“Is John McCain Bob Dole?”
April 14th, 2008
Could the GOP be repeating the mistake of 1996?
Anybody thinking of betting on John McCain for the White House should take a look at one or two articles recently that have started to draw parallels between his presidential bid and the last time the Republicans chose a candidate in his early 70s - Bob Dole.
Like McCain Bob Dole is a war hero having won two purple hearts and one bronze star. Only a few weeks before the German surrender in 1945 was seriously injured while engaged in combat in Northern Italy. When he won the nomination in 1996 he was even older than McCain - 73. Bill Clinton went on to win his second term by a massive margin.
The latest edition of New York magazine (hat tip Taegan Goddard PoliticalWire) carries a long critique by John Heilemann on the McCain campaign which is best summed up in the following extract.
“….Yet for all the hosannas being sung to him these days, and for all the waves of fear and trembling rippling through the Democratic masses, the truth is that McCain is a candidate of pronounced and glaring weaknesses. A candidate whose capacity to raise enough money to beat back the tidal wave of Democratic moola is seriously in doubt. A candidate unwilling or unable to animate the GOP base. A candidate whose operation has never recovered from the turmoil of last summer, still skeletal and ragtag and technologically antediluvian. (“Fund-raising on the Web? You don’t say. You can raise money through those tubes?”) Whose cadre of confidantes contains so many lobbyists that the Straight Talk Express often has the vibe of a rolling K Street clubhouse. Whose awkward positioning issues-wise was captured brilliantly by Pat Buchanan: “The jobs are never coming back, the illegals are never going home, but we’re going to have a lot more wars.” A candidate one senior moment—or one balky teleprompter—away from being transformed from a grizzled warrior into Grandpa Simpson. A candidate, that is, who poses an existential question for Democrats: If you can’t beat a guy like this in a year like this, with a vastly unpopular Republican war still ongoing and a Republican recession looming, what precisely is the point of you?..”
Latest betting on who will be next President is here. My view is that until now there has been almost no examination of McCain’s weaknesses and whoever comes out top in the Obama-Hillary contest will end up as President.
Mike Smithson
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I saw McCain on “The View” recently. I was struck by how young he looked relative to all those grandpa jokes Letterman spouts - will didg it out.
McCain may take some comfort from the Italian GE if the pro-Iraq war Berlusconi is returned.
I seem to have seen this article earlier.
No he isn’t.
Berlusconi down to 1.05. Well that thats then.
Italy- what have you doe to yourselves?
5 - He could be a ’shape shifter’.
6 - It was that message of support from Gordo wot dun it for Walter
New Temple University Presidential Poll for Pennsylvania :
McCain 40% .. Clinton 51%
McCain 40% .. Obama 47%
Note - No full link yet to full data.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_temple_pennsylvania_gener.php
Clinton won in 1996 but still with less than 50% of the vote.
LINK HERE;
http://abc.go.com/daytime/theview/video
Go to Hot Topics 4/10 - John McCain. Looked sharp and on top of his game…
But there’s a clear difference.
In 1996 Clinton was pretty much entrenched - young, charismatic, a successful first term. Sure, he wasn’t to everyone’s tastes, but once you’re the incumbent you don’t really need to be, just as long as people have a general view you’ve done an OK job it’ll take a stellar candidate to unseat you. In that circumstances any GOP nominee, never mind Bob Dole, would have found it difficult to win.
McCain’s age will be a factor, but he could turn it to his advantage a la Ronald Reagan. Will it work? Who knows, but Obama, fully in the glare of the spotlight at the moment, has had a few wobbles and it only takes one awkward statement to unsettle the applecart.
People underestimate McCain at their peril. Sure, he’s the underdog, but I doubt he’s Bob Dole, either.
Anyway - Grandpa Smithson, shouldn’t you be showing some support for “Grandpa Simpson” ?
‘Drudge’ is reporting a new North Carolina poll from JWC Civitas that indicates “a widening Obama lead”.
His link fails and the think tanks site is down.
Bob dole did a good job in that the BBC in 1996 where saying Clinton will win by a “landslide”. WHilst it was a good win in terms of state numbers and electoral college - Clinton failed to get more than about 49% of the vote and IRC Dole was 43% - about a 6 point difference. Not great but no disaster either! Anyway Dole went from being Politically Impotent in that election to advertising Via*g.ra!
I can tell you thing- McCain is not going to be president of the US. I just keep on helping myself on betfair whilst Obama is above evens.
I will put my ill gained winnings on Berlusconi on Obama.
To tell you what though I would have gladly lost the 200 squid I had on Berlusconi to see him lose. Best money ever spent- unfortunately it ain’t going to happen.
Mind you Obama has gaffed today about the plight of poor working people - maybe he has been studying Boris’s Liverpool comment?
13 PC. What about Great Great Grandpa’s ??
Jack W is 105.
8 john o- about to drown my Italian sorrows with a good bottle of chianti. Hopefully I should be warmed up to start some late night abuse on pbCOM.
Has anyone got an Italian link per favore?
