Double Carpet on Sunday
April 13th, 2008
A new regular column focusing on the international scene
Welcome to what’s planned to be a regular Sunday evening column, partly inspired by Sean Fear’s excellent Friday articles on UK politics. I can’t promise that this column will be quite as regular as Sean’s, but the plan is for it to come out fortnightly if possible and we’ll see how it goes.
The “mission statement” for the column will be to focus primarily on international politics, outside the PB mainstays of the UK and USA. There may be the occasional foray into British and American politics, finance and economics, and possibly even the odd bit of sport, but the main remit will be the “rest of the world”, looking at such things as forthcoming elections, key figures, comparative politics, and of course the betting markets.
Italy voting today and tomorrow
Italians are going to the polls for the Chamber of Deputies and Senate, with voting closing 3pm local time on Monday. Berlusconi remains a strong favourite to become PM for the third time - latest “in-play” prices are here - don’t forget to use the betting links to help support PB. Links for the Interior Ministry, RAI, and Corriere della Sera may be helpful.
Useful international weblinks
In addition to PB, the BBC, and Real Clear Politics, a couple of other sites are required reading for me every morning. The first of these is the Angus Reid site, which is updated daily with a selection of opinion polls from around the world. Sometimes they may be slightly out of date, with a UK YouGov poll appearing several days after PB, or stating the obvious - “McCain could keep Idaho red in 2008″, or rather esoteric, “Paraguayans oppose child labour” - but on the whole it’s an excellent site and indispensable for keeping up with public opinion in key countries.
I’d also recommend Bloomberg, which concentrates on finance but often has good politics stories too, and the superb Election Resources which has election data from all over the world and excellent background articles (Adam Carr’s site is very good too). Finally, one site from America and one from Europe: the US Election Atlas has a wealth of election results and maps (in the “traditional” colour scheme with the GOP in blue), as well as forums on which PB’ers can sometimes be found, and the Robert Schuman Foundation has writeups on all European elections - Europe in the broadest sense stretching to the Caucasus.
Free download
Today’s free download is the 2006 Italian election (Chamber of Deputies) by region.
Your articles welcome
Finally, your contributions are extremely welcome to this column - please send any international articles, which should of course be within the general ethos of PB, to me at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk.
Cheers & all the best,
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
MessageSpace Advertising
As I said on the previous thread - Double Carpet on Sundays will probably appear twice a month and will focus on international election except the US. This coincides with today’s Italian election.
Double Carpet, or Paul Maggs we we know him, is the site’s normal stand-in editor
Best of luck with the new venture.
Sorry for immediate O/T but reposting from previous thread. In fact though this article kind of makes my point- ojective opinions about the Italian elections are the kind of thing the site should be about.
Repost from previous thread post 355:
As a lurker can I please ask all the mad posters today (Francis, Eastern Eye etc…) to just go away. I read this site to get important tips on betting and politics in general. Your posts make the site difficult to read as you have to scroll past them to get to those with something objective to say.
This site is not about expressing opinions on issues it is about expressin opinions on the likely results of the electoral process and the gathering and dissemination of information on that process. There are important elections ahead and people have money and reputations (as pundits) at stake.
Therefore Francis and Eastern Eye- Go Away!
2. The impact of immigration will have a massive effect on who does well. Immigration is linked to politics and voting because many immigrants will have certain voting rights. We will not go away until some evidence of how immigrants (whether they be European or from the commonwealth) vote in local, regional or european elections becomes available. The results will also tell us the real motive of unlimited immigration and how it will affect future elections.
Brown, Bush, Berlusconi all in power at the same time?
Holy shite, is there another planet taking immigrants, or did Eastern Eye get there first?
Malcolm
Good luck with your fortnightly pieces Paul!
I hope those non-Italian speakers on here this evening won’t mind too much if I direct the odd question to Andrea in his native tongue. Doubtless he’ll reply in English, so you’ll get the drift.
re 2. We are looking at testing a new system whereby visitors are asked to indicate whether they think specific comments have been useful. Those contributors who are most appreciated will get rankings and visitors will be able to apply a filter.
Just check how it might work from this example site -
http://waternoice.com/2007/10/04/sezwho/
I’ll repeat the question I asked earlier. I’ve “invested” a fiver on Mr Veltroni at 7/1. Have I wasted my money?
There have been on polls in a week and that seemed a good price in a two horse race.
Mike,
would the system work by simply looking at the overall numbers of useful postings or by using some sort of averaging based on the number of postings made.
The reason I ask is that there are some posters on here who only post occasioonally but who are never the less making valuable contributions. If the system works on straight rankings then they may well end up with low rankings due to the infrequency of their postings.
Personally I do not find the ‘off the wall’ postings to be a distraction. This site is many things to many people. In addition some postings that others find of interest I do not and vice versa. It would be a shame to see anyone pushed off here if they are not being offensive.
7- yes.
Unfortunately Berlusconi is going to easily win the lower house, and thus become PM. I picked him on betfair at 1.4’s.
The polls IMO consistently understate Berlusconi’s scores- he should be comfortably ahead by 8-12% on Monday night.
The senate though is another matter, though I anticipate him to secure this too.
7 Chris - I replied in post #325 of the previous thread.
Frm last thread.
