ComRes reports 14% Tory lead
April 28th, 2008
The only detail at the moment is from Andrew Grice’s blog at the paper. He writes: “If Gordon Brown was hoping that the row over his decision to abolish the 10p lower rate of income tax would not damage Labour, he’ll be very disappointed by the latest monthly ComRes survey for The Independent. The Tories have doubled their lead since last month from seven to 14 points, the biggest since ComRes began polling for the paper in September 2006.”
That’s the only information that’s available.
The last ComRes poll at the end of March had the Tories on 38%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems on 17%.
Mike Smithson
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Who is this Labour person on the Sky News debate? He is trying far too hard to defend Ken, it actually comes across as really annoying.
It’s amazing to watch people continue to blunder on in the face of such adversity. I think that, as a species, we are incredibly more obstinate than we give ourselves credit for. Such a vast capacity for self-delusion.
Crewe’s going to be worse than London, in many ways. Ken can be written off as a maverick, who said some silly things that lost him an election, but Crewe. It’ll be a sign of the end…
Its a simple as this. It looks like the Tories have a double digit lead in the country for real.
Interesting that stories are emerging fo Labour belief that they’ll lose 120-150 seats on Thursday but may send out the inflated expectation management figure of 200 so that if it is 150 it doesnt look so bad.
New ARSE developing ….
You go away for three weeks. Give up the computer as a promise to the family, you come back and find that Brown has become more unpopular than he was back in March. You also find that the 10p tax band cut hurt him hard. How long ago was it did we point out to Nick P that this would cause problems? Why did it take the labour party so long to discover this?
And Boris looks like he his going to win in London. Happy days!!!
3-I thought you meant lose 12-150 seats at the next GE!
Or even 120!!
3, I saw that on Five News (I was channel hopping and stopped as I saw the story).
If they lose more than a handful of seats it’ll be bad, because they’re starting from a pitifully low base.
sky debate looks like it will be fun gilligan in full flow about ken being ‘unfit for office’
New PPP …. Yes the “We Suck” Pollsters …. Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 39% .. Obama 51%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042808.pdf
[4] - With leads this big you might need two to contain them.
I don’t know if the Tories have a lead, but I do feel that the Labour vote is very demoralised. I was at a trade union meeting the other week and the consensus at the room was that they were very down on Labour policy but couldn’t really see themselves voting for another party so they were just going to stay home.
I can see that happening in the local elections. In my council, Thurrock I can see the BNP taking five seats in the council from Labour as last time out the gaps between the two parties in what should be safe Labour seats were actually very small. If Labour votes stay home, then the BNP could prosper.
Sky has made a mockery of the licence fee tax.
12,
If people do not vote they can hardly complain about the shower that then govern them.
Live Sky debate for those who don’t have it….
http://news.sky.com/skynews/livenewsevents
Well, if your going on cheers from the audience. Boris is walking it.
What are the LD’s scoring?
Ave it sensible early week opinion
———————————-
CON WORLDWIDE DOMINATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AVE ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!
15,
That does not take a lot!!
14 - We’re talking about majorities as little as 50 votes here.
Why do the debates always mention the canditates ages? - Surely this is against age discrimination laws.
Here we go! Boris sounding like he means business from the off.
I think they both see this as important.
Paddick just seems odd.
17 - Your obsession with the LDs is sweet - but the clue in the thread header is “That’s the only information that’s available.”
Paddick skewers Livingstone about his lying over the Olympics
14% lead would be the conservatives biggest ever with ComRes.
That was pretty cutting by Paddick to Ken, the debate style actually helps remarks like that as they are giving each candidate 20 seconds of retort time to the welcoming speeches.
Ken needs to put the fear of god into voters about Boris, I think he did some of that with his starting speech but there was too many statistics and figures.
13-This is a poll tax the BBC has no problem supporting. Or indeed for the left to ignore the “ability to pay/fairness” issue.
You know a candidate is done when the others start being nice to him.
Clearly this is a rogue poll. Labour just isnt getting it’s message across.
“The economy is in a very good state and immigration is making everyone rich. We have poured billions of pounds into many different places. There are no wars. Defence spending is up by 3d since 1997.”
We are fighting the Americans. We are beating the Americans. We are winning the Americans.
Where is this debate being held?
Very quick, confident putdown by Boris there, that’ll hurt Ken.
Boris starts off brilliantly. “i had no idea you would be so foolish as to seek a third term”
28. Trouble is, Labour’s scare tactics about their opponents just don’t wash anymore.
33. For those who can’t see it;
Ken: Why did you vote for extra powers for the Mayor?
Boris: (witheringly) I didn’t think you’d be so foolish as to seek a third term.
26 “14% lead would be the conservatives biggest ever with ComRes.”
Just what is needed for the locals and Mayoral elections.
May 1st will be a bloodbath - postal vote fraud aside.
35. They could always say Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock to split the anti Labour vote?
Boris seems as if he is full of confidence tonight, this is really helping him.
39. Unless he does a Nick Clegg / Neil Kinnock and gaffes!
Mike - can we maybe put some sort of SPAM filter on Martin Days posts that mention both Clegg and Kinnock - once the two words are mentioned in any other post by anyone else perhaps the filter could be temporarly lifted.
I must say the sky presentation makes the BBC look very average. a much more interactive and interesting debate.
35. it worked for Major in 92, it worked for Bush in 88. Scare tactics are one of the best tools in the incumbents box.
15 Hat-tip. Thsanks for the link.
Here it is again…http://news.sky.com/skynews/livenewsevents
OMG - Dale has just given the first round to Boris!
[5] - Mike L was onto it pretty much instantaneously. The Guardian also raised it as an issue. Nobody can say that they didn’t know about this last year - just admit that they were so excited at temporarily wrong-footing Cameron that they lost their senses.
Paddick is pretty rubbish. He sounds like John Major’s illegitimate.
Boris blowing smoke up paddick’s arse to isolate Livingstale.
Does Ken look gutted ?
45 Oh quel surprise wonder which candidate he supports
46 - Ming (and rest of the sensible people - i.e. LDs) - were on to it very quickly as well - it just takes a year for those pathetic people who get stunned in the headlight of grinning-blair-style politics.
Very good one from Ken there, weary and condescending to Boris. Echoes of Gore in ‘00 though. He was of course beaten by an inarticulate privileged outsider.
50 - yes, Cameron missed it. You’d have thought his shadow Chancellor might have passed him a slip of paper to prompt him. I presume Cable spotted it immediately, and passed a slip to Ming.
Good to see the Pakistani/Bangledeshi comunity defending Livingstale so loyally.
49 Mark, I believe “surprise” is feminine,not masculine.
Good to see that Welsh numismatics is not your only blindspot!
Are you Lib Dems huddling together for warmth whilst your bloke blows in the wind?
PS the Lib Dems were have longer to sit the exam on budget day.
52 - To be fair to Cameron - Whereas he had a few seconds the politcal commentry world had a year…Having said that I don’t remember Cameron being overly concerned about the policy 6 months ago…
rofl: All London needs to stop black kids from shooting each other is more youth clubs.
Livingstale getting beaten up by paddick.
Not a winner.
57 did someone say that?
This is very much an attack Ken debate, he is taking the majority of the attacks and he is looking very remorseful, it almost looks as if he thinks it’s over.
95 Nope but all you Tories seem to be looking at the debate through blue tinted glasses
59. It was more or less what Ken just said. He knows its rot.
60. Yes he looks almost sad.
I wonder if anyone genuinely unbiased, like Mike, is watching this?
61 Everyone is waiting for your gems of enlightenment.
Mark. Are you saying Paddick is doing well?
Quick reply to Frank Booth a coupla threads back - no, I don’t personally think people should get to vote in two places. The argument is ‘no taxation without representation’, though - if you pay council tax somewhere, shouldn’t you have a say in how it’s spent?
I don’t feel strongly enough to boycott the system though.
He never misses an opportunity to fail to impress!
65 I’m not watching it Corrie is more interesting lol
Ken is doing as I said last time. He’s losing with grace. I’m impressed.
But Paddick attacking the stop and search of black youths really plays into the hands of the far right. How many of the murders of young black men were committed by young black men? Nearly all of them. There’s a reason to search people. The police get an unfair kicking far too often and particularly by ex-cop Brian ‘Brixton is lovely’ Paddick.
Paddick isn’t doing well but better than QT last Thursday (he could hardly be worse). At least he has stopped randomly butting in, though that could be because the Sky event is better generally than the BBC’s effort.
WATCHING THE DEBATE?
– PLEASE TELL
..if Boris is bringing up anything relating to this ES paper about Ken’s ‘dirty tricks’: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23480845-details/Pro-Ken+Muslim+group+claims+Boris+%27would+scrap+the+Koran%27/article.do
67. “He never misses an opportunity to fail to impress!”
Shouldn’t you attribute that?
Nick, but surely the taxpayer is paying taxes for at least one of your houses
66. Nick, could you help me with something. I have a friend moving to Nottingham around the university area, what would be their constituency?
To be fair to Gaz - this youth club/young crime theory has almost become an unspoken urban truth. It’s just silly - why bother tackling the underlying issues when you can just build a few youth clubs.(!)?
Good to see bloggers doing the offline commentary rather than has been politicians. They are more direct and punchy.
re 63. Sally - Sadly not. You can’t get Sky news on Virgin media and I’ve had problems with the streaming video.
72 Yes. Credit where credit is due…The Times on Brian.
72 Yes. Credit where credit is due…The Times on Brian.
66 In other words as long as there is an advantage for Labour, its ok.
Hilton was agreeing with Ken that because people have nothing to do they are justified in stabbing other people.
Excellent defence of multiculturalism by Ken.
61 The only glasses I will be looking through on Friday are beer glasses as I celebrate winning our bet on the tories gaining more than 120 seats in the local elections.
It won’t stop you being wrong on your polling interpretations, it won’t stop you being a sour old trot in need of some chill-out therapy but it will give Helen House a few quid to do something useful with.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/article.asp?id=26153 - You can listen to the debate live here.
69 Yes, Truth can be a sticky one.
What to do? Tell truth or lie. Tough one that.
66 - they don’t really pay taxes in two places though do they? - They council tax exemptions for second homes are massive and up to 100%
61: Paddick is odd and would be whatever the party.
76 - they’re acting as creatures of the night on televisual format!
ps- ken did good on multi-culturalism
Paddick now being laughed at
81 yes. Ken going for the Pakistani / Bangladeshi bloc.
76
where is the blog link?
That Paddick comment about uniting London was hillarious.
Adam Boulton is doing a very strict job as a debate leader. He is keeping it very much on topic.
Ken is talking as if Boris is going to win.
83
Thank you very much!
Boris is pretty good, the audience clearly like him, and I can’t blame them. He’s also looking more Mayoral by the day.
Paddick is getting laughed at. As in the BBC debate, he brought up the allegations of racism against Boris and anti-Semitism against Ken, so he could claim he’s the only candidate untainted by such perceptions - pretty underhand tactics, IMO.
91 After a brilliant 60yd dash, he droppped the ball.
Boris being uncharactistally mean on the old age bus question.
Good question by Boulton here, “are any of you going to save money?”
82 I think it will be touch and go but you may end up just a few gains short of 120 .
it actually has to be one of the better debates. Boris actually a bit like his normal witty self. Ken looks a little resigned I have to say, but he does get some points in. Paddick seems determined to take on Ken so he is getting pincered.
89. Nothing wrong with that.
Plus not everyone who thinks that a pluralist society is the way forward is an ethnic minority.
74. Which uni. Trent or Nottingham?
This is pretty good. Better than QT .Through my light blue specks Boris is good. His seriousness is less forced. He is funnier without being flippant. Bags of energy, keen to speak and no bumbling.
Paddick is less awful than last time. He and Boris are being nicer to each other and its helping both. Or rather Boris is being nicer to Paddick and he clearly likes it.
102. Nottingham
73: The taxpayer pays the rent and some of the expenses of having a London flat, but I top it up, so you can make a case either way. But I’m not really defending the system, any more than I defend FPTP. One can play by the rules and still disagree with them. Not worth our time debating it - if Boris is only one vote ahead he’s in trouble!
74: Depends! If your friend is at Nottingham University then
(s)he’ll probably be living either in Lenton (safe Labour, Alan Simpson retiring) or Beeston (Broxtowe!). If your friend votes Labour, say how wonderful Beeston is… Nottingham Trent Uni is a long way off, partly in the centre and partly in Clifton (Ken Clarke).
I hope that Boris does make use of Ken’s London knowledge in the next four years. It would be a waste not to.
I never thought I’d write anything as pro-Ken as that!
Adam Boulton would improve the BBC coverage.
101 Hitler went for the Blond bloc. Didnt work though. Not enough blonds you see.
As a non-london neutral - I must say Boris is doing much better than in previous debates, though.
And yes - Boulton is good (as is A Neil - one of the few things the bbc (aka poll tax) has going for it)
101
Multiculti theory will soon be a thing of the past… once the Right will be finished taking all over Europe…
Boris came across as coached by Toy minders at the start of the QT debate (endless references to “the Labour Mayor” etc) but once he ditched all that and became himself he was far better.
He is continuing this tonight and is trumping the other two.
85: Most councils nowadays only give you 10% off for a second home - certainly Westminster does. About the only Westminster Council policy I agree with (I think there should be no discount at all, and possibly a surcharge).
