Are there too many oldies in the YouGov Ken polls?
April 7th, 2008
Peter Kellner admits “error” in the pollster’s weighting system?
Last week while I was on holiday in France Adam Boulton’s blog carried a piece suggesting that YouGov’s London samples included too many older voters, who traditionally are more inclined to vote Conservative. He suggested that if the weightings had been in line with official population statistics then Boris would have had a lead of 6% - not the 10% found in the latest survey.
So is there something in the Boulton suggestion and should not that be affecting the betting?
Below are the age weightings as they have appeared on YouGov’s data pages. The first is from the end December 2007 survey which had Ken one point ahead. The second is from the end February survey which had Boris 5% clear. Then there are the two March surveys where the Johnson leads were 12% and 10% respectively.
Just look at the numbers ringed in red on the graphic and see how the weighted proportion of over-55s has changed. The figures to notice are the weighted ones - those in bold and the overall samples.
I make it that in December the over 55s represented just over 22%. In the later surveys this has been at 38%
I put this to YouGov’s Peter Kellner. This was his response:-
Mike
An error crept into our weighting system. We have gone back to first principles and recalibrated our London demographic weights according to the latest official data. The over 55s in our remaining polls will be weighted to 28%.
We have also reviewed our weighting policy regarding BME electors. These will be weighted to 26% - their proportion in the 2001 census. (Incidentally, on this point, I have seen the figure for BME Londoners stated to be 29%. This is true of the total population, but because of the different age distribution, analysis of ONS data shows that the figure is around 40% of under 18s, and 26% among those aged 18+.)
We re-ran our last poll using the new weights for age and BME electors; it made no material difference to the overall results. This is because the party ID weights remain unchanged; it would take quite large differences in the loyalty and defection rates among different demographic groups to make a significant difference to the overall weighted results.
To my mind, the key fact in this campaign so far is that around one-in-five people who “generally speaking” think of themselves as Labour say they would vote for Boris Johnson. If Livingstone can get most of this group to return to the fold (plus do better on second preferences), he might still win; if he can’t, he loses.
Regards
Peter
Peter’s final point relates to YouGov’s standard practice of weighting samples in line with “party ID” to ensure that they are politically representative. ICM, Populus and ComRes do this by asking respondents if and how they voted at the last general election. The samples for YouGov surveys come from their “polling panel” on whom they have a lot of data already including responses to the question of which party members most identify with.
I have highlighted what those identifying themselves as Labour say they will do on May 1st. Only two thirds plan to support Ken; between a fifth and a quarter said Boris with 7% saying Paddick. The nearest comparative figures from last week’s ICM poll based on how people voted at the last general election broadly support the YouGov trend.
It’s clear that Ken is having trouble retaining London Labour voters from the general election which is why he is involved the biggest fight of his life.
In the betting the Ken price is 1.72/1. Boris is the 0.51/1 favourite.
MessageSpace Advertising
Question: in general, are older people more likely to vote than younger people in the UK? And especially as the turnout level declines? For what it’s worth, both are true in the US.
re 1. SSI. That is certainly the case in the UK. Thus in the ICM mayoral poll 50% of the over 65s said they were “certain to vote” compared with just 17% of the 18-24s.
The oldies are critical in elections and for whatever reason you are more likely to favour the Tories as you advance in years.
What’s all this nonsense about Huhne being the “real” winner of the Lib Dem leadership election, on the basis of late postal votes? Why don’t some journalists understand the concept of a deadline for postal votes? So what if they got lost or delayed for two weeks in the Christmas post? The deadline is when they arrive, not when they are posted.
re 3. Agreed John. But you would have thought that a party with only a modicum of commons sense would have not arranged a postal ballot so that the closing date was only days before Christmas? Maybe that’s too much to expect of the Lib Dems? Chris Huhne lost because of the delays in the postal system.
Thought this quote from the Telegraph’s report on the Olympic torch relay (by Richard Edwards, their Crime Correspondent) might help brighten your otherwise dull, grey Monday morning lives:
“The Chinese ambassador to Britain was forced into an unscheduled change to the location of her leg .. “
4. you would have thought that a party with only a modicum of commons sense would have not arranged a postal ballot so that the closing date was only days before Christmas
Of course; but the Lib Dems are not such a party, are they?
now that really is good news- 20% Lab voting for Boris. Leavingsoon is gone.
nd for whatever reason you are more likely to favour the Tories as you advance in years.
Maturity old chap
7 - I think the intriguing thing is the third column, Paddick is behind Boris on first preferences amongst Lib Dems!! That is atrocious. I wonder what the similar breakdown was last time round?
(From previous thread - Double Carpet, Paul, thought yesterday’s Italian article was great, but had no insights myself so lurked furtively. I did muse with Andrea whether El Windy was Italian, and hope he/she will post again. Anyway, many thanks)
9,
Last time, according to Dunleavy, Margetts and van Heerde, Hughes got 64% of LD first preferences to 17% for Livinston, 4% for Norris, 6% for others and 9% for none (ie voted in Assembly/European election but refrained from casting a ballot for Mayor).
OT - have posted on old thread about the LSE report on Faith/secular schools (primarily aimed at G); didn’t want to take this thread too OT too early.
9. What is also interesting about that figure is that Lib Dems have almost twice as much support for the Tory candidate as for the Labour one.