351. I’m not going to knock a Limavady girl like Ruth, Francis. Its not her fault she came from there.
Miek Smithson: I get what you are saying but has Brown the skills and ability to know how to get out and does he not have a bit of a bunker mentality? In short, by dint of his way of operating and what we can glean about his personality its hard to see how he would go by choice, other than say a health issue. In short I think he’s stuck.
I can see him having to be removed pre -election in a seriously hefty coup, either by men in grey suits or a strategically timed rebellion or a bit of both. Could that happen?
Yes.
4: ‘Brown, Bush, Berlusconi all in power at the same time?’
Indeed. Thank God the commies are no longer a force - the free world wouldn’t stand a chance!
9. Looking up a few pundits last week it seems that the Senate is in doubt for Berlusconi.
re 10 thanks!
4.
I doubt any of them will be around for long. Bush is gone come January anyway. Berlusconi will probably last less than a year if normal Italian politics is anything to go by. So that just leaves Brown….
See what I mean
7 - The most learned one is doing polling duty all day in Milan (including ensuring that no mobiles are taken into the voting booth, as a means of combating organised crime!), but all the polls throughout the campaign, including during the banned period, have consistently put Silvio 6-8% ahead.
re 13 and could he become PM if he doesn’t win the Senate?
8. “would the system work by simply looking at the overall numbers of useful postings or by using some sort of averaging based on the number of postings made.”
I’m not Mike, but having read the article he linked to, I’ll let it answer for him…
“About 80% of the writer’s overall rating comes from the ratings from readers while 20% comes from the number of comments the writer posts.”
So, those who write infrequent, highly-regarded comments would probably have a higher rating than those who write frequent but poorly-regarded ones.
Sounds good to me!
Andrea mentioned earlier that the turnout by late morning was down about 1% compared with the previous GE - perhaps it was raining in Rome or perhaps not? Is there a market where one can bet on the final turnout?
17. Absolutely no idea meself.
17 - No. The Govt must command a majority in both Houses. Prodi came unstuck in the Senate while still retaining a comfortable majority in the Chamber of Deputies
18 Quite so Alasdair, don’t I remember you being on here once before, many moons ago?
Brown won’t go by choice, and I can’t see a coup happening. The labour party are wusses at the bets of times, plus Brown seems to me to harbor grudges against people. I think he has become distanced from reality slightly, as all PM’s do to a degree. However, he’s becomed convinced the electorate like him and his party, and dislike Cameron and the tories. That the opinion polls are just the people unhappy with him, and that if he can regain the agenda he can still win. None of this is likely.
Years of dodgy decisions, reorganisations, new laws and new directives have left public services in a mess. Teachers are being asked to do more and more work for below inflation wage rises for example, years of literacy hours and numeracy hours have left us with nothing to show for it. The Labour government is stuck in a quagmire of its own making, and Brown nor his cabinet of flotsam and jetsam have the ability to get them out.
17- yes- the winner of the lower house will be the PM, and Silvio will win the lower house.
Without a majority in the senate though will make his government very weak though, and the likelihood of a further election in the near future.
O/T, By the way, there IS a formal mechanism to oust a Labour leader while Prime Minister, which actually does not involve MPs at the first stage. A leadership election while the party is in office can only be triggered following a successful card vote on such a motion at the Annual Conference.
25 Oh yea ……and pigs might fly!
Can we rule out the possibility of Evil Eye being domiciled in Italy? I say this as he has not shown up on our current thing[?] to denigrate PtP and anyone else who, like me, is daft enough to respond to him.
Evil Eye - where are you? Out doing your responsible job as an immigrant and murdering some elderly Russian [?] or Spaniard [?] or Cypriot [?] Well, when you come back here, don’t forget to tell us where you are currently living so that we can inform the authorities that they have a dangerous immigrant in their midst.
Do you here me, Evil Eye, well do you?
Malcolm
24 - Tyson, I’m sure you’re incorrect on that. Silvio will need a majority in the Senate to become PM: he may well achieve that by persuading the small centre-right factions (plus the life senators) if his actual coalition does not gain an absolute majority.
26 - Peter, indeed, indeed…
24 so like last time it’ll be the Senate votes that have us either dreading or hoping - presume the winners bonus applies in lower house?
30 - Ted, Yes on both counts is my understanding.
re 19 no it’s a nice evening in Rome - 15deg and partially cloudy.
re 21/24 we seem to have a difference of opinion here.
33 - Andrea will tell us (I may have to bribe him though).
Berlusconi has drifted from 1/5 to 1/4 in the last few minutes.
33. We need Jimmy Tarbuck in with Winner Takes All.
27 Kiss my bum, boy.
I speak for the VAST majority of British voters, 86%. I am the centre ground. You are the extremist who should be denied the air of publicity.
I shall leave this site because it does not do what it pretends to do.
Politically Extremist, Self appointed guardians of Political Correctness try to suppress the truth.
None of you extremists have even commented on the fact that 86% of the population are against Labour immigration Policy.
None of you extremists have commented on the fact that immigration is considered the MOST important issue in Britain.
37. I’m in that 86%. I think immigration should go down a little lower.
i think you’re a nutjob.
39. Fine.
Just as long as the extremists are driven out, I dont care what you think of me.
re 38 I thought you said you were going in 37.
I think this filtering system sounds good. There are just a couple of posters on here that I find maddening - and they actually put me off reading/posting as they lower the spirits too much.
However, others will obviously feel differently - and plenty may feel the same about me - so a blanket ban would be unwieldy as well as being wildly undemocratic.
