Hillary plays the Bin Laden card
April 21st, 2008This is the ad that is running tonight on TV stations throughout Pennsylvania as Hillary seeks to ensure she secures the win in the primary tomorrow that will help keep her in the race.
The latest polling is here.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
What a hate-filled old trout she is.
Nothing wrong with this ad.
The Clinton campaign has had a tactic this entire campaign of playing the race card in a not-playing-it sort of way. They will either say something with ambigious meaning, or suggest something between the lines, or say it as “the Republicans will raise this in the Fall”. They think they can do it in such a way that it will be a dog-whistle to voters, but the media won’t pick up on it.
Only the media has been exposed to this for the last eight years of Karl Rove, and are wise to such gutter games now. Every time the Clintons have played this card it comes back to haunt them, and it will this time too. They’re just hoping Pennsylvanians vote before the media backlash begins. Perhaps they are right, but it will screw them in the next set of primaries.
can’t see what is wrong with it but will it be enough?
1. Erm sorry what’s wrong with that ad? I must be missing something but it just seems to be a very positive message about the need for the US President to be ready for anything. Can’t see any hate in it anywhere.
1. and 3. have you actually watched this ad?!
Mike - sure you have the right clip there?
Mike, is this thread a spoiler to interrupt the ICM poll thread, which has fairly good news for Labour?
I can’t see anything wrong with this ad and it certainly does not warrant your over-provocative headline.
The clip I have just watched looks ok to me.
1,3 seems a bit knee jerk over the top.
Nope, can’t see the problem with this.
I watched the video without sound so unless it was something the narrator said; I found nothing untoward with it. However, I thought the video was blaming Hillary for high ‘gas’ prices and abandoned factories so perhaps I am not the most astute observer to comment.
7, Agreed mentioning the toughest job, then a clip of history from 1930 to present day, showing events that happened on a presidents watch is hardly, Hilary plays the described card.
More like out host is playing a selective deck.
HAHAHA!!!
This clip made me laugh!
It’s like a Hollywood trailer..
*deep, gruff, American accent* “COOMING TO A CINEMA NEAAR YOOOOOU!!”
As usual, when asked the question at the end; “who do you want in charge?” - all I’m tempted to say is..
NOT YOU HILLARY!!
I think she could have thrown worse at him to be honest. Which to me suggests that she thinks she has enough to hold back a little.
7. these digs at mike by labour astroturfers are getting very tiresome
I must admit, I’d love to see a version with the same graphics, which ends:
“When the chips are down, wouldn’t you rather have a President that told you the truth?”
14 – Don’t fret so, Mike can take care of himself and no one is interested in anything Gabble has to say. Every village has it’s idiot, at least this one can spell and is at school for most of the day.
7, 11. I agree. Nothing wrong with this ad. In fact, it makes a pleasant change to see one that is generally positive in tone.
And what it says is true - any head of government / executive head of state has to be ready to respond to crises as they happen, sometimes unexpectedly. Whether or not Clinton has the experience and ability to genuinely be the best of the two in the Democrat race as the ad implies is a different question.
“7. Mike, is this thread a spoiler to interrupt the ICM poll thread, which has fairly good news for Labour?”
What a cruelly and inadvertently revealing insight, into the tiny, tiny mind of a Labour astroturfer.
ICM poll: It seems that the tory/media scare-mongering is not working. Thank goodness the cowardly self-serving tories on this site are not representative of the general public:
“Overall, 55% of people questioned said that they were confident about their personal financial situation, up seven points from February, when the question was last asked.
A further 44% people in today’s poll say they are not confident, down six points on February.”
Seems ok to me…
Why are US ads just so much better than our own? Didn’t John Schlesinger do a great one with John Major going back through his hood? That is it from memory.
18- I do not believe that astroturfers exist!
Well i don’t see the point of this thread. The last one was cut off in it’s constitutional prime!
18 - SeanT, I wouldn’t worry my dictionary defines ‘gabble’ as ‘a series of meaningless, unintelligable sounds’. Sounds about right
19. Interesting one that. A couple of friends of ours came round for dinner last night - both Tories, and both with financial savvy. They thought the credit crisis was being whipped up by the media and that, at the moment, it bore very little relation to reality.
Question: is Robert Peston the most dumbed down mainstream reporter ever to grace our television screens?
23 Gabble is one of the better more reasonable posters here.
Could improve his/her exposure mind by changing the “a” for an “o”
Wouldn’t “gobble” be more readable? Just a small tip.
19 - Yep, I’ve had a tax cut. Just need the unions to get us a decent pay award now…
Labour are on a role! Hooray!
OT, Joss Stone hits out at Labour’s treatment of injured soldiers.
http://itn.co.uk/news/6b511686bded1332f4b0a6a159fbbec0.html
Good to see a young lady knows right from wrong - rather than Labour’s Why Bother Generation.
24 - I spend my entire career with economists and various other interested parties. If anything the media is erring on the side of not provoking a panic. There is certainly evidence that things are incredibly grim. Read the lates IMF report, bodies like that are not know to be doom mongers and their report is pretty chilling.
It sounds like El Gordo has just about bought off the rebels, with some Uriah Heeping and a bit of jam-tomorrow.
Tories should be pleased. The last thing the right wants is Labour coming to their senses and actually replacing Brown - with someone comparatively personable, and electable.
Brown must stay in power, inshallah.
29 - Give them a week and there will be some new crisis.
