Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
April 18th, 2008
The Welsh Local Elections
Wales is seeing all-out local elections on May 1st. There are twenty two Welsh Unitary Authorities with 1,264 seats coming up for election. There are several curious features about Welsh local politics. Firstly, Labour doesn’t enjoy anything like the dominance in Wales that it enjoys at Parliamentary level. Currently it holds just eight of the authorities and does not control either Cardiff, or Swansea, Wales’ largest cities. Secondly, ratepayers, independents, and other non-party candidates remain very powerful. They dominate some rural authorities, and remain numerous even in the South Wales valleys, that are (usually) Labour strongholds in Parliamentary elections. Unlike their counterparts in some rural English districts, however, they should not be regarded as Conservatives in disguise. There are some Condependents in places like Pembrokeshire, and Powys, but overall, plenty of independents are supporters of either Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or Plaid Cymru. Thirdly, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats leave many seats uncontested, particularly in the South Wales valleys, and rural Welsh-speaking areas. The Conservatives however, have striven this year to increase the number of seats they contest.
When the councils were last fought, in 2004, Labour won 31% of the vote, 479 seats, and eight councils. Independents and minor parties won 27%, 356 seats, and three councils. Plaid won 16% of the vote, 175 seats and one council. The Liberal Democrats won 14%, 146 seats, and no councils. The Conservatives 11%, 107 seats, and one council. Nine councils are under no overall control.
Given Labour’s current poor standing in opinion polls, and the big drop in their vote in the Welsh Assembly elections, the party is likely to sustain significant losses in Wales. Turning to the individual councils:-
Blaenau Gwent should be lost by Labour to No Overall Control. They have lost the constituency three times in a row, and Peoples’ Voice are fielding a sufficiently large number of candidates to provide real opposition to Labour. Bridgend, governed by anti-Labour coalition, should remain under No Overall Control. Caerphilly provided a shock win for Plaid in 1999. Labour won it back narrowly in 2004, but a loss of just 4 seats would see it go to No Overall Control, which is likely.
Cardiff saw the Liberal Democrats fall just short in 2004, and on paper, they should gain the six seats they need to gain control. Yet, they finished a long way behind both Labour and the Conservatives, outside their Cardiff Central stronghold, in 2007, and another strong Conservative performance may just deny them overall control. They will certainly remain the largest party. Carmarthernshire, currently run by a joint Labour/Indpendent administration, will remain under No Overall Control, but expect to see Plaid advance. Ceredigion, presently under No Overall Control, is Plaid’s top target in this election.
I think they’ll take it, on the back of a strong Assembly vote, but Independents confuse the picture. Conwy will remain under No Overall Control, but should see the Conservatives advance. Denbighsire will remain under No Overall Control. Flintshire, with a Labour majority of just two seats, should pass to No Overall Control, although Labour will remain the largest party. Gwynedd will remain under Plaid’s control, although a new local party, Voice of Gwynedd, should gain a few seats. Merthyr Tydfil has a Labour majority of just one seat, with the opposition consisting of independents. In all likelihood, Labour will lose this to No Overall Control, with Plaid picking up a seat or two. Monmouthshire, the Conservatives’ only council, should remain easily under their control. Neath Port Talbot will be lost by Labour if they lose just four seats. However, they’ve managed to persuade two unopposed Ratepayers to join them so will probably just cling on. Typically for the South Wales valleys, this is a Conservative and Liberal Democrat-free zone. Newport currently has a Labour majority of twelve. Labour should just hold on, but they are threatened by the strong performances put in by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in West and East respectively, in the Assembly election.
Pembrokeshire currently has a comfortable Independent majority. For the first time, the council is being properly contested by the Conservatives, who are fielding twenty one candidates. Independents should hold their majority, but will lose a number of seats to the Conservatives in areas that vote Conservative at Parliamentary level. Similarly, Powys will remain under Independent control, but the Conservatives should pick up a handful of seats here. Rhondda Cynon Taff, a Labour citadel the late nineteenth century, produced another shock win for Plaid in 1999. Labour won it back in a landslide in 2004, and will hold it this time, but will probably lose some seats to Plaid. Swansea, currently under No Overall Control, will remain so, and Torfaen will remain under Labour control. Vale of Glamorgan, in theory, should be an easy Conservative gain from No Overall Control. Yet, the Conservatives have underperformed here in every round of elections since 1997, still failing to capture the seat in the Assembly last year. I think they’ll take overall control this time, but wouldn’t be surprised if they fail. Wrexham, currently under No Overall Control, offers Labour’s only real chance of a gain, following the disappearance of Forward Wales. However, it will probably remain under No Overall Control. Finally, Ynys Mon will remain Independent.
In summary then, I expect Labour to retain four councils, and lose perhaps 90 seats, but remain the largest party, overall. I would expect Plaid to win two councils, and maybe gain 30-40 seats. I would expect to see the Conservatives win two councils, and gain around 40 seats. I would expect to see Independents retain three councils, and the Liberal Democrats to just fall short in Cardiff, but gaining 20 or so seats between them. Eleven councils should be under No Overall Control.
Finally, I must thank the political activist “Meurig” for his invaluable comments on my predictions.
There were two by-elections last night.
Suffolk County Council, Stowmarket. Conservative 834, Lib Dem 781, Green 231, Labour 190, UKIP 114. Conservative hold. Both Conservatives and Lib Dems pushed up their vote strongly, at the expense of Labour, compared to the last by-election here in 2007.
