Could Al Gore still be in with a shout?
April 24th, 2008
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Like Bartlett - what about a Nobel Prize winning President?
Every so often in this pro-longed battle for the Democratic nomination someone pops and puts forward the name of Al Gore - seen in the picture giving his acceptance speech after being awarded the Nobel Prize.
The argument is usually the same - the bitter contest between Obama and Clinton has so embittered large parts of the party that the only way of creating the unity required to compete in November is by looking to someone else - Gore.
And so it has been in the aftermath of Pennsylvania which has raised further questions about Obama as well as worries that the fight itself is damaging the party.
Steven Stark of the Boston Phoenix puts it like this: “In truth, Gore would be a stronger candidate in November than the two front-runners. He knows what it’s like to run in a tough presidential campaign, which, as we’re finding out with Obama, is a huge advantage. He is, after all, a Nobel Prize winner; he has the advantage of now running from outside Washington even though he’s as experienced as John McCain; and he might be able to pick off a Southern state or two. He’s already won once - with an asterisk. And he could put the electoral focus back on the economy and the Republican record of the past eight years - which it will rarely be as long as Clinton or Obama is the nominee.
Sure, Gore’s entry would obviously not be greeted with waves of enthusiasm by Obama supporters. Still, he is quite popular with one of the Illinois senator’s principal constituencies: the young…It’s true that drafting a new candidate at this point would be unprecedented. But the virtually deadlocked race between the two remaining candidates makes it at least possible.”
I don’t think that this is going to happen - but it just might. So over the past few months my betting has been to lay (bet against either Hillary of Barack) rather than betting for them. Generally the prices have been about the same but it does mean that I’ve built up substantial potential profits should, for whatever reason, the two do not make it.
Latest Democratic nomination betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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Won’t happen.
It’s about the only thing that unify the Obama and Clinton campaigns.
The slugfest they’re engaged in might be worth it or it might not be, but to have had them compete so hard, for so long, for nothing would enrage both them and those who voted and donated.
Could Al Gore still be in with a shout? Only at being the Democrat Fred Dalton Thompson.
In it to win it? He doesn’t seem to be in it at all yet.
Couldn’t Hillary and Obama settle it by a brisk match of “paper, scissors, stone”?
We are all arguing over whether Popular Vote trumps pledged delegates or whether which states were won counts. So to then choose a candidate who won no popular votes, no states and no delegates in the nominating round would be controversial to say the least.
‘He might be able to pick off a southern state or two’ - au contraire, he couldn’t even win his own state in 2000. He couldn’t even hold on to the border states such as Kentucky and Missouri, which Clinton had won. This is the man who took prosperity, peace and incumbency, and threw them away.
Re. 3, or a penalty shoot-out!
Since we’re on a West Wing theme, remember what happened when Pennsylvania Governor Baker tried to do exactly this to capitalise on gridlock between Santos/Obama and Russell/Clinton at the convention. Santos stole the show. Obama will win the nomination.
Gore has a track record as a loser. He still wouldn’t win his home state. And there’s no reason to believe he would open up the political map in November.
No, he’s already been successfully stereotyped by the GOP and he failed to successfully dispel claims that he said he invented the internet etc. Winning a Nobel prize might win you respect in the Democrats, but there’s a lot of anti-intellectualism in the US and it would probably hurt him in the main election.
Besides, to win Al Gore would have to get the majority of both Clinton and Obama’s pledged delegates to get the nomination. Could theoretically happen if there were three or four candidates split evenly, but when Obama will win an absolute majority of elected delegates, it won’t happen.
If his Nobel prize had been awarded for a real science then he might be able to make the link.
In years to come we will view Gore like Greenspan - i.e. an idiot once hailed as a hero.
Every now and again, Mike, somebody raises this question and then it just dies the death - like the Bloomberg and Lieberman stories. It makes for interesting copy on a dull day. It does not make for a betting opportunity, unless of course enough mugs buy it and Gore’s price gets so low it becomes a cheap lay.
Do we have a QT debate tonite on the Mayoral? Now THAT could be fun.
The line, ‘In truth, Gore would be a stronger candidate in November than the two front-runners.’, is simply untrue. In 2007, several polls were done which included Gore among the list of potential Democratic Presidential candidates, and if I remember rightly he came behind Clinton and Obama in all of them. He is *not* ‘more electable’ than the two candidates who have won almost all the delegates between them.
In any case, there’s no evidence that Gore even wants to run for President again. 2000 was pretty traumatic for him, I’d imagine. If he genuinely does want to run, he should have entered the race by now; that he hasn’t shows that he doesn’t, and is happy to leave the Presidential race to Clinton and Obama.
I don’t know why people are saying that the primary race is damaging the Democrats. Pennsylvania saw 200,000 new registered Dems as a result of the primary. How many were signing up to the GOP - precious few I’d think.
Provided the Dems come together after the convention (which with their thirst to get the the Reps out they are highly likely to do) they will have a huge and enthused supporter base, plus a fundraising machine that McCain can only dream of.
