What does Hillary need to do tonight?
April 22nd, 2008
Will she win by a big enough margin in Pennsylvania to stay in the race?
It’s another US primary night on PB and I hope you’ll stay with us to share your news and insights. The voting will close at 1am UK time when we should iget news of the first exit polls.
The critical thing tonight will be how both camps spin it. What percentages will define success or failure? A consensus seems to be emerging that if Obama can keep Hillary’s lead down to 5% or less then it will a great result for him. At the other end a good result for Hillary will be a double digit lead on votes.
My guess is that it will be somewhere in between - and then the spinning will begin.
One indicator is that Obama will be spending the evening at a rally in Indiana - Hillary is staying within Pennsylvania. We shall see.
The final polls (courtesy of PoliticaInsider) were:-
# Zogby: Clinton +10
# SurveyUSA: Clinton +6
# Suffolk: Clinton +10
# Quinnipiac: Clinton +7
# Strategic Vision: Clinton +7
# American Research Group: Clinton +13
# Mason-Dixon: Clinton +5
# Public Policy Polling: Obama +3
Latest nomination betting is here.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
McCain to win in November!
I think she needs to poll better than Ohio - anything less she should call it a day and leave with a win under belt but she will go on.
My absolutely final projection has Clinton landing ‘within the spread’. That’s of course if you think Hillary needs at least 8% but could do with getting into double figures.
http://tinyurl.com/3hed7q
Talk about yer open ended question!
My (polite) answer is, she needs to win by +10% to claim victory. That’s the consensus of the talking heads on my TV. And they make the rules.
Personal prediction: Clinton +6
Now to soothe the savage pber:
RIVERS OF PA
with lovely names:
Susquehanna
Lehigh
Lackawaxen
Brandywine (Creek)
Conestoga
Conewago
Juniata
Kishacoquillas (Creek)
Tuscarora (Creek)
Tioga
Allegheny
Monongahela
Shenango
with less lovely names
Schuylkill
Loyalsock
Conemaugh
class by itself:
Youghiogheny
I think Clinton will win by around 6%.
I started off as a Clinton supporter and was thrilled for her when she took New Hampshire, but over the next few months she just got more and more objectionable. The South Carolina mess, Snipergate and now the completely bizarre ‘obliterate Iran’ comments.
I hope she withdraws after tonight but she won’t. The only thing that keeps me happy is that she’ll never win the nomination after those comments.
I don’t know the answer to the question. All I’ll say is that I find Hillary Clinton repugnant and I hope she loses.
WHAT DOES SHE NEEDS, INDEED?
—-> BUT ALSO: HOW WILL SHE SPIN IT?
My guess is that even if she wins with a margin of 4-5%, her team will try to spin it as a meaningful victory this way:
- By pointing that Obama-Boy out-spent her 3 to 1 in PA.
- That he is not able to reach a certain demographic crucial to win in November against Mac: the suburban stupid white males of PA, Tx, Ohio, etc… less-educated, gun-lovin, church-going…
–That the decisive primary will be in Indiana
- That the more his campaign is unfolding, the more Obama is showing weaknesses, and proof he is not The One You Were Waiting For: by going negative, by distorting her words and McCain’s…
Now the question is: will she be successful in doing so?
Will her spinning works?
Will she be able to manipulate de coverage of a tight victory?
It is well-known: the MSM are in the tank for Obama.
It will thus doubtlessly be hard for her campaign.
But her momentum might last a couple of days.
It can work if Obama says another stupid things that goes viral: another ‘cling to their guns..’, another J. Wright in the closet, or the Rezko Trial, or another comparaison of a Terrorist to a Senator, etc…
—–
Clinton wins by about 9% and the contests goes on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston.. and on.. and on.. and on.. and Ariston..
GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY : ‘ASTRONICAL TURNOUT’
—-
“Mari Schaefer reports:
9:15 a.m.
Voting records seem sure to fall today in the critical Philadelphia suburbs. Already, 136 voters have cast their ballots at the Ardmore United Methodist Church. Judge of elections Kristina Shore said the typical primary draws less than 200 voters in a FULL DAY.
She called the turnout “astronomical.”
Voters appeared to be splitting their support evenly between Sens. Clinton and Obama. That makes sense. Ardmore is a mix of working class voters who tend to vote Clinton and the higher-income types who generally lean Obama. The town also has one of the larger African American populations on the Main Line.”
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/04/astronomical_turnout_in_philly.html
—-
10% is a very good margin ad I’ve stuck to that for a while now. A percent or two less and its ok, 5-6 or below and there will be more voices for her to drop out.
Larry Ceisler* : “SHE NEEDS TO WIN BIG”
“A victory by 10 percentage points or more over Obama would give Clinton “a strong case to make to the superdelegates of the party that she should be the nominee,” Ceisler said, adding that a win by fewer than 6 percentage points would mean “she’s going to seriously have to consider whether she goes on.”
Anything in between those scenarios might have Clinton hanging on for the next primaries May 6 in North Carolina and Indiana, he said.”
* Larry Ceisler is a Democratic consultant in Pennsylvania not affiliated with either presidential campaign
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/22/clinton_needs_big_win_today/?page=2
11 - The news that turnout is “astronomical” in Philadelphia suburbs is actually good news for Obama, not Clinton.
