Is a new mayoral poll about to come out?
April 12th, 2008
Why the change in Boris and Ken prices?
There’s been a sharp move to Boris during the past hour in the London Mayoral race betting. As at 12.25pm he was at 1.51 which he was last at before the Unison-sponsored Ipsos-MORI poll in Wednesday morning.
A couple of people have emailed me to say that the Observer is carrying a poll tomorrow and the paper’s normal pollster is Ipsos-MORI.
I don’t know the truth of this but have been following the markets closely.
The betting prices are here
Mike Smithson
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The last two threads are linked. Boris can only be more of a favourite given the meltdown in browns reputation/chances. Its over for Labour and the Mayoral elections will be the first chance to prove it.
The media is increasingly spinning the Mayoral vote as London’s opportunity for a verdict on the government as well as simply the election of the London mayor. Which is more likely to drive people to the polls, and to support whom?
Could it be a national poll that is so dire for Labour that informed punters think it will impact negatively on Ken?
Just a theory.
I wonder if there is any significant (in electoral terms) number of Labour/LibDem supporters who are actually subscribers to the view that it is their interests for Boris to win coz they think he’ll damage the Conservative chances nationally?
3.My other half did a poll for YouGov a couple of days ago, he thought the questions were *interesting* and centred around Brown’s premiership.
4: No.
The only people saying that are IMO those clutching at straws who don’t want either Boris or the Tories generally to win, but are saying that as they’re looking for a ’silver lining’. Even if there were a handful of cynical people who would do that, it wouldn’t be electorally significant.
4. I think that some people would subscribe to that view. The problem with that view is a tory mayor could always advise lack of progress was due to the Labour Governemnt impeding progress.
An interesting parellel here - Bernisconi in Italy and Boris Johnson in London. Both are underated by their opponents parties but both are formidable players. Livingtone interestingly does not underate Boris and seems him as being in a tigtanic struggle between socialism and liberal conservatism.
I think Boris will win due to a better turnout of Tories, Independent voters for change and Lib Dems who want to give the other guy a chance.
Hopefully we can get a fully independent poll where the questions have not been rigged by Ken and his cronies.
The questions on Ken’s Olympic poll published earlier this week were so blatantly rigged they would even have embarrassed Mugabe.
To tie the two threads together, it will be interesting to see if there is any polling analysis of how much of Boris’ vote is aimed specifically at giving Gordon a kicking - to send a message that they don’t want him in 10 Downing Street a moment longer. It is the voters’ first chance to pass judgment since last summer’s stitch up. I know many people were unhappy then about his coronation, more so when he didn’t call an election - and are absolutely livid with the man now. The visceral dislike for Brown is as bad as it was for Thatcher in the Eighties - except, unlike Thatcher, Gordon does not have a hard-core constituency who will still voice their belief.
All Gordon Brown had was his reputation as a Chancellor. That has proved to be as enduring as a newspaper shop made of newspaper. Something to bear in mind when wondering if Brown will go. When he does finally call a GE, is he really going to say he will serve a full term? Another five years?
I think there’s a difference between “underrating” Boris as an electoral performer and doing so as an elected official. Nobody denies that Berlusconi has all the attributes to run the country, surely?
Slightly off thread - Brown departure in 2008 is 20/1 with Our Friend Sidney.
I’ve taken a little of that.
I see Thabo Mbeki has embarrassed himself again…
“Nobody denies that Berlusconi has all the attributes to run the country, surely?
He’s an egotistical crook, what people have come to expect from a leader I suppose.
I think we’re due the YouGov/Sunday Times national survey this weekend aren’t we? This is the poll that put the Tories 16 points ahead last month, so maybe its in anticipation of that?
8. Talking about Zimbabwe:
Gordon Brown has warned Zimbabwe leader Robert Mugabe that he is “appalled” at the latest developments in the country.
Zimbabwean police have banned political rallies amid growing tension over the disputed presidential election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7343904.stm
Are Labour not wanting to ban the tories from campaining imbetween elections? I don’t know how Brown has got the nerve to sensure Mugabe as at least Mugabe has elections even if they are rigged! Brown has not been elected Labour leader or been the Labour parties candidate for PM at a general election.
The worst thing Labour have done yet on Zimbabwe is get that great democrat Lord Malloch-Brown to mention the deficiences in Zimbabwes electoral system. Something that has great similarities with the one Labour has overseen here. Labour really are a bunch of pious cheats who think they have a right to be morally superior.
11.PtP, thanks for the Grand National tips, we did very nicely and my little punt on the weather came in third as well.
13 - Any highly able leader can be a crook. The question with Boris is whether he is up to the job in the first place.
17. Why do you think he is not up to it?
I think all the main candidates are up to it. Paddick has probably got the most about him but i would vote boris because he is the only one who can defeat ken!
15 - Either point out where in Britain we have:
- 10s of thousands of dead people voting across the country
- widespread ballot stuffing
- deliberate miscounting of cast votes
- widespread violent intimidation of political opponents and voters
- total monopoly of the media
- ridiculously implausible 100% turnouts
and more, or give it a rest.
18 - Didn’t say he wasn’t. I don’t know. Nor do you.
10s of thousands of dead people voting across the country
- widespread ballot stuffing
- deliberate miscounting of cast votes
In many places up and down the country - even judges say the electoral system has become fit only for that of a banana republic.
20. Well i would trust my judgement more than yours, after all did you not say last year that Brown would be a great PM?
19. Don’t forget vote theft from living voters who are deprived of their vote or the registration on people who do not exist or double registration.