The Democrat primary race will help whoever comes out of it (and it won’t be Gore) to go on and take the big prize.
13. The main problem is allowing McCain to define himself in the eyes of most people before they get a chance to do it.
Interesting to speculate about what would happen if something very bad happened to Obama, since that’s presumably the premise behind Hillary still being in with a chance despite it being virtually impossible for her to win a majority of delegates otherwise.
The way Hillary’s campaign has been attacking Obama and given how polarized the race has become, it’s hard to see his supporters voting for her even if their man went down. The scenarios where she wins would involve some very finely balanced votes, so if I’ve got the process right (and I haven’t checked) it would only involve a small number of delegates abstaining on the first vote to stop either Hillary or Obama from winning.
If that happened and neither was prepared to give way, Gore would be the man to step in.
Unlikely? Yes, very. It requires an Obama implosion followed by some improbable conference shenanigans. But so does Hillary winning, which the markets, in their wisdom, currently put at 5/1. These two possibilities should be closer together, meaning there’s value either backing Gore or laying Hillary. (My guess is the second one.)
The Democrats have a problem.
Obama with links to pastors who say F*CK AMERICA and a wife who says she has never been proud of America
The hated Clinton, from the hated Clinton clan with her flexible relationship with the truth.
Neither candidate is suitable. However, they have come this far, it is unlikely the Democrats will not see it through. They will stand with a loser and lose.
So what of Al Gore? I understand he is a bit of a joke in the US. A quick Google gives these
Al Gore Penquin Army
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZSqXUSwHRI
Al Gore and Man Bear Pig
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh_EhGG5LWs
“Do you want me to get the ex-Vice President out of here?”
“No, I kinda feel bad for him. I dont think he has any friends”
MANBEARPIG!
Al Gore has as much chance as winning the Presidency as the Liberal Democrats being the largest UK party!
He needs both Obama and Hillary to implode - just ain’t happenin’.
Obama is going to be pretty much confirmed after he wins NC and IN.
Ken,doing Radio Five interview at the moment. Diong well so far in “introductary” remarks.
Re: Gore. The only senario in which this could happen is if both Clinto/obama reduce each other to radioactive slag heap. however
1. the party’s problem is it has two terrific candidates not that it has none.
2. Winning the oscar sinks him. It literally labels him a hollywood liberal.
15 Edmund in Tokyo, I have been asking questions based on the points you have made for some time now, and I am still not sure I really understand (or believe!) the answers I have been given.
The venom between the Obama and Clinton camps seems poisonous in the extreme: I do not see how they could ever be reconciled to each other as individuals, and for many of their activists it must be even worse. This is not like the election to choose a Deputy Leader of the UK Labour Party! The Obama and Clinton camps are virtually separate, and competing, political parties, each with its own fundraising and activist base. It has always been assumed that everyone will come together as one big happy family to thrash the GOP, but will they?
Gore will not be asked to be the Democratic Candidate; he would be unwise to accept it if he was, and he would be beaten like a mangy dog if he did. However, if Clinton was chosen, could Obama run as an Independent?
If anything, the Democrat race seems to be getting less intense, not more. Were it still neck-and-neck, this might be a genuinely possible scenario. As it is, it’s not. Clinton knows she can’t win without a good majority of the superdelegates, and she won’t get them if she becomes too negative and divisive. Obama knows that as long as he keeps going as he is, he’ll win. Therefore, the double-knockout looks extremely unlikely.
As it is, while Gore might be the third favourite for the nomination, his odds are way too short. Edwards offers more value of those outside the front two - but only in the context of triple-figure odds.
20: However, if Clinton was chosen, could Obama run as an Independent?
He could if he wanted, but it seems very unlikely. He’s not polling well enough to be in with much of a chance if he did, given that Democrats pretty much split 50/50 and McCain seems to have a pretty steady 40% to 45%. And unlike Hillary, he has plenty of time to try again if he loses this time.
The thing about being like competing political parties is true, but isn’t this always how US presidential politics works? And they always seem to kiss and make up in the end…
20 Don’t be silly, they won’t actively conspire in the destruction of their own party and ensure a GOP win!
23 But David, is “The Democrats” a political party in the same way that (say) the Labour Party is? It is a huge loose baggy monster of a thing, with all sorts of life-forms contained within it. Does its activist base (particularly its newest recruits) regard themselves as Democrats first, or Obama/Clinton loyalists? The longer the fight goes on between them, then surely the latter must be considered. How much will they (by which I mean either side) be able to swallow their pride and support their main opponent against McCain if they lose?
I really can’t see this happening. All the money that has been raised and spent, the time of all the people who have come out to vote or take part in caucuses - all wasted. It would seem criminal.
OFF TOPIC AND ENTIRELY SELF-SERVING: My blog was mentioned in the New Statesman. I am well chuffed - http://www.newstatesman.com/200804240037
I can’t believe this nonsense has been posted again. It is not even worthy of discussion.
MANBEARPIG!!!
Some (including perhaps Bill) have suggested Hillary might run as Obama’s VP.