Trouble is even these total fruitcakes say the odd interesting thing. So if you filter them you miss the diamonds-in-the-rough. So be it.
Filter ahoy!
I’m sure no one would want to filter ME out…..!
Pb.com used to be dominated by earnest and worthy LD posters, and also worthy and earnest tory ones. Usefulness—so-so.
The most important general-politics posts have come from the excellent Roger and Nick Palmer. They represent different wings of he governing party; it is vital to know what they think.
Maybe betting tip posts could be highlighted in red (or bold)? If there are 400 posts, it would be easy to see where there may be some ‘value’.
6 - “We are looking at testing a new system whereby visitors are asked to indicate whether they think specific comments have been useful. Those contributors who are most appreciated will get rankings and visitors will be able to apply a filter.”
What’s to stop people from scoring each other on purely party political lines? Because that’s what’ll inevitably happen if such a system were to be introduced. Politica, alas, seems to bring out the pettiest of behaviour in people and a ranking system would just degenerate into a party political point scoring exercise.
Before this article gets hijacked. Thanks a lot Double Carpet. It’s great to see more of a focus on the rest of the world.
Could Veltroni pull off a surprise win, or is the election a done deal?
45. I don’t think that’s necessarily true at all. On a purely political level, I find the views of my opponents on here more interesting than those of people I agree with. I know how eurosceptic rightwingers think - I’m one of them. By contrast, I am constantly amazed and stimulated by the crass stupidity and the venal hypocrisy of the left.
I enjoy reading Roger, Tyson, Kieran, Nick Palmer, even the laughably absurd “Mark Senior” for just this reason. Yet I often skip over Tory posts coz I know what they are gonna say.
It’s the same reason I read the Guardian every day. It gives me an adrenaline shot of outrage, as well as being a useful insight into the enemy.
That said, the TOTALLY tedious nutters seem to come from neither right nor left but a strange nether world. Let’s call it the frothosphere. Them’s the ones as needs filterin’.
re 37. Just to say that telling another poster to “kiss my bum” is not acceptable here.
Please note I have just put automated moderation on so that comments from people the site does not recognise will be held up.
47 - Good points, I too enjoy reading a wide range of views here.
Mind you, I draw the line at reading the Guardian… Though I gave up on all newspapers some time ago.
I used to buy the guardian every now and again, but the person who really puts my hackles up is Heffer. He makes Thatcher look like a lefty.
Interesting article.
Italy is in such a poor state, I really feel for them. They desperatly need someone to come along and reform, reform, reform. Unfortunatly their political system stops this from being possible.
Italy is the best advert *AGAINST* PR that you could hope to find.
I find the Sun provides good political analysis and JON GAUNT is the voice of reason!
If Berlusconi becomes PM he’ll probably last a fair time despite either having a small majority or having to cobble something together in the Senate. Prodi’s main problem has always been that he is seen as a staging post for the ex-Communists - D’Alema last time and now Veltroni. So his “allies” have always had it in for him despite his merits. Berlusconi even managed last time to come to a working arrangement with the crazies of the Lega unlike Prodi with the trot-like Rifondazione. Also, there is nothing life senators like Andreotti like better than holding the balance of power and as they say - set a thief to catch a thief!
“telling another poster to “kiss my bum” is not acceptable here”.
Quite so. Leave the bum-kissing to Mrs Dale’s Diary.
re 51 I get heartily fed up with Italy and Israel being used as some sort of example of what would happen here under PR. The Italians are in a mess because frankly their system of PR which gives every party a seat regardless of how few votes they get is frankly completely lunatic. Absolutely no-one is suggesting such madness here.
55. So any twit can get in? No wonder they have so many problems!
48. Mike, I didnt doubt it for a minute. At the same time, getting called a nutjob or a nutter doesnt hurt me. This is just an internet forum. If I were offended, I really would be sad.
The failure to discuss the most important political renders this site irrelevent.
Still, I refuse to be shut up by the leftie extremists representing the 14%. I am perfectly happy to have a reasoned discussion - but some of your posters dont like that do they? They up the ante but dont like someone giving as good as they get. Some feel they can insult people and be immune to insults. Well, in such case, I would repeat my statement as above.
I’m glad I activated your discussions and made your life more interesting. Now, I shall say adieu.
Europe Against Immigration
My money is on Silvio Berlusconi and his anti-immigrant Northern League allies — for Islamic and Eastern European immigration is becoming a big problem in Italia — as well as in the U.K., France, Danemark, Germany and Spain…
All over Europe, resentment of foreigners has spread with the growth of the number of immigrants.
That’s why Berlusconi will win — even though he looks corrupt, old and brings no change.
45 -
Bad idea. This site could easily become like those in the US where not only are those of a different party not welcome but those of a different wing of said party are banned.
50 I used to buy the guardian every now and again
I can’t imagine why you wasted your money - surely there were always multiple copies lying around your staff common room? Perhaps you bought it to read all the jobs.
49 I try to peruse, if not read, all the on-line UK nationals except the Mirror, Express & Star (life is just too short)- the political comment in Guardian and Independent might occasionally make me wonder at failures of parenting and education but its still worth reading - even Polly.
