Tory YouGov lead back at 16%
April 12th, 2008
Cameron’s party hits 44% -
A new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories at 44% the second highest share in any poll since the Thatcher years. The headline with figures the changes on the last survey from the pollster a fortnight ago are:- CON 44%(+1),: LAB 28%(-1): LD 17%(nc).the highest since the Thatcher years
This poll equals that which Tony Blair got in his landslide victory in May 1997 and the margin is in excess of what Labour got at that general election.
The position is consistent with recent ICM surveys though the other pollsters, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and ComRes have been producing much lower figures.
Other surveys are possibly due out tonight including one for the London Mayor.
I will be out all evening so this is the Saturday night polling thread.
UPDATE 2220: An Mori poll in the Observer on the London Mayoral Election has Boris ahead of Ken by 51% to 49% after the second preferences have been distributed. This is the third pblic poll that the pollster has carried out on the election and is the first to have Ken behind. In February a Labour private survey by the firm had Livingstone 2% ahead as did a Unison sponsored poll last week.
It was the leak of this poll, I believe, which led to the big move back to Boris on the betting markets.
Latest mayoral betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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Whatever way you cut this, Labour has a serious problem and doesnt seem to have answers right now.
Stopping the rot takes time and with tehe economy the way it is they are going to have to go some to stop it and reverse it.
Right now I just can’t see it.
Nope they got 45 in a Sunday Times poll in December last year
Ooh more nad more Daves how will some people cope!
More great news in the run up to the local elections. I only hope that Rawlins and Thrasher, who have such a wonderful ability to get local election predictions totally wrong, don’t start saying that we will enjoy huge gains.
The local elections will be very tight, with no more than + or - 100 seats for each party.
if replicated in a general election;
Con 44% Lab 28% Lib 17%
Would give the Conservatives a majority of 128!
And some of the names we lose;
John Hutton
Jack Straw
Ruth Kelly
Nick Clegg
Not to mention out very own Nick Palmer.
With the abolition of the 10% Tax band still to be felt by Labour’s traditional supporters things can only get worse for Labour.
Can anyone give me a link to where I can find out which Labour MPs voted for the Budget?
Just looked at the list of people who’d lose their seats:
Straw, Darling, J Smith, Kelly, Hutton.
Other notables include Dunwoody, Clarke, Palmer, Cruddas, Austin, Pound, Stuart, Bradshaw
217 Previous thing
No, no, young man, we leave for the Lodge a week on Monday, but thanks for showing such commendable interest.
Malcolm
It will not be long now before we see a poll showing the Tory lead greater than the LD share.
It seems to me that Labour’s and the LD’s fates are now inextricably linked. The greater Labour fall, the more irrelevant the LD’s become, and the more like a PM Cameron appears to be.
The LD’s need to shift out Brown as much as many Labour backbenchers. If Brown stays 150 collective gains for the Tories looks very possible
5 - the map’s quite funny. It’s blue all over the South with tiny little Lib/Lab outposts.
5 - Baxter or Wells?
Given that LD saw biggest proportional rises in hopeless seats last time, Baxter is a load of tosh.
Good poll for the Tories; every right for you to feel bullish (near anagram there; not intended).
Excellent call by Mike on the drift on Ken we spotted earlier today.
9 very astute. The Labdems are doomed if they stick to their current plan. They need to attack Labour not prop them up.
7 Frank
If your list constitute ‘notables’ then does it not show what a desperate situation we are experiencing? I knew we would come to this with so few MPs who have had or are doing a proper job outside Westminster.
Malcolm
Sorry, in my excitement I posted too early and forgot to include:
Rammel, Simpson, Murphy, McNulty, O’Brien.
14 Frank
Get’s worse. Who will miss any of them?
Malcolm
11. Baxter.
All of these seat calculations are just a bit of fun. In practice, even with a huge swing to the Conservatives, its a john to imagine the like of Straw and Clegg being swept away. None of these seat calculators take into account how good or bad an MP may be, either.
6. All of them. If you dont vote for your party’s budget, whats the point of holding the whip?
11. Baxter.
All of these seat calculations are just a bit of fun. In practice, even with a huge swing to the Conservatives, its a job to imagine the likes of Straw and Clegg being swept away. Also, none of these seat calculators take into account how good or bad an MP may be, either.
15. Presumably the current Prime Minister. Unless he’s planning a night of the long knives…. No, not even Brown, surely.
Interestingly, I’ve often thought that Straw might be persuaded to stand for the leadership for the sake of the Party, but looking at this - might not self-preservation kick in? As far as his career goes, it might be PM or bust.