30. Wasn’t that in reply to 28
28. James Burdett: “Read the lates IMF report, bodies like that are not know to be doom mongers and their report is pretty chilling.”
The IMF are forecasting moderate growth - not exactly ‘chilling’.
32 - Read the whole report.
24
“A couple of friends of ours came round for dinner last night - both Tories, and both with financial savvy. They thought the credit crisis was being whipped up by the media and that, at the moment, it bore very little relation to reality.”
239
” Bailing out irresponsible companies (the banks) and irresponsible borrowers (pracically everyone who has taken out a mortgage in the last two years) does not strike me as something I would expect the Conservative party to support.”
Hmm
I think the potential collapse of the western world banking system, a cessation of all new lending and most major US banks going bust is pretty serious…And a world recession which would make 1929 look like a picnic on a warm summer’s day is something to worry about.
But obviously I am in a minority.
33 - I’m sure they couch the whole thing in terms of a range of possible outcomes.
34 - well yes it would be. But nobody’s suggesting that’s going to happen.
24. Richard: “Question: is Robert Peston the most dumbed down mainstream reporter ever to grace our television screens?”
I predicted some weeks ago that Peston would win an award for his ‘journalism’ and so, depressingly, it came to pass.
The way he identified hundreds (thousands?) of pounds of ‘risk’ to each taxpayer in the country, over NR, was some of the most dishonest BBC reporting since Gilligan hung David Kelly out to dry.
35 - Yes they do, but the range is from moderately bad through to incredibly bad.
This is politics pure and simple. If Obama was in the same position he’d do it as well.
Alls fair.
37 - There was and still is hundreds of thousands of pounds of risk per taxpayer.
33. I understand one recent report into the credit crunch - might have been IMF - put the chances of a major global bank failure, and therefore a global slump, as about 1 in 10. Or something like that, anyway.
That’s not the chances of a mild recession, that’s the chances of a serious crash. Close enough to be “chilling”, I’d say.
38 - So do the climate change scientists, but it doesn’t stop the sceptics going bad when the Guardian selectively quotes the domesday scenarios.
*going mad
37, He did his job. If you can show me a patent lie that he peddled you show me it.
Ad by the way NR was effectvely insolvent as it turned out, so dont go down that track.
37 – Re-writing history young man?
The Labour party and Blair’s pet rottweiller Alistair Campbell hung Prof David Kelly “out to dry”
And it killed him.
The Slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ remains below 10% :
http://www.slate.com/id/2189567/
41 - I believe it was, frankly when you read the amount of doom I get through in a day it all merges into one. The consensus is that this is the biggest banking shock since the depression.
40. James Burdett: “There was and still is hundreds of thousands of pounds of risk per taxpayer.”
I don’t think you mean “hundreds of thousands of pounds per taxpayer”?
However, perhaps you could outline a circumstance in which each taxpayer would lose hundreds of pounds over NR?
18. How disappointing to see that SeanT the acclaimed novelist (albeit using a pseudonym) slips so easily into the ugly cliches of the dullest party hacks.
(PS. Your old flame’s name came up to do a VO for a chocolate ad I’m doing)
37 So let me get this straight you are chastising Robert Peston for revealing potential losses to the taxpayer from a bank in Labour heartlands with Labour toadys like wanless running it after being encouraged by a the most profligate chancellor in history.
and amazingly even worse you are somehow blaming Andrew Gilligan for David Kelly’s “suicide”. When what he was doing was reporting on a government that lied in taking us to war. A government that at the very least then put enough pressure on Kelly for him to kill himself.
You are one special individual Gabble.
37 and 48 Thanks for that Gabble - missed those comments of yours previously, and glad to see I’m not alone. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a kindergarten treatment of a serious brief. Makes ITN reporters look like Richard Dimbleby.
48 - There are plenty, admittedly slightly less now that the bank is in state hands. However that there are any is the definiton of ‘risk’.
44 & 45. Gilligan betrayed Kelly to the FASC. A disgraceful act for which he later apologised at the Hutton enquiry.
50. I did some work with Today and everyone there with whom I spoke alleged that Gilligan was the sloppiest, laziest journalist in the building. His desk which I saw was a shocker. To say he cut journalistic corners would be euphemism of the year.
(Apologies to those of you who suddenly love Gilligan because of his attacks on Livingstone.)
53. Grr! If only the past, and unusually edifying, thread on London’s constitutional arrangements hadn’t been cut off in its prime!
If Gabble thinks the David Kelly affair and Northern Rock are strong cards to play as a Labour cheerleader, then the government is very much still in trouble!
Obama responds to this advert with his own
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gD9XWqEobg&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/
Hat-tip to Daily Kos
54 I don’t know Gilligan personally as you seem to do, all I know is that he appeas to be a good investigative journalist and if his desk is untidy then (admittedly I don’t share an office) but I am prepared to forgive him.
Thank fully the site seems to have lost my slightly over raught defence of hillary but i have watched that ad 7 times and can’t find a sentilla wrong with it. I suspect some posters criticism is based on the fact that (a) its going to work (b) she refuses to roll over and die.
55 - A great shame.
Gilligan didnt betray anyone. This patent bollocks.
David Kelly had briefed the media for years and years and was known to be by government. In fact I can guarantee you that during Labour’s time in office Kelly was anonymously briefing the media on WMD. He was the anonymous government expert or source’ that got quoted in plenty in a number of articles in previous years. Kelly knew how it worked. Kelly would have briefed the British media about Russian WMD efforts for example, which isnt surprising because Kelly did the inspection visits.
