What do we think of PoliticsHome?
April 8th, 2008
Can it do for Stephan what 18 Doughty Street didn’t?
Stephan Shakespeare, the former campaign manager for Jeffrey Archer, who went on to found YouGov has a launched a new venture this week, PoliticsHome.com. It’s a website totally devoted to politics and brings together links, blogs, and videos in a form that, in Stephan’s words, will make it “the “Bloomberg of politics” covering political power as seriously as Bloomberg did financial clout.”
There’s a lot of money going into the site and a largish team has been recruited to provide the regularly updated content that such a venture needs. People will only visit if they think it is worth visiting and that means there has to be a reason to go there several times a day.
One feature is PHI - which I assume stands for Politics Home Index. The idea is that a panel of 100 “experts” are asked regularly for their views of political outcomes and these are featured in graphic form on the site. Thus PH 100 gives the panel’s views of the London Mayoral race and this is expressed in percentage terms.
The experts, though, are not risking any money on the race and just looking at it this morning, 24 hours after YouGov’s latest 13% lead for Boris, it appears slow to react. We find the trend is moving away from the Tory in spite of a big swing towards him in the betting. It looks interesting but I cannot quite see the point.
Live betting price charts, like those available on PB’s new betting section, would have been a whole lot better, more informative and not just for punters.
The site also needs to be 24/7 and that means a night shift. I was disappointed when I got up early this morning to do PB that Politics Home did not seem to have been updated. In the era of IPhones, Blackberries and smart PDAs, there’s a fair bit of traffic to be had out there before 7am and the site needs to be serving it.
Stephan’s last big venture was the 18 Doughty Street politics internet TV channel. It was a good idea but didn’t get the audience figures to sustain it. PoliticsHome does deserves to succeed - we need something in the UK akin to the excellent Real Clear Politics site in the US.
Mike Smithson
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Too much black !! …. are they in mourning for something ??
1 - They are aping bloomberg, which is similarly black.
Looks like an old BBC micro strategy game.
Politics without the human element. Duff. Better off getting facts here.
LOL @3 !
Aaah, bring back Elite…
Follwoing on from the last thread re SNP.
Wouldn’t it be crafty for them to stand in Englis seats. They might get a few votes from English Nationalists.
Mike, referring back to the last thread, I am concerned that non-regular readers of PB.com may be unaware that Aaron and Shadsy work for betting companies. Could you insist they add the company’s name to their own to avoid any confusion, please?
The lesson of the previous thread is: when Aaron/Corals offers us a new set of prices, act quickly on other markets to be ready for his ‘laying off’ about two hours later. Easy money.
7 - Jesus, Baskerville, it was a joke (check out the posts I referred to). And I don’t work for Corals (why would I be advising their prices as tips if I did?)
I hardly think a 4/5 seat move on Spreadfair is “urgent” either - if as Casino Royale says it’s someone arbing between them and Sporting Index (which it probably was) then any opportunity has, by definition, gone.
Furthermore I seriously doubt if any fixed-odds firm would lay off anything (let alone a tiny politics market) using a spread firm.
7. Baskerville. Aaron works for Bet365 not Corals.
7 - and, no, Mike can’t insist. Who do you work for?
8. A 4/5 seat move can make individuals a decent turn and therefore is of more interest on this site than some of the drivel that we get, therefore my ‘urgent’ was an attempt to get people’s attention - I’ll use ‘achtung’ next time to avoid upsetting you.
I like a joke, too, Aaron, but money is serious, so I like people to be up front about any interests they may have on here.
10. Enough, already. Maybe I was a bit precious/uptight. I work for myself these days, so probably need to get out more.
11 - don’t take yourself too seriously, will you?
12 - hadn’t seen that when I posted 13. Pax, as seanT would say.
7 - Whilst I appreciate your concern for non-regulars, I don’t think your being quite fair.
Aaron and Shadsy have frequently gone to pains to acknowledge that they work for bookmakers, and when they post odds, there is very little ’steer’. They are open about when major bets are placed, why odds have moved, and which bets would hurt them the most.
If they were doing anything that disadvantaged irregular visitors to the site (ignoring the huge benefits and information they bring), like suggesting bad-value bets, they could just as easily do it with a fake name and new e-mail address. I don’t think they would do this, I don’t think anyone is actually at risk, and I don’t think outrageously bad advice would go unnoticed by punters on this site.
I think your intentions are good, but I don’t think this is actually a problem.
15 - Although I’m with you on flagging ‘urgent’ - it may be nothing, or it may be significant. Best to flag it, so we can make up our own minds. Thanks
I like the concept of PoliticsHome, but I agree with Mike that its got to be a 24/7 operation to work effectively. I don’t like the black backdrop, and I imagine that others will find it irritating as well.
