Should you be backing Boris again?
April 16th, 2008
Is the trend with MORI really quite positive for him?
After taking my profits in the mayoral betting last week the odds following last night’s debate have shifted enough for me to start risking some cash again. A price of 4/6, which has been available on Betfair, looks a fair value bet especially after reviewing the detail of the latest polling particularly from MORI.
The firm has had three published surveys on the race and produces, effectively, four sets of figures with each poll. Quite often figures that are highlighted are the ones that are most in line with the publications view of the race and this can sometimes be misleading. Thus on Sunday the Observer barely mentioned that Ken was 6% behind on first preferences.
With each MORI poll you have a series of figures based on all those interviewed naming a candidate and a set of figures on those who say they are certain to vote. These are then broken down into first preferences and what the position looks like after second preferences have been taken into account.
So taking the all naming a candidate first preference series this was KEN 44%: BORIS 33%: BRIAN 16% in February. The first poll of April had this at KEN 45%: BORIS 38%: BRIAN 11% while by the time of the weekend’s Observer findings this had shifted to KEN 42%: BORIS 42%: BRIAN 12%.
The pollster’s headline figures are based on those “certain to vote” and has moved like this.
The final series of figures are based on what happens when you allocate the second preferences of those certain to vote. You have to be careful here about rounding as I pointed out last week after the Unison funded survey. The margin can only be an even number and this had Ken up 2% in the first two surveys and down 2% in the latest poll for the Observer.
The actual split based on all naming Ken and Boris amongst the certain to vote was KEN 48.54% BORIS 51.45%. So on the rounding the headline figures was right but this disguises the fact that Ken’s deficit was almost 3%. Now that might not seem a lot but we are in a very tight election where the winner takes all.
Another element is that in the latest poll MORI asked whether respondents might change their mind. Here the split of those who had definitely decided was KEN 63%: BORIS 71%: BRIAN 44% - so Boris’s vote appears to be firmer than that for the other two.
The final factor, of course, is turnout and in the latest poll MORI found that the number of “certains to vote” was up from 48% in the earlier two surveys to 54% - an indication of how interest in this contest is increasing.
I don’t think that the final proportion will reach that level but it looks fairly certain that it will be up substantially on the 37% of four years ago. I do think that Ken benefits from a higher turnout and that, at the end of the day, might be the decider.
Today on the site: I am off to London to see the Howard Brenton play on Harold Macmillan at the NT and won’t be back until late. Scheduled to be published at about 4.45 pm is an article by Rod Crosby examining the possible impact of different regional swings at the next general election.
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Why would “Ken benefits from a higher turnout”?
re . Just look at the latest poll detail. Amongst those naming a candidate Boris and Ken were both on 42%. Once you filter out all apart from those certain to vote Ken is behind by 6%.
In 2000 the polls (not MORI) massively over-stated Ken’s position because of over-estimates of the turnout level. In the final poll the proportion of “certains” was predicted at about 50% and Ken had a lead of 34% over Steve Norris. When the votes were counted Ken’s lead dropped to just 11%.
“Most experts are predicting a low turnout outside London where Ken Livingstone is battling against Boris Johnson and Brian Paddick among others in the mayoral elections, and 25 seats in the London Assembly are being contested. “Labour’s disaffected will depress turnout outside London, although the neck-and-neck mayoral race could increase turnout in the capital,” Mr Travers said.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3754119.ece
Surely who turns out is more important.
If turnout is lowered by disaffected Labour voters, then Ken loses.
Turnout is boosted by the chance of getting rid of the Newt fancier, Boris wins.
Turnout amongst usual abstainers, (ethnic minorities, low income) Ken wins.
OT — the good people at the CIA rank countries by current account balance or deficit.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html
Scroll down for the UK. Right down.
And does the MI6 web site have a kids’ page?
Hat-tip to reddit.
FEAR OF THE BNP MIGHT TRIGGER HIGH TURNOUT, NO?
I read here that fear of the BNP gaining a seat or two might trigger a high turnout:
——-
This third London Mayoral contest will be by far the closest run yet. It’ll also be the bitterest.
Of course, a bittersweet dynamic of this fierce contest should lead to a better-than-average voter turnout - crucial if the BNP are to be denied any Greater London Assembly seats.
….
If they can keep up the charade, and there is a low voter turnout, the BNP would hope to pick up one or two Assembly seats. The result would be disastrous for London.
Source: http://www.newstatesman.com/200804150001
———
My question is:
Since there is a big Muslim population in London, and since the British Muslim Council called imams to encourage (in last Friday’s prayer) registration to vote (for Ken, presumably), — dont you people think this can trigger a higher turnout than before?
————–
“Almost nine out of ten Londoners and Muslims, 90 per cent and 88 per cent respectively, agree that people should have a voice in politics through democracy, which is being realised as Muslims are having an increased involvement in the political process in London.”
http://mpacuk.org/content/view/4168/34/
————-
Also:
““We want to see London’s Muslims playing a full role in British political life and engaging with others on issues that are of concern to all of us. It is also important to ensure that the far right do not sneak in on a low voter turnout,” said MCB Secretary-General Dr Muhammad Abdul Bari, in a statement.”
http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=35275&Itemid=2
98. Why did HenryG write
“97. Nick, did you hear that Jack Jones had died? I had no idea.”
even though nobody ever mentioned anything about Jack Jones in the first place? I am confuzzled.
