YouGov poll has Labour down to 26%
April 24th, 2008
Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead
The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc)
The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when the Guardian monthly survey reported just a 5% lead.
As I have argued here repeatedly here much of the change in opinion polls is driven by media coverage. In the days leading up to last weekend, when the ICM fieldwork was taking place, the opposition was hardly in the news and the political headlines were largely taken up with Gordon Brown’s visit to the US.
This week, of course, we have had the threat of the tax rebellion and a lot of focus on the Tories. Cameron has appeared a lot in the media which appears to be a big driver.
The big issue is what does this say about next Thursday local elections and the big battle in London. Can Labour in the capital duck out of the national trend? Or is this just YouGov - the objective of much left wing criticism at the moment.
But remember Smithson’s rule: as I always say when there is a sensational polling movement “A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.”
Mike Smithson
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mike, thats an 18-point tory lead
2. I want two more Gordon’s. You won’t here that often.
OK Mike, I know you don’t believe in ‘rogue polls’. But ONE of those polls - this one and the ICM one - MUST be rogue. More likely, they’re both a bit off, and the ‘true’ value is somewhere in the middle.
Truly brilliant result for the Tories though, I can’t disagree with that!
Yes - all done. I’m not used to working with such big numbers!
Rod Crosby - I was joking on previous thread. your comments are very helpful. I do await you declaring a Tory majority with glee
Thank you.
three rows of six gordons might look more elegant
The second story here is Labour on 26% and Lib Dems on 17%. If the Lib Dems get their act together they could really be threatening Labour.
It looks more and more like the time to get rid of Gordon will come soon…Labour will need to have the balls to do it.
I’ve been to the offie and bought and extra bottle of french red for tonight to dull the pain. How can two respected pollsters have Tory leads of only 5% and 18% days apart? summat not quite right.
on Anthony Wells swingometer, this gets
Con 402 seat
Lab 190
LD 29
Others 11
Conservative majority 172
This is staggering. I would have thought that if this is anything close to the true picture then Labour are going to have a bad evening one week hence. This is probably Labour’s worst nightmare. Incidentally the Conservative lead is now larger than the Lib Dem share…
I would quite like some bathroom tiles made to that design. Cheer me up in the morning.
re 7. I agree Oliver. Unfortunately I originally put this up as 16 Gordons in a nice square - then I realised I had got my sums wrong.
8. But as I said on the last thread, the Lib Dems HAVENT got their act together, they don’t seem to be picking up any Labour deserters at all.
I’d be even more fed up as a Lib Dem than a Labour person at the moment, at least labour have a reason for being in trouble.
8. in 1987, Labour got 26%, Lib-Dems got 25%, yet Labour got ten times as any seats as the Lib-Dems
Woof!
Until confirmation is forthcoming it would be sensible to treat this as a possible rogue. It’s really out of line with other recent polls…
Central probabilistic forecast (YouGov)
Con 389
Lab 180
LD 37
Nats 23 (SNP +13%)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Conservative majority of 133
6-poll moving average
Con 331
Lab 238
LD 42
Nats 18
Oth 3
NI 13
Conservative majority of 17
16 - That is so, but I think if the Lib Dems and Labour were close in vote share now I think that the gap would be a lot less.
Evening all
Re: 3 - Indeed, Alasdair, and the difference in Conservative share of 5% and Labour share of 8% is well beyond MoE. Mike tries to explain it away in terms of media narrative but I simply don’t buy that degree of churn or volatility. One or two percent maybe but not this.
On these figures, of course, this is 1983 landslide territory for the Conservatives and a catastrophic night next week for Labour and a pretty bad one for the Lib Dems too I might add.
I’ve done a couple of night’s canvassing this week in south London and, apathy aside, the anti-Ken vote is very strong. The second preferences among the Conservatives are strong for Paddick and UKIP and, more worryingly for some, the BNP.
I’ll be surprised if labour are that low when it comes to a GE, short of the party being declared as an animal cruelty society.
Tories at 44%? Maybe but thats outer limit. 42% I can see as more likely.
_The second preferences among the Conservatives are strong for Paddick and UKIP and, more worryingly for some, the BNP._
If these are 2nd P’s from the conservatives they won’t be counted.
15 As I corrected you on the last thread the Conservatives have not picked up any labour deserters , the changes in Yougov from last December are Labour minus 6 Conservatives minus 1 LD plus 3 Others plus 4 . If you look at the detailed data from Comres/ICM/Populus polls they all show a consistent net movement from Labour to LibDem from how they voted in 2005 to now .
16. Those figures are inaccurate. the closet we have ver come ( in doverns times ) was 1983 which from memory was about 26% alliance 28% Labour. But your basic point is valid. Unless the party has developed enough target seats it won’t have any boats to be floated by a rising anti labour tide.
after all the big break through against the tories in 1997 came with a smaller vote share than 1992
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40.2% .. Lab 31.4% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 10.4%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 314 seats .. Lab 256 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 32.