Eden District Council, Morland. Independent 198, Conservative 108, LibDem 74. Indpendent gain from Conservative.
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Thanks Sean.
How is the Conservatives overall position in Wales now? Are they recovering after the 90’s wipe-out? Or are thing still very bad?
Where do you stand on the Tories needing to win Gwyneth Dunwoody’s seat to prove they can get a general election majority?
Interesting article as always Sean.
RodCrosby on the last thread - I do agree with you. It’s becoming hilariously easy for the Tories to make excuses for by-elections, but I think that’s symptomatic of being so brusied and beaten by previous performances. So much so that the Tory confidence has just withered on the vine when it comes to by-elections. A self-defeating prophecy if you will.
I disagree with your general point that failing to win a by-election means failing to do well in a general election, but I do think Crewe and Nantwich is more important than any by election since 1997.
Because it has Labour 1st, Conservative 2nd and Lib Dem 3rd. Clear progression from Government/Opposition/Third Party. And an 8% swing in a by election is peanuts. Peanuts.
sorry to be OT so early but more Labour MP’s voice concern over 10p tax band.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1313218,00.html
Can we agree that it would be bad for the Conservatives in general, and perhaps for David Cameron in particular, if they were to slip to third place behind the Lib Dems?
1 - The Conservatives have recovered reasonably well in Wales, picking up three seats and moving themselves into reasonable positions in some others. They also did quite well in the 2007 Assembly elections, picking up four extra constituency seats in addition to the one they held (they consequently lost list seats but that doesn’t matter as a General Election indicator so much).
I wouldn’t really know the ins and outs of it but understand that a lot of people in the Tory party make the point that this all compares rather favourably to the Scottish Conservatives who are widely criticised by comparison.
An excellebt summary Sean , I agree on most points , I think the LibDems will fall short of overall control in Cardiff , there are a couple of seats in split wards they will gain from Labour but no new wards that they were close in 2004 which would give them the necessary seats for overall control . I do think however that Labour will lose overall control in Newport losing seats to Conswevatives and rather more to the LibDems . Overall I think Plaid will fall back but may have local success in 1 or 2 areas .
2 - Agreed. I also don’t know why some Conservative posters are being so cautious. Given the political cliff Labour have fallen off even a combination of Grant Shapps and Tony Lit would be enough to beat Labour.
Augustus - Surely, for the Tories to get any votes at all in Crewe and Nantwich would be an amazing achievement. It would spell the resurgence of the party North of Notting Hill and mean that Cameron would sweep to power.
Has that managed expectations sufficiently?
3. It’s the NuLab Hokey Cokey government!
Three more PPS’ have registered concern about the 10p band but won’t resign. Oh that’s good then. Just like the Labour ministers campaigning against Post Office closures but supporting the policy in Parliament.
This government is bringing the doctrine of ministerial responsibility to its knees.
Why Labour could lose Crewe
http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/postcode/cw1/1/change_desc
8 - I think the first step is completing the nomination paper. If the Conservatives can find somebody willing to stand and ten people to sign it, even if they don’t ultimately vote for them, it will be a major achievement akin to El Alamein and Mrs Osborne can start picking out curtains for Number 11.
Oh one other piece of information on C&N - it is rumoured Chris Rennard expects polling day on 15th May.
And just to pull Sean Fear up on one thing - The Tory vote was marginally down on 2005:
ALDC report the changes as follows:
Suffolk CC, Stowmarket North and Stowupland
Con 834 (38.8; -0.7), LD Nicky Turner 781 (36.3; +18.1), Green 231 (10.7;+1.6), Lab 190 (8.8; -24.5), UKIP 114 (5.3; +5.3).
Majority 53. Turnout 27%. Con hold. (Percentage change since May 2005).
Terrible result for Labour who were pretty close second in 2005.
Nick must be for raising taxes on the poor unless he has threatened to jack his job in as well!
The long-term trend in Wales has been in the Tories’ favour, completely the opposite to Scotland. About a 6.5% swing to the Tories since 1955…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/wales.jpg
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/scotland.jpg
Matt 1 I like the ‘hokey cokey government’ - lead by the chief jester and his juggler Mr Balls and supported by his darling?
Chris Rennard - I bet he is on the train there already. The problem with the Lib Dems is they are setting Clegg up for a fall by not sitting on their hands in this seat. If Clegg does not win given the recent negative publicity he is doomed and Huhne will have to be given a turn.
If the local elections are as bad for the LD’s as i suspect - failure in C & N for the LD’s would be a serious setback for the party and fatal for Clegg. My reasoning for this is the LD’s have set themselves a high bar by being the By - election party. They won’t have won since Kennedy was leader and they ditched him. Think the rot set in on Ming, when he did not take Sedgefield or E.S. Just imagine how bad this could be for the LD’s if they fail to win.
14. Crikey, thats quite amazing. I would have thought, long term, the Conservatives would be doing at least as bad in Wales as they are in Scotland.
16 - keep taking the tablets Martin…
Boris looks to have made another gaffe this week - attacking Brian Paddick on crime and then backing down straight away when questioned about it - http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=p84UMKG8B9k
We will see whether the gaffe cost him votes, his team must be hoping they can get to voting day before any real damage is done.
16 - Clegg is going nowhere, in every sense
16. The Lib Dems are realistic, they will expect the Conservatives to win, like almost everyone else.
I expect a landslide.
Your obsession with Clegg is fascinating.
