Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
April 25th, 2008
picture Mike Smithson
The 2008 Local Election - The Districts
Seventy Eight District Councils will hold elections on May 1st, with around 1,300 seats being contested. Most will just contest one third of the seats, but six will contest half the seats, and three, Barrow-in-Furness, South Lakeland, and Welwyn Hatfield will witness all-out contests, as a result of boundary changes.
The majority of councils will see no change in control. Adur, Amber Valley, Basildon, Bassetlaw, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Cherwell, Chorley, Colchester, Cherwell, Crawley, Daventry, Epping Forest, Fareham, Great Yarmouth, Havant, Hertsmere, Huntingdon, Mole Valley, North Herts., Purbeck, Reigate & Banstead, Rochford, Rugby, Runnymede, Rushmoor, South Cambridgeshire, Stratford on Avon, Stroud, Tamworth, Tandridge, Tunbridge Wells, Waveney, Welwyn Hatfield, West Lancs., West Lindsey, and Worthing will all remain Conservative, barring some political earthquake over the next few days. Cambridge, Eastleigh, Pendle, South Lakeland, West Lindsey, Three Rivers, and Watford will remain Liberal Democrat, although, in the case of the last two, it will be interesting to see if the Conservatives can at last advance in the wards making up the Watford Parliamentary constituency, the closest three way marginal in 2005. Stevenage will retain its anomalous status as a safe Labour authority in the South of England.
Among those councils remaining under no overall control will be Burnley, although the Liberal Democrats should strengthen their position as largest party; in all likelihood, the BNP will also pick up a seat from Labour; Carlisle; Cannock Chase, currently run by a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition; Craven, once Conservative, but now with a strong Independent presence; Exeter, where the Conservatives should emerge as the largest party; Gloucester; Harlow; Hart; Harrogate, where the Conservatives are close to outright control, but which sees mostly Conservative seats being contested this time; Ipswich, although the Conservatives should come very close to taking outright control; Newcastle under Lyme; Norwich, where the Green Party, currently with ten councillors, stands an excellent chance of becoming the official opposition to Labour; Oxford, where the Conservatives will be doing well if they can even hold one or two seats. Remarkably, the Conservatives are now the fifth party in a city whose council they controlled for decades. Preston should remain under no overall control, as should St. Alban’s, although the Conservatives should gain some seats from the Liberal Democrats in that key marginal. Weymouth and Portland will see no change. Wyre Forest, where the Kidderminster Hospital Campaign remains strong, will remain under no overall control, as should the other two Worcestershire authorities up this year, Redditch and Worcester.
Among the rest, the Conservatives should gain overall control of Barrow-in Furness, Basingstoke & Deane, and Gosport, being just one seat short in each authority. They should also take Cheltenham, which they currently control in alliance with a minor local party, and will either gain, or come close to gaining, overall control of Elmbridge, where they form a minority administration. They should be able to take Maidstone, where they repeatedly fall just short of overall control, They should be able to gain overall control of Nuneaton & Bedworth from Labour, although a likely big vote for the BNP in that authority could prevent this. Hastings, where half the seats are up for election, ought to be a Conservative gain, although two poor by-election results last year make this uncertain.
The Conservatives are vulnerable in Castle Point (particularly after the defection of Robert Spink) where local independents have been gaining ground, although they should just hold on this time round. In both Lincoln, and Hyndburn, they are just one seat away from losing overall control, and Labour are very close to gaining outright control. I would expect the Conservatives to hold on in what I think will be a bad year for Labour, but they will be vulnerable in future. Rossendale has witnessed some dreadful Conservative performances in by elections, and will probably be lost to no overall control, with Labour as the largest party. Swale is another likely loss to no overall control, given the success of local independents. Both Winchester and Woking are vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, but should be held narrowly by the Conservatives this time round.
What are my overall predictions? I think Boris Johnson will win narrowly, by about 52% to 48% . On the London Assembly, I expect to see Labour lose at least two constituency seats, with a final tally of Conservative 10, Labour 5, Lib Dem 5, Green 3, and BNP 2, although UKIP might just make it back if enough Conservatives give them their list vote.
In terms of national vote projection, I would expect to see something like Conservative 42%, Lib Dem 25%, Labour 24%, with around 200 gains for the Conservatives (excluding the Shadow authorities), 250 losses for Labour, 50 losses for the Liberal Democrats, and the balance made up of gains for Plaid, minor parties and independents.
There were just two by-elections last night:-
Dover District - Little Stour and Ashstone: Conservative 1109, Lib Dem 459, Labour 113. A safe Conservative hold.
Hinckley and Bosworth Borough - Hinckley Castle: Lib Dem 802, BNP 264, Conservative 226, Labour 116. A safe Liberal Democrat hold, with another strong BNP performance in Leicestershire.
