Peter the Punter’s take on…
April 4th, 2008-
The Grand National 2008
One popular misconception about this race is that it’s a lottery which serious punters would swerve. In fact, until about ten years ago it was one of the easiest races in which to find value bets and was therefore eagerly anticipated by the greedy hordes of professional backers. This all changed when Senior Handicapper, Phil Smith (no relation), started taking a radical view of the weights allocated to each horse. In essence, he started to show greater leniency towards horses at the top end of the rating scale, the better horses in fact. His efforts, which have been widely applauded in racing circles, have led to a significant increase in the quality of the fields. Unfortunately, this also made it a damn sight harder to find the winner, since the handicap was compressed, and the range of abilities amongst those lining up was much reduced.
In the ‘good old days’, a cursory glance through the 40 runners was enough to enable any moderately competent form student to eliminate about half the field as no-hopers. Another hour or so of study and you could rule out another ten, so you were left in effect with a ten runner handicap and some very juicy looking prices. However, since Earth Summit won in 1998 (the last National winner I backed), the race has set a pretty formidable puzzle to even the shrewdest of form students. This year though, things seem to have reverted a little to pre-Smith days and the formulaic approach which I and many others used to adopt regularly may be back in business again.
Last Tuesday, I spent the evening at the London Racing Club where the race was dissected by the formidable panel of David Duggan (Irish racing journalist and form expert), race commentator Mark Johnston and Ladbrokes’ David Williams. (The Club couldn’t afford Shadsy.) There was unanimity amongst the panel that Cloudy Lane was by far the likeliest winner, and much of the audience agreed. Politicalbetting.com does not exist however to retail such superficial opinions and I was able to obtain, from one of my most trusted moles, buried deep in of one of the country’s most prestigious bookmaking establishments, the view that the mightiest form experts in the land are firmly of the opinion that Cloudy Lane does not stay the necessary 4½ miles. Indeed, such are their doubts about its ability to get the trip that they suspect it may not even finish.
Now, if you believe the collective wit and wisdom of the LRC Panel, you need read no further and you can go off and place your bet, although I should add that David Williams helpfully suggested that to get the best price, probably about 11/2, you should hold fire until near the off. On the other hand if, like me, you trust The Mole, you might like to read the following further suggestions, starting in the time honored tradition of eliminating the no-hopers first and progressing through to the principal suspects.
No Hopers
It is very rare for top weights to win this event and you can usually confidently strike a line through any horse carrying more than 11st 5lbs, but I make an exception this year for both Hedgehunter and Simon, who may just have the requisite class to defy their burdens. We can however dismiss Hi Cloy, Knowhere, Mr Pointment and Madison du Berlais, purely on weight grounds.
Others who can safely be dismissed, either because they cannot run, or jump, or in some cases do either, are: Iron Man, Fundamentalist, L’Ami, Snowy Morning, Contraband, McKelvey, Joacci, Point Barrow, No Full, Bob Hall, Cornish Sett, Naunton Brook, Tumbling Dice, Backbeat, Idle Talk, Kelami, Milan Deux Mille, Nadover and Black Apalachi.
Possible But Not Probable
Vodka Bleu, D’Argent, Bailey Breeze, King John’s Castle, Turko, Dun Doire, Philson Run, Ardaghey and, if it gets in, Joe’s Edge.
Definite Maybes
Bewleys Berry, Mon Mome, Hedgehunter, Simon and Butler’s Cabin.
Prime Suspects
Slim Pickings, Comply Or Die, Chelsea Harbour.
The PtP money was already down on Comply Or Die at 16/1 some weeks ago and I see no reason to lay it off now it is at tens, especially since the horse will have the assistance of Timmy Murphy, in my book the best jumps race rider around at the moment. I’d still recommend a punt at the current price, each way of course, especially as many firms will pay out on the place for the first five home, which I expect these to be:
1. Comply Or Die
2. Slim Pickings
3. Chelsea Harbour
4. Hedgehunter
5. Simon
Good luck, and may they all come home safely.
Peter Smith
(Peter the Punter)
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yay - now we can all click on mike’s link to help keep PBC going - thanks.
TURKO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very interesting Peter. What did you make of David Duggan btw?Seems to pick up some good winners on ATR.
“each way of course”
Would you reccomend all bets on the GN to be e/w?
Can anyone please provide the following information:
When did MPs first start getting paid? Was this by act of parliamentor how was it done?
When did expenses appear on the scene and again what actually happened?