5 Welcome to the UK; not so much sub-prime as sub-banana….
6. Unfortunately I think the increase in turnout prompted by people wanting to stop the BNP getting a seat will be minimal.
9 …and probably offset by those determined to vote BNP for the first time. I do wonder whether part of the recent large Tory poll leads (and canvass returns) actually comprises a sizeable number of former Labour voters who are saying they are voting Tory - but actually intend to vote BNP if they have a candidate. Could the “shy BNP” explain why the Tories under-perform aganst these huge poll leads in local elections - especially where the BNP stands?
[2] I don’t think the 2000 election provides a useful guide - it was a done deal, and Ken was running against the Government candidate.
9
Can this undermine Boris’ chances to win it?
Still, they’re predicting that Ken will do better on first prefs than he did four years ago.
Is this even remotely plausible?
Sorry: re:10
Can this undermine Boris’ chances to win it?
10. Can you be sure that the former Labour voters you find in your canvass returns actually voted? They must just have moved from not voting for Labour to not voting for you.
14 Not sure if a big BNP showing hurts Boris. Mostly they are going to be people p1ssed off by the current set-up of Government, so instinctively suggests that Ken will not benefit from their second votes. If they can even get their heads round the idea of using a second preference - (cheap shot alert) their voters are perhaps more ein volk rather than zwei vote…
14-Not unless more people have registered to vote than actually exist!!!
15 I can assure you that nobody is saying they are voting for me in the canvass returns!
18. I meant ‘you’ in the sense of the Tories.
Apologies if you are not a Tory - I assumed you had access to Tory canvass returns.
7. Because Nick is a Labour MP and it was an off-thread aside. Entirely wrong as it turned out. Can’t we have conversations on this site?
Did the polls in 2004 indicate the percentage certain to vote? We know the actual outcome was 37%. If we know the relationship between intentions and practice in 2004 it might help predict the likely turn-out this time round.
Last Question:
On the ballot, are the people putting both First AND Second preferences?
Or do they have to return to it, and vote a second time?
Mike S. Gadding about at the National then !! …. becoming a right little luvvie are we ??
BTW …. Have you heard overnight that in an Q&A session in Philadelphia, Hillary had a big problem with what might only delicately be said was ‘the elephant in the room’ !! :
http://www.dailydiatribe.com.au/dd/archives/hillary&elephant.jpg
24 Jack W, that look on her face suggests that she thinks Bill is behind her, trying it on again….!
I think the reason Brown’s struggling is the same as the reason Boris is going backwards and that’s that they are both inarticulate. Perhaps Brown always was but as he was tied up in figures it didn’t matter. And no one had previously listened to Boris being serious.
I saw Brown on Channel 4 News and he seemed incapable of expressing what was in his mind. Unfortunately voters think lack of articulation equals lack of coherent thought which of course isn’t true.
24 MM. Some trunk !!
6 If anything, the BNP benefits from a higher turnout, as some of their support comes from people who don’t usually vote. A large BNP Mayoral vote could hurt Johnson if relatively few of them give him their second preference, otherwise not. However, I expect there are still some white working class voters who are telling pollsters they’ll vote Labour, who may in the end, also vote BNP. Some of them may even give their second preference to Livingstone, who received about 7,500 second preferences from the BNP in 2004.
25 Johnson isn’t going backwards though, as this article demonstrates.
27. From +13 to +6 in a week on Yougov doesn’t sound like progress. As for the MORI poll it only polled 600 and together with other factors shouldn’t be compared to the much more complete poll done by the same company a few days earlier which had them neck and neck.
27
Is Boris on the right of Ken?
If so, why would BNP voters turn to Ken in second pref?
Presumably Brown was supporting Livingstone in the Hammersmith and Fulham constituency just before the game at Stamford Bridge on Monday night.
Can he do it again on the Saturday before the election, please?
29 - Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin and Atilla the Hun are all well to the right of Ken.
31
So why would BNP voters turn to Ken in second preference?
28 But he’s gone from 11% behind Livingstone, among all voters, to level-pegging (according to MORI). The two company’s findings are starting to converge.
re 25. A good point Roger. I’ve long thought that Brown’s biggest problem is that he is inarticulate and I have been surprised how during the current mayoral race Boris has demonstrated the same defect. Boris can make up for some of this with his charm.
32 They might mark the wrong box. Or be long-standing Labour supporters who’ll vote BNP as a protest, but Labour as second preference.
We know from council elections that there are people who split their votes between Conservatives and the Green Party, despite being poles apart.
Boris makes up for his slight lack of communication skills by being very enthusiastic and having a certain daft charm. Brown is dull as ditchwater and so comes off as just being inarticulate.
re 34. There are very few lucid articulate people in UK politics at the moment. John Reid, David Blunkett and Charles Clark were excellent though now they are side-lined. Vince Cable leads for the Lib Dems in this area completely over-shadowing the hapless Nick Clegg. And with for the Tories Cameron stands out though there are not many others.
35 - I thought that under Cameron the Tories were the true environmental party Sean, vote blue go green, no?
35 The late Lord (Tim) Beaumont of Whitley, the only Green peer who died last week, used to say that the Conservative Party between the wars was the true “Green” party of England - but when the landed gentry were overwhelmed by the industialists, they forgot that part of their heritage.