Why would she do that? Surely she’s more influencial on the Senate?
Dick Morris has a more plausible theory for the role that Gore will play in the contest:
‘guess here is that Al is keeping his powder dry to lead the superdelegates in accepting the will of the voters. Perhaps in concert with a Gang of Five that might include former president Jimmy Carter, Pelosi, party Chairman Howard Dean and former candidate John Edwards, Gore may act as the elder statesman in the party, stepping in after all the voters have spoken, asking the Clintons to accept the will of the people and give way. He might quell the credentials battles, giving Florida and Michigan some representation in return for a recognition that Obama should be the nominee.’
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/gores_conspicuous_silence_on_p.html
28 - A cynic might say that it is the heartbeat away from the Presidency argument and the availability of racist nuts with guns.
30 - I had thought of that, yes.
I don’t think Gore would win the general election if he became the democratic nominee. MacCain is doing a lot better than many on this side of the pond realise.
It would be an interesting spectical seeing Gore with Brown - In some ways they are political solemates: Awkward, poor communicators, shifty, pretend to be policy driven, macavellian etc. Nevermind as Brown is doomed to fail and Labour have an appointment with defeat at the next general election maybe Brown will be able to make some money like Gore: But Brown will have to do better than that Book on courage!
Sorry to Nick Palmer yesterday - it’s just in the febrile atmosphere of Gordon Brown’s failing leadership we need daily updates about NP’s continuining support of Gordon Brown! Just like tthe Tories had to reaffirm their support for John Major!!!
everyday! 
Now, that did get tediuos!!!
22 “…they always seem to kiss and make up in the end…”
Yes, that’s the bit I don’t understand!
Ken did very well on radio. sane, calm, humane if a little lacking in sparkle. You can see the winning coalition, left of centre folk, ethnics, independents and managerialists who want things to work plus a certain “Mr London” regional patriotism. Its just difficult to energise these groups after 8 years as the establishment particularly with much higher outer bourgh turn out.
Simon mayo a much understaed political interviewer because of his back ground. sharp, relavent, bread and butter questions often fro m listeners with time left for the guy to actually answer.
Just been to top my car up near leeds (Yorkshire) and it was a 10 minute queue by the way! Everybody else seems to be topping up as well!
Having switched my own sympathies to Obama having heard his platform rather than his messianic shining light speeches - and therefore almost certainly giving him the Opik kiss of death - I do feel that he’s not weathering this contest well, and is probably thinking about how nasty its going to be in the real election should he make it.
I still stick by my hunch that he’ll agree to be Hillary’s VP runner with a view to being the main man next time around. This election has shown to him that’s he just not quite ready yet for the full onslaught.
36. I’m sure many thought that JFK ‘wasn’t quite ready yet’ too. Personally I think it’ll be fascinating to see Obama v McCain and it will be McCain that will be exposed of the two.
15 Edmund But so does Hillary winning, which the markets, in their wisdom, currently put at 5/1.
Hills are currently offering 11/4 Hillary and 1/4 Obama.
Ken admits for the first time that he could lose. As I said yesterday, he complains about the polls, but if his own private polls are any better, why does he not publish them - he owns the copyright and no one else !
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23480072-details/Mayor+talks+of+Boris+win/article.do
Has anybody any information on the number of postal votes in the mayoral in each area?
39. It says something that Brown and Ken are that unpopular that they have to send for Blair!
i’m sure many did think JFK wasn’t ready. But he had served three terms as a congressman and was on his second as a senator, as well as coming very close to getting the VP nomination in ‘56. And he’d won a Pullitzer prize.
From previous, and back on topic!
258-I wish you best of luck as seems an interesting project.
I would add to Dems: Conencticut, Vermont
To Reps: Kansas (but max 1 EV to Dems as split state), Montana, North Dakota
Some of the others are very outliers (is Washington really going to go Republican?) but accept they are within the realms of possibility.
My real swing states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon, Iowa, Arkansas (only and big only if HRC), West Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey.
Some are obviously more swingable than others.
btw-forgot about Indiana (kindly reminded up thread), only wing if Obama if nto safish Rep
What genuine ones or ghost voters, Mike?
38 I think Emund was quoting the Betfair price, Paul.
40 Apart from knowing what is on canvass returns, I knew that Ken was behind otherwise he would have published his private polls.
It could be part of a ploy for people to fell sorry for him. !
35. John Hutton on the radio appealing for calm. I always though government ministers appealing for calm was something that happened in the third world but it seems not. Thanks for pointing out that Leeds is in Yorkshire!?
@40:
I think you may need to sit on Sean Fear until he confesses all.
Watched PMQs belatedly today. Relatively good though it wasn’t so much Cameron’s attacks (slightly stuttering at times) as Brown’s defences which were really telling. Brown is just so useless! The thing is now that a majority of the population see Brown as having precious little of the “moral compass” put about earlier. Hence his dour Presbyterian demeanour, previously useful, has no partner and appears incongruous. At times he just seems like an old machine, grinding on and on without any sense of direction.