Obviously, the London mayoral election is a bit of a special case with such a large amount of focus on the candidates, and indeed, the the two main candidates are not short of charisma which lessens party loyalty still further. Even so, there must be at least some indication of the national picture here, if only in the way Lib Dems might vote if the tactical considerations are right (or wrong, if you’re a Labour supporter).
Ken has been in power for eight years - not far off the tenure of the Labour Party in government nationally - and while Boris isn’t exactly Cameron and London isn’t a microcosm of the nation at large, it’s not impossible to see parallels. If a tactical voting unwind takes place on anything like the scale that this poll suggests will be the case for the London mayorality, it really will mean that an overall majority is a distinct possibility for the Conservatives at the next election.
12 - it’s not that surprising though. If you look at everything that has happened nationally over the last several years, the only real reasons for LibDems supporting Lab over the Conservatives is the belief in the underlying evilness of the latter.
Because on many of the policy issues dearest to Liberal hearts, they have been on the same side as the Conservatives. And where they theoretically remain closer to Labour eg. on issues like Europe, it hasn’t been worth much.
I wonder…. I have been greatly struck by the mean-mindedness and sporadic viciousness of some Tory remarks recently. I am told that CF trains them in this way: nothing matters to them except winning.
Very destructive of social cohesion though.
Are Labour people as nasty as this?
I ask, because where I am, Labour people are all very pleasant.
9. But I thought Paddick was going to ‘come through the middle’?
Any comments from the candidates regarding the Olympic Torch fiasco in London yesterday??
Broon has really set himself up for a fall on this one. All an interviewer needs to ask him (or Jowell for that matter) is why did you not hold the torch, or, if the torch had been handed to you, would you have held it?
Just watch him squirm then…
BME ?
Black Minority Ethnic
Broon’s stance on the Olympics makes me furious and the only hope is that Nick Clegg with crank up the pressure on NuLabour.
It smacks of 1936 Germany ,sorry to say,and I am off before I blow my top at the way Gord has mismanaged this.
For two weeks in August 1936, Adolf Hitler’s Nazi dictatorship camouflaged its racist, militaristic character while hosting the Summer Olympics. Minimizing its antisemitic agenda and plans for territorial expansion, the regime exploited the Games to impress many foreign spectators and journalists with an image of a peaceful, tolerant Germany. Having rejected a proposed boycott of the 1936 Olympics, the United States and other western democracies missed the opportunity to take a stand that contemporary observers claimed might have restrained Hitler and bolstered international resistance to Nazi tyranny. After the Olympics, Germany’s expansionism and the persecution of Jews and other “enemies of the state” accelerated, culminating in World War II and the Holocaust
16. I found the footage of the Torch protests on News at Ten last night thoroughly entertaining - I laughed and cheered all the way through. A great effort by the protestors in exposing the ugliness of totalitarian China. As for Brown’s involvement, well…
Tressage I apologize if you feel Tories are being harsh. I dont think paddock behind in LDs means he’s been atrocious at all, rather that sophisticated LD voters want Ken out and will vote tactically.
I didn’t see the news coverage on the TV, but the photos in the paper this morning make me wonder who the blue tracksuited goons were. What was theur status? What authority did they have to be there? Were the Met answering to them, or vice versa?
22. ‘Sir’ Ian was no doubt under instructions…
Ken Livingstone might be trying to shoot the messenger with complaints about polling bias but his campaign seems to have got the message about losing the Lib Dems - trying to agree a second preference pact with them
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-asks-for-lib-dem-help-to-beat-johnson-805391.html
OT. I’ve just started missing Blair. I thought it would never happen. Browns desperation to lead was nothing but ambition over aptitude. Not since 1997 have we seen such leaderless drift.
We might not know what Cameron stands for but neither do we with Brown. He’s an excellent Chancellor who can’t lead.
Why does everyone want to direct?
Test (21) - it is nice to see you back in circulation here.
I was not thinking so much of “harshness”, and I was not thinking in particular of the London election, or of the way its peculiar voting system distorts the real preferences of the electors.
But I have been very unfavourably impressed by the sustained campaign of distortion and innuendo which some Tory posters have gone in for, both on this site and elsewhere. Presumably they are very young and cannot understand what they are doing. I attribute it to the vicious foreign influences that the Tories have brought in to direct their campaigns.
It goes without saying, Test, that I continue to meet a large number of perfectly charming Conservatives, who always have been there. I have also met a large number of people who are uncertain at this stage whether they will vote Conservative next time, or Liberal Democrat. Tribally, they have been Conservatives.
21. I think the London Lib Dems need to educate their supporters in how the SV system works. A first vote for Paddick and a second vote for Johnson will still ‘get Ken out’.
First, on the Olympics thing. Are these protestors calling for a trade boycott of China? (If the Chinese ambassador’s reading this, I suggest she might care to fax back to Beijing Gareth Pierce’s article in the current London Review of Books and suggest the Party organises a demonstration calling for the U.K. to be banned from the Games - the cases seem pretty comparable to me.)
Back on-thread: IIRC Londoners vote for the Mayor and the Assembly on separate ballot papers. This may limit Boris’s ability to get more Tories elected on his “coat tails” - expect his campaign to focus on the Assembly during the last 10 days or so.