I would be most interested in the historical background to the present debate
Thank you PtP. Which of the “possibles but not probables”, in your opinion, looks like having the most staying power? They might be worth a small punt.
Just to let you all know that PtP is getting an early night ahead of the big race - but will return tomorrow to answer questions on the thread.
5. The question now isn’t one of expenses it’s of making a profit out of your expenses. If claiming £20,000 to pay your mortgage isn’t making a profit out of your expenses then I don’t know what is. As JJ might have said ‘Pass the sick bag Alice……’
5 - early twentieth century, as the working classes began to get represented in parliament.
I know nothing about racing but have followed one sure-fire betting strategy that three times out of four produces a profit - SELL the number of finishers on the spread markets.
As well as falling at fences many riders pull-up near the end if they see that they aren’t going to get placed. They do this simply to avoid undue further risk to their horse.
2 It’s a good horse, Ave It, but it’s 68 years since a 6 or 7yo won the National.
Maybe next year.
Or maybe he isn’t…..!!
Grr. I picked Hi Cloy in the office sweepstake. That’s that for another year then!
3 Woody
Lot of time for David Duggan. He doesn’t mince his words either! At a place like the LRC, he can shoot from the hip and is all the better for it, but he’s an intelligent observer and I would always respect his opinion.
4 Yes, Steven, the ew odds are generally pretty favorable in the national.
6 Tangent
Dun Doire definitely has staying power, he’s just a bit slow.
8 - Don’t like to be a pedant, but it’s only “making a profit” if the house rises in value.
12 Too much fun here, DC!!!
What are the odds on Elizabeth Taylor winning this time?
I would guess the argument is that he already owned a house in London and needed one in his constituency. Whereas the usual is that MPs have a house in their constituency and need one in London.
10 - I would suspect the opposite.
11 I’ll take the EW!
Con gain AINTREE
10 Mike
I’ve milked that particular cow regularly for years but I’m not sue it will work this year. The weights are very compressed and the going has worked out a lot quicker than most people were expecting.
Whilst I wouldn’t expect a huge number of finishers, I don’t think it will be a handful either. I’ve backed the middle option on Betfair - 10 to 16.
Peter - if you put a £10 each way bet on your 5 selected horses how many of them would have to finish in the top five to make a profit?
19 You can back her with me, SSI. Name your own odds.
5 - Payment for MPs was a major plank of Labour’s platform in its earliest reasons, which is one of the reasons why the liberals introduced it (another reason was that the 1906 Parliament marked the move of Parliament from an assembly dominated by the landed upper classes to one where the professional classes were predominant.
16 - I’m tempted to give Dun Doire a place bet.
OK, serious question - what is the going expected to be tomorrow - I’d hazard a guess at soft?
Thanks
My selection is D’Argent.
5. From Whitaker’s Almanack (2005 Edition):
Members of the House of Commons have received salary payments since 1911, when it was £400pa - a level it did not go above until the mid-30s. Alex is right about the reason - it was to allow men of working-class backgrounds to be able to afford to stand for parliament without having to rely on sponsors.
Facilities for free travel were introduced in 1924.
The allowance for secretarial and research was introduced in 1969.
The additional cost allowance - for staying away from their main place of residence - came in in 1972.
24 Depends, Vino, which ones and which odds you got but if ANY of the five wins, you are in profit, since the shortest price would be 10/1 - Comply Or Die. Otherwise, you’d about break even if two are placed.
24 - it depends on the horses and if one of them wins - 2 or 3 is the break even point with none wininng (I believe)…
30 - good, I did calculate it about right - I got a bit trigger happy on betfair and then did the maths afterwards - it’s only a bit of fun after all…
27 NO!!!
Timmy Murphy was on BBC2 earlier saying it’s good to soft, good in places. If the sun and the wind keeps up, could even be mainly good - hence my caution to Mike about the number of finishers.
28 It’s not YOUR bloody selection at all, Shadsy. Fess up. It’s Eddy The Shoe’s!
34 …And a tenner says it doesn’t complete!
Well I was going to say good to soft….
Thanks!!
34. I selected the tipster. Therefore it is my selection.
30 - Peter the Punter - thanks - is it then possible to do a round robin type of bet with all five selections?
27. It’s been raining moderately for about 3 hours tonight. Just eased-off in the past hour or so. Should brighten up in the morning, but more rain possible from 1pm tomorrow…
37 D’Argent can sure run fast enough, but it’s a very unsafe conveyance. Hope Chocolate has his pyjamas with him. He might be stopping in The Royal Liverpool Infirmary tomorrow nite.