Hilariously one can see exactly where this whole episode is leading. Brown will shrink into an even more introspective world of neurosis and outright paranoia about those in his party. He is just not cut out for party leadership at the end of the day (this is not actually a comment on his ability to be PM). Even Major at the depth of his premiership seemed ready to smile and laugh about things - I don’t think anyone can imagine Brown smiling at an onslaught at the moment.
as acknowledged by Mike and elsewhere, the canvassing returns will show nothing unless they are from a mixture of inner and outer boroughs, and weighted by certainty to vote.
47. There is also a Leeds in Kent
48. rudely dismissed the standard article on radio before going on to actually confirm it. I think its a decent ploy. By raising the prospect of defeat he plays into two of his key messages
(a) this isn’t celelbrity big brother. something is at stake
(b) helps motivate anti Boris voters. Anti ken voters don’t need motivating.
47 There is also a Leeds in Kent
51. I know there is a castle called that. is there a place as well? Humble pie if so.
50 believe what you want to believe, what I am saying is the two match in and if Livingstone is saying that he could lose, that is very demoralising for his workers to say that he could lose.
5. Incumbency was the problem - because of the Monica issue, Gore was ashamed to have Clinton anywhere near his campaign in 2000.
@54:
Aye, the beautiful Leeds Castle is situated in the eponymous Kentish village. Lovely it is too.
Interesting snippet from BBC round up on the mayoral election today
The Smithfield porters and meat salesmen love him, cheering and waving as he marches through their long trading hall, surrounded by the inevitable media scrum.
“Smithfield is behind you guv’nor, we need you,” says butcher Keith Edwards, rushing out from behind his counter to shake the Tory candidate’s hand.
When Ken Livingstone was here, says another meat salesman, they booed and threw bones at him.
Entirely offtopic:
Does anybody know what the Eamonn Holmes/Radiator story refers to?
58 – Got a link?
I think I might do a cut and paste the “threw banes at him” for prosperity
53 There is also a Leeds in Yorkshire, Mark, but not many people know about it.
58 - they doubtless read the right wing press, who have a total stranglehold on London.
@61:
The Leeds in so-called Yorkshire is a local legend, told by parents to kids in Lancashire to scare them away from walking East.
Isn’t Leeds a suburb of Headingly?
61 - There are also 7 places named Leeds in the USA. There is a Leeds, New York. Which I suppose figures.
To save Jack the trouble, I’ll give the latest Democrat Nomination poll from Rasmussen:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
That’s Obama up 7points, which i think is a small increase on the previous poll.
58-Not sure how much to read into this.
At the height of the Blair honeymoon at the end of 1997 I was auditing a Smithfield Market operator. In coarse so called homophobic langauge they were comaparing the attitude of the governemnt to T-bone steaks and an&l passages.
Think the meat vote was lost to Labour a long time ago.
66. Thoughts on Indiana ? Which way will it swing ? Delegate draw could easily be the outcome.
I once went to the Leeds in Yorkshire. A damn sight more ugly than the one in Kent, that’s for sure.
Nice town hall, though.
O/T - Not sure if anyone has mentioned but it is Brian Paddick’s 50th birthday today.
@70:
O RLY? His botox budget must be huge.
69, stop deriding our glorious city!
Does the Kentish pretender have a hilarious statue of a fat man with barrel?
Does it have the splendid Victoria Quarter?
Does it have the Royal Armouries?
Honestly, you people having a go at Leeds. It’s a perfectly nice city, with far fewer murders than that nice capital.
@72:
I liked Leeds (the proper one) last time I was there. Nonetheless, few would maintain that Leeds is an attractive city.
Has the oldest gay pub in the world, so it claimed. The place was a shithole.
If Gore becomes prez, he won’t have time to appear on any more Futurama. That’s a good thing really. As much as I love Futurama, I’m never as amused when the makers’ Democrat leanings are overplayed by having him on. Their show, their prerogative of course and I’m a captive audience. I just won’t laugh at any Al Gore jokes… except the line “It could destroy the universe! And as an environmentalist, I’m against that.” That was well delivered by Gore. And the “That $100 could have bought me one gallon of gas!” line was quite good too.
Really hard to see it unless *both* major candidates implode. I think the media are hyping up the ‘vicious campaign’ stuff - as David Herdson observes, it seems to be getting less intense. If the worst an opponent says about you is that it’s a dangerous world and she thinks she’d be the best at dealing with it, that’s as mild as it gets. And the majority of supporters of both candidates say they’ll support the other - there’s a problem with the minority who say they won’t, but choosing Gore would just create a huge new group of cheesed-off people.
25: Congrats, Stonch!
32: Thanks, Martin. Politicians have to be more neurotic than most about what they’re said to have said, as otherwise the pseudo-quote takes on a life of its own, and years later people are still quoting it back at you - ‘you never denied it at the time!’.
@74:
Ah, isn’t Matt Groening a Republican?
I mean, there have been whole seasons of The Simpsons that seem like party political broadcasts for the GOP.
