So Silvio is back….
April 20th, 2008
Andrea examines the results as Italy moves from Prodi II to Berlusconi III
So Silvio is back. Last week-end’s Italian elections saw Berlusconi’s coalition winning by a convincing margin: 9.3% for the Senate and 9.2% for the Chamber of Deputies. The final result is at the high end of figures showed by polls 2 weeks ago. It also guarantees a comfortable majority for Berlusconi at the Senate. During the pre-election discussions, there was some debate on whether he would get a working majority, or if the electoral system used for the Senate would result in another slim majority.
The result shows that a comfortable working majority has been reached. Berlusconi won all key swing regions: Liguria (with a 1% margin), Abruzzo (2.6% majority), Sardinia (by 2.3%), Calabria (a comfortable 8% lead) and Lazio (a 2.8% majority). Campania was also “gained” by Berlusconi compared to 2006 but the result there was never really in doubt after the rubbish crisis (the lead proved to be a commanding 17.2%).
Veltroni won only in the so called “red belt” regions (Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Umbria and Marche) and in Molise (where victory is pretty pointless anyway as there are just 2 seats to be assigned, one for each coalition) and Basilicata (which has tended to vote centre-left in recent years). In Veltroni’s coalitions, Di Pietro list also had a good showing: 4.4% overall, almost doubling its 2006 performance (2.3%).
Within the Berlusconi coalition, there was a very strong showing from the Northern League. They polled 8.3% at national level (Camera dei Deputati). Looking at the Senate regional figures, they polled 12.3% in Piemonte, 20.7% in Lombardia, 26.1% in Veneto, and 13% in Friuli-Venezia-Giulia.
Looking at other parties’ results, Casini’s UDC (the remnants of the once dominant Christian Democrats) more or less held up its vote. They polled 5.6% (Camera) compared to 6.8% in 2006. A small decline, but they survived. However at the Senate level they passed the 8% regional threshold only in Sicily.
The same certainly can’t be said for the Rainbow Left, who completely collapsed. In 2006 for the Camera, the 3 parties composing it polled 10.2%: last week they were reduced to 3.1% and thus failed to elect a single MP. Their wipe out was not predicted by opinion polls which, 2 weeks ago, were giving them around 6-7%. Some of their 2006 voters went to fringe hard left parties (Critical Left and Communist Party of Workers polled 1.1%), some abstained and a large part transferred as a sort of “useful vote” to Veltroni.
If some left wing voters tactically voted for Veltroni to try and keep Berlusconi out, considering the defeat margin is 9%, it may mean that Veltroni had trouble into eating the “middle ground” vote. It would be interesting to analyze it through some polls in the coming days (if you can trust Italian opinion polls!).
So what’s next? Berlusconi has a working majority and should finish this Parliamentary term (but we’re in Italy and you never know…). The coalition should be more compact (no UDC this time) and so there should be fewer excuses for not making the reforms always called for but not always done. On the other side of the political spectrum, Veltroni’s PD should try and stabilize as the only centre-left alternative. The reduction of parties elected to Parliament can be used as an attempt to go towards a less complex and “slimmer” political scene. Will it be successful or will the colourful variegated Italian political life emerge again?
Andrea is a regular contributor to pb.com and is widely regarded as one of the site’s most knowledgable posters.
Note from Double Carpet: Andrea, Molto Grazie for the first guest article on the new Sunday evening international slot.
If you’d like to contribute an article on international politics, please contact me at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk - many thanks.
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Great article, Andrea.
Italy looks in bad shape to most commentators. Per capita GNI has been declining against EU averages, and governments haven’t taken the tough decisions (although the last did take a few, and was punished for it). What’s next?
And any idea why Basilicata is different? (Silvio si e’fermato a Eboli….)
I have a real fondness for Italy, the food, culture and so on are So much better than the UK! Just a shame they can’t sort out the politics.
I have more loathing for Berlusconi than anyone else in European politics. He is a terrible combination of Blair, Murdoch and Chirac all wrapped into one. The sooner Italy gets rid of him the better.
I find it similar to the US re-electing the Bush administration in 2004. How can the country vote for Berlusconi knowing what a crook he is?
A good read Andrea. Thank you for widening our narrow world.
Is there any chance of Italian political parties coalescing so that government gets a bit more stable? I really mean changing the system, or at least lots of parties merging. That might be a silver lining to take out of my second most hated more-or-less-democratic leader winning.
O/T There’s a general election in new Zealand this year. Anyone got any opinions?
5. Sorry, it was explained the other day that there are 4% and 8% thresholds for election, which should be a big improvement. With two houses, that’ll still be problematic; with one, Italian politics would, long-term, finally start working.
Is it just two parties in the Berlusconi coalition this time then, his own (what’s it called?) and the Northern League?
“Andrea examines the results as Italy moves from Prodi II to Berlusconi III”
I think it’s officially Berluscono IV. Berlusconi III is theoretically the last part of the 2001-2006 term when he resigned and immediately formed a new government. I know, we’re complicated!
5. There has been a general merge for this election with PD (DS+Margherita) and PdL (Forza Italia+AN) creation.
It would be interesting to see them stabilizing and splitting up again in the future.
