Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
April 11th, 2008
Countdown to May 1st - The Unitaries and the Shadows
A total of 338 Seats will be contested in 19 Unitary Authorities on May 1st. In addition, elections will be held for four new Shadow Unitary Authorities, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Northumberland, and Durham, which will replace the existing County and District Councils, next year. A total of 346 seats are being contested in these new authorities.
Blackburn with Darwen, currently under No Overall Control, will remain that way. Labour are the largest party, but currently in opposition to a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition. Derby will also remain under No Overall Control, although, unusually, this has a Labour/Conservative administration. Halton will remain Labour. Hartlepool is currently run by an independent Mayor. No party has an overall majority and that will most likely remain the case after May 1st. Kingston upon Hull currently has a Liberal Democrat majority of just one seat, but they should increase this. Milton Keynes will remain under No Overall Control, with the Liberal Democrats remaining, just, the largest party, as will North East Lincolnshire. Ominously for Labour, in the latter, they are a very poor third, despite holding the Parliamentary seat. Peterborough will remain safely Conservative. Labour now have just two councillors left on an authority which they held until 1999. Plymouth will remain Conservative, particularly as UKIP, who polled quite strongly in local elections here, have disintegrated locally. Portsmouth offers the Liberal Democrats their best chance of a gain. They are just one seat short of a majority in that authority, and will be very disappointed if they can’t take it.
Reading, the last authority of any size still held by Labour in Southern England, is almost certain to go to be lost to No Overall Control. Labour have done very well to hold it so long, but their luck is sure to run out this year. By way of consolation, they have a good chance of gaining Slough, where they are just two seats short. Since there will be a double contest in a ward where a Conservative was convicted of electoral fraud, they should have no difficulty getting those two seats. Southampton should see the Conservatives become the largest single party, although without an overall majority. Southend on Sea will remain Conservative, although independents are starting to challenge strongly. Stoke on Trent has a Labour Mayor, but with no party having an overall majority on the council. Politics here used to be entirely predictable – with the council held by Labour for over eighty years (with a brief break in the late Sixties). Indeed, in 1997, Labour won 60 seats out of 60. But now, a strong local BNP, and a whole array of independents make this one of the most unpredictable councils in the country. Swindon will remain solidly Conservative. Thurrock would have given Labour an excellent chance of a gain, but I think the party’s unpopularity will prevent them from winning it back. Strong support for the BNP, who won a quarter of the vote last year, makes this hard to predict. Warrington will remain under Liberal Democrat control, and Wokingham, under Conservative control.
Northumberland will almost certainly go to No Overall Control, possibly with the Liberal Democrats as the largest party. Durham will plainly be won by Labour, although independents may well poll very strongly. And if the Conservatives really are doing as well as some current polls suggest, they ought to gain both the new authorities in Cheshire.
There were only two by-elections last night.
Herefordshire Unitary Authority, Old Gore. Conservative 422, Independent 401, Lib Dem 241, Green 49. A narrow Conservative hold in a marginal seat, with a turnout of 46%.
North East Derbyshire District Council, Holmwood & Heath. Lib Dem 382, Labour 356, Conservative 165. Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. This seat had been left uncontested for many years, and plainly Labour were nothing like as strong here as their opponents believed.
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Sean, would you care to summarise the above into predicted Councils won/lost and seats won/lost for each party for us?
Will save us a lot of work!!
Thanks.
It’s hard to say wrt Cheshire, given that several authorities are being abolished. If the Conservatives win both, that’s one extra principal authority in place of the County Council, I suppose. If Labour lose Northumberland, that’s one fewer for them.
Very little changes in the Unitaries, as they elect by thirds, but my prediction can be summarised as one gain, one loss, for Labour, one gain for the Lib Dems, and no change for the Conservative.
2. Hmm.. won’t be spun well in the media if the Conservatives gain NO net councils!
Can you quickly estimate your prediction of Conservative net gain IN SEATS please?
What are we talking about here…. 50, 75, 100???
2. Also, outside bet, So’ton is 18 C 18 LD 18 Lab - is it not?
So +9 Conservative gains would be needed for an overall majority?
Trouble is, if it’s by thirds, I think the Conservatives would have to win virtually every single seat up for election this year for that to happen.
OT if anyone is interested as there’s a bet on Italian elections turnout.
Italians abroad turnout (they finished to vote yesterday at 4 PM local time) is 41.66%. Last time it was 42.07%.
Excluding the Shadow Unitaries, I’d be surprised if the Conservatives gained more than 20 seats, net, in the unitaries.
18:18:12. Very much a long-shot.
Surprised to see your prediction for Labour in Durham, Sean. I thought that the Tories and Lib Dems were also getting their act together there, as well as the Independents.
5. How is it looking for Berlusconi? Are our bets safe?
6. That’s very disappointing.
272. A problem with Hispanics in Texas is many of them aren’t US citizens so they can’t vote. There was one poll which showed Obama close to McCain, but I think pastorgate would hurt him a lot among Southern whites, and a double ethnic ticket might hurt him further. Morus mentioned a Ron Paul run (doubt it’ll happen) although a double whammy from both the Libertarians and an Evangelical run could hurt McCain there a lot. I’d give it about 6 to 1.
