What do we make of comment number 26?
April 28th, 2008
-
Is this market manipulation or good information?
As site regulars will know the one act that will lead directly to a permanent ban from our discussion threads is to put forward deliberately false information that could move betting markets.
Last night there was a big move back to Boris in the Mayoral betting after somebody calling themself “Don” posted this :-“I’m going to take my courage in my hands and pass on a tip from a pretty reliable source (nb - ‘pretty’ is somewhere between ‘very’ and ‘fairly’)..Tomorrow morning’s YouGov poll will show that Boris’s lead has increased to 11%. I believe what I’ve been told but it doesn’t really resolve anything because one either has faith in YouGov, in which case it’s in the bag for Boris, or one doesn’t, in which it’s going to be a photo-finish. The info is useful because it may move the market when it starts leaking out. I’m telling you guys because I love this site…..”
One of the great strengths of PB is that we do often get good advance information and I do not want the Dons of this world, if genuine, to feel inhibited. My main problem in this case is that “Don” provided what is clearly a phoney email address which means that I cannot correspond with him. If he could post here with an email that I can verify that would be very helpful. No need for any other information.
From the records he made his first appearance on the site at 6.48pm on April 2nd 2008 with this comment about the ICM mayoral poll which proved to be genuine. There was nothing special about his source - he got it from BBC London’s local news programme.
During the following three weeks he has made about 25 comments from two separate computers all fairly sane and rational. One of them was when he tipped us off about the Ken five children by three partners revelation. There is nothing to suggest, however, from his comment record that he has access to confidential information like that in Comment #26.
So there we are. We should know later in the day whether this is true or not. If Don is right and YouGov is reporting an 11% Boris lead then I will be among many who will be piling into the markets once again.
Latest mayoral price are here.
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wait, so if Don’s comment proves false you will ban him? or have you already banned him?
re 1. No - Don has not been banned but his next post needs to contain a genuine email address.
2 Mike
The integrity of this site is essential. So, well done Mike.
Malcolm
2. Boss, you’re position is reasonable. Plus reasonable or no, as benevolent despot your decree is final.
Am curious, however, as to how certain you & other serious betters are, that the post in question actually moved the market?
O/T
This gal is usually pretty smart; yet she wrote something shocking to actual conventionnal wisdom:
“I’m beginning to think Hillary Clinton might pull this off and wrestle the nomination away from Barack Obama. ”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134012
The London Mayoral Race on Betfair:
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/mayor-of-london/next-mayor-of-london
… was around CAD 623,811$ BEFORE the cryptic post of Don.
It is now: CAD 624,949 ; so there is only a difference of +1138.
The Boris odds went from 1.88 to 1.7.
… for a liquidity augmentation of 0.001824%…
It is virtually nothing.
5 Philippe
She cannot beat McCain; she will bring out the red base.
Malcolm
The Pix - Sartorial Commentary
Am not Mr. Blackwell by any means, but . . .
-note that all three are wearing serious dark suits, including Ken, which is a big change for him at least from what I can remember seeing in the past.
-Boris looks like a totally different bloke, thanks no doubt to the Oz Salon! Not only has he lost the weed-wacker hairstyle, but he looks a lot trimmer, thanks to superior British tailoring? Anyway, my point is that Boris at least LOOKS like a mayor as opposed to a comic.
-(not really sartorial commentary) Paddick looks like he just swallowed a bug, and it went down the wrong way, but he’s trying not to let on. Yet on the positive side, his ramrod posture indicates this is one copper who ain’t for bending.
Footnote: why any politico on TV this decade is wearing anything but a solid or regimental tie is beyond me. But must admit that I cut my presidential campaign eyeteeth working for a guy who’s schtick was wearing a bow tie!
BTW, here in the states there is no social downside to wearing a regimental tie without having served in the regiment. As I believe there still is in the UK (please correct me if I’m wrong). Because outside a few bastions of the Eastern Establishment, the whole concept is meaningless over here.
Personally have an entire collection I got years ago. The RN Engineer’s is esp. suitable for high-power business meetings. Must remember to wear it if I’m ever invited to one.
POP QUIZ
What British PM was such an outstanding cricketer, that he when a heckler hurled an egg at him, he caught it?
Clue: his opponent also used heckled eggs to advantage on the stump, but in a different way.
8
Hence OPERATION CHAOS… : http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24318982
10. im guessing John Major?
12 Wrong, though he likely could have caught an egg on the fly if called upon. But don’t think he ever was.
By the way, saw him in person once (in Feb 2003) at distance of approx ten feet. Handsomer than on TV, and gave off nice vibe. Methinks he was the British Gerry Ford in some respects.
