Double Carpet on Sunday
April 27th, 2008
So will it be Ken or Boris? - the PBC London Mayor Competition
Just four days until London goes to the polls - who do you think will be the new Mayor and how will the various candidates fare?
You will be asked to predict the first preference shares for Ken, Boris, and Brian, plus the BNP, Greens, Left List, and UKIP, and then the final vote share for your predicted overall winner. (Final vote share is winner’s total votes / total votes for top two candidates x 100 - Ken’s final vote share in 2004 was 55.4%)
Please click here to open the competition which is in Excel format:
Please do not make any predictions in this thread as they will not count.
The scoring system is available on the second sheet of the attachment, and the prize will be a copy of Mike’s book The Political Punter.
Save the attachment (if you open it straight away it may be in read-only mode) and send your predictions to pbpredcomp@yahoo.co.uk - entries close 7pm Wednesday.
International round-up
A poll out today by Red C in the Sunday Business Post suggests that support for a “Yes” vote in the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is dropping, with the Yes/No/Undecided split now 35-31-34. Paddy Power offer evens on a “No” vote, which may be value - what do pb’s resident Irish experts, Neil, Yokel, and Caveman think?
The markets: St John may be glad to know that I’ll be keeping an eye an international betting markets in DC on Sunday, although they are fairly quiet at present away from the US. One however that I do think is value is to back the Nationals in New Zealand - they have had comfortable poll leads for a while now and although trading is very thin on Betfair, there is £173 available at 1.31. I hope to feature NZ in more depth as we approach the election in the autumn.
Finally, a useful article from Bloomberg ahead of the German election in 2009, speculating on whether SPD leader Kurt Beck or Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the popular Foreign Minister, will be going head-to-head with Merkel as the party’s Kanzlerkandidat in the Bundestag election. Merkel looks currently nailed on for a second term, with the CDU/CSU having had big leads for months - the key question is what the makeup of the next government will be.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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I don’t know about the vote share but I still have a sneaking suspicion Ken will nick it.
Dimbleby came very close to exposig Johnson and I think the electorate is cottoning on.
Are we still expecting a mayoral YOu Gov tommorrow? And the Independent monthly ComReS ? If so do we know when they’ll leak?
2. When ? Where ? Link ?
I do hope the Irish tell the EU to bugger off with their referendum.
I’ll do the prediction thing in a little while. Do we get a prize? Some whisky, if Ken wins, or a nymphomaniac secretary if Boris does?:p
2, there were apparently quite a few complaints that Dimbleby had been biased and rather anti-Boris.
Bah Humbug. I suggested about 4 weeks ago that we should have a GLA predikshun competition as soon as the list of candidates was known, but only now has it appeared. Now that I have seen loads of postal votes being processed, I can’t enter the competition because it would be insider-predicting with priveleged information. So I’m going to grumble and sulk instead.
Incidentally, the competition entry form is flawed because it doesn’t specify whether you want the percentage for the winning candidate as a % of the total turnout (e.g. 42.4%) or only of the second round total (e.g. 51.3%).
6. I think that was balanced out by the fact that the audience seemed to be, to me at least, marginally anti-Ken. (Though not necessarily pro-Boris.)
Thanks to Paul Maggs for the competition by the way, will enter shortly…
7 - So JohnLoony, YouGov or Mori?
Here is a comparison of the change in National polls for this month with their 2004 equivalents.
YouGov/Telegraph C +5 LAB -9 LD -2
MORI C +6 LAB -5 LD -3
ICM/Guardian C +6 LAB -4 LD -3
Populus/Times C +6 LAB -4 LD -3
Apart from Yougov’s April 2008 difference, all the other figures are within a 1 point change.
We should therefore expect Labour and the LDs to lose seats and the Conservatives to gain them on Thursday.
Yougov actually has a slightly smaller drop for the LDs than the other pollsters! Yougov favourable to LDs! I hope Mark Senior is sitting down!
This is harder than it looks - at my first attempt the ‘others’ came to minus 5.5%.
7. Don’t know what the intention was, but I read it as meaning out of the second-round total - which means the result must, by definition, be over 50%.
7. John, I recall you making a prediction a while before you went to the opening of the postal votes. Why not use that one, just for fun?
JohnLoony, final vote share is winner’s total votes / (winner’s total votes + runner-up’s total votes) x 100 - the calculation as normally used by pollsters & media organisations - eg Ken’s final score in 2004 was 55.4%.
13. Because I want to sulk about the fact that my suggestion for a competition was not activated as soon as the list of candidates was known. And because I don’t want the prize book anyway. But for the record, my original prediction was this:
Boris 36.0 + 6.4 = 42.2
Ken 32.1 + 8.1 = 40.2
Brian Paddick 15.5
Richard Barnbrook (BNP) 4.2
Sian Berry (Green) 3.6
Lindsey German (LL) 2.8
Gerard Batten (UKIP) 2.4
Alan Craig (CPA/CP) 2.3
Matt O’Connor (ED) 0.9
Winston McKenzie (Ind) 0.2
non-transferable + 17.4 = 17.4
10. well worth publishing as a reminder. Thats why I’m on for a smallish net loss of seats for the lib dems. Lab have fallen further than us so we will pick up there but the gap between us and the troies has grown signifigantly so we’ll lose a bit there. Interesting thread on LD prospects on Lib Dem voice. Its refreshingly troll free and mildly gloomy.