(Yes, Lord Beaumont was a bit eccentric.)
33. Sean. Taking the Yougov figures from March onwards gives Boris leads of 13-10-10-6. The graph is surely downwards? MORI is more difficult to compare. It’s two polls were carried out at almost the same time. One gave Ken a lead of 1 the other Boris a lead of 6. The second one only had a sample of 600 and was carried out overnight so probably less accurate than the earlier one.
37. Mike. I would add Denham Milliband and the much under used Tony Wright. For the Libs I’d add Sara Teather. You’ve already mentioned the Tory!
On an earlier thread I read one of the wisest remarks ever posted regarding canvassing. If someone meets your eye, smiles and says yes, you are there. Any shuffling, mumbling, looking down and avoiding your eye, they are opponents.
I have canvassed extensively in Barking and Dagenham. Almost inevitably some electors say we will be voting, havn’t decided, reading leaflets etc etc. They are often BNP. I have actually said on some cases “Oh I will mark you BNP then” “er yes” came the response.
31. Lenin and Stalin weren’t. Ken is an imperilaist who supported the NATO bombardment of Yugoslavia in 1999.
Obama surging on electability?
http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/DemocraticDebate/story?id=4658063&page=1
37 David Laws of course.
39 a “bit”? He was more than a bit…
These were the decades of “hardfaced men who had done well out of the war”.
25,37. Roger,Mike. I think William Hague is very good but I’m not sure that his political judgment is very sound. Teresa May quite good too. Michael Gove bright and entertaining.
Most of the Labour front bench I find very irritating, especially Balls and Ed Miliband. Burnham is good but very inexperienced. Baroness somebody, Leabour’s leader in the House of Lords, was excellent once on BBC Question Time.
For the LibDems Huhne is the other star along with Cable. Clegg effortless irritates as effectively as Balls or Ed Miliband.
42. Before your superior judgement, I bow.
Alan Duncan is ok, as is the tory shadow education spokesman (can’t remember his name). Both aren’t exactly brilliant but do a good job of getting over what they want to say. Most of the labour front bench end up confusing me so badly I have no idea what they’re saying.
I agreew with Sean Fear (35). I think that many traditional Labour people will this time vote BNP as a protest against Government policy, and then vote Labour as second preference, because that is still how they identify themselves.
So a first vote for the BNP does not automatically convert into a second vote for the Tory candidate. Far from it.
I think the way you ae looking at things is far too simplistic, Philippe (32).
47 - I agree, both parties are on the left in any case.
Brown’s interview on Channel IV was not inarticulate, just totally lacking in content, the worst yet. His response to pressure on the effect of inflation on the poor was “I wake up every morning worrying about it”- very reassuring. Twice, his reply to the question was to say they had raised the fuel allowance! He made it quite clear that he had no idea what to do.The interview was scarcely credible.
IL. Channel IV! I love it.
49 - The problem with the ‘wake up every morning’ kind of line is that it gives the impression of the dear old Gord waking up at 2am in a puddle of sweat crying ‘what am I going to do’.
51 - puddle of something, anyway…
22: The ballot paper asks both questions, Phillippe - it’s not like the French second round system.
Read a copy of the Mail that was lying around yesterday. Remarkable dichotomy between the news section, which was knocking Labour all over the place, and the editorial, which was commending Brown for his strenuous work to save the economy and slagging off the banks for not rallying round him.
They’re also predicting a Tory “night of the long knives” when Cameron supposedly will sack Fox and others to distract people from a Government reshuffle that it says Cameron expect. I’d be a bit cheesed off if I were Fox - ‘Sorry, old boy, got to sack you, we need to distract attention from that Caroline Flint promotion’!
Brown is not inarticulate.
But he does`nt empathy,(I feel your pain)like the master Blair and his apprentice Cameron.
GB needs to be what he is serious, substantial, dour.Especially in hard times.
Tell people how it is, give it to them straight, and you might get some credit.
Everyone knows, if they have been through a major trauma in ones life, the only people who can relate, are people who have had similar experiences.
Rich politicains going on about the price of eggs and they really undersatnd your concerns is truly laughable.
51 The problem is that no-one could possibly believe that Gordon’s first thoughts on waking are: “what can we do to help homeowners, to help those people who have got small businesses, people looking for jobs, people wanting opportunities so they can have better jobs for the future.”
That’s just not credible - to say that “my priorities are what we can do…..” would be OK. He needs a better speech writer.
L. XLIX?
LVI. - Only on PB.com could we start referencing posts in Roman Numerals!
LVI - I agree - should be XLIX surely? I’m sure I was taught that preceding could only be the one below (IX being the exception). ie 99 = LXLIX rather than IC and 1999 MCMLXLIX rather than MIM
58. Not quite. a lower character can precede a higher one to deduct a 1×10^n from either a 5×10^n or 1×10^(n+1), so in your example, the CM for 900 is right, but LXL for 90 isn’t - it would be XC. Hence, 1999 is MCMXCIX.
XXXXVI Cuddles. ‘Alan Duncan is ok’
Andrea will have your nether regions marmalized for such faint praise of his beloved miniature icon !!
……………………
My ‘Meanwhile’ range of posts is Romanised.