OBAMA ON FOX NEWS SUNDAY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOYzCGr9lqc
10 - Sir Alec
15 - Correct!
As for the 14th Mr. Wilson, during the 1966 campaign he was hit with an egg while giving a speech.
He then observed that he had NOT been hit with a egg in 1964. Then he drew the obvious moral: when the Tories were in power, people couldn’t afford to throw eggs!
HW had his faults. But putting hecklers in their place was one of his strong points. Indeed, he really couldn’t give a first-class stump performance WITHOUT a few hecklers!
Interestingly, George Wallace was the same way. During the 1968 campaign, whenever a lefty (often a hippy or close enough) would heckle him, his stock line was:
“Son, take off one of those sandals and I’ll be happy to autograph it for you.”
16 - Excellent titbit SSI
A pop quiz of my own. An apt phrase for this site. Which British Prime Minister said:
There is no gambling like politics.
I suspect no clue is needed.
Very sensible response by Mike to the Don issue, if I may say so. It’s very true that we don’t want genuine tipsters to be inhibited.
If this YouGov poll were true I’d have expected movement to Boris in the betting market by now so I really smell a rat, but we’ll see!
On topic, it seems fairly straight forward to me. Whether or not Don turns out to be right, the fact that he is using a false email address means that he is not exactly being honest and so there are doubts about his intentions.
Since email addresses are not available to the general readership and so cannot betray the identity of those who prefer to remain anonymous, the only person he can be seeking to deceive is Mike.
My concern is that if ‘Don’ were seeking to make some money on manipulating the betting markets in this way then he this is exactly the way he would do it; join under a false identity, make reasoned and reasonable posts for a few weeks then ‘leak’ the sort of information at the right time to seriously affect the market and so take advantage of the resultant moves.
As I see it Mike has nothing to lose here by banning the false address. If Don is a genuine poster then he will have a areal email address he can use and there is no reason why he should not do so. By banning his email address Mike is not forcing him off the site, just forcing him to follow the rules.
Charles Fox? The bookies loved him almost as much as John Wilkes!
Cameron’s just been inerviewed by Balir apologist Fiona Phillips. Starts off by calling him rude. How can such a woman be allowed to conduct an interview like this?
There was a “pretty” useless opinion poll published in the Scotland on Sunday yesterday. In fact it is not only useless, but downright bizarre. I cannot recall an opinion poll before that has simply consisted of a series of playground insults directed at one politician:
- … do you agree that Mrs MacPherson is conceited?
- … do you agree that Mr Millar is sexist?
- … do you agree that SoS journalists are despicable, arrogant, patronising, conceited BritNat pond-plankton who are out of touch with people’s concerns?
It would have been a bit more useful if it had been comparative: comparing attitudes of the general public to Salmond vs Brown, vs Alexander, vs Goldie or vs Stephen. But on its own it is meaningless.
The pdf link is the one worth a quick glance, but if you are looking for a case study in how to spin positive poll findings in the most negative manner possible, then read the SoS article by Kenny Farquharson and Murdo MacLeod.
The one thing that I do find a little interesting is that Alex Salmond is doing surprisingly well these days among the ABC1 white collar voters. For example 82% of respondents who expressed an opinion agreed with the statement “Alex Salmond stands up for Scotland.”, however a whopping 90% of AB respondents agreed with the statement. I would absolutely love to see the results of that “stands up for Scotland” question asked of other senior Scottish politicians like Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling or Des Browne
Conversely, Mr Salmond is doing more poorly among the youngest voters: 18 - 24. Traditionally the young were always thought of as the Scottish National Party’s greatest asset. But I suppose that we are now seen as being the new ‘Establishment’! You will not find many SNP activists complaining about that particular turnaround.
pdf file:
http://www2.jpscotland.co.uk/scotlandonsunday/AlexSalmond.pdf
SoS article: ‘Scots give Salmond the thumbs-up’:
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Scots-give-Salmond-the-thumbsup.4024362.jp
(By the way, the rumour-mill is still going strong that The Scotsman/SoS did actually conduct a Scottish voting intention poll 3 weeks ago, but have chosen not to publish the results. Not hard to guess why. However, I do not want anyone to bet their hard-earned cash based on perhaps baseless rumours, spread by me or anyone else.)
that’s Baroness Phillips to you
it only provokes sympathy for the interviewee when a presenter acts like that.
Fiona Phillips is a well known nuLabour supporter. She has a column in the Mirror which often praises Labour.
Oddly her rival on the GMTV sofa is married to a former Labour SPAD.
Just a suggestion: It might not be a bad idea to stick a link next to the e-mail box on the comment form to a page explaining how you intend to use the e-mail addresses you’re getting people to type in.