19. Don’t forget Labour MP’s lobbying for tory campaining to be banned.
22 - No. Must be confusing me with somebody else.
Hi,
I live in Montreal, Canada — and I don’t know much about London.
But I was surprised by this paper written in the Jewish Chronicles:
Martin, have you never felt that you should find ways to utilise your obvious talents for misrepresentation and exaggeration to better use?
Also bringing last and this thread together.
Many critics of Al “Boris” Johnson complain that the Conservative Party has so little trust in him that they are surrounding him with PR people and outside experts because they are afraid he might do something silly. This is a “Bad Thing”. Though it seems to be paying off.
James “Gordon” Brown (I like to think of him as James Brown - the comparison amuses) has recently employed Mr Carter and colleagues to add to his existing PR team and a media expert to check he doesn’t tuck his trouser legs into his socks or meet foreign heads of government with a blob of orange make up on his forehead. He is considering employing Mr Penn’s expertise and has already a pet polling expert, speechwriters, Mr McBride and a feared (though less so) team of enforcers.
After all this investment he still appears with inane grin and strange jaw movements on a US talent show giving away mossie nets. Good that all that spend and expertise has stopped him doing anything silly.
From the other thread (with this one) we need to consider what exactly are the tipping points for Brown to go?
Looking at the May elections as the next known knowns!
If all of the following happens, then Brown would come under severe pressure.
1. Boris wins London by a mile (e.g. a 10% gap over Livingstone).
2. Labour’s England and Wales vote share on May 1st is at least 2% below the Lib Dems and nearer to 20% than the 28% Labour achieved in 2004.
3. We see totemic losses of council control from Labour (and failures to gain others).
Chances? Probably 10:1 (and no I am not offering!).
What is more likely is that Brown will be wounded, but not fatally and his premiership just drifts down in a series of wounds, none of which are fatal enough to push him out until the GE.
26
Do you know which person at Labour HQ wrote the original text?
10 Berlusconi - absolutely, and thus I reprint my post from the last thread.
“Who cares whether Brown goes or not? If he does, he will be replaced by an out-of-touch bully who continues to ignore the wishes of the people; if he stays he will be the out-of-touch bully who continues to ignore the wishes of the people; when the arrogant and sleazy Labour government loses the next election it will be placed by Pretty Boy Dave who will very quickly become an out-of-touch bully who will continue to ignore the wishes of the people.
We happily allow elected dictatorships rule our country and some of us [???] act as cheerleaders for the political thugs that engage in the ceremonial stuffing of the British people.
What a bl**ding mess.”
Malcolm
26 Most Jews I know would probably agree with that description of Islam.
Jews are about 3% of London’s electorate, perhaps 4% of those who’ll actually vote, as they tend to be wealthier than average, and turnout is higher among better-off voters. Most of them will vote Conservative.
32 SF
“Most of them will vote Conservative.”
And your evidence is?
Malcolm
33 A suggestion when you do your excellent pieces before May when you talk about Councils areas and so on perhaps in brackets you could say contains x critical marginals, mediums, long shots etc. Would help to tie results to potential insight into next election.
Haven’t 06 and 07 seen ever so minor improvements on the 2004 disater for Labour? Unless we start seeing those post budget polls repeated with labour scores in there 20’s then i remian of the view that Labour is at its core vote and its LD weakness adding to the tory tally that is inflating there lead. Perhaps thats what has sparked this betting move Mike talks about.
Re Boris. I dispair of a certain internal LD mind set that says give him your second preference because he’ll be a disaster and we’ll get a henley by election. I’ve learned to be careful what you wish for in politics. (a) suppose he’s not a disaster? after all he was ment to implode as a candidate? (b) suppose the party doesn’t do well in henley? or not well enough. If you take away the mystique of the By Election machine then expect further psycho drama within the party.
Anyway my advice is to dig out the superb matthew paris artcile from I think the first edition of the spectator this year. Brown is suffering majors fate of the press linking unconnected events.
[26] Philippe, neither the Jewish vote nor anti-Semitism are electorally significant in England to-day. FWIW the sense I have is that the JC is picking up on its readership’s “faute de mieux” attraction to Paddick.
35. I worked for Heseltine in Henley.
The LibDems have virtually no chance there. It’s just not the right sort of area. Newbury, fine. Henley, forget it.
A couple of weeks ago I itemised the most Jewish wards in London and suggested contributers look at their “politics”. Of course some Jews will vote Livingstone, I suspect, however that many more will not. Geoffrey Alderman in his book “London Jewry and London POlitics” has a whole chapter on Livingstone’s alienation of the Jewish community in the 1980s. It has not altered in recent years.
One little point, I have seen no evidence from Livingstone or his cheerleaders that the 7,984 BNP votes that he received by second preference in 2004 should be deleted from his final total. I wonder why?
The BNP/Boris allegation is pure spin, no more no less.
BTW in 2004 some BNP second preferences went to Respect and vice versa. Presumably the classic example of National Socilists.
Another point re Jewish voters - they are even less likely to vote Lib Dem than Livingstone. Most have read about Chris Davies and the former MP for Richmond Park.
“The LibDems have virtually no chance there. It’s just not the right sort of area. Newbury, fine. Henley, forget it.” - Tough certainly but after Romsey, Brent East, Dunfermline, coming bloody close in Bromley I would take a long breath before saying forget it. I doubt Cameron would. I would not be at all surprised if Boris stepping down turns into Boris’s announcement that he is stepping down at the next election
32, 33
Thank you.
One last thing.
And do you think the Muslim in London will respond to this appeal by the The Muslim Council of Britain for them ” to register to vote before the April 16 deadline”?