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Why is Mike putting up fake Polling station signs on his garden fence?
Trying to keep down the Tory vote in Bedford perhaps?
Most interesting article: Labour at 24% would mean curtains for Gordon!
Interestingly, what is the critical Labour vote point at which huge chunks of seats go to their opponents?
On the basis of recent opinion polls, the Tories should be doing much better than plus 200 surely?
2 - There is absolutely no chance of the Labour Party ditching Gordon this side of the next election. One suspects that he will have to fall on his sword t’other side.
Excellent analysis as usual, Sean.
I would quibble with 100 gains for ‘others’ though, particularly since I have not seen any Wales-only polling.
Will Plaid really make substantial gains since, now they are in coalition in the Assembly, they will now be attracting the Labour poodles/stooges/whatevers tag traditionally reserved for the Lib Dems?
3. Lets see in a week! If the tories do as well as i think they might - I would love to be a fly on the wall in the Blair household. Think Sean’s figures are very Conservative (Small c) indeed!
Labour at 24% wouldn’t necessarily mean curtains for Brown, but coming third behind the Lib Dems surely would.
Sean - as always, a fantastically forensic insight into the Local Elections. Would I be right in thinking Brown benefits from the disastrous display by Labour in the Locals last year? IIRC, Labour lost several hundred councillors - does that limit the amount Brown can see lost this time? What is the maximum damage that can be inflicted on Labour this time?
2 - I very much doubt 24% would mean curtains for Brown although it would be a very poor result and a lot of Labour MPs would feel very uneasy. I would in any event expect Labour to bottom out in the high 20s, Lib Dems low 20s, Tories low 40s.
Is the picture? :
1. Credit - Mike Smithson
2. Mike Smithson
3. Both of the above.
4. Some chap called POLUNG STAN
I might be wrong on this…
But didn’t Labour come third at the locals in 2004, 12 months before the 2005 general election win?
3 - Much lower number of seats contested this time, Labour are defending around 1400 seats IIRC so to lose 200 would be a quite substantial.
3 I think the Tories gained about 900 or something absurd last time, so there is probably a limit as to how many more they can get in May.
5 I think Sean reckoned PC would gain about 40 seats - 100 across the country seems about right, if you consider that a lot of independents could do well if there is anti-Labour feeling, but no Tory presence.
3 - It is not, in truth, a huge year in the four year cycle for local elections. Brown ought to be grateful for that small mercy as it will put a floor on his losses.
4 I disagree. I think he will come under sustained pressure to go if there is no improvement in Labour’s position by the Party Conference. He has no support in the wider party and only a rapidly-diminishing number of acolytes in the PLP.
@9:
It’s subliminal advertising.
…must credit Mike Smithson…must credit Smithson…must vote Paddick… NO! FIGHT IT MAN!
If Labour could sell to the media circa 1,000 gains by the Tories as bad news for the them if Boris doesn’t win circa 200 gains this time will be a lot easier to spin.
New Rasmussen Presidential Poll for Massachusetts :
McCain 36% .. Clinton 55%
McCain 39% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/massachusetts/toplines_massachusetts_presidential_election_april_23_2008
Sean- very good as usual. Think at the present moment Gordo would take this- a close Mayoral election, polling 24% in the national share, 200 losses.
Reality may be worse- scraping 20% in the polls, and 300+ losses from a low base, and losing Ken.
Maybe I am feeling a bit on the pessimistic side.
I am unlikey to vote myself as I am so depressed with things!
Why do you think BoJo’s win will be so slim, Sean?
My only quibble, Sean, is that I reckon the Lib Dems are due for a net gain of one in St Albans.
20 - Are you standing, Augustus?
The whole council elections in Wales will be interesting.
21 Good grief, man, are you mad! Of course not!
Still think 200 is a conservative estimate - although I suppose Labour will be hoping to win some seats back in heartland areas (Liverpool and South Wales).
I disagree strongly that Boris will win so narrowly. Anyone want a sporting tenner that the final second pref gap is at least 6 points?
These seats (apart from the shadows) were last fought in 2004 ( in the mets the cllrs up for relection were lected then). That was labours worst ver result in anational election since the birth of modern politics. If they genuinely do worse than that and lose hundreds of councillors and taril the LD’s by a few points in projected vote share then it may light the touch paper under gordon. However if things are merely abysmal, say a point or two ahead of the LD’s with 100 loses then he can just say this is how labour perform in locals. Also remember the rise of local anti incumbancy swings. Labour have been out of power in some of the mets for a while now and have hit a bit of a floor.
Interesting analysis as ever.
Forgot to say how good Sean’s article is which was bad.
Sean,
Any hints on how the postals are going?