Con 12 seats short of a majority.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
18. Probably, but Labour would still be way far ahead, remeber, the big Lib-Dem boost in the last election was largely due to weak performances from the top two. With a resurgent Conservative party, it’s hard to see the Lib dems making gains
19 Why would Tory 2nd preferences matter?
23 Indeed. In my view they could be looking at big advances against Labour if that was a true picture. Their targetting has moved on a bit since 1983….
Doubt the tories are that far ahead, however this 10p row has damaged the government. Brown now looks even more dithery than before, and the solution they’ve come up with seems to be shrowded in mystery. Frank Field thinks it’s fine, however no details have been released. This will give Cameron even more ammo to use against Brown, not only has he dithered and delayed, now he can’t even reveal the solution to his mess!
25 - I think there is a case for suggesting that the Lib Dems will stage a retreat in the South West, South Central and will push ahead in the North East and North. I think that on the basis of polls like this and anecdotal evidence there could be some very interesting results next time.
re 17 You are doing it again Rod. This poll is not out of line with other YouGov polls. You can only compare the numbers from one poll with another produced in the same way. This is just showing one 2% movement.
22. Mark I appreciate loyalty but are you on some kind of hallucingenic drug?. can you please repost the You Gov figures or if you prefer a poll of poll averages with percentage changes from the 2005 GE vote shares and pray tell who is up and who is down?
Mike. If the system allows, suggest you put a yellow Gordon for every 5 points. Will make future changes much easier for you - and a highly appropriate colour.
14.Mike, I think that you have created an image that might become quite an iconic statement of the political landscape. How does Gordon Brown and the Labour party deal with these kind of poll figures, its going to be interesting.
17.”Until confirmation is forthcoming it would be sensible to treat this as a possible rogue. It’s really out of line with other recent polls…”
Rod, I disagree. It would be a rogue if it was out of line with the political narrative rather than other recent polls. Polls can, and will be volatile as they reflect the headlines and voters reactions to them. I suspect that Mike’s analysis is on the money as usual on this.
But remember that a week is a long time in politics.
A lot can happen between now and next Thursday….
The Tories would be wise not to be complacent
Gordon Brown and his obsessive trait to wrongfoot the Tories has been rumbled again and the public are waking up to the kind of man he is.
29 Spot on
A double whammy:
A poll in the scottish edition of the Daily Mail alas I cannot see a link. The Herald website mentions it:
‘Support for the SNP is now running at record levels, according to poll findings today. Nearly a year after the party won power at Holyrood, there is no sign that its honeymoon with voters is fading.
Instead, the reverse has happened and the party is now running seven points ahead of Labour in constituency voting intentions, according the poll by Progressive Scottish Opinion for the Scottish Daily Mail. The poll, which questioned 1,004 voters between April 15 and April 22, suggests support for Alex Salmond`s party in the constituency vote is running at 40%, compared to the 33% it achieved in May`s election.
The survey gives the Party a seven point lead over Labour on 33 per cent, with the Tories on 13 per cent and the LibDems on 10 per cent.’
The poll conducted by Scottish Opinion,questionned 1,004 voters in all 73 Scottish Parliament constituencies between April 15th and April 22nd. The Scottish Parliament constituency vote (change since 2007 in brackets) figures in full:
SNP: 40% (+7)
Lab: 33% (+1)
Con: 13% (-4
Lib: 10% (-6)
Gre: 3%
SSP: 1%
I cannot see a Westminster intention.
Looks like a fair few Cabinet members could go down if the results mirror this. I would suggest that the Home Secretary will not make it, likewise Ruth Kelly would be a casualty, there are probably lots of others…
If this result is repeated next Thursday when ‘real’ people vote, then I can’t see Brown remaining as PM. If he does better, then I think he will take Labour into the next election, though I can’t see any chance of a majority at that election. I still think a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party is the best bet though.
A 5% or an 18% lead, a bit of a difference?
Looks like a major showdown in the telephone Vs internet pollsters.
There is real apathy on the doorstep primarily amongst the Labour voters but also amongst some Lib Dem voters. In contrast the Conservative vote is more solid with fewer of the true blue tories spouting the “MadAsaHeffer” stuff on the doorstep.
The Lib Dems are missing out on the anti-Labour shift because they use up media space with attacks on the Conservatives. All coalitions with Labour in councils should be ruled out as the poisoned Labour brand is contaminating everyone associated with it.
16/18. General Election - 1987:
Conservative: 42.2%
Labour: 30.8%
SDP-Liberal Alliance: 22.6%
Others 4.4%
Labour are heading towards Conservative Mid 90’s levels now! There must now be the real risk of Labour meltdown next Thursday?
This may have been covered in the past, but my recollection from statistics 40 years ago is that the standard deviation of a random sample is the square root of the number in the sample. Also that in a normal type distribution, it was something like a 95% probability the true answer lay within +/- the standard deviation.
Hence a random sample of 1,000 electors would give a standard deviation of 32, which is +/- 3.2%. A sample of 2,000 gives a standard deviation of 45 or 2,2% and a 10,000 sample has a standard deviation of 100 or 1%.