17. No, they’ve rebounded very well in Wales. Partly this is because I think Wales *is* becoming more gentrified than in the past - is being seen more favourably as a retirement destination - Cardiff is becoming more affluent…
… and also because, whilst Plaid are doing quite well, they do not have anywhere near the support of the SNP. Probably down to the fact that Wales is much more unionist than Scotland. It has closer historical ties to England.
Tory support in Wales at the moment is deeply ‘pocketed’, and I don’t think we’ll see it break out of those pockets any time soon. But yes, they’re in a much better position in Wales than in Scotland.
17. Scotland has swung 11% to Labour since 1945 - that’s a 17.5% swing divergence between the two Celtic fringes…
18. No i think you are on acid if you cannot see that Clegg has a problem. The LD’s were split nearly 50/50 when Clegg was “elected” plus the result was questioned due to postal ballots. If Clegg does not go anyway in locals and a by- election - i think a ruthless party like the LD’s who are on the 4th leader in 2 years will ditch Clegg.
21. He was a rude and bottled awnsering questions when the going got tough on this site. He will seat and past comment on his sex life (Past) but could not be bothered reaching out to new potential voters!
23.Does that differ greatly to the neighbouring English constituencies in both areas?
14. Thinking about this, surely the collapse of the Labour vote in traditonal areas (which doesn’t help the Tories) and the rise of the SNP compared to Plaid (which doesn’t help them either) might be helping close the gap between Labour and the Tories, even if the Tory vote isn’t even increasing?
Must say that Sean Fear’s knowledge of Welsh politics is far better than mine - and I live here - and probably quite a bit better than the Notting Hill set too. Although Boris did fight a seat here (Clwyd South in ‘97). Wonder if that sharpened him up for the London campaign?
25. He will seat = He will sit!
16 Are you prepared to quantify the bad result you expect the LibDems to get on May 1st in the local elections or is this just more bullsh*t thinking on your part ?
24. The Lib Dems are pining for that moment, back in 2003-2005, where all of a sudden it felt like they meant something deeply significant in UK politics. For the first time in years they had large public support by taking a different stance on a hugely important policy (Iraq) than the main two parties. It must have felt like they were on a high.
But they failed to make the inroads they should have done at the general election and with Iraq’s importance fading away they’re slowly creeping back to square one - the party of mild protest.
22 - Also, I would think that the Tories do well in Wales at the Libs expense (in comparison with Scotland, where the Libs made a good attempt at replacing them). Anyonw know why the difference - something to do with the Libs non-conformist roots?
30. A win for them in Crewe and Nantwich would be hugely significant, therefore, in giving them a brief shot of the morale they had back in the heady days of 2003-2005.
I can’t see it, but Rennard will be working round the clock to try and pull it off…
17. Yes, amazing, especially as the graphs are controlled for the overall UK party shares.
In other words, the graphs show what has happened in Scotland and Wales as if at every general election the Tories and Labour got identical shares of the UK-wide vote.
29. Not sure a loss of 100- 200 for the LD’s and no i am not going to bet on it!
Why do you have to be so rude? I may joke and take the mick out of our “democratic rulers” but i don’t tend to deride other peoples contributions unless provoked. That said i am sure your prediction will be as accurate this year as last!
34 Well not too long till May 1st/2nd when we see whose prediction is most accurate this year . I think you should reread some of your more outlandish posts and reassess your ideas of what is rude or not .
Forensic and accomplished article as usual, Sean. In agreeing with almost all your predictions, I am left speculating on the relationship between the local, Senedd, and Westminster elections.
Tory revival makes sense, and I can see that Labour might get a continued mild-kicking for being in government at Westminster. However, plus-40 for PC and only plus-20 for LibDem/Independent combined implies both that the Lib Dems are already almost at maximum strength in Wales, if not pending a decline in support, whereas PC are becoming the true alternative to Labour on the left. That doesn’t bode well for Clegg’s ridiculous target of doubling LD parliamentary seats in Wales. Is that a fair interpretation?
Also, the impact of the new coalition in the Senedd seems not to be having too much of an effect. Would it be fair to sumise that the Labour/PC coalition is benignly popular, and is going to have a slight net lift on those parties’ figures (reducing the Labour punishment to under 100, and lifting PC)? Or would it be truer to say that Labour are familiar rulers, and so get tarred with the failures, whilst PC are getting a boost from the ‘first time in power and not absolutely awful’ phenomenon?
For what it’s worth, I think the work done by Labour AM for Rhondda, Leighton Andrews, over the Burberry factory etc will stem any further losses in RCT, and am coming around to Mark Senior’s view that getting the extra 5 Councillors in Cardiff might be difficult for the Lib Dems. Maybe one more in Cathays, one in Llandaff and Llandaff North, and the two Independents in Rhiwbina?
OT - When are we expecting a new mayoral poll?
24. Look, no one is forcing either Clegg or Cameron out anytime soon. Both their parties will probably enjoy net gains in the local elections (though the Conservatives probably more than the LDs) and both parties will increase their vote shares in Crewe.
Clegg has his flaws but there I don’t think any Liberal Democrats want him out. He is a good communicator when you can get him on to policy, and the party seems much more confident about the next election than it was last October.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7353945.stm
Clegg joins in with Cameron’s attack again - are the LDs lovebombing the Cons now ?
Ted Kennedy eulogising Gordon Brown….
