Will Indiana Prove To Be Decisive?
April 5th, 2008
Morus looks ahead to the Hoosier state as the Democrat endgame approaches
Whilst all eyes are on Pennsylvania on the 22nd April, there are a number of primaries being held within a couple of weeks of that contest which could still yet have an impact on Clinton’s pending decision to fight or concede. Although Obama has recently drawn very close in the PA polls, it would be a massive surprise for Clinton to lose this primary, although the odds suggest that he is likely to come within 10% of her vote share. This is now less about the number of pledged delegates won in each state, and rather about the strength in these latter contests affecting the decision of seemingly the only 351 people in American not to have already made up their mind: the currently uncommitted Superdelegates.
After Pennsylvania, most states look reasonably safe for one candidate or another: few people can imagine Obama making much ground in West Virginia or Kentucky (Appalachia as a cross-state region has been solidly impregnable to his charm), whereas Clinton would have to seriously exceed expectations to win in North Carolina, and Oregon appears to be leaning well away from her as well (Obama would beat McCain there, but Clinton would lose to McCain if she won the nomination, according to Rassmussen).
Between now and the 3rd of June (when South Dakota and Montana go to the polls) there is only one post-Pennsylvania contest that looks like being remotely competitive: the Indiana primary which takes place on 6th May. Only a couple of polls have been posted on Real Clear Politics, with Clinton said to be leading by 9 and 3 points on April 2nd and 4th respectively. The commonality of these polls suggest that whilst Indianapolis and suburbs lean heavily towards Obama, the rest of the state favours Clinton, even those parts that border Illinois. The only other notable aspect of the polls is that whereas in previous contests, Obama has won close to 90% of the African-American vote, Clinton is said to be attracting between 16% and 21% of that demographic in Indiana. Although Survey USA suggested that 2% of Clinton’s 9 point lead in their survey was due to Republican voters, claims that this is part of a deliberate strategy by the GOP remain unsupported.
Institutionally, Clinton enjoys the vocal support of 5 of Indiana’s 12 Superdelegates (versus Obama’s 2), most notably Senator (and former two-term Governor) Evan Bayh - one of the few nationally-prominent Democrats from the state. Former Governor Joe Kernan has also endorsed her, but none of the current Indiana Democratic Congressmen have made an endorsement.
Other political activity in the state surrounds GOP Governor Mitch Daniels attempt at re-election in November, where there is a strong chance that his 53% share of the vote may not survive to give him a second term, especially given his close ties to President GW Bush. Democrats are energised in trying to retake the Governor’s mansion, with Jill Long Thompson (former Congresswoman, and a Dept of Agriculture Under-Secretary in the Clinton Administration) leading in the Democratic primary thanks to union endorsements and support from Emily’s List. If nominated, she would stand a good chance of being Indiana’s 50th Governor, and the first woman to hold that post. Might this type of candidate mean that the active Democratic grassroots currently working in the state are those more likely to be inclined towards Clinton?
The impact on the momentum of the race is key here - how would the different scenarios in Indiana affect the perceived momentum, and therefore impact the uncommitted Superdelegates (including 5 Indiana Democratic Congressmen)? A strong Clinton win might counteract Obama’s expected victory in North Carolina the same day. A narrow Clinton win might give her just enough hope to hold on for West Virginia a week later. A loss might make her look bad holding on, and could lead to a small leakage of Superdelegates (including the Hoosier Congressional Dems) to Obama, but would probably not finish her off. A heavy loss to Obama, coming on the same day as North Carolina, could be the blow that unleashes a Superdelegate flood that brings this spectacle to a close.
It may be that Indiana has very little impact on the race, if Clinton is already fixed on a Convention-based victory, and the Superdelegates are not prepared to announce in a timely fashion, then it could be little more than a side show. However, a strong win or loss (with the momentum that would be claimed) could be the catalyst for some of the 351 to join the rest of America, and make up their minds.
Links to recent polls:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=35417ff6-4985-47ce-8e1b-3fbe566d108d
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/In408rel.html
Morus is a regular contributor to pb.com and is one of the leading American experts on the site.
Guest Editor’s Note
Just to let you all know that Mike should be back running the site from tomorrow morning, so “thanks for having me” during a busy week at home and abroad. The Italy article should be out around tea-time tomorrow, and I hope to be writing a regular Sunday evening column (probably monthly to start with) concentrating on politics in the “rest of the world” - ie outside the US and UK.