4. Southampton Council NOC Con 18 Lab 18 LibDem 11 Ind 1
(It was 16/16/16 two years ago).
G - I responded to you on the last thread. Apologies to Sean for going O/T so early.
272 - Obama-Richardson to take Texas? Not sure they could manage it - massive turnout by both African-Americans and Hispanics coul make it close, but if they managed 47-49% I’d say that was a very good result in Texas.
There aren’t as many tight Congressional races in Texas, tight races being something I expect to give an Obama ticket the edge in a lot of places. No activity means business as usual, and that will make it harder to see Texas go any more Democratic than it did in 2006.
I would be surprised if John Cornyn lost the Senate race - even having been pretty mediocre in his first term, he is significantly better funded than Rick Noriega, and whilst the Dems will hold the 23rd District, I think Cornyn’s former CoS will retake the 22nd in South Houston.
I think Obama-Richardson is the best ticket going, but unless Ron Paul runs the campaign of his life (a GOP Nader), I can’t see the Dems taking Texas without burning a lot of money that could be better spent elsewhere.
I’d say no better than a 3/1 shot, probably closer to 4/1.
by Morus April 11th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
7. Thanks.
Sorry to be a pest Sean, but are you saying that - mathematically - So’ton is an outside possibility?
What sort of wards and majorities would have to fall to the Conservatives for a result of (say) 25:15:8 to happen?
You say Warrington will remain Liberal Democrat, I live here and was under the impression the Council was NOC with a Lib-Dem & Conservative coalition.
9. Simply, so few seats are being contested.
Reports circulating that memos have been leaked indicating “harsh interrogation” techniques (e.g. limited drowning methods, stress positions, extreme sleep deprivation etc) were OK’d from Cheney and Rice.
9. IMO things have not changed by much in the last 2 weeks since opinion polls were banned. But you never know those days.
It’s raining a lot here near Milan..not sure the implication on turnout: if it’s sunny, people go to the seaside and don’t vote; if it’s rainy, people stay at home. So I guess people who want to vote will vote, those who don’t care won’t.
14. Whoops, you’re absolutely right. I was sure it was Lib Dem, but they’re just short. In which case, it’s a likely Lib Dem gain.
There are two parliamentary seats covering NE Lincs council: Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. Both Labour held so your point remains. It is possible that the Lib Dems could take overall control there.
17. Thanks Andrea.
Which political wing does low-turnout favour in Italy? The right (as in Britain) or the left?
Or no difference?
18. Sean - do you have an answer to 13?
20 - It is somewhat of a myth to suggest that low turnout favours one side or another. If low turnout was so favourable to the right in Britain then how do you explain 2001 and 2005?
20. In recent past it was thought to have favoured the left…however it may have something to do with Silvio being in the government (so low turnout would have favoured the left as opposition and not the left in general).
22. No it isn’t James. Low turnout does favour the Conservatives in the UK, because Conservative supporters (namely older voters) are much more likely to turn out and vote - this affects the result over an unweighted turnout sample.
Have you read any of Mikes posts on this?
If ICM and MORI didn’t weight for differential turnout, the Conservatives would barely be in the lead and Labour would have led for most of the last 3 years.
22. And if turnout had been 100% in 2001 and 2005 the Conservatives would have been absolutely slaughtered.
23 Andrea - Sono molto lieto che mi sono ricordato di votare prima della data di chiusura.
26. I love it when you talk dirty.
Thursday 10th April 2008.
Herefordshire UA, Old Gore
Con 422 (37.9; -8.1), Ind 401 (36.0; -1.8), LD Josephine Lane 241 (21.7; +5.4), Green 49 (4.4; +4.4).
Majority 21. Turnout 46%. Con hold. (Percentage change since May 2007).
North East Derbyshire DC, Holmewood and Heath
LD Jan Robinson 382 (42.3), Lab 356 (39.4), Con 165 (18.3).
Majority 26. Turnout 25.6%. LD gain from Lab. (Lab x2 unopposed in May 2007).
re 22. 2001 and 2005 would have been even worse for the Tories without the low turnout.
The latest MORI London poll had a 7% Ken lead without the turnout filter being used. Once that was done it dropped to just 1%.
MORI always give both sets of figures and I feel confident in saying that with each and every poll Labour’s position is made worse by the turnout filter.
21 Looking at the individual wards, 2 Labour seats look very vulnerable to the Conservatives, and 2 more look as though they could fall in an utterly diastrous year for the Party (by which I mean much worse than 2006 or 2007). 2 others are rock solid Labour, and one is vulnerable to the Lib Dems. No Lib Dem seats appear vulnerable to the Conservatives (although four are being contested).
28. Actually, Mike, if turnout had been 100% since WWII, would the Tories have actually WON any of the post-war elections??
26.
But did they get your vote in time or the Royal Mail is too slow?
24, 28 partly offset, though, by the fact that the worst turnout among Labour supporters is in safe Labour seats.
29. Cheers Sean. Appreciate it.
So, that means +4 Con gains at most. Con-22 Lab-14 Libs-11 & Ind-1.
Now I feel all deflated
24 http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/turnout.htm
In last 50 years since 1959 election, 7 Labour victories on falling turnout v 4 Conservative & 4 Conservative victories v 1 Labour on rising turnout. Looks like Labour do better on falling turnouts to me.