(Someone more familiar with UK law could probably confirm or deny this, aren’t you required to do something like this under the Data Protection Act anyhow?)
Without some kind of explanation about how their personal information is going to be used, people have a very good reason to put in a phony e-mail address.
I am registered with the Data Protection Act for various company and personal projects and as far as I can see Mike would have no problems with asking for the email addresses as long as they are being used for verification purposes alone and not being stored for some other use later.
One fairly simple way of sorting this out would be to make it necessary to confirm the email address the first time it is used. This could be completely automated as it is with many sites and hads become a fairly accepted part of internet activity. Certainly most businesses use this. Any consequent visits would not require reconfirmation as long as the same email address was being used.
re 16. But Wilson was once found lost for words by a heckle during the 1964 election campaign. During a speech in a Medway town which was being shown live on TV he asked the question - “…and why do I emphasise the role of the Royal Navy”. This produce an immediate response from a man in the audience who shouted “Because you are in Chatham”.
At the time this was the home of a big naval dockyard and the area’s biggest employer.
When does the YouGov info. usually become available? An absence of E-Mail address could be because he is at risk giving the figures, but somebody like that is not to be trusted anyway.
The SNP has published a pdf file with a table and graph showing the findings of every Scottish independence referendum voting intention poll published since May 2007 (’multi-option’ polls are excluded, ie. it is only the straight Yes/No polls).
None of this information is new: it has all been in the public domain, available to anyone who is interested. However, it is interesting to have a look at the graph, for polling nerds like myself:
pdf file:
http://www.snp.org/files/Independence%20Polls%20since%20May%2007.pdf
accompanying press release: ‘Surge in support for Independence’
http://www.snp.org/node/13748
I’d be very (pleasantly) surprised if Boris has got 11 points in it, although worried that the headlines that might generate could be counter-productive.
If the piles of ‘time for a change’ voters out there think that change might happen without them bothering to vote we could be in trouble.
6) Phillipe, deciding a move isn’t relevant by dividing the traded volume in a few hours by the total volume of the lifetime of the contract? I’m sure if you think hard you’ll know why that doesn’t work.
Does anyone know how the postal votes might be going in the Mayoral elections?
33. I’m sure there’s some insider info out there somewhere
33, 34 - Hence the move to Ken.
Note Betfair is down this morning site upgrade due to be back up at 11 but they often run late .
35. More ramping…
Meanwhile, more “patriot” candidate news:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article3828122.ece
I wobn’t comment on the current allegations, but note his previous offence. This is getting like the Hell’s Angels, where you had to commit a crime to qualify as a full member. Some other examples (from Wikipedia) which may be helpful to people of all the mainstream parties fighting local elections against BNP candidates:
In 1998, Nick Griffin was convicted of violating section 19 of the Public Order Act 1986, relating to incitement to racial hatred. He received a nine-month prison sentence, suspended for two years, and was fined £2,300.
Kevin Scott, the BNP’s North East regional organiser, has two convictions for assault and using threatening words and behaviour.[
Joe Owens, now expelled but previously a BNP candidate in Merseyside and former bodyguard to Nick Griffin, has served eight months in prison for sending razor blades in the post to Jewish people and another term for carrying CS gas and knuckledusters.
Tony Wentworth, former BNP student organiser, was convicted alongside Mr Owens for assaulting demonstrators at an anti-BNP event in 2003.
Colin Smith, BNP South East London organiser has 17 convictions for burglary, theft, stealing cars, possession of drugs and assaulting a police officer.
In October 2006, Robert Cottage, a BNP candidate earlier in the year, was arrested under the Explosives Act on suspicion of possessing chemicals that may be capable of making an explosion. Cottage was also reported as having possessed the largest quantity of explosives of its type ever found in this country.
38. I never realised the BNP had criminal and violent tendencies - thanks so much Nick.
Mike- to be honest I think you have been a bit harsh to try and expose Don before there is clear confirmation of this poll today, and if not as Don suggests, then to try and get him to explain himself.
36 great timing for a site upgrade! just as an eagerly awaited poll comes out
38 nick, smearing patriots generally with the criminal acts of individuals is poor form. Perhaps you’d agree as a member of Liebour?
I don’t know the chronology, but does anyone know if Don’s tip about the five kids thing happened before or after it hit the news stands?
Meanwhile over on Bloomberg all does not appear to well between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor if one believes what is written
April 28 (Bloomberg) — Gordon Brown faces his first electoral test as prime minister on May 1 with local elections in England and Wales. The omens aren’t good.
Brown’s Labour Party has trailed the opposition Conservatives in polls all year. Nurses, teachers and railroad workers have struck for higher wages. House prices have begun falling. A revolt by Labour lawmakers last week forced him to compromise on a tax plan.