McCain can beat either Obama or Clinton, but probably won’t. Both Democrats have negatives and are still highlighting each others at the moment, though perhaps not as viciously as earlier in the campaign. Both are still spending large amounts of money that they can’t spend again in October - unless they can raise it twice.
On the other side, McCain might not be the GOP’s natural choice of a candidate, but it’s still a formidable election machine (both the last two presidentials, 5 of the last 7, and 7 of the last 10).
McCain is old, but then people have known that for ages and the head-to-heads haven’t been too bad. He does have less slack on perceived age-related issues - health, mental agility etc - than either Obama or Clinton, but if he can avoid looking and acting old he should be OK. Reagan’s attitude was young, which went a long way to countering any age issues he had. Whether McCain can pull that off is a different matter - he is a different man and a different politician from Reagan.
What may prove crucial could be the debates. If McCain flounders, it will be disastrous for his campaign, but the risks are not all on his side. Like when Foreman won back a world title when well into his forties, McCain might take an oratorical beating from Obama and then deliver a killer line: unlikely, but not impossible.
18) Article is clearly ageist, I never thought Mike would turn on one of his own
Clinton plays elitist card against Obama
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/14/uselections2008.barackobama
Obama -”They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
Mike, I was struck by your implication that Brown wouldn’t fight a general election if he COULD lose it. You might be right, but I doubt it. Few politicians would avoid even fighting a general election as a party leader, unless he was SURE of losing the election. Then, yes, I think you may well be right that Brown would resign first.
Ken drifting in. Last betfair match 2.52.
20-Interior ministry links, but they seem to be down/crashing/overburdened…
http://politiche.interno.it/politiche/camera080413/C000000000.htm
http://politiche.interno.it/politiche/senato080413/S000000000.htm
McCain will win and win comfortably (against Hillary) or by a landslide (against Obama). He’s not too old (and in fact he has made less gaffes than either Obama or Hillary) while both Clinton and Obama have lobbyists running their campaigns (and don’t get me started about Michelle Obama. I would possibly bet against Obama rather than on McCain but that is because the odds on Obama are completely and utterly ridiculous whereas the odds on McCain are merely too long.
12. Agreed. This is an open year, unlike 1996. Plus McCain’s oponent will be either a black man or a white woman (although a negligible chance of the latter.)
Either way, even more open than an average open year. Plus, even in an open year, the Veep is usually in the race. Not this time. Even more open, then…
Plus, Dole was a particulary wooden and crabby candidate. McCain not so bad, despite his age.
No real comparison with 1996, then…
27 - Matthew, you would do well to look at this sita and see how much better Obama does against McCain than Clinton. Can you counter the figures in any meaningful way?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
24- I am convinced now that Brown will fight an election that he knows he will lose in the interests of his party. Brown must take the flak to enable the party to energise with someone else after the defeat.
Brown must go though in 2009, like Shroeder (year early) and not allow his party to drift another year and face a bigger trouncing.
It would not be in Labour’s interests to change leader just to win the next election. Would lead to a Major like premiership, only worse.
30. But if Brown had the interests of his party at heart, and was prepared to lose the next election if necessary, he’d govern in a consensual way to hold Labour together. No 42 days’ detention. No tax rises on the poor.
Brown is still following the summer 2007 strategy of trying to out-macho the Tories. Once the electorate decides it wants Labour out, that strategy will amplify a Labour defeat instead of cushioning it.
30. You could say that it has already happened.
Politicians in this country are not as shrewd as some other countries, in other countries when the government has run out of steam they just resign and have an election. In this country they paddle on and on and on. Pointless!
Its a great paradox really, some MP’s like one well known on here has lost his seat before a ballot has been cast.
So it is in his interests to keep buggering on until the existing manadate runs out in 2010. Whereas others in less marginal seats would be forgiven for wanting an election now for fear of a deffered election making a defeat into a rout and the possibility of them losing their livlyhood as well.
I think there is always a danger in saying “X is the new Y”.
1st) In 1996 Dole was up against an incumbent President standing for reelection. This time the contest is wide open.
2nd) McCain is an anti-establishment candidate, which Dole certainly wasn’t.
I still think Obama will pip it, but I have placed a trading “buy” bet on McCain.
There will be sometime before November when McCain rallies. Who knows, he could even win?
I wouldn’t be so quick to write him off.
20
peter2’s links @ 26 plus Reuters latest here
Is there a site giving projections as well as wins for Italian election - seem to remember one from last time.
30. Tyson - if you believe that, there is value to be had in selling Brown-Weeks on Spreadfair.
I think the current date is Nov/Dec 2009, something like that??
Latest Gallup Presiential and Primary Poll Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 40% .. Obama 50%
Note - No ‘bittergate’ effect here.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106504/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Numbers-Holding-Strong.aspx
Didn’t Bob Dole lose because of a right-wing third candidate? Ross Perot took a significant number of votes, something like 10%. Clinton was only something like 50% wasn’t he?
37) Jack W - I think its a little early. “Bittergate” was noisiest yesterday - next couple of days should be interesting.
