Will the happy times return to Number 10?
April 21st, 2008
The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and reports a big reversal on last month.
The figures which, unlike the chart from the paper, has comparisons with the last published ICM poll are: CON 39% (-4): LAB 34 (+2): LD 19% (+1)
So instead of a poll suggesting a substantial Tory overall majority we are now back in hung parliament territory with Labour and the Tories competing for top spot on seats.
This polling change could not have come at a better time for the Prime Minister as he seeks to face the rebellion over the 10% tax rate.
Cameron, however, has a bigger lead on “who would make the best PM?”. He gets 37% against 29% for Brown and 8% for Nick Clegg.
This is one poll and we’ll have to see whether it is the start of a trend showing Labour doing better again.
But remember Smithson’s rule: A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.
Mike Smithson
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This is such a dramatic movement on ICM’s last two polls that I’d treat this as a rouge for now and wait and see what the next YouGov poll tells us.
I can think of absolutely no reason for Labour to go from an 11-13% gap to just 5%.
Reposted from last thread:
Bear in mind also that ICM (I believe) conduct the field work for Populus, who then process it themselves. From memory, I believe that the Populus process diverges it from the ICM one to the tune of (usually) a reduction in Tory lead of about 1-2%, so the very recent Populus set alongside this ICM shows that one is very likely to be rogue.
Whichever one is rogue we can argue about
(Bear in mind also that a rogue poll is no judgement on a polling company, merely the inexorable rules of chance ensuring that every so often the polling company rolls snake-eyes on its sample)
1 - well it is certainly helpful for those in rouge
3. Absolutely.
1 Except, as the Guardian indicates, more Labour voters say they would vote or, as its ICM which weights on propensity to vote, become more likely to vote - so Labour share increases.
How does it compare to the last Non Guardian ICM poll. Is there divergence over time between ICM for the Guardian and those not
5. Why would that be then? Because theres an actual election looming closely?
Do we have the fieldwork dates compared to last populus.?
Rogerh
I think Glover is right. Economic news has been a lot less frightening in the last month, so Brown reputation looks a better again. But have the underlying fundamentals really changed?
If there’s a real recession, Brown’s in real trouble.
From earlier thread :
“ICM/Guardian result is bizarre. Apparently fawning on US TV shows, being upstaged by the Pope and doubling the income tax band of the poorest are all vote winners.”
Central probabilistic forecast ICM
Con 280
Lab 286
LD 48
Nats 15 (SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Hung Parliament: Labour 37 short
6-poll moving average
Con 313
Lab 256
LD 43
Nats 17
Oth 3
NI 13
Hung Parliament: Tories 10 short
Labour only require a 1.8% swingback to draw level in seats…
6. The last non Guardian, ICM poll was;
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 2008-04-04 Con 43 Lab 32 Lib 18 Con lead 11
5. But given current political circumstances, and what we know voters are saying to MPs and canvassers, that’s practically bizarre. There can’t be many out there saying “I’m basically Labour, I was wavering, but now I’m firmly behind you because the Tories are being so opportunist over the 10p tax band.” If that was the case the PLP wouldn’t be in the state it is.
re 11. Rod - moving averages are a nonsense.
Hmm. I was slagged off in a previous thread for pointing out that not everything might be rosy in the Tory garden come 2010. Seems it’s not even that rosy now.
The Tory astroturfers may not like it but once they and their Party start getting complacent, think they can roll out policy for Mail and Telegraph readers to fall in love with Cameron to, etc. because they’re a shoo-in for the next election, they may find that people only turned to Cameron because they thought he was a centrist, and then they will start fighting each other.
2010 is still up for grabs.
How on earth can Labour, after suffering perhaps their worst ever week, be pulling their deficit back? I’m reminded of a poll conducted in the middle of the 1997 GE campaign which showed the Conservatives claw back about 15% to be just 5% behind, this despite being hammered in the press over Europe et al.
That was a fantasy poll too… I imagine this one must be too.
13 - Indeed the PLP are probably being so frenetic because they have spent a nice recess on the doors and are not happy with the results and those in marginal have done a fagpacket calculation and worked out that they are not likely to win their seats.
12 Do you have say last six Guardian and non Guardian ICM polls side by side as comparison
Mike,apologies if this has been posted before but a nice plug for pbc in The London Paper (A giveaway) on page 12 headed “you can’t be serious gov” in which you are described as a “political betting pundit”
Good one
The interviews with shell shocked Labour MPs returning from canvassing tell a different story. They appeared to be talking melt down. Hard to reconcile with big Labour bounce.
18.