Hilton just said Ken was drunk when he made concentration guard comment. Good one Hilton, what a tw*t.
It’s very telling that its taken a year for the Tories to criticise the 10p tax scrapping. Whereas that sharp Owl Ming was onto it straight away. When you also consider his defence of parents who lie in order to get their kids into the best schools, it’s clear the audience he’s speaking to. The selfish middle class. It’s a strategy that might work, but it’ll depend on gaining support from some of the traditional working class that are not generally taken with the Old-Etonian charm.
The most memorable thing I remember Cameron saying was last when asked about inequality, he said ‘I think what people are concerned about is the gap between those at the bottom and those in the middle.’ Forget speeches, soundbites, election broadcasts, it’s responses to tough questions that reveal the true character. Cameron will be a friend of the very rich.
I bet Iain Blair is watching this debate with trepidation. He is a goner. Boris should offer Paddick a job
99. Sean Fear is predicting about 200 Tory gains. A battle royal, like MORI/Yougov
105 - “Not worth our time debating it” - Quite, what is the point of debating tax and democratic election policies?(!!)
Yes. Boulton comes out a winner too. A commercial broadcaster smacks the bottom of the national broadcaster again.
103. I feel rather sorry for Paddick actually - he seems to me like a fairly decent guy, who’s just been completely squeezed out in an election that’s all about the two big personalities. This election has become polarised about Ken vs Boris, and the fact that Paddick has refused to side with one or the other has stopped him from attracting much interest.
99 well, even if you win I’ll be happy to have pinned you down to accepting the tories will make significant progress, whichever way the LD machine spins it (the old ‘if you exclude all the areas we did badly in we actually did rather well’ line from last year might reappear)
95 Agreed. I have never seen Boris as animated. Fighting fit form, standing his ground, tackling lies and distractions where he finds them and keeping the humour.
I was starting to give Paddick some credence until he blew it.
Good one liner about Boris’s bike helmet from Ken. Got a lot of applause.
I WANT TO VOTE FOR BORIS!!!!!!
118 - What stopped him attracting any interest is that he really isn’t interesting. In fact I have found him at times to be quite nasty.
111 - Are you sure about that? - I doubt that westminster is going to be representative.
111 - I have heard of 100% second home tax exemptions and like most sneeky keep the rich richer policies it’s hard to examine.
Barack Obama’s Muslim Childhood
by Daniel Pipes
http://www.danielpipes.org/pubarticle.php?id=527
—–
That is bad timing for Obama…
So not surprisingly, all the Tories on here think Boris is doing well.
Marc Ambinder reports that superdelegate Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico has endorsed Obama :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/in_bingaman_obama_bags_a_senat.php
111 - Out of interest - Do you know what the second home council tax exemption is in Nottingham?
113 garbage from beginning to end; what is the point of making such a post? it adds nothing to betting, the subject of the thread or even boosting your own team’s morale.
I prefer it when you make a prediction, explain it and then explain why you’re sticking to it despite the vicissitudes of the news agenda.
You think Ken’s going to edge it - an update to this would be more useful and interesting than silly posts about how the evil tories will set fire to your baby before stealing all your possessions.
109 You could be right. Hitler had to take over Germany with 33%of the vote. The remaining countries needed to be taken by war.
In a unified European State, control need only be taken once.
127 - about as surprising as Phillippe banging on about Islam.
105. Are you sure Nottingham South is safe Labour with Alan Simpson going Nick. I wouldn’t be so sure!!
A good debate, Ken had some good one liners, but Boris did really well and impressed me. Paddick did ok, but he is a little fish caught in between two very large sharks.
I wonder what debate you people are watching.
The only comments of substance have come from Ken.
So Tories are turning up only twice a month for their £50 grand. And who was the Tory who voted against a community project but the voted for a pay rise? The Evening Substandard is silent.
All aboard Boris’s gravy train.
“Scare tactics are one of the best tools in the incumbents box.”
Vile, absolutely vile.
105. It’ll be one for you Nick, if Beeston.
127 So surprisingly, all the Lefties on here are quiet.
Full marks to Boulton. This was not an exercise in him preening and demonstrating his ‘Paxman’ muscles. He got a feel of what the audience wanted to know and made the candidates stick to the issues without interupting the flow and sapping the energy and feel of a public meeting.
136. Yep. True though.
126 - And just for good measure to attack the disgusting far right as much as the authoritarian left.
“Barack Obama’s Muslim Childhood”
Vile. Absolutely vile.
Put both in a box and let them kill each other, that’s my platform.
(BTW, nobody seems to know the French for ‘One Trick Pony’, anyone?)
113. Sorry Frank your wrong. Here’s the initial press release from the Conservatives pointing out it was a Tax con that penalised the lower paid. The date March 21st 2007.
http://www.conservatives.com/pdf/taxconnottaxcut.pdf
135. The moment the debate ends a poster who-has-never-been-heard-of- before fetches up on here, and makes dreary and witless remarks hugely in favour of one candidate.
“Derek” my imperial Cornish ARSE.
Bog off, turfboy.
I’ve never heard Recess Monkey monkey speak before. I can’t say I’m impressed.
135 - That is the problem of the GLA system. The Assembly has no power. If they turned up more often they would just be sat in offices playing solitaire.
115 My 120 is England only
144:
Oops, forgive my stammer.
140 - In your fetid excuse for a mind maybe.
Some of us prefer to be human.
Ken’s delivery has been very weak. He has lost conviction, passion and most importantly confidence.
66
I’m sure you don’t Nick, but I bet you’d think otherwise and say otherwise if Labour had a 14% lead. Magnificent duplicity…
130 - You’re being silly. 113 is an excellent post. To put those kind of limits on posts would mean that 99% of them would have to disappear.
Who is the Asian blogger commentator?
148. Get off your high horse. I wasn’t saying they were the “right” thing to do. I didn’t condone them or say they would swing my vote. I simply said that they had worked in the past.
148. Get off your high horse. I wasn’t saying they were the “right” thing to do. I didn’t condone them or say they would swing my vote. I simply said that they had worked in the past.
Derek
‘All aboard BORIS’S gravy train’. Where on earth have you been?…
141
Vile? Yes!
Effective? Maybe! — maybe the GOP will try it first on focus group…
anyone else seeing Hilton getting done over on the Sky Extra programme. It is absolutely great to watch!
142 - dated 31st march - so you’re saying that the con opposition disagreed with the government budget at around budget time. wow. They said nothing since until they thought it might have some opportunistic electioneering advantage (because they in all likehood agreed with it).
152 - I believe it is Hilton/Recess Monkey
Hilton is an odious little man.
113- agreed Frank Booth- what the hell do Cameron and Osborne, bip and bop, care about the poor, disadvantaged, and marginalised. They are upper class toff tories on an ego trip.
154 - If I had the money I’d set up an organisation purely to hound any politician who attempts to launch negative attacks on others instead of creating positive policy. Digging into their private and public lives and trussing them up like a chicken.
Of course this is purely as a response, it would be their call if they wanted that sort of treatment. The one thing that the type who do this don’t like is having their own tactics turned against them.
And frankly, if nobody takes a moral position you are all scrabbling around in the gutter.
137: In that case, let me stress that Beeston is the pearl of the universe…
150: er, what? I don’t usually have trouble following you, MTF, but I can’t understand what the lead has to do with whether people should be able to vote in a second home as in post 66? Or do you mean FPTP? I’ve been against that consistently all my life, in good Labour times and bad. It’s simply unfair.
155
On Ken’s gravy train?
155
On Ken’s gravy train?
143. The fact that your ARSE is both imperial and Cornish was a revelation I hadn’t banked on, but thanks for the information anyway.
I don’t know what a turfboy is.
What I can say for certain is that I’m not a member of a political party, I’m not part of anything related to Ken’s campaign.
I am, however, a lurker on the site and a very rare poster.
As you can see I haven’t chosen to bog off.
162. I hate scare tactics, i think they are disgusting. The best way we can destroy them is by not voting for people who use them. But not everyone thinks the same, think of Clinton’s 3AM and Bush’s Wille Horton ad, they worked. Which is why I support Obama because he doesn’t use them, he uses a positive message and does so successfully.
Anthony Wells has ComRes numbers;
Con 40% Lab 26% Lib 20%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
161: There is a long tradition of upper class toffs doing things for the poor.
163 - “it’s simply unfair” - But not worth debating?
That was by a mile the best Debate that Boris has been involved in.
He sounded assured abd confident.
Paddick on the other hand might as well get his coat now.
Ken was his usual self.
We have just had some lib dem lit through the door.All it does is attack Boris.Not one mention of Ken
That tells you the real Lib Dem thought process…
152 “Who is the Asian blogger commentator?”
Alex Hilton from Labourhome. A Labour clone.
The conservative bloggers come across as calm, rational and reasonable.
Leftie Hilton comes across as rabid, flakey & half baked.
Nottingham 2nd home discount is 10%. I think you used to be right, but a few years ago the Government allowed councils to lower the discount to 10%, and the vast majority said aha, more revenue, yummy.
Signing off for a while - real work calls…
Obama in North Carolina
Come on boy, do not screw this one!:
NC lead last week: 25 points;
NC lead now: 12 points
Tendency: he is going down down down…
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/04/nc_poll_obamas_lead_cut.html
At this rate, how long before Labour are overtaken by Cleggover&co?
168 Martin Day will be upset Cleggy rising in the polls .
156. So Phillippe, in the whole wide United States, is there absolutely no blog, newspaper or TV channel saying anything remotely negative about Clinton or McCain?
169- well Ralphie- we will all see soon enough, whether bip and bop, Dave and George, really do care about making everyone’s lives better, or whether they are just a couple of Toryboy toffs out for a wheeze.
Soon they will be PM and chancellor
130 (Mr. Bongo)- Give Mr. Booth (113) his due. He has nicely illustrated that there is a class of Labour voter not interested in seeing to it that all can enjoy a respectable lifestyle (i.e., concerned with “the gap between those at the bottom and those in the middle”) but are instead obsessed with the fact that some people are rich (undeservedly, no doubt). This mentality that fixates on punishing the wealthy for their sins is what has always given socialism its dangerous edge, not to mention its ineffectiveness in achieving social progress, and has led to its widespread rejection.
176. Yes, Lib-Dems are coming back up. I suppose some of that may be because there is a national election going on and the Libs are getting more attanetion than normal, but Clegg does seem to be have some polling sucess now.
How long before we see Labour behind the Libs in a national poll? ;
175 Cleggover moving on the immigration issue. Perhaps he has finally smelt the coffee.
Re the Comms Research Poll, if correct how will Rentoul explain this?
Get those bets on for Crewe and Nantwich before the Conservative and Liberal Democrat prices harden.
174 - This is one poll. It may be an outlier. It is likely that PPP were overstating the Obama lead to start off with. Anyway until we have more polls it is premature to talk about definite and inevitable movement.
167
Really? : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WynLgJFBxSs
173 - Thanks for getting back to me on that (especially as it is hardly worth debating…)
176- Mark Senior- I think that Cleggover is the real deal by the way.
Shame about the bunch of spinach eating, sandal wearing, jostick burning, beardy wierdy, unruly mob that he leads.
172: ‘152 “Who is the Asian blogger commentator?”
Alex Hilton from Labourhome. A Labour clone.’
He’s not Asian is he? I thought he was Jewish.
Anthony Wells has just added this little piece to his ComRes blog.
Make sure you are sitting down little Lib Dems…
UPDATE: Just a thought, that’s only a six point gap between Labour and the Lib Dems. If the Lib Dems moved to second place it would be a huge boost for them and their image as real contender. Lib Dems winning here and all that. Still - just an idle thought, it’s a long way away yet.
177
Here you go : http://www.dailykos.com/
They also divinize Obama:
“Obama was born with his sun in Leo, and his story exemplifies the quest of the Solar Hero. His father, who joins with his mother on an island, conceives a child, and soon thereafter leaves the child and mother to continue his own journeying. Obama, a ’special ‘child, left to create his own internal image of ‘father’, and related meanings of strength, protection, leadership, etc.”
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/26/83118/7371/654/503796
now Hilton and Dale getting very catty! looks like dale wanted to knock hilton out. this is better than anything i have seen
168. Ouch. 26% Labour?!! Lawks amercy.
I remember recent speculation, on here, to the effect that Labour’s core vote may now be as low as 25%.
We may have to REspeculate.
22%? 20%? Anyone go any lower than 20%? What am I bid for… 15%?
Heh.
118. Trust me Paddick is not a nice person from what I’ve seen. I spent a day with him and he was thoroughly obnoxious, haughty, hectoring, downright nasty, and a long, long, way up his own posterior. As far as I could judge no-one in the force liked him.
Paris Hilton & Miss piggy banging on about gay marriage.
Opposing gay marriage is not homophobic. Marriage is designed for men and women to give children a stable upbringing.
167 - There may be a time that fire needs to be fought with fire, a sort of nuclear deterrent of campaigning with Mutually Assured Destruction of both candidates as the result.
174 - What price will you offer me on Obama winning the nomination? Sounds as though you’ll give me 2/1, I’ll have £50 on if you are prepared to do that. If not then what are your odds?