Note that the of suburban Philadelphia that’s within PA is pretty upscale, whereas the burbs across the Delaware River in New Jersey are more downmarket.
Of course there are exceptions, but nevertheless the higher the turnout across suburban Phila. today, the better it will be for Obama.
I think she will get it by 7%. A figure Obama’s camp will be very happy with. Anything up to 10% will be more than annulled by N.Carolina where he will probably win by 20+%.
There are 188 dels. in Pa and 134 in NC. Therefore, with Ind. a virtual tie this is still heading to Obama.
She needs a 18-20% blowout to change the “math” as they like to say.
Pray
C. Cook: “TOO LATE FOR CLINTON — > EVEN IF SHE WINS BY 10 POINTS…”
“It’s almost like she’s stuck in a race that she no longer has a decent chance of winning. Short of Obama completely collapsing, it’s hard to see how Clinton can still prevail but not at all hard to see how she gets outcomes today and perhaps in some of the future events that keep her in the race.”
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/22/clinton_needs_big_win_today/?page=2
re 209 previous thread. Surely dessert is just as much non-U as sweet- the correct word is pudding
Seems as if 10% is a psychological important figure, no doubt.
The fact is Hillary is now showing ‘Presidential Form’. Global Terrorism is the greatest problem facing the world right now. Who cares about the price of a house, when the life and safety of you, your children and your family are at stake.
Iran under the Ayotallahs, and Pakistain under the ISI have been unchecked in sponsoring worldwise terrorism for over 19 years! Terrorist regimes like Iran and Pakistan, are expanding their nuclear arsenals. Regimes like these will use their weapons against the infidel. Sept 11 proves their will to action.
Someone now needs to address this problem.
Hillary is sounding and acting like a real President. If only she had done so earlier she would have won the nomination by a landslide. Obama is pathetic.
OT - WEST VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
“A five-member panel has concluded unanimously that Mylan Inc. executive Heather Bresch, daughter of West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin, did not earn a master’s of business administration degree from West Virginia University and that administrators acted improperly in granting her the degree retroactively in October, according to a person familiar with the report.”
This is an episode that came to light number of months ago. Machin has been well-regarded overall for his performance as Governor (most notably during the Sago mine tragedy of 2006 and its aftermath). Hard to predict how this will turn out.
19
To fight Islamofascism, McCain looks much better than Clinton, does he not?
New Cook/RT-Strategies Presidential Poll :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll/default.php
I predict Hillary to win by 10+, and to tighten the Democrat race.
I think there are two questions here when considering what she needs to do:
(1) What size win does she need for the media to cover the story as a win?
(2) What size win does she need mathematically to stay within reach of Obama and overturn it with superdelegates?
I reckon the answer to question (1) is about 7-8 points. The answer to question (2) is about 15 points.
POLL: 8% OF AMERICANS WILL NOT VOTE FOR A BLACK
——
“There is a percentage of the American electorate who will simply not vote for a black person no matter what his qualities or qualifications.
How big is that percentage? An AP-Yahoo poll conducted April 2-14 found that “about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9761.html
——
Clinton will never spin that sad reality; but it might influence — beyond the math of the race — the undecided super-delegates…
18 - Got that right.
Am guessing that if she’s under 10% margin tonight, Hillary will condemn base-10 mathematics as an Islamo-Iranian plot ; clearly base-5 would be much fairer!
So, the two key questions for tonight… (1) When does voting end in Pennsylvania, and (2) how long will we have to wait for the first exit polls?
As for the margin Clinton needs to ‘win’, I think Socrates in 24 has it about right.
25 - Not exactly news to any American, mon pundit! Have you never visted these shores?
21. The term “Islamofascism” is one of the most foolish used in politics. Islamic fundamentalism and Fascism have different histories, different ideological roots, different structures, different goals, different power bases and occur in different types of societies. All that they have in common is that they are bad and have competed with liberal democracy in the last hundred years. And they don’t like Jews.
I think it was made up by people who don’t have enough cognitive faculty to handle more than one group of “bad guys” in their brains.
It’s amusing how the Obama supporters keep spinning it. They say Hillary needs to win it by ever great amounts as it become clear she is leading by ever greater amounts.
They keep posting up an odd SD vote for Obama, but not those for Hillary. She remains in the lead on these.
Obama’s is probably finished already - whether he wins the nomination or not. He looks too much like Dukakis-Gore-Kerry rolled into one. Even African-American support is falling back (no doubt they were also angered by Obama’s ‘bitter’ statement).
He has the unique designation of being the most left-wing member of the US senate. No other Senator voted to ‘terminate’ live babies after birth (when an attempted abortion did not kill inside the womb). Obama is truly unique.
Why he ever joined the Democrats I will never know. There is nothing democratic about his agenda.
SAME POLL: 15% OF AMERICANS THINK OBAMA IS MUSLIM!
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9761.html
24 (1) result of +6-7% for Clinton is just too close to the cusp to give her any traction. As Yokel says, breaking the two-interger barrier is highly psychological and thus significant.
Also at that level of statewide margin she should start to open up a bit of a delegate margin within PA.
25- doesn’t matter because these people would not vote Democrat anyhow.