All ICM’s polls since the general election can be vieewed here;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm
I’ve now heard both Cameron and Osborne speaking about Brown’s decision to remove the 10p tax rate. As you would expect neither would agree to reinstate it if elected and as a result both sounded like a couple of used car salesmen.
I’m not suggesting enough people heard these interviews to swing the ICM poll but the public are reasonably astute at picking up the scent of bullshit. This plus the dreadful image Boris is giving the Tories outside London could well explain the recent closing of the gap.
Regarding the last thread, which I didn’t get chance to post on. If it’s in single figures then the race turns towards Obama, if it’s 10-15% we carry on pretty much how we are now, and if it’s over 15% Clinton becomes right back in it. I’m suspecting it’ll be about 9-10% Clinton.
Wait for the next ICM poll now that Cameron is back in the news. I haven’t seen Cameron in the news over the last few days untill this morning on BBC breakfast.
Last guardian ICM(late march )had Con 42%.Lab 30% ,lLib 21%.Last ICM for Sunday Telegraph early april had Con 43%,Labour 32%,Lib 18%.
Rogerh
re 16 You cannot say that. A poll is a snap-shot using a particular methodology at a particular time. This is what ICM has come up with and we can only judge it in a month or so when we have seen other surveys carried out in the same way from the pollster.
My guess is that because parliament has been in recess we have not seen much of the opposition in recent days - but who knows?
22. The Conservative position is simply that at this stage they can’t give commitments towards individual tax policies, but by the election, they will be able to.
I think thats a perfectly sensible and balanced position.
I heard Osbourne on the radio this morning. Came across rather well. Seemed quite human and pleasant.
Anyway, another poll that confirms that the dog days of LDs polling 11-13% are gone. What’s that - 9 in a row at 17% or above? Party base strongest for a year at least.
re 22. Anything to support your contention Roger about “the dreadful image that Boris is creating”…or is this just another one of your unsubstantiated assertions?
26. Perhaps its the old Conservative supporters being on holiday during the holidays, thing?
This is still a pretty good ICM poll for the Tories. I suspect it is actually just moving back in line with previous ICM polls. IIRC their last poll showed a big movement to the Tories, this is simply rebalancing.
The dynamic isn’t really changed - Tories high 30s/touching 40, Labour low 30s and Lib Dems high teens/touching 20.
Not enough for a Tory win and if Labour can find a way to claw even a couple of points back - likely to make them the largest party.
14. A sweeping assertion, Mike - so far you’ve said nothing to back it up… or suggest anything better.
As I’ve said, it’s an estimate, nothing more, but pretty close. Best guess 41:32:18. Labour continue to indicate they may have ticked up slightly (by about 1.5%)
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40.2% .. Lab 31.6% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 10.2%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 311 seats .. Lab 259 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 32.
Con 15 seats short of a majority.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
[Sound of the Red Flag playing in the background]
26 mike my guess is that this is a weekend poll, which traditionally understates right of center support. As Mark Senior pointed out on the last thread, for ICM to poll on a weekend is most unusual.
But hey, whatever keeps Labour on their current brilliant course!
Any more noises from the PLP meeting? PBers had some interesting snippets last thread.
14. Wouldn’t that disagree with the central limit theorem?
Roger - 22 - “picking up the scent of bullshit.” I think we all know exactly what you mean!
7, 13 Yes because there are elections coming up so Labour, which has been suffering more than most from likelihood to vote, gets a hardening of support. It doesn’t mean other parties have lost support necessarily:
Simple Example - out of 100 surveyed 60% after weighting say they are likely to vote split 24 C, 19 L, 12 LD, 5 other. Shares equal 42%: 32%:20%:8%. (rounded)
Next poll 62% after weighting split 24 C: 21 L: 12 LD:5 other. Shares are now 39%:34%:19%:8%.
So a slight increase in Labour’s propensity to vote and lead halves.
New PPP Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 32% .. Obama 57%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_NC_Release_042108.pdf
re 33. Why six polls Rod when there are only five main pollsters? Is your choice chronological? I assume that some firm’s numbers must appear more than once.
This did happen last year with ICM as well - March poll good for tories, April poll less bad for Labour. Don’t know why but ICM’ polls seem to behave oddly from March to April.
Interestingly it seems that Gordon has added 4 points to Labour since this time last year and Cammo has added 2 points to the tories. Only the cracking leadership team of the Lib Dems have managed to drop support
this is not such a strange poll simply one whose numbers are at the ends of the current range for the parties. Any sane Labour voter will know that come May 1st they won’t be polling at 34% or anything like it.
29. Just an unsubstantiated assertion but surely you don’t think I’m wrong? Even his supporters think he’s a clown and if that’s a representative of Cameron’s NEW Tory Party-God help them!
35. Jonathan. If Labour with a 5% deficit under Brown is a good thing, it just goes to show how abysmally the party has sunk.
