To me this is the number that clinches it
April 29th, 2008
Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate
Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race.
And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above - what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson. This could be critical because he is not going to win if he is not retaining the Tory vote.
At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.
Well the figure above confirms that Johnson is retaining 87% of the Tory vote - a proportion that has hardly moved since the campaign started. He is also picking up one fifth of those who have at sometime told YouGov that the party they identify with most is Labour.
The Tory vote is significant because traditionally it is more likely to turn out out. In my view Johnson is going to do it and current odds seem very attractive.
In the betting the money has continued to go on Johnson who is now at 1/2.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Money by punters generally, or your money?
What would you value them with now with all the info we have?
Anything above 0.3/1 seems great value.
My comfort level on this race is to stake about £3000. I’m just about there.
My guess is that on Thursday Johnson could tighten to 1/10
It would be surprising if Browis did not win, when looking at your breakdown of the figures - good stuff!
The LD’s seem to be doing very poorly on the London election front. Just goes to show how they can be squeesed out by polarising personalities. Maybe the LD’s would have more to fear if the next GE had been Blair vs. Cameron rather than Brown vs. Cameron.
Nick Clegg seems to have been very passive in his support for Paddick. Maybe Clegg is being a bit more reserved as he has been very badly portrayed in the press as accident prone. Nick Clegg does seem to be apping Neil Kinnock!
Casino looks like he won’t have to eat his Trilby on Friday now!
Mike: How long does it take for London to declare a Mayoral result? What sort of time should we expect the 1st indications?
3) Martin Day. Are you going to do the Clegg = Kinnock thing EVERY day? I don’t think its gonna catch on FWIW.
O/T - Do we get PMQs tomorrow?
I think that this is a welcome divergence in partisanship:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7372823.stm
Surprised by paddick and livingstones jibes as i thought they were for London working together? Obviously Ken only believes in London working together if it is in his benefit!!!!
If Londoners choose Boris as Mayor this week, I would be glad to serve in that capacity.”
Mr Livingstone was said to be “furious” about the episode. It is against Labour rules to endorse opposition candidates, but Labour chiefs said they were “relaxed” about the visit and a party spokesman said Ms Hoey would face no disciplinary action.
Can’t discipline her cos you’re weak, weak, weak.
What convinced me Mike was that a majority, when asked, said it thought Johnson was serious enough to be mayor, that he now leads in every age group, and that the second preferences appear to cancel each other out. Most go to Paddick or Green/UKIP/BNP, while Johnson and Livingstone get about 15% apiece. My residual concern is that Livingstone - on the basis of the past two sub-40% turnouts - manages to mobilise his ethnic organised vote while Tories and non-organised ethnics stay at home.
3. The problem for Paddick is that he has no track record as a Liberal Democrat. Boris and Ken are clearly of their parties’ core - whatever the ups and downs of their careers - but Brian comes across as someone standing under a flag of convenience. Not something British voters are used to.
CR 4. It will be late afternoon/ early evening. We should get an indication from the GLA results which will come through first.
BTW CR - I tried to contact you by email and the message bounced. Could you provide me with a valid email address please?
I am taking part in a discussion on the polling with Simon Mayo on 5Live at 1.40pm
5. Every day? More like every ten minutes. I wonder whether he’s making any concessions to creative thought at all, or just wanders round mumbling “Nick Clegg… Neil Kinnock” to everyone who passes him in the street.
Livingstone is in no position to criticise Hoey for failing to act in accordance party rules. Remember how he became mayor in the first place.
Mike, do you think ICM do not want to take the risk of doing a final Mayoral poll and it coming out at odds with YouGov? Is this an admission they think YouGov is leading the way in this particular conest?
I still worry that “postal votes” see Ken home.
John Kellet: yes indeed. I dare say someone will bring up London.
Kate Hoey hasn’t endorsed Boris, so hasn’t broken any rules. As I said on the last thread, I’m relaxed about this sort of thing and think there ought to be more of it in both directions in British politics.
I see EDW reports that the voters are struggling to understand the ‘complicated’ Mayoral electoral system. Like it’s hard to count up to 2, right? Sigh, shows the struggle for us PR supporters.
@15:
Don’t worry. I’m sure CCHQ has a team of crack lawyers on standby to handle any postal vote ‘irregularities’.
10. Very interesting point. We haven’t any tradition of outsiders stepping straight into front-line politics a la Eisenhower or Berlusconi, except for the wartime businessmen-ministers and a few other business figures who’ve sat in the Lords.
14 - I would guess they have not been commissioned to do a poll. Why do one if you aren’t going to get paid for it?
5. To turn it on its head why do you not think that Nick Clegg is not like Neil Kinnock.
I think that Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock because both leaders seem to have shot themselves in the foot in the publics eyes as leaders on their first impression with the public. The LD split over the EU treaty, swiftly followed by 30 S***’s comment is as bad as Kinnocks misjudgement in falling into the sea
and the miners strike position. You lot just have not clicked it yet! If you don’t believe the Clegg/ Kinnock maybe you could see Clegg as being a lot less dynamic version of william hague. Baseball cap and section 28 or whatever it was - to be fair to hague though comparing Clegg with him is a diservice to Hague as Hague was very good but way, way too early in the job.