This man was no quiet lil scientist though the fallout of his Iraq allegations which turned out to be correct by the way was beyond what he’d experienced, this guy was used to being harassed and bullying attempts during his many years as a weapons inspector.
The difference over Iraq was that the briefing was running against the government.
54) GILLIGAN - HAS A MESSY DESK!
lol!
54 - Hutton, and Dr. Kelly’s death, could have been avoided had Dyke and Davies asked to check Gilligan’s notes before deciding to fight Campbell on the issue. This was their one real mistake, and they paid (too much) for it; Birt wouldn’t have made that mistake. Long before Hutton, complaints about his poor skills were well-known - I remember that Michael Cole even complained about his skills in a 2000 article in the Spectator.
1. Martin. What exactly did you find ‘hate filled’ in the ad-or did you forget to watch it before you typed?
The case against political ads in Britain? From a comment on the ad on the Daily Kos.
‘I think I saw this ad this morning but then I saw 2 Obama ads that same hour. And then I saw a different Obama then next hour.
She is running damn few ads in PA. Obama is running a lot. I cannot go anywhere where I do not hear an Obama ad on the radio ( while in a store ) or on TV somewhere in PA.
I went for a walk to the bank and I hear an Obama ad blaring over a car radio, someone had their window open with a tv on, heard an Obama ad. I came home, turned on the TV and sure enough, an Obama ad came on a few minutes later.’
American Ads make me want to smack the screen, thank god we don’t have that sort of thing here. At least there is a decent code with PPBs so any lies have to be justified to a degree.
It’s just a weak advert, it doesn’t say anything and, even worse, is applicable to all candidates.
61. Yes, clearly the insalubrious state of Andrew Gilligan’s desktop gonks proves that the New Labour government told the truth on WMD.
The Welsh Liberal Democrat society event of the year!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7359889.stm
57. I think the strong feeling in this case was that his journalistic methodology mirrored his sloppy desk / flat / personal habits. Lest I risk this site incurring the wrath of lawyers, let’s just say that some of his former colleagues thought his journalistic style ‘lacked sufficient rigour’. Which all rather came true, alas.
Anyway, Peston really is more suited to Newsround, or perhaps In the Night Garden.
29: ‘It sounds like El Gordo has just about bought off the rebels, with some Uriah Heeping and a bit of jam-tomorrow.’
No suprise there. As I said the other day, the Labour Party is little more than Brown’s plaything; its MPs grovel beneath his disdainful sneer.
A Labour MP on Newsnight acknowledging that the government got it wrong in abolishing the 10% tax rate and that they need to do what’s necessary to redress the wrong.
Well here’s a curious solution. Scrap the change. Scrap the abolition of the 10 % tax rate and scrap the reduction of the tax rate from 22% to 20%.
Too simple no doubt but seems fair enough to me.
Can someone explain to me what aboslute lie Robert Peston ever came out with?
Cheeky Girl singer Gabriela Irimia is to marry the Liberal Democrat MP Lembit Opik, it has been reported.
60. Yokel: “Gilligan didnt betray anyone. This patent bollocks.”
I’m sorry Yokel but this is a well known fact and is even admitted by Gilligan himself. He sent letters to individual members of the FASC insinuating that Kelly was the source for Susan Watts’ story.
Kelly was then ambushed with this information during the FASC appearance and, unfortunately, was panicked into not telling the whole truth.
Kelly’s friends described that after the FASC appearance, Kelly was distressed and angry with himself.
70 - Was his name Gordon Prentice?
73. Do you know anything about David Kelly and his history at all?
75. I don’t disagree with the rest of your post @60.
37 - The labour government, guided by Alastair Campbell, hung Kelly out to dry. Let’s face it, Gilligan was right, the dossier had been sexed up.
68 - I had heard the same less-than-complementary stories about his desk/methodology, but with the caveat that he had paid the price for the Kelly Affair and was now a meticulous and extremely well-ordered operator.
I don’t know if either are true, but the discipline of both his investigative journalism and the careful release of stories about Ken belies a very capable operator. His work, and the extent to which it has withstood scrutiny, has been a major factor in my decision (as yet unfinalised) about who to vote for on May 1st.
68. What a load of bollox. Unlike you, I am a journalist*. It’s not hard to spot the good ones in my profession - and their skills have nothing to do with “keeping a tidy desk”.
Good journalists are accessible, bold, unpartisan and direct. By this definition, Peston is a pretty good economics journalist; Gilligan is a very good newspaper journalist. Just cause you don’t like what they say doesn’t make this untrue.
*I guess it is possible you are a journalist, hiding behind anomymity. In which case you are a coward.
65 UKpaul agreed so the accusation that Hilary plays the card described at the top of the thread,is over the top don`t you think ?
78 - ah, that may well be the case. I only had contact with his Today days and he may, indeed, have taken the criticism to heart and become as sharp in methodological background and detail as you really need to be if you are an investigative journalist. Within reason you need to ensure as far as possible that your allegations are backed with evidence rather than hearsay.
I worked with the Beeb in the aftermath of the Gilligan fallout and it was hell, and much of what I was doing was investigative. Lawyers crawled all over every single letter of every word. We needed everything backed up by 5 or more corroborating pieces of evidence, in writing. It took me months to get a documentary I had made past their legal team. Gilligan’s name by this point in the building was mud. Rightly or wrongly he was blamed for the BBC reaction, and the Been were scared stiff of any kind of legal attack.
