YouGov Boris lead cut in half in a week
April 14th, 2008
This week’s YouGov poll on the London Mayoral race has Boris’s lead before the second preference distribution down from 13% to 6% in a week. The margin is exactly the same for this measure as in yesterday’s MORI survey.
The figures are: Boris 45% (-4): Ken 39% (+3):Paddick 12% (+2)
Where YouGov and MORI diverge is over what happens to the second preferences. YouGov reports an 8% Boris margin while MORI had this at 2%.
This is all in line with what I was predicting. On Friday I wrote:“The next polls from YouGov could be critical and my guess, given the way the campaign is progressing, is that it will be suggesting a much smaller Boris lead than the 13% that we had on Monday”.
Clearly the Ken camp will be enormously encouraged by this progress but what is fascinating is how the pollsters are converging. the MORI poll was a move to Boris while YouGov is a move to Ken.
So now the split between the pollsters is on second preferences where we are heading into very tricky territory.
Latest Mayoral betting is here.
UPDATE: This is how the Standard is covering the story:-
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Perhaps that TV debate was more influencial than people were saying?
2 Stonch. That and perhaps the earlier YouGov was an outlier. There may also be something of a voter attention factor coming into play as polling draws closer. In the final analysis will the punters put ‘Bonking Boris’ in charge of London ?!?!
I’ve posted the Evening Standard article at the end of the last thread for anyone who is interested.
Changes to the other two could just be sampling error - but a four point fall for Johnson looks significant.
I suspect this poll is more a match with the Johnson private polling than the earlier YouGov as they seem to have been worried about complacency in their supporters.
The difficulty of polling voters in the Mayoral race must be very high and personally I would put very little at risk on the basis of their reports.
To be realistic Mike , the Mori change was not statistically important the 2 polls were well within the M Of E . As I mentioned yesterday , the detailed data indicated 32% of voters may change their present voting intention , too close to call at the moment methinks .
It’s tightening - Ken had a better week - but Boris is still ahead, both on first and second preferences. What is particularly interesting is that Paddick is refusing to direct his supporters to Ken - and Lib Dem voters clearly prefer Boris as their second choice.
In the UK it’s very rare to get such an exciting race. Let’s enjoy it!
It’s a good poll for Ken, but only comparatively. 8% lead after second prefs is very comfortable. I’m relaxed about Boris winning.
INTRADE VS. BETFAIR
Can anyone explain to me why the London Mayoral Race market is almost half-million dollars on betfair, and only 300$ on https://www.intrade.com/
It seems to me it is much more preferable to sell and buy rather than to buy and buy — when you wanna switch position.
So why the preference toward the betting rather than the trading?
Mike, I know you pay great heed to yougovs polling because of their accuracy at the last mayoral elections, but apart from this previous success what reasons are there to favour an internet poll over a telephone poll?
Surely there are much bigger chances for manipulation with yougov where anybody can apply to take part and pretend to be anyone from anywhere, rather than targeted telephone polling? Also, haven’t the demographics of the internet changed a great deal in the last 4 years since widespread broadband. Could that affect these polls?
I am no expert by any means, but it would be interesting to know why you put so much stock in these yougov polls which are so divergent from the rest. Is it just previous success or do you have other reasons to trust them more?
The Lib Dem 2nd pref will be the important vote.
I see on Lib Dem voice that LDs are being urged to vote Ken 2nd Pref even though most local authorities in London run by the LDs absolutley loathe Ken as he does them.
It just comes back down to tribal politics again and the LDs show that the old socialists in their party would rather vote for Karl Marx than any Tory candidate.
I think there was always likely to be an initial “oh its Boris” novelty factor which might inflate his support – that this is tempered by subsequent reservations of the “is he serious/ is he up to it” variety, as the election has got closer was also always likely… I’d still say Johnson is favoured to win, but I’m not sure the massive leads he had were ever likely to be sustained and it’s a good thing for the campaign that they weren’t as the last thing the Conservative campaign in London needs is complacency on the part of Conservative voters in Metro-land.
This is probably around where Boris has been all along, judging by the noises his team have been making its in line with their private polling.
re 10 YouGov’s reputation here comes from getting the final result right to within 1% last time.
The phone pollsters have a appalling record on the London Mayoral races.
To quote a Ming-ism, this poll is a bit of a “mixed-bag”, but I am very reassured by the news that The Grim Reaper is out pounding the streets on behalf of Livingstone.
Should help Boris no end..
14. So it is just the record from last time then.
BF quiet BJ drifting a touch
1.58
2.56
104%
Expect KL to close at 2.45?
14. Mike - Can I ask you for your current percentage assessment of the likelihood of Boris still clinching this?
Down to 65% now? 60%?
The detailed data from this poll is already on the Yougov website .