179 - this kind of post (i.e yours - not 113), happens very frequently. From now on I am only goint to repsond with-
”
Laffer-Curve-Tastic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
“
187 watching it on the internet. Hilton is indeed odious.
186 LOL the people you describe are in the old Liberal party .
177 - Part II
Why do you ask?
A couple more points;
In ComRes’s April 2007 poll (again during a national election campaign) the Lib-Dems polled 22%. Looking at it that way, Clegg is doing WORSE than Ming.
The other point is that 26% is the lowest Labour has ever polled with ComRes.
199 Rory Bremner now on, should be fun…
Ken is going to need your vote Nick. Difficult to see how the Tories can be double digit ahead nationally and be behind in London -according to some pollsters anyway.
178: I can’t tell for Cameron and Osbourne but IDS does seem to honestly want to sort things out for them.
174- ukPaul- I think you have to be competitive with BF on this, and Obama is still 5-1 on.
I’ll go 100 notes if Philippe is prepared to go 2-1, and then ofset any possible losses on BF.
199 The election effect this year will be a bit less than last year as there were much more widespread elections last year .
187 Initially I thought he was Asian, more specifically Pakistani rather than Indian or Bangladeshi or from Ceylon. He just reminded me of someone I worked with in Burger King.
199 Good point.
Another good point!
184
You’re probably right. Really.
I’m just really disconcerted about all this non-sense Wright is spreading about Obama, races, the US government being like Al-Q — that I feel something very weird is going on — and that it’s not good for Obama.
seems they got rid of hilton. Amateur.
20% for the LDs? Seems the highest they’ve been for a while.
196-Didn’t Hilton, aka Recess Monkey, have a “joke” a few months ago about Maggie dying?
193-I hope Ian Dale is not suggesting that anyone who doesn’t see homosexuality as “normal” is homophobic?
205 - I think he is a bit asian - nowt wrong with being a bit something - i’m mixed race myself.
178 - Tyson, are you really suggesting that just because Cameron went to Eton and Oxford he can’t care about the poor?
199. Go on Mark. Keep going. Nearly out of that whole GIN has dug for you.
203 - Just wondering if I can capitalise on someone who is way off beam or, failing that, calling them on what they really think.
Hilton is an odious creep. Just like every other delusional leftie
198.
Because I never you see you post anything that is negative on Clinton or McCain.
Do you dislike Obama, or are you trying to give the rest of us the impression that he is a poorer bet than he really is?
191. Yes, Labours vote is collapsing. I think they are now at the point of no return.
204. There may be fewer places voting, but Lib-Dem coverage on TV is comparable to last year.
209 I wouldnt worry about it. We neednt agree on everything.
“I dont agree with your lifestyle choice but then again, I dont care, its not my business.”
Sometimes, Nick (163), you are very sound. You are clearly wasted in the Labour Party……
Do you think they truly appreciate you - even half as much as you deserve?
214 “Hilton is an odious creep. Just like every other delusional leftie”
I wonder if we know Hilton here. A rabid Leftie clone incapable of judgment…
204 May have been geographically more widespread last but no elections in London in 2007. Metropolitan areas are identical to last year and substantial number of district councils holding elections in both years.
211 - it is much more harder for a priveledged person to really care about the poor - how would they know where to start? For evidence that they actually cared they’d have to make a concerted effort by doing things that actually count for the poor (e.g. joining the Lib Dems) as opposed to doing things that specifically undermine the poor (e.g. joining the tories)
199. For the first time since the 1980s I don’t think it wholly impossible that Labour could actually disappear, and indeed be replaced by the Lib Dems.
It’s still pretty unlikely, but not wholly impossible.
I mean: WTF are Labour for? Are they for liberty - then why ID cards? Are they meant to help the poor? Then why abolish 10p tax rates? Are they for clean politics? Why cash-for-peerages?
Do they represent the working classes? Then why mass immigration, repressing low-skilled wages? Maybe they are the capitalist party? But then, why bail out Northern Rock?
Are they the europhile party? But why didn’t they join the euro? Maybe they are the democratic party. In which case, why didn’t they give us the referendum they promised on Europe? Perhaps they are the British party - yet they promoted Devolution. Could be they are the pacifist internationalist party - er, hold on, no, they invaded Iraq illegally and killed half a million.
Ah, I know, they believe in racial equality. Whoops, wait a minute - “British jobs for British workers”. Who said that?
Labour are a nothing party. They believe, literally, in nothing but their own careers. They are a busload of ugly, self-serving, slimy-faced shysters, they are a dish of cold sick in the canteen of Hell. They are moral bacteria.
Enough. We need a new lefty opposition. Time to give the Lib Dems a go, while the rightwing gets on with government.
Great minds must think alike - I tried to feed 40/26/20 into Baxter’s election map and the server was busy.
We have another story backing Boris (Nick Ferrari of LBC) tomorrow. I’ve not read it yet but it backs up the general pro-Boris feel.
211. An empty post.
221 - “…doing things that specifically undermine the poor (e.g. joining the tories)”
Which of the Conservatives’ policies do you have in mind? I can’t think of a single one that ‘undermines the poor’.
163 let me clarify Nick, You said. and I quote” Ib don’t feel strongly enough to boycott the system though.” meaning (one assumes) you could vote in two places if Broxtowe had elections as well. What I meant was that you might well have taken a holier than thou attitude if Labour had been 14% in the lead and not voted….
Right now Ken needs your vote…
SORRY 221 NOT 211
211- of course not, I am not so blinkered
My thinking is much more sophisticated, and as follows
my equation is eton + toff + toryboy= selfish, rightwing, greedy tory
Ah yes- all applies to Cameron.
Worse… Osborne
westminster + toff + toryboy + charmless smug chinless wonder
=orrible, obnoxious Tory
You see JohnKellet there is much more to me than a one dimensional class warrior. I am very analytical.
The Tory lead in now over half the Labour vote.
222 Labour is in the business of Power for Power’s sake.
222. Don’t think it would happen, except under one scenario: Brown is forced to step down and some well thought of caretaker like Jack Straw comes in. The GE is held within a honeymoon bounce and Labour just about manage to hang on. They would be massacred in four years time - no doubt the Lib Dems would overtake them.
Doubt it would happen though.
Oh, come on Tyson…. You MUST like spinach….
The only people who don’t like spinach are Tories…..
I wonder what ave it has to say on the debate tonight. my view is that boris breezed it and is home and dry for thursday. CON gain everything!
194
My post was about his victory on NC.
Let me think about your offer.
I have now £2500 on paddypower at an average of 4.8/1 that Obama/McCain are the nominees of their respective party.
But I have also a lot of Intrade contracts averaging 14.3 that Clinton is the nominee.
And on betfair, I have +2500CAD$ for Clinton; -185 for Obama to get it.
My plan is to sell with a profit Clinton’s stock after she wins Indiana, WV, Oregon and K. (or at around 30).
And to keep around a green position of around 2100CAD on Clinton on betfair to cover my bet (on paddypower) on Obama grasping it — in case she just convinces the Super-del that Obama cannot beat Mac.
So I don’t know now what odds I can offer you.
I’ll get back to you, no doubt. Thanks for the offer!
211. I think it’s the fact he became a Tory under Thatcher and had a senior job in the private sector not just his background.
i think he cares more than the average Tory about the poor, i get the impression he cares more than Osborne does. But we won’t know till we see his record in government.
225. Sally any chance you could try to be a little less rude?! I see where you are coming from but you’re a bit, erm, contemptuous in your dismissal of him there.
As it now looks like a bloodbath on Thursday, and assuming Boris does it, the whole political landscape in this country will change. Expect a very nasty backlash from Labour which will include all sorts of tactics we’ve not seen in a while: full-on class issues being one of them; electoral reform another. I also expect the anger beneath the surface to erupt into open internecine warfare.
216 But not on the ground it isn’t .
Electoral Calculus shows 40/26/20 as
User-defined Prediction
The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
National Prediction: CON majority 62
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 40.00% 356
LAB 36.21% 347 26.00% 210
LIB 22.65% 66 20.00% 53
Show
prediction
map
222 – A sublime post.
I really must read one of your books, when is Tom Knox likely to be on the shelf?
221-Luckily Roger proves that you can be privileged and care about the poor.
226 - given the similarity between current govnmt policy and the con policy I sympathise with you being unable to specifically think of any specific con policy that undermines the poor. Why don’t you just take the idea of “undermining the poor” and work from there. (we can ignore the fact the tories having never done anything for the poor as an implication of future aspirations for know)
(for now)
226 As someone from a council estate, it was the Conservatives that gave me dad the right to buy and gave me a free university education.
I cant imagine how it is to grow up on a council estate today. If you dont get shot or stabbed you need 40,000 pounds to get into university. What is that all about?
Labour are in a unique position because of the events of the 80’s. The collpase of the trade union movement. The collapse of communism. the collaspe of the class war, all mean that Labour’s central reason for being has gone. Blair knew this and thats why he turned Labour into more a Christian Demorcrat party, but at their heart, most of the things Labour believed in its conception, are no longer relevent.
Labour could end up a 20th century fad, with the Liberals coming back to reclaim the ground they lost in the 1920’s. Tony Blair may go down as the David Lloyd George of the Labour Party.
241 - quality!
Just dropping by to suggest people should probably back Clinton in the Indiana race. Reverend Wright will have ignited the news cycle about him, which won’t go down well in the Hoosier state.
244 - Err, to take one specific point from your pathetic post - if you grew up in a council estate today you most likely would not have to pay a penny to get into university.
229 - Since you’re into sums, how about these two:
westminster + toff + toryboy + charmless smug chinless wonder = Clegg
eton + toff + toryboy = Gladstone
244 - That is absolute BS. I’m not in favour of fees but the current system widens access, rather than narrows it. Universities have to spend a lot of their fee income on bursaries to help poor students. You don’t have to pay fees up front and while you have debt at the end the interest rate is very low, you only have to start paying it back if you earn over 15k a year and if it isn’t paid off in 25 yrs it is written off.
241 Yeah but Roger believes the poor should be helped with other peoples money.
237-I think Labour will pick a leaf out of Bill&Hillary’s Big Book of Dirty Politicking. And like those august two, for them to become unstuck in pretty quick time.
I would expect, in a short time, a raft of policies aimed at the “base”, except the “base” has of course long gone the way of the dodo. And almost concurrently a new, more dangerous, bout of internecine warfare.
Next Sunday papers to include any of:
-Ken: “I blame Gordon for my defeat”
-Charles Clarke/David Blunkett/John Reid/another: time for Gordon to move along
-a Blairite: “Tony never thought Gordon could do it” (well, at least a second Blairite coming out of the woodwork)
What odds LDs above Labour in a resepcted poll by the end of May/June/summer…
248 What is your pathetic question? I dont understand you.
Rephrase and I shall try to answer.
247
Can’t agree more.
I’ve posted the same thing today.
But wait a bit — the odds are very low now,
Last tuesday, I’ve got a lot of money matech at 1.95
Now, it is aroud 1.5…
Maybe wait for a little Clinton blunder, or a rogue poll
234 - my view is that its TOTAL WIPEOUT for Labour and LDs.
PS well done WBA
250
“In 2000, 18 per cent of young people from skilled manual or unskilled backgrounds went to university. While this was up 8 percentage points from 1990, the increase for young people from professional and non-manual backgrounds was 11 percentage points (from 37 per cent to 48 per cent), meaning that the gap between the higher and lower social classes has grown.”
http://ioewebserver.ioe.ac.uk/ioe/cms/get.asp?cid=1397&1397_1=18010
I polled 4 cab drivers today in London - during a very busy day between meetings in the west end and the city . All 4 will vote for Boris - all will definitely vote and one of them assured me that he did not know of any cab drivers who would vote for anyone but Boris . They all got a good tip……… oh !!!
SeanT.
In the light of one of your recent posts about the left leaving going to Sweden with their Guardians under their arms…and leaving us to our Conservative country, I thought you might like to know that left wing journalist Steve Richards thinks it just might happen:
But Brown and Labour are swimming against the tide. In this mid-term frenzy, possibly for much longer, England is reverting to type and becoming a Conservative country once more.
HURRAH!
251-
Funny, but true!
244 What is the Conservative position today on tuition fees ?
255 . lol Ipswich up next season?
195- Such hyphenated abominations are an unpardonable affront the the Queen’s English! But perhaps if the supreme authority of all human knowledge, the Great Wikipedia, legitimizes it, I’ll change my opinion…
174. Phillipe, that lead is bigger than other NC polls published at the same time that show the position holding steady round about 10-15%. All it really says is that Obama appears to be comfortably ahead and will gain more precious delegates. Again you pick what you whant to, keep it in balance, otherwise you might lose some money - in the present economic climate that is no good for anyone, except the bookmaker.
OT - Ouch Derby’s goal difference is at minus 63. Has there ever been a more embarassing side in the top flight?
before anyone asks why i was in a very expensive ( but rechargeable ) and polluting cab the answer is simple the mobile does not work on the tube and a bus is stuck in the same congestion as the cab and my knowledge of bus routes is just not up to scratch - but i do use them where i am confident of the route
250 Labour’s higher education policy is a disaster all round. Employers don’t want graduates with cooking degrees or football degrees or god forbid PR/statistics type degrees. They want people who can meet the business needs of the country. Students don’t want to be sadled with a misery inducing debt mountain round their necks for half of their lives and even worse the baseline to earn a decent wage is now a masters degree which means even more debt. So the sum of this is lots of miserable young people and lots of unhappy employers. Brilliant!!