Hm, someone on here will know. V for five I can interpret as an outstretched hand, sort of, and X is two opposed Vs; C and M are the initial letters of the word for the quantity, but L? The Latin for 50 is quinquaginta (I just looked it up)…
There really isn’t any political news to-day, is there?
Sean Fear has said quite often that he thinks it will be Boris 52 ken 48 - all the polls to my mind just seem to be converging on that viewpoint.
Jacqui Smith said on the radio this morning something along the lines of ‘I wake up every day thinking about how to reduce the terrorist threat’ - is this now official Labour policy? Ministers from the Prime Minister down are only capable of addressing one problem at a time and see it as a selling point that they’re monomaniacs?
Hi Mike,
Just two points to make in response to your post.
1. Our headline reported figures are always the ‘combined’ figures because that is the most accurate way to calculate what will actually happen on election day; the winner of the ‘first preference vote’ is effectively meaningless because the second preferences have such an important effect on the outcome of the election (assuming no single candidate gets 50% at the first preference vote). This is why we lead with the ‘combined’ figure rather than first preference, although of course we publish all of our figures. And in response to post 22 [Philippe Magnan], both votes are taken at the same time, which means that almost all voters will register both a first and second preference vote. Because of the way the polls are looking (ie. none of the candidates is likely to receive 50% of the votes at first preference), second preference votes, and the calculation of a combined figure, are absolutely essential in calculating the winner of the election. The BBC has a good explanation here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7220411.stm.
2. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, utilising decimal places in the reporting of polls is often considered ‘bad practice’, as it implies that the figures are more accurate than they can be. It is essential to keep the margins of error in mind (about +/-4% for our poll for the Observer) when reading polling data, because the mathematics involved in calculating vote share demand that we do. The media and other coverage tends to focus solely on the ‘lead’ and the difference between the main parties, and they often fail to note whether or not the change in shares falls within the margin of error from previous polls. A difference of 2 points (Ken v Boris) is actually a statistical ‘dead heat’ as the figures are not different enough to make the difference between them statistically significant.
Cheers,
Julia Clark
Associate Director
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
@61:
From the ‘paedia:
“The tenth V or X along the stick received an extra stroke. Thus 50 was written variously as N, И, K, Ψ, ⋔, etc., but perhaps most often as a chicken-track shape like a superimposed V and I - ᗐ. This had flattened to ⊥ (an inverted T) by the time of Augustus, and soon thereafter became identified with the graphically similar letter L.”
‘I wake up every day thinking about how to reduce the terrorist threat’
By wasting six billion pounds on identity cards, which didn’t prevent terrorism in France or Spain?
@63:
Are the margins of error on your polls 95% confidence intervals?
65 It could become a bit of a party game, couldn’t it? Think up an amusing conclusion to the phrase “I wake up every day thinking about……”
65, it’s like the ban on protesting in Parliament. How many terrorists have ever planned an evil strike, preceded by some peaceful placard-waving, only to call the whole thing off when the police rejected their “Anti-infidel” protest?
Betting on the Mayoralty - Fortunately my spectacular miscalculation that Boris would bomb as a candidate has not proved expensive !
I made the cardinal error of forgetting that being a buffoon was no bar to public office or electability. One only has to look at the front benches of all main parties to see that !!. And in Boris the Conservatives have a man whose name recognition and amiable comedic status masks his palpable weaknesses.
There is no doubt that Mayor Boris will provide us all with many hours of entertainment and over at Top Table Tory Towers there will be years of political buttock clenching as they await his latest gaffe with a wide eyed mixture of fear, puzzlement and nervous laughter. So bring it on …. Boris for Mayor and IMO he remains value in the market anywhere north of 1/2 !!
[64] Many thanks, Martin. This place continues to amaze and delight…
re 63. Thanks for that Julia.
I think that one of the problems here is that YouGov, the other main pollster covering the election, is being reported mostly on its first preference figures. Thus on Monday it was the 6% first preference lead not the 8% after second preferences that was the centre of attention.
In fact the 8% had not moved from the previous poll.I would argue that the second preference numbers are much less robust. Many people I’ve spoken too don’t quite understand the system and it is here where MORI and YouGov are now most at variance.
63 Julia. As a fellow senior operative of a distinguised polling organization may I cordially welcome you to the bosom of ARSE. We’re looking to expand my ARSE considerably and any fraternal thoughts would be most welcome.
72 Steady on, Jack, don’t frighten the poor girl away!
Was there any evidence in 2004 of people getting confused about the Assembly voting system by putting 1 vote down for the constituency seat and a different party for the list? (other than those who realised a second Conservative vote was a wasted one).
Is this the sort of thing that could harm the BNP’s chances?
73 Augustus. I understand Julia is a robust figure and has as they say ‘plenty of bottom’ …. which as you’ll appreciate for ARSE is quite an advantage !!
72: If Julia only pops on here occassionally and isn’t aware of the in joke that post is going to very confusing… scary possibly
74 (con) - related to this there is also an arguable case for the Conservatives to strongly urge their supporters to vote for one of the other (non-BNP) parties with their list vote.
re Articulate politicians, I was quite impressed by Jacquie Smith on the Today program this morning. She came across very well, and actually answered the questions that she was given. Though I’m sure John Humphries wouldn’t have given her such easy questions…
If Gord continues these antics then go in heavy on Boris!