Even advisers running his local-council campaigns say voters in southern England, who put Labour’s Tony Blair in office in 1997, are shifting back to the Conservatives. While some Brown allies dismiss the likely mid-term kicking as routine, others including Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling warn that the prime minister still hasn’t found a clear message 10 months into the job.
“There is a very good chance that Labour will come third” behind both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in this week’s vote, says Stephen Driver, author of “New Labour,” a study of Blair’s leadership. “Along with everything else, this will be seen as a government which is no longer in control of events.”
re Tyson - This initially is not about Don but about trying to explain what is happening to the betting. The fact that post 26 had been published and people had responded to it was a major element last night. Punters who were not following the thread should be aware of this element.
After much thought the only way I could highlight the piece without giving credence to it was in the way I did.
Just over a fortnight ago I received an email from somebody I had not heard of before and who had never posted using that that address. It told me what turned out to be the exact detail of the Observer MORI mayoral poll. What was quite useful was that he highlighted the 6% Boris lead which the Observer tried to bury.
Because it had not gone public I felt it unwise to make reference to it on the site. If the same person gave me information again I might take a different view.
Ken gets the support of the, ‘City and big business’ errr that’s Red Ken, who’d have thought it!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/047fe17e-146f-11dd-a741-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
46. voodoo
Nick Palmer. No comment on the Levy book then?
48. He is only telling us what we know already
48: In general I don’t comment on comments by people who have books just coming out!
[46] Err… during 8 years as Mayor “Red Ken” has never once been attacked by the City for acting contrary to its interests, nor have the Tories in this campaign at any time suggested that his Mayoralty has damaged the City. And they see Boris as an unknown quantity? Hey, so do half his own party!
Frankly, the City will live with whoever is Mayor… even our own John Loony…
Mike!! See your favourite politician has a spread in the Mail!!
http://tinyurl.com/5ht4ru
Makes yer proud to be British (choke) donit!!
45- Mike- you obviously have considered this, it would be nice to think that this site can support anonymous posters who have their fingers very much on the pulse, but with no smoking gun back to them (ie an email address).
If Don is a ramper he needs to be banned, end of. If not we might have ourselves a very useful yougov contact. Today will tell us.
By the way I put some more on Boris last night without seeing Don’s post. I just think that anything over 1.7’s on betfair is incredible value.
If anyone is feeling”wobbly” about Boris the recite this mantra and feel better.
“It’s The Sun wot might win it for Johnson”
It’s The Sun wot might win it for Johnson
By Jean Eaglesham, Chief Political Correspondent
Published: April 23 2008 04:04 | Last updated: April 23 2008 04:04
Boris Johnson has been endorsed by The Sun newspaper, marking the first time Britain’s biggest-selling daily tabloid has backed the Tories since 1992.
In a move the Conservative leadership hopes reflects a wider shift in political fortunes, the Murdoch-owned Sun on Tuesday threw its full weight behind the Tory candidate for London mayor. Giving a front-page plug to his election pledges, it hailed Mr Johnson as a “new and fresh champion for London”. The paper attacked Ken Livingstone for having “run out of puff”, saying the Labour incumbent’s campaign appeared “stale”.
52- very naughty coldstone. Our host had a dinner engagement with said politician (stretching the definition slightly).
50: Not even about the ‘quality’ of people who had power and influence in your party.
38 Nick, you must be getting even more worried about the BNP taking increasing numbers of votes from disenchanted former Labour supporters. Perhaps you should try addressing the growing concerns of your former voters instead of constantly raking up old criminal convictions that we all know about anyway.That old smear tactic doesn’t seem to be working for you anymore.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3828387.ece
We all know that postal voting fraud tends to favour Labour and should favour KEn in the Mayoral elections. What adjustments should be made to take this into account when looking at the opinion polls?
No good prodding Nicholas Palmer. He has had in breakfast - and isn’t biting.
I met some Jewish friends in London yesterday and they were ambivalent about Ken because of his “concentration camp” jibe to the Evening Standard reporter as well as the links with prominent Muslims. I am certain that Ken will not be their second choice and it will probably be Boris.
They also made the point that the size of London’s Jewish community is considerably larger than the 150k in the 2001 census. She ticked the box on ethnicity but he didn’t.
My guess is that the Jewish community has a much higher turnout rate than many others.
57. Indeed, and the fact that large numbers of voters are willing to vote for the kinds of dubious characters Nick ‘identifies’ says a great deal about how New Labour’s reputation has sunk - for many, they are now seen as on a level with common villains.
I see Gordon Brown has bottled it again today.
Both Cameron and Clegg have recently appeared on Vicky Derbyshire’s Radio 5 phone-in to face unscripted questions from members of the public. The Brown camp were umming and aahing as to whether Gordo would appear but this morning Jack Straw has been sent in his place. Courage my @rse!