71 - Yes, he was born in 1958 was our Brian Leonard Paddick.
73, well it’s not ancient Rome, but actually there is quite a lot of Victorian architecture that is quite pleasant to look at.
That said there are a couple of concrete monstrosities that seem based on the Ministry of Justice from 1984. I imagine they’ll be used for ID card production if Labour get their wicked way.
I would maintain that Leeds is an attractive city! I think Briggate is the most attractive shopping street in the country. And it has some fine suburbs, too, built of stolid Yorkshire stone, swooping attractively up and down the valleys, and giving views down over the city from the northern suburbs - always a plus point.
And I’m a Mancunian
@75:
It is out of order all these folks lining up to snipe at you from behind pseudonyms. If we’re gonna slander you ruthlessly, we should have the good decency to do it under our own names.
78 Leeds has quite an impressive city centre, and some very attractive Northen suburbs. It’s also very successful economically.
@77:
That’s just ridiculous. He’s older than my Dad, yet looks about fifteen years younger.
Presumably he shares Berlusconi’s plastic surgeon.
@81:
It has a bloody good nightlife. For the North. If you’ve never been to Manchester.
78 Was tricked into driving through Leeds last year by that junction on the M1 where the outside lanes go into Leeds and inside lanes go “North”. There are indeed parts that are attractive though my tour was ruined by parties of drunks spilling out of pubs & clubs, which made trying to find my way out difficult as seeking to see the directions while avoiding drunken pedestrians was a trial.
Harrogate was nicer.
82 Well known that gay men age better - we take more care.
@84:
Harrogate closes at 4pm sharp. Breakfast is from 7:30-8:30. Please wipe your shoes coming in.
83 - I’m a Londoner, and I have great affection for Leeds. *reminisces fondly about the professional footballer*
No, nothing wrong with Leeds nightlife at all.
Happy Birthday Mr Paddick!
Just think, in 7 years time you may look like Gordon Brown.
Allegedly :O
@85:
I’m suddenly worried that PBC is turning into some Gay Supremacist board.
Harrogate is gorgeous to look at, but everyone there looks miserable.
I’ve always struggled with Leeds nightlife - never seems as much going on as any of the other big cities within 100 miles (i.e. Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Nottingham). But I’ve only been out there two or three times, and maybe I’ve just been unlucky.
84, 86 At the CBI Conference in Harrogate in 1989, one of the locals explained the town’s virtues as being mainly “Of course, Harrogate isn’t really in Yorkshire - it’s part of Surrey that escaped.”
@90:
Well, I’ve had some bloody good evenings out in Leeds. And it sounds like I’m not the only one.
Don’t think this link has been posted - Ben Brogan stirring things nicely
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/04/prime-minister.html
289- from the previous thread- for Julia Clark, Head of Political Research, Mori
Julia Clark- my brother in law (wannabee actor) worked for Mori about 20 years ago, he used to do the political sampling, amongst others. I don’t think his heart was in it to be honest.
I am glad that you have confirmed that your quality control systems are much more robust now.
91, nowt wrong wi’ Yorkshire.
Sometimes it’s hilarious to watch local news after the national. When Barnsley had their FA cup run BBC News said If you want to see the goal you’ll have to wait for Match of the Day.”
Look North showed it immediately, and then replayed it again:p
No faffing about up north.
Gore would only be a real possibility in a three or more cornered contest. As it is, Edwards has negligible numbers of delegates and these will in effect be unpledged as Edwards himself is obviously no longer a runner. So the risk of deadlock is vanishingly small. It may be very, very close but close is not the same as deadlocked. One of them will win a majority even if it is a tiny majority.
The only proviso is that Gore would come into play if something happened (major scandal or illness/death) to both Obama and Clinton (I firmly believe if something happened to only one of them then enough of the other’s supporters still has time for the rival to swing behind him/her). Consequently I have a handful of quid on at about 100-1.
90 I lived in Harrogate for the best part of a year, and really liked the place (although I detested my employer). Strange as it may seem, for someone used to London, rents and eating and drinking out were really cheap by comparison.
Harrogate is the only place I’ve ever been where a hotel has caused a scene when they suddenly realised that I was intending to share a double bed with another homosexual (spit) under their roof.
‘Twas a veritable Fawltyesque moment as the woman first of all failed to grasp that she hadn’t made a mistake, then was opposed to our being allowed to have a room at all, then suddenly turning sycophantically apologetic when she realised the situation was heading to a bad place.
Nadine Dorries MP posted the following on her blog, then deleted it. Whatever can it mean?
Secrets
Posted Thursday, 24 April 2008 at 13:37
Everyone has secrets. Some people can keep a secret and never tell a soul, but most people have to tell just one other person.
This is why the darkest of secrets eventually come to light, but it takes time, one at a time.
I found out a secret the other day which had been puzzling me for a while, but I knew that if I did nothing and waited, one day I would be the one to be told.
Now that I know, I’m going to tell lots of people, but not just any
people, only the ones who matter, important people.