Is my recollection reasonably accurate and this is the basis for the margins of error quoted in these polls?
41. sry, i said the wrong election. it was 1983 i was referring to, the numbers were 27.6% labour, 25.4% lib-dem, 209 seats to labour, 23 seats to the lib-dems
This is funny, RodCrosby of “it’s in line with recent polls” fame - when it’s bad for the Tories, like ICM on Monday, he’s on here in SECONDS saying how normal it is.
But, when THIS Yougov poll appears, he says this:
“71. Woof!
Until confirmation is forthcoming it would be sensible to treat this as a possible rogue. It’s really out of line with recent polls.”
Basically, for RodCrosby, if it’s good for the Tories it’s “a rogue”, if it’s bad for the Tories, it’s “in line with recent polls”.
Idiot.
58-Morus- from previous thread- thanks very much Morus. A very informative answer.
On thread- an appalling poll for Labour.
Mike- can you please bring back the smiling Dave’s- alot more uplifting than seeing a page of scowling Gordies.
Thankyou in advance.
Tyson (comrade)
35 P. Collinson “Gordon Brown and his obsessive trait to wrongfoot the Tories has been rumbled again and the public are waking up to the kind of man he is.”
The more times Brown tries these “strategic tactics” the worse the polls get for him. Triangulation has become Strangulation.
Conservatives used to say a prayer for Ming, these days they thank the lord for Brown.
Obviously a great result for the Tories, but as has been mentioned the discrepancy with ICM (and even Populus and Comm Res) is stark. Yougov have shown greater volitility in both directions, but that doesn’t mean they are wrong.
Just a thought to throw in. Pollsters base their models on past situations. I.e. they see how accurate their methodology was in the past and make revisions accordingly. This works well in times of relative political stasis. However when big shifts in opinion take place the old assumptions may no longer be valid, the model may no longer work. This is the problem with making such extensive revisions to the raw data. It won’t be possible to tell who is right until a GE, and by that time the pollsters may have converged again.
IF yougov are proved accurate regarding the Mayoral elections on Thursday, then Labour should be very worried indeed… Thursday is going to tell us an awful lot about which pollsters we can trust in the run up to the next election.
there must be room for a market on ICM vs YouGov;
reputations really are on the line with the apparent consistent difference in results between these two. It just adds another layer of interest to next week’s results!
obviously there is nothing very surprising about this poll, least of all Mark Senior’s response to it; it’s going to be a horrible 15 years for you Mark if you can’t be like Ken and reconcile yourself to the good guys winning.
45. Although Rod may have somewhat suspect views on the Holocaust, his statistical analsis is excellent and a welcome addition to the site. Just because you disagree with how he intreprets the polls doesn’t mean you need to descend into personal abuse.
How low will Labour’s vote share go next Thursday? In 2004, 2006 and 2007 their precentage of the vote dropped into the mid 20’s, but their opinion poll ratings were in the 30’s. Now we see YouGov dropping them down to the mid 20’s, with other pollsters having them in the high 20’s. A low 20’s share of the national vote next Thursday looks very possible to me?
29 James Burdett “The Lib Dems will stage a retreat in the South West, South Central and will push ahead in the North East and North. I think that on the basis of polls like this and anecdotal evidence there could be some very interesting results next time.”
The problem for the Lib Dems is that they are still focusing far too much effort in battles with the Conservatives and not enough Vs Labour. In one of the Lib Dems main northern redoubts, Liverpool, there is a chance they may lose control to Labour at a time of national declines in Labour’s support. Just 3 years ago they squandered resources on the “decapitation” strategy.
(sits back for senior Mark to quote some obscure parish by election last week).
19 Absolutely spot on Stonch. Particularly re the BNP (from disgruntled ex Labour voters too)
I think they will get 3 seats on the GLA (dependent on the Greens making 5% - UKIP have gone to dust for this one)
45 - It is inline with yougov polls. IIRC there have been a number of yougov polls showing 16 point leads, 18 isn’t statistically different. In contrast the biggest ICM lead was 13 points.
ICM and yougov may not be producing ‘rogues’, the differences are more likely to reflect systematic biases in their respective methodologies.
ICM has shown leads in the 5-13 point range, yougov 12-18 point range.
Just checked electrocalculus (all caveats - encumbency, personal support, regional and local variance etc etc apply) and these are the notable Lab/Lib Dem MP’s at risk according to them.
: Tessa Jowell
: Stephen Pound
: Christopher Huhne
: Alistair Darling
: Bill Rammell
: Tony McNulty
: Andrew Dismore
: Geraldine Smith
: Charles Clarke
: Jim Fitzpatrick
: Jacqui Smith
: Jim Murphy
: Susan Kramer
: Nick Clegg
: Fiona Mactaggart
: John Denham
: Barbara Follett
: Andrew Mackinlay
: Sadiq Khan
: Karen Buck
46- apologies Mike for annoying 2 of your more esteemed posters, Nick Cohen, and Julia Clark. All in a day’s work at pbCOM.
