Is this the man who is always overstated by the polls?
April 22nd, 2008
When a 48% polling lead became an actual 11.9%?
My most profitable political wager of all time up to eight years ago was a spread bet that Ken would get less than 50% in first preference votes in the first London Mayoral contest. For all the signs were that Ken, then standing as an independent, was going to overwhelm his opponents by a staggering margin and many took it as read that he would get 50% on the first round.
For the evidence from the last two elections is that Ken’s supporters appear much more willing to say they will vote for him than in practice they actually do.
The pie-chart on the right from March was from six weeks before the 2000 election when Ken’s share topped the 60% mark with an amazing 48% lead over the person who was to finish second, the Tory, Steve Norris. As it turned out when the votes were counted Ken’s eventual lead on first preferences was just 11.9% - some difference.
It got a little bit better by polling day but not much. The eve of poll survey in the Evening standard had these shares Livingstone 51%: Norris 17%: Dobson 16%: Kramer 12%.
Compare those numbers with the actual votes Livingstone 39%: Norris 27.1%: Dobson 13.1%%: Kramer 11,9%. So Ken’s eve of election polling lead was 34% which was almost triple what actually happened.
In that election every single poll from every single poster that carried out surveys came up with huge over-estimates of Ken’s margin over the Tory.
Move on four years to 2004 and most of the polling was done by the internet pollster, YouGov. The only survey by a phone pollster produced an inflated margin for Ken though not on the scale of 2000. Thus the equivalent to yesterday’s YouGov survey had Livingstone 41%: Norris 27%: Hughes (LD) 17%
The final YouGov poll four years ago had it at Ken 37% to Norris’s 26% on first preferences. In the election the shares were Ken 35.7% to Norris’s 28.2%. So the predicted YouGov margin was 11% compared with the 7.5% that actually happened.
It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves when we see current polling predictions in the 40s that last time Ken’s share of the first preferences was not much more than a third.
My default position on the 2008 race is that Ken is still enjoying a polling bonus and if the final surveys have them level-pegging I would still bet against him.
Latest betting prices are here.
Mike Smithson
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I think when people get into the polling booth/get there postal vote and the ballot reminds them there umpteen choices other than boris ken we’ll see much lower first preferences for the first two.
2. Mike, your analysis makes sense IF the 2000/2004 pattern repeats itself.
But is it possible that a new pattern will emerge, because unlike in 2000 & 2004, in 2008 Livingstone certainly does NOT look like a winner as E-Day ‘08 approaches.
Might this have an impact on voting decision, potentially in favor of KL?
1 - Disagree, as am guessing the dynamic of a potentially tight finish between K & B will tend to attract voters to one or the other.
Though personally if I had a vote, would give my #1 pref to Brian Paddick. Partly because of the factor mentioned by Old Yaller Sub, partly because the Irish in me responds favorably to an honest cop with a good heart. Don’t care if he’s hasn’t got the charisma of a brillo pad.
IF Boris actually is elected, then think he’s got strong potential to give the Mayor of NYC Jimmy Walker a real run for his money! (The prospect alone is enough to justify getting the DVD of the great Bob Hope biopic.)
164 on the last thread.
“Frankly Hillary has a better change of winning Arkansas, Tennassee, Kentucky, than Obama has winning any red state, other than North Carolina.”
She only does well in Arkansas because Bill is thought of favourably there. The Democrats don’t have a chance in hell of winning Tennessee or Kentucky. As for other red states, Obama will also likely take West Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado.
“The fundamental problem is that he HAS LOST Florida & New Hampshire, this gives a huge amount of electoral votes to John McCain already.”
The idea that a primary result between two Democrats suggests anything about hwo they would fare vs a Republican is ridiculous.
“There is no gurantee he will win Ohio either - Frankly, the swing states now are Colarado and Ohio. Missouri is a complete loss for Obama, it’s very rural and he’s had far too many misteps to win back that trust.”
There’s never any guarantee in a swing state, but when the majority in rustbelt states like Ohio agree with the Democrats on healthcare, the economy and Iraq, McCain is in serious trouble.
“Like I said earlier, the routes to Clinton’s success are very open with Florida, Ohio/Penn, Nevada/New Mexico Arkansas. This isn’t the case with Obama. Obama’s electoral map is identical to John Kerry’s plus Iowa.”
All polling shows this to be the reverse of actuality.
“Making solid democratic states like NJ/Mass more marginal, giving Florida to republicans solidly and having no chance of winning any of the southern states that he win in his caucus/primary votes.”
If you think either NJ or MA will be marginal you are in cloud cuckoo land.
“There are widespread insecurities about Obama, which seem to be getting worse the more we know about him.”
Actually the biggest insecurity was that he was a closet Muslim, and that is going away. All the rest are guilt by association and, although the GOP will try to bring them up, there’s little meat that can be added to any of the hit stories so far.
Ted, wrt Bob Spink, do you have a link to the story about him joining UKIP?
Re; previous thred.
White Men of Pa are indeed critical to the outcome of the PA primary. Because it appears they are overrepresented in the remaining undecided.
There’s a lot of guys across PA who are lunch bucket Dems highly unlikely to vote for a Black guy for Harvard in the primary BUT who are also allergic to Hillary. On the same theory as the political billboard a friend actually saw back in the ’90s alongside an Oklahoma highway, aimed at a controversial woman candidate: “Life’s a bitch - why elect one?”
IF these guys vote in the Dem primary, it’s almost certainly for Clinton. What the Obama campaign is hoping, is that all the talk of guns and sportsmen will make these guys decide to go hunting instead of voting.
Multiple response thingy
I suppose the local authority might check the dates of birth for all postal voters, but I doubt it.
It is a legal requirement that they must check the d.o.b. Any which don’t match must be rejected.