And as they say, revenge is a dish best served cold.
89. I’m trying to work out how a gay overclass could sustain itself longterm!
98-Surely you choose who you invite to stay at your house, should they not have the same right?
101-By the same token you choose where to take your custom.
100 It’s rather like the religious sect of the Shakers whose members were sworn to celibacy, and found their numbers plummetted over time.
101. Perhaps, but if someone is haughty enough to not give a couple a room just because they’re gay we should certainly be allowed to mock them!
91 - 2nd May, 1997; I took the day off work and went out into the sunshine of North Yorshire for the day. I ended up in a pub in either Hackforth or Hornby (can’t remember which, the two are always signposted together and so inextricably linked in my mind) where three local elderly archetypes were gravely watching the tale end of the election results coming in, in particular the remarkable swing against the Conservatives in Harrogate and Knaresborough where Norman Lamont had found himself a seat after his own in outer London had been abolished.
“What they* will never grasp” wheezed one of these characters at length, savouring each word like a fine wine, “is that Yorkshire folk. Will never. Accept an MP. Unless he himself. Is a Yorkshireman.”
I’m not entirely sure this is true (well, it isn’t; Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper demonstrate that). But I rather enjoyed the irritable pride with which the sentiment was expressed.
*’They’, in this context, was unmistakeably meant as anyone not from Yorkshire.
@100:
Jars. We’ll grow new alpha-gays in special science jars.
104 IIRC, there were some exclusively gay hotels, before the passing of the Sexual Orientation Regulations.
@101:
Would it be reasonable for a hotel to turn away a black couple, upon realising they weren’t of the lighter-hued persuasion?
101 - Not if you’re letting rooms to the public for money. It’s not quite the same as having private guests at your private residence.
106. I feel sorry for the poor gay kids, born defenceless into the families of the oppressed and angry untermenschen!
Londoners got their booklet about the elections today (well, we did in Westmnister anyway), was reading it on the train up. It’s quite impressive in itself - a clear summary of the system, and a two-page statement from each candidate in random order. It’d be nice to have that in every election.
For those who aren’t in London, a summary that I’ll try to separate from my preferences. In the order they appear, listed by who they highlight at the top:
BNP: Large print, red/white/blue, some unsmiling candidates (? two unidentified plus Mayoral challenger) and three smiley voters saying how great the BNP is. Text repeatedly returns to immigration, putting other issues in the shade though pensioners, crime and the NHS get a brief nod.
Left List: The most detailed presentation, two pages of small print listing loads of left-wing policies. It’s the sort of thing I used to put out as a candidate in the 80s, and will appeal to earnest people.
Boris Johnson: he, Ken and Paddick lead with their names instead of their parties. The only candidate not looking at the camera: he’s looking down at a piece of paper with someone’s hand pointing to something on it. (According to your prejudice it shows him being impressively serious or like Bertie Wooster confronted with a piece by Spinoza.) Bright blue colours with a sprinkling of others, well laid-out. First four bullet points are all on crime, then a nod to green spaces and a snipe at the higher congestion charge for large cars (doesn’t mention that bit, so gives impression general rise is planned). No mention of Conservatives except on (large) logo.
Greens: the cutest candidate by a large margin (not a lot of competition), smiling cheerfully with lots of green pledges, a bit hard to read on the olive background. Only candidate to mention 2nd preference vote, but doesn’t explicitly endorse Ken here.
Brian Paddick: yellow and purple colours (nicked from UKIP?). Highlights pledge to quit if he doesn’t cut crime. Well-laid-out statements on crime, transport and housing/environment, with small pictures to illustrate each. No mention of LibDems except on the signature and small logo.
UKIP: also purple/yellow, huge picture of candidate (a London Euro-MP), plugs policing, transport, tax and urges protest vote vs mass immigration and EU. Very un-detailed.
Jesus: (well, that’s who the advert leads with), aka The Christian Choice. Favours marriage, opposes large mosque and abortion, for redistribution and will “end the (alleged) corruption” at City Hall. Candidate pictured twice, once in complex hug with spouse and child.
English Democrats: big St George’s flag (well-timed), repeatedly attacks Scotland - Tartan taxes, Scottish-run government, your money bankrolls Scotland. Red white and black, messily laid-out.
Ken Livingstone: smiley picture, a lot of unused space around it apart from one-sentence aims statement. Facing page stresses detailed Mayoral issues - transport investment, police, planinng, after-school options, Oyster card, taxing gas-guzzlers - subliminal implication seems to be that he understands the job and its limits. No mention of Labour except for small logo.
The three main candidates are all pretty professional in different ways and are clearly reaching out beyond their parties, who barely get a look-in. Everyone else is primarily boosting their parties, and many of the pledges of the minor candidates are not in the Mayor’s remit. Didn’t notice anyone bothering to endorse their fellow-candidates for the Assembly.
94- Julia Clark- thinking about it, it rather out of order for me to mention your company by name for what was an anecdotal story over 20 years ago.
Apologies for that.