39 Thanks Rod. Tht means the ground won’t change much, and Murphy’s assessment of Good to Soft, Good in places is about right. Suggests about 15 finishers.
Evening all
I’ve backed SLIM PICKINGS at 16s and am quite happy with that. I’ve also backed MADISON DU BERLAIS at 66s e/w. I take the point about weight into account but the ground is faster this year and the handicap more compressed so the weight argument may not be as strong as it was when the handicap covered 28lbs.
CLOUDY LANE might win the length of the straight but he’s a silly price. The stats say it should be at least 8s the field so getting involved at 5s or 6s just doesn’t make sense to me. COMPLY OR DIE has ticks in a lot of the boxes for me but the Eider Chase form just hasn’t worked out at all.
As for the others in Peter’s top five, CHELSEA HARBOUR is held by SLIM PICKINGS on a strict interpretation of the Leopardstown form but as both were having their National prep races, you probably can’t read too much into that.
HEDGEHUNTER was well held last year and though this year’s renewal isn’t as strong, I can’t believe he will be good enough while SIMON is a possible e/w as he will be staying on at the end but there are others who could fill that role at bigger prices.
Anyway, good luck to all participants especially after the Topham today. The last thing the National needs or wants is a fatality of any kind.
30 No sure exactly what you have in mind, Vino, but the Tote (and others) will be offering all manner of combination bets. You could put four of those selections in a trifecta and it may not be a bad bet.
It’s the sort of thing Dave Nevison does, but not really my style.
(But then he wins a bit more than me!)
42 Thanks Stodge. Pretty much agree with all that, especially the last bit. It’s disgraceful that McKelvey is running again, and Contraband should have been retired years ago. It must be frustrating for the owners of Joe’s Edge, who would have a bit of a chance, to be kept out by dangerous no-hopers like those two.
By the way, I think the biggest caveat concerning Comply Or Die is not the Eider Chase Form, but the fact the horse is a front-runner. I fear a dispute between horse and jockey as to the appropriate tactics, but then I did get 16/1 so I can’t expect too much.
Further to my earlier thoughts, only a dozen or so completed in the Topham and it may be that faster ground equals a faster pace and as we all know, it’s speed that causes the most problems especially over the first six fences.
Most interesting is the fourth fence (or what will be the fourth tomorrow) which caused carnage both today and in yesterday’s Foxhunters as did Becher’s. I would reckon on around 12-14 finishers tomorrow.
43 - Peter the Punter - my favorite bet is the “round robin” i.e picking three horses from 3 different races and having 10 bets on them [three singles,six doubles and a treble].Is it possible to do a similar bet on 3 or more horses from the same race? or am I talking rubbish?I’m trying to see if there is any value on this type of bet or just sticking to e/way bets on single horses.
45 Yes, that’s my thinking on the number of finishers, Stodge. If the ground is quick, they go too fast and the number of fallers increases. Otoh, bog-like conditions has the obvious effect of exhausting the horses.
12-14 finishers would be middling to high, which is what I expect on good to soft going.
Re: 44 - Thanks Peter. I really think the first six fences will thin them out tomorrow. Becher’s is still a tricky fence as today showed but the fourth has been getting progressively harder over the past few years - I think this is because the third got a bad reputation after the early 1970s and jockeys relax a fraction after getting over it.
Re: COMPLY OR DIE - I think you are where I am with SLIM PICKINGS in terms of beating the price.
46 Don’t see how it would work in the same race, Vino, but I would deinitely include the GN in my round robin across three different races, because the place odds are good.
Agreed, Stodge.
Anyway, off to Uncle now. Big day tomorrow.
Nite all.
34 Is Eddy the Shoe any relation to Jack “the Hat” McVitie by any chance?
45 Yes, that’s my thinking on the number of finishers, Stodge. If the ground is quick, they go too fast and the number of fallers increases
Is that really true? Good ground usually increases the number of deaths, but not fallers?
My money’s on Chelsea Harbour. Be warned!
53 Backing or buying it, Roger?
Nite.
Casino Royale - will you be backing Tumbling Dice? You know you should.
Re: 52 - I disagree that good ground increases the number of deaths which can be down to any number of factors. For example, a horse can have a heart attack whether the ground is soft, heavy or firm.
As for fallers, the key is the speed of the race. In the quagmire conditions of 2001, only two finished without falling but to my knowledge there were no fatalities. Yes, some fell but many got tired and the jockeys pulled the horses up.