Dib Dib Dib as the scouts say!
No they don’t! They say “Dyb dyb dyb”. I never was one, but at least I understand the concept of what an acronym is.
Left-leaning father in law is (voting for Boris) and he’s a former communist!
That cancels out me then. I voted for Norris last time.
A bill which actively discriminates against straight people? Why can’t a man and a woman get a civil partnership?
Because they already have access to marriage as an option.
But it is an alternative vote!! You can give Livingstone your second choice. Really I despair will UK voters ever understand PR?
Will people ever understand that AV and SV are not PR?
SV is about the worst voting system you could possibly devise.
Apart from FPTP.
(Although it would be possible to “devise” all sorts of silly systems which are not actually in use - such as Second-Past-The-Post in which each voter has one vote, and the winner is the candidate with the second most number of votes).
Thankfully the site seems to have lost my slightly overwrought defence of Hillary but I have watched that ad 7 times and can’t find a scintilla wrong with it. I suspect some posters’ criticism is based on the fact that (a) it’s going to work (b) she refuses to roll over and die.
What’s wrong with it is that it persuades people to vote for McCain rather than Obama, not for Cllinton rather than Obama.
3 Concur with your sage wisdom. And avoid the new hemlock milkshake at Wendy’s.
4. Daily Telegraph website is reporting Spink joining UKIP but I couldn’t find any other sources.
6 - Your wisdom is decently looney as per ususal.
Re: the Clinton ad, clear that she’s making a play for the same White men that Obama is hoping to enroll in his P-Day hunting club.
Think by now that voters are becoming inured to Hillary’s trashing of Obama. Even considering that Shankesville, PA was a warzone on 9/11, really don’t think flashing pictures of Bin Ladin is any more scary than footage of Pope Benny. Not unless the It’s hurting her more than him right now, methinks; for every one rust belt Dem she wins over, she risks losing two suburban feminist peaceniks.
8 - is he taking his bulldog?
6 - re the ex-Commie voting for Boris, actually believe that would be the logical vote for the still-committed comrade. As the election of Boris will clearly be a blow to the stablity & crediblity of the existing capitalist (or any other) order in London. Whereas Livingstone is clearly a social facist insect who has sucumbed to the fleshpots of plutocracy.
Completely OT. I’ve just looked at Guido’s blog for the first time in about 6 months and it’s complete rubbish! I always thought it puffed up and self important with dreary contributors but now it’s become a pastiche of itself.
Has anyone noticed or is it in its death throes?
Back on topic, I think Mike is right. If, by this time next week, Johnson has a 0-6% poll lead, then I think he’s probably home and dry, particularly when you take into account that the Conservatives are just working much harder on the ground to win this than Labour are. I’ve said it before, but every voter in wards like Hampstead Town or Winchmore Hill who switches from Labour to Conservative means that Livingstone has to get out two new voters to make good the loss. I don’t see how he can do it.
There are still no polls on the London list, but Yougov’s second preference question for the Mayoralty may give a clue. 13% give their second choice to parties that are to the Left of Labour and Lib Dems, and 14% give their second choice to parties that are to the Right of the Conservatives. Many voters will regard their List vote (wrongly, but understandably) as a second preference vote. If my guess is correct, you’d be looking at 3 seats for the Greens, 1 each for BNP and UKIP (maybe another if the English Democrats poll much worse than 3%).
WRT ICM, it shows how the goalposts have shifted that a 5% lead is now considered poor for the Conservatives. Given the results of other polls, the run of bad news for Labour, and the sort of feedback I and others are getting when canvassing, I’d have to say that I think the real Conservative lead is somewhat bigger than this.
8 Thanks. Castle Point is a very right wing constituency, so Spink will likely poll well at the next election, although I’d still expect the Conservative to take it.
10. I think you’re mixing him up with Andrew Rosindell. I’m sure he won’t leave the Conservative Party (I think he’s one of the whips) although if he ever did, I’m pretty sure he’d hold Romford.
SPIRIT OF ROBERTO CLEMENTE
This is a minor but not altogether insignificant factor on the morning of the Pennsylvania Primary. Certainly in Western PA.
Because Roberto Clemente was one of the greatest baseball players who ever lived, and the without doubt the greatest who ever played for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Indeed, the Pirates baseball park features a statue of Roberto Clemente
http://pittsburgh.about.com/od/pictures/ig/pnc_park/clemente_statue.htm
For those of you who have never visited Pittsburgh & environs, it’s not the kind of place you’d be expecting the populace to be putting up statues of a black man. Especially a Black man with a funny name and a foreign background who was proud and outspoken and occasionally outrageous.
Yet Clemente broke through that because he was just so good. And because it was obvious how much he cared, how smart and talented he was. And because he was a natural leader with a will and passion that simply made things happen. As he proved in not one but two of the most amazing of all World Series victories.
Even guys who opened their cans of Duquesne Beer with their teeth could appreciate that. My “Archie Bunker” steelworker uncle certainly did . . . and no liberal he, to put it mildly.
But the thing that really put the seal on the legend of Roberto Clemente, especialy in Pittburgh and also in his native & beloved Puerto Rico was when he died only months after the world series. Most especially, because he died in a plane that crashed trying to fly relief supplies to the people of Managua, Nicaragua which had been devastated by an earthquake.
Roberto Clemente was always a young man in a hurry. Always different, with an intensity and spirtuality and personality that were truly unique. On that particular day winter day, he was in a hurry to help the poor people of Nicaragua.
That plus the World Series wins is why there are people from Altoona to Zielienople - and San Juan - who think that Roberto Clemente was some kind of baseball player saint. They are right.
Must be worth at least 1% for Obama in Allegheny Co and the rest of Western PA.
14 - I stand corrected and enlightened; a two-fer!