35
see posts 26 and 34
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9564.html - very interesting article - particuarly the ref. to Ohio, Florida and NM.
http://www.repubblica.it/speciale/2008/elezioni/camera/index.html
http://www.corriere.it/Politica/2008/elezioni08/
***New Market - London Assembly***
Betfair have just put up a new market on total London Assembly seats as I requested. I’ve offered some odds to get things going.
I think this is much more interesting than the original constituency and list seats, which require some serious anoraking. All you really need to do is guess total vote shares in the list part, subject to the Tories possibly doing better because of a strong constituency showing.
PS does anyone know why the BNP and Respect didn’t get seats, with 4.7-odd percent, whereas UKIP and the Greens both managed 2 on 8.7-odd per cent?
36- casino- I think Brown will stay, but I just hope he doesn’t limp on hoping for something to turn up.
I have just had to tell my very lovely Italian wife that Berlusconi’s back. She is not that amused to say the least. The fact that I will win a few quid doesn’t sofetn the blow.
44 - The 5% threshold
38 - Perot may have been right wing, but his supporters were a broad spread of people - not necessarily natural Republicans.
Mike, you could equally ask, is McCain the new Reagan?
Reagan won the Presidency at the age of 70.
He won a second term, he got his VP elected President after him, and he left with the high approval ratings. In nearly 200 years no other US President has achieved all this. Perhaps age is actually an advantage. As others have pointed out Dole is not a fair comparison with now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan
And it’s a bit rich for someone in his sixties to be ‘ageist’ against a politician only a few years older. What going on?
Why repeat this old Democrat ‘attack ad article’ on this blog in this very, very unbalanced way? Are we beginning to see a complete loss of impartiality from Mike?
Mike : ‘My view is … whoever comes out top in the Obama-Hillary contest will end up as President.’
If this is now a site for left-wing activists only, please tell us Mike?
Left-wing posters seem to have free-reign to abuse others, without ever being warned to stop. Look at the terrible behaviour from Nick Palmer yesterday, who gets away with outrageous abuse. Why is he allowed to label those he disagrees with as ‘creatures’, etc. in such a hostile way without being punished? He’s does this every month to someone or other.
ThaT IS, surely, to win two seats, surely you ought to need more than double the number of votes you need, to win one seat? But both Respect and the BNP did win more than half what UKIP and the Greens got. Respect and the BNP didn’t get any seats (thank god) and UKIP and the Greens got two each. See http://www.london.gov.uk/gla/elections/londonwide.jsp
49. You need at least 5% of the vote to be included in the distribution of seats.
49 - Yes, because of the 5% threshold you have to exceed to qualify for any seats. Both the BNP and RESPECT failed to beat the threshold and hence did not win any seats.
51 - if, just suppose, 21 parties shared the vote equally, at just under 5%, then would nobody get any top up seats at all?
I don’t think Brown will do what is best for the party. His policies so far have been a continuation of Blairism, basically trying to take the tories policies while appeasing the unions with peacemeal policies. The 42 days, the continued war in Iraq, the 10% income tax removal, cosying up to Mrs Thatcher all point to him trying to be more like Tony Blair. That won’t work though, Brown ha snone of the subtle touch nor media skills of Blair. He’s also reaping the poor economic decisions of the last eleven years.
re 24 he’s probably drafting a new Parliament Bill to repeal Section 7 of the Parliament Act 1911 - that’d put off the evil day for another two years.
54 - perhaps he’d give us a referendum on that if we went back to the septennial rule.
35-The winning list in the Camera will get 340 seats plus whoever wins the one in Val d’Aosta and 12 for Italians living abroad, again with the winning list getting 55% of the seats. Remaining to those over the threshold (4%).
In the Senate whoever wins in the region gets 55% of the seats, ditto for the 6 foreign seats. There is a slightly different basis in Val d’Aosta (1 seat) and Trentino-Alto Adige (7 seats-FPTP). The remaining 45% is split among the lists/parties getting over the threshold (8%).
It’s actually not as straightforward as this (!!) but grosso modo this should be enough.
I would imagine that the top up seats would be divided amongst those that have won constituency seats (Which must by definition have been won) such that the totals were proportionate to the proportion of the parties vote in the list vote. (ie assuming that 3 parties won constituency seats under FPTP, and all had 4.5% of the ‘top-up’ vote then the top-up seats would allocate to them such that they all ended up with 33% of the overall seats)
57. I don’t know how London’s electoral rules are drafted, but in Germany you can get around the 5% top up rule by (I believe) winning three or more FPTP seats.
So if Party X won 3 constituency seats but had 2.5% of the nationwide vote, they’d still be entitled to 2.5% of the seats in the Bundestag… that’s how I’ve always read it, anyway…
56. This must surely be the most bizarre electoral law ever in existence, anywhere in the world. It’s basically FPTP in a single national constituency for the Chamber, but the guarantee of stability that this would provide is negated by the system used to elect the Senate. Presumably Berlusconi has a plan to make things even more complicated when he returns to power.
56 The confusion last time led to all kinds of betting opportunities, with Berlusconi going from heavy odds on to outsider and back again as Betfair patrons tried to follow the minutiae of the system. It was one of the busiest days in the history of pb.com. Andrea was a godsend.