16 - thought so. If the LDs go down to about 18% at the GE - and I would think it’s likely it will be more - that’s back to 2001 levels. Probably enough votes in many of these Baxter swing seats to hold on.
12, difficult for the Lib Dems though, given that they’re led by an idiot. Disregarding the 30 women issue (amusing but unimportant) his EU debacle and the GQ interview bit referring to illegal wars and justified retaliation highlight just how naive Clegg is.
He could also do with learning a facial expression beyond boring and outraged.
For Brown, there could be a way back if the economy is either not hit too hard in coming months or if it is but starts turning around. Labour can’t/won’t ditch him.
Things are looking rosy right now for Cameron, but Blair never stopped hammering Major, and the best time to kick a man is when he’s down, so hopefully he’ll not put his feet up and expect to become PM by default.
Bit of spin here… YouGov don’t often give the LDs 17%. They did last month in the first time for a year. Go Lib Dems! Today… Cowley Street… tomorrow …Henley?
Is it only 110 weeks, 770 days to wait for a majority Conservative government.
13 years,in oppostion, when was the last time that happened?
16. When the winds of change blow, they sweep all in their path, yes a particularly hard working MP can give him self a few percent, but dont think because someone is high profile that they will get away with it, ask those Tories, who romped around the political landscape pre 1997.
I am still wary of the London election being called yet on teh basis of mational figures like these.
Clearly Boris is now favourite and I did early on take a few quid to him and have hedged by having a few quid on Ken but its pocket money. I can’t get heavily involved because Boris could end up being a very strong 1st pereference runner then find thinsg getting much closer in the subsequent distribution.
Ultimately too, I still feel London is, on balance, a Labour city in its voting demographics so the Boz still has work to do.
Producing a list of Labour notable casualties on the basis of this poll is just as futile and foolish as producing a list of Conservative casualties ( which would have included Mrs T ) would have been in 1981 or 1985 or 1990 .
re 2. Thanks Alex.
21 - did Clegg ever actually say he had slept with 30 women or are you putting words into his mouth? I think he hesitated over a couple of questions, and when it came to Morgan’s third question, he said it was certainly less than that. Foolish yes, I agree.
It’s like the fact that Gordon Brown never actually said he listened to the Arctic Monkeys.
Nor did Cameron ever say “Hug a hoodie”.
24. Yep, I was up for Portillo, was you?
26 - indeed. Every local election I remember in the late 1980s, Kenneth Baker was unperturbed as the BBC saying that on this basis he would lose his seat.
It’s a bit unlikely that the Conservatives will win 13 seats in Scotland.
Central probabilistic forecast (YouGov)
Con 375
Lab 198
LD 36
Nats 20 (assumes SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Tory majority of 105. Nick Clegg would lose his seat by 36 votes on a UNS, but my model shows him holding on!
6-poll rolling average
Con 322
Lab 248
LD 41
Nats 17
Oth 3
NI 13
Hung Parliament, Tories 1 seat short
On the subject of polls, I’ve been reading somewhere that the most accurate seem to be…
telephone
unweighted
unprompted
22 SBS
What difference will it make to the people of the UK if the Lib Dems win a seat at Henley? Lib Dems are a party that I have voted for, on occasion, but I still ask my question.
When I asked about the major policy difference between the Hack and the little Grey man in London a Tory offered bendy-buses. What the fcuk?
Malcolm
Reposted from last thread
212 “They have failed on such a monumental scale, on overy topic that it doesnt matter who the leader is”
I’m not sure that’s really true. I really feel like Labour’s biggest problem at the moment is not the situations people find themselves in, but the feeling that there is no way that Brown et al. will be able to come up with anything to get them out of it. The botching of the election, the botching of Northern Rock, “slinking along” later to sign the European treaty when no one was looking, botching the Olympic ceremonies announcement, American Pop Idol foolishness. These are the things that Brown is becoming known for - all things that, as perhaps Milliband suspected on QT all those months ago, one could never imagine Tony Blair doing. Blair was involved in all sorts of unpopular policies, but he still got a comfortable majority in 2005 because he was brilliant on presentation. Brown just can’t do it, and that doesn’t look like changing.
29. Interestingly, who could be Labour’s Portillo?
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 43% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106432/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-49-42.aspx
33 - a Henley by-election would be a bit of fun, but largely an irrelevance I agree.
28, I thought Brown actually did say that?
You’re right about Clegg, but it doesn’t matter if he said it, like Blair’s ‘whiter than white’, or Cameron’s ‘hug a hoody’ as you said.