256 - Ok - the gap is a problem - I personnally feel that forcing the clever poor people to go to university would not be the worst idea in the world. But the current system of not paying up front and until you get to a good wage is a perfectly fair and just system.
245. Yes, very interesting. I really don’t see the core lefty vote, in England/Wales, being big enough to support two parties (in Scotland there are three such parties).
There will always be room for a rightwing British party - patriotic, eurosceptic, capitalist, freedom-loving, etc - and the Tories have got that territory well covered. All their rivals - the BNP, UKIP, etc - have faded or fissured.
By contrast, the centre, centre-left is positively overcrowded with viable candidates - with Labour increasingly pincered by the SNP in Scotland, and the Lib Dems in the South. Then there’s Plaid in Wales and the Greens in the leafier burbs. Tricky.
The one thing that keeps Labour going, as a party of government - given that they are bereft of morals, and devoid of ideology - is the union money, and the sense of historical inevitability: that they are the only electable leftwing party.
For this reason I think Labour will never vote through electoral reform. If they do this they will be letting the Lib Dems near to serious power, and thereby signing their own psephological death warrant.
250, Kieran, let me start by saying your posts are those I try to avoid reading.
Even if widened access was a desirable goal, it has not widened access.
Under Conservatives, anyone could attend university if smart enough. Money wasnt a requirement.
Under Labour, anyone could attend university if cash rich enough . Brains isnt a requirement.
Labour actually favoured the stupid-rich over poor-intellegent.
245 - This is an over-reaction. Labour have been in worse positions (1992 for example where people suggested Labour were unelectable). While FPTP remains in place the Lib Dems will have a very tough job unseating Labour.
Seant - You are right that Labour have been hollowed out ideologically. That is what government does to you to a certain extent. You keep compromising and strategising so you don’t realise where you have ended up. The New Labour project was about silencing the left of the party and it has been very successful. That has meant the soul has been damaged. The idealists who joined the party and kept it going are more likely to join a single issue campaign. The flip-side of that is less internecine warfare. The party is far more united than it has been before.
What are it’s underlying principles? A commitment to social justice and the creation of a fairer society and world. Did the 10p tax violate that? Yes it did. But the opposition it provoked within the Labour Party demonstrated that the concern is still deep. But overall this government has a very good record on social justice. Policies like the minimum wage and tax credits, for all their flaws, have lifted hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty.
The party is going through a rocky patch, and the government has made serious misjudgements on some issues. I fully expect Labour to lose the next election, as I’ve said a number of times, but the idea that its long-term future is in danger is very premature. It wasn’t long ago that there was speculation about the viability of the Conservative party if they lost another election.
266. Don’t forget that they’ve also, cut funding to those that want to retrain and cut funding to physics research, one of the areas in which Britain is a world leader.
Mike’s favourite, John Denham is the current minister for universities.
262 - I must admit - I do like my hypens…
264-Yes but there were a lot of bad decisions that went against them
hyphens…you know what i meant
237. Richard. Empty was not the worst that could be said 221. But I will not say more for fear of being even ruder.
263
Very kind tone. Thanks. I did make the mistake of putting way too much money on Obama.Wins.SC; in fact I offered it on betfair at 1.15 and it got matched!
And after, I put more at 1.1
So I don’t want him to screw this!
BTW, I don’t put money anymore in bookmakers. I don’t like it when I wanna raise and they close their markets… In betfait, if you wanna raise on a sure bet, there is always a sucker offering (sometimes with very small odds, but it’s still free money…)
255. Well, technically 1 Conservative London Mayor against zero Labour or Lib Dem mayors would be a wipeout.
Yes, even our defence can’t blow 12 goals of goal difference in one game.
258. Why do I picture you waving a lacrosse stick above your head with your last remark, Sally?
276
I meant Obama.Wins.NC, of course.
Anyone like to guess what the turnout will be among postal voters ?
268. I personally can’t see how the Greens continue to hold it together. Aren’t they just the Lib Dems but even more Lib Demish?
261 Ipswich =
L
O
L
260 The Conservatives will keep their policies to themselves.
Better let Brown screw up with his bad policies than screw up with good Conservative policies implemented badly.
I imagine it is desirable to revert to a meritocratous system. Britain needs its most able running, engineering, teaching and treating the Country.
Lumbering teenagers with student debts as they step out into the world is not best and most likely cause dispair in fragile, growing minds.
268. Would any rightwingers see a future for UKIP if they remodelled themselves as a thatcherite/libertarian alternative to the Cameron conservatives?
269 - Sorry, you are wrong
“Under Conservatives, anyone could attend university if smart enough. Money wasnt a requirement.”
No. They had to be lucky enough to attend decent primary schools (that just happened to be in rich areas…ho hum)
“Under Labour, anyone could attend university if cash rich enough . Brains isnt a requirement.”
No upfront fees until you are earning a decent wage (and once you have a degree you’re likely to earn 1M more in the course of your lifetime so this fact Really ain’t a problem)
You’re dismissal of the rich-poor gap idea is telling.
245: ‘Labour could end up a 20th century fad’
Yes, I’m beginning to think that is a near certainty. Labour managed to live on - in name only - from 1997 to the present as a sort of husk: a vehicle that allowed Tony Blair some success with his peculiar style of non-Tory conservatism. Now Blair is gone there is nothing, only the tragicomic figure Gordon Brown, blundering about, still thinking he was more significant than he ever really was. It will be a strange tale of history.
284 - ““Under Conservatives, anyone could attend university if smart enough. Money wasnt a requirement.”
Back in the 1960s perhaps. But then Thatcher closed all the grammar schools.
268 Seant you might want a right wing party and you hope Cameron is your trojan horse to get you one.
However the majority position is a centrist social reformist government, which could come from any of the three main parties.
281 i can only agree with you, sadly. still at least we are better than norwich
269 - How has Labour stopped clever people going to university? Oh and thanks for the compliment!
256 - The differential between social classes in terms of higher education admissions is a big problem and I certainly don’t have all the answers. One of the problems with the current system and the media reporting of it is that people from lower socio-economic backgrounds think it is impossible and that it would be too expensive. The government should improve bursaries even more, but more important is dealing with structural deprivation and the quality of secondary education. I.e. not easy for governments of any colour.
266 - The government doesn’t force people to go to university and the numbers doing so haven’t increased massively over the last decade. However I think they do put too much emphasis on university and make young people think it is an essential thing to do. It is not, and for many an apprenticeship of on the job training is better. The government should ensure better careers advice for young people, but university should be available to everyone who wants to go and has the grades needed. University shouldn’t just be about its economic impact, but developing intellectually and as a person. It isn’t for everyone, but that doesn’t mean that people should be actively excluded.
275 - Take if from me - have no fear of responding to my posts as you see fit - I can take it - I’m unusually adept at dealing with pathetic right-leaning counter-arguments (and modest with it too
)
277. Why? Word association? Lacrosse = Gymslip = rude….
Your mind, but am I warm?
284 “and once you have a degree you’re likely to earn 1M more in the course of your lifetime so this fact Really ain’t a prob”
Do you really believe this? What you are saying is that every graduate will earn £1m more than every non graduate. I know plenty of graduates that earn below the average wage, how exactly are they going to earn £1m
268. The one thing that made Labour electable is that they ceased being a left-wing party and took the gentle centre-right: at least so it seemed! Tony was arguably a little to the right of Dave. They won because they knew precisely what you pointed out, namely that the place of governance in the UK is just to the right of centre.
Brown seems to have gone back to old statist socialism with the interesting quirk thrown in of taxing the very poorest members of society to give to the rich.
275. lol!
So 40, 26 and 20 it is. Tory’s will be happy of course but what chance of the Lib Dems coming second in a poll?
Mr Clegg will be a happy man
283. They would have the same success that the remodelled socialist/left alternatives to the Blairite Labour party have had.
270. Yeah, but all you do in Labour is tinker with the Thatcherite economic consensus. You accept globalism, and capitalism, indeed you positively accelerate it with your absurd immigration policy - but you try to ameliorate the effects, with a bit of twiddling at the edges - tax credits etc.
If that’s all you do - tinker at the edges of capitalism, then voters can be forgiven for wondering if someone else might tinker a little more efficiently. Like the Lib Dems.
Moreover, you have blotted your record with various disasters, lies and cock-ups - Iraq, the referendum treachery, the non-election, cash-for-coronets, etc etc. Why should anyone give you another five years in power if you are just a bunch of incompetent, lying, left-of-centre managerialists? Might as well get a different bunch of vaguely lefty managers to do a better job.
You see my point? Without ideology you are nothing. And you are nothing. Your party is nothing: a void, a bubble, a nullity, a big fat zero. Nothing.
281 - And Norwich are great by the way
291.@ 277 I have just realised you were referring to a different post! [embarrassed smilie!]
Just got back, anything happened in the sky debate?
282, Thought it might be to difficult for you to answer.
You keep it to yourselfs , probably the best place for it.
Watford rule HAHAHAHAHA
297 you are delia and i claim my 5 quid
299 - nothing that will affect the betting.
299 - Not really. It was overall the highest quality performance by all three candidates. Nothing happened that will change the result on Thursday.
299
Good, Bojo says it best when he says nothing at all……………….
284. “No. They had to be lucky enough to attend decent primary schools (that just happened to be in rich areas…ho hum).”
I know plenty of people from poor backgrounds and bad schools who went to very good universities. Indeed, the fact they had come out with good results from a bad school was considered in their application.
“No upfront fees until you are earning a decent wage.”
Not true seeing that you have to pay for living expenses. I know of several cases of extremely talented students from middle class families whose parents didn’t have enough disposable income to pay for their degree. They ended haven’t to work for a year (in some cases two) pre-degree - a year (or two) of their lives where they had to work as a nongraduate instead of a graduate.
“and once you have a degree you’re likely to earn 1M more in the course of your lifetime so this fact Really ain’t a problem”
Except this depends on the degree in question. The bottom earning degree graduates earn little more than non-graduates in similar jobs. One of the main results of Labour’s mangled reforms has actually been jobs requiring a degree when they didn’t before.
What we really should do is provide free degrees in proper academic subjects and fees for vocational subjects that will be covered by the government if you actually get a job in that field. The joke courses you can pay for yourself.
Hillary Clinton’s Indiana equalizer
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9904.html
264,
Derby have gone through almost a full season without getting enough points to lose a driving license …
293 - Labour could have been more left-wing and won in 97 and 01 at least. The size of the majority in 1997 showed that. These bad polls are the result of offending their core supporters, without it they would be where a mid-3rd-term government always would be.
302 - Let’s be having you
Welsh Norwich supporter, it’s an odd situation
284 My own experience tells me you are wrong.
I agree that state comprehensive are bad but Intelligent people can get through. Lumping the able together with the ‘unable’ and disruptive is not one of Labour’s worse policies that has done most to damage social mobility - after their student loans.
Dear me. You messed up secondary education and then went on to mess up university too.
It doesnt matter anyway. It wont be people like you making the decision in the next government.
292 - It’s just a fact. It’s over a course of a lifetime. On average, if you work at tesco all your life, and add up a life time of earnings against those at the higher end of the scale…it ain’t going to look pretty. People always say…”But i know a graducate who doesn’t earn a lot” - it proves nothing and that graduate proably still earns more then he would have got at tesco.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40.4% .. Lab 29% .. LibDem 19% .. Others 11.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 343 seats .. Lab 225 .. LibDem 50 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 36.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… ..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
London Mayoral Lib Dem 2nd prefs?
SKY news correspondent Jon Craig just now suggesting that Paddick saying “vote tactically” tonight (to his supporters regarding 2nd preferences) was ‘a subtle little hint’ that Paddick wants his supporters to vote Boris.
I didn’t see the debate - do others read Paddick’s comments that way?
311 - see my 312, it’s just a Fact.
270. Well, I never said it was likely. Just that its possible. Historically, this country was Tory/Liberal. Labour came along at a point of global social upheval and demanded rights for the poor and working classes, and thus managed to replace the Liberals. A lot of those issue’s that created Labour are no longer that relevent at this point. Where do Labour go once they are returned to Opposition? And you also have to think that if England and Scotland split, then Labours position is weakened much more in England.
All that said, the most likely scenario is that Labour will regroup in Opposition and quickly start attacking the Conservative government from the center and will thrive and prosper.
289 Kieran please see first line of post 269.
310 she is a legend. unfortunately norwich are not………
309 sorry but that is seriously untrue imho. Labour won in 1997 because Blair, following Smith, dragged them kicking and screaming to the centre / centre-right. Blair made them electable rather than a rump. Had they of remained out on the left they never would have the media behind them, especially Murdoch’s empire.
314. No there was no suggestion like that at all. Paddick was as neutral as alway, no suggestion of a preference
289 Amazingly I agree with most of what you say Kieran, the most important point you make about university is that of the grades. Universities have become substandard as there are too many of them and they are therefore not providing business with what they need or giving people the opportunity to have an enlightening experience without the constant fear of debt. There needs to be fewer univerities at a higher standard, and people need to believe that a degree means something again.
318 - she’s a legend if she lets Roeder spend money in the summer
306 - “I know plenty of people from poor backgrounds and bad schools who went to very good universities. Indeed, the fact they had come out with good results from a bad school was considered in their application.”