On the age thing - it’s strange that an internet pollster should have more pensioner respondents: my guess would be that there’s also an over-representation of ABC1s in there. I’m also surprised they take so small a sample - the additional cost of doubling it can’t be that great, surely.
26.Its all about perception isn’t it? Looking on from afar, I would say that supporters of Ken’s campaign have been the only culprits to stick out as being nasty, negative and resorting to distortion and innuendo. I also think they are very aware of what they are doing.
19. One of the stupidest posts I’ve read on here.
Would all those who want to punish China start boycotting shops which sell Chinese goods (all of them) picket all businesses that deal with China and finally stop using anything made in that country.
Otherwise shut up!
26. A post almost beyond caricature. Indeed, the hilarious ‘vicious foreign influences’ remark makes you sound like a propagandist for the Chinese dictatorship. Not after a job with them, are you?
24. He is missing the point on so many levels.
The Lib Dem leadership cannot ‘tell’ their voters how to vote, and if they try and go against the mood - which is clear from the poll figures above - all that will happen is that they will suffer. Ken is trying to generate an anti-Boris campaign; that is the wrong strategy - he needs a pro-Ken campaign. That is what won him the office in the first place and kept him there in 2004.
Even if he did get the strategy right and it won him the elections, will it help the Lib Dems get electoral reform? What are the linkages? What influence does Ken have with the Labour leadership? It’s all pretty tenuous - and it wouldn’t be the first time the Lib Dems have been let down with hints, or more, of this nature.
Ken is still working in a mindset of the 80s and 90s of ‘nasty Tories’ and tactical anti-Tory voting. The world has moved on and if he doesn’t move with it he will be left behind.
25- Roger- I do not miss Blair one bit. He had gone well past his sell by date. One more “I believe” was one too many, especially when talking about Iraq. Remember Lebanon, and his unflinching neo-conservatism.
What Blair failed to do was to set up genuine leadership contest with 4-5 strong candidates.
Brown lost it for me in that 3 weeks of madness last autumn- the Iraq stunt, the election that never was, the IHT proposals, the blatant lying to journlists, his wittering on about his vision. I knew then that all the worst things people had been saying about Brown were indeed true, and he would drift from bad to worse.
It is a shame because as chancellor, his work in overseas development, the silent redistribution of taxes- he would have had a great reputation. Gordon has blown his legacy in showing what a disastrous, incompetent leader he is.
Ambition and calculation can be positive characteristics if you have the personal qualities in other ways to back them up. Gordon is a poor leader, and is out of touch. These are two traits that will lead the Labour party into electoral disaster.
If I may blow my own trumpet a little: I did actually point out several weeks ago that I hoped YouGov had weighted properly using London’s demographic data, which as we know differs greatly from GB/UK as a whole.
O/T
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Salmond-back-from-US-with.3953017.jp
Back on thread- I have reversed most all my Boris position on Saturday, and switched to Ken where I think there is some value.
I do not know who is going to win this contest, but I am sure that the race will tighten from here on in.
Not at all, EWR (31). I don’t think anybody has suggested that the Conservative Party has come under the influence of the Chinese.
But very certainly under the undesirable influence of certain Americans.
An insight into how a significant section of the Scottish Conservative Party are thinking? Or the pompous ramblings of a pubescent student politician struggling to grow enough stubble to shave each morning?
“Victory for Tories ‘will put an end to Union’” -
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Victory-for-Tories-39will-put.3952486.jp
32. True, ken thinks that in general londoners like him and dislike the tories. That they don’t like Boris just want him out. I think this is wrong. The tories over the last couple of years have become a much more approachable party, shedding most of the nasty image. Boris is seen as a bit of a bumbler but in general ok, not the nasty right winger labour and Ken have been trying to make him out to be.
Isn’t this all hugely embarrassing for YouGov? What a cock up!
30.
Take it easy Roger.
Put in a political perspective it takes their French counterparts to show Gord and Ken how to act.
The mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoe, has also said he plans to unfurl a giant banner over city hall saying: “Paris defends human rights everywhere in the world”.
Last month, President Nicolas Sarkozy also left open the possibility of boycotting the Olympic Games’ opening ceremony in Beijing on 8 August.
Over to you Gord,if you are capable of making a decision without fear of offending the Chinese.
33. Tyson. Thanks for reminding me about Lebanon and Iraq. It’s surprising how quickly you forget…..There was a time when you knew that Labour would always be looking for the moral high ground while the Conservatives would proudly stand in the mud at the bottom. I still think Labour’s heart’s in the right place but if they don’t start showing it soon they are going to lose to a party whose heart definately isn’t.
Mike, why are you posing as Ken?
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/1482/
40. the problem with your post NN is the bit where you say “,if you are capable of making a decision”
We all know Gordo isnt..time for anoither review…
JohnO. Very good!
Perhaps you could enlighten us on your position on China, Roger? In the past you have struck strong anti-apartheid poses, condemning those with a different view as racists/fascists etc.
China has been conducting a grotesque, race-based campaign of colonisation and repression in Tibet for the best part of fifty years. Don’t you think China also deserves to be punished by the international community, at the very least in the form of a sporting boycott? If not, why not?
“This is what a feminst looks like”. No wonder so many men are physically put off feminists. Yuk!
This is a potential vote winner if Boris would only use it!
Repair London’s streets and have police on roller blades,it’s great!