A bit like racists here- would feel much more at home in the Tories if they had to pick a big party for obvious reasons- a la BNP for Boris 2nd pref. The Tories are welcome to them.
29
It’s not about be, Shanty Boy, it’s about the effect of such a poll on the super-delegates.
25. The USA is only about 3/4 whites. So thats 6% of Americans.
6% of Americans who have voted either Republican or Constitution Party their entire lives. Not much of a problem for the Democrats.
30
Islamism then.
Socrates - perhaps an ill chosen name given that you are again attempting to defend Islamic terrorism. I don’t think the real Socrates would have been too happy about that.
If you have any doubts about the scale of Islamic terrorism and the threat it represents to global safety watch these.
Fitna 1/2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37w-aXGk8M0
Fitna 2/2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdLMFs4fv4E&feature=related
31. Last December, Clinton had a 32% lead in Pennsylvania. A month ago she had a 20% lead. How is this “leading by ever greater amounts”, precisely?
Last year Clinton was winning the black vote 2 to 1, now Obama is winning it 9 to 1, and against McCain 19 to 1. How is this black support falling away?
38
And this: http://jihadwatch.org/
I expect just a small Clinton win, 3-4% - the Obama margin nationally has stayed large, and locally the Obama spending barrage is likely to have narrowed the gap. I think she’ll keep going anyway (what’s she got to lose?), but against increasing scepticism.
Incidentally, I was struck by ukpaul’s view the other day that Clinton fans here are mostly New Labour and neocons. As someone who supported Tony loyally, I have to say that the things that I had private reservations about were the same things I have reservations about with Obama - the liking for rhetoric, the whole dashing cavalier thing. It’s the old Labour part of me that pulls me to Hillary - just solid left-of-centre values. But hey, Obama will be OK too.
38. How have I tried to defend against Islamic terrorism? I just wanted intellectual honesty in not saying its the same as Fascism.
31: “He has the unique designation of being the most left-wing member of the US senate.” He does? Well, maybe he’s better than I thought.
39
Obama had a surge!
He is so cool, so beautiful, so eloquent, and so…
– left-wing!
“25- doesn’t matter because these people would not vote Democrat anyhow.”
I agree. Far more of a problem for Obama, IMHO, is the reluctance of Reagan Democrats to support him.
35 - yeah, and the affect is zero, because superdelegates they are Americans. Get a grip.
44. I support the Conservatives in the UK. I don’t think any part of Obama’s platform is any more left-wing than that of David Cameron.
45 - Right as rain. Question is, how will they feel by November? Given the state & tragectory of the US economy, think they’ll be feeling like John Nance Garner suporters in Nov 1932: that it’s really not the year to be voting Republican.
42. There are more similarities between fascism and “Islamism” than you admit - the misogyny, the patriarchal attitudes, the authoritarianism, the tribalism, the puritanism, the emphasis on struggle, the worship of violence, the love of weaponry, the appeal to rootless young men, the totalitarian belief system, etc etc …
Islamofascism seems like a pretty useful word to me. If you can think of a better one, coin it.
My prediction for tonight: 9% lead for the Hillz. Yet again - enough to keep her in the race, not enough for her to make a campaign-changing comeback.
42
Or jihadism, if you will.
The fact is: a lot of left-wing, socialist people seems incapable of rekoning that Islam is a fascist political religion for fear of violating the rules of multicultural correctness.
Of course, the majority of muslims are noble peaceful people; but Islam, as a theological-political project, is both suprematist and chauvinist.
41 - ‘What’s she got to lose?’
Answer - the election for the Democrats. I think a swift end to this divisive contest is in the best interest of the Democratic Party - not that Hillary cares much about them.
41. I have long thought old-fashioned Labour voters like Clinton because they like a battle to the death with the Right. They like the idea of struggle and fighting the forces of darkness. Thus Obama’s message of unity and reaching out doesn’t appeal to them one bit.
46
Sorry. Just thought it was useful information.
Wasn’t it Fischer, the German Foreign Minister who used that term fascist? It’s anti-Jew, pro-violence, totally uncompromising and most importantly extremely authoritarian.
I think fundamentalism and fascism are pretty similar, even if not all fascists were religious zealots.
41
Of course it does AFFECT right-wingers.
Your arrogance is the sign to what’s not right with Obama: elitism, condescendant attitude… SNOB.
A lot of right-wingers I know wanted to believe. Trust me.
We were deeply affected by his N.H. speech, after his defeat. So great: hope, unity, new kind of politics. Wow.
Halas: the real Obama despised susburdan poorly America, gun-owning, church-goin
And his view of USA seems so grim, so dark…
… so far from his them of HOPE.
OBAMA THE DESPERATE ELITIST
Mayhill Fowler on ‘Why it was always too late for Hillary’ :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/hillary-clinton-in-pennsy_b_97909.html
52. Read an interesting article saying that the Left likes a fight between a warrior and a priest. Clinton is the class warrior, all struggle and fight and fire and old testament. Obama is the priest, articulate and intellectual and new testament.
The theory was taken from a book called the political brain, haven’t read the book yet but looks an interesting read, specially for Pbers.
50. I’ve just been for a walk around Regent’s Park.
There was a Muslim couple by the duckpond - a smug young man lounging around in his jeans, waiting impatiently for his wife - in full black burqa, with just an eyeslit - to tighten the black shroud over her head. To make sure she was properly covered amongst the infidels.