Thanks for this, Sean. The national vote projection really will be important, because as you say the scope for Con council gains is really very small - perhaps only 10 (including Bury, North Tyneside) even if it’s a good night, and maybe offset by Rossendale, Winchester, Woking on a few freak ward results. Of course it will all be overshadowed by Ken/Boris anyway.
Just one thing, you seem to have both the Conservatives and the LDs controlling West Lindsey. It’s LD rather than Con isn’t it? Just checking!
I suppose it may not all be overshadowed as the Mayoral result won’t be out until sometime Friday, presumably after lunch.
This might be a daft question, but are we expecting any exit polls of the Mayoral election - or are those only commissioned for Generals?
When is the Mayoral vote counted? Will we know overnight or have to wait until Friday?
25. Hi David, I’ll take that on the condition is that you are talking about a handicap i.e. Boris minus 6 points rather than the gap. This is because I think there is a chance that Ken could possibly win by 6 after second preferences. If you’re ok with that we should email Peter the Punter.
The way these seats were contested last time it would be astonishing if the Tories picked up more than say 200 seats.
I’m sure we’ll get the usual frustrating election night nonsense about the Tories not making much headway in mid-term from both the likes of Ed and Yvonne on TV and Roger on here.
And the Tory posters (including me if we are up past 5am) writing increasingly hysterical Labour are going to be finished for a generation stuff in response.
Hopefully the London election and the shock of the BNP winning 2 seats will focus our minds on something other than party posturing.
Who am I kidding!
30. I don’t think the counting begins until the Friday afternoon.
32 why?
@32:
Well, I’m gonna have an early night.
The result that matters won’t be available until around 24 hours after close of polls anyway!
31 - I think Boris will win with a six point second pref handicap OK.
sorry that was meant to be to 33. why not on Thursday night or Friday morning for that matter?
@32:
Screw posturing. By 8pm on Friday 2nd May, win or lose, I strongly hope to be unable to stand up.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 49%
Note - No Pennsylvania bounce for Hillary.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Somebody give me odds for a charity bet on BoJo winning on second prefs by at least 10pts?
allows time to stuff all the ballot boxes
London count starts at 8 30 am on the Friday morning. It takes about 6 or so hours, even with electronic machines
@42:
Last I heard, it’s expected to take closer to twelve hours. The GLA constituencies go first, then the top-up list, and the Mayoralty gets counted last, ISTR.
We should have all results in by around 8pm on Friday 2nd.
Another foul up on logos, or is it a subliminal commentary on the present government.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/24/nogc124.xml
Makes a change from the swastikas on The Progressive Governance Foum. Bur has the bidding for the mouse mats started on ebay?
41. But you’re forgetting the Labour party is run by Mr. Bean, not Stalin.
Does the Hon.Member for Hersham (south) agree with Sean about Elmbridge ?
Con “..will either gain, or come close to gaining, overall control of Elmbridge, where they form a minority administration.”
I suppose Kelvin McKenzie might throw a spanner in the works, but apart from that I cannot see what would prevent at least 2 Tory gains from Res Assocs.
Con don’t need to gain (and I don’t expect they will) the three Lib Dem wards to have overall control.
28 Well-spotted. The Conservative council ought to have said West Oxfordshire.
3. Not necessarily. Dont’t forget the Tories already had a big lead in local elections in 2004.
5. My guess is that Plaid will gain some ground in the South Wales valleys, plus Camarthernshire and Ceredigion.
7. Up to a point. But I don’t think that a loss of 250 from such a low base can be spun away that easily.
20. I’ll check, but I think there are a few vulnerable Lib Dem seats there.
Interesting as always, thanks Sean. I’ve not much personal insight except that Labour is hopeful of doing better than the overall picture in Hastings, and we have a battle royal with the BNP in parts of Amber Valley.
Indiana polls on RCP show a near-dead heat - Obama ahead by 1 or 3. Also one pre-Penn poll showing the gap in NC narrowing to 9%. If Hillary were able to come close to winning there, the doubts about Obama would really start to multiply. She’s giving it a shot, see
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/24/AR2008042403790.html
and
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120907504315142995.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox
but as noted above, the Edwards people in the state are mostly switching to Obama.
Anyone got any views on Southampton? Last year it did a very odd Lab/Con/Lib change of 18/18/14 from 16/16/16…
48 (last point) There are.
There is going to have to be a local election at some point when the Tories make a net loss on seats!
We were promised this week official information re the number of people registered to vote and the number of postal votes (ie issued, obviously some will not be returned).
Does anyone now have this information?
52 I’d expect a net loss in seats in 2010, and from then on.
50 The Conservatives should be the largest party, but should be a couple short of a majority.
@54:
On the same day as the general election that sweeps Dave to power?
