Is Berlusconi set for a third term in Italy?
April 6th, 2008“Il Cavaliere” down to 1.3 on Betfair - can Veltroni stop him?
Double Carpet looks at Italian politics ahead of the election
Italy goes to the polls next Sunday and Monday, and following hot on the heels of the Spanish election, it provides a good “compare and contrast”. Since 1983 there have been only three Prime Ministers in Spain (Gonzalez, Aznar, Zapatero), and indeed only three French Presidents, three German Chancellors, and four occupants each in Downing Street and the White House. Many PBers would probably be able to name the full set of these, but few if any (with the possible exception of Andrea) could name the fifteen Prime Ministers of Italy during the last 25 years without assistance from the internet. (A full list is at the bottom of the article.)
Discussing European politics without Italy would be a bit like Formula One without Ferrari, but it really is different in so many ways. The traditional post-war pattern was for a Christian Democrat-led coalition government keeping the Communists out of power (not until 1981 was there a non-DC PM). Following the “Mani Pulite” (Clean Hands) investigations in the early 1990s, which uncovered massive political corruption (Tangentopoli), the traditional parties disappeared as their support collapsed and the extent of the corruption emerged.
Such was the sea-change in Italian politics, virtually unparalleled in a democracy in the modern era, that the new political system was referred to as the “Second Republic”. Into the political vacuum stepped Silvio Berlusconi – he became PM after the 1994 elections, but his Forza Italia party did not even exist at the end of 1993. Berlusconi’s first term was short-lived after the Lega Nord withdrew its support, but after the first centre-left government since the war took power in 1996, governing for five years under three PMs (Romano Prodi the first of these), Berlusconi returned to power in 2001. Whatever else may be said about Berlusconi, this was a time of stability for Italian politics, as he actually managed to complete a full 5-year term.
The April 2006 election saw a knife edge win for the centre-left “Unione” coalition under Prodi, with no fewer than nine parties in his government (almost as many parties as Germany and Austria combined), and given the narrowness of his majority in the Senate (unhelpfully, an Italian government needs a majority in both Houses) did quite well to hold things together for two years until the small UDEUR party withdrew its support. Prodi’s government was still in the seven longest-serving since the war.
So, to 2008. Prodi will step down from politics after the election, and actually the Italian party system is simpler than for some years, although it often seems like a “Rock Family Trees” programme of Fleetwood Mac or similar. Berlusconi’s Forza Italia has merged with the Allenza Nazionale to create the Popolo della Liberta (People of Liberty) – this heads the Berlusconi coalition with the Lega Nord and the MPA. The standard-bearer of the centre-left is Walter Veltroni, leader of the new Partito Democratico, which is a merger of two parties - also in the Veltroni coalition is the Italy of Values and a few Radical candidates. The other two party lists worth a mention are the UDC (Union of the Centre) and The Left – The Rainbow which includes the Greens, two (!) Communist parties and the Democratic Left.
In the final polls (banned by law in the final fortnight), the Berlusconi coalition has had a lead of about 6-8 points over Veltroni. Both leaders have emphasized the importance of getting Italy’s finances on a more secure footing, while Veltroni has broken a major political taboo by virtually accusing Berlusconi of being tied to the Mafia. Both Berlusconi and Veltroni have often stressed the importance of a voto utile, a useful vote, ie voting for PdL or PD and not for UDC, The Left, or other fringe parties as they can’t win. Finally, there has not been any leaders’ debate between Berlusconi and Veltroni and there won’t be one.
Berlusconi is about 1.3 on Betfair to be next PM (President of the Council of Ministers is the Italian term) and that may well be value, although Silvio himself has worried about the likelihood of gaining a majority in the Senate elections, where it is performance by region, rather than nationally, that matters. In the Chamber of Deputies, the winning party will automatically have a seat bonus, to ensure a majority - so under the current electoral system, it will always be the Senate where coalitions may struggle to secure a working majority (and where of course Prodi’s government lost the confidence vote which led to its collapse).
Finally, although the election will probably not be as close as 2006, it will still be worth watching as results come through on Monday 14th. We can probably already call the “red belt” (Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria, Marche) for Veltroni, Berlusconi should be home and dry in much of the north (Lombardy, Veneto, Piemonte, Friuli-Venezia-Giulia) as well as Sicily and Puglia, but will the rest of the country give “Il Cavaliere” the support he needs to secure both Houses and his third term as Presidente - or will the UDC emerge as kingmakers?
Betting call: Back Berlusconi, possibly with a small saver on “Any Other”. I will be very surprised to see Veltroni emerge as the new PM. Don’t forget to use the betting links and help keep Politicalbetting going.
(Italian PMs since the start of 1983: Fanfani IV (first PM in 1954!), Craxi, Fanfani V, Goria, de Mita, Andreotti III, Amato I, Ciampi, Berlusconi I, Dini, Prodi I, D’Alema, Amato II, Berlusconi II, Prodi II. There have been 37 PMs since the Republic began in 1946 - full list here - De Gasperi 1946-53 and Berlusconi 2001-06 being the longest continuous terms.).
Suggested further reading:
Molto Grazie to Andrea for reviewing the article and for his comments.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
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I’m sure that The Right Honourable Tessa Jowell MP has staked her mortgage on “Il Cavaliere” .
an article on the election - it won’t be as exciting as the one in 2006
http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/17085
Well done Paul. Very very good piece.
Some numbers that may be of interest…Senate results in 2006.
Regions won by Berlusconi:
Veneto (17.6% majority)
Sicilia (17.3%)
Lombardia (14.3%)
Friuli (10.4%)
Puglia (4%)
Lazio (1.1%)
Piemonte (1%)
Regions won by Prodi:
Toscana (22.6%)
Basilicata (21.3%)
Emilia (18.8%)
Umbria (14.4%)
Calabria (14.2%)
Marche (8.8%)
Ligurua (6.6%)
Abruzzo (6.4%)
Sardegna (5.6%)
Campania (0.5%)
then there’re Valle d’Aosta which is a FPTP constituency in practice. The contest is between a local autonomiscit centrist party and a centre-left alliance of various local identities.
Trentino Alto Adige has 6 FPTP seats + 1 top up PR seat.