Does the Islamic community (a political identity that can sometimes transcend sectarian divisions) really “wield a considerable voting influence”?
If so, do you think it might give K.L. the edge he needs to win it again?
Can the Jewish community neutralize the Muslim vote?
“has a whole chapter on Livingstone’s alienation of the Jewish community in the 1980s. It has not altered in recent years.” - Is such alienation simply personal to Livingstone or is it Labour, Labour holding seats like Finchley speak to the former if it is occurring
40. Sorry, just don’t agree. The ones you mention all have demographics to suit the LibDems. Henley simply does not.
Believe me, I lived there for many years and if I thought it was truly a LibDem area (you can sniff them out a mile away) I’d definitely acknowledge it. Just isn’t. It is demographically as Tory as they come, and one of the safest in the country.
One thing I’d add is that Henley constituency Tories love Cameron. He is just their sort in that Heseltine party stream. Very much ‘PLU’ …!
By all means put money on the LibDems there but you will lose it.
16 You are very welcome, Chris D, and I’m glad it worked out profitable for you and your family.
Snowy Morning was the one really bad call I made, which isn’t so bad given the number of runners. Like the two that finished ahead of it, it ran a personal best. So too did D’Argent, until it fell. (Thanks Icarus for the tenner; I’m sure you’ll get it back soon enough.)
Naturally it’s nice to collect on a winner but it was every bit as satisfying to nominate five horses that all finished. I’ll treasure that.
40. That of course is the other issue. If he just decides to spare us all an expensive month in the country what can anybody do but moan? Personally i think its a bit of a cheek to do two jobs at once but the majority in henley is big enough to take any minor hit for a new candidate in 2010 and it will all be forgotten by 2012 and he runs again.
However I think the tory performance in Ealing and Sedgefield is the most worry aspect.
45 Why Ealing? Tory vote held up there despite perceived candidate and campaign weaknesses. It was first time I had hope the Conservatives could be biggest party.
26: ‘”As for Boris Johnson, suffice it to say that the BNP is so comfortable with his politics — his leisurely branding, in writing and in documented conversation, of black people as ‘piccaninnies’, his claim that Africa’s problem is that it’s no longer ruled by the British Empire — that they are urging their supporters to use their second preference votes for Johnson.”‘
I find that argument slimy. Although a Muslim hater of late, Griffin is a classical fascist and rabidly anti-semitic. If circumstances had been different the BNP might well have endorsed Ken for his dalliances with Yusuf al-Qaradawi - granted for malevolent, divisive reasons. In short, a politician who deplores the BNP shouldn’t be judged for being an unwitting recipient of their tendentious sponsorship.
43. What demographics about Romsey or going way back Newbury were good for the Lib Dems. I am not putting my money on them. I think the Tories would hold but this is the Lib Dems and By Elections. It would be no cakewalk.
45 Exactly. Boris can just point at Ken. The Tories can either risk a little embarrasment or risk a By Election which has no upside if they win and quite a potential for a headache to stall them after a poentially huge result for them in London
43 Richard - Given the the fact that Henley voters have got used over the past 30 years to being represented by the likes of Heseltine and Johnson, is there a high profile Tory PPC in the wings ? As you say its a job for life for the Tory candidate.
48. Remember the Romsey constituency contains a biggish chunk of suburban north Southampton.
45. I rather think the political climate has changed since Ealing and Southall, don’t you?! Labour were one month into the Gordon Brown honeymoon, and Cameron was facing Rwanda-flood visit backlash. There was talk of replacing Cameron, and Brown could seemingly do no wrong. National polls at the time placed Labour around 40% and the Tories around 33%.
A very very different mood now prevails.
UPDATE — original links:
London’s Muslims Urged to Register to Vote Before April 16 Deadline
Muslim Council of Britain’s Vote Centre
50. Quite. And Newbury is also a large, mixed, town! There’s nothing comparable in Henley constit at all. It’s rural blue rinse of a kind that loves a public school candidate.
49. That’s the really good question. They will now expect someone with considerable charisma.
(All assuming Boris does win of course!)
52. What is the purpose of this string of odd posts?
50 I thought that bit came in with boundary changes and was not there at the time of the By Election.
53 There seems a rather large Labour vote to squeeze. As I say I expect Tory strength to be sufficient but I think they would still have to fight hard. There’d be no room for the complacency you obviously feel.
45. I don’t think I have expressed my self very well. I see the failure to squeeze the tories in Ealing/Sedgefield (despite the Lit fiasco as being a sign of permenent recovery for the Tories. I think those LD’s assumimg that the tory vote will melt in a by election are deluding them selves.
Shame I couldn’t be here earlier during the Brown thread. Great to see such excellent writing from Matthew Parris and Martin Kettle. Can’t say I’ve got any sympathy for the captain as the ship Brown sinks slowly to the bottom of the ocean. The man who showed no mercy to all his rivals doesn’t deserve any mercy for his own execution. Sadly the Labour Party is too soft, so he’ll probably get let off to reoffend and leave the Party to a disastrous election result. But when he goes? Sadly tyrants tend to leave a big vacuum when they do and so will Brown. The Labour Party could die.
The reliance on the Unions must go and hopefully, if the Party goes for Ed Balls, the death could come sooner than we expect.
Mike, anymore news on whether a mayoral poll is coming out?
55. Quite aside from the demographics, Romsey was won in 2000 when the Tories were at about their rock bottom. Newbury was won in the aftermath of Black Wednesday when the Tories were likewise in disaster zone.
Totally, utterly, completely different situation.