I don’t care what lefties think. It’s a repulsive spectacle. I hate it. I don’t know why we tolerate it. Even if the women apparently accept it, I don’t want my daughter to grow up in a city where women wear these horrible bodyshrouds.
If we saw a white man impatiently waiting for his house negro to adjust his leg-irons I think we would intervene very loudly.
44 - The notion that Obama is the Red Menace is ludicrous. Certainly the ideological differences between him and Clinton are negligible; and he’s often slightly to her right (for example, health care).
As for the fall, the GOP will have difficulties aplenty without trying to sell Obama as a wild-eyed lefty.
55
Was refering to 52. Sorry.
58.
Following on from this afternoons “gay” threads, it may well have been his boyfriend!
Who knows…but yes that clothing is a nonsense…
Clinton may be able to stay in the race with an 8% lead. But her real problem is that she probably won’t close the gap by more than 20 even if she does pretty well. And the number of available delegates is sinking pretty rapidly.
So even if she does well the slope gets steeper.
There’s a bit of the warrior in Gordon Brown - tonally anyway. One of the reasons why I think he was so popular with core Labour voters and so unpopular with the public - solid record as chancellor aside.
I will always remember the first answer to Luntz’s newsnight focus group on Brown. After a clip of Brown talking to activists was shown a bemused member of the audience said ‘He sounds like he’s taking them into war’.
Thought that was just right.
Wasn’t the word Islamofascism invented by leftist pro-Iraq-war zealots like David Aaronovitch and Nic Cohen in order to sell the invasion to the Comrades?
Islamofascist is one of the most dumb words invented by the right - Fundamentalism exists in every religion - Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Judaism, etc. - do we have words to denote Christofascist I don’t think that exists … and if you compare religious fundamentalism in any religion it is the same set of extremist values ….
57. The Political Brain is an excellent book and I would strongly recommend it. I read it in one sitting. Superb.
62
The math does not matter anymore — for none of the candidates can reach the magick number.
It will be a qualitative decision made by the super-delegates based on Electability: the potential to beat Man in november.
The will to win is driving the decision more than ‘respect’ to mathematical facts…
57
Obama is the class warrior:
he said last week he was willing to increase taxes on capital gain — even if doing so actually decreased States revenues — in the name of FAIRNESS.
That’s a class warfare enunciation.
O/T The detailed data from the mruk/ST poll is on the mruk website . I must say it is well presented and readable . As for accuracy time will tell , they have clearly thought out their ideas on weighting - pastvote , certainty to vote etc .
IMHO they could well become a valued addition to the ranks of the polling organisations especially if they are added to the ranks of the BPC members .
There was also included a GE voting intention question with results Con 41 Lab 35 LD 18 which does not look oulandish and a number of interesting questions as to what voters thought of Ken and Boris .
Anthony Wells has some interesting comments on the poll on his site .
65
Why not?
I have no idea why people take the most extreme form of female Islamic dress for an example - there are a myriad of dress forms for Muslim females - from no head covering at all - to the extreme one you mentioned above - I agree though that form of dress is nothing but oppressive - would love to see a man forced to wear that kind of dress - but as above a lot of religions have dress codes for women not just Islam -
48 Oh, I think that whoever’s nominated as the Democrat candidate is likely to take it. But I certainly don’t anticipate the walkover that some here predict, and it could go wrong for them. I think far too many Europeans (obviously not you) tend to think that sooner or later Americans will come to their senses and vote for the candidate who they see as fitting the mould of a European socially liberal social democrat. I don’t think that Obama is particularly socially liberal or social democrat by European standards (and even if he was, he’d be constrained by the fact that America’s political centre of gravity is well to the right of Europe’s) but that’s the way many of his supporters over here see him. I think that they would be hugely disappointed once he became President.
Excerpt from today’s Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
“Dave Price, 65, a Republican in Bellevue, cast a vote early today for Mr. McCain. But he said that’s not necessarily the way he will go in the November general election.
‘If Obama runs, I’ll be very interested in taking a look,’ said Mr. Price, a retiree.
‘The change theme gets me,’ Mr. Price said. ‘I’m a Republican but not a knee-jerk Republican.’”
65. Unlike the fundies of the Christian or Jewish faiths, only the Islamofascists seem keen on a programme of world conquest, converting or terrorising the rest of us at the point of a sword. That is their avowed intent.
“Islamofascist” fits the bill. Again, if you can think of a better word which sums up the brutal, murderous, warlike, crazed, nihilistic, hateful Koranically-inspired, anti-Semitic zealotry of the Islamists then feel free to tell us.
IslamoStalinists?
The characters from Rainbow in a London mayoral debate. Zippy is Ken, George is Boris, and Bungle is Brian Paddick. Very good!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKRJVBqvd04
OBAMA TO WIN PA
7% chances according to Political Future Markets Intrade:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=538018
65 It depends what period of history you’re looking at. I can’t think of any Christian suicide bombers, right now. Christian fundamentalists don’t generally demand death to apostates (although they would have done hundreds of years ago).
72. Spot on
But if Obama becomes President it would send a big message that the US is not as polarised as it is often portrayed with that idiot Bu**sh**.