@16 Martin Day is wrong, Dunfermline was under Ming’s temporary leadership, so get your facts straight before you go on the attack, or better yet, don’t attack what you can’t beat!
Lib Dems have more MP’s than in 2005, Labour and the Tories both have at least two less…carelessness!
36. What has Leighton Andrews been up to? Once he was a hard-line Liberal thinker and writer; now he’s turned Labour in old age and I’ve heard him mooted as a possible successor to Rhodri Morgan. What do those of you with an eye on Welsh politics think of him?
39. I think this is why Clegg was thought of as a good bet for LD leader - He looks like Cameron.
The above is in reference to the Tory MP’s being lost rather than the Labour ones of course :-\
36 What little evidence there is shows that PC are suffering since joining Labour in coalition . I expect them to suffer in these locals again we shall see in 2 weeks time if i am correct or not .
41. Yes you are right, sorry i thought it was under Kennedy but then again if the LD’s can win under a leader and still ditch him when the going is not so good. What will they do to Clegg if he fails in the local elections and fails in the By-election. He will be toast, surely not. He has not had the best of times and he is not in such a position of patronedge as the PM, who people are plotting over on the Labour benches!
42 I’m just relieved not to have to read those boring columns in LDN about the fortunes of Gillingham.
43 I don’t like to feed your fantasies, but Clegg was saddled with the label Future Lib Dem Leader (not to mention Housewives Favourite) years before Cameron emerged.
36. Rhiwbina is very small ‘c’ conservative. I remember someone saying to me once that it is 50% pensioners. I’d be very surprised if they voted anything but Conservative. Weren’t the two independents elected as Tories?
44. What a defection and deselection - that quentin Davies must feel a real tool!
47. What like William Hague and i think Neil Kinnock (Not housewives favorites Kinnock & Hague though!
)
47. Cameron like Osborne were seen as high fliers along time ago!
Brown giving quite a good speech in Boston. Relaxed, jokey, going down very well..
51. You not what i mean before cocaine jokes let rip!
52. Do you think he might be more comfortable playing away from home? Might it feel like a bit of the pressure is off?
53. He’s back in Lincolnshire already ?
42 - I would put money on him replacing Rhodri. He is only a Deputy Minister at the moment (Regeneration), but even those more senior are forced to admit he is talented enough to leap-frog even the ‘big hitters’ like Jane Davidson, Jane Hutt, or Andrew Davies. Not the most-liked in the Assembly, even on his own side, and detested by the Nationalists (PC), and he is not scared of controversy, but a very good campaigner, and held in pretty high regard by those who work with him.
54. It certainly looks that way!
52. I don’t believe you Brown is dreadful on telly and his speechs are not so good. He actually comes across better in situations like the UN where he is presenting his argument to a room of people in a diplomatic communique. Brown is still crap and his position in that poll on Britains least talented people is a testement to that.
13 - Martin Day -
Don’t expect Nick Palmer to vote against the abolition of the 10% band.
He is on record as thinking that it’s simply not correct that the changes penalise low earners and, anyway, when 2008 comes round many people will be pleased to find they really are paying less.
48 - Ah, “Condependents” (thanks for that neologism, Sean!) - makes sense, my grandparents live there and are Tories, as are most of their neighbours.
In that case, I think Mark Senior might have a point, and the Lib Dems might fail to make that breakthrough in Cardiff. The other person I’d be keen to consult is Punter, as he is always very well-briefed on South-East Wales.
Rod re 403 on the prior thread of Cheshire being the most Tory county in the North West
It is, but not as much as you’d think. Obviously Macclesfield, Tatton, Congleton, Eddisbury etc are in large part stereotypical Cheshire set and very Tory, but then you have Widnes/Runcorn (Halton) and the Warrington seats, Ellesmere Port and Northwich (Weaver Vale) that are safely Labour, Chester being a swing seat.
Last time Cheshire (incl Warrington and Widnes) was 37% Tory, only just above Lancashire which was 35% Tory.
59. If you are on tax credits it will be offset but many people are not and i think women in the early 60’s fall in this gap as well.
I understand his position - maybe he will hold the gun to Brown’s head on something he feels more passionate about?
61 And looking again, if you count Cumbria as the North West (despite it not really being Granadaland) the Tories got 38% of the vote there across the 6 seats last time.
31.Lennon, don’t know it this is the reason, but I loved this post on ConHom from an SNP activist a few months back on reasons for voting Libdem in one Scottish Constituency.
“Well,at least I agree with you about the LibDems.
They have held Argyll (until the last Scottish election) on the most incredible coalition of votes.
We found Labour supporters voting LibDem to keep the Tories out and Tories voting LibDem to keep Labour out and Tories and Labour supporters voting LibDem to keep the SNP out and none of them actually voting LibDem to put the LibDems in.
I did a stint of phone canvassing an election or two ago and had phoned over 500 numbers before I got a voter who professed to be LibDem supporter and THEY WON THE SEAT.
Now that the SNP has snatched the seat back I suspect it will revert to being again an SNP/Tory marginal (if the Tories get their act together, that is).”
Posted by: David McEwan Hill
56. Surely Jane Hutt has no chance? IMO aside from Rhodri, no-one stands out. If he did a u-turn on retirement, I doubt there would be many complaints.
64
and with that I’m off to the pub… have a good w/end
59. Besides, I should think that the lady who threatenend rebellion got told she was handing no. 10 to the tories……..she would be a traitort……etc - etc.
So i don’t expect Nick to vote against it!