A curioisity…here’s how Italians living in UK voted:
Camera:
PdL 39.6%
PD 35.6%
Di Pietro list 10.4%
Rainbow Left 4.8%
UDC 2.9%
Senate:
PdL 40.05%
PD 35.9%
Di Pietro 9.8%
Rainbow Left 4.8%
UDC 3.1%
Berlusconi was dead and buried after a close election put the opposition in power. After things went tits up he’s back…
Good news for Labour?
Hooray for Silvio. Better than the awful technocratic eurobore Prodi.
But what Italy really needs is a Mussolini, minus the Fascism and brutishness - i.e. Margaret Thatcher.
9. No, I think British politics is more likely to follow the Canadian pattern: a fairly stable Tory minority government, with Labour (like the Canadian Liberals) struggling to get its act together because it became so pragmatic when in power.
9 Jonathon , yes but it would be sh*it for UK PLC, it would mean we were in for a re-run of 70-74.
With Cameron the new Heath and our economy and politics having similarities to Italy.
10. How about Alessandra? http://youtube.com/watch?v=ELwpc-OQUP4
Good stuff Andrea - personally I like the Italian set up - I hope you don’t get homogenised like the rest of Europe.
9. no
This is very funny - watch it all
http://www.barelypolitical.com/barely-political-uncovered/episode/BOSNIA_20080325
I wanna know who Berlusconi’s plastic surgeon is. He looks *good* for a man of his age.
Thanks Andrea for the article.
On a purely non party political basis I’m afraid Silvio strikes me as something of a combination of the world’s greatest snake oil salesman a greasy political lothario …. certainly not a gentleman !!
18. “I’m afraid Silvio strikes me as something of a combination of the world’s greatest snake oil salesman ”
JR from Dallas?!
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 45% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106609/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-Slight-47-45-Advantage.aspx
Great article Andrea - thanks.
Is Lega Nord still led by Umberto Bossi? I lived in Verona in the early 90’s and remember stumbling into a Lega election rally in the packed main Piazza one evening. My Italian wasn’t great, but good enough to understand I wasn’t entirely comfortable with all of his populist right-wing demagoguery!
Nevertheless, he was an engaging and inspiring (to those around me) orator.
What imnpressed me was the level of engagement in the Italian electoral process - something that was sadly lacking even then in this country.
19 Andrea. Well, as a Texan, he’d be boasting of being rather large in the trouser snake department !!
Andrea- nice piece. And the write up ain’t bad (just kidding)
I posted a couple of times that I thought that the opinion polls were underestimating Silvio’s real leads. They did 2 years ago, and the swine nearly made it then. There must be some shy Berlusca’s out there. Worth remembering for the Italian backers for the next election.
From the previous thread- Robin Wiggs thank you for your kind comments.
21- Robin Wiggs- as I have just noticed you, thanks for your comments.
24 - You’re welcome, Tyson.
24- Robin- meaning- just noticed you above now posting (tonight), I actually have read your posts for a long time
Good article Andrea.
16 Yes very funny, good spot.
16- excellent. Even seeing this again, just what was the old girl thinking?
The headline made me laugh, but the more I think upon it, good on him for speaking out:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7357008.stm
30, it’s pretty unexpected, that’s for certain.
Actually, there’s an interesting issue with bulimia regarding getting rid of the food which is usually through vomiting or use of laxatives. However, it can also be done through excessive exercise, which poses some questions because excessive exercise is easier to spot if women do it, but if you told a man who eats a lot and exercises loads he’s got an eating disorder I think he’d be less than convinced.
And kudos to Prescott for coming out with it. Can’t've been easy.
21. “Is Lega Nord still led by Umberto Bossi? ”
yes.
Lega polled 26.05% in Verona. They outpolled PdL. Combined they took 51% of the vote. Veltroni got 34% in Verona.
Some figures from various big cities:
Milan
Silvio 49.2%
Walter 38.5%
Venice
Walter 44.2%
Silvio 40.5%
Turin
Walter 46.1%
Silvio 38.1%
Genova
Walter 48.9%
Silvio 37.3%
Florence
Walter 53.6%
Silvio 30.7%
Rome
Walter 45.8%
Silvio 39,6%
Naples
Silvio 46.7%
Walter 40.5%
Palermo
Silvio 51.5%
Walter 31.7%
Andrea - thanks again and apologies for the Berlusconi numbering - I was counting 2001-6 as “II” as there was no PM in between, if that makes sense. Is Bossi expected to get a major cabinet post & if so which one?
Off Centre - NZ - I’m hoping that Alexander Drake will be doing a guest piece on the election. My own feeling is that it will be the reverse of Australia, with Labor losing power. There’s very little money on the Betfair market so far but I think the Nationals, with steady and comfortable poll leads, are value at about 1.34.
21. “What imnpressed me was the level of engagement in the Italian electoral process - something that was sadly lacking even then in this country.”
I think that the big rally in city squares with thousands of people attending are much more common here than in UK.
On other hand, we don’t have the canvassing thing.
30 - Well it makes a welcome (if rather unsettling) change from Jacqui Smith popping up with another terror warning to distract us from the bad headlines about Brown.