The famous saying about Pennsylvania is that it’s a redneck sandwich - with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at both ends and Arkansas in the middle.
That being said, I can see Obama making more of a go at this than Clinton in the general election simply because he’s a guy. Just get him out there chopping wood or going to stock car races or doing whatever it is real men do when they’re being real men.
12 - Roger, Roger, Roger. Desiring something doesn’t make it so. I doubt Guido will be too worried about your prognostication.
Just read last night’s thread - it was like the deaf talking to the blind (well actually it was more like the deaf and blind talking to the sane ;))
I find it amazing that people claim they come on here to debate with people, and yet seem so incapable of reading what other people write. I didn’t see a single person defending the Government over Kelly/Iraq, didn’t see a single person in favour of the war, and yet that didn’t stop the manure being tipped over them.
All i saw was two people pointing out that Gilligan was sloppy in his journalistic methods, and negligent in the protection of his sources, both of which are apparent from the outcome. Much as people don’t like it the fact is that on an issue that could have brought down the Govt, the Govt got off the hook. And a great part of that is because given a potentially huge story, Gilligan took shortcuts, didn’t get his story backed up by solid documentary evidence and corroborative sources and didn’t remove the possibility that he could be challenged on his interpretation of the facts.
Whether the story was essentially right, or even fully right, or not is irrelevant. If anything it makes it worse.
Now must go and watch “All the President’s Men” again
14 The Bob Spink story
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/22/nukip122.xml
CLINTON: “WE WILL ATTACK IRAN”*
—-
This is the strangest quote of the month:
“I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” Clinton said. “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”
Source*: http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=4698059
Clinton on Iran Attack: ‘Obliterate Them’
Hillary: If Iran Attacked Israel With Nukes ‘We Would Be Able to Totally Obliterate Them’
—–
No kidding: Clinton is on my Right!!!!
By JAKE TAPPER
April 21, 2008 —
Completely OT. I’ve just actually read one of Roger’s contributions for the first time in about 6 months and it’s complete rubbish! I always thought he was puffed up and self important with a dreary contribution style but now he’s become a pastiche of himself.
Has anyone noticed or is he in his death throes?
22 - “We Would Be Able to Totally Obliterate Them’”
How COULD anybody back Clinton with a statement like this. I thought she was bad, but she even dares to split an infinitive!
19. Typically incisive post alex. If everyone posted as logically and intelligently as you every thread would be a delight to read.
18. James. I’m pleased you like it. I trust you’re not one of the lobotomized monosyllabic contributors who calls themselves ‘anon’?
23. Roger mistkes his opinion for the truth and majority belief. Common trait in socialists. Must be off, got a couple of thousand of 10p tax leaflets to get out to low income households. Thanks Gordon.
24
W. Bush had to prove to his daddy he was not a kid anymore.
Hillary might wanna prove she is The Man now…
Her Pres. Might be even worse than W. Bush.
McCains is looking now like a dove, in comparaison to this New Hillary…
There are no words to describe how much I’m praying that you’re right!
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
24 - actually, there’s nothing really wrong with a split infinitive. Fowler merely said they were ugly. Sometimes they are necessary; “Your job is to really motivate people” is changed in meaning when the word “really” is moved.
I blame the frequency of split infinitives on Star Trek (”to boldly go…). Just as I blame the fact that “jail” has all but superseded “gaol” over the last 80 years on Monopoly.
sorry to go o/t but about the poll in the previous thread. If The tory lead is cut in a few other polls then I’d start worrying, but as it stands this is the only poll for a while to show the tory lead decreasing rather than increasing (including a populus one from sunday showing a 10% tory lead, the largest shown by them). The crowing of gabble etc just shows how desperate they are for good news, how one poll spectacularly out of place compared to the rest suddenly means everything is hunky dory and labour are on the up. If more polls come out showing the tories being pegged back then Cameron can be worried, but for now the tories are well ahead, and labour are floundering behind being battered from every direction.
4. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7360118.stm
22. I can only think that was taken out of context if not invented. Otherwise she’s loopier than Mccain and it could end up a shoot out between two Dr Strangeloves.
Browsing the Mail this morning, I came across this story,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=561066&in_page_id=1770
During delivery, a Bosnian doctor pulled a baby’s head so hard it was crushed. After being arrested, he returned to Bosnia.
There are a couple of points to extract from this story:
1) The quality of immigrant doctors hired by the NHS - the Iraqi terrorist doctor was rejected by australia as unqualified but acceptable for the NHS
2) Those claiming to escape from dangerous countries are often return when it suits them
3) The inability of the Police to arrest someone without them absconding.
Labour are sponsible for the child’s death.
Back on topic…
I believe there are shy Labour voters out there. Labour liars if you like…
Have we had polls on the London wide vote? I think Ken is more popular than Labour.
2000 was complicated by Ken running as an independent. 2004 YouGov were within margin of error so it is a bit misleading to say “So the predicted YouGov margin was 11% compared with the 7.5% that actually happened.”
Allowing for Labour liars, anything less than about 7% on eve of poll for Boris risks him losing it. Anything less than 3% lead for Boris and I think Ken is safely back in. That’s based on YouGov figures.
33 - a tragic case, but I don’t think we can blame Labour directly for every death at the hands of, or praise Labour for every life saved by every immigrant doctor.
Now if you were to mention the child deaths in Iraq, there is a more direct link…
London: still haven’t had time to get involved myself, but people who have say the Labour electoral effort is now running well after a frankly slow start. But a lot really depends on the national mood - *if* ICM is borne out by others, Ken should have a fair chance.
Castle Point: if I were the Labour candidate I’d think this a pretty promising development.
Test asked yesterday about the PLP meeting. As it was private I’ll just say that it was concerned but the general consensus seemed to be that there was a significant problem to be addressed but wrecking the Budget next week wasn’t the answer.