Just reposting, in case anyone has any thoughts…
“Is there a line of argument that the nature of the areas being contested could actually make this election worse for Labour, on the grounds that being in their normally strong areas, there are no constraints on the amount of support they could lose (cf. an election with a large number of places where they have no representation to start with, therefore masking any falls in national support)?”
35 Labour’s Portillo?
Gordon Brown.
Jack, do you live in America?
what price Nick palmers next post is about the Itaian elections, Zimbawe or his positive impressions of local campaigning?
35 - I suppose you could make an argument that the lack of any real “hate” figures, despite their obvious unpopularity, is even more damning for Labour.
26. Come on Mark, allow us Conservative supporters a bit of fun, will you? I’m sure you’ll be able to pull us all back down to earth when MORI comes out later.
35. Ed Balls. We wish!
39, yes although generally where Labour have lost support from such areas it has not gone to Cons or LDs but to independents - e.g. County Durham, Blaenau Gwent. So embarrassing, yes, but not a lot Tories can do about it when “but you have no councillors in Newcastle, Gateshead, Knowsley, Liverpool etc.” will get thrown back at them.
What will be interesting to see is whether more of these independent groups emerge and what kind of success they get in the heartland areas.
34 - Blair was brilliant at presentation AND he had Gordon Brown’s reputation for running a successful economy. Brown may be a major part of the cause of falling support, but he is also a major cause of Labour having any level of support to fall from.
Frank, or any knowledgable poster.
Who are currently the members of the Shadow cabinet?
Malcolm
41 Frank. No.
BTW …. I’m holding up the contents of my ARSE until the we’ve digested the details of the other poll(s).
35 Jack Straw? Darling? both of these mentioned as possible victims on a uniform swing (with all the caveats involved with it)
45 if only!
48 - Shadow Cabinet (full list)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_Opposition_Shadow_Cabinet_%28United_Kingdom%29
This is good news for the Tories, but am awaiting to see the other polls, especially the one on the London Mayoral contest. After how badly Boris was perceived to have done this week, and Ken has done so well. I am expecting Livingstone to be well in the lead.
48 - Hague, Davis, Letwin, Gove, Herbert, Villiers, Fox, Willetts, Lansley, Grayling, May, Mitchell, Strathclyde, a few others
47 very true. And as the economy becomes a concern after 10 years of apparant stability he exacerbates the fall in support. I just can’t see any way Brown can raise his or his party’s popularity now.
44 - is Mori due tonight?
Rod - you say you have read “I’ve been reading somewhere that the most accurate seem to be…telephone, unweighted, unprompted”
As we saw at the 1992, 1997 and 2001 general elections with the unweighted unprompted bit. What absolute tosh.
47, Too true before Blair and Brown, Labour would have struggled to win an election against Atilla- the Hun having a bad year.
How funny would it be if the Observer poll showed a Labour lead…
Have been out canvassing this afternoon for BoJo and i am amazed at the positive reaction we have been getting.
People have been asking if they can put Boris posters and boards up in areas where we as Tories would not normally have one board.
The animosity towards Ken is palpable out here in the outer London boroughs.
If that is translated into turnout then Boris will get a high vote.
Not saying he is going to win yet but the fact that we did not find one Ken supporter out of the nearly 600 doors we knocked on today is reminiscent of 97 when nobody wanted to owm up to being a Conservative.
42. On the YouGov poll the chance of Nick holding his seat is about 100:1 against.
59 - “we did not find one Ken supporter out of the nearly 600 doors we knocked on today”
Either you are lying or at least some of your canvassees are!
Otherwise you could say “Private Tory polls put Labour on 0%.”
against Atilla- the Hun having a bad year - Is that how you describe Thatcher
I cant see Labour going much lower than 28% in such polls. 26-27 maybe but not 25%.
New leaders do help no doubt but then we come back to the situation people find themselves in….and if things (or pereception) don’t change reasonably fast under a new leader) the party in question will soon go down again.
I would not put it past a new Labour leader, ad I think it actually possible (if not probable) if Labour go bumping along at below 30% for a long time.
I just reading an article about the UK’s rich, stating that since November there has been a big big move by many of them to move into cash and blue chip shares. If the wealthy are only doing it in recent months the rest of us have some pain to go yet.
The economy still remains a central issue. This, i still think, is a problem that the Government have to hope they can ride out before AND see an upturn in the real economy next GE, and it is a hope because they have no answers. The we were responsible for 10 years of growth line has a downside, that they helped make it bad, and they could well get hammered by it.