It concerns the protests planned for Paris
The French are planning a security cordon around the flame that will be much better organised with 65 motorcycle outriders, 100 gendarmerie on roller blades and a phalanx of riot police following behind.
It did cross my mind that it is not possible to have roller bladed policemen on London’s streets. They’re too bumpy.
The three mothers of his children apparently take turns to cook Sunday lunch.
Surely a charge under the Trades Description Act would have a good chance of success!
The Scottish National Party hold the trump card in UK politics, because we know that their is only one valid answer to the increasingly prominent West Lothian Question: the dissolution of the Union.
“Scottish MPs voting on English matters is “totally outrageous”, Scotland’s First Minister said yesterday.”
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/574176
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Lothian_question
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/82358.stm
48 - only if anyone actually buys it….
49. No, there are two other valid answers to the West Lothian question:
1) an English parliament;
2) proportional representation for Westminster (WL is only an issue because a 40% Labour vote in Scotland/Wales gives them 80% of the seats)
45. Some countries make feeding their population their number one priority others prefer to count their success by the numbers of multi billionaires or nuclear weapons they have. While half the world go to bed hungry it’s not whether or not China are stamping on Tibets human rights that I’m oblivious to but that we should consider our Western priorities more valid.
2,It`s when you start to have memory problems and everything was better in your day.
51 - scrapping Holyrood neatly solves WLQ.
Yes, this “feminist” championed the extremist Muslim preacher who said female circumcision “wasn’t compulsory”
Please Note: Labour ministers and MPs have been banned from referring to Boris Johnson, the Tory candidate for London mayor, by his first name, it emerged yesterday.
Tessa Jowell, (aka Tessa Jane Helen Douglas Palmer, aka Mrs Roger Jowell, aka Mrs David Mills) the Minister running Labour’s mayoral campaign in London, fears the widespread tendency to refer simply to “Boris” makes the Conservative contender appear too accessible and friendly.
She has instituted a “swear box”, threatening to fine colleagues who do not refer either to “Boris Johnson” or to “the Conservative candidate”.
Hope she doesn’t read PB.com - there would be eleven tickets already.
51 Your option 2 doesn’t address WLQ - which is that Scots MPs vote on matters they are not responsible for to their electors. Gordon Brown declares his priorities are Education & Health - if so he should stand as an MSP if he wants to decide how those are delivered to his constituents.
Roger 25. Not quite right - Brown was a lucky Chancellor who also cannot lead. Unfortunately for the Labour party ,they believed his claims to competence. When has tax and spend been a sucessful policy? The party seems to have collective amnesia - very dangerous for the rest of us.
Hmmm Tories taking the high gound over China: Ted Heath was pretty keen on the place I seem to remember. Then there was Hong kong, when the lease ran out, why didn’t we have a referendum, ask the people there if they wanted to be part of China, bet I can guess what the answer would have been!
The truth is a simple truth, no British government is going to upset the Chinese, any more than they will upset those other charmers, the government of Saudi Arabia.
There’s an ol’ proverb ‘A dog with a bone in its mouth, will find it difficult to bark’
John O - many thanks, glad you liked it. So when can we expect an article on the Democratic Republic of Cobham?
565 See from today’s Independent that Alexander Boris Johnson’s family are already in line with Labour advice - they call him Al. What is it with politicians and their first names? James Brown is called Gordon, Gideon decided to be George Osborne,
59. A referendum? The lease had run out, your acting like we had a legal leg to stand on. Without the mainland part of hong kong the rest is worthless, and we knew it. It was far better we handed hong kong over in tact for the sake of the inhabitants besides anything else.
52. An incomprehensible, blustering response. Do you condemn China’s actions in Tibet? Why don’t those actions deserve the same response you thought so justified in the case of apartheid South Africa?
This mornings front pages make grim reading for the Government, although there is some amusement to be had.
As I stopped off to pick up the papers this morning, the street vendor handing out each paper to the queuing throng shouted “Read all about it, PM can’t organise a p**s up in a brewery”
His views on the mayoral candidate are unknown however !
62
Nonsense, we should have held the referendum, when the people voted to remain with the UK, we should have parked a Polaris submarine of the Chinese coast and told the Chinese government, that if they moved onto Hong Kong, It would be, Frying Tonight.’
49 Stuart very true and the quicker the Unionist realise it the better.
I just wish the SNP would not be so timid over the monarchy.
Get an elected head of state at the same time as the Australian Labor party.
And bring the outdated concept of born to rule to an end at the beginning of the 21st century.
re 3. Agreed John. But you would have thought that a party with only a modicum of commons sense would have not arranged a postal ballot so that the closing date was only days before Christmas? Maybe that’s too much to expect of the Lib Dems? Chris Huhne lost because of the delays in the postal system.
by Mike Smithson April 7th, 2008 at 3:51 am
I think lack of sleep is getting to you Mike.
Firstly the timetable for leadership elections is preset in the constitution and it was the timing of Ming’s resignation that determined the closing date.
Secondly, despite frenzied speculation by the Sindy, their article admits the late votes were not counted, so there is no evidence Huhne would have won if they were counted.
Thirdly, given there were reportedly 1,300 late ballots, Huhne would have needed 950 of these to overturn the declared majority. That’s more than 73%. There is no evidence, despite the late swing to him he was polling these sort of figures.