A lot of faiths have used the sword to force religious conversion - as I recall there is a long tradition in Christianity of doing the same - and Islam was responsible for a lot of advances we have in our society - and fundamentalists in all religions try to force their dogma on other people maybe not by the sword - but only a minority of Muslisms do that - but by deed -
74. Jihadism seems a pretty good term. At least it doesn’t conflate it with another movement based on some vague similarities.
58 - guy annoyed while waiting for his wife to adjust her wardrobe: sounds like a Henny Youngman joke!
77. http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/04/26/clinic.bomb/index.html
74:
Actually, ‘Islamonihilist’ isn’t bad.
The word fascist is overused. I remember seeing it and hearing it at NUS conferences - often spelt “facist”.
It is a word that reminds me of infantile student politics of the 1980s.
Remember: “Darling Fascist Bullyboy, Give me some more money, you bastard. May the seed of your loin be fruitful in the belly of your woman, Neil”
80 — JIHADISM
Apparently Condi Rice does not agree with you, Socrates:
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/020756.php
“A reliable source has informed me that Condoleeza Rice has approved a new lexicon for State Department usage, absolutely forbidding the use of the terms “jihad” and “jihadist” by any State Department official.
The argument, of course, is the old Streusand/Guirard claim that by using the word jihad, we’re validating the jihadist claim to be waging jihad. “
Islamic fundamentalism and Fascism have different histories, different ideological roots, different structures, different goals, different power bases and occur in different types of societies.
This is simply not true. There are well established historical and philosophical connections between Islamism and Fascism. It is well known the Grand Mufti supported Hitler - it is also well documented that many Nazis escaped to the Middle East and adopted Arab names after the war and supported Muslim causes - primarily pro Palestinian. For ideological connections I suggest you read Occidentalism : A Short History of Anti-Westerism by Ian Buruma and Avishai Margalit.
84 - “Smash the Islamo-Fascist Insect!”
What European civilisation lacks, hamstrung as it is by the slow-dying creed of multiculturalism, is social disapproval.
You shouldn’t have to outlaw things like full-body burqas, Muslims themselves should just feel too embarrassed to go out in them. But because we are scared of expressing our disapproval of “ethnic” or “minority” traditions, no one dares say: don’t wear that. And so they feel free to parade their misogynistic values.
When you tolerate comparatively trivial things like burqas, then the bigger ones follow - honour killings, forced marriages, FGM, etc. Because the incoming cultures sense no boundaries to what is accepted by the host community.
It’s a bit like zero tolerance of petty crime leading to a decrease in major crime, as has been proved.
We need to start with social disaapproval of things like burqas.
Sorry for getting serious and pompous. I was just irked by the sight of this poor woman in Regent’s Park, having to adjust her hood.
I’ll be back to normal in a minute.
On the subject of words, what is the origin of the word “bamboozle”? Someone used it at a meeting of the Stalin Society the other day in relation to Tibet. It reminded me of the Bamboo Curtain.
58. Your ignorance of Islam is quite staggering. Actually, on second thoughts nothing you write surprises me. I’m just amazed you live in London - you must be a fish out of water.
If you want to see women in slavery don’t look to the burkha. Look to girls in our schools who are being peddled a perfect size 0 body image; to advertising which markets sex in every shape and form as the norm; to girls subjected to the endless roving eyes of the page 3 louts; to those sold into sex slavery in the west to satisfy our carnal desires.
That, at least, would be many a Muslim’s perspective; and many a Muslim woman’s perspective.
86: ‘There are well established historical and philosophical connections between Islamism and Fascism.’
And, of course, good old Nick Griffin sought funding from the Ayatollah Khomeini and Colonel Gaddafi in the 1980s.
90 You should live in Middle East for a while. Saudi in particular. Objectifying women isn’t just a Western thing
90. Thats’s quite true, although I’d want to be careful about making the Middle East and Islam synonymous. My point was really directed at that ignoramus Sean.
Sorry - 92 I mean.
Don’t forget Kaiser Bill, who tried to launch his own jihad on the way from Berlin to Baghdad.
I vaguely remember a young man in favour of racial segregation being on the James Whale TV show in about 1991. This young man had recently left the NF, I think. Was it Nick Griffin.
A regular on Whale’s show was Jerry Hayes, then Tory MP for Harlow (I think). Incidentally, Whale is a UKIPper, and had hoped to run for mayor this time round.
89: ‘what is the origin of the word “bamboozle”’
Perhaps from the Scottish ‘Bam’ meaning hoax, trick (according to SOD).
90. And here we have a perfect example: of the self-hating, Islamofascist-tolerating left. Your opinions are a kind of ideological tumour: a hideous growth on the once respectable face of progressive thought.
There are many problems, between the genders, in western society. But to compare the way we treat women to the way they are treated in many Islamic countries is absurd , repugnant and disgraceful.
I know full well which society I want my daughter to grow up in.
One where she won’t suffer a clitoridectomy. One where she will be allowed to show her face, and vote, and drive. One where she won’t be imprisoned for SUFFERING rape. One where her voice will count as loud as a man’s in court. One where she will not be the third wife. One where she won’t executed by her cousins for dating the wrong boyfriend.
Compared to that the nightmare of her geting her stilletto heel caught in a car door as she rushes off to her collagen implant seems pretty picayune.