I then wrote a couple of articles in the Sunday Times and the contrast was huge. After 30 minutes with the Sunday Times lawyers they sent it to print!
77. There’s no evidence for that I’m afraid.
What is the mess on Gillian’s desk compared to the mess the NeoConservatives have made of Iraq?
Perhaps this thread would more appropriately be called “smithson plays the Clinton plays the Bin Laden card”
I won’t criticise the host as i am addicted to this site and it is a big day in American politics tomorrow so rather than navel gaze about Gilligan’s desk, what is going to happen tomorrow and what’s at stake? what is a good/bad result for either candidate?
80 - Subliminally, it’ll have an effect on some people. The reason being that right wing talk radio has been busy claiming that Obama is Muslim. So much so that 10% of Americans actually believe it.
Clinton’s problem has been her use of this, her infamous ‘as far as I know’ statement being the worst.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/as-far-as-i-kno.html
Let me set this out in simple terms here.
Kelly had been briefing the media for years, with full government knowledge. When this anonymous but credible expert’s views came out over WMDs in Iraq came out the government molehunt was could have been whittled down to a list of probably no more than 5 within a day of not hours.
Kelly would have been on that list, if not top of it because there isnt actually too many people in that business
That a) would have been considiered credible and b) would have known how to brief the media considering most people in that arena simply dont talk much.
Add to that c) that Kelly’s approach, tone and language was already well known because he’d briefing for years on WMD issues to the media.
Gilligan can say what he likes about ‘betraying’ Kelly but reality is that the government already knew Kelly was a likely suspect and probably high up the list.
Sorry folks, I did promise an update of this contest whilst I as in the US but my 5 star hotel (hurrah) was charging $18 per day internet access (boo).
Anyways, I am pretty certain that Hilary will will tomorrow 54-46, possibly 52.5 - 47.5 at the worst. Her best possible margin will be 55-45 but I’d be very surprised at anything that high.
Hills will certainly win tomorrow (and I’d happily take a bet on anyone predicting a BO win) but not by enough - the next two contests should be BO, no problem, and that should be that.
71 Yokel, I don`t think he lied at all.
But I must admit his breathless style hardly instills confidence in what he is reporting.
I much prefer the woman on BBC who seems more professional and explains without the need for hyper ventilating.
85. So?
79. The way you write Sean leaves me in little doubt that you would sympathise with Gilligan’s, er, ‘methodology’ …
Fortunately for this country there are still people around who are prepared to be thorough and careful, painstaking even. When dealing with something as important as, say, an allegation to the heart of a Govt taken this country to war it’s rather important.
(As it happens I like what Gilligan has done on Livingstone, but I wouldn’t expect you to understand that one can be objective. Pause. Waits for predictable astroturfer comment.)
88. Gilligan didnt betray anyone. Thats what.
87. I can get that a journalist’s style may not suit everyone but siome people seem to want to pin NR’s effective insolvency on the man….
Gabble adopting the Ed Balls approach, I see.
This thread is quite funny tonight actually - even Tyson made me laugh!
Very witty guys, very witty
As it happens, I think this advert is ridiculous, because it paints a variety of scenarios from history and purports to suggest that Hillary Clinton would have been suitable to deal with *ALL* of them, which I find just has me rolling around in stitches!!
She is the absolute epitome of a raving, deluded, megalomaniac.
I have to say personally I have no problem with political ads, they are at least honest. I think that PPB’s and PEB’s are stale and really irritating most of the time. I have rarely seen a UK political slot that I haven’t thought boring as hell. Ok so the US ads tend to go fiercely negative, but here politicians will assert something in a speech that is palpable nonsense and there is limited means to correct it. I could imagine that if every time the PM said inflation is 2% when in 1997 (under a different measure) it was more there was a juicy little attack ad pushed out it would at least make politics slightly more feisty.
86 - Glad you’re having a good time in the USA! For the record $18/night for internet is pretty reasonable - I regularly pay £15 (or $30) a night, or £75/week in hotels!
I agree Hillary will win it tomorrow, and I actually don’t think it really matters by how much. If it is 2%, she will still say ‘I win the big states’ - as she has already lost any chance of winning PV or pledged delegates, then the vote share is pretty academic.
The SDs who are still on the fence might as well let the final 9 primaries occur, and let it take its course. Hillary won’t drop out on Weds unless she actually loses in Pennsylvania, and I don’t think the SDs will flood to Obama until after South Dakota/Montana. 1% will be enough to see us go on to North Carolina and Indiana.
Whats that story about Ken’s advisor and his link with some terrorist group that I saw on the news stands when I was in London?
You guys are going to some interesting hotels, most of the ones I go to seem to have wireless internet for nought.
93 - Oh please.
90. Yokel: “Gilligan didnt betray anyone. Thats what.”
The penny’s dropped - you haven’t got a clue about what happened, have you?
I can’t be bothered to pick out all the links for you but if you would like to avail youself of even some of the facts, I would be happy to re-engage.
95. Anythimng much under 10% margins in PA and the pressure will be on Morus, have no doubt. 8/9% maybe but something like 5-6% and more voices will be heard.
89. lol What’s your methodology? To come on here and smear and criticise someone - while remaining a shrivelled and quivering little coward of anonymity yourself.
If you don’t like what Gilligan does, come out and say it in your own name. Otherwise, shut the F up, you saggy little gusset of GAY.