The split of London voters appears to be 41% Labour 28% Conservative and 10% Lib Dem (79% in total). Are you not worried that in the polling booth Labour voters will actually give their vote to Ken?
If someone votes 1, 2, 3 in the first column will that be counted - It does clearly show the voters intentions.
If so, this, and other people who haven’t understood the odd system of voting in columns, will slow the count somewhat.
11. Mike - Thanks.
Since I started posting here, over a year ago, I’ve always used a fake email address.
Is that a problem?
If so, I’m happy to stop posting if you don’t want me to - I don’t really want to reveal who I am!
Reference back to my discussion on the previous thread with Dan on poverty. Have a look at this blog from Anthony Painter of Tribune in the Indy. Something for both of us, but supports the view that ignoring Cameron’s words on poverty would be a mistake.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/04/anthony-painter.html
19. For the glory of getting it right?
Several points Mike:
YOUGUV is the pollster consistently showing the biggest Tory lead. I know they claim to be the most accurate, but wouldn’t taking an average of the different polls be better? As for Boris retaining tory support, well that has a big effect on the headline figures as they are. And doing better than Norris doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win. Ken is also well ahead on Lib Dem switchers.
Johnson could win, but the odds are too short.
Mike I know that the results are not being counted till the Friday but will there be any exit polls that you know of taking place on Thursday with the results being released that night?
21. Presumably those without a party ID aren’t included in the split above, but obviously comprise quite a big voting block.
OT. I couldn’t help but laugh when I just saw that Inside Track was going bust, thinking at last, no more of those annoying Buy To Let radio ads, but then I thought of all those poor sods they’d ripped off whose lives for the next few years are going to be very difficult. Tough times I’m afraid.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/apr/29/buyingtolet.mortgages
re 11. It is a rule of the site that to post here you need to provide a valid email address. This is not for publication and is used only if I need to get in touch with you as I did do last night.
10. I actually think Paddick is a good candidate, whilst not a natural LD i hope Paddick stays in politics as he is not scared to face down the established players! He has a seriousness that i think is good, authorative, no - nonsense. He has that other quality you get in the vast majority of ex-coppers - you can believe him.
I actually think the LD’s have not made the best of Paddick but it maybe that he has been crowded out by the two estblished players.
Casino Royale - You could always create a googlemail email address which didn’t include your name.
Are you very, very famous?
Just to add that this is from one poll showing a big Boris lead. No other poll has done so and so the probabbility of it being a rogue is high. And the good chance of a higher turnout makes predictions all the more difficult.
11 Get an anonymous email from MSN or yahoo, at least Mike can contact you and you can still remain unknown to him.
Staunch Conservatives are not voting to elect Boris, they are voting to get rid of Ken. That’s why the figures are so solid.
Latest on the elections…….
Patriot Canvassers from various parts of the country are reporting a real anger on the doorstep towards Labour. Some have even described the voters ‘erupting like a volcano’ when Labour are mentioned. They say they have seen nothing like it in the last 15 years. “Ten times worse than the reaction to the Iraq War”. These are not floating voters we are talking about - these are third or fourth generation Labour voters.
Some are suggesting that because Labour are starting from a low point it won’t be ‘that bad’ - IT WILL BE.
Good to see Gordon attacking us the Daily M*rror. Is there a better endorsement?
A couple of Patriot leaflets being used in Calderdale. Enjoy!
http://bp0.blogger.com/_03jj78rXncg/SBWbO2nCllI/AAAAAAAAAGk/ml8EnH5Ad_4/s1600-h/halifaxleaflet.jpg
http://bp2.blogger.com/_03jj78rXncg/SBbowGnClmI/AAAAAAAAAGs/UYtc7M6nBGE/s1600-h/halifax.jpg
22 - It’s easy enough to create a second email account under a non-specific name. Hotmail maybe.
10. Guido suggesting Paddick will be given a job as chairman of the police commission.
Some of you might be interested to know that in the Bexley and Bromley constituency, there have been many problems with postal votes tearing in the post, which means that envelope A (the one you put your ballot papers in) cannot be completely sealed with the sheet of paper on which the voter has to sign and put the DOB (wihch is itself attached to envelope A). The council advises that closing it with sellotape is acceptable, but it’ll be interesting to see how many are rejected as spoiled or tampered with.
re 26. I am almost certain that there will be at least one exit poll. Last time ITV had one by MORI which turned out to be fairly accurate.
The Christian Choice battle bus has just parked outside my window. It’s open top, with a scatty-looking old woman jiving on the top deck to some slightly dodgy music. Should I vote for them?