Cheers & all the best
Double Carpet
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Good piece Morus
If Hillary wins Pennsylvania as expected, I think she will win Indiana as well and stay in the race.
Obama is surely there until the convention regardless of the results in the remaining primaries, absent a live boy dead girl situation
re 1. But what is she going to do for money Paul? To sustain the nomination campaign she needs cash, most of her donors are maxed out and there is a growing debt problem. A large part of what the Clinton campaign is currently raising is for the general election - not the primaries - because her donors have already given the maximum $2300 for that.
In 1992 in that famous phrase it was “it’s the economy stupid”.
In 2008 it’s going to be “it’s fundraising stupid”.
Neither McCain, who will be accepting public funding, or Hillary can get anywhere near to matching the Obama fundraising machine which now has more than a million non-maxed out donors on its books.
2 Mike
Good point, although none of the remaining primaries are in Top 20 media markets, so the TV ad costs will be manageable. Also judging by the tax returns, the Clintons are more than capable of funding the campaign themselves for a months or so. Ironically if there is a do-over in Florida that is where the money gap might make a difference.
3 To clarify I meant remaining primaries after Pennsylvania.
Mike@2: I think I agree with you, and I’ve made the same point myself in the past, but just to play devil’s advocate for a minute:
If I’ve got this right, Hillary raised 20 million dollars last month for her nomination campaign. That only seems like a small number because we’re comparing it to Obama’s 40 million.
Let’s imagine that she wants to stay at in until the convention. Maybe she’s hoping something bad will happen to Obama. Or maybe someone on her team has found that due to a misplaced comma in Section II, paragraph 6 of the Rules For Appealing The Report Of The Rules Committee’s Provisional Report To The Credentials Committee Concerning Delegate Credentials For Recursive Voting On The Credentials Committee’s Temporary Role (Revised), combined with a favour Bill Clinton did for one of the said committee’s chairman’s nieces in 1993 and the hidden camera they’ve been keeping in the other chairman’s hotel suite, they can seat Michigan and Florida and unseat all the states with caucuses.
Is the money really going to stop her? There aren’t that many delegates left, most voters have probably already made up her minds, and when you spend millions of dollars on advertising in medium-sized states it must have diminishing returns. There’s nothing very close beyond Indiana anyhow - how much would it really cost to keep her show on the road?
Bear in mind that she and her husband personally are not poor:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/feature/returns/
Obviously Mark Penn’s going to have to cut down on the doughnuts a bit, but is she really going to have to drop out for lack of funds?
5. Yes, if it weren’t for Obama, Clinton would have broken all records this time around. She certainly won’t run out of cash. However, Obama could still absolutely swamp the media market with the amount he’s raking in.
On topic, I think us political pundits are thinking everyone MUST know the two candidates by now, which really isn’t the case (outside that minority that watch the national news channels regularly) for a state until the primary is only two or three weeks away. A lot of Indiana Democrats will still only know Obama in terms of (1) being the bright young black candidate and (2) having a pastor who said some bad things. I suspect there will be much of rural Indiana that will swing towards him, other than the southern third of the state, which gets into hick country.
“Is there as yet any sense amongst Democrats that Hillary is in danger of seriously damaging the cause by remaining in the race. Were this to be so, even to a modest extent, say 2%, this could presumably have quite an effect on the outcome in Pennsylvania.”
I think this was the case a few weeks ago, when Clinton was trying her kitchen sink strategy, but this sense is easing now the fight’s cleaned up a bit. I always thought this was a partial aim of Obama’s surrogates calling for her to exit for the good of the party: she knows she can’t get too nasty or senior Democrats will start agreeing.
re 5. Well most of her recent money is earmarked solely for the election and can’t be used in the primary battle. She is also leaving a trail of unpaid traders across America which cannot be good news.
There’s another element as well - if you are a super delegate with your own state and local battles to think of who do you want at the top of the ticket - someone whose donor base is mostly maxed out or someone who has the potential to raise $2m every single day?
There simply is no contest.
is she hanging in to force a vp offering?
re 10. Test, I think she might be. It would be very hard for Barack to say no.