O/T - we’ve got some new prices up for next Labour leader at Ladbrokes. Also something on UK house prices in 2008 if anyone’s interested in that.
David Miliband 3/1
Ed Balls 4/1
Alan Johnson 6/1
Jack Straw 7/1
James Purnell 8/1
John Denham 10/1
Yvette Cooper 12/1
Andy Burnham 14/1
Harriet Harman 14/1
Ed Miliband 16/1
Jon Cruddas 16/1
Douglas Alexander 20/1
Geoff Hoon 20/1
Hilary Benn 20/1
Caroline Flint 25/1
John Hutton 25/1
Charles Clarke 50/1
Jacqui Smith 50/1
John Reid 50/1
Ruth Kelly 50/1
Alistair Darling 100/1
Frank Field 100/1
Hazel Blears 100/1
UK House Prices 2008
To Rise 8/1
To Fall, but by less than 10% evens
To Fall, by at least 10% 5/6
To Fall, by at least 20% 6/1
Applies to the Halifax HBOS Standardised Quarterly Average House Price (seasonally adjusted). Q4 07 - Q4 08. Q4 07=£197,071.
17. Sporting Index spreads?
Incidentally, SPIN are really bugging me at the moment. They take down the London Mayoral market ALL THE TIME - often for over 36 hours at a stretch.
This seems to happen within 1 day of any poll being released and a good few hours after. It makes trading v. difficult and profit taking tricky.
Why can’t they have a market manager who simply responds to the weight of money being placed, as and when it happens?
Poor SPIN. Very poor.
22
so why don’t you do business on intrade.com ?
20-21
14-15
21 - Just for clarification shadsy, presumably that 5/6 is for prices to fall by at least 10% but no more than 20% such that it’s a clear exclusive set of possibilities?
Iain MacWhirter, Scotland’s top left-wing (ie. until recently pro-Labour) columnist, wonders ‘Has Brown sent us along the road to independence?’
I do not think that the old “conventional wisdoms” stand any more in Scotland. Scottish politics has been turned on its head, and will never be the same again. Watch this space…
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/featuresopinon/display.var.2193552.0.Has_Brown_sent_us_along_the_road_to_independence.php
24. Interesting. Boris priced quite high on SPIN at the moment.
Just wait for the “Sells” to be placed and then watch them take the market down AGAIN so they can have a think about it!!
Grr….
23. Don’t know much about Intrade - I’m not convinced of the liquidity and pricing.
25. No, they are not exlusive. More than 20% and they both cop.
There is no liquidity on Intrade and the numbers shown are contracts traded not money. It is aimed at the US market.
22
On a real free market, no need for a “market manager who simply responds to the weight of money being placed” — the market itself regulate with bid and ask…
as in intrade.
And you can do it non-stop 24/24 7/7…
You can buy and sell and…
So why bothering oneself with market that can close without previous notice?
The volume of contracts give you a hint about the size of the market, mister.
And people from UK can access it, come on!
I don’t understand what you mean by “aimed at the US”: it is based in Ireland…
My own view is that if Boris is 6% ahead on first preferences, he’ll win quite comfortably. He won’t have his lead pegged back to 2% by the end.
Shadsy - why are you not offering a price on Brown’s most likely successor?
28
No liquidity in the London Race; I wonder why
But a lot on the Recession and the US Elections…
I had dinner in one of Boris’ favourite restaurants last night (he used to lunch there when he was at Doughty Street). Lovely place. Also I remember a time when I was running down Piccadilly (traffic held up at lights, pavement gridlocked, so I took the bus lane) and he cycled past and cheered me on. Nice bloke I suppose. I need to reconcile myself with him being mayor.
His younger sister isn’t very nice by the way. Rude girl.
Ken’s cutting the lead but 6% at this stage looks quite good for Boris to me.
23
You fix yourself the pricing by offering and/or demanding… like in any f&&$ing market!
20 - they’re fools for not offering odds on Livingstone. A few punters would foolishly put some money up.
32 & 37. These are good ideas. I shall add Tony and Ken forthwith.
House price markets: general points,
There is a spread market on spreadfair.
There is an OTC market run by Tradition (city firm), note the date.
LONDON, January 8 /PRNewswire/ –
The London office of TFS, a global leader in interdealer broking, is pleased to announce the launch of indices designed to illustrate the estimated future house price in the UK.
TFS Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the UK FSA.
TFS FHP Indices Mid-Point
Thru Dec-07 191,450 pounds
Thru Dec-08 194,985 pounds The TFS FHP Indices are derived from
Thru Dec-12 213,028 pounds the forward curve of the over-the-
Thru Dec-15 228,638 pounds counter market in HPI based derivatives
Thru Dec-20 259,399 pounds published in TFS’s Risk & Manage
Thru Dec-25 300,260 pounds property derivatives newsletter.