MP claims ‘raging’ Gordon breaks three phones a week by hurling them at the wall
But it appears free-falling opinion polls and reports Labour is now turning in on itself have pushed the Prime Minister to untold levels of frustration.
One Labour MP told the Evening Standard he “recently got through three mobile phones in one week by hurling against the wall in anger”.
OT Italian elections final results (including ex spats seats)
Senate
PdL 147 seats
Lega 25
MPA 2
(total Berlusconi 174)
PD 119
Italy of Values (DiPietro) 14
(total Veltroni 133)
UDC 3
SVP 3
Vallè d’Aoste 1
Movimento Associativo Italiani Estero 1
Chamber of Deputies
PdL 276 seats
Lega 60
MPA 8
(total Berlusconi 344)
PD 217
Italy of Values (DiPietro) 29
(total Veltroni 246)
UDC 36
SVP 2
Autonomie Libertè Democratie 1
Movimento Associativo Italiani Estero 1
76 Anthony. I think not. Since my ARSE appeared on the polling scene there have been high level discussions amongst all the major pollsters on how to handle it. I have to tell them, it’s just too big for them to get a grip on.
74 - Why is it a waste of a vote to go for the same party on the constituency list and topup list?
79. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=559576&in_page_id=1770
Seems tables and secretaries aren’t safe either.
Wont be long until the men in white coats come for him in the night.
82 - The Conservatives didn’t get any list seats in 2004.
80 Andrea. Thanks for all the updates. Much worse for the centre-left than the early exit polls. Looks like old Burli could go the distance.
Further to my questions about the electoral system - does every party that puts up candidates for the constituency vote, have to do so for the list? Furthermore, what is to stop the official Conservative Party putting up candidates for the constituency, but then forming a “front” party (say called “Conservative List”) for the List vote. The List Party would have no constituency seats so would be free to take a substantial number of the London wide seats.
74 It would be impossible to tell how many people split their votes deliberately, and others mistakenly. I think though, that many people would regard the list vote (wrongly but understandably) as a second preference vote.
A little note for your early morning diaries - Obama and Clinton meet in Philadelphia for the latest debate at 1am. Sponsored by ABC, it will be streamed live by the network :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/16/hillaryclinton.barackobama
82 - it’s not unless you vote Tory - they win so many FPTP seats that aren’t due any on the top-up, so you may as well vote Lib or UKIP or whatever for the top-up seats. The other way around, if you’re a Lib voter in lots of seats, your first vote is a bit meaningless as the libs wont win the seat, so you could use that to choose Lab or Tory and then use the top up for lib to ensure they get the top up seats. As to if anyone understands the system and its complexities - I doubt more than a handful do, and they generally will those that post here.
86 - I was thinking on similar lines - why don’t they put all their constituency members up as Independent Conservatives?
84. But voters wouldn’t have known that in advance, given that the Tories did have a list seat in 2000.
My hunch is that Tories pretty much vote ‘the line’ though this time around Boris may get some personal votes from people who would not vote Tory for the constituencies or the list.
[86] There’s a discussion of that point on the relevant thread of VoteUK (Iain Lindley’s Forum). It’s unlikely that the Electoral Commission would approve a political description which was a “dummy” for that purpose - after all, its candidates would presumably be Conservative party members.
92 IA. ‘Dummy Conservatives’ ….. Tempting, so very tempting !!
86. That is arguably a fundamental weakness of having a top-up list based on a second vote. You could top-up on the basis of one vote cast purely in the constituencies (though the smaller parties would cry foul if this happened).
90. Because they would not be ‘independent’, would they?
What exactly is Gordon going to say to the (spoonerism alert) Bankers of Wall Street when he meets them on this trip?
“Oi - you lot - stop being so crap Start presiding over a glorious decade of growth - like what I did.”
Oh, okay Mr Brown, we see the error of our ways - sorry. We will immediately take all necessary steps to ameliorate the effects on the UK economy of our former profligate actions….
Await the press release of their meeting with some interest. Of course, it might not go to plan if some Yankee banker* stood up and said “One - who the f**k are you? And two - who the f**k are you to tell us what the f**k to do - Mr. Miracle-Gro Economy…”
(*He earns a little bit of cash on the side as an extra in The Sopranos)
Who has stiched Broon up? Goes to Washington, non BA or RAF aircraft, arrives on visit at the same time as the Pope.
a} the FCO?
b} GWB?
c} the Pope?
d} the media?
e} his own team?
f] Team Blair?
g} BA?
h} The RAF?
i} Brown for not checking his diary?
63. Julia
You have obviously not realised that this site exists primarily to read extra detail, precision, and certainty into your polls, where none exists.
8 Mark
I’m confused. In the USA the public have overwhelmingly blamed the banks for the mess in the mortgage market, with some blame going to buyers exceeding their means, and a little blame to the regulators [are there regulators in the US?]
Is it different in the UK? Are the government to blame here? If this had happened under a Tory [Pretty Boy Dave branch] administration would the government have been to blame?
Perhaps someone might help on this complex issue.
Malcolm
O/T. No PMQs today, but what would the topics of discussion be, if there had been?
I think Cameron would have led on Northern Rock’s failure to pass on the interest rate cut, while Clegg would have gone with the SFO’s (non-)investigation into BAE.