Reposting this:
Over in the US, it’s make or break for Hillary Clinton. If she loses in Pennsylvania she’s out. If she wins she is still very much in it.
Both that election and the Mayoral one are exceedingly important. One can’t help but think the Clinton vs Obama race is increasingly looking like the run off for President.
Here at home I maintain that the London mayoral result is going to be of near seismic political importance which ever way it goes. If Boris does do it then I think it will send shockwaves through New Labour. Remember - they won the Olympics for London and this would be a complete kick in their teeth. It would be the first proper victory by Cameron, and would show that he and his group are actually, really, electable. On the other hand, if Ken holds on it will send a shiver down Tory spines. It would suggest that Labour can hold on - that for all the Tory rhetoric and promise at the end of the day Labour can still be back in power.
There is so much at stake here for the narrative towards the next General Election. I can think of nothing to compare with it in a long time.
When was the field work?. Where I live the last 2 weeks has been end of term. Won’t a lot of people hasve been away??
I just cannot see this poll fitting in with the current political climate. The last few days have been horrendous..presswise for Labour.
Moving averages are no more of a nonsense than comparing two polls, either of which could be rogue, and both of which could be at opposite ends of the margin of error, and drawing any conclusions from them.
All moving averages do is put a figure on the expression “a good poll for X, let’s wait and see if other polls confirm it before we get carried away”.
Wow, i can’t believe how accurate SBS’s prediction was last night. It’s uncanny. He got this down to a T.
43. I’m no huge supporter of Boris, but the bloke is obviously bright. I suspect the clown image is very much a deliberate persona he plays to. I don’t think any of us can judge what he would be like as mayor.
I think Ken has done quite a few decent things, but if I was voting I would always vote against his main competitor on one issue: the Mayor of London buying oil off a guy that funds terrorists.
22 - Why only (image) “outside London”. You’re not suggesting that those who are paying attention are actually pleasantly surprised, are you?
45. You reckon a 1% win for Clinton means she’s still in it?
33 Rod. Cheer up old chap …. Mike’s had the hump with our polls since Julia took a distinct fancy to my ARSE.
Jealousy is such an unattractive trait !!
39. Thanks Ted. That put it into context a little more. Is that why a governments poll rating always goes up near to general elections? Its not so much they gain support, but rather their supporters start to say they will definatly come out and vote?
49. Aren’t most of the world’s oil supplies held by those who fund terrorists?
It’s hard to reconcile the movements in the ICM poll with recent events - and the negative feedback from Labour canvassers, including MPs.
My suspicion is that Cameron and Osborne are worried that Brown is performing so badly that he may actually be deposed, thereby ruining their game plan: so they’ve ordered all Tories to tell pollsters they are switching to Labour!
51. Certainly.
This will be about the SD’s and they won’t be sentimental. She is definitely still in it. I’m with Mike Smithson on this one.
44. Matt1: “If Labour with a 5% deficit under Brown is a good thing, it just goes to show how abysmally the party has sunk.”
But the government is midway into a third term. The news is full of apocalyptic visions of Britain approaching a total melt-down and the best the tories can manage is a 5% lead!!
More proof that the political scene is still dominated by Labour. There is no positive desire for the tories. They just occasionally luck-out in the polls with a soft anti-Labour sentiment.
57. Now that really is a fantastic piece of spin.
To paraphrase….
This poll reminds you of a poll you once saw which was wrong.
It just occurred to me with all the row over the 10p rate that those earning over 18500 will be better off as a result of the budget. Could this have any bearing on Labour firming up its support?
The fieldwork was 18-20 April - over a weekend. Does that explain things?
48 - presumably that is my prediction about an aftermath of spin and counterspin from the poll? (And not the prediction of a LD surge by at least 10% that I never got round to posting.
)
60 - Well quite. It’s perverse for Conservatives to repeatedly argue that the middle classes are crying out for tax cuts, if they aren’t going to give Brown any credit for delivering them.
Londoners are generally more relaxed about oddballs. They see them all day every day. Outside London Boris is just a self regarding buffoon who I suspect most people think is a joke. I’d be interested to hear what some of the Scottish contributors or those from the North of England think. Particularly Tories. Where’s Bob Sykes?
17/20: Well, I can’t speak for these supposedly shellshocked others but I’ve been puzzled by the meltdown in previous polls. After a software hiccup we’ve now got our previous canvass returns back, and current canvassing shows up as per normal for the last few years - plus the odd vote, minus a few more, lots of ‘not sure’ from people who voted either way last time. I’ve certainly known it a lot worse in previous midterms, and the poll only surprises me by the sharpness of the correction from earlier polls.