… meanwhile PoliticsHome doesn’t seem to be interesting the punters.
IMO it suffers from one main problem. Has there really ever been a NEED for a political news aggregation service? Er, no.
* People need to read financial news quickly, both in depth and with an overview, or they can lose money. So Bloomberg does well.
* Pb.com can save you £££s by timely insights or scene setting pieces. The betting sharpens things up.
Compared to these PoliticsHome is a bit naval gazing. There are arguably needs for other political websites perhaps. But not this one.
How does one come to work for a bookies (in setting odds)? It would be my dream job.
15, thank you Morus.
For the avoidance of doubt, I should say that my posts here are based on my own political opinions and my own punting, though hopefully I can also provide a bit of insight into the mechanics of betting and the nature of the industry.
The company I work for (which is bet365 as stjohn says) doesn’t do much in the way of political betting (for perfectly good reasons) so I’m not in the same boat as Shadsy, whose posts therefore come from a different angle (and are no less valuable for that).
Please understand that all opinions, tips etc. are my own and not those of bet365.
18. Agreed. Stick to PB.com, the original and best.
18 - They are trying to create a market, rather than respond to a gap in one, and I’ not sure they are wrong.
News aggregation sites seem to be much more common across the pond, and can be a fantastic resource. Real Clear Politics is one example, but nowadays Drudge Report is not dissimilar in content, since he rarely writes editorials any more.
As the UK media become more obsessed with Comment and OpEds, and VoxPop seeps from the blogosphere to TV/Newspapers (where it belongs and is great to the BBC where is doesn’t and it isn’t), picking out the news and politics gems from the sprawling splurdge of the MSM becomes more necessary.
I quite like the format, and anticipate it will become 24hr, more responsive, and more engaging once it has found its feet. Needs some movement - rolling banners or something - but otherwise pretty aesthetically pleasing. Good luck to them.
19 - noisy: I actually joined Ladbrokes on a graduate scheme that they ran from time to time [shadsy may be able to advise on its current status]. However this is pretty unusual.
The most common way into “Trading” (the part of the company that sets odds & manages liabilities) is via working your way up. Historically this would be something like Cashier - Shop Manager - Bet Acceptance Centre (the link between Trading & the shops).
These days it’s as likely to be Call Centre Agent - Administration Desk (i.e. creating events & selections for the database) - In Play Assistant (running some easyish markets during events).
In either case a talented individual should gain promotion fairly quickly (within a reasonably progressive firm).
Also these days a rapid distinction is evolving between Pre-Event trading and In-Play trading which require somewhat different skill sets.
It’s a great industry to be in.
23. Thanks for that! Not sure I will be able to go into it at this stage, but maybe something for the future. Beats what I do for a living in any case!
Far, far too much black - I just can’t understand why websites do this.
I guess, Grampa Smithson has already made PoliticsHome irrelevant by doing what it’s supposed to do better than it does, and having already been doing it for many years.
As you say, the punters are putting their money where their mouths are, which gives their opinions a force which some arbitrary panel of soi disant experts will never manage.
If you look at British politics on the web, it’s most likely linked to tv, newspapers, magazines, successful individual bloggers, party sites. I would have thought it difficult to compete with those brands that are more than web-based.
Of course this new site could claim to be impartial (which most sites aren’t), but says who? Why should we necessarily believe that this new site isn’t going to be liberal/conservative/authoritarian etc.
27. In my experience, it’s impossible for an organisation to be free from bias, but those that attempt to do so mean they report enough information its a decent source for making your own mind up. Unlike the polemicists whose prejudice is so thick you couldn’t find reality in it if you tried.
Too black. Compare it to the revamped BBC website - brighter, clearer, easier to read.
That said, I like the concept.
OT - For those who bet on spread markets (like stocks and shares as Mike says), what kind of stake do you normally put down per seat?
I’m convinced the Tories will win the next election and so have jumped head first into betting now and I’m worried the stake may be too much. £50 a seat buy on the Tories (£10 at 314, £40 at 317) and a £25 sell on Labour (at 262).
Beginning to get very worried though that if I’m wrong, £75 a seat essentially could be a heck of a lot of money.
On Topic. Never heard of it.
Last topic. Interesting that ICM had Lab 43 Con 33 LD 18 at late as 30/4/97.
You could argue the Tories are ahead of schedule!
[Ave it would say Tories take ICM!]
The site does appear rather difficult to see although not as bad as http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ Perhaps it’s the fonts which are used?
“Stephan Shakespeare, the former campaign manager for Jeffrey Archer,”
When I read those words I made a sine die decision that I will never visit the site.