The 2 German speaking constituencies will return SVP (German speaking People’s Party) easily. Bolzano constituency should return the SVP incumbent who has the support of Democratic Party.
The “real” contests will be in Trentino. Berlusconi won 1 constituency in 2006 (Pergine Fiemme Fassa by 0.9% margin), whilst Prodi won Trento-Val di Non (5.6% majority) and Rovereto-Riva del Garda seat (9.6% majority)
Molise region has 2 seats: so we can call them now. Ulisse di Giacomo (a new entry after the incumbent was not confirmed) will be elected Senator for PdL and Augusto Massa will be re-elected for PD.
Then there’re naturally the 6 seats for ex-spats, Italians living abroad. Europe has 2 seats and will be 1 for PD and 1 for PdL. The Asia-Africa-Oceania constituency can be pretty close whilst PdL should gain North America from PD (they lost it in 2006 because they weren’t united into a single list). The 2 seats for South America are less easy to predict because of the presense of Indipendents (one of them elected in 2006).
Off Topic.
“Daniel Kawczynski MP is leading efforts to create an All Party Parliamentary Group devoted to defending the FPTP electoral system against the possibility of Brown pushing a new system through Parliament.
Twenty-five Labour MPs joined straightaway (especially those with experience of PR in Scotland) and three to four times that number are expected to join in the coming months - a sufficiently high number to make Brown think twice when he already has so many other rebellions brewing.”
3. IMO among 2006 Silvio’s regions the only one “in play” is Lazio. Veltroni was Rome mayor and Rome voters are the main part of Lazio regions (he can have some personal vote there) and The Right (a split from Allenza Nazionale led by Storace, former Cabinet Minister and former Lazio President) can eat into PdL vote more here than in other regions.
The other regions should give Silvio a majority again.
Among 2006 Prodi’s regions, I see Marche as more “stable” towards CL than, for ex, Calabria who had a bigger majority in 2006. Calabria has been pretty erratic in its voting patters recently, so it’s defenetely in play this time. Infact both camps said it will probably be very close one way or the other.
On the other hand Marche has been more traditionally CL in recent years. Last year’s elections in Ancona province saw a 17.2% lead to CL and in 2006 in Ancona province they had a 18.7% lead. So I would say Marche is probably leaning towards Veltroni.
Liguria, Abruzzo and Sardinia can potentially be a close call.
Campania should be a Silvio gain this time. Local problems in Naples will help him too (the “rubbish all over streets” problem also mentioned in UK media some months ago)
Fantastic work, both by Double Carpet and Andrea - thanks both.
I must confess that whilst I oculd name all the other European leaders, Italy was beyon me, and I was surprised at just how unstable this appears to be - I can’t think of comparable tumult without thinking of the French Fourth Republic.
Do Italians find this ever-changing map frustrating? Is anyone discussing Constitutional changes (like De Gaulle’s insistence on a strong executive) or a Third Republic?
Many thanks Double. You have a good grasp of the country.
Italy is a country of contradictions. The most beautiful, cultured, family oriented country in Europe. Intelligent, great food, great wine, and il calcio.
Then there is the TV, and the most appallingly government in Europe.
Sometimes I think we should all be thankful the government is as bad as it is. The last time a unified Italy had a good government it ran the world. Was about 2000 years ago or so.
If anyone deserves the right to be the chosen people it is the Italians. Every time I go there I am in awe of them, yet pity them as well. As said a country of contradictions.
A question to Andrea;
There is a turnout market and also Romes mayor market on Unibet.
80.00% or more
79.99% or less
Rutelli, Francesco
Alemanno, Gianni
Storace, Francesco
What do you think?
Craxi is the quintesenial example of how and why the italian political system is in a brown creek.
A question to Andrea;
There is a turnout market and also Romes mayor market on Unibet.
Total turnout:
80.00% or more
79.99% or less
Who is going to be Romes next mayor:
Rutelli, Francesco
Alemanno, Gianni
Storace, Francesco
What do you think?
8. The few polls (not many were done) last month on Rome mayoral race had Rutelli leading but not reaching the 50% in the first round. So he would need a run off with Alemanno.
Then it would depend on the Storace’s vote…and on Rutelli’s first round % too: if it’s around 48% he should not have many problems, if it’s in low 40% it became complicated for him.
Re turnout. In 2006 the turnout was 81.4% (counting Italians abroad)*. 83.6% on the mainland. Does the bet include just the mainland or exspats included?
*actually I see it’s not the final one as I see that the Home Office website didn’t even finish to update the last info from the last few areas for ex spats!
Naturally on election days there’ll be turnout updates at noon of the first day, at 7 PM and then at 10 PM of the first voting day.
So if you can still bet whilst elections are taking place, you can have an idea if turnout is up or down.
Sorry but off thread and going back to a previous discussion.
‘Oh no! Balls is never going to get the top job, you Balls -dislikers are just being ridiculous’…. Yeh, right.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3689924.ece
Sorry to veer wildly OT - though we are talking about embarrassing politicians, so maybe its OK…
I’ve just been checking those hilarious photos of Brown with the big orange blotch on his forehead.
It reminds me of an Economics tutor at my old Sixth Form College. His name was Mr Roderick, and despite his relative youth he was pretty stiff and humourless, rather geeky and self conscious. He was obviously intelligent, but his charm was meagre and he had no common sense.
In other words, he was like Brown.
Anyway one day Mister Roderick came into college with a huge red blotch on his forehead - just like Brown’s, but bright red rather than orange.
The trouble is Mister Roderick didn’t acknowledge the blotch. He just tried to carry on as if it was normal for a man to have a large, perfectly circular, bright crimson blob suddenly appear on his face. He was too stiff and awkward to make a joke about it, too uptight to explain what had happened.
The result was total hilarity in the college, intense sniggering in classes, open and derisive laughter every time he appeared, people stuffing handkerchiefs into their mouths when he came round a corner, to try and stifle their giggles, etc etc
From then on he was always known as “Rodders the Blotch” and was the butt of cruel humour for as long as I was at the college. I’m not sure his reputation ever recovered. They’re probably still calling him Rodders the Blotch even now.
Thing is, he could have defused this from the off, as I say, with a casual, self deprecating joke. He could have just told us all what actually happened (it turned out that his baby daughter had stuck a drain plunger on his head).
