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Will the happy times return to Number 10?

April 21st, 2008

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The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and reports a big reversal on last month.

The figures which, unlike the chart from the paper, has comparisons with the last published ICM poll are: CON 39% (-4): LAB 34 (+2): LD 19% (+1)

So instead of a poll suggesting a substantial Tory overall majority we are now back in hung parliament territory with Labour and the Tories competing for top spot on seats.

This polling change could not have come at a better time for the Prime Minister as he seeks to face the rebellion over the 10% tax rate.

Cameron, however, has a bigger lead on “who would make the best PM?”. He gets 37% against 29% for Brown and 8% for Nick Clegg.

This is one poll and we’ll have to see whether it is the start of a trend showing Labour doing better again.

But remember Smithson’s rule: A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.

Mike Smithson






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