By the way, I’m not complacent as I’m no longer a Tory. I just know the area and know it won’t go LibDem.
56. Ah! I’m with you there, both in understanding and agreeing!
54
I want to know if I should cover my positions on a B.J. victory — following the recent poll and this invitation of the Islamic community to mobilize.
Off Topic :
Obama ‘bitter’ gaffe could reshape fall and even spring
<a href=”http://hotair.com/archives/2008/04/11/this-is-why-rookies-shouldnt-run-for-president/”Some people even think he just lost the General Election!.
Odds will be changing fast — and not only for the Penn primary: for the nomination and the GE.
McCain at 2.85 looks like a very very deal, right now!
56 quite agree - sorry I misunderstood (got so used to the more partisan views on both). That was what heartened me, at a time when Brown was in honeymoon period, Cameron was under the cosh for grammar schols, Rwanda etc. the Tory vote share held (and in fact improved slightly) in both. The Lib Dems took Labour support and held and gained second places and could be pleased but not overjoyed.
43. “What demographics about Romsey or going way back Newbury were good for the Lib Dems. I am not putting my money on them. I think the Tories would hold but this is the Lib Dems and By Elections.”
In both cases the LDs had a large local councillor presence and put up relatively well known local candidates.
Regarding Henley, South Oxfordshire District Council has very few LD councillors.
Boris won’t call a by-election in Henley - he’ll do the same as Ken did and wait for the General before quitting Parliament.
He’ll say something like “As Gordon Brown’s premiership implodes before our very eyes, we could well be just a few months away from us all voting anyway - so why inflict a wholly unnecessary political circus on the good burghers of Henley? My neighbouring MP’s - Reading East, Wantage, Maidenhead - have agreed to provide extra cover for my constituents on those few occassions when I can’t manage both workloads. But it can’t be that tricky - Ken juggled being Mayor and MP after he was elected - and then juggled Mayor and harem-master quite well after that…”
Oh - and LibDems, forget Henley - it is as blue as it gets. If you think getting peppared with buck-shot from Jack W is an occupational hazard for a LibDem canvasser, Henley is way worse. There, they plant mines in their drive-way….
33 For evidence, look at the way that London’s most heavily Jewish wards (and adjoining wards in Hertsmere) vote in local elections
David Herdson made a good point about Brown’s tiredness in the last thread at 1832:
I believe that since the reforms of 1832, only two other people have served that long, that high at one go - Edward Grey and Margaret Thatcher, and neither was particularly effective after 11 years in office.
The really classic example would be the senior Labour ministers who came into the government in 1940: apart for the short break between May and August 1945, they served at the highest level through the most stressful decade that British government has ever faced. It is no surprise that Bevin and Cripps were forced to give up through health reasons, and died soon after, and Attlee and Morrison were also suffering huge stress. While Brown has had it easy by comparison, the toll must be considerable.
Off(ish) Thread
A real cry of pain from the Telegraph that it looks like Labour are on their way out but Cameron and not a new Thatcher will benefit. What do we want? Back to 1979!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/04/12/dl1201.xml
I think Boris would cause a by-election.
11 Yes, PtP, Brown to leave office in 2008 looks good value to me at 20-1 with William Hill and I’ve topped up today on that basis, having previously staked at 16-1.
This certainly seems to be appreciably better value than the 16-1 available from the same bookmaker on his continuing until 2017 - Heaven forbid!
As Rod has repeatedly pointed out, there’s no formal mechanism for his removal so it would have to be on “ill health” grounds.
Does anyone agree with Mike in the previous thread that the rigours of the job are telling on his appearance?
68 (con) - The situation with Ken is different - he represented a London constituency. There is an obvious conflict of interest between being Mayor and an MP for a non-London constituency.
I don’t think also that it should be assumed that a Henley by-election would be automatically good news for the LibDems. Great if they win or run the Conservatives close, but disastrous if they make little significant progress.
“Does anyone agree with Mike in the previous thread that the rigours of the job are telling on his appearance?”
You’d be hard pressed to find many Prime Ministers for whom that has not been the case. The only difference is the efforts to which they go to try and cover it up.
70 I’m sure the Tories would readily swap the enormous prize of winning the London Mayoralty for the loss of Henley - especially as they would more likely than not regain it over the next two years.
Boris would lose much of his current income from journalistic commitments - so he might find the income and resources from parliament useful. Besides, unlike Livingstone, who was able to carry out most of his negotiations on detail behind closed doors, Labour are going to be much more hostile ministerially to a Tory GLA, and Johnson might need Parliament as a way of putting extra public pressure on the government.
71 Quite true, Alex, but a considerable amount has been made of Brown exhibiting stress, eg the shaking hands (now cleverly concealed at PMQs with the claw-like posturing) and even the knocking knees in his interview last week with Nick Robinson.
61 Although everybody seems to be jumping on Obama because of this “gaffe” I cannot see that it will hurt him much. Perhaps an unfortunate choice of words, but only if a pattern of such statements are established, it will be cause for concern.
And Bill Clinton is out hurting Hillary again, by adding to the lies she already have told about the Bosnian sniper incident.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/from-the-fact-c.html
But I still agree McCain at 2.85 is value.
66. Lloyd-George was in office continuously for 17 years, 1905-1922, including 7 years as Chancellor, then Minister for War, followed by 6 years as PM. Probably the most tumultuous period in recent political history.
67. Goodness me! The responses to that article are extraordinary. Almost to a man, Telegraph readers are calling for a revolution. Loved the bit that said only Nigel Farage can save us!
I hope not.