I’m surprised to see him so far ahead in Naples. I’d have thought the vote there would be more similar to the northern cities in England.
34. Double Carpet, there was today a meeting between Berlusconi and Lega. One of the main points was what will Lega get (they suggested a big request in the last few days)…it now seems that Formigoni (Lombardy region “governor”) will become Senate speaker and so he will leave Lambardy position and Lega will get the Lombardia presidence. After getting Lombardia, they won’t ask for the Home Office position as they seemed to want.
35 - Is voting compulsory? That would do away with the need for canvassing as differntial turnout would not be a factor.
37. Frank Booth, take in consideration that Naples and neighbouring areas were full of rubbish all over the streets because of the rubbish crisis last month.
A PD Senator said “who the hell are those 35% who voted PD in Naples? It’s a miracle! To go to the polling stations, you needed a shovel..but not for the snow, but for the rubbish”
39. Surely it would just change the purpose of canvassing? Instead of GOTV canvassers could actually try to persuade voters. That would be a novel idea.
as for differences in demography and voting patterns between Italy and UK, what would an area like Chianti vote if it had been in UK?
OT: Gallup World Poll, this should generate discussion.
Two main conclusions:
(1) The main driver of just about everyone is the search for a decent job.
(2) The biggest contributor to a country’s economic success is attracting talent.
http://gmj.gallup.com/content/101680/Global-Migration-Patterns-Job-Creation.aspx#1
This should be a warning to the USA, who have restricted their H1B visas to a ridiculously low number (10,000 I think).
‘political lothario’…Jack W would know!
I think its very refreshing of old Berloi to be so honest about going under the knife.
He is clearly explaining to a reporter in this very photo the latest bit of old grislte he has had removed,
42. If it’s rural it would be heavily Conservative in England anyway barring the odd town eg Exeter. Scotland though is different
Naples smells
I enjoy Silvio’s comments - but I don’t see him actually tackling any of Italy’s problems. Never mind Andrea I’m sure the lefties will be back within a couple of years!
What they really need in Italy is control over their own economy; they coud even have their own monetary policy and undercut the horrible Euro by using a currency whose name harks back to a proud Roman heritage - yes it’s time for the hyperpyron to be reinstated in the Western part of the Empire.
45. yes, I would have thought that in England, it would have been a Con or LD area.
Take Greve in Chianti…here’s a picture of the nice village
http://www.comune.greve-in-chianti.fi.it/img/greve_1.jpg
it voted 56.9% for Veltroni and 26.9% for Berlusconi.
Is it likely the new alignments will survive changes in leadership? The PdL still seems to be an arrangement around Silvio (as in France the governing party seems to be a Sarkozy party) while the left seems more of a party with a leader.
There was talk pre-election of a reversal back towards the previous electoral arrangements - is that still likely?
49. “There was talk pre-election of a reversal back towards the previous electoral arrangements - is that still likely?”
I don’t think it’s a main target for Silvio.
However next year there should be a referendum on some parts of the election law. The result can trigger a process to modify it.
Hi Andrea - hope you are well - posts 37 and 40 answered in part my question which was the opposite of Franks - I would have expected Silvio to have been far more in front of Walter in Naples - is my assumption[based on nothing] that Naples is a “right wing” run city wrong?
Isn’t it the case that Italians have plumped heavily for the only course of action that will bring them a ’strong’ Government [ie. not factional/coalition] in uncertain times, regardless of whether they are particularly enthusiastic about that option?
@double carpet
correction…my comment at 38 is wrong. Bossi just said that Maroni (Lega) will get Interiour Ministry and Bossi himself will be Reforms minister
46
That may be true, but you can’t beat spaghetti napoletana - unless it’s spagetthi alla puttanesca, another dish from the region.
Silvio Berlusconi is 71. I thought I had heard a claim in report on BBC radio that the Italian political class had the oldest leaders and oldest MPs in Western Europe. Is this really the case?
48- being married to a florentine girl I am pleased with the firenze and toscana vote.
51. Hi Vino. Good to read you again.
Naples has a centre left mayor (Mrs Iervolino, best known for her voice). Before her, there were the Bassolino years (always centre-left).
Andrea, thanks very much for this article. Very interesting.
Double Carpet. Great idea to have these international political articles. Could I make a request? As you clearly have an interest and an understanding of international politics, could you try to guide us and your guest writers towards identifying any political betting value that derives from their knowledge and views?
O/T
Crumb of comfort fro Hillary backers!
April 20 (Bloomberg) — New York Senator Charles Schumer predicted Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will have a “significant” win in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary.
“My guess is she will win Pennsylvania by a significant margin,” Schumer, a Clinton supporter, said today on “Fox News Sunday.” He declined to predict the margin of victory.
Clinton is holding on to a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, according to an April 17-18 Newsmax/Zogby tracking survey that had her leading Illinois Senator Barack Obama 47 percent to 42 percent. Clinton is counting on a win in Pennsylvania to narrow Obama’s lead in delegates for the Democratic nomination.
Clinton trails Obama in the number of Democratic delegates, who will select the party nominee in August. An unofficial tally by the Associated Press shows Obama with 1,645 to Clinton’s 1,507. A candidate needs at least 2,025 to win.
what surprised we was the recent poll showing Italians were much more confident than most countries (especially Britain) that their Government would be able to cope with the economic downturn. Pretty optimistic surely!