You stupid man.
91. Don’t you mean the IRA and Ken Livingstone sought funding from Colonel Gaddaffi.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23479477-details/Ken%27s+adviser+is+linked+to+terror+group/article.do
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1732498,00.html?xid=feed-cnn-nation
A society which allows things like this to go on? Hold on a minute they are not Islamic so it must be o.k. - we can only criticize the Islamic religion - not Western based ones.
All religions have fundamentalists - extremists - The nice loony Christian sect for example which has a nice website called Godhatesf*gs for example which has great photos of dead g.y people but of course they are not Muslims so this is o.k.
I am fed up of people attacking people and not accepting that a lot of people belong to fundamentalist sects no matter what religion.
O/T - Not sure if this has been mentioned but former AG Lord Goldsmith isn’t backing the 42 day terror thing. Didn’t he back 90 days?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7360823.stm
Riise = Clegg
DEFECTION ALERT!
LibDem Leader on Sedgemoor Council, Cllr Danny Titcombe, has defected to the Conservatives. (Source: ConHome)
96: ‘A regular on Whale’s show was Jerry Hayes’
Ah yes, Hayes was always on there (for no useful reason that I could ever determine). I heard a few years ago that Whale is now a foaming wing-nut, which I thought odd. On his ‘Radio Show’ in the late 1980s he struck me as a sort of aggressive liberal - anti-racist, animal rights, sexually tolerant.
100 yes absolutely right. I’m afraid Sean T is the sort of National Front supporting thug who brings this country a bad name. I shall ignore his neandertalic rants in future.
104 - Jerry Hayes was the first Tory MP for 50 years to have what?
100. Sure. I am happy to criticize any fundamentalists. But it is just nonsense to say that Christian fundies are in any way comparable to Islamofascists in terms of power and menace.
For instance: as far as I know the only major societies at present executing men simply for being gay are Muslim societies like Iran.
http://static.flickr.com/93/243804472_0e36b527f8_o.jpg
39 Islamiofacism describes the syndrome perfectly.
However, nobody remembers the Italian and Spanish facists like they remember the Nazis. Indeed, if Franco had not been neutral in WW2, incvading Gibralter, the outcome would have been different.
Islamo-nazi is more accurate.
105. Alternatively, why not just go away and hang your head in shame, you stupid, fascist-loving idiot?
90 Think I’m with Sean T on this one. Hard core pornography can be gross, but there’s no doubt that women are a hell of a lot better treated in our society than in almost any Islamic one.
99: ‘Don’t you mean the IRA and Ken Livingstone sought funding from Colonel Gaddaffi.’
No, I’m sure Griffin and the NF (when Griffin was leader) went cap in hand too. In fact see here:
http://www.stopthebnp.org.uk/campainging/NickGriffin.htm
Remember, Griffin was more of a classical fascist then, so Gaddafi’s anti-semitic tendencies would have appealed.
109 When Labour are evicted at the next election, policies and laws can be repealed so sensible neednt argue with Left wing Extremists
So, back to Hillary’s chances. I still wouldn’t write her off even if she only wins narrowly. At the end of the day this looks like coming down to the SD’s who will not be sentimental, nor motivated solely by arguments surrounding popular votes or number of states. Providing she wins she is still in it, though I’m sure inside her own camp she will feel she needs at least 5%+ really to push the momentum argument.
106: ‘Jerry Hayes was the first Tory MP for 50 years to have what?’
A beard?
Islamo-Nazi is good. Shame those pictures of the massed ranks of Hizbollah goose stepping in black doing their Heil Hitler salutes aren’t more freely shown in the Western media.
106 a beard
67 you think she can still make a case if she needs a huge majority of supers? I don’t.
105. I haven’t noticed any fundamentalist Christians hijacking planes and flying them into buildings in order to kill thousands of innocent kafirs lately. Have you?
Remember separatist movements like the IRA were never Christian movements. The IRA was a Marxist inspired outfit. The only thing Christians have ever done is turn the other cheek and forgive their tormentors. Perfectly fine in a world of the guilt-ridden transgressor who sees the wrong of their way.
But when the Koran comes along they exploit this Christian weakness - they set out to ‘enslave the Christians’, expecting them to surrender without a fight.
If in doubt see ‘Fitna’ on Youtube.
How surprised they must be when the likes of Hillary provides leadership. Especially as she is a woman. Remember how the Islamists slaughtered Bhutto only a few months ago.
I’m with Mr T on this one.
100 There is a big difference, in that even pretty devout Christians are critical of organisations like God Hates Fags, or Mormon polygamists. In fact, even within Christian fundamentalism, these are extremists.
Whereas, quite a lot of mainstream Muslim societies prescribe the death penalty for apostates, make it more or less unlawful to propagate non-Muslim religions, circumsise women etc.
hiliary cannot win the nomination off the back of anything that happens tonight, all she’s done is completely shoot herself in the foot with the iran comments that are going to completely scare off any remaining superdelegates who were thinking of supporting her
114 - 116 - yes, a beard.
“The only thing Christians have ever done is turn the other cheek and forgive their tormentors.”
Ahaha, very good, very good, do you do weddings et cetera…
120 - I agree with the first part and am not too sure about the latter part.