22. JUST GET A YAHOO, GOOGLE OR ANY OF THE OTHER ACCOUNTS AND MAKE UP A NAME!
20) Martin Day - whether he is or he isn’t like Kinnock its exceptionally dull you going on and on about your “theory” ad nauseaum. Sometimes as 12) says - multiple times in the same thread *sigh* I’m not going to mention it again - obviously just encourages you..
29. Understood Mike. Was this message giving me a bollocking for my language last night per chance?!
Apologies for that.. A bit OTT. I shall moderate myself in future
31. No, I’m not Icarus. Nothing excited like that! But I am well-known in the Tory party and I (regularly) heavily criticise my own side, pulling no punches. If discovered, this would put my position in the party in peril, so I’m not willing to post unless I can hide my identity.
How do I set-up a google account?
18. There have been one or two examples of MPs, but they have been mostly unhappy examples, John Davies on the Tory side, Frank Cousins for Labour…
Absolutely and totally off-topic, but I would like to wish all pb.com regulars and guests a very happy National Mango Day from
Bamako.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/08/africa_mali0s_mangos/html/1.stm
Interesting comment from Kate Hoey in her ‘clarification’ statement:
“This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson for Mayor. I will be voting for my party and Labour candidates on Thursday.
I am a Labour MP and I am standing for Labour at the next election. I support the Labour Government. I have and shall continue actively to campaign for Labour in these elections, not least for Val Shawcross, my local GLA member.”
There are 3 votes in this election. Party, GLA candidate and Mayor. The fact she fails to say she will be voting for Labour’s mayoral candidate makes her position very clear.
33/40 Marcus/Martin - thanks. I’ll get on it!
The House of Commons is very cliquey and outsiders find it difficult to adjust unless they start at the bottom: qv Cousins and John Davies from different parties. Also the political anoraks resent someone coming in who hasn’t delivered leaflets and canvassed on the doorstep before, qv the reaction to Tony Lit. Hopefully, the mayoralty will attract local worthies, already prominent and successful, to come forward. I think it will bring a breath of fresh air into British politics.
The Kate Hoey announcement is good news for Boris in terms of atmospherics but it’s unlikey to change things significantly. I get the impression that almost everyone who intends to vote has now decided. And, of course, lots of people have already voted by post.
Talking of postal votes, it would be interesting to hear from Peter Golds as to what the Tories in the East End intend to do to guard against electoral fraud. There must be significant concern about the activities of groups like Muslims4Ken and the Islamists who control the East London Mosque. I know there are plenty of Bangladeshi secularists and Sufis who won’t be backing Ken: is their help being sought in identifying dodgy practices?
5 Political capital- I can outdo Martin Day on Cleggover- I think he is the Uk political equivelant of Obama, much in a way the most impressive political leader out of the 3 we have got. A bit green, and a bit to learn, but he was a great choice by the LD faithful for a chnage.
Mike. BBC are doing a 6 hour programme on Thursday, starting 11.35. If there is nothing about the Mayoral and most counting is done on Friday, what on earth are they going to talk about?
49)
good stuff. Just hope you don’t feel the need to tell us that every. single. day!
re 49 Nick Clegg is no Barack Obama - not in a million years.
38. Surely there will be exit polls - or last minute polls - as these will allow the various pollsters to get their figures lined up with reality and thus claim the rubbish they produced during the campaign doesn’t reflect on their ‘reputations’.
52 You’re right Mike. Nick Clegg is twice the man Barack Obama is!!
Nick clegg, the political colossus of our age.
Tyson, are you joking? - a rare bit of ironic humour from one usually so serious.
Clegg is probably the biggest cul-de-sac the Lib dems have been down since, well since ever.
50. Someone in a pub somewhere. Sarah Teather on winning one council and losing 5. Harriet Harman on the Tories not winning in places they don’t need to win to win a GE. Dimblebore etc.
45 Kate Hoey didn’t stand against an official Labour Party candidate. Ken Livingstone did.
See Hills have odds up on turnout and first prefs.
Boris at 11/4 to be 35-39.9% seems value to me.
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2110490
50 - we manage on here, don’t we?
49
I think he is the Uk political equivelant of Obama
Get help, fast.
49
Sorry, didn’t see the joke. My fault.
54, 55. Nick Clegg is no political giant BUT Brown and Cameron are not exactly great statesmen either. And if you remember where the Lib Dems have got under Kennedy and Campbell, then it’s clear that Clegg is a decent asset and (I think) will come good in an election campaign.
With a bit of effort, Clegg can become what Ashdown was: a solid third party leader who can enthuse his party, define a series of issues as its own, and make sure his party is heard. The potential is there; the respect will come over time.
Does Obama not say he cannot connect with the older voter?
Personally the only thing that impresses me about Obama are his speeches and Nick Clegg does not have outstanding Oratory skills. Clegg does not have the organisation (Internet) that Obama has or for that matter the public following.
You just reinforce the point that Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock and the fact a number of you wish me to be banned from comparing the similarities amuses me greatly!