Saw an article in the Observer that I’d missed detail of earlier (read the last bit but not the first few paras) - apparently poor Michael Wills, a Brownite (or ex-Brownite?) in Dept of Justice is being blamed as the person who leaked the Balls/Straw bust up story. Confused me as I thought both sides had denied any such thing so how could there be a leaker?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/13/labour.conservatives
I’m not sure about this filtering business. When I first posted here I was castigated by Nick Palmer, Roger and others for suggesting Gordon Brown would be a monumentally disastrous PM and that he wouldn’t have the guts to call an early General Election. Although I have been proved right on these points (and many others) it would have been a shame if punters failed to benefit from my wisdom just because - at the time - they were unacceptable to the governing class. Today’s ‘off-the-wall rantings’ can become tomorrow’s orthodoxies.
re 56 you need just 2% to get representation. That sort of threshold would have seen 14 UKIP MPs in the current parliament
57. I would be very interested in seeing an article re the impact of immigration, politically, on a Europe-wide basis.
As far as I know we have seen swings to the right in Denmark, Holland, Sweden and arguably France - partly because of immigration. Yet in Spain the opposite has apparently happened, despite enormous immigration there.
I don’t know enough about Italian politics to judge - though I have read stories about serious anti-immigrant feeling - especially versus Romanians and Africans.
So it would be good if some learned PB soul could piece this all together. Then maybe they could reach wide-ranging conclusions, unjustified but the data, but satisfying nonetheless - as happens in all the best journals.
47. So you don’t mind Cameron’s fondeness for Polly Toynbee then?
As for the rankings system, it sounds very interesting and if Martin or Francis or even Mark Senior come out no1, then that’s a good indication of who’s looking at the site. I just hope there’s no end of season relegation involved.
Now over the last 12 months I’ve made a few big predictions. Well, two anyway.
1) Brown would be a disaster as PM.
2) Hillary will not be President.
So now I’m going to make bold prediction no.3. On the 2nd May, the newly elected London Mayor will be:
Ken Livingstone.
I just have a hunch voters will do what they did in 1992. They WANT Boris to be the right person, but when they really think about it, they’ll get cold feet and stick with reliable old Ken.
Well all, have we finally lost the Evil Eye? I have some pretty strange views, like most of us I guess, but I deem it my duty to help to eradicate from Mike’s site the loonier tunes.
When I complained about the site’s trajectory the other evening I was really referring to the Eye and the BNP apologists. Always happy to debate the demerits of the lunatic fringe but the sour oddballs that have been hanging around here need to take their poison to a place where it’s appreciated.
Now the rest of us can get back to enjoying the gentle insults that have become a part of living in post-Attlee Britain.
Malcolm
Personally i think posters are too hard on francis. I don’t think he’s a “wingnut” (other than perhaps in his exaggerated predictions about his chosen party’s success in the near future), and is really pretty coherent in his point of view. Nothing much different in his basic agenda to that of the SNP or Plaid, and both of them are in Govt!
47-It’s the same reason I read the Guardian every day. It gives me an adrenaline shot of outrage, as well as being a useful insight into the enemy.
I could have written that!!!
Without doing an in depth analysis of the Senate elections in Italy I cannot comment, but always thought it gave a regional bonus (except in two regions), and Berlusconi almost won a majority in 2006, so if he can switch a couple of regions he could get a Senate majority.
63
Good point: but the shift to the Left, you might remember, happened right after the Madrid Bombing — a few days before the Elections.
It was an upset victory, for all the polls were predicting an easy victory for the Right — who was promising sending troops to Iraq.
The Spanish people reacted to the bombing by electing the Left; the terrorists won, putting fear of more retaliation in their hearts and minds as a result of more troops in Iraq.
—–
Germany voted also on the Right, in the last Election.
55 & 56 You’ve hit the nail on the head. The small Italian parties have always been used to having a disproportionate influence and it was Berlusconi’s insistence, last time he was in power, to change the electoral law to favour small parties which brought about the present unstable mess. If he gets back in I wouldn’t put it past him to try to change the electoral law yet again. And all this is despite the fact that in a referendum the vast majority of the Italian electorate voted for a a FPTP system which, ironically, coincided with the formation of Forza Italia and all that followed. So all you EU “enthusiasts” who are so keen on referenda beware!
61. But you would have been supported and saved by people like me, on the right, valuing your opinion.
A commenter on pb com would have to be pretty wacky and DULL to get zapped by Mike Smithson’s system, as I understand it - given what a broad church we are.
They’d have to possess literally no interested readers from any side of the argument. That’s rare. For instance I don’t particularly mind Eastern Eye’s posts - I don’t agree with them but I don’t think he’s overly offensive or even especially boring, just splenetic and a bit repetitive. And he’s entitled to his opinions. So I’d defend him if the lefties came a-witch-hunting.
Moreover - again as I understand it - Smithson’s proposal just amounts to filtering, no? So readers can choose to filter out certain posters, on a personal basis, without these posters being excluded overall.
I may have got this wrong, natch.
Great article, always nice to hear about overseas (particularly less well covered parts).
Vis-a-vis rating: I’d only be comfortable with that if a select few (site elders, if you will, selected by Mike) had rating power. I wouldn’t want it myself, and the notion that a relative newbie like myself should have the same rating power as someone like Peter the Punter or a complete newbie who makes his first post today is daft.
It may be that the best form of self-regulation, when necessary, could just be censure. When someone (forget who) made a snarky comment about Brown’s wife I and several others replied that it was out of order. Don’t think the person repeated the comment.
63-There is no serious large anti-immigrant party in Spain. The PP who ran on a more stringent immigration policy actually saw the highest % increase of all parties and had the biggest net gain, albeit 6 seats.