Malcolm
@27:
It’s like with Wikipedia: there’s no such thing as “objectivity”, so any attempt to strive for that is doomed to failure. However, if we maintain the line that PBC articles should describe disputes, rather than engaging in them, then Mike can leave it to us below-the-cut shamefully-partisan denizens of the dark to battle it out for King and Country.
It won’t get us any closer to objective truth, mind, but it will allow all who partake a clearer understanding of where the disagreements are.
And that is as close to “neutral” or “unbiased” that any political site is ever likely to achieve.
@32:
It’s worth pointing out that Archer’s campaign was well-run. It was merely Archer himself that had, ahem, unresolved issues.
32 - Stephan Shakespeare is also failed Tory candidate for Colchester.
32 Was that the campaign to have him convicted or elected?
32 Stephan Shakespeare is also really Stephan Kukowski. Bloody immigrants coming over here stealing our webspace!
The key to making money on the spreads is to get in and get out regularly to ‘fix’ your winnings or minimise your losses.
On the Tory seats you have £50 at about 316 and the current spread is 318/319 so you could sell some, put some money in the bank and reduce your exposure. But, if you think the price is going up to the next crunch point - 325, when the Tories would have a majority - then you should stick it out as long as your nerve, and credit holds.
On Labour, 262 is a bit lower than the current spread - 268-269 - so you couldn’t reduce your exposure without losing some money. But, then again, if the tories are going to 325, Labour probably has to fall below 360, so you judge the risk.
At various times I have bought Tories at 275 down to 250 and then sold gradually as they rose to the 300s. I made a few quid on Labour buying in the 280s and selling at the peak 315s, then selling them down to their current level. Most recently I have made money buying Tories in the 290s and selling them at up to 310.
I have a rule that in aggregate I won’t risk more than £100 a point.
On the bets above, I am currently about £4000 up.
At the moment, I have a sell on Labour at £70 pounds a point - built up in parcels ranging from £5 to £15 - and a Tory buy at £30 a point, because I think the Labour spread has further to fall than the Tories’ to rise in the short/medium term.
@35:
I believe the preferred term is ‘unsuccessful’.
38. refers to 29.
Update from the bunker - Nick Robinson allowed in for tea, tiffin and denial.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/04/refusing_to_be_gloomy.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7336642.stm
I had a quick look at the site. The first impression is that it is yet another site devoted to promoting the Tory interest.
41 - Yes Brown lieing through his teeth again.
42. How on earth do you work that out?
38 - I understand the idea of buying low and selling high, but the idea of trading often is one I can’t get my head fully around yet. Taking Sportingindex for example, there’s a a 6 seat spread, every time you trade you ‘lose’ six points worth don’t you? How do you ensure your variance covers that loss?
@41:
Gordon Brown is refusing to look or sound gloomy.
Could have fooled me, Nick Robinson. He’s been looking and sounding gloomy since 1994, AFAICT.
29 - I’m nervous about Spreadbetting on General Election seat, so tend to limit myself to £10-£20 per seat. I know the serious punters on here regularly play for in excess of £100 per seat, but there aren’t many of them.
£75/seat is a big exposure - if you were wrong by 40 seats (Labour biggest party (just) in a Hung Parliament, as Rod Crosby suggests) that could be £6000 lost. I genuinely don’t think you are holding a bad position, but if you are concerned about your liabilities, I would wait until after the Local elections in May to modify.
From May 2nd-6th, if Boris wins and the Tories do well, I think their polls will go back into the 10%12% lead range. If the Election seats go up as well, I would consider laying off some of that cash, for comfort’s sake.
41. yuck. Brown once again trying to dig his way out of a hole. I’m guessing Nick Robinson wasn’t too hard on him either.
OT
Turnout only
50% of Londoners to vote for mayor
http://www.eadt.co.uk/content/eadt/politics/story.aspx?brand=EADOnline&category=Politics&tBrand=EADOnline&tCategory=zpolitics&itemid=IPED08%20Apr%202008%2013%3A32%3A14%3A757
42. No point in backing losers, is there?
42.Not at all Tressage, it just feels that way because its all bad news for Brown and the economy at the moment.
Isn’t Andrew Rawnsley the editor?
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/articles/2005-7325.html
Apologies if this has been posted before but it seems Ken isn’t happy with polling.
Good to see democracy in full flow again.
“Leading London mayoral candidates are temporarily postponing their attacks on each other to target the British National party (BNP).
Mr Livingstone, Conservative candidate Boris Johnson and Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick are attending an event organised by political participation group Operation Black Vote featuring an unveiling of an anti-BNP poster.”
Operation Black vote is funded by taxpayers money. And they spend that money by attacking one party.
How about Operation White vote? No, of course not, that would be racist.
