Unison funded MORI poll puts Ken ahead
April 25th, 2008
A new Ipsos-MORI poll funded by the Unison public service trade union reports that Ken is ahead by 3% on first preferences and 6% after second preferences. (UPDATE: The Guardian report on the poll suggests that the 6% was scaled back to 4% after MORI had factored in whether those interviewed were registered to vote or not.)
The first preference figures are KEN 41%: BORIS 38%: PADDICK 12%. After second preferences are taken into account this become KEN 52%: BORIS 48%
What is not clear is whether the new poll uses the same voting intention question that was adopted in the last MORI survey which attracted some criticism. I have asked the pollster for clarification. An amended version of the question was used in MORI’s only media commissioned poll for the Observer.
The question in the original poll was put in this way: “Q1 In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, Sian Berry is standing for the Green Party, and there will be other candidates too. In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?”
The problem here is that Ken was presented in a different way to Boris and that the wording is on the long side.
In the latest Economist doubts are raised about the difficulty of second preference polling by the MD of ICM, Nick Sparrow. He notes that the sample sizes can get very small. In the previous MORI survey the split was down to just 31 people.
This is the first of several polls expected this weekend.
UPDATE: I have now spoken to Ipsos-MORI and have been advised that the question wording was the one used in its Observer poll two weeks ago.
This read: “In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, and there will be other candidates too. In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?”
So it was the same as the earlier Unison wording but without reference to the Green candidate.
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This is expected to be the last Mayoral survey that MORI will carry out so it is these numbers that it will be judged on. Who would be a pollster?
The immediate impact on the betting markets has been a tightening of the Ken price and an easing of the Boris one.
It is beginning to look as though we might have a line-up of pollsters predicting entirely different outcomes to the election and that the choice for punters will be “which firm do you trust most?” There hasn’t been an election like that in decades.
Historical note: In every single general election and London Mayoral election for the past quarter of a century the most accurate pollster has been the one showing Labour/Ken in the least favourable position. This is what we saw in the 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, and 2005 general elections as well as in the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections. Will that hold next Thursday?
SECOND UPDATE: Much of the confusion about the figures has been caused by a leak to the Guardian on which it based its story. The paper put the emphasis on the vote shares BEFORE the non-registered people were taken off.
Mike Smithson
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I’m not surprised MORI now has Ken inching ahead. I imagine most of the telephone pollsters will show a narrow lead for Livingstone going into polling day. YouGov will probably have Boris on a 2-3% lead in its final poll on Monday. Ken is narrowing the gap, but will run out of time to close it out, I think.
These poll results were leaked last night, I’m sure of it. That’s where the money to lay Boris came from last night.
The ‘quality’ of this poll can be judge on this:
‘However, the study for Unison, the trade union, found that some of those who said they were certain to vote had not registered’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/25/livingstone.london08
From the Guardian
However, the study for Unison, the trade union, found that some of those who said they were certain to vote had not registered. Once that was factored in, Livingstone’s lead shrunk to just 4%
The 4% is after 2nd preferences
Since the poll seems to include people who cannot vote, I do wonder to what extent it’s reliable.
How many polls have Unions commissioned? What proportion of those have they released?
I think there’s something slightly seedy going on with these polls.
so who on earth were they surveying? would BPC rules just allow them to ring anyone and weight it? bonkers.
I reckon the unions are purposely driving ken’s price down with fictious polls, so on the day of the election they can lay him or back boris heavily. If your man’s going down, might as well make some big money out of it!!!
5. remember smithsons first law ! though i accept there is the faint wiff of fish here.
Curiouser and curiouser!
Mike,
Do you know if polling organisations ask the interviewee if they are on the electoral register> Otherwise there seems little point in asking the questions as they are disenfranchised are they not??
5: ‘What proportion of those have they released?’
Only the ones that show Ken ahead thus creating a one sided impression.
Kens price isnt really moving.
Boris still well odds on
@8:
I am remembering the law here. I’m not saying it’s a rogue poll. I am saying that Unison may well be abusing MORI’s good name and cynically using them as a propaganda wing of Livingstone’s campaign.
@11:
Well, this is what I mean. If Unison have commissioned, say, thirty polls and have released two, both of which show a Ken lead, what are your conclusions? (Other than MORI could be having their good name smeared unwittingly by Livingstone backers)
How did they know who wasn’t on the register? It just seems a bizarre thing to filter with any certainty. How do they know there are still not people in the poll who can’t vote? It just seems odd. Albeit I think that the race is going to be quite tight, I just don’t buy this 4 or 6 point Ken lead.
“This is the first of several polls expected this weekend.”