41 - a repost of what I put on the last hread which puts that comment into perspective -
“As per the site above, the states where either Obama or Clinton is ahead of McCain but not both is as follows -
Clinton ahead but not Obama -
Arkansas
Ohio (Obama less than 6% adrift from Clinton)
West Virginia
Obama ahead but not Clinton -
Colorado
Iowa
New Hampshire
New Mexico (Clinton less than 6% adrift from Obama)
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
Wisconsin
Other states where one appears to be a fair degree closer than another but still behind behind McCain by 6% or less.
Clinton is a fair degree closer to McCain in -
Florida
Missouri
Obama is a fair degree closer to McCain in -
Alaska
North Dakota
North Carolina
Virginia
It’s as though there were two different races depending on who is running.”
Thanks Neil and Matt. Sorry, I carried on as I hadn’t seen the later posts.
I think it’s inconceivable that all parties would get less than 5%. The most fragmented election I’ve ever seen I think was the first (and only) democratic Russian parliamentary election, in the 90s. Even then there were three or four parties over the 5% threshold, even if only just, with something like 7% or 12% each.
Anyway I expect I’ve mis-priced some of my London Assembly odds, so you should all have a look!
McCain will fry the opposition!
63
Why will McCain not release his medical records?
Malcolm
re 58 not in London. You have to get 5% to get any top-up seats. Without this threshold the result last time would have been
C 9
Lab 6
LD 4
Gr 2
UKIP 2
BNP 1
Respect 1
336 Previous Thread I would have rated the likelihood [of Brown remaining in office throughout 2008] as 99.9%
Fernando - probably just as well you never thought of becoming an actuary!
62 - Oh, I agree that it’s unlikely, it’s just an interesting question as I don’t believe that it’s adequetly answered anywhere (the london elects site is spectacularly devoid of actual information) and I wouldn’t be surprised given Labour’s legislative ineptitude for the occurance not to be covered in the legislation.
67 - “and I wouldn’t be surprised given Labour’s legislative ineptitude for the occurance not to be covered in the legislation”
If it wasnt covered (I have no idea as I havent bothered to read it) then it would surely be Parliament’s failing rather than the Labour Party’s alone. Though hardly a huge failing given the stunning unlikelihood of such an event.
65. What are the chances of the Lib Dems reaching parity with Labour in Assembly seats? To do that, they’d need to gain a constituency seat from Labour (presumably Lambeth and Southwark) and avoid losing a top-up seat in consequence; or, hope that Labour slips by two seats and the Lib Dems hold their own. Any thoughts?
60 isn’t as much fun this time by the looks of it - IIRC Berlusconi’s list had a bare majority of votes in Senate but the regional split delivered majority to Prodi very late. Looks this time as if Berlusconi is too far ahead for that though suppose its still down to who carries the regional majorities.
The Italian’s voted very strongly for FPTP in 1991 but Parliament ignored that in going for Additional Member system (75% FPTP & 25% AM) and added complication to the AM system to protect the smaller parties and retain closed party lists - Prodi intended to return to the AM system but hadn’t the votes.
48 - PaulS - It’s a bit rich to accuse Mike of impartiality for a single negative article on McCain. The presumptive GOP nominee has had about as easy a ride from the Fourth Estate as any in history, so for variety, it’s good for all of us to examine the downsides.
Only one Presidential nominee has been this old at his first attempt - and that was Dole. It is inevitable that this issue is raised: you’ve raised a valid counter argument in Reagan. You invalidate your contribution by assuming that Mike has committed a hatchet-job because he is a secret communist.
“If this is now a site for left-wing activists only, please tell us Mike?” - Given the number of recent (equally wrong) complainers recently who have been talking about a ‘Tory takeover’ of the site, I think this is just silly.
Nick Palmer is a regular and respected commentator, who along with Roger is one of the few Labourites still prepared to put their heads above the parapet on this site, and defend the government. Nick may have many talents, but is not in the same league for firethrowing as some of our contributors who are adamantly not of the Left.
For the record, ‘Creature’ isn’t a term of abuse that Nick employs against people who disagree with him - it is part of the site’s lexicon for the deranged partisan tubthumpers (of all stripes) who come on and bore us all to death with their mad arguments about immigration/buggery/tax.
68, although, with no politicians, London could end up thriving.
64 That is the key question - McCain’s age will be an issue if his much delayed medical records show any recurrence of his cancer or other, even minor, health concern. He’s taking longer to release them than the ZEC is in releasing the Zimbabwe election results and in both cases it does make one suspicious.
48 PaulS
McCain is hated by so many Republicans; his base just isn’t there. Most of my Republican friends have already said that they will vote Libertarian. At the moment a number of independents are dithering, but you need to remember that if Obama is the candidate, and he will be, there’s a huge new electorate that have been signing up to vote and they aren’t Republicans, they aren’t even Democrats, they are Obamists. And that is why the polls are all over the place.
Having seen the phenomenon of his ground game and the collapse in the Republican base, including funders and workers, and it’s obvious when you see it and listen to what is being said, then you realise that poor old McCain is so out of touch.
