Obama takes 2-point lead in Pennsylvania
April 2nd, 2008-
PPP poll shows him ahead by 45-43, trails 49-38 among white voters
A poll out today for Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania shows Obama now leading in a state where Clinton has been enjoying comfortable leads. As ever though, the question is how reliable PPP is as a pollster, and whether this is a reliable indicator or should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Obama is currently available at 3.1 to win the Keystone State on 22 April, so if you think this poll is reliable, that represents outstanding value. Certainly it’s a major turnaround from the last PPP two and a half weeks ago which gave Hillary a 26-point lead.
UK polling update: We may well be getting two polls tonight, a London Mayor one from ICM and a UK one from Ipsos-MORI.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
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Interesting.
Malcolm
From previous thread.
344. “Mind you the World Record inflation was in Serbia which reached 1 x 10 to the power of 47 per cent.(100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%) which is a number so large that we do not even have a name for it.”
How on EARTH is that humanly possible?!
One minute a loaf of bread costs a fiver, the next minute you have to flog your house just to buy a gram of the flour of which it’s made?!
The economy would collapse in hours.
2 - it’s not quite that dramatic. It’s less than 35% a day.
Previous thread.
318. PtP
Apart from me not being clear on the position of your book and how long you’ve held it for, how on earth do you see Ken winning this?
Normally I defer to your judgement 100% but I can’t understand your reluctance to believe Johnson will do it! Probability must be 70%+ for Johnson at least!
I remember you stating that “Ken will win” back in December - is it betting with the heart or head?!
Very surprised if you’re a “heart” man on this
2 I haven’t thought it through properly but your statement re having to sell your house to buy a gram of flour is surely incorrect as the value of your house would presumably have also increased by 10 to the power of 47 as the bread did .
De la Rue print a large number of the world’s banknotes. I wonder if it would be in De la Rue’s interests to cause world hyperinflation - as they would then have to keep printing new denominations of notes…
When does the point arrive at which Clintons support drains away not because her Democrat supporters don’t want her but because they can see she won’t win anyway?
It must come soon, I just cannot see the Dems letting their two star candidates carry on clawing each other to death in the full view of gloating Republicans.
Mind you, that presupposes they have the will and the wit to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and on past performance…..
For Casino, from previous thread….
349 LOL! Sorry, Casino, that was part of an earlier draft that got left up - wasn’t boasting! Or wasn’t meant to be.
Pologies.
3. Hmm. My tongue might have been in my cheek *just* slightly!
2. this basic misunderstanding of statistics also pervades all gleeful BBC coverage of zimbabwe economic meltdown, and is a pet hate of mine.
1×10^47 percent inflation means: adding a zero on the price 47 times a year (i.e. every week and a bit).
200,000% inflation is more like: prices double every 2-3 weeks.
obviously neither represent economic stability! at this point anyone who can is probably dealing in USD or similar.
however, the use of figures is deliberately misleading, and designed to encourage false interpretations such as
“One minute a loaf of bread costs a fiver, the next minute you have to flog your house just to buy a gram of the flour of which it’s made?!”
6-When inflation gets out of control, many central banks just print bearer bonds/cheques/etc. They don’t look like regular banknotes and most have a “redeem by” date.
De La Rue and competitors are normally called in once the inflation rate has been stabilized.
2 etc - my comment on the last thread is possible part of an understanding, although it’s not as bad as you make out mathematically - about 1.25% per hour or 16% per 12hours… (ie overnight!)
344 - Obviously the problem with any of those type of calculations is that it’s pretty impossible to measure - when you have inflation of such magnitude economys pretty much fail to function in any normal manner, and things aren’t available to buy at any price. People are reduced to barter and foreign currency as the
10 - yes, you often see the APRs of loan sharks as being extortionate.
If I lend you £1 and want £1.01 back tomorrow, the APR is over 3000%. A rip off? Depends which way you present the figures. Very short term loans will have very high APRs just to cover the costs.
5/10. Oh dear
People forget that I’m a Mechanical Engineer. I can confirm on a spreadsheet in 30 seconds that SBS is right on the daily rate!
It was a *joke* guys!