I’d prefer Mugabe to run British elections than the LibLabConmen.
Rant over. Good news - Since nominations closed for the local elections - The Patriots have already won 7 seats uncontested.
52 - Ken is behind in said polling, no wonder he isn’t happy. He should avoid the standards web survey too, last I looked it had him behind Paddick as well!
“I’d prefer Mugabe to run British elections … The Patriots” :puke:
I hope you’re not for real.
45. That’s why I use SpreadFair because the spreads are set by the punters and not the bookie. On the seats market, they vary from one to about 6 points usually.
53 - Disgraceful post.
55 - It is best to ignore it frankly Philip, better to engage with those who have opinions rather than paranoid fantasies.
55 - I think Emily is probably a spoof. Or somebody not very bright.
Messrs Griffin and Barnbrook are trying to make the BNP look reasonable and intelligent. To some extent they are succeeding (in dressing up a wolf in sheep’s clothing). But comments like the Mugabe one are just vile. What next, Emily? A gag about the Holocaust?
57 - Is it? It strikes me that all publicly funded “Get Out The Vote” operations are somewhat antidemocratic, especially if they are targeted at sections of the population (whether students, ethnic minorities, women or whatever).
Simply because Emily is a BNP supporter (a party whose policies I am opposed to) doesn’t mean that everything she says has no merit, does it?
55. I assume you’d prefer Mugabe because he’s good at fixing results? That’s the only chance the BNP have got of winning, after all.
Though of course the Mugabe bit was unnecessary and wrong and has somewhat undermined her earlier case, as does her continual attempt to paint the BNP as “Patriots” (and the rest of us, by extension, as unpatriotic).
29. My favourite advice on spread betting comes from Kevin Pullein, the Racing Post’s cerebral but deadly boring football tipster.
“The worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen”.
It’s very easy to convince yourself of a worst case scenario, which turns out to be anything but. I once fancied Crystal Palace to do rather better than the prices suggested in a game at QPR. I bought their performance index, which gives you points for goals, minus points for sendings off etc. They got beat 6-0 and had two players sent off. If there hadn’t been a stop-loss I’d still be paying it off.
If you use Spreadfair though, how much of your own money do you have to put in, in advance?
EG at the moment you could sell 8 Labour @268.5 - do you have to put in £3052 (the max that could be lost if Labour won 650) in order to do that? Or if you were to buy the available £5 of Tory @ 319.4 would you have to put in £1597 (loss if Tory won 0) in order to do that? Presumably not?
63 - Recommendation: No Bet
Although I abhore the BNP and everything they stand for, I am forced to admit Emily Powell-Churchill does raise a point here.
Operation Back Vote receives most of its money from the taxpayer, and as a taxpayer I hope that continues. However, I am surprised that a body which receives most of its funding in this way is permitted to run an advert such as this in the weeks running up to an election. All other publicly-funded bodies (except for political parties competing) enter purdah for the weeks leading up to an election, for fear of *appearing* biased. A press release on child poverty would be stopped, yet not an apparently partisan poster.
I welcome Operation Black Vote working to improve tunrout - obviously, this is not governed by purdah - and in spite of their blanket support for Lee Jasper, I hope they continue to receive taxpayers’ money. However, I think it would be better for their cause if they kept anti-fascist campaigns away from OBV during purdah, and didn’t give the BNP a publicity coup that re-enforces their (false) claim that they are victimised by the system.
I am sure the staff of Rampton are aware of Emily’s escape,and she will soon be safe back in her padded cell
60 - Yes, and by bringing up the likes of Mugabe she doen’t do her other more valid points any favours. I too am very sceptical about campaigns to increase turnout - people will vote if and only if they are moved to vote by their like/dislike of the candidates. In this case, ironically, turnout is forecast to be much higher than last time (see 49) – because people* are sick of Ken and inspired by Boris.
(* generalisation alert…)
66. It should be called “Operation Vote” ?
OT- General Petraeus testifying to the The Senate Armed Services Cmte.
You can watch it if ya like on http://www.c-span.org
Is it not an insult to black people that they have a special fund to encourage them to vote? Are they a democracy ’special needs’ group or simply the same as everyone else?
Of course they are non partisan too.
http://www.voice-online.co.uk/content.php?show=13125
surely the BNP don’t actually have any female members?
how does “Emily” feel about the “force-feeding with chocolate” thing?
Speaking of the BNP, anyone watch the Immigration program on Channel 4 last night.
The main point seemed to be that people feel far more free to oppose imigration and not feel racist saying so, which I guess is a good thing to stop people feeling they have to vote BNP to get their point across.
73. it was Michael Howard who did the most to bring “anti-immigration” racists into the mainstream fold.