Surely not?
footsoldier - when I said to mark Senior I was willing to bet the tories would gain more than 120 seats he took me up on the bet - this is because he thought it so unlikely the tories would gain anywhere near a hundred seats.
Paging Mark Senior , Paging Mark Senior, dust off the wallet and prepare to send a tenner to Helen Hous Hospice.
55 If the Conservatives win the next election (and assuming it’s May 2010) they’re still likely to do less well in local elections than in 2006.
On Wales look out for Neath as a Labour loss of control..
When looing at detailed results take a close look at Ceredigion, Llanelli Aberconwy and Vale of Glamorgan for a guide to how the general election might go…
46 - I thank the Hon. Gentleman for his question. The statement by my Rt.Hon Friend, the Poster of the Year (2007), is a welcome and seemingly accurate assessment of the position.
59 - “…and indeed the Hon Gentleman’s own conclusions at 46 which demonstrate a most credible insight”
Further to Yellow submarine’s point on LD strategy on the prior thread, I just played around on pivot tables to see where the 2005 LibDem vote was situated.
Results are the 5.9 million Lib Dem voters in 2005 were distributed as follows
Tory seats with Lib Dem 2nd: 1.2m in 83 seats
Lib Dem seats with Tory 2nd: 1.0m in 43 seats
Total Con-LD/LD-Con 2.2m in 126 seats
Labour seats with LD 2nd : 0.9m in 106 seats
Lib Dem seats with Lab 2nd: 0.3m in 18 seats
Total Lab-LD/LD-Lab 1.2m in 124 seats
Other (LD third or worse) 2.6m in 380 seats
If the LibDems switched their national strategy to going after Labour, it wouldn’t be that relevent for most of their existing supporters.
49 Nick P. A 9% Obama win in NC would be a dream result for Hillary.
Some pointers. The demographics are similiar to South Carolina - 29%AA - NC 23%. AA turnout in SC was around 190% !!!. Obama only took around 78% in that early contest, recently around 90%. Edwards’s supporters are heavily trending to Obama.
I’d look to a 20 point plus win for Obama as a base figure.
61 I inadvertently included Ceredigion in other, which was a LD seat with Plaid second.
As usual excellent report Sean.
The feedback I have suggests the LDs hope to gain Woking (I know what they are hoping to achieve, but don’t think I should say exactly). Having said that they hoped to gain it last time and instead the Conservatives took it, although there was only 1 seat in it.
49 Nick
With all due respect, and I do respect you.
Is your judgement on UK politics as poor as your judgement on US politics, and if it is I fear even more for our country if you are typical of British MPs.
Incidentally, I had a phone call an hour ago from our electricity provider in South Dakota, telling me that my billing statement had been returned to them. When I asked her to read the address, everything was fine until she got to the country. Bless their hearts they thought UK stood for Ukraine. I bet the Ukrainian postal service were just a tad baffled.
Malcolm
62 Jack W
This post from the National Review highlights the dangers of making comparisons between the Carolinas.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDk2ZWM0MmM1ZmNjMTcyMDdhOTUyZjNiMDEzNWJjYzA=
Just had this from BoJo’s throbbing campaign centre
We’ve set ourselves an ambitious target of calling one million Londoners, and there are prizes to spur our callers on. Whoever makes the most calls gets the great honour of tea with me (plus cake)
is Ken offering a similar deal, tea and cake with the great man - 4th prize is a bottle of whisky and this might be more up Ken’s street. Individually phoning about 20% of the electorate must be some sort of record for a local campaign?
62 JackW
Spot on as usual. In your chosen marshall art of politi kwando, you are surely a Grand Master.
Malcolm
67. I have agreed to makes some calls Tuesday evening but in the 2 hour slot I have available I am not going to make many inroads into that 1 million so tea with boJo looks a distant goal…
66 Paul M. Thanks I had seen it. It’s tosh !!!!
You can’t get away from the AA demographic. If AA turnout is in the range of SC or even 15points down and Obama scores his now usual 90% then that’s between 35% and 40% of the vote for starters.
@67:
Nobody tell Boris, but I reckon I’d rather have tea with George Osborne than Boris. And he’s second prize?
66/70 Further ….Hillary’s role in NC is to do an Obama/Penn - Pour resources in to prevent a blowout. Her problem has been she’s found it difficult to gain traction in ‘Obama states’ where he started with a decent lead. In contrast Obama has nearly always managed to trim her large leads into single digits.
68 Malcolm. Your analysis is as usual spectacularly accurate !!
66 & 70.
Don’t mess with Jack W - he was born in 1902. He’s almost Victorian!
20 point win for Obama in NC ends the race unless she wins Indiana by 10.
If those two results come to pass on the same day the Democrats really are ripping themselves in two over this.