Looking at this map with the past few Italian election results, looks as though Northern Italy is reliably right, with the central belt being left and the swing areas being in the South (except for Puglia which seems to go right). At first blush, doesn’t seem to be a class thing, as some of the more affluent areas seem to be very left and vice versa.
http://electionresources.org/it/maps/senate.php?election=2008
Mind, I have always thought Italian politics was a bit different after reading the Don Camillo books as a young boy
Andrea
Thank you for your insight, I know little about Italian politics save for the fact that no-one (for donkeys years) so far as I know has ever been able to command a working majority on their own. (I hope I am right). Its why I have always supported FPTP.
btw Andrea. Would it be fair to say the main blockage to radical Thatcher style economic reform under Berlusconi (even if he wanted to) would be the rather more statist types like Fini and the ex fascists. How powerful are they within the coalition? They’re still presumably rooted in the South
57 - Thanks Andrea - just googled Antonia Bassolina and Mrs Rosa Russo Jervolino - both seem to be competent interesting characters to say the least!Bassolina defeated Alessandra Mussolini perhaps thats why I assumed wrongly that Naples was “right wing”.
Andrea - what’s the Valle d’Aosta list?
63. tom fairfox, there was UDC too last time which can sometimes be quite statist (old DC roots)
65. Autonomie Liberte’ Democratie (the one elected at the Camera) is centre-left. The Valleé d’Aoste list (the one elected at the Senate) is an automistic centrist group.
64. Bassolino is now Campania governor. Mrs Iervolino has been Cabinet Minister both with DC and then in the 1996-2001 period.
Their appeal is now much down because of the rubbish crisis that they were unable to sort out.
oops, can’t spell my own name in the dark. Thanks Andrea. Fini’s come a long way since the 70s, hasn’t he? He doesn’t get much coverage here, but he’s struck me as one of the more interesting and impressive politicians, though whether positive or negative, I’m less sure
62. Most european countries produce governments that are the product of coalitions that are stable and have proven to be successful over the medium term. I am surprised that anyone is able to support FPTP when in excess of 70% of votes cast have no bearing on the final outcome. An electoral system should strive to be representative of national opinion - our fails to realise this basic requirement in spades.
62 - yes, good old FPTP. The system that gives you a working, nay commanding, majority when you actually received nothing of the sort from the electorate!
Re: the discussion about Royal Primogeniture earlier. Just noticed a quote from Vera Baird in the Sunday Times
“I have always thought that what we have to do with the Royal Family is integrate them as far as possible into the human race” (!)
How come Ministers of the Crown can get away with such appalling statements? Especially ones who then express an intention to legislate on their role?
Andrea, thank you so much for both fact and opinion.
3 Socrates, I totally agree with your post.
Having thanked Andrea and agreed with Socrates, you’ll all be delighted to know that that is all I have to say for tonight, but actually most of you won’t even be bothered enough to be pleased.
Sally, thanks for your kindness, my daughter’s husband just walked out on her and left her with three young children and three dogs. If I seem a trifle annoyed at Tories [any faction] it’s that he was a Tory [Hilda faction.] She’s a strong girl and will do OK.
Malcolm
71, because they’re cretinous animals who consider themselves far above the Royal Family, whereas their actual position is far beneath them.
72, sorry to hear about your family situation. I hope said walker-out accidentally stumbles into a Lib Dem Halloween party and is mistaken for a male stripper.
Very interesing article.
Berlusconi is a very interesting politician: Don’t understand why people who don’t live in Italy hate him because Italy is not known as a gun wielding power or for that matter an economic or diplomatic power. Whilst certainly there economy has been in trouble for a while, it is syptomatic of an overtaxed, immobile, socialist european state. With the added burden of the Euro and it’s constraints - that could have been the UK had we gone into the Euro.
Berlusconi i find amusing and i suppose he is a bit like Johnson, whilst on the subject of Johnson - i think he has raised his game looking at BBC 1 politics show. No ham fisted jokes and he landed some solid blows on Ken. I thought Paddick was quite good although Boris had the last laugh when Paddick said that ken was a tragedy and Boris was a comedy - Boris shot back “what does that make you then!
obviously a farce and on 9% projected vote i would tend to agree.
Italy could be on an historic turning point or just another lapse of the pendulim - an interesting one to watch.
On the business of international politics, what do people think of Putin’s supposed dalliance with a young gymnast turned parliamentarian? He has been hugely popular in his time as President, but could this bring him down? If he’s no longer the hero of the nation, can he manage to keep Medvedev on a tight leash?
Malcom,
I had the feeling you were a young pedantic liberalissime punk.
How wrong was I!
75: I think this is the best analysis i have seen so far
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/putin-to-propose-at-sushi-restaurant-20080418882/
75. Lucky old Putin - nice picture of the women in the papers today!
THE ITALY OF DAY SIGNALING TOWARD THE EUROPE OF TOMORROW?
1) the coming of Alliances of mainstream center-right party with far-right marginal party (like the Northern League) — in order to fight massive immigration from muslims and Eastern Europeans.