Hope that this will go against you stopping to use these sulking, downtrodden Gordons again.
Much appreciated- Tyson (comrade)
47. Brown has desperately been trying to catch the Tories in a pincer movement with Toryish policies, and it’s bloody stupid. His first year as PM should have been about rallying the base and Lib Dems around him, making inroads into the Conservative vote could have come later.
56. What on earth would the Lib Dems do if Clegg and Huhne both lost their seats?
48. Remember the weekend Populus poll agev the Conservatives a 10% lead (the biggest every lead for the Tories with Populus) 10% with Populus could easily become 15% with YouGov. Since then we’ve also had the tax row fiasco.
Putting Populus and YouGov together, I believe ICM is looking out in a limb, personally.
56 - Being facetious but elect another leader. Can’t see Clegg losing though. A very bad election would probably increase the chances of a Kennedy come-back
59 Begin to strongly recover when they re-appoint Charles Kennedy
On these kind of figures, the Conservatives would be winning Crewe and Nantwich at the general election, never mind a by-election.
44. The stand-out stat. for me at the 1987 election was:
Alliance votes in England = 6.25 million worth 10 seats;
Labour votes in Scotland = 1.25 million worth 50 seats.
Re: 21 & 26: For people who claim to be involved in politics, you plainly don’t know a lor about campaigning. Canvassing is an information-gathering exercise.
I would say no more than 5% of people in London you talk to even know they have a second preference vote and of that number, only a fraction (one person so far) understands the significance of that vote or otherwise.
So you tell the Tory they have a second preference vote and ask who they would give it to. I have never heard any Conservative say they will vote Labour as second preference. Some say UKIP or BNP - for me, they are “anti” and will always be so (I speak as an LD).
IF, however, they say “Lib Dem” (as many do, James) then the inference I draw is that they are reachable under the right circumstances. This isn’t information for now but can be used if and when the Conservatives are vulnerable or defensive - that may be during the GE in a LD seat or marginal but more likely if and when the next Conservative Government runs into trouble.
These are the “swing” voters who may well be the first to become disillusioned when the Cameron Government fails to deliver and the first to perhaps come looking in your direction.
What many on here don’t understand is that in politics you aren’t always fighting this battle - you are laying the ground for the next battle which will be fought on much more favourable terms.
56. From what I’ve seen of the regional polling in recent months Clegg is safe. No sign of a switch from Con to Libdem in the north. If anything there is a switch from Lab to Libdem.
However Huhne on the other hand may need to rely on his personal popularity as there seems to have been a switch from Libdem to Con in the south.
Of course the regional figures are dubious for many reasons so its hard to tell if either are really under threat. The same is true for any of Labour’s Scottish MP’s (Darling etc).
51. Eh?
It’s hardly personal abuse Socrates. Don’t get so bl00dy precious.
Ever thought that his reputation for “good statistical analysis” might also give him good insulation from criticism?
He’s not perfect. It’s silly spinning - ridiculous.
He has an established reputation for calling any poll which is good for the Tories as a “rogue”.
As other posters have said, it’s in line with other Yougov polls and ICM polls of the recent past.
That should be to 59 (not myself!)
;o)
I always like remembering that the Tories often do a point or two better and the Socialists a point or two worse than the polls show, so I like entering on electoral calculus the vote shares predicted by that fact: in this case, Con 46, Lab 24, LD 17. This gives a Con majority of 238, though even in this happy circumstance, Glasgow is still all Labour and Broon still keeps his seat!
59, start making progress?:p
They could make Cable leader, and actually start punching above their weight.
The other resource we all have in interpreting the validity of different polls is our own political nous. This is the worst Labour poll/biggest Tory lead for years. Is that consistent with the political climate?
The economy is in trouble, house prices are falling, Labour are in the middle of a third term and PM Brown is dire. Should that translate into these kind of polling figures? Go figure.
We’re a week away from Locals so we will soon see who is producing voodoo polls. If the results indicate yougov is right there could well be civil war in the Labour camp.
I do not believe Brown will resign, and I am sure he will resist the Labour equivalent of the men in grey suits coming for him. 42 days will be a gonner. Personally, I think he will limp on regardless. I think Major knew he was toast from 1994-95, nothing in Brown’s demeanour suggests he will accept he is. The question is, will getting rid of Brown be enough to save Labour (I think no), will getting rid of Brown and calling a snap election save Labour (I think no, but may save some MPs), will getting rid of Brown and no snap election save Labour (could be worse than keeping Brown).
If yougov is even clsoe to true then Labour are going into dark unchartered territories.
59. Fail back on Ming..
62 celebrate at the chance to elect Cable, by far their best MP.
19.”a catostrophic night for Labour next week and a pretty bad one for the lib Dems”
Yes to the former although because apart from Wales councils are only electing thirds and also because Labour has relativeky few councils left paticularly in districts the number of losses will be nowhere the scale of 2007.Most likely English results c 175-200 losses and for councils loss of Barnsley,Hartlepool,Reading, Warrington and Nuneaton and possibly Sheffield and Oldham.