But he didn’t, cause he was too awkward and selfconscious. So that made it very much worse.
I think Brown, being a similar personality, is never going to recover from these endless humiliations. Brown the Blob. Mr Bean. The label has stuck and it won’t peel away. He’s finished.
the final tournout was 83.6% on the mainland and 42.07% among Italians abroad….
Map of Italian regions:
http://www.waet.uga.edu/wiki/images/0/0e/Italy_1.jpg
N1 Cardiff but if they play like that in May you may as well give the Cup to Harry now…..
PORKER ALERT
Are Labour MP’s Alan and Ann Keen the greediest MP’s in Westminster?
According to to-days Sunday Telegraph these two porkers have claimed a staggering £ 40,000 (without submitting a receipt) with no explanation why they need (OUR MONEY)paid out under the additional cost allowance.
The worst bit is that these porkers claim for a second home in central London because their constituency home is a staggering 9 MILES AWAY IN BRENTFORD.
Time for these porkers to go the same way as Conway.
Mugabe’s mob want a recount! How sick is this? A party which tried so blatantly to rig an election demanding a recount !? Zimbabwe is a total affront to democratic values and there should be international intervention immediately.
Brilliant analysis. Well done. Maybe the one factor left out is the after-effect of the fall of the Berlin Wall. The Christian Democrats were the first to be blown apart because they lost their main reason for living and the old Communist Party is still evolving towards whatever seems more popular on the world stage - first it was New Labour (until the Iraq war when Silvio got into bed with Tony) and now Veltroni’s slogans are Italian translations of Barak Obama’s. Also, Veltroni’s “new” party is a descendant of the old dear PCI. The Christian Democrats exploded but their politicians have now managed to attach themselves to both Government and Opposition no matter who wins through an array of small parties with similar Christian Democrat type names. The tight situation in the Senate allowed wily old devils like Andreotti to keep the Prodi Government hostage every time any proposals were made against the interests of the Church (e.g.gay marriages and the outrageous proposal that priests should not be exempt from paying their local council charge equivalent). To partly answer 6. Yes, Italians do get very frustrated not only with the ever changing tinkering about with the electoral system but also, paradoxically, with the immobile nature of Italian political patronage which, in my humble opinion, is the real problem. We might have good pasta, wine, il calcio (even if the half-empty stadiums might be significant),art and sunshine, but on a regional level we also have the same people sitting in their “poltrone” (politichese for their seats of power) for at least the last twenty years the only difference being that they are wearing different hats. The metamorphoses at national level merely allows them a greater choice of bandwagon.
Silvio does seem to be poised for a third victory but his image is also taking a worrying turn with his extensive plastic surgery looking increasingly embarrasing. The current political mess was also his own doing since had he left the electoral system alone when he was last in power he would have actually won the last election when Prodi (another ex-DC) came to power. People’s fears and anxieties tend to play a larger role than they used to. Have pity on us for the rum choices presented to us and if only we could choose between Brown,Cameron and Cleggy! How’s about a swap?
19. “Also, Veltroni’s “new” party is a descendant of the old dear PCI.”
The great majroty of old PCI+parts of old DC with a superficial makeover (a young girl, an entrepeneur, a worker, a Catholic tv host and a le*bian and you have half of PD list!) to show to not “political” people that “we’re new”.
“with the immobile nature of Italian political patronage which, in my humble opinion, is the real problem.”
which in some areas seem as strong as ever.
Isn’t this a risky punt??
No opinion polls for 2 weeks before the elections. And a fickle (no offence intended Andrea) Italian electorate to think about?
Makes me nervous.
Not sure it’s worth risking £100 for a £32 return.
Surely there’s a good chance Berlusconi won’t make it?
8. I do not know if the Italians abroad are included.But i guess so.What attracts me is that this bet provides better value that the next PM and Romes mayor bets.
Here are the odds:
80.00% or more 1.75
79.99% or less 2.00
Thank to ‘The Rug’ and Andrea for the article. Look forward to more in the future.
………………………
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 46% .. Obam 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106141/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-3Point-Edge-Over-Clinton.aspx
If Labour are demented enough to make Ed Balls their leader, they deserve what’s coming to them.
Still he’s got a point about faith schools. It’s blatantly obviously that most of them are ‘middle class’ comprehensives. Anyone who thinks these schools succeed academically because of their nominal faith must be mad. I went to a faith primary school and it was pretty much irrelevant. What is the matter with this country? Do you think all the good schools on the continent are ‘faith’ schools? I doubt it.
24 Most of them are primary schools. I think that good schools will inevitably attract middle class parents, regardless of how they are structured.
Chris from Paris pointed out that about a third of French schools are faith schools, and I would’ve thought the proportion would also be high in Italy and Germany.
From the last thread, it was suggested (with a bit of tongue in cheek, I took it) that I among others should not post because I use a pseudonym. I can only speak for myself but:
1 I have a unique name and my home address can be traced from it on google and
2 I hold a position where expression of political views would be embarrassing.
I don’t pay much attention to names, but more to the views expressed by the poster. I hope others would do the same with me.
25. ‘Faith’ schools are becoming a new hate-focus for the left it seems, a domestic enemy within to sit alongside the American-Zionist external menace.
The realities of what most of them actually are and do are irrelevant - it’s what the demented minds of the left think they represent that is crucial.
27 Well, I’m sure many, perhaps most, Labour members would like to legislate them out of existence, but there’d be an electoral price to pay.
Most faith schools in London reflect their local community. Certainly Sir John Cass, which is a CofE secondary school is 80% Muslim - and parents send their children to the school by choice. It is over subscribed and has some 100 appeals each year. Parents like the school because they are strong on discipline and it has a good accademic record - and an all important 6th form.
Ed Balls this morning seem to be more on the wavelength of insisting that Grammar Schools should reflect their local community.
If that became law, QE Boys school, would indeed change its ethnicity. Curently, this school, which is considered one of the best state schools in the country has a white population of less than 40%. It has a very large Asian and Chinese intake. Locally well over 80% of the population are white. Kids are bussed in for miles around, due to the lack of Grammar schools in London. So Ed Ball’s new policy in this instance would defeat what he is trying to do.
Sweeping statements, now has that not been said before today?
27. You could argue that they are a form of apartheid, or a continuation of the class system, or a kind of selection similar to grammars.