9. What about Yougov and Mori ???
11 - everybody seems to be overestimating the Boris and Ken first round scores. I put their combined total on 69%. Some pollsters are putting them close to 90%.
17 - As a personal opinion, which has more accurately reflected the london mayoral elections???
16 - as Ralph pointed out we do not really know whether YouGov overstates Labour, or overstates whoever is in front. The mayoral election should shed light.
16 - So the Lib Dems are mildly gloomy, the Tories on Con Home are totally gloomy (about their prospects in the London elections at least) and god knows how gloomy the Labour hommies (maybe they are utterly high on the Brown stuff…)
19. Don’t know; don’t care. Ever since the 1992 debacle I haven’t taken much notice of opinion polls apart from getting the general feel of them over a period. I am not obsessed with every passing fluctuation of +1% or -2%. Whenever I hear about an opinion poll, I always bear in mind
(a) that it has been fiddled/adjusted/weighted
(b) that it doesn’t fully reflect those who are certain to vote
(c) the sample frame is inaccurate
(d) it has a margin of error
(e) it is out of date.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106828/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Obama-Remain-Tied-47.aspx
21. I did a brief trolling stint on ConHome during the Lit fiasco and grammar schools. The problem was I always ended up being more pro tory than most of the supporters. There lack of perspective and self hate is amazing! I told one of them to go away and read the “Strange Death of Liberal England” and think about what they were doing to there party. At least cammo can muzzle them while he is ahead.
Beginning to look like a small Clinton bounce to me. I notice the press coverage from US sites continues to be giving golden boy a kicking and theres another monir incident from his state senate days come up. About ping pong of all things !
Er, sorry. I brilliantly forgot to attach the document for my first response.
*sighs*
Thanks to Double Carpet for the updates - very interesting.
To reply to witan on the previous thread - as others have noted, you can vote wherever you have a legal residence (council tax is also payable in each such residence), so long as they are for different bodies.
But in any case Broxtowe isn’t having any local elections this year, nor is anywhere else in Greater Nottingham. We view with bemusement vote-junkie authorities who insist on mobilising everyone for a third of the councillors every year.
I think Obama may lose Indiana. There’s simply no traction to his campaign at the moment - very strange for a candidate who was supposed to “inspire” people.
I’m suprised actually - I think the Obama message of “change” has died - When the economy is hurting badly, people elect the person they feel more safe with. Their PR guys have got to come up with a new narrative or make their losing worse going forward.
14, Argh. I just put it as first prefs + second prefs (mid-40s).
Hmm. With instruction following skills and clear thinking ability like this I should work in the mortgage market.
*kicks self*
2. Exposing him for what?
@27 Labour is very effective here in Nottingham, I believe the last council elections were pretty bad for us as Conservatives.
Perhaps labours only last powerful stronghold in the East Midlands. - The fact that Nottingham has been pretty successful with a labour council - Shockingly
29. It would be easy for Paul to add validation to ensure that only a value of at 50% can be entered in the winners column…
For some odd reason, Lord Laidlaw has my utmost respect.
Still Rock & Rolling at 64. Good on the (virile) old boy!
I see Britain’s Richest Person is Labour Donor Lakshmi Mittal. Does anyone know how much tax he pays?
“When the economy is hurting badly, people elect the person they feel more safe with. ”
28 - So people will re-elect Brown because he’s mucked up the economy? Frankly, the polls, and I, don’t believe it.
Same with Bush/McCain, the only job the Dems need to complete is to link the two in the public’s mind.
27. What is the justification for electing councils by halves and thirds? No main parliamentary chamber is elected in this way as far as I know (except for the US Senate where greater continuity and experience are considered a priority).
32 should read “at least 50%”
28
Maybe this will Obama’s capacity to inspire in Indiana:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mimaNFEbg6U
He played basketball against healthy young guys; and he plaiyed it like a pro!
35 - Continuity. It means that local councils won’t experience enormous administrative upheaval every four years (with all the associated costs) often just because of a transient national issue. Living in a council which regularly seems to swing from one landslide to another I could appreciate the alternative.
Nick Palmer. Can you explain how GB can survive the Levy memoirs.If his statements are false, he would be subject to an enormous libel claim- difficult to believe. If true, GB knew about the Labour loans and lied. Did he lie to Parliament?Did he lie to the investigators?How can he answer a simple question at PMQ “Did you know?”
16 Yellow sub “Interesting thread on LD prospects on Lib Dem voice”
I had a look but could not find the actual thread on LDV.
Any link?