As far as lib dems are concerned Labours weakness should allow the Lib dems to gain 2nd place in vote share and gain 30 seats from Labour plus councils of Warrington and possibly Sheffield and Oldham(and in Wales maybe Cardiff.However overall Lib dems seats standstill because of Tory gains from them.
Tories clear winners,45% vote share c 175-200 seats plus councils of Bury Ntyneside,Solihull,Fhurrock,Basingstoke,Crewe,Gosport,Maidstone,Nuneaton,Penwith and possibly Cheltenham.
Of course we dont yet know how the 10p u turn will affect voting/turn out for Labour.And finally cuurent weather outlook for lst may not encouraging which could deprees turnout even further.
Rogerh
53
‘The problem for the Lib Dems is that they are still focusing far too much effort in battles with the Conservatives and not enough Vs Labour.’
Difficult for the Lib Dems to attack Labour as in reality they are two versions of the same leftie offering,only the Lib Dems are a more extreme version.
65. The Tories have 1 councillor in Sheffield so I suggest getting an MP in Sheffield may be beyond them.
The LD’s have routed the Tory local government base in Hallam and Clegg isn’t going anywhere. Sadly.
Maybe the YouGov panel over-represents the middle-classes who voted for New Labour under Blair and are now switching back to the Tories. The big problem with YouGov is there is obviously a “type” of person that signs up to be on the YouGov panel and it probably doesn’t include flat-capped northerners with whippits (to give a patronisingly stereotypical example). Maybe the telephone pollsters reach the parts that YouGov can’t reach.
Re: 70 - I’m reminded that in May 1979, after one of the most socially and industrially disrupted winters of all time, Labour still polled 36%. Indeed, one could argue that Margaret Thatcher’s victory was built not on Labour collapse but Liberal collapse (down from 19% in Oct 1974 to 14% in 1979).
MY view has always been that if the Lib Dems can hold on to around 35-40 seats, it will be a strong base from which to build when the Cameron Government hits trouble which, on the record of the 1970 and 1979 Tory victories, should be around 2012-13.
74-Think the news leader will be the London race. Second the projected national share.
I can see an embittered Ken blaming Brown for his loss.
Morus – here’s my ‘states in play’ calculations for Obama vs McCain, I’ve also done a Clinton one for comparison’s sake –
OBAMA vs McCAIN
DEMOCRATS: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine (definitely not a swing state), New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Maryland, DC, Delaware, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, California, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii (206 EV)
REPUBLICANS: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Arizona, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming (206 EV)
‘SWING’: New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, North Dakota, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska (126 EV)
As even as you can get at this stage.
CLINTON vs McCAIN
DEMOCRATS: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine (definitely not a swing state), Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Maryland, DC, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, California, Hawaii (167 EV)
REPUBLICANS: Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kansas, North Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, Arizona, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Alaska (200 EV)
‘SWING’: New Hampshire, New Jersey, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington (171 EV)
More states in play but Clinton starts further behind.
66. Why do people always assume those with different views to theirs “spinning”, i.e. deliberately writing a false point of view? Isn’t it possible that Rod genuinely believes the Conservative lead isn’t as big as some of the polls suggest?
I’d be very careful of predicting Labour disaster next week. I dont know the full breakdowns of where is up for election but Labour are weak as it is in many areas of local government and depending, may not have much more to drop.
As for London, Boris can do it, but will he?
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106801/Gallup-Daily-Democratic-Gap-Narrows-Obama-Keeps-Advantage.aspx
Re: 74 - NO elections in Penwith this year, Roger, pending the new unitary authority elections in Cornwall next year (which the Conservatives might well win).
58 - It’s very interesting the way the Blair strategy has been neutered one the Tories stopped playing ball.
What characterised Blair was never an attempt to “outflank” the Tories, but exploit an pathological need within the Conservative Party to seek “clear blue water”. Hence the further right that Blair went, the more the Conservatives were marginalised.
It has taken a Conservative leader to finally stand his ground, and not take shame in being to the left of the Labour Party, to show up the strategy for what it was. And the fact that Brown blunders on regardless suggests that he really never understood the strategy in the first place.
Statistics can be used to prove anything Socrates…81% of all people know that.
77-I think back in the 1980s the Tories had seats where they had few if any councillors though it did presage a collapse in their vote later on.
I think of more note are areas where there are Labour MPs and few if any councillors.
43. Slightly off there. You are mixing up your standard errors and confidence intervals. 1/SQRT(N) is an approximation of the 95% confidence interval for a 50%:50% split poll. It’s just a rule of thumb that is not much use in the real world.
The standard error of a percentage in general is SQRT(p*(1-p)/N), and the 95% confidence interval is +/-1.96 times this result.
Essentially the 95% confidence interval is plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean…..
Also remeber how dire 2004 was in most of the Mets and that they have been out of power for a few years in some areas. I’m witnessing lots of extra labour leaflets and more activists out because of the above. they are after all local elections.