I predict Obama by 12 in NC and Hillary by 5 in Indiana. Which probably leaves us exactly where we are now.
I’m going to stick my neck out and imitate the great Roger
:
London Mayoralty: Boris 40%, Ken 27% (first pref - second preferences will only change Boris’s lead by +/- 1%).
London Assembly: 3 seats for BNP. Shock horror all round, not least for Lib Dems who now realise they have to vote Boris’s budgets through if he is not to need BNP votes.
Great support for Livingstone in this afternoon’s ES front page,seems they were holding this one back.
76 - Is that the tube unions story?
@75:
The BNP won’t take three seats. I don’t have a d’hondt calculator to hand, but wouldn’t probably need to push something like 13% in the list vote to do that?
73 Paul. Your off the ball there !! Jack W was born in 1903.
Jack W is 105.
78 10% would probably give them three seats, although I think they’ll fall short of that.
77
Yes,so much for last night’s ‘I don’t know whose funding my campaign’,no wonder he was so definite that Boris couldn’t do any deals with the RMT.
I wonder what the ES have got left for next week.
So whovever wins, is mayor until May 2012. What a kick in the teeth, if they don’t get re-elected then.
After taking all the flak for the costs and problems of the olympics, someone else will waltz in for July 2012 and take all the plaudits and fame for the Olympics.
81 - Boris probably doesn’t worry to much about not doing a deal with the RMT, small matter of an Act of Parliament shortly after the next election will cut their gallop. So Boris can probably present it as do a reasonable deal with me or Dave will legislate something far far worse for you.
I don’t have a d’hondt calculator to hand…
Here’s one I prepared earlier
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Londonassembly.xls
Their chances increase if UKIP don’t make the threshold
83
Sure you are right,just highlighted (if that were needed) how dishonest Livingstone is.
@82:
The thing is, this means there will be a halo effect around Boris that will make him almost impossible to shift.
68
Fools’mutual admiration society.
75. “Shock horror all round, not least for Lib Dems who now realise they have to vote Boris’s budgets through if he is not to need BNP votes.”
Sorry, you’ve lost me there - you could just as easily substitute ‘Labour’ or ‘Greens’ for ‘Lib Dems’ in that sentence.
link to ES story, please.
@84:
Thanks, Rod.
Plugging in various reasonable figures, I still reckon the BNP will have to be somewhat lucky to get two seats, but still quite possible. Three seats seems pretty unthinkable, as plugging in various figures shows that they’d still need around 12% to achieve that.
89
I just bought the paper,sorry don’t have link.
89 - http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23480286-details/Tube+unions+bankroll+Ken/article.do
@89/91:
KENVELATIONS:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23480286-details/Tube+unions+bankroll+Ken/article.do
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23480286-details/Tube+unions+bankroll+Ken/article.do
@92:
Damn.
68 “In your chosen marshall art of politi kwando, you [Jack W] are surely a Grand Master.”
I now have this image of Jack W being across between Humphrey Littleton (in I’m Sorry I Haven’t a Clue mode) - and Yoda.
@ 92/93 damn, damn
The London Count.
The votes are all counted by machines at the same time. The ballot papers are three different colours and A4 in size.
The GLA constituency count is announced first, only because as each one is finished, so the Constituency Returning Officer announces the result.
The figures are the electronically sent to City Hall, where they are added to the other constituency votes for the London Mayoral and Top up list votes.
86 Remember 2012 will also, in all probability, be the Diamond Jubilee - which on form will probably be better organised than the Olympics. The halo effect would be doubled.
98 what a waste of paper.
A rain forest the size of wales cut down so Labour could impose another layer of beaurocrats and parasites.
O/T - Part of me feels sorry for Alan Johnson over this. Do you think the Cabinet will have a whip round?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7367195.stm
84
Rod,you really think UKIP will get two seats?
They were on the creast of a wave last time,the Euro elections were held at the same time and the Tories were still unpopular and since then UKIP has all but imploded as a party.
Also if i’m not mistaken the two UKIP’s elected defected and set up their own party.
With a completely changed scene from last time I would be surprised if they won any seats on the Assembly.
58: Interesting Cymrumark.
If Plaid and others deprive Labour of control in Neath then something significant is happening in South Wales. As for Llanelli - this is a straight Plaid v Labour fight within the wider Carmarthenshire. If Plaid do well at the expense of Labour how long with the One Wales Government last?
Since you are a Plaid candidate in Gogarth Ward, Llandudno and I’m the Parliamentary Candidate for the Aberconwy Conservatives I will not comment on expectations but as you know we have significantly more candidates in the Aberconwy part of Conwy Council than any other party (C23, LD16, Plaid15, Lab15)and more than double what we fielded in 2004 when we went from 1-5!