When i have stated the reason why i think Clegg is like Kinnock on his political performance, nobody can say to the opposite. I would say that Clegg is a lot better looking than Kinnock plus he has his own hair and an English accent but one could say that Kinnock in falling into the sea was victim of circumstance. Clegg was a victim of his own vanity in admitting to s*x with 30 women!
43 - I remember a YouGov poll in 2004 that asked people who they wanted to be Mayor of London (un-prompted).
Both Greg Dyke and Richard Branson did very well indeed, as did Rudy Giuliani and Ken.
Makes you wonder if the public would actually be quite comfortable with a well-known businessman (Stuart Rose, Terry Leahy, Philip Green) as an independent - just less keen on a not-well-known individual suddenly joining a party to become Mayor.
62) Was not calling for a ban Martin - just a little self-regulation.
44 Mango - the fruit of the Gods. (Although the best I have ever eaten were in Bangladesh - very small and succulent, with a flesh that melted like sorbet!)
52- well that comment seemed to wind up an angry bear.
55- marcus- about 5% of my posts on pbCOM are serious
58- Aaron- very funny.
On the other note I prompted our friend Peter the Punter to provide me with your address. The cheque (rather £20 note) is not yet in the post. The eagle has not yet landed!
John O- if you are out there (HELLO) give me some odds on Gordon leaving and I may well bite.
66. About 1% of my comments are serious!
67. Nick Clegg is still like Neil Kinnock though!
Regarding Clegg - I just wonder why he got such backing. Ming obviously thought he was the future for the LDs, shadow Home. Sec within a year was it? Britton rated him very hghly as did most of the trendy media pundits. When I saw the leadership contest, i was surprised he seemed so, well, ordinary.
With Huhne or Kennedy as leader, just imagine how well they’d be doing?
@66:
You have to admit though, that whilst PBc is not a serious place, there are a few commenters who take themselves far too seriously for their own good.
Mr Senior? I’m pointing at you with my special pointing finger.
23 - thanks Baskerville - interesting stuff - sort of makes both our points!
61 Spot on, Jack. In 2012 when Cameron is in the mid-term of the Tory government Clegg with his group of 30 or so MPs will start winning by-elections, especially if the Labour Party is still trying to come to terms with defeat. But will this be more than Grimond, Thorpe, Steele, Ashdown and Kennedy achieved? I doubt it. He won’t be a disaster; nor will he set the world alight. An honest but respected plodder, and none the worse for it.
63 Boris, if elected, will be our first celebrity mayor. Without his telly work he would not be in the race.
70 Until someone can say The reason I got interested in politics was Nick Clegg even comparisons with Kinnock are overblown. Blair, Cameron, Thatcher and Kinnock all got people involved.
64. 70. If we are going to start banning people for being repetitive, or taking themselves too seriously, we won’t be left with many posters.
69. Or Cable for that matter - the good quality about Cable is he comes across as being different: Mature, Well established. He would be the leader the Tories really fear! Clegg is just a minnow - an amusing side show and i still notice that nobody has disproved my comparison of Nick Clegg and Neil Kinnock!
I would say this though, Brown is being slated at the moment but at least some people support him on the threads or try and pass some sort of qualification for his predicament but Clegg - nobody can say Clegg is doing well or made a serious impact!
@72:
Plodder? I reckon 30 counts at least as a brisk trot.
16 - “I see EDW reports that the voters are struggling to understand the ‘complicated’ Mayoral electoral system. Like it’s hard to count up to 2, right? Sigh, shows the struggle for us PR supporters.”
The problem isn’t with people being unable to count up to 2 - its there frustration that they are not trusted with being able to count up to 10. Almost everyone I’ve explained the system to has said ‘but why only a 2nd vote?’. Can you please explain why you imposed Supplementary Vote onto the London Mayoralty rather than true STV/AV?
66 - Majestic Tyson, Oh dear, I had rather hoped you’d forgotten about me. I’ve run out of matchsticks to do complicated arithmetical contortions such as ‘odds’. Hmmm. What might you suggest? Try and be generous in my favour as I only have one house. Actually, how about just sending the cheque now as a noble gesture c/o His Excellency Chief Muchlovemoney Memoryhazee, Peoples’s Exemplary Development Bank, Lagos, Nigeria.
Blair, Cameron, Thatcher and Kinnock all got people involved.
Kinnock certainly inspired millions of Tories to turn out and vote against Labour.
@77:
Labour were concerned about a Lib Dem/Tory runoff with true AV.
SV was designed to ensure that doesn’t happen.
69 - I entirely agree. Chris Huhne is an excellent campaigner, and an awkward enemy. Labour should be very grateful that they are only having to wage a war on one front against Cameron. If Huhne was leading the Lib Dems, and they were in the ascendency, I think we could be looking at some very serious poll numbers for Labour (like they’re not serious at the moment).