66. If that is true about OBV, then it’s a big mistake. It’s hardly surprising that the organisation quietly abhors the BNP, but for a taxpayer funded organisation to do this only gives petrol to their enemies.
I wish such organisations could see this.
PoliticsHome? U.G.L.Y. It ain’t got no alibi, it’s ugly.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 43%
McCain 47% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 40% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
If the BNP can’t get Mugabe as their election coordinator, there is an alternative set of chaps they might wish to get in touch with in Fermanagh & South Tyrone…
71. While I don’t know enough about the organisation to judge their impartiality, it seems reasonable for organisations to exist that aim to up the voter in demographics that are underrepresented in the polling booth.
This was a good move:
“U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in a televised interview with the British Broadcasting Corp. Tuesday.
“Because we’ve got low inflation, we can cut interest rates,” Brown said.” : Thompson Financial News
Since this master stroke of fiction the Pound has plummeted against the Dollar and Euro.
He seems unable to understand that the markets have a better idea than he does of the real inflation rate. He promises lower interest rates and money moves away, he sits with a banner saying ‘crisis what crisis’ and confidence ebbs ever further away.
Time for this shambolic herd to depart.
74- There was also a guy who moved to Scotland because in Scotland “People havent been made to feel ashamed to be proud of their country”.
You listening Labour?
I was not aware of Emily’s politics, and find the Mugabe comment very silly, but stripped of all the swivel-eyed stuff her underlying point, if the bare facts are as stated, seems spot on: as long as the BNP is not a proscribed organisation, public money should surely not be spent in this way. Posters’ dislike of the BNP, of the wording of Emily’s post or indeed of Emily personally do not seem to me to alter that principle.
64. SpreadFair offer a credit facility or you can deposit funds. Each market has a Notional Trading Requirement. I’m not sure what it is for the seat market, you’ll have to ring them up. If it’s, say, 10, you have to have a credit of ten times your stake to bet. So, if you want to bet £10 a point, you would need £100 in your account.
76. I think it’s pretty sleek. The design is certainly not something it has to worry about. It has all the makings to be an excellent site.
82. I agree. But if you go down that road, OBV won’t be the only target. Lots of charities, which receive massive tax relief, campaign in an openly political way - often verging on the partisan. Yet nothing is done about that, either.
75 - not just these organisations, but the entire political class: I’m sure it’s counterproductive for Livingstone, Johnson and Paddick to all publicly band together against the BNP in this way?
79 - Socrates, why is this a “reasonable” aim for a publicly funded body? Surely political parties should be undertaking this work, if they think it is in their interests (almost by definition, it should be in some of their interests).
83. add. That doesn’t mean of course you can’t lose more than £100. It’s just their ‘insurance’ level. If you lose more than £100, they’ll call you up and ask you to close your position and pay up, or deposit more money to cover it.
49. EDW, the 8/11 Extrabet are offering for turnout > 40% in the Mayoral Election looks very good value based on that article.
First Public Election Broadcasts: (London)
Livingstone http://www.mayorwatch.co.uk/Ken-Livingstones-Election-Broadcast-article_id-1485.html
Johnson
http://www.mayorwatch.co.uk/Boris-Johnsons-Election-Broadcast-article_id-1486.html
80. This was exactly the kind of statement that Frank Luntz highlighted from Brown was a complete vote loser. He does not feel the pain of the voters - he tells them that they are mistaken about financial difficulties of his making.
Its a double whammy - he causes the hurt and then doesnt empathise with the hurt either…
79
Fine but not with public money. Democracy is about choice and if they choose not to vote that is their right.
Besides if ethnic mins. see a candidate they like, they vote as with Obama. British ethnic mins. are not children.
88
Thanks Caveman, I’ll take a peak. You have always given me good info. Much appreciated.
87 add. Alternatively, buy Mike’s book.
85 - agree 100%. It is a line-drawing problem, therefore intrinsically difficult, but there is no way that the line is currently in the right place.
Zim: High Court ruled the MDC case to be urgent. Zanu-PF attacked ZEC officials themselves in South and East, and ordered more land seizures; but party now seems badly rattled. “Veterans” seem to have split, with faction now calling for “tyrant” Mugabe to go. All now rests on Court, but unleashing violence is putting pressure on Mugabe, not MDC.
Comment:
I think Livingstone’s is definitely more appealing - I don’t know what Johnson was thinking, but just watching him talk (in Black & White!) about what he thinks London should do isn’t really to his advantage. Looks unimaginative, boring, gray (reinforced by the appeal for postal votes - as if he’s relying on the old/infirm vote), when you know the buffoon image the guy usually has it comes off as being phoney as well.