Gwynedd will also be interesting. I’m willing to now say that it will go to NOC from Plaid. The result will be close but I’m now fairly certain that Plaid will fail to return the 38 councillors that they need for control. A possible loss for Plaid in Gwynedd is their Leader (well one of around half a dozen!) Dafydd Iwan who is, I believe, the leader of the party as opposed to leader of the party in Cardiff Bay.
Flintshire is also looking increasingly interesting with Labour facing a poor result here.
@100:
The paper is supposed to all be recycled.
58 Mark - your Plaid support is being let down by your geography - Plaid will do well in Neath, but which is only part of Neath Port Talbot Council - in the other half of the Council Labour are pretty entrenched. Similarly Llanelli is only part of Carmarthenshire council - Plaid will do well in both parts of this council, but Independents may stop Plaid taking control. Expect a strong showing in Caerffili but elsewhere gains will be sporadic - a few in Maesteg
On an earlier thread, someone pointed out that the spreadfair spread on SNP seats had become 8 to 19 all of a sudden - it’s now settled at 13 to 14. Clearly growing confidence north of the frontier (oops) border.
66 PaulM
National Review Online gives an excellent conservative perspective; however their bias shows. They need a good Clinton performance in NC to harm Obama and help McCain.
“North Carolina is not South Carolina. Its political history and behavior are very different. It has a smaller black vote, true urban liberals, and, dare I say it, more talented Democratic politicians.”
It has a large enough black vote, urban liberals tend very much to Obama, and its talented politicians are starting to endorse Obama in droves. Looking good for the junior Senator from Illinois.
As for H Rodham Clinton? North Carolina will be just one more feather in the tail of the dead parrot.
Malcolm
OT: Haven’t read the thread as I don’t really have time today. But I just had to post this excellent piece on the various scenarios in the future of Israel. It really does get across the perspective of the various views on both sides of the conflict:
http://www.macleans.ca/world/global/article.jsp?content=20080423_11237_11237&page=1
61. That is precisely my point. The party’s existing property portfolio keeps it locked into an anti tory strategy 11 years after the left power rather than an anti labour stategy 11 years after they took office. Given that the biggest shifter of votes in the bussiness is disappointment with an incumbent government its not a growth strategy. Its rather like the party is a VHS manufactuer who is refusing to go into the DVD business because of the inconvenience of changing its machinery.
71. Sorry to lower the tone….
But, Martin, but as a gay-man who would you rather “do”…
(1) Cameron
(2) Osbourne
(3) Boris
(4) Duncan
You can either answer in FPTP, or AV+ (don’t mind)
I’m not gay, but of all the above, I’d probably pick Osbourne if push came to shove..
109 So it’s not a forward looking strategy then
93,94 It’s hardly a massive surprise that Ken is getting financial support from the Unions - can’t see this story swinging many votes myself.
Sean
Barrow-in-Furness might not be so straight forward……..there are some interesting local issues (no, sorry not posting, but court case starts on Friday 2nd May, and there was a daft decision last week that could stiffen the Labour sinews).
Carlisle could see a little shift, but remain NOC (Gaz might even get elected!)
South Lakeland……..sorry Cons, but you might struggle to stand still.
@110:
It’d be between George Osborne or Alan Duncan. I reckon George would be the dirtier of the two.
112
“I was going to back Ken Livingstone, but now I’ve heard he’s supported by the unions I am shocked beyond belief. I going to vote for that nice man Boris who has never taken any money from anyone and owes no favours. Boris is a true man of the people!”
It’s friday…
114. JEESS!!! Horrible mental image!!
What about…. Mark Oaten versus George Osbourne?
hehe
109. So it would pretty dumb to change tack now, only to have to change back again in two years time after a presumed Tory victory, wouldn’t it?
116 CR Earlier in the week you were obsessing about Nick Cleggover. Now this. I wouldn’t normally intervene in personal matters, but are you OK?
109 - isn’t the point that most of the company’s employees can only make VHSs and they’re more interested in their contracts being renewed for another 5 years rather than the long-term health of the company?
115 ..it’s five to five and it’s…better stop there …showing my age…
@117:
Not if it means you miss out on the chance to knock Labour into third place come 2010.
Her Majesty’s Opposition? Been a while since that’s been yellow.
96 Marquee
I thought it was established that JackW was Grandpa Simpson on speed.
Malcolm
@116:
Mark Oaten is a munter. FACT.
117 - it depends who they see as their real rivals. Politically (on a crude L/R axis), their rivals are the Tories. Which means that tactically their rivals are Labour.
If you agree with the basic premise that Britain (or at least England) will always have a right-wing party then it doesn’t make much sense to keep attacking them when they are down to their core vote (as per 2001-2005). Better to use the opportunity to position yourself tactically against Labour.