But most of them quite clearly aim to cherry pick the brightest students (perhaps not RC). There is high demand, so they can more easily pick the ‘best’ students and then, of course, the school does even better. And of course, then non-faith schools, having to take the poorer students, keep getting worse and worse.
It ain’t rocket science.
30. You could argue that, but it would be utter b*llocks.
31. Why?
27. 28. Obviously you two would know what “the left” thinks.
I’m more than happy for them to stay so long as they fulfill the role they’re supposed to.
26
I see no problem in using any tag rather than a real name. In these days of the Internet, I actually think its a good idea, but I am not enamoured of tags that pupport to be leaning towards one party when the truth is the exact opposite. ie like the Tory Troll….
30 - I can understand how a selective school cherry picks as they set an exam. But how do you account for schools that take a wide ability, remain a Faith School, take all faiths and still do well. How is that selecting only the best
13. Also wildly off thread. I recently heard a story about a teacher who appeared on the BBC’s Mastermind I think it was(apologies to non-brits - it’s a very upmarket TV quiz) and managed to score exactly zero points. For ever after, the poor man heard kids singing the qtheme tune whenever he came near.
… sorry, the quiz theme tune, that should say.
35 - They select the parents.
It looks like the chieckens are coming home to roost. The ‘immigration crisis’ is te central polic topic in Britain today. Labour is paying a dear price for its failure to get it under control.
Many acknowledge the scale of the ‘housing crisis’ facing Britain, where high prices have priced-out the young from the housing they need to create and house a family. Yet we fail to acknowledge how the ‘immigration cisis’ has caused the ‘housing crisis’. Now we know that immigration offers no net benefits to the UK, it is timeto get it nder control. Britain is full.
Brown’s failure to deliver promptly on the housing crisis, as he promised last summer, may be a factor in the further collapse in Labour’s support this year. What other explanation could there be that is credible?
The Conservatives were building 330,000 homes per year, every year, during the 1950’s. We are building only 130,000 per year now under Labour, despite the scale of the ‘immigration crisis’. 700,000 immigrants per year according to new NI numbers beig requested and issued.
The Conservatives need to pledge to build as many houses (not flats) as they did in the 1950’s, while promising to cut net immigration to zero. This is the only real solution for the housing crisis and the immigration crisis causing it.
(Conservatives will probably be helped by AV, as the London Mayor AV election wil prove in 4 weeks time). Under AV the Conservatives may get a much bigger majority.
Under FPTP, and without the above pledge, votes will so fracture as to prevent a Conservative majority. The Conservatives need to distance themselves from the enemies of housebuilding, if they want to form a government. We need to hear the pledge.
39. London Mayor is elected by SV, not AV, and is a vastly inferior system. SV has all the faults of FPTP combined with the quirks of AV, but none of its benefits..
Given the scale of the disatisfaction with Labour, they are going to be punished by PR, whether it is AV, SV, or any other form of PR. The huge bias in Labour’s favour under FPTP (remember Labour lost the popuar vote in England at the last general election, yet won far more seats under FPTP) will be ceded away.
24 I can only imagine that Ed Balls has not spend any time in the North West of England, especially Liverpool and Manchester, because the idea that the large number of Catholic comps there are disproportionately middle class is ridiculous.
41. I’m not convinced Labour necessarily has a huge advantage with FPTP. If the system was changed, people in safe labour areas may feel more of a reason to vote. i assume they would be more likely to vote Labour - though I suppose you can’t be sure.
For those, who haven’t seen, electoral-vote have electoral college maps based on recent polls, for Obama-McCain, and Clinton-McCain:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Apr06.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr06.html
Really shows quite how unpredictable the election will be: for example, they have Clinton picking up Florida and Ohio, as well as the key SW states NM and NV. However, she then loses in the two areas of obvious weakness for her compared to Obama: Michigan/Wisconson, and Washington/Oregon, as well as NH. The swing state that decides the presidency is then Tennessee! (which she polls incredibly well in, but Obama and McCain don’t).
Meanwhile, for Obama the overall electoral college score is about the same: he doesn’t pickup Florida, but is stronger in Colorado/Iowa, and much less challengeable in WA/OR/MI/WI etc. Most bizarrely of all, he’s ahead in North Dakota (??), and not far off in Nebraska (presumably for much of the same reasons as in Iowa, inc wrt ethanol issues). His campaign will be a little queasy about his figures in the NE though - obviously Pennsylvania is a must, but he’s not looking too hot in NJ or Mass either.
Of course you can argue with the methodology they use - it’s a little simplistic certainly - but good fun
I doubt the results under AV and SV would be particularly different under our current party system.
It is not a coincidence that the “constitutional package” put forward is for consideration of AV AND compulsory voting. Having candidates in single member constituencies elected being the 3rd or 4th choice of voters is a farce.
[39] Oh dear. Cut immigration to zero, while we remain in the EU?
If that’s what you want, you’d better join UKIP; at least, you will have signed up to ‘better off out’.
UKIP wants us to give notice to leave the EU. I assume the national socia1sts (currently called BNP) want to quit the EU. Similarly, the English democrats must want to leave. Some thinking members of the 3 main parties have (with varying degrees of reluctance) come to the conclusion that ‘we cannot reform the EU from within’.
We are classified as ‘Euro-loons’ by many of the chattering classes. Smile tolerantly when you are thus classified.
38 - What do you mean select the parents. Parents are not interviwed and nor are kids. VA schools are allowed to send a supplemary application form, where religion does play a part. But all schools unless they are selective must take an equal number from each banding. The only schools that are not fully comprehensive are selective schools or schools that are not full, as they tend to have more lower banded kids - as the places are allocated because they did not get the schools of their choice.
OT: Paul / Andrea. a bit obscure, but what is the SVP policy on south tirol these days. are they happy enough to be part of Italy with the current constitutional set up, or are they still aiming to become part of Austria. I remember years ago the Euro ice hockey championships were held in Bozen/Bolzano and the local crowd seemed to enjoy roundly booing the national team.
They select children who take a high interest in their children’s education
48 - I think (& Andrea will correct me if I’m wrong!) the SVP (not to be confused with the Swiss version!) aren’t seeking to join Austria & will work within the autonomy setup for Trentino-Alto Adige.