5. “Would give the Conservatives a majority of 128!”
So Ashcroft has blown millions on seats that would be won anyway!
54 - Not sure that was quite my point. The thing is that aside from opposition to the Conservatives (rapidly dissapating) the economy was the one thing that Labour could hang on to. However it was Brown that gave them their reputation for running a good economy, it was not something that attached necessarily to the party. If Brown goes and his successors try to question the job he has done then it could in some sense make the situation even worse.
No i am not saying that none of the people we canvassed today wont vote for Ken just that they did not want to say that they were Ken supporters.
Alot of people expressed an interest in voting for Paddick but that is to be expected as this is a Lib Dem controlled council with 2 Lib Dem MPs
64 - “So Ashcroft has blown millions on seats that would be won anyway!”
And Nick Palmer would still be upset…
58. if it did and shifted the betting markets substantially I’d be delighted as I’d buy Tory.
66 - Richmond?
58 - Even funnier if the unthinkable happened and it showed a Conservative lead on pre-97 basis (not filtered for certainty to vote)
56. I believe the (admittedly tentative) conclusion was based on Canadian and Australian elections. I think after getting the unprompted responses, they then asked the “Don’t knows” which way they were “leaning”, and assigned them thus. Interesting nonetheless.
For someone to be a Potillo they would have to be really. I don’t see any of the real swines in the PLP going so we’ll have to be happy with the Chancellor getting his comeuppance.
72 - Reallly hated should have been the end of the first sentence, sorry.
Balls would definitely be the Portillo moment! But it is very unlikely. How can Darling or Straw be considered hate figures?
71 - Australian elections are presumably just a completely different beast and MUCH easier to poll because of compulsory voting
Re; Portillo. If only it could be Douglas Alexander….
One detail lifted from Teletext;
Only 11% of those polled expect a Labour majority at the next election! :O
74. You aren’t wrong. Straw can be described as many things but a hate figure?
No chance.
35. That would be easy, Ed Balls, but i dont know how safe his seat is.
74 - for political anoraks, but most people simply wouldn’t have the first idea who Ed Balls was.
I reckon Conservative Cabinet Ministers were far more well known (whether a product of less centralised control, or maybe programmes like spitting Image?)
Balls would not be like Portillo. OK so all of us here know who Balls is, but do the public? Will they in a year or two come the GE. Probably not. He is so dull.
Portillo was very widely known in 1997. Even when he was hated, he was still revered. When he lost, there was a real feeling that the Tories had lost a star. Would the same really be said about Balls?
80 - 81 - snap!
David Cameron MP
George Osborne MP
William Hague MP
David Davis MP
Liam Fox MP
Michael Gove MP
David Willetts MP
Andrew Lansley MP
Theresa Villiers MP
Nick Herbert MP
Chris Grayling MP
Peter Ainsworth MP
Eric Pickles MP
Baroness Warsi
Baroness Neville-Jones
Jeremy Hunt MP
Francis Maude MP
Theresa May MP
Alan Duncan MP
Owen Paterson MP
Cheryl Gillan MP
David Mundell MP
Andrew Mitchell MP
Philip Hammond MP
Lord Strathclyde
Caroline Spelman MP
Oliver Letwin MP
Patrick McLoughlin MP
Wikipeda [thanks to Morus at 51] tells me that the list above constitutes the Shadow Cabinet. My question is, other than Pretty Boy Dave, how many of the above could be named by the Man on the Clapham Bendybus?
If our country keeps voting against - Wilson, Heath, Thatcher, Major, Blair and Brown - is it no wonder that it will also vote against PBD at some time in the future? It all comes back to notables, doesn’t it?
Malcolm
To all of you saying Balls wouldn;t resonate like Portillo I say;
SO WHAT!
Or should that be;
SO WEAK!
The poll is even worse for Brown than Labour. His personal rating is now -37 (from +48 in September). Only 11% expect a Labour Overall Majority and if Tony Blair were still in charge then the Conservative lead would be cut to only 5 points according to this:
http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/2008/04/12/tories-poll-rating-at-16-year-high-84229-20756602/
“If our country keeps voting against - Wilson, Heath, Thatcher, Major, Blair and Brown - is it no wonder that it will also vote against PBD at some time in the future?”
Er, you do understand how democracy works, don’t you?
Ed Balls Normanton constsituency where he has a 10000 maj on a 37000 vote.
Would have to be a fairly dramatic swing to displace him
Not that anyone ever voted Wilson, Thatcher or Blair permanently out of office.
62.No she was Saint Francis of Assisi.