KL mostly used shots of the most modern dynamic parts of London, the City, cafes, busy streets, the Olympics etc, there’s some stuff for everyone, nothing too controversial (like multiculturalism, the congestion charge, council tax). The music is good too. Of course a lot of that has nothing to do with him, Japanese companies don’t choose to come here because of him.
Kind of corny having all the people walk up to him saying he’s the best or eating his bacon and eggs etc are the downside but will appeal to those who like his ‘personality’ so don’t matter too much. Also the emphasis on how important the mayoralty is overstated making him look desperate when you know how the polls are.
I remember booing Ken Livingstone on St George’s Day last year at the world’s largest coconut orchestra. It got a lot off my chest.
I’m surprised some of you old codgers have got your y-fronts in a twist re: the Mugabe comment.
Mugabe does his election rigging via the front door; threats, kidnap, blackmail, bribery, theft, printing millions of extra ballots etc……
I believe the three old gang parties (mainly Labour)do their election fraud via the back door; Giving Trade Unions money to campaign, postal fraud, allowing Charities to be political, banning Patriotic parties from appearing on BBC political programmes etc……
98 - Isn’t Mugabe’s wing of Zanu called the “Patriotic Front”?
84 - I find it really hard to look at. I’m not saying that I’ll never go back, but it would need a pretty amazing reason to do so. If my view is typical or common, that is something for the website proprietors to worry about.
98 - Ok then, try and persuade us, without being racist, why we should vote BNP. What are their policies? What are they going to do to improve London?
Also please don’t call me an old codger. I’m not old.
@98:
What sort of girl are you, Emily? Front door or back door?
I invite the assembled to make their own guesses.
90. I think that was part of the reason for Harold Wilson’s success - he always gave the impression that he was suffering along with the rest of us.
98 - It’s probably best not to seek to engage too much, we’ll end up bogged down in a BNP discussion all afternoon.
O/T - Before I am forced to launch into a passionate anti-BNP diatribe a little levity! Your money isn’t always safe in the bank vault!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7334033.stm
Note the reference to the ‘old gang’ there.
Max Moseley’s dad used to use that expression, as ‘Emily’ is no doubt well aware. Not that the BNP have any connection whatever with fascists, of course.
53
That does sound off. Aren’t there any laws to prevent publicly funded organisations favouring/attacking individual political parties?
96 - Blimey, I thought that disabled lady would cast her wheelchair aside after being touched by Ken!
102. Can feel Jack W’s blood presure rising.
re 87 we had some dicusssion a few months ago whether betting losses were recoevrable in law, and I can’t remember what the answer was. If not still, does this mean that they occasionally even now have to send the boys round?
@101:
Isn’t it rather unfair to ask her to try to convert you to the BNP without being allowed to mention their most popular policy?
The BNP and the Green Party are like the eggy farts that squeak out of democracy’s anus. Unpleasant to be around, but necessary to avoid painful buildup and eventual prolapse.
110. They are now recoverable by law. Before last year they weren’t.
111 - Er, the BNP and the Green Party?! Right…
111 Beautiful imagery. Giving our resident writer a run for his money.
111. The Green Party may be a bit loony, but you can’t compare them in nastiness to the BNP.
While driving to meeting today I listened into 5 Live discussion on house prices. The advice from all the experts was basically don’t sell unless you have to, but more importantly, don’t buy in a market with falling prices.
So with advice not to buy until house prices settle what does Gordon announce?
“I am determined that we will provide a range of options so that people wanting to get their first rung on the housing ladder will get the chance through shared equity or other measures that we are going to take.
“We are expanding a number of these schemes today to make it possible for more people to get into housing in this way.
“I am determined to be on the side of house buyers and home buyers when we come through what are difficult times around the world for the world economy”
and Caroline Flint announced government plans to offer £1500 help to first time home buyers on low-incomes.
111. That’s the first time I’ve ever heard the BNP being compared to an eggy-fart. Hats off to you sir
@115:
You clearly didn’t read their “agenda for sustainable living”.
The Green Party propose giving communities the power to exclude immigrants from areas if they are of disproportionate economic power, and rather more shockingly, “culturally disruptive”.
Even the BNP havenn’t suggested anything quite as unpleasantly racist as that little Green Party gem.
Also, most of their welfare and employment policies are very, VERY similar.
The Green Party is merely the BNP after a few monster bong hits.
115. Didn’t they used to propose reducing the UK population by 40 million or something? What ‘non-nasty’ approach were they planning to achieve that?
116 - notwithstanding the taxes and costs of house sales, it seems unlikely that “don’t buy” and “don’t sell” are simultaneously good strategies in most markets…
119 - By feeding us all on lentils until we die of starvation?