Turnout fell in 1945 against previous election = Labour victory
Turnout fell in 1951 = Conservative victory
Turnout fell in 1955 = Conservative victory
urnout fell in 1964 = Labour victory
Turnout fell in 1966 = Labour victory
Turnout fell in 1970 = Conservative victory
Turnout fell in October 1974 = Labour victory
Turnout fell in 1983 = Conservative victory
Turnout fell in 1997 = Labour victory
Turnout fell in 2001 = Labour victory
Turnout fell in 2005 = Labour victory
Turnout rose in 1959 = Conservative victory
Turnout rose in Feb 74 = Labour victory
Turnout rose in 1979 = Conservative victory
Turnout rose in 1987 = Conservative victory
Turnout rose in 1992 = Conservative victory
A friend living near Turin told me this morning that Silvio’s latest exploit was inviting a journalist to smell his hand and when he reluctantly did so informing the hapless hack that this was “the odour of sanctity”. No one else could offend both Catholic and Lay opinion in one effortless act. If he wins it could be amusing (if you have a warped sense of humour) but incidents of this sort probably show that he is over-confident of winning and may have already shot himself in the foot.
34. Not sure you can say that without making an estimate of how the positions would have compared if *ALL* voters had turned out in each of those elections.
For example, Labour would have probably won even more seats in 1997, 2001 and 2005 - and the Conservatives might not have gained a majority in 1992, or 1970 - had turnout been 100%.
Actually, now I think about it, turnout was very high (80%+) up into the early 60s, so it might have not made much difference up to that point, but post 1970 I am confident it has.
34. But turnout rose in 2005, didn’t it?
New Temple University Institute for Public Affairs Poll for Pennsylvania :
Clinton 47% .. Obama 41%
http://www.temple.edu/newsroom/2007_2008/04/stories/Templepoll_Pennsylvania.htm
37.And the Conservatives made very modest gains.
Sean, Thanks as always, but don’t you think that you are low-balling the Conservative gains a bit? I imagine that the shadow authority results will be made a great deal of- and I would have thought S’hampton would be more likely than you suggest. If I didn’t know you better I might suggest that you were damping down expectations a bit…
37. Yes, probably because of the magical mystery postal votes, which turn some wards from 19% turout to 85% turnout. All very proper you know, no community leaders involved, no fake ballot boxes, nothing like that, oh no.
Does anybody have a quick link to a table showing the aggregate shares for the parties in London at the 2005 general election? My normal one doesn’t seem to work.
Cheers
re 34 what about the 1950 election - in any case Feb 74 was a Tory victory.
i agree with Sean’s estimate of 4 max gains for Conservatives in Southampton , they had a good result last year but for some reason a very poor one in 2006 when they actually went backwards .
Portsmouth will be very much harder than it looks at first glance for the LibDems to take overall control as they are defending 8 seats this year out of the 14 up for election .
North East Lincs needs 3 LibDem gains for overall control , I think they will be 1 short but they should exceed the 2 required to take control of Warrington .
40. Not the Sean Fear I know. Sean is scrupulously honest. And I think his analysis is sound.
Sean is still predicting a narrow Boris win 52%-48% by the way - surely if he wanted to damp down expectations, he’d say it’s neck-and-neck?
No. Sean isn’t interested in spin.
a party winning on lower turnout does not prove that lower turnout favours that party.
40 - Cicero - are you expecting more Conservative gains then?
Personally, I’d be amazed if the Conservatives won control of West Cheshire. Though I’d think they were underperforming not to win East.
As an aside, must we really call it ‘City of Chester and Cheshire West’? How pointlessly cumbersome. I can’t imagine that there was THAT much opposition from anywhere to simply calling it ‘Chester’ or ‘West Cheshire’.
Zim: Mugabe will not now go to Lusaka. Tsvangirai probably will. Level of violence has been increased- very frightened people in Harare.
Many thanks Sean.
As a rough estimate, what pecentage share of the national vote will we see at these local elections?
47 - How about ‘Greater Chester’?
42. Mike, I’ve got: Con 31.9 Lab 38.9 LD 21.9 Oth 7.3
(Can’t provide a link to a table. These figures are from a spreadsheet I maintain; the data will have come from somewhere on the web three years ago…)
46.I always think it indicates that there is no viable alternative in the minds of the voters….
Give them a real contest and the voters will turn out, I think that was the case in 92′.
43 Turnout rose in 1950 - 85% and a Labour victory. 1974 February Labour won most seats (Tories would have if Ulster Unionists had still taken the Tory whip).
Agree 2005 saw a rise & Labour victory.
42. Mike
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/vote2005/html/region_3.stm
40 It will be interesting to see how the parties spin/interpret the shadow results into gains/losses . Of course as they are new authorities there will be in fact be no gains or losses . The Durham results can be directly compared with the 2005 County Council results as there is 1 new councillor per ward as before . Northumberland with 2 councillors per ward and the 2 Cheshire Councils with 3 per ward are not so easy as some wards will no doubt have split representation .
42 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_3.stm
40 Southampton could theoretically be won outright, (and the Conservatives should definitely become largest party) but it’s v. unlikely.