Fine. But the point is not about the people that you know. It’s about the fact that rich people get to go to the good schools - and - Shock, Horror - are more likely to end up in university. Yes, some clever poor people end up in univeristy - but in the great debate that anecdotal point in neither here nor there.
299 Boris good. Paddick improving. Ken yesterday’s man.
Re the alleged decrease in crime. A 68-year-old woman was beaten, stabbed and robbed three doors down from my flat, a couple of weekends ago. At 11 o’clock when the local streets are full of people.
I don’t blame this on Labour. But the idea they have got “a real handle on crime” is just laughable.
If Ken loses, it will partly be down to crime, and the perception that Labour is lying about crime.
314) 320) So Jon Craig - wishful thinking there?
296 Couldn`t your rant equally apply to Cameron, Tory light with a nice shade of apple green.
306 -
“Not true seeing that you have to pay for living expenses. I know of several cases of extremely talented students from middle class families whose parents didn’t have enough disposable income to pay for their degree. They ended haven’t to work for a year (in some cases two) pre-degree - a year (or two) of their lives where they had to work as a nongraduate instead of a graduate.”
OMG - are you saying that even some middle classe people have to work hard to get through Uni - The heart bleeds…
296 - But that is true of all the parties. What is Cameron’s ideology? He’s agreed to the majority of things that Labour have done. He will be moderately right-of-centre.
Both parties still have an ideology, its just a lot more flexible, and the differences are much smaller. I expect politics to resemble the 50s and 60s with both parties scrabbling around in the centre-ground.
As I say I’m sure Labour will lose next time, but not be replaced by the Lib Dems. FPTP entrenches parties and allows them to recover. Something deep has to happen to change party formations and there is no evidence of that at the moment.
306 - I’m surprised at that. There are loans available and you can work in the holidays.
319. Even Neil Kinnock could have won the 1997 election. Michael Foot or Tony Benn might have blown it but even a moderately left wing Labour party could have triumphed due to the division of the Conservatives. Blair’s centrism and electability just made the victory all the more decisive.
245/285. SeanT and Stark Dawning. That’s quite a thought.
Blair, Brown and Mandelsohn were the architects of NuLabour. Blair personified NuLabour and stole the Labour Party from it’s former owners. But as Blair was so essential to the NuLabour project and no “heir to Blair” has emerged, then I think it’s perfectly valid to ask the question, are Labour now in mortal danger?
314 Yep. Definitely targetted Ken Livingstale and looked as if he can work with Boris.
That and Clegg’s latest suggest a new LibDem tack.
306-
“What we really should do is provide free degrees in proper academic subjects and fees for vocational subjects that will be covered by the government if you actually get a job in that field. The joke courses you can pay for yourself.”
So that the middle classes get to learn Latin and end up in top media jobs while the working classes have to pay for their training that actually counts for something. Your suggestion is BEYOND A JOKE.
316. The problem is New Labour kept the bits of the previous Conservative government that worked, while coming up with new ideas in the bits that didn’t. Now Cameron will keep the bits of policy of that previous Tory government that worked, and the bits of policy that the Tories got wrong but New Labour got right, plus policy of his own. When two moderate governments have been in power, the consensus has got broader, meaning the room for shiny new ideas is ever dwindled.
333. Whoever said the middle classes should learn the Latin and the working classes do the training? It would all depend on your academic ability and personal choice. Plus, I said the government would pay for the training if it actually amounted to something.
306 -
“Except this depends on the degree in question. The bottom earning degree graduates earn little more than non-graduates in similar jobs. One of the main results of Labour’s mangled reforms has actually been jobs requiring a degree when they didn’t before.”
Key phrase “little more”. They’re going to earn more and they are not going to have the soul-destroyering tesco job for the rest of their lives.
By the way - was polled by YouGov tonight on the Mayoral election. Link (which began “EVE”) could well have been for Evening Standard. I’m assuming it’s an eve-of-poll one because survey dates are this evening (I got the email about 5pm) to 2pm on Wednesday)
337 - Evening standard have announced that they will do another poll
329. Student loans might just about cover living expenses and travel costs if the government takes care of the fees, but if you have to fork out for the fees then holiday work won’t cover living costs.
329. No, I think for the Tories some things are non-negotiable.
Freedom. Euroscepticism. No ID cards. Lower taxes. Slimming government. Fighting the nanny state. Deregulation. Rolling back political correctness. Abolishing quangos. More democracy. Not invading countries - at least illegally. Less bollocks all round.
We on the right still know what we stand for. You guys don’t. That’s the main difference between the parties now.
321 - My take is a little different. Everyone should have the opportunity to go to University if they want to and have the academic qualifications (i.e A Levels/IB). However I don’t go in for academic snobbery. Some of the so called ‘micky mouse’ degrees are actually more useful in terms of employment than traditional academic stuff. Also, I don’t think their should be a cap on achievement.
Al fresco - I see you have no answer to the question about how clever people have been stopped from going to Uni, what a surprise.
Richard - You place too much value on the media. If you think that Major would have lost to Smith, with a moderate agenda that didn’t go as far as New Labour, then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.
338 - So it will be published on the day of the election (if the survey completes Wednesday afternoon, YouGov process it, hits the newsstands at 11 am on Thursday).
312 As Berlescoonie says, only a retard votes socialist and only a retard would buy their nonsense. You can just imagine the day in the Leftie think tank :
“A graduate earns more money, so if we make dumb people graduates, dumb people will earn more money”
or: “Poor people vote Labour. Lets make graduates poor.”
or: “ Lets let any dumbster a graduate (if they have enough CASH) and degrees will be worthless”
How they must have p*ssed themselves laughing. The biggest anti-Socialist fraud commited by a leftie government.
I cant see the point publishing one of polling day unless it was a morning paper. by 11 am some people would have voted.
314) 332) Clegg’s Labour overtures were always to do with being in power/tactical vs policy/ideological. Clegg is a pragmatist and hungry to have a hand on the reins.
Actually Philippe, you might be on to something about Obama weakening overall which may provide some primary value if that is weakening is sustained and not just a week-long blip. It is, however, way too late for Clinton on delegate numbers at least but it is going to make things interesting.
What make me reluctant to do anything on NC at this time is that Obama is a decent cruiser when in front by such margins even if they are being trimmed. Indiana on the other hand could get interesting if it turns into trench warfare because Clinton has shown herself formidable in such situations and at last we may have a race worth getting involved in again.
Clinton has sent some serious operatives to NC to attempt to close that gap. If she got it under 10% that would have a psychological boost effect for her.
336. But you expect that in any society. People between the 70th to 80th percentile will earn more than the people between the 60th and 70th percentile whether the top 30% or top 40% have degrees.
343 Making University universally accessible based on ability to pay was never a good thing.
Just because a postman, lets call him Mr Johnson, wants to be a Brain Surgeon, that’s no reason to give him ‘access’ to medical school, just because he can find some cash.
329 yes there are, and you can but why be saddled with a lifetime of debt due to a poorly thought through policy.
I might as well put my twopenneth in about Labour. If they go down to a massive defeat next General election(which I think they will) I think the SNP will take an awful lot of seats off Labour in Scotland, and Labour will be wiped out in the south and the Midlands by the Tories. the Lib Dems then need to be able to claim a raft of Northern Labour seats as well as challenge in Wales. If they can do this sucessfully enough to offset their Southern losses and if they can have a coherent narrative of what they stand for then whilst Labour are trying to work out what they are really for in opposition the Lib Dems potentially could become the main opposition.
Admittedly lots of big ifs but if there is a time for the Lib Dems to diplace Labour it will be in the next few years.
339 - Well the government does take care of fees in the sense that you have a seperate loan for them and you pay it off after you have finished.
340 - Really? At one time the Tories supported ID cards. They have pledged to match Labour spending plans, hardly tax cuts. (The Inheritance Tax proposals were to be paid for by a new tax on non-doms). Freedom is not an exclusively right-wing concept. What was the Tory position on Iraq? There weren’t any quangos under the last government were there? More democracy - that’s pretty vacuous wouldn’t you say?
No, you’re seeing the Coservative party as you wish it was not how it is. Their ideology is as flexible as Labour’s.
340 Bollocks, ID cards, Conservatives were never ideoligical against.
On practicalities maybe. Conservatives at their best are always pragmatic.
You talk utter sh*te sometimes.
315 and earlier posts - It is not a fact that attending university is likely to lead to extra lifetime earnings of £1 million. This is one of the most intellectually bankrupt statistics ever deployed - ironic given that it used to support the cause of better education.
First, I believe the statistic derives from looking at the earnings of people who attended university in the past, when the proportions attending were much lower. As the proportion going to university rises it is obvious that the earnings effect (if any) must reduce. (consider the case of 100% going to university).
Second there is no attempt to standardise the populations going and not going to eliminate the effect of other variables. For example, if only those with high IQ go to university there is no attempt to consider what those with high IQ would have earned if they hadn’t gone.
Can’t believe that Steven Ronald thinks this nonsense is worth trotting out.
Why oh why do the Conservatives let Boris get near the TV.Have they not realised just like Cameron that he should say nothing,make absolutely no policies and smile and you win.
Once again he bumbled his way through it even with the aid of Paddick, and looked like a fool again.
He didn’t even know the GLA has it’s own Lawyer…..and he wants to be a mayor.As a Conservative I find his choice absolutely astounding.Whoever gave the go ahead needs shooting.
Message to Cameron, steady as she goes,smile,never mention policy and hope no one notices.
And incentivising marriage is not the ‘nanny state’ how?
340 Sean, odd you missed Capable Defence and Immigration Control off the list.
313
Jack W .. is it my imagination, or has your ARSE started leaning to the right?
353 Admit it.
You didnt watch the debate did you?
You sly old leftie clone you
Is it just me or is Jeremiah Wright just so ridiculous in the timing of his pronouncments that he could be a plant?
I’m guessing he’s not but he certainly knows how to maimise his effect, negatively…..
343 - It’s not a case of making dumb people graduates. It’s a case of making the clever poor person have as equal a chance of a degree as a clever rich person. But you probably knew that already and are just ranting away into the right-wing internet ether…
358. The guy’s clearly mental and with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove to boot. I think Obama’s going to have to issue a much stronger condemnation of his comments, although he will now need to stay clear of disowning the guy.
346) Yokel. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again - McCain is the way to play this messy situation. I believe Obama will be the Democratic nominee but I also believe it will be messy and advantage McCain at least until we have resolution. McCain is down about 10 clicks on Betfair since I wrote at length about this and I think he can approach 2/evens at some point this year - that’s a nice trade in a very liquid market. I’m convinced and have around 3k on him @ 2.7 and I will top up if my Boris bet comes in.
353 As I say, he wont be deciding in the next government. So its just all sound & thunder with smoke & fluff thrown in for good measure.
340 What are you on, Sean? It is hard to see where most of your list comes from, but the last item is ridiculous “Not invading countries - at least illegally.”
Come off it. Blair relied on Tory support to send troops to Iraq. Without the loyal support of IDS and Cameron, he would not have been able to participate in the invasion.
Eurofriendly Ken Clarke was just about the only Tory to oppose it.
350. Bollocks to the power of bollocks. The Tories are instinctively anti ID cards - Howard was an aberration. The Tories decided against ID cards in the 90s, and they oppose them now.
That is the essence.
Tax cuts. Who do you really trust to deliver tax cuts? Well, exactly.
Democracy. Who promised a referendum on a Treaty, in a manifesto, then reneged? And lied about it? Ugh.
Quangos. Who will really get ride of these? Labour, that depends on the public sector payroll vote? Or the Conservatives? Nuff said.
Iraq. Who is the most senior politician to apologise for the war? Boris Johnson. Who is still opposing an inquiry? Gordon Brown?
Who started the damn war?
Exactly.
You party is an excrescence. A boil. A blackhead. Time to cleanse.
357.Yes I did,and was yet again dismayed.How did CO let him become our runner I do not know.
Put it this way.We are 14% in front nationally,this idiot is neck and neck with an unpopular mayor.
Cracking choice.
As others have identified here, the raison d’etre for the Labour Party has gone. Class-based politics had a good run from 1918 to some point in the Seventies, but that’s over. Blair realised this, and wooed the middle classes, and Southern Working Classes. At the same time, Labour’s aggressive pursuit of identity politics (pioneered by Livingstone et al in the 1980s) began to bear fruit.
But that’s now gone tired. Middle class and Southern working class voters have fallen out of love with New Labour, and minority identity politics is creating white identity politics as a reaction. So where does Labour go now?
354-Or it could be seen as a tax break. After all, Labour gave a huge tax break to homosexuals with their civil partnerships. (Why were there no discussions as to the cost of that?)
359 Agghh! Are you still at it?
Its like Night of the Leftie Dead.
What do we need to do to accept the world is round and that up is not down?
361 - Are you not worried about his deteriorating position in the match-ups between him and the Democrats. He has not led Obama in one poll during April. This is while the Democrats are throwing mud at each other and are divided. The only way I see McCain winning is if the loser in the Dem race refuses to endorse the winner and claims to have been cheated. This is possible but not likely.
356 MTF. There’s been a pile of opinion in the right cheek that has now been lanced !!
362.Thank god for that.