Fourthly, Huhne wasn’t prepared to be quoted on the article - which kind of suggests his attitude towards it.
Fifthly, Huhne won’t appeal because Clegg won fair and square by the rules (and indeed any rules).
65 – I see you are a follower of the Tony Blair school of diplomacy.
45
China’s treatment of Tibet is intolerbale.
An invaision by force and an occupying army: reminds me of .. Iraq.
The UK cannot lecture the Chinese on international mores after Iraq.
69 even intolerable
The Conservatives and their business friends going to do anything about China different to New Labour.
If you think that, you are losing your memory,or your brain has been severley effected by 11 years of opposition.
You can never have ‘too many oldies’ !!!!!!!!
Jack W is 105.
68
Quite right, after all whats the point in having nuclear weapons if you can’t use ‘em? These whinging leftie liberals like cuddles they make me sick.
54. SBS - “scrapping Holyrood neatly solves WLQ”
No it doesn’t. But scrapping Holyrood, the Senedd and Stormont neatly solves WLQ. But that is not quite the same thing is it?
SBS, can you ever see Stormont being abolished? Peacably? No, I did not think so either.
66 - but I suspect the SNP is too fragile a coalition to have a proper debate on the future of the monarchy.
Should Scotland achieve independence, I would expect the SNP to fragment, and then such a debate may begin.
The Sun’s influential political editor, Trevor Kavanagh, puts a steel toe-capped boot into Brown again in today’s paper:
HAS Gordon Brown declared war on his own voters?
That’s how it looks to low earners and hard-working families as they struggle with the fallout from his 11 years at the top…..
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kavanagh/article686412.ece
74 - Stuart, my comment about scrapping Holyrood was not intended to be taken seriously. I would certainly not want Holyrood to be scrapped.
I am not a fan of Scottish independence particularly, but I agree that it is the only solution to the WLQ that I can think of.
51. Alan J
Alan, are the Liberal Democrats now supporting the establishment of a devolved English Parliament? With powers equal to those of the Scottish Parliament (soon to be the Scottish Parliament Plus if the Lib-Lab-Cob Constitutional Commission get their way)?
Cos you see I always thought that the Lib Dems wanted to simply partition England in to “regions”. Divide and Rule old chap, Divide and Rule. Ra Ra the Scottish Raj!!
78. typo - Lib-Lab-Con Constitutional Commission
“Fourthly, Huhne wasn’t prepared to be quoted on the article - which kind of suggests his attitude towards it.”
Not at all, Dan - that article was quite obviously briefed by Huhne and he simply didn’t want open warfare. He does however want muttering.
76
Funny everyone loves the 10p starting rate: now!!
It wasn’t always the case.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/htmlContent.jhtml?html=/archive/1997/05/17/ctax17.html
New WRAL News/Rasmussen Primary Poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 33% .. Obama 56%
http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2691961/
37 - “Alex Salmond will claim that [the Tories] have no real democratic legitimacy to run Scotland.”
Except that Devolution means that, with exceptions, Westminster does not run Scotland. Holyrood does. Or is the author suggesting that the Labour Party should now be in power in Holyrood on the basis that it has most Westminster MPs?
76
And this
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2007/03/the_10p_startin.html
On the thread article re the big weighting error for age in the London Mayoral polls , it is a bit surprising to me that Peter Kellner states that this did not effect the final headline figures as the overriding weighting is Party ID .
I presume this age weighting error does not apply to the national polls but if it is weighting to Party ID that is all important in Yougov polls ,it is a bit worrying that this is untested as prior to the last GE they wieghted by past vote as the other pollsters with the exception of Ipsos Mori still do .
Good analysis, Mike.
To respond to David Herdson and others on tactical voting, there is a marked difference between YouGov and ICM on second choice too. ICM has LDs choosing Ken by 43-30 as their second choice. My recolection is that the national picture also shows Labour ahead as second preference, but not by as much as in the past.
But Peter Kellner is certainly right that the key issue is that lots of Labour (and LD) voters want to give Boris their *first* preference. This is not past Labour voters, but present ones, who’ve taken everything on board and still plan to vote Labour. I’m not involved in the London campaign (I’m up in Nottingham for two weeks and helping in Amber Valley, where the BNP are threatening) but I’d assume the decision to focus on Boris’s political views rather than his competence reflects this - Ken will gain if the campaign becomes more polarised on political lines.
seanT previously commented that Ken’s family life would only become really problematic if he was shown not to have looked after his kids. In fact it sounds pretty harmonious, with the ex-partners too. I gather his former wife has refused several large cash offers to do kiss-and-tell stories - whatever you think of Ken, good for her.
81 Try telling that to the several million low-paid/pensioners who will lose around £200 pa or more as from this week following Brown’s abolition of the 10p rate.
86 Nick, do you support Brown’s doubling of the tax rate from 10p to 20p for some of the poorest members of the community?
New ARG Primary Poll for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 45% .. Obama 45%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-704.html
80 - “obviously” - just like “clearly”, this is is pb code for “I am writing bollocks.”
re 85. Mark - I think that YouGov used party ID weightings before the 2005 general election as well.
As far as I can see the national poll weightings are OK - only this group of mayoral polls are problematic.
Well an election is not over till the ballots are cast, counted and the result declared (Zimbabwe - nearly 2 weeks on)! Maybe this is why Labour want to stop the count on the night of the election?