111. Oh no. Not another hard-left nutter going on about the BNP, using sources financed by Ken Livingstone (who an accredited source links to Islamic terrorism, see above).
Please, o please, tell us how you agree all fascism is evil, before your start attacking a democratic political party. Especially one that is raising the issue of Islamic fascism more then any other in the UK today.
58. SeanT - I couldn’t agree more. I hate it too.
We don’t do anything because we’re scared of Muslims.
90. Left-wing dickhead.
What is the problem with you people?
Get a brain.
121:
Really? That was a sort of guess, though I think I might have heard it before and forgotten about it. How did they manage to prove that?
121 Considering the NoW outing of Mr Hayes there is a dual meaning to that answer - but I doubt he was first allegedly (he IIRC didn’t confess to the charge) gay MP to have a wife, so it must be facial hair.
101. Shock horror - Lord Goldsmith changes his mind on something! What a novelty.
/sarcasm.
Christian Fundamentalist?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Koresh
117 Try the crusades my friend.
The greatest, most systematic and long-lasting acts of terror against other human beings have been committed by Christians more than Muslims. It always shocks me when I point this out to students, going in detail through history.
Anyway, let’s get back on topic!
105. You are a twat.
121 - Yes but for manic facial hair, few are comparable to Gerald Nabarro!
106. a perm?
101 - no, he said he’d have resigned if it had gone through.
110 - Ah, but what about Muslim women in our society?
PENNSYLVANIA = “Penn’s Woods” founded by William Penn on the principle of religious toleration. Also famous for its Amish & similar unassimilated residents, who clog the roads with horsebuggies and show less skin that you’ll see in your typical casbah.
135. Alex, don’t stir!
We have established, and Richard has accepted, that he is a ridiculous twat.
We don’t have to add any more. Let’s move on.
BBC News predicting the possible demise of Hillz, tonight. Hmm…
124: ‘Not another hard-left nutter going on about the BNP, using sources financed by Ken Livingstone’
I don’t remember mentioning the BNP, old fruit. Only friend Nick. As for being a nutter, you’re probably right, but I do quibble over the left-wing tag. (Cue ‘pinko crud’, ‘communist scum’ diatribe?)
90. What self-loathing cr*p - and way off the mark: if size 0 is the target why is Birmingham so full of size 14, 16, and 18 and bigger young females (a lot of the chaps are also porky).
Sean is damn right in his suggestion for a zero tolerance approach to muslim “culture”.
re 58 yes Sean it is completely repulsive and made even more so when you see than man dressed in western clothes.
135. Alex, when someone like Sean T uses the royal ‘we’ (with perhaps one person’s tentative support for his fascism) you know he’s lost the argument. Not that I think he’s got the brain to hold one actually. All ranting and raving, and very very little cerebral engagement.
Anyway, as I happen to know Sean upsets almost everyone on this site on a regular basis I shall go to bed shortly. Some reports on Sky News from Penn playing down Clinton’s win to around 6% - but this may be mere guesswork one suspects.
Back on Hillary and away from this Islamodebate.
The only way she will pull out tonight is if she loses. I don’t see any evidence that that will happen.
But she will need to avoid the likely thumping in North Carolina to have any case to make to the Superdelagates.
Speaking of which, is anyone else surprised that there has not really been the sweeping gain of SDs by Obama that we have all speculated about over the last 8 weeks?
Obamaites suggest that he can’t lose and that the Democratic hierarchy are fed up. If so, why not just get the Super’s to come out for Obama to end the race?
If they are so concerned that Hillary is damaging the golden child, why not give her the spanish archer?
The edited exit polls will be available shortly… can those of us that are bothered about the PA result try to focus? About 10 minutes time…..
Mm. I’m with Sean T on this one too. The crusades were terrible, I’nm sure, but they were 800 years ago FFS. And the Islamic world was hardly a model of peaceful tolerance back then.
Going back to the thread, I think Clinton spouting off re Iran plus being outspent by Obama on ads etc plus the young vote could still spring a surprise result tonight.
I’ve just got a couple of quid on Obama to win outright at 27/1 on betfair and I might take a bit more if it’s there….
On the other hand an extreme result of Clinton by 10% or more is to some just as likely…but I think not, should be some early unofficial exit poll info somewhere…?
[117] “The only thing Christians have ever done is turn the other cheek and forgive their tormentors… the Koran exploit this Christian weakness”
There is no such Chrisitan weakness.
If a Christian, you dont need to stand by and watch people have their heads sawn off. Christianity is not a pacifist religion. The Apostles/Disciples were armed and ready to use lethal force.
Luke 22:36 “he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one.”
Incidentally, here’s one for those Islamophobes amongst you:
‘Anyone who commits an act of terrorism or any murder against another human being is not a Muslim, and is utterly condemned by Islam’.
Words from a Muslim educator that I heard for myself in a mosque (I’m not going to reveal here why I was there). The vast majority of Muslims think that these idiots who blow others up are no more a part of Islam than Bush’s invasion of Iraq had to do with following Jesus Christ.
But these things require subtle thought and careful learning by intelligent people, rather than rant n’ rave.