218: Thanks, Tressage. I decided a very long time ago that anything I did politically wasn’t going to be about me. It’s nice to be appreciated but I like to think it’s not important, and I’ll work just as hard regardless, for what I see as a noble cause. Very corny, but every party needs a backbone of people who feel like that.
352 - What ever way you look at it, a univeristy education pays for itself. The clever poor people should be encouraged to go to uni as this will lesson the gap between the rich and the poor (FYI - i.e. A Good Thing)
Socrates suggestion of fee-free middle class subjects and fee-paying working class subjects is almost the exact opposite of how it should be.
353 - Huh? Do you just nod with every utterance Ken makes?
Seant - The Conservatives have offered a referendum on the Treaty because it is politically advantageous. If they had been in government they would have avoided one, just like they did over Maastrict.
Fact is, in opposition supporters can project their hopes onto their party. But when in government the conservatives will compromise those principles, as all parties do.
361. McCain has already given me a grand and a half for taking the nomination and a few hundred on top taking some primaries but I am not yet confident that he is going to get the top job. There is too much running against him strategically with a faltering economy and 8 years of Bush.
I do have plenty of regard for the old goat and I fully acknowledge that he’s got a decent chance because no matter what some say he is, in the eyes of many many Americans seen as the anti-Bush.
As yet though, he can’t carry my money though I’d be perfectly happ to change my mind.
374.Ken is a fraud.Boris is a total buffoon who will blow the best chance of gaining the Mayor we have had.
370 but it wont go down before Thursday…..
340 - But none of those policies are likely to be simply translated into government action: opposition programmes never do. In action, they will have to be watered down - for electoral consideratins; because of concerns over feasibiliy or administrative concerns; because the policies conflict with each other; and so forth. It’s very rare to get a period like the 1980s or 1945-47, when a party can really let rip. There is a potential mild centre-left project, based on moderate resdistribution, higher taxation, constitutional reform and so on, and I suspect that’s what Labour will develop in the future when it’s out. In a way, some Labour people will argue, the New Labour years will allow the party to shift left without people worrying that it’s going to ripen into Bennism (and, by the next Parliament, Bennery and the 1980s loony left will be almost as historically relevant as Bevanism was in the 1980s.
IF THIS IS TRUE, THEN MY $$$ WILL BE ON THE RIGHT TO WIN THE GE
“Britain has emerged as the focal point of Islamist terror in Europe, according to Europol, the European police force.”
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/UK_centre_of_Islamist_terror_in_Europe_Europol/articleshow/2991115.cms
On the subject of tuition fees, I’m about to attend a fairly decent university to study a ’serious’ subject as a mature (poor) student. I’m going to get a pretty decent amount in terms of grants, bursaries etc, and will, quite reasonably in my opinion, be expected to pay off (at a very modest rate) my tuition fees if and when my study begins to bear fruit in terms of salary. I can’t see a problem with that at all.
353. Lawyer is a pretty generic term. Boris did mention ’silk’, it is unlikely a QC would be on a full time salary by the GLA. The GLA lawyer will be someone responsible for making sure the planning applications are sent to the newspapers in time, and making sure procedures are followed. I doubt he would be a criminal defence barrister or solicitor.
373. You’re the one labelling certain subjects “middle class” and “working class”! History, English and Economics should be open to the intellectuals from poor backgrounds, and training in plubming or business should be open to the vocationally minded from the middle class. A university degree does not pay for itself if an extra 10% of the population now have to take three years out of their working lives to get a qualification for a job that wouldn’t be needed if less people were going for university.
And once again - the vocational training would be PAID FOR if you actually went into the relevant field.
365. “How did CO let him become our runner I do not know.”
Because at the time when he was eventually picked (the nomination period had to be extended - twice), nobody thought Labour could make such a mess of the-election-that-never-was, IHT, non-doms, Northern Rock, 10p tax etc. etc. and that the Tories would be anywhere near the position they find themselves in.
369-Polls in the spring are no indication of the result in November. Ross Perot was elading at one point in 1992.
By the same token Obama has a problem connecting with voters in those swing states likes Pa, Oh, Fla. Personally I now think Obama will be the nominee. I also hope he loses, but am not sure if this will be because he’s a flawed candidate or because Hilary will be ungenerous in her concession speech. If Obama loses in 08 Hialry will believe she has a chance in 2012 (no one else does, but…). If he wins, its curtains.
Klik-Klik.Blam! Klik-Klik.Blam! Klik-Klik.Blam!
They just dont die!
No wait.
I remember from the old book with funny symbols on it.
You have to remove their funding…Thats it.
I’ve got to get back to the Parliament. That is where the beasts draws power.
Think. Think…got to think…
privatise the BBC…ok…cut union grants…yes…arrest the corrupt…stop them creating fake state zombie jobs.
Its just might work“
377 Matthew Parris once pointed out that most politicians are dull people trying to look clever but that Boris was a genius trying to look less clever so that people will like him.
If you think he is a buffoon, he seems to have fooled you.
Ouch - 26% is less than Michael Foot got…
369) “361 - Are you not worried about his deteriorating position in the match-ups between him and the Democrats. He has not led Obama in one poll during April”
I don’t understand what you mean? Here’s Rasmussen with a series of leads over Obama nationally during April;
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
375. Simply wrong.
361
I think you are right. (I have 1730 CAD$ at 2.85 on Mac to be Pres.)
Here is why (in part) i think his chances are growing: he will be able to attract centrist-Dems and Independants:
In order for McCain to compete for the voters in the center of the political spectrum (the so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’ and centrist Independants), the ‘maverick’-Mac will be taking shots at the GOP.
Just recently, he criticized :
–> the Bush’s handling of Hurricane Katrina;
–> the North Carolina GOP commercial with Jeremiah Wright ‘god***ing America’;
–> the Cincinnati talk show host Bill Cunningham for calling Obama, “Barack HUSSEIN Obama”, “Barack HUSSEIN Obama”, “Barack HUSSEIN Obama”.
THE POINT IS: Mac will benefit from the attacks waged by the GOP attack machine on Obama; yet he will look like the ‘maverick’ guy taking the Ethical High Road by restlessly criticizing the “negative campaigning” sponsored by his own Party…
301. Ave It O8.
The Labour Party.
“L” to the “O” to the “L” to the LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
380-Thought it was common knowledge.
As far back as 2000 the French were fingering the UK for their lax attitude to Islamic terror. Indeed, pre 7/7 we were told some hokum about how Islam had some law about respecting the country that gave its people sanctuary adn so no terror attacks were to be expected in the UK. I suspect a Labour Immigration minister, or Labourite think tank was at the heart of this lie.
AAronivitch is angryyy!!!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article3835364.ece
I could see him being once of those political officers at Stalingrad that held a gun to the Backs of their soldiers to make sure they fought the Germans. Sadly enough despite his protestations of being an ex marxist in his heart of hearts so can he.
390. Or will he look weak by not being able to control his party?
What popular policies will he propose on:
(a) the economy?
(b) healthcare?
(c) Iraq?
Those will be the top three issues in November.
383 - So if you do not think you can win it you put up an ididot?
We should be 10% in front,and taking away “anyhing YOU say GOV” who kept telling us we were closing in on Labour at the last election,the rest say we are either 1 point up or neck and neck with the Newt Fraud.
Maybe it is always best to put up our best candidate….or is that to much to ask?
391 TEE HEE
388 - I meant stand alone National Polls - I was excluding the Trackers, should have been clearer. However even with Rasmussen they are level. But they are showing about 20-30% of Dems defecting. Surely you don’t believe that will happen in November?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Peter2 - Polls in Spring don’t decide the outcome but they aren’t irrelevant either. I think Mike S posted something a while back showing a pretty good correlation. The fact is things are about as good as they are likely to get for McCain and he is still behind.
375/389-That the Tories offered no referendum in 1993 does not mean they will offer none in 2010+ (and both Labour and the LDs were committed to a referendum in 2005). No more than because Labour believed in nationalising anything that f@rted in 1980, it believed so in 1997.
364. You hardly speak for all conservatives, just the right wing bollock breakers, that have to be kept out of sight incase they scare, the Cameron centrists away.
392. Actually, if you read your Islamist history there WAS a tacit agreement between the British authorities and jihadist cells - that if the Muslims avoided any atrocities on British soil, then the police/security agencies would avoid clamping down on the activists.
The agreement was known as “the Covenant”. Indeed, I think al-Qaeda’s breaking of “the Covenant” - with 7/7 - caused some friction WITHIN Islamist circles, as it meant they had lost a valuable sanctuary in the UK.
395 Hey you’re a troll arent you. I read about your lot.
Would you “your best candidate” also be an Impartial Observer?
386 - You just don’t have a good degree from Oxford in classics if you are an idiot.
The number of usually intelligent people who fall for the ‘Boris is thick’ bollocks astounds me.
380. Its been a focus since the 1980s.
Ask the French who were very very cheesed off at Britain’s attitude about who they played host too 20 years ago..
360. Loon he may be but he’s come out swinging.
395 - He’s NOT an idiot!!!!
Can I just say that I have just bet my largest ever stake in this political betting game on Ken. The price is simply MILES away from reality. The turnout is the biggest unknown, but the predictions are way off. Contrary to what has been said on this forum, it is a castiron certainty that turnout will be lower than current consensus and that will favour Ken despite the polling gap.
This provides an AMAZING and UNIQUE opportunity to make money at an incredible price of 6/4. Take my advice.
390. So ‘Mac’ will appear weak by being unable to control his own party?
Martin Coxall - now 353, THAT is an astroturfer
I suspect a Labour Immigration minister, or Labourite think tank was at the heart of this lie.
Hardly - these complaints were common for much of the 1990s. The key element here was that, at that time, most Islamist terrorist activity in Europe seemed to be focused on Israeli, US or French targets, so the argument ran that a watching brief was appropriate here, and attacks on UK soil would be concentrated on targets from those countries (like the attack on the Israeli Embassy in the mid-90s).
384
Because of the importance of TV in US politics, it will be more about Character than Issue.
But if I’m wrong, and
If it’s about Iraq, McCain wins;
If it’s about the economy, McCain wins (pools gives him an edge here over Obama!)
If it’s about Healthcare, Obama wins.
392 “. I suspect a Labour Immigration minister, or Labourite think tank was at the heart of this lie”
When you see the amount of support Ken gets from the British Muslim Asian Commuunity, you can understand why.
It seems to me we were all wrong. There is one person more determined than Hillary Clinton that she win the nomination - Rev Wright!
Or perhaps two. Clinton and McCain have come out in favour of a tax holiday on gas and Obama has not agreed! Only 18c per gallon and a sop, but why oppose it? Clinton now wants a windfall tax on the oil companies. I’m sure that won’t lose her any votes either.
Does Obama really want to win this thing?
Londonistan: How Britain is creating a terror state within
Excellent book. Must read for learning of the dangers of having cowardly open borders, benefits and bombs for all Labour govt.
405 Can you also advice me on Vi@gra Pills and some excellent investment opporuunities in Nigeria?
406
I don’t think so:
It will enable him to distanciate himself from Toxic Bush and from radical Republicans like Limbaugh (yet both Bush and Limbaugh will be working for his victory).
He will be getting the best of the 2 worlds:
–the effect of GOP Obama bashing
–The effect of his own apparent rejection of negative campagining…
Furthermore: McCain is projecting a strong image of Leadership.
400/408-Shocking isn’t it? We don’t care if you bomb a McDonalds or an airliner so long as it’s not one of ours.
Well, my good friends - who have now voted for 3 parties in 3 general elections - have now done their postal vote after watching all the debates. One went for Boris - after flirting with Paddick - and his wife went Paddick then Boris.
404.No, you are right,an idiot who wants to be Mayor doesn’t need to know the GLA has a lawyer,especially when he is trying to take the piss out of his opponent on national TV about needing one.
Someone at CO will need to expalain how this clown didn’t win if it happens and we wipe out Labour everywhere else.
396. Labour Meltdown on Thursday night. Mark my words.
Labour to lose 300+ seats… Con GAIN Zimbabwe in recount.
The following PDF file is of interest: http://www.comres.co.uk/resources/7/Political%20Polls/Political%20Poll%20Apr%2008.pdf
412-Unfortunately the price of this Labour government’s disgraceful acts will be with us long after Gordon and Tony have been consigned to the dustbin of history.
Is it me or have there been 1,300 posts today? Holy cow…
415. Shocking, maybe. Amoral, certainly. Unprecedented - no. France operated a very similar covenant with Basque terrorists until recently: i.e. you eschew casualties/atrocities on French soil, and we will avoid locking you up in French jails.
I think this covenant finally ended under Chirac/Aznar.
390) Phillipe, I think that’s a good bet. The nice thing about the President market is you can get in and out whenever you like. There’s currently over £1400 of money on the lay side in a market that’s spread is always at the minimum increment.
By the way Phillipe, I think you’re a nice chap and I appreciate you plugging away posting in a second language but be careful not to alienate people on here by always pressing a single point or theme constantly - it loses its effect due to repetition. C’est n’est pas une grande probleme pour moi mais je crois que c’est un peu difficile pour les autres.
405 - why?
You may be right about turnout - it will be similar to last time (38%) - but there is no evidence that a low turn out (or indeed a high turnout) will benefit Ken.