90 Harry And just as bad is that he takes the markets for a mug.
If he wants to get interest rates down without disaster he should have cut spending or increased taxes more or both. That would have been deflationary and left room for interest rates to be lowered to boost economic activity.
Instead, if the MPC lowers rates and the government deficit increases even as forecast inflationary pressures will be embedded into the economy, and made worse by imported inflation caused by a water weak pound.
When will these politicians learn that there is no quick fix painless solution. Dithering now and opting for hope over experience means the pain will be a lot worse in the end.
116 - The £1500 is funded by £3million of government cash so doing the maths on that it boils down to 2000 people. The word ‘gimmick’ springs to mind, heaven forfend!
118 - And in the real world actual Green Party policy states:
“Migration policies should not discriminate directly on grounds of race, colour, religion, political belief, disability, sex or sexual orientation.”
In fact, where does the phrase “culturally disruptive” (which you have put in quotes) come from? Your imagination?
120 Aaron - quite right I should have put in more detail. Don’t sell advice was if you had purchased a house recently and still had a large outstanding mortgage as unlikely you would get a capital gain in falling market and new mortgage would be on worse terms.
Don’t buy advice was that, unless you had an obvious good deal, wait as house prices looked like falling further - why buy just of the peak of the market? Wait until nearer the trough.
Can understand on a macro level why government wants to stimulate first time buyers, it would slow down any correction with additional demand (the hoped for soft landing) but on an individual basis it doesn’t make sense.
@125:
The exact words from the Green Party’s Agenda for Sustainable Living:
“”"Communities and regions should have the right to restrict inward migration when one or more of the following conditions are satisfied: [11]
a) The ecology of the recipient area would be significantly adversely affected by in-comers to the detriment of the wider community (eg. National Parks, Antarctica).
b) The recipient area is owned or controlled by indigenous peoples (eg Australian aboriginal people) whose traditional lifestyle would be adversely affected by in-comers.
c) The prospective migrants have, on average, equal or greater economic power than the residents of the recipient area and they or their families were not forced to leave the area in the recent past.”
“Regions or communities must have the right to reject specific individuals on grounds of public safety” [12].”"
http://www.greenparty.org.uk/files/conference/2007/Final_Agenda_Autumn07.pdf
They’ve gone far beyond what the BNP have ever suggested here.
119 - I think the Greens like a one-child policy rather like those freedom loving Chinese.
Re: Operation Black Vote - is there not also a large sum spent on getting young people to vote? Would this money therefore be being spent in an ageist way?
@125:
Also, some other gems you will find in The Green National Party’s autumn agenda are:
* Stop people from inner cities moving to the countryside to protect traditional lifestyles
* Grant British citizenship only to children born here
* Boycott food grown by black farmers and subsidise crops grown by whites
* Restrict tourism and immigration from outside Europe
* Require State approval for national sports teams to compete overseas
* Disconnect Britain from the European electricity grid
129- “Disconnect Britain from the European electricity grid”
WFT?
The PHI site looks interesting. Who are the 100 “experts”?
Contrary to Mike and (seemingly) Dr. Nick Palmer’s injunctions against “averaging”, there is evidence as well as theory which contradicts them….
In 2004, a method called “Pollyvote” averaged polls, electronic markets, expert opinion, and quantitive methods to predict Bush as the election winner, and got his share of the vote spot on.
http://www.uwf.edu/govt/facultyforums/documents/PollyvoteApplyingComboPrinciple_000.pdf
More on poll averaging and “combined” forecasts.
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/Jones-Variation%20in%20Poll%20Results.pdf
http://forecastingprinciples.com/Political/index.html
Pollyvote currently predicting a poor Republican result in November
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/
127 - If you think the policy is more anti-immigrant than the BNP then I really dont think you’ve understood it properly.
128 - FFS - is it make up a fake Green policy day? No, there is no Chinese-style one child policy but feel free to make stuff up.
(The actual policy states:
P106 The Green Party holds that the number of children people have should be a matter of free choice.)
130- Sorry, that should say “WTF”!
British electricity for British workers!
@132:
It doesn’t really matter what the rationale is, the net effect is that the Green Party have the most actively racist policies of any UK political party.
119. I’m guessing if they ever had such a policy it would be based on persuading people that it’s nice to have less children.
129 - You’ll excuse me if I dont really believe any of this without a little linky.
134 - You havent yet pointed to a single racist policy that the Green Party has.
Anyway, the site is called politicalbetting.com not whichpartyismostracist.com so it’s probably worth dropping now.
133 - Hear hear, we don’t want their funny metric electricity here.
134. It means local communities (i.e. small towns or boroughs) have the right to restrict migration on an absolute level, but they can not restrict migration to certain racial groups.
We might disagree with it, but it’s hard to say it’s racist.