45 Thanks.
47 I think Chester & West Cheshire will be tough, but the Conservatives really do need to take it.
49. I think something like (in national equivalent terms) Con 42%, Lib Dem 25%, Lab 24%.
re 42 Mike from David Boothroyd’s site
Lab 4125095
C 2876099
L Dem 1648444
GP 141692
UKIP 83578
RP 68925
BNP 51886
RU 41323
Ind 25993
Lab (Ind) 23748
S Lab P 19952
re 57 oops silly me - that’s the aggregate for the last 3 elections
52. that may sometimes be the case, but I think a lot of the time realistically, turnout is more likely to affect the size of a victory than who wins.
Saying that Labour would always win on 100% turnout may well be true - but we never have 100% turnout so it is irrelevant.
Saying that lower turnouts tend to help the Conservatives, may well be true, but they would still have lost with Hague/Howard/IDS at the helm if the national turnout had been in single figures.
re 54. Thanks Andrea & Chris..
[47] Under the current circs, yes I probably would expect more from the Tories and a bit less for the Lib Dems than Sean seems to suggest- I would be pretty chuffed with results anything like he suggests.
I agree about names: Hereford and South Herefordshire also seems rather needlessly overlong too. Yet it is still Scotland that holds the records for this sort of thing: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey are in fact only three constituencies, not ten.
56 WOW, really, you actually think Labour will come in behind the Lib-Dem’s? If that does happen, surely it’ll be an umitigated disaster for Brown, however things shake out in terms of seats and councils. I mean, to come last in his first electoral test, thats not good, is it?
55. still worth spinning that it is a fantastic result whatever happens, then easier to manage expectations next time round.
1 Generally agree with your analysis Sean. On seats would see Labour losing 38 ,Cons gaining 31,lib dems 7.
Councils -Hartlepool,Lab to Noc(I believe current seats are labour 24 ,all other parties 23),Reading labour to NOC,Warrington NOC to Lib dem,Thurrock NOC to Con. I dont think lib dems willwin Portsmouth ans in fact would expect the Tories to gain a couple of seats,
Rogerh
10. 12. From a tactical point of view for Obama, is Richardson worth that slim chance? Although the Dems will not take Texas, forcing McCain to pander to the base and spend his limited funds in Texas must be worth something?
I agree with Morus that Richardson is the best candidate in terms of merit, he has foreign policy, domestic and executive experience. But I think a joint black-hispanic ticket would alienate and be too “other” for a lot of voters.
62. Lab was behind LDs in 2004 locals too IIRC
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/apr/07/localgovernment.localgovernment
A piece in this week’s Guardian on the situation on in Reading
http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/s/2025569_cameron_we_are_ready_to_take_over
David Cameron in the local press on certainty to win.
(Very well promising to build that third bridge when it’s the Oxfordshire Conservatives across the river that have been stopping it!)
Here’s the 2005
Lab 1122761
C 927023
L Dem 634952
GP 77977
UKIP 42153
RU 40735
BNP 14109
Ind 8828
NF 3952
VP 3580
CPA 2254
RA 1950
SP 1469
EDP 1437
Rainbow 1289
S Lab P 1206
Ind C 983
PPP 685
MRLP 630
WRP 621
TW 382
L 313
SPGB 240
CPB 200
Ind Lab 91
PDP 56
CL 38
61 Labour only won 131 Unitary seats in 2004. Even a loss of 20 to the Conservatives would be a severe blow. It’s just that this year, there are two Unitaries coming up where the Lib Dems are just short of taking control, while there are none where the Conservatives are close to taking control.
62 It happened in 2004.
Southend could be a Conservative loss to NOC.
If last year’s results were replicated this year, they would be down to the Mayor’s casting vote. They only need one additional loss to lose overall control.
64 Hartlepool has an independent Mayor, so it’s effectively NOC at the moment. Thurrock is a special case, because of the big BNP vote.
70 Could be, but unlikely, I think.
61.The problem for large constituencies like Inverness etc is that they cover both urban and rural, I think that the name tries to incorporate the identity of the different area’s in the name.
Parliament’s own ‘bible’ of the 2005 result..
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2005/rp05-033.pdf
London’s on page 25. Lots of useful stats.
Pudsey is just Pudsey when arguably its not even the largest town the Constituency. If it were Welsh or Scottish it would be at least
“Pudsey, Horsforth and Airebourgh”.
A more utilitarian reading would have it as Leeds West and the current Leeds West as Leeds South West.
Ho Hum.
Yeah, I remember Labour came last in 2004, but that was at the absolute height of the anger and national outcry over Iraq, with a PM that was seriously stepping down at the time, a PM that had been in power for 7 years already. It was an extraordinary election from that POV.
The differance here is that Brown has only been in power for 9 months, doesn’t have a seriously divisive issue like Iraq hanging over his head and, in theory, should still be on honeymoon.
I don’t know, if the vote shares do play out like Sean suggests I can’t see how Gordon Brown could put a positive gloss on it? I guess we’ll hear a lot about how the Tories aren’t reaching Labour 1995 levels, but really that’ll be about the only positive Brown can take out of it.
Sean, why would Durham “PLAINLY be won by Labour?”
I used to live there and am baffled by that remark.