He has already embarrassed himself with his mistakes on Iraq and Iran and his party are terrified that he’s going to look pathetic in the general election. Remember the insiders went for Romney and have hated McCain since he threatened to leave the party. McCain’s campaign was an insurgency. I guess Obama’s is too. The difference is that McCain’s comes with the hated lobbyists, whilst Obama’s comes with new voters.
Burnt toast never smells good, and that is McBush.
Malcolm
The main candidates for the London Mayoral election will face off, just three days before polling day, in a live televised debate on Sky News.
SKY NEWS:
Labour Mayor Ken Livingstone, Conservative Boris Johnson and Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick will face each other in front of an audience of over 300 in the The Decision Time London Debate, broadcast Live on Sky News at 8pm on Monday 28th April.
The final TV debate in what has become an increasingly tight campaign will be chaired by me, Adam Boulton, in an event staged by Intelligence Squared.
39 PC. I would have thought that as ‘bittergate’ has been playing strong since Saturday that either the Gallup or Rasmussen trackers would have picked up any response. Neither has. Obama has firmed up with Gallup and the Rasmussen has trended back to Obama !
However it will be the Pennsylvania polls with recent surveying that need to be carefully analysed. There’ll be plenty of them this week.
Osborne currently being disembowelled by Jon Snow on C4 News.
36 Casino - Like many before you, you have failed to read the small print appearing alongside the mileadingly entitled “Brown Weeks” Spreadfair market, as follows:-
“If Gordon Brown announces his resignation during this period the market will be settled at the time of the next General Election as stated above and not the week of his resignation.”
64 - its none of the electorate’s business!!!
77 - Gabble welcome back - I have miseed your insight LOL
73
Spot on Ted. America wants change, anything to get away from the child Bush, and an old man and his health problems surrounding himself with the hated washngton lobbyists does not represent ‘change’ to the American people.
Malcolm
72 - there wouldn’t be no politicians; there would of course be a mayor and the constituency members. Given the utility of the GLA to date, I’m not sure many of us would notice a difference.
78 - I was going to say that too, and then realised that Tyson was suggesting that the election will be in 2009 whatever, so the Brown weeks market would still be appropriate as a ‘when’s the next general election market’
New JW Pope/Civitas Presidential and Primary Poll for North Carolina :
McCain 50% .. Clinton 37%
McCain 48% .. Obama 39%
Clinton 27% .. Obama 45%
Note - This is the ‘Drudge’ reported poll noted @ 14.
http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/obama-widens-lead-clinton/
79
Wrong again. It is. American presidents are examined annually. The electorate is talking about McCain’s age and his health; if he doesn’t release the records he’s done for. Your view may be more politically correct, but it doesn’t wash with Americans; remember they saw the collapse in Reagan’s mental powers during his second term.
Malcolm
Veltroni concedes defeat.
84 - if that is the system for US presidents then yes it is a problem for McCain - good job we don’t have that over here - it really is none of the electorate’s business!
But McCain will still win…….
Reading the Times article todayon ‘Bittergate’, I was struck by how ‘European’ Obama came across. His words taken in context, and not distorted at Hillary’s hands, would cause little offence here.
Hillary’s reaction on the other hand is very American in a Charlton Heston/Bush sort of way. She is appealing to the feelings [guns/religion] normaly associated with Repuplicans.
With every word she speaks, my personal distaste of her deepens.
87 - please God, not “Bittergate”.
Must proof read, even [especially] with kids yelling and dog barking etc…
O/T - has anyone mentioned Nick Palmer’s quote from here being lifted and used in the Standard’s diary column? It wasnt particularly damaging but I hope it doesnt become common or put people off posting.
Not my word. Came across it on here earlier. Personally, I like gates. Very useful for people with kids and dogs.
re 86 Lord Owen reckons that Blair lied about his state of health throughout his second term.
Neil.
No idea what you are referring to. Could you give details?
82 Lennon, You’re probably right - but having read Tyson’s post 30 again, I’m not sure I understand when he’s suggesting that Brown should call a GE.
Q2 2009 would appear to be an act of suicide - there’s absolutely no way the economy will have recovered by then, in fact it’s far more likely to be worse than it is now.
re 90 what quote?
90 oooooh hope i don’t get quoted in the press!
Good job my identity is highly secret……..
71. ‘Nick Palmer is a .. respected commentator’
Speak for yourself Morus, and perhaps a dozen other left-wing activists on this site. Do not speak for me, the majority of posters on this forum or the majority of its readers. Most posters find Nick’s posters patronising and pretentious, as see everyday from posters replies. No seems to ‘respect’ him very much at all.
But Nick Palmers abusive behaviour yesterday was outrageous. He is an utterly unacceptable contributor to this forum. Morus, has the nerve to show his own left-wing prejudices in his defence of Nick Palmer.
Effectively he says ‘Nick Palmer is allowed to be abusive because he disagrees with others on various issues - Nick Palmer is right, but the others are wrong, Nick Palmer has the correct views or interests, the other posters have the wrong ones’. In my view, Nick Palmer and Morus should both be banned from this site.