Thru Dec-30 354,435 pounds
on betfair, Boris is back at 1.6
And Ken down at 2.5
20. Good work Shadsy. Hills also have prices on the next Labour leader with some stand out prices from Sidney. Jack Straw 25/1, John Denham 25/1 and following her performance at PMQs recently dare I say Harriet Harman is value at 33/1.
Shadsy - can I clarify something?
If a Labour leader resigns, the leadership election follows their resignation - it does not precede it.
If Labour are in Opposition, their constitution has the Deputy Leader as Acting Leader until a new Leader has been elected.
If Labour are in Government, the Acting Leader is selected by the Cabinet (though obviously it is up to the Queen if that person is asked to become Prime Minister), and serves until a new Leader has been elected.
When Brown goes, will you be paying out on either/both of these acting leaders, or is this market actually ‘Who will win the next Labour leadership election?’
If I have misunderstood the Labour Party constitution, I’d be happy for someone who knows these things (alex, perhaps?) to correct me.
When Ken looked unbeatable the attention was on him.
When Boris looked unbeatable, it switched.
This far out, Boris needs people to be thinking seriously about the negativity surrounding Ken, not ignoring it.
27 - Shadsy, thanks - thought your overround was a touch high and the > 10% a bit mean but am used to Betfairs range type markets and just assumed…
Philippe - You work for tradesports or just on commission for them?
41 - Jack Straw and Harriet Harman are both excellent value if those prices are correct, not least becuse they would probably be the Acting Leaders as I mention above.
45. They are - I’ve just backed them again.
Out of interest why has Jack Straw never been a contender for Labour leader? He always strikes me as rather impressive, probably the best of the older generation in the cabinet
34. “His younger sister isn’t very nice by the way. Rude girl.”
Rachael Johnson?
She is also an expert in immaculate conception. Despite being married with kids she says she’s a virgin.
I feel sorry for her husband..
45. May I add that the Hills market clearly says the next Permanent Leader after Brown.
47, i meant to say “serious contender”
47. I have heard he is a bit of a ‘lech’
But he is the best of the current bunch - which is really saying something.
Looking at the You Gov sample I noticed this:
Age
18 to 34 35 to 54 55 +
weighted 388 354 290
unweighted 407 289 335
I apologise if thise has been discussed before but will voters for the london mayoral election really be 37.5% 18-34?
Morus, these prices are for next permanent leader of the Labour Party. So I guess they are equivalent to who will win the next leadership contest.
Blair is coming back. He will be next leader of the Labour Party AND the next Prime Minister. I predict that when Labour hits 25% in the polls, Phil Wilson will stand down in Sedgefield and Tony will sweep back with a 10,000 majority.
You can write the rest of the script.
Four in 10 Londoners say he is not serious enough to be Mayor.
44
Pure curiosity about why so little liquidity in the London Race market by comparaison to half a million $ dollars on Betfair.
For I see m,uch more potential in trading than in betting — for the same results can be reached with less capital…
…according to YouGov
54. I’ve stuck him in at 100/1 just for you Don.
56 - But the problem is that liquidity breeds liquidity, and illiquidity breeds illiquidity. If a market is seen as illiquid, people will shy away from using it - if it is seen as liquid then will be more prone to do so. The same effect is clearly seen in financial markets as well
58 - I’m getting on it!
54. “You can write the rest of the script.”
..of my outlandish fantasy.
Thought the possiblity of Jack Straw becoming leader had already been ruled out - because of issues previously not discussed on this site.
55. So 6 out of 10 think he is serious enough?
49/53 I thought only North Korea still had ‘Permanent Leaders’!
I still think Straw is good value on Shadsy’s list - Clarke at 50/1 and Hutton at 25/1 made me look twice too (Blairite, but would only be allowed to stabilise in Opposition, so that Miliband or Balls could challenge next time).
62 - It ruled him out of running against Brown, because Brown was there at the time, and was ruthless enough to use it if true.
Now there are almost no 1997 Cabinet ministers left, and he might be tempted, if Miliband and Balls agree that his winning helps them in the long-term.
re 62. I think that some issues were discussed and moderated.
I’m astonished that Ladbrokes offer 4-1 on Ed Balls, a man who resembles Nicholas Ridley and Portillo Mark 1 for his ability to repulse the floating voter.
John Denham, on the other hand, looks like excellent value at 10-1, being untainted by Iraq and a man of solid judgement.
58,60 - Is there any precedence for someone to be leader of a major party twice - I can’t think of anyone, but…
65. And Balls is not ruthless?
66. Just seen your post. OK. Didn’t realise. Sorry.
As don says, an enjoyably close race! - regardless of your preferences, it’s gripping to see the gap closing as they head for the finishing line. I think that the poll is precisely right - Boris is still ahead, but faltering as people start to think about whether they really want him. His correct odds would probably be about 4-5 or 4-6 on.