62 In actual votes Labour are not likely to come below the LibDems , the elections being fought this year are mostly in Labour’s strongest areas . The actual vote shares in 2004 were Con 32.1% Lab 28.4% LibDem 25.3% Others 14.2% which were translated into a notional national vote share of Con 37% Lab 26% LibDem 27% Others 10% so Labour were below the LibDems in 2004 on the notional figures .
76 - Labours spin lines on election night will probably be of the order of.
1. Governments always take a mid term kicking
2. The Tories aren’t making the kind of gains that we did in the mid 90’s
3. Come a General Election people will vote Labour for low mortgage rates, low inflation, prosperity, schools’n'ospitals etc
78. Who and earth would get off the sofa and go and register their support for this government ? If they only got 28.4% 4yrs ago they are looking at <25% this time around - MAXIMUM.
65 - Weigh that subset of voters who would vote for Obama-white person, but wouldn’t vote for Obama-Hispanic or Obama-woman. If the inconsistant not-quite-unracists ourweigh boosted turnout of Hispanics or Women, then I take your point.
If it’s not Richardson or Sebellius, I can only imagine Tim Kaine. Interesting that Obama seems to be saying he wants a VP to fill the gaps in his expertise, but that would not be foreign policy. Could be he will take Health and Education and Foreign Affairs, and let the VP bang the drum on the Economy and Immigration - border state fiscal conservative might be better in that case.
Problem with Tim Kaine is that if McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty, then the next VPOTUS will be called Tim, and Martin Amis has already explained that no-one called Tim can ever aspire to greatness…
The new Duraham Unitary will be the whole county. It would be frankly astonishing if Labour didn’t get a majority. The only thing that might trigger such an earth quake would be the whole imposition of the Unitary in the first place. Losing County Durahm would be as big a story as losing the rhondda in 1999
59.I think that higher turnout tends to indicate a close contest, whereas a lower turnout often means that the outcome is predictable for the incumbant.
Don’t we find that turnout in marginal seats is higher than in seats where the party rosette never changes colour?
Re 76. Of course, how the whole night is reported next day will depend heavily on what happens in London. Thats where most of the press attention will be. If Ken gets through it’ll be reported that Labour have done better than expected, even if they come last in the national local elections. However, if Boris gets through and Labour come last, then it’s difficult to comprehend how gloomy the headlines will be for Brown.
If I was a Number 10 typist, I think I’d book the first week of May off, just in case!
77. Does the Durham unitary cover the whole county? If so, I really can’t see it being anything other than Labour. The Lib Dems have a good base in the city, but if Labour can’t take most of what lies beyond that, it really will be a dreadful night for them.
78 - They may be Labour’s strongest areas but Labour are in a downswing period and may or may not have hit bottom. I suspect that they may be a nose in front of the LibDems and remember that the LibDems are defending quite a high base at these elections too so could be in line for a disappointing night.
77 and 85 Yes, the whole of *County* Durham (on current boundaries, not traditional boundaries). The Lib Dems should get most of the wards in Durham City, and do well in Weardale, the Tories should win Teesdale, and independents do well in Sedgefield, and Derwentside, but, overall, it would be dreadful if Labour couldn’t win this.
3 by elections pending in NE Derbyshire - Unstone has been pending for months. maybe someone will call them now ….
80 I have confirmed our wager to PTP re Labour vote share in the locals , I would be grateful if you could do the same .
79. What did Labour achieve in 1995? It was close to 50% of the vote, wasn’t it?
Southampton will remain noc, the tories were in until feb this year where the liberals and labour formed a pact. the first thing they did was to introducea charge for residents parking. the pact will not survice
cons to take 4 includeing the labour leader
90 The notional 1995 figures were Lab 47 Con 25 LibDem 23
44. I agree with Mark that it will be very tough for us to win control of Portsmouth this year as we are defending 7 seat of the 14 (the eighth was won by us but the current councillor, who is not defending, has since become an independent). For the Lib Dems to get a majority therefore everything has to go right & that is something that can’t be predicted with any certainty. Labour will end up with (overall) a minimum of +-0 to a maximum of +1, Conservatives min. -1 to max. +4, Lib Dem min. -2 to max. +3. Anything in between that could happen, it really is too hard to call.
[73] Inverness is an former county as well as the new (2001) city. The Constituency boundary includes the old county of Nairn while Badenoch which was in old Invernesshire also includes the Cromdale district which was in old Morayshire. On the other hand there is a better precedent for a short name, instead of Formartine, Garioch, Ythanside and Stathbogie, the name Gordon was invented to cover it…
92. Thanks Mark. I remember it well. At that time, it really did seem to me like the Tories were not going to survivie the New Labour onslaught (remember, the 2000 seats the Conservatives lost in 1995 was already from a pretty low base) I honestly thought their days as a political fighting force were numbered, something that wasn’t reslved until they started making slow but steady gain at local level from 2000 onwards.
89. Happy to - whats the process ? (I’m a novice)
96 You need just to send Peter an Email his addy is arklebar@talktalk.net many thanks .
I have always liked Westmorland and Lonsdale. One in the eye to a previous boundry committee who abolished Westmorland and merged it with Cumberland to form “Cumbria” County Council. While Cumbria is a historic term its geographic rather than cultural.