99.
The molehunters already had a good idea who it was. This wasnt some blind hunt that Gillgan suddenly cracked by giving it away.
Gilligan may believe so but Gilligan is wrong.
Whether you choose to believe that is up to you but I’ve set out the case.
95. Free internet access in hotels should always be a must on $250 a night
Anything less than a 10% win can be spun any way - I personally think OB will be fine in the next 3 states - Hills won’t drop out - but OB should claim victoriy tomorrow even if he loses (within a 10% margin)
100 - But she’ll just ignore it again. I feel like Charlie Brown - every election night since Iowa we seem to have had a discussion that comes to: “If Hillary doesn’t manage xxxxx, she’ll have to drop out/will be forced out/Superdelegates will flood to Obama”, and it NEVER happens!
She was supposed to drop out if she lost Nevada, or if she didn’t sweep the floor on Super Tuesday, or if she lost Maine (as a NE state), or if she didn’t win any of the 11 after Super Tuesday, or if she didn’t sweep Texas/Ohio/Rhode Island/Vermont, or if she didn’t get Texas/Ohio/Rhode Island, or if she didn’t get at least Texas and Ohio, or Pennsylvania by 25 points etc etc etc
I have given up setting minimum victories for HRC. She will either drop out of her own volition (not before the convention, I reckon) or the Superdelegates will announce, and Obama crosses the 2025 so she can’t win (they won’t all flood until after the last primary if she is still in).
104, But will the rest of the Democrat base ignore it.
97. As a travel journalist I get to stay in a lot of 5 star hotels (I couldn’t afford them any other way). And I am constantly amazed by the extras added-on by 5 star hotels. Wifi for $30, cup of tea for $10, etc etc. All the time that they are already charging $600 a room.
The apotheosis of this was reached, for me, when I stayed in a famous Monte Carlo Hotel last autumn. They showed me the best suite in the hotel, which has the best view of the Grand Prix. They told me George Lucas books it every year, for the motor race - and it costs him $10,000 a night.
But guess what? BREAKFAST IS NOT INCLUDED. I’d like to be there for that conversation, if George ever decided to get shirty about this.
“What, I’m paying you $10,000 a night, but I have to pay ANOTHER eight bucks for this boiled egg?”
105 - She stopped listening to them a long time ago. There is only one strategy now. Survive to the Convention, and win it dirty. If the remaining Superdelegates haven’t annointed Obama within 3 days of the final primary, I think her chances rise to about 40-45%.
106. I’d want my own chef for that money..or at least an in-room microwave with a packet of complimentary sausage rolls.
106 - and I wouldn’t mind, but the extras are a disgrace even if they were included free. Any Hilton hotel will bill about 25 euros for a cooked breakfast that I would refuse to pay for in Little Chef. It is astonishing that even in good hotels with excellent restaurants, the room service food is actually inedible.
93 “She is the absolute epitome of a raving, deluded, megalomaniac.”
A tad harsh - but it does seem that she may carry the Mugabe gene - that inability to know when it is time to leave the stage…
107. What I mean is will more drift from her. I am not convinved that the Dems are split between two never the twain shall meet factions. Somewhere in there are soft supporters for each.
They may just drift away from her if she just keeps on and on. Yes she may continue on but ironically it could make a clean defeat for her, maybe, more likely.
Just a theory.
109 You want a Vegas breakfast..the MGM Grand was noticeably great I have to say compared to any other in hotel breakfast I;ve ever got.
Otherwise down the street to an IHOP. The servings would sedate a cow.
We are still dominated by Hillary surviving. Whats the minimum need for her to claim momentum. 12.5% ? 15% wehn is he on aroll and can say. I’m winning the big staes and this race is going the distance.
I think Morus is spot on here. If, and its a collosal if, she gets to the convention and he doesn’t have 2025 then i think her chances oar to the 40% range.
Any news on SeanT’s suggested gos on obama?
Yokel at 96: There’s a bloke who supports Hamas and also belongs to a group of Muslims that supports Ken. Er that’s it.
101. I’m glad to see you don’t waver from your usual standards of erudite debate Sean. I can easily see why you are so successful …
109. Think it depends where you are. American hotels are pretty mediocre - the brilliant ones are never that brilliant, but the bad ones generally have biggish beds and proper TVs.
Elsewhere you CAN find truly brilliant hotels if you’re prepared to pay. I had the best breakfast of my life in Monte Carlo - at a Joel Robuchon restaurant attached to me hotel. The room was 1500 euros a night. The fish soup on room service was sensational.
Evelyn Waugh said Monte had the best hotels in the world and there is still a truth in that - they’ve been doing tourism longer, on the Riviera, than anywhere else in the world. But you pay.
5 star hotels in Asia - Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan etc - are generally fantastic.
Benedict Brogan’s take on the PLP meeting tonight.
Candid Brown pleads for his job
“I seem to recall that when things weren’t looking good for Dave last summer, he vowed to “ride the dip” by forcing the pace of confrontation with his party. Gordon Brown did the same tonight at the PLP, and there are initial signs that it has paid off.”
There is one problem though, Jeremy Paxman noted that you could not find a Treasury Minister for dust tonight. They should have had strong representation ready to go on Newsnight, there expecting their MP’s and activists to take it on the chin on the doorsteps in the run up to the May elections.
Starting to notice people queuing at the petrol pumps in Aberdeen to day as the possible strike and its impact starts to feed into the media, we could panic ourselves into a shortage before the strike.