Many Labour supporters are certainly concerned about the 10p band, but it’s a bit like concern over the NHS - even those who are angry with the Government about it instinctively feel we’re more likely to fix it than the Tories. I’ve yet to meet a single voter who said that because of the 10p issue he was going to vote Tory or LibDem, and Cameron and Osborne aren’t carrying conviction with their “It’s a terrible thing but we won’t say if we’ll do anything about it” line. Note that a large majority of *Tory* voters don’t think that Osborne is the best choice as Chancellor: it’s not that he’s disliked, just that he isn’t persuading people.
61 so was last months.
(Sorry 64 was a reply to alex)
60 - but Labour has not got this message across. The public view is probably, erroneously, that the poorest are to be worse off as a result of a tax rise and therefore everybody is suffering a tax rise.
Labour can’t even get a message like “tax cut for most of you” across these days.
64 - But what’s that got to do with anything? Boris has a public persona, carefully cultivated himself many would argue, as an amiable and amusing buffoon. For those who have taken no interest in the London Elections, they are hardly likely to have changed that opinion. Whether they will after he is elected is another matter.
People didn’t used to be too complimentary about Arnold Schwarzaneggar either.
taking an average of polls to try and tease out a trend it perfectly OK, or at least no more dodgy than what most pollsters get up to with various weighting & sampling kludges.
The people who tell you otherwise are usually pollsters who have a vested interest in you commissioning more frequent polls.
68 - People do actually look at their payslips. If they notice that they have had a tax cut then the message is delivered. They’re not going to find a way to imagine a tax rise, when their take home pay has actually risen.
This poll is a rogue. Labour couldn’t have ticked off the British public more over the last few weeks - and their percentage increases!
I actually agree with Roger (last thread). The Patriots Party Election Broadcast is by far the best.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ysT5Du9Q7M
65 - lol, and there was us thinking you’d gone all defeatist on us for the last couple of weeks Nick!
65. Good to have you back Nick!
I hope you button holed gordon and said “look mate - you and your *poor tax* (10p tax band withdrawl) mean even i cannot defend you on political betting! If i did i would have less credibility than Martin Day!
…………
64- roger- as a northerner I can tell you that I think Boris is a baffoon. And I am of course completely objective.
completely O/T- I found this afternoons thread very unpleasant. I do not quite know what it is about pbCOM and weekday daily threads. Must remember not to read the posts here during those periods, even if work does get a trifle boring on occasion.
@65:
“More likely to fix it”? Maybe you shouldn’t have broken it in the first place?
Reading between your not subtle lines, it sounds like you (as a party) are settling into a core vote strategy. Which means you’re preparing to shore yourself against electoral wipeout, which means you’ve decided it’s game over and the opposition beckons.
It’s nice that reality has finally intruded.
So, how many seats will you lose on May 1st based on your robust canvassing?
68. “Labour can’t even get a message like “tax cut for most of you” across these days.”
I absolutely agree. Labour should have been far more combative in the last few days eg. “Children and pensioners were the winners in this budget and we’re not going to apologise for that”.
They could still acknowledge that a correction may be needed for the ‘losers’ in future budgets but they seem to be too meek in the face of any opposition.
Amusing to watch the Lefties seeing this as good news.
Do they really think they have performed so welll to gain in the polls? Let let them be. So that said,
“Clearly a very good poll for Labour”
I’ll add my unsubstantiated assertion to Roger’s. Boris Johnson is a clown. Anyone who doubts this should do a google image using the search term ‘Boris Johnson’. This is NOT a carefully crafted persona. No-one could act the fool so consistently. He is one of life’s natural comedians. And people love him for it. Enough, I’m betting, for him to win.
But that doesn’t make him a good choice for a serious job.
78 ManU can get a result even when they’re having a nightmare. If Labour can manage a 4% swing this week, who knows what they’ll do if they start performing well.
As an alternative to the 10% tax band, I quite liked the suggestion of scrapping any taxes on salaries below 10,000pa.
This would be offest by cancelling the corresponding “Family Credits”.
The poor feel richer and savings could be made eliminating bureaucracy.
80 - Politics is not like football. And whilst Fergie and Gordie share a nationality I think the similarity ends there.
82. At least Fergie can manage somthing! Brown cannot manage to breath properly!
82 Politics is - perhaps sadly - quite a lot like football. The chattering classes version of tribalism. Go the reds.
79 There’s the rub, Mayor of London and GLA is just another level of expensive bureaucracy imposed on the people. It needs scrapping.
If a referendum was held, “Should the Mayor & GLA be retained”, the majority would vote no or abstain. A small minority, perhaps 15-20% would vote yes.