Here’s a “friend of Boris” being not terribly helpful (AA Gill doesn’t do helpful):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3734630.ece
Why would Blair come back when he’s coining it in on the International lecture circuit, not to mention the money he’ll make from his memoires? No, Blair’s gone and he ain’t ever coming back.
I bet he’s rubbing his hands with glee at the moment though, seeing what a mess Brown is making!
67. If you think 10/1 is excellent value, you can get 25/1 on Denham with Hills (sorry Shadsy).
63. No. 37% think he is serious enough. 24% neither/don’t know
ES Headline ‘Boris lead is cut in half’.
http://standardonline.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
re 71. Well Boris is faltering if you believe YouGov but soaring if you believe MORI. He’s dropped 7% with the former in the past week but gone up 8% with the latter.
But what a fantastic election to bet on and watch. I agree with Nick on the Boris odds - should be about 4-6 or 1.67 in Betfair parlance.
Blair’s absence is doing more for his ‘legacy’ than his presence ever did.
71. I don’t know, YouGov still looks quite comfortable for Boris to me. I mean, its a dramatic movement compared to recent weeks, but if Boris can hold at 6% between now and May 1st he’ll be laughing.
Boris will only maintain his lead (and win) if he can stop this charge of “incompetent” “buffoon” “clown” and “not serious” from sticking.
I don’t think the threat is Labour, inner-city minorities, or the left. It’s Tory voters and soft Lib-Dem voters who might waver and stick with Ken.
Boris needs to focus on those.
UPDATE I’ve just added the Standard’s front page to the main article
MSNBC’s report on last nights ‘Faith Forum’ held at Messiah College Pennsylvania attended by Clinton and Obama but not McCain :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24100225/
77. I remember after Maggie was deposed, there were several years when people said they wanted her back (not her enemies of course) The same sort of thing is now happening with Tone.
80. The most significant thing in that headline is probably;
BROWN JOINS KEN ON STREES TO SECURE LABOUR SUPPORT
If true, this looks to me like a monumental error. ken should keep as far away from Brown as he can. By contrast Boris should be seen with Cameron at every opportunity!
Obama’s ‘Shame on You Hillary’ comments on YouTube :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIxmi3e2Vmo
84. Surely that headline is an oxymoron?
Ooooh - gossip! Can someeone point me in the direction of these Jack Straw rumours? I’ve never heard them. Must have been away at the time. Or too frenzied about Europe to notice.
Just a link. Oh pleeeeeasse. Etc.
ON topic - BoJo will be sanguine about these polls. Two weeks to go and a solid lead, with the press largely on his side? He’s looking good. Not a certainty, but a definite frontrunner.
66 - issues about Straw - can someone send me an email about these? I am intrigued. My email address is on my website on the left sidebar
cheers
69 - Balls is ruthless, but as long a he’s confident he can beat Miliband, it is both his and Miliband’s interests for Straw to stabilise the party in opposition. Cabinet members from the time, who might have used this against Straw (Clarke, Milburn, Reid) would probably not now, for the sake of the party, and as long as it didn’t mean Straw being PM.
Straw has no direct rivals left of his generation, excpet people like Hoon and Johnson. If a secret scandal disqualified him last time, it is no longer a strict bar I don’t think.
Although I don’t think we’ve said anything that could get the site in trouble, we should probably stop there on this one.
I detect a relaxed mood here… can I take this opportunity to plug an event I’ve co-organised, just across the river from Parliament in Lambeth?
London’s bestest German beer festival ever - May 15th-17th - http://stonch.blogspot.com/2008/04/bier-in-london-ja.html
Louise Bagshaw on why Brown will go only if he wants to.
‘Rules designed by Tony to make the leadership impregnable against Gordon are now protecting him. To even mount this fictious stalking horse challenge being dreamed of by some, Charles Clarke, Milburn or A. N. Other need 70 Labour MPs - just to get to nomination. Are there seventy Labour MPs willing to risk their careers? Gordon Brown need not go to the country for another two years. Junior ministers, like the one I face, presumably want to make it into the Cabinet. Two years is a long time in politics. And then, consider all the other difficulties. The lengthy timetable of a Labour leadership election, allowing infighting to go on almost until the General Election, whilst the Conservatives, disciplined and united, set out their stall to the country…
…Anthony Meyer needed two supporters to challenge Margaret Thatcher. Blair avoided that catastrophe by requiring 20% of his party. The hurdles are too high…
..Almost the entire PLP voted for Brown. And just a few months later, they want the guy out? What will that say to an electorate about the seriousness of Labour MPs as a governing body?’