Still politically it is bad politics for a *master strategist* like Brown to implement something years ago and then take it away. It is one of those things people will notice even if they do get tax credits unless they get tax credits through there employer - you use to be able to get them paid that way. If they are paid into peoples accounts it will feel like a tax rise even if they are getting the money offset elsewhere as there pay slip will dip!
Sorry for repeating myself - do we know when we’ll get another mayoral poll?
14 Rod Crosby
“The long-term trend in Wales has been in the Tories’ favour, completely the opposite to Scotland. About a 6.5% swing to the Tories since 1955…”
”
17 Gin
“Crikey, thats quite amazing. I would have thought, long term, the Conservatives would be doing at least as bad in Wales as they are in Scotland.”
Crikey, that’s 0.1226415 per cent per year, which I guess means they’ll become a force in Wales in…eh…eh… oh bugg*r it, I’ll be dead by then and so will the grandkids as well.
Malcolm
68 Would expect one next week from the Standard and then a rush just before election day - Ipsos-Mori, ICM & You Gov, but thats only on past performance.
65 Oh, I don’t think she does, but seniority in such a small pond means she has to be at least considered. Jane Davidson would be ok, but her political career is on the wane. That’s why I think LA has such a good shot - a strong candidate in a pretty weak selection pool.
I have met Leighton Andrews several times, as I know some of his family quite well, and think he would be an impressive First Minister, although I think he would have aguably made a better Parliamentarian at Westminster. He keeps a small regular blog too (bi-lingual, as he’s learnt Welsh to do the job).
http://www.leightonandrews.com/
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106630/Gallulp-Daily-Clinton-Moves-Within-Points-Obama.aspx
New Downs Center/SUSA Primary Poll for Indiana :
Clinton 45% .. Obama 50%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_downs_centersurveyusa_ind.php
Politics seems to be majorly reminisent of the early and mid 90’s:
Gordon Brown = or is less than John Major
David Cameron = Tony Blair
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock
69. Never underestimate the power of compound interest…
Labour still clearly dominate in Wales, and probably always will, but that dominance is not nearly as great as it was 50 years ago..
So the Tories have reason to be a lttle hopeful in the principality, and it’s worth their while putting in some effort there, although as we discussed on the regional swing thread, the number of seats likely to change hands remains small.
I wonder how Nick Clegg feels about being positively contrasted with Neil Kinnock, lets not forget Kinnock was leader of the opposition for 9 years……………. He must have been one of the longest serving opposition leaders there has ever been - he failed to become PM. That will be another healthy feature he has in common - maybe Clegg thought he would not gwet very far in the Tory party and so joined the LD’s so he could be leader?
76. Maybe i should join the LD’s and i can then be leader?
77. I can have a bust up with the LD’s militant tendency - mark Senior!
BBC reporting that Brown is “angry” that all the furore about the 10p rate is being got up by the press. I wouldn’t want to be a secretary at the British Embassy in Washington if that’s the case. Is the man deluded? Cracking up?
Also it mentions another 3 PPSs who have expressed concern today.
re 13 and 59 I did offer a tenner bet that he wouldn’t vote against the other day and nobody took me up on the offer.
With regard to Plaid, they will almost certainly increase their number of seats, however the challenge of the Llais Gwynedd party in their traditional stronghold of Gwynedd will problems secure enough seats for Plaid to lose control. In saying that, PC will almost certainly make gains in Carmarthenshire and the Valleys.
A foul smell which hung over parts of southern England today has been blamed on winds bringing pungent fumes from across the Channel, weather experts said.
Dozens of calls about the manure-like smell have been reported in London, Kent, Hertfordshire, Berkshire, East Anglia and as far west as Devon.
The Met Office said the smell is believed to have been caused by a combination of agricultural and industrial pollution carried on the wind from Northern Europe.
Sarah Holland, a forecaster for the Met Office, told the BBC: “Over the last few days, fresh winds have been blowing eastwards.
“The origins of the smell come from Europe and have brought in pollution
And here I was thinking it was from 10 Downing Street
79.Five PPS’s openly criticising Brown’s removal of the 10p in 24 hours, with the first threatening to resign and then changing her mind. This is beginning to look like quite a serious rebellion, has a whiff of a planned operation to try and get the Brown/Darling to back down before the vote on it?
26. ChrisD. That’s a tough question, since there are only a handful of English constituencies adjoining the respective borders and they are all basically Tory seats. I think the Welsh border is a bit more invisible than the Scottish one, and parts of Wales are definitely becoming more English.
[82] No, NN, it’s the smell of corruption from Brussels…
74
I think that’s a little unfair to Mr Clegg.
Martin Day is a naughty boy! OT why is everyone so confident about the LD is cardiff. We have ben in “control” there for 4 years and by all accounts have done a good job of it. never met Rodney but hear good things. But no anti incumbancy swing?
75 When calculating long term trends, the starting point is crucial. In the 1950s the Conservatives were nearly on equal terms with Labour in Scotland, whereas in Wales they only won 5-6 seats in Westminster elections. If you take that as your starting point then you could argue that the “long term trend” for the Conservatives in Wales is up. However, if instead you start from 1979, the Conservative vote in General Elections in Wales is as follows:
1979 32.3%
1983 31.0%
1987 29.5%
1992 28.6%
1997 19.6%
2001 21.0%
2005 21.4%
Over 26 years, that doesn’t look like a rising long-term trend to me.