73 - That rather misses the point. Boris could hardly stand up in Parliament and start arguing for Govt commitments on London! His job as MP is to represent Henley.
61: On the Obama “BitterGate” tangent:
Too early to say, but your response (”Odds will be changing fast” etc) seems way over the top. Obama may even come out ahead on this if he can grab a piece of Edwards’s “mad as hell and not going to take it any more” message without blowing up his “inclusive” thing. His response to the criticism is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc9PepjyDow
Obviously will depend how the media cover it. But there’s some very pro-Obama coverage of this on CNN, for example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G8dRMofHNs
(Not disputing that the nearly 2/1 on McCain at Centrebet is value, though…)
76 - Yes, although I don’t think that the peacetime difficulties LG faced were anywhere near as severe as those faced by Labour. On a less elevated level, you have those Conservative ministers, like Ken Clarke, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Sir Paddy Mayhew and Tony Newton, who held office without a break from 1979 to 1997.
What are the chances that Ken and the Unions would do everything possible to sabotage a Boris win, after the event? Would they be that irresponsible? They could certainly do a great deal of damage.
Isn’t it amazing how, after nearly 20 years since she left office, Mrs Thatcher still dominates the political landscape! Will the Tory ever move out of her shadow, I wonder? Will the right wing press ever leave her in history? At some she’s going to die, but even then, I rather suspect every Conservative leader/Prime Minister that comes after her, will be compared. Its quite extraordinary the devotion and following (not to mention the hate and loathing) The Lady still commands in her accolites and enemies alike.
75 Jan
There’s a YouTube of Obama’s response. It’s good. Worth a look, and kind of bears out your point.
Unlikely to hurt him.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Obama_explains_SF_comments.html
Asquith did 11 years
79 Great minds, Edmund, great minds…!
82. And it is utterly ludicrous to think that what we need is her return.
Where else around Europe do we see Thatcherites nowadays? There don’t seem to be many. Any?
The Telegraph comments, whilst disturbing in part, do at least show a sort of solemn acceptance, there’s no going back, as much as some people want to.
78 - But backbenchers certainly are not limited, by any means, to speaking on matters outside the sphere of interest of their own constitutency. There are plenty of MPs who use their position to advance interests which strongly concern them personally, but are not of great importance to their own constituents, and Boris as Mayor could easily do this. Of course, he might be attacked for this by his opponents and by Henley LDs, but it’s the sort of argument that is certainly not conclusive.
Also, is there any chance that UKIP could win a Henley by-election? It’s a shame Kilroy-Silk left the Party. As is always said on here, the Tories don’t do by-elections!
87 - Forget Henley LibDems, I’d be complaining if i was a Henley Conservative!
What chances of Boris’ dad standing in Henley? He has experience fighting an election campaign from 2005. He could get elected, stay as MP for eight years or so and then when Boris’ retires from the Mayor’s job after two terms he can try and take Henley back!!
82 - I’ve always thought this a dangerous problem for the Conservatives in the long run. One of the long-term factors that helped undermine the Liberal party was that, after 1886, and even after he reluctantly retired, the Liberals were entirely dominated by Gladstone’s personality, his policies, and his legacy, and it took a generation from them to recover from this. The Conservatives have become transfixed by Mrs. Thatcher in almost the same way.
88. No. The Conservative voters of Henley are not UKIP types particularly. I would add that some of them found Hezza’s Europhilia a little trying at times, but even so they’re certainly not your types to swing UKIP.
By the way, I once did the GE polling returns for the constituency at Blackbird Leys. One of the areas of the constituency that is not, ahem, very Tory. I think it’s one of the largest council estates in Britain.
91 Were transfixed, some still are but she’s moved from being an ever present though off stage participant to an Ornament, decorating the party, a reminder of past victories but not an actor any more.
Labour took a hell of a long time to escape Attlee’s shadow,
92. Just to add to that a little story.
I was sat outside the polling station on Blackbird Leys estate on that fateful day 1st May 1997. I remember it being a distinctly chilly start to the day, despite the sunshine.
By mid-morning turnout was slowly picking up and I was still on duty when an elderly gentleman walked up to me having seen my large blue rosette. Right in my face he hissed with surprising venom: ‘you ought to be ashamed of yourself’.
I knew we were in for a hammering.
80. “Yes, although I don’t think that the peacetime difficulties LG faced were anywhere near as severe as those faced by Labour.”
The People’s Budget, 1909..
Hung Parliament 1910-15..
Parliament Act 1911..
The Suffragettes..
Near Civil War in Ireland 1912-14..
Versailles 1919..
Anglo-Irish War 1919-1922..
A fractious and disintegrating coalition 1918-1922..
The rise of the Labour Party 1918-1922..
and the small matter of the Great War in between.
Perhaps Labour’s problem is it has too few problems, not to many…
Boredom and aimlessness do not enthuse the voters…..
89 - From what I’ve seen of Henley Tories, they don’t appear to be hugely demanding of their MPs as long as they have star quality. Henley’s one of the seats where intensive commitment to surgeries and local problems is not an absolute necessity.
86. The other thing people forget about Mrs T, when comparing her to David Cameron, is that in Opposition she didn’t shine much at all. I’ve seen a number of articles online, from the late 70’s, with commentators asking why she wasn’t doing better. For a lot of the time she and Jim Callaghan were well matched and it was only the Winter Of Discontent and subsequent vote of no confidence that caused Labour’s demise, and even then, Thatcher didn’t win with anything like the majority you would expect after such a disasterous period as that cold winter of 1979. The 1979 manifeso, while certainly containing some of the free market thinking for which Maggie would come to represent, certainly wasn’t anywhere nearly as radical as the 1983 manifesto, and I suspect that in 1979 very few people would have suspected just what a strong, legendary, reforming PM Thatcher would make.