More interesting though is the narrotive of the London elections. A backcloth of mounting chaos: Terminal 5 and its failings, Olympic Torches been protected in the streets by hundreds of policemen (Surprised nobody has commented on the fact that the police could be doing better things - like investigating the Labour party for sleaze
) , Financial market chaos and job losses predicted, house prices starting to tilt downwards etc.
To be fair to Ken Livingstone (Cannot use first name only!), he is not responsible for some of the chaos that has ensued but i am afraid he is the one who will cop it!
87
I think its a great mistake to abolish it!
But the Tories opposed its introduction, they are now are supporting it. Just as they opposed the minimum wage, why they also now support.
You can’t help being a little cynical, at least DF is honest, click on 84.
88 - that’s a bit simplistic. Although the very poorest are being hit a bit by this, are the personal allowances going up too, to offset this “doubling” in part?
What’s your view on flat tax?
75 SBS I agree in some ways the coalition the SNP are in power but in reality still in opposition mode, trying to keep a rainbow coalition together to achieve one aim.
The fundemental questions of who will be head of state in an independent Scotland, will be fudged or kicked into the long grass or placed in the too difficult tray.
However if they achieve there goal, they must be looking at Eire, Southern Ireland as the template.
92 - do you really think the T5 chaos will be blamed on the incumbent mayor? Does the public think he should have been down at Heathrow sorting it out?
94 - The bands are routinely indexed to allow for inflation. If the bands remain static it is effectively a tax increase. Removing the 10p band is an increase in tax regardless of indexation of bands.
92
I blame the privatization of BAA (that was a cock up) and BA myself.
78. The Lib Dems are in favour of proportional representation, which negates the main issue with the West Lothian Question (a majority in England being overturned by Scottish/Welsh MPs).
I live in Scotland, so I am neutral as to whether England has its own parliament or not.
More news on the resignation of Mark Penn, Clinton’s Chief Strategist :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/mark-penn-resigns-from-cl_n_95323.html
96. No - but folk tend to think in narrotives and bring all the ‘problems’ together and unfortunatly for the mayor - he will get the blame by those who think this way.
Problem for the Mayor is apart from the congestion charge most of what the Mayor does is invisible - unless someone does not like it. The negatives stick and really - i cannot honestly think of any positives for the mayor.
This is why Ken Livingstone has real problems as Labour are in the doldrums as well.
98. What do you think should have been done instead?
97 - forgot what he’d done. Of course the dividend is in the reduction of the basic rate for those above the old 10p threshold. Not much good to the very poor.
Still, it moves towards flat tax, so must please some Tories.
Hillary’s latest ‘misspeak’ blunder continues to gather pace :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/07/wuspols107.xml
91 No Mike , sorry you are incorrect , although they measured Party ID they weighted by age , gender social class and region also by newspaper readership and PAST VOTE ( capitals are mine ) - see for example their GE survey Telegraph No 8 . What they did not indicate is which of these weightings if any was given priority of others .
102
Why is it called the British Airports Authority, its owned by a Spanish company, (hmmm didn’t Mrs T have a thing about Spanish practices) it should be called the Spanish Airports Authority surely?
88 How out of touch are you? The very poorest are being hit more than “a bit” People on 12k or less gross are losing £200 or more net pa. That is a hell of a lot for people on such low incomes. Even some Labour MP’s are now stirring themselves to protest.
Mark my words this is a serious issue and will rebound on Brown and co.
As for flat tax, as a fan of von Mises and the Austrians I am all for it and note that several emerging East European countries are adopting it. Increase the personal allowance to circa £11k and it will be a big hit.
99. The LD’s could well find that they are ground into the dust this time in London, not only in the mayor election but by a coat tails effect. That is Boris and Ken Livingstone manage to attract sufficient supporters from there respective political party bases and defereciencient turnout to an extent that the more fluid LD vote is ground into the dust. If the Mayor elections are the primary focus then it could well be the case that the assembly elections follow more partisan patterns than the last time.
Ken Livingstone made me laugh recently trying to compare Boris with Richard Nixon in 1968 - I thought Ken Livinstone was supposed to be a man of the poeople: How could most London voters empathise with the merits of Nixon in 1968 and London now? Many probably under the age of 30, will not be aware of Nixon ever was! (I say this as in polls - people often don’t even recognise cabinet ministers etc!). What i am really saying is that Ken Livingstone is yesterdays man.
As a Scottish Conservative I can tell you there is no support in our party for Scottish Independence. This is a point of principle and I believe will never change. The SNP desperately hope that some English Tories will see Scottish independence as a short term win for their party but my hope is that our leaders put the country before their party and themselves. I think that a Conservative Government at Westminster would actually improve relationships between Holyrood and Westminster. There is no doubt that Annabelle Goldie gets on much better with Salmond than Wendy Alexander.
Living in Scotland you can see the country becoming middle class at a fast pace. The urban council blocks are coming down and being replaced with modern semis. Our immigrant population is also quite small. As a result the population is not so tribal and understands issues much better. The problem that the SNP face is that the better they manage Scotland the less interest there is for constitutional change and if they mess it up they will be thrown out.