96 All of the above are currently vying for the credit….
87: that was certainly the case in the Scottish Parliament list vote
98 malc19ken - the US can blame the banks? Good for them. In the UK, the banks are (a) under the regime of regulation set up by Brown and (b) with NR being taken into public ownership, it gets rahter confused: blaming the banks = blaming the UK Govt here. Especially when NR isn’t passing on the interest rate cut from the independent Bank of England.
So who else should the British public blame for our worse than Banana-republic public finances? Gordon looks a pretty good patsy to me.
85. Jack, yes, it’s a good majority for Silvio at the Senate. He couldn’t hope in a bigger one.
Ah, Luxuria lost her seat (along all her party)
Malc -
1) Gordon’s been applauding himself for ten years of growth which were more due to global circumstances - seems only fair he gets the blame in the opposite situation. However,
2) Gordon’s been making rubbish decisions for ten years (like selling gold, taxing our pensions so we all have to work eight years longer, taking house prices out of the inflation measures) and generally squandering the money from the good times on, well, who knows - but we’ve not got much to show for it. The money was coming in, and - believing he had killed boom and bust - he just cheerfully spent it.
3) For ten years he’s gone on about ‘an end to boom and bust’. I’m still reading government documents patting themselves on the back for having ‘put an end to boom and bust’. I think he deserves a bit of stick for his hubris.
94 - Yes they would. If they all left the Conservative party and didn’t take any funding from it, then they could stand as Independent conservatives and not affect the Conservative party’s topup allocation. Of course, it might not go down too well in the press…
86. Nothing, AFAIK. Such “decoy” parties were common in Italy under the previous hybrid electoral system.
80. Right, so will Betfair pay out now? Have they paid out this morning?
98. Its never Gordon’s fault - please try and keep up.
89:
Ooh, me! I just like saying the words “D’Hondt Procedure” because, frankly, it sounds absolutely filthy.
41 Peter Golds
Thank you for your kind remarks about my post on canvassing technique. I was taught it from an elderly east London councillor [a lovely old chap in his nineties] in the early sixties.
He said “when you are out canvassing remember the expression ‘the eyes have it’ and you won’t go far wrong.” It can be made more sophisticated but I always felt that the simplicity of his remark was worth far more than any of the Labour election schools I ever attended.
Malcolm
98.”Perhaps someone might help on this complex issue.”
Not complex, pretty simple. Gordon Brown has taken all the credit for the last 10 years of UK economic growth, which is all due to his love of the words stability and prudence, we know he ended the years of boom and bust which was all the fault of those nasty Tories because he has told so repeatedly. He likes to lecture other countries about his economic greatness too.
So if you take all the credit for the upturn in the economy, you take the blame for the downturn…..except selling off the gold reserves at the lowest prices which is still the fault of those terrible Tories.
To be fair, there’s no reason why Northern Rock should be passing on the rate cut, seeing as they’re supposed to be trying to downsize their mortgage book. Considering also the debate about whether their status gives them an unfair advantage, they would also be on somewhat dodgy ground if they broke ranks and started offering cheaper deals.
98. “If this had happened under a Tory [Pretty Boy Dave branch] administration would the government have been to blame?”
yes and there would be lots of comparisons between George Osbourne’s wealth and others and people whose homes were getting repossessed. e.g. This minister has a portfolio of 6 properties in 3 continents, yet Mr and Mrs Bloggs are down to their last pennies and in a hostel since their home got repossessed. Mr. Bloggs said they are out of touch and don’t know what its like for ordinary people. The Minister who is on holiday in Tuscany was unable to respond.
112. To be fair there is no reason why any bank should pass on a BOE cut. If they want the business they offer a competitive rate - if not then they dont. Its not for the govt to dictate what companies sell their services for.
Personally I think a distinction should be drawn between mortgages with longer team variable rate deals and short fixed term deals. The obligation to pass on rate cuts (if it exists) attaches far more to the former than the latter (see HSBC have raised rates on the latter today, whilst keeping the former static)
48 James Burdett
You are doing it again. Anything you don’t like is on the left. We are all milk and water Tories now [all three branches.] You’d probably fit nicely into the extreme right-wing of the Republican Party [not the neo-cons] but here in the UK Tories [Pretty Boy Dave branch] must find you a bit of an anachronistic old fart.
As for the BNP; you need to have political intellect to be considered a political party, that mob have all the grace and sound judgement of a bunch of football hooligans.
Malcolm
114 - True but when the government is bashing the banks to pass on the BoE rate cut it is patently ludicrous that the bank it owns is one of the refuseniks.
53 - Of course Nick Palmer does not remind us that there is also newspaper speculation that after 1st May, Brown will do a re-shuffle.
Speculation that is all both are, nothing more, nothing less. Newspaper print stories to sell newspapers.
@116:
The thing with the BNP is, they may be a mob at the grassroots, but at the top of the party are some very smart people, tapping into a very real wellspring of discontent.
We belittle them at our peril.
116 - Not at all, but I have never considered the German NSDAP to be a party of the right. The ‘S’ is the key. Look at the policies of the BNP and it is a pretty left wing thing. It is a triumph of the soft left that they have made racialism an overtly right wing thing, it isn’t.