[98] Yes- most of the old Counties had a certain sparkle and so South Holland and the Deepings always struck me as a nice name..
Btw, if anyone thinks that Boris will lose, there is value in selling his price on SPIN at 19.
Go on, you doubters put your money where your mouth is.
98. Strictly speaking that is wrong as ‘Cumbria’ refers to the ‘celtic’ or ‘Cymbric’ cultural identity of that region in the Dark Ages. The counties of Cumberland and Westmorland, although they developed their own identities later on, are arguably more geographic concepts than Cumbria.
That said, the creation of Cumbria CC was a strange and unjustified decision, as was the creation of Humberside, Avon and all the other idiocies of Heath’s local government reform - which must surely be in the running for the title of the most misconceived piece of legislation in the last century…
100 I am laying Boris at the moment on Betfair at 1.62 , noone who thinks he will win wants to take it .
101 thats fair to an extent. there are some welsh sounding names in the lake district and of course the yan,tan, tethera sheep counting thing . I was refering to the 1500’s maps that had Cumbria on them for the lakes a bit like you’d say “The Dales”. Thank god even ruth kelly had sence and turned down the application for unitary status for the county. probably even worse than a unitary for the whole of County Durham.
I also miss “Whitehaven” an historic bourgh which became “Copeland” in 1974 after an obscure local forrest.
Interestingly the new boundries inexplicably put Keswick into the constituiency which might just make it winable for the Tories in a landslide year. I think I’m right insaying its not elected a Tory since 1929 but they got within 1100 votes in 1983.
Seeing your comments Sean when Labour held all 60 seats, on Stoke Council, how can democracy function when such results are achievable?
It obviously can’t, the AV system should be introduced for all local authority elections, then eventually for general elections.
95. As I recall the Conservatives managed to start their local government recovery in May 1997, a they were being destroyed in Westminster
104. Oh, don’t get me started - AV is no better than FPTP.
104. I thought AV made landslides bigger? All democratic systems make a wipeout a possibility, the ease of obtaining one varies though. it you want to avoid that sort of result surely straight list PR would be the system?
107. And I prefer STV to lists.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 43% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 51%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106480/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Over-Clinton-Persists.aspx
Latest Rasmussen Presidential Polls for Pennsylvania and Louisiana :
Pennsylvania -
McCain 38% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 39% .. Obama 47%
Louisiana -
McCain 58% .. Clinton 36%
McCain 53% .. Obama 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/louisiana/election_2008_louisiana_presidential_election
O/T, and I have to go out for the evening, but this is interesting:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/dorset/7343445.stm
According to an earlier report in the Grauniad, Government sources felt that Poole Council had used their legal powers appropriately. These are powers that Parliament had voted through to deal specifically with the terrorist threat.
Will the Tories specifically say that they will make Poole Council’s action unlawful? Or are they too really in favour of the State against the citizen?
111 sickening. they actually targeted the kids
111. Seeing as it was done under the auspices of a Tory council…
wasn’t there a recent case I read about where a Council used RIPA to telephone tap a fly tipping operation ? I’m still amazed at what we allowed through under the Civil Contingencies Act when i actually read it.
As a resident of neighbouring Bournemouth,I have seen local news reports,local media coverage.
It does seem that Poole Borough Council were legitmately concerned at someone potetntially ’swinging the lead’,to coin a phrase,to cheat their kid into a school.(FWIW,the family seem to be comfortably middle-class,articulate and would in any case have their kids go to a good school.I am NOt saying this with any class envy,or bitterness-I just feel this has ’storm in a teacup’ written all over it!
The problem of getting kids into schools, forget good schools, any schools in London is almost at crisis point. If you move into most of Inner London, the nearest school with a vacancy at primary level could be three miles away. Maybe acceptable in a semi rural area, but not in the middle of London. Parents do cheat their addresses. The claim that the children live with other family members, so it is only right that schools should be allowed to check up. However, I do think in the Poole case it was a bit over the top
Coming up on More4 at 8.30 is Jon Stewart’s Daily Show with the central piece being a long and very funny attack on Fox News by John Oliver - who is a Brit, from Bedford as it happens, and who used to be on Radio 4’s Political Animals.
He’s shortly to get his own show on Comedy Central
re 102. Mark - move it out to 2 and I’ll go in again.
117 Mike. For those who can’t get More4 or who can’t wait here’s a link to the clips :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/11/smackdown-the-emdaily-sho_n_96185.html
There was much heat (though little light) on pb.com recently about ‘comprehensive’ schools. It would be helpful if they were referred to by their American name of ‘neighbourhood schools’. It paints a clearer picture. (Similarly, ‘creditors’ and ‘debtors’ are much more confusing terms than ‘payables’ and ‘receivables’).
111 et al. Even if one does lie about school admissions, one is not, as far as I know, committing a criminal offence. So how can it be at all appropriate to use RIPA?
The Slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ edges under 10% :
http://www.slate.com/id/2188742/
105 Yes, they regained several County Councils.
95 The Conservative party did, I think, come quite close to ceasing to be a viable contender for power, though, had they done so, I’m sure some other right of centre party would have ultimately emerged. The Conservative recovery in local govt began before 2000 though. The Conservatives gained 250 seats in 1998 and 1400 in 1999.
