the orace on matters of polling, and if he says the YouGov poll was fine, then thats who I’m going to listen to.
Telephone poll. Zero value - even more so in London than elsewhere. There will be an absurd degree of Labour bias in the sample.
It would be a complete shame if Boris wins because the guy is a baffoon.
However what is interesting is the partisan nature of politics. People would rather vote for a monkey, or in this case a lazy baffoon if it has their colours nailed to the mast rather than a serious politician with a good record.
Seeing Boris the oaf as Mayor would be funny for about 5 mns. After then it would be excruciating.
But there again watching Brown as PM has been like watching a ship wreck going down slowly.
A word of warning to my partisan friends on pbCOM. You may well enjoy seeing Bozza being elected for about half a second. After then many of you will wish it hadn’t happened.
Why Portillo didn’t run, or Ken Clarke, Chris Patten, Ann Widdecome, Mathew Parris- you had plenty of colourful alternative candidates that like Boris would win, and (unlike Boris) would have made good, competent Mayors.
Boris Johnson is an effing embarrasment of the worst kind. Tories enjoy.
53
Castro was unbeatable too
59. Of course with such low expectations as that, it wouldn’t take much for Johnson to impress.
20-”Everyone hated the Tories”
Speak for yourself!!! I have hated Labour ever since I can remember though, even pre 1992 and in 1997. I have tried to bring myself to “hate” the LDs but can’t bring myself to it.
Oh yes, I hate Hllary, (and Bill), and try (and fail) to hate Obama.
44. I like blue and will stay that way for ever and ever and ever…
57. Ditto.
I trust francis is not “welshing” on his bet. The EDP would chuck him out for being anti-English.
Tyson. The primary purpose of PB.com is to make money betting on politics. By this light we are amoral. A profit is what we are after. The consequences are for others.
Tyson - I agree with your choices, but i draw the line at Widdicombe.
She can be refreshinly frank for a politician, but she’s quite barking.
64 SBS - Some people like to use the sites Recorded Wagers section and email me so that a third party has the details. There’s nothing though that anybody can do about somebody walking away from a bet.
I expect Francis has just forgotten.
59. Well what you fail to realise is that most Conservatives simply don’t agree with you. Yes reservations but (as with many things) you are just wrong that he is an idiot and considering the alternative is bloody Ken Livingstone for heavens sake he can’t do any worse than that.
Boris will be great for London and great for the Conservatives.
59, Whats wrong with that, a monkey won in Hartlepool, why shouldn`t Londoners take the piss out of politics, the same.
67 - I am sure he has forgotten. When he pops up I will remind him. Thanks.
53 - Like Gordon Brown and George W Bush?
Malcolm
Clinton gasps again as ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ eases to 9.5 !!
http://www.slate.com/id/2188003/
71 After Bush’s second win, a guy was pictured holding up a sign saying,
To The Rest of The World
‘Sorry. We tried’
From
Half of America.
69- right- that is what I think- most will be putting that cross against Bozza with a big grin, or having downed a few pints. Voting Boris is one big “f u” to politics.
68- you must have downed a few pints already.
65- at the moment I am up about 500 squid on Bozza, but I like to use pbCOM to air some personal views (mostly spot on I might add)
66- Widdecombe- yeh, a bit bonkers, but she is just a fantastic, committed consituency MP, and would have taken the job of mayor bloody seriously.
66 - Widdy is a great constituency MP of 20 years. When she announced she was standing down the local opposition politicians paid a pretty warm tribute to her in the Kent Messenger.
This could be a very good test of which pollster has the best approach to testing voters intentions.
A larger internet sampler Vs A telephone poll weighted on “last time”.
Yougov and ICMs reputations are on the line.
62 “Speak for yourself!!! I have hated Labour ever since I can remember though, even pre 1992 and in 1997. ”
Do you remmeber the 70s? TV going off halfway through your favorite program…having to keep milk in a bucket of water because the fridge had no electricity…
Hate is a strong word - but I do hate warm goppy milk.
Thank goodness that M.Thatcher was sent to stop small children being forced to drink milk that had been left in the sun.
I see the BNP are supporting Boris Johnson now:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/02/london08.london
and only allowed to take £100 out of the country.
78. He has already said, ‘NO thank you!’.
and if you had any money paying 89% income tax
81 There was a 98% tax on ‘unearned’ income, ie interest and investments.
75-SBS- widders- was a great MP.