Of course, this could be countered that resurgent Lib Dems would just be denting the Tory lead, not diminishing Labour’s share any further, but I rather suspect that Huhne would have acted (politically) to the left of Clegg and Cameron, and tried to break into the Labour base that is still impervious to Cameron. From there, the strategy would have been to consolidate the centre left, try to overtake Labour nationally, and then wait 10 years to challenge the Tories outright through a moderately strong base in the north and midlands, but a decent if sporadic foundation for gains in the South.
Marquee Mark said earlier that he liked how huhne came across, except for the comment about being the only ‘national party’. There’s actually some truth in that. Labour are going to lose almost every non-London English seat south of Birmingham next time, whereas the Tories still won’t have much in Northern England, Wales or Scotland. The country is looking more and more geographically split - if a party was to have a massive cross-UK majority in the next 30 years, arguably only the Lib Dems have the broad spread of support to manage that. Good strategy, but they don’t have the right leader.
79 Kinnock motivated Labour to stay in the game, attracted lots of young politicians to the cause and indirectly was the father of the Tories’ greatest defeat.
If Clegg truly is Kinnock, soon he will be attracting lots of young talented left-wing politicians to the LD/anti-Tory cause. So far he’s done nothing.
Clegg is no Kinnock. shame.
81. You are right there - Nick Clegg was the awnser to the pre-cameron landscape. Nick Clegg in the Cameron landscape is now the problem.
Meanwhile over in Australia - senior conservative politician breaks down over sniffing scandal…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/29/
wsniff129.xml
81 - And thus the creaking British postal system may have been responsible for changing the direction of British politics in the early 21st century.
unbroken link; http://tinyurl.com/66gy5e
Nick Clegg - The Lib Dems took their car to the garage with a broken sat-nav and collected it after a big bill with the sat-nav still not working but some nice new wheel trims.
He is the solution to a problem they didn’t have.
82 - I was present (as an Observer, I hasten to add)with a ringside seat at the 1985 Bournemouth Conference when Kinnock turned on Militant. It was absolutely magnificent. And the following day (much less reported), he turned brutally on Scargill. That was the stuff of leadership, albeit rather too late for maximum credibility.
Clegg, thus far, is no Kinnock.
82. Kinnock was a political failure of the highest order, and no amount of revisionist rambling will change that. He not only failed to win in incredibly propitious economic circumstances in 1992, but inspired a record Tory vote in doing so - a testament to his titanic personal unpopularity and his complete failure to detoxify the Labour brand (sic).
You could make the same kind of arguments about IDS, and they would be equally unconvincing.
82 79
Kinnock was brave and faced down Militant and all the lfeft wing idiots who wanted a socialists state with stalinist tendencies.
Although I did not like him, he fought and won what he stood for. And he did lay the foundations for Blair to win and Brown to screw up.
But he was a Welsh windbag when speaking..
Martin Day’s problem is that noone wants to employ him not even the Conservative party , if he had something to occupy his brain he would not spend all his time saying the same thing on here time and time again .
The Comres detailed data is very good for the LibDems , the 108 people who say they voted LibDem in 2005 grows to 139 ( 141 after weighting ) now . There is still a small movement from LibDem to Con of 9 voters but a movement of 20 from Labour to LibDem . ICM weighting would have given a published headline figure of 23/24% with this raw data Populus around 22% . The Scottish subsample surprisingly has LibDems at a very high 22% with Conservatives at just 15% .
90. Although I did not like him -
89 If you think Kinnock was a failure of the highest order you know very little about UK politics. He may not have made it to no10, but very few politicians do, they’re not failures either.
It is arguable the only reason Labour survived the 1980s at all was Kinnock. Sure he failed in 1992, but he only needed 10 more seats to deprive Major of his majority.
But who cares, it’s 2008, Kinnock is ancient History and the exciting issue of the day is Nick Clegg.
From previous thread. The Metro is an Associated Newspapers (Daily Mail Group) rag but they try cut out the bias and the long articles in favour of a straight down the middle short report style.
I don’t think they have a party line but I guess they must by default veer marginally right by virtue of being in the same building as Daily Mail and ES.
I’m still confused by the Daily Mail being pro Gordon. It can’t make much sense to its readers.
John O. If Clegg is no Kinnock …. perhaps we should start a Cameron is Kinnock campaign - similiar alliteration !!
Cameron - All righttttttttt …. but not too far right !!
70 - he appears to be impervious to your special pointing finger, Mr Coxall (and btw, put that away. This is a family site).
89 - I utterly disagree. His defeat of the hard left is what enabled Labout to regain a position where they could take power in the 1990s. He ran a hideous election campaign in 1992 but that does not make him a failure of the highest order.
Will Self’s childish HIGNFY performance remains the only time I have wanted to punch a smug g1t on behalf of a Labour politician.