94.I grew up in Strathspey and Badenoch, now living in Aberdeenshire I love some of the more unusual names. You could have had real fun with constituency names in the North East.
117/119 Mike, Jack W - you don’t have to wait on More4
There’s this great invention called the World Wide Web and the shows are posted on:
http://www.comedycentral.com/index.jhtml
re 125. I know Ted - but I like to watch things on the big screen not just my lap-top.
114. No, it didnt happen. Councils do not have the power to intercept telephone calls. It was a misleading article, by the Telegraph if i remember rightly.
103, it doesnt take a landslide to turn most of cumbria Blue, Carlisle will turn Blue, if the Tories win a majority….
126 Get yourself an Apple widescreen - not the same as HD TV but a pretty good replacement (size matters, so I’m told)
101. Yes, Cumbria CC is an abomination..
121. It’s fraud, isn’t it?
121 - If they have the legal power to use it then they will. It’s not a question of appropriateness. It is not those who use their legal power who are to blame if you think it is wrong. It is those who gave them that legal power.
Council officers can not be expected to let political opinions restrict the effectiveness of their performance in their jobs. Many may even actually personally disagree with many of the powers that they have at their disposal (or in another context the policies of their council). But, short of resigning, they have no choice but to ignore their personal opinions.
132 (con) - that is why the political make-up of Poole council (in this case) is irrelevant.
124. There’s some Buchan good names up there already.
Evening all
Re: 123 - I well remember both 1995 and 1996 local campaigns. I worked in Penwith in the far west of Cornwall. 1995 was a dreadful year for the Tories who lost over 2,000 seats in a single night. Yet, that night their group leader on Penwith DC comfortably held his seat in a straight fight with Labour. The LDs in Cornwall mainly took seats off the Independents and Labour.
By 1996 the Conservatives were struggling to find candidates for some Penwith wards but held two seats comfortably that year so they never slipped lower then three Councillors.
1997 was certainly a year of recovery and the 1993 disaster was reversed in places like Surrey, Kent and Essex. In Cornwall, the LDs narrowly lost control as both the Tories and Independents gained seats. In Menheniot, one Independent (later a Tory) took a seat by just two votes.
I never thought the Conservatives would disappear during that time. I do think they got to the edge of the cliff in October 2003 and saved themselves by ditching IDS in favour of Michael Howard. One could argue that, local elections notwithstanding, the real Tory revival began then.
132. People should be responsible for the decisions they themselves make. We all have the legal power to shout “fire” in a “crowded theatre,” If we use that power we should be responsible for it.
“Council officers can not be expected to let political opinions restrict the effectiveness of their performance in their jobs” - How different that would be if you had said MPs instead of Council officers, I think that all our elected officials including Council Officers should make sure principles such as Liberty effect their decisions and if being more effective it involves a compromise on this principles they should make sure it is justified.
134.You really need the accent to pronounce some of them correctly though.
Thoughts and comments on Derby anyone?
Battles being fought all over the place, Labour on the ropes, Lib Dems desperately trying to move out of thier strongholds with the Conservatives the strongest they’ve been for many years…
“People should be responsible for the decisions they themselves make. We all have the legal power to shout “fire” in a “crowded theatre”
No they don’t.
117. Very good. The nightmare of News Corp.
139. Don’t we?
Learn something new every day.
Substitute making offensive remarks.
What consequences do you foresee arising from making offensive remarks in a crowded theatre?
142. You’d ruin the play, for starters.
But you take my point about people taking their own responsibility for their actions? Just because you have the liberty to do something doesn’t mean you should do it.
IMO the major criticisms that can be made of many of the criminal justice “reforms” over the last decade and a bit, is not that they create a “Police State”, where the powers of the state can be employed to imprison any person who the state chooses, but that they create the conditions where a Govt could turn the country into one.
A Police State is not one where intrusive powers are used to catch people committing justifiably criminal acts.
143 - It is the consequences of someone’s actions that are the key. Using legal powers to catch someone committing criminal acts are not “consequences” that should dissuade one from using those powers.
The consequences of shouting “Fire” in a crowded theatre on the other hand, is.
137. My favourite Scottish placename is Gowkthrapple. It’s not far from Bonkle.
144. “A Police State is not one where intrusive powers are used to catch people committing justifiably criminal acts.”
It’s the ambiguity of “justifiably criminal” that is the problem. In the USSR owning a copy of “crime and punishment” was apparently a “justifiably criminal act”.
145. The end does not justify the means. The means used were disproportionate to the crime.
Secondly, i disagree with a purely consequentialist view of ethics, principles as well as consequences should dissuade you from committing an act.
147 - According to whom?
I’m not arguing that “neutral” officers of the state have carte blanche to do anything that is legal (although it may sound like it
). Nuremburg established that that is not a sustainable argument.
But cases like this one in respect to RIPA do not cross that line IMO. An argument that it was designed for terrorism, so should only be used for terrorism is not sustainable. It shouldn’t be used to keep elderly men out of Labour Party conferences, for sure, but this case does not fall into that category.