Widdecombe also was a great example of Tory bollox- underneath that silly ideological rhetoric, when faced with real people with real problems she was as liberal, humane, left wing, pro state as anyone in my book. What she did for individuals in Maidstone was incredible,
What is also clear from both polls is that there is a two party squeeze underway and the Lib Dems and Others are suffering.
77-Luckily I don’t remember fair taxation of 98% or seeing dead people unburied.
But I do agree with you, hate is a strong word much bandied about…
73-No doubt that guy was one of the ones who threatened to emigrate to Canada/NZ/Land over the Rainbow… Bet he’s still in the US.
85 Many of Labour’s Undead Army visit this very site.
86 Ha ha, good one Mr Horse!!
87- excuse me- about as funny as finding an anthill in your skidders.
Sorry Horsey but you do not strike me as having the world’s greatest sense of humour.
“I don’t think you can write him off, but it’s a huge turnaround from Populus showing 58:42 in his favour in 2004.”
That was on all preferences being allocated Sean! The first preference poll numbers were Livingstone 42, Norris 32, a 10-point lead compared to an 8-point lead on election day.
84. Which means an awful lot of people don’t understand the SV system.
90 - and also shows that Ken can’t hope to win while second prefs split for Boris.
If Boris drifts I’m in for more.
48. And the headline “EDs even money to beat the Lib Dems” would be well worth the cost of the bet.
Man, have to leave PB to attend to vital business for a few days, and look what happens:
1. In Dublin, Bertie Ahern announces his impending retirement
2. In Pennsylvania, Barrack Obama takes a polling lead
3. In London, another poll shows Ken ahead of Boris
I thought that only Paddick could win here, two horse race etc? The LibDems will be badly damaged by this; I’ve seen Paddick’s election material and he could well be humiliated by this.
Looking at the Electoral System survey, there is only one system which passes the four most top-ranked qualities of Monotonicity, Simplicity, Later-No-Harm and Majority - and that is good old FPTP…!
However FPTP fails the next two most-favoured properties, Clone Independence and the Condorcet Loser Criterion, which voters also rated as above “Fairly Important.”
But for its occasional Monotonicity failures, the Alternative Vote (AV), and only AV, meets all the properties rated as “Fairly Important” or higher…
Monotonicity failure is the clear stumbling block for most people. Quite understandable, but I wonder if they could be persuaded to trade the possibility of a very rare Monotonicity Failure for the benefits of avoiding Clone and Condorcet Loser failure.
I guess I’ll have to dream up some more examples…
Just looking at Betfair the total amount traded so far on the Mayoralty has been £152,829. My own personal betting in this market amounts to £3,318 or more than 2%.
Anything on London Assembly seats?
I would expect minimum movement, maybe Tories +1 (constituency), BNP +1 (?), Labour -1, UKIP -2, random seat jig +2
O/T- Funny, looking at the BBC’s page it was all about UKIP (who?) putting the Tories under pressure. Thank God the BBC is truly “independent”. Nothing on Labour’s Euro score of 22.6%!
93 no poll so far as i know has ken ahead????????????????
93 I know, SSI, we can’t be left alone for 2 minutes.
93-Which poll is showing Ken ahead?
95 - So what you are saying is FPTP is best? Excellent. A marvellous survey and I commend this statement to the house
96- Mike- I just looked at the market and was shocked about how little is on it. About 150k- bugger all
88 Yes but you are a leftie. Lefties have no sense of humour.
Remember when Britain was famous for it’s humour & comedy? That was before Zanu NuLab’s Political Correctness.
Last week the police interviewed Basil Brush.
103-Did they arrest him for calling a police horse “gay”?
103 But then you never see the undead grin. Well, apart from our dear leader of course who seems to have one stitched into place.
104 The guy getting arrested for calling a horse gay somes up the facism of Zanu NuLab.
It also demonstrates Zanu NuLab’s inate homophobia. The student was paying the horse a compliment.
105 Gordon Brown’s grin is creepy.
It looks like the mind of an excited 12 yr old stalin in the body of a 66 yr old man with power - which would make for disturbing horror movie.
Any sign of this MORI ? Do we know who has commisioned it or is it the Monthly standing one?
107-I did like his grin when leaving Downing Street back in May 2006 when he had finally got St Tony to commit to a get-out date. The time when Charles Clark called it “stupid, bloody stupid” or words to that effect.
(Just occurred to me, haven’t been in the UK since the Happy One’s been in charge.)
At least did get to see David Letterman last night.