Morus, the point that grated about Huhne was the notion of a party currently comfotably third in the polls claiming to currently be the only true “national” party. Sorry, but it is just the grandiose puffery that makes them look out of touch - and puts people off. I do think that they have the potential to supplant Labour in the next 10-15 years. I think that Huhne comes across as a better presence than Clegg to achieve that. But when barely one in six of the voters are LibDms, claiming that mantle now of the only national party just looks daft - and degrades the other points which, as I said, I felt he expressed well and in a manner which will have some broad appeal.
Rumours on some US blogs that the Rev Wright may endorse Clinton!!!
Wow if that happened ………………………
Basing it on the organiser of yesterdays meeting alleged to be a prominent Clintonite.
But only rumours folks
95 - What we want from you, old Macscallywag, together with Great Doge of Milan, is a joint ringing endorsement of the Glorious Hershamites so that we may smite our adversaries and sing, dance and frolic on May 2nd.
99 dave(s). Delicious irony !!
91.
I am not sure which is funniest your obsession with me or the B*ll*cks you typed below! 
Nick Clegg is still like Neil Kinnock though
Mark Senior is like the bloke in Coronation street: Roy who runs the local Cafe! 
100 John O. May your frolics be never ending and your adversaries be smitten in the ashes of their bar charts !!
50: “BBC are doing a 6 hour programme on Thursday, starting 11.35. If there is nothing about the Mayoral and most counting is done on Friday, what on earth are they going to talk about?”
Prof Anthony King on how the results show that the Tories are nowhere near a position where they can win a majority…?
Even if there are no results to speak of at that time, “a very bad night for the Tories” will surely be his line?
93 I remember Kinnock being the host on HIGNIFY.
It was like seeing a mouse trapped in a cage with four ferocious wolverines.
It’s the only time I felt very sorry for him.
95 Cameron is Ted Heath mk2.
BTW Stumbled upon this clip from the 2011 Tory Conference on Immigration. Things to come?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFlNyqeeifA
104. what on earth are they going to talk about?
They could say that Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!
89 I suspect that in fvive years time you would be able to re-write this as “-Kinnock- Brown was a political failure of the highest order, and no amount of revisionist rambling will change that. He not only failed to win in incredibly propitious -economic- personal circumstances in -1992- 2007, but inspired a record Tory vote in doing so - a testament to his titanic personal unpopularity and his complete -failure to detoxify- toxifying of the Labour brand.
99 LOL, DaveS!
I cannot imagine anything more likely to damage her chances. The guy has been a complete disaster for Obama. There’s nothing he would like more than to get rid of him - and to Clinton?! His ratings wold go through the roof.
105
Neli Kinnock was not nearly as funny as Roy Hattersley or rather the Tub of Lard.
104 - also, the BBC pundits noting that the Tories still have no councillors in Manchester, despite the fact that there may not even be any elections in Manchester on Thursday, and the Tory who does actually sit on the Council was a Lib Dem defector who doesn’t count anyway, and there is one who was elected in Eccles last year which is less than 2 miles from Manchester City Centre, but in Salford Council’s area, etc etc…
Cable must be kicking himself even more now that he decided not to stand.
I know that he regretted not standing when he saw how the campaign was unfolding.
As 87 points out the car has been washed and polished, but the engine is still spluttering.
Mike Smithson:
At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.
I don’t know much about the 2000 election but I compared the assembly votes with the mayoral vote from 2004 (no doubt there are many caveats) to see how close each parties Mayoral vote came to their assembly vote.
Ken Livingstone received 154% of the votes that the Labour Assembly candidates. That was some 240,740 votes, way above his majority in the 1st preference vote. So other parties did not poll as well in the mayoral vote as in the assembly vote and they returned Ken Livingston. However, of the parties it seems the Conservative vote held up the best of the other parties.
Here’s a list of the % of net assembly vote achieved in the mayoral election for each of the other parties (net votes lost to Ken in brackets).
Con 97% (19,624)
Libdem 86% (47,590)
UKIP 64% (65,480)
Respect 75% (20,570)
Green 41% (80,910)
Did not vote in assembly election (68038)
Of course this maybe complicated by the fact that the BNP did not run in the assembly election and they received 58,407 votes in the Mayoral election.
However, the Conservative vote seems to have held up by far the best.
How that aligns with your assertion above I’m not sure but it suggests there were not that many people who actually voted Conservative in the Assembly elections and then switched to Ken in the Mayoral election.
99 - Well he appears to be gearing up to damn Obama as a politician who ‘used him’, allowing Obama to clearly and unequivocally show that the two are very different people, but it’s a stretch to say he’d support Clinton, I’d say he’s more likely to damn all politicians.
On the Zogby poll (who need to be more convincing quick) it’s good to see them finally include Nader and the libertarian candidate in the numbers, they may not get a large percentage but a few points here and there are important.
103 - A people give thanks. Victory is assured. And if you could do something about “Kelvin Ate My Ballot Box” in Weybridge South, that would be an added bonus.