148 - It does not follow that everyone holds the same principles, or that your’s are superior and more valid than others. Ultimately neutral officers of the state must bottle their principles or resign when those principles are breached. They cannot allow their principles to reduce their effectiveness in their role or our political system would collapse. Your position is one that is incompatible with arguments against the politicisation of the civil service. If this is not a problem for you then fine. But this will not be the case for many.
123. I can’t remember too much about the local elections in the late 90’s to be honest. The first one that stands out in my mind is 2000. That said, wouldn’t the 1999 locals have been the same seats that were contested in 1995? Looks as though the Tories won back a big preportion of the seats they lost in 1995, so I’m surprised 99 doesn’t stand out in my memory.
135. October 2003 was definatly the turning point for the Conservatives at national level, but by that time I would argue the party itself was already in a much more stable position at local level. Local level is important because it demonstrates the health of a political party, IMO. All parties rely on their grass roots to keep them healthy and the demise of a government and the rise of an opposition can always be traced back through local election triumphs and disasters. The elections themselves do not tell you what will happen at the subsequent general election (though they did point the way in the mid 90’s) But for all governments there comes a point where loss of local support becomes critical in terms of numbers physically pounding the pavements and campaigning, and the same is true for Oppositions, whose rise into governments always rely on strong local support.
This is one of the reason’s why Peter Hitchens ravings about the death of the Conservative Party over the last 3-4 years has never added up. No political party thats dead and gone, would have such a strong base of support at local level as the Tories have over the last few years.
A couple of my favourites are Maggieknockater
and Little Cushnie.
And just outside Strathdon you have Lost.
Zim: ZANU-PF has banned all public assembly especially in Harare. MDC has called a strike to begin on Tuesday. Violence by ZANU-PF reported across the country. Now conflicting reports whether or not Mugabe will attend SADC Emergency summit in Lusaka tomorrow- Zambia says he would not be welcome. Botswana and Zambia have called for him to step down. Mbeki has not yet spoken publically since meeting Tsvangirai this morning.
150. But councillors aren’t neutral, they are elected representatives of the people. My argument is not about the civil service, but about those who are responsible for them. If a Conservative Councillor allows the council to spy on citizens, then it is the fault of the councillor and he/she should take responsibility for his/her decisions. I apologise if I’m missing something.
I’ve never been particularly anit-ID cards in the past but G’s naivety is making me genuinely reconsider my position…
153.Have been following this in the news, do you think that Mugabe’s support base is crumbling? If so, how long to do you think he can hang on?
153
Mbeki = complete waste of space and supporter of Mugabe.
154 - I’m not talking about Councillors, i’m talking about Council Officers. If councillors have the power to stop council officers using these powers then fair enough, but i’m not sure that they do.
148. If a council officer believes a decision he or she is being asked to take is one which is political or has policy implications, it should be handed to the responsible elected politician (or committee) to deal with, or at the least, advice should be sought and received as to the course of action to take.
In this case, the legislation might have been prompted by terrorist acts, but it was not designed solely to seek to prevent further terrorist acts or that restriction would have been included. Whether or not that was an oversight is a different question (though I’d say it probably wasn’t, as governments usually like a bit of free rein in case of unforeseen events).
151. The turning point in terms of local elections was 1997, ironically enough given what else happened on that day. There were consistent Tory losses from 1993-6 (including some extremely heavy ones), but I believe I’m right in saying that the Conservatives have made net gains in seats at every May election from 1997 onwards. At the national level, I’d say that it was the election of Cameron that turned things. Howard rescued what was turning into a shambles, but probably did no better than Hague would have done had he served another parliament as leader.
146. There is the village of Twatt on the Orkneys.
BTW I’m not an expert on RIPA, but the name suggests that it was legislation designed to clearly regulate what was previously legal, or at least of uncertain legality (similar to the Human Embryo debate). If so it wasn’t a case of legislation expanding the power of the state.
155 - I just realised that might sound a bit of bizzrre statement to make. To clarify - my neuatral stance on ID cards has always been based on the fact that I don’t really care about ID cards, it’s the laws that they uphold I object to - But if people are as non-plussed about the laws as G is (and I suspect that perhaps they are…)…well…I guess the anti ID cards has always been somewhat emotion based - and I am now more sympathetic. My opinion is still somewhat the same though ID cards mean nothing without the laws that they uphold - the fact that there are so many laws at the moment that I cannot agree with means that I am always going to prioritse being anti those laws rather than being anti ID card.
[152] Ah.. God’s Country indeed…The beautiful spiky names of Aberdeenshire: Meikle Wartle, Hatton of Fintray, Bridge of Feugh- where I went with my Granny to watch the salmon leap, & yes I know, it’s technically in the Mearns- Muir of Fowlis, Cairnbrogie, Chapel of Garioch, Insch, Tullynessle (is magic…).
Goes off muttering with the swell of deep nostalgia…
Here’s Labour’s real reasons for EU treaty taken from their Labour Movement for Europe site:-
“HOME
Why should we engage the EU voters?
January 20th, 2008by Noel Hatch
It engages a large, so far passive section of London’s population in choosing how London is run.
People who work in London, pay taxes in London, commute in London, raise families in London, should be made aware of their right to have a say in how London is run. Change a section of the electorate from passive by-standers to active participants in th