Recently he’s been doing a schtick that goes, “John McCain looks like the guy who [is a superannuated geezer]”
So during last night’s monologue he said:
–”John McCain looks like the guy who makes keys at the hardware store.”
–”Jon McCain looks like the guy who comes into town to buy turpintine.”
At which point who comes on stage? John McCain.
Who replied thusly to Letterman:
–”You look like the guy whose laptop was seized by the authorities.”
–”You look like the guy who’s the night clerk at some creepy motel.”
–”You look like the guy who the neighbors all say mostly kept to himself.”
Unfortunately fell asleep during Letterman’s acutual conversation with JMcC thanks to the latter’s monotone, which could be invaluable to insomniacs!
109 Then there was the shot of drooling Brown sitting in the buggy with G.W. He could barely believe he was with MR PWESIDENT OF AMEWICA! I wouldnt be surprised if he had a 2″ woody
http://ruthsharpe.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/313483.jpg
John McCain is an excellent inspirational orator.
And yeah he is old and gray - but he is a war hero and his hair did turn white because of his treatment as a POW, having his bones broken, beaten & bayoneted.
Yes, being a selfless war hero does play hell on your looks.
phoneys like letterman make cheap gags - but when the voters get a chance to listen to him, I’m guessing they will make their own mind up
How many of the people in the telephone poll aren’t even registered to vote?
Nobody in the media has picked up on this but it is extraordinary that despite significant population growth in England since the year 2000, there has been almost no growth at all in the total electorate.
Thus there are an increasing number of people not registered to vote. And I suspect many of them will be people living in London.
89 So, there is a 9% swing from Labour to Conservative, comparing Populus/ICM, and a 10% swing, according to Yougov.
93, Other way round in fact. So that’s four polls in a row putting Boris ahead, and, crucially, getting the Second Preferences to break in his favour.
104. Are we supposed tpo be getting a MORI poll tonight then?
Mike suggests a couple of threads ago that we are getting a MORI tonight but as ever with things its not definate.
Only reason anyone pays that worthless turd W the slightest mind is because of his office.
He has reduced himself to a national joke. Even people who still profess to support him cannot be bothered with the twerp.
Whatever the failings of Gordon Brown, he is and will always be W’s superior. Which ain’t saying much, but it’s a fact nevertheless.
BBC reporting that Gordon Brown is under pressure from china to greet the olympic flame in a high profile way this week. what odds on it going out when he touches it?
116. Thanks.
We haven’t heard anything from MORI all through March, so we’re certainly due something….
117 “Whatever the failings of Gordon Brown, he is and will always be W’s superior. ”
The picture suggests otherwise.
Re Mori - Mike thinks it may be out tomorrow.
Sheepdip 81.Get it right- 98% i.e. Confiscation over a certain level.”So what” I hear someone saying.
bit quiet around here tonight. Where is everybody?
How did Harriet Hymen’s performance go down with the evening news?
96. Mine is £350 - around 0.23% of the market !!
Strange how this event, happening within 4 weeks, is attracting so litte money..
118 - Even I as a non-protester type has actively considered trying to douse the Olympic torch as a symbolic protest at Communist China. Surely someone will do it before August?
Anthony has done his first post on the ICM - but he has only a limited review until the tables are up.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1159#comments
123. “How did Harriet Hymen’s performance go down with the evening news?”
:shock: 
That’s a bit base isn’t it?!
95. The classic indictment against Monotonicity Failure goes something like this:-
“President Smith has failed in his re-election bid. The only way that yesterday’s election differed from the one that elected Smith is that some people who’d previously ranked Jones in 1st place, this time ranked Jones in LAST place. President-elect Jones gave his acceptance speech at 1:00 a.m., Eastern Time.”
123. Wasn’t even a story on the BBC 10. Their second item was all mortgage doom and gloom, though.
117 I’m intrigued. Who’s “that worthless turd W?”
Ahem! lots of breaking of Smithson’s law I notice.
What we could be seeing is a fine example of, ‘Kinnock’s Syndrome’ ‘Yeah I gonna vote for Kinnock, lets get that bloody awful woman out’ then ‘Well I’m not so sure, I mean, are we ready to get rid of her?’ then ‘Well perhaps the devil you know’
Sky News reporting that Labour MP’s are feeling really chipper, (till the next poll that is) Harmon, toast of the bars: time for the, ‘Blue Harpies’ to take a reality check perhaps.
p.s.