“where there is discord harmony”
59 Timmo
“Have been out canvassing this afternoon for BoJo and i am amazed at the positive reaction we have been getting.”
Why? Is he a really bad candidate? Surely if he was a good one you wouldn’t be surprised at all, would you?
Malcolm
What’s John Reid up to nowadays. He’s been very quiet since resigning. Is there unfinished business between him and Brown?
87 Normanton is abolished. He goes somewhere pretty safe though
16, 24 Surely hard working MPs advantages are already factored into the results? Many of the current Lab MPs in marginals came in in 1997 so any personal vote advantage should already be accounted for in last time’s results?
84 - HA HA.
I can’t see even him losing Normanton though.
83 - Front line politicians just are not that recognisible. The end of Spitting Image was a disaster really.
86
No, do tell me.
Malcolm
No but what i am surprised about is the almost universal disdain in which Ken is held out in this outer london borough.
Many people including myself voted for Ken either 1 st or 2nd Pref the last 2 elections.
Not any more.
The Ken is a lovable cheeky chappie image has gone to be replaced by the Ken is a crook feel.
I expect the economy to get much worse. Anyone follow DSG (the former Dixons Group)?. They issued their second profit warning in six months as consumers are cutting back spending on discretionary white goods: and that is before recent tax and food and petrol price rises.
I expect many less affluent consumers are going to be horribly squeezed - and I do not include those refinancing from fixed rate mortgages where their annual interest bills are likely to rise 2% - on an average mortgage of £100k that is £2,000 from taxed income.
Big slice of take home pay.
The best off poor will be those on benfits who will be only affected by food price rises.. which are going to get worse: anyone who likes rice is going to find it much more expensive as shortages have doubled the price and it is currently going stratospheric
http://tinyurl.com/3ms6od
As for fuel we are now at the £5 gallon…and thr inflationary effect has yet to hit the real economy.
As for house prices, well just wait and see.
And th Chancellor is going to have to find another £30 billion to finance in 2008,9 and 2010 cos his sums are best case… so big tax rises or interst rate rises (to sell Government bonds0 are likely to be on the cards.
It IS going to get worse: a LOT worse…
As for Gordon’s 3 million new houses in 10 years,… well we may see 2 million if we are lucky. New housing starts are going one way only.
There is going to be a MONUMENTAL government spending squeeze which is going to affect everyonme and lose a lot of the improvements in services made in the past 10 years. It will take another 18 months before it starts to bite.. just in time for the next election.
I remmeber the 1980 recession and the 1990s one. Unpleasant for 3 years.. You need a tough Chancellor and one that is one thing Gordon does not have.
87, that constituency becomes defunct next time, he’ll be sitting for Morley and Outwood.
83 - I follow politics and can’t put a face to most of these. Who would have over 44% recognition among the public? (I choose that figure as that is the Tory polling today.)
Hague, Cameron… probably no others.
Back in the late 1980s / early 1990s, I guess many more of the public would have recognised Kinnock, Kauffman, Smith, Hattersley, Cook, Gould…
91. He’s Chairman of Glasgow Celtic FC
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football-news/football-feed/2007/09/29/john-reid-is-celtic-s-new-chairman-86908-19867673/
94 David Roe
“Front line politicians just are not that recognisible.”
Thank the blessed Lord Above.
Malcolm
96. What was it that did this. Chavez? Jasper? I haven’t been to London for years, so I’m genuinely ignorant.
99. It is because of all the immigration!
95 - Every 4-5 years we get to vote on the performance of our leaders. Politicians can’t satisfy all of the people all of the time, and over time a critical mass of grievances will build up and Govts will be removed from office. The fact that the vast majority of careers end in the failure of being rejected by the ballot box, does not mean that all careers are failures. Simple really.
101 - Why? Surely people felt more engaged when they knew who they were voting for?
96. Nah Ken is less a crook more a luvvy with a desire to feel big by hanging about with terrorists over the years….
91. Working for Celtic FC….
96 Timmo
“to be replaced by the Ken is a crook feel.”
Ken is a politician, therfore he is a crook. Bush, Putin, Mugabe, Berlusconi, Ahearne, and from yester year Stalin, Lenin, Mussolini, Franco, Nixon, Amin, Hitler.
QED
Malcolm
FROM PREVIOUS THREAD.
15 Pre-election spending and Campaigning. It is true that you can no longer spend without any control in the year up to a General Election. Fine if we had fixed term parliaments, what company could budget on that basis. Typical legislation which has no thought to practicalities.