2) The necessity of owning or be backed by the owner of THE vast media empire of one’s nation.
THE ITALY OF DAY SIGNALING TOWARD THE EUROPE OF TOMORROW?
1) the coming of Alliances of mainstream center-right party with far-right marginal party (like the Northern League) — in order to fight massive immigration from muslims and Eastern Europeans.
2) The necessity of owning or be backed by the owner of THE vast media empire of one’s nation.
O/T I hope some PBers took up my midweek footy suggestion and backed Villa at 0.8/1 with Ladbrokes to beat B’ham City by the very comfortable margin of 5-1 - like I said too much class!
81 - I’m sure you could have got better odds than that!
Andrea - post 79/80 beat me but was immigration a big issue in your GE? When I was in Venice the locals at the Coop near the Railway Station almost beat up a family of Albanians who had been caught shop-lifting - most of the locals informed me without being asked their anti-immigration views!!!
82 Alex - the odds offered were simply on any Villa win, not on predicting the exact scoreline.
O/T Have just been listening to Salmond’s speech. He is surely the most talented politician in Britain at the moment. Salmond’s use of a shopping list of small reforms to build a record in government will I think be the model for any future Con-Lib coalition, especially if the Lib Dems are working towards consent for electoral reform.
Well PfP, if you’re careless with your use of the English language…
85. Also, lest that seem ungrateful, thanks Andrea for the article. Your contributions on Italy (and other political matters) continue to be invaluable.
83. Vino, yes, in the North (but I guess in the South too) there’s quite a lot of anti immigration feelings now. Immigration tied with security are main points for Lega.
85.Have just been listening to Salmond’s speech. He is surely the most talented politician in Britain at the moment.
I would not go that far - he has a fair wind behind him and he uses his weakness as his strength (That if the Labour/Tories/LD’s etc gang up and defeat him he will do an Adolf Hitler hissy fit about democracy being overturned etc.
I can think of Tory and Labour politicians who have a far higher standard plus game. For instance in the Tories alone i would say Cameron, Hague and Osborne rival him (Salmond). Salmond is only playing in Scotland and has the easiest platform (Nationalism) to play from.
83-88
From arguably the best newspaper of India:
“There has been a rising tide of anti-immigrant sentiment in Italy, especially towards people coming from Romania, Albania, Kosovo, and other parts of the Balkans, with attempts to repatriate Roma gypsies often described as “liars and thieves.”
In a long press conference, Mr. Berlusconi brushed off criticism that he would be putty in the hands of his key coalition partner Umberto Bossi of the Northern League who has been calling for the break-up of Italy into three distinct federal regions so that the wealthy north no longer has to subsidise the poor south. However, he did say he would “increase neighbourhood police forces who would place themselves between the people of Italy and the army of evil.””
Salmond is in a bit of a no-lose position at the moment, although obviously he has done excellently thus far from a weak position.
The real test will arrive if and when the Conservatives take power in Westminster. Will opposition allow Labour to recover strongly in Scotland, and will he overplay his hand in seeking confrontation with Westminster?
89. Plus he has Brown screwing up Labour nationally - which is another lucky gift.
It was interesting a few months ago i spoke to a SNP councillour at my last employer, over lunch we got talking about Salmond and the SNP councillour advised that there are allegations about Salmond being closer to one of his inner circle than would be politically convienent. So if there is any foundation in what this sober scotsman told me Salmond had better look over his shoulder because that sort of thing would burst his bubble.
70
FPTP is better than stagnation is it not….
81 PfP
Next week’s game at Goodison now becomes very critical for the European spot…
93. Note that you avoided my post @ 69 regarding participatory democracy. Stagnation may be desirable if it offers time to reflect and avoid Poll Tax and the war in Iraq, neither policy had the support of the electorate.
95. Or the abolishion of the 10p tax rate!
This might be of interest to a lot of you;
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11053170
I wonder where Pb.com comes in the rankings.
Andrea - so what happened to Alessandra Mussolini? Is the Northern League your equivalent of our BNP? Sorry if I appear to be going on about immigration but you Italians are similar to us Brits!!!
97. Added to that, how terrifying that the official BNP site is the most popular political website it lists.
Well, well!
Villa 5-1 against B’ham. Oh yes! Look out Everton!
Anyone prepared to give me 5/2 Villa qualifying for UEFA.
98. More so than you could ever imagine!
101 - Martin - ?
Sorry i meant 97 not 98!
Great article Andrea - will Burlesconi be making constitutional changes given his size of majority (I’m thinking of the transition from the French IVth Republic to the Vth - beef up the executive, slim the legislature, reduce reliance on coalition, less turnover of government)?
3 - They choose him because having a decent leader is a secondary condition to having stable leadership. If we saw a new government every year, we might sacrifice a quality of leadership for a little less tumult.
Out of interest, is anyone able to confirm that this is now the shortest G8 ever?
Brown is shorter than Blair, Bush shorter than Clinton, Fukuda shorter than Koizumi/Abe, Burlesconi shorter than Prodi, Merkel shorter than Schroeder, Sarkozy shorter than Chirac, Medvedev even shorter than Putin, and Stephen Harper is probably the tallest of the group (about the same height as Paul Martin, I think).