It is also true that the trend that RodCrosby refers to is the swing between Labour and the Conservatives. In the GEs from 1951 to 1959s the Conservatives achieved 27.6%, 26.7% and 29.6%, far higher levels of support than in the last three GEs since 1997. There is only a rising swing because of the fall in Labour’s support from 60.5%, 57.6% and 56.4% achieved in the 1950s to their 42.7% in 2005 - i.e. a swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems rather than to the Conservatives.
Looking at the coming local elections, however, I would expect to see Conservative gains, if only because of the fact that they have managed to find far more candidates this time than in 2004 - 516 compared with only 349 last time. Sean draws particular attention to Pembrokeshire. Even if as few as one in eight of these extra candidates were to win, that would be worth twenty gains for the Conservatives.
52
Gordo’s speech, who cares if its relaxed and going down well(your words) . noone is listening, they are thinking about their house prices dropping , being shafted on tax,lies about inflation at 2pc and worries about the future. Gordo love bombing the Yanks is a total irrelevance IMHO
83 - they can’t back down, they haven’t got the money.
88. All true, but that is why I controlled for the overall balance of the UK vote. Under FPTP, swing is what mostly matters.
Labour staged a revival in Wales under Kinnock 1987-92, but the downward trend has resumed. The Scottish Tories had a bit of a revival under Major 1992-97, but Labour’s upward trend has resumed.
They are only summary statistics, and admittedly conceal a lot going on underneath, but still instructive, I think…
The likes of Curtice, King and Crewe use similar stats to illustrate the point..
BTW can somebody explain why some in the media (eg. the Guardian) are referring to this as the proposed abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax? It’s already happened, hasn’t it?
The abolition of the 10p rate was definitely in my April pay packet.
92. I am sure the Granuiad got it wrong as well about National Insurance as well, the famous 1% rise, was in actual fact a 10% rise.
Channel 4 reporting it as “proposed” abolition, as well.
92 knowing the Grauniad its a typo
94 - Nah, calling it a 1% rise was fair enough. Technically they should have said “1p in the pound” but most know what they mean.
92.Labour tax revolt gathering pace
“MPs will debate the second reading of the Finance Bill on Monday.
But they will not get a chance to vote on the 10p tax issue until a week later, when ex-minister Frank Field plans to table an amendment calling for compensation for those affected, at the bill’s committee stage.”
98 - How is this “compensation” supposed to work without making the tax system even more complicated?
Just seen Labour’s Welsh PPB. A full-frontal assault on ‘Lousy Libs’ in Cardiff, Swansea and Wrexham. Not very subtle IMHO.
Re. 56 / 42. Leighton Andrews is regarded as able but extremely ambitious, and an effective constituency AM. He is rapidly making himself very unpopular in the civil service, however. Some who have looked at the maths of Labour’s leadership election wonder whether Andrews has enough backers among the AMs to make it to the starting gate - the threshold is quite high, meaning that we we’re likely to see three candidates at most. A Huw Lewis candidature could mean that both he and Andrews don’t make it; one or the other, though, could be strong candidates for those elements in the party sceptical about the coalition with Plaid, to take on the pro-devolution telegenic Carwyn Jones and/or the centrist apparatchik Andrew Davies.
97 but it *was* a 10% rise in national insurance contributions.
101 - oh you mean the rise for those on about 40k+?
91. Swing is crucial in two party politics, slightly less so in three party politics and less important again in the four party situation we have in Wales and Scotlant. However, I take your point and it is probably true that the main battle lines in Wales in the next are likely to be between Labour and Conservative, unlike the situation in Scotland.
99
Spot on, increasing the tax free allowance wont work as it would benefit everyone, people on different salaries below 18500 are affected differently, so I can’t think what FF is contemplating unless its just the principle. Whatever happens its not going to help Labour, that’s for sure. If Gordo backs down, he will be seen as weak, if he doesn’t, he will be seen as not caring. Catch 22..
89 Hilda Fan
There might even be those who don’t give a flying fcuk whether you care or not, might there? Think that’s possible? Maybe?
Malcolm
101/102 - forget that, i’m not up with the changes
105 - Well that’s sort of obvious isn’t it? But Brown is a bit more of a significant figure for people not to care about.
105
What charming terminology. and there is no need to misrepresent my tag either, that’s just childish. I am entitled to my view just as much as you are, you have one vote, so do I , that’s democracy. If you have a point to make, make it, but politely.
106.Alex IIRC the NI increase effects those earning about £34,000?? Its had very little coverage, and I suspect that for many the first they will know about is when they see it in their pay packet.
Its all been very shabby and dishonest, Gordon Brown using implementing direct taxation by stealth now.
109.ignore *using*
109 - Oh i see
That’s not a 10% increase, it’s a 10% increase on earnings between 34k and 40k. There’s a narrow group who lose out on that one when the reduction on the basic rate is taken into account.
It is quite instructive though, the way that Gordon Brown is finding new ways to make money for the Govt defended because they are “simplifying measures for the tax system”, when he was the one who created most of the disparities that now need simplifying in the first place!
i see Hackney Council now have muslim men only sessions at thier swimming pools. Quite why they need this is anybody’s guess but I guess some precious berks who call themselves muslims can just say ‘because we are muslims’ and PC do gooders at the council just bend over and so ‘ok’
ever heard of saudi Arabia , Iran or the taliban ever demanding separate olympic swimming events from ‘infidels’? No I haven’t either but Hackney Council seem to know best
Here is a novel idea why cannot people leave their ‘faith ‘ at the swimming pool entrance and (horror of horror) swim with other ‘faiths’. I know its radical and all that but it may do wonders for integration and all that
ever heard of saudi Arabia , Iran or the taliban ever demanding separate olympic swimming events from ‘infidels’?