Based on 2000 and 2004, which other polling organisations can we expect this weekend?
14: Most people only release favourable private polling. If this is private polling (which is still uncertain) then the likelihood is that it was only released because it showed Ken ahead.
Also this poll seems to have been conducted in a very inept way so the results should be treated with caution.
Was a member of UNISON once. Utterly pitiful service coupled with an (illegal) refusal to let me opt out of the Labour levy. I resigned after 6 months. I’m not saying Mori would fiddle the figures but the question mike lists is a little odd and doesn’t treat all candidates equally. lets hope they haven’t used it again and this is legit but if not it begs the question as to wether UNISON haven’t got anything better to do with there money?
When will full details be on the MORI website
did this poll get reported??
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/polls/2008/pdf/london-mayor-poll-for-unison-23-24-april-2008s.pdf
i cant remem their being an ipsos-mori poll of late
YouGov tends to be the most accurate measure, Unison is just a joke when it comes to polling.
(repost) Julia will find this hard to explain on May 2nd.
Why in the hell are Unison doing polling like this anyway? They should be spending that money on their members.
OT
Re: Indiana - 15 point swing today from Clinton to Obama on Intrade so now 50/50
UPDATE - I’ve now had a conversation with MORI about the poll and have added an update.
re 23 sorry 7.5 % swing…..15 pt movement. Must be the two polls out today showing Obama ahead
I have been saying for a few days that Ken only releases polls when they go in his direction. I am surprised it was only two people not registered to vote. In London around 15% are not on the register or have moved and are on a register some distance away !
Yet again, we have a poll conducted over a very shrot period of time and then instantly published, which shows Ken in the lead.
As Mike says the pollsters are setting themselves up for a day of judgement.
May 2nd could see some blood on the pollsters walls.
Meanwhile election day has a 60% chance of light rain.
Mori seem to be struggling to stay in the game as a credible pollster, a bad May 2nd could see them off.
Mike is right - it’s interesting, which polling methodolgy will be closest? Ipsos-Mori are a respected and open company. We can see the question and the data should be on their web-site in next day or so. They will provide the objective data - it’s us/Livingstone/media who will treat it subjectively.
In past elections polls have over-estimated Ken’s first round lead and I’m not convinced this will be any different. I’d expect others to get a greater share of first preferences than any of the polls are showing and would be interested to see how those break between Boris and Ken. Also how many intending to vote are still don’t knows? Still think it looks more like Boris than Ken but its close.
So on first preferences, Boris and Paddick are down 2% from Ipsos’s previous emission, Ken unchanged.
1-7th April
41% for Ken Livingstone, 40% for Boris Johnson, 14% for Brian
Paddick, and 5% for Sian Berry
23rd-24th April
KEN 41%: (UNCH) BORIS 38%: (-2%) PADDICK 12% (-2%) Sian??
What’s the deal with the first poll going over 7 days and the second over 2 days?
30 not so much the poll, but the time taken to check, weight etc
Any news on the times endorsement? not that I’m expecting a shock.
Presumably a Unison GE “poll” right now would show a ten point Labour lead?
Laughable.
29 - this is, I think, the only recent poll to show Ken and Boris getting under 80% between them.
UPDATE I’ve now had a further conversation with MORI, who have been very helpful, about the leak which caused the Guardian to focus on figures BEFORE those who were not registered were taken off.
This simply adds to the impression that the paper is so desperate to report this race in a particular way that it has suspended its critical faculties.
Why is this polling story not covered by their respect polling correspondent Julian Glover?
The Guardian is now, in my view, worse than the Standard for biased reporting on this election. How pathetic?
I don’t really understand the Guardian’s attitude. May come as a suprise [!] but its not my bag. I would have thought its readers were Ken’s people for the most part.
Are they trying to influence the Lib Dem second preference which might be softer for the Tories?
Am I missing something? Isnt the bigger thing the link Ryans spotted:
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/polls/2008/pdf/london-mayor-poll-for-unison-23-24-april-2008s.pdf
Isnt that a new MORI poll with the Tory lead 9 points? I’m putting a bet on.
35 Why not Julian? I expect he’s gone to Derbyshire for the weekend.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 48%
Note - Obama +5% yesterday.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106822/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Tied-48-47.aspx
That IS the thing
37 there has been a london wide poll done since
41. you are missing the point. It is not a londonwide poll. It is a mistitled presentation with the April Mori tracker.
Exactly!
CLICK ON THE LINK!