Boris don’t do a Sheffield, and stop hiding, tell that Aussie to let you off your leash.
[131] W is Tony Blair’s nickname - on account of the W engraved on his forehead.
Just got back from the Time Out BoJo No-Show. Pretty good crowd reception for Ken and Sian. Paddick bombed surprisingly apart from on police and there was one guy in a Back Boris t-shirt reading out heckles from a print-out. Crowd got quite hostile to him towards the end especially when he started shouting: ‘I have some very important things to say about the BNP.’ Good fun, but would have been better with Boris there obviously.
133 I thought he had 666 engraved on his forehead.
“Sky News reporting that Labour MP’s are feeling really chipper”
Ever heard of gallows humour?
[135] Probably under his hair. Notice where his hair is receding, you can see 2 circular bumps - where his horns will sprout.
136 they must be ecstatic that a non-entity deputy outshone the bloke leading into the next election! hahahaha
137 I thought he’d had his horns amputated, to avoid upsetting the voters.
132. Chippier? Ha ha ha. Any signs whatsoever that Labour are going to win the next election? Any at all?
136
I expect better from you sean!
Surely you must be concerned that your candidate, is not coming out fighting and is being hidden by his Aussie minder.
Ken is bound to start goading Boris over this!
After all Boris with his HIGNFY background, should understand the significance of a, ‘Tub of Lard’ someone is bound to produce one soon.
134
I notice the, ‘BoJo No Show’ is catching on, do I get royalties.
[139] amputated? or just ’sleeping’ under the skin.
He even plays guitar!
See this picture and decide for yourself.
No you silly old fool. Isn’t it time for your cup of cocoa?
141,142 He’s appeared at lots of hustings. Sensibly, for a front runner, he doesn’t appear at stitch-ups organised by his opponents.
144 Cup of cocoa! I’ve just polished of half a bottle of Wincarnis!!
143 in Revelations, he will ‘return’ to rule Europe after 7 yrs of drought and famine - although once rejected, he will return as a saviour.
But dont take it too seriously
This is a very good poll for Ken. Everyone and his dog has been writing him off for the last few weeks and there’s little in it. The media swings around and I think there will be a lot more scrutiny of Boris in the next few weeks.
I was struck by the Evening Standard article today that had Boris on the ropes apologising for an article in the Spectator when he was editor.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/
It even had all of Boris’ horror quotes in it too (water melon smile etc.). As we know this is the most anti-Ken newspaper out there. The media hunt in packs and it could be Boris’ turn now. He’s going to have to prove himself as a front-runner to win this thing. My knowledge about Boris is limited, but what I’d like to know has he ever fought for anything in his life? As we all know Ken Livingstone has had the kitchen sink thrown at him from the right and the media during the 80s and from New Labour in 1999 and 2000.
Can Boris stand up to it? Perhaps, but we don’t know for sure. He’s certainly not going to have it handed to him on a plate and he can’t be seen avoiding hustings - particularly if a Tory charge against Ken is around a lack of accountability. The big challenge for Ken is to win a majority of the Paddick second preferences. I think the BNP’s call for backing Johnson may unnerve more than one or two Lib Dems - what Lib Dem wants to be second preferencing Johnson alongside the BNP? This won’t show up on the polls.
Does all the race stuff matter? Maybe not. But what it could do, more subtley, is distances Johnson from modern London. He’s not a Londoner, has a seat in Henley and if I were a Londoner I’d want my Mayor to live and breathe London. And say what you like about Ken, he is Mr London. He helped deliver the Olympics for London and when the horrors of 7/7 took place, it was Ken Livingstone’s remarks that moved me the most. And I don’t even like London.
Four weeks to go before the electon. All to play for.
[148] how many londoners want the olympics on their doorstep? The congestion, the mega-mosque, shop keepers charging 5quid for a can of coke…
There is a chance that many of those polled, dont even have a vote.
Being serious for a moment, (I do that sometimes).
Most of the city’s voters think that he has done a good job, even if they do not intend to back him this time. Overall, 51% of those questioned think Livingstone has been good for London, against 39% who say he has been bad.
That is surely the interesting thing from the poll, that coupled with the BNP giving second preferences to Johnson, may bring out the ethnic vote for Ken,:but its anybody’s guess!
PPP PA POLL
Obama’s lead in the latest PPP poll is very interesting, to say the least. Even with all standard caveats. Just checked the press release.