So we are back to Mike’s theory out bottling it. But how late can he leave it and isn’t he likely to be just as indecisive about stepping down?
“I don’t think the threat is Labour, inner-city minorities, or the left. It’s Tory voters and soft Lib-Dem voters who might waver and stick with Ken.
Boris needs to focus on those.”
I agree. Most canvassers are reporting a steady trickle of usual Conservatives who can’t stand him, although these are presently outnumbered by switchers from other parties.
91 - Election 2010 and if they go down to anything like the support levels currently indicated he would be gone before the sun comes up on the Friday morning.
If Labour lose the next election their leadership contest is going to be fascinating. Since 1994 it has either been Blair and Brown - the two figures always seen at the top of the party, the others loyally slaving under them and basking in their reflective, election winning glow (we know that’s come unstuck under Brown, but in previous years he was seen as a factor in Labour’s electoral popularity). Any dissent from that was not to be taken seriously, which is why Brown didn’t have a challenger.
So when Brown goes, where do they go next? What is their policy, their identity - it has always been tied in so closely to Blair/Brown. If they lose big I think it’s going to severely rupture the Labour Party. Some will say it was because they were too authoritarian, others will blame the economic problems, but there will not be one big, prevaling mood in the party, they will all have their different ideas about future direction. As such a leadership election will be dynamite.
And lets be honest here - they should go for a steadying, stable influence like Denham, but they won’t. They’ll see Cameron walking into Number 10, think “new generation!” and plump for Milliband, just like the Tories to their grave error chose Hague in 1997.
I don’t think there has been any change in London for the candidates in the last week - It is just flatulents fom the polling organisations!
I was greatly amused by the comments in the independent on Sunday about Charles Clarke. When i think about Charles Clarke the stubbly nature of this chap comes to mind:
https://www.exult.co.uk/sales_img/SX2771_Fart_Spray_Pack12.jpg
How Clarke can think he is PM material i do not know, he would be worse than Brown!
I thought the Osborne licking shit of Cameron shoes on that ITV program very funny!
I think WIlliam Hague is the best on there though! Come on son lets get a breath mint!!!! 
Well Betfair saw this poll and yawned.
Interesting article in ES today.
50 per cent of London’s children live in poverty
In Tower Hamlets 47.4 per cent of adults are not in work and a quarter have no qualifications.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23478244-details/50+per+cent+of+London%27s+children+live+in+poverty/article.do
88 Have done so - please do not forward.
95. There was not enough ridicule of Labour on that ITV program though, the tories seem to get a disproportional amount and the stuff on Clegg was pretty lame. They could have at least contrasted Clegg to Neil Kinnock at the very least!
80 For outer London what Boris needs to stress is the Mayor’s Precept - up by 147% in 8 years (20% per annum) and for what? Mention of the millions pushed to tame agencies, the huge staff numbers in Mayor’s office etc. Concentrate on cash and wastefullness - and get Ken back to defending Lee Jasper.
98. Maybe they are beginning to satirise the next government before its even come to power?
A quick Google of “Jack Straw” and “rumour” brings plenty of answers. Never realised this speccy supergeek was such a player.
What is it with these old school Labour types? Livingstone, Prescott, and (name moderated) - all at it like weasels on Cialis.
The tory stuff was very obvious and not very funny. Hague is funny, but Osborne neither looks nor sounds anything like the real one. The labour stuff is not that great either, and the Clegg bashing was a bit obvious too.
96 The gap between rich and poor in Tower Hamlets is striking.
100. Could be! I do think though they missed alot of stuff on the government in the last week: The Balls / Straw “dispute”, Brown and the American Idol stuff, the recent fall in house prices “not counting” (Brown) as they have risen for 10 years……………..
I think i could write a script that would be far more amusing and far better at hitting the real shortfalls in politicians of all sides.
Good article from Charlie Brooker on whether Boris Johnson is the candidate for a cartoon age:
‘If butterfingers Johnson gets in, it’ll clearly be a laugh riot from beginning to end, like a series of Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em in which Frank Spencer becomes mayor by mistake. Just picture him on live TV, appealing for calm after a terrorist bombing - the scope for chuckles is almost limitless.’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/14/charliebrooker.boris
98 The problem with using cartoons rather than puppets is that the programme cannot be current as animation takes time to do - so scripts were written a while back and personalities the programme tries to establish are those of last year. So whereas with puppets the programme could have had Straw biffing Balls, Gordon throwing mobiles at anything that moves, Clegg ogling and trying to get his score up, Cameron running down pedestrians as he whizzes about (possibly with a dwarf Osborne in his panniers) we get pretty old and unfunny jokes.
104. I hope it’s time for another special episode of The Thick Of It.
Casino Royale.