Certainly Austria is not seeking to enlarge the Tirol.
My eldest was the brightest kid in the class at primary [yes, I know how that sounds!?] and probably from one of the most middle class families in school. They were refused entry to the follow on secondary because it was over subscribed and my child was not of the ‘right’ faith. A lottery, yes. But not one based on the prejudices the lazy ususally subscribe to.
My child went on to a private school [and therefore effectively we pay twice]. Her classmate who struggled academically and whose dad was serving time for armed robbery was admitted without question.
The right outcome I think.
My eldest got a scholarship to private school. I say ’scholarship’ but it was a tiny/token fee reduction based on the entrance exam mark alone : the real reductions go in bursaries, based on low income. One child who got such a bursary is in my kid’s class is by no means the brightest ‘academically’.
[Of course, it means the parents are paying again [taxes, their fees and the subsidising of others].
Probably the right outcome again. But one Mr Balls would love to end.
Not that he mentioned that when he turned up to an event there a couple of years ago [some kids come from his constituency] saying what a great school it was …that he would like to abolish!
Can someone please give me an explanation as to why they think religious schools do better than average, if it is not about selection.
I can’t wait for these theories.
52 - Ethos and commitment. Success breeds success. A successful school will strive harder to maintain that position.
48. Tom Fairfax, I admit I’ve never heard a full electoral manifesto of the SVP, particularly because their website is 90% in German. However a brief search for their electoral manifesto for next weekend’s elections seem to be centered on a “more autonomy” for the Bozen area (on taxes, on immigration policies, transfer of resources from the Italian state to Bozen province and so on)
51. The bursaries exist so that these private companies, sorry schools, can maintain charitable status.
Obviously if you are not the correct faith, you will lose out. But if the choice is between two kids who both have the religious credentials, then most likely it will come down to background and the school’s expectations of the pupil improving their position in the league tables. All of which you might argue is perfectly fine. I just wish theat they’d be honest about it, rather than trying to deceive us all (most unchristian) into believeing that they succeed because of their particular ethos, teaching style, whatever.
54. Of course South Tyrol should return to Austria. It’s apportionment to Italy was an appalling violation of the principle of self-determination. And it’s not as if Italy deserved it on the basis of their opportunistic and incompetent record in WWI.
43. It does, in the sense that only Labour supporters who bother to vote should receive representation.
The following system would be possible. Let’s call it equal-vote-STV. Divide the country up into multi-member constituencies with number of seats based on the aggregated electorates. Proceed with the election exactly as normal STV (as in Ireland.)
Now the key difference. On the first count, the returning officer sends a tally of the votes (in other words the turnout) to a central computer. When all the tallys are in, the computer runs an algorithm which re-apportions the number of seats available to a constituency, based on it’s turnout.
e.g. Liverpool, electorate entitles it to 6 seats. Turnout, only 50%. The computer informs the Liverpool returning officer. “Sorry, your entitlement has been reduced to 5 seats. Proceed with the election on that basis….”
Surrey, electorate entitles it to 11 seats. Turnout is 70%. The computer informs the Surrey returning officer. “Congratulations, your entitlement has risen to 13 seats. Proceed with the election on that basis….”
The returning officers calculate the quotas based on the new entitlement, and proceed with the count as normal…
52. A higher degree of independence from local authority control and a very strong sense of identity, leadership and control over discipline.
52. They are very conservative institutions [with a small ‘c’]and are often reluctant to abandon old fashioned teaching methods and discipline]. In the past, some have received critism from OSTED because of this, but they are held in high enough esteem in the community to ride through it.
A Catholic school will have an input from the priest who is respected by the community and who is in turn,in touch with the kids and their parents.
The control is more local and responsive. If you are on the ‘outside’ and want to join in, its because you like what you you see and want to subscribe to it.
As always, its not about the kids, its about the parents. Without effort, they can maintain a majority who are on messsage and hold the line.
The faith element is a self perpetuating myth that has become reality. Middle class famillies think faith schools are better. So they make the effort they are renown for and attend church etc etc and generally show willing and then get into the faith school.
The presence of the middle classes drives up the exam results and it becomes self perpetuating. Something like that…
My children go to a faith school but then we are practicing christians and like the overt christian morality. A faith school is less likely to be staffed by NUT loonies. That said sport is very poorly done at the school.
52, Frank Booth,
The implication of your question seems to be that the only factor that would change the output of a school is selection (ie change the input). That the processing between the input and output is necessarily fixed and exactly equivalent from one school to the next.
If this is not so, could you suggest what - in your opinion - factors can affect performance other than selection?
47 - But schools cannot interview and dont, so how can you say that. Can you cite an example. Schools are not allowed to interview - period
43. It does, in the sense that only Labour supporters who bother to vote should receive representation.
I sometimes wonder Rod, if you misrepresent the purpose of our electoral system. An MP’s job is to elect all his constituents, not just those who have voted for them.
52 - Ethos certainly plays a role, but it is also true that VA schools tend to be more disciplined. OK not all kids are angels, but VA schools usually have a better pastral support system.
re 62 Steherts in new Labour fantasy land schools can’t interview, but in the real world they do. Just like in the NHS everyone is discharged from A&E within 4 hours - a huge number of them at 3hrs59min. It matters not where to, or whether they’re ever likely to recover, it just happens.
I work at a catholic high school; indeed I have always worked at catholic high schools. At both - one in Middlesex and now my one in Norwich - take huge numbers from the more deprived communities in the whole county. My school, which according to some is a “middle class comp”, has more statements that the real comp down the road and is perfectly OK to let our scores drop because we are happy to take in less academic pupils instead of picking and choosing. The faith and community elements does have an impact, though of course it is unmeasurable. I know I’m bias but this attack on faith schools - joined in by our pathetic unions - is wrongly directed class snobery from a government that wouldn’t know a decent education if it stuck a post-it on its back.
We have selection in education in this country - by mortgage value. Faith schools are such a minor issue in the debate
It is a complete myth that people want a “good local school”. People in poor housing areas know damn well their school will never be any good. They want their kids in good schools outside their area, but are not as mobile as the middle classes.
61. I don’t think it is the only thing that is relevant, but it is the most important factor. Of course the standard f teaching, pastoral care etc are important, but most of all it’s about what they start with.