Another opportunity to save money…
79 - But nobody would argue that he’s stupid, indeed not highly intelligent. Which is part of the problem his opponents have - they can’t decide whether to portray him as an incompetent who would wreck London as a consequence, or a (closet?) hard right winger who would be dangerous in a position of power because of what he might do with it.
Two pretty mutually exclusive positions.
84. Are you a socialist?
re 22 Roger it’s the government’s job to find the money to get itself out of Brown’s hole, not the Tories.
Boris is least impressive when he is trying to be serious. He just regurgitates what his minders have drummed into him during many hours of coaching.
He has no drive or ambition for London. I suspect most Londoners know this but still think it would be a bit of a gas to elect him.
I hope for London’s sake that his nurse-maids are upto the job - because he isn’t.
Re: This poll:
WHAT…. THE…. F*CK…. ?!?!?
This makes about as much sense as the sole remaining Waffen SS Panzer Division (numbering a few thousand men and less than 20 tanks) in Berlin on April 29th 1945 single-handedly driving back all 3 Russian Army Groups launching pincer movements upon it with their arsenal of 10,000 artillery pieces and over 3 million men.
I cannot make any sense of it whatsoever. It does not compute. It does not seem plausible.
IT IS ILLOGICAL.
Conscious as I am of “Smithsons Rule” I will not dismiss it as a rogue, but I am stunned with surprise and I will be flabbergasted if this trend is picked up in other polls over the coming weeks.
86. On the right winger front did you see the BNP PB, they were cutting it a bit fine - talk about dogwhistle politics: Under schools they say “Bring back good schooling” - they bring up a book titled “perfecting English” and other such noticeble things that cut pretty close to the bone.
re 77 Gabble they may have been the winners, and I’m not going to dispute that with you, but the fact remains that it’s the very poorest in society who have been robbed to make them winners.
86- a (closet?) hard right winger who would be dangerous in a position of power because of what he might do with it.
If only!!!
92 - Repeated from the end of the previous thread:
How many of the “10p losers” are actually the “poorest in society”, and how many are married women, students etc just taking a part-time job?
87 Yes I consider myself a socialist.
90. Especially given the Boris poll - I don’t see it as being a true level of support. No way! It makes as much sense as some of my posts!
95. Poor you, does it hurt?
No. I think its the pure capitalists who are really hurting at the moment.
98. Under Labour’s higher taxes!
99 Sub-prime comment.
98. Plus those that suffer from the governments “poor tax”, interesting new idea on redistrubution.
84 very true - I’m sure there will be many of us on this site who have heard someone’s views on the doorstep and then been taken aback by who they actually plan to vote for - essentially because that is their team.
101 Poor dear, you really are upset today. Bless.
100. Like Brown’s trip to the united states: Bush sub-primed the PM for the pope! Boom Boom!
Only kidding!
92. Chris A: “…but the fact remains that it’s the very poorest in society who have been robbed to make them winners.”
That’s not a fact - you exaggerate!
The ‘very poorest’ did not reach the 10% tax rate. Many of the ‘very poorest’ are families with children and pensioners who, as you acknowledge, have benefitted from the budget.
“I actually agree with Roger (last thread). The Patriots Party Election Broadcast is by far the best”
Emily. Sorry to split hairs but what I actually said was that ‘the great white patriotic party’s broadcast wasn’t too bad and probably better as a piece of electioneering than the other great white patriotic party’s unfathomable effort which reminded me of Jackanory’.
103. Yesm indeed - it was the nasty man Brown - when he comes on the telly i have to hide behind the chair: So i have more in common with Nick Palmer than you might think!!!
80 – The current ManU squad is arguably one of the finest ever… it’s strength in depth (the quality of their attacking players in particular), flexibility, adaptability, Ferguson’s tactical astuteness etc… make it so… comparing it to the current Labour Party is a bit of a stretch (Villa vs WestHam would probably be more apt).
There is nothing out of the ordinary in this poll. It is quite in line with recent polls…
Can someone do a guest article on “How to read the polls”.
I can’t be bothered…
This is where Labour morale matters: why didn’t the party come out fighting earlier? The position for Labour is worse than it might be because the leadership doesn’t seem to fighting to put a positive spin on things - the rewards are there when they do.
85 - Abstention is not the same as dislike. Besides, the GLA does have a solid raitonale: most of the things it does would be done less effectively by the boroughs, who don’t have the scale or the London-wide vision to make things work; or the government, for which London is one of many priorities.