70 - It wouldn’t work. The site would look absolutely crazy with various simulataneous arguments going on all over the place with nobody having any idea what people can or cannot see. So you might be involved in a discussion with somebody only to see someone else get involved and make a perfectly strong point (that you might have made). If your original debating partner had filtered this third person then they would not be able to see this and the debate would then be proceeding on a completely false basis, with one person failing to make points that he thought somebody else was already making, and the other not aware they were ever being made at all!
66. Agree on francis. As you say his views are actually coherent, albeit unusual; and they are no nuttier - when it comes to it - than those of a Celtic nationalist.
And his posts are no more predictable than Stuart Dickson’s. i.e - they are pretty damn predictable, but predictability doesn’t stop me ranting ad nauseam about the EU when I am in the mood.
Tricky.
73. Another good point, albeit poorly paragraphed. Hm. It is difficult. Maybe the site will police itself, as in the past.
I’m glad I don’t run a popular blog. No money and lots of work. Mike Smithson deserves the MBE, maybe even a Baronetcy.
74 - Nice exaggerating on the paragraphing!
73. I agree. (And if I had the power would give your post a ranking of 4 out of 5
).
But I also liked the idea above of certain posts being marked as being relevant to the betting.
Curiously on this censor/ban/filter debate the authoritarians are on the “left”.
Not surprising really when the mainstream left has always been happy to take ex-communists in its ranks while mainstream conservative parties have nearly always shied away from taking ex-Nazis.
70: ‘So readers can choose to filter out certain posters, on a personal basis, without these posters being excluded overall.’
If that’s the case then all well and good; if not, I’m still sceptical: i) Never underestimate the power of herd instinct. ii) My favourite cliche: Sed quis custodiet ipsos custodes (if you and I happen to be on holiday that is).
I was in Rome on holiday last week - there were posters everywhere! What I found weird was unlike in the UK where political advertising trys to convey a message these posters just had a picture of the chap they wanted you to vote for and the party name. No attempt to persuade at all!
If the election was to be won on the number of posters I saw on holiday - then Berlusconi will walk it …
One for the scrapbook?
Gosport two Labour “stalwarts” and ex UKIP Parliamentary candidate
apparently joined and standing for the Lib Dems.
The UKIP to Lib Dem must be a first, or is it?
Obama has been drifting out in the betting over the last several days. I know there was the minor mispeak on people being bitter, but is anyone aware of anything significant going on.
CON
GAIN
EVERYTHING
80 - parties are well advised to beware any defectors.
Interesting idea on the filtering, but it would be too easy for this site to get hijacked totally by the Broadmoor tendency.
77, 78. More good points. Yes. I seem to remember, over the years, that most of the clamour for bans comes from the odiously illiberal left - having been banned myself for (accurately) calling a europhile a liar.
Hmm.
OK, this is one of the quickest voltes-face in pb history - but I’ve gone off the idea of filtering, for all the very good reasons adduced above.
Maybe we should just have comment ranking, like they have on Daily Kos. An alternative might be to ensure Martin Day has a d1azepam before he posts.
Excellent article DC. Look forward to more of these.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 43% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 50%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106435/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Solid-Democratic-Lead-50-41.aspx
OT, but have just returned from a pleasant few days in the Lakes.
Weather not too great for the time of year, a bit nippy generally, but always a joy to be up there and see the Spring lambs gambolling about on the hillsides, the daffodills in full bloom, the odd bit of snow on the peaks, etc.
But what a shame to see this most beautiful part of the country festooned with bright orange “Lib Dems - Winning Here” diamonds.
Now I know they like to think South Lakeland is their new heartland, despite it being one of the most affluent and intuitively Tory parts of the kingdom you could imagine, as what Labour vote there was up there goes yellow, but do they really need to despoil the beauty of the countryside in this way? I didn’t see a single Tory poster or billboard anywhere - you see, your typical Lakeland Tory is obviously more concerned about conserving the beauty of his surroundings than the Guardian/Indy-reading champagne socialists who have bought up all the big houses round there and stuck 20 silly orange diamonds in their acreage…
More like “Lib Dems - Littering Here”…
(How many minutes before M Senior is on with details of the Westmorland Tory Association’s membership returns…?)
81. If you look here -
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/usa/democratic-candidate
- select ‘Historic Odds’, click on ‘implied probability’ and then ‘14d’ you can see that the implied probability of Obama winning the nomination was at the same level a week ago and slightly lower a fortnight ago.
What pb.com should do - and i have suggested it before - is have a ‘thumbs up’/'thumbs down’ rating system ala youtube!
Comment ranking would be a bit of fun. Bring some real raw politics into pb.com
90 - with hundreds of posts a day, that may clog up a hell of a lot of webspace, amd knacker the server. (Sorry, not technical with computery stuff.)
88 - lol, interesting points.
A new Nothern Arizona Uni/Social Research Lab Presidential poll for Arizona :
McCain 56% .. Clinton 34%
McCain 55% .. Obama 33%
Note - Sample 369.
http://www.kold.com/Global/story.asp?S=8154365
Mike Smithson Your site ain’t broke so why are you trying to fix it? It is influential and widely read -as the frequency with which some the ideas on here are plagiarised testify.
Why risk that when that is what gives you your way into pollsters and politics and provides such useful data from so many disparate sources to aid in our individual decision making?