They have no respect for other people views, and want to be abusive whenever it suits them in serving their left-wing prejudices.
Dan Rooney, owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers has just endorsed Barack Obama. Rooney is loved all over the west of Pennsylvania and his endorsement was announced in a letter in a traditionallly conservative Pittsburgh paper. Unimportant in the UK, important in PA.
Link:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/14/105354/908/952/495354
Bob Casey and the Rooney family covers a whole of that which is loved in the state.
Malcolm
92. He has said this before.
He also reckons he was bonkers [’hubris complex’] for a while [the bit before the Iraq invasion].
Hubris Complex = you think you are a god sent genius who always makes the right decisions, [for Britain, and hard working families…etc ?]
92 Chris - can you provide a source please?
93 / 95 - Just something about Boris being favourite for London Mayor but the current odds not being attractive - the kind of comment we all post. The editor of the diary was recently covered in horse manure by a disgruntled subject of his column but I’m sure Nick wouldnt stoop to that ;-).
Mike.
Anyone who labels another poster ‘creature’, etc. should be banned from his forum for six months. Justice must be seen to be done.
Ban Nick Palmer.
New EPIC/MRA Presidential poll for Michigan :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 37%
McCain 41% .. Obama 43%
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080414/POLITICS/804140415/1361
re 100 well the first thing that comes up with a “Lord Owen Blair heart” Google search is this from the Telegraph. No doubt you could find much more.
Berlusconi’s victory is just reward for his political heroism in facing down the murderous despot Saddam Hussein and supporting the Iraqi people in their struggle for self-determination.
96. The day after the next GE you will be. The headline:
CON GAIN ALL UK! on every paper!!!!!!!
Hi. I finally got back from polling stations.
Silvio won. It looks as he will get a 20-25 seats majority at the Senate.
Total collapse of The Left. UDC not getting a stellar result, but surviving.
105 - Is that the official Brown line Gabble, or are you off on a solo run with this one?
108 - Better luck with next year’s GE Andrea
Two words to the headline article. Total & Bollocks.
Dole was never going to be a winner, McCain remarkably deaspite two terms of Bush and wobbling economy might still be. He is most definitely not favourite but cant be easily ruled out.
Thats like me saying any other black man has failed to become president so Obama will as well.
Of course thats a totally shite premise….but hey since we seem to be comparing…why not.
re 100 or a much more detailed article here in which he blames Blair’s loopiness around the time of the Iraq war to prescribed beta blockers.
Re Blair heart problem/hubris bonkerness…
The Times ran an article which, if I remember rightly, was penned by Owen himself a few months ago.
He has also given an interview which ran on Radio 4.
102 PaulS. We are all gods creatures Paul !!
Sadly I think when god had that Sunday off Noel Edmonds stepped in and made some loony tune creatures that turn up here pretty often !!
re 109 next year? You surely mean this autumn’s!
97, PaulS,
Nick Palmer has been and remains to be a respected commentator. His “slant” on things is no more than those of many other commentators here across the political spectrum. His notes on the way that backbench PLP members see things has been very helpful in the past; site members who trusted his judgement on how long TB would go on for made money.
Morus is another highly respected poster, whose insights on the US race have been very useful for many. He also remains polite and pleasant and an asset to the site (as does Nick).
You on the other hand appear to be nothing more than a creature of bile, spitting your venom over anyone who disagrees with your views. I can not remember any posts of any utility whatsoever from you.
Just so you understand how this disagreement is coming over to a member of the centre-right, here.
108 “Is that the official Brown line Gabble, or are you off on a solo run with this one?”
At the risk of repeating myself, Brown, as leader, deserves all the loyalty he showed the last leader.
97/102 Well, Mike - you’ve been told. I think bans against Nick Palmer and I should commence as soon as we have been forced to renounce our mutual admiration for Comrade Castro, and sung the Internationale backwards.
Heaven forfend that we at pb.com should disappoint, and thus lose, as valued a contributor as PaulS.
Creature.
107 bad luck - what do the seat projections look like?
I’m sick, sick, sick, of all of this ageism, I’ll have y’know I’m….errr…..errr…..ummmm, has any seen my glasses, they seem to have disappeared…..
107 Andrea. Here’s something to cheer you up !!
He’ll put a spanner up your works ….. Oh er Missus
http://www.psybt.org.uk/Portals/0/Region%20-%20Grampian/cf_img_alanD.jpg
117 PaulS is a new name here - could there be some connection to yesterday’s poster from the East?
111,112 Many thanks.
97 - I think Nick P is maybe still somewhat repected by the punters here because of his defending of the Brown next leader price - which is fair enough, in a way, but one could argee that it was just another of his ultra-establishment views.
o/t - when nonone responds to me on pbc I like to pass the time by fighting the good fight and clean up wikipedia - But I have no idea where to start with this one-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Residential_property_market_in_the_United_Kingdom
C’mon people - edit away - you can’t make it any worse.
Italian election latest
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1312767,00.html
Owen on Blair. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3559284.ece
You can buy his book on Amazon!