Following up on Mike’s point@9, here’s Andrew Romano at Newsweek:
“…assuming the pattern holds, it’s unlikely that Clinton raised more than $7 million that she can actually use against Obama–less, you’ll notice, than last month’s debt [$8.7 million], which is probably still outstanding. (And that’s not even counting the $5 million Clinton loaned her campaign at the end of January.)…”
http://tinyurl.com/69223a
Lucky Mark Penn still has his other clients…
Of course, she can only raise money to pay off the debt while it looks like she’s still in the race. Gives her every incentive to talk up the stuff about staying in until the convention, even if she fully intends to drop out before then.
5. It’s worth pointing out that $20 million is probably - highly - deceptive. In February, Obama raised $56 million, $54 million usable in the primary, while Clinton raised $35 million, only $11 million usable in the primary.
$20 million is a total (as is $40 million). If that same ratio of primary-general holds for February, Clinton pulled only $7 million in March and is already in the red and running a deficit. I would go so far as to suggest that the ratio may be even worse for Clinton in March, however, as she got a spike in small donors after February 5 but didn’t in March.
Obama, as usual, will have at least $35 million of the $40 million for the primary.
13. Here’s a link talking about just that: http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/03/could-money-woes-eventually-force-clinton-from-the-race.aspx
Thanks for the article, Morus.
You are probably right - you usually are - but I’m beginning to think Pennsylvania may put her out of her misery. It looks like she’ll struggle to win by more than 10% and anything less would surely be terminal? She down to 15% for the Nomination on Intrade now.
Gotta dash. Big race on today.
Peter the Punter..
Thanks for your tips!!
I’ve got a very wide book on the GN - being nervous as I am. I won’t *lose* anything on any of your horses, unless something incredible happens.
On your top 5, I’ve got a spread of £30-£60 profit. I’ve also taken a risk and sold the number of finishers at 15.
Here’s hoping!!
A nice summing up of the Boris V Ken contest.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/05/london08.london
Lots of contradictory reports around about that 20 million dollars.
This post takes apart the claim I linked to at @12 and Mike from New Jersey linked to @14, saying that Andrew Romano misunderstood the FEC report on which he based the claim that 2/3 of Hillary’s money was for the general not the primary:
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/04/reports-that-cl.html
…and Wolfson is claiming that “almost all” the 20 million is for the primary. (Although political campaigns have been known to lie.)
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/187437.php
Make of it what you will…
17. Marina Hyde has to be the funniest journalist around. Her article on the Manchester United sex romp was hilarious. She wanted to know why five footballers should share one girl when they could easily afford five each? ‘It must be something to do with teamwork’ she thought…….The only thing I find hard to understand is her fling with piers Morgan but no-ones perfect.
Thanks once again for standing in, Double Carpet. Because you don’t express strong opinions yourself, the site always feels particularly balanced when you’re running it - which isn’t meant to detract from Mike’s enormous achievement in creating a site where all of us feel comfortable.
Indiana wants me, not!
Thanks for holding the fort Double Carpet, a great job.
Marina Hyde link at 17
I don’t know about Aintree, but it’s snowing quite steadily here in Huddersfield this morning.
Confusing Telegraph report from Zimbabwe:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/05/wzim105.xml
Is it just me, or does the headline contradict the story, and is it true that independent observers agree with Mugabe that the MDC didn’t win outright?
[17][22] Indeed. FWIW, I think if the option of abolishing the Mayoralty and the GLA was available on May 1, Londoners would take it.
I really like the idea of a rest of the world column.
16 You are welcome, Casino.
Your sell of 15 finishers should be OK. It certainly won’t be much more.
26 - I think we could do with it after the insular tedium of the London Mayoralty race is over.
27 Backing 15 starters, selling 15 finishers - is that what one calls playing it safe?
24 Nick - the sample taken by the VESN (the most likely independents to be referred to) showed that Tsvangarai had just below 50% but it was a sample so polling error rates apply, so actual votes counted for Tsvangarai could be somewhere between 47.5% and 52.5%. Reporters don’t understand sampling error and probabilities.
Problem is that while figures can be tied back to the electoral tallies in most cases, those are after inclusion of postal votes (almost all reportedly for Zanu-PF), after voters were sent away from polling stations for variety of reasons - rejection of their identification, polling station rolls not including their names though they had a few weeks before - police “aiding” voters in rural districts. So likely inflation of Zanu-PF votes anyway.