@111:
Jesus…
Is not a London resident. I claim shenanigans.
101: House, private. Hotel, public.
95 “faffing” - word of the day.
I think Cameron should accuse Gordon of “faffing about”. It could be his “frit” moment.
@115:
Gordon: Fannying around, faffing about.
Maybe “fannying” would be unparliamentary language?
My opinion of Leeds is somewhat stilted, as a student during the mid eighties I would visit friends for the weekend in Manchester. Having only two pennies to rub together meant catching a coach that would stop off en-route in Leeds to pick up other passengers. We stopped each time at dark o’clock outside a gay pub called the ‘Klondyke’ which was in the back of beyond and provided much gawping for the somewhat sheltered and naïve students on board. For me Leeds is the land of perpetual darkness and freak shows, I have not been back since.
111 - I got that booklet a week ago.
Doorstep report from the Blue ‘burbs of Outer London.
Absolutely no change. Locked on Blue. Even those who think Boris is a burk are still almost to a man(or women) making pledges if for no other basis that they hate Ken even more.
LD’s will also score much better on the Assembly than in the Mayorals as the squeeze on Paddick tightens (Can’t believe how easy it has been to convince wavering non politico LDs to go this way and get the best of both worlds !)
Have just reopened a position on Boris from a square book.
Unless Ken has got his inner London heartlands COMPLETELY sewn up AND he can get an unfathomably high turn out there, he’s gone.
Even if he has and can, he’s in serious trouble/it may not be enough.
108- No one forces you to buy anything and no one forces you to sell anything. I am not sure these things should necessarily be legislated for.
But if you are trying to run a business turning away prospective customers makes little business sense.
119 Even if he has got his heartland sewn up, and can get a huge turnout there, voter registration is still significantly less in Inner London than in Outer London.
Not got time to read thru all the posts so sorry if you’ve all seen this.
Three stabbed at kebab shop Jacqui said was safe
http://tinyurl.com/55uhov
119 - it annoys me how people who live in the suburbs (and therefore aren’t real Londoners) will foist on us a Mayor from the Shires - i.e. someone they have more in common with!
@120:
Peter2′, can you answer my question at 108 then?
120 Unless it’s a niche business. But for most businesses, turning down customers for irrelevant reasons would not be an attractive option.
@125:
Maybe they were worried that it might lead to a sudden outbreak of Gay in Harrogate. The council would have to have the entire town debagged and cleansed.
113. There were problems when he tried to run for US President:
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/atrios/jesusbush.jpg
Weak, softy liberal.
123 In what way are inhabitants of Outer London not real Londoners? They pay taxes to the Mayor, so they’ve absolutely every moral right to vote in this election.
120 - you shouldn’t be free to discriminate in the provision of services based on clearly objectionable prejudices. It simply isn’t civilised.
Nick - is there the correlation that there was last time around between position on the left-right scale* and level of smiliness? With the lefties a picture of gleeful happiness , UKIP sullen and the BNP candidate a mask of rage?
*with all the usual caveats that it’s over-simplistic etc…
123. I bet most of London’s wealth is generated by people who live in the suburbs.
123: As opposed to those in Central London imposing Ken on the rest of London?
111. “Didn’t notice anyone bothering to endorse their fellow-candidates for the Assembly.”
Presumably there are rules about that, since the booklet is for mayoralty only?
123-I resent your comment
I have lived in an outer London Borough all my life and commute into London every day.
I consider myself as much of a londoner as anyone who lives in Inner London where i went to school.
If Boris gets elected all he will do is be fair to all of London rather than forget about the outer london boroughs which he has done apart from tax raising for the last 8 years.
Mike
No
Malcolm
129-It certainly isn’t civilised but the state should not tell you to whom you should sell/buy from no less than it should tell you at what prices/profit you should sell.
If blacks/gays/Martians have trouble getting a hotel bed in Harrogate I am sure an enterprising hotelier would soon cover this market niche. Ny suspicion is that any hoteliers with such prejudices are already losing trade, it’s their profit margins that suffer.
111: ‘Bertie Wooster confronted with a piece by Spinoza’
Though unlike Bertie - and I presume most of the other Mayoral candidates - Boris can read Spinoza in the original Latin.
@136:
So, essentially, if a hotel wants to turn a black couple away, that’s fine because it’s a matter of personal conscience?
10 Flasher
In years to come how will people judge you?
Malcolm
139. About the same - although I’m starting from a very low base
132 - many people who live in Greater London lead lives that are more akin to those in the provinces than in the actual metropolis. For example, they’re terribly attached to their cars. They have little interest in the cosmopolitan and cultural vibrancy the capital offers. They could just as easily live in a totally different part of the country. I don’t feel I have much in common with those parts of Greater London. I don’t like being lumped in with them so much. I moved here for a reason.
Went to a Rock Against Racism gig in Potternewton Park in the early eighties. The Specials were the headline act. I also remember Misty in Roots being excellent with their superb reggae Wurlitzer sound (and they seemed to have about twenty odd members on stage at any one time, playing tag from an unknown number backstage).