Unfortunately there was no geographic breakdown. But would expect that Obama was ahead by significant margin in Philadelphia, suburbs and well as the city; also perhaps slightly ahead in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh & immediate suburbs). Clinton is likely still leading strongly in the rest of the state, including the SW PA rustbelt; Scranton (locale for the US version of “The Office”) surrounding counties in NE PA; and the howling wilderness in between (those of you who have drive I-80 know what I mean).
“Does all the race stuff matter? Maybe not. But what it could do, more subtley, is distances Johnson from modern London. He’s not a Londoner, has a seat in Henley and if I were a Londoner I’d want my Mayor to live and breathe London. And say what you like about Ken, he is Mr London. He helped deliver the Olympics for London and when the horrors of 7/7 took place, it was Ken Livingstone’s remarks that moved me the most. And I don’t even like London.”
And that concludes tonight’s Party Political Broadcast for the Labour Party.
[152] Most Londoners are immigrants.
So what if Boris is just another immigrant?
148. You used an awful lot of words to say bugger all there..try Coldstone’ approach..he uses much less words to say bugger all…
Leavingsoon and ZaNu Labour are finished ..the Lefties just haven’t realised it yet and the Leftist media is summoning one last frustrated pitiful scream against the storm with dodgy opinion polls and desperate and intelelectually incoherent articles from the usual suspects.
It is very amusing to watch the dawning realisation that they are losing and that the country has finally realised the utter failure of NuLabour.
Does all that race stuff matter?
http://tinyurl.com/ytuhc6
Well It does to some people obviously.
Sean Fear, did you see the picture of Tony Blair
I’m off to beddydyes. Dont have nightmares
113
My friend Rockey from Florida is an ardent Republican and has never missd voting. His view of McCain is interesting. In November, he tells me, he will not be voting for McCain. He says that he isn’t going to vote for the guy who got shot down, he’d be happier to vote for the guy that was good enough to shoot the other guy down. And he’s deadly serious.
Malcolm
PPA PA POLL
One intersting thing were the “most important issues to you” cited by supporters of Clinton & Obama:
Issues: Iraq Educ Jobs Taxes Values Health Immig Other
Clinton 40% 28% 47% 52% 23% 51% 46% 14%
Obama 46% 66% 42% 32% 50% 38% 31% 59%
Undecided 14% 5% 11% 16% 27% 11% 23% 27%
Note that on Iraq and jobs/the economy they are pretty close, with Obama having a slight edge on the first issue and Clinton on the other. Fact that Hillary’s advantage is getting thin with voters most concerned with economy is not good news for her.
Further note that only 28% of Clinton’s supporters cited education, compared to 66% of Obama’s voters. Am guessing one thing this means is that Obama is making serious gains with woman with children.
And Hillary’s advantage among voters very concerned about health care (her signature issue) is more than offset methinks by Barrack’s even stronger advantage when it comes to moral values.
157 - So clearly he didn’t vote for Poppy Bush in ‘88 or ‘92! After all, he was shot down in the Pacific during WWII.
104. Had to reply re. the sense of humour. You think it’s just lefties that don’t have one? Margaret Thatcher was famously short of a sense of humour.
I once listened to Robert Runcie speaking and he said loudly that ‘no-one without a sense of humour should be allowed to run anything’. Then, so quietly that only us in the front row heard, he muttered ‘especially not this country’.
She was infamous for it, but then Brown and Thatcher share a number of features in common - especially their puritanical backgrounds.
153 - Speaking of immigrants, how does the Turkish community in London - including Turkish Cypriots - regard Boris, who (if I’ve got this right) has some Turkish heritage?
157
Your friend obviously knows very little about military aviation!
McCain was flying a Skyraider, a piston engined ground attack aircraft, it had no fighter capability at all. Up against the main NV airforce fighter at that time. Mig17/19 it would have been a, ‘Dead Duck,’
151 Shanty
The Bob Casey endorsement in PA is huge. The white catholic male voters have been looking for a reason not to vote for ‘that woman’ - [sadly a way of speaking of her in the south.] Parts of central PA are northern Alabama, as they say. I believe that Casey’s endorsement, the family is adored by Democrats in the state, will actually swing votes, particularly for those voters who wanted to have a reason to change their minds.
I find it hard to believe that Clinton won’t win in Pennsylvania, but I’m starting to believe that it will be closer.
The more voters see of Clinton, the less they like her; the more they see of Obama the more they like him. Still plenty of time.
Malcolm
157 - Is he also a total moron? I would have to say that one thing you can’t throw at McCain is his war record.