What seems accepted is Mugabe came second - will be interesting to see if that is the case when ZEC publishes the figures.
Thank you Morus for the article. Also Paul ‘the rug’ Maggs for his stewardship of the site. I also notice that the jail bird from ConHome, Peter the Punter, had the previous thread. I fear he’ll soon be sewing threads in ConHome mail bags pretty soon !!
…………………..
On thread. I’d expect Hillary to edge out a small win in Pennsylvania, but small wins are not enough and unlike Ohio, Obama has far more time to concerntrate his efforts on the state. Presently I’d say Indiana will lean Obama with North Carolina, the same day, heavily favouring Obama - at least a 20 point win.
Some of Hillary’s advisers are reportingly ready to abandon ship after Indiana/NC if her results are poor …. and then there’s the steady drip of Super delegate, the cash flow etc etc.
It’s been over for weeks now, the only thing that could derail Obama from hereon in would have to be nothing to do with the remaining primaries - major scandal or the ever present fear of the assassin’s bullet. People have overestimated Clinton on this and misread the way that SD’s will go, if you look at the pattern it is incontrovertible, Obama ends up with a clear victory.
As for VP I’m sure that they will look at the polls and if she looks like being a drag on the ticket she won’t get the call.
BTW, if Richard still can’t seem to find PtP’s email address maybe he could just send me the money now.
CNN have the Super Delagate gap now down to only 28.
Clinton 243 Obama 215, seems to be slowly, but inevitably, closing all the time.
The point may be fast coming when ordinary Democrat voters, wherever they are, will see and hear the mood swing and follow it.
I would now bet on Obama to win Pennsylvannia. I would expect him to take Indiana.
Interesting to see what dirty campaigning takes place between now and then
24 Nick - if you are interested the following blogs & sites are worth reading
http://kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/
http://www.sokwanele.com/
http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe/
http://www.zimbabwetoday.co.uk/
http://comradefatso.vox.com/
Independent NGO site - slow to load
http://www.zesn.org.zw/
For the ZanuPF view of the world
http://www.herald.co.zw/
The ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ now down to 8.8% !!
http://www.slate.com/id/2188300/
There was a very good article on the remaining Democratic primaries by Sean Oxendine on RCP the other day, his comments on Indiana were:
“People are assuming that Obama will do well in Indiana, in part because of the close proximity to the Chicago media market. We can test this somewhat. Take a look at Western MO.
Looking at this, I am fairly confident that Obama did not enjoy any significant spillover in “home state” support. I can tell much more easily where St. Louis and the University of Missouri are located than I can Illinois. There is some “greening” of the map as we move further North, but we would expect this, given results in IA and WI. This is consistent with what we saw in Illinois as well, except that the state as a whole was biased toward Obama (as one would expect from his home state), so downstate was still somewhat green. NOTE: You could do this for WI as well, but it will be hopelessly biased, since the counties bordering IL comprise the great Milwaukee and Madison areas. But even here, his performance in counties bordering IL runs about 10% below what they did in Illinois counties just across the border.
So I don’t accept much of a spillover. Moreover, I suspect that the eighth and ninth districts in the South will go heavily for Clinton, though the University of Indiana may give him a bit of a boost in the Ninth. Moreover, looking at the Ohio maps, she ran about ten points ahead of Obama in the counties bordering IN — which bodes well for his performance in the Sixth and Third. The Fourth and Fifth are harder to predict, though given their small-town and rural feel, I would guess there would be a good turnout.
Many have speculated that Obama will do well in the First and the Seventh. I suspect he will do well in the latter (Indianapolis). Marion county is about 1/4 black, and much of the inner suburban area is in this district.
But what about the First, with Gary? In truth, Lake County is about 26% black. But the rest of the county is ethnic whites — not exactly Obama’s wheelhouse. Moreover, there is a long history of racial tension here, with the current congressman, Peter Visclosky, defeating an appointed AA representative back in the 80s, much to the chagrin of local AAs. In short, I’m not sure how many votes Obama really gets here.