When the ground is quicker, horses tend to go faster and with the obstacles as formidable as they are, that leads to a greater chance of mishap. The other factor is fatigue - when horses get tired, they fall. The sensible jockey will recognise the horse is tired and, if they have no chance, will pull up.
may they all come home safely
….. and so say all of us.
25 - How about we trade bets: you take my bet on a comback for National Velvet, and in return I’ll take your wager against Brian Cowen over in dear, dirty Dublin? Seem equally likely as sporting propositions!
Great piece PtP. Thanks.
I agree that The National can work well for punters who look at the stats. AFTER last year’s race I looked on Betfair’s Forum blog and a poster called Ilnamar had used the stats to narrow the race down to 4. These included the first 3 home! I like the stats method and the only general stat that worked against last year’s winner was it’s price, being an outsider; arguably a false negative statistic. Those that backed the winner had no objection to him being 33/1.
I think the 4 strongest statistics are
1. Age of horse; needs to be 8-11 inclusive and 11 is probably too old.
2. Weight. More than 11 stone 1lb and it’s a big ask. This stat is under question as the handicap becomes compressed and the quality improves but over 4.5 miles every pound counts, particularly with the ground currently on the soft side of good.
3. Proven winning form in a Chase over 3 miles+ and preferably at Class 1 level.
4. Between 4 and 6 runs so far this season.
So an 8-10 year old, carrying no more than 11 stone 1lb who is a proven stayer with 4-6 runs so far this season is the right profile.
My two so far against the field are Dun Doire and D’Argent. The former, if back to his best and able to cope with Aintree’s fences would be a good thing in my view. Two big IFs there. He is trained by the wiliest trainer currently to hold a licence. The latter stays all day and is trainned by arguably the most talented current trainer.
I will probably back at least 2 more. With 40 runners and most no hopers it is not illogical to back 3-6 horses.
Good luck everyone!
It seems that rats do sometimes join sinking ships:
http://www.batleynews.co.uk/news/Former-Lib-Dem-David-makes.3941005.jp
Would have thought FUNDAMENTALIST a fine choice for the average pber, at least the debate team.
59 stjohn - so what’s Ilnamar going for this year pray?
59 “Those that backed the winner had no objection to him being 33/1.”
Truer words were never spoken!
St J says ground is “soft side of good”. And what’s the weather report?
Peter. I looked on Betfair’s blog yesterday and he hasn’t done a repeat analysis, unfortunately. Last year’s analysis is still there and easily found. Others have done an analysis on this year’s race and the consensus appears to be to use the main statistics that I have cited above, although some debate about the weight statistic.
This is the big one for me because if it applies, as Peter has highlighted, it rules out so many fancied runners. If it does not apply then it shows how much the race has changed. It applied last year.
Interesting that Shadsy also rates D’Argent, one of my current two against the field. PtP attributes Shadsy’s tip to Eddie the Shoo? I don’t know who he is.
PfP, as you and some other readers will know, tomorrow is a huge betting event for me, which kicks off at 12.15 pm.
Come on The Baggies!
56 - maybe so. I would have thought by far the greatest number of deaths are caused by broken legs, which are more likely on good ground. Yes there are other factors at Aintree due to the extraordinary length, but these days riders are more likely to pull up if they’re struggling.
I’m confusing good ground with firm ground though…
O/T I completely missed this but Boris Johnson admitted he snorted cocaine as a youngster.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/04/boris.london08
I don’t think it’ll be a big issue, but it’s interesting that he chose to reveal it at this moment in time.
Here’s the non-better’s rules
1.I’ve heard of him - therefore he must have won something and I’ve heard his name on the radio
2.He’s not top weight - even I get the point of that, although I have won on top weight twice in the 70’s
4. His odds are just behind the favourite
3. He’s got a nice name - Grand National winners should be called Hedgehunter - I won on that very long named horse a couple of years ago
I shall apply these rules tomorrow
Pegasus of the News of the World has it thus:
1 Chelsea Harbour
2 Slim Pickings
3 Comply or Die
Exactly the same first three as PtP, albeit in a different order - unbelievable! Now answer me one question - have you ever seen Pegasus and PtP in the same room together?
Nope, I thought not!
All this track talk puts me in mind of a song . . .
CAMPTOWN RACES
Stephen Foster
De Camptown ladies sing dis song, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
De Camptown race-track five miles long, Oh, doo-dah day!
I come down dah wid my hat caved in, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
I go back home wid a pocket full of tin, Oh, doo-dah day!