All MPs now have 10,000 pounds a year to spend on communicating with their electors. I know that Cameron does not agree with this, but dont know whether Conservative MPs have been told not to use this allowence or not. Maybe someone knows?
Having seen some of the literature produce using this allowence by a North London Labour MP (you have to say on the newsletter or letter or whatever, if the money to pay for it has come from that allowance), it is the sort of thing that would have normally been produced by the local party. Instead of being Riso-ed in black, it is now in full blown colour. The added effect is obvious.
42 - Jewish people voting against Livingstone. In 2004, Livingstone did not get a majority in Finchley - one of the few seats that Labour retained in 2005, that did not back Livingstone. The Jewish population in Finchley is falling. The largest relgious group in Golders Green is no longer Jewish - it is Roman Catholic - a reflection of Jewish people moving outwards and Eastern europeans moving in.
Gordon Brown present position reminds me of the Film Raiders of the lost Ark. For years Brown has lusted after the Keys to number 10 and the power and glory that go with it. Once Brown has it, like in raiders of the lost ark he and his close circle get into no.10 (Similar to the scene on the hilltop where they open the ark).
Lost in an orgy of power and self- gratification Brown thinks it “beautiful” and heralds a new era, he does not realise the beauty will turn into a beast: A nightmare of his own making that will turn him into dust. In this Parallel Ed Balls is the Fat German SS captain who “melts”!
107 - What point are you trying to make? That you are in favour of anarchy?
Berlusconi is excellent.
Sometimes someone comes along and makes a statement that cristalised clarity.
Socialist are Tards.
90, it doesnt sound like you have done a lot of canvassing.
It is possible to go through a canvass and people just tell you they are against your party, and them not declare. I was canvassing today, in a rural council seat(involves getting in and out of a car a lot), it gave me 35 cons, about 15 against, 1 lib and 3 Labour. The seat is currently held by a libdem….
106. Is that a full-time job? Surely the man has parliamentary business to deal with?
103. Honestly, Martin. BTW, looking at the last thread I liked your comparison of Caroline Flint to Thatcher. I definitely think there is a similarity in terms of public appeal.
108, I think the law makes it so that the MPs have to use the communications allowance for, er, communications. Could be wrong though.
It should be revoked.
95
So what proportion of the electorate who vote Tory [Conservative Party version] at the next election will be voting for Pretty Boy Dave and his list above, and what proportion will be voting against Brownstuff and his ‘notables?’ I guess a little more will be doing the latter rather than the former.
Malcolm
103 Immigration is Labour’s key policy and key strategy.
When Labour is kicked out, the Deportations can begin.
115. Have you seen Polly Toynbee’s article from the Guardian yesterday? She makes an interesting comparison with Sweden, who recently voted out a left wing government and are not very happy with the new conservatives.
115 - What though is your point? Everyone knows that people vote for a myriad of reasons, positive, negative, misguided, whatever.
As long as they put their cross by the Conservatives, then it is fundamental that the Conservatives have the right to treat that as support for them and their manifesto. Whether they then cut back on some of that manifesto will be due to how the public respond further down the line. And so it goes on.
108. Our local MP uses his communication allowance to sends leaflets with the red rose and Labour in bold type, a week before the local elections begin.
118. Rather like Labour and the EU constitution - sorry treaty!
110 Alex - my point:
That we have a tendancy to be ‘ruled’ [quaint thought] by the lowest common denominator, and that in my dotage, sad to say, I have finally come to realise this. Heaven forfend, I should know, I was a politician, thankfully only involved in local government.
Malcolm
118 Alex
“As long as they put their cross by the Conservatives, then it is fundamental that the Conservatives have the right to treat that as support for them and their manifesto.”
It is so sad if you really believe this.
Malcolm
Depends what type of crook they percieve Ken as,the lovable rogue,the artful dodger, who dips the rich a bit or a complets shister.
Up against the rich upper class previous law breaker.
91 — Who cares what that thug is up to?
I’ll go 100/30 Ken to Mayor of London
122 - It’s not a case of belief. It’s just the fundamental basis on which democracy operates. Like i went on to say, if in implementing that manifesto it becomes apparent that their voters were not quite as enthusiastic about individual aspects, then they will likely trim those aspects to try an prolong electoral support.
123 & 125 - Do we know something about the latest mayoral poll - is Livingstone well in the lead?
Labour look to have gone beyond the point of no return. No posters of the left even bother defending Brown - Not even Nick Palmer!
Brown is defietly on the way out ion the next 2 years - no doubt about it.