On another note, I see Frank Field has gone quiet after he was going round last week assuring everybody that Brown had promised him that all 5.3 million of those who lost out over the 10p rate abolition would be fully compensated and that this would be backdated for every one of them. Now it’s clear that he was lied to and was (unwittingly?) doing the governments dirty work for them, old Frank has gone to ground.
Has the poor old fellow been for a walk in the woods or is he safely esconsed in the bunker?
Re: Don.
No one is anonymous on the internet. If you don’t leave an email address your IP address is still visible to the site owner.
You can see the data you are broadcasting here by going here:
http://ipswift.com/
Note - even your Internet Service Provider and computer type is visible.
62. Did they make any comment about not getting Gordon, implied or otherwise.
62. According to Oborne Field and Brown have kissed [or at least hugged] and made up.
I think it is too near the locals to cause any more problems. He feels he has done what he can in the current time frame.
63 That’s incredible! Thanks, Charles.
65, they can’t have kissed because GORDON ISN’T GAY!
Hmm. Missing Radio 5 before locals isn’t exactly leading from the front. Mind you, I doubt he’d be able to get away with doing the same with Paxman and QT before the general election.
5. Think the writer is using the Florida and Michigan voting figures, which as we all know cannot be relied on as Obama did not campaign there, and was not even on the Michigan ballot.
Secondly there are other primaries after Kentucky where Obama will probably score heavily such as Oregon.
If you listen to her on CBS panel each week it is possible to view her as a New York leaning Clintonite, perhaps I am being unfair.
As I posted yesterday there are 408 delegate votes left, Obama claims that he needs 295 total delegates to reach the 2025. He will get 180 - 200 at least of the 408, that leaves say 100 super delegates out of the remaining 300. Commonsense says that he will get that one third figure.
He is still ahead.
If the Michigan and Florida delegations are seated albeit in a reduced capacity he will still have another 40 or so to add on.
My feelings are that in logical terms Clintons odds should lengthening. The problem is that the media wants a continuing contest and in my view is avoiding the reality in the figures.
38
If you hadn’t let the issue get out of hand,been honest with the public the BNP would not have the prominence that it now has.
The BNP must be delighted at how effectively you have been able to swell their numbers.
Nick as far as I am concerned you can draw attention to the nasty things done by BNP members as often as you like!
Re Don and his “leak”: I provide information , You spread rumours, He ramps - I think that is how it goes!
59: “He has had in breakfast - and isn’t biting.” Er…do you need another coffee yourself, Sally?
Bottling Five Live is perfectly in keeping with Brown’s character. Its 11 years since this man appeared on Question Time. How he gets away with being such a coward, I have no idea?
Anyway, not long to go now before we get that final YouGov poll!
59. Did Nick Palmer have Cherrios for breakfast? As for the BNP the only thing which splits faster is the Trots. As for Brown, I dread to think how he would react if Fiona Philips described him as ‘rude’, the mobile phones would have been bouncing off the walls.
64 Sally, I don’t know how they covered Brown’s non-appearance on radio 5 this morning as I only caught a snippet of it but I heard Vicky Derbyshire last week saying that both Cameron and Clegg already had appeared but that Brown still hadn’t confirmed whether or not he would be doing likewise. She appeared to be giggling while saying this and I got the clear impression that she was being disrespectful to our Dear Leader
It’s 9.45am and we must be very close to publication time for any poll which may or may not appear in today’s Evening Standard.
71. My caffeine levels are fine, but thank you for asking.
Any exuberance on my part is a natural high brought about by having a dynamic courageous handsome articulate party leader.
65 Frank Field was either completely conned by Brown over the 10p rate or he has sold his @rsehole back to the government. In either event the “man of principle” doesn’t come out of this very well, which is a great shame as he appeared to be one of the few Labour MP’s with any principles left.
I always had you down as a Consevative, Sally!
76 Have you defected to the LibDems , Sally ?
76. Dynamic Dave was on my local radio this morning and came across very well. The contrast between him and Brown is enormous. That decision by Conservative members to elect Cameron as leader is looking more inspired than ever right now.
I confess to being dissappointed in him myself. But I am giving him time and the benefit of the doubt for old times sake at the moment. I suspect he is doing the same with Brown.
We will both be cross if we are wrong.
68 - From Wikipedia on Eleanor Clift the writer of the article, it pits her assertions into perspective -
“Her views are generally regarded as being politically liberal. During the Clinton Administration, she was kiddingly referred to as Eleanor “Rodham” Clift or Eleanor “Rodham Clifton,” because of her fierce defense of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bill Clinton.”