136 - why shouldn’t “the state” do that? You need to appreciate that some of us don’t share your basic presumptions about law and society.
141 - warning - partially intended as a wind-up
141. SBB, I used to think you were a wise and sensible poster who, while coming from a different political viewpoint, nevertheless made important and insightful comments. Now I realise I mistook you for stodge.
Your prejudice against anyone who doesn’t see London the way you do is infantile.
141 Here’s the deal. We hive off all the grotty bits of Inner London into a separate city, and then Ken can get elected there.
@143:
As far as I’m concerned, establishing acceptable norms for trade is one of the state’s most important roles.
Al Gore for President? No, no, and thrice no.
He was a bad candidate in 2000, he would be worse now that his Oscar proves he’s a Hollywood liberal. Also, with the debate over whether to seat Michigan and Florida - he struggled to win them in 2000 - I can’t see Detroit going with the king of the Environmentalists.
He should have won easily in 2000, and didn’t even carry his home state. He is not as good an orator as Obama, more of a Clintonian hangover than Clinton, and has the fundraising capability of neither. If the Democrats choose him, they will be guarenteeing John McCain the White House.
ON THE PROJECT - Rod, thanks for the advice, much appreciated. Thanks to all others who have commented. I agree with almost all of you that many of the swing states favour one side quite heavily, but want the net wide. I’m really concerned with whether I’ve missed a state that could be won by either side.
For the record, I have the following ‘Swingable states’:
Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Washington, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Connecticut, Oregon, Iowa, Arkansas, Kansas, West Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Montana, North Dakota.
A couple of people have mentioned New Jersey as being as winnable for the Republicans as Michigan. The only other one I’m tempted to add is North Carolina (imagine an Obama-Edwards ticket - Af-Am vote plus Edwards as favourite son, v McCain). What do people think? Add NJ and NC to swingables? Any others?
Those two would take me to 26/51 swingables - but if I wait until Obama or Clinton concedes, I can possibly take away Arkansas and West Virginia if it’s Obama who wins the nomination, and North Carolina and Montana if its Clinton who wins the nomination.
The sort of work I want to do is to calculate % chance of candidate D winning the election overall if they win state X by Y%. That could give us some early numbers on the night, by juxtaposing (with brackets) the effect of ’swing’ in semi-safe states - a relational database if you will. I also want a precise % likelihood of an Electoral College tie for my own fun!
The added benefit will be with this much data, I can feed through the census information in 2010 to get a headstart on how re-apportionment will affect the mid-term Congressional elections.
All thoughts and comments welcome!
76.
I don’t think so. They certainly love Al Gore, which is a bit awkward because my problem is not really with the Democrats, but with Gore. If I was an American voter, I might vote for Obama, would very likely vote for Bill Clinton.
@146:
Problem is, in between all the grotty bits of inner London, are Lots of nice bits. I mean, you can’t hive off my borough (Tower Hamlets) without losing Canary Wharf, Limehouse, Spitalfields…
And, of course, you’d be waving goodbye to Westminster, The City…
136 - So presumably you also think that a private company should be allowed to refuse to sell a patented product, on which it has a monopoly, to black people, or gays? Like, say, a life-saving medicine?
sky news very interesting on todays strikes. everything revolves around the fact that nobody accepts the govt inflation figure. the 2.5% of CPI is so divorced from the reality of personal inflation that it is now causing serious problems. every teacher interviewed cited increasing costs as the reason they need a pay rise. the govt needs to recognise the fact that CPI is a discredited measure of inflation or it will face much more idustrial unrest.
150 Well Stonch will just have to live with the fact that London contains people who don’t vote the way he does, then.
148. Evan Bayh as VP could put Indiana in play. In fact a whole host of popular VP choices could potentially add a 5-10% swing in any state. Bear in mind that McCain has a list of about 20 he’s looking at, most of which probably haven’t been suggested in the media, and both Obama and Clinton will have similar length shortlists.
138-Yes
143-Acceptable norms of trade should not force you to engage in a trade you do not want to undertake.
@152:
Let’s pray it doesn’t.
I rather startled a Trot in the pub last night when I said I thought the motivation behind the strike is entirely just. When Trots and Tories can make common cause over the government’s preferred inflation lie, you know they’ve got a problem.
111.
The English Democrats are a real disappointment. Their contribution was supposed to pull English nationalism aware from the bigotry and racism with which it was previously associated (ie not become a BNP just for England), but all they’ve done is transplant racism for jockism.
148. I’d probably put New Hampshire in McCain’s column. If he doesn’t win there, he’s not going to be President.
157 They’re a ridiculous bunch.
155. It should if you are publicly advertising the sale of goods or services and your sole reason for stopping the transaction is discrimination.
123
I agree with you,I would be more than happy for the suburbs not to be considered part of London; I would very happy to forgo my Mayoral vote,my London Assembly vote in exchange for not paying for the GLA charge (up 150% in 8 years) and for not being forced to pay for the Olympics simply because of where I live.