113. Interesting theory but on what basis do her chances increase when she reaches convention, simply that shes ground him down?
It possibel I suppose. Its noticeable that Obama should have and hasnt buried her and made an error being so dead against re runs in MI & FL which would haved likely seen him do better than teh first results thus helping to kill her off.
Most interestingly, after Texas & Ohio, I though the guy was geneuinely aghast that she was still in there and the pst defeats speeches were all about the numbers, not the vision. His camp are still a bit scared of her, and thats not too strong a word, because I assume, deep down, they think somehow she might wangle it.
115. “I’m glad to see you don’t waver from your usual standards of erudite debate Sean. I can easily see why you are so successful …”
I’ve just been buying up seanT’s back catalogue. I’m not going to read them but they’re cheaper than fire wood:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/074758219X/ref=sr_1_olp_2?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208817553&sr=8-2
OT - I make it the 6th poll in the last 20 with a Tory lead of 5% or less.
If 1 in 20 is a rogue, to get 6 rogues in the last 20 is pretty unusual…
Or perhaps Tories should stop shouting “rogue” so often.
115. Exactly. You’d never catch me hiding behind some stupid “nom de plume”, some pathetic wall of pseudonymity, some girly manufactured pretend-y name like, ooh, “Richard” or “Tom Knox”.
119. http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/0552154016/ref=dp_olp_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1208817723&sr=1-1
Ahem.
114. Given some of Ken’s acquaintances I suppose it maybe doesnt add much if thats the top and bottom of it.
116. Dubai. I think a hotel I stayed in there once was 4 star but god, was it heck. That place was terrific, the breakfast spread and cooking was fabulous, you asked for it and you got it.
119 When Socialists fail in argument, they attack the person.
That said, buying Used books is a good way of recycling books. Sellers do make money on the postage - but still a good way to buy while minimising the impact on the environment,.
Paddick comes out for Boris:
“I just don’t trust Ken Livingstone,” Mr Paddick, 49, said. “The thought of having him as my boss sends shivers down my spine.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3792709.ece
I like this idea of leaving books on trains and all for others to read. I suppose now though you did that and theyd be having a controlled explosion on it or sending freeze all over it.
123. No, buying used books sucks! I get no money as an author from used books. If you are a skinflint, borrow it from the library - then I get 0.00001p per copy borrowed, or something.
But used books, ugh.
I appreciate my perspective is somewhat warped.
Nothing wrong with this Clinton ad…..just ends with ” who do you thinks got what it takes?”….nothing derogatory about Obama, in fact doesn’t mention his name at all!
CNN have just shown this as an example of a negative ad along with an example of a negative Obama ad…the Obama one mentions Clinton’s name 3 times..
I admit I would prefer Cointon to be the nominee but if it’s Obama that’s ok in th end as I want a Democrat in the White House. Even on this site amongst UK observers like myself, I’m quite amazed by those who prefer Obama by the amount of vitriol they hand out to Clinton.
Happens thread after thread and number 1 on this thread is a good example.
118. Well I was just pinching Morus’s theory. Having watched him in full in last weeks debate i just think he is becomming frustrated by her refusing to die. he’s JFK/MLK/Jesus Christ and this radioactive old fish wife won’t go away. Like the daily Show said she’s like the terminator. What ever you do to her she reassembles her self.
Also his his USP is shot. pastor and bitter gates have turned him from a transformative to a merely superb candidate. he’s like a greek god turned into a mortal and reurned to earth. he still has magic powers just not those of zeus
125 - I had a friend who got stopped and searched by US immigration when flying in from Abu Dhabi. He had only two books in his suitcase - a copy of the Koran (given by a Muslim colleague) and a book called “The I Hate My Job Handbook: How to Deal with Hell at Work”.
He got held up for several hours. Books can be very damaging for your liberty. They should be banned.
126 - 0.00001p. So Catherine Cookson and Barbara Taylor Bradford never got so rich after all, then!
113. Good question? What happened to that supposed gossip about Mrs Obama? My source was a very senior journo - however he or she was a bit drunk and possibly teasing - which is why I expressed grave doubts at the time.
THAT SAID, I wonder if this is one reason Hillary just won’t give up - she knows or suspects there is more dirt to come on Obama, so she will have a better chance down the line if she hangs in there now.
It’s a theory. Not a great theory, but a theory.
Skynews is reporting that “Forty Labour MPs have backed a rebel amendment over Gordon Brown’s proposal to ditch the 10p tax rate - despite his efforts to head off a humiliating defeat.”
127, Dont you get it dave? Obama is the messiah, hes perfect, the beauty of a rose, the fight of a lion, the power of thunder, the gentle warmth like the babble of a stream on a sunny day, the kindness of a good samaritan. he has never made a mistake, every move he makes is always correct.
Clinton is the pantomine wicked witch wanting to stop good boy Obama and eat him for breakfast..in fact enslave him in chains..then maybe eat him after he becomes too weak to toil in the cotton fields….
As someone pointed out his slogan is ‘Yes We Can’…..just like Bob the Builder.
He’s a politician, no more, no less.
126. I think the maximum you can earn from Public Lending Rights is £5k a year. This year I made the princely sum of £200, from all my books borrowed in UK libraries.
The good side is that they give you quite a detailed breakdown of where and when your books were taken out. So I know that my naughty novel, The Cheek Perforation Dance, was more popular in swinging London than elsewhere.