No surprises there.
Election Inspection looks at why Hillary is struggling in North Carolina :
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/04/27/north-carolina-clinton-is-not-going-to-get-single-digits-here/#comments
I am astonished at all the info on http://ipswift.com/
However, it is not completely accurate. It locates me in USA (presumably because I use aol).
80 Cameron is an able and articulate politician but the main difference between him and Brown is that Cameron is clearly normal while Brown is clearly not. In fact Brown just gets weirder and weirder, more than confirming Campbells, unheeded, warning about him.
Yeah, being a member of the human race certainly helps.
78. 79 Am of course talking about my opinion of our chap, not your blokes opinion of himself.
[But pity the poor Labour Party, no room for jokes or confusion there!]
84 use something like
http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-snoop.cgi
if you’re worried
How true this is even today !!
“It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes.” (Josef Stalin)
Believe it, suckers.
81 Are you referring to Frank Field or to David Cameron?
Yikes! I’m really feeling the heat here - Mike checking my IP address(es), threats of being banned, etc. - but I can’t complain. All I can say is that if I wasn’t completely anonymous, I would never have posted the tip. The only person who could get on my trail and expose me is Sean T, and I think he’s a man of his word. I can assure all of you that I am acting in good faith.
Even if my tip turns to suet (and I don’t think it will) I’ll come on here, say sorry and take my punishment like a man.
re 84. My Virgin cable IP address correctly locates me near Bedford. For my other net connectionsit had me in Reading and Rugely.
Thanks Don. We wait with interest. Alas Betfair is out all morning for technical maintenance.
91.
Oh well, if you are a pal of Sean T then that’s all right then
Oh…Frank. Dave has never failed to impress.
I am sorry if the subject of my posts seems vague to some….but the differences between the oh so Good [Dave] the just plain Bad [Clegg] and the Oh so Ugly seem crystal clear to me.
@91:
On the plus side, if you’re right, you’ll be quicly elevated to new PBC Messiah…
Democrat voter registration looks to undercut the GOP :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/27/AR2008042702272.html?hpid=topnews
@94:
“Pal of” Sean?
I reckon he’s just another one of Sean’s rapidly proliferating split personae. First Tom, now Don.
93 Do you know when the poll is likely to be out, Mike?
95. Eeeewww can I choose. Please pretty please.
Tories are the best at ‘punishment’. Everyone knows that.
91- Don- this is really intriguing. Your bond with the thriller writer seanT. Anonymous addresses, and ground breaking tips. Hiiden handshakes, and uncoverable trails.
Methinks we have our very own pbCOM Don Vinci Poll in the making!!
@99:
The Standard normally starts showing up on the streets of that London around 11am.
Fastest fingers first, chaps.
93. Mike - “Alas Betfair is out all morning for technical maintenance.”
Spreadfair was down nearly all morning too. Back up now:
Ken 15.8 - 17.0
Boris 18.2 - 19.4
Brian 0.2 - 0.4
next UK GE:
Con 320.0 - 323.0 seats
Lab 263.0 - 264.0 seats
LD 42.1 - 48.0 seats
SNP 8.5 - 14.0 seats
PC 3.0 - 4.0 seats
In previous weeks we found out about the poll by 11am
I wonder If Nick Palmer is one of those Labour MP’s….
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23480830-details/Labour+MPs++warn+embattled+Brown+to+stay+off+local+election+campaign+trail/article.do
That should read 91 not 95!
re 91. Was it you with Sean at Spearmint Rhino?
102, except on Saturday evening about 6pm when I couldn’t find one anywhere!
91 Don. You do realize that the punishment will include four weeks over at ConHome, proof reading Mark Senior’s bar charts and massaging both John Prescott’s ego and Nick Soames stomach !!
89. But Labour are now run by Mr. Bean, not Stalin.
77: As previously noted, many Tories only love you as people of principle as long as you are saying something that suits them.
96. Will will have to remane him Brian if he is wrong.
‘He is not the Messiah. He’s a very naughty boy.’
109.
How about Dewey cataloging Andrea’s archives too?
@111:
And, of course, that makes us ENTIRELY UNIQUE in politics.
Pshaw.
re 105 I very much doubt it as I don’t think Broxtowe is having any elections this year.
@109:
“Mark Senior’s Bar Charts”
I find that phrase more terrifying than perhaps I should.
I tend to believe Don is posting in good faith. Of course he could be having us on and yet get lucky re YouGov. Or he could be genuine but his source proves to be inaccurate. All very interesting.
Two clarifications: (1) I don’t know Sean. In fact, I’ve never met him. There is, however, a link through a mutual associate; (2) I am not regularly in receipt of polls in advance of publication, I’m afraid. Very occasionally I hear things of gambling interest to PBers and last night offered a tip in a spirit of solidarity with those who value this fantastic site as much as I do.