112 Agreed - no good commercial reason for NR to pass on the cut in interest rates EXCEPT it is currently under public ownership - and Brown has been urging the banks and building societies to pass on the cut! It’s where politics and business clash. One can only assume that Brown is trying to point to those bastard bankers as causing all the pain for voters - whilst quietly telling the same bastard bankers of NR to claw in as much money as quickly as they can - so sod passing on the cut to the poor buggers with a NR mortgage.
103 Andrea. Luxuria lost !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
110 - In the suburbs I find that if someone says, not sure, I will think about it, have not made up my mind or possibly, they are a polite person who will vote Lib Dem. More often than not, if they complete a survey, they “shy” people on the doorstep, will mark on the survey Lib Dem.
The Labour party in trouble for making major announcements in the run up to the local elections reports sky news.
A mention for this story with the credit going to the blogsphere.
We have better regulation than the US in my opinion, which is why our banks are (probably) in a better state than the american ones. Also, as far as I know, her Majesty’s official opposition have mostly been the ones calling for the cuts in “red tape” over the last 10 years - which if anything would in hindsight would have made the situation much worse. So the party political stuff about how the current government has caused the current financial crisis is well wide of the mark.
The best valid point against Brown is some of the stuff he has taken credit for has not been of his doing - then again name me a politician who doesn’t or wouldn’t do this in an instant whenever the opportunity arises.
102 Mark
Isn’t there a good case for the shareholders and executives of the banks that made such vomit-inducing profits when they were giving mortgages to everyone who could breathe to cough up now from their former ill-gotten gains? Or is ‘fairness’ something we don’t do in market-based capitalism?
Malcolm
124 Tried to post on that on Friday but something about ref to No 10 web site caused it to be blocked. The link went direct from No 10 to Labour Local Elections site.
126. Lol. No there isn’t - which is why NR should have been sold to Lloyds for 1p a share.
125.So after months of differing we have to nationalise a bank, yet in America the problem is sorted over a weekend with the bank being sold.
Are you telling me that Brown was not aware of the fact that easy credit was fuelling the economy, and politically more important to him, the feel good factor which became such a election winner for New Labour??
104 Cookie
I’m no apologist for Brownstuff and his policies when he was CoE [wonder if a CofS can be CofE, I digress,] but I feel the blame needs to be spread around a bit. It is intellectually unsustainable to treat complex issues with simplistic answers.
Always thought that the average IQ round here was high enough to treat matters a little more seriously than one would expect from the inmates of a typical primary school playground.
Malcolm
129 - in fairness, if you’re thinking of Bear Stearns, there’s about three years’ worth of litigation being filed as we speak.
The shareholders are suing the buyer, the board, the SEC, each other, and some guy who drives a tourist bus along Wall Street. There is the advantage that they cannot get the buy-out reversed (because even if it gets sorted out, it will be too late), but they could bankrupt a few people, and have an interesting effect on the law as to when and how the Fed can intervene (it suspended its own rules in this case, and no-one is sure if that is allowed)
119. I’d say the BNP was the other way round.
The activists, and candidates, are generally the repugnant ones - Thugs, hypocrits or sociopaths (with the exception of the more intelligent Nick Griffin and maybe one or two others) who believe in extreme racial politics, anti-semitism and have barely disguised admiration for fascist regimes.
However, those that vote for them are not like this. Their voters are often patriotic, core Labour working-class voters who wouldn’t hurt a fly and are the sort who’d be described as “salt-of-the-earth” by any reasoned observer.
But, they also feel totally ignored and marginalised by the governing parties and are *desperate* for someone to listen to them. They are the ones who have been on the “front-line” of large-scale immigration for the last 10 years - something v. few of us here can appreciate, being middle-class n’ all.
True, make no bones about it, they are strongly attracted by the BNPs anti-immigrant message, but they are hardly Nazis in disguise. They are just decent people who’ve had enough and want their voices to be heard.
When we attack the BNP, we should be careful to attack *THEM* the party itself, not those that vote for them, lest we marginalise and radicalise those voters further and push them firmly into the arms of a very unpleasant and odious organisation.
129. Do you honestly think that the “problem is sorted” in the US now?
That is a delusional point of view, in my opinion. It looks like they are in this a lot deeper than we are (at the moment…).
I don’t think that the sales of Bear Stearns and Northern Rock are directly comparable, or that the speed of sale (which you point to) is necessarily a positive thing.
131.But you can say the same about the nationalisation of NR too.
111 ChrisD
Did you give Brownstuff all the credit for the good years? If you did then you have the right to give him blame for the bad years, if not, then it would appear you are being a little disingenuous.
Malcolm
132 - The problem (or maybe not) is that as BNP support becomes more established, many of these “salt of the earth” passive supporters will become activists and start standing in elections.
Do we have any hard figures or other evidence to back up the latest “point of view” (to put it mildly) being expressed on here that the BNP is in fact a left wing party attracting Labour voters, rather than the far-right party competing more with the Conservatives that many people think it is?
133.Again, do you honestly believe the problem is sorted out in Britain now, or do you buy into the fact that we are about 9 months behind America and have yet to really feel the effects of the downturn?
I am not being delusional at all, but you are assuming that we are going to get off more lightly than America. I don’t know what is going to happen over the next year and I suspect that both the American and British governments are flying by the seat of their pants hoping that it won’t be as bad as some of the omens are predicting.