34. Those are very sweeping statements SBS.
So we can attribute appropriate weight to them, can you let us know you evidence for thinking that there are so many people lying about wanting Ken that it could overturn a 7% poll lead for Boris.
From my own experience I am surprised Ken is as close in the polls so fully expect Mike’s theory that they are overstating him to be proved correct on May 1. However, I have only anecdotal evidene for this.
26 “Roger mistkes his opinion for the truth and majority belief. Common trait in socialists.</i”
Socialism is the fools’ struggle against reality.
26. Woody. Go and read it and come back and tell me with a straight face it’s not rubbish!! His main story is that 5% of mortgagors have borrowed 80% or more of the value of their house. Is this now what passes for ‘biting political satire’?
36 - Nick, Sky reporting right now that ‘up to’ 40 Labour MPs set to support a ‘wrecking’ amendment - is it your sense that this is a significant overestimate?
33. A ludicrous post. You’re an imbecile and I claim my £5!
37 - yes, it’s just a conjecture, I know. If it [i]is[i] shown that Labour voters are lying to pollsters, then we can start to factor that into national polls.
YouGov were last time within margin of error at eve of poll. They may not be this time.
But Nick, what people don’t understand is why you don’t sort the 10% problem. If Northern Rock or the banks can get £50bn from the BoE (us) why cant you find a couple of hundred pounds for 5m people.
I saw part of the debate yesterday. What is the point of parliament if budgets can never be changed.
36 - was Castle Point the Tory seat with the largest majority that they lost in 1997?
Bob Spink can’t be that much loved if he mislaid a 15,000 majority in 1997.
6 - Postal votes and dates of birth. Yes counting staff are being instructed to check signatures and dates of birth. There is a bar code the flap of the ballot paper envelope. This is scaned with a scanning gun (so I am told), and on the screen their signature and date of birth appears. If these match, the flap is detached and put into a basket and the envelope is put into another basket, unopened.
After the ERO’s staff have finished that job, they then open the ballot paper envelopes, which can no longer be identified - although they could be because of a change in the law.
The staff will then open the envelope, removed the ballot papers, check that all three ballot papers have the same numbers and the number matches with the number on the ballot paper envelope.
They then put them into three separate boxes, face down. This is the change in the law which came into force in November 2006. It was not debated by parliament, but came in by statutory instrument.
By placing the ballot papers face down, the ballot paper numbers are exposed to anyone who wishes to see them. It would not take much if you had a list of people with postal votes (which all political parties are given as of right) to work out who had actually voted - and then hassle those who had not voted.
I accept that on polling day tellers ask for numbers, but the elector has the choice whether to give their electoral number or not.
The strannge thing is that elsewhere, in the primary legislation, it demands that ballot papers be placed face up to ensure that no one can see the ballot paper numbers.
22 - In the full context here there is no shocker whatsoever.
‘Clinton further displayed tough talk in an interview airing on “Good Morning America” Tuesday. ABC News’ Chris Cuomo asked Clinton what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.
“I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” Clinton said. “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.” ‘
American-Presidential-Candidate-threatens-assured-destruction-if-another-nation-launches-nuclear-weapons-on-ally-gate?
test
Boris Johnson yesterday revealed the advisers
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/22/boris.livingstone
EVENING STANDARD VS KEN
According to… yes, the Guardian:
—-
“Questions hang over the accuracy of the Evening Standard’s polling which has put Boris way out in front, massively increasing the credibility of the unlikely Tory candidate. Ken and others have claimed that the polling is not reflective of London demographics.
Then there are the the turnout figures. In the November poll YouGov was predicating results on the 70%+ who said they would vote which compares to just a 37% turnout in 2004. Additionally, YouGov collects its data online so it risks excluding the views of people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds with no internet access. These are all legitimate questions which should be asked of the polling data and could be skewing Boris’ lead in polls upon which the Standard has not been slow to capitalise.
While it may be true that the Standard’s readership is made up disproportionately of commuters who live outside the capital and won’t have a say on May 1 (YouGov’s polling says that the biggest block of voters by newspaper readership after weighting are Sun and Star readers), the Evening Standard’s ubiquitous advertising boards denouncing Ken have become a regular sight in the capital and are an incredibly potent tool in the armoury of the anti-Ken campaign. ”
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/olly_kendall/2008/04/news_for_him.html
re 48. Notice the headline on the Guardian story - “Johnson unveils team as Livingstone narrows gap”
The narrowing gap was a reference to yesterday’s YouGov poll which saw Boris with a 7% margin.
The Guardian has suspended its critical faculties for the mayoral election. This great paper which I have ready daily for nearly half a century has become a disgrace.
36 - Nick I suggest you put your trainers on and start running round a few blocks with leaflets. I know of people who live in Kennington, Walworth and Kings Cross (good Labour areas) who have not had one piece of Labour literature. Rumour has it that Ken’s A3 leaflet which I have seen in parts of North London is being delivered by a delivery company. Not ilegal, but a sign of few workers on the ground and money in Ken’s election pot!
re 49. Thanks Phillipe - further evidence that the Guardian has lost it. There is simply no understanding of polling. Rubbish Rubbish Rubbish.
[41] A ludicrous post. You’re an imbecile and I claim my £5
If anyone missed the ludicrous post, here is the link to the story again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=561066&in_page_id=1770
During delivery, a Bosnian doctor pulled a baby’s head so hard it was crushed. After being arrested, he returned to Bosnia.
Roger, are you saying the doctor didnt kill the baby? Or he wasnt an immigrant? Or that his qualifications were sufficient for NHS work? Was the Iraqi terrorist doctor not rejected by Australia as unqualified?
What part do you consider ludicrous?