111 Indeed. It was amusing to see so many tory posters convinced that Clegg was making a big strategic error in pointing out that Gordon Brown was “doing the tories job for them” in raising the starting rate of tax from 10% ro 20%. (Not that I am expecting you to agree!)
111. Really Nick. The way Brown has used the office of Prime Minister to outmanoeuvre the Tories rather take care of the country, on matters such as terror!
Thin ice alert!
46/51 re “The City Supports Ken” If you did a poll that was just city trading floors - eg the bulk of city workers - you would get a similar figure for Boris as you would for Obama among African Americans..
Re YouGov poll - I bet it is neck and neck, like in 2004.
@119:
It wasn’t a strategic error, it was a tactical error. Unfortunately for the Lib Dems, it hints at a strategic error that the Dems are likely to make repeatedly in the 2010 election, once again missing a vital chance to become the official opposition party due to poor strategic planning.
119 So many Tory posters…big strategic error… you are doing a Clegg and building the numbers and ‘your part’.
On the main topic, and ‘Don’. Have I missed something? isn’t this site all about passing tips and info around that may or may not help making betting decisions?
I can’t see what Don has done that is any different to dozens of posts here every day.
I often wish that I had never used my own name the first time I posted, but now I have I am stuck with it.
@125:
Mike didn’t say he had done anything wrong.
However, spreading false information to drive markets is a criminal offense (Market abuse, Markets in financial instruments directive, et al.), and if Mike suspects that a poster is indulging in illegal acts through PBC, I can’t see how he *wouldn’t* ban them.
126) “However, spreading false information to drive markets is a criminal offense”.
Martin, political betting is entirely unregulated. There are no criminal offenses being committed here. Check your facts.
125 - It is rather a different thing for somebody to say he has privileged access to polling data from a reputable company and to publish it than for you, say, to claim things are looking rosy for the Tories in Totnes. The former is likely to have a big impact on betting markets whereas the latter, frankly, isn’t.
@127:
I’m afraid not. Mifid makes no distinction on the underlying instrument when it comes to market abuse provisions.
104- and betfair is down until 11.00, and the standard’s poll, due out at 11.00. And it is April 28th- take off 17, and we have 11.
11/11/11- the sign of the beast in ancient aramaic.
Hmm- the Don Vinci Poll takes root.
On this business of Cameron being “normal” - well, he hasn’t spent eleven days in government, let alone eleven years. Brown was seen as fairly normal in the mid-1990s - driven, yes, but no more so than Blair or Mandelson. One reason people like John Major - irrespective of his politics - is that he wasn’t psychologically stressed out by high office - also true of Ken Clarke.
Anyway, time to repeat my predictions for you all to tease me about afterwards. First ballot: Boris 40%, Ken 27%. (Second ballot changes the gap only +/- 1%). BNP sadly to gain three Assembly seats (feel surer about this since Nick Palmer’s post.)
And a new one. Boris to win a second term as an independent. Rationale: he’ll behave sensibly in office for his first year or so, discover he likes it and so carries on being sensible. By late 2011 Cameron government not popular in the Wen (and sensible Boris not popular with it, either) so he bolts his party - who have no strong candidate to oppose him, neither do Labour (Ken being no longer interested).
126, 127: No criminal offenCes maybe, but certainly an abuse of the English language.
A reliable source tells me Boris is gonna be 9 points behind in the YouGov poll.
Actually I haven’t got a clue, but anyone who is daft enough to believe what a random stranger posts on a blog deserves all they get.
I have not been bowled over with the Boris campaign or his abilities but I am still sticking with my positions on him. My rationale is as follows, the Conservative machine in the outer zones has developed significantly since last election due to council gains, Boris has a personality large enough to get his voters out and the weather is forecast to be wet. As with the Scottish elections I see Lib Dems will split evenly between the candidates so whoever is leading on first votes will win it.
(One final point is that Cameron is backing Boris while Gordon is not out on the streets backing Ken)
Following up Stuarts comments, we have a strange situation in Scotland where the greatest supporters of Alex Salmond ABC1s are the least fond of independence. Scotland is slowly splitting into a SNP/Con alliance versus the Lab/Lib Dems. Could this have a wider impact at the next Westminster election when the SNP MPs help keep Labour out of power?
123. The Lib Dems cannot ’strategically plan’ for which of the other two main parties is the most incompetent at any particular time.
130. That’s just what I was thinking
The ‘New York Times’ reports that Obama looks to change emphasis as campaigning starts in earnest in Indiana :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/us/politics/28obama.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
O/T - Some new primary prices up at ladbrokes.