110. Thats not a very inspiring choice. Is there a RON option? can we have Jeremy Hunt and Ed Vaisey as write in candidates? Grant Shapps perhaps as well? thats would bring out more of the core vote.
It all depends who got eliminated first. I could see a lot of Cameron second preferences going to George and visa versa.
I think on balance i’m with Martin. It would have to be george as its the quiet straight laced ones that often surprise and deliver.
121 If there a man who can deliver that it’s got to be Nick Clegg.
Nick Clegg, The next Liberal Prime Minister.
(I am tempting fate here)
As I was wandering round South Lakeland 10 days ago, not quite as lonely as a cloud I saw a host of golden diamonds and only of couple of fields with Conservative voting sheep in them!
127 Sounds like a Tory 10,000 majority then.
Sadly there is no correlation between diamonds and votes.
Those sheep are well connected.
116: Is 4 to 5pm Gay Hour on pb.com?
Here’s something I didn’t know… according to Patrick Hennessy Cameron and Hilton came up with the ‘92 tax bombshell poster.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/april08/new-tax-bombshell.htm
The comments on this Telegraph blog remind us why PB.com is such a welcome oasis in the ’sphere.
According to the Times’s Sam Coates on his Red Box blog, the Thunderer is going to endorse one of the Mayoral candidates tomorrow.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/
Can’t think it will have the impact it might have had 100 years ago.
Ken Livingstone has been commenting on Olympic security…
http://www.chickyog.net/2008/04/25/theres-goons-and-then-theres-goons/
Small move back to Boris this afternoon on the exchanges.
I backed Ken in a reasonable amount at 2.5 and he is now 2.58 bid in around £300.
I am somewhat surprised considering Boris and his faltering performance in the last quarter of QT last night.
@130:
Did the Tories cause AIDS?
Let’s ask Roger.
Excellent analysis Sean and not much to disagree with.
Think your shares of vote are about right. In terms of seat changes your numbers imply 100 seat gains for other parties which seems too high.Believe Lib Dems will stand still with gains from Labour offsetting losses to Tories.I would go for 230 tory gains including Wales and 230 Labour losses.On coucil changes think Tories will win Crewe and aslo Nuneaton,witha possible surpris egain of Portsmouth.
Rogerh
Nice analysis Sean, but a few things to consider.
In Pendle the Lib Dems are defending 11 out the 16 (I think) seats up for election. If last year’s result is repeated they lose to NOC, so it shouldn’t be in the safely Lib Dem column.
Cheltenham will be interesting. Cameron is visiting next week and local Tories are predicting winning 15 of the 20 seats. So it should be a comfortable gain for the Tories in one of the super-marginal Lib/Con seats. But I’m not so sure.
I do think the most interesting results will be in these Lib Dem/Con supermarginals - South Lakeland, Solihull, Cheltenham and Eastleigh (along with the less marginal Winchester and Portsmouth). We should get a pretty good idea of the Tories GE prospects from these contests.
The Lib Dems should also lose Liverpool to NOC if recent by-elections results are repeated, the question will be can they make compensating gains in the other big Mets?
Very interesting, thanks Sean.
42% for the Tories would be their highest national vote share since 1992. Coupled with a win for Boris, I think this would be a very good night for the Conservatives.
I know its a year away, but what can we expect in the local elections in 2009? These will be seats that were contested in 1997, 2001 and 2005, which I would have thought means they have an unduly high number of Labour members representing them? If Brown doesn’t call the general election to co-incide with next years local, would Labour losses of like 1000-1300 seats by a realistic expectation?
It is going to look a bit weird if The Times endorses Ken whilst The Sun has already endorsed Boris..
@131:
I’ll add Sam Coates to my list of “Tory Woulds” if that’s okay too.
121. Being second in vote share is no guarantee of being second in seats.
138 - You never know. Murdoch might be wanting to back all the main contenders so at least he will have backed the winner (and erm loser).
You’ve got to admire that Gordon Brown! A while back, when Ozzy suggested introducing a ‘Flat Tax’, he was denounced and ridiculed by the left. Now, I’ve just been reading the comments on Ms Toynbee’s latest offering over at the Guardian. What’s everyone’s solution to the impenetrable tax system we’ll soon be enduring thanks to Brown’s latest blunder? A Flat Tax! Well done, Gordon, you’ve turned the nation’s Guardian readers into Osbornites!
A MORI poll for Unison apparently gives Livingstone a 52%/48% lead over Johnson, among those certain to vote. I’ve no idea how many have said they were certain to vote.
IMHO the kind of voting intention leads implied by Yougov today, and Populus on Sunday, make it virtually impossible for Livingstone to win, regardless of personal following.