Socialist are keen on Health & Safety regulations saying “If it saves one life, it was worth it”
How about setting some standards for foreign doctors?
49 - I dont remember Ken Livingstone complaining about You Gov in 2000 or 2004 when he was in the lead.
re 54. YouGov did not exist in 2000.
35 I don’t think we can blame Labour directly for every death at the hands of, or praise Labour for every life saved by every immigrant doctor.
The Bosnian doctor who crushed the baby’s head and the Iraqi Terrorist doctor were not sufficiently qualified to practise in the UK. That is the fault of Labour lowering standards and controls.
The baby died directly as a result of Labour policies.
55 OK, accepted on the 2000 election.
56 Similarly the Chinese Cocklers who drowned in Morcambe, died because of Labour Policies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/lancashire/3464203.stm
1) Illegal Immigration leads to workers outside regulation
2) Political Correctness prevents police from clamping down on unregulated and illegal workers.
The Chines Cocklers died of Labour policies.
O/T - Happiness for Opik?
56 Presumably every time a Bosnian or other immigrant doctor saves a baby’s life you will post on here that the baby lived directly as a result of Labour policies .
50- I gave up on the Guardian (and Observer) about 6 months ago after 20 plus years of loyalty- so disillusioned with Labour and all. Have since taken to reading the Indie which I thoroughly enjoy.
Mike. The Standard is now the only London newspaper. It chooses not only to promote Johnson but also to denigrate Livingstone in every edition. It’s also chosen to run an opinion poll once a week which it publishes at a time of it’s choosing. Don’t you think London deserves better? In Russia they complained that Putin’s election was illegitimate because he had all the media. Well this makes London look look like Zimbabwe.
Thanks Mike — for your fantastic blog (without which I would never had entered the London Mayoral market, and made a killing on the Berlusconi victory.
A blog of opportunities, it is!
59 Lets face it Oomper Opik is only known because of the women he gets engaged to.
62 Mike. The Standard is now the only London newspaper.
You mean that The Guardian isn’t published in London? Or The Observer, The Independent or any other big papers?
60- Mark Senior- really those silly posts didn’t need a response. Surely if we have some creatures flapping around the best thing to do is to ignore them.
I find it rather amusing when the creatures, failing to engage with other reasonable posters (your good self obviously included), huddle together and confirm their own very warped way of thinking.
58. The illegalisation of immigration results in the black market and workers being subject to exploitation.
The Chines Cocklers died of due to the illegalisation of immigration.
The Sun backs Boris and Paddick says he could never work with Ken (”the thought of having him as my boss sends shivers down my spine”). Quite big straws in the wind.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/04/the-sun-backs-b.html
I think the shy Tory voter has become more outspoken in recent months, so I’d say the polls are probably closer to the truth this time round.
re 62. Whenever I visit London I am bombarded with several other papers apart from the Standard so the idea that it has a monopoly is wrong. Sure it has a view of the mayoralty but that is no excuse for a quality paper like the Guardian to report things in the way it does.
I have a great respect for Julian Glover, who does most of their polling reports, and I know that he would cover things both fairly and accurately. In fact he’s one of the top two polling writers in the nation press and has insights that very few others are able to impart. Yet other writers are allowed to distort things which is a disgrace.
68
Brian Paddick: “I could work with Boris but I couldn’t trust Ken”
““I think Ken is getting very tired”
“When questioned about rumours that Mr Johnson may be prepared to offer Mr Paddick the chair of the Metropolitan Police Authority, Mr Paddick would only say: “He hasn’t put it to me.””
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3792709.ece
62 Thats because Lefty papers dont sell.
Robert Maxwell tried to kill the standard with a cheap daily - even giving it away for free. His Socialist inability to understand economics and reality ended with Mirror workers denied their pension.
60 If a qualified doctor does his job - he/she gets paid for it.
If unqualified doctors are being given jobs in the NHS - and then go on to become terrorists or crush a baby’s head - it is a scandal.
Labour is responsible. You are a Labour supporter so you spin.
It seems the Labour party is more important to you than lives.
70 - Julian Glover? Is he not Matthew Parris’s partner. I think I knew him at university; incidentally he was a Liberal Democrat then.
re 69. It is not about shy Tories but about lazy Labour supporters who can’t be bothered to get off their ass and vote.
At the last election MORI had to introduce a special weighting on voting certainty for Labour backers because their “I’m 100% certain” was worth less than a Tory or LD one.
73 - Mark Senior is not a Labour supporter.
75 - You seem somewhat on a mission this morning Mike.
O/T. This week’s PMQ market now available at ladbrokes. Should be able to use the click through via the links on the pb.com home page.
Prime Minister’s Questions April 23rd
What will be the topic of David Cameron’s First Question?
Taxation/Budget 6/4
Other Economic Issues 5/2
National Security/Terrorism/Detention Bill 8/1
Immigration/Asylum 8/1
Education 14/1
Childcare/Family Issues 16/1
China/Tibet/Olympics 20/1
Zimbabwe 20/1
Crime/Policing/Prisons 20/1
London Mayoral Election 20/1
Iraq/Afghanistan 25/1
NHS/Health 25/1
Environment/Green Issues 25/1
Post Offices 25/1
Constitutional/Parliamentary Issues 25/1
ID Cards/Personal Data 33/1
European Union 50/1
Gambling 100/1
Others On Request. Settlement will apply to the main topic of the question. Dead Heat Rules will apply should it cover more than one of the categories listed. Categories should be considered exclusive unless mentioned e.g Questions on Tax will not come under Other Economic Issues, Crime does not include Terrorism.
62 - The poll in the Evening Standard has been published every Monday of the campaign. How can that be publishing at the time of its choosing? Livingstone published a private poll a few weeks ago, because it suited him. Not seen one from him since.