Which to my mind, shapes up to a Clinton win. I will call it 8%, but that is just a guess, and I am guessing that it is on the pro-Obama side.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html
24. Do I detect a tingle of excitement in Nick’s post at the prospect that Comrade Bob might yet hang on?
23. I don’t know about Aintree, but it’s snowing quite steadily here in Huddersfield this morning.
Yes! It has snowed to quite a low level (Above sea level)! The temp dropped 3 degrees! If you are here in huddersfield a long time - you will have to call yourself Peter from Huddersfield! Have you seen the tinsel round Harold Wilsons neck by the way? It was there yesterday!
36. Yes, it shows how a governing party can use the levers of state to hang onto office! Mugabe’s tricks will give Comrade Gordon some further ideas of how to snatch victory from defeat - lets face facts Labour have already implemented many of the ideas that Lord Malloch-Brown recently cited as distorting the electoral system in Zimbabwe.
31. & 33.
I predict Hilary will win Penn. and Indiana by 2-5% each. Obama to win N. Carolina by 17-22%.
With such a big win in NC, Edwards home state, Obama must really have pi**ed him off not to get his support.
Anyway the longer this lasts the more painful for Clinton. At least at PB.com its stopped all the Boris/Ken shagged all London threads….well some of them!
36. Remeber that Comrade Bob is part of the international socialist/communist family. Mugabe is a trail blazer for the left making all Zimbabwe citizens millionaires and a high proportion of the population billionaires - Socialism in action!!!
37 Martin, indeed yes and he’s already got a pipeful of the white stuff …..(adopt nasal tones)… I’ll have to mention this at the Brighton conference.
37 Good grief, MArtin. You mean that in Huddersfield, it’s a SNOWY MORNING….? Now could that be a hint, I wonder?
39. Well after May 1st, they will no longer refer to the London mayor building as the testicle but “Boris’s b*llock!” Labour will be gunning for boris from day 1 and trying to castrate his progress.
Mrs Clinton using humour on one of these nightly talk shows. It will save money from the advertising budget.
http://tinyurl.com/3wq72q
42. Indeed, it started out hailing and then changed to snow
Ed balls more commonly known as Snowflake5 would love it!
41. “the white stuff” - hope it is snow and not crack cocaine!!!
11 Equally it would be very hard for Hillary to say no to any of, Supreme Court noomination, Senate majority Leader, senior cabinet position, ambassadorship to Mars..She’d be such a drag on the ticket the pressure I think the pressures would if anything be stronger on Obama in the opposite direction. That’s before you get onto Bill’s behaviour in South Carolina..
The chill wind of recession is starting to blow:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/apr/05/mortgages.hbosbusiness
I have picked up on a number of my peer group in Huddersfield finding themselves out of work. Some individuals i am aware of are people of particularly high skills sets in IT programing. So immigration of individuals in the good times of “high spec” or specialised skills is one thing. In a downturn this will really cost the Labour party i am sure. Brown was wrong to say that immigration was a good thing and that it should not be controlled. Makes you wonder why he changed the name of the body that “controls” the borders to “border police” - maybe it was just another gimmick?
For all you early to bedders, here’s a re-post from me last night:
Pegasus of the News of the World has it thus:
1 Chelsea Harbour
2 Slim Pickings
3 Comply or Die
Exactly the same first three as PtP, albeit in a different order - unbelievable! Now answer me one question - have you ever seen Pegasus and PtP in the same room together?
Nope, I thought not!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7325484.stm
Of course each PBer will have to make up their own mind, but for my money it’s case proven, they are one and the same person. Henceforth I shall instead refer to PtP as Peg, or if it’s OK by him, as Peggy.
Peggy the Punter !!
I knew I’d heard her top the charts some years back !!
http://www.series-books.com/peggylane/peggy5.jpg
50/51
I been called worse things!
And will be again after the Grand National !!
Hmmm…maybe, Jack, but if Comply Or Die trots up, I’ll be drinking chanmpagne while you, my Jacobite friend, will be looking for something with which to wash down the humble pie.
Bon appetite.
55 my wife picked our selections Comply or Die, Slim Pickings and Chelsea Harbour - all based on liking the name but I can only imagine she sneakily read your post from earlier on
Re. the other thread.
Have I missed something regarding McKelvey? I’m baffled by some of the remarks being made about said horse there!
I always put 2 bets on; one outsider and one mid-short priced horse. Was thinking of backing McKelvey for the latter (already chosen Black Apalachi for my outsider).