1. SPINS mayoral index has NEVER been down for 36 hours. I challenge you to provide me with evidence to the contrary. It is always more available than the similar one at IG and we were up 2 months before them
2. If we do not suspend in anticipation of polls, then people on this forum come on, with the polls known to them but BEFORE they are on general release (they know who they are, I need not name them) and punt off the back of them. Whether this tactic is underhand or not, it would be foolish not to prepare for such behaviour.
3. You cannot possibly expect a market manager to respond to weight of money 24 hours a day. Some of you place bets at ungodly hours - the market manager has a humble home to go to occasionally.
Criticism where it’s due, but basically, you’re just upset you havent been able to have a schnide bet. Sorry about that
I’m sure Ken can take enormous comfort that the Maoists look like sweeping to power in the Nepalese elections.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20080414/twl-nepal-vote-f363c67.html
As goes Kathmandu, surely Kensington will follow.
104 - I think a collaboration of PB’ers could probably hit more targets than most satirists. In fact I think that if PB’ers were restricted to satirising their own side we would probably come up with a funnier program.
where did every1 get that boris had an 8pt lead from? he is leading by 6pts on 1st pref and 5pts on 2nd pref…is that not 11pts in total?
although his 1st pref share has decreased his 2nd pref has counteracted this move ie very little change no?
I thought that having Brown as a rubbish magician would work better, following on from the Amazing Tony after years of trying to immitate him. He keeps pulling off tricks to try and impress the electorate, and failing miserably.
On humour had to smile at a couple of lines in Tim Hanes piece today:
“Charles Clarke … will put himself forward as a “stalking horse” (“stalking hippo”, surely) candidate
On Government getting the blame for economic hard times
“it would be a bizarre citizen who mused: “The price of milk and cheese is going through the roof, I put it down to David Cameron”, or who thought: “I’m worried that I might lose my job, if only Nick Clegg had been more sexually reticent.”
102. That Osbourne stuff was funny but i think shit jokes are funny anyway!!!!
That fag stuff was not very good and they should use their imagination. Osbourne does not look or sound like the charecter and that Cameron bit at a press launch is getting a bit monotunous. I have never seen him do that so it is not really a good p1ss take.
Whilst we are taking the mick out of MP’s has anybody noticed that Brown does not tend to do the jaw drop intake of air anymore? Maybe he has had lessons on how to breath properly - breath in - breath out - open mouth (Slightly) Breath in - Breath out - No dropping jaw! Maybe Brown will implement a 5 year strategy of rolling it out to other people who breath in the same way - thus creating investment and growth in a symboitic realationship between communication R &D spend and cultral investment?
112 - You mean a dour and unfunny Tommy Cooper, replete with Fez?
104. There is no level on which Brown is not boring.
Owwwww even ‘5 News’ [contradiction in terms!] is running, ‘Noone thinks Brown is any good’ poll.
The SPIN bloke has got the hump. Wonder if he has a losing book.
115. pretty much, he tries to act all showbiz and Tonyish but just looks like a bad immitation, plus his tricks are based on his latest plan to turn things around.
105. I actually think the allusion to a terrorist attack is pretty crass. I am sure Boris would make a mature, serious statement in such an occurence (I would hope *any* politician or public figure would), though it doesn’t surprise me that the Grauniad would like to suggest otherwise…
I’m not generally one for just re-posting internet pieces, but:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7346081.stm
Nationalised Northern Rock hasn’t passed on the interest rate cut yet. It’s the sort of spin / managment dislocation that must make Labour supporters dispair.
111 - Good point.
Mike where did we all get this 8% lead from? Should it not be an 11% lead for BoJo?
So, regression to the mean then?
It was highly probable that MORI and Yougov would converge on Boris’s true lead, rather than the frankly fantastic positions both have peddling of late.
It’s nice to have a rather more accurate view of where things lie.
119 Charlie Booker is crass - there is no intellectual content in any of his articles just a regurgitation of his personal prejudices and attempts at humour.
111, 121 - You simply cannot add the leads together like that. The lead in P2’s acts relative to the lead in p1’s. The reason that it goes to 8% rather than narrowing from 6% is because the second lead is a 2 candidate only lead and is reflective of the front 2 first round lead etc.
22 Casino Royale
36 hours???????????????
Have another guess ‘pal.’
“It makes trading v. difficult and profit taking tricky.”
Well we wouldn’t want to make it easy for you guys to make ‘profit’ would we?
Duuuuuuuuuuuh!
@123:
Most of which tend to be enormously succesful. Charlie Brooker is probably Britain’s most accomplished living scatalogue.
He’s a national treasure.
CHARLIE BROOKER IS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING.
(Except Dave, and Macs)
111 Mike I never posted that, I don`t know who did if you could check please.
sean, stonch, google the labour mp fpr Newark
I have no idea who charlie brooker is. That plus that article just looks like its been written by a sixth former, no real analysis just a few unsubtle digs done before a jillion times.