If you think this makes London seem like Zimbabwe, you have no idea of what went on in Zimbabwe.
According to Anthony Wells the Yougov final preferences were three weeks ago 12 for Boris then 8 and now 6. So the Guardian reporting a closing of the gap sounds quite accurate.
79 - Yeah I wonder why he hasn’t published his internals since? Could it be that they are showing something he doesn’t want people to see? He seemed to be happy to sling it out when he thought it was good for him.
Shadsy - very generous 6/4 on a certainty . Cameron must start with the 10% tax rate.
76 So explain why he spins away the crushing of a baby’s head by an incompetent doctor?
Why does he support incompetent & unqualified terrorist doctores recruited to the NHS? because thats what it looks like
Roger, the Evening Standard is certainly anti-Ken, but is it really pro-Boris? I have been amazed at the fair coverage (comparatively speaking!) given to Brian Paddick.
re 36 Nick the radio was reporting that Gordon came across as understanding and sympathetic. Poor you, having to sit there whilst he flashed that nonsensical grin at you!
78, be surprised if he didn’t open with “How many of the poorest people in Britain are to be made poorer by the Prime Minister’s tax changes?”
56, I could be wrong, but I think British doctors have been known to make a fatal mistake from time to time.
To prove your point you would have to prove (a) immigrant doctors make more mistakes than British ones and (b) that immigrant doctors cause more deaths than they otherwise prevent. Of course if we’d trained enough doctors through the eighties and nineties, we probably wouldn’t have to employ so many from abroad.
Being at Birmingham university in 97, I know that the first thing that the government did was to double capacity at the med school there. Since it took a year for the increased capacity to be brought on stream and five years to train a doctor we only have about four years worth of extra doctors. Few of them will have had time to move beyond the junior grade.
So what’s your solution for the NHS – conjure fully qualified doctors by magic, or treat less people?
FROM GMT TO “MECCA TIME”
—–
“Muslim scientists and clerics have called for the adoption of Mecca time to replace GMT, arguing that the Saudi city is the true centre of the Earth.”
“… the English had imposed GMT on the rest of the world by force when Britain was a big colonial power, and it was about time that changed.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7359258.stm
——
Everybody dance now!
68- Is it the first endorsement of a Conservative candidate by The Sun since 1997 ?
@89:
It’s not really an endorsement. More a ‘kick Gordon in the balls’. Gordo lost The Sun over Lisbon. They said they planned to hurt him, and we had no reason to doubt him.
re 78 with the recounts surely going to be announced in the next two days giving victory to Mugabe then Zimbabwe’s got to be worth a punt.
One thing I’m curoius about YouGov polls. I live outside of Greater London, yet receive Carlton/LWTV, and have been invited to a number of these mayoral vote polls, without any question about whether I am eligible to vote. (I assume because YouGov defines region by ITV broadcaster). Do YouGov do anything to correct for their polling of those unable to vote?
90- yesterday’s article was about kicking Gordon.
Today’s article is full of praise for Boris and his proposals.
The shy voter is not party label specific I suspect. As labour is now under the cosh, there are more likely to be shy Labour voters than shy Tories.
re 87 My colleagues have done research on “killer doctors” over the last 150 years. The numbers are going up. That’s because the CPS are now rather more keen to prosecute when evidence shows that finding a scapegoat to blame - especially if the death has been caused by accident or error - is not the best policy. This Bosnian case is rather more complex than just government policy.
You can view the paper here.
90 This will affect elections May 1st.
96 - Not really, Sun endorsements are a bit like the chicken and the egg. Do the Sun endorse and then the endorsee goes on to win, or does the Sun only endorse when the endorsee is already on course to win.
IF THE DEMS GO TO DENVER
IT WILL ADVANTAGE MCCAIN…
…because
“the nominee will have spent the summer angling for the nomination, rather than preparing a general election strategy.” …
“there are organizational tasks in the swing states that might be delayed because the nominee’s campaign is distracted.
.. stuff like hiring staff, getting office space and supplies, preparing a get-out-the-vote strategy, etc.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, the DNC does not have the funds to make up the difference while Obama and Clinton are wrapping up their nomination fight.”
“Third, there is the simple matter of fatigue. I’d wager that John McCain is getting more and better sleep than Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Over the course of four more months, this could make a major difference - for the candidates and the staffs. Obama seemed a bit drained in last week’s debate. How drained will he be if he has to fight Clinton all the way to Labor Day, only to turn around to face McCain?”
Jay Cost
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/04/unconventional_thoughts_on_the.html
——-
97
Correct, but its hardly likely to help Ken..
I would agree with Nick Palmer on Castle Point to some extent: whilst this is good news for the Labour candidate. I don’t expect Labour to win this seat and the present MP says he does not want to fight a by-election. I was amused by the BBC report EX- Tory MP defects! Load of bull! Funny all the same!
BBC will do anything to report something in an anti-tory way! I doubt spink will stand at the next election as i think there was a problem in his seat ass. IRRC?
97 - the Sun just likes to back a winner. The influence is smaller than imagined. But it is a bit like Fox calling it for Bush.
97. Either way, you can bet accordingly. If the Sun drives the result, then put your money on Boris. If the Sun follows the herd and only endorses nailed-on certainties, then put your money on Boris.
Read Polly Toynbee. She managed to find a decent sounding Labour councillor not too far from the office (Slough). But is forced to accept that the “tax the poor” policy of Labour will really hurt them on May 1st. http://tinyurl.com/4yu3l5
That Gordon doesn’t get something as clear and obvious as this is a serious problem for Nick and his mates. Words will not do - Action is required, quickly.