Well i don’t know about separate events, but they don’t generally enter
109. i was referring to the 10% ni increases a few years ago..
116 - There was never a 10% rise in NI. There was a 1p in the pound rise (from 10% to 11% - so technically 10%) for the NHS
100 I agree with you, Meurig, this Welsh Labour PPB was completely over the top. “Rhyddfrydwyr Rhemp” was the Welsh language version of “Lousy Libs”. The voice was a hysterical rant, in an indignant monotone, far too fast for any of the points made to sink in. The only message that came across was “Here’s someone who’s angry about the four Lib Dem councils”. Even if that does help Labour in Cardiff, Swansea, Bridgend and Wrexham, which I doubt, it won’t do anything for persuade the other 72% of the people who don’t live in those authorities. An own goal, I think.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/page/item/b009zj0z.shtml?q=election+broadcast&start=1&scope=iplayersearch&version_pid=b009zj0q
118. Agreed, a terrible broadcast. It looks like a joint production by Martin Day, Sean T and Ave It.
117. technically, but not really???? wow bet Brown wished he could still spin as well as the good old days
120 - 1p in the £ is 1%. Hence a 1p in the pound increase is a 1% increase. It just depends how you want to look at it. You were the one arguing that the Guardian had “got it wrong”. Which they hadn’t.
BERFAIR: MY MONEY ON BERLUSCONI…
… is still frozen, event though Veltroni conceded victory: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/14/witaly514.xml
What are they waiting for?
I’m political-betting only since December; and in the U.S. primaries, my money was always unfrozen in the hours following the opponents’ concession to a winner.
Can anyone tell me when Betfair will unfroze our Berlusconi money?
121 (con) And of course i’m sure that you’ll be happy to congratulate Gordon on his 9% cut in income tax.
118/9. Glad I wasn’t alone in thinking that broadcast was very odd indeed. It really sounded like a boring over-opinionated chap who could clear a pub in five minutes.
119 - oh dear they don’t like the LD.
Tonight’s SNP Conference broadcast - no negative attacks at all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/page/item/b00b2cl9.shtml?q=snp+&start=1&scope=iplayersearch&go=Find+Programmes&version_pid=b00b2ck4
Evening, Gents. I’ve been away for most of the week. I’ve noticed my name mentioned a couple of times in previous threads, so I thought I should retort.
As to whether the BNP are Left-Wing or Right Wing - the honest answer is I don’t know. And in today’s modern politics I don’t think it’s relevant.
In some parts of the country, members & supporters see us as the old Labour Party before the Marxists/Commies took over. Their political heroes includes the likes of Robert Blatchford and his “Britain for the British”.
Now that New Labour has abandoned it’s traditional policies and the low-paid working class, many feel this is who we should naturally represent with our policies of public ownership of key industries, government intervention in the economy, increased rights for workers , and a belief in the welfare state and publicly funded healthcare and education.
Others, however, believe we are most like the Conservative Party before it was castrated by Political Correctness.
Nick Griffin has always said the Labour Party will be around forever and it’s the Conservative Party who will ultimately crumble before the BNP can form a Government.
Talking of left or right, Barnsley BNP is what I’d definitely call Old Labour. Here’s our Leader speaking this week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvMD5QsGNrY
122 The Betfair market is still open and in fact you can still at times bet om Berlusconi to win albeit at 1.01 . I have no idea what the reasons for this are
119 So its going to be negative advertising in Wales - will it work though?
121 If you are paying 10% more than you were before its a 10% increase whether its 0.5% on 5% or 5% on 50% - the percentage more that is being paid (increase) is 10%. 1% more in a pound could be a 100% increase if it was 1% standard NI before - percentage increase is based on the sum before the increase not its notional proportion of another sum.
124 - You mean like Malcolm at 105
(Except he could do it in three)
127
— WHY OUR BERLUSCONI IS STILL FROZEN ON BETFAIR?
I have no idea either; I will write to them then.
I hope I can access to this money ASAP to put it all on ‘Clinton wins Pennsylvania’ (some suckers are offering 1.21 !!!).
Otherwise, I’ll have to upload more money and be charged 1.5% of credit card fee!
129 Absolutely, I try to skip over must stuff he posts because you know it will just be a pompuos bullyboy diatribe about how sucessful he has been at ridding the site of “creatures”. Of course the irony is he is the most tedious “creature” on here
130 You can free your money to use elsewhere on Betfair by laying Berlusconi at 1.01 . Chaper than paying 1.5% cc fee
The Welsh election broadcast is a bit mind-boggling to be honest. Just some strange chap going on and on and on and on and on and on… in such a frantic voice I could hardly even work out what he was saying before he went onto the next thing!
And why did a chocolate teapot suddenly appear?
Bizarre advert. Dave the Chameleon and its ilk obviously were the start of a dire trend for Labour PEBs.
The Slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ edges down below 10% :
http://www.slate.com/id/2189480/
132
Thanks a lot.
I’ll try it in 25 min.