If anyone knows what time ACTUAL QT starts please post. Not the show.
81-I really don’t understand the fascination with labelling ND, Montana and Alaska as swing. They are and will be safely in the Rep column. I’ll take anyone up on a £10 bet on that.
Morus. Might I suggest five groupings :
Safe Red - Rep lead by 10%+
Safe Blue - Dem lead by 10%+
Lean Red - Rep Lead by 5-10%
Lean Blue - Dem lead by 5-10%
Purple - Under 5% Too close to call.
90 - That might impact the odd ward here and there, however you really cannot buck a prevailing trend.
82. Socrates - Mike Smithson has commented on Rod’s tendency to do this in the past.
dog rosby says 12 seat Tory majority! For that read 112 seat majority. There is a god!
I feel really sorry for Frank Field, today, clearly Brown has given him a load of spiel and Field has fallen for it. It is a shame as it has sullied his otherwise straight talking reputation. I can’t see Labour MPs believing a word Brown says from here on in and quite right to the man will lie just for the fun of it.
Channel four sticking the boot into Boris.
New Rasmussen Presidential poll for Minnesota :
McCain 42% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 38% .. Obama 52%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election
95. Mike is wrong also, if you report him correctly. I don’t have a tendency to do anything but treat all polls with caution….
Sorry that goes over some people’s (hot)heads.
95. No, Mike has always argued that Rod is wrong, not that he is wilfully distorting things.
93-I think there are a few wildcard states, maybe starred (*) states which are purple for whatever reason, maybe a +/-5% moniker?
eg: Arkansas (if Hilary stands)
Michigan (will they feel disenfranchised if their votes don’t count)
WV (more in play if Hilary stands)
NH (”unpredictable”)
IN (if Bayh is VP)
NJ, Ct (if Giuliani/Pataki VP)…
Unfortunately permutations can be endless…
91. Wouldn’t it have been recorded last night?
Or…. have I got the wrong end of the stick?
92. I thought North Dakota’s electoral votes could be split for a while, one of which could go to Obama, but I was getting confused with Nebraska. Sorry if I misled others!
one caveat about using the locals to decide who the “right” pollster is, Locals and Ges are very differnt, and get very different results. Lets say the results next week are exactly the same as 2004 (not a prediction, just for the sake of argument)
The polling numbers immediately before the May 04 elections were:
YouGov/Telegraph (29/04) Con 39 Lab 35 LD 19
MORI (19/04) Con 34 Lab 36 LD 22
ICM/Guardian (18/04) Con 33 Lab 38 LD 22
Of course, Labour got all of 22% in the Euro’s held that day!
Labour had a very bad week ahead of 2004, so that could explain the diffrences
103
Casino I don’t think so, I am watching the warm up bloke now. May be wrong.
93. I think people are missing what Morus is after. He’s not trying to identify which are on-edge states at the moment, but what could possibly swing under any circumstances, including landslides.
New Siena College Research Institute Poll for New York State :
McCain 42% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 40% .. Obama 45%
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/SNY_08April22_RL.pdf
46. Tyson. Your good natured even handedness never ceases to amaze me. You are an example to….well, me.
82 (previous thread) ROFL - nice one Rod!
The LDs are very good at bye-elections. Different leaflets for different parts of the constituency….seriously the business. Respect.
However, they can’t seem to see that their optimum national stratagey is to hammer the major party that is struggling; ie the tories from 1992 til 2005 and now new lab. The only sensible time to kick a man is when he is down.
Are they too stupid? Too much idealistic purity?
An amazing poll, and I am still blinking. Shy socialists? Possibly.
The most intriguing thing for me is the ability of Lib Dem supporters to assume that they are somehow immune from political swings. IF the Tories poll 44% at the general election and IF the Lib Dems poll 17%, the Lib Dems will suffer carnage. I don’t expect that but the polls should scare Lib Dems witless. They are in a very dangerous place.
Last month on PbC, the discussion here centred on what figure constituted the ‘Labour Core Vote’ IIRC a figure in the region of 26% was suggested? However, there were also some people here saying the Polls would not drop below 30%. Ho hum!
Realistically, could we see Labour’s share drop further and just for interest, what has been their lowest poll rating since 1997?
101. Eh?
Socrates - you should know better, you’re an intelligent guy.
Rod knows what he’s doing. He has his own views. And he’s not stupid.
I think he (wilfully or not) knows his reputation for statistical brilliance gives him extra credibility in ’spinning’ lines, or giving his slanted opinion, on polls - and that makes me cross.
Why do it? And why refer to the poll as a “rogue” in clear defiance of Smithsons rule?
It’s silly. I think it’s idiotic.
That’s why I used the words I did. And I stand by that.
108-I appreciate state polls at this stage mean little or nothing but it seems a surprisingly good showing for McCain in NY.
98 “Channel four sticking the boot into Boris.”
Nothing new there then.
113 - Aside from this, probably last months YouGov figure.