Latest Newsmax/Zogby Pennsylvania Primary Tracker :
Clinton 51% .. Obama 41%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1487
Far too many kooks, cranks, trolls and astroturfers on the comments of PB nowadays. Perhaps it’s time to just read the main article and nothing else.
100 - The Tories have thrown out three MPs in recent months. Quite some going. Any more in the pipeline? A Winterton or two? Labour have lost a couple I think - and Claire Short who imposed her own exile.
Chucking MPs out of the party can never be good news for a party. However, maverick ex-Tory MPs running under a different label do fail - John Browne, George Gardiner…
100. “Divorced ex-wife chooses new partner” - it’s hardly “Man bites dog”, is it?
@102:
It’s The Sun wot did or did not won it!
Does that mean Hilary is back in the race, Jack?
When voters become somewhat disechanted with the party they prefer, they are probably a little more reticent about stating their support. Whether this will affect the Boris and Ken show we have yet to find out.
The problem for Boris, is the GLA is a Labour creation, if and when he becomes mayor he’ll be in, ‘enemy territory.’ The majority of staff, who work there, would not have jobs, without the Labour Party, they won’t be natural Boris supporters. Stand by for lots of leaks etc.
But surely Mike! this should be news you should be headlining?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/22/nukip122.xml
@105:
The word “astroturfer” is rapidly turning into a generic insult, devoid of all semantic content in this place.
Astroturfer does not mean “somebody who supports a different party from me”. OKAY?
In any case, it’s the kooks, cranks, trolls that make this place what it is. At the very least, there needs to be /somebody/ to upset Mark Senior.
106 - Maybe this is a strategy, George Gardiner defected to the Referendum Party, shortly thereafter the Referendum party ceased to exist. Bob Spink defects to UKIP, shortly thereafter….
Whoops! Sorry Mike, this should be your number one concern!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/22/nopik122.xml
Will you be sending a card??
97. The latter.
106. Who knows?!
I do think chucking out people like Conway is a good thing - wonder whether he still turns up there?
106. Brown missed a trick there with Short - he would have been better off trying to get people like that back on board rather than looking for other external Labour stooges! You know Comrade Digby et al - bet he does not worry about the 10p rate!
68. Thats the first time The Sun has come out and backed the Conservatives since 1992. Quite a significant moment I think. They has a great political barometer and I’m sure they sense from yesterday’s YouGov numbers (which despite the way The Guardian is reporting it was an excellent poll for Boris)
that Boris has this in the bag.
New USA Today/Gallup Presidential and Primary Poll :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 50%
McCain 44% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 40% .. Obama 50%
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-21-poll_N.htm?csp=34
“As well as his relationship with the popstar, he is best known for his concern that an asteroid from outer space could hit the Earth.”
Sort of on topic: I was out for dinner last night with a group of high-end City professionals, and the subject of politics came up. To a man and a woman, they were voting for Ken on 1 May 2008 and thought that Gordon Brown was unelectable. There was zero enthusiasm for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems didn’t feature on anyone’s radar.
No election is going to be won or lost in this group, but I was surprised by the virulent anti-Boris, anti-Gordon mood.
76 SBS “Mark Senior is not a Labour supporter.”
No, he just behaves like one.
On a more general theme turning back to the thread and the critically important question of the Poor Tax (10p rate withdrawl) i do wonder whether Brown has reverted back to shortermism with the local elections in mind.
Brown has form on this and i doubt any Labour MP worth their salt would take an assurance from Brown anymore at face value. I think Brown is just trying to use Labour loyality to get the measure through next week and put off looking at the situation until 6 months in the future. I think the (naughty 40) Labour MP’s supporting the Field ammendment know they cannot trust Brown - this could be the end of Brown as PM.
119. No he behaves worse than one!
@119:
The plural of anecdote is not data. And that’s barely even an anecdote.
119. Only joking Mark!
109 Icarus. Not in my view. Watch the delegate count. A ten point lead translates to around +12 delegates. She’ll lose all of those and more in North Carolina in two weeks plus the continuing steady loss of the super delegate aspect of the race.
As you know I’ve been vocal in betting terms that she’s been dead in the water since the Super Tuesday draw. The ‘contest’ has simply moved on state by state as Hillary draws nearer the inevitable !!
HOW TO TRADE CLINTON.NOMINATION FUTURES AFTER HER PA VICTORY?
Clinton will spin her win as a win is a win:
“I object to the notion that we need to achieve a certain standard of victory other than victory,” said Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.”
“Sen. Obama has outspent us 3-to-1 in Pennsylvania…”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9757.html
Now her stock is 1.5$ in https://www.intrade.com/
After her victory it will raise, for sure. As it did after Tx and Ohio: from 1.5$ to 3.3$ — in 5 days.
By how much? How fast? How long before it falls back again?
“If past primaries offer any prediction, a Clinton win will offer her new momentum, money and hope — for a few days.”
“The Clinton campaign’s goal Wednesday, if she wins, will be to argue that Pennsylvania is different. Clinton bases her arguments against Obama on the premise that he’s a weak general election candidate whose flaws, finally revealed, will cut the legs out from his campaign.”
122 - Anecdotes that do not fit preconceptions are more interesting than anecdotes that bolster the conventional wisdom. I had expected the deriding of Gordon Brown, but had expected an even split of support between Boris and Ken. As the sole person there who had the time of day for either Boris or Gordon, I felt under siege. I draw no conclusions from it at all, and apologise for the low entertainment value.
@127:
JOOI, were they traders?
On-topic.
Thanks to Our Genial Host for digging out those 2000 and 2004 Mayoral polls. I also remember that London was just about the worst region for the Tories in their 1997 débacle.