On a lighter note, I was rather surprised that the ten o’clock news today led with a resoundingly Eurosceptic story. It was only about MEPs fiddling allowances (which is on a scale well in excess of anything our friends in Westminster might get up to) but the whole tone of the report was one of knowing resignation. Surprising to see the BBC taking this line. Two or three years ago they’d only ever get Eurosceptics on to ridicule them.
130 Richard, the Crusades were bloody and there were massacres on both sides, but they were not an aggressive war by Christendom against a peaceful Islam. They were one side of a clash of civilisations - the other was equally bad.
The Christian Kingdoms that existed before and in part through the crusades were being invaded and occupied by an expansionist and imperialist people who rapidly conquered large areas, driven by religious zealotry but also by desire for wealth. They didn’t do this without massive bloodshed. Palestine, Armenia, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Libya were Christian countries, places that were considered part of Christendom.
Read a bit more about the massacres of the Jewish and Christian populations of what is now Saudi Arabia (referred to in the Koran) right at the start of the Arab islamic expansion. The crimes committed against the populaces in countries occupied, sometimes through centuries, finishing with the massacres of the Pontian Greeks and Armenians less than a century ago.
[147] Blah Blah Blah.
I hear what you are saying but the evidence says otherwise…
PA Exit Polls;
Exit polls show a smaller percentage of late deciders — 23% — than in previous states.
The economy mattered most to 54% of voters.
The change versus experience question has been settled: 49% said change was their top vote-generating quality, versus 26 percent who said experience was.
About 15% of the electorate was made up of new voters.
37% are gun owners.
More than 60% of Clinton voters say they wouldn’t be happy if Obama were the nominee; about half of Obama voters say the same.
25% of Clinton supporters say they’d vote for McCain in the general election; 17% of Obama supporters say they’d vote for McCain in the general election.
57% of Pennsylvanians believed that Sen. Clinton “attacked” unfairly compared to 49% who thought Obama did.
Source, CBS.
147. I thought you were off to bed, you flailing old fool?
Go, before you say anything more embarrassing.
And from the Associated Press; Sea Shanty and others - your thoughts?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080422/ap_on_el_pr/primary_exit_poll_glance;_ylt=ApRlGGbnr8XVtBlk_p0QL4Rp24cA
Pennsylvania has two common nicknames:
KEYSTONE STATE
so called because of its geographical position, noted by Benjamin Franklin and others, in the orginal 13 colonies. Without PA, game over. With PA, game on.
QUAKER STATE
First & foremost early PA was a refuge for the Society of Friends, which was persecuted at the time in England and elsewhere (with greatly varrying intensity) under the British crown.
Note that “Quaker State Oil” is a longstanding US brand, which with “Pennsoil” commenorates the fact that the US & world petro industry began with Col. Drake’s well at Titusville, PA
147 I’m sure you’re only coming out with this rubbish to annoy people here. If you have to go back to the Crusades (and Ted rightly points out there was violence on both sides) to prove the moral superiority of Islam, you’re getting pretty desperate.
149. Nice to see such a good post Ted. It deserves my careful response, but I’m knackered. I certainly don’t want to justify nor romanticise medieaval Islam. I merely note that Christianity has a very chequered history - and I fully accept much of what you have written. A lot depends on perspective too, and it can take time for those raised in a nominally Christian nation to discover just how bloody our own past has been: from colonialism to crusades, slavery to the cold-war, from the inquisition to the arms race many things have been justified in the name of Christendom which have caused untold misery to millions. This is not of course a comment on the founder of the faith, who if indeed sitting at the right hand of the Father, must weep at what has been justified in his name.
It’s in part my area of research and work this so I get a bit fed-up when people post the sort of bigotted ill-informed tosh that Sean has on this topic.
148. I saw that.
Delighted as I was, as a eurosceptic, I thought it rather strange. Hardly a lead news story…. EuroMPs on the fiddle… baby soils nappy… moon rises at night….
In fact it seemed a little gestural. I wonder if minds at the BBC are being concentrated by the prospect of a Tory government, intent on liberalising TV services, and allowing editorial bias in TV news, and possibly sharing the license fee, etc.
Good thing too, if so. I support the BBC, but its stultifying liberal-leftism needs challenging.
Marc Ambinder, via CBS News, has some early exit poll info. Nothing too startling so far except 15% are new voters. That’s a higher figure than most pollsters accounted for and would likely favour Obama :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/exit_polls_change_and_polariza.php
146. I think that’s a very ambiguous verse. After all, when Peter went on to use his sword, Christ rebuked him and healed the high priest’s servant’s ear.
It’s not true, of course, that Christians have never used violence. But Sean T and others are right that, for the past 200-300 years, Christians of all denominations have basically recognized (as St Paul did) that faith requires a spiritual sword, not a physical one.
Newsnight covering Obama tonight
[155] If Richard goes back to the Crusades, perhaps he will go back to Mohammed’s 9 year old wife…
Evening All.
1. we are decimal culture so i think it has to be 10% plus to get any tracyion. thats was also the winning margin in ohio. If she wants momentum then its 10% plus. I suspect 7% legitimises her staying in till may 6th but really at this stage if she isn’t moving forward then she’s going back. I wish her well but my feeling is the spending edge is beginning to bite.
If only she’d fired mark penn earlier
2. I understand the term islamofascist though islamonihilsit is better. However I’m too much of