Nicely prepared competition thanks DC. It was harder than I thought as I can’t decide whether the BNP will outpoll the Greens - I have judged that they will; I have Boris just edging it, mostly because I win money off Nick Palmer if this happens
35. In my experience electing by thirds (a) knackers political parties (b) keeps them on there toes (c) ensures that council elections are a bit like by elections where incumbants are kicked because the big question of control is rarely asked (d) leads to paralyis when wards are split because councillors are tobusy trying to knife the other (e) means correspondence is copied needly to 3 people all the time.
@34
Brown is not competent at the managing the Economy. Neither is Bush. The Clinton’s however have a good record on that front.
But as I said again, when you struggle in a bad time, you don’t need a senator talking about hope and history.
Does Gordon Brown have a bad effect on people who are electioneering?
Will it also do for Ken?
34
Does anybody you think McCain apparent strategy to distance himself from the GOP and Bush might work?
Here is my theory:
In order for McCain to compete for the voters in the center (Reagan Democracts and Independants), the ‘maverick’ is taking shots at the GOP.
HE critized :
–> Bush’s handling of Katrina
–> the North Carolina GOP commercial with Jeremiah Wright ‘god***ing America’,
–> Cincinnati talk show host Bill Cunningham for calling Obama, Barack HUSSEIN Obama.
And doing so, he is drawing a sharp contrast both between McCain and Bush — and McCAin and Obama.
For Obama did not critize the McCain’s way Ed Schultz calling McCain a warmonger; neither did he strongly condamned Jay Rockefeller suggesting fighter pilots like McCain do not care about the lives of people on the ground for they are dropping bombing on them.
A Now, the question: will the Reagan Democrats and the Independant voters notice?
40. Its not as recent as i thought and you’ll have to go to older entries on the main page. However I have just checked and its still there posted 21/4/08.
39 an easier question would be “has brown ever told the truth about anything?” a hopeless liar that has been rumbled by the public. “the constitutional concept has been abandoned” LOL!!
43 - Bill Clinton is not on the ticket, Hillary’s biggest contribution, however, was the massively cocked-up health plan. Not someone who you could put your trust in as regards the economy.
On a side issue I don’t think Bill Clinton is well, his health scares look to have taken their toll.
45 - It’s what he’s trying but there’s a lot of material out there to show that he is linked. It will probably end up like Clinton and the lies like Bosnia and other ‘experience’, people will believe it for a time and some will be ‘low information’ voters who are stuck in believing what is later disproved.
Let’s face it when 13% of Americans think Obama is muslim you’ve either got a lot of stupid voters or a lot of voters who get their information from the ‘my mate said’ channel.
45. He still has the same position as Bush on:
Iraq
Iran
Healthcare
The Economy
Immigration (since his u-turn)
Tax cuts
Education
The odd criticism of your party won’t matter much if you have all the same positions for the future..
34, Thats a bit rich it doesn`t matter what the economy is doing for your vote.
37 Can’t do Obama any harm being filmed wearing a USMC t-shirt either, USMC being the United States Marine Corps..
33. ‘Tory has group sex with prostitutes’ shock.
I’ve always assumed that’s how a lot of Tories behave. Just a question of whether we catch them out.
52 Having sex isnt illegal. Prostitution isnt illegal.
What is your point?
48
“Let’s face it when 13% of Americans think Obama is muslim you’ve either got a lot of stupid voters or a lot of voters who get their information from the ‘my mate said’ channel.”
–> I am amazed by that stats — especially after all those clips of his former pastor J. Wright — running on and on and on…
Maybe it’s a coded way of saying to the pollster: ‘I’ll never vote for him because he is not white’.
53 I agree what is the point.
If they are consenting adults whats it got to do with anything.
54 - 8% said they would never vote for a black president. So there’s your breakdown of US demographics - 8% racist, 5% stupid.
Er………… I think the fact he a married man paying women for sex means it is legitimate for to say he’s been ‘caught out’.
There are plenty of morally ‘dubious’ activities that aren’t illegal.
57, True but thats between him and his wife and their situation, it should not be a partisan point.
No party has the moral highground.
51, Oh big F**king deal…..
57 - Is “caught out” quite the right phrase in this case?
58 Although,and I speak with as much sorrow as accusatuin in ny voice,John Majors 1992-7 Cabinet was a nit of a shag-a-thon
:D
57 Er….. what about a married man performing a bit of self love? Is that also borderline illegal dubious?
Seems to me, if he 64, she is probably of a similar age and probably doesnt want the attention.
So, like Mark Oaten, he broke any laws. Unlike Bill Clinton, he told no barefaced lie. It is between him and his elderly wife - nothing to do with voyueristic types such as yourself.
As my old mum used to say, “Look after your own onions”.
57 - I’m impressed if you’ve got this far through life without doing anything of dubious morality. Have you considered a career as pope? Alternatively, you can do what the rest of us do which is privately enjoy the salacious details and draw no particular conclusions about human sexuality and politics. John Prescott and Mark Oaten spring to mind as good examples from other parties and I have no doubt that they will continue for as long as we fail to castrate male politicians on election.