Ranking filters ( as distinct to rankings alone) might be tempting but I am fairly sure they could readily become popular censorship by another name - especially with a political site like this where the posters are often ‘activists’ in one form or another.
One of the benefits of the site is the running discussion, which sometimes gets a little lost but not often. A filter could mean that some posts might be filtered out and the thread of discussion lost to those using the filter. The resultant fracture between the selective readers and the non-filter users would mean the loss of the vitality we find here.
Running some sort of ranking system might also be difficult with the level of contribution this site has. Who would bother to rank all posts on a four hundred post thread? And if not ranked because they are rare posters contributors could easily and ( if they had valuable information) tragically be ignored by those using a filter feature. If as a result of not being read or apparently valued the posters never get a response to a view proposed would they persevere with their posting? Could that not lead to a gradual degeneration into a small coterie or core of the like minded: PBcom oligarchs?
The other option which I favour is the ‘objection’ route, giving an option to report a post as inappropriate with a single click, and this giving you a read out which might lead to your warning and then moderating an individual poster or indeed banning them. That would make sense and not interrupt the collective flow and allow your judgement of what is appropriate on your site to be the dominant one.
Posters who moan on that the site is for classic betting more than anything else might bear in mind there are other forms of gambling which are not through the bookmaker and are informed sometimes by the oddest of discursive political byways on here.
For me this site is interesting because it is about political gambling in general not simply political punts with the bookmaker on political outcomes. Politics is, of course, more than seat spreads and departure markets interesting as those are.
I for one would be rather loth to lose the site, warts and all. Informative, and fun, not to mention influential. That said, it is your site, Mike, and you will take it where you want.
91 - I think that comment ranking would turn it into a really ya-boo dull political forum. Bit like BBC “Have Your Rant.”
What proportion of the posts here are made by people who are actually interested in betting on politics? A minority, (I would bet.) Bringing in ranking would lose the ever diminishing focus on the betting.
91. We could have comment ranking with a possible shake out at the end of the year - relegation as Frank Booth says. i.e. if your comments have failed to impress any one at all, over an entire year, you risk being yellow carded for a month, or something.
A system like that might force people to occasionally think if their comments are in anyway informative/enlightening/entertaining/wise/amusingly nasty.
I think as blogs get more popular - especially good ones like this - such a system is inevitable. We are getting threads now that sometimes reach 500 posts in a day, or even an afternoon.
At some point it is impossible to keep up: so maybe a little winnowing is good.
I accept I am not lacking in prolixity meself! I also accept that is is very tricky, and we don’t want to hoover the cocaine along with the housedust.
Re filtering etc. Why not just have the poster’s name atop the post? That way we wouldn’t have the experience (I’m sure we’ve all been there) of: reading the initial sentences; thinking ‘this is a load of cr*p’; scrolling down to identify the author; remembering that the author never has anything witty, intelligent or interesting to say; deciding that nothing will be lost by scrolling by the post; scrolling the post.
Seems to have been a quiet day on here today . For those of interest the full details of the Mori/Observer mayoral poll is on the newly redesigned Mori website . Perhaps significant is the fact that 32% of voters said they may still change their minds as to whom they vote for before May 1st .
Good luck to ‘El Rug’ on PB’s new overseas venture.
Them bloody ‘Johnny Foreigners’ …. we just luv em !!
97 it could get really busy on here during the election campaign when we MAY see such new features as:
- Ave it’s hourly poll update
- Ave it’s fair minded guide to LD candidates; and
- the Senior report
101 Mmhhhh …. And from next season ‘Ave it’s WWW’ - Weekly Watford Wake !!
I hope we get a blow by blow report on the Italian elections.
Double Carpet has set the scene, and many thanks for that. Will Andrea be available to keep us ahead of the results elsewhere with those insights we had last time that made it all so addictive.
Will The Brylcreme Rug win? And what are the likely effect on the future of the economy and the place of Italy in the Euro?
If voting goes on till tomorrow, how soon will we get an indication of the result or at least reports of declared results?
102 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
76 “But I also liked the idea above of certain posts being marked as being relevant to the betting.”
Sadly, there is a decreasing amount of betting posts on PB.com, probably one of the key reasons why a signicant number of regular posters have left recently. Come back PtP and bring your mates with you!
Firstly, thanks to Double Carpet - I think this will become a great feature of pb.com, and I look forward to the countries becoming ever more obscure!
Loads of interesting takes on the rating and filtering ideas. My thoughts are as follows:
1) The site works very well, and has lots of intermingling discussions, which is its strength - I would worry about the effect that filtering might have to the flow.
2) I am not sure if ranking every comment would be something that many people could be bothered with, and it seems unlikely that it could be done equitably given that we all have our tribal instincts to a greater or lesser degree
3) The only irksome occurrence is when a thread gets hijacked by one or three posters on a soapbox topic, who won’t let it go. These are the posts that, with no conclusion to their discussion, become vituperative and nasty. No-one would mind seeing the back of this sort of behaviour.