The moral of the story? Never judge a leader by how they perform in Opposition. I’m not saying David Cameron (or funnily enough Boris Johnson) are in Mrs T’s league or that Cameron has the same ideology as Mrs Thatcher, but what I am saying is, don’t judge a book a book by its cover. Many people in the late 70’s did with Thatcher and they got a big surprise.
77: ‘The responses to that article are extraordinary.’
I’m no leftist, but I have to say I usually find the comments in the Telegraph excruciating: ‘Once again again Mr Heffer hits the nail … but if anyone thinks Call Me Dave and the useless … It is quite clear that only UKIP …’
The comments in the Guardian by comparison have been quite a hoot of late with left-wing NuLabophobes venting their sarcasm on Toynbee, White and co.
“Africa’s problem is that it’s no longer ruled by the British Empire”. This is a question - not an argument, addressed to anyone with any interest in replying. Would it be your opinion that the bulk of the population in ex-British colonies are more prosperous and happier than they were under BE colonial rule?
98. Poor Simon Heffer. The words ‘chip’ and ’shoulder’ come to mind …
About Obama
—-
We will see how ‘fast’ the odds will be changing.
But one thing is sure: there is a ‘pattern’ of Anti-Americanism and of hypocrisy in Obama that his last comment is revealing.
Hypocrisy:
In S.F., he said they are bitter and scape-goating free-trade. The thing is:
Obama himself seems to harbours an anti-trade affect. Didn’t he said that the U.S. should get out of NAFTA? Didn’t he demonize in front of union members many, many U.S. trade deals with foreign countries?
Anti-Americanism
In Octobre, McCain will doubtlessly be able to destroy Obama’s candidacy with radio ads mixing Obama’s San Francisco statements with anti-American remarks expressed by J.Wright and by his own wife.
The clear-minded people of America might then remember that Obama’s pastor was preaching hate, conspiracy theory and anti-Americanism.
Maybe the San Francisco remarks are something like a sign that Obama really does agree with his former pastor that America is rotten, injust and crual.
There is a pattern, indeed.
95 - Yes, but even counting the People’s Budget and the growth of the state, the administrative burden on ministers in this period was much less then it was in the 1940s, with the hugely enhanced powers and responsibilities of government, plus Labour’s steamroller approach to legialtion. Even during the war, ministers had much more time for leisure and much more time to focus on really serious issues like Ireland without being hedged in on innumberale smaller issues on the same time, as Labour were; great issues like Korea or the American Loan were completed by smaller but urgent issues like rationing policy, the housing programme, or economic planning.
68. 70. Another thing to remember is that Ken won as an independent in 2000.
So, once Labour had selected their candidate to replace Ken as MP, there was no paradox between Independent Ken saying that a part-time him as MP was better than a full-time Labour MP, while Labour coud claim the reverse.
Harder to make that claim if part-time MP and wannabe full-time MP are in the same party.
94 I’m just astonished the Blackbird Leys Council Estate is in Henley — I always thought it was in Oxford East.
There should be a pb.com medal awarded to canvassers (of all parties) for such acts of bravery in enemy territory.
83.
My take on the original comment and his explanation was that Obama is correct in saying that both rabid populism and values issues have been used to obscure some of the economic problems in America. Obama was also correct in that parts of the GOP have been stirring up a racist hysteria about immigration so as to obscure their economic agenda.
However, he uses a horrible and hackneyed choice of words and overlooks the fact that the whole point of ‘What’s wrong with Kansas’ type analyses was to get the Democrats to be a little more centrist on family values and crime. I’m an once-a-year liberal Catholic but even I find his equating religious belief with racism and xenophobia and talking about people ‘clinging to religion’ as somewhat arrogant and elitist.
Also, Obama comes off as extremely hypocritical when he starts attacking protectionsim after he himself had declared, ‘NAFTA doesn’t put food on the table’. Although this, like Wrightgate, won’t hurt him too much with his core constituency, it will play very badly in the Midwest and parts of the industrial North-East. I would even go out on a limb and suggest that the religion part of the gaffe leaves him vulnerable with African-American voters if Condi Rice appears on the bottom half of the Republican on ticket, as the New York poll demonstrates.
Still sticking with my prediction that even if he gets the nomination he has very little chance of beating McCain.
Love the historic odds tab in the betting section of the site. New I think and really useful.
I was hoping for the contest to hot up and for Boris’s poor campaign skills to allow Ken to at least keep things exciting. But if Mori are going to produce a poll tomorrow which favours Boris anything like as strongly as the YouGov polls then I can kiss goodnight to that. I’ve put a bit more on Boris.
Considering the way Labour is losing it (in all ways) I might mortgage my flying saucer to put the money on “Alex Salmond for Mayor of London”.
I always remember Salmond on QT once asked about his stand on the London Tube PPP deal. he just quietly replied that he had no policy on it. Dimbleby was really patronising and asked why he had no poliy on such a crucial issue. Salmon played it with a straight bat and said ” because I’m the leader of the scottish national party”.
Brought the house down.
96 - I would imagine that Henley Conservatives have many demands of their MP. They’re just of a different character to the standard. I don’t think Boris will be able to spare the time for the Garden Parties as Mayor of London.
Apart from chairing cabinet meetings there is very little that PMs need to do. If they appointed capable ministers they respected and trusted the job would be a doddle.
Blackbird Leys is in Oxford East now.