On the green party, this might be somewhat illuminating
http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/2008/02/vote_green_go_b.html
@132:
The Chinese One-Child policy is a matter of free choice too.
And it’s the Communist Party of China’s free choice to tax you more and cut off your benefits when you fail to comply.
It’s still a free choice.
137 LOL
@139:
Aye, that’s what I was quoting @129. It’s all in the agenda document I linked earlier, although it’s a braver man than I will voluntarily fisk Green Party literature.
140. I think you’ll find that having more than one child in certain areas of China is actually against the law.
Gordon doing his best to stimulate the high street sales..
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/04/another-tantalising-rumour-about-the-prime-minister/
137. Watt do you mean by that?
142 - Where is it in the agenda document?
@143:
According to Wikipedia, “Additional children will result in large fines: families violating the policy are required to pay monetary penalties and might be denied bonuses at their workplace.”
Not actually a criminal offence though, because, as the Greens say, it’s a free choice.
@146:
http://www.greenparty.org.uk/files/conference/2007/Final_Agenda_Autumn07.pdf
I understand the Greens used to believe in a national wage. That is everybody being paid exactly the same. I trust this is no longer the case.
I voted Green in 1989 in the Euros - purely as a protest. As it was FPTP I knew very well there was no danger of my vote electing a Green.
On election night, I got so angry with Sara bloody Parkin tearfully bemoaning the electoral system saying that under PR they would have got X MEPs.
For the only time in my life I was glad it was FPTP. I’d never have voted for them under PR.
147. Yes, they have to pay fines for breaking the law. Would you suggest breaking the speed limit in the UK is not against the law?
148 - I actually meant the parts of it which backed up your all or any of your ridiculous claims but I take it from your refusal / inability to do so that you cant. It’s not worth pursuing any further.
149 - I’m sure you do understand that. I bet it’s as reliable as your 1-child claim.
Enough with the make-up-your-own-controversial-Green-Party-policy day already.
138. It could be institutionally racist.
@150:
No, I wouldn’t. But I’d also suggest that government can fine you for things that aren’t criminal offences.
The presence of fines doesn’t indicate that it’s a criminal offence.
@151:
Well, fortunately, you don’t have to take our word for it. You can read the agenda in all its lunatic glory, and see that the Greens are by now the most racist party in UK politics.
The BNP won’t be contesting, after all, because they’re not racist, oh no.
149. Wasn’t that national wage supposed to be paid to children as well? Bit of a conflict there with the population policies, oh dear…
WRT OBV, I agree it is wrong that a taxpayer-funded body should campaign against a political party. But then OBV have campaigned for Lee Jasper and against Boris Johnson, and I really don’t know why Johnson is giving them the time of day.
A future Conservative government shouldn’t give them a penny of public funding.
@152: I presume that Neil is one of those well-meaning trendies that supports the Greens out of some misplaced belief it’ll get him more sex or something.
Those sort are always especially distressed when they find out what they’ve actually been voting for.
I repeat:
“b) The recipient area is owned or controlled by indigenous peoples whose traditional lifestyle would be adversely affected by in-comers.
c) The prospective migrants have, on average, equal or greater economic power than the residents of the recipient area and they or their families were not forced to leave the area in the recent past.”
Which is to say, poor Muslims areas should be able to keep out the Middle Class whities, White areas should be able to get rid of those troublesome blacks adversely affecting their traditional lifestyle, and we’ll all be blissfully happy in our tidal-powered arcologies deep within the monoracial bosom of mother Gaia. Or something.
29 philip thompson
if at anytime you feel uncomfortable with your “position” in the seats’ market cut and run. this is rule one of trading!
test
35 - Stephan Shakespeare was also failed Tory candidate in the (then) Cambridge Ward by-election in Kingston upon Thames in 2000.
156. Just to play Devils’ Advocate, aren’t all the main political parties funded by the taxpayer to campaign against each other?
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2233338482
What a great Facebook group lol
“Hillary Clinton: Stop Running for President and Make Me a Sandwich”
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/04/the-figures-that-gordon-brown-and-alistair-darling-dont-want-you-to-see/
“The problem is that last time around - nearly 20 years ago - employment did not go into meltdown until nearly a year after house prices started to fall.
The housing market peaked in 1989. Employment kept on rising and peaked in April 1990. Before dropping like a stone.”
163. Claimant count unemployment only fell by 2.8k last month. Look at the graph and you can see there is an excellent chance it will rise either next month or the month after. The rise probably won’t be very big, but it’ll make for another grim headline…
OT:
A nice link here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7336086.stm
Old Tory election posters.
Look at the last one. Recognise the face in the bottom right?
@165:
He should definitely bring that tache back.
161 Up to a point, although I expect they all receive much more private fun