So I would suggest:
a) A button on each comment so that readers could highlight ‘Urgent Moderation Required’ (serious nastiness, libellous accusation, or otherwise ungentlemanly behaviour). Arbitration by Our Genial Host would then be automatic, and the poster put in automoderation if found to be in breach of norms of decency.
b) A second button to highlight a ‘must-read’ post - one that typifies the best of pb.com. If a comment gets, say, five or more such referrals from different readers then it is marked as such.
c) For general ‘thread hijacking’ readers should post a standardly-worded comment asking that the thread hijackers desist (”IMMIGRATION DEBATE - STOP HIJACKING THE THREAD - First request”). If five people request that an Off-Topic discussion is ended, then irrespective of our view, it would be polite for those parties to desist. Failing to respect the polite requests will attract the judicial powers of Our Genial Host, who can arbitrate as always.
Those are my thoughts - off for supper, see you all later.
89, thank you that is very helpful.
99 - Only 32%? I think for a lot of people (well non car drivers anyway) they’re heart says Bors but they’re head still says Ken… Having finished reading Andew Gimsons bigraphy of Boris today though I wouldn’t include myself in that number - I really think he’s the best candidate 100% now.
Heres a question if Boris wins - which GLA member will be Deputy Mayor? I’d guess Kit Malthouse but I suppose Richard Tracey, Richard Barnes, Jame Cleverley or (if elected) Andrew Boff might be in with a shout?
105. Yep. It’s about more than the betting but the point PtP regularly makes is that the betting focus forces objectivity on people. And that, hopefully, damps down some of the yah-boo which, if I had a rating button, would get a thumbs down.
Although no a betting man, I do think it is important that the betting element - in fact thye betting emphasis - is not lost on this site.
I suspect that many people, me included, set rather more store by the signs given by this site as to the way the political scene is developing because it is frequented by people willing to nput their money where their mouth is. Anyone can sit and spout about what they think is happening but only those who have taken a long hard look at things from all angles will repeatedly put up money to back up their personal views.
As such the betting element gives this site a lot more credibility than I think some people give it credit for. It is important that that is not diluted.
103 Witan. Hopefully Andrea will keep us well informed with necessary insightful analysis …. such as candidate under garment preferences as well as regional voting preferences !! ….. Bring back ‘The Milan One’ !!!!
105 PfP. Agreed. It’s a tricky one for Mike. Sites evolve and change and not always for the best and sadly there has been much undilluted hackery of late not to mention an upsurge of ‘Twenty Four Hour Creatures’.
Well, I’m rather against the idea of relegation myself. As a fairly Liberal Social Democrat I say Opportunity For All.
If people are being extremely rude, taking over the site with inane ramblings, then some kind of ban might be in order. I’m quite excited about having rankings, though we only need to worry about those right at the top. It’ll probably be a bit Tory-biased, but I can live with that. I might even be able to live with a Cameron government. We’ll have to see.
106 - thread hijacking is part and parcel of the site. The alternative would be to have Mike trying to post dozens of separate threads each day.
This whole debate about filtering is in fact a thread hijack by Mike himself
64 “So now I’m going to make bold prediction no.3. On the 2nd May, the newly elected London Mayor will be:
Ken Livingstone.”
You could of course be right, but the betting markets are saying Boris and by a wide margin.
turnout at 7 PM: 48.689% (52.162% in 2006)
105 - ‘betting’? What’s that?
What time do piolls close tomorrow in Italy. I thought it was 5pm or something like that.
In 2006 the BBC were gleefully reporting that Berlusconi had lost by a sizeable margin by the 6 o’clock news.
I just hope the filter stops some comments from anglophobes too. We’ll see.
In comments that will dissapoint the Obama camp, Jimmy Carter speaking with George Stephanopoulos on ABC, has indicated that he will not endorse any candidate until the convention :
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/04/carter-will-not.html
One other thought on filtering: if outside sources, that is people other than Mike, can start influencing on what does and doesn’t get posted isn’t there the risk of Millbank (or whatever it is now)/Central Office/Cowley Street wannabes causing mischief? A sort of mega-astroturfing. This site is extremely well read let’s not forget.
105 - PtP has left? Could’ve fooled me.
114. Well, that’s why it’s a bold prediction!
98
Even more annoying is reading a post you agree with, then getting to the bottom and finding it has been written by an idiot.
114. I think he could be right as well. In all honesty I just don’t know and have a little on both men and played odds switching. I did post the other day that I felt whilst Boris woudld poll strongly on 1st prefernces when the redistribution went through, he’d find it mighty tight indeed.
Lo and behold minutes later the latest poll showed Boris 2 points ahead after 2nd preferences.
I still see London as a Labour city overall and those demographics make it tough for Boris even though clearly eh can win.
115 Andrea - Grazie per l’informazione come molti di noi hanno già votato, calcolate fino a tre decimali!
(I reckon most of you can work that out!)
24. “yes- the winner of the lower house will be the PM, and Silvio will win the lower house.”
No, a government should get a vote of confidence by both Houses. And every bill should be passed by both Houses.
121. We have had what I think is probably unprecedented levels of action action recently so when it goes quiet, its really does feel like it ad recently it has been quiet.
125..Show off……….
125 PfP. My Italian is a bit sketchy but …. how about you want to cover Andrea in chocolate and lick his …. Ooppps Mike banned that option earlier !!
124 - I thin it’s genuinely too close to call - on one hand I think it’s likely that the Evening Standard has more negative stories in the locker about Ken to publish but I also think that Boris may suffer from last minute jitters bu voters having second thoughts…
117. 3 PM Italian time
126. Prego
But in fairness it was the Interior Ministry that calculated the turnout at its third decimals!
121 So how many posts have you seen from PtP over, say, the past 4 weeks, excluding his Grand National triumph, a dozen maybe?