102 Well Martin , Roy has his own business and is not living off job seekers allowance and the taxes we workers are paying . Perhaps you can demonstrate the skills you can offer an employer by refuting the facts I gave instread of just calling them bolloc*s
106. It’s George Osborne!
98 - Fair enough! Having said that, I think that mantra is aimed at current Labour voters wondering where to go while their party is toxic. At the moment they consider themselves on vacation in the LD party - if they had a higher opinion of it, they might stay. I reckon this will become a regular refrain for Hihne over the next year or so.
99 - The Reverend J Wright has long been a friend of the Clintons. When the Lewinski affair broke, he was apparently invited to the White House to offer spiritual guidance to help POTUS and FLOTUS repair their marriage.
PtP - I’m not sure his defection would help Obama. Him shutting up would be swell, but although he carries problems, to have him desert Obama looks both like those who know Obama are losing faith, and also could bring a new (and even more dangerous narrative) which is that Obama is selling out African Americans by not adopting the mantle of the ‘old generation’ struggle. Obama can keep going with Wright keeping quiet - if Wright goes, then Obama keeps the unpatriotic taint, but also loses some of him base.
There is a pretty difficult headwind for Labour right now, it could certainly knock Ken Livingstone out… However at the back of my mind I am just a bit nonplussed by these polls. As we have noted, someone is going to end up with egg on their face. If BoJo wins, perhaps YouGov will claim bragging rights, but if it was only by say 2%, then in fact it would be virtually within the margin of error of Mori and entirely possible that the result was changed by the YouGov poll- this worries me. Meanwhile the coverage in the Evening Standard has been so partisan as to be ridiculous. I hold no candle for Ken, but I won’t buy that rag again.
Menawhile Martin Day- Repeating drivel ten times a day persuades no one about Clegg- it is just absurd. In fact how old are you?
Betfair has markets up now for vote share %age for the three main mayoral candidates.
116.
Roy is also too inquisitive for his own good! He also shacked up with a transexual! 
Anything you want to tell us mark?
86. Just appalling. And Western Australia is supposedly one of the states that is more likely to turn Liberal blue sooner than others!
No chance right now…
The guy is the embodiment of what Lynton Crosby identified as the state Liberals’ main problems here:
http://tinyurl.com/6l6h6o
116, 121 pb.com needs a bedroom.
As the rest of us continue to party with some odd dance moves, two revellers clearly obsessed with each other head for the bedroom. Step forward Mark Senior and Martin Day.
After Kate Hoey’s announcement I expect the markets will shift strongly towards Ken
[86] I think that this get my vote for the funniest political story of the year (Australia). Since I obviously have a very sick mind I was wondering what the UK analogue might be… Oh wooooah I just had a mental image of Anne Widdicombe… nooooooooooooooooo
79. That would make a good title for Kinnock’s memoirs:
“Millions of Tories are Voting Against You.”
Re Clegg, I saw him on Newsnight (last night was it?). I have to confess - he wasn’t quite as dreadful as I expected. He talked sense on immigration, albeit quite timidly. He was fairly vapid, but so is Cameron. He should get a haircut, but so should Brown.
No, he’s not quite the pointless cut-out-and-keep politician he’s painted to be - usually by the likes of me. But nor is he ever gonna inspire a generation like Obama (get a grip!).
Cable would have been the cleverer, riskier and more intriguing choice, especially in contrast to Brown and G. Lord Ponceyboots III.
But they are stuck with Clegg the Obscure and I guess there are worse fates. Like having IDS for a leader. Or Gordon Brown.
116 Fancy a bum?
What a great bit of radio that was.Simon Mayo stands head and shoulders above every other presenter in the UK and that Mike Smithso0n wasn’t too bad either.
121. the meaning of those particular smileys is now fixed in my mind - the only one laughing at one’s own joke
127. They are pretty popular in Australia…
http://tinyurl.com/6l6h6o
Telegraph reports on another bit of “unforeseen” consequences from Gordon’s las budget. After the 10% furore, the non-doms and the corporation tax u-turns we were left with Gordon claiming most people were better off.
Turns out that up to 7 million basic rate taxpayers will need to put more money into their pension pots as result of the 22% to 20% tax cut. Higher rate taxpayers continue to enjoy their (state an interest - my) 40% tax relief so are not affected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/29/ntax129.xml
Gordon really did leave an unexploded bomb behind him didn’t he?
Mike was excellent on KMayo’s show. Now PB will have even more traffic.
131 - FFS - their tax relief is lower because the tax rate is lower. I dont see anyone clammering for an increase in the basic rate of tax in order to boost pension provision. Total non-story but 10 out of 10 for effort.
133 - have to agree. This story was put together by innumerates.
Brown will take no action against Hoey
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3839083.ece
132. But this is a local site for local people. New people confuse things.:)
Martin day said
About 1% of my comments are serious!
Is that within the standard plus or minus 3% error rate?
Mr Smithson: is there a podcast linkage for your words of wisdom at Simon Mayo?
CQ Politics issues its delegate projection for Indiana. Based on a tight race it’s Clinton +1 !!!!! …. Oh dear !!!!