In the lonely north they preferred my internet dating memoir.
128. I agree think he is frustrated and I think his camp are a little scared, as illogical as it may seem.
131. will they carry through though when it comes to the division lobbies. For once I think the majority will.
I think the only charitable act I really regret was giving half my books away to oxfam. I try to think of a mosquito net somewhere but secretly imagine another book linned wall in my flat and the minging 50p they fetched if that.
apart from the Jeffrey Archer. Giving that away was fine.
Tax Rebels Sign Up Against Brown
Not much detail on the actual MP’s involved in this article from Jon Craig.
My guess is that Martin Salter is a rebel at the moment, but will be bought off. He will appear on the radio in the coming days saying that following very good discussions and concessions, he now supported the government and urged all Labour MPs to do the same.
He always does that. Every bloody time!
136. 40 MPs? That’s easily enough to defeat the government, isn’t it? As long as all the other parties go through the No lobby with the rebels.
Can’t see it happening, but fun to speculate.
134.Yokel, I think that Brown and Darling are going to have to give them some cast iron guarantee’s that they can sell on the doorstep.
More from Jon Craig on tonights PLP meeting. Gordon Tells Labour MPs: I Feel Your Pain
“Being Gordon, of course, there was tough as well as tender: “We cannot have the Budget defeated,” he told his MPs. “We have a responsibility to listen, hear and understand what has been said. But there’s a responsibility on all of us to unite.”
Not everyone agreed, of course. Frank Field, the MP leading the revolt which could defeat the Budget, was unimpressed. “Were you convinced?” he was asked as he left the meeting. “No,” he said. Well, that’s pretty clear, then.
And another MP considering backing his rebel amendment told me: “What’s all this nonsense about how we can’t unravel the Budget?
“We defeated John Major’s government on VAT on fuel and so that Budget unravelled. But the rest of it still went through.”
A good point, I thought.”
120 - quite. As I said on the previous thread - this is a pretty good poll for the Tories from one of their least favourable pollsters.
It doesn’t change anything - Tories around 39/41, Labour 32/34, Lib Dems 17/19.
It means hung parliament territory and if Labour can find a way to claw back a couple of points probably makes them favourite for largest party. But to do that they have to do two things - one realise they’re in a hole and two stop digging…
132. Spot on. thats what her ad boils down to. “I’m an evil old witch, but i’m YOUR evil old witch. Where as Obama is the nice kid that dies in the second quarter of the horror flik despite his purity. Or the non offensive ensign on the away mission in star trek. he may die nobly but he gets one episode. I may be an evil old witch but my charatcter gets a place in the sequal. So ignore your feelings and vote for me.”
138.Sean, a few days ago I thought that Brown might lose this vote, but now I am more inclined to think he will scrape through. But the problem will be more about the intense scrutiny and further bad headlines as this issue drags on. Gordon Brown and Darling could have sorted this before now and saved themselves this unedifying pickle.
I posted a link the Benedict Brogan article @117 and he reminded us of the Brownite tack of trying to smoke out the Conservatives tax plans before the GE that never was, gleefully noting that they could sit and unpick at their leisure. They are doing to themselves what they hoped to do to the Conservatives.
“Last summer Brown Central talked about the rope-a-dope trick, though I don’t think they quite had this slow-motion disaster in mind. What they must now hope for is that Mr Brown can continue to absorb the daily blows, many self-inflicted, without the Tories closing the deal.”
Yokel, the reason I suggest that her chances go to 40% if she reaches the convention are as follows:
1) The Superdelegates already know (effectively) that Obama has won the pledged delegate count and almost certainly the popular vote. If that was the ball game, they’d just annoint him now.
2) They may be waiting for June 3rd, after the final primary, so as not to pre-empt any of the primaries, and thus give every state and territory a say, before annointing Obama. This should happen within a couple of days of the final primary.
3) They’ve not flooded to him yet, and if they don’t flood to him by June 6th or so, then clearly they are not convinced by Obama. They may not be pro-Clinton, but they are not just fabricating support for him.
4) If this goes to the Convention, these swinging SDs will have to vote on whether to seat MI and FL, and without being aligned to either campaign, I think they will vote to seat them, because it would be better for the party not to alienate those local parties if you can help it. If MI and FL get seated, that gets Clinton close (but not close enough), which could start a momentum wave (Conventions, like markets, don’t react - they overreact).
5) Obama has won the battles and has won the war - the Convention is like a jousting competition at the end of the war. Archaic rules, cheating, drinking, and confusion, and winning a joust requires a different set of skills to being a great warrior. Furthermore, both sides are equalised in scale by the limited number of attendees, meaning that key personalities count for much much more. In that environment, with not much between them, I think it is a lot more level.
So for Clinton, the strategy has to be win PA to stay alive, neutralise a loss in NC by winning IN, win WV, win KY and maybe OR, stay competitive in SD and MT, and above all *pray that the Superdelegates remain undecided in the 3 days following the last primary*.
An interesting thought, PantherDave (27): “Even on this site amongst UK observers like myself, I’m quite amazed by those who prefer Obama by the amount of vitriol they hand out to Clinton. Happens thread after thread and number 1 on this thread is a good example.”
Possibly because a lot of the Obama fans are our Young Conservative friends, and they do get very vitriolic whenever they can (ie in working hours).
120. One could equally note that 6 of the last 10 polls have a Conservative lead of 10% or more.
I fully appreciate the problems with poll averaging put forward by Mike S and Andy Cooke’s post 204 on the previous thread cannot be argued with. So it is certainly true that an average of recent polls may not be more accurate than any one poll.