We used to see twice that number a day sometimes!
100 - The really interesting feature of the Mori data is the small difference in result between their filtered “certain to vote” poll and their traditional “all voters” poll. Only 2-3% swing! Normally this difference is more like 5-6% swing.
Any explanation? Could it be an indication of the support Boris is generating from younger voters? This might also explain why he appears to be doing better in YouGov polls.
130 Jack - Italiano, it’s like riding a bike, you never lose it do you?
133 - Well that’s a relief. He was clogging up the site
Re filtering perhaps the answer is to allow long term posters (on request to Mike and decided by Mike) to have a filtering option so that when they wish they can block out all the posts by plebs (like me) on a thread who do not have the option if they so wish. Basically, it would be an option so that could posters could phase out the background noise should they wish.
Alternatively, one that identifies categories of posters (e.g. political, polls, betting) could be used when the filter is used only those in the category are seen.
It’s a wee bit unwieldy in some ways but it does avoid some of the partisan risks and vagueries of popularity that uncontrolled ranking/ objection style systems can have.
The downside is that it would require some kind of simplistic registration but again that may be a price worth paying to avoid partisan censorship?
133
Having a dozen ideas a month seems pretty good going to me. Perhaps if we all stuck to this standard things would be a little less heated.
Question. How long has the ‘by’ before the poster’s name been a hyperlink so you can link to an exact post? I’ve only just noticed this and have never noticed anyone utilizing the facility on this site.
138 Be a bit quiet though!
135 PfP. I had to take unusual measures to ensure I didn’t lose my Italian bike !!
http://www.geekologie.com/2007/05/29/secure-bike-thumb.jpg
140 PfP didn’t PrP say he would be posting a lot more rarely some time ago as he was concentrating on being a more full time punter elsewhere?
Though of course the failure of the pb.com syndicate to deliver much needed financial reward may have contributed to his shyness
142 correction PtP rather than PrP (another one would be too much)
It’s sad that Italy has such chaotic politics and quite hard to understand too. You’d have thought after 60+ years of peace they’d have found some sort of stability. I think it’s a great place, I have to admit a certain fondness for the food, women etc. Why do they have such trouble when it comes to elections?
141 LOL - Brilliant, how in God’s name did you find that in a couple of minutes!
142 Ted, I shouldn’t think PtP is short of a few bob after Aintree. To be fair, there hasn’t been too much political betting since the glut of U.S. primaries.
re 133. I think Peter had Cheltenham - his first love - then a holiday in Spain - and then I believe he had problems with his lap-top.
ON CNN TONIGHT: OBAMA VS. CLINTON
After the Penn Primary, Obama’s price for the nomination will go down, and Hillary’s will go up.
Right now, it’s about 1.5$ for HRC and 8,5$ for Obama.
My guess is: it will switch toward 3$ vs 7$ after she win the Penn Primary.
So a lot of profit can be made between today and the 22 April.
But tonight, CNN will broadcast an important event : THE COMPASSION FORUM:
The timing of this event is terrible for Obama, because the Pennsylvania primary is in 7 days. So late-deciding voters are starting to tune in. And the guy is on the defensive for his S.F. remarks.
The point is: the topics of tonight’s event is faith and values. So Obama’s ‘Bitter’ remark will spin on and on and on… in front a undecided voters and of people who are trying to find reasons not to vote for a ‘black’ guy wihtout feeling guilty about it.
So: I think it’s a good move to buy Clinton’s stock for the Nomination today. Before the polls show that Obama’s number are going down. And before Clinton starts running adds on TV and Radio about his ‘insults’ to the suburban working class, religious people and gun owners.
re 139. It’s been there for a long time. People ought to use it more.
ERRATUM
The Penn primary in 9 days.
145 PfP. My Milanese tutor !!
135, Not unless your bike gets nicked..thats the British way!
142 I wasn’t thinking of PtP’s pocket but my own! The Pb.com 10 to Follow syndicate unfortunately didn’t win……
ITALIAN ELECTIONS ON BETFAIR
Odds for Walter Veltroni are down to 5.5 — from 8.2 two hours ago…
While we wait for the Italian voters to inject some excitement into our sad lives, this is the Yahoo summary of the two platforms:
Following are some of the proposals they made before voting began in Italy’s parliamentary election on Sunday.
ECONOMY
BERLUSCONI: Cut income tax, housing tax, corporate tax and value-added tax, gradually taking tax revenues as a proportion of gross domestic product down to 40 percent from the record 2007 level of 43.3 percent.
* Raise state pensions, offer “baby bonus” to boost the birth rate and give rental aid to young couples and low earners.
* Attack tax evasion, cut “excessive” public spending and sell or rent up to 700 billion euros (562 billion pounds) in public property (firms and real estate) to cut the deficit and debt.
VELTRONI: Cut income tax by one percentage point per year for three years, lower taxation of bank deposits, raise child benefit and set minimum wage of 1,000 euros per month for temporary workers.
* Provide tax benefits to pensioners and spending vouchers of at least 500 euros per year to 3 million low income families to help cope with rising inflation.
* Tackle tax evasion and sell off real estate. Cut public spending excluding interest on debt by 0.5 percentage points of GDP in first year and by a full point in each of the next two.
CRIME/SECURITY
BERLUSCONI: Increase the number of police on the streets to curb “common crimes” like house and car theft and drug pushing.