On aggregate, I think the G8 leaders have lost about 5 feet collectively on their predecessors - is their height linked to the stock markets perhaps? I think we should be told…
98
FAR-RIGHT PARTIES IN EUROPE (AND THEIR COMING ALLIANCES WITH CENTER-RIGHT MAINSTREAM PARTIES)
——
Yes, the Northern League is similar with :
– the British National Party
–Belgium’s Vlaamse Belang
– France’s Front National
– the Austrian Freedom Party
– the Party for Freedom in Netherlands
– the Danish People’s Party
– the Swedish Democrats
—
From a betting perspective, this is helpful to notice, for it give an edge to the Right.
Sarkozy won; Merkel won. In Europe, in the years to come, the Right will win more often than not.
As long as the Left don’t recogn the failure of multiculturalism and of unresttrained immigration — especially from islamic countries.
98. Alessandra Mussolini has been elected MP with SIlvio’s PdL
105
English is not my mother tongue.
And when I re-read myself, I think it sounds more dogmatic and prescriptive than I intent it to be.
My post 105 is only speculation. I don’t pretend to hold the truth. There are prediction markets for that!
106 - Thanks again Andrea- a great thread.
105 - it always strikes me as odd that Finland, where the average person has views not too dissimilar to the BNP on race / immigration (especially from Russia), does not have a far right wing party.
I was surfing about A. Mussolini when I read this :
“Europe’s first international grouping of neo-fascists, extreme nationalists and ultra-rightwingers collapsed in disarray yesterday, with its members incapable of overcoming the nationalist hostilities pitting them against one another.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/nov/15/eu.thefarright
As funny as it is pathetic!
To paraphrase:
“105 - it always strikes me as odd that THE UK, where the average person has views not too dissimilar to the BNP on race / immigration (especially from ASIA/AFRICA), does not have a MORE SUCCESSFUL far right party.”
109
It seems odd, indeed.
The more so for there is an Islamic Party in Finland!
“The Finnish Islamic Party platform supports a ban on alcohol sales, the option for Muslim children to be excused from school music classes and outings to swimming pools, legal status for ritual animal killing and male circumcision, and the eventual introduction of shari’a law in Finland. Tammi added that the purpose of Sharia law was to prevent crime.”
http://www.cwnews.com/news/viewstory.cfm?recnum=53472
109/111 - no, surely you’d be likely to have a strong far-right party when a vocal minority opposed immigration and expressed essentially racist views.
Where you have generalized opposition to immigration but widespread belief in the principle of racial tolerance and basic equality, you get the situation Britain had between circa 1964 and circa 2004: very strict immigration rules combined with race relations legislation, supported by both main parties.
Headcases (the new ITV Spitting Image) is getting tiresome now; it isn’t even topical.
Following the end of Soviet Finlandization, immigration is quite new in Finland.
Finns are a naieve nation. Although it is a common believe that ‘devils have brown eyes’, immigration is still new, the mass immigration of Britain has yet to happen.
Besides, Finnish women prefer coffee black and Finnish men are too drunk and neutered to do anything about it.
114 Spitting Images was always an Anti-Conservative propaganda vehicle.
To be topical they would need to poke fun out of Labour.
There is a wealth of jokes…the politically correct policeman arresting a child for climbing a tree…Gordon Brown picking his nose…the part time defence minister and defence cuts during wartime…etc
91 - There are two issues very likely to cause conflict: the financial settlement for Holyrood; and legislation covered by Sewel. As Parliament at Westminster is still sovereign in Scotland, it can unilaterally legislate in any area given over to the Scottish Parliament, or amend or repeal any Act of the Scottish Parliament. As part of the devolution process, the “Sewel Convention” was agreed, whereby the Scottish Parliament, via what is now know as a “Legislative Consent Memorandaum”, would agree to Westminster passing legislation that affected Scottish responsibilities - and there’s been at least one Act meeting that description in almost every session. Salmond could well object to a Conservative Westminster Bill using Sewel, and stake his government’s survival on it.
109 - the Islamic community in Finland goes back over a century, and consists of descendants of Tartars, back in the days when Finland was part of Russia.
The Finnish state is relatively tolerant on immigration; it can afford to be as Finland is inaccessible geographically.
116
And stuff like that can eb also very funny: diaspora of Ukrainian hookers complaining that British women ” are ghastly with their fake tans, fake breasts and peroxide hair” : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_article_id=560171&in_page_id=1879
With all the suggestions about reading the thread of 21st March last year, I did, and was particularly impressed by this one.
168 - Huge. Labour are going to be at least 10 points ahead in the next polls. Of course they will be at least 20 or 30 ahead with Gordon as the new leader. There are no flaws on him.
by MB March 21st, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Sounds about as sensible as all those Labour sheep dementedly waving their order papers and cheering.
So then, what do we expect to see in tomorrow mornings Standard/YouGov poll?
121 - no idea of the content of the poll, but I predict spin and counterspinas an aftermath.