BORIS VS BORIS
““Boris,” the media monkeys told him, “you have to get dull. And make your hair flatter.” This strikes me as counterintuitive to an absurd degree – the Conservative party chooses a candidate who is liked by the public principally for his refusal, or inability, to play the widely despised political game, a man who has those rare commodities of personality and hinterland and wit – and then sets about methodically stripping him of all these things because they think it will alienate the voters. Where is the evidence for that? Common sense would tell you the reverse is true: Boris’s popularity is a consequence of being unorthodox.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rod_liddle/article3822571.ece
Any thought about this?
2. I’ve just watched the QT debate online.
Actually, I thought Boris Johnson came across very well. He had much more charisma and style. He looked very professional.
I think Boris will edge it 51%/49%.
53 55 58 . I know this guy is in the Lords , but a lot of people would never vote for an adulterer.The same applies to having kids out of wedlock - or indeed ‘living in sin’.That such behaviour is now widely viewed as ‘ok’ simply highlights how morally decadent society has now become.
‘a bit of self love? Is that borderline illegal dubious?’ - no it isn’t.
Look these women are consenting adults, but are you really comfortable with it. I know they say they don’t care, but it’s pretty grotty and exploitative. Maybe there is a double standard here. prescott gets sympathy for his compulsions, so do drug addicts nowadays. But the Tory Party does like to play the family values card and yet many of them do seem to have a devious side.
I suppose it’s the sense of them trying to keep a veneer of respectability in public, but prefer debauchery in private.
63 I think Mr Frank is an old fashioned hypocrite in the truest sense.
67 - “But the Tory Party does like to play the family values card and yet many of them do seem to have a devious side.”
Have we just gone back in time to 1993?
68 But that is understandable because as a Labour clone, he is programmed to find fault in Conservatives. Similarly, he must protect Lefties at all costs.
His programming is as Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics.
10 and 14
Comparisons are I assume with April 2004 polls.However as Locals in 2004 were in June therelevant comparioson is with May 2004.This shows on ICM no change in Lib Dem vote 20v 20.
I would still go for static in seats but some possible whole council gains from Labour.
Rogerh
64, Philipe I agree with that his unorthodoxy is his strength.
However when he was going around the Universities as Higher education minister, he know bug*er all about student funding and didn`t know what his stance was on Tution fees.
Having said that the Conservative parties policy changes with the seasons.
Without meaning to sound ‘holier-than-thou’,I personally hate adultery.During my 2 year relationship with my ex,we had a bust-up and did’nt speak or see each other for a week.
Late in that week I was in a pub where a saucily dressed 19-20 year-old was winking at me,giving me the come-on all night.Many men would have leapt at the chance.Something inside me said ‘No.I will NOT be unfaithful to Chrstine (my ex) Thats just me,how I felt
67. No. Sorry. The acts of a person you dont like is not a reason to have a debate about morals.
Sex urges are what they are.
73 Well done you. Buy yourself a prize. A new CD perhaps.
67
So Prescott was unacceptable as Deputy PM?
Some politicans need to remember the Eleventh Commandment.
64: ‘Any thought about this?’
I think many in the media are just surprised/disappointed that Boris has conducted himself with a degree of professionalism and hasn’t made a total t*t of himself.
69 “But the Tory Party does like to play the family values card”
The Conservatives wont be “playing the family values card”.
Conservatives are family orientated. 50,000 years of evolution has shown the family unit is the best way to build a stable society. There is no card. There is no card game. You wont need reminding. It will just be there and you will see it in the policies.
69 “and yet many of them do seem to have a devious side.”
Yes, Conservatives are Human and make no apologies for it.
71. good point. I hadn’t thought about that.
Am I right to assume that if this You GOv or ComREs was comming out tomorrow it would have leaked by now?
“So Prescott was unacceptable as Deputy PM?”
This statement is pretty self-evidently true. Don’t give a monkeys about what he does with his secretary (and would very much rather never have learnt).
59 Yokel
Well in a campaign where he is getting grief for whether he wears a flag pin or not it is a big deal. Shouldn’t be imho but that’s the way it is. My in-laws are a military family and do notice these kind of things.
25. Rasmussen tracking poll shows obama holding steady with a 6 point lead so cool your jets with talk of a clinton bounce
Yes, but I always feel this whole Tory family values thing is a bit fudged. Affairs etc aren’t too big a deal, just don’t get divorced. Wives should just accept that ‘men will be men’. Show the stiff upper lip and move on.
Why are we aving a competition solely on the London Mayoral election?Very Londoncentric!
Why not vote shares and seat changes for the Locals?
Rogerh
Pleasing to see, wasn’t it, that The Daily Mail has yet again been named as Daily Newspaper of the Year?
Cue to stand back and await much booing, hissing, spitting and gnashing of teeth.