119 - Interestingly, AA Gill spoke to Boris in the Sunday Times, and Boris said (I’m paraphrasing): “It is the job of the Mayor if a terrorist attack happens to condemn it as cowardly, vow justice, and support the excellent Emergency Services. It should not be his job to run to the Control Room and start conducting operations.”
I thought that was quite an interesting comment.
Philippe Magnan - your comments are rather repetitive but I’ll answer you on intrade.
I like intrade conceptually but the key advantage - being able to realise a profit quickly - is neutralised by the time it takes to get money in and out.
Of course you can still short term trade on Betfair, you just don’t “get” the money until settlement - and given one shouldn’t be betting with money we can’t afford to lose - we can afford to wait a little for the profit right?
On the intrade mayoral market, that market was put up after the betfair one - which doesn’t help. I believe Matthew JCGP requested it to be put up.
@129:
Looking to Charlie Brooker for analysis is a mistake. He’s completely wrong about Boris, but I would suggest that’s hardly the point.
Brooker is more adept at wringing the pomposity out of his targets with finely-constructed verbiage than perhaps anybody else in Britain today, certainly since Victor Lewis-Smith and Christopher Morris disappeared from view.
It’s a case of never mind the content, just enjoy the righteous flow.
Learn to be offended once in a while; It’s a beautiful feeling. Brooker offers a joyous linguistic relief from the frustrations of daily life, even when he’s talking out of his arse.
130 - and a very sensible, realistic comment, in my opinion.
The Clegg bit on Headcases was a tumbleweed moment. They could’ve done a great skit about 30 women, a serious sarcasm piece on the EU split or even taken on his logical contortions over retaliating to unjust invasion.
The Tory bits were pretty hilarious, though last week’s line “I put a crab down my shorts and it felt tingly” is still the best one.
The Brown-Darling skit was pathetically weak. Too brief, not nearly mocking enough. They should hire whoever writes the Prime Ministerial Decree in Private Eye.
107. Hasnt the last six months of this Government being a long long episode of The Thick of It?
We’re F#cked, we’re all F*cked…..
124 James Burdett
Sorry im new to all of this…
From the YouGov figs how have you got 8%?
What is the calculation?
@135:
Absolutely.
On another point, I was disappointed that Peter Capaldi didn’t call anybody a wanker in Doctor Who on Saturday. It felt wrong, somehow, for him not to be swearing like a docker.
@136:
Only the second preferences for those who vote for candidates other than Boris or Ken will get counted. If you redistribute *all* second prefs, then you get an incorrect result.
138 - which of course means one might as well vote for a loon of choice with first pref. I might vote for that Winston guy. Last time I gave my first pref to Tammy Nagalingham. Her niece worked with me.
[101] I’m still trying to figure out how anyone can write a book on how to get l**d without noticing that power is an aphrodisiac…
108. I do not believe you do work for SPIN.
Your petulant and unprofessional response sounds more like a astroturfer to me - as does the name.
But, I will give an example to pb.com - not to a mealy-mouthed child like you.
Casino phoned SPIN at 2pm on Saturday afternoon. They said the market was down in anticipation of tomorrows poll and would be back up by MONDAY MORNING.
I make that well over 36 hours.
Also, SPIN have traders on the phone 24 hours a day, don’t pretend there’s no-one available.
SPIN can do much better.
138
Thanks Martin much appreciated.
Rasmussen poll shows 56% disagree with Obama on ‘bittergate’ :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/56_disagree_with_obama_s_comments_on_small_town_america
Looks like it is game over for Labour:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7346037.stm
Stagflation
136 - I’m not sure what the figures are and whether they have been released. I was talking generically, the poll figures have 45 - 39 on P1 and 54 - 46 with P2’s. The effect of the P2 breakdown would work on the P1 2 candidate lead not on the lead as it resolves in terms of all candidates.
140 - If you read it, lots of the book is actually about lots of different ways of failing to get laid, with the odd honourable exception…
140 - If you read it, lots of the book is actually about lots of different ways of failing to get laid, with the odd honourable exception…
140. The title of my book is ironic. It’s a story of serial sexual ineptitude, where I sometimes manage to get laid despite myself - rather than a primer, or a gloatfest.
This irony quite passed the Germans by. Judging by my reviews in the Teutonic press.
Squareheads.
144. I think I just heard on BBC news that tomorrows Inflation figures will be worse than expected.
141. Chicken Royale
For a petulant chidlike statement see your original posting - just cos you couldnt have a moody bet.
The market was available at 10am yesterday.
I make that well under 36 hours.