Dan@136:
In Pendle last year, all the single-member rural wards were up for election, and bar one which elects a Liberal Democrat they all safely returned Conservatives. It would take a huge shift to budge Pendle to NOC this year, but they are vulnerable in central Nelson to Labour (who have been reduced to a rump) and in Boulsworth where the leader of the Council is defending a ward lost to the Conservatives last year.
143 - Where did you read that Sean?
138 “It is going to look a bit weird if The Times endorses Ken whilst The Sun has already endorsed Boris..”
Well last time News International’s papers were split
Sunday Times was Tory, Sun was Labour, and the Times supported individual candidates from all the main parties on a case by case basis..
Ken leading Boris by six points according to Mori pol. Fieldwork 23 and 24 April
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/25/livingstone.london08
Four point lead on “certain AND registered to vote”
Still up for grabs????
147 - Thanks
Why are Unison doing poll after poll on the mayoral election?
147 I can’t see the point of surveying people who aren’t on the electoral register.
139. As Julian Clary once said, “Talk about a Red Box!”
” A Unison/Guardian poll.. ”
The clue is in the question..
I’m not surprised MORI now has Ken inching ahead. I imagine most of the telephone pollsters will show a narrow lead for Livingstone going into polling day. YouGov will probably have Boris on a 2-3% lead in its final poll on Monday. Ken is narrowing the gap, but will run out of time to close it out, I think.
New thread on MORI Mayoral poll
I’m sure Mike is working on a ***NEW THREAD** I can feel it…
147 well the field work is fresh and MORI are respected if a little labour frindly in my experience but why on earth survey people who aren’t registered to vote and then adjust the figures?
Were they standing on street corners?
Just to pass off conjecture as analysis as we all do i’ve had a rash of texts and emails from London lib dem activits friends saying they are holding there nose and giving ken a second preference. all very anti ken/anti lab types but they just can’t stomarch boris even though some of them want to.
Could this be closer than we think? also is this superficially increased ken lead against the MORI trend which was converging with You GOV. Interesting to see how it effects the markets.
136 I am not so sure about Cheltenham - think the Tories may be over confident as well
julia from Mori will find it hard to explain this one on May 2nd.
127. In Westmoreland the Tories used to have yellow posters - throwback to the Earls of Lonsdale’s racing colours.
Re 136 LD spin alert.
No Cheltenham tory is predicting 15 seats. Result will be a lot closer. The only certainty is that Labour will lose their last seat, the 3 independent seats will be severely squeezed, probably losing 1-2 and the Conservatives will easily have the largest vote share in the Cheltenham constituency
102. I’m not predicting that. The spreadsheet just has a default of the last result in 2004. Try altering the first column vote shares and see the forecasted seats change…
Purbeck currently C13,LD9,I2 will certainly go to NOC and an outside chance to LD. C Leader resigned recently, perhaps he could see the writing on the wall.
103 Guto and 105 Penddu
Wise not to comment about elections you are close to though to be franlk I dont have a clue how I or my colleagues are going to do in Aberconwy overall.No doubt will see Guto in the count Thursday and Friday.
Penddu I think you mis understood my point. Plaid will be looking at Llanelli to see if we make gains dont think anyone exects us to tke control of Carmarthenshire…Neath Labour look set tolose to a mixture with Plaid stronger in the Neath bit but various others in Aberavon.
Tories reallyshould be looking for 3-4 net gains in Aberconwy….:)
The Tories will not gain Nuneaton. The Tory vote there was only ever an anti-Labour protest vote (admittedly a growing one) in two towns with solid Labour credentials. Now that the BNP are standing that vote will fracture. Labour hold - wish I had cash on it.
Thursday 24th April 2008.
Dover DC, Little Stour and Ashstone
Con 1109 (66.0; -1.9), LD Bryan Curtis 459 (27.3; +5.4), Lab 113 (6.7; -3.5).
Majority 650. Turnout 31.2%. Con hold. (Percentage change since May 2007).
Hinckley and Bosworth BC, Hinckley Castle
LD Bronwyn Witherford 802 (57.0; -10.0), BNP 264 (18.8; +18.8), Con 226 (16.1; -8.7), Lab 116 (8.2; 0.0).
Majority 538. Turnout 29.6%. LD hold. (Percentage change since May 2007).
165. totally agree BNP/Tory vote will be bigger than Labour but split and that will help Labour keep hold of the council
164: I will not be there Cymrumark. On Radio Wales and Radio Cymru from 12am until 3am on Thursday night / Friday morning.
I’ll probably miss the fun but having been out in Llanfairfechan, Penmaenmawr, Capelulo, Conwy, Marl, Pensarn, Deganwy, Mostyn, Gogarth, Craig y Don, Trefriw, Glan Conwy and more I suspect that the candidates are fed up of the sight of me!