McCain says North Carolina Republican leadership ‘is out of touch with reality’ over its’ attack ad on Obama :
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2535509420080425
42/43 that is what i was saying, and there had been another poll done since the one with all the colourful charts
New ARG Primary poll for Indiana :
Clinton 45% .. Obama 50%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/indem8-702.html
46 - you mean the yougov poll? Which closed 1 (one) day later. You think its not worth considering the Mori poll? Interesting point of view…
The economic optimism figures at the end of the presentation are fascinating, and explain a lot, imo.
It looks like a real poll. And makes the yougov poll look either a bit roguish, perhaps just full of usual yougov optimism. (Don’t think I am subject to the Smithson rule here: both of these have the lib dems at the upper end of their range with the respective pollers, and I would prefer to believe the yougov poll this time).
The link is clearly to the April monitor . The absolutely certain to vote figures with comparison to the March monitor are Con 40 N/C Lab 31 -4 LibDem 19 +1 Others 10 +3
The national Mori poll is interesting in that the figures for those expressing a voting intention (74%) put the two main parties neck and neck (Labour 1% ahead).
Whereas, the figures for those certain to vote (54%) put the tories 9% ahead.
Because there could be a change of government next time, I would expect that the turnout would be higher than 2001(59%) and 2005(61%). In the 1997 election the turnout was 71%.
These figures should be quite encouraging for the government in the mid-term of a third parliament.
Don’t MORI normally publish new polls in the Sunday Observer newspaper. I wonder why they put this on their website. Do you think it is a mistake, especially as the link says it is the london poll presentation and it is only Friday - two days early.
53 - No, Mori often just put their monthly political monitor on the website.
55. they often pulish thi wy if they can’t fidn buyer. certinly conirms the trend of the other pllster bt not uiteas apocalyptic as you gov
If they are right about the mayoral race, they may find a buyer.
If not, not.
55 have you been at the babychams yellow submarine
Yellow Sub. Is your boss looking over your shoulder or are you typing on a bumpy train?
New thread - MORI national poll gives Tories a 9% lead
52. Bless you, Gabble. Keep hope alive.
Just to add - there was somebody on here from Kent claiming to have been asked by yougov how they would vote - but they don’t have one. This could be skewing their results (especially as those outside are probably more likely to be Conservative). Might be something worth asking Peter Kellner.
Woops ! Off out now for a beard and sandals event about conflict resolution with a vegetarian buffet. Wouldn’t want to lt those strotypes die Enjoy the thread on MORI.
I think the outside London point has been covered. They periodically update their records in case people move etc but its inevitable there is a some overlap.
Stereotypes are all well and good but I hope you have put your deodorant on.
It doesn’t say much does it for Ipsos MORI’s credibility that despite their poll showing Ken having a clear lead (i.e. beyond the margin of error), Boris remains the odds 0n favourite to win.
Didn’t someone here, ahem, suggest just a couple of days ago that it was time to “Bet the farm on Boris”?
Well all those Moo-Cows and Porkers now have their necks on the line.
Mike, were Boris to win ultimately, how about inviting Mr Worcester back onto PB.com to explain how it all went wrong?
60 Gabble,I’m 37,a Labour Party member since age 14,and I’m resigned to the best result (in more ways than one) for Labour next time could (and may well be) a ‘respectable 1979 scale’ defeat
Patrick - I missed your recent second lapse - was it just the one Marlboro again? Try screwing up the pack!
I survived my Double Nelson last week and am now 231-0.
Livingstone is running with most of the advantages of an independent and most of the advantages of a party machine. Then again, Boris is doing pretty much the same.
What I mean by this is that KL isn’t being associated (that much) with the failures of Labour nationally, but is getting the benefits of tribal support, campaigning etc.
Boris is not quite so detached, but again is somewhat distant from the national party.
I would be surprised if KL doesn’t do better than Labour nationally by a very wide margin. I think he will lose, though.
Although I have grave concerns about this poll I actually think Ken is really narrowing the gap and I think the money should be on him fast. I hate to say this, but I think he’s going to do it. Reminds me of the last days of Major vs Kinnock in 1992 this …
I can tell you that in our part of East London, Ken is getting virtually no ‘tribal support, campaigning’ etc - we’ve seen no literature from him or Paddick or anyone except Boris, and we haven’t been canvassed.
So why should we be bothered to vote for candidates that can’t be bothered to contact us?
22 Why in the hell are Unison doing polling like this anyway? They should be spending that money on their members.
They can’t see a Boris win being in the interests of their members.Their view will be Tory win = cuts in public expenditure = redundancies
When MORI first published the data on their website, they had figures on whether people were likely to change their mind, leads on trust and a number of specific policies and top issues for Londoners. It showed that Londoners trust Ken over Boris by around 10% from what I remember.
They have now taken it down, but under the BPC rules do they have to publish it now it has been in the public domain?