111. Yes, I see you’re right. It has been moved. Oh well, not that it was exactly LibDem territory but Henley is even safer blue than when I lived there!
109 - Essentially, it’s the same in terms of time as taking a ministerial post - not unmanageable. The wider benefit to Tories of having a London Mayor is quite high, too.
86. Sarkozy? Merkel? Both came to power with platforms of liberalising the economy.
As for this Obama story it’s completely a media storm, with attempts to whip it up by his opponents. This is nowhere near as damaging to him as the Wrightgate issue threatened to be.
I bet a lot of Pennsylvanian workers are thinking to themselves “No, I AM bitter! I’m very angry at Washington right now.” Why else did Edwards do so well even though he was a phony?
94 - I hope that elderly gentleman, if he is still alive, is now himself deeply ashamed.
105. When did he equate religious belief with racism and xenophobia? All he said was that people cling on to religion and family etc because that’s all they can count on when the government isn’t addressing their needs.
115 post of the day!
115 - maybe it was Jack W?
114
It does not matter if Obama is right or wrong. Or if the average Joe is angry and bitter
What matters is the effect on his statements on the electorate.
What matters, here, is that Obama is looking like an elitist populist. A very strange political animal.
What matter is that he is everyday looking more and more remotene from the American mainstream– like a guy having no clue how Americans live their lives .
He seems so disconnected from everyone except racist Black grievance politics and upscale snubery.
119. But that won’t be the effect! That’s what they will be thinking about McCain and Clinton saying Pennsylvanians aren’t bitter, they’re happy and positive and optimistic - when most working class Americans are not. Obama is the only one recognising their anger here.
OT: Stuart Dickson said on the last thread that the UK was not a country, but Scotland was. As far as I understand it, both are countries - the PM’s website describes the home nations as “countries within a country”. What does Scotland have that makes it a country that the UK does not?
Socrates, are you trying to compare Sarkozy and Merkel to Thatcher! Neither come anywhere near!
Thatcherism is dead - in Europe - and Telegraph readers are mad to think otherwise. Actually, from the comments on the site, most seem depressed, so maybe they realise too.
112 I’m sure you’re right that the Tories would almost certainly hold Henley if their GOTV operation only getinto third gear even. However it had better because while the Tory vote won’t melt I bet the Labour one will as Labour poll double digit deficits and no doubt their Leadership would see a Lib Dem By Election win as a way to change the narrative of the Press. The GE indicates the large vote to be squeezed. However if the Tory GOTV is even half decent hold it comfortably albeit not easily they should
120
Maybe not. You might be right — even for a guy with the name of the ugliest philosopher ever (if Socrates is your real name!).
The markets will tell. In the near future.
One thing is sure, right here, right now: both the Clinton and McCain campaign will try to spin the event in a way that makes Obama looks like an elitist populist.
He just give them plenty of munitions…
114/116 - Spot on. What I found more patronising was the McCain/Clinton response of “I don’t think Pennsylvanians are bitter, I think they are wonderful people” - as though Pennsylvanians would prefer to be screwed (foreclosure/bankruptcy) than insulted.
101 - Your charge of hypocrisy is misplaced - Obama is not against NAFTA, he just wants to re-negotiate elements of it. You can criticise specifics without being against the whole project. The anti-Americanism charge against him is puerile - again, you can criticise things without hating them. I think Americans are clear-headed, but not as intellectually one-dimensional as for these charges to stick.
105 - If it were any other candidate, I’d rule it out, but McCain might be persuaded that Condi is what he needs to beat Obama. I’m suspicious of thet NY poll, but the undercurrent could be ‘let the Liberals assuage their consciences by voting for an African-American and a Woman on the ticket, but also get McCain as CiC while the US is at war’. Quite compelling, if the GOP can keep the question on the War and Security, not Health and Education.
122. Frank, I’m not a Thatcherite myself. I do think she was good for the UK at the time, but I think it would be a very big mistake to try it now. But a significant chunk of both Merkel and Sarkozy’s platform is Thatcherism-lite - and both France and Germany need similar reforms to get unemployment down and restore growth.
124. The painting of a candidate in a certain ways is only successful if it rings true. But if they try to argue Obama is an elitist out of touch with working America, when blue collar Americans hear him recognising their frustrations… well, it’s just counterproductive.
113 - Well if you think so. For me it’s simple - there is a fundamental conflict of interest between holding the two posts. The interests of London are not the interests of Henley, and there will be times when the two will conflict. And i don’t think somehow trying to be the “MP for London” in the House of Commons is feasible.
125
Just to be clear: I don’t pretend to see and to judge Obama’s soul.
What I meant was: I think he is beginning to feel like a hypocritical, out-of-touch elitist — with a thruty populist dicourse.
I don’t say he is Anti-free-market-and-anti-American– for who am I to judge?
I just say: it feels like it. And we might see this feeling appear soon in the markets.
125 How do you see matters shaping up in Wales. Any fresh insights to offer
127. Amusing to read all these Lib Dems desperately arguing for a byelection, hoping for something to breath life into their shrivelled corpse of a party,,,
125. Re: McCain-Rice. Nice theory but the problem is that the swingvoter ideas you mention are in different categories. Lower class voters that would like a tough-man as CiC are not the same swingvoters as the upper middle class that like to show how egalitarian they are. Although there might be some working class women that might want to show a breakthrough for a woman VP.
BTW after he became Mayor, Livingstone voted 5 times in Parliamentary legislative votes.
130 - lol.
125
Might me the war: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article3724048.ece
I don’t know why an argument is going on about whether Johnson would cause a by-election if elected as mayor. He is on the record as saying that is what he would do and there is no particular reason to disbelieve him.