Back on message I see from the Yougov poll I see that it was the young voters who may have been missed but they are also supporters of Boris like the old. I have always believed that the Lib Dem inclined supporters would decide the election from the start. When Ken started attacking the Lib Dems at the council meetings he signed his own resignation letter. It is far too late to say sorry. All he can hope for is that Boris makes a mistake but so far he has been playing a blinder.
107 - I quite like the idea of flat tax, but under any streamlining of tax bands, there will always be some losers - unless it is accompanied by cuts in public spending. Under your £11K personal allowance, somebody must lose out heavily. Who?
Brown’s folly here is to hit the most vulnerable. These are natural Labour voters, but may not bother to vote at all if treated like this.
102
As for what should have been done, its simple: Each airport should have been set up as an individual company, with 25% of the shares being owned by the local authorities, (so that local voters would have input into development and benefit from its success) airports would have been then free to compete against each other.
I think Cameron has hinted at something along those lines, but I won’t be holding my breath.
As for BA it should have been broken up! Heath made a major error,(amongst others) when he combined BOAC and BEA, that should now be reversed.
111 - BA was also able to swallow B Cal, its major competition, with barely a whimper from the Mon and Merg Commission.
110 - He is banking on the group in question either not noticing, or being so pro-Labour that nothing shifts their vote.
61. Ted “What is it with politicians and their first names? ……..Gideon (Osborne) decided to be George…….”
I can’t imagine…….
112-If I remember correctly back in 1987/88 this was classed as a “merger”.
106. Maybe Labour should have nationaised it like railtrack and Northern rock.
You might have a point with the foriegn ownership of the BAA, i never had you as a protectionist or eurosceptic. Obviously the lack of patriotism and capacity of Labour to sell out soveriegnty on so many trade and foriegn policy issues has made you feel that British economic and political soverienty needs saving?
111
I know! its a monster, it’ll never work. Long haul and short haul, are totally different animals: different aircraft, ethos, everything.
113 - Look at turnout figures in safe Labour seats. This underclass probably does not often vote at all. And if they did get angry about this and vote, it would not be Tory.
Inside Gordon’s mind….”Poor people vote for Labour - so how can I make sure the poor stay poor? I know - we’ll tax them some more! Ah, but the more aspirational working/middle classes might well desert Labour - so I’d better try and outdo the Tories by giving them a 2p tax cut.” Cracking strategy, Gordon.
Compounding the misery of those on the lowest of incomes to help the middle classes pay for the tax rises on their vino marks a new low, even for this Government. How the Labour Party have sleep-walked into this disaster would be incomprehensible - if they hadn’t sleep-walked into allowing Brown to bully and bluff and bluster to the top job last summer.
116
I think it was Harold Macmillan, who criticized Mrs T for selling off the family silver!!
There are certain aspects of our economy which I do believe are so critical to our survival, that allowing them to come under foreign control would be foolish, energy for instance.
As for airports, to have them run by one company, foreign or British is idiotic.
I don’t think the Conservative party has much to be proud about when it comes to, ‘Britain’s interests’
120.
109 - As an English Conservative I do support Scottish independence.
As a believe in small government and self-determination, which is why I am a Conservative, I believe in the right of Scots (and the English) to self-determination as a point of principle too.
110 - The way to introduce a flat tax is as a genuine tax cut combined with a raised threshold. The abolishment of NI and its incorporation into tax should happen at the same time. The Economist has done interesting articles on this in the UK in the past, it is difficult to implement but it can be done such that nobody loses but the exchequer loses some revenue. However long-term the simpler system could even mean less expenses and more growth so that the exchequer gains too.
120. Hold on a minute - BAA was only sold to the spanish in 2006!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAA_Limited
In July 2006, BAA was taken over by a consortium led by Grupo Ferrovial, following a bid which valued the company at £10.1 billion ($20 billion).[1] As a result, the company was delisted from the London Stock Exchange (where it had previously been part of the FTSE100 index) on 15 August 2006, and the company name was subsequently changed from BAA plc to BAA Limited.
122 - I certainly agree with you on employee’s NI and income tax. It will be messy but it can be done - and should be. There are perhaps many steps along the way, one of which is alligning the tax rates on earned income and investment income, which at least this GB fiddle has done.
11. BA has had it far too easy over the years, for sure - slot allocations, Concorde, BCal etc.
It was also a massive error to allow one operator to control all three London airports. The power of corporate vested interests, I’m afraid - remember how quickly they became New Labour cheerleaders after 1997, having worked the Thatcher government equally hard before?
120. Whithout wanting to cause offence, you obviously quote from the Ken Livingstone school of politics - the past. It is Labour who let it be taken over by a foriegn country. To put it in the words of Billy Bragg: Labour (You) are the one farting and then asking why the room stinks!
124 - Governments are very reluctant to “spend” money on reforming the tax system - it’s very expensive while getting little appreciation from the public / taxpayer. This is why income tax and NI remain separate despite everyone wanting to merge them and the Treasury looking at how to do that every few years for the past few decades. FWIW all the simple / relatively painless steps towards aligning the two systems have now been taken, the more difficult issues remain however.
re 61 not forgetting the Lord chancellor John Straw as well.
120
I didn’t say it wasn’t! Since privatization, BAA has gone from bad to worse. At least when it was in the public sector you could kick a politician, now who can you kick? If as I suggested, 25% of each airports shares was owned by the local authority(ies) where the airport is situated, then local residents would have a say in development and a vested interest in its performance.