65. Further to my post..
The QT London audience seemed geninuely terrified by crime and violent crime. When mugging was mentioned, cries of “I have” went up from all over the audience..
I think this will nail Livingstone too. Boris really had the audience with him on this.
Boris to win 51%/49%.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE DNC?
Again, the DNC might give McCain an edge to attract the center:
Look at this new ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6ul9iMgmOw
where McCain’s words are again stated as though he called for 100 years of war — as every talking heads on TV — from Fox to CNN to MSNBC to CBS to ABC — knew he meant 100 years of relatively peaceful occupation as in Germany and Japan and S. Korea.
I think this might help McCain — urging pundits to restore the facts.
But maybe I’m wrong.
84
Yeah baby!
Obama is soooo cooooool — but Wright and Ayers and Rezko might too much hot!
As a result, Obama might look average on the long run before November…
Evening all
To pick up Paul’s point about New Zealand, this is the latest monthly opinion poll from Colmar Brunton:
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/413551/1728614
The “key” (so to speak) here is the fall in the Green vote which makes any Labour coalition almost impossible. On these figures National will win big in the autumn but Michael Cullen still has one card left to play:
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/425825/1746143
Whether a tax bribe will erode the National lead remains to be seen.
Re: 64 - I’ve alluded to this before. Boris does well because he does not play it too seriously and in a time of uncertainty and anxiety this is a welcome relief for many.
I watched Cameron this morning on the Andrew Marr show. I thought Marr got the questioning right on tax and spend and Cameron looked weak in some areas. We’ve heard all this talk from Tories before about a huge reservoir of waste (identified by Gershon before 2005 and I think a similar exercise was done before 1979) but getting down to specifics is very diffcult. To achieve the kind of tax cuts required would require the identification of billions, not millions of waste.
It may be there in central Government. I work with LOCAL Government - there’s no wastage there. Indeed, many Councils are so emaciated in terms of admin that they don’t spend money well and that makes them inefficient. I think people assume waste and inefficiency are a product of a “fat” organisation - it can also happen in “thin” organisations. One other thought - in my experience, an efficient Council isn’a always a well-run Council, So much depends on member-officer relationships and there is frequently tension at the highest levels.
BORIS’S ARE 1.82 ON BETFAIR: http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=20690681&rfr=400&ex=1
88. Boris to win 55 45
When the London mayoralty competition on PB closes on Weds evening, perhaps Paul will be able to let us know the average forecast result or at least the percentages that have voted for Ken & Boris, respectively, to win.
Ken to win 52:48. I don’t know enough about the other likely vote shares to make a full prediction.
92 Boris now 1.85 on Betfair and going out all the time - it sounds like someone has got wind of the imminent YouGov Mayoralty poll and it’s singularly bad news for the Tories.
70 Runaway Nag
“But that is understandable because as a Tory clone, he is programmed to find fault in Labourites. Similarly, he must protect Righties at all costs.
His programming is as Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics.”
Now, who are we talking about?
Malcolm
88
Gun, knife and gang crime is the worst it has ever been, according to a survey of 1,200 front-line police officers.
Beat officers say they are witnessing an ever-worsening trend of violent street crime, despite ministers’ insistence that violent offences are falling.
The findings come as Labour faces an uphill battle to convince voters..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/27/nelect227.xml
91
‘I work with LOCAL Government-there’s no wastage there’
How many councils in how many regions do you work with to come up with a sweeping generalisation like that ?
Every organisation whether public or private has waste.
87 “Pleasing to see, wasn’t it, that The Daily Mail has yet again been named as Daily Newspaper of the Year?”
I try to read all newspaper sites to get a balanced view of the world situation. Whatever political bias a site has, Leftie or Right, there will always be some bias. The Telegraph is fairly balanced but may miss items.
I criticize the Mail frequently and for good reason. I dont even like it. However, when taking in the news, I always visit them first.
On the other hand, I have stopped browsing the BBC completely - unless directed by a poster’s link. It doesnt report news it doesnt like.
The only reason to check if the BBC is reporting a story - is that the story has become so big they cannot hide it.
90 M Philippe
I used to have a drink after meetings with a member of the Monday Club. His views on virtually all issues were the complete opposite of those that I held. My friendship with him was well-known by my party colleagues. It was never held against me.
I have never held the view that one is to be held to the views of one’s friends; only the media will make a froth about Obama’s associates.
Goodness gracious, H Rodham Clinton is married to a mass-murderer; and that relationship can only be considered important if she was supporting his genocidal decisions; only, if she had huge influence in the White House. And as for McCain - he’s a member of the modern Republican party so his associates will include former KKK members and John Birch Society members and ex-Nazis of every stripe.
Are his associates to be considered?
Malcolm
Re: 99 - JohnF, I work mainly with south-east counties, all of which are Conservative-controlled and a number of District and Borough Councils within those areas. Again, most of these are Tory-run.
I don’t know how you quantify “waste” but to argue that there is the degree of waste of public money that media like the Daily Mail asserts to be the truth, is for these authorities false.