Words almost fail me.
159
Flying A Grumman TBF Avenger a Torpedo bomber, again no fighter capability.
O/T - was absolutely disgusted as a republican that Vince in PMQs today had his question on the queen / economy refused. Cromwell would be turning in his grave to see that some 450 years later, parliament still does not sanction mention of the head of state without prior notice, what a disgraceful state for an early 21st century democracy to be in!
I’ll be so happy when speaker Martin falls on his sword, the first speaker I can remember was good old Bernard Weatherall. I liked all of them, particularly Betty prior to the current speaker, anything but Mr Martin I say.
On another note, quietly sitting on the sidelines whilst the dollar/pound and the stock market perform a classic bear market rally whilst the news gets worse on a daily basis economically-wise. Was reading last night that one loan tranche of Washington Mutual (big US mortgage company) debt was sliced and diced as 92% AAA, in a year 4% of the properties were owned by WM, a further 13% were in the process of foreclosure, and another 25% of the mortgages were 2 months or more in arrears. So what was sold on as practically AAA had 43% of it’s principal in default or near-default after just 1 year! Even the economics of the madhouse is benign compared to that! This bear market rally could go further yet, average bear market rally lasts 4 months, but when the next down leg comes, be prepared for some drama.
As an Obamamaniac I have hoped and probably at times predicted an unexpected final and lethal success in one of the many primary contests we have all been glued to over the last few months. My logic was that as his candidacy prevailed and his inevitability became apparent that the electorate would coalesce behind the winner and bring the election to a conclusion. I suspect I made this spurious argument at the time of the Ohio primary. The electorate would wish to play their part in history in anointing the inevitable candiadate.
Well, if I did make that argument, and i think I did, I am not about to amke the same mistake again as Pennsylyvania approaches. But in case it happens, here is the explanation!
162
My friend served in the Navy. Where did you serve? I think he was speaking allegorically.
159
He thought Poppy Bush was a Republican, he doesn’t have the same view of McCain. He’s one of that large group of Republicans who hate the man.
More thoughtfully, if Obama and McCain split the Indies then I guess it will come down to who can get out the base. Clintonistas and McCain-haters will play a huge role in their respective parties. The big advantage for the Dems is that they won’t have H Rodham Clinton on their ticket. Also could Mark Warner have coat-tails for Obama in Virginia? Interesting times.
Malcolm
164 “Is he also a total moron?”
No, a millionaire.
Malcolm
166 - its not it’s - my former English teacher will be disgusted
Horror line-up for Question Time tomorrow:
“The panel includes the secretary of state for international development Douglas Alexander, Conservative shadow leader of the House of Commons Theresa May, Liberal Democrat spokesperson for innovation, universities, and skills Sarah Teather, independent MP for Birmingham Clare Short, and broadcaster and commentator Rod Liddle.”
If a black hole spontaneously formed in the studio, would a tear be shed to think that none of them would ever be heard from again?
171 - that does sound good fun, I don’t know but I’ve always found something bizarelly attractive about Clare Short. I might disagree with her on no end of things but at least she stood up and was counted, even though she resigned 2 months too late. And what outfit will the maid be wearing? Didn’t like the brown leather jacket today at PMQ’s!
Humor & Gordon Brown
Must say that he’s not over-endowed. His biography of James Maxton is a case in point.
Maxton was a fiery socialist and fierce champion for the workers & poor of Glasgow - and Lord knows they needed one. Yet Maxton also had wit, personality, integrity and humanity that was extremely appealing to his political rivals, including many very conservative Tories. In particular he appears to have charmed knights of the shire, old Etonians & etc.
Brown’s bio certainly discusses the mutual affection that existed between Maxton and his Glagwegian constituents. Yet there is nothing (or next to it) about the fact that he was by the end of his life one of the most beloved MPs by his fellow MPs, thanks in large measure to his wit and humor.
169 - I don’t tip my forlock to cash. I’m not an MP.
I still suggest that throwing a man’s military record at him after he servedhis country proudly to the point of refusing to be handed over early from a South-East Asian PoW camp is disgraeful.
Allegorical? It didn’t read that way in your original post.
173.The irony is that some thought Brown would at least be popular on his home turf, its been quite the reverse.
I have lost count of the amount of fellow Scots who simple say they don’t like him. Best of all, a couple have then gone on to wax lyrical about Blair and Smith. Ouch!
Malcolm’s friend sounds like a twit.