I’ve not intention of continuing arguing with this little p****. Come and have a bet rather than whining like a little girl
Happy punting everyone
145, 146. Pre-empted in the nicest way! Ta, Lennon.
144. I thought stagflation needed simultaneous and similar rises in unemployment?
125. I’d be interested if Mike Smithson could verify you both work for SPIN.
If so, you can forget any future business from me.
If not, I hope you are banned for being imposters.
152 - All economies search for inflationless growth, staglfation is the opposite of that growthless inflation.
Casino Royale 152.
Is there an E mail address for Mike Smithson, as someone posted at 111 using my name dont know why, or if its linked to your complaint.
154
politicalpunter@googlemail.com
152 Casino
It is extremely unlikely these remarks are coming from a genuine SPIN manager and I should think the company would be very concerned if it knew somebody was making such remarks in its name.
I have been a client of SPIN since shortly after its inception, many many years ago. I have never been treated with anything but courtesy and respect. I hope Mike takes up your suggestion, identifies the individual(s) in question and informs SPIN that somebody is damaging their reputation.
154. Yup. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was the same bloke.
Mike Smithson - I know you’re very busy, but I’d be grateful if you could investigate please?
I think posts like 149 are simply below the standards expected of this site.
148. It is quite obvious that the CPI figures are entirely disconnected to everyday experiences of the general public, and especially for those on low incomes.
People on low incomes are likely to be immunised against rising costs in council tax and their rent is paid for.
The essentials, which include fuel, groceries and luxeries disproportionatly enjoyed by those on low incomes, such as cigs and booze have all gone up by staggering amounts. Staples, such as bread, rice, pasta and potatoes are at double digit levels of inflation, with international commodity prices up 80% in two years.
Household fuel bills have doubled in the space of two or three years, thats an increase on average from £40 a month gas and electricity to £80 a month.
156. Thanks Peter.
You’re very kind. I hope you are right.
Amongst all the breathless 24 hour news channels, overexcited bloggery and the commentariat salivating at the prospect of months of easy pickings, all egged on by rash comments extracted from embittered ex cabinet ministers as a result of boozy lunches…
a somewhat more sane view
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/04/michael_whites_political_blog_126.html
Yes I realise that Michael White is seen in some quarters as far too establishment and close to the labour party, however there is a clear case for a longer perspective than Sky News has. Governments in the past (including the not so distant past) of both parties have been in worse situations than the current one, some have won a subsequent election some havent. So while it is lots of fun and possibly profitable in the short term the reality is that there it is very unlikely that there will be an election before spring 2009 and barring some completely unforeseen event Gordon Brown will lead the Labour Party into that election.
Without wanting to get too involved in the particular spat, Casino asks:
Why can’t they have a market manager who simply responds to the weight of money being placed, as and when it happens?
The answer is because bookmaking is not a game of fastest-finger-first, especially not in weak markets such as political betting. It’s supposed to be about evaluating the chances yourself and deciding which, if any, of the prices on offer are value.
There is obviously money to be made off the back of polls etc., and if someone leaves a value bet up on betfair, intrade or any other exchange service then more fool them. However it isn’t realistic for private firms to do so.
Those who trade purely on the back of inside or advance information shouldn’t delude themselves that they are particularly shrewd punters.
160 it’s the breathless 24 hour news channels etc that surely give life to political betting. No-one really wants saner views to prevail though they do inform the longer term chances. More rumours, more polling turbulence provide more short term chances.
“YouGov: Boris lead cut in half in a week”
Gollygoshgoodles, I expect that our sharia-favouring muslim extremist population would probably favour Boris being cut in half rather than his lead. They’d probably think the same about poor old Ken.
Its nice to get away from sharia and discuss something that really matters to Britons: Boris and Ken or ‘Will London keep its bendy-buses?”
God, I’m an awful old cynic.
Malcolm
Re Dez #111. Can you choose another user name because Dez has already been taken.
109 Nepal - the only place on earth immmune from Ave It’s “CONS WINNING EVERYWHERE!”
Shame. Would have been quite cheering to hear that “CONS GAIN KATHMANDU MOUNTAINSIDE!!” It’s probably down to them not having the Internet yet….next time, eh?
In my opinion, this is a fair review of what Obama’s recent SF comments on religion, guns, trade, immigration show (requires New York Times Login)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/opinion/14kristol.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=login
Brown has said that the economy is his sole focus. I think this really crystallises Gordon’s problem in that he comes across as unable to paint on a broad canvass and needs to focus on ‘one thing at a time’. Frankly PM’s don’t have that luxury. Brown was sold as a master strategist, when actually he is a tactician. The difference is subtle but explains why Gordon is in the mess he is in and hasn’t even got to his first anniversary yet.
Gaz Stagflation is inflation with no economic growth aka stagnation. It is redolent of the 70’s.