99 - I’ve got to admit i’m struggling a bit in the distinction between waste and inefficiency.
102 - Of course the main point in local govt is that some are high spenders by necessity due to poor long term decision making, poor financial management abilities, poor procurement practices etc (ignoring the inevitable problems that exist in any democratic organisation).
There are obviously savings that can be made in local government - that’s how the “best” stay the best - but potential for short term savings is always restricted. The difference between the best and the worst is that the worst have more scope for medium/long term efficiencies if they can get the leadership in place.
103. Here’s my take on the difference.
Waste - something that provides no real benefit
Inefficiency - something that provides some real benefit but could be done in a more efficient way.
103 alex
One man’s inefficiency is another man’s food on the table for his family. For most people working for an inefficient organisation is preferable to being unemployed.
Why should turkeys vote for Christmas?
Malcolm
104
given the current investigation into building contracts and overpricing councils, and my own personal experieinces in well and badly run organisations, I would expect the:
cost difference between a well run council and a badly run one to exceed 25% of total expenditure.
Re: 102- Alex, as I’ve argued here before, one of the biggest factors in local government expenditure is the escalating demanf for and rising cost of adult social care. I have spoken to a number of senior finance officers who tell me year-on-year efficiency savings of up to 5% are wiped out by these rising costs leaving the Councils in a bad financial position.
My contention is that “fat” organisations tend to be wasteful in that they spend too much doing particular tasks but “thin” organisations tend to be inefficient in that they cannot do the job properly within the emaciated infrastructure.
re 96. Peter - maybe it is just delayed reaction to the MORI and MRUK polls. These didn’t really move the markets in the way that you would have expected and it is happening now.
There’s also the possibility that an ICM survey is in the offing.
I’m not doing anything until we have seen YouGov
What about the non-collection of rates by ccuncils? The rest of the rate payers end up carrying the free riders.
There’s a bit of a hoo-ha brewing in the US media about McCain using his wife’s private jet to campaign for heavily discounted rates. Private jet use by politicians is controversial as many congressmen from both sides of the aisle had been getting free flights from comporations to get around donation laws.
Personally, I don’t think he’s done anything wrong if it’s owned by his wife, and I don’t think it will come to anything. Thought it was worth mentioning in case others disagreed.
101
How is it doing Malcom?
I’m sure you’ll understand that since Obama was not exactly a household name before the Iowa Caucus and the fantastic speech he gave after losing the N.H. primary — it is fair to assess that a lot of the swing voters — Reagan Democrats and centrist Independant — wanna know who Obama worked and prayed with. They wanna know what the cool guy actully stand for — beyond his marvelous words.
I mean: he worked only 3 years in the Senate before launching a very well-run Presidential campaign. In the perception, a lot of people think they cannot exactly look at his CV to get a picture of where is he really standing. Beyond words.
The only way those swing-voters can access to Obama’s soul (in their perception) is by knowing who did he associate with?
Did he actually worked with Ayers?
Was not his wife proud of America before Iowa?
Does he actually share Wright’s point of view that the US government is as terroristic as A-Qaeda?
MY POINT IS: I don’t judge if those issues are actually relevant to know where Obama actually stands on what really matters (like national security and a free economy) — I just say that for a lot of people it does matter. As a result, Obama’s candidacy might suffer a lot in the coming months. Especially under the GOP attack machine!!!
107 I totally agree. One only has to look at Wandsworth Borough Council to see how it should be done - an excellent service and the lowest Council Tax in the land.
56. Lots of people are racist but wouldn’t want to admit it outright to a pollster (or even themselves).
The evens on a ‘no’ vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland is nowhere near the value of the 5/1 Paddy Power were offering a few weeks ago
.
The key question will probably be turnout. The higher it is the more likely the ‘yes’ side is to win (’no’ voters tend to be more motivated). Unfortunately I haven’t seen the detail of any polls giving figures on likelihood to vote and I dont know how the polling companies are allowing for likelihood to vote in the headline results.
My gut feeling is that it wil lbe quite close but that the ‘yes’ side will win but traditionally the ‘yes’ side starts out polling well before falling away badly (in fact what I think happens is that more ‘yes’ voters dont bother voting).
The current odds dont look like great value (though I will probably lock in my profit from the 5/1 odds of a few weeks ago).
102. I agree that local government is struggling to square the circle of increased service expectations with reduced RSG but still think there’s loads more that could be done to make local government more efficient. The work culture is out of step with what is expected in the private sector and a lack of commercialism means that the public sector frequently does bad deals.
109) Mike it is quite a move - 1.7 ish to 1.87 in a few hours. So I would reckon that it is a response to some specific new info. Whether the person has has the scoop is making a sensible decision is another matter - the person that had the mruk details didn’t make money yet..
Have we seen moves this early ahead of yougov polls? I suspect not, not until tomorrow morning perhaps? Which leaves comres or ICM or perhaps even ipsos-mori - eyes down chaps…
102 & 108
So a very small sample of Tory only run councils in one region,hardly representative of the country?