Peter the Punter- thanks for your tips- have placed the hedge one, and to win on chelsea, or the other way round. I now know the difference between place and to win so I must be half way to becoming an expert on the nags.
I will let my wife pick another
By the way have just cashed in on Boris on betfair for a tidy profit- I have an inkling that Ken will pull himself back into this race, and the outcome will be too close to call. I have also cashed in on Obama on the president market- I will wait awhile to see if his price slips if Hillary wins Penn.
57. Me too. Await a reply to your post with interest.
‘Chelsea Harbour’. The promise of expensive yachts and fresh fish. I’m with Mrs Kingbongo. ‘Comply or Die’ and ‘Slim Pickings’ just don’t do it somehow.
Martin at 44. Time for your anatomy class followed by a double lesson in talk board etiquette.
44- Martin- if Boris does win, and I am now thinking it is a big “if” I do not think that anyone would need to undermine Boris- he will do it all himself.
There seems to be some comment about re: King John’s Castle.
57 Ian
Last year the horse had the race at his mercy when it went lame with a serious tendon injury. Instead of jumping off, the jockey pressed on. It finished a cripple in second place.
Instead of retiring it, they rehabilitated it and it’s running again. If it breaks down again, connections will have a lot to answer for and National Hunt racing will have a major PR problem on its hands.
PtP. Thank you for your replying. Fingers crossed.
64- poor horse. Beautiful animals. I wouldn’t dare sitting on one mind. Afraid of heights.
I hope that he gets through the race today in one piece.
A family member married a guy whose family owned and ran a racing stable. It used to be a bit of a treat going over and ‘riding’ [in my case, a bit being placed on top of a very large elegant donkey]. Used to frighten the bl**dy life out of me.
I know so many horsey people who have been seriously injured incuding my aunt who ended up under a gate with a horse running over the top after it had bolted. As a horse mad woman, she blamed it on the gate.
My wife picked our selections Comply or Die, Slim Pickings and Chelsea Harbour - all based on liking the name but I can only imagine she sneakily read your post from earlier on
I suspect you may well be right - Queenbongo, Peggy and Pegasus all making three identical selections and from such a huge field, I don’t think so somehow.
67 It doesn’t seem fair on gates does it? I mean everything gets blamed on them since Richard Milhous Nixon.
64 - Putting to one side the morality of running a horse that has recovered for injured, from a purely betting perspective what grounds have you for saying it “can’t run and/or jump” if it finished a strong second last year when lame?
56, 68 Kingbongo, excuse me for asking, but a thought occurs… have your wife and PtP ever been seen in the same room together and is her name Margaret by any chance?
I’ve followed a few links about McKelvey, and i think it’s fair to say that PtP’s isn’t an unchallenged interpretation. Picked up the injury in the last 100 yards, and some contention about the seriousness of the injury.
70 Horses rarely recover their former ability after serious injury, Alex.
As it happens, I’m so disgusted it is being run that I wouldn’t back it even if I thought it might win. Like Sally, I think horses are beautiful animals. They risk their lives every time they run. I can accept that, but the quid pro quo is that we take every care of them and ensure they are subjected only to reasonable risks.
The connections of McKelvey have, imo, shown poor judgement. I just hope the beast get round OK.
73.How can they get away with this PtP? Did anything happen regards pushing this horse on when it was injured?
71 PfP - all this talk of Peggy the Punter gives me an excuse to post a graphic (hat tip Iain Dale) which is probably as horrifying to those on the left as it is to those on the right (and definitely worse than Mike’s use of the Cameron Toff graphic)
http://tinyurl.com/6n8tyt
Off topic.
“Researchers have created a computer ranking system that consistently predicts US basketball rankings more accurately than polls of sportswriters, coaches, currently used formulas and computer models, and even the tournament seeds themselves.”
http://itnews.com.au/News/73303,computer-system-makes-best-sports-bets.aspx
Off thread but thins dont look good. This from red box blog about worries that the budget might not get through….
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/04/another-indicat.html
74 I suspect, ChrisD, that if it had been an ordinary race the jockey would have jumped off but you can understand the dilemma. You have to accept that the trainer, who is well respected, knows the animal and the injury best but I think it’s taking a dreadful risk.