Honestly, some people do suffer from a sense of humour failure…
4 Casino
Right, until about two hours ago, I stood to win £300 on either. I’ve been green on this market since very soon after it opened. This was possible because the early prices, particularly with he bookies, were plainly wrong. They were offering Ken at 4/5 when he looked more like a 1/2 shot. I piled in, as did many others apparently because his odds shrunk to about 4/9 very quickly. Soon it was possible to back Boris at 5/2, which I did. Hey presto - all green book. (I could even afford to wste a few quid on no-hoper Paddick, just in case.)
Ever since, I’ve been able to exploit the occasional overreactions. My guess is that the market is currently overestimating The Turk, but we’ll have a better idea soon when the next poll is out.
Betting with the heart? Not guilty! I have a vote - I haven’t yet decided how I’ll use it. I like Boris, but respect Ken’s political ability. Paddick is also plausible. Hard to bet with your heart when you don’t know where it lies.
8. PtP
No worries!!! Glad to see your sense of humour is intact tonight!!
What is your “scenario” for Ken winning if you believe it really is a toss-up?
the fact that it is impossible to measure doesn’t stop one anecdotal story (e.g. “this cost a tenner last week, but i can’t get it for less than £100 now”)
from being turned into a sensationalist story (e.g. “inflation now running at so many million percent there isn’t even a word for it!”) by financially illiterate journalist.
readers will then tell all their mates that in serbia, you have to buy your evening meal in the morning or you won’t be able to afford it, even after selling your house
15. PtP.
Thanks! Sorry if you thought I was insinuating something - just a friendly jibe
16 Oh, it’s pretty instinctive, Casino, but then since I live and work in London I trust my instincts on something like this. I reckon Boris should be about 4/5 but I wouldn’t bet the farm on either. That’s why I plan to keep my book green and not to be too greedy.
18 No probs, casino. I think it was my careless posting that caused the confusion. I don’t lways proof read.
20 …as you can see.
19. I still think Boris could be prone to the Kinnock ‘92 effect. People turning away at the last moment.
Whats the book on him dropping it?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/olympics/7326580.stm
Sorry to lower the tone but does anyone know what Obama has in common with the following?
U.S Presidents
James A. Garfield
Herbert Hoover
Harry S. Truman
Gerald Ford
Ronald Reagan
George H.W. Bush
Bill Clinton
ICM guardian poll tomorrow - Boris 1% ahead.
14 - Fair enough, although I like to think I’m a regular here and didn’t know that you were a Mech Eng - As someone who works in finance I spend quite a bit of time explaining the principle of compounding to the financially illiterate (of whom there are many, even of those working in the City) that I thought it a perfectly normal (incorrect) assumption.
25
Is that a guess?
thanks don - is this the guardian effect? Both firms cannot be right. A 9 point spread is outside the margin of error.
20/21. Eh?
Sorry Peter, I can’t understand your posts
25 Lay Boris, quick.
No - the BBC London political editor just told us on the main regional news programme.
30 …in the betting sense (ahem.)
29 No, nor can I.
28 - Absolutely. One of them is deeply flawed.
30 - I’d wait a bit before laying anything.
31
Thanks Don, nice to know.
25. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!!!
If correct, very nice betting opportunity
19. PtP - fair nuff. Personally, though, for the reasons Mike S has stated, I can’t see Boris *not* winning this, barring an absolute calamity.
Labour turnout will be too depressed, Jasper affair too damaging, Boris too popular, Tory voters too enthused, name recognition too high and the Tory poll lead too high *not* to win.
Remember: An independent and a monkey won Mayoral elections in 2000! Also, the polls have a history of understating Tory support.
I’d even go as far as to say, if the Conservatives can’t win this time, they can *never* win the London Mayoralty.
30. Already laid him PtP!
I’m learning…
Thanks to those who took part in the Electoral System Survey.
For those interested in Electoral Reform, if you haven’t already done so, please take a moment to take this survey.
http://www.zoomerang.com/Survey/?p=WEB227MPV7FHRQ
Provisional Results Ratings.