‘I have spoken to a number of senior finance officers’
Do you seriously think that these (or any other) senior finance officers are going to admit to an outsider like you that they run a wasteful,inefficient organisation?????
117
If Ken wins (God forbids for the sake of my bet), I wanna see this youtube video of you eating a hat!
“The only way those swing-voters can access to Obama’s soul (in their perception) is by knowing who did he associate with?”
Untrue. How about listening to what he says, or is first person narrative seen as having no place in politics nowadays?
Failing that, he’s written books about his ideas. Not everybody will read them but they are there to be read.
Finally, there is a campaign about to happen for the presidency, how about they follow that?
Any country that votes on what others say about someone is deserving of all the useless leaders it gets.
111 - If that is being used as a smear attempt it suggests they can’t come up with much real to hit him with. I use my girlfriend’s car. It is just the same but Mrs McCain is a bit richer than my lovely other half.
Total non-story imho.
119 Philippe - IIRC that was Casino Royale eating his Trilby wasn’t it?
I rather get the impression that obama is in really dangerious territory at the moment.
Certain enough of the Nomination for the Reps to start attacking him.
Not certain enough for the Clintons to keep attacking him.
He’s going to have to fight on two fronts over the next 10 days.
Re: 118 - I’m sorry you feel that way, JohnF. I’m not as much of an “outsider” as you might think but I’ll say no more. Of course no one will admit publically but if you spend any time in an organisation you get a pretty good view of how it operates and where its strengths and weaknesses are.
I can only speak to what I know and what I see. I’m not saying there is no wastage generally in local Government but there is far less than is generally believed. What I know less about is central Government.
120
I agree with you: better read his books, and listen to what he says.
But as you know, people watch much more TV (fun!) than they read books (boring!).
So feeling about Obama’s soul is more important that thinking about his words, his marvelous words.
And the best way for a lot of people is to know who are his closed friends, who did he worked and prayed with. Maybe it’s wrong, and maybe I’m wrong about it.
Time will tell.
Yet my gut tell me that we will hear a lot more about Ayers, Wright and Rezko.
125
… my gut and conservative blogs… and the Clinton campaign…
122– Oups, you’re right. I’ll blame it on the sunburn I got today!
126 - Because that’s what you want to happen, the false impartiality doesn’t wash so why not admit it?
101
How is it doing Malcom?
I’m sure you’ll understand that since Obama was not exactly a household name before the Iowa Caucus and the fantastic speech he gave after losing the N.H. primary — it is fair to assess that a lot of the swing voters — Reagan Democrats and centrist Independant wanna know who Obama worked and prayed with.
I mean: he worked only 3 years in the Senate before launching a very well-run Presidential campaign. People cannot exactly look at his CV to get a picture of where is he really standing.
The only way those swing-voters can access to Obama’s soul (in their perception) is by knowing who did he associate with?
Did he actually worked with Ayers?
Was not his wife proud of America before Iowa?
Does he actually share Wright’s point of view that the US government is as terroristic as A-Qaeda?
MY POINT IS: I don’t judge if those issues are actually relevant to know where Obama actually stands on what really matters (like national security and a free economy) — I just say that for a lot of people it does matter. As a result, Obama’s candidacy might suffer a lot in the coming months. Especially under the GOP attack machine!!!
“Boris may be a star, but he lacks the X factor
Voters! This isn’t Britain’s Got Talent! It’s when we decide who’s emptying the bins and moving on the tramps for the next four years”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/caitlin_moran/article3817160.ece
I’ll go for Boris, only ‘cos I think he’ll be fun, fun, fun.
129
That’s a mistake; I had problem posting it; and here it rebounded.
Sorry guys.
130
Losad of tosh, the whole article is tosh. IMHO .Chung fringes my eye. Its like saying, we know Gordon’s sent the economy down the pan, but we know him and so we better stick with him.
I still think Boris will win, but its a lot closer than I thought originally. Remember polls are polls, everone thought Labour were going to win in 1992.. the polls said they would….
AH! I believe Lord Laidlaw has started a trust to help people with a, ’sex addiction’ I have applied for a grant, but am rather disturbed to find out that it was to help people with a, ’sex addiction’ I of course hoped to use the money to, feed a sex addiction’ Bloody Tories you can’t trust ‘em can you.
“Ken seeks pact with Lib Dem voters to beat Boris
By Jane Merrick
Sunday, 27 April 2008
Ken Livingstone today launches an extraordinary appeal to Liberal Democrat voters to help him to defeat Boris Johnson in the London mayoral election.
The Mayor is directly targeting supporters of Lib Dem candidate Brian Paddick with a “Lib Dems for Ken” manifesto. ”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ken-seeks-pact-with-lib-dem-voters-to-beat-boris-816219.html
My old man came back from being away this weekend to report his friend is travelling down to London on Thursday for one thing. To cast a vote.
For Boris!