I wonder if Ken wasn’t elected and re-elected on the votes of Tories who saw the Mayoralty (which, on the whole, they neither wanted nor cared about) as a way of kicking their Party for electing leaders who couldn’t possibly win a General Election. I’ve never bought Simon Jenkins’ line that London is a naturally Labour city. (Particularly strange from a Tory (of sorts) who was one of the biggest promoters of the idea of a London Mayoralty.)
The question of staff loyalty at City Hall is also interesting. They are the only public servants who work for an individual, not a corporate body, which fits ill with British model of public service. (In the States, it’s accepted that if the President, Governor or Mayor who hired you goes, so do you.) Conflict is possible, bit I don’t expect that much - bureaucrats tend to identify with policies rather than personalities - ain’t they quaint? - and truth to tell Boris’s will be much what Ken’s were, funding to minority ethnic groups always excepted.
Morning all
Quick thought on ICM before I consider London Mayoralty (and all the non-Londoners can tune out): ICM has in the past produced rogue or outlier polls and this may be one. I’ve always found it the best pollster for trends but it has done this before and we’ll just have to see if it is the start of a trend.
Right, then, London - Boris is going to win. It’s not a result from which I derive any pleasure except it will mean the end of the rule of Ken Livingstone. Analogies of frying pans and fires seem quite apposite here.
Slightly o/t - I met Brian Paddick on Saturday evening in the west end. He was “campaigning” (and I’ll come back to that) in Old Compton Street (no sniggering at the back !). Mrs Stodge and I with a few friends were going for coffee after enjoying some Chinky scoff in Lisle Street. Those who think of Old Compton Street as being replete with gay bars and/or sex shops forget that it was once part of a thriving Italian community and has a number of excellent coffee bars and cake shops of which Patisserie Valerie is one. We were on our way there when one of Brian’s acolytes asked if we would like to meet the candidate.
I managed to persuade our group we should meet the man and so we did. I spoke to him for only a minute or two but he is an engaging, intelligent and affable man. Indeed one of Mrs Stodge’s friends was so impressed she told us she was not going to vote for Boris but would support Brian.
Paddick’s problem is that while he is very good in debates and speaking to individuals he just won’t throw himself into a crowd or basically “sell” himself. I’ve been agent to candidates like that. The individual voter likes them but there’s no charisma.
I once saw Tony Blair in the mid-90s working a crowd in south London. Now, whatever your views about him politically, he was a master campaigner and I’ve seen very few like him. Boris Johnson is a campaigner - he puts himself about, he accepts the rejections and the insults, indeed he uses them to his advantage and that’s what a politician has to do.
The irony for London is that the best candidate won’t win because he isn’t the best politician and the best politician will win even though he’s not the best candidate. Still, we Londoners will have plenty of time to consider that. Just for the record, I’m not giving my second preference vote to anyone because none of the other candidates deserve it.
127 - worse, I’m afraid: lawyers.
The SUN backing Boris is the second most significant story of today after the fact that Frank Field is reporting the backing of 40 Labour MPs.
The fact that Gordon does his pleading to the PLP after Yvette’s performance and still 40 of the PLP decide to rebel, indicates that both have very poor powers of persuasion.
One Labour MP is reported as saying that Tory MPs kicked out the fuel tax rise under Major and it did not bring down that Govt. We now have MPs looking at the historical similarities and deciding that they are better off retaining their activists support rather than their Leader’s.
Re: 128 - Just for the record, IA, in some parts of London the Tory performance in 2001 was actually worse than in 1997 just as the 1998 local election performance was worse than that of 1994.
re 112. I don’t need to send Lembit a card. He’s coming to Bedford on Thursday for a local Lib Dem party event and I will meet him again there.
At least he’s better than Nick Clegg who was booked to attend the annual dinner a month or so ago but then pulled out.
What ever the outcome, ‘Ken and Boris’ I agree with Simon Jenkins, its been great fun, and brought an interest back into politics.
Those cities that decided not to have mayors have lost out, and should reconsider. High profile candidates, the hustings etc, put a city into the headlines.
78 - Thanks Shadsy - just wondering if Cameron wants to get the PM riled before asking about the 10p tax rate, might he bring up Brown’s trip to US a disaster because he didn’t realise the Pope was going to be there? General process question around the PMs trip or new PR advisor? Just a thought - otherwise 6/4 looks a good bet from where I’m sitting.
88 - That’s going to make me laugh for days!
“One geologist argued that unlike other longitudes, Mecca’s was in perfect alignment to magnetic north.” - classic!
98 - No, going to Denver would be awesome. McCain is getting barely a sixth of the political coverage in the US - Obama and Clinton are mopping up free media that is boosting their coffers and keeping activists fired up through the primary season. 10m watching the primary debate, out-fundraising the GOP 5-1 in some states, registering voters Democrat who were previously unregistered.
Logistics are easy - I imagine Obama’s campaign is already setting up field offices for the General - DNC will tack-on rather than give the candidate a ‘just add water’ set-up. The fatigue point may be true, but battle-hardened young candidates to take on old Senator who hasn’t had to debate or fight for 6 months. I reckon the Democrats are not at a significant loss.
133
Ask him when he marries, does he get both of them? Like those special offers in Tescos, ‘Buy one, get one free’
134 No, Coldstone, the entire process is shallow and trivial. Its “bread and circuses” politics, nothing more.
@132:
General election in mid-June then? Woohoo!
131. Maybe a coach load in number of Labour MP’s will hide in the toilets when the vote happens!
“I’m not giving my second preference vote to anyone because none of the other candidates deserve it.”
I might do that as well. I see that you don’t have to give a second preference.
@138:
Surely the best kind?
BREAD AND CIRCUSES ARE BRILLIANT.
136.
132- the Tory gain nationally in 2001 was 1 seat. There were a few seat swaps, but basically the one net gain was Tatton, where Martin Bell stood down.
The Tories did better than that in London though. Two net gains. Vote dropp