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/13/the-mori-trend-is-turning-to-boris/#comment-632413
I think we’ve found our man.
106 you are the future!
Con gain Glasgow N
123:total nuclear property meltdown?
118. Veltroni should won at the Senate just in Emilia, Tuscany, Umbria, Marche and Basilicata. In all other “swing” regions he’s trailing by:
Liguria: by 1.1% (with just 20/30 polling places to report back)
Abruzzo: by 3% (with around 300 places to report back)
Lazio: by 2.3% (with 1,500 polling places to report back)
Calabria: by 7.4% (with around 600 places to report back)
Sardinia: by 2.9% (with around 200 places left to report back)
Pollster.com takes a stab at what to make of the Pennsylvania polls and any potential ‘bittergate’ fallout :
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/comparing_pollsters_in_pennsyl.php
126 - That’s also the quote published in the Standard’s diary (the bit about the mayoral race not the bit outing the latest incarnation of one of our more persistent creatures)
Dole had the advantage of running against an incumbent Democrat. McCain has the disadvantage of following an incumbent Republican.
Americans are supporting the Democrats far more than the Republicans at the moment.
And while the Clinton/Obama contest continues the Democrats are still registering voters and recruiting supporters in big numbers.
As an admittedly p1ssed off Labour voter,I have found Nick Palmer always courteous and reasonable,as are many Conservaive posters,and Lib Dems too.
I confess to having gone completely OTT when a little tiddly in the past,and regret any offence caused.
(I find the differentials between Obama and clinton in various states intriguing-I guess they ‘even each other out’,and if I was to put my neck on the line,I predict NcCain will ‘lose well’,with c.200 electoral college votes)
I DO NOT intend to repeat my lapse of having a ciggie on Saturday night-I now state my non-smoking record as a cricket score-88 days for the loss of one wicket/ciggie
Evening all
Just a few thoughts having followed some of the discussion on here today:
1) I’m quite prepared to waste my vote on May 1st. Some LDs may wish to vote Ken or Boris as second preference but not this one. I find the prospect of either as London Mayor about as attractive as being invited to stick my head in a bucketful of scorpions. See my blog (if you can be bothered) for my views on the other candidates (which a UKIP person has commented on already - they are a sensitive crowd).
2) Gordon Brown staying until 2010 - my thought is that John Major, who must have known he was going to lose and lose big, stayed till the bitter end as well. It may well be that the defeat of 2010 will prove hugely cathartic for Labour - it all depends on what they do with defeat. In politics, how you deal with defeat is as important as how you deal with victory.
3) I don’t normally comment on the US scene as there are many better-informed contributors. My view has always been that McCain will beat Clinton but would lose to Obama - I see no reason to change that.
From the New York Post (no, me neither)
H R CLINTON: “We had two very good men and men of faith run for president in 2000 and 2004,” Mrs. Clinton said at a forum on faith televised live on CNN last night. “But large segments of the electorate concluded that they did not really understand or relate to or frankly respect their ways of life.”
‘Obama as an elitist in the same way as Gore and Kerry, which means he’ll lose’. I get the narrative, but is it wise for Clinton to be implicitly criticising Al Gore, when he is perhaps the most influential undecided SuperDelegate?
I see the news today is dominated by the deaths of the 5 girls in Ecuador. Nothing, however, has happened since yesterday. This is not news. It is not the job of Sky or the BBC to orchestrate days of National Mourning or parade the poor parents in front of the cameras.
“71. ‘Nick Palmer is a .. respected commentator’
Speak for yourself Morus, and perhaps a dozen other left-wing activists on this site. Do not speak for me, the majority of posters on this forum or the majority of its readers. Most posters find Nick’s posters patronising and pretentious, as see everyday from posters replies. No seems to ‘respect’ him very much at all.
But Nick Palmers abusive behaviour yesterday was outrageous. He is an utterly unacceptable contributor to this forum. Morus, has the nerve to show his own left-wing prejudices in his defence of Nick Palmer.”
Get lost, Paul S. I am a Conservative through and through, and I respect Nick Palmer and welcome his presence here (as I do that of Stewart Jackson). Of course I hope he is unseated in Broxtowe by his able Conservative opponent but my differences with him are political and not personal. I welcome the posts of any MP. Nick Palmer is highly respected on all sides, even if we Tories will work very hard to get him out. There is no rule that says you must be uncivil to your political opponents.
107- Andrea- I am sorry. At least it hasn’t come as too much of a shock. You Italians eh.
Despite his obvious partisanship young Dr Palmer has always posted the best informed, and most reliable insights on Gordon’s behaviour.
He has never reproached me for my utter disloyalty to the left. Nick is a top bloke, and represents the best.
Paul S- a name that sounds very close to one I know very well!
89.”Must proof read, even [especially] with kids yelling and dog barking etc…”
Do what I do when that happens, get them to walk the dog!
Mike, what a picture of McCain and Bush, the only thing missing is the walking sticks!
Saw the CNN interviews last night, Obama really is a natural politician in front of the camera’s, the more I see of him the more I like him. Hilary comes out with the right sentiments, but there is just not any sign of a natural empathy.
The Slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ jumps 4.5% to 14.2% on account of ‘bittergate’ :
http://www.slate.com/id/2188972/
92, 105. Am I the only person to be overwhelmed by the irony of David Owen bringing out a book accusing another politician as hubris? This is Dr Death speaking, one-time leader of the Monster Raving Ego Party, and a man whose autobiography exudes smugness on every page.
re 123 Wikipedia will even provide an answer to the Jack Straw “rumours”.
very o/t - from the Edinburgh Evening News
Tories call in police over missing £150k
POLICE have been called in to investigate allegations that a Scottish Conservative Party worker stole £150,000 from party funds.
Senior party officials called in the police after the money, thought to have come mainly from subscriptions, disappeared from their Edinburgh offices over the last year.
The missing funds were discovered after a routine financial check, and officers are understood to be investigating a string of accounts to try to trace the money.
The missing funds have sparked a financial crisis, and forced the party to ask donors including Rangers owner Sir David Murray for help covering the shortfall.
A source within the Conservatives was reported to have said: “The whole thing has been a major embarrassment. It has shown the accounting system was not too robust – which is why no-one noticed until it was too late.”
132 Patrick. We all make mistakes voting/drinking/blogging
140 No. You are not.
“From the New York Post (no, me neither)”
Morus, if you’d been to NY you’d know the Post. Trust me!
re 139 17.2% when I just looked
Trentino (they still have FPTP constituencies for the Senate) looks like this:
Merano: easy SVP hold
Bressanone-Brunico: easy SVP hold
Bolzano: comfortable SVP-PD alliance hold
Pergine Valsugana: PdL hold
Trento Val di Non: looks like a PdL gain
Rovereto- Riva del Gardo: looks like a PD hold
—
the last 2 looks close but with very few polling stations to report.
129 Jack - this seems to suggest that Hillary is recovering very strongly in PA - will she win by more than Ladbrokes’ handicapped margin of 12% after all - Ouch!
Strange thing about Hillary, just when you think she’s finally down and out, and this is about the third such occasion, she suddenly bounces back.
test.
Just hearing on Foxnews reporting a new ARG Poll (with lots of caveats re ARG accuracy) for Pennsylvania.
For what its worth here it is:
Clinton 57% Obama 37%
142.Marcia, just seen the story, what a mess!
144 - I’m going in September for the first time!
Better or worse than the Daily Express?
a surprise in Molise….Molise has just 2 Senators. It was 1 PdL and 1 PD. Everyone expected the same result this year. However Di Pietro seems to have outpolled PD in Molise in the Veltroni coalition and so getting the CL seat there. 12,000 votes lead after 365 out 390 polling stations reported. So more or less confirmed
if the hilary in PA numbers are correct then there are some very good value prices on betfair
132 Patrick, I bet that one Marlboro from your crumpled old pack tasted stale. BTW , on your scoring basis, since Sept 3 last year I am 222 for no wicket, double Nelson!
115. A very important principle of justice is that the law applies to everyone equally. No one is above the law. Nick Palmer is bound by it, just like everyone else.
Nick Palmer was abusive towards other posters on Sunday. We all know the rules. For this reason Nick Palmer needs to be banned for at least six months (as this abuse has been frequent).
As a regular poster to this forum, my view is that some other regular posters have been abusive towards those that they consider to be new. Hence SeanT’s criticism of ‘Pb.com oligarchs’.
A clear out of ‘dead wood’ is long overdue. So that the more charismatic and newer contributors can post without being harrassed would be benefical.
Ultimately the public mood is very different from the left-wing prejudices displayed by some on this forum. Particularly in their attempt to manipulate what others can discuss. If we don’t like a post ignore it. If you reply, and are abusive, it probably shows you’ve lost the argument. This is why Nick Palmer’s behaviour was so unnacceptable yesterday, and so many times before.
Those who always resort to abuse when others discuss subjects they don’t like will destroy this forum, as it builds up a reputation for serving a narrow left-leaning clique.
The best interests of the forum are served by a temporary ban on Nick Palmer for this reason.
It will restore the badly damaged reputation of this site.
147 PfP. The Penn polls are all over the shop !! However the trends appear clear - Obama has substantially cut Hillary’s lead but this has stabilized or even ticked up slightly. Many new polls to come.
149 jsfl. Posted much earlier by ……
“It will restore the badly damaged reputation of this site.”
Absolute rubbish. Politicalbetting.com’s reputation remains intact, you seem to be taking yourself a little too seriously.
119
I love old people, I’m even married to one. But for an elderly gent with a dreadful temper to have his hand on the 3 am red telephone should worry us all. He’ll probably be up at 3 am, well he should be at his age, and does the White House have phones in the loos?
Malcolm
150 - it could happen to any of us - in the past 40 years i’ve seen some strange people become the treasurer of local parties.
155 PaulS. Very funny !!!
155. Erm… nurse!
OOOOH! I hope that Nick Palmer doesn’t come on here tonight…..
I’m really scared of him!