It’s exactly the sort of excuse Tories made in the mid 1990s - that there wasn’t really a swing against them it was just their voters were abstaining. Well regardless of which poll you believe Labour voters are abstaining in droves - which means a big swing swing against them.
405. “Oh… PLEASE! PLLLEEEAASE!! Shore up my betting position!! Ahhh!!! Help me hedge my losses!! Oh god, Ken will lose!! Ken will LOOOOSE!! HELP ME! HEEEEELPPP MEE!!!!!!! ARRGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!”
Most pathetic post I’ve seen all evening.
Suk my Dik. You will lose your money and deservedly so.
395. No, the ‘best candidates’, who you do not name, didn’t think there was an earthly chance of winning, so didn’t go forward. Boris was brave enough to do so.
There is a general misconception, fed by the media, that Parties are top-down and ‘pick’ or ‘put up’ candidates but, for Opposition parties at least, they usually have a measure of bottom-up democracy. I.e. ask for nominations, and then let the members elect their choice.
330 But I think you miss the crucial point that Tory divisions emerged because Labour under Blair were putting them under such pressure. Mind you, let’s not split hairs too much here. The fact is that Kinnock / Smith / Blair all moved Labour into an electable position. Under Blair that was just centre right (Christian Democratic?!). With Kinnock and Smith it probably would have been centre left. But Blair won the middle classes - decisively so.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080428/D90B3PS81.html
This is interesting Re: NC primary….
422-But we expect it from the French!!
They also did it in the 1970s with (secular) Arab terrorists. I think the covenant with ETA started to unravel in the 1980s. I would like to think it was because off duty Spanish policemen popped across the broder and shot the ETA gunmen in cafes, but am probably wrong.
And then there’s The Sun e-poll
Striding ahead … Boris Johnson
BoJo takes lead in Sun e-pollBy VIKKI THOMAS
Published: Today
AN EXCLUSIVE Sun e-poll has shown Conservative candidate Boris Johnson is striding ahead of red rival Ken Livingstone.
The result comes just days before voters across the capital take to the polls and decide who should become the Mayor of London.
Conducted over the last three weeks, our poll asked who should be the winner of the May 1 election and shows true Blue BoJo has racked-up a whopping 54 per cent.
In second place was Labour’s candidate and governing Mayor, Ken Livingstone with a 15 per cent share of the vote.
And in third place was former top cop and Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick with 9 per cent of votes.
But hot on his heels was Richard Barnbrook, the British National Party’s candidate, who took seven per cent of the vote.
Gerard Batten, who is representing the UK Independence Party racked-up six per cent
404. The great thing about this charactature that Boris is a bumbling idiot, is that I reakon he’s going to the impress when people actually see him in action. People have got such low expectations that if he only runs a modestly effective administration, he’ll gaurantee re-election in 2012.
Anybody see Hazel Blears on Newsnight? Getting all her lines ready for Thursday about how the people are giving the government a kicking because of the cost of living. How the Tories are not where Labour were in 1995. And at the end she said; “Gordon Brown is here to stay and Labour are here for the long term.” At which I thought;
And don’t we bloody know it!
405 - so what do you think the turnout in London will be on Thursday ?
393: ‘AAronivitch is angryyy!!!’
Aaronovitch sounds unhinged! What’s going on with these Times columnists? This morning we had Hames proffering the priceless advice - with the aim of saving Brown’s premiership - that Gordon should hire Michael White to write his PMQ quips. Thank God I no longer buy The Times. I’d be demanding a refund for such gruel.
418
CR, Do you think its likely therefore that Labour will poll worse than Comres is showing?
430 - That voodoo poll is interesting in one way: if, among the Sun’s demographic, Barnbrook’s getting only 7%, there’s a real chance that the BNP won’t have the traction to get a list seat.
424 (why Ken wins) - Look at the various demographics by age and social strata, examine voting intentions by each, and the conclusion is straightforward.
What swings it against Boris is the young, wealthy or at least aspirational commuter belt vote which has a sub-20% voting intention. They talk a big game, but rarely vote outside of GEs.
The high-voting (70%+ intention) is the female, working class type that has the time to be bothered to go to/find the polling station and for the most part leans to Ken.
In short, the core Boris vote (old granny Smith) is not enough to outweigh the Labour council core.
Ken wins, QED.
I have a summary spreadie if it’s of interest.
Mike, what’s the deal with the ICM poll - does it exist or not? I missed any earlier discussion so can’t make out why the Telegraph would have quoted it if not, but nobody’s referring to it - just a mistake, or a reference to an earlier poll?
434. Given where Labour are in the national polls, I could see them dropping down to low 20’s on Thursday. Quite how that would work out in seat numbers, though, I can’t say. But I do think the % of the vote will be a real eye-opener.
Gin - Look at the polls,we shouldn’t be in this position.Look at some of the comments on Conservativehome.There is a bounce back to Livingstone because people who have dallied with Boris,then see him on tv,then do not take him serious.
I will vote for him but I know quite a few that are not going to vote all together as they wont vote for any other party but say it would be rediculous to have this joker as mayor of London.He sounds like he struggles to string a sentence together.
419. I wonder if Stuart Dickson will do a post on the Scottish sub-sample (of 74!) tomorrow?
436 How do you relate that to the fact that the turnout at local elections is always higher in the suburbs than it is in central London.
385 The zombies have gone…Its almost as if they have been called off.
Zombies dont sleep. But I must. Got to find somewhere to rest now. It is late. When the sun comes up the clones will walk. Must go to bed…
436) Share the spready. Upload it to google docs or scribd some such.
425- Or you’ll eat your hat on a youtube clip!
423- Yes. Thanks. I note our good advice. And it’s appreciated. Sincerely.
439 - What evidence do you have to prove that there is a bounce back to Ken?
441 - That is fine, but population density in inner cities/zone 2 is a little greater than I think you appreciate.
435. But the demographic is Sun readers who can use a computer keyboard.
Incidentally and a bit O/T how many posts have there been today? This thread is up towards 500, there was an earlier one over 500.
Comments from Conservative canvassers last night and the night before on Conservativehome.
On the bright side we will slaughter Labour elsewhere.
437
Nick, look at previous pulled thread re poll.
439. YouGov are showing the gap wideneing the nearer we get to Thursday. And I have to say, I’ve looked at ConservativeHome a few times, and I find some of the defeatist replys and constant moaning from armchair generals to be bizzare.
There are some very good reasons why the Mayoralty is closer than the national picture. For a start, London is a Labour city. Not as much as it was was in 2000 and 2004, but they still have that core support. You also have to factor into this Ken’s personal popularity and the fact he has a unique relationship with Londoners. That said, I believe Boris is on course for a win, so we’ll see.
446 density is irrelevant, its whether a resident has the right to vote surely?
446-But how many are ont he rolls?
434/438. *Slightly* tongue in cheek, but, yes (!) I think Labour will be SLAUGHTERED on Thursday.
Voters are very angry. In 2004, there was the aftermath of Iraq, but also an unpopular and useless Tory Party, a reasonably regular Labour lead and a tranquil economy.
Now, the economy is very dodgy, living costs are sky-rocketing, there are cock-ups galore from central government and we have a right t*t as Prime Minister.
No-one seems to have a good word for Labour. No-one.
Personally, I think Labour will be absolutely smashed and we will be shocked on Friday morning at the results.
Really shocked.
Admin, can you moderate posts and posters like 425.
This is a family program, and such obscene abuse should not be tolerated….
441 - what has that got to do with turnout, which is higher outside the centre - and where people have further to walk/drive to the polling station. In Southwark/Lambeth, the turnout is never higher than 30 odd percent, and less in some wards. In Enfield it is 40 plus percent. Most outer London Boroughs are in the 40s while Inner London is 20 or 30. It will be no different on Thursday, not the percentage overall, but it was be lower in inner London.
439 – “I will vote for him”
Who’s more foolish, the fool or the fool that follows him?
Look at how many MP consitituencies (in numbers) in outer London/suburbia as a ratio to the number of MP constituencies (in numbers) in the inner cities. I think you will be surprised by the ratio (any guesses anyone?)
Sutton Sue doesn’t determine mayoral elections I’m afraid, more Peckham Pam….
yes, Casino - have you been on the sauce tonight?
451 At least you don’t make rash predictions like that clown on UK polling Mike the Oracle.I hope any floating voters don’t bumble across that forum.It is more right wing than Conservativehome and Mike makes me embarrased,so could only be a turn off for anyone left of Redwood.
447 - I’d thought of that
But web access is now so widespread that I doubt the demographic difference between those reader who use the Web and those who don’t would be huge.
422 These “covenants” are quite common. The Irish Republic, for example, was not displeased to see its territory used by the IRA to hit targets in Northern Ireland, but would always have cracked down if the IRA began hitting targets South of the Border.
The UK has, also, always been a haven for foreign terrorists. We harboured the Italian fascists who blew up Bologna railway station in 1980, and our judges are proud to give protection to Muslim terrorists today.
Not being a prominent lawyer myself, I’ve never really understood why prominent lawyers get some sort of thrill out of protecting terrorists.
449 - From Conservative Canvassers and on Con Home.
Con Home has many posters who have never voted Conservative in their life.
As for canvassers, dream on. Either they are leading you up the garden path or you must think some of us were born yesterday.
There’s a 147 brewing on BBC2 from Ronnie
Link up at the main website http://www.comres.co.uk/Voting-Intention-Poll-April-2008.aspx but clicking on it takes you back to the main page
456 - You are partially right. People in inner London tend to move more often than those in the suburbs, that is part of the reason why the turnout is higher in outer London.
464 - I’ll bet you a tenner he makes it.
458 - Someone gave the figures the other night. 4 million in outer london and only 3 million in inner london. That includes newham and Harringey being in inner London. Dont forget, many inner London Boroughs are only two constituencies, in the suburbs it is three.
150k?
455. Ar%e. B00bs. T1ts. C0Cks. Pubes. Diks. Big-huge wobbly bits..
What are you going to do about it Rod?
It’s after the 9pm watershed. If you don’t like it, tough.
459. I’ve had one or two, but I’m just in a bombastic mood and the astroturfers/trolls are winding me up!
This is fun.
458-A quick count, and using subjective criteria as to inner London/suburbia gives me about 48 suburban to 28 inner London seats. I have probably missed/miscounted a few but I think this is a fair estime. I am happy to be corrected.
461 They dont even have to read the Sun, or be eligible to vote either.. They could even be schoolkids..
I hope they are leading me up the garden path,I really do,but watching yet another bad performance tonight,I doubt it.Can they not get someone to tell him to stop pausing when speaking mid-sentence.Then repeating himself.
Hopefully they will cancel the mayoral election and only the council one will take place.
462. Because they’re Ar**holes Sean.
It really doesnt need more explanation.
471 you need to include the Harringey and newham seats as Inner London, that is what ONS does - so i read on here the other night
462-And ANC terrorists!
And Chechens too!
I think it’s a bit unfair to compare the ANC to Chechens. I don’t think the ANC blew up apartment blocks or took entire schools hostages. Not quite Mandela’s style.
Inside Sport is a woeful problem - why do they put so sport hacks on TV - they write for newspapers for a reason (face for radio, personality of a plank of wood). It’s really gone far enough - I want my license fee back.
477 - Winnie was capable
471-I did. Had some doubts on Brent and Ealing. Brent North is undoubtedly suburbia but the other seats? Also included Waltham Forest in suburbia. But still think the 4:3 split sounds appropriate depsite some tinkering at the edges.
474-Cherie Blair involved?
405: anyone making their largest ever bet would bother to check the odds, in which case they’d find 2.75 available rather than 2.5
Makes quite a lot of difference - for every 1k that’s 250 pounds more profit on a win.
479 - yes, but I don’t think that any members of her “Mandela United Football Club” sought refuge in the UK, or were quite capable of what the Chechen warlords are.
471 I was only going by how ONS treats boroughs, but Waltham Forest and Brent would be considered outer London and suburbia.
472 - Well I don’t hold any interest in our e-poll. It’s more a bit of fun. But the real opinion polls point to me to a sizeable Boris win.
Who is my tenner bet with about the Boris winning by more than 5? I need to get an email to PtP before Weds. What is his email address?
474 It’s odd. Lawyers are meant to uphold the rule of law, but some, at least, identify with people who want to replace the rule of law with the law of the jungle.
“Inner London” areas by rough judgement that lie outside the old LCC boundary would include Willesden (Livingstone’s own patch), southern parts of Ilford, the Penge area of Bromley and northern Croydon.
482 - But that’s on a win. He’ll lose the same amount whichever site he threw his money at!
And the Leyton and Walthamstow areas of Waltham Forest too, I might add.
458
elephantman,are you pissed?
486. Lawyers are supposed to get you off if they’re defending you, get you sent down if they’re prosecuting you. Nothing more, nothing less…
Judges and juries are supposed to uphold the rule of law, but both of them have get-outs if they want.
485 David
arklebar@talktalk.net
489, you should also add the two Newham seats, and at least tottenham from Harringey. Maybe Barking and Dagenham too
“491 Judges and juries are supposed to uphold the rule of law, but both of them have get-outs if they want.”
That’s what worries me. When it comes to extradition, it seems to me that the rule of law goes out the window, and comes down to “do I sympathise with these people?”