126 - excellent idea Malcolm. Lets demand that the pension, insurance and assurance industries cough up the benefits of their ill gotten ’shareholder’ gains. And let’s not forget the people that have had the temerity to benefit from unit trusts and ISAs - they should be made to pay some of proceeds of their exploitation back as well.
That’ll help sort out this mess once and for all.
135 - I’m not sure if that really follows, does it? Seeing as the main thrust of the criticism is that the current problems are largely related to the actions taken previously to keep the “good times” rolling. That the “great economy” was built, not on substantial foundations and sound economic management, but largely on immigration, cheap credit and soaring house prices.
130 “thought that the average IQ round here was high enough to treat matters a little more seriously than one would expect from the inmates of a typical primary school playground”
But the IQ’s round here are focussed on what the mood of the Great Unwashed will be - and how that translates into voting trends. Round here the great IQ’s (with the exception of Emily Webster-Tyndall-Mosely or whatever “she” calls herself) don’t have any truck with the BNP - but the fact they have no cheerleaders here hardly represents what is going to happen on 1st May.
135/140 (con) - if anything, those who spent the last 10 years praising Gordon’s performance are actually worse placed to give the blame to him now!
134 You could, and I don’t in any way wish to attack your point. However, I think the litigation in the UK is utterly doomed - the bank was Nationalised, which cannot be effectively countered in Court given the primacy of Parliament, and an attempt by Hedge Fund mmanagers to sue under the Human Rights Act (I jest not) is so risable that even the European Courts won’t give it time.
However, in the US (as far as I understand it, which is not that far), the private sale to JPMG was facilitated by the Fed and SEC relaxing their rules, which may be an utra vires action under their charters. The shareholders are on pretty strong ground, which is why I think the price went from $2 to $10 so quickly - they were hoping the shareholders would leave it alone if they got a halfway decent price. I cannot see JMPG giving away that much extra cash if they thought they were in a strong position.
All this caveated with the admission that I have not followed this that closely, and am no expert (as others here will attest). Anyone out there know the details of the Bear Stearns sale?
135.Malcolm, you asked a question and I gave you a genuine answer. *Brown* has taken all the credit for the UK economy as a glance at any speech he has made over the years as chancellor will back up.
Now I am being disingenuous because I might not have believed his spin…
117 - I can see the political rationale for condemning Northern Rock over not passing on rate cuts. But NR is in an exceptional position as a failed bank - it is imperative that they attract deposits and trim their mortgage exposure and that means lagging behind on their mortgage offers which were insanely and ultimately fatally generous 18 months ago.
Ghost is broadly right at 114. Bank interest rates are the product of supply and demand like anything else. Cuts in the base rate (modest ones to date) alleviate the difficulty for banks obtaining the money to lend but don’t completely counteract the effects of the credit crunch in that regard. So there is no reason they should necessarily be passed on in full. On the other hand, there is nothing wrong in the Government bringing pressure to bear if they feel banks are not passing on to the extent they could.
137 - Look at their policies etc and you will see a heavily leftish bent. Racism alone cannot shift a party from one extreme to another. The BNP are a racist left wing party. Where they gain there support from is not particularly relevant to where they sit on the political spectrum.
146. What aspects of BNP policy should pursuade us it is a “left wing” party?
147 - I assume it’s economic policies are pretty left wing.
*its. Sorry
139
Somehow I don’t think that would work, well not easily. But don’t we all have to take a little blame when things go wrong? My analogy is the reaction of American citizens to the war in Iraq. The popularity of the war was fairly high when Bush invaded. It took a long time for the American public who had been arm-chair quarterbacks for the war to come to the conclusion that it was a mistake, for which they had to take responsibilty. It took a long time for many Americans to own up to their complicity.
Those who have been enjoying so much prosperity under NuLabour must enjoy some of the hurt when things are going badly.
Malcolm
135 - I think the truth is somewhere in between as ever, Malcolm. There is a global economic slowdown and there is nothing anyone in the UK could have done to buck that trend. Those who say something could have been done on that fundamental level or that what is happening is in some way unique to Britain are being dishonest.
But it seems to me fair to criticise Brown for not giving his successor as Chancellor the chance to use fiscal policy to help smooth the downturn (because he was imprudent in the second half of his chancellorship) and for never really addressing consumer credit issues in a serious way. For those reasons, it may be more painful than it would otherwise be in Britain - although the pain was never completely avoidable.
142 alex
And vice-versa?
Malcolm
[147] I don’t think the BNP’s USP has anything to do with economics.
138. it isn’t sorted in Britain now by any stretch, I’m not optimistic at all, but I think the US is considerably worse off for a number of structural reasons. We don’t have anything like the housing market weakness they have, now or 9 months ago (although some of our financials are exposed to their housing, of course), for a start.
The recent IMF report suggested that they are expecting us to fare better than anyone else in the G7, even grow in 2008. Which would be astonishingly good, if it came true. That level of decoupling from the US would not have been possible 10 years ago.
Anyway that wasn’t really my point: none/little of this has anything to do with political decisions. Why not judge Brown on his actual record of making decisions, making and repealing financial laws, raising money, spending money, etc. In my view this a mixed bag of good, bad, and indifferent - and includes almost none of the topics being hysterically raised here.
151
Excellent post, James.
Malcolm
143.”All this caveated with the admission that I have not followed this that closely, and am no expert