I think MP’s like Nick have woken up to the fact that Brown is not leadership material. When even Mugabe can look statesman like in repudiating Brown’s accusations - you realise Brown has had his goose cooked. He is dead in the water - Finished, Tony Blair has more of a political future in front of him that Brown. Looks like Tony has the last laugh after all!
123, a man’s personal wealth and social background should be irrelevant to his electoral prospects. As for his heinous crime, are you referring to grand supreme really quite serious larceny of Tariq Aziz’s cigar case?
Reminds me of this, from 28 February:
“Yesterday the Metropolitan Labour Party Police announced they were embarking upon an audacious investigation into the nefarious activities of the capital’s greatest crimelord Boris “Corleone” Johnson.
Johnson, renowned for his sly, staggering intellect and collected manner, has confessed to Grand Larceny when he ruthlessly stole the sentimentally valuable cigar case from Iraq’s former Foreign Minister Tariq “I kill Kurds for fun, ahahaha” Aziz.
Mr Aziz, currently on trial for jaywalking and parking offences, in addition to a number of lesser charges including murder, genocide, and illegal possession of a comedy moustache, has expressed his extreme sorrow over the episode.
“If one thing could make my impending death sentence a little easier to bear, it would be knowing the heroic mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, had Johnson executed for his heinous crime against humanity,” he told Mayor Livingstone over the phone.”
ConHome has a new Ipsos MORI poll on the Mayoral race.
Boris 2% ahead after 2nd preferences.
Brown ‘a tiny dot on this world’
painful in its truth
From Conservative Home:
Ipsos MORI: Boris ahead by 2% after second preferences
Earlier this week an Ipsos MORI poll had Livingstone ahead of Boris by 51% to 49% on second preferences had been taken into account. A new Ipsos MORI poll suggests that Boris is now ahead of Livingstone by 51% to 49% on second preferences. We don’t yet have first preference voting intentions.
The survey also says that 4 out of 10 Londoners think the city is dangerous and 6 out of 10 think it is congested.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/04/ipsos-mori-bori.html
****WHAT TIME IS THE MAYORAL POLL OUT?****
133. Ah, spoke too soon
This poll should reassure Boris backers and is more-or-less what Sean Fear has been predicting.
130 - Conservative Home had the Conservative Home blog posted before me!
134 - gonna be close. There is value in backing Ken.
I can just imagine the scene on polling day: the chants of Labour, Labour, Labour - Out, Out, Out. The curdled Labour screams of Tories! The slow clapping as the representatives of the Labour party are slowly clapped out of office and Ken Livingstone majestically passing power to Boris whilst blaming Brown!
So that is Busted Brown dealt with, Calimity Clegg or “Nick / Neil” Kinnock will be another loser - maybe he will resign before the skeleton fights back?
And both polls surely only highlight again the extraordinary divergence between MORI and YouGov. After all, if the latter is showing a national 16% Conservative lead, then would not that for London must be around the same, if not higher?
136. Don’t think so. Back Ken with your money if you wish, I’ll take it!!
Jaysus, how timely was my post at 25
136 - “gonna be close. There is value in backing Ken” - I agree. I would never count Livingstone out. Actually I can’t imagine him not winning, as it has always seemed totally inconceivable…
141 - I can easily imagine Ken losing. But I cannot imagine his odds not dropping before then.
114 - yes that is what the communications allowance is meant for. But reading through the newsletters I have seen, most people would suggest that they are party political. One included a freepost address - the same one (and FREEPOST code) as the constituency Labour Party use.
It is politics paid for by taxpayers
Maybe Brown will announce his resignation before the local elections to mitigate the Labour slaughter?
Napolean’s most highly prized attribute in a General was luck.
Is Gordon Brown lucky?
Do you feel lucky Gordon? Well, do you?
144. the country isnt that lucky.
143- my Tory MP is the same. 24 piccies of him in his newsletter.
144 The retarded blind shaker Brown didnt wait 10 years - just to retire.
147. Who is your MP?
149 - Rik W’s employer.
148 - were you known as Will L in a former life?
It does look like Blair was right about Brown being useless, doesn’t it. Unfortunately, Brown was also right about Blair. And, Brown was Chancellor from 1997 to 2007 with the dire consequences going to fully unfold in the two-year run-up to the 2010 annihilation.
144
Remember 12 months ago and all those Brownites saying why oh why won’t Blair go before the elections…….
I guess this MORI result is what we would have seen in the last poll, without the long winded question the Union got MORI to ask?