Gwine to run all night!
Gwine to run all day!
I’ll bet my money on de bob-tail nag,
Somebody bet on de bay.
De long tail filly and de big black hoss, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
Dey fly de track and dey both cut across, Oh, doo-dah-day!
De blind hoss sticken in a big mud hole, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
Can’t touch bottom wid a ten foot pole, Oh, doo-dah-day!
{chorus}
Old muley cow come on to de track, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
De bob-tail fling her ober his back, Oh, doo-dah-day!
Den fly along like a rail-road car, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
Runnin’ a race wid a shootin’ star, Oh, doo-dah-day!
{chorus}
See dem flyin’ on a ten mile heat, Doo-dah doo-dah!
Round de race track, den repeat, Oh, doo-dah-day!
I win my money on de bob-tail nag, Doo-dah! doo-dah!
I keep my money in an old tow-bag, Oh, doo-dah-day!
{chorus}
65 stjohn - yes, it’s a truly, truly mega day for you tomorrow - I wish you all the very best - will you be at the semi in person?
Win or lose, I hope Mike will do a thread on this in due course. It’s even more amazing than, say, backing the future POTUS at 50-1.
My National bets will follow shortly.
68 - Agree, smart move & smart timing.
Speaking of horses, can Paddock supply a little rock n’ roll to the mayor’s race? Since the others already have sex & drugs pretty well covered.
69. John Wheatley. Good luck with that methodology! Points 2 and 4 certainly steer you in the right direction, even though your sequencing of points is unusual.
70. Peter. I didn’t know Pegasus was still going. I remember him as a mythological betting tipster of my distant youth. But to suggest he and PtP are the same creature well… Pigs might fly! As to horses? I will be happy to see one of mine fly up the run in.
72. Peter. No. I will be watching on the telly with a select few suitably commiserate associates. Should they win, which I fearly doubt, then I would be frantically seeking a couple of Cup Final tickets.
74 I think it’s rather like Robin Goodfellow in the Mail - these names just go on forever, but I was impressed to learn that you read the NOTW in your callow youth!
OK, here are my tips - we all love outsiders don’t we, well I reckon it will be an outsiders year and boy, do I mean an outsider. I go for Philson Run at 43-1 and Madison du Berlais at, would you believe, 99-1? Both E.W. of course, it might be better to save half your stake money and just bet for a place on Betfair.
Also I would sell the number of GN finishers at 15 and I take Aston Villa at home to defeat Bolton at odds of around 0.72/1.
Good luck everyone.
As regards “flying pigs” - well you tell me the odds of two people picking the same first three home in the National - you’re good at working out odds and they must be astronomical!
64. SSI. The last I read is for some showers tomorrow but not expected to appreciably affect the going. However there was some talk of snow on Thursday’s weekend forecast and the showers tomorrow could be sleety so I think it’s a bit uncertain. If the weather proves to be wetter than expected then the lighter weighted horses will be at a great advantage.
74 ….. and of course booking a nice plush venue for the inaugural Midlands party of PB.com
76. Pfp.
PtP is Pegasus and you win your £5! Otherwise just back the Tricast.
Best of luck to St John, Peter and all other PB punters at Aintree tomorrow. Also to Liz and all the other hopefuls on the track tomorrow, wet or sober!
78. I have already reserved the larger plush purple banquette in our local pub for this very purpose.
79 I’m not making this up about PtP and Pegasus you know - here’s the proof:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7325484.stm
79 What’s even more strange, what I’ve just noticed is that Jim McGrath and Rishi Persad agree with my two picks. I mean just how spooky is that?
81 stjohn - this is excellent news, you’re generosity clearly knows no bounds. Let me know when and where and I’ll share two pints of lager and a packet of crisps with you.
80 Thanks SSI - I just wish, more than anything else tomorrow, that all the horses return safely - frankly I just can’t bear to watch the race live on TV for fear of serious injury or worse.
OT - PENNSYLVANIA
Here is a (mercifully) brief summary of the numbers I crunched last thred, plus some more shade tree calculations:
Areas leaning to Obama = 44% of Dems
Philadelphia city & suburbs, Southcentral PA and Lehigh Valley
Areas leaning to Clinton = 37% of Dems
Outer Soutwest PA, Wyoming Valley, Erie, Johnstown, plus all the smaller counties combined
Areas that are a tossup = 19% of Dems
Pittsburgh city & suburbs (Alleghany Co) plus Lehigh Valley
Question is, how well will each candidate actually do in these grand divisions?