I didn’t like the European Arrest Warrant at all - but I can see why the EU brought it in - member governments were sick to the back teeth of judges giving sanctuary to criminals.
409 - “Because of the importance of TV in US politics, it will be more about Character than Issue.”
Utter crap.
Iraq, the economy, healthcare
or
some bloke they knew and do they drink the right drink and eat the right food.
414 - Add deluded to the above. McCain is a nice enough bloke but he’s got so many difficulties on the policies that matter that he is going to suffer losing his poll rating bit by bit as these bite.
He could only counter that by trying to be negative but Clinton has already shot that bolt and it’s not in his make up. A divided set of tactics for the GOP would do for him in just the same way as being exposed to the problems of health, economy and Iraq.
You to play.
486 - Just playing devil’s advocate for a moment here, is it perhaps possible that the judges have more of an understanding of the rule of law than you do?
490 - Very unparliamentary language there sir! We all get tired and emotional from time to time…
439. Mate…could you stop pretending you are a Conservative please. You are just embarrassing yourself and ruining the thread.
It has clearly passed you by but most people here are intelligent and educated and your frankly fiurth rate trolling is just annoying. I imagine you think you are being clever or funny but I am sorry to say you are neither.
496 I would say that many of our judges are very “creative” in the way that they uphold the law, and often do precisely the opposite of what our legislators intended.
Surely the time has now come to search all Austrian cellars, and release the thousands of young women imprisoned within.
I think there is a real problem with consensus building on this website. If Ken is 6/4, he is considered by all here as “a rank outsider”, yet if it was a football game, that would be a minor shock if the game went to the less-fancied team.
Beware these media-sensational polls - Ken is still very much within a shout of winning by half a length, let alone a short head.
501) Yes, good point. Ken’s price should be a lot longer…
493 - That can be a bit of a trap - because outer London low-income low-income areas, while sharing some characteristics like a strong Labour vote, can behave differently politically from their inner-London counterparts (ethnicity is one reason - the presence of young professionals or a gentrifying element in even the poorest areas of inner London is another factor. Hence, say, the relative appeal of the Greens).
499 - Fair comment and I wouldn’t disagree. Perhaps the greater fault lies with the legislators though, if they leave things so open to interpretation?
If the price lengthens, I will double up with pride.
I have confidence in the predictability of my models, which focus on who ACTUALLY VOTES. Do you actually realise how many thousands of people who “hope” Boris wins, will not actually vote? It is a larger portion than those who actually do. How is that not significant?
That is the biggest independent variable, yet nobody on this forum has a clear view of how to measure it. In its place, there is puerile commentary, but no hard facts. That is when you know you are on to something good (as they say in the investment business - look at C&C group - you only had to look around you to see that no-one was drinking Magners last summer, yet the stock was at E12! Experts missed it, cos they weren’t actually looking in pubs.)
It’s all measurable - even a straw poll is better than none at all to ask people at the same time, “who will you vote for”, “come on, seriously, will you actually be arsed that day, especially if it’s raining, to go there, will you really?”
There will be more lazy Boris voters than anybody else in this election.
Firstly what another great poll for the Tories, but I’ll hang fire on reading too much into this. Better wait for the cold light of day on Saturday, having had time to digest this Thursday.
Cracking set of snooker matches today - Liang Wenbo amazing gutsy performance to see off Swail 13-12 after going through the wringer, and I simply run out of superlatives for Rocket Ronnie, yet another awesome 147!
I just love Michael Crick at election time, that guy has got going round pre-elections down to a fine art form, was laughing all through his piece on Newsnight, well done once again!! Hazel Blears yet another NuLabour darlek robot, you don’t need to ape Yvette from last week Hazel!
In the financial markets an absolute critical time in the battle between bears (myself included) and the bulls. VIX (volatility index) below 20, indicating bullish sentiment, S&P 500 up against critical resistance at 1405, had a stab today and fell back. Meanwhile Moody’s and S&P continue to keep AAA ratings on very distressed bond insurers including MBAC even though it announced 1st quarter losses 4 times higher than Wall Street expected. They’re trying to hold the line with this fake AAA rating with a company on its knees, because they know if they downgrade, it could set off a meltdown in the municipal bond market - interesting times. Also big potential in my opinion for some fireworks in the long end of the bond market, that is starting to get very worried about the inflation in the system - all in all an absolutely absorbing rest of the week coming up with a slew of news coming the markets way - bring it on!
37 Al Fresco
The only councillor on my council [where I was a member] ever to be accused of electoral fraud was a Tory [Poor Old Hilda Faction.]
He was found guilty and sent to prison. He’d been getting little old ladies to sign postal vote forms and then filling them in for himself at his home.
So I guess the landslide on Thursday will be even bigger if there is Postal Vote Fraud; where I lived only the Tories were ever involved in it.
Malcolm
Multiple response thingy
The poll I’m interested in seeing, is the John Loony poll. That is, his embargoed analysis of hours of direct observation of postal ballot processing in Deep South London!
Am guessing that it will be kosher for him to tell us what he’s observed as soon as the polls close May 1. Too late for punters (I reckon) but still worth knowing . . .
The D.A.R.O. told me today that I will be allowed to reveal the figures from my tallying of postal votes after the close of poll.
Unless I’m very much mistaken, I think John Loony has already posted his forecast (Boris to win narrowly), near the top of the previous thread. In view of his previous comments, I was somewhat surprised to see this, I must say.
The forecast of the result which I have posted a number of times on a few websites is a prediction which I made about two weeks ago, before I started observing the postal votes being processed. Since I started watching the postal votes, I have not updated or revised my prediction in any way, and I have been careful not to make any comments or hints which might give away any information. So therefore, yes you are mistaken.
I do John Loony an injustice for which I apologise. His prediction to which I referred above and which appeared in post 15 of the previous thread, was his ORIGINAL prediction, i.e. before he first became involved in any capacity as regards postal voting.
Oh all right then
What is the form when confronted with a ‘no junk mail/ free newspapers’ sign?
I take the approach that a leaflet is helping people to be involved in the democratic process - albeit in a minor way - and therefore press ahead anyway.
I usually deliver a leaflet unless it specifically says “No leaflets” or “No election material” etc.; election leaflets are not junk mail.
Opposing gay marriage is not homophobic. Marriage is designed for men and women to give children a stable upbringing.
Contradiction!
Not being a prominent lawyer myself, I’ve never really understood why prominent lawyers get some sort of thrill out of protecting terrorists.
They don’t protect them, they represent them. And they don’t do it for a thrill; they do it because they believe in fairness within the criminal justice system - and because they get paid.
504 Yes. The HRA gives immense scope to interpret the law as one deems appropriate. The government was mad to bring it in.
507 I think you’re behind the times now. PV fraud is no longer just about a few confused old ladies.
470 Cassie
Gosh, that post was really amusing. Are you representative of all Tories [Pretty Boy Dave faction?]
Malcolm
“They don’t protect them, they represent them. And they don’t do it for a thrill; they do it because they believe in fairness within the criminal justice system - and because they get paid.”
There are lawyers who go further than simply taking their clients as they find them, and they act as their advocates outside the courtroom, as well as inside it.
506 - AMBAC, not MBAC
505 - But no poll I know of shows Boris voters as being softer than Ken voters as a whole. Everything we know about Labour voters and Tory voters; the impact of the current national political situation; and the impact of the activist ground war (such as it was) points to a Ken vote which is weaker. Of course, there is a frivolous “he’s a laugh” pro-Boris element - but I remain to be convinced that this is significant.
505 - Your suggestion that people on here are not capable of being as wise as you are is very arrogant.
Many of Ken’s supporters won’t vote. In fact, his inner-city minority ethnic supporters are significantly less likely to turn out than Boris Johnson’s suburban voters.
That is based on hard facts over many previous elections not a straw poll of my household.
All along, I’ve been of the view that, while the personality battle is important, and Ken would probably edge it if this were the most important factor, what matters is Labour’s underlying weakness as a government, even for an election like the Mayoralty. This seems to be ocming to fruition.
Is Rev Wright trying to throw the nomination to HRC? CBS news doesn not make happy viewing. If he doesn’t want his man to lose out he needs to shut his mouth!
514 - This is a mayoral contest, driven by personalities which do not align with conventional Westminster thinking about social strata, demographics and the traditional parties. You need to look abroad for relevant comparisons in my opinion to see how voting intentions over-shoot expectations. If you know where to look, history is indicative, I would agree with that. But no London mayoral contest is relevant this time. That’s what makes it such a fantastic betting market as the market/this forum is so doggedly supportive of a +ve Boris outcome, seemingly because the Tories are doing very well on a national level (which I do not doubt)…
511 Scary Sean
Well now that we have a Tory Party [Pretty Boy Dave faction,] a Tory Party [Brownstuff faction,] and a Tory Party [The Man who Never Was Elected faction,] I guess I’m better off being behind the times.
Now that we have a London Mayoral Election whose three main candidates are a sad old has been, a silly billy never was and a pale shadow of an imitation of a ghost candidate, then I guess I’m much better off being behind the times.
I feel dreadfully sorry for all you guys [non-gender] who suck the goolies off your Ugly Beauty Contest favourites. Between them they have the intellect of a rather small mushroom that has failed to make it to the plate and was rejected ‘en usine.’
One longs for the days of RA Butler, Iain McLeod, Anthony Crosland and Nye Bevan. They were intellectual giants and knew how to be politicians; today its all fluff. Such a shame to be governed [as if most people care] by such minor C List celebrities.
Malcolm
As far as I can see there were 1545 posts yesterday, eek!
505 - there is no poll; that’s the point… old comparisons are not relevant this time
516 - I think he’s throwing Obama the perfect chance to speak out strongly against him, condemning him for being stuck in the old arguments. In fact I’d put money on it happening.
When he’s mouthing off on his own, and in complete contrast to Obama’s message, only an idiot would try and conflate the two as being the same. What sort of person would listen to Wright and think ‘hey, he’s got the same ideas as Obama?’. Exactly.
At the moment the right in the US continue to work on the assumption that most voters are stupid, that’s going to backfire. In fact the latest Obama meme plays on that “It’s not about me, It’s about you”. The perfect turnaround.
508 - Re: leaflets.
Reminds me how I learned the hard way in Dublin Central back in 1992, that there a plenty of dogs who just LIVE for some idiot distributing campaign lit to stick his fingers inside the mail slot - ouch!
Also reminds me of the true idiot I met years ago, who was an eager but hapless candidate in an exurban constituency. He bragged about canvassing a house that had prominent sign: NO TRESPASSING, NO SOLICITING - SURVIVORS WILL BE PROSECUTED. My reaction: someone dumb enough to knock on that door was too stupid to be an elected politico . . . and that (apologies to Nick P) is really saying something!
I notice the NC governor endorsement for HRC is being reported widely now as fact across the web. Does anyone know what level of institutional support for her that will bring. If she can keep obama to a single diget lead there that would really help.
Re Wright. Yes I accept it does give Obama a chance to say “you are now a nutter shut up” but anything that brings the story back into the public demain is just bad. bad, bad , bad.
521 - But the key rust belt voters do seem to be a bit thick, frankly. The percentage who still see Obama as Muslim despite all the evidence is ridiculous.
521 - Does appear to cry out for a another “Sister Souljah” noment. Problem is, logical question is, why didn’t you choose another church instead of just sitting in the pews shouting hallelujah.
However, am starting to think that the impact upon average primary voters may be diminishing. By definition, these tend to be regular newspaper readers and new watchers, so most have likley already factored Rev. Wright into their personal calculus.
But may turn out that Socrates - who until today has been pretty confident that Obama was going to win Indiana - is on to something.
However, my personal view - and I’ve been sceptical that Obmama could win the Hoosier state because of it’s demographic - is strangely enough becoming more rather than less optomistic for Obama in Indiana (where I lived & politicked for several years). Because I’m thinking that the positive coverage that he’s received over the last four years in the Chicago media market MAY keep his number up in northwestern Indiana, which is shaping up as a critical region.
But then I thought (as may did) that Obama was going to kick buttt in the Philadelphia suburbs!
Consensus on this site? How boring and unlikely with feisty people like this. Long live diversity.
521. This from the man who has the same slogan as Bob the Builder…..
Obama the consensus builder?
Yes we can
I have utter respect for Rhod sharp on 5 live when it comes to US politics and he has just done 15 minutes at the top of his show on Wright. This is a big story.
I don’t think a single-digit loss is possible for Hillary in NC. AA make up 33% of the voting base.
If hillary wins 60% of whites she would be at around 45%
Maybe Obama Girl will come to the rescue…
530 I suspect you are right but I have seen two polls putting her only 10 behind. I undertsand its an open primary so interesting to see if we get any republican cross over.
532
Operation Chaos? : http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24318982
462. I have come to the conclusion that judges, like doctors, come to develop a god complex. Judges get a real kick out of being able to overrule the government and parliament and like it even more if in doing so they can outrage public opinion. The HRA and other rights based legislation has provided judges with unprecidented power to influence policy and satiate their immense egos and given judges have huge sense of their own importance, complete disdain for parliament and distrust the electorate, this means they are heavily inclined to do anything they can to frustrate the will of our elected representatives.
106. “Adam Boulton would improve the BBC coverage”
Indeed, but I cant see Adam Boulton undergoing BBC ‘re-education’ and the requisite Beeboid brain upgrade/reboot