128 - Fair enough - but I’m with Socrates. I don’t think either of these really ’stick’. If that is what drives the markets, I’ll buy into him. Personally I think they type of danish pastry they serve at the DNC Credentials Committee meeting is more important to Hillary’s chances than these elitism charges!
129 - I’m fairly sure that there is no politics in Wales at the moment. There are no polls, no controversies, nothing. I think you’ve called the likely results in the Council elections as close as can.
What odds the LDs failing to take Cardiff Council (resurgent Tories and a useless leader)?
The market I would like to see is next first minister in the Senedd. I think when Rhodri Morgan goes, that Jane Davidson might get passed over for someone like Leighton Andrews to lead Labour. Given that Labour will have probably have been ousted from gvt in Westminster in 2010, then by the Welsh Assembly elections in 2011, I think the Labour vote in Wales will recover, and we’ll see the return of majority government. If you see this sort of market let me know.
In the Archbishop of Westminster market, there is a new entry as second favourite: Dom Hugh Gilbert OSB at 4/1. I’m not convinced - better chance of it being Abbot of St-Paul-Outside-The-Walls in Rome, Fr Edmund Power OP, but there are no odds on him. I may request some.
130. I think a shrivelled corpse is a little strong. We are just up a mountain with the weather closing and night falling, oh and we’ve lost the map. Wev are however well euipped and experienced to the chances of us (a) getting home safely (b) freezing to death are about 50/50. 60/40 If our team leader can find the map in time.
However I agree with your underlying arguement. If you put the party on the couch the whole Henley By Election thing is harking back to past glories. It strikes me as being a bit like a fading imperial power invading suez. It might have worked but will provoke a profound identity crisis if it doesn’t.
Never mind if we kept the guttering flame of parliamentry liberalism alive in 1951 we’ll get passed cameron one way or another.
131 - I was thinking white middle-class men. Would prefer McCain (CiC and tax cuts), but are loathe to vote against the historic firsts of an African American and woman. Condi means they can get what they want still get to think of themselves as enlightened without voting for Obama.
137 - Do you think you are fooling people pretending to be a Lib Dem rather than a Tory troll? Fairly childish… and inept!
What odds the LDs failing to take Cardiff Council (resurgent Tories and a useless leader)? - Hmm say 15% chance. No more. Because while I think you’re right the LDs maybe stalling I think Labour are collapsing so fast they will benefit by default. The Tories hold all the seats in Cardiff North anyway and will annhiliate their opponents there. After that it’s tricky to see even with resurgence where they go. It’s possible their vote may edge up in central but to delivering seats or taking them from Lib Dems doubtful. South Cardiff err no still stony ground for them. That leaves really just the Bay area and Cardiff West. In the latter I think could be where if anywhere the Tories surprise, but as I say I think Labour’s problems nationally are of such magnitude that Cardiff will drop most likely into Nick Clegg’s lap anyway. Thoughts?
Didn’t Dick Morris write a book saying that Hillary’s certainity as a candidate created the certainty of Rices presidential bid ? Obviously that hasn’t quite worked out but i think for these reasons Morus is onto to soemthing here. Either Obama, Clinton or god forbid Obama/Clinton will force the Reps the raise the game with there VP. Rice does this to some extent. The other option is to go counter intuitive and go for a white, conservative mail from the traditional south. the Reps have to either out flank the dems on demographics of widen the gap.
My probs with Rice ( Who is well qualified) are
- never run let alone been elected to anything. Leo cGarry syndrome a possibility
- doesn’t bring home state into play
- national security hawk doesn’t add anything to a Mccain ticket.
- visible reminder of Bush Administration
- Given Mccains age the prospect of her succeeding in office or being front runner for 2012. Is american ready for a black woman?
119 - The elitist/populist label is the one that sticks more readily on Clinton, and quite possibly on McCain. If either of them tries to go down that route against Obama they will find a carefully laid trap.
It would be nice, however, to see the victim culture of people who blame others for their ills changed in the US as much as it would here, maybe this is where it starts.
This is last post about Obama: it’s more that ‘elitism charges’.
Here’s why:
*
In his statements, Obama insulted guns owners: “[T]hey cling to guns…”
By doing so, he is insulting all those in America who have “clung” to guns since the foundation of the USA… He just attacked a core value of this nation; a notion the Founding Fathers placed second in the Bill of Rights…
*
He also insulted religious people: “or [they cling to] religion …”
As if people become religious because the economy is bad rather than out of a sense of divinity. So contemptuous.
*
Obama also insulted average people of being racist or xenophobic: “or [they cling to] antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment…”
Does he think they are bigots and xenophobes? Yes he does; or it strongly feels like it!!!!
*
All these insults can stick this image; they might not; but can’t we see their strong stickness potentiality (for he is between Clinton and McCain)?
139. Oh dear - internecine warfare breaking out. Again, one sniffs the tell-tale reek of decay…
139. How dare you you rude little man. Just because I’m trying to be objective and non partisan I’m a troll!
Just for the avoidance of doubt, I’m not a LibDem either. But then i never pretended to be.
143 - He didn’t insult these people he said that they aren’t being given the right answer, nowhere did he decry anything except anti-immigrant sentiment which, frankly, anyone in the US of all places should decry, the ones who don’t would never credit Obama with anything anyway.
It’s about time someone told it like it is, the shock jocks and christian right will fuilminate away but that’s part of the way forwards. Give people the idea that they will find their salvation in themselves, and that the gun and the prayer are merely the beginnings of a solution and the future starts to open up.