I simply refuse to accept they succeed due to a supposed conservative morality. What’s that ever achieved?
Why do you think Tony Blair sent his kids half way across London to school instead of the local Islington Comprehensive.
Some C of E faith schools do now have an admission criteria that takes a percentage of children from other world faiths.
But at the end of the day, they have to take a wide ability intake.
There is a lot of talk about academies and not all of them are the shining beacon that the government might portray them as. They also have to take a wide ability intake. Some have tests, but not a pass or fail test, just one that decides which of 9 stages of learning they would fit into, and therefore this ensures that they take comprehensive intake.
65 Chris I dont live in New Labour’s fantasy land. I am speaking from experience in Inner London. Yes until a few years ago, VA schools did interview, but they cannot now. They can issue (and do issue) a supplementary form, which asks questions about faith. And they can ask for this to be followed up by a letter or form from their local vicar/priest.
The schools I know are not in middle class suburbs at all, but they do tend to have better results.
68,
OK. My feel is that increased independence from centralised control is also an important factor (enabling a school to tailor its teaching most appropriately).
Who is suggesting that “they succeed due to a supposed conservative morality“? I saw Sally C’s suggestion that they tend towards being conservative (small “c”) and tend to eschew abandonment of older methods in favour of the latest suggestions/fads/central directives (delete as appropriate), but that’s rather different.
FRANK BOOTH. Labour spin.
If private schools lost their chartiable status, they would be able to reclaim VAT. Most schools have done their sums and it would mean only a small increase in fees.
Of course they could save themselves that money by not offering bursaries or sharing facilities etc. In fact, some could save more.
Why do you think its never been done despite the fact that it was in the 1997 manefesto? Like fox hunting, it was a dog whistle to the traditionalists who hadn’t done their sums. They conned you mate.
We could of course get rid of them altogether and let the taxpayer pay for them instead. We have SO much money in the kitty.
The British private education system is the most successful education system in the world. How much sense does it make to destroy that in a global market?
The politics of fear and envy.
Let’s cut our left wing noses off to spite their right wing faces.
Produce the workforce.
Sell its services to foreigners.
Encourage it to engage with the state world.
Use its standards as a yard stick to beat the Government [of any colour with].
Unless you are a Luddite.
66 Ed Ball’s behaviour is exceptionally irritating because he went to a public school. According to his school’s website, the fees are circa 9000 pounds per annum.
He’s almost the last person in the world who is qualified to lecture the rest of us on access.
One explanation for faith schools doing better could be explained by the following model. If we make two assumptions
1. that 10% of children cause problems in schools and are responsible for bringing standards down and
2. that of this 10% half (5%) have parents who are less likely to care about there childrens education.
Then when parents have to make a positive decision to send their children to a faith school (as opposed to just going to the nearest) the split of these “trouble causing” children will be 7.5% to the non-faith and 2.5% to the faith school (assuming that their are two schools of equal size).
The point I was making [or trying to] about faith schools is that they have additional mechanisms maintaining links with the local community and parents, both formal and informal. Its often amounts to all sides feeling they are more powerful/respected. Its circular.
On voting systems: I sincerely doubt anything will be implemented before the next election. Too much fear of Lords rejection which would effectively, given the timeframe, veto the bill in this Parliament.
As others have said it’s a possibility in a Labour election manifesto, though, which *could* give Brown a better chance of wooing the Lib Dems in the event of a hung parliament.
I am still hugely unconvinced this could go through without a referendum anyway, though.
73. Whilst they may be able to reclaim VAT paid, they would be obliged to charge VAT on the fees charged. I would imagine that a fair proportion of the costs of the school would be payroll by nature, and would estimate the value of input tax recovered would be against c 50% of costs incurred whilst output tax would apply to all income. I don’t see how such a profile of income and costs would have just a marginal impact on a private school’s finances.
60. A faith school is less likely to be staffed by NUT loonies
Indeed, that alone should attract parents in droves. The NUT are pond life.
Sorry 77 refers to 72 not 73
72 - The problem with private schools is that they deprive the state sector of some of the most motivated and academically able pupils. Children in state schools would probably do better if they had these other children around them, and the private school pupils would get to see a broader spectrum of society. Private schools are much more detrimental to society than religious ones.
Er.. Italian elections anyone? Does berlusconi really have as good a chance as the betfair odds of 1.34 suggest?
74. I agree. There are forces [parents] at play that can help to keep the disruptive element down to managable levels.
Its a case of not reaching a critical mass.
A friend who teaches in a state school told me she much as she dislikes it, she has come down hard on some of the ‘good’ kids, because they can’t afford to reach a tipping point.
78. Having been a governor of a faith school for over 10 years I can assure you that NUT reps are well represented in such institutions.
The LSE suggests that better results are predominately down to selection:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/pressAndInformationOffice/newsAndEvents/archives/2006/FaithPrimarySchools.htm
Frank. Whilst you ‘imagine’, the accountants have done their sums.
In one school in York, it amounted to £200/£250 on fees of £11,000!
Its a school which is above average in its fees and doesn’t offer bursaries on income grounds.
My kids school fees are alot less than that and about 30/40% of kids have some subsidy. What effect would it have on me?
Sadly Frank is right
81 - well I think he does.
I think the polls have been fairly steady in the campaign (6-8 ahead).
Possibly a saver on Any Other in case Berlusconi falls short in the Senate.
Plus Silvio has big media advantage.
But would be interested to hear Andrea’s view if 1.34 is value.
80,
Strongly disagree.
Firstly, I don’t see “able children” as some kind of resource to be expended by the state.
Secondly, the idea that seeding a class with able pupils will act to improve the abilities of the other pupils seems slightly overoptimistic. From experience, having a large spread in abilities in one class detracts from the teaching: those at the lower end hesitate to ask questions that the most able would regard as “noddy” or answer questions for fear of being thought stupid. Pitching the teaching at the average level would be too fast for the less able (and once you feel left behind and miss out on basic building blocks, education becomes far more problematic) and too slow for the more able (boring them and making them resent the class). Bullying of “the swots” is also an issue. If the “more able” are to be educated in seperate classes, then the point would be moot in any case.
Thirdly, enabling private school pupils to “see a broader spectrum of society” can be achieved by assisting poorer children into private schools.