But at the same time, if one was forced to estimate the current true state of the Parties it’s hard to see that one would do anything other than average recent polls.
There is certainly a debate to be had about how to do the average - clearly each pollster should only be included once, you want most pollsters included but at the same time you don’t want to go back too far in time. How about say all polls in the last 3 weeks with a maximum of one poll per pollster - if any pollster has done more than one poll in the period only include the most recent one.
On the above basis, we have:
ICM - Con lead 5%
Populus - Con lead 10%
YouGov - Con lead 16%
ComRes - Con lead 7%
Average - Con lead 9.5%. (No Ipsos-MORI in last 3 weeks). Looks a reasonable estimate, all things considered.
142. Agreed, though I never really thought Brown could lose this. A failed Budget at this stage in a third term was always gonna be practically a No Confidence vote - and there’s no way Labour MPs have got the stomach to damage Brown so lethally.
Even if it might make sense electorally to humiliate him so he had to leave, so they can get Straw or Johnson or Milliband in (which is arguable) the sheer bloodletting is, surely, too offputting.
Brown’ll win this one. And the slow trudge to a Labour general election defeat will continue.
And on that very happy note, I’m off to follow the three wise men to Bedlhehem.
145 - a poll can be non-rogue, but flawed, as the sampling and adjustments applied by the polling company are on a flawed basis.
I maintain the London mayor result will be interesting as we can compare the polls to the result - and then decide how much we can trust national polls - esp YouGov.
I believe that Clinton will be close to the popular vote following tomorrows poll.
If she pulls off a win in Indiana, West Varginia, Kentuky, Oregon - she might have a lead in the popular vote including Florida (not including Michigan). Which is quite interesting….
141 - In the business they are known as ‘red shirts’ (reason obvious), Obama, if nothing else, is definitely not a ‘red shirt’.
Clinton, however, could easily be the ‘monster of the week’.
Only joshing. Seriously, the picture drawn by yokel that Obama supporters are looking for a messiah is exactly why Clinton’s campaign has been so poor, she (and supporters) haved an imagined view of his supporters which is an attempt to hide the fact that she has been out-fought, out-thought and out-classed.
144 - Obama seems to attract supporters of all parties here, Clinton attracts the new labour and neo-con types more than anything. Maybe the latter are doing it out of fun but I think they admire her.
145. Andy’s data indicated there was no harm in simple-averaging the polls, and probably something to be gained. The average equalled or bettered 62% of individual polls…
ukpaul - lmao, I think she has Thatcher kind of image..some sympthathy for the underdog.
As for Obama getting support from Republicans that’s a load of nonsense - It’s not like McCain is a typical republican - infact he will probably get some of Hillary’s voters.
It’s very interesting how Hillary, despite being the GOP hate figure has elements of support from republicans. And how latte-liberals formally Clinton supporters are now supporting Obama.
Perhaps Clintons “repositioning” as Senator has helped her get that moderate vote? I think, we will never see a Primary like this for a long long time… All exciting stuff.
151 - Obama is getting GOP suport, it’s there in the polls. With McCain and Obama party affiliation starts to fracture, with Clinton it is shown to stay more as it was.
151 - Fair point on the popular vote, but I still think it is unlikely she will win many of those by much.
Also, you finish 151 with “I think, we will never see a Primary like this for a long long time… All exciting stuff.”
After allowing 50 states and 6 territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, DC, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Democrats Abroad - any others?) to choose the nominee, can you really see years where there is not a President or Vice President incumbant going back to the old model of win Iowa and New Hampshire and that’s it?
I think this contest has been great for the Democratic party - for fundraising, dominating news coverage, registering voters, building state parties where they normally don’t bother, getting 11m watching their debates, paying for local media buys, mobilising the netroots etc etc.
Imagine Obama wins two terms as POTUS - can you see the 2016 contest being decided just after Super Tuesday? I can’t - I think the public will refuse to write off a candidate too early, because they will want to see this sort of primary again, where everyone gets a turn at voting. The media love long campaigns spending money on advertising, so they will help - this could be the beginning of a new trend.
Now I know that no-one will read this, but ‘Hey’ from the Twin Cities. Picked up the rental car from the airport and the clerk was outrageous. He asked what I thought about Brownstuff and Tony B Liar and then went on to the most awful attack on Bush and the Iraq war and asked me what the hell was the UK doing supporting the biggest mistake since WWII.
I told him what I thought of all three and he sure was tickled pink, so here we are in the upper mid-west and people are still talking about Iraq. I guess this guy had a job so maybe he wasn’t being hit as hard as many are.
Off to the Lodge tomorrow and to watch H Rodham Clinton’s victory in PA, on PB.com [we don't bother with tv as it's shite.] About 8-10% I’d say, but if the pattern continues it could be a little more. However it won’t help her because most Democrats have voted already. And guess what? It wasn’t for the dead parrot.
Malcolm
Morus, I don’t think Obama will win in Novemeber, never mind two terms. He’s quite frankly promised a total change in Washington, and everyone older that 40 knows its never going to happen.
Secondly Florida and Michigan..? Big problem here for the democrats.
If you look at polling for Obama vs McCain, he’s totally lost the key states already - And McCain could really hit hard. McCain could do well by visit New Jersy and ESPECIALLY Mass - Some polling has it withing 2% in both those