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002712677
113 Andy Cooke worked out that in net terms, about 40,000 people who voted Conservative in the Assembly, voted for Livingstone as Mayor.
A news story in the Standard confirms what I had supposed, namely that voter registration in parts of London, and sections of London’s population, that would favour Ken Livingstone is far worse than voter registration among those sections that would vote for Boris Johnson.
140: Sean, how substantial is the difference?
140
Which is why I reckon YouGov are right more than the opposition pollsters: their respondents are more likely to be registered and turn out and vote.
OT but its now 5 whole days since Nick Robinson has written anything on his blog. With so much going on politically, one wonders… Has he got writers block?
78-John O- methinks you are playing your considerable talents down on the numbers front.
The 1985 Labour conference was one of the great political moments. I saw Kinnock speak shortly before at Trafford park, and he really was inspirational.
Anyway will give you 3-1 on Brown going- the number of properties in the UK I own against your 1 (or 4-1 if you want to include my place in Tuscany but that looks a little harsh on your account)
Shall we say 20 notes? I win- you give me 60 squidlies, or 80 big ones depending on which one you choose. You win, and you will find a glorious 20 pound note, the queen veritably smiling, coming through your letter box on May 2nd 2010 as you are consumed in the joy of seeing your party swept back into power.
133 Agreed they take home more after tax - Hurrah- but after increases in taxes on cars, on fuel, on cigs & booze that benefit is reduced; add in price increases across food and energy, credit squeeze and now a demand for higher contributions and the joy is rather constrained.
144 What do you do with all those homes, tyson? You can only be in one place at a time, right?
You and roger should get together and run a ghost town.
136 LOL!
@143:
No, he’s just utterly useless.
The way political news breaks is:
1) (Mike Smithson or Guido or Recess Monkey or Iain Dale, or ConHome) breaks the story
2) Nick Robinson denies it
3) Story turns out to be true
4) Nick Robinson back-pedals, says the story is true, but it will all blow over
5) Story doesn’t blow over
6) Nick Robinson back-pedals again, saying the story is not blowing over, just as he predicted
7) Andrew Marr laughs at Nick Robinson behind his back.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
116 Mark, is it really necessary for you to behave like a Focus writing Lib Dem?
Relax, there is a big opportunity opening up to the Lib Dems with the rapid decline in Labour support.
141 IIRC something like 8% of people entitled to vote aged over 65 were unregistered, compared to 20% aged 18-24, and 25% aged 25-34. The highest level of non-registration, 29% of the total, was in Hackney.
Slightly O/T but I gt my Mayoral Booklet last night, telling me all the names of all the people who might becomes The People’s Representatives.
Some thoughts:
1)
148 You missed the bit where Nick praises GB then 24hrs later has an exclusive soft touch interview.
144. If a Tory wrote that about number of houses…..
148. Very true. Perhaps he hasn’t been able to wrestle his head out of Brown’s arse for 5 days.
145. what’s your point? Is it that if you clutch enough tenuously related straws people will stop pointing out the factual inaccuracies and admit the sky really is on its way down?
151 - More perceptive than you probably intended!
151. I thought so too
149-When the very brilliant Roger posts it is get at Roger day. When the wonderful Mark Senior posts ditto.
The only reason I do not get the stick, is because I have turned against Gordilocks, which in turn makes me far more reprihensible, shallow, morally vacuous- ah yes just like Bullingdon Dave.
151 Morus. You are Boris and I claim a second thought !!
Noticed that in all the comments by Labour & sympathisers about Kate Hoey Wembley is mentioned. IIRC Kate Hoey’s gripe was that Sport England invested £120m in Wembley on basis the new stadium would be suitable as an Olympic stadium as well as a football ground. Her arguments with the FA & its friends were that they had taken the cash and come up with a design that was not suited to that role.
Norman Foster’s design was for a football stadium, proved massively expensive to complete and on a value for money basis what benefit did we taxpayers get? We have to fund another Olympic stadium, in Stratford, that will need to be converted afterwards into a football stadium for it to be of any use. Where is the “world class” athletics stadium Labour promised again and again.
Her crime was pointing out the failures of the FA & others involved and the failure for sport rather than football to gain any benefit.
158 …. on second thoughts I dont’t !!
157
well if Dave can’t end Pnch and Judy politics, what hope is there for the rest of us…
;) 
146/153- oh dear john O rather tempted me into that bear trap.
Badly done tyson.
by the way the place in Tuscany is rather small, no swimming pool, in a good lefty area, so I can sleep rest assured that I am a good socialist after all.
Comrade Tyson
Neil & Animal. Its not a non story.
Obviously, noone is going to argue for higher tax in order to offset against their pension contributions.
But many people will see themselve better off as a result of the tax changes. However some of that increase will have to go in pension contributions if they are going to stand still. It will come as a nasty surprise who many who are already feeling the pinch.
So the worst off are worse off. The next layer are a bit better off b