Monotonicity 6.84
Simplicity 6.81
Later-no-Harm 6.66
Majority Criterion 6.18
Clone Independence 5.29
Condorcet Loser Criterion 5.23
Majority Loser Criterion 4.94
Strategy Resistant 4.51
Condorcet Winner Criterion 4.09
Rather interesting. Obviously (surprisingly) very strong feelings on Monotonicity. Simplicity as expected, and Later-No-Harm. Good support for Majority, nothwithstanding the Hitler/pizza conundrum I exampled. Clone Independence and Condorcet Loser also score above neutral (5). Condorcet Winner brings up the rear.
I’ll post further comments later…
30 Don, the odds suggest a 66% probability Boris will win. I thought that was overegging it a bit even before the poll. Hence my advice.
Interesting piece from Fraser Nelson with two accompanying pdf files over at the Coffee House Blog.
“In tomorrow’s magazine, George Bridges, former campaigns director for Cameron, does for us what politicians do for themselves at election time. He has asked Experian, the credit rating agency, to trawl its vast database and list sub-prime penetration by constituency. Of the 200 worst affected seats, all but 14 are held by Labour. It is, as George puts it, “a punch in the financial solar plexus for those Brown has purported to champion.”
Where are Britain’s unexploded sub-prime bombs?
Betfair a bit slow… No layers yet.
I’m out of Boris. Barely green. Just to be safe
36 Well I won’t be upset if you are right, Casino, from either a political or betting viewpoint.
Note that I do however expect to ’square up’ my book by voting day. With luck, I can do so at a higher level - say, £400 win either way. Looks like this poll will help me.
36 - I suspect there will be several more twists and turns before the mayoral race is over, although I think the ultimate result (a Boris victory) is fairly clear for exactly the reasons you outlined. What is absolutely certain is that there are hordes of mug punters on both sides who will let their hearts rule their heads at every stage.
41 Patience Casino. The City punters are still on their ginandtonix.
39. 70% isn’t it??
I’m sure Betfair will readjust within the next 2 hours or so…
40 that is an excellent post and great analysis
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 46% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105970/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-Clinton-46.aspx
………………………..
On the PPP Pennsylvania poll, I tend to the view that both this and the earlier PPP are outliers. However the trend is clearly in Obama’s direction. PPP were pretty spot on the final results in Texas, Ohio, S.Carolina and Wisconsin, so their polls toward the end of the campaign will be worth taking note of.
44. The £500 available on Betfair to lay at 1.5 now disappearing fast.
Down to £192 and counting….
7 Marcus
I’ll engage with you on the Democrats if no-one else will.
I disagree that both candidates are clawing themselves to death at the moment. All the clawing seems to come from the Clinton side; with Obama attempting to take a statesmanlike pose and trying to rise above it all. His supporters, not the campaign, have been ferocious about Clinton, and with good reason. In fact Obama’s stance has been criticised by many as appearing aloof.
Clinton will stay in as long as it takes. The polls are all over the place at the moment, and so they should be. Here’s a thought though; the more people see of Obama the more they like him; the more they see of Clinton the less they like her; and with McCain, he’s an excellent candidate when out of the public view.
The more I see of this campaign, the more I think that McCain’s long political history of aggression and flip-flopping become obvious, the stronger I feel Obama’s chances become.
Malcolm
47 Thanks Jack.
Yes, the trend is very disappointing for HRC. She simply has to win big, and that’s not looking likely.
47 Apologies to my hero JackW - who will talk to anyone, and is full of excellent bits of information and wise opinion, oh master.
Malcolm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/02/livingstone.johnson
“The poll - the only one carried out by a national newspaper using established techniques - suggests Johnson could pull off a sensational victory on May 1 ” - rather dismissive of YouGov
50 …and to my other hero Peter the Punter who ditto, ditto, ditto…
Malcolm
46.I think that taking away the 10p tax bracket at this time will be seen by many who are already struggling as the government kicking the ladder from under them at the most difficult time financially. No wonder concerned Labour backbenchers raised it at the PLP meeting with Brown. This is going to hurt the most vulnerable.
45 Casino
Odds of 2/1 = 33% For odds on, just invert - 67%. (Allow me a point for rounding, please!)