Fourthly, the education of the rather noticeable amount of private school children would have to be achieved by the state in the case of the abolition of private schools. This would require a fairly noticeable increase in spend by the Department of Education (or whatever they are called today) - and a concomitant increase in taxation, increase in borrowing or decrease in public spending elsewhere.
84 I don’t think it is very mysterious and twm at 74 surely has most of the answer.
Some parents (often middle-class, but by no means exclusively so) are very interested in the education of their children, some parents unfortunately are not. By their very nature, the former group are better represented in faith schools, for exactly the reason that twm says. Hence, faith schools do somewhat better.
Even if you get rid of faith schools, there is still a fundamental inequality that some parents are interetsted in their child’s education, and some are not. In whatever educational system you care to chose, the former children will tend to do better than the latter.
87. “I think the polls have been fairly steady in the campaign (6-8 ahead).”
yes, the polls 1 week ago were all in the 5-10 range. So if they get it wrong, they will get it wrong all together.
Mind you last time they almost all got it wrong together..aside one (the usually pro Silvio one..but this time they are not giving a result much difference from the others)
72. I was a good kid at a cr*p comprehensive [really really cr*p]. My presence there helped noone, least of all me.
As far a social mix goes, you have a point.
My kids school is in the same town as my old school. Its amazing how many of those who ‘made it out’, do not, despite their own humble beginnings, see that as reason enough to send their kids.
Not that my poor school counted against me. On the contrary, I acquired professional qualifictions and got a good job, where the interviewer said, ‘Good God, you did well to come out of their alive, let alone with an education’ [there was a student on student murder and alot of other violence, glue sniffing etc].
I got the job. I did OK. Many didn’t and the idea my presence there was of any benefit to anyone else, is theoritcal and unfounded.
On from 91. Professional qualifications that didn’t involve spelling, typing or proof reading, obviously.
85. I am an accountant, but with imagination!
Under current arrangements, a cost base of £1m requires fees of £1m.
If VAT is recoverable against 50% of costs, then the cost base falls to £925,000, but to generate that net income the school needs to apply VAT to this figure, which would take the revenue requirement to c£1,090,000, 9% rise in anyone’s money, with £161,000 going to Mr Darling.
88 - It is undoubtedly a controversial view but IMO the state should set education policy in the interests of the community. That means that there will be ‘winners’ and ‘losers’.
I didn’t say that classes should have a wide ability range but schools should. Setting can be used in subjects where it is needed. The comprehensive I went to for example setted pupils for Maths and French but didn’t for Music. This has the advantage of allowing children to move up and down sets as they grow. Also there was more setting higher up the school. Good teachers though have the ability to manage a class with a range of abilities within a certain threshold. In any case private school pupils are not necessarily the most intelligent by any means. Motivation and parental involvement are often more important to success than this.
Assisted places children would be a small minority, state schools reflect society in a way private schools never could.
If all parents had a stake in the state system they would have much greater incentive to ensure they were good. This would mean an influx of talent onto governing bodies and more voluntary donations. Also more tax would be generated as parents would spend the money on extra goods. The increase in spending would not be dramatic (about 10%) and would be worth it for producing a better overall system, where life chances are less determined by parental income.
91 - In a school as bad as that one person won’t make a difference of course. But don’t you see that if a good majority of the school (say 50-60%) were like you the school would have been better, teacher morale would be up etc. That would have given children who were failing a better example to follow. And of course some people do incredibly well and make it out of bad schools but the majority don’t.
89,Gwynfa excellent post, its as straight forward as you have written it.
“I am an accountant, but with imagination.”
Like a Caring Conservative or a Labour MP who gives a t*ss about the poor, or an American President who thinks about the Iraqis perhaps.
Kieran, have you thought through the philosophical implications of what you are saying? Private schools cream off “the best” pupils? So basically the children of rich people are more intelligent than the children of poor people? Think what such an argument means for a leftist worldview.
93. I am not an accountant, but I guess the ones who reported to the schools have done their sums. I am sure they will have submitted a bill!
A similar case was made in The Times.
You can throw all the money you like at it, (as this lot have) it won’t make state schools any better. Why is it that private run things, including schools, are more likely to succeed and state run anything doesn’t?
98 - ‘The best’ could easily mean those most likely to succeed, which factors in a great deal more than just intelligence (stable home life, educated parents, books in the house etc).
If the students with those advantages are sectioned away in private schools, it has a detrimental effect on all the students unable to join them.
98 - I think I make clear at 94 that it is the motivation, involvement and interest shown (on average of course, this is a gross generalisation and there are plenty of exceptions) in pupils that go to private schools that make them a loss to the state sector. Plus these schools can regulate their intake academically. So no the children of rich people are not more intelligent than the children of poor people. But on average they receive a lot more attention.
100. Yes. The key is not ‘private’ but ‘independent’.
100 - Yes railtrack was a great example of that.
100 - Like railways? Or the military?
There is no reason that the State can’t run things well, just that poor performance is not punished as quickly as in the private sector. Address that, and there is no reason why the State couldn’t run things equally well (and the Private sector is not as well-run in many cases as you might think!)
103 - I support much greater independence for all schools on everything apart from pay and admissions.
I think detailed policy discussions on education, or anything else, is not the point of this site!
100. Heathrow Terminal 5
Bring back Mussolini, who said “it’s not hard to govern Italy; just pointless”
94, There we disagree then. I don’t see that deliberately sacrificing children in the name of a theory that “if they all go to the same place, everyone will improve” is at all desirable. It’s also against every human instinct to accept that one’s own children should be required to sacrifice their best opportunities in order that they will be available as resources for others.
How does having the “more able and motivated” students in the school (but seperated in classes) assist? And is there not at least an equal chance of reducing the attainment of those “more able” students without an appreciable increase in that of the “less able”? Just because “the swots” have their own class/set doesn’t mean that there will be no bullying.
“In any case private school pupils are not necessarily the most intelligent by any means. Motivation and parental involvement are often more important to success than this.” Very true. How does forcing them into the state sector improve the motivation and parental involvement of those in the state sector who lacked these to start with? Why would Mr and Mrs Uninvolved start actively taking an interest in their child’s education merely because Mr and Mrs Snob do so? Why would Miss Uninvolved suddenly become more motivated because Miss Snob now is in her year (but not her class)? Or would she simply resent her? Would Miss Snob’s motivation simply diminish to match Miss Uninvolved’s? In which case we’ve now reached a worst-case solution.