Jack W Post 31
Once again, I agree with every word. There are days when I read your posts and think that I must have schizophrenia; I might be writing them under the name JackW, but when I return to being malc19ken I’m in total oblivion.
It doesn’t appear any more to be a discussion about whether H Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama will win; that’s pretty much sewn up. What now intrigues, is when Clinton will jack it in and how she’ll do it. This, to me, is far more intriguing.
Just watched a video of the Obama speech to the North Dakota Democratic Covention. What a stormer. There he was in front of an all white [virtually] audience out in the great plains and was being cheered to the rafters by between 15,000 and 17,000 people. The last politician to draw such crowds and to receive such obvious popularity from the traditionally laconic North Dakotans was FDR!!
Can’t wait to get back to our lodge on the prairies; we arrive back there on April 22nd. Go Sioux go! I’m going to try to see a couple of Jamestown College Jimmies’ baseball games this time.
Malcolm
56.With my usual lack of horse racing knowledge, I have gone for the names I like, Dun Doire, but also Snowy Morning…because its been snowing this morning.
78.Fingers crossed.
75 You’re right Ted, it is a truly dreadful image.
Went to have my haircut this morning, well it’s £9 in this rather pleasant village outside Hudds, compared with £18+ in Putney and whilst waiting as one does, I started scanning through the Express which was offering a free £5 matching bet to account holders of Blue Suare. The trouble is I can’t remember the redemption code - can anyone with a copy help me please?
75 is that gordon in 20 years time?
Peter Hoskin onA period of family meltdown?.
WELL DONE PORTSMOUTH!!!!
O/T a storming performance by Lib Dem MP Evan Harris on Radio 4’s question time today.
Tough on the Baggies, commiserations to stjohn, a dream ends here.
74,78 - Hang on a minute. Are you disputing that the horse didn’t pick up it’s injury in the last 100 yards?
I’m not even sure that the jockey really knew the horse was injured until he finished.
I remember at the time it was initially thought the injury was very serious - the screens went up and everyone assumed that it had been put down. But it turns out this was an unnecessary reaction. And, I’ve found one BBC report which had the horse parading in his local village the next day. So whether “crippled” is really accurate is disputable.
I would just point out that if “lame” horses never ran again then Red Rum would have never one the Grand National once, let alone three times.
86,True,but their season is far from over,as their play-off/promotion hopes are still very much alive-and I am sure promotion to the top flight would be a huge consolation
81 Peter from Putney
I have my haircut at the local College. I am a model for the students who are on the barbering course. The haircut is free but I always tip generously. I get about 50-60 minutes in the chair and the tutor always inspects the progress of the students.
I can honestly say that the experience is superb and Mrs Malc19ken has concluded that my hair [plural] has never looked better.
On topic. Indiana is a most boring state to drive through and by avoiding it one can see some pleasant parts of other states. When Obama has time to work a state he does well; when he makes fewer appearences he does less well. He is all about closing gaps now, and if he turns a negative into a positive then that’s a triumph.
Malcolm
Apologies by the way PtP, if i’ve sounded a bit confrontational.
I just think that unless there are any serious doubts about the horse’s fitness then i don’t really see the problem. To say otherwise is akin to arguing for the race to be banned full stop. Saying that a horse “isn’t the same after being injured” isn’t the same as saying that the simple fact of that injury means he is likely to fail to complete.
There are enough nohopers in the Grand National, poor jumpers, or those with doubts about their stamina to get round to wonder if criticising one set of connections should lead to criticism of several.
Late footy suggestion - back Forest at home vs Cheltenham at 0.57/1 with Corals or 0.58/1 on Betfair, but hurry kick-off is in 17 minutes.
90 No apologies necessary, Alex. Plenty of room for more than one opinion on this but on a question of fact, no, I’m not implying the injury occurred earlier in the race. As regards the jockey, he would almost certainly have known the moment it happened. The horse’s action would have gone. It’s rather like a driver hearing or feeling something go in a car. Jockeys normally stop a horse and jump off as soon as they feel the action go. 100 yards from the finish of the GN, you could understand him staying on. I just happen to think it was lucky the horse survived and taking it back to undertake such an extreme test again is pushing it a bit.
It’s just my opinion though and I appreciate it is not shared universally.