My experience of tax cuts in pay packets( I was a Group Payroll Manager for 25 yrs) is that its like a shot of whisky. Nice to feel, but the beneficial feeling wears off pretty sharpish and the staff will be back to complaining, when next months pay is the same as last months. If it is the over 18500 a yr effect, then I have every confidence that its lasting effects will be almost zero
One of the reasons the 10p change hits a nerve, is that most people who now earn a lot more than £18500 remember what it used to be like when you first started work, were trying to get on the housing ladder etc. It was bloody difficult and only small amounts of extra cash made a big difference.
The 22p to 20p makes sod all difference to everyone who’s getting it when increases in council tax, petrol tax, real prices increases that are way ahead of Brown’s invented fantasy official index are taken into account.
95. So you think all means of production should be held by collective ownership? That’s surely the definition of socialism.
108. I don’t know the Labour party have seemed quite adept at attcking each other in the last week!
re 105 Well Gabble how much do you earn? And would you want to give away 1.7% of your income. If you earn £9,000 a year you cannot afford to lose £3 per week. Loan sharks don’t take kindly to being told “Don’t worry that nice Mr Darling has said he’s going to do something for me next year”.
@107
“when he comes on the telly i have to hide behind the chair”
Splashback?
95- would still like to think I am a marxist in my more radical moments. Capitalism really is a very poor way of negotiating interactions between human beings- it is not likely to last very long.
108. It’s straying off topic, but Fergie has never been tactically astute. His tactic when losing in the treble season was always take off a defender to put on a forward.
His strength has always been in man management and motivation.
113. No it’s not.
“Socialism is a statement of aims, not means”
You are ignoring things like market socialism and anarcho syndicalism.
112. I quite agree there! I remeber the NI increase in 2003 - a shock that was indeed!
115 - I don’t think £3 a week is going to make too much difference to people on £9000 a year being chased by loan sharks. They’re up s**t creek regardless!
@109:
Mr Crosby, you’d have to reread if such a post existed.
It is not possible to determine in advance if a particular poll is ‘in line’ with current polling. Such a call could only meaningfully made several polls down the line.
116.
113- private property and production really is not a good way to regulate human activities. But we are where we are. As said hasn’t got that much left to run- 50 years tops.
It’s kind of weird. Most people like the idea of tax rise, but only biting at those who earn a bit more than themselves. But here for most people, it will affect only those earning less than themselves.
@119: Market socialism and anarcho-syndicalism are not socialism.
124. Less if the communist Nuclear Bomb us!
9. Yes, the economy is key. If there were to be a recession, then Labour would indeed be in trouble.
But I don’t think there will be. The economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slow rate, and unemployment won’t go up.
I think Brown/Darling’s tough line with the banks was good and clearly they are squealing a bit. The focus is back where it should be, on some of their crappy management decisions. For example, a certain “Fred the Shred” deserves to be fired.
Well i liked my tax cut anyway. Made up for the pension contributions going up.
Tories only 5 points ahead?
This is so much a rogue I’m amazed the Guardian are even publishing it!
@124:
Ah yes, the “collapse of capitalism is just around the corner” prediction.
That’s the odd thing about capitalism. Its inevitable collapse has been just around the corner since its inception.
Socialism is, in a very real sense, the ideal form of government. And in that, was doomed to failure from moment it was conceived.
re 130 I think that you are proving my rule Bob.
128. Only problem with that is the full force of the credit crunch has not hit the UK yet. we are only at the begining of it not the end. The multiplier affects of a contracting housing market and house prices will majorly impact on consumption and consumer confidence.
Hopefully we may just avoid recession but the prospects are not good.
Perhaps the polling didn’t included questions about changes in income tax, council tax, id cards, food prices or fuel. It could be hard to see how Labour have clawed back 5 percentage points, the coverage of Brown’s US trip hardly portrayed him in good light.
On the other hand, would ICM have managed to find anything like this set of figures after the coverage of the non revolt of the PPSs, the bailing out of the banks and Charles Clarke’s missive in the Balls.
126. You could make a better case for anarcho-syndicalism, but certainly not “market socialism”, which is very poorly named.
130, you evidently haven’t read Yasmin Patronisella’s piece today, claiming only gullible idiots and rich white people would vote for Boris.
This is about £50bn for lowering mortgage rates. Two problems with that: will it work (if not the government will blame the banks, the banks will blame the government) longer term how much tax is this going to cost people as the banks risk has been underwritten by the taxpayer. I think like Northern Rock longer term the government will pay for the endless waste of money that their incompetence has caused. So maybe short term Labour will do better, but longer term they will rightly suffer.
131- capitalism is unsustainable, wildly out of control and destroying the planet exponentially. It will have to change, and quite radically.
110 It doesnt matter. If only 20% of the electorate want it and 60% dont care if it is scrapped, it can be scrapped. The saving would be huge.
Labour is like a horror movie. Just when you think the GLC is dead, it gets up and needs another in the forehead.