125
Agree. The solution to both is too break up as I suggested previously.
re 88 he doesn’t, but when he had the chance to vote against it last June, he didn’t.
59. Hmmm Tories taking the high gound over China: Ted Heath was pretty keen on the place I seem to remember.
Well Labour called Heath yesterdays man in 1970 GE - you mention him nearly 40 years later! Coldtone - you are Ken Livinstone!!!
And to-day’s quiz question is: who said this?
In a city that changes as rapidly as London it is hard to believe that a mayor who has served two terms will have the freshness of approach that is required to stay abreast of such a dynamic city.
Back on topic, I presume that because of its higher living standards, London (but especially suburbia that will host Boris’s core voters) must have some of the highest life-expectancies in the country? So the composition for a London poll would be markedly different from one for Glasgow (where in certain areas, people can barely expect to scrape past 60). So versus the national picture, it would be appropriate to significantly over-represent the older voters.
But even that might not tell the full story, because the more socially deprived (and generally Labour-voting) parts of the city might well have a statistically significant lower life expectancy than the comfy outer donut. So combined, this suggests to me that London should have a higher proportion of older folk than the national average; but that within that higher proportion, the splits significantly favours Boris’ voters. So combining two polls, one inner London, one outer, weighted for average life-spans, would give a truer picture than one generic “London” poll.
132. Ken Livingstone of course
132 - Mr Livingstone, I presume.
I’ll try and find a harder one next time
129-When the State run these outfits, you couldn’t kick a politician. I guess you could kick a civil “servant” but they are even less responsive, what with secure tenures, gold plated pensions, etc.
133, 134 - This is the ‘dehumanised moron’ who scrapped Routemasters as well.
136 - of course a nice by-product of merging NI and Income Tax would be the sacking of lots of civil servants.
132 etc - when did he say that - can’t have been about a previous Mayor by definition so…?
[9] - Not only that, but Paddick gets almost as many voters who identify as Labour supporters (7% of 431 = ~30) as he does those who identify as Lib Dems (31% of 106 = ~33).
It would appear that many Lib Dem supporters are going to vote for Boris to get rid of Ken, and a fair number will vote for Ken to stop the Tory, but if they’d just vote for their own guy they would be close to sneaking in ahead of Ken, and presumably picking up enough of Labour voters’ second preferences to win.
I think that only the Lib Dems can beat Boris, but the Lib Dems have been so busy messing about with the national leadership and cosying up to Labour, that they’ve failed to put Ken under pressure for the run-off spot.
O/T From two threads ago.
329. An SDP type split would happen because of something like the West Lothian Question. Many English Labour MPs are getting sick of the treatment of England. I would expect Frank Field to lead a split, and hopefully the anglophobic labour scum party put out of action for good. The problem is the Tories are only slightly better. An English Grand Committee is a step towards English self government and will ultimately lead to an English Parliament and then full independence.
106 I wonder if you have noticed, coldstone. But there has been a Labour Govt since 1 May 1997. Ted Heath and Margaret Thatcher ceased to wield power a long time ago.
It was a Labour Govt that stood by as Spanish Ferrovial (with massive debt) bought BAA. It was nothing to do with Thatcher or Heath.
It is clearly foolish for one incompetent company — whether privately or publicly owned — to run the airports. It is all clearly foolish for a Spanish company to run the British airports. However, the blame for the present situation rests with the Labour Govt — they have been in power for over 10 years and could and should have done some thing about it.
As long as BAA have a monopoly on London airports, nothing will improve.
Sorry, but Labour can and should have acted by now.
138 - The collection of income tax and NI was merged by Labour quite a few years ago, they are now totally integrated with little potential for further efficiency savings there.
131
To some of us, ‘Yesterday’ is just that, ‘Yesterday’
When Dave is, arse licking the Chinese, (just like the present government) I wonder what you’ll be saying then, ‘Good news, Daves just come back from China, orders for this, orders for that, that’ll send us up in the polls, might even get above 25%’
136
So whats the difference? CEO’s walk out with exactly the same rewards, even bigger: my ‘ol boss did!
The politicians’ I’m thinking of here, would be local, if they had a place on the board, you’d have some input, some point of contact with the airport.
BREAKING NEWS…
New YouGov poll for today’s Evening Standard giving Boris 13% Lead
Boris 49% (Up 2)
Livingstone 36% (Down 1)
Brian Paddick 10% (Unchanged)
Sian Berry (Green Party) 2% (Unchanged)
Others 3%
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/04/boris-poll-lead.html
CEO’s walk out with exactly the same rewards, even bigger: my ‘ol boss did!
Was that was a reward for sacking or pensioning off you? If so, richly deserved.
When second preferences are allocated Boris is ahead of Livingstone by 56% to 44%.
Boris poll lead up to 13% in an Evening Standard poll being reported at Conhom.
* Boris 49% (Up 2)
* Livingstone 36% (Down 1)
* Brian Paddick 10% (Unchanged)
* Sian Berry (Green Party) 2% (Unchanged)
* Others 3%
145.Beat me to it! I was surprised no one had spotted it
It’ll be interesting to see what happens when YouGov’s next Mayoral poll is releaded. Mark Senior reported they polled him yesterday, so we shouldn’t have too long to wait before we see YouGov’s revised Mayoral poll.