“If all parents had a stake in the state system they would have much greater incentive to ensure they were good. This would mean an influx of talent onto governing bodies and more voluntary donations. Also more tax would be generated as parents would spend the money on extra goods. The increase in spending would not be dramatic (about 10%) and would be worth it for producing a better overall system, where life chances are less determined by parental income.”
Or simply an increase in private tuition out of hours. Quicker, simpler and cheaper. If governors lack real decisive power over the school, why join the governing board? If you can get Miss Snob a real benefit by dropping £5k per year on a tutor for Saturdays, no need to make a charitable donation.
Why would more tax be generated by the parents saving the money? This assumes that the private schools don’t spend the money. It also glosses over the increase in spending needed by the state sector to pick up the load.
96.You are right, Gwynfa hits on the nail.
“Even if you get rid of faith schools, there is still a fundamental inequality that some parents are interetsted in their child’s education, and some are not. In whatever educational system you care to chose, the former children will tend to do better than the latter.”
It’s that simple.
106,
Kieran - there we are finding much more common ground!
108-Presumably that is an indication that private ownership does not work. Alternatively that a private enterprise heavily regulated by the state does not work, ergo it might as well be a state enterprise.
110. What the economist says about that:
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=526356&story_id=10854937
Bribe the parents!
109 - I don’t argue that a fully comprehensive system would be ideal and solve all the problems in society. However it would be an improvement on the status quo. You miss my point about setting. Some subjects will be setted others won’t be. Children aren’t universally clever so will be in higher sets for some subjects than others. But there will be classes that won’t be setted (at least for KS3). There will also be form groups that are mixed, plus time outside the classroom and sports activities.
My point is simple. If children are in a home and school environment where expectations are low, there is no motivation to succeed and nobody you come into contact with values learning then it is unsurprising they don’t succeed. We can’t do much directly about the home situation but we can with the school. If children spend time with others who have aspirations and different interests they are more likely to succeed. Gwynfa is right in that there will still be inequality but in this scenario it is reduced. There is a chance as you suggest of children being led down the wrong path but this can be prevented by parental involvement. In any case we can’t know if it would be better or not until it is implemented.
Yes parents may get their kids private tuition but they will still want the school to be a decent standard. If you believe the system is better as I do then the extra spending is justified. Of course you could simply tax the wealthy a bit more to make the difference.
Finally of course parents want what is best for their kids, that is why choice in education is problematic (although it has positive effects as well) in that it increases segregation. The individual interest clashes with the collective, and IMO the collective should take priority.
113,
Incentives matter!
Moreover, incentives matter most at the margins (the poorest who couldn’t afford things before and now could).
Plus - that really decreases the “bully power” of those who resent the swots. Instead, many would look to join them.
I really like that initiative.
115. Me too Andy.
I’ve seen it working well already with the much maligned EMA.
109. It seems astonishing that after 30-odd years in which the comprehensive system has proved itself a dismal failure, there are people coming on here arguing that the only problem is that it is somehow not ‘comprehensive enough’, and arguing for all kinds of heavy handed and frankly repressive measures to make it so.
This is the kind of reasoning associated with the former communist states of central and eastern Europe, or the wilder excesses of the French Revolution. In fact, it is the very opposite of ‘reasoning’.
Kieran, given our disagreements, how about a suggestion on something we agree on and the initiative that G found:
1 - More school independence
2 - The Bribery Initiative (which provides real motivation that we can’t really argue about :), measured rather than theoretical/ideological)
I’d favour an independence route such as that of Sweden or Denmark (all schools independent with vouchers for the children). We could then argue over allowing “top ups” and increased voucher value of SEN children.
And not to forget the bribery
117 - The problem is that we haven’t ever had a comprehensive system given private schools and social selection. Within the comprehensive system there are vast differences between schools in terms of the social and academic composition of their intakes. That is hardly ‘comprehensive’.
118 - No problem with 1 and 2. But I’m afraid we can’t agree on vouchers. The problem is that this can lead to schools choosing parents rather than vice versa, and the inequalities I’ve been taling about. As I said more independence but not over admissions and pay.
And thanks for the intelligent debate. Good to see people can disagree without throwing insults at each other or communicating at the level of the school playground.
Zim: After the High Court stand off yesterday, the MDC lawyers presented their petition to the court unopposed by the Police this afternoon, and the Court has promised a ruling tomorrow. Zanu-PF are demanding a re-count, even before the results have been released, which suggests that despite all the rigging, even the official ZEC numbers will still show Tsvangirai ahead by a big enough margin to avoid a run-off. Tension in Harare is said to have lifted a bit- the feeling reported from the MDC negotiators is that most of Zanu-PF does not want the violence that Mugabe is prepared to unleash, and that several of the cronies think that this is their last chance. The release of the numbers will be critical, but a couple of senior MDC are talking now about how to fix the economic disaster after the elections…
121, The vouchers route seems to work well in practice in Sweden and Denmark, mind you. But I’ll settle for 1 and 2 for now.
On the debate front - you’re more than welcome, and right back at you.
And now, still jet lagged (got back from a long-haul flight yesterday), I’ve got to go to bed. G’night.
122 - for 121 read 120. Or, dependent on moderated posts moving things around the queue - Kieran’s last post above. And now I’ve really got to go.
119. Yes - the rulers of the GDR and other places used to similarly argue that there had never been ‘real socialism’. Achieving your ‘perfect’ (sic) system would require a degree of coercion incompatible with a free society.
ewr agree completely. how many more times does socialism have to fail before the idiots get the joke?
44 Andrew
My state ND has rarely voted Democrat in a presidential election but it has two Dem Senators and Earl Pomeroy its only House member is a Dem.
Additionally Senator Obama is very popular in the state. He seems to do well with certain kinds of small farm populations.
Malcolm
124 - Facile comparisons to the GDR are intellectually lazy. If you have a case make it. A comprehensive system would be compatible with a free society, it could be sold under the idea of fairness and it would ensure a decent education for everyone. The problem is that the transition would be