Please could someone remind me what the margin of error (95% confidence interval) is on the above poll-
Both with respect to the individual party shares and the overal lead.
Thanks
I have just come in from canvassing in a fairly middle class area. At least half a dozen people were berating Labour about the 10p tax rate and probably only one, a recently retired single lady would suffer a loss. It is definitely a loser amongst the “liberal” group of voters who may have supported Labour.
As the ward in which I am working is a Lib Dem / Con marginal it probably is marginally helping the Lib Dems as many of the dis-satisfied group are thinking of voting Lib Dem. However there is a samll loss amongst Lib Dem supporters to the Conservatives.
In this key ward it really is a toss up.
136 - Funny thing about that article. She starts by saying that the choice is between two awful candidates, but then only goes on to say why we shouldn’t vote for one of them. Even though the fact that Boris had negatives was sort of taken as a given from her opening statement, and is meaningless unless compared directly against the negatives of the other candidates.
122. Don’t be contrary now… It is in line with current polling, i.e. recent polls…
73/74: I’ve been around, just not posting more than once or twice a day - too damned busy over the “recess” (ha). Whether this poll is a rogue or not, it’s done one thing - interrupted the boring Tory gloatathon on pb.com. “Labour may fall below 20%”, “everyone dislikes Brown”, “Labour MPs have given up”, etc.
Politics is such a long game with so many unexpected twists and turns - it’s part of its charm - and it’s simply a mistake to either exult or despair.
124. Private ownership and individual entreprenuerialship have been the causes of the biggest leap forwards in living standards and social security in the 12,000 years of civilisation.
136 Clearly that is racist nonsense - and needs to be reported as a Race Hate crime.
Of course, Blair’s PC Keystone Cops will do nought. Good thing that an investigation can be initiated following a Conservative victory - in 2010 - or 2009 or even 2008
130 - how many of the last twenty polls would you call a rogue?
137. Labour are a busted flush! They are just like John Majors weak government: Blair was the poor mans version of Thatcher = Brown is the poor mans version of Major. But Brown cannot even manage that without a poor tax been leveyed on the horny-handed folk who faught from within the Labour party to get representation in parliament for the poor masses……..TuT Tut! Mr Brown has raped/buggered the poor with his arrogance.
A weekend poll processed in one day…yet because it’s something DIFFERENT we go into overdrive
144 - I didn’t deny you’d been around Nick. All i said was that all your recent posts have been somewhat defeatist!
@138:
That’s my point. Its inevitable collapse has been predicted since shortly after it had a name.
And yet…
The thing with capitalism is, it’s a chimaera. A bastard. Through its own imperfections and impurities, it’s able to evolve and be whatever we need it to be, whilst still being called capitalism. Which is why it’s still here, when the pure, perfect, intellectually rigorous socialism collapsed repeatedly under the weight of the flaws of humanity time and time again.
Capitalism succeeds where socialism fails in their assumption about human nature.
Any political theory that assumes a pattern of human behaviour not reflected by a million years of human evolution is doomed to failure, no matter how elegant.
144 Yeah but lets face it Nick (Nick Palmer I am an MP), Labour is pretty rubbish… incompetent, arrogant and corrupt. You have screwed the country and you will face the reckoning.
I do hope you keep your cv up to date.
144, hehe, nice you have time to post now that a semi-good poll for Labour appears.
146, you forgot Golden Rule of Racism - Only Whites Can Do It.
144 Labour may yet fall below 20% we will see if the Lib Dems are clever enough to displace them, with the Rise of the SNP there won’t be a better chance.
Mike
I actually got phoned by ICM (last Thursday I think) and they aske dmuch more than just ‘who are you voting for’ The whole survey lasted around 30 minutes and I was asked about “did i think house prices would drop”, “is coastal protection as important as environmental protection” and somewhat bizarrely “What car do you drive?” I imagine some of this is just to ensure you fit their nationwide profile accurately, but do they release the information about these other questions aswell?
btw. they do weight according to liklihood to vote, as I was definitely asked this question. However, they also ask if u are a member of a political party. If you answer ‘yes’ to this, does it mean they discount your opinions because you’re not a ‘normal member of the public?
107: eh? You feel my posts suggest I dislike Gordon Brown, Martin? Sometimes I really do think our literacy drive has missed a few people…
140. MOEs
Con 3.0%
Lab 2.9%
LD 2.4%
Con lead 5.3% (max)
If I were a Conservative supporter I’d be praying this is a rogue. With the Govt being portrayed by the media as being in meltdown there is no conceivable reason the Tories should not be pressing ahead. If this is repeated, Labour does better than expected on May 1st, and if Boris doesn’t win - then the whispering against Cameron (whose ratings lag behind his party’s) will begin. Surely he should be doing better than this?