92 - Fair enough. I’ve got 30p on for a fairy tale
New thread - YouGov: SNP touch 40% in Scotland
Rasmussen tracker today show Obama’s biggest ever lead….
Obama 51%
Clinton 41%
Very satisfactory, I’m sure you will agree….
Alex.
I understand that the training and running of Red Rum was not without controversy [unless that was confined to my ‘mad aunt’ who is very passionate about their welfare].
89 Malcolm, it sounds to me like you’ve got it cracked with free haircuts - I suppose the question I have to ask is does Mrs Malcolm choose to go there also?
My slight concen is that you spend up to an hour in the chair - it has always been my experience that the shorter the duration (a maximum of 15 minutes in my case), the more skilled the hair cutter and therefore the better the haircut.
Of course, if you’re having a colour, perm, etc, well that’s a different matter.
It would seem that there is an extreme paucity of Daily Express readers on PB.com and as a result I’m about to lose out on my free Blue Sqare bet.
95. On the ball, Paul.
Malcolm
96 Sally - would that be the same aunt who blamed a gate for being trampled by a horse?
36 - Dave B - That’s a great article by Sean Oxendine, and picks up two themes that deserve repeating.
Appalachia, as a region spanning WV, KY, VA, TN, PA, OH and downstate NY has gone solidly against Obama. More interestingly, southern Illinois, western Missouri - there are regions in ‘Obama’ states where he didn’t perform too well - outweighed by great performances in specific centres of population.
The other thing is that, with IL spillover-theory discounted, Obama would at least be assured of IN-7th and IN-1st because both Indianapolis and Gary have more than 25% African-American populations. However, whilst Indianapolis bears this out, Clinton might well still win the 1st district, implying that Obama is not securing the Af-Am population by quite the same margin as previously (from almost 90% to just above 80%). A fall of 8% in Af-Am support post Pastorgate suggests that maybe his brilliant disassiciation from Pastor Wright’s views without disowning him personally actually drew something of a line between Obama and old-school/Black nationalist support in that demographic.
O/T I have SNOWY MORNING in a charity sweepstake at work. Rumour has it that with three legs and no jumping ability, this is unlikely to see me winning the prize. Someone pointed out that my chosen (by lottery) steed may in fact be a goat masquerading as a shire pony.
Tips for this weekend are that Ospreys should beat Saracens in the Heineken Cup (two weeks ago they made the same victory look scarily easy), so unless complacency sets in and Saracens build an early lead, I think Mike Phillips being replaced by Justin Marshall will not be enough for the English club to win.
Cardiff RFC (I will not call them the ‘Blues’) are very long odds against Toulouse (6.4 on Betfair) - this would be easy to lay-off in-play if there this narrows as result of early scores from Cardiff. If they win, I’ll be delighted.
Cardiff City FC are favourites to beat Barnsley, which concerns me, as they are better without the weight of expectation - I think if Barnsley win, they stand a very good chance against Portsmouth, and 10.5 to win outright is very good value given there are only 2 other teams left to beat, and neither is a top Premiership side.
97 PfP
Interesting question. The wife has her hair tonsorialized by her friend in a top floor apartment; nice lady, used to have her own salon. She refuses to take any money from Mrs Malc19ken but we smuggle in flowers and chocs and coffees out, so to speak.
No wonder we can afford to be international property owners.
Malcolm
101 Malcolm, well it was always said that Paul Getty had a payphone installed for his guests’ use at Sutton Place, his mansion near Guildford - it sounds as if you are following a similar philosophy. Nothing wrong with that of course.
Is the credit crunch yet having any material negative impact on the value your international property holdings?
93 I promise you Alex that if you collect I won’t be the slightest bit upset. It will mean the horse got round safe.
Atb
92
after your great tip at 92, i guess it’ll be a few pints in the Green Man tonight… result 3-1
Interesting article in the Telegraph today about the possibility of the US launching air strikes against Iran imminently. Petraeus is apparently shortly going to come out and say that Iran is effectively waging war against the Iraqi Government and therefore indirectly againt the US which is seen as a precursor to direct US action against Iran. If this happens it could put both Obama and Clinton in a very interesting position and could possibly have a major effect on the Obama / Clinton contest .Which way would Obama jump? If he oppposes air strikes it would open up the whole patriotism issue again and his support could evaporate overnight.