In the London Mayoralty market, something is definitely afoot in the betting - it isn’t just Betfair where Boris’ odds are being pushed out, which with a herd instinct can sometimes happen. I see that IG Sports have both Ken and Boris exactly tieing on their 25-10-0 indices at 17 to sell and 18 to buy.
A VOTE FOR KEN
“Most damaging to Ken’s credentials as leader of a cosmopolitan city, he publicly embraced Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a religious zealot and apologist for suicide bombers.
Ken is not a fool nor a fundamentalist. But his stubborn refusal to admit mistakes carries a whiff of megalomania. For such a man to ask for a third term is a serious test of voters’ faith.
So is it time for a change? That would almost certainly mean electing Boris Johnson, the Tory candidate. It is hard to know how capably Mr Johnson would handle power since he has never run anything in his life. (Even as a magazine editor, he shirked managerial responsibility.) So voters can only judge him on what he has said in the campaign and what he has published during his journalistic career.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/27/london08.livingstone
137) Peter - what’s your guess as to what’s going on?
By the way Ken is backable at 2.25 widely if you wanted to set-up an arb.
rogerh “Comparisons are I assume with April 2004 polls.However as Locals in 2004 were in June therelevant comparioson is with May 2004″
Yes they were thanks for pointing out my error.
Here are comparisons for last polls in 04 Vs most recent in 08.
YouGov/Telegraph C +10 LAB -7 LD -4
MORI C +6 LAB -4 LD +1
ICM/Guardian C +6 LAB -3 LD -2
Populus/Times C+11 LAB -1 LD -3
A more mixed picture with a wider range of differences. Yougov less friendly to LDs. These set the pollsters up for their day of reckoning on Friday!
139. is there a hint of ramping on here tonite?
Heard Harriet Harperson on the radio this morning, doing an incredibly amount of sycophantic bootlicking. “We’re very lucky in this country to have not just one, but two world class leaders in one generation with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown”. I felt slightly nauseus and had to sit down, or that could have been the hangover.
139 PolCap - I think Mike has a point - the betting markets were slow to react to the two earlier polls over the past 48 hours, having decided that Boris was going to win come what may. It now seems to have woken up and one more respected poll in Ken’s favour is likely to make him favourite. I’ve just unwound my position on Boris with Spreadfair, but still stand to lose around £150 were Ken to win, unless, as you say, I were to arb now on him, before his price shrinks …. I’m thinking about it!
I’m just assumming that any polls in tommorrows papers would have leaked by now. IRN has just been on and they are leading with yesterdays ICM and petrol. The independent article is interesting. Remember hattie Harman won the deputy leadership because shes the only one that went after 2nd and 3rd preferences.
Quick Question: Anyone know when the 42 day detention vote is likely to take place and the likely result?
141 There’s no ramping as such, but there IS some movement on the betting markets.
Herald on Scottish Independence:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2229025.0.Scots_voters_swinging_behind_independence_claims_SNP.php
143
Only £150?
That surprised me; i thaught the average gambler here had about 2000, 3000 in play; and figured you as an average-size gambler on this site.
So it’s almost play-money then, is it not?
PfP and YS I’m personally going to sit tight, unpleasant as this is.
PfP - the big bookies are still open and standing up to some reasonable size - Lads are taking £500 online when I clicked through oddschecker - bestbetting is offline!
86. Why are we aving a competition solely on the London Mayoral election?Very Londoncentric!
Why not vote shares and seat changes for the Locals?
Because the local elections were included in the 2008 New Year competition. The London Mayoral copmpetition redresses the balance - although only partially because it doesn’t include predictions about the Assembly.
130 - Lifelong Labour voter says she’s going to vote Labour. Wow.
PfP and YS I’m personally going to sit tight, unpleasant as this is.
PfP - the big bookies are still open and standing up to some reasonable size - Lads are taking £500 online when I clicked through 0ddsch$cker - bestbetting is offline!
What’s Ken’s role in emptying the bins?
L@dbrokes have now suspended betting (on Ken only) I guess I shouldn’t have mentioned the “A word”
VIDEO:
OBAMA ON HIS ASSOCIATION WITH J. WRIGHT
–> a ‘legitimate issue’:
http://www.redlasso.com/ClipPlayer.aspx?id=dce36a13-af06-4335-96a8-0b4a73ed87b5
WOW! Ken begging Lib-Dems to save him. I guess thats an admission he’s lost this election on his own terms? Looks like his final throw of the dice, to me.
156) & hot on the heels of his Sian Berry Borough market walkabout…
New thread - Could Ken move into the favourite slot again?
153? irregularity? massive surge for one candidate?
148 Philippe - I don’t think you read my post very carefully. I said I STILL stood to lose around £150 on Ken AFTER unwinding my position with Spreadfair.
75 - made me laugh out loud.
148, Not at all Phillipe I suspect most regular punters here who make money are probably knocking out between 100-200 quid commitment a time and that may be over a series of bets on one event.
Sometimes its more, sometimes less