144
2 out of the three are fairly close to the mark….
What WILL be interesting is comparing the Boris / Ken polls to the Boris / Ken result. We will know something about what a sustained Tory lead actually means when people get to vote.
If Boris leads by say 7% from now until polling day, but wins by only 1%, what we will make of Tory leads of a similar amount in national polls?
115. Chris A: “If you earn £9,000 a year you cannot afford to lose £3 per week. Loan sharks don’t take kindly to being told “Don’t worry that nice Mr Darling has said he’s going to do something for me next year”.”
A salary of £9000 a year is minimum wage territory. The minimum wage has been raised 17p per hour. On a 35 hour week and 48 week year, this is a rise of £5.95, wiping out the £3 loss.
156 - You said yesterday that you were off to hide behind the sofa.
156 never a truer word spoken in jest.
151 I liked Berlusconi’s quote, what was it? “Only a Retard would vote Socialist”
Lefties berated him for that - but somehow, he ended up with 2 majorities and neither Communists (Nick P’s old pals) nor Greens (boiler suited lefties) have seats in the Italian Parliament or Senate.
Labour should continue with their path. The people are on their side and will reward them.
156.
Not so much dislike him but when you see him do TV like America has talent - i bet you don’t swell with pride thinking that’s my fellow sharp and to the point!
O/T: Came home from work to find a Lib Dem Focus leaflet behind my door. Now, it’s the first time I’ve ever received one, so it was something new, but I just cannot believe that the law allows a political party to distort facts and mislead as much as they do. The Lib Dems currently run the local council, Burnley, in coalition with the Tories, keeping out Labour after 30 odd years’ entrenchment. Yet in spite of this, the leaflet repeatedly proclaims that the Lib Dems now “run the council” and “have taken control” and not only makes not one mention of the fact that they are in coalition with the Tories, it repeatedly trumpets the fact that “the Conservatives can’t win here” and “Voting Conservative could let Labour sneak in again”.
You’d think with the council currently comprising 18 LDs, 17 Lab and 6 Tories (plus a few random BNP scum), they’d be focussing on those 17 Labour councillors and the years of socialist misrule. No, the Tories are public enemy No 1 it seems. (Now, there’s a surprise)
Are they that worried about a Tory resurgence in a pretty barren area for Conservatives, who have no prospect of doing better than holding their 6 councillors in 2 affluent wards (which could conceivably go Labour if the LDs did win over enough Tory waverers), that they have to peddle untruths? Or are they just a grubby little bunch desperate to get as many votes as they can, whatever the implications? A real contrast with the local Tory leaflets which accurately reflected the contribution made by their 6 councillors to the Lib Dem-led executive.
I now understand the reason they are called “Liberal Democrats” - ‘democrats’ in a ‘liberal’ sense of the word…!
Any thoughts, Mr Senior?
158, this is the lowest Tory lead for some time. I am anti-Labour, so you might expect me to say this, but I think this poll should be discounted. It makes no sense given both recent events and the press coverage of them and it also falls out of line with previous general polls, whilst maintaining a distinctive pro-Labour, anti-Tory Guardian trend.
The government is having to fight to have its Budget passed by its own backbenchers. A rock solid administration this is not.
@156:
No, your posts suggest that you are resigned to him until he loses the election in 2010.
There was really no other way to interpret your last post beyond “we’re shoring up our core vote, but we’re not going to be able to do any better than that”.
And our core vote kept us in oppo for 13 years, and I’m pretty sure our core vote is bigger than yours. We’ve been taking special pills.
Bob Sykes. Look at post 64. (Though last time I asked a Yorkshireman about someone he said “E B a bugger E B”!
158 Labour may get short term respite if mortgage rates come down, if not then I think you will be praying for the survival of your party.
@166:
“Any thoughts, Mr Senior? ;-)”
I’ve not seen any evidence.
167. No Labour were only 3% behind a couple of weeks ago!
151. The main problem with socialism isn’t that people don’t always act selflessly, it’s that it assumes a few central planners have perfect knowledge about the current and future demands for every product.
Which is ridiculous, and should have been obvious from the very beginning.
139 - But the saving wouldn’t be enormous: everything the GLA does would simply be done by an alphabet soup of different agencies and organisations. The inefficencies caused by poor organisation could even outstrip the direct savings you’d make for Assembly members and staff who cater to the functions of elected members. Besides, now most people in London have seen the benefits of the GLA, there is little prospect of a result which is worse than the 1999 referendum.
169. He should be alright under Labour then due to the Buggery laws!
172, that wasn’t the Guardian/ICM one, was it?
Rollocks. I thought I’d made an imp