113
If the Labour voters interviewed last night on Newsnight were any guide (low paid hit by withdrawal of 10% band) - and they may be - Labour could lose 1/3rd of its core vote - temporarily.
Vote Brown: he taxes the poor … has a certain ring to it.
116, not seen that, but I lost a hell of a lot of respect for the Snow-man when he whined like a fool over not being able to reveal Prince Harry’s whereabouts.
For the record does anyone know the last time a national poll had Labour at 26%?
115. I’ve been saying McCain is a good trading buy for ages on pb.com
Obama/Clinton are by no means a shoe-in this November.
115 Peter2. Some of McCains score in New England are pretty respectable. Perhaps some GOP tick up as he’s not Dubya !!
…………………….
Marc Ambinder reports that Obama has added another two super delegates - Audra Ostergard of Nebraska and Congressman David Wu of Oregon.
This poll is much more accurate. The previous ICM poll was a rogue. Labour have put the knife in to voters over the last few months and recently rubbed salt in to their wounds. I expect Labour to fall to 23-24%.
Stodge & Tory Boy - nice to hear your canvassing stories about meeting BNP voters.
Latest on London Elections;
Patriots Billboards go up across London. Toot if you drive by one.
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/04/24/another-first-as-bnp-billboards-go-up-in-london/
Large press conference to held on Monday. Event will be attended by Leading Patriots from all across Europe - Including Austria’s Freedom Party, France’s Front National etc. Publicity, publicity, publicity…………..
64 Calm down. Now understand your thoughts. How are things looking for the Lib Dems in those intellectual Labour seats Holborn and Islington
Re: 112 - To be honest, when you’ve seen the party at 5% and below in polls, 17% still looks ok. It takes much more than the triumphalist whining of a few young Tory activists to get me “scared witless”.
114. What line exactly am I spinning?
I said…
“Until confirmation is forthcoming it would be sensible to treat this as a possible rogue.”
Anyone who gets hungup on a single poll - as if on its own it means anything profound - is either stark-staring mad or innumerate, and must belong to the scratchcard classes…
113. I have a theory…
I have a theory that Labour have never been in government long enough for their core vote to *really* be tested.
What’s the longest they were in power up to today? 6 years? 7 years?
They’ve now been in power for 11 years. Noone knows how far their core vote could fall, particularly if they alientate their core supporters.
They’ve never been in this situation before, with their unpopularity increasing month-by-month, so they could go lower… and lower… and lower.
We just don’t know what the floor is. Particularly with todays looser voter allegiance.
125 - brilliant post.
I am off to toot my horn at a BNP billboard as Emily Enoch-Powell at 123 suggests.
Oh wait a moment, I don’t own a car and don’t drive.
OK I’ll just go out and rip one down instead.
Re: 124 - Apologies, punter. My comments were directed more at James who seems strangely ignorant of some basic canvassing techniques.
I’ve not worked a Lab-LD marginal area in years, I’m always in Con-LD territory.
Re: 123 - I met some Conservatives who were considering putting the BNP as their second preference. I didn’t meet a single person who told me they were giving the BNP their first preference though I did find a couple who were going to vote UKIP first and English Democrat second so make of that what you will
Tories won’t gain Maidstone.
I posited a run of polls with labour at 25% as being the potential tipping point against Brown, I didn’t think it would ever happen, maybe it will.
125 - I’m not hostile, and may well vote Lib Dem at the general election. But we could be looking at an unwinding of the 1997 Lib Dem uplift. If so, the casualties will be numerous.
127, I think the 10p issue more than longevity in government will end up costing Labour formerly core votes.
129 Constituency? Well my reading is they’re in trouble in London against the Conservatives with the rocklike exceptions of Vince Cable and Ed Davey. They have to look to seats I mention to make up for the Suttons and even Richmond Parks that look dodgier by the day
121. Just wait until some of McCain’s positions become publicly known. I know reliable sources in the Democrats who tell me that focus groups are shocked when they learn some of McCain’s positions on a range of issues. Most think he’s a moderate on abortion for one example.
The Slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ breaks 12 !!!!!
http://www.slate.com/id/2189890/
135-I think everyone is holding back on candidates’ “positions” on a whole range of issues. It’s par for the course.I would not read too much into it at this stage in the game.
Where’s Gabble? Waiting for the “another good poll for Labour” line.
Re: 132 - No offence intended, antifrank, and I hope you do support the party next time. The fact is the next election will be essentially defensive for the party but the key will be to maximise votes and seats.
When the Cameron Government fails to deliver after a couple of years, there will be a backlash and the LDs must be in a position to pick up on that in local and eventually national terms.
Latest Intrade prices, 81.3 Obama, 17.0 Clinton. No sign of any decent bounce there.
139 In that case you must be looking to gain at least a few Labour seats as you must think shipping more than a few to the Tories quite likely. BTW most interesting from YouGov and if anything frightening for Labour is the serious tactical unwind under way amongst Lib Dem voters in anti Tory voting. This adds to the mix I guess
Re: 134 - I was in an LD seat though I won’t say which one. I think the MP and activists are well aware how hard he will have to fight next time.