The Times tomorrow has an altogether wonderful letter from Charles Clarke attacking Ed Balls in which he attacks him for his record of briefing against leaders, indicates that he thinks Balls is behind the story of a “stalking horse”, attacks his record in the Treasury and his incoherent policies in Education.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/letters/article3784378.ece
118
I was reliably informed when I used to visit Finland,that their language,climate,location and food were all major barriers to immigration.
122. It’ll be a Mayoral poll (the Standard have been publishing poll for the London contest every Monday for the last few weeks)
123. Good grief, Chrales Clarke is on the war path, isn’t he? I agree with much of what he’s saying about Brown and Balls, but I guess his electorate probably don’t think much to their MP behaving like this…. How comfortable is Clarkes seat?
124
food?
INSANITY IN THE UK
“How can my son be racist, asks mother of Down’s boy charged after playground spat with Asian girl”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=560226&in_page_id=1770
I’ve always liked Charles Clarke…
123 - yet more evidence of the end-game I posted about in the previous thread.
A spectacle to behold, and now I know how Labour friends felt in the 90’s watching the Major government tear itself apart.
Can’t wait!
LONDON: MUSLIMS FOR KEN
“Activists from a number of major Muslim organizations said this month that they wanted to see Livingstone defeat Boris Johnson, the rival candidate from the Conservative Party with whom he has been virtually tied in recent polls.”
http://www.crosswalk.com/news/11573673/
AP : “Boris defends stance on Islam”
He said: “There has certainly been too much uncounted and unfunded immigration into London. That presents huge problems for the London Boroughs which have to cope with the influx.”
125 Clarke is on his way to becoming a National Treasure, the curmudgeon who speaks the truth. Ed Balls seems to have upset him and Mr Clarke, unlike Ed, has nothing to lose. The media will ask him on programmes, ask him for opinion pieces, wine & dine him as long as he is topical.
125 - A majority of about 3500, and in Norwich South - I cannot imagine he will survive to the next Parliament, although no-one can say he hasn’t sucessfully distanced himself from the PM!
If he was an excellent constituency MP, then combined with high name recognition, I think that would save him, but he will probably lose.
The Lib Dems are very close behind him, and pb.com’s very own Cllr Anthony Little was third - is he running again?
133 According to Wikipedia, he is their PPC - MP’s who are members of pb.com could be larger than Plaid Cymru or even Sinn Fein in the next Parliament!!
126 - just ask Jacques Chirac. He said it was the worst in the world.
132. I think Labour has, consciously or subconsciously, given up on the next election: they have accepted some kind of defeat as inevitable.
What is going on now is a war for the soul of the Labour party after defeat, similar to the battle between europhiles and the eurosceptics in the late90s Tory party.
The difference with Clarke and Balls et al is that it is hard to see any great ideological dividing line between the two Labour factions - apart from their atavistic loyalty to Blair or Brown.
They are like the Guelphs and Ghibellines: they know they hate each other, and this hatred breeds more hatred; the reasons why they first hated each other are not particularly important any more, even if they could remember them.
Andrea, how does the Lega Nord’s performance compare to past election? 8.3% nationally seems very, very high. I was in Bergamo (or “Berghem”, as they’d have it) recently and saw some of their posters. Make the fascist parties’ efforts look positively innocent!
PS. I was at the launch of the new St Pancras station pub on Thursday night - my review of it is here if you’re interested: http://stonch.blogspot.com/2008/04/betjeman-arms-st-pancras.html
Very posh!
I guess he’s going to go down fighting, then. 3500 sounds pretty small. Can anyone think of a leading Conservative MP that was contantly a thorn in Major’s side, but ultimately went down to defeat? One of the Bastards?
136 - “I think Labour has, consciously or subconsciously, given up on the next election: they have accepted some kind of defeat as inevitable.”
Well if they have, they’re daft. I don’t think they have at all. Miliband’s “underdog” comment today was well timed. If ministers didn’t acknowledge that the government is coming across poorly at the moment, they’d look terribly arrogant and out of touch.
136. Agreed. Moral in the Labour Party does seem astonishingly low.
If sitting Labour MP’s start to bail out early from some of the marginal seats, we may just see a few Conservative by election gains before this Parliament is finished.
123
Is there anyone in the Labour party apart from Gordo and Cooper that have anytime for Balls?
One of the oldest stories in the book, though: the disgruntled backbencher who either has no hope of getting back into the ministerial ranks (as in this case), or who was never considered. Clarke’s intervened too often to be really damaging as an individual - but the time is coming, as it was for the Conservatives from about 1988 onwards, when the cumulative animus of these people on the backbenches makes unity extremely difficult for Labour, particularly if they rebel.
136. Of course they haven’t given up on the next GE.
You do post some pretty daft things sometimes Sean. Sigh.
130 - what’s occuring with this Phillipe Magnan punter? What’s his game?
141 - I thought that George Osborne had the most punchable face in front line politics. Balls is even worse, though.
139. Do you seriously think Labour can win an election with Brown? He looks unelectable to me. The only thing that can save Labour with Brown as leader, is for the Tories to not achieve the required swing to form a majority, but as far as who is going to come out as the winning party in terms of percentage and probably seats too, it looks a foregone conclussion to me.
146 - “Do you seriously think Labour can win an election with Brown?”