Indiana
8/11 Clinton
Evs Obama
North Carolina Handicap
5/6 Obama (+16)
5/6 Clinton (-16)
usual links should be available via the pb.com home page.
@132:
I think Mr. Checker’s being a bit over-pedantic here. The copy of the OED I have laying around suggests that offense and offence are both acceptable variants.
Though it notes that “offense” is archaic.
138 bah! handicap should be the other way around!
129. MIFID did expand what is covered in terms of financial products but I’m not convinced this went as far as political betting.
135 They can plan to be less incompetent than the other two.
Kiss of death reported in the Telegraph:
“Mr Mandelson said it was “possible” for Labour to win the next election but it had to “get back to basics” in terms of its convictions, self-confidence and unity.”
I make it six to four on that Don is genuine. Any takers?
143 “Things can only get..b..b…back to basics”.
@141:
Being as it’s an EU directive, I bet there’s not a person on Earth who knows its full provisions.
But I am lead to believe that MIFID best execution and market abuse rules apply to all markets, regardless of underlying instrument, including sports and political betting.
Well for whats worth, I believe “Don” is posting here genuinely. That doesn’t mean what his source told him is right, but I don’t think he is here to decieve anybody.
129) So what defines a market then mate? Are you saying Mifid applies to tomatoes?
Don’t you remember the Daily Mirror article about “BT Engineers” who were working out results of reality tv shows and betting on them?
Do you remember their trial at the Old Bailey? - no, I don’t either.
@144:
How do we decide whether or not he is? Even if he’s wrong, doesn’t mean his tip wasn’t forwarded in good faith.
139 Isn’t offense American football terminology?
139 Pedantry is my middle name.
150 - American Football? Which brings us back to “patriots”. Argh!
@148:
No, tomatoes aren’t covered by MiFID, because tomatoes aren’t a financial instrument. Tomato futures, OTOH…
Political Betting is clearly a financial instrument, and therefore MiFID’s market abuse rules apply to the markets.
146. http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/public/market_abuse.pdf
This is an FSA factsheet on it and whilst it may not be quite clear exactly what is covered, I think that we can safely say that political betting isn’t.
125 Marcus. “I often wish that I had never used my own name the first time I posted, but now I have I am stuck with it.”
Torbay Bugle - 29th April 2008 - ‘Tory Candidate Stuck With Own Name Shock’ …. Specualtion he wanted to be called Emma …. Denies he’s a ‘Torbay Lady’ …. developing ….
http://www.partypeoplenortheast.co.uk/27091.jpg
137- psychologically JackW- I get the feeling that Obama’s team think that Hillary is unbeatable; a kind of Rocky character, “takes a lickin but keeps on tickin” who ultimately prevails
In this link he refers to himself as the underdog. Strange choice of words considering his position.
Clinton takes Indiana (5 points plus), reduces Obama to single digit leaads in NC (8 points less), storms Kentucky. That is one huge counter punch that the Clinton team could give.
If Don is right will it be 11 gloomy Ken’s or 11 happy Boris’s?
@154:
MiFID came after the market abuse directive, and I was under the impression extended it too.
You’re right, it’s not clear though. Dammit, where’s a Eurocrat when you need one?
134
“One final point is that Cameron is backing Boris while Gordon is not out on the streets backing Ken”
Surely given Gordon’s track record, that is an advantage for Ken?
153) “Political Betting is clearly a financial instrument”
If that were so, rules like “best execution” would apply wouldn’t they? Do you think bookmakers practice best execution? Do you think they have to undertake mandatory trade reporting to the FSA?
re 157. Indeed - it is all ready to go.
@160:
Spreadfair certainly has a MiFID compliance document on its website. I’d check the others, but my corporate firewall thinks that accessing betting sites from a trading floor is naughty. I tend to agree.
36 - I have often thought it a shame that a market on Betfair maintenance over-runs isn’t possible. I imagine “11:00.01 or later” would be about 1/20.
155. Damn, Jack. You got me.
I’d have chosen a name like ‘Prescilla’, too.
162) Martin, Spreadfair also covers underlying instruments that ARE financials - like trading the FTSE.
Boris Johnson futures don’t count.
@165:
Oh, I see.
Well, being as I work for an investment bank, I should be able to find a MiFID expert without too much difficulty. I now have a mission.
134. jono - “Scotland is slowly splitting into a SNP/Con alliance versus the Lab/Lib Dems.”
… and here are those despicable ‘Tartan Tories’ at work again
‘New era of the council house is launched by Sturgeon’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2227553.0.New_era_of_the_council_house_is_launched_by_Sturgeon.php
Maggie Thatcher will be spinning in her….. Oh, wait a min