I’m not party (so to speak) to their detailed canvassing returns. I just did a couple of roads I know fairly well partly as a favour to the GLA candidate, partly to catch up with old friends and partly to get a feel for how things are going in the real world.
I live in Newham and even at 26% Labour ain’t going to lose East Ham.
139. I disagree but whilst we Tories are on here cheering I think we should give a quiet nod to our friends and opponents - like you -who have the bravery and the stamina to be on here tonight.
The Skull and the Governator go for it …. and they’re in the same party !!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/24/carville-richardson-conti_n_98443.html
Greatest poll in polling history!!!!!!!!!!
CON RULE NEXT 200 YEARS!!!!!!!!
More from the Telegraph on the Yougov Poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/24/npoll224.xml
It looking more and more like it could be Brown’s ‘Black Wednesday’. His personal ratings are dire.
I’m just watching a repeat of Channel 4 News, in order to see their piece on the London Mayor candidates.
The political reporter states that, in the light of Brown’s compromise over the 10p tax rate band, “Gordon Brown must win on 42 days. He cannot have a defeat. He will have no authority left!”
Attributed, I think he said, to a cabinet minister.
I’m taking the plunge tomorrow and putting the contents of my slush jar on a BoJo win next week. Surely London can’t buck the national trend too much?
145. We were wondering where you were.
If you didn’t exist we would have to invent you.
142 No but at that point IS, H&SP and even Brent Central are surely in play yes
Two observations on the latest poll:
The Conservative level of 44% is unchanged, suggesting that this isn’t a rogue poll, at least as far as they are concerned.
The ‘Others’ figure is high at 13%, and in practice the combined Genenral Election score for the three major parties is likely to be a few points higher. So scope for Labour to score nearer to 30%.
Re: 141 - Yes, seats will be lost next time, Punter, unless there is a severe change in the political encironment. I think those who talk about 20-25 seats are overstating things. I think 30-35 is a fair figure, I hope for 35-40.
Local factors come into play as does personal vote and, as you say, there may be some gains from Labour to offset the many losses to the Conservatives. I don’t know the current spread values for LD seats - if they’re offering say 32-35 I’d leave it alone.
QT starting.
Good start for Boris on funding.
Re: 139 - I should probably be out canvassing, Sally, but there you go. I don’t feel particularly brave. All I do know is that one evening, as sure as night follows day, it will be the Conservatives looking down the barrel of a terrible poll.
When that happens it will be interesting to see who among those crowing tonight will still be around to defend the Government and David Cameron and how many “newbies” will suddenly be gloating for Labour or the LDs. All I’ll say is I won’t be doing any gloating.
149 - TY - I get a lot of people asking after me on here, particularly in the daytime.
I only post in the evenings or at weekends ie when not at work!!
Meanwhile - can Lab go below 20% (nationally adjusted) next week??
HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE
152 I think 40 surely your floor unless you think Bob Russell and Lamb are going. As if Labour do then hit 30% or less you must pick up 5-10 Labour seats minumum which means the tories would have to practically repeat 1970 to take you under 40 seats
153/154. EDW. Where are you watching it?
153 EDW - Are you following Question Time live as it’s filmed? If so, how?
146. Good grief, what a grim analysis. And that from Prof. Anthony (what a terrible night for the Tories) King. :O
155 stodge - we had 14 years of looking down the barrel of poor polls, some younger Tory posters will have no memory (or possibly were not born) last time the Tories had an 18% lead.
157 - you are much more sanguine about the Lib Dems’ position than me. On present polling I would rank 40 as the Lib Dem ceiling.
155. Yes, of course things will switch one day and it’ll be Labour that is on the up. Thats the nature of politics. Thats what makes it such a fascinating sport. You’ll have your day again and I think you’ll find Labour quickly starts to renew itself in Opposition, it won’t take the 8 years it took the Tories. So, chin up.
Get in! get IN!! Yowza!
You gotta love Rod Crosby: “Until confirmation is forthcoming it would be sensible to treat this as a possible rogue. It’s really out of line with other recent polls…”
Was that a deliberate attempt to prove Smithson’s First Law, or just a sly, ironic allusion to the same?
Who cares! Fantastic. This government is falling apart by the minute. Here’s a suggestion for Dave boy Cameron, in terms of early policy: revise the electoral system so it properly reflect voters under FPTP, then fix the West Lothian Question
Result: no more horrible leftwing traitorous europhile governments, in England, EVER.
That’s what we need to ensure at the next election. Not just the defeat of Labour - but its permanent extinction. Avanti.
Broen selects the Labour anthem for next general election: we’re on a road to nowhere by Talking Heads.
The Lib Dems are going to get toated as badly as Labour!
Hillary drifting slowly south on the Iowa Exchanges :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
Next question on racism. Boris getting grilled on watermelon smiles, Dorren Lawrence. Attacks BNP, ‘tiny minds’,. Claims articles were spoofs. Did okay.<