Surely this issue is the actual election campaign.
imagine it starts with Tories on 40+ and Labour on 20+….. we then have 4 weeks of maximum exposure of a gurning, orange dotted, socially inept, proven liar versus DC (insert your own flaws)… what could be the result of this contest?
goodnight and god bless (pb idol)
151. I dont think so. Where can I read his posts?
Who is Rik W’s employer?
@NICk Palmer from 2 threads ago “confusing? Veltroni might have narrowed the gap, see, so he might be a close second, but there’s the leftists siphoning off votes, and that’s bad, and they mainly do well where Veltroni does well, and that’s presumably bad, but splinter lists mainly impact the second-placed party, and that’s good for Veltroni. Huh? Can andrea explain?”
At the Sanete, it’s all done at regional level. So if Rainbow Left pass the 8% threshold in regions won by Veltroni, they will end up taking away seats from Silvio. For ex Veltroni wins Tuscany with the Left getting 8%. Veltroni would get 10 seats at the Senate there and Silvio and the Left would split the remaining 8 (6 to 2). If the Left is under 8%, Silvio would get 8 seats in Tuscany.
What’s really good for the Tories/bad for Labour about this poll is that the Tories are polling higher even than when the Lib Dems were at 11-13% in the polls last year. That means the votes are coming straight from Labour - a swing from Labour is much more valuable then the equivalent swing from the Lib Dems.
153 - Ah yes, posts such as this one, from April 30 last year. I’ll leave you to guess the poster…
“I think your figures sound reasonable. I don’t think these results will give us any sort of a clue to the next election because thanks to Mr Blair’s ineptitude they have become a good bye message from the electorate to him personally. Imagine you were a Lebanese or just a simple Labour voter watching that delightful little country being pounded to ash ….what message would you want to send him?
Mr Cameron is irrelevant to this election. It’s 100% about Blair. Good riddance to the man. If it wasn’t that it might make the Tories look good I too might have registered my feelings about his last two years in office by voting Lib Dem. Brown though deserves better and for this reason alone I expect Labour not to do too badly. 26-28% The Tories under 40%”
158. Did you see that American Actor who’s father was a democratic senator backing Veltroni, mind you he had been to see Brown as well. Obviously good at picking winners!!!!
Maybe he has picked Obama in the states?
159. Plus when Lib Dem voters realise they have the equivelent of Neil Kinnock they will flood to the Tories and Cameron will get a 250 seat majority!
157 - Green Issues Communications
163. ??????
The most interesting part of this poll is Brown’s approval ratings decline- the worst in modern political history. This speaks volumes- that Brown is the main problem for Labour.
Of course the economy stupid, and to a much lesser extent Cameron’s re-branding of the Tories, but Brown is Labour’s problem.
119 - the use of party logos on leaflets produced with the Communications allowance is against parliamentary rules. A number of MPs have been asked to pay back parliament when they have been caught out.
161. Gordon sent his good wishes to Veltroni too.
Has Cameron sent anything to Silvio?
163. As long as it is not Theresa May - I once got a signed letter off her and i did not like the contents, so i burnt it! It amused me as her signature burnt with a blue flame!
May is no maggie thatcher but Carolin Flint could be!
‘The Ken is a lovable cheeky chappie image has gone to be replaced by the Ken is a crook feel…’
How fickle the public are…or more accurately how gullible to have ever believed in the first of those characterisations.
167. A pic of his wife….I hear Berlusconi like such things..
165. Brown has raped Labours prospects like he has raped the English tax payer!
168 - “As long as it is not Theresa May”
It depends which Theresa May you are talking about…
169. Livingstone has always come across as a bit slimmy to me, never mind he can spend more time with his newts soon!
I cracked that first by the way!!!! 
172. Not the one who gets her boobs out! or anything else for that matter! The one in the commons!
164 - Rik W now works for Green Issues Communications
165. Brown was supposed to have done away with boom and bust, but that seems to have been exactly whats happened to his poll ratings.
175. Who did he work for?
Ah, Graham Watson MEP (LD) has written a “good wishes” message to Veltroni too. He apparently came to campaign in Salerno too
143 piccies or party logo, there is a difference. A picture of an MP at a school or community event is reporting on non political work. Using a party logo is a different matter.
175 - He worked for Rob Wilson MP previously.
172 - Read the wikipedia article for the other teresa may - especially the last line……!
181 - The average PB poster, or not!
In other news, World peace’ hitcher is murdered
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7344381.stm
kind of demonstrates the world is a dangerous place and that lefties and nambie pambie liberals are dumb and best kept out of government.
180. Never heard of him!
181. I know who the other teresa may identity! I used to look at other websites before this you know!