Here’s my current guesstimate of Obama’s projected vote in each area:
Obama zone = 55% for Obama
Clinton zone = 40% for Obama
Up for Grabs = 45% for Obama
Which shakes out statewide to: Obama 47%, Clinton 53%
86 - correction, Lehigh Valley with Up for Grabs area, NOT with Obamaland.
SSI - Is there as yet any sense amongst Democrats that Hillary is in danger of seriously damaging the cause by remaining in the race. Were this to be so, even to a modest extent, say 2%, this could presumably have quite an effect on the outcome in Pennsylvania.
I wonder what the result of the Grand National would be if it was run by STV instead of First-Past-The-Post?
89 Believe that is the way that the politicos & hacks feel, including most candidates for Congress and other offices.
Question is, are local opinion leaders and activists starting to get concerned? My guess is that the answer is yes.
89 - Great idea! You must put that in your next ORMLP manifesto.
Goodnight everyone.
SSI - If you’re right and its 47-53 then how will that pan out changing the delegates and PV totals? Is that sufficient for Clinton to stay in the race or is it all over then?
93 My arithmetic’s not great at 2.20am, but I think it would result in her closing the gap by around 10 delegates - big deal!
94 If you’re familiar with Rod Crosby’s excellent running spreadsheet of the delegate count, actual and projected for each state, you’ll appreciate how insignificant such a result would be for her.
She’s just plain had it!
95 Rod, if you read this, perhaps you should offer your spreadsheet to one or other of the major US TV companies and thereby helping to bring to an earlier than otherwise conclusion what has been a a fascinating contest, but one which to all intents and purposes is now over.
95 I don’t think anyone in the US media, or the Clinton campaign expect Hillary to win the most delegates. The issue (and its a long shot) is that Hillary might keep the delegate count close, be close or even win the popular vote, and be the form horse so to speak if she wins Penn then Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico etc etc. If something else blows up for Obama she could win these states confortably, although still coming up short on the delegate count The convention would then be left with a situation where Obama limped over the line and is arguably damaged goods, but have to go with him in November because a load of voters in February got caught up in something.
This is why the DNC put in superdelegates - to provide a get out in case the primary winner turned out to be a sub optimal pick for November.
95 Or to look at it another way, if the polls in key battleground states show Obama underperforming Clinton to a sigificant degree vs McCain, and well behind in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and then the Democratic leadership would all do an about turn and find a way to rationalise getting Obama off the top of the ticket.
89. Very clever question. It would depend on who the voters were. I suppose the only sensible answer would be the punters.
So under STV, we might say if a 500-1 shot crossed the line it would be dis-allowed (Condorcet Loser), but beyond that there is not much scope for the application of STV to horse-racing!
96. PfP, thanks for the plaudits, but there are many US commentators who reached the same conclusion as mine independently. To be fair to Clinton (my one and only time - promise!) it still has been an incredibly close race by historical standards, and I guess if I was in her shoes I’d still be in there, hoping for a miracle…. I can’t fault her tenacity.
Obama will win the pledged delegates overall by about 4% - close by anyone’s standards. But once that lead builds-up under a PR system, it tends to solidify, and there’s no FPTP wild-card available to overturn it..
Vino at 38 - I would recommend a tricast/forecast combination. Pick 3 horses and invest (lose) £6 - 50p on 12 bets: 6 tricasts (finish in any order and 6 forecasts any two of your horses finishing first or second). At Joe Corals they give a choice of bonuses on a special slip.
Is it not a bit risky to dismiss a horse that came second last year?
My final 4
1. Dun Doire
2. D’Argent
3. Comply or Die
4. Cloudy Lane
101 Alex - I just pray that horse gets home safe. If it does not, it will be a disater not just for the horse but for National Hunt racing.
It should not have been entered, or allowed to compete.
Have I missed something regarding McKelvey? Baffled by some of the remarks here. Was thinking of backing him as my second choice.
Many thanks for your post. I put a small wager on 4 of the 5 you tipped and sure enough Comply Or Die comes in
Congratulations. I backed Comply Or Die on your suggestion.
We would all be very grateful if PB could do this for all the big races and much more fun than what is happening amongst the various ex-colonies.
Thanks Peter!
Spot on Ptp and thanks for Comply or Die.
Makes me humble after “doing my money” on Arsenal to win the premiership.
I should listen to your tips more often.
murphy gave the horse one of the best rides in a national that i have seen in over 40 years. what say Ptp?
109 He’s a superb horseman, Graham.