134
Yet Intrade have her at 14% : https://www.intrade.com/
I’m really looking forward her value the day after her PA win, the 23 april
133. Just think, from Hugh Hudson in 87 to Anthony Minghella in 2005, Labour had a decent shot at PEBs. Now they haven’t got a clue what to say and just end up being relentlessly negative - like Hague’s PEBs in 2001.
I liked the Plaid broadcast though, it reminded me of some of the quirkier American spots of the 60s and 70s.
132 — to Mark Senior
I’m sorry, I think I don’t understand:
if I “lay Berlusconi at 1.01″ — I actually bet against him B. to win. That i understand; I pay something in order to free some of the money I made on his victory.
But HOW, technically, does it free my money?
In those matters, I am a little slow to understand…
Furthermore, some people are actually laying B at 1.02 and 1.03…
82 Norman
Now there’s me thinking it was your Normal smell, Norman.
Malcolm
That’s quite possibly the worst PEB ever.
Another Labour PPS in trouble
http://www.expressandstar.com/2008/04/18/shock-as-mp-is-arrested/
136. Surely the value is now before any boost in Hilary’s position?
Maybe you are working to a different strategy but I’m guessing Hilary needs that 10%+ win to make it interesting for some punters.
108 Hilda
So politeness is to be the new norm here. Perhaps you will ask your Tory Party [Conservative faction] friends to be polite about the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Liberal Democrats. Or perhaps not.
Malcolm
138 I was assuming you are green on Berlo but red on the others in which cas you can turn yourself all green . Of course if you are all green already it will not work .
129 O
Go home and play with your toys little boy, I’m sure you’d enjoy playing with Pretty Boy Dave.
Malcolm
141 - Oh dear.
142
I think/hope her value will rise around 2,8$-3,2$ following a 8-9 points victory in the PA primary.
I really do think she will win by quite a margin — if not double-digit.
I will then sell sell sell!
WHO CAN STOP THE DEMOCRATIC RACE?
——
“This is why the “Democratic Party” cannot stop this nomination race. There is no party entity with the power to say, “OK, you two. Enough is enough.” In keeping with the “candidate control” model of electoral politics, the only two who can stop it are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. That’s the modern party system for you. 20th century reformers thought the parties were meddling institutions that corrupted the political process. So, they stripped them of their power. Accordingly, the Democrats are at the mercy of their candidates.
Footnote: if you listen to Dean’s interview, he says that some superdelegates have already “voted,” and that he wants the rest to “vote” soon. This is not how the superdelegate system works. Dean knows that, and I think what he is trying to do is spin things a little bit.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/04/delegates_to_dean_make_us_1.html
It appears that the PPS in question went to finishing school, Ted (43) - something like the Bullingdon Club, perhaps - so such behaviour is entirely understandable.
145 - Ooooh, you’re so masterful.
143
Listen Malcolm, Your political utopia is not the same as mine.(Yes I have read your previous posts) I represent my view…. noone else’s. You cannot try and represent anyone else view as mine, You are just trolling. I shall ignore any future comments/insults. Go annoy someone else.
143 Gordon Brown is the most incompetent, arrogant spineless twonk this country has ever had as Prime Minister. There is a reason that he has had the fastest fall in ratings of any Prime Minister and that is because he is a joke and the people are well aware of that.
Cleggs heart is largely in the right place with the obvious massive exception of his ridiculous europhilia, but I hardly think anyone can claim he has been a good leader of the Lib Dems so far.
145 - Surely whatever else he qualifies as, it’s pushing it a bit to refer to JohnO as “little boy”…
151 - Just take pity on such sadness.
137. I’m glad you liked Plaid’s. The reaction to it has been a little mixed - certainly some positive comment but some negative too.
Back on to the local elections, the role of ‘independents’ in rural Wales is interesting, and Sean is 100% right to say that they’re not all Condependents. I know of at least 2 Plaidependents in Powys, for instance.
They really are extremely hard to shift (as I think the Tories will find in Pembrokeshire and Powys). Plaid’s advance in Ceredigion the expense of the indies in 2004 at was almost entirely due to targeting wards where councillors were retiring.
The reasons for this I think are the small wards (many have electorates under 1500, so it really is possible for the councillor to know a lot of the voters personally) and the fact that all parties find it difficult to get local people to stand against sitting councillors who are sometimes friends or neighbours. So they end up being opposed by maybe 1 party candidate, and tactical votes naturally coalesce around the ‘Independent’. There are enough generic anti-Tory votes in somewhere Pembrokeshire to make life very difficult for the party candidate. Independents who are supporters of parties often don’t want to adopt party colours for fear of losing the advantage of this tactical vote.
It also bugs me that ‘independent groups’ usually adopt a party line and whip in the council chamber, but at election time trot out the old line of ‘judging each issue on its merits regardless of party politics’ but I won’t go on about that tonight!
Did anyone see HIGNFY? Even Bob Marshall-Andrews couldn’t avoid being a little bit dismissive about the Great Leader (and i think unusually he actually wanted to be loyal
)
153 - Alex, I’m genuinely flattered
SELF-CONGRATULATIONS…
—–
Yesterday, a guy on this site was making fun of me predicting the guy who blew a BOMB in Bristol was a Muslim.
“How do you know he is not a Methodist” he asked.
– Wanna bet? — I reply?
He did’nt.
Turns he did well not to bet:
“Muslim convert, 19, held under Terror Act as police explode ‘bomb factory’”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=560417&in_page_id=1770
Too bad did not understand Islam is supposed to be a “religion of peace”…