Well, I didn’t even imply an opinion either way in my post at 139, so this is something of a non sequitur. I assume you just value my opinion generally, which is very flattering.
In answer to your question, I think it’s possible. Not looking likely at the moment, thoughbut.
140 - “If sitting Labour MP’s start to bail out early from some of the marginal seats, we may just see a few Conservative by election gains before this Parliament is finished.”
Are you suggesting Labour MPs will start to take the Chiltern Hundreds for no real reason, just because they think they’ll lose the next election?
If so you know nowt about politics my friend.
147. Cheers.
139, 143.
*sigh*
Notice my use of the word “subconsciously”. I think Labour still pretends to itself it wants to win the next election; but the behaviour of a lot of its MPs says to me that they are, deepdown, more interested in kicking their opponents within the party, than tackling Cameron.
They are, again, just like the Tories in the 1990s.
I don’t blame them. Internecine party conflict is so much more entertaining and emotionally satisfying than the tedious business of responsible government.
Indeed I wonder if, after a while, parties actually get bored of governing and yearn for the buzz of oppositional catfighting. e.g. I reckon a lot of people in Labour had more FUN in the 1980s - with all its conflicts, spats and Conference fisticuffs - compared to the successful, but boringly regimented, Noughties.
148. I read something about Pension’s and how if they leave early they will get an early pay off or something…. Although I know one shouldn’t believe everything they read in newspapers…
146. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Look at the graph. Cameron was beating Blair by 10, 11 point leads (according to some pollsters, 7, 8 in others) as well. It’s not just a leadership problem. There has been maybe a 3/4% swing away from Labour since Brown took over. Even if we ignore all the events of the past few months and assume that they would have bounced off Tony and his lead would be unchanged, Labour would still be losing the next election.
139. Stonch, they polled 4.6% in 2006
Looking at Senate regions breakdown:
region/2006/2008
Piemonte: 6.5/12.3
Lombardia: 11.1/20.7
Veneto: 11/26.1
Friuli: 7.1/13
140
Sitting MP’s bail out early and miss all those taxfree expenses,second home claims and over generous redundancy,your having a laugh?
139. And Bergamo result (Camera)
PdL 30.2
Lega 19.9
PD 31.3
Di Pietro 5.6
UDC 5.3
Rainbow Left 2.8
152. An how do Brown and Blair’s personal rating compare?
I agree, Labour position with Blair seemed poor, but somehow I always got the feeling with Blair that he had the personal courage and fighting characterisitcs to turn it around. He was plausible, even when he was defending the indefensible. I get no such feelings from Brown, who looks out of his depth, is completely unconvincing and who has all the warmth and personality of a corpse!
138 - The three ‘Bastards’ were Howard, Lilly, and Portillo, of whom only Portillo lost his seat. The difference was he lost it from the front bench - a better example would be someone relegated to the backbenches through a public feud with Major, but then Major’s greatest critics were in his own Cabinet. Not sure any comparison is valid, or that people care. A good constituency MP might survive uniform swing, but I am told that is not Charles Clarke, so he will live and die by the Party (pro or anti Brown).
136 - Guelphs and Ghibellines is a most apposite comparison, which deserves to become standard fare - I’ll start spreading it around!
I think SeanT has a case. There’s a really odd sort of defeatism coming out government ranks: you hear it in many of the columnists with good contacts in that quarter, like Andrew Rawnsley. There seems to be a real lack of thinking about the sort of strategy they need to put up a fight, and demonstrate to people exactly what Labour wants to do in a fourth term. Some really do seem to want to lose and then remake the party afterwards; others appear to want to slog on and hope it all turns out all right in a year or so’s time. There’s no fight for a positive selling point. Labour isn’t finished for the moment as a governing party, and oculd conceivably fig themselves out of this hole - but some ministers certainly are behaving as if that’s impossible.
156. The last blair has -38.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/leaders/blair
The last brown has -26.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/leaders/brown
Brown is not as disliked as Tony yet. I think some people are suffering from nostalgia at the moment… remember how warm the summers were under Tony… and the sunsets…
152. Fascinating graph. Basically all three parties have been on the same trend since 2006 - gently upwards for the Tories; gently downards for Labour and the Lib Dems.
This trend was interrupted by the Brown Bounce, but catastrophically reversed again by the Election-That-Never-Was.
Given the likely economic circumstances over the next year; Labour’s problems in Scotland; the changed electoral boundaries; and the unwind of anti-Tory tactical voting - it is almost impossible to see how Labour can now reverse that trend and win the next election.
At least under this leader.
150 - ” Notice my use of the word “subconsciously”. ”
Yes, I did. I also noticed the full sentence you posted which was:
“I think Labour has, consciously or subconsciously, given up on the next election: they have accepted some kind of defeat as inevitable.”
Which was what I was responding to.
Do you see? That’s how discussion works. You say something, others respond. You then stick with what you’ve said, and don’t try and change it later.
159. 1997. 2003 and 2006. Vs 2007 (the washout)
Its true, summers WERE better under Blair.
161 - pressed send too quickly.
So, yes, I agree that some may subconsciously have given up. I just don’t believe that as a party or parliamentary party they have consciously done so. You suggested that might be the case. I was disagreeing.
yawn