I get there by adding one to the odds and then dividing the result into 100. There are probably easier ways, but old habits….
52. Official confirmation.
Punters need to lay off NOW. The markets will start overreacting as soon as pb.com posts a new story on this poll.
54 As someone who buys into the “what happens in Us happens here 12-18 months later” theory then the damage could be very serious for Labour.
53 I do hope you are taking the pi*s, me old fruit!
According to BBC Johnson is 1% ahead of Red Ken on the basis of the ICM poll.
55. Sorry Peter, I was going by the Betfair graph. Anyway, we both weren’t far off!
All money to lay Boris at 1.5 now GONE. Big gap now on the lay side.
Not much money to pick up.
24 - all left handed. Though Reagan was made to write right handed.
24. Dunno - they are probably all related somehow. Irish blood? Could play the piano?
Give in…
re 60 sorry about that - I took all there was at 1.5
56/60. Too late. All gone.
52.Ted, daft as it may seem, I think that this type of neck and neck poll will help Boris rather than Ken. I think that it will motivate the anti Ken voters to get out there and make their vote count.
Clinton with a 9 point in another poll
http://tinyurl.com/2xbv9a
63. No worries. Me too
I’m getting an inordinate amount of pleasure out of this - don’t know why. I’ve only had one beer this evening!
54
Sub prime borrowers most prevalent in Labour constituencies.
Labour consituents tend to be poorer paid.. so more affected by 10p tax rate.
When cheap mortgae deals expire (see sub prime), new interest rates are typically 2% higher than old ones.
I think Gordon is doing a great job to squeeze the poor and give to the rich. I thought the Conservatives were accused of that.
The man is going to do his core voters a great deal of harm and cause many of them to suffer much anguish and financial misery.
63. Mike, some advice please..
When (and at what price) would you advise going “back in”??
36
Boris Johnson - Independent Monkey for London!
Verrrry Interesting.
Malcolm
50 PtP. Indeed. It political death by a thousand cuts …. but death it is !!
51 malc119ken. An excellent, accurate and completely impartial post.
60 Quoting the Betfair price is always a bit iffy, Casino, especially when there is poor liquidity an a gap between bet and lay prices.
Fwiw, my guess is Boris will be about 1.70 by noon tomorrow.
Intrade has a mayoral market up which is a bit sleepy.
Go sell Boris at 66.4?
56 Guardian making quite a point of following up Ken’s complaints about respondent profiles
“using traditional telephone interviews. It reflects the views of a sample of 1,002 London voters who reflect the capital’s demographic profile, including 29% non-white voters.”
Can I ask a technical question? Why would it be preferable to lay Johnson rather than back Ken in these circumstances?
I was looking at being £45 up if Boris won, and £30 down if he lost. I’ve just backed Ken so that I will be £30 up if Boris wins, and won’t lose anything if Ken wins. Would it have been better to lay Boris rather than back Ken? Sorry, I’m just trying to get my head round the maths!
Thanks.
66 Yeah, that’s probably a bit more like it, Marcia. It’s still well down on what she needs though.
74.When was the field work carried out, surely it was not done in the middle of the school holiday period?
75. Henry C.
Don’t think you’re wrong. I’m backing Ken at anything above 2/1.
77 - school holidays have not started yet. They did not coincide with Easter this year.
Well I wasn’t too far off in my hypothettical mayoral poll on last thread. Just a lucky accident!
The real article still leaves the BNP as possible kingmakers.
66. I wrote off Hilary about 6 months ago on here. Nothing has changed my mind since.
75
Because Paddick might win.
Here’s a handy tool for odds calcs.
http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/odds_calculator.html
53 malc19ken. A man may have more than one hero but only one master !!
SPIN have moved their prices,
19.5/20.5
13.5/14.5
75 I sympathise, Henry, as one who often finds finds that particular equation troublesome. It would be hard to comment on your example without getting boringly technical, but as a general rule I would say it is better to back rather than lay, because with the latter you are implicitly backing all the no-hopers too.
One drawback with backing is that it can be harder on the cash flow, so sometimes I lay instead just to free up funds. This works best in small fields.
79. Sorry SBS not wquite right there speaking from personal experience almost all the private schools have already gone on holiday as have some London states..definitley a “Holiday poll”
84. Interesting. Only down by 0.5%.
I’d like another 1% drop please SPIN!!
Govenor Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming and super delegate endorses Obama :
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jvzT8keHzVS3YjP8BJDDrf64A_AwD8VPQV801
Very interesting. As I’ve said repeatedly, Ken Livingstone is one of the greatest campaigners in modern British political history. It very much looks as thought its all to play for.
86 - fair enough!
67 It is immensly satisfying, isn’t it Casino? I mean, the pleasure of buying in at the lowest price and then watching it float slowly up is often out of all proportion to the sums involved.
The drift has started, and even SI has eased half a point since this thread opened.
re 84. Yes - I closed my BJ position on SPIN at 20. Nice to take the profit.
74 I didn’t see any mention of past vote weighting etc and likelihood to vote (though could be covered by ‘traditional methods’?).
It’s all to play for - the Guardian is getting quite desperate in it’s desire to see an apologist for oppressive dictatorships around the world re-elected.
Ken seems to be losing the LD second preferences (though Bozza won’t need them) and without them I can’t see how he can win.
Ted’s quote above and this
“There is a clear split between non-white voters, 64% of whom say Livingstone has been a good mayor, and white voters at 46%. That suggests the key to a third Labour victory lies in getting the vote out in London’s diverse inner-city constituencies, while Tory support is highest in outer London.”
Makes me think Boris has it sewn up. Was the poll weighted for likelihood to vote? That they do not mention. Surely turnout will be much higher in the suburbs and amongst core Tory voters than in the inner city with core Labour voters - every national poll says so, does it not?
93 gmta
79.Thanks, we are already into the 2nd week of ours up North.
When Anthony Wells has unpicked this poll, its composition and weighting or lack of it, the innards will suggest a solid Boris victory. Mark my words.
78, 82, 85 - Thank you for your help!
Could this turn into a battle of the pollsters, ICM vs Yougov, just as much as a battle between the candidates? The Guardian article is quite catty towards Yougov in places, it could get nasty! If the differences continue, then the results should tell us a lot about the reliability of different polling firms, with an eye on the next general election.
91/92. SPIN have done their usual stroppy strop strop and suspended both Mayoral and UK general election markets.
Betfair (read Mike Smithson
) so far unconvinced by this poll.
89: Indeed he is. I’ll just add a “t” to my New Labour posters.
Anyone wishing to close out a bet try this tool
Hedging Calculator on http://www.oddschecker.com/ will do the maths for you.
Includes betfair commision rates.
100 Newt Labour! If Ken had half a brain he’d use that slogan.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/02/livingstone.johnson
its 2 points between them
This is the first time ever in UK polling history that a telephone pollster has found Ken to be behind in a Mayoral poll.
The phone pollsters have a terrible record of overestimating Ken because it is so hard for them to get the turnout right.
Although I’ve been closing my BJ positions like crazy - £1612 laid on Betfair alone this afternoon - I still think he has a 70% chance of victory.
I will return when the prices are right
I was racking my brains over that joke. Didn’t get it at all. I thought maybe T as in G and T = GIN and tonic. But that didn’t make much sense.
Newt Labour it is.
103. Any chance of a new(t) thread?
Anthony had his attack/defence in early this afternoon on the ICM v YouGov poll:
Off-topic, there will be an ICM poll in tomorrow’s Guardian on the London mayoral election. This is the first ICM poll on the election, the first media poll except for those from YouGov (the only other poll was the Labour party’s own internal polling from MORI) and the first non-YouGov poll since Boris Johnson opened up a significant lead over Ken Livingstone. At the last election Populus’s (who use much the same methodology as ICM) final polls were much kinder to Ken Livingstone than YouGov’s, so we should expect ICM to show a lower Johnson lead.
106 - the London Mayor poll is at 102
New thread
79 - School holidays started a while ago in private schools so you need to factor that one in, I should know (and